TC Martin:
And welcome aboard wherever you may be. Thanks for joining us here on this Thursday edition of the MLB show here on BetUSTV presented by America’s favorite sportsbook , BetUS . I am TC Martin, flanked from left to right by Jeff Nadu and the Basewinner, Mark Borchard. Also the author of Basewinner Crunch, his podcast. I had to throw that in there for you, Basewinner
Mark Borchard:
All right, TC. I appreciate that. Yeah, guys, I kind of brought it back. I used to do it in the day and I’m doing it, I think it’s going to be four days a week. So Tuesday through Friday, it’s 10 minutes hard-hitting on one game and that coincides with the overview spreadsheet I send out every night and it’s available on basewinner.com. If you just go to plays, you can see what I had last night. And we were talking before the show it’s unfortunate. I wasn’t on the show yesterday, because I had a tremendous day. Five and one yesterday, hit the parlay and you can see that on the sheet on my site. And I just wasn’t on the show, so shucks. What bad timing TC.
TC Martin:
I know. It was bad for Jeff and I and Scott yesterday. I’m glad you had winners, but it just goes to show you guys that the run line and the first five are not always the answer. You can handicap it any way you want, but it’s very frustrating when you handicap the winner and you don’t get the result. And that happened in a couple games yesterday, obviously affected us with the Yankee game yesterday and also the Padres game. Another friend of mine who’s another handicapper had that game yesterday only to see those guys jump up what, 3-0 and then get a push or the game gets tied so you don’t cash your ticket. I don’t know about you guys, but I want to share the same emotion that the team is going through, okay? They’re in the clubhouse afterwards, they’re high fiving, they’re excited and we handicapped the winner but we’re on the losing end and we’re frustrated. I want to share the same emotion guys. Am I wrong for that? Frustrating
Mark Borchard:
You want to share the emotion of the team that won, but you didn’t win your bet. I see what you’re saying.
TC Martin:
Yeah. I want to be in that same clubhouse. They won, I handicapped them to win but we’re on the losing end because we play a run line or we play a first five. There you go.
Mark Borchard:
Maybe you shouldn’t be in the clubhouse after that game because those guys are all… And you’re like, what the hell? You guys didn’t cover the run line. In all seriousness, I bet you there were people in the stands, I bet you there was a lot of people in the stands in New York that had that run line and had that same sentiment. Well you guys won, but you didn’t cover the run line.
TC Martin:
Yeah, that’s the most frustrating thing as a better I think as we know and it’s different than point spreads obviously in football and basketball when you have to deal with money lines or run lines and look at alternate plays. So we know that, but anyway. Jeff, what’s going on man?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m at the point now with baseball where I’m just kind of getting annoyed, frustrated, sick of it, tired of it. Look, I’m always going to do it but there are days where you just get very irritated with how things go. This Yankee team just annoys me. They annoy the F out of me. I don’t think I can say it, they annoy the hell out of me. I’m tired of this team. Look, I know they win every game but that’s the problem. Every time they win or I’m involved with them, they always seem to screw it up and they don’t play well. What made it even more sickening was they were down 4-0 in the fifth inning, comes back, they go up 5-4 and I’m thinking, okay, three outs. I know Severino’s out but this is a bad team. And then you give it up again.
And then to make it even worse, both the teams that I bet yesterday actually won the game, which you kind of are talking about. It’s just kind of annoying. I’m not real worried about the Gonsolin one. I’ve made a lot of money on that this year. He’s 12-5 in the first five this year, so that still is a money maker. But it just seems like anytime I back this Yankees team, they play terribly. I don’t know what that outing was yesterday and Severino goes out with an injury, this bullpen comes in and screws it up. Just annoying, tired of it.
TC Martin:
And it’s one of those things that we talked about, not to beat a dead horse, but we talked about the Yankees and the Red Sox, the bullpen, it explodes again. And to a certain degree the bullpen, they kind of saved the game a little bit, they got some good middle relief. But then they gave it right back again. But to give up back to back homers from the 7, 8, 9 hitters in the order for the Cincinnati Reds, that’s frustrating. We talked about the Boston game Saturday and Sunday. And again, it’s frustrating with this and you guys can make fun of me all you want, but I really feel that I am getting away from the run line. And I’m serious about this. I would rather lay $3 and cash a ticket instead of losing a run line bet because two of my last three losses have been on the run line and that’s frustrating. And as you guys know, I’m not a big run line player so it’s just more frustrating.
And not that I’m crying a river here, but if I’m going to handicap a boxing match where I’m going to lay 3 or 4 or 5/1, I feel pretty good about that, I just have to win the game. So with baseball, we kind of stay away from that and people get made fun of because, oh, why are you going to lay juice? Hey, a winner’s a winner at the end of the day and when you do handicap you would be cashing a ticket if you bet them straight. But then again you want to get involved in, again, a teaser or a gimmick play like this, it comes back to haunt you.
Jeff Nadu:
And I always say, I think you and me TC, especially, bet all these different sports. I know Mark’s more baseball, but there is nothing more aggravating than baseball and the way you lose baseball games. Just with things like playing a first five, you don’t win the first five but they win the game or playing a full game and the bullpen blows it. And you say you should have… It’s aggravating, it’s extremely annoying and another one. I personally bet yesterday as well, the Astros. I don’t know what that was. I know Ohtani’s been great this year, but Javier just wasn’t good. They couldn’t seem to muster anything together. I don’t know what that was. It was a bad day yesterday for good teams. The Dodgers, the Astros. The Dodgers ultimately won, but just didn’t seem like anything worked out.
