MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Odds [Wednesday August 17]

TC Martin:

Yeah, timing wasn’t on our side where Jeff and I either in that Astros game. Again, they outplay the Chicago White Sox. One bad inning on Monday night, one bad inning, Tuesday night. The bullpen collapses once again. And they had opportunities. They left a ton of runners on base in the early innings. And then one inning got him. So yeah, not happy with that result and Verlander pitched pretty well himself. Jeff, some thoughts on that?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m kind of done. I mean, I’m sick of backing Verlander. Every time I back this guy, they never get the job done. I’ll take it though. I had a couple other winners though. I was happy to get that first-inning bet, just because in the case that the Astros didn’t win, at least I kind of covered my tracks there a little bit. And look the Brewers … I thought when Chris Taylor made that catch, I said, “Naturally.” That should have been a double, game over, win. But they go in and then they get the job done in the 11th inning, which was great. Victor Caratini, of all people, gets the job done. So-

TC Martin:

Former Cub.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, we mentioned that number. It just didn’t make a lot of sense, and good for the Brewers.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Good for the Brewers to get that victory yesterday and we’ll see what happens today. All right, guys. So the breaking news … where’s our breaking news sounder? We need that because … there you go. Well, that sounds like a bad horn at Del Mar. I don’t know what that was, Basewinner. Geez. The San Diego Padres … and we talked about the controversy with the Padres and Fernando Tatís. Well, the Padres stepped up today, guys. And they took away the Fernando Tatís bobblehead night for September the seventh. It’s gone. They said we want nothing to do with this ham-and-egger. So no more bobblehead night. Oh, we’re going to replace it with Juan Soto T-shirt night. The City Connect version. So there you go. Good for the Padres, right?

Basewinner :

Well, they showed who was boss there. Too bad they’re on the hook for 20-plus million per year.

TC Martin:

Yeah. There you go. So no bobblehead for you, Tatís. All right. Good. All right, guys, we’re going to handicap six games here today. So let’s dive into it. First look at the record board. Get all caught up to date with that. There’s the latest and the greatest, or maybe the sadness, but still, there we are. Okay. Like I said, Jeff split the board last night, had a couple winners. We lost in the Astro zone. Basewinner had a rough one with the Padres. But that’s okay. Bobblehead or not, we get back at it today. Six games that we are going to look at. All right? So let’s dive into it. And let’s start with the Tigers and the Guardians. Cleveland sending Cal Quantrill to the mound … Daniel Norris going for the Tigers. Norris back with Detroit. He was there for six years as their pitcher, went to the Cubs. Cubs got rid of him. And he’s back with the Detroit because they have such a depleted pitching staff. But we’ve got Cleveland, a $2 favorite in this game. Basewinner, what do you think?

Basewinner :

Yeah, I’m going to go with the Guardians here. Norris, they got from the trash heap. He’s really bad. Detroit, I think, has used like 14 or 15 starters. They’ve not only been awful, but they’ve been hit with injury bad luck, too. So it just hasn’t been a good year for Detroit. Quantrill is hard to bet on. But in this situation, he’s the much better pitcher. You look at Norris and his walk rate is 15%. That’s pretty brutal, man. And so he’s going to go up against a team that I think is a very good team as far as plate discipline. And if you look at their plate discipline, second in baseball, 0.51 BBK versus left-handed pitching. And that’s a deserved walks divided by strikeouts as collected off of baseball prospectus. So that’s adjusted for quality of opponent and for the park that they face.

And so I think it’s a bad combination for the starter versus a real disciplined offensive team. And then if you look at Detroit’s offense, they’re worst in BBK, both versus righties versus lefties … last in baseball. They’re last in baseball in my offensive ratings in the model. They have 87 weighted runs create a plus number, which is 13% worse than average. Detroit’s bullpen isn’t awful. That’s the one good thing that you could say about Detroit’s team is their bullpen is not too bad. But Cleveland is a better bullpen. So the way I have this priced is minus 2.24. Market has it at like minus 2.05. And there’s some ancillary things that I like as well. And I’m going to go ahead and put this in a parlay. We’re going to play it with the Giants. So we’ll talk about that one later, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. Quantrill has been good his last two starts. Hard to back him, like you said, but in this situation that the Tiger’s pitching staff totally depleted here. So I see where you’re going. I like where you’re going with that. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. If I’m imaginary looking at this number, I’d put it at like 1.75. I mean, Cal Quantrill is a fifth starter. He’s not a guy that I really would equate $2 with, especially with a Guardian group that just is so bad against left-handed pitching. But as Mark alluded to, Daniel Norris is a bullpen guy, right? He’s made to come in and pitch an inning. I mean, he did pitch four and two-thirds last time out, what was good. And did have a couple of walks as he talked about. The problem that I have with the Tigers. Look, I like this spot. And to be honest, if I played it, I would almost lean Detroit just because of the bullpen and just, I don’t really like Quantrill and I don’t like the Cleveland Indians against left-handed pitching. But this Tiger’s offense just makes it really hard to back them as an underdog. And we’ve talked about this TC, you, and Scott, and I, and even Mark. You’re not going to make a lot of money betting a dollar 85 dogs right now.

I mean, I’m sure Detroit will actually have some pretty good pitching here, but this putrid, atrocious, pathetic, pedestrian offense won’t score. And that’s my knock with them. I’ve had them in a couple spots where I like them as a dog, but I just can’t get behind their offense.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

So I’m not on this one.

