TC:
And welcome aboard. Glad to have you here. Middle of the work week, Wednesday, addition of BetUS TV’s “The MLB Show.” I am TC Martin. Flank from left to right by Matt Josephs, AKA “Mid Major Matt.” And of course the base winner, Mark Borchard, the King of the analytics. And today, ladies and gentlemen, the King of the underdog, Partley. I think a new segment is coming with Borchard because he’s so excited. He’s smiling because shout out to Jennifer in the Parlay props.
Basewinner:
How could you not be excited? We broke down a parlay. We narrowed it down, live on air yesterday. And the thing cashed at 6.1 to one, I made a MLB betting. I’m really excited about it. That was really fun to do, to go down there and to kind see where the value was within that parlay. I would’ve been really unhappy though. Had she had all six legs come in and fortunately she lost the Orioles one. So there was some value in what we did. But how exciting is that? Yeah, I mean, sometimes you got to, I take my stuff seriously, obviously by all the work that I do on this but sometimes you got to have a little bit of fun. That was super fun. And it’s super fun when it cashed the Cleveland Indians, getting it done and extras two games, extra innings too, that came in. So you got to have a little bit of luck on those, but we did last night, TC.
TC:
And Jennifer is giving you the shout out right now saying my guy base winner is the man of the hour, the three team parlay with the Pirates, Guardians and the Padres big time winner. There you go.
Basewinner:
That’s awesome. That’s spectacular. Glad I could help. Thank you for watching the show and thank you for participating in this show. It’s fun.
TC:
No, we enjoy the questions and we enjoy again, throwing out the parlays out there and having some fun with it as well too. So Matt, what’s going on? My friend?
Matt:
Well, it looks like for now the Phillies have turned back into a pumpkin. I mean, people ask me, they’re like “Well, your Phillies are playing really well nowadays. Why aren’t you excited?” I’m like, “Eh, because they’re still the Phillies and Kyle Gibson is still Kyle Gibson and Jeurys Familia is still Jeurys Familia.” We’ll see if they can get the win today behind Zach Wheeler. But that was a typical old Phillies effort last night.
TC:
Yeah, we kind of talked about that on the show yesterday, the last couple days that, okay, when are the Phillies going to regress to being the Phillies once again. And we’re starting to see some signs of that. And again, the little shine goes off of, once Joe Girardi leaves and guys are playing well. And then all of a sudden the pitchings going to come back into play again. Now Wheeler, like you said, he’s their best pitcher he’s going today. Maybe they can bounce back today. But for the most part, Philly’s a lot of offense, but questionable defensively and questionable in, with the starting pitching in the bullpen as well too. So we’ll have to continue to monitor that as we look at the Philadelphia Phillies.
TC:
All right, guys, great to have everyone with us here again today on BetUS TV, the MLB show. Remember like and subscribe to the show and the channel. And remember to click that bell, hit the bell and you’ll get the notifications when we go live here Monday through Friday at 12 noon. All right. Yesterday, a lot of overs, hit guys. Nine of the 15 games went over base winner. You were involved with that crazy game in Anaheim last night, 12-11 final with the Royals. It was over nine. 23 were scored. That was good enough, but guess what happened? The angels lose again.
Basewinner:
Yeah. [Inaudible] two, three run dogs in that game. That was great though, watching that. I like when you’re playing over and the thing hits early. Especially last night because I was super tired. So I ended up going to sleep after the thing cashed when six to four, I was like, “Okay, time to go to sleep. I woke up. We like, wow, look at all. These runs scored TC.”
TC:
Yeah. And then Giants and the Braves, we kind of expected this be a low scoring series. Then the pinball machine went off last night there in Atlanta, 12-10, the final on that one. So 23 runs scored in Anaheim. 22 runs scored in Atlanta. We know that the Braves offense, they’re more than capable. To see the Giants get 12 was a little bit surprising, Matt.
Matt:
Yeah. After we made that joke yesterday that Spencer Strider could be a cion candidate. He didn’t look like it. By the way, I got to ask either of you guys, did you see the Marlins game last night and the catcher’s interference? Was it a legit catcher’s interference? Because there was some on Twitter who said it wasn’t and that kind of led to the downfall of Feltner and then eventually the downfall of that first five bet.
TC:
Basewinner, did you see that?
Basewinner:
I didn’t see it.
TC:
Because I was calling WNBA basketball last night.
Basewinner:
You guys lost last night. What’s up with that, TC?
TC:
Not only that my friend blowing a 28 point lead a record was set last night, several records. The Ace’s set a record scored 41 points in the first period, hit 10 threes in the first quarter, 10 for 13. And then they built a 28 point lead. Chicago comes back and wins by nine WNBA record for the largest comeback victory last night for the Chicago times.
Basewinner:
Yeah. I saw that I was, I saw the halftime score and they were up by 10 and a half and I was PO’d at myself because I wanted to do mercury and ACEs in a parlay. I just forgot to make the bed and so good thing because both, both teams lost, but man, I didn’t realize they were up by 28 points, TC.
TC:
28 points. Yeah. That was a record last night for the largest comeback in WNBA history. So pretty crazy. And what’s your-
Basewinner:
What do you do when you’re calling that you’re like. You can’t really be like, “Oh it’s an epic lapse.” I guess you got to kind of sugarcoat it a little bit. Huh?
TC:
Not really. I mean, I kind of did. I didn’t use the word epic collapse. but I used the word just “very disappointing and shocking.” I used that and the crowd was shocked as well too. Because that impact house last night and then it was craziness just to see the three parade. Especially from the Ace’s and the first half and then the three parade by Chicago, the defending champs in the second half. I mean it was a whirlwind. It was one of the craziest games I’ve ever been involved with. So there you go. Get ready for WNBA my man, the stretch run, get ready for the playoffs. But I don’t think I’ll be coming to Phoenix to see you because I don’t think your mercury is going to be making the playoffs this time.