TC Martin:
And that was a good spot for the Angels. If there’s ever going to be a good spot, it was because Ohtani was pitching yesterday. You can make the case, again we talked about the Astros yesterday because, okay, we’re getting value. The Astros have seen Ohtani on several occasions. But again that was a good spot and again, today is probably a great spot and we’ll talk about it here in a few minutes of getting right back on the Astros because we have a pitching advantage on this side this time. That is baseball. Quick thoughts on any of that Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. Ohtani’s just been amazing and, to me, he’s closed the gap. On June 23rd he had a good start and I tweeted out he was at 40/1 and I thought that price was really high and gosh, I think he’s closing in on McClanahan. You look at his last three starts, his triple X ERA, 1.52 and his Basewinner ERA 1.34 and you can see the gap closing on the Basewinner chart. I think that’s going to be super interesting to follow that race because in my mind really, to be fair to Shane McClanahan, he had it locked up on June 23rd. I was just like, well Ohtani’s 40/1 and Verlander was, I don’t know what he was, 3/1. I said, this is ridiculous. If you’re going to play an outside shot, play Ohtani. I think Ohtani’s got a legitimate chance to win that AL Cy Young award. He’s 11-1, 10-3, 12-2 his last three starts just from a strikeout-walk standpoint. I mean, if he keeps that up you got to give him the Cy Young award, TC.
TC Martin:
Yeah. Again, I think it’s really too early to talk about those end of the season awards. But if you’re stopping it right now, obviously, yeah. We’ll see what happens and how often is he going to pitch, that’s always been the question with Ohtani. Is he going to pitch every five days, six days, seven days, ten days? You never knew. Especially when Joe Madden was managing the team, you didn’t know what you were going to get. There’s a lot of inconsistency there. But right now, yeah. Ohtani is rock solid. No doubt.
Mark Borchard:
I think McClanahan has him beat right now, but he’s closing the gap. McClanahan’s been good but he hasn’t been as good as a Cy Young award winner the last two starts. So if Ohtani can just double-digit strike out the whole rest of the season, which is saying a lot, double-digit strikeouts is, well if he can just do that, right? That’s pretty hard to do. But if he continues to pitch at the efficiency that he’s pitching, he’s going to surpass McClanahan in my opinion.
TC Martin:
All right. Guys, let’s go to the tote board real quick before we get into today’s games, hope for a little bit better fair today. Again, been riding it pretty good as of late but we have all those little stumbles and yesterday was one for all of us on the show, except for Basewinner who was good yesterday, at home on his off day.
Jeff Nadu:
But naturally he wasn’t on the show of course. It’s just brutal. I’m sick of this, man. I just can’t get over the [inaudible 00:09:33] it into the positive. I’ll admit, I’m frustrated today. I’m annoyed with this.
Mark Borchard:
Jeff, I want to ask you a question because I handle this a certain way. When you lose a five inning bet, do you root for that team to lose? “Well, you didn’t hit my bet. I want to see this team go down.”
Jeff Nadu:
Absolutely. Yeah.
Mark Borchard:
Because there’s nothing more frustrated.
TC Martin:
Kind of makes you feel a little bit better, right?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, there’s nothing more frustrating when the team comes back and wins. That just chaps me. And I’m an analytical handicapper, I shouldn’t have emotion, but I do. And when that team doesn’t cover that five inning line and then they go on and win the game, it’s super aggravating Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
I used to get real annoyed. It is what it is, but there are certain games that just annoy you. Like I said, Yankees going up 4-0. They tease you, go up 5-4 and then the fifth thing just blow it. That’s what’s annoying. And this is a team that seemingly never loses. And it’s like of course the night I play them, and again I added that, I laid a big price which I don’t do much. Maybe I should just bet the Orioles. They just keep winning. So
TC Martin:
The Orioles and the Mariners. We haven’t really been on these guys because we’re thinking, okay, they’re going to probably revert back to where they were in the beginning of the season. But the Orioles win 10 in a row, the Mariners win 10 in a row. Basewinner, that was your adopted team. Where you been on the Mariners?
Mark Borchard:
I know. I’ve been missing the games because I price every game out and there’s just no value on the line so it stinks, it really does. Because there’s certain things I like about the Mariners. But when you have Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzalez pitching, it’s really hard to back those guys.
TC Martin:
All guys let’s get into today’s game. We’re going to handicap four games today on this Thursday. Got some early starts today, travel day for some of these teams, here we go. Boston and Tampa Bay will be the first one that we look at here. The raiser $1.25 favorite. If you like the Red Sox, +115 total in this one. 7.5, -115 towards the over in this game. Cutter Crawford going for the Red Sox and Drew Rasmussen for the Rays. Two teams guys really going in opposite directions here. Tampa Bay has put together a nice little three game win streak, Boston has lost three in a row. Boston is 3-7 in their last 10, looked pretty good in that Yankee series but once they get out of that, they haven’t looked good.
And like I’ve said before, for me, this is all correlated to the Red Sox starting pitching. You throw out these young guys, a lot of these high schoolers as I like to call and you got another one. Cutter Crawford, a 26 year old basically rookie going today. Hard to bet this team right now until they get their starting pitching back. You saw Sale a little bit the other day, don’t know what he’s going to bring for the rest of the season. Walker, Eovaldi still not there yet. So hard team to back right now and again here in the Al east, like we talked about yesterday, every team over 500. Base, what are some thoughts on this game?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’ve got a price at -117 and the market was like -122. So for me it’s not a play, but I think what’s very interesting to me, TC, on this game is Cutter Crawford. He doesn’t lead with the cutter, but he uses the cutter 37% of the time. So we have Cutter who uses his cutter and you couldn’t make that up really could you, TC?
