TC Martin:
Hey and welcome aboard here on this middle of the week, a Wednesday. It is TC Martin, glad to have you with us here. I am flanked by the Basewinner, Mark Borchard, our sabermetrics guru and our prop master Matt Josephs joins us again today. Guys, great to have you with us again as we diagnose a card. Have a unusual card today because we have a lot of matinees, a lot of day games on tap here today. So, a little getaway day for some of the teams and we’ll see that again tomorrow as well, too. But we are going to handicap about four games for you on the board here today and glad to have everyone with us here on BetUS TV and, of course, here on the MLB show where you can join us Monday through Friday at 12 noon Eastern. Like, subscribe to the show and to the channel, click that bell, you’ll get the notifications when we go live here on BetUS TV.
TC Martin:
Basewinner, we swept the board last night, you went two and zero, hit the parlay which I definitely advocated and I went one and zero, you went two and zero so congratulations on that.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, I’m super pumped up. It’s nice to see those pitchers when you project on a pitch, you get them to actually pitch good. Twenty-four strikeouts, only five walks for the triumvirate of Cease, Webb and Cole yesterday so that was really happy to see those guys pitch well, that’s always nice. That Yankee game, what a cruise job that was. It was two nothing but it felt like that that team was had no chance, that Rays team had no chance to come back. And then, Clay Holmes closing the thing out, gosh, I haven’t seen him pitch for a while. I watched that ninth inning, how good does he look? Wow.
TC Martin:
How good did the Yankees look? Again, now, you’re talking about a team that’s what 45 and 16, running away with the division, American League, they’re definitely going to coast their way and they’re just so deep, not only offensively, but, like you mentioned, Basewinner, they can bring guys out of the bullpen that are just as strong as well, too. So, it looks like there’s no slowing down this Yankee machine. And, over to the National League, the Braves, even despite Albies being hurt, they continue to do their thing as well, too. So, yeah, interesting the way things are transpiring here early on in June. Matt, what’s going on, my friend? How you doing?
Matt Josephs:
We fire Rob Thompson now, right? This is how it works. The Phillies lose a tough game and we have to get rid of the manager. But seriously though, the old Phillies would lose today and have a nice losing skid, we’ll see if the new manager changes things because this team has been mentally frail at times. So, I’ll be interested to see, they should win this game because the Marlins are essentially sending Johnny Wholestaff out today but they are a mentally fragile team at times.
TC Martin:
Those Philly fans, they can’t get enough. They go on a nice little win streak and then they’re always looking for the other shoe to drop. And the thing with Rob Thompson, of course people are making too big a deal out of this, this is the same lineup. It’s not like he’s doing anything magically different than what Joe Girardi did and there is that narrative out there that, okay, if the last game that Girardi managed in, if the ball bounced a different way, different decision wasn’t made with Hernandez and all that sort of thing that, oh, maybe Girardi would still have his job. But this is basically the same team and it’s not like Rob Thompson’s this big rah, rah guy that everybody loves, it’s just strange.
TC Martin:
The Phillies, as we’ve known, they’ve got talent, especially offensively. That lineup is rock solid, they just weren’t producing earlier on and had some injuries to go with that. But now, for the most part, even though Harper is still injured, he’s playing through that pain, he’s lights out. Stott has come alive and, like I said before, great for him the UNLV kid. But really, Matt, this is the same Phillies team, right?
Matt Josephs:
Well, no, but you know what, though, they’re actually having more fun than they did with Girardi. There was an article that came out towards the end of Girardi’s tenure that, basically, family members were asking people on the team why does it look like you’re having fun. And now, you see what they’re doing and they are actually having fun and he’s making some different decisions. Girardi fell in love with Familia in the eighth inning and giving him higher leverage times which he just can’t handle. He couldn’t even handle a low leverage situation yesterday and, at least, before yesterday, Thompson made some good decisions in the bullpen. The next decision is Seranthony has to close and Knebel has to get taken out of that role but the team’s having more fun right now. I think that’s the biggest difference under the new manager.
TC Martin:
Yeah, and winning cures all that too. Winning makes it fun too, doesn’t it? So, we’ll see if the Phillies can continue this but the Mets are still doing their thing in the NLE. So, it’s going to be a tough road to climb for the Phillies but I always enjoy watching this Phillies team. So, again-
Mark Borchard:
Hey, TC, while we’re on the Phillies, I just wanted to ask Matt a question because I know he watches a lot of Philly games. So, your take on Knebel, do you think he’s a decent set up eight guy? Where do you see him?
Matt Josephs:
He’s a seven guy now. I think, in an ideal world, Seranthony’s doing the ninth, you’ve got Brogdon and Hand with the eighth slash seventh, whatever. For some reason, they don’t like to have Seranthony get up and get down but you have those two guys as your highest leverage set up guys. And then, Knebel and Bellatti did pretty well yesterday considering the situation. If Castellanos makes that catch, Bellatti only gives up one run out of a basis loaded no out jam. Or, if Realmuto catches that foul ball, he potentially gives up nothing. So, maybe Bellatti gets the sixth and then you let Familia and Knebel figure some things out in some low leverage situations for now.