Basewinner:
Oh, that’s too bad. Because I owe you a Mexican dinner for the Mets loss. You won with the Dodgers and I lost with the Mets. So I there’s a couple good Mexican places I’ve been to recently that I’d like to take you to TC.
TC:
We’ll find an excuse even if I don’t have to come for a game, I’m coming to collect that dinner. So don’t worry about it.
Basewinner:
Awesome. Sounds good, dude. I’m good for my bet, man.
TC:
Food is king as we well know. And we love the food bets here today and who doesn’t? Maybe we could have another food bet. All right. Before we get into today’s games, guys, let’s check the record board and see we’re at. I took the day off yesterday and I was kind of having some second thoughts with that. I think I would’ve went two and one yesterday with a couple gut plays, but laid off. And I think both of you guys went one and one yesterday, correct?
Basewinner:
Yep. Split them out.
TC:
Split them out. So-
Matt:
Chichi did what Chichi does yesterday. Although there are two Cardinals now who are dead to me because they both struck anybody who strikes out the Chichi Gonzalez should be demoted to A ball and be and ride buses for the rest of their career.
TC:
Well put Matt, there you go.
Basewinner:
Matt, Matt. He out pitched Flaherty by the advanced metrics. I was looking at that today. I was like, “Whoa, that’s a high. That was like 10.” It was like a 10 ERA, like the expected era. And I was like, “I thought that was Chichi’s” but it wasn’t. Flaherty, he walked a bunch of guys yesterday.
Matt:
Yeah. It was awful.
TC:
Cardinals and Brewers yesterday. All right guys, let’s take a look at the board. Many early games here today. Some day baseball little summertime. And of course, some getaway games as well too. Let’s start off with the Astros and the Mets today. Astros a dollar 33 favorite. Mets plus 1-23 total in this is eight and a half minus one 20 towards the under. Carlos Carrasco and Louis Garcia are the pitchers that are going today. All right guys, I guess I’ll start this if you don’t mind. And I just don’t like much what I’m seeing with the New York Mets right now. I know you’re going to say, “Hey, not a shocker here, TC’s going to be back on the Astros.” And let me tell you why. The pitching really has not been good for the Mets of late. I’m not a Carlos Carrasco guy at all the aging wonder the 35 year old and he continues to get worse and worse as we see him.
TC:
We’re looking at the Carlos Carrasco basically of the past three years and his ERA is ballooning up from every start here. The pitching really has been bad for the Mets and six of their last 13 games they’ve given up at least six runs per game. They’ve lost six of 12 of those games. And at the plate they’re struggling as well too, especially at the top of the order. Brandon Nimmo, 16 for his last 75, Starling Marte is four for his last 20. Lynn Door is nine for his last 56.
TC:
We mentioned the pitching problems or I mentioned the pitching problems in Carrasco, six of his last eight starts. He’s given up more hits than innings pitched, ERA’s increased, like I said. So I’m going to take a shot here with the Astros on getaway day. I know they’re looking forward to going to New York, to take on the Yankees with a big series this weekend. But for me, this is more of a play against Carlos Carrasco and those struggling Mets bats. Mets did not look good last night as the Astros won eight to two. So I’m going to take a shot with the Houston Astros today with the slipping Mets, as I like to say, Basewinner.
Basewinner:
Yeah. This game was really tough for me to pull the trigger on because my model likes the Mets and I’ve got to price that I actually have the Mets as a favorite in the model at minus one 18. And I’m looking at Carrasco’s advanced numbers, I guess they’re not even that advanced. I’m just looking at his strikeout numbers over the last three games. It looks pretty good to me, 24 strikeouts three walks. So yeah, he did give up a lot of hits, but some of the hits to me are kind somewhat random in a way. I like to handicap based on walks and strikeouts, but I tell you what kept me off the game TC. And we talked a little bit about this on the show yesterday. This Houston Astro team, they’re number one in plate discipline numbers, BB divided by K and they’re number three in ISO power yet they’re only like on the board right now.
Basewinner:
Let me just take a look at it real fast so that I’m giving you the right number. They are a 4.3 runs per game team.They don’t score out that way from a metric standpoint. They should be right, at least at five or right around five, maybe 5.03, 4.95. Something like that, depending on the algorithm that you use. So they’re way off of what they should be producing based on the isolated power number based on the plate discipline number. And so, I don’t really want to play against Houston and of course TC you’re on Houston. I think that, and we kind of joke about it and say, “Well, dude TC loves Houston?` And he’s got a direct connection to Dusty Baker”. I heard it myself, it’s no B-S. And we kind of joke about it a little bit, but I think in all seriousness, I think that makes you a really good handicapper with that particular team.
Basewinner:
And I think that I’ve been saying this on the show when Jeff was going with Colorado and he played against him, he played on him. I think that’s one of the better things you can do as a handicapper in baseball is to kind of isolate on that team. Maybe it’s your local team. Maybe it’s a team that you like. Maybe it’s a team that you just want to bet on and say this year I’m going to take, I don’t know the twins and go for it. So I really respect what you say about TC, about Houston, TC. And even though my model says play the best I’m going to pass on it.
TC:
Yeah. All right. Thanks. I appreciate that. And I do find that you zoom in on a team or two or three like that. And you get a chance to know that team inside and out as well, too, when you watch them basically on a daily basis. So, as you know, there will be times when I’ll lay off an Astro game or go against them. And again, this is one of these things too, where Garcia has been somewhat uneven. I mentioned that with Katie yesterday as well too, and then it’s kind of kicking myself again. But this for me is more of a play of where the Mets are at right now. And especially Carlos Carrasco. Matt, some thoughts.