TC Martin:
Don’t you think that that’s why he does? Your parents are going to name you cutter, kid you better master the cutter. You’re a pitcher, you’re a professional baseball player. Of course.
Mark Borchard:
And his stuff+ number is good, it’s the 74 percentile stuff+ number. Both pitchers I’d like in the model a little bit better than average, both offenses I like a little bit better than average and so for me I think the Tampa Bay bullpen’s a little bit better and that’s where I get this -117. But there’s not enough deviation from the line on either side for me to venture an opinion or a play on it, TC.
TC Martin:
I’d like to see a picture, come in with the first name of Knuckle-curve. That’s what I’d like to see.
Mark Borchard:
Well maybe they’ll start naming their kids that.
TC Martin:
That’s what I’m saying, Knuckle-curve. Jeff, any thoughts on this game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I think this is a tough one. I’ve noticed at times this year, sharp money has really liked Rasmussen and they’re pushing numbers up. I think you alluded to the fact that these two teams are kind of going in opposite directions, at least right now. It’s tough for me though just because I do like Boston’s offense, I don’t really like Tampa’s. This is just a coin flippy game. That being said, I will say this. I consider myself from an old school family, from an old school way of thinking. I’m blown away that a human being would name their son Cutter. That’s wild to me.
I actually went and looked it up that it was actually his real name. Because sometimes kids will go by their nicknames or something. But then I realized he’s from Okeechobee, Florida, which I believe is near the Everglades. I have to think. But I mean, come on. What is this name? What is going on with names nowadays? I get you’re not going to name your kid Dolores or Leroy, but Cutter?
Mark Borchard:
If you say he is from Florida, maybe he wasn’t named after the pitch. Maybe who was named after you get a cut at chew and you put it in your lip there. Maybe that’s what it was.
TC Martin:
Maybe it was a cutter wave or something. I don’t know.
Jeff Nadu:
It’s just an awful name. Let’s just be honest, it’s terrible.
Mark Borchard:
Cutting the Everglades so they get their airboat through it? I don’t know.
TC Martin:
Hey, full disclosure guys. I was going name my kid, turned out to be a daughter, I was going to name her Vegas. I got vetoed down. I got vetoed down. Wife vetoed me. I thought it was a cool name, especially if it was going to be a boy.
Mark Borchard:
I think it’s cool name.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t hate that name actually.
Mark Borchard:
You’ve got Dallas, Austin. Why not Vegas?
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t hate Vegas as a name. I like if I ever a daughter I’m going to name her Brooklyn. I’ve always thought that was a cool name. Vegas is cool. Cutter? No. That’s brutal.
TC Martin:
Vegas Martin. Man, could have been great. All right, no play on this game, let’s go to the next one. Dodgers and the Cardinals, Tyler Anderson and Dakota Hudson going in this one and the Dodgers a $1.52 favorite. Down 6-0 last night and they come back and they win 7-6. Scored a bunch of runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth inning. Total in this one, nine, -115 towards the over in this one. Basewinner, thoughts, Dodgers and the Cardinals today.
Mark Borchard:
Oh the Dodgers are my favorite team this morning. I had them and it’s one of those games as a better you kind of just chalk it up to a loss. You see 6-0 And you’re like wow, this game’s done. So you put it in your record and then, oh they score two runs and then they bring it to 6-5 and then they end up coming all the way back 7-6. And there’s nothing better as a person who bets baseball to see that happen because it’s happened the other way around, I think I lost an 8-1 game with the White Sox versus the Royals a few years back in the ninth inning. So you get that. You got to file those wins away where they come back from the dead because it’ll balance out because you’ll lose one where the other team will come back from the dead.
But as far as this game goes, I’ve got it priced at -209, so significant value with the Dodgers here. And if you look at the way I had these guys rated, I’m just not a fan of Dakota Hudson and I think that any sabermetric handicapper or just sabermetric person in general would not be a sabermetric person if they like Dakota Hudson. He is 131 runs allowed number in the Basewinner model, 148 out of 150 pitchers. A stuff+ number of 1%. And if you take a look at Tyler Anderson, Anderson, not too bad, I don’t love this matchup as a lefty versus the St. Louis Cardinals’ lefthanded hitting. But I’ve got Anderson 12% better than an average pitcher and I’m going to go ahead and bring out the Basewinner triple X ERA. And if you look at his triple X ERA over the last two games, 2.56, 2.61. A lot of below 4s from a triple X ERA and his median triple X ERA, 3.22 on this season.
So there’s a lot to about Anderson’s numbers and a little bit of trepidation because that St. Louis offense is good versus lefties. But I think you throw it in the mix, -209, I’ve got to play this TC.
TC Martin:
Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
I kind of went a weird weirder way with this game. When you look at Anderson, you see that he’s facing the Cardinals. Mark Alluded to the fact that the Cardinals facing left. He’s just good for them. They’re hitting 264 against lefties, I think they have like a 763 OPS. They’re very good against lefthanded pitching. I look at Anderson. Last four starts he has allowed five or more hits in every one of those starts. You look at the match up here today. I think both teams score. I didn’t want to play the over, I was hoping for 8.5. It’s not there, it’s 9.