Mark Borchard:
So, are you still thinking Brad Hand deserves a spot on that team?
Matt Josephs:
He’s been okay, we do need a lefty. I’m not putting Jose Alvarado out there in high leverage situations as a lefty because he’s going to walk a bunch of guys. So, now there’s that kid, [inaudible 00:05:52] he’s not a kid, Sherriff, who was the longtime Rays pitcher who is in the minor-
Mark Borchard:
I shot Sherriff.
Matt Josephs:
Yeah, Sherriff.
Mark Borchard:
Die Sherriff, yeah.
Matt Josephs:
He is-
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, how can you forget him?
Matt Josephs:
Yeah, he’s coming up, too, potentially. So, they’re little light in the left-handed side but Hand is the best of those three options right now, I think.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah-
TC Martin:
Thank you very much, Basewinner, for that Eric Clapton reference and then we also had a Mr. Hand reference as well, too. Hopefully you know that old school movie, Basewinner, I know we have some movie trivia with you.
Mark Borchard:
Oh, that’s going to be a bullpen full of great names. You got Seranthony, not from the Knight of the Round Table, just Seranthony. And then you’ve got I shot to sheriff and Mr. Hand, yeah. And so, anyway, yeah, what an exciting … But I don’t know, when Hand gets in the game, I’m just like, “Why is this guy pitching?” I don’t know, maybe it’s because I’ve had so many bad experiences with this guy. And when he played for the Padres, he would walk the bases load and then get out of the jam. I can’t stand watching the guy, he’s bad for my nerves, TC.
TC Martin:
Oh, I believe me, I can relate. There’s a lot of relief pitchers out there, when they come into the ballgame, I’m just shaking my head and there’s a lot of bad ones out there. All right, guys, before we get into today’s games, we’ll take a look at the tote board as we take a look at the updated standings here at BetUS TV here on the MLB show. There you have it. We’re making it on our way up, Basewinner up by three games over 500. I’m at 17 and Matt’s at two over right now as we stand. So, like we said, a pretty full schedule today. A lot of day baseball so check the times when you’re wagering these games. We’re going to hit, basically, one early game and the rest we’re going to concentrate on the little later starts here today to give you some shelf time here even though we’re broadcasting live here for the podcast.
TC Martin:
So, there you go. Let’s start it off today, guys, with the Chicago White Sox and the Detroit Tigers. The White Sox will send Vince Velasquez to the mound, Alex Fadeo will go for the Tigers here. Very questionable pitching matchup here, we don’t know what you’re going to get with either one of these guys. Well, I guess we do know what we’re going to get with these guys, not very good. Velasquez coming off the IL today so he’s going to get his start. He’s been off for the past couple weeks. The Tiger’s a slight favor, basically this game is a pick them. Detroit minus 107, Sox minus 103, total is nine in this game, minus 115 to the over. Matt, start us off here. White Sox, Tigers, day baseball, Comerica Park.
Matt Josephs:
Finally, I get to play a pitcher prop here. And I’ve said this, obviously I appreciate BetUS for employing me for these shows, but they’re a little lax and a little slow when it comes to the K props and things like that, the things I really like to play. But I’m getting Alex Faedo under two and a half earned runs at a plus price. And, in the prop market, when you can get a prop that you like and you get it at a plus price, even if it’s not your most favorite thing … Because look, Alex Faedo’s not Shane Bieber, he’s not like an ace type pitcher but I like the situation and I’m getting a plus price at plus 105 on his under two and a half earned runs allowed. Seven of the last 10 right-handed starting pitchers have gone under this number against the White Sox who we know, they crush lefties, they struggle a little bit against righties.
Matt Josephs:
Faedo has not allowed more than three earned runs so far this season and I looked, he’s faced off against a lot of weaker competition, but the White Sox against right-handed starting pitching, it’s not exactly a strong competition either right now, they have a couple of decent hitters in there. And the good thing here is, for a MLB bet like this, Faedo may only go five innings, he’s shown that’s what his cap is. He goes five-ish innings, they, for the most part, don’t like him to face a team for three times through. So, it’s a little bit less of a sweat there potentially if he does give up a run. If he does give up a second run, I know that, most likely, after the fifth inning, he’s probably going to be out.
Matt Josephs:
Whereas last night, I had Pivetta’s earned run under and he went eight innings and he gives up a run. Obviously, it went under but I know this guy’s not going to go deep in the games. I’m going to take a shot at a plus price under two and a half earned runs allowed by Alex Faedo against the White Sox team that struggles against righties.
TC Martin:
Okay. All right, we’ll lock up Matt in for that. Basewinner, some thoughts on this game?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, it’s interesting. I guess that’s a defacto way to play if the book doesn’t offer a first five inning team total. Would that be suffice to say that, Matt? Would that be correct?