TC Martin:

All right, we’re going to put Basewinner down for the Cleveland Guardians in this game. He’s going to lock it up into a parlay. That’ll shorten his juice and actually get a little plus money back. We’ll talk about the second leg here in a minute. All right, next up, guys, the Mets, and the Atlanta Braves. And I believe, Basewinner, this is our BetUS game of the day. There you go. I think. Max Scherzer, or Mad Max, going to the mound for the Mets, a $1.50 favorite on the road. The Brave, plus 1.35. The Braves have gotten the better part of the Mets in the last two games where the Mets have scored one run. I don’t know whose offense is worse right now, the Mets or the Yankees. They have both scored one run this entire week … pretty pathetic. But you got Jake Odorizzi who the Astros let go at the trade deadline. They ship him over to Atlanta. And you got Mad Max against Odorizzi … kind of a pitching mismatch in my mind. What do you think, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, that’s kind of how I think about it here. I see Scherzer, I see $1.50. And to me, if I’m going to get Scherzer, deGrom, at these kind of prices, it’s a bargain. Look, I know Atlanta has won eight in a row, I think. And they’re a very good team. I think we’re grasping for straws when we try to compare these two because they’re both very good. But I have, I think, a distinct advantage with Scherzer over Odorizzi. And look, I’m just going to bank on the fact that this Mets lineup starts to get going a little bit. I trust most of the guys in this lineup. I don’t think they’re in a distinct hellscape right now like the Yankees are. I think they bounce back a little bit here. We know we have two good bullpens. We know that Scherzer is going to go deep. And this is generally a team in the Mets who don’t strike out, which you have 12 last night, just from Morton alone.

You’ve got to expect, I think, a better bounce back here today from the New York Mets. And again, if I’m going to get Scherzer at this kind of price, I’m going to play it and I’m going to rock with it here. You also throw in the fact, guys, that this number opened at around $1.30. I think that was just too low. This, in some books, is up to 1.60. Smart people are taking the Mets. I’m going to sob with them here. I’m kind of just attacking these games, guys, where I feel like I have one or two ancillary advantages and just kind of rocking. These are good teams. I’m not going to say they aren’t, but I got sure at this price I’m playing it.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Basewinner?

Basewinner :

Yeah. I think that he’s right. I mean, you get the better pitcher. You know, look at Scherzer’s BBK. It’s 0.13. It’s fourth in baseball. And you go to Odorizzi, he’s at 0.40, which is 131st. One of the things about the Braves is it’s kind of perplexing because they’ve got great power numbers. And so they’re a powerful team. But from a plate discipline standpoint, they’re kind of like in the bottom 10 of baseball. Twenty-fifth versus right-handed pitching. Twenty-second versus left-handed pitching. And I don’t know, I don’t think that bears favorable in most conditions. They seem to be the exception to the rule, though. One of the things I think that for me, and I put it out on the chart yesterday as a play, but the price got out of hand. I have it priced at minus 1.44. And I think that that’s probably a fair price.

One thing that I would be inclined to not play the Mets is the bullpen. I think Atlanta’s bullpen is better. I think they can locate the pitches better. I have them second in baseball. I’ve got the Mets ninth in baseball. Not to say the Mets don’t have a good bullpen because they do, but it’s just not as elite as that Atlanta bullpen. So if Odorizzi can sneak by … when he can locate, he’s tough sometimes. If he can sneak into that back end of the game, then I think it’s a crapshoot at the end, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah, I do not like backend teams that are slumping at the plate right now. That’s why I got off the Yankees. And the Mets are definitely in that mode again. Not great pitching the last two days for Atlanta and they still haven’t been able to hit. However, Mad Max, I will always be on Mad Max, just the way I pretty much I’m going to be on Verlander. And Scherzer faced Atlanta 11 days ago, guys. Seven innings, no earned runs, gave up only four hits, and 11 big strikeouts without a walk. That’s Mad Max. The last 10 starts, I’ve talked about this before, two earned runs or less in every one of those starts. Seventy-seven strikeouts during that timeframe and only six walks. Control … fantastic. He’s a bulldog on the mound. I’ll take him every time he hits the mound, especially as Jeff talked about, at this price.

As far as Odorizzi, guys, after he got traded, he gave up 14 hits in his last four innings. And he has had two starts now with the Braves. He’s gone four innings in each one of those. One of those, actually against the Mets where he gave up two earned runs, six hits, three walks in that game, and only four strikeouts. And again, you go back before that he’s been really bad against some of these teams. Six runs, he gave up against the A’s in four innings. He gave up five runs against Kansas City. He lasted only four innings. And I want to back the Mets. I am backing the Mets. This is a play for me. I’m banking that the bats are going to come alive today. But I think this is the perfect remedy for the Mets’ bats to come alive against a guy like Jake Odorizzi. So-

Jeff Nadu:

Let me ask you guys one question. Okay? It’s a lot tougher to find really great managers in baseball anymore, right? I mean, is this Snitker guy [inaudible 00:12:48] is the best manager in baseball. I mean, who’s better than this guy?

Basewinner :

Dusty.

TC Martin:

I don’t know if I want to give Snitker that. I mean, he’s got a nice roster. He does. I don’t see him making any moves that just kind of blow you away. I mean, he just kind of lets the game that come to himself. [inaudible 00:13:10].

Basewinner :

I agree with you, TC. It’s like, “Hey, guys, go hit home runs. If you strike out, that’s okay.” I don’t know. Maybe there’s something as far as how the bullpen is managed because they really have that piece down. But I don’t know if that’s the manager or pitching coach. I would tend-

TC Martin:

It’s combo.

Basewinner :

Yeah.

TC Martin:

It’s combo. When you see managers that make a difference, that’s the things that you don’t see behind the scenes about the relationship with players and knowing when to sit a guy or pull a guy or to motivate a guy and pull a guy out from a slump. Atlanta, I don’t know. Snitker, I just don’t look at him as genius, being that guy. Is he just a very quiet guy? He’s always been like a secondary or a third coach-type of guy. And-

Jeff Nadu:

I guess I’m just looking at it from the standpoint of the fact that they won the World Series last year. Look, it blows me away that they’re 72 and 46. I mean, they’re one of the better offenses in baseball, quite honestly. And look, they have a lot of young pitchers. It’s impressive to me. I don’t know.