Matt:
Well, I mean a lot of what you guys said, I agree with it’s funny, you mentioned Carlos Carrasco. Carlos Carrasco has been great to me, but that’s all mean from a K-prop perspective with, as basement has said, so many different strikeouts. I mean seven, seven, 10, five, seven. I’ve hit his strikeout prop a whole bunch of times in a row. But the number is four and a half. And as he mentioned, I mean, the Astros are one of those teams, especially when they get in these grooves, they don’t strike out a lot. But yeah, when you look at the other numbers that Carrasco’s given up a lot of hits you certainly got to lean to the Astros in this one. The one concern is, as you mentioned, the big Yankee series ahead. But I don’t feel like look aheads are that big when it comes to major league baseball as they are in other sports.
Basewinner:
All right. What’s Matt, what’s your thought just real quick on that. Do you think that the team’s as good as the next day starting pitcher? That’s the phrase that goes around in baseball circles.
Matt:
I just feel like there’s, I mean, no rivalry. We pump up the Red Sox and the Yankees. But these guys don’t really hate each other. They used to probably in the Pedro days and stuff like that. But no one hates each other in major league baseball anymore. So I don’t feel like there’s any sort of situations where, unless there’s like a bean ball and you’re playing the same team the next day. I don’t think anybody really gives a crap who’s next on the schedule. It’s just another day as part of a 162 game schedule.
TC:
Yeah. And to that point as well too, these guys don’t stay together very long. I mean, back in the day, you would have guys that would play their entire career with a team or at least five or six years, and then you’d build up those rivalries and that hatred and that sort of thing. Especially within the division, you mentioned Boston and New York playing each other so much. And yeah, the fans play a part in that as well too. I will say this, in that Astros Mets game last night, Jose Siri hit a homer. And I don’t know if you guys saw it or not. And he grandstanded it a big time. He, he sat there and he watched it and then took a jog around the bases. And the press conference afterwards, a reporter just said, “Hey, what do you think of Siri’s homer?
TC:
Is it nice to see him get back in a groove? First thing Dusty said to us, “I wished he would’ve ran.” And just stone cold. He goes “We don’t play that.” And he goes back in my day, he goes “the next guy up would’ve got drilled.” And so what happened, if you watched that game, is that while he was waltzing around third base, Escobar, the third baseman was jawing at him. And then when Escobar came off to lead off in the ninth inning, him and Maldonado had this conversation. And the bench is getting emptier and what Escobar was saying to Maldonado was like, “Hey you better tell your rookie over there that we don’t play that here.” And that, and that was eight to two at that point in time.
TC:
And Maldonado you could just see was shaking his head going like, “You’re right. You’re right. I’m going to have a talk with the youngster.” But you know, if it was a little bit more heated rivalry, maybe if the game was closer, maybe. But the game was already decided. And these two teams really don’t have that hatred towards each other. But things like that’s, that’s what really gets guys going to want to fight and throw the bean balls and that sort of thing. But that was pretty interesting. Last night, it was kind of a sidebar late in that game that was pretty interesting to watch. All right. So now that I went off on that, let’s-
Basewinner:
Nobody hates each other anymore. That’s disapp-
TC:
It’s true, they don’t, they really don’t. For the most part.
Basewinner:
Who was the guy that got punched in the fac couple years ago? Odor got punched in the face by the Toronto guy?
Matt:
That was many years ago. Yeah. It was Batista. Jose barista punched Odor in the face.
Basewinner:
Yeah. But they don’t like Odor in Toronto. Because every time the guy got up last, he placed for the Orioles now, they were on his case big time. Maybe it’s not as prevalent as it used to be, but there was still some spots where guys get fired up at each other.
TC:
That’s nice.
Basewinner:
I don’t like, personally, TC. I hate it when they’re guy hits a double and the guy’s over there, patting him on the back. It’s like, “Come on, man.” You guys want to win or what? Don’t you know, I have money on this game?
TC:
Yeah. How about the detailed conversations? The buddy buddy step at first base. Every time the guy comes on. Hey, “what’s up man? Yeah.” We’re laughing. We’re joking. It’s like, “Wait a minute, man. I got a four, four game here. We got action on this game. Don’t be buddy buddy.”
Basewinner:
Man. It’s terrible. No, it’s like you got a five inning game and the guy hits the double to lose your bet. And the short stop goes up. There starts patting him on the bag. Nice hit. Yeah. Okay. Really? That’s fun.
TC:
You can tell these guys don’t have action on the games. So there you go. All right lock me in with the Astros today. Take a shot to see if they can do a brief two game sweep of the Mets here today. Astros minus one 33. All right. Yankees and Tampa Bay have been talking a lot about this matchup over the last couple days here. Jordan Montgomery, going for the Yankees today. Shane Baz going for Tampa Bay. Yes. The sometimes opener sometimes starter the 23 year old youngster going for the raise here in the Yankees. Finally get the streak, I guess, snapped yesterday as Tampa Bay came up. Big Yankees were dollar 40 favorite here today. Matt, some thoughts on Yankees and Rays.
Matt:
So I did play something in this game. One of the other sports books that I used put up an obscene number. I took under five and a half strikeouts for Jordan Montgomery, not a single left-handed pitchers had more than five strikeouts against them. We saw Cortes yesterday. He got rocked in. It’s really weird. Because last year the Rays were terrible against Lefties and we used to pump the overs on their K-props over and over again. And now this year they’re averaging less than three strikeouts against left-handed starting pitchers this season. So I took the under five and eight. Now the juices obscene. That’s why you got to make these bets at like 8:00 AM in the morning. But you look at Montgomery. The one thing that’s kind of concerning for me, or at least is good for him is they’re letting him go deeper.