Matt Josephs:
Yeah, I’ve only seen first five team totals on one book. So, yeah, that’s something that you can’t really get widely.
Mark Borchard:
I can get it at heritage but, you’re right, it’s pretty uncommon. So, I guess that’s a defacto way to play it. With this Faedo, it’s like I have him in my model 20% worse than the average pitcher but he’s had six starts and he’s been pretty serviceable, he’s been average. This White Sox team, to me, still I think has some potential right now based on the composition of their lineup. I have them 18th in baseball, Faedo with a 31% pitching plus. I am lukewarm, I can’t really oppose Matt’s play or I can’t really support it. I’m of lukewarm on it but I think it’s an interesting way to go to bet on that starting pitcher run total because it’s the defacto team total for the half game. So, I think it’s a fun play. I’m looking forward to watching it and I hope it hits for Matt.
TC Martin:
All right. And then for those of you looking at the other aspects of this game, Velasquez, like I said, he’s coming off that groin injury so I don’t know how many innings he’s going to get. And in the big picture, guys, for the White Sox as well, too, Liam Hendriks is going to be out for another two weeks. This White Sox team is going backwards. It’s funny, we’ve had two veteran managers that have already gotten the ax already this season and then, now, you’ve got a lot of people chanting in Chicago for Tony La Russa’s job as well here, too. So, obviously, the White Sox, definitely underachieving so far this year, too.
TC Martin:
So, it’s been hard for me to back this team. Earlier on, I’ve wanted to back them because of their offense but, man, it’s a hard team to back. So, we’ll continue to see what happens there on the south side of Chicago. But at any rate, we’re locking Matt in for this play. And again, if you can find this play, it’s Fadeo under two and a half earned runs and that’s the key here, too. Not just runs, these are earned runs. It’s all in the pitcher there too to get plus 105 on that. All right, guys, next-
Mark Borchard:
So, I guess that scoring decision takes an-
TC Martin:
It does.
Mark Borchard:
… added importance there when there’s a borderline is it a hit or is it an error. That’s an interesting one.
Matt Josephs:
Well, and that’s the thing about this play. If it was minus 110, minus 115, I’m not playing it because I don’t like it that much but I’m going to take a shot at a plus 105 price. It’s an early game so it’s not going to ruin my day if it doesn’t hit. And then, as you said, it’s funny because I was considering J.T. Brubaker’s under yesterday and, of course, J.T. Brubaker gives up a couple runs and that was at fourth or fifth inning but they were unearned runs so that wouldn’t have counted against the bet. So, yes, you’re right, the scoring decision always is my friend potentially if they go the error route instead of the hit route.
TC Martin:
There you go. Earned runs. All right, under-earned runs on this game for Fadeo. All right, guys, next up, Tampa Bay and the Yankees. The red hot Yankees like we talked about. A favorite of only 140 in this game and the total in this game is seven and it is slightly shaded towards the under, it’s minus 115. Shane McClanahan going against Nestor Cortes, Jr. in this contest. McClanahan, virtually, basically, has been unhittable and Tampa Bay has been unbeatable when McClanahan has gone to the mound when he pitches. Seven straight wins when he pitches. McClanahan and the race, 98 strikeouts, guys. He has been phenomenal, we’ve talked about him before. I know Basewinner really likes him, I like him just as much as you do, Mark. In his last six outings, nine strikeouts, eight strikeouts, seven strikeouts, nine strikeouts, seven strikeouts, 11 strikeouts. He is a strikeout machine.
TC Martin:
And you look at yesterday’s game, I know you said the Yankees were in control of that game, it was two nothing but Tampa Bay did outhit the Yankees yesterday and they saw a tough pitcher, even though it was a right-hander, in Gerrit Cole today. Today we’re going to face the lefty in Cortes and Cortes was not that great his last time out. Only went four and a third, gave up four earned runs and two home runs in that game as well, too. I like Tampa Bay in this spot guys, I think they’re a live dog. I love McClanahan, you know what you’re going to get, you’re going to get strikeouts, you’re going to get innings from this guy.
TC Martin:
I think, say what you want about the Yankees, we know they’re phenomenal but, if there is ever a nice little spot for Tampa Bay, I think it’s there with McClanahan and the book makers know this as well, too. Because, every other game, you’re going to get the Yankees a $2 favorite. The Yankees are only $1.40 favorite so this screams Tampa Bay to me, I like it. Basewinner, give me some thoughts on this game too.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, how can I not bet on Shane McClanahan? He’s the number one on the Basewinner charts, in all of my charts. If you look at basewinner.com, you take a look at his Basewinner ERA and it shows number two in baseball but I have Andrew Heaney in there, he’s got 10.1 innings pitch. So, I don’t know, I got to maybe up my minimum innings pitched on that to get Heaney out. But anyway, he’s number two after Heaney at 1.96 Basewinner ERA. That’s really consistent with his actual ERA is 1.87. While you look at Cortes, and he’s been pretty good too, I’ve got him 17th in baseball at a 3.08 Basewinner ERA. But if you look at his actual ERA, and a lot of people look at this, is 1.96. So, the guys look and say, “Well, McClanahan and Cortes are equal pitchers,” and I don’t think that at all.