Basewinner :

Their bullpen is really good … elite from a control standpoint. And they got decent stuff. And you look, on a day-to-day basis, when you’re watching games, if the pitchers can hit their spots, I don’t care how good the hitter is, it’s really hard to get a hit. And so they’re able to do that. And I think that the bullpen is either number one or number two. I like the Seattle bullpen too. But that to me is what’s going to power them or not power them through a playoff run, Jeff. But to answer your question, Jeff, I think the two coaches for me that are kind of my personal favorites, Kevin Cash from the Rays and then Kapler for the Giants. I think that those guys can make the moves. They understand the numbers and they’re not afraid to use them. That’s why those two are my favorite personally, Jeff.

TC Martin:

You got to remember too, guys, Atlanta was under the radar last year and they surprised a lot of people. They were not the favorites to win the World Series. They weren’t even really favorites to win their division, but they get a lot of these victories because of the division they’re in. I mean, they have a lot of wins against bad teams in that division. And this Atlanta team, they’re still a big swing and miss type of … they’re not a team that just blows you away offensively, but they get the job done. They get it done quietly. I like this Braves team, but do I think that they’re going to repeat again this year? I don’t think so.

Jeff Nadu:

TC, you seem just a little salty that statistically, they’re significantly better than the Astros offensively.

Basewinner :

Well, no, I think that TC makes a good point. I mean, they’re swing and miss. And if you look at like whatever happened to Jorge-

TC Martin:

I’m not salty at all, Jeff. I don’t know where you’re getting that one.

Basewinner :

Whatever happened to Jorge Soler? I mean, the guy hits just a bomb that I think it’s still traveling in Houston. But I mean, the guy was just guessing the pitch. I think TC makes a good point as far as their plate discipline. It could be their [inaudible 00:16:08], you know? So …

TC Martin:

Yeah. And how much are they going to miss Max Fried? We’ll see down the stretch as well too because he’s currently injured. But yeah, so Jeff and I are going to be on the Mets here. We like Mad Max. Hopefully, Mad Max gives us a good solid eight innings and the bullpen doesn’t blow it. Good price here. We’ll take the Mets minus 1.50. Next up … Colorado in St. Louis, guys … Basewinner’s main man, Germán Márquez. Hopefully, Germán will not be the mon tonight going against Jordan Montgomery who gets traded from the Yankees over to the Cardinals. Cardinals, a $2 favorite in this one. Wait a minute. What happened here? It was 1.70 last night. Here comes the steam. Here comes a juice … total in this one is seven minus 1.15 towards the over in this game. Montgomery, guys, since getting traded has given up no earned runs in his couple starts here with the Cardinal. Six hits, nine strikeouts, in 11 innings pitched. Two starts were against Milwaukee and against the Yankees … against traditionally good bats in that lineup.

But St. Louis is playing great right now. They’re more healthy than they have been at any point in time. This year they’ve won 11 of their last 14 games. They had a seven-game win streak factored in there as well, too. And as far as Márquez go, and Mark, you got probably some thoughts on this, he’s pitched mainly at home. His splits are kind of weird. He’s only had two starts on the road in his last six. I think the Cards are hot here. They’re going for the sweep here. I’m going to take a shot with Montgomery. I don’t like the way this line is jumped up like this … might force me to maybe put in a parlay or something. But bottom line is, I think St. Louis wins the game against a Colorado team who struggles against lefthanders. Basewinner?

Basewinner :

Yeah, this is a tough one for me because the model says there’s value with Colorado. I’ve got a price, Saint Louis minus 1.31. And I think it comes down to … like I’ve got Germán, not necessarily the mon, but he’s a league average pitcher and I’ve got Montgomery a little bit better than league average. There’s a significant advantage for the Cardinals in the bullpen and the offense is better. I think what kept me off a game as far as from betting the Rockies is you look at these guys’ BBK numbers and Montgomery’s 42nd in baseball, 0.25, and Germán, from a BBK standpoint, is not the mon. He is 0.42, 141st in baseball. And then if you look at like plate discipline numbers, Colorado is down at the bottom, and this is adjusted. This is why I like using these adjusted stats because it takes account the park effects, which are huge in Colorado. But even doing that, they are number 23rd versus right-handed pitching number 26 versus left-handed pitching. And St. Louis is in the top 10. So I think there’s a lot of conflicting things there.

I’d like the situation, TC, for you. I think that’s a good situation for the Cardinals. The Rockies on the road, they’ve been awful. And then St. Louis, I mean these games really count. So they’re going to manage him like that. I don’t think the teams go out there and say, “Well, we don’t care. We’re just going to goof off.” But I think that some managerial decisions, it’s like, “Well, do we really need to win this game?” Or, “I kind of want to see what this guy is going to do here in the seventh inning with runners on. And let’s bring him in and see what happens.” Whereas the other team is going to be like, I want my best opportunity to get a result here, TC. Does that make sense?

TC Martin:

Yeah. Yeah, totally, totally. And I agree with you there. Jeff, some thoughts on the game?

Jeff Nadu:

I like the under. I wish I could have got seven and a half, but it’s down to seven. When you see the Rockies on the road, you automatically have to think under. I mean they are just such a stark difference on the road compared to at home. And they’re kind of like the Tigers. This is the kind of spot where maybe I’m thinking about maybe taking a dog here, but I just can’t trust this offense. I’m sick of the goose eggs on the road.

I will say this and German Márquez has been in the league a long time. He’s always been with Colorado. You [inaudible 00:20:08] wonder what would this guy’s career look like if he wasn’t in Colorado? Because he’s on the road … actually a pretty good pitcher. I mean, he’s done a good job. You’d have to wonder where he would look like somewhere else. If you back the Rockies and Tigers, I think you’ll make money tonight, honestly. I think one of them will win. I just can’t get behind backing them. And as Mark said, this St. Louis team, it seems like every game is important right now. But German Márquez is crafty on the road. I’ll give him that.