Matt:
Montgomery used to be a guy, it’s like they didn’t let him face the third time through the order. Now the last couple starts six innings, seven innings, six and a third. So they’re letting him go deeper still. I don’t think he’s going to strike out as many Rays here. The problem is I don’t think Tampa’s going to score. Like I don’t trust anybody in their offense right now, at least until Wanda Franco comes back. I know we’ve had the injuries. I do like Shane Baz. I think Shane Baz is pretty good. He’s coming off that start against the Orioles in Baltimore. Although the Baltimore struggles against Lefties. I think Baz is going to be pretty good at holding him down in the first five. Problem was three and a half. I don’t like fluke three and a halves. And if he does struggle, that thing could go over rather easily. So I leaned a little bit to the raise, but their offense is just not good enough for me to make any sort of play on them.
TC:
Basewinner?
Basewinner:
Yeah. The front office of Tampa Bay. I don’t know what the deal is for having two Shanes on the team. Maybe, are they a fan of Western fiction? I’m not sure. Remember the book Shane, I was forced to read that in seventh grade. Don’t remember it, but I remember that I had to read it in seventh grade. So that’s what I think of with the Shanes in Tampa Bay, is I think of Western novels. But getting past that TC, the way I have this game priced is I have it at minus one 38. So it’s priced about where it needs to be. And one of the things I think that’s interesting in my handicap is I agree with mid-major Matt. I think that Baz is good. I’ve got him 16% better than the average pitcher. But I like somewhat like the Tampa Bay offense versus Lefties. And I’m used to just dissing on the Tampa Bay offense when they face right-handed pitchers. But my long term projections versus the Lefties for Tampa Bay is actually pretty decent, 8% better than average. So you put all that in the mixture. I think that Yankees have a little bit better bullpen. I think that minus one 38 price is where it needs to be, TC.
TC:
All right. Before I get into my play with that, I’m going to go back to Shane. Okay. Now here goes another movie reference Basewinner. Did you ever see the movie negotiator with Sandy?
Basewinner:
No, I haven’t. You guys are so much better at movies than me.
TC:
It’s good. And your wife would sign off on this to watch this movie with “The negotiator.” It’s an outstanding movie. And the Shane reference comes into play multiple times and actually is tied into the ending of this movie. Another Shane reference.
Basewinner:
Oh, so I have to, I mean, it’s homework for handicapping. The Tampa Bay’s starting pitching staff. Yes.
TC:
There it is. And Kevin Spacey outstanding as the rival negotiator, along with Samuel L. Jackson. They kind of tag team, I won’t give it away. But you haven’t seen it Basewinner, but you will see the Shane reference. And I know you, you’re going to be pumping your fist and saying, “Ah, yeah!” It’s great especially-
Basewinner:
I like Samuel L. Jackson too.
Matt:
You know, you can also ask me too. I have seen the movie. I thought it was very good.
TC:
There you go. I’m getting to you. Okay. But the reason why Basewinner every time we talk movies, he doesn’t know what I’m talking about, Matt. So thank you.
Basewinner:
I’m terrible at it.
TC:
Thank you for that, Matt and Matt you know what I’m talking about then?
Matt:
Right? Oh, of course. Yes a hundred percent.
TC:
Outstanding. All right guys. So we moved from Shane back to the Yankees and Tampa Bay. I’m playing the Yankees in this game for two reasons. One is, I do like Jordan Montgomery and where he’s been lately. This guy hasn’t given up more than two runs in his last 12 starts. He really has good command. I know what you’re saying, Matt, about not a whole bunch of strikeouts but I like his command 27 strikeouts and only three walks in his last six starts. But this is more of a play with the Yankees coming off the loss yesterday. And they narrowly, almost got the job done as judge came and pitched hit in the ninth and they were down five, four, and they rallied in the ninth. But Tampa Bay has scored more than two runs twice in the last 10 games. There are three and seven in those games.
TC:
So I think that Montgomery’s going to do his thing. Hopefully limit the Tampa Bay bats. But again, Baz, I haven’t seen enough of him. I know when they first brought him up, they thought, “Okay, he’s just going to be an opener, but he’s starting to get some innings.” But for me, this is more of a play with the Yankees offense and really against the Tampa Bay offense. So I’m going to take a shot here with the Yankees today. So lock me in. I go from zero plays to yesterday to three plays today. So I got to catch up with you guys. So minus one 40 for the Yankees. San Francisco and Atlanta is next up here, the Giants taking on the Braves, the crazy series. This has been a one run low scoring game going back on Monday night where the Braves win at the bottom of the ninth.
TC:
Last night, the Giants come back and win 12 to 10 today. The Braves are a dollar 25 favorite. The over and under is eight and a half in this game minus one 20 towards the over. Matt thoughts on Giants Braves in the finale of this series.
Matt:
I don’t have a ton. I don’t love Charlie Morton. The last time out, when he faced the Cubs, which we talked about. I mean the Cubs offenses basically triple A level, right now. He gave up four runs of the Pirates that’s before all the young guys came up, four runs of the Rockies, four runs of the Diamondbacks, four runs of the Phillies. I don’t like anything that he’s kind of done as of late. The one thing I did see, and I’m sure, maybe BetUS might put it up. Charlie Morton over four and a half hits loud, is not a bad bet that the Giants offense has kind of been hot and cold with regards to that. Plus we know Morton even when he is not pitching well is going to go five or six innings. He’s not one of these young guys that they’re going to yank at the first moment of trouble here. So if BetUS puts this up, because I’ve seen it other places, maybe Charlie Morton over four and a half hits allowed. Rodon’s all over the place. He’s really good. He goes short outings. There’s just a lot of question marks in this game. So other than maybe that Morton prop, I’m probably going to stay away from this one.
TC:
Okay. Basewinner.