Mark Borchard:
I think Cortes is a good pitcher, I think he’s outperformed his metrics even but I have the same priced on the five inning line. I’m going to take a shot at the five inning line. I don’t want to oppose that Yankees bullpen. They’re really good, he manages it well and I don’t want to play against Clay Holmes with the game on the line. So, I’m going to go ahead and take McClanahan, I’ve got it priced on the five inning line minus 170, so the big price disparity, I’m going to go with McClanahan here.
Mark Borchard:
And one other thing I did want to talk about is the pitching plus number from McClanahan. He’s in the 95th percentile and Cortes in the 74th percentile. So, it’s consistent with my numbers as well, the athletics pitching plus numbers. So, it’s basically a play on the starting pitching.
TC Martin:
Right.
Mark Borchard:
One other thing too, Tampa Bay is a little bit better, a lot better versus lefties and righties. I’ve got them 10 points better from a weighted runs creative plus standpoint versus lefties. So, I think that’s how, for all those reasons, I’m going with this.
TC Martin:
All right. Matt?
Matt Josephs:
[inaudible 00:16:58] things here. So, I was going to add a play, and I don’t know if you guys noticed, on the spreadsheet, I had one in there and then I couldn’t decide which one so I decided I’m just going to leave them both off. Because I actually looked at the runs, hits and errors under here and I thought this was interesting because, on BetUS, they had under 15 and a half hits and yet the RHE number was 24 and a half which I thought was interesting. Because the total for the game is seven or it’s around seven-ish and that would give you 22 and then they’re assuming, I guess, three errors potentially in the game. But I couldn’t decide which one so I decided to ultimately leave them off. These are two guys who are in the top 10 in terms of whip, they just don’t give up a lot of hits. And then you figure, with a good bullpen coming out of the Yankees, and then Rays bullpen, in times, has been really good too. I was looking at the under hits but then I couldn’t decide if I was going to do that or the under RHE so I decided to leave them both off.Matt Josephs:
The other thing that’s interesting about the Rays, last year, they used to be a K prop over against lefties. Every time you saw a lefty, they would strike out six, seven, eight times. Cortes’s prop in the market, which hasn’t come out on BetUS yet, is five and a half. Not a single left-handed pitcher this year has gone over that number against the Rays. Now, there is some discrepancy here because there are two lefties that have faced the Rays and gotten injured in the middle of their outing but the Rays are averaging 2.46 strikeouts against left-handed starting pitchers so far this year.
Matt Josephs:
So, it’s just a cautionary thing for people who might look at Cortes’s number and think automatically over. The Rays aren’t striking out a ton against lefties and not a single lefty this year. And that includes Robbie Ray, that includes Cortes in Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago. No one’s had six strikeouts from the left side against them so far this season.
TC Martin:
Right. And again, part of my play too, was that they do hit lefthanders pretty well here today. So, I think there’s some value here. So, you can lock me in taking the Tampa Bay Rays plus money here today. They’re going against the red hot New York Yankees at plus 125. Basewinner is going to be on it as well too at plus 105 but he’s taking Tampa Bay in the first five in this game.
TC Martin:
All right, guys, next up, Milwaukee and the Mets. Talk about two teams going on opposite directions and it just really hasn’t changed over the past two weeks. The Brewers continue to struggle and they’re taking on the Mets today and you just may do a double blink here and go, “What? What are you talking about?” The Brewers are a favorite at a $1.27 favorite on the road, the Mets plus 117, total seven and a half. This one is shaded slightly towards the over in this game. Milwaukee is a favorite because of Corbin Burnes, David Peterson going for the Mets and that’s it.
TC Martin:
But Basewinner, we look at this Milwaukee Brewer team, they got shut out again for the fourth time in the last 10 games, they’re one in nine in those games. I don’t care who’s pitching, it looks very, very hard to back the Milwaukee Brewers right now.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, and I think that’s what the market’s seeing, too. So, it’s one of those things where you say, “Well, do you believe what’s happened very recently or can you trust a larger body of work here?” And, for me, I’m going to trust the larger body of work. And we mentioned the Basewinner ERA and, if you look at Burnes, he’s at 2.59. And then, if you look at Peterson, he’s at 4.68. So, a huge disparity there and that’s just body of work this season. And then, overall, I’ve got Burnes still with a really good run suppression number. I have him 45% better than an average pitcher. That puts some third in baseball versus Peterson who’s 3% worse than the average pitcher. I’ve got it priced at minus 172 for the Brewers.