TC Martin:

And think about if you’re Jordan Montgomery, you get traded from the Yankees. And again, at that point for the majority of the season, everyone thought the Yankees, hey, they were the favorite to win it all. And he’s a little motivated right now … getting traded. And actually, he’s probably better at his position, believe it or not, because he’s with a team that has a pretty good shot. I mean, they’re going to win the division. The thing you have to worry about when you’re in the National League is the Dodgers. But I think he’s a little salty right now being traded by the Yankees right before the trade deadline. And he’s pitched very, very well with that. The guy has got good stuff. Probably needed a little change of scenery as well because we know that he was kind of inconsistent at times with the Yankees.

But so far so good and his Cardinal team and he’s playing for a very good friend of mine who’s one of the best in Mike Maddux. Talk about pitching coaches, Mike is definitely one of the best. And so I’m glad to see Montgomery land with Mike. And so I’m going to take Montgomery and the Cardinals tonight against the Rockies for all the reasons we talked about.

Jeff Nadu:

Hey, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Keep an eye on Goldschmidt. I mean, he destroys Márquez … four home runs, eight RBIs in his career against German Márquez. So… Yeah, listen, some of these high numbers are there, but there’s some distinct advantages at the plate.

TC Martin:

There we go. All right, guys. Next up. We talked a little bit about the Brewers earlier on. They’re going to do it again against the Dodgers today. See if the Dodgers can bounce back … a $1.70 favorite for the Dodgers. Total in this one is eight and Tony Gonsolin, 14 in 1 going against Milwaukee and Lauer. And Gonsolin, guys, ERA, 2.24, 14 and 1. I was one of those guys that thought, “Okay, Gonsolin is going to run into a wall here pretty soon. And he did, but he got away with it because the Dodgers’ bats were so good and his record is still very, very good. But I’ll tell you what I’ve seen with Gonsolin after the All-Star break is that he’s finally learning how to pitch. And a lot of people are going to say, “Well, that’s kind of weird. And it’s kind of strange to say that.”

Well look at this guy. He’s 14 and 1, has he learning how to pitch because Gonsolin didn’t know how to pitch earlier on. And Dave Roberts didn’t know how to use him. I mean, he was a short-term starter. He was a middle reliever. But this guy has really gotten better over the course of this year. And here’s what I like about this game too. Milwaukee has never seen Gonsolin before. So I think there’s an advantage there. Lauer … 14 walks in his last five starts, pretty much has horrible control, and he hasn’t had more than five strikeouts in that time. He’s given up 23 hits during that time. He’s a very hittable pitcher. I think he’s a bad recipe for Lauer against the Dodger bats today. Coming off the loss, you talked about it, Jeff, maybe the Dodgers probably should have won that game. No one’s hotter than the Dodgers right now. I think it’s a good spot for the Dodgers. I’m taking the Dodgers. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think it’s a great spot too. And I’m going to jump on this one as well. I’m going to play it a little bit different, but I’m going to play something that’s worked for me. I’m going to go back to the well with first five innings with the Dodgers minus a half with Gonsolin. He has been terrific in that role. I’ve been able to figure out when he’s been good, when to jump off. I’m going to return back to it here, lay in a half a run, $1.20.

Dodgers good against righties or lefties. it really doesn’t matter. Eric Lauer, not a guy I want to back … just kind of a guy for them. You’re not going to see much of him down the road, I don’t think. I like Gonsolin. He seems like he got through some of those muddy waters that he was in, and he’s bounced back in a big way. So I’m going to take the Dodgers’ first five minus half … a role that they’re very good in. Probably have a little bit of a bad taste in their mouth after the last night. But I’m going to back them here. Dodgers’ first five minus half. I’m adding that.

TC Martin:

All right. Basewinner?

Basewinner :

I think it’s priced kind of where it needs to be. I’ve got it at minus 1.79 … would indicate a little bit of value with the Dodgers. It’s hard for me looking at the difference what Gonsolin has with his ERA and his expected ERA as 2.24 ERA, his expected number 3.79. But it’s still better than Lauers. Lauers is at 4.27. You look at BBK numbers … Gonsolin 0.30, 75th in baseball … not bad, not great. And then Lauers … 0.36 for the full season, 111th in baseball. I think if I had to play it, I would play the Dodgers. But I think that where the price is, I think that’s where it needs to be, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. All right, I’m taking the Dodgers. Jeff is going to be a first five play with the Dodgers. I’m going full-game Dodgers. I like the spot for them. Think the bats come alive again in Milwaukee today. Dodgers for me and Jeff. All right, next up … the Astros and the White Sox, third game of this series. Like we mentioned at the top of the show, Astros will look good for seven innings, eight innings, of these games, but man, it went backwards for him the last two nights late with the bullpen. But Astros, $1.43 favorite on the road today. Total on this one eight minus 1.15 towards the under. In this game, we’ve got Framber Valdez going against Michael Kopech. And give me some thoughts on this game. What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner :

Well, first of all, I got a price at the Astros at minus 1.53. So that would indicate some value with Kopech. Kopech hasn’t been able to locate. He’s got real problems with that. He’s 7% out from a location-plus standpoint. And I’m in the mall at 1.18, which is walks and strikeouts pretty much. And it puts the ground ball right in too, which he’s not great at as well. The problem that I have betting against Kopech is he really can suppress those power numbers. The ISO power number is low, the home runs per plate appearance is low. And so I think that that’s concerning. I don’t know if it’s a lack of sample size, but I look over 40 games at these numbers. And so that’s what’s kind of keeping me off this game. I don’t like Valdez because he’s in the 27th percentile from a location plus, and it almost puts him in that bottom quartile. So I’m going to pass on this game. If I had to play it based on the model, I would play the Astros, TC.