Basewinner:
Yeah. Matt, you’re right about Rodon because you got to have a number for him that’s like his average number. But his variance is significant. So for me, it’s kind of, are you going to get a really good Rodon? Or are you going to get a bad Rodon? But having said that, I like this game. I have it priced at minus one 44 and the line overnight looked a lot better to me at minus one 10. And it’s climbed to minus one 32. I think there still is a bit of value with the Braves. I do. My overall rated on both pitcher is I almost identical. I have an 15% run suppression for both guys. Rodon is 40th out of 150 pitchers in the model. And Morton’s 41 out of one 50. Where the edge really comes into play is the Braves long term projections offensively are 11% better than average.
Basewinner:
And I just am not that high on the Giants offense. I haven’t been all year. I’ve got them right about even they’re kind of on the rise a little bit. But even so the Braves kind of have them edged offensively right now. And then the bullpen. This is an interesting comparison. And I think maybe you could do something in game because over the last 30 days by my three metric charts, Atlanta is number one in baseball. And this just takes an account swinging strike percentage and balls divided by pitches. So it’s a saber command number. And then I have another chart that takes in some ISO power. It uses BBK and ISO power. And Atlanta’s third in that department. The Giant’s not bad, but they’re still kind of middle of the pack. They’re 11th in one and 10 in another. So maybe that’s an in game opportunity if the Braves are down or if they’re tied to go with the Braves, but that’s kind of how I see this game, TC.
TC:
The bullpens really spent last night, especially on the Giant side. They used seven pitchers in last night’s game. Atlanta used five. We mentioned the 22 runs scored overall 12-10 San Francisco gets the win. And I think I mentioned, today’s the finale actually, there’s a four game series, actually. They’re going to close it out with a day game tomorrow. So interesting series, like I said, what will we get today? I have no idea, but I think we’ve seen good and bad with both of these starting pitchers. That’s what got me off the game. Like you said, Mark. Rodon, not sure we’re going to get Matt, Morton, not really sure. So yeah, I laid off in this game. All right. So none of us actually have a play in this game, but the next game, all three of us will have some action in this and varying plays as well too. So let’s dive into Cleveland and Minnesota. And that game today being played in Minnesota and the twins are a dollar 48, favorite. Cleveland plus one 33. The total in this game is eight and a half slightly shaded towards the over in this game. Tristan McKenzie for Cleveland. Sonny Gray for Minnesota. Matt, won’t you start us off with this game.
Matt:
Well, so as I said, pre-show, I was going to make the joke, because I know you guys are on opposite sides, that I was going to take a tie in this game and then people were going to laugh. But now since I’m first, this is okay. I will take the first five-
TC:
If you’d like my friend?
Matt:
No, no, no, I’m good. I’m going to take the first five under. I just really like both starting pitchers and I’m looking at the weather. It’s not extreme weather in this sort of game. And look Sonny Gray coming off the IL after sometime off looked good. And five innings against the Mariners in Seattle. That was a fun one. Because I had the K prop under there, the books over inflated it and he only had three. But I just like what Sonny Gray has done. And I like, once again, I just want the five innings. I don’t want the bullpens. I don’t want anybody else. And I got a four and a half, which I think in a matchup like this is a pretty solid number. And look Mackenzie most of his season, I feel like has been on the road and he’s a pretty good guy. And he strikes out a bunch of guys in Minnesota striking a lot as out, as of late. So I’m going to take a shot on the first five under and just kind of bank on both of these starting pitchers who have really good numbers first and second time through the order to just keep doing that and keep this thing below four and a half.
TC:
Right basewinner?
Basewinner:
Yeah, I’m going to take a shot here with the Guardians. I finally said it, right. It’s taken me till mid-June to say Guardians instead of Indians, but I’m patting myself on the back because I said the right name. So that’s a good start. But I’ve got this thing priced at minus one 15. And I think that I like MacKenzie. My evaluation of MacKenzie has him suppressing runs 17%. And Gray is decent, but I only have him 3% better than the average pitcher. Offensively, I’ve got Minnesota a little bit better than Cleveland, but the bullpen edge to me, in the model, it’s kind of equal. But I think that subjectively, I’m looking at Cleveland’s bullpen numbers over the last 30 days and they are pretty darn good. They are in that saber command chart, which is just takes the swinging strikes and expected walk rates.
Basewinner:
So expected strikeout percentage, expected walk rate. They are third in baseball. And then Minnesota, so if you look at the overall saber command, Cleveland’s third, Minnesota’s fourth. So you say, well these bullpens are about equal. But if you look over the last 30 days, Minnesota in this saber command chart for the bullpen, 21st in baseball, so that’s a little bit alarming.
Basewinner:
But basically it comes down to a price play for me. And one of the things I wanted to talk about Sonny Gray, his triple X ERA, this is last five games. It actually takes in launch angle, which is converted to ground ball rate. It takes swinging strike rates, converted to strikeout percentage and then balls divided by pitches to walk percentage. So things that the pitcher can control and over his last five games, he goes a 4.49 ERA, a 5.33 did have a good 2.5O star, but that was against Detroit. Then a four, six and a five O nine. So concerning numbers from a triple X ERA standpoint. And for all those reasons I’m going to go with the tribe-. Ah, I said it, TC, I’m going to go with the Guardians here.
TC:
Forgive us all for continuing to do that. I don’t like MacKenzie as much as you guys do. And I think his numbers are a little bit deceiving. Because in his 10 starts, he’s faced only three teams with winning records. And that was Houston, Toronto and Minnesota. And his record is four and five overall. So doesn’t seem like he gets a lot of run support. As well, I’ve watched this guy pitch a couple of occasions and he just, I don’t know, he almost seems disengaged with his body language and everything. So I’m just not that much of a fan. But for me, this is more of the reprise of Sonny Gray. Sonny, Gray has been injured a lot in his career. He’s always had good stuff. I mean, he came up with the A’s and they had all of these high expectations for him.