Mark Borchard:
And one thing that’s so interesting to me is you don’t think it as Brewers offense in very high regards, at least I don’t off the top of my head. But I’m looking at their ranking versus left-handed pitching and this is a long term projection based on the component lineup that’s going to go into this game and they’re 14th in baseball. And so, they’re in that top half of baseball with, I think, arguably the best pitcher in the National League versus a, as you would say, TC, a ham and egger with David Peterson. So, I think we’re getting value here minus 128. I’m going to go ahead and lay it with Corbin Burnes and the Brew crew.
TC Martin:
Okay. Matt?
Matt Josephs:
I really wish somebody other than David Peterson was pitching, of course, the numbers would be different because I would’ve jumped on the Met. Because I just think, as you just laid out, the Brewer’s offense is hard to trust and it’s not like Burnes has pitched well his last two starts. The Phillies made him work last time out and then given up the five runs and the eight hits at home to the Padres but he’s been pretty good on the road before that. He was really good through those seven shutout innings against the Cardinals, gave up one run against the Padres in San Diego so I feel like there’s some value on the Mets but I can’t back Peterson.
Matt Josephs:
A, he doesn’t go deep in games. If you do like Peterson, you’re only going to make a three or five inning bet because he is not going past the fifth inning it feels like. And B, it’s just that’s more time for … I think the Mets bullpen’s okay but I don’t like their middle guys. I don’t like the guys that could potentially come out of the pen to even bridge the gap to the seventh, eighth, ninth guys. So, I really wish there was somebody other than Peterson on the mound because I would’ve taken the Mets at this point but I can’t back David Peterson right now.
TC Martin:
All right. All right, we’re going to lock Basewinner for a play on the Brew crew today, taking a shot with Corbin Burnes to break that streak for the Brewers. Again, bats have been asleep against the red hot Mets and minus 127 for Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers here today for Basewinner.
TC Martin:
All right, Dodgers and the Angels, they’ll do it again tonight over at Chavez Ravine and Reid Detmers is going to go to the hill for the Angels tonight against Tyler Anderson. We know the Dodgers have been struggling but they scored enough to win last night, two nothing over the Angels, Angels continue to struggle here. So, two struggling teams, two struggling offenses. Dodgers still a $1.85 favorite and this one over under and this is nine minus 120 towards the under in this game. Matt, some thoughts? Angels-Dodgers tonight.
Matt Josephs:
I’ll tell you this, Reid Detmers is interesting in this thing because he’s only going four or five innings but the Dodgers have gone over their K prop 18 of their last 23 games. The Dodgers are striking out so much lately and, some of these pitchers, they’re doing it again, so just not very good. Unice had five, Singer got at five yesterday, Cueto had five, Trevor Williams had five. And so, if I knew that you could give me five or six innings out of Detmers, I’d go over on his K prop when it eventually comes out but I can’t do it.
Matt Josephs:
On the other side, Anderson’s looked really good. It’s a tough game to play because, as you said, neither team’s playing that great and I couldn’t really find an angle in this game.
TC Martin:
All right. Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
I do have one question before I get into my analysis for Matt because he just brought something up in the top of my head. So, Matt, when you see a team that’s striking out a lot like the Dodgers versus a pitcher that doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, at least by my numbers, in Detmers, where do you lean to instinctively? Would you trust the offensive number or the pitching number more?
Matt Josephs:
Well, so this is where I would go to Detmers and stuff and say, “All right, this is what he does against K rates that are in the same similar area. Okay, Detmers does this.” Because the Dodgers are moving up now and it depends on the number. I don’t trust Detmers if it is the four and a half or five and a half, I wouldn’t take the over. I certainly am not saying take the under but I would say I lean more towards the pitcher’s number against like K rates as opposed to the hitters against a pitcher like this.
Mark Borchard:
So, no, that’s great handicapping. So, you actually take a look at his performance versus like teams in that particular strikeout percentage quadrant, I guess, for lack of a better word?
Matt Josephs:
Correct, yeah. So, he had one strike out against the Red Sox, Red Sox aren’t striking out a lot lately. He had four against the Yankees and the Yankees are actually an under team. As much as we think of guys like Joey Gallo and free swingers that they are, the Yankees have actually leaned more toward the under this season. He’s had four against the Rangers, the Rangers are actually pretty decent against lefties in terms of K rate. So, there’s not a single number here that would tell me he is going to be an over because he’s had some situations where he could take advantage of it and he’s just not striking out enough guys.
Mark Borchard:
All right. That was just interesting to me because you had these high strikeout teams versus a lower strikeout pitcher and I know that you spend a lot of time and you really get into it and you do a great job of it, Matt. So, I’m sorry to divert my analysis on it but I had that question for you. As far as my analysis goes for the Angels-Dodgers, I’ve got it priced at minus 170, I think it’s priced about where it needs to be. I’ve got Detmers at 15% worse than an average pitcher and Anderson’s moving up in the rankings, he’s 45th out of 150 pitchers. I know, TC, you’ve been on him a lot and you were ahead of the curve there. I’ve got him 16% better than an average pitcher.