TC Martin:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I used to love the Astros. I still do. I’m not going to say I don’t love them. I love Valdez. But there’s something about the White Sox. I was watching this game last night and there seems to be a different feel on the South Side, man, or wherever they are … North Side, who the hell knows, but-

TC Martin:

It’s South Side. It’s South Side. Yeah. Hence the uniform saying South Side.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Well, I didn’t even notice it. The uniform looked so bad. I mean-

TC Martin:

Right.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, it just seemed like a different feel there. Listen, we got to keep giving C some credit. That guy is incredible. I mean, what a season for him. But two good pitchers here. Should be another great game. I just don’t see a ton of value in betting it. I guess, as you talked about last night, TC, the bullpen kind of let you down a little bit. That’s how I feel like the advantage you have in this game because that’s so much better than Chicago’s. But I don’t know, just kind of a clash that I don’t really want to bet on. Should be a good game, though.

TC Martin:

Here’s the thing about the Astros bullpen. So Montero has had two bad outings when he came in. Okay, last night it was Neris. And I’ve never been a Neris fan. So those are the two culprits in this situation. We go back to Cees, Jeff, the Astros banged Cees around last night. Cees looked good for the first couple innings. And our handicap was perfect last night. We had Verlander, we had Cees. The better pitcher got the job done, got us the lead, and Cees wasn’t good, and your ace was out of the game in the fifth inning. That was beautiful. Then you get into the White Sox bullpen, which isn’t good at all. And the only pitcher that’s decent is Hendriks. And he comes in and closes the deal in the ninth inning in those two games. So it was one bad inning. So I don’t want to beat ourselves up because we had the handicap right in both of these games.

And I’m hesitant to get back on the Astros for what Basewinner said. And I’ve said it too. I like Framber Valdez a lot. But his control issues are very concerning. Kopech is a guy here. If you look at Kopech, he’s faced a lot of cupcakes. In his last seven starts, he’s faced one team with a winning record. That’s it. And that was the Minnesota Twins and he faced them twice. The last time Kopech faced the Astros, he got lit up like a Christmas tree … four runs, seven hits, in five innings. And then when you look at Valdez against Chicago, against the White Sox, last time he faced them, that was that game, I don’t know if you guys remember, where the Astros got 10 runs in the sixth inning, most of them off of him. And it was 13 to three they won going away. So probably a good spot for the Astros, but I’m not going to play the game today.

And Jeff, you hit on something. It was just kind of a quiet stadium until the end of these two games. And then the White Sox played with that momentum. They played with that energy and I’m sure it’s going to carry over because they want to beat the Astros again. But interesting pitching match-up here today, but just should be a good game to watch. But no action for any of us on that one. All right, Arizona and San Francisco, we’re going to close it out here. Zach Davies going for Arizona and Carlos Rodón for the Giants. And Rodón has been very good for the Giants as of late. 2.10 is the number here. Total is seven and a half, 1.15 towards the under tonight there in San Francisco. Basewinner, I know you like this game. You’re going to hook it up as part of your parlay. So talk to us about it.

Basewinner :

Yeah. I think this is a gift, TC. I got it priced at minus 2.55. So we’re showing value on the Basewinner money line based on my projection. And it’s a situation where the starting pitching, there’s just a vast disparity here. I’ve got Rodón 21st out of 150 pitchers. He’s 21% better from a run suppression standpoint. And then Davies, I’ve got 136 out of 150. He’s 31% worse than from a run suppression standpoint. And the bullpen, I’ve got this Diamondback bullpen, the way I rate the bullpens, it’s 29th in baseball. The Giants about middle of the pack. They’re 15 exactly in the middle there. And then I think we get an advantage offensively. But one of the things that was really interesting about this was the BBK numbers. And I’ll just start with the overall BBK numbers today. The disparity between Rodón, he’s at a 0.23 walks divided by strikeouts, super low, 28th in baseball.

And then you look at Davies, he’s at 0.47, 160th in baseball. But kind of getting drilling down a little bit deeper into this. You look at Davies on the road. His median BBK is really high, 0.66. And I think that’s really alarming for anybody that would venture a bet on Arizona. It’s great for us. And as far as our handicap goes. But one of the other things about Davies is you see sometimes these guys that maybe they have some control issues, but they really can suppress power. Well, his ISO power on the road and this looks over about probably about 25 starts is 22% worse than an average pitcher. And I can compile that via the log cutter. So I think there’s a lot of things to like about betting the Giants here. Again, TC, I think it’s a gift. I’m going to put in a parlay with Cleveland. Plus 118 will be the return on that.

TC Martin:

I looked at this game, Mark, and I looked at the Giants just like you. And I said, Rodón has been solid his last three starts … 30 strikeouts, only two walks. You look at his last four starts. He gave up some runs but still had the strikeouts there. He was victimized by a couple home runs. But here’s what got me off of this game. Those last two starts against Arizona have been dreadful. And I don’t know why the Diamondbacks hit this guy, but they do. Gave up nine earned runs in his last two starts. He gave up five last time out, gave up the two homers, time before that he gave up four runs. So just something tells me that, okay, they see the ball coming out of his hand pretty well. I’m usually a guy like if it’s one start, okay, you’re going to get revenge. You’re going to bounce back. Giants are playing better. They got the better lineup. I’m with you with all that. But that’s the only reason that I paused on that. That was it. Jeff, some thoughts on the game?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m so close on this one. Strike out total is seven and a half for Rodón. You look at in two starts, as you talked about against Arizona, while he did give up runs, look at the strikeout numbers … double digits in one, seven in another. Seventeen strikeouts over two starts. You know, Arizona doesn’t strike out a ton. The number seven and a half on Rodón, I got a weird feeling it’s like he gets seven and he hasn’t been going too deep, really. It’s always about pitch count with strikeouts. That’s really the whole thing. I might have a little play on that tonight if we can get one on BetUS. We’ll see. I think it’s probably a good spot though. Arizona always seems to do enough, but never finds a way to win. I don’t love San Francisco, but Rodón is just so good. And generally, he’s going to be really solid. So yeah, I don’t think it’s a bad play for Mark.

