- <MLB>
Jeff:
…been playing better ball of late is a little bit shaky.
TC:
Yeah. Three straight games of the Yankees have blown late leads; the two against Boston on Saturday and Sunday. They have the off day Monday. Then regroup, they scored three runs. They had many chances to pad. They did not, and Gerrit Cole was fantastic for seven innings, but they pull them out of the game, then they go ahead and you get King, who’s actually been their best relief pitcher as of late, and then Clay Holmes. To me, Clay Holmes is starting to look like the Clay Holmes from Pittsburgh, and then you get Peralta after that. That’s not good, because he’s worse, but the Yankees were 49 and O when leading after 8 innings. So yeah, it was definitely a hard one to swallow, but bigger picture, and I’ve talked about this before, with the Dodgers bullpen, the Yankees bullpen.
I mean, this is the second time the Yankees have had a three game losing streak, and all six games, they blew late leads like this, and we talked about Aroldis Chapman the other day, about how he’s basically a non-factor. We’ve seen him in middle relief now, but yeah, when you get to that Yankee pen right now, it is not automatic at all. So