Mark Borchard:
The one thing that’s concerning, if you want to back the Dodgers here, is you look at my long term rating for the Angels versus left-handed pitching and they’re seventh in baseball. So, that goes into the mixer from a price standpoint. I think it’s priced where it needs to be. I’m going to stay away from it, TC.
TC Martin:
I was on the Dodgers last night, I didn’t make it an official play on the show here yesterday, and I think I even alluded to that, I said I’m going to take a look at it a little bit later in the day. Taking these teams that I believe that are solid and then they’re going to break the streak here coming back home. And I got home with the Dodgers but it was just as ugly as all these other games continuing when they got swept against the Giants over the course of the weekend. This team hasn’t scored more than two runs in the last four games, three for their last 27 now, think about that, with runners in scoring position. That’s just abysmal especially for this Dodgers’ lineup that is really stacked. They’re not hitting the ball and then Mookie Betts. Now, he hit the home run last night and covered for those run line players that he hit in the eighth inning. But what’d he do the three times before that? He struck out, every time. Mookie Betts, three for his last 35.
TC Martin:
And the Angels are basically a mere image of what the Dodgers are right now. It is really hard to play this game. I would like to maybe take a shot here with the Angels but I can’t do that. And the price is telling me, with Anderson, I don’t want any part of that as well. Maybe just play unders with these teams for right now, I don’t know. But the way the Dodgers are struggling, it’s not getting better anytime soon and a lot of people think, “Oh, Dodgers got this great offense.” Look where their numbers have gone over the last two and a half weeks and people still say, “Oh, they’re still a great hitting team.” Look where they were and look where they are now. So, yeah, this Dodger team is definitely a concern right now.
TC Martin:
So, I don’t want any part of it and I don’t think … Do we have an official play in this game from anybody here? I don’t think we do, right? Yeah, just analyzing it. Okay. And it’s tough, it’s tough to really make a play in this game. All right.
Mark Borchard:
I noticed you’re, oh, gosh, you’re less than enchanted with Mookie Betts but I’ve got to beg to differ on that. I’m looking at a war and he’s just behind Goldschmidt there. Or, Goldschmidt and Machado in wins above replacement in the National League. So, I have to disagree with you on Mookie Betts, TC, [inaudible 00:28:09] there.
TC Martin:
Mark, there’s nothing to disagree with me about because the numbers don’t lie. Mark, he’s three for his last 35.
Mark Borchard:
Dude, he’s got a 152 weighted runs creative plus. How much better can he get?
TC Martin:
Mark, look how many times he’s struck out in three … Again, I hear what you’re saying and that’s why Dave Roberts keeps him in the lead-off spot there-
Matt Josephs:
Oh, he’s [inaudible 00:28:30].
TC Martin:
… like, okay, he’s going to bust out, he’s going to bust out. But I’ve been watching just about every bat here in the last two and a half weeks and he’s not even close. He has no confidence at the plate whatsoever. And, as a manager, you got to get him out of there. You got to get him out of that lead-off spot, you got to move him down. We saw Dusty do this with Altuve the last two seasons. When he starts struggling at the top, you move him down to sixth or seventh, maybe for a couple games, get that confidence back, don’t put the pressure on him. Betts is feeling the pressure and people say, “Mookie Betts, he’s an all-star, he’s great.” He is a mess at the plate if you just look at him, he’s guessing at the plate now. And again, three for 35 for Mookie Betts, he is awful right now.
TC Martin:
And long-term projections, you’re probably right. If you go back to what he did the first two months of the season, you’re right. But again, I’m looking at what this guy, this 35 at bats encompassed the last two weeks of the season, that’s all I’m talking about. I love Mookie Betts but he’s horrible.
Mark Borchard:
How many at bats are you talking about though?
TC Martin:
35.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, see-
TC Martin:
He’s three for his last 35.
Mark Borchard:
Okay, so that’s where we differ because I don’t think that you can evaluate anything-
TC Martin:
But for us handicappers, we’re handicapping right now. Mookie Betts, when he gets up to the plate-
Mark Borchard:
I don’t know. I think that if you’re using a 35 at bat sample, it’s probably not the right thing to do. But that’s just the way I handicap, TC. You’re more recency and I’m more longer term. And, for me, before I do anything with any numbers I’d like to see, gosh, at that K percentage, at least 150 plate appearances.
TC Martin:
Yeah, and I’m not arguing that with you. I think we can actually agree that he hasn’t been good the last two weeks. That’s all I’m saying.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, no, you’ve cited the recent numbers, that’s for sure. But as far as him being removed from the lead-off spot, I will vehemently disagree.
TC Martin:
Well, he’s an automatic out. I mean-
Mark Borchard:
As much as I love you, TC, I will vehemently disagree with you on him being lifted from that spot.