TC:
Just kind of never really lived up to it. But I like where he is at right now, 22 strikeouts and only one walk in his last four outings. Only allowed a total of three runs during those games. And I know you don’t put much into ERA Basewinner, but his ERA is only 2.1. Oh, I call it the reprise of Sonny Gray. And I do like Minnesota where they’re at right now, offensively, especially the most healthy they’ve been all season long. So I like Minnesota in this shot against Cleveland. So we’re all on this game. Varying departments here. Let’s start with Matt and lock him in. He’s going to go with the prop play here. And that is the first five under four and a half runs in this game minus one 15. So first five under four and a half. I’m going to go with the twins, lay the one 48. BaseWinner’s going to take the plus money and take Cleveland plus one 33.
TC:
So we’ll see how, how all this goes, but would not surprise me how this thing goes. And I think two to the three of us could probably end up cashing in this game, which two? I’m really not sure, but I think it will probably come down to the pitching near in this game. All right, next up, Seattle and Oakland. George Kirby, going for the Mariners today and guess who? Paul Blackburn? That’s right for the Oakland, a Seattle minus one 32. Seven is the total in this game minus one, 20 shaded towards the over in this one. Basewinner take it away your Seattle Mariners against your Paul Black Blackburn.
Basewinner:
Yeah. It’s Paul Blackburn day here and I’ve got this game.
TC:
You’ve been wait for this one, haven’t you?
Basewinner:
I’ve well, you know what? This Blackburn’s been so lucky. I was looking at his game log and I bet him against Seattle. The last time he played against Seattle, he had five walks and two strikeouts. He had expected ERA of over eight yet they won the game. I think that I should get a win for that based on that. Anyway, I’ve got to price that minus one 71. And there’s a lot of reasons. I like Kirby. To be fair he’s got a 67 pitching plus number, which is not my number. It’s an athletic number. And compare that to Paul Blackburn. Who’s got a 38% pitching plus number from the athletic and a 13, that’s really low, 13% stuff plus number. But I also like the Seattle offense better here.
Basewinner:
I’ve got them eighth in baseball versus ridey’s. And I’ve got the A’s offense 26th in baseball. We get an edge in the bullpen as well. The relief pitching the A’s are absolute the worst team on that three metric chart overall in baseball and Seattle’s number one. So it’s the best bullpen by that saber command chart versus the worst bullpen. But let’s just talk a little bit about Paul Blackburn because I want to just kind of tell everybody how lucky this guy is. So I’ve got this luck chart and it takes in three luck factors left on base percentage home run to fly ball percentage and batting average of balls in play. And the guys in the 87th percentile. So the higher you are, the luckier. You are the 87th percentile and left on base percentage. He’s in the 91st percentile in home runs to fly balls.
Basewinner:
He’s only given up 5.5% home runs to fly balls and then batting average of balls in play. He’s not quite as lucky in that he’s in the 67th percentile. But anyway, overall his luck number 82 percentile that puts him the 12th luckiest pitcher out of 171 guys. And boy, this guy, if you look at his triple X ERA in his last five starts 7.19. He did have a good start against Houston at home. That’s when he got lit up. Which is interesting because the underlying metrics were the best in that particular start. But 7.19, 3.39 4.92, 5.97 and 4.98. So I’m betting against Blackburn again. I guess he looks good from a win loss standpoint. But that’s about all he looks good on because all the other numbers show that this guy’s the luckiest man in baseball. So his luck’s going to run out tonight, hopefully TC.
TC:
So you’re telling me that you have now added a luck column to your spreadsheet. We have that now we’ve added enough.
Basewinner:
Because I’ve been talking about these luck metrics and bat-. They should always revert to the mean for the most part. There’s some things that pitchers can control. So there it’s not pure luck, but it’s a good indication. So yeah, I wanted to put that in there because I want to play against these guys that have been lucky. I want to play on the guys who have, who have been unlucky. Because it usually reverts back to the mean, TC.
TC:
What I also got onto this, Matt, was he had now has a triple X rating. I mean, that’s a movie rating there.
Basewinner:
I mean, well you know TC because the expected ERA I have that’s based on.
TC:
Triple X. What are you watching along there based after these games late night?
Basewinner:
I don’t know, man. It’s top secret information because that gets granular. So I had to distinguish between X, ERA. I couldn’t have two X ERAs. So I made that a triple XCR because it gets a little bit more hardcore, I guess you can say.
TC:
Very nice. All right. You know, Jeff is just missing this show here. He would love to comment on this.
Basewinner:
I think he’d punch me across the screen.
TC:
Well triple X
Matt:
I could play the role of Jeff. I mean, this is my problem with analytic people and analytics in general is that we could just make up these formulas and then just spout them out. And look you, Paul Blackburn, you might be right in terms of the luck thing, but luck doesn’t have to necessarily run out. What was it? Was it last year or two years ago when the Mariners were winning games, despite a losing run differential or whatever it was. But I don’t like Paul Blackburn. I don’t like Oakland’s offense. I played Kirby under two and a half runs allow because it’s one of those bets that Oakland is just not scoring right now. And I don’t love Kirby, but the Oakland athletics offense is terrible. So if you’re getting a pitcher that’s too lucky, an offense that stinks.
Matt:
But the problem is I can’t trust Seattle. Seattle’s one of these teams that they’re not great. They’re mediocre, no matter what kind of numbers you tell me, they’re just not a great team. So, and Kirby on the road worries me a little bit. So I have more power to you, but I mean the Martin Perez thing, he keeps pitching well and you keep losing on him to some extent. So at some point you might. And I’m guilty of this too. There’s guys that I bet against that I don’t come to the realization that maybe they’re actually good, but like some point maybe Blackburn is actually a decent pitcher.