But when I look at Anderson, I don’t love this match up for him. This is a Cardinal team that has scoring some runs. I think they have a lot on the base path today. You can get over 5.5 hits for the Cardinals against Anderson. That’s a pretty decent play, Anderson has struggled recently. A lot of traffic, he’s not as good on the road as he is at home which is general for most pitchers. I think this a pretty good match for the Cardinals. But I don’t like Dakota Hudson. Like I said, I wanted to take it over but I just don’t want to play 9. That would be the only way I’d really look. Maybe over 5.5 hits for the Cardinals.
TC Martin:
Yeah, that’s the thing about Anderson. Now he’s been good, you look at his record it’s 9-1. But he hasn’t been great and usually he doesn’t have bad back to back starts so if we’re going with the rotation, this one looks to be good. But you’re right Jeff, Cardinals against left-handers, I don’t feel real comfortable backing him in this situation. But as I said Anderson could be good, could be bad, but Dakota Hudson is bad just about all the time. Aside from his last start and I’m willing to throw that out because that was against the Phillies, that was a 1-0 game. Prior to that start, this guy gave up 22 runs in his last five starts and 35 hits. And we’ve talked about his control issues, he has 50 strikeouts on the year. 41 walks. So yeah, Dakota Hudson is just bad.
Now if the Dodgers are patient, then they will rip this guy and I’d love to see them get out to an early lead and I think that would be the motivation today in the clubhouse of saying guys, come on, let’s not fall behind. We’ve done that the last two days here, let’s get out ahead of this guy especially let’s send this guy to the showers. And we do that, then you get into the bullpen and the Dodgers could win going away here.
But Anderson has got to be serviceable or more than serviceable here. But again, he hasn’t had terrible outings, but again he just doesn’t strike me as a guy, especially now that maybe other teams are catching up to him. He’s good, but not great. But I’m banking on the Dodgers banging Dakota Hudson today so that’s why I’m going to play the game. I think we got action all the way around on this so let’s put it up there. I’m taking the Dodgers today, I believe Basewinner’s taking the Dodgers as well. We’ll give up the 152. And Jeff, do you have an official play on this game? Just a nod? Okay.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, TC. It’s really tough to make a case for Dakota Hudson. You look at the stuff+, one percentile. Luck rating, 73rd percentile from a lucky standpoint, higher being luckier. Walk numbers terrible, strikeout numbers terrible. Again it comes back to, we talked about this on the last show that I was on Tuesday, make a case for playing Dakota Hudson here.
TC Martin:
Can’t do it, yeah. And again, Dodger bats better than what St. Louis has so hopefully it works out this way and the Dodgers play with a little pride and they say Hey, we want to win this series, so let’s go. All we’re on the Dodgers today.
Next up guys, Houston and the Angels back tonight in Anaheim. Framber Valdez going against Reid Detmers. The Astros 175, this line jumped up and opened at 150. Everybody’s on the Astros again today, over 8 is the total here with 115 shaded that way. Framber Valdez, very consistent guys in Framber’s 17 starts he has only had one bad one. And what you’re going to get with Framber Valdez is you’re going to get probably double-digit strikeouts, you’re going to get a few walks with him because he will walk three, maybe four guys, sometimes five guys. But usually the Astros give him pretty good run support, but he will keep you under two runs.
He rarely has that start where he is going to give up four or five runs. Detmers on the other hand, kind of like Dakota Hudson, he gives up a hit in inning. He’s not nearly as bad and we ripped on Reid Detmers for his no-hitter where he had two strikeouts, I believe, in that game going back in April. Got sent down to the minors for a little bit. But this guy is very, very hittable. Again, gives up a lot of hits. Houston has defeated the Angels 8 out 12 times this year. I’m thinking this is a good bounce back for the Angels here. Again, can make the excuse that Ohtani was going last night, that was a great spot for the Angels. I think this is a good spot for the Astros to get back on the winning track against a very mediocre pitcher. Jeff.?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Plus you have a major advantage in your bullpen. That being said I’ve seen…
TC Martin:
And they’re rested by the way too. So you’re going to Pressly, and Neres and Montero, you could see them in a close game because they did not pitch last night.
Jeff Nadu:
But again, without Alvarez I guess I just don’t have the same interest in this lineup. That being said, they’re still a great team, they still have a pitching advantage here and they have a major bullpen advantage as I said. So yeah, I have no problem with this one. You have to expect that the Astros aren’t going to be held down two days in a row. But it’s weird, last four games, two have been bad, two have been good. So we’ll see where they are. They should be able to hit Detmers who had that one no-hitter and then he’s pretty much been bad in every other game or average. So yeah, I like it. I don’t have any issue with it.
TC Martin:
Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, based on Detmer’s performance after that no-hitter I think we should all because we were all on Tampa Bay when he pitched the no-hitter. I think we should get that play back because we handicapped it right retroactively. I’m looking at a line of -154. So I’m not going to play the…
TC Martin:
That basically where it opened, that’s where it was.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. So Trout’s out of the lineup, he’s got back spasms and so I think that people are reacting to that. It does make a difference, in fact it is kind of an interesting comparison because I sent it out last night I had Trout, my number was -143. Trout being out of the lineup makes it -154 for Houston. So it gives them about 10 points on the money line, Trout being out. I have the over, over 8 is how I’m going to play it. I’ve got it 8.8, even with Trout out of the lineup and it’s just kind of breaking into the lineups versus lefthanded pitching.
And if you look at Houston, and I know Yordan’s out and it’s debatable how long he’s going to be out, it’s a huge blow for Houston. But if you look at the way their one through nine shapes up versus left-handed pitching, Altuve is 22% better. 122 number. Aledmys Dias I have at 100 so he’s even there. Tucker at 126, Bregman 148, Gurriel 118. Pena a little bit below average and that’s debatable because my long term projections are probably more bearish than they should be on him at 98. Jake Myers I like versus lefthanded pitching at 115. And then Chas McCormick and Maldonado below average.