TC Martin:
Well, honestly though, as a manager, you have to do that though because there are other guys that get hot and then can fill that role, you just can’t say he’s my lead off guy. It’s fine to go with him if the guy’s in a slump, maybe he’s zero for seven, zero for eight. But once it gets to these type of numbers, you have to and, again, for his own mindset as well, too. I mean-
Mark Borchard:
You got to ask yourself, what would Dusty do? Are you asking yourself what would Dusty do?
TC Martin:
Well, I know what Dusty does because I’ve seen him do it with all of his teams and he did it with Altuve, like I mentioned, on several occasions. He did it with Carlos Correa last year, too, when Correa was their number three hitter and he put him down to seventh, he did Altuve down to seventh. And sometimes you have to do that just, again, it takes the pressure off of the player. As the lead-off hitter, you got to remember guys, your best hitter hits number one because he gets up more times than anybody else. And there’s this myth people think, “Oh, your best hitter hits three or four.” No, your best hitter hits first because he gets up more times than anybody else. You want the guy that gets on base the most. So, as a manager, that’s where your mindset is. From a fan or other things, it’s different. They think, “Oh, power guys, they’re the best hitters,” that’s not the case.
TC Martin:
So, I’m just saying the Dodgers are struggling, it starts at the top. Freddie Freeman is struggling as well too, look at his numbers over the last two weeks. So, again, I would like to get back on and play these Dodgers where I feel comfortable and I guess that’s why I’m saying it’s hard for me to do that. That’s all I’m saying.
TC Martin:
So, questions and answers, guys. Let’s go to the chat room, hit us up here, we got some time to do that. I know that’s Basewinner’s favorite part of the show. So, hit us with some questions here at the MLB show here in the chat room. And let’s go, let’s start here. Any thoughts? Let’s see where we at today. I guess Arod is asking us about the Padres and Cubs game today. Basewinner, any thoughts on that?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, this is a tough call because you’ve got two guys with not much of a record from a standpoint of any statistical sample. I can tell you that Weathers is 25% worse by my ratings. I think there might be a little bit of value here with the Cubs and I have it right now plus … You could play the … Oh, well, I don’t know. I would say that there’s no value here. It’s just too hard to call, TC, really. It’s one of those games where there’s so much better stuff on the board.
TC Martin:
There is but aren’t the Cubs really almost a automatic go against now? They’ve lost eight in a row, they’re getting blasted. They got blasted again at home yesterday, 12 to five. We talked about the Yankee series where they played one competitive game, they lost in 13 innings but, for the most part, the pitching has just been horrendous. Give me some thoughts on that, Matt. Padres-Cubs and, specifically, anything to do with either one of these teams.
Matt Josephs:
It’s hot and the wind’s blowing out aka why we’re seeing a 12 and Weather’s in the Minors is allowing teams to hit three 30 against him. He’s been atrocious, he is 7.29 in the Pacific Coast League which we know is a hitters haven so that probably accounts for some of it. But I can’t back him and then, as you said, it’s not like I can back the Cubs right now. So, this was an easy pass and there could be a lot of runs scored so maybe you throw these guys in your DFS Labs. But hot and wind blowing out means runs and these two pitchers aren’t exactly that great either.
TC Martin:
Speaking of the Pacific Coast League, I’ve got to share with you this, guys, and I’m not sure if you’re familiar with this or not, but the Pacific Coast League has made a major change and it started last Thursday. And I had the president of the Las Vegas Aviators on my show yesterday who was the triple-A affiliate for the Oakland As. They moved the bases in last Thursday. So, now, the base paths are not 90 feet anymore, they’re 87 feet as they move second base, 13 and a half inches closer to the pitchers mound and they also started using the bigger bases now because they want to create more excitement on the base path.
TC Martin:
And I just about lost it yesterday thinking, “Why are we doing this? We don’t have enough excitement on the base pass? How many replays do we have to go to on close plays a guy stealing second base or in double plays and that sort of thing?” I think we got enough excitement but here we go with Minor League Baseball, we’ve seen him experiment with the pitch clock before, all this other nonsense but, now, actually physically giving us bigger bases and moving them in, yeah, 87 feet right now in the Pacific Coast League. How do you like that Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
I think that they need to, I don’t know, think about some of the stuff they’re doing. To me, I think it’s really gimmicky but I like the pitch clock. I’m really looking forward to the pitch clock being instituted in Major League Baseball. I think it’s going to help offensive production and it’s really going to help the person, especially me as a viewer, watch the last part of these games. These relievers, they throw a pitch and then they walk around the whole- It’s unbelievable how much time these guys are given to the next pitch and it really makes sense that they’re doing it like that because the whole time they’re walking around and going to their glove and doing all that, they’re getting rest and they’re flushing that lactic acid from that last pitch out of their system.
Mark Borchard:
So, I think that, once that pitch clock gets instituted, I think we’re going to see more offense especially in the later part of the games to make it more exciting and more tolerable to watch, TC.