TC Martin:

All right. All right. We’re going to put Basewinner down with the Giants. And he’s got a two-team parlay with this one. Looks pretty good with a couple $2 favorites in Cleveland, two, San Francisco, correct? That’s the parlay we’re looking at Basewinner?

Basewinner :

Yeah, let’s get a winner tonight. Come on, guys. Let’s crush him.

TC Martin:

Let’s crush them. Let’s do it. All right. We’re playing some good teams tonight. We’ll say that. Now we’re laying a little juice except with the Mets because they are on the road against a red-hot Atlanta team. But for the most part, again, you’re going to get into this, and we’ve talked about this before. The heavy favorites are covering. Good teams, you’re going to have to lay, especially in August. We understand that. But that’s a risk that we got to take. But I’d rather do that and go down fighting and swinging with [inaudible 00:34:23]-

Basewinner :

I feel good about betting against Daniel Norris. He looks kind of like Chuck Norris too. And it reminds me of that body shaper. You ever watch that infomercial on late-night TV, the Chuck Norris Body Shaper? Every time I look at Daniel Norris, I can’t help but think about that. Chuck Norris Body Shaper. I’ve almost bought it a couple times. It’s a great infomercial actually. But I never have. But then you got Norris going up against Zach Davies. I think that’s a good recipe to get well, TC.

TC Martin:

Just do us a favor Mark, and do not unbutton that shirt and do this show with your shirt off in memory of Chuck Norris’s-

Basewinner :

No. Never would. But that’s a good commercial. I got to give Chuck Norris credit for the quality of that infomercial.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s go to the Q&A. Let’s hit some questions here. If you got some questions regarding any of the games that we haven’t touched on or … let’s do it here. All right? What do we got going here today? We’ve got the Orioles. All right. Tariq wants to know … again, I said the other day. You got to let me know. Is it Tarique or Tariq? Send us a little message. I like to call our viewers by their proper name. Orioles again. Plus a run and a half. Anybody want any part of Voth today?

Basewinner :

I think that I would pass on it personally. If I did play it, I’d probably play the under here. Stripling can locate pretty good. Voth has been pretty decent his last few starts out. I’ve got the total at 8.3. It looks like it’s in the market at nine. So that’s kind of how I would play it, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. And Blue Jays. They’ve been scuffling. We know that. And Stripling going to the mound again. What do you think, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I can’t figure this team out. I mean, sometimes they look so good. Sometimes they look so poor. It seems like the Orioles never lose all of a sudden. I mean, there’s six games above 500. Incredible. It really is. Let me ask you guys. If you’d have told me before the season that on August 17th, 2022, the Orioles would have the same amount of wins as Toronto, you’d have said, Nadu, stop smoking PCP. I mean, let’s just be real. I mean, it’s crazy. Good for Baltimore.

TC Martin:

It is. But it just goes to show you here that you can’t just believe the hype here. And Toronto, remember, they were the flavor of the month going back in April and everything. But when healthy, Toronto is solid. But when Springer misses a quarter of the season or a third of the season, your leadoff guy, the guy that you’re paying close to $300 million and he’s not there, it’s not the same team. Manoah. You got Manoah. And what else do you got pitching? I mean, you’re going to trot guys out like Stripling and other guys that have been relievers. I mean, this Toronto team is weird. And then you have a managerial change. First of all, you don’t have a good manager, to begin with. And then you get rid of him. You got disarray in the clubhouse. Now you’ve got discontent between upper management and the clubhouse on what they want to do going forward here.

Yeah. Toronto is a mess, but I’ll just say this, Jeff, no one saw the Atlanta Braves coming last year either. Remember two years ago, the Braves were a mess. Two and three years ago, they were sub-500. The Atlanta Braves, are you kidding me? Then they just put this run together. That’s what the Orioles remind me of. Maybe not to that extent because, again, they fell so far behind to the Yankees because they had that incredible run. But in Baltimore, they said, “Well we’re going to get rid of Mancini,” this and that. We’re still going to do this. It reminds me of the way the Brewers have treated things in the past. The Brewers would always be great until the month of June or July. And then they would fade come August or September. And I thought we would get that with Baltimore. I did. But we haven’t. But that’s because a lot of the teams they’re playing are not very good right now [inaudible 00:38:20].

Basewinner :

They’re hanging in there. Aren’t they? And it’s surprising to me.

TC Martin:

It’s cool. It’s cool.

Basewinner :

Yeah. I don’t think that like on paper, they don’t look like they can hang in there, but they have been hanging in there. So interesting story. I don’t think that they ultimately get into the playoff, but I don’t know. It’s been exciting for some, I guess.

TC Martin:

It’s a good story. Yeah. A-Rod wants to do a overs parlay here. He’s got the Dodgers and the Brewers. What other games should he go with? Basewinner?

Basewinner :

I think that’s a good one. The Dodgers-Brewers. You know this Oakland-Texas … yeah. I don’t know how you don’t play the over here if you’re going to play a total. Oller versus [inaudible 00:39:00]. So put that one in the parlay. Have no regrets about that. And then maybe another one would be-

Jeff Nadu:

I got one. I got one.

TC Martin:

Go ahead, Jeff. [inaudible 00:39:09].

Jeff Nadu:

You guys are going to think I’m nuts but do it. Tampa Bay-Yankees, over. Germán stinks. Kluber stinks. Two over-the-hill hacks. Two guys that I think get beat up a little bit here today. Something tells me the Yankees offense … did we see First Take this morning? Yankees, they’re starting to panic. They’re going to hit some home runs today. I got a weird feeling.

Basewinner :

That’s not a bad one. I’ve got that one at 8.4 runs. Looks like you can get seven and a half. So what’s a three-teamer would be Dodgers-Brewers over Oakland Athletics-Rangers. And then the Rays-Yankees. I think I might make a bet on that one. That sounds good to me.

TC Martin:

Okay.

Jeff Nadu:

Germán blows.

TC Martin:

What about the Red Sox and Pirates? I see runs being scored today. Warm day in Pittsburgh. Boston’s got the bats. Contreras against Rich Hill. Why not?