But the way that shakes out is it’s a 114, so 14% better than average versus left-handed pitching. And then you look at the Angels, Ohtani 39% better than average versus lefties, Ward 14% better than average. Stefanic, I kind of like, 116 which is 16% better than average. And then kind of stepping into place at Trout is Matt Duffy who versus lefthanded pitching is a 101, so he is a little bit better than average. So versus lefthanded pitching I’ve got the offense at 103. And I think you put that all in the mixer, I’m kind of bullish on Valdez, I’ve got him 16% better than average. But even saying that, putting the offense and the fact that debt me pitching into the model, I’ve got an 8.8 projection. I think that over here’s a decent play at TC.
TC Martin:
Okay. So Baserunner’s going to be on over on this game, rooting for runs here tonight in Anaheim. I will take the Astros in this game so put us down for that one. As we look for Houston to bounce back from last night.
Mark Borchard:
As an aside TC, do you have any inside information on Yordan Alvarez’ injury?
TC Martin:
About 10 days.
Mark Borchard:
You think that’s legit?
TC Martin:
I think it’s legit because it’s a hand bone bruise type of thing. That’s what they’re saying around the campfire, so hopefully it’s…
Mark Borchard:
All right, that’s good to know.
TC Martin:
Yeah. It’s nothing too drastic it sounds like, so we’ll go from there. And officially I don’t have any information. Officially.
Mark Borchard:
Okay, all right.
TC Martin:
All right, let’s go back to the games. Milwaukee and San Francisco tonight. Interesting one too as you got both aces in this game with the Brewers and the Giants. You’ve got Rodon for the Giants and Burnes for Milwaukee. Basically a pick-em, 106, 104 on this. Right now the Brewers are favored 106, Giants you lay 104. Very low total, 6.5 under -115. Don’t see too many of those do we guys. But again you got to pitcher friendly ballpark here, you got the two aces going, battle with team’s two best pitchers. Rodon 33 strikeouts in his last four games, Burnes 34 strikeouts. Rodon’s coming off that masterful performance against the Padres. Complete game, gave up one run at the end there 12 strikeouts. Burnes went seven shut out innings, 10 strikeouts in this game. I don’t know, this game it screams under guys, but I know when you see a 6.5 you’re a little bit leery about that. Jeff thoughts on the game?
Jeff Nadu:
This is for the most part at 6 everywhere. It’s even moved down and I think obviously when you’re looking at an under, look I don’t watch a lot of these games. I’ve told you guys that I just don’t. I will be watching this, I’m very much looking forward to a game like this. You have two teams that are really, I think, going to struggle. This is going to be a pitching game. You have two of the best strikeout guys in baseball. Look, I’ve talked about Burnes. He’s the best pitcher in the NL. He’s NL leader in strikeouts. These two are actually three and five in the entire major leagues in strikeouts. Both these teams strike out a lot, 21st and 24th in the leagues as far as strikeouts per game.
But I’m looking at Burnes. I bet him last time out against the Cubs over strikeouts. BetUS doesn’t have it out yet, we kind of talked about it, 7.5 is the prevailing number. If that’s the number I’m getting on Burnes over strikeouts, I’m in. Five of the last six he’s had 7.5 strikeouts in his games. Strikeouts per nine is around 11. It’s crazy what he’s been doing. This is a Giants group that strikes out about 8.7 times per game, that’s a lot. If you’re going to give me just him getting to his average or their average, I’m going to be betting it. I’d also lean under. I’ll probably have something on the under here. This game screams 2-1, 3-2 to me. It really is just going to be depending on the bullpens. But this is your stone cold, low scoring game.
TC Martin:
And you could probably make, I don’t know what the number is as far as Rodon on the strikeouts as well too, you could probably go both pitchers over that number. Be a little bit lower than Burnes’
Jeff Nadu:
One thing you have to also master with and one of the other reasons I think this number’s so low. In 100 innings this year for Rodon, he’s allowed four home runs and that’s pretty incredible. I mean Burnes has 12, so that just goes to show you how effective Rodon has been. Incredible season for him, I didn’t think he was capable of it.
TC Martin:
Yeah. He really keeps the ball down and that’s good, especially in that park too. Basewinner.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, I agree with a lot of what Jeff said. If you’re going to play this, you’re going to have to back Burnes here. I’ve got the game price at -195 for the Brewers and you may say gosh, why such a huge disparity? But Burnes has a 51 run suppression number meaning he’s going to suppress runs 49% greater than an average pitcher. I only have Rodon and I’m bullish on him too. He’s 28th out of 150, but he’s a 20% run suppression number. And one are the things that I don’t like and the reason that I’m not making it a play on the show is this Milwaukee bullpen’s been taxed the last two days and they’ve gone Hader, Williams, Boxberger and I don’t know if any of those guys are going to be available.
So that’s the one thing that unfortunately I don’t have priced into the model as I send out the plays the day before. That’s kind of concerning if you want to back Milwaukee, so I like what Jeff’s done with it is he’s played the strikeout prop here. And I think that what’s pretty amazing about Corbin Burn’s last start is not his strikeout percentage, his last time out his swinging strike percentage was 25%. And that equates to a 51% strikeout percentage expected based on the swinging strike percentage and that was against the Cubs. So definitely a hot pitcher, he gave some good numbers on the offensive inability to make contact with the ball and so I think that’s a good play, Jeff. I think that one’s going to cash.