Basewinner:
I think with Forez I think his numbers are a little bit better. But still even looking at last night’s game, he was better than average in last night’s game, but not spectacular. I think Philadelphia had left a lot of guys on base and that could have that could have went either way. But I see Perez a little. I know he’s villain number two. But I see him a little bit better than Blackburn, but there are two villains. But Blackburn’s numbers just they’re awful. Like Perez there’s some redeeming stuff within those, both the triple X ERA and the X ERA there’s some redeeming stuff there. Blackburn has very little.
TC:
Except in the win column. And again, kind of subsided a little bit, but again earlier on, I mean Blackburn he was garnishing wins even though it wasn’t maybe pretty. But now it’s hard for him even when he does pitch semi decently, he’s not getting the run support at all. So we’re locking Basewinner in again, once again, a play on Seattle against Paul Blackburn. Minus one 32 today Basewinner and good luck on that. All right. Questions hit us on the chat room here. Any games we’ve talked about, any games that we didn’t hit on, that you were interested in. Let’s fire away here on the MLB show. So hit us here on questions. Let’s go and we’ll try to get to as many as we possibly can hear guys. Let’s start with Mark. Mark Holmes, our good friend, thoughts on Boston and the Tigers, the total in this game, Matt?
Matt:
I mean, I’ll say this. I played in another place over one and a half runs for the Tigers. I think Riley Green coming up has kind of given them the same energy that Adley Rutschman gave the Orioles, that O’Neil cruise is giving to the Pirates. I think their lineup to at least a smaller sample size, but their lineup has started to do well. I don’t know about what your numbers say Basewinner, but like I think Mark Michael, Michael Walker is not very good. And it was over one and a half for the first five. I think the Tigers are going to score some runs. They did see him once already, way back early on the season. They scored one on him in like four in innings and change. I think the Tigers could contribute here to a total. The problem is how good will Skubal will be on the road? Can he hold down the Red Sox? It would be a lean towards the under. But I know the only thing I played officially in that was over one and half runs for the Tigers in the first five Inns. Because I just don’t think Walker is very good.
TC:
Basewinner?
Basewinner:
Yeah. This game actually put in a par-. I played it straight too. Skubal’s numbers are pretty good as analytics. He’s a better pitcher. Walker, I’m not as bearish as Matt is on. I have him 5% better than average. But anyway, you put it in the mixer. I’ve got the Tigers, a slight favorite here at minus one o four. So I think that’s probably where you go on this. I put it in a parlay with Cleveland, Detroit and Cleveland risk. One to win 4.3. That’s kind of how I put it out overnight yesterday.
TC:
Any opinion guys on maybe the White Sox on the first five today?
Basewinner:
Ah, I don’t know. I think the full game, I’ve got priced at Toronto minus one 13. My numbers are higher on Stripling though. I really like him. I know that like sometimes like maybe he’s got some hard hit problems, but that doesn’t really go into the triple X rating or the X rating. But I like Giolito too. I think offensively Toronto’s a better team. It depends on what kind of price you’re going to get. I can tell you what I have at price for the full game. Minus one 13 at Toronto.
TC:
Matt, you got any thoughts on this game? Blue Jays and the White Sox, Stripling and Giolito today.
Matt:
I don’t like Giolito at all. I mean, he’s given up a boatload of runs the last four starts. He gave up six runs to the Blue Jays in Toronto at the end of the month, last month. And I’m looking now, no Tim Anderson in the lineup. No A.J. Pollock, no Gavin Sheets and no George Springer in the Toronto live. I would lean towards Toronto. I don’t mind Stripling, but it would only be a first five. I would lean to Toronto if I played anything. I don’t have anything in this game, but I would lean to Toronto, first five.
TC:
You guys might remember I went against Giolito winning, they played the Astros in his last start and got bombed. Giolito’s been downright awful. He’s given up 20 runs in his last four starts. So he’s definitely a go against for me. And especially with Toronto. And the only reason I did not play Toronto because I’m not a Stripling guy at all. I just think he is so hittable. But if I had to play this game, yeah, I think I would take a shot with the Blue Jays. Let’s see, Eric has a question. He sees Jordan Montgomery’s under K prop. I think Matt talked about that with Jordan Montgomery’s K prop, right? Matt?
Matt:
Yeah. So I told him in the chat, I said “with a better number out there, I can’t play a lower number, there’s books that have five and a half.” But the problem is, as I said, the juice is ridiculous. It’s minus one 70. Now I got at minus one 26 this morning. So what I told him to do is take the under there and pair it off with one other thing. Well, maybe a Basewinner recommendation or another thing that he likes and kind of make the juice more reasonable. But I mean, I don’t play minus one 70’s, minus one 60’s especially in K props. They’re so arbitrary. A guy could get hot, a guy could get cold and things like that, but I would take the under five and a half. I can’t take it under four and a half when there’s better numbers out there.
TC:
All right. Question here regarding the Dodgers and the Reds here today, do we need to overthink this game, guys? Dodgers are hitting the ball again and again, you got Tyler Anderson going to the mound currently eight and no, Luis Castillo. I’m not a Castillo guy, at all. Thoughts on this game, is it Dodgers or nothing?
Basewinner:
Yeah, I think so. I mean, I’ve got it priced at minus one 65, TC. I actually like Castillo. My rating for Castillo is better than it is for Anderson, but this offense for the Dodgers is so good. I mean, they’re number one in baseball. They’re number one by like five way to runs creative plus standpoint. So maybe you do this cause I was looking for something to play with Ohtani. Maybe you go Dodgers angels, LA parlay there. That would be a good play, I think.
TC:
All right. Speaking of a parlay, Jason wants to know some thoughts on Blue Jays, Marlins, D-backs. Let’s analyze that one. Start with you, Matt.