TC Martin:
Right, yeah. Clock in baseball. I don’t know if I can still get over that. Okay, let’s see. Timothy Rich wants to ask us about the Phillies game today. Matt, some thoughts?
Matt Josephs:
As I said in the beginning, previous Phillies teams lose this game today and they lose this game because of how they lost yesterday’s game. So, it’ll be interesting to see how they do under the new Met. They’re going to hit Castano, Castano wasn’t very good last year. He was a guy who didn’t strike out a lot of people, if I remember correctly, and I don’t know how deep he’s going to go in ball games. I think the Phillies offense is going to do their part, it’s going to be hot, it’s an afternoon game. Kyle Gibson isn’t great. I lean to the over here a little bit on knowing full well that we’re going to get two bullpens that are going to give up some runs today. So, small lean to the over here. I know it’s a little high at nine and a half but small lean to the over.
TC Martin:
Yesterday they announced that Pablo Lopez was going to get the start here. But like you said, now they have a Castano that is going to this game. So-
Mark Borchard:
I told you he was hurt last week. I knew it. He hurt his wrist or something.
TC Martin:
Didn’t I say that last week? I remember I said that.
Mark Borchard:
I thought you did and I was like, “Yeah, the guy’s injured. I’m not playing against him.” And then Matt’s like, “No, no, he’s been good, he’s not missing his rotation.” So, I thought that was funny when I heard that this morning.
TC Martin:
Right, right. Total in the Colorado today, our good friend Mark Holmes wants to know about the Rockies and the Guardians today. The game went under last night, four-three, Cleveland wins in extras. What about today guys? Offensive explosion? Any thoughts, Matt?
Matt Josephs:
Colorado’s better against lefties, that’s for sure. And Pilkington is a guy who, obviously, he’s never pitched in course field so you’re always leery about a guy in his first course field experience. But then, again, I can’t exactly trust Gomber either and you never know what you’re going to get from Gomber. This was an easy pass for me because I just don’t trust either of these two starting pitchers.
TC Martin:
Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
It depends on where the total’s at. I think it’s a 12.4 runs here. So, yeah, Pilkington, Gomber, how can you like these starting pitchers? I don’t think the bullpens are anything to write home about. Although I think Cleveland’s bullpen, let me see where I have them ranked. Let me see. Oh, they’re number one, so I take that back, over the last 30 days. But Colorado’s middle of the pack last 30 days and overall they’re 24th so maybe, given that bullpen information, you play a first five over because those pitchers are cruddy.
TC Martin:
I think this is the first 12 we’ve seen on the board. So, this line opened 11 and a half last night, it’s up to 12 right now. So, there you go, runs in Colorado. All right, guys, let’s take a look at our best bets here for today-
Mark Borchard:
One more thing to say, TC, because I hit one parlay that I gave out yesterday with the Mets and the Yankees and it paid 2.7. I’m going to do an underdog, this is just a fun bet. Underdog parlay, going to go with Pittsburgh plus 230, Baltimore plus 230 and, $100 bet, I’ll get you 6.59. So, 6.59 to one odds on that parlay.
TC Martin:
Throwing those Rays, Basewinner, you like the Rays today. [inaudible 00:39:10] money.
Mark Borchard:
I know. That would give you that three team parlay but I’m just going to keep it at two, let’s see if we can hit this one.
TC Martin:
Okay. Say that again. Pittsburgh?
Mark Borchard:
Pittsburgh plus 130 and Baltimore plus 230.
TC Martin:
There you go. Basewinner playing the bottom of the barrel teams there. You’re going to need some serious barrel rate in that game, my friend.
Mark Borchard:
Hey, Baltimore won yesterday, props to them.
Matt Josephs:
Bruce Zimmermann sucks though.
TC Martin:
He did. Bruce is a great name though, we’ve established that before, let’s remember that. All right. Best bets today, guys, let’s go to the board and see what we got here. Okay, our prop master is going with Fadeo under two and a half runs, earned runs, that’s the key there in the Tigers and the White Sox. So, Matt’s going to take that at plus 105 today under two and a half runs as he is pitching for the Tigers against the White Sox. Basewinner, Tampa Bay Rays first five innings at plus 105. I’m going to take Tampa Bay in the full game at plus 125, we’re both banking on a big time effort from Shane McClanahan. Basewinner’s number one and then Basewinner’s also going to go with the Milwaukee Brewers today on the road, try to snap out of that long funk with Corbin Burnes at $1.27 road favorite against the Mets.
TC Martin:
All right, guys, good stuff, appreciate it. We’ll reconvene here again tomorrow at 12 noon Eastern here on BetUS TV on the MLB show. And remember to like and subscribe to the channel at BetUS TV and, of course, the MLB show. Click that bell, that way you’ll get the notifications when we go live and then we’ll handicap games for you as we do each and every weekday here at 12 noon. All right, for the Basewinner, for Matt Josephs, TC Martin saying so long, have yourself a great day. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Talk to you tomorrow.