Jeff Nadu:
I had wavered back between taking Milwaukee because I’m saying to myself, I’m getting Burnes at basically flip here and why am I not playing it? Just in the end, I’m always with the Brewers concerned about their lineup and you look at them against left-handed pitching. They have been a disaster. Throw in the fact that they’re facing a guy that strikes out a ton of guys, as I said, 24th in strikeouts per game. I hope we see a pitcher’s duel, I really do because I think it’d be a masterful game. It screams 2-1, 1-0, 3-2. I think it’s a low scoring game. This is what a six should be, this kind of game. Yeah.
TC Martin:
It’s funny you say that too because so many people love watching high scoring games and when I looked at this matchup, I said the exact same thing you did. I was like, I want to watch this game because I love pitching, I love masterful pitching. A lot of people don’t enjoy that but if you love baseball and love the art of it, especially pitching, yeah, you’re going to love watching this game.
Jeff Nadu:
TC, I’m not going to get graphic here, but do you know what in sports truly gets me going? One of the greatest things on earth is a basketball team that plays defense. There’s nothing better. I’ve said before, Virginia in college basketball. Tony Bennett has a carefully orchestrated ballet. Getting kids to play defense at that age is very difficult, everyone wants to be Stephan Curry. But getting a kid to play defense and a pitcher that can just completely destroy a lineup, it’s one of the more impressive things I think we’ll see in sports. I love it.
TC Martin:
I agree with you a hundred percent, great to watch. All right put Jeff down for the strikeout prop here today with Corbin Burnes, rooting for a lot of strikeouts in this one so that’s what Jeff’s going to go burn.
Jeff Nadu:
You just play the no score first inning, no? You just play that here? You have to, right?
TC Martin:
That makes a lot of sense too and I’m sure you’re going to have to lay some juice on that. That makes some sense as well too.
Jeff Nadu:
How many people are going to play that today? Everyone and their mother’s going to play that in his games.
TC Martin:
Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. All right, questions. Feel free to hit us in the chat room. You want to cover any games that we didn’t touch on? We will do that for you so hit us here and remember to click that bell, get the notifications when we go live here on the MLB show, Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern, breaking down all of the games, giving you our best bets. But love taking your questions as well.
Braves and Nationals. I was very close on pulling this game and I probably will play this game later guys. Wright going for the Braves today and the Nationals are going to send out Aníbal Sánchez, who hasn’t pitched at all all year. Love to fade the Nationals, love to fade a pitcher that’s coming off the IL, especially a long term IL here. I understand the price is pretty high here, it’s kind of what got me off of it and I said, okay I’ll look elsewhere. But I’d probably do a little bit more homework in the next couple hours. I do like the Braves over the Nats in this situation. Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, this is a tough game for me because I’ve got it priced in the model -248, so that would indicate value on the Braves. I’m a huge fan of Kyle Wright. TC, you were onto Kyle Wright before he was cool, I guess and he’s been really good. I have him in the model 23% better than an average pitcher and I’ve got Sanchez in the model 22% worse than an average pitcher. The one thing that kind of concerns me about this and I did a breakdown, talk about Baserunner Crunch, I did a breakdown on the Washington offense for the Saturday podcast, put it out on Friday night. So if you want to see it, it’s an extensive breakdown on the Washington offense. There’s about maybe eight minutes of me talking about what I think about the offense.
So to summarize it, all of the guys on their ISO power, all but one have a less ISO power number this year than they do last year. And I don’t think that’s indicative of their true talent, I think that’s going to regress to the positive for the Nationals. And then I talked about their plate discipline, which is not top in baseball, but it’s fourth in baseball. Their ability to see the ball, and that’s defined by walks divided by strikeouts, so they’re fourth in baseball overall in plate discipline and they’re second last 30 days. So those are a couple of things that kind of kept me off the game, although the model priced it with the Braves with value, I have that in the back of my mind of this Nationals offense is going to take off at some point and start to score.
TC Martin:
Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. This is kind of your prototypical first five -0.5, but I’m gun shy because if I say to you I’m going to give you Severino against Mike Minor, arguably the worst starter in baseball and you can lay a half a run, I’d be in. I guess the one thing would the Nats that always gives me pause is I don’t hate their lineup. I really don’t. That being said, Annabel Sanchez is your Jordan Lyles. That’s what he is. You look at his career, just very average. .254 against in his career, 131 WHIP. He’s not a good pitcher. He was awful last season in 2020, didn’t pitch last year. We haven’t seen him in a long time, this just seems like one of those games where he gets teed up on. Maybe a run line of first five, a team total over.
If you like the Braves, you’re not going to get a no from me. Aníbal Sánchez, he’s been around a long time. My God, he’s been pitches since 2006. I was a junior in high school in 2006, think about that. That’s how long he’s been pitching, my God. What a career. Got to give him credit.
TC Martin:
Well like you said, this guy did not play last year because the Nationals didn’t want him. Really nobody wanted him and you go back to 2020, ERA was over six. I think it was like 6.61 or something like that. So no, this guy hasn’t been good and now you’re getting his first start basically in two years. It’s an automatic go against, isn’t it guys? Especially with the Braves, especially with that offense. Yes the Braves, they swing and miss a lot but can they be patient with a guy who hasn’t pitched in two years and is not very good?
And then when you get rid of Sanchez, you would think okay, maybe he’s going to have a pitch restriction here. I know he had a couple rehab starts in the minors, but he didn’t pitch that many innings there. So great, then you get into the Washington bullpen. So it really does scream like a good play for the Braves here, but the price is going to affect that. And again, I hate the run line, but visiting team run line might make some sense here. But that’s the way I would look at this game.