Jeff Nadu:

Who the hell is Roansy Contreras?

TC Martin:

Huh?

Jeff Nadu:

Who the hell is Roansy Contreras?

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Basewinner :

Yeah. Contreras definitely has some issues with what he’s shown so far.

TC Martin:

I would’ve looked at that. All right. Let’s see. Ed wants some thoughts on the Twins and the Royals. What do you guys think about Twins and Royals here today? I looked at the Twinkies a little bit here today. I still like the Twinkies a little bit.

Basewinner :

Yeah, but I think the price is too high. I have them at minus 1.62, personally.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Pitching matchup in that game for the Twins. Mahle has been pretty good since coming over. And I’m not a Lynch guy at all. So yeah. It’s a high price. But any thoughts on that, Basewinner?

Basewinner :

Yeah. No, I have it priced at minus 1.62. I mean, I just can’t see any value. Lynch is almost in that quartile low from a location standpoint. Mahle is almost in the quartile high. So I think gun to the head, I think I’d play the Twins and hope that Lynch gets lynched.

TC Martin:

Jeff, any quick thoughts on that or anything else?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, this could be a decent over candidate, maybe. I mean two just kind of guys. You say Mahle has an advance … I guess he does, slightly. I don’t know if I’d want to back him, though. This guy has always kind of sucked when he was at Cincinnati, as well.

TC Martin:

Yeah. [inaudible 00:41:28] that was Cincinnati. A little change of sceneries were good for him. I mean-

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. And look`.

TC Martin:

His last start was good. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Minnesota’s much better than Cincinnati. He’s got that behind him. But you know my thoughts on these kind of early day games with bad pitchers. I mean, you’re kind of just playing the lottery here. Anything could happen. I think there are better bets on the card. Yeah, we have to get out of this whole just because we’re at work and bored and we want to bet something, we bet it. I mean, I see that with soccer all the time. People don’t even know how to bet soccer, they’re betting soccer. And then it’s 1-1. And they say, “Why didn’t I get my money back?” Because it’s a [inaudible 00:41:57] line. You got to understand what you’re betting. And that’s why you don’t bet at work because you’re bored.

Basewinner :

I wonder how much productivity is lost in the workplace on betting on soccer. That would be an interesting study.

Jeff Nadu:

And it’s all people just watching Gamecast. They don’t even know where to watch the games. That’s the truth.

TC Martin:

All right. Appreciate all the questions as usual. All right. Let’s wrap things up here today and look at our best bets on the board today. We handicapped six games here today. We got action, and I got action all over the board. So let’s rock it. Jeff and I have got Mad Max Scherzer going tonight for the Mets against the Braves. Jeff is also going to … you added another player two or three or four, didn’t you? Jeff, go ahead. What do you got?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I added another play, Dodgers’ first five minus a half. Going to back Gonsolin. Listen, TC, I’m just going to say it between you and me. We got more juice than a Tropicana factory today.

TC Martin:

We do. [inaudible 00:42:55].

Jeff Nadu:

Yikes. Could be ugly. Listen, let’s not think negatively, though.

TC Martin:

Exactly, exactly. But we got three teams I think that we can believe in. We got pitching advantages and we got some offense. So I’m going Mets, I’m going Cardinals, I’m going Dodgers, going in today. There you go. Basewinner has got the parlay going. The Basewinner parlay. He’s got two favorites, Cleveland and San Francisco. Tie those two up for $1. You’re going to get plus 1.18. So good luck. No, I like our plays. I like everyone’s place today.

Jeff Nadu:

Can I talk about food for a second before we go?

TC Martin:

Absolutely. That’s my favorite topic.

Jeff Nadu:

I want to talk about a combination that we don’t talk about enough, but it needs to get some love because I want to give you a little message. Okay, back in March of 2020, I decided that it was time to lose weight. I lost 130 pounds. We all know that story. One thing I did to cut out and to lose weight is I eat once a day. That’s all I do. And I cut out fried food. Don’t eat fried food. Up until basically a month or two ago, I didn’t eat fried food. But I missed occasionally having a great french fry. Not a soggy french fry, a nice solid french fry from a pizzeria, or something like that. But I recently rediscovered the fact of ranch dressing and French fries. What a great combo that truly is. We don’t talk about it enough. Delicious.

Basewinner :

I totally agree with you, Jeff. That is one of the things I will agree with you on is that is a great combo.

Jeff Nadu:

It really is.

TC Martin:

Listen, guys. I’m a french fry connoisseur. There are three things-

Jeff Nadu:

So you agree.

TC Martin:

There’s four things I’m a connoisseur with. Okay? I’m a connoisseur with French fries … all right? With hot dogs and with steaks. All right? Now with the French fries, they have to be fresh-cut French fries. We stop all arguing with the frozen french fry. Now I can break down a couple good frozen French fries, but they have to be fresh cut. Take your MLB picks
if you want skins on, skins off. I make my own French fries about two or three times a week. Sometimes I’ll go to the square potatoes, okay, instead of the thick steak fries. I’ll alternate that. But I love a good french fry. But I’ll tell you this. And this is going to shock a lot of people. I’ve talked about this before. I cannot put anything on my French fries. I’m not a ketchup guy. They ask me for ketchup. I say, get that away from me. No. I have never been a dip french fry guy, Jeff. Maybe I’m missing something here-

Jeff Nadu:

I’m telling you, TC. For someone that I-

TC Martin:

I’m not a ranch dressing guy, period. I’m a Thousand Island only because I put that on my burger … the secret sauce. Go ahead.