Matt:
Well, let me go back for a second. The only reason why I don’t love the Dodgers here is kind of the same thing we talked about with Nicholas. I mean, Tyler, Anderson’s coming off of throwing over 110 pitches. Because he was he had the no hitter that he lost late. And so a guy like that, and I know they gave him extra rest. So that’s just a little concern here. But as you guys said, I mean the Dodgers offense can certainly out smack everybody. Castillo will be interesting. His K prop number five and a half. The Dodgers have struck out a little bit less lately than they have in the past. So that will be interesting. But so what was it? You said it was the Dodgers, the Marlins. And who was the?
TC:
Blue, blue Jays, Marlins, D-backs.
Matt:
Blue Jays, Marlin’s D-. Well, I don’t love throwing Arizona in anything and certainly massive.
TC:
Love, Gardner pitching.
Matt:
Yeah. Bob Gardner’s not a guy. See, this is where once again, like if I was to do a parlay, I can’t throw in guys that I can’t stand. And Bob Gardner’s not a guy I want to back right now, especially with that offense. And Clevinger been pretty good as of late. So no, I disagree with that one.
TC:
Yeah. The only reason that kept me off of San Diego in this game is because the offensive situation with Machado being injured now, you’re right. But I like Clevinger much more the Bob Gardner. Thoughts on the parlay Basewinner?
Basewinner:
Yeah, I’m with you guys on the Padres. I’ve got the Padres at minus one 78. The current line before the show was like minus one 52. So if anything, I’d put the Padres in the parlay. I’ve got the Blue Jays at minus one 13. And what was the other game? The Marlins? Marlins is about where it needs to be minus one 84. So I would pass on that particular three teamer personally.
TC:
Okay. Sounds good. All right. Appreciate the questions as always here. It can hit us on the message board here in the chat room anytime. Love hearing the questions regarding any of the games that we are talking about or the games that we don’t hit upon. All right. Before we get to the best bets, Matt, you’re going to add a play here that we had talked about, right?
Matt:
Yeah. So I don’t know, like Jeff, during the basketball show used to take a drink from his coffee when he was adding things. Do I have to do the hokey pokey and turn myself?
TC:
No, you-
Basewinner:
No, you got to go like this. He goes like this. He points out here, “I’m playing this. Yeah. Put it on the right.” That’s how he did it.
Matt:
So I’m just adding something that I mentioned and BetUS just put it up. So I’m playing it over four and a half hits allowed by Charlie Morton. It’s just one of those things where it could happen one or two inning. He’s a veteran so he’s going to go six, seven innings. And if the Giants have five innings where they just get one hit or if they have an inning where they get two hits and a couple of others spread out. The other numbers I have that the Giants have gone over this number in five of their last seven games against five of the last seven starting pitchers. Morton’s gone over this number and four of us last six. So I’m adding Charlie Morton over four and a half hits, allowed it’s minus one 15 in the BetUS sports book,
Matt:
Point at the screen, point at the screen.
TC:
Except be careful of which hand gestures you use, sometimes.
Basewinner:
Oh yeah, no. He did your number one hand gesture the other day. That was classic.
TC:
All right. Let’s get to the best bets here. And we will add that play for Matt here as well. And we’ll recap all of the best bets for today’s action. Okay. We’ll start with you, Matt. Matt, is we all got action with the Cleveland Minnesota game. Matt is taking the first five under four and a half runs in this game. Basewinner is going to take Cleveland plus the one 33. And I am going to go with the twins in this game at minus one 48. And just clarification again, Matt, repeat your Charlie Morton prop, please.
Matt:
Charlie Morton over four and a half hits allowed. It’s minus one 15 in the BetUS sports book right now.
TC:
There it is. Okay. I will go ahead and go with Houston today with Luis Garcia against Carlos Carrasco, taking the Astros, taking the Yankees with Jordan Montgomery against Tampa Bay. And we already talked about Minnesota Basewinner is on Cleveland plus one 33 and a play against Paul Blackburn. Again, Seattle minus one 32 as Seattle is taking on those lowly Oakland athletics today. So those are our best bets. All right guys, any parting words for our audience here today on this wild Wednesday? BaseWinner?
Basewinner:
I hold Paul Blackburn’s luck runs out today, TC.
TC:
All right, Matt, and give us a triple X rating here, Matt.
Matt:
I think the lightning tie it up tonight. I think we have a two, two series after tonight. I think Tampa Bay found themselves game three. So I think the lightning make it an interesting series in the Stanley Cup tonight.
TC:
I know just, it’s crazy how the narrative changes, right? They’re you get blasted in game number two and they come back and they win in their home eyes. Hey, bottom line is the series doesn’t start until the visiting team wins. Right? So.
Matt:
Lot of series have never started then.
TC:
That’s true. Exactly. All right guys, appreciate everyone joining us here. Remember like and subscribe to the MLB Show here on BetUS TV presented by America’s favorite sports book. BetUS. And remember click that bell, you’ll get the notifications when we go live. We’re here every weekday, Monday through Friday at 12 noon. Matt, I believe will be off tomorrow. My good friend, Scott Spritzer handicapper extraordinaire will be joining us. Look forward to that for the next couple days. Basewinner will be back. So we’ll reconvene tomorrow Basewinner. So I’m sure we’ll have a little dialogue regarding what happens with Paul Blackburn tonight.
Basewinner:
Sounds good. I think I might stay up late and watch that game TC.
TC:
Yeah, you know what you should do? You should take Matt’s advice and my advice and watch The Negotiator late night. That’s what you should do tonight.
Basewinner:
There should be no, I can’t stay up past 8:30 man. I’d have to wait until the weekend to put the movie in because I’ll fall asleep.
TC:
That’s too bad because I thought you could take the Shane reference and apply it to Shane Baz for tomorrow.
Basewinner:
Well, maybe there’s something there from a handicapping standpoint. You never know.
TC:
All right. All right guys. Appreciate it as always. We’ll talk to everyone later, have yourself a good day. Enjoy your Wednesday and check out our sportsbook
website. Enjoy the games.