Mark Borchard:
TC though, do you think the Nationals offense is as bad as they’ve been this year?
TC Martin:
[inaudible 00:39:34] with the Nationals offense. You got guys like Soto and Bell are nice hitters. But especially Bell, he’s a swing and missed type of guy, they just can’t string together long at bats with having three, four or five guys hit in a row. There’s too many dead spots. So they got a couple nice bats. But when you look at this thing from one to eight or one to nine, there’s just so many automatic outs in this lineup and I think that’s the problem with the Nats.Mark Borchard:
I think that Juan Soto’s a little bit better than a nice bat…
TC Martin:
But you can pitch around him, you can pitch around him.
Mark Borchard:
And Cruz has been, talk about a guy whose ISO power is way down is Cruz. Cruz is 41 years old, so you think is he done? So that’s the debate and is he going to regress back to the positive or is he just too old? And so you got to take a leap of faith, I guess, if you think he’s going to regress to the better and I do just based on his long term stats and how that works. But I couldn’t believe how old he was, talk about old guys he’s 41.
TC Martin:
Been around a long time. A career DH. Okay quickly. Padre’s, Rocks today. Any thoughts, Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I’ll say this always. At home against a lefty, I’m always going to be looking at Colorado. It’s one of those kind of split situations that you’re looking for. Colorado are facing a lot of lefties but there’s a rule, I just can’t bet this team on the road no matter who they’re facing. They’re not on the road, this is a day game in Coors. Freeland is a guy that he’ll give up runs, he’s just a guy that does that. It is warm, it is nice and it is hitting weather in Colorado. Blake Snell, he’s been solid but as we know, I throw out the stats when we get into Coors. Over would be on the menu to me here. Colorado is very good against lefties at home almost, they’re like in the 300s in that split. So yeah, I would be looking towards the over here
TC Martin:
Timmy two shoes, he wants to comment on the Royals and Jays today. I was real close to playing the Jay’s yesterday and you know why I was going to play the Jay’s yesterday guys? The same thing with the Phillies and all that other stuff, Charlie Montoya, they let him go. Now you get the interim manager who steps in, Hey, you’re going to play hard or whatever and sure enough the Jay’s do win yesterday. Are we going to see another one of these type of runs? Who knows. We saw it with the Angels earlier on when Nevin took over for Madden, we saw it obviously when Gerardi left for Rob Thompson. Could we see it here? But the big question here is Gaussman. What kind of Gaussman are we going to get today basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Well I think the big question is who is Kansas City going to put into the lineup? Because they’ve got five guys restricted.
TC Martin:
I don’t think they have a picture listed, is this game even on the board?
Mark Borchard:
I’ve got Carlos Hernandez in there against [inaudible 00:42:40]. Carlos Hernandez, we talked about it. He’s not in the Baserunner at 150 because he’s a spot starter, but if he was he’d be the last or the second to last pitcher there. So this is a very interesting game, I’m glad that he asked the question. A good question, by the way, because this is the highest price I’ve ever seen in my model period at -628 for the blue Jays. But I want to go into this lineup because this is kind of how I did it. I don’t know who they’re bringing up so I had to go replacement player in five spots. So it’s replacement versus right, five spots, Bobby Witt Jr. Vinny Pasquantino who I like actually. Manuel Rivera and Nicky Lopez.
So probably one of the worst lineups you’ll ever see in Major League Baseball, period, against a pitcher who I’ve got in my top 10. So that’s why you’re getting that -628. Now I don’t know, I see a pirate line out there like -330. Is it worth laying -330? Maybe it is from a percentage standpoint, but I thought that was amazing. And so it’ll be interesting to see who they’re going to even put in the lineup. What a quandary that Kansas City’s in right now, who are they going to bring up? How are they going to play this?
TC Martin:
So for those that you not aware, what Baserunner’s talking about here, the Royals have several, many unvaccinated players not allowed to go into Canada and play this game against the Blue Jays today. Again, not to get political here guys but I don’t understand this. You’re not being vaccinated, every other team pretty much has all of their players vaccinated and the Royals have what eight, nine guys? It’s crazy here. I don’t know. And we went through that with basketball, Jeff, as we know as well too. It’s a crazy conversation. But anyway, any thoughts on that?
Jeff Nadu:
And this to me, this is unfair in my opinion. This is the continued problem and look, I’ve said for a long time, I’m not trying to discriminate against Canada but I don’t understand why we have one team in Canada and everyone else in the United. I just don’t. I never have, I never will. It’s stupid. And this is the kind of things that are affected by it. You look at who’s actually out, it’s not ideal either. Whit Merrifield, Benintendi. These are some of the better players that a bad team has.
TC Martin:
Top of the order, yeah.
Mark Borchard:
The guy guys out are Melendez, Gallagher, Isbel, benintendi, Taylor and hunter Dozier. I mean, that’s the whole fricking lineup. It’s crazy.
Jeff Nadu:
You also have no depth which now you’re taking your depth and putting them in starting positions, you have guys that you’re bringing up. It’s just a mess. I feel bad for the Royals and this is a spot that Toronto’s been able to hurt teams with. That being said also, I think Baserunner makes a good point. This is something I think you just throw in your parlays. I don’t see any situation where the Royals win. This is an awful spot and they’re not a good team to begin with, this is a team that Toronto’s playing well.