Jeff Nadu:

My pallet is I think quite good. I mean, I don’t eat a lot of weird stuff. I’m a pretty good food guy. I’m telling you, man, you get a really good ranch dressing. It is very good. And look, I’m a pizza guy, right? I’m a East Coast guy. How could I not be a pizza guy? I even like pizza with ranch occasionally myself. I mean ranch on fries and pizza is very good. I think you should give it a shot. Especially if you get the right ranch. And generally, you got to get the ranch at some sort of steakhouse, probably. They generally have very good ranch dressing. As far as the frozen fries, I don’t completely agree with that. My best friend owns a pizzeria, and I worked there when I was a kid. And they had french fries that were bagged and they were very good, honestly. But nah, the french-

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:46:05] you can get some good ones, but to me, there’s just nothing better than the fresh-cut fries. I mean you could taste a distinct difference. Basewinner, you want to chime in on this?

Basewinner :

I think Five Guys has really good fries. No I like-

TC Martin:

Fresh cut. Exactly.

Basewinner :

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

See, I don’t agree with that.

Basewinner :

I agree with Jeff on the ranch. I like the ranch on the fries. But yeah, those Five Guys’ fries are good. I think they put it in peanut oil. I think that’s one of their secrets-

Jeff Nadu:

They do.

Basewinner :

… Even though it’s not a secret.

TC Martin:

They do have good fries.

Jeff Nadu:

Another weird take by me. Maybe it’s weird. Maybe it’s not. I’m not a salt guy. I hate over-salted things. Five Guys, it’s like having sand. I mean, it is so much salt. I mean it’s crazy.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Now here’s another thing, guys. I’m more of a pepper guy than I am a salt guy. I think that fries need some salt and I like a little seasoned salt, but I will go a two-thirds, one-third ratio from pepper to salt. I got that from my dad. I used to call him Pepper Martin because he used pepper just on everything. I mean you talk about dousing. I mean, he was just a big salt and pepper guy, but especially pepper. And I learned that, and I love pepper. I love pepper on my steak. I love pepper on my fries. I’m a pepper guy. There you go. And the pizza, it seems weird, Jeff, that a pizzeria would be famous or good for fries. I just don’t see the combo.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, no. I mean, listen-

TC Martin:

That’s weird. [inaudible 00:47:27] see it.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m not saying they’re known for it. A true pizzeria has good everything. Okay. There’s not a flaw. Okay. They have good fries. They have good salads. They have good pizza. They have good steaks-

TC Martin:

You better have a good minestrone soup at a pizzeria too. Give me a minestrone soup.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean good cannolis. If you go to pizzerias that are chained, stay the hell away from me, and don’t talk to me. That is not … you just can’t. You got to go to a place that makes their own bread, has a cannoli the mom makes in the back. That’s how it works. If they don’t speak Sicilian at your pizzeria or Albanian or something like that, leave immediately. This just not-

TC Martin:

There it is. [inaudible 00:48:10].

Jeff Nadu:

You can’t have some guy that learned how to make pizza a year ago, make a pizza. Nah, he needs to be fat. He needs to be Italian and only speak Italian.

TC Martin:

I’ll throw one more thing on the french fry thing before we leave here guys, and this will probably blow you away too. I think I’m the only guy that does this. I eat my French fries with a fork. I don’t [inaudible 00:48:28]-

Basewinner :

Oh, wow. That’s huge.

TC Martin:

I guess I’m too bougie. But again, learned that as a very young kid. And I do the thick steak fries. I’m a fork guy. Even on the thin shoestring ones, I’m fork. No ketchup, salt, pepper. There it is. I don’t want to-

Basewinner :

Wow.

TC Martin:

… Get the hands all greasy.

Basewinner :

Huge news that we’ve learned about DC.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean that’s a little much. What do you not even-

TC Martin:

Oh, no. No it’s class, Jeff. It’s just called class.

Basewinner :

What do you do when you go to McDonald’s, and you get the fries at McDonald’s? You ask for a fork?

TC Martin:

Don’t go to McDonald’s. That’s it. And again, I barred McDonald’s a long time ago because the burgers are horrible. And when they changed the fries about four and a half, five years ago. Forget it. They’re bars.

Jeff Nadu:

Fast food sucks.

TC Martin:

Fast food sucks. I’m with Jeff-

Jeff Nadu:

Brutal.

TC Martin:

… All the way. Forget about it.

Jeff Nadu:

I think you’re better off-

TC Martin:

I do endorse Freddy’s Frozen Custard & Steakburgers. Great fries there. The Jalapeño Pepper Jack Burger that I’ll be involved with today. I represent Freddy’s. Freddy’s is fantastic. Only fast-food chain that I go to. Very good french fries there too. And the frozen-

Jeff Nadu:

I’ll tell you this. I would rather starve than eat fast food. I’m not kidding. I will just accept it and go to sleep. I’m good. No-

TC Martin:

Here you go, Basewinner., you’re like this. The only time I go to McDonald’s, and I’d go to McDonald’s maybe twice a year when they bring back the McRib. Don’t ask me why.

Basewinner :

Well-

TC Martin:

It’s disgusting. It’s terrible. But for some reason, it tastes pretty good.

Basewinner :

McDonald’s does have good coffee, but you don’t drink coffee. So you have no reason to go there.

TC Martin:

I don’t. I don’t. Forget about it. All right, there you go. Thank you for joining us today for our handicapping and our french fry lesson, ranch dressing. That’s what you get out of this one here. And eat french fries with a fork. Show some class. There it is. Plain and simple. But you’re right. When I used to go to McDonald’s, that’d be the only time I would eat it with my fingers. But yeah, forget it. All right, guys. Appreciate everyone for joining us. Remember click that bell. Get the notifications when we go live. And follow us on Twitter as well, too, individually. Because you’ll get some good food takes as well, too. And most of my food stuff is on Facebook. So yeah, we got a lot of good food talk. No question. All right. 12 noon, Eastern, Monday through Friday, Jeff Nadu, Basewinner, myself, Scott Spreitzer on vacation this week. And we’ll be back at it again tomorrow. A little lighter card today, guys, but good luck to everyone. Let’s get some winners. We’ll see you tomorrow right here on The MLB Show. BetUS TV.