Guys, I actually had a real world experience with this very similar topic yesterday. I have to go to the bank yesterday, listen to this story this is crazy. I don’t ever go to the bank, really. I don’t really ever have a need but it was my birthday, I was given cash. It is what it is. I had to go to the bank for something else. I go to my branch. There’s a sign on the door that says “We’re closed.” There’s no reason given. So I go to another bank five miles away, same bank and I say, “Hey yo, why is this branch closed?” “Oh, they have three people out because of coronavirus and two people are on vacation.”
And I said to the teller, I said, look I know this isn’t your decision, I’m just speaking out loud here. But how long as a society are we going to do this? We’re going to put at risk our businesses, we’re going to do all this stuff for something that, I asked her. If you had the flu and you needed money, would you come to work? She said, yeah, I would. And they looked at me like I was crazy, how are you going to say this? But I’m guessing this is three years now. How long as a society.
Mark Borchard:
I agree, Jeff. That’s a really good a point, I totally agree with you. And welcome to 2022 where people just close their business because they just can’t get staff. And you’ll see restaurants, man. I went to a wok place, they have a great wok and I was really in the mood for it. I go over there, there’s a sign on the door, closed for staffing issues. And not the first time I’ve seen that. So I’m glad you brought that up because that’s welcome to 2022.
Jeff Nadu:
And I’m going to say this right now, I’m not these conspiracy theorists. I’m not one of these and again, people will paint you as that because you don’t agree with them. I’m just speaking as a common sense American who does not like either side nor care. I’m asking the question of, I followed all the rules. I wore the mask, I got the vaccines, I got a booster for God’s sakes. At what point as a society are we going to pull back how we deal with this? It’s crazy to me. If you’re at risk, you obviously have to take precautions. But if you’re at risk, you can’t eat something because you’re allergic, we’re not going to just completely change the way we do business because someone’s allergic to something. It’s just not happening. If I’m at risk I’m going to take the precautions, but not having 10 baseball players playing game because they as human beings don’t want to get a shot? I don’t know. How long are we going to do this for?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. You bring up a good point. As somebody who’s been vaccinated and who’s had COVID it’s like, okay, well I guess maybe I’ll get it again. But life goes on, right Jeff? I think that’s the point you’re trying to make.
Jeff Nadu:
No, it’s exactly the point I’m making. Especially in sports where, TC, how many times have you seen on a January NBA card flu-like symptoms? They’re out for a day or two because in the last month or so I’ve had this. I was sick for like two, three days and then I started feeling better. And what do we care about these variants? They’re not serious, you might feel a little bit for a few days and then you’re back to normal. I’m not negating what coronavirus is, obviously it was bad for a long time. But at some point we as a society need to figure it out and find something that works for everybody.
TC Martin:
You know what Jeff was telling that story, in the beginning I was having the flashback to a Seinfeld episode when Nana was trying to cash the checks. Were you cashing Nana’s checks yesterday? Jeff on your birthday? And happy belated birthday.
Jeff Nadu:
No, I got to tell you there is one… thank you. There’s one thing about another thing about society I’m sick of, banks are the worst. They really are the worst. They make it impossible to do what you want to do. It’s just amazing. You do this, you got to go through 6,000 hoops to get something else done. It really is a wild concept that we have. They charge you if you take out too much money. You could go to a bank right now and let’s say you want $50,000 in cash. You could go to arguably 9 out of 10 banks and they would not be able to give it to you. What kind of wild society are we in where you have money but you can’t take it out? And they’ll actually not allow you to take out your own money. Think about that.
Mark Borchard:
Is that $50,000? Is that a night out at a strip bar for you, Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
No, I’m just saying. Mark, if you go to your local bank right now and you said Hey, I need $10,000, I’m buying something. They probably wouldn’t be able to give it to you. I worked at a bank, I worked at a bank for years. We didn’t have the capability to handle large withdrawals on most occasions. It’s crazy.
TC Martin:
All right guys, let’s rock and roll here. Ty, no one is liking Detroit plus a run and a half today. We don’t like the Tigers at all.
Mark Borchard:
In all seriousness, I went that route over the weekend and it didn’t work out very well for me. This Detroit team’s just awful [inaudible 00:50:52].
Jeff Nadu:
[inaudible 00:50:52].Mark Borchard:
Elvin Rodriguez. Not Elvis, Elvin.
Jeff Nadu:
Who the hell’s Elvin Rodriguez?
TC Martin:
He’s not really to Elvin Bishop, there’s an old school music reference for you Baserunner.
Mark Borchard:
Wow, that’s a pull TC. Good pull on that one.
TC Martin:
We know that Jeff fooled around and fell in love, so there you go.
Jeff Nadu:
TC, Elvin Rodriguez, he had the worst star possibly in the league this year, Yankees on June 3rd. 4.1, he gave up 11 hits and 10 earned runs. Four home runs. Is that the worst start this season? That’s got to be.
TC Martin:
That is the worst start. There’s another one that somebody gave up doubled digit runs as well too earlier on. I remember it was another one [inaudible 00:51:32].
All right best MLB bets today, guys, let’s lock them in and let’s go get it today. So Jeff is Corbin Burnes over 7.5 strikeouts today in the game against the Giants. Basewinner, myself, we’re on the Dodgers going against Dakota Hudson. We’re also involved in the Astros game. I’m taking Houston and Framber Valdez against Detmers and Basewinner is on the over in that game, over 8.
All right guys, appreciate it as always. We’ll be back at it again tomorrow. Remember like, subscribe the show, hit the bell, get the notifications when we go live. And we do it Monday through Friday, right here on BetUS TV, the MLB show. For Jeff, the Basewinner, TC [inaudible 00:52:13], so long. We’ll catch you tomorrow at noon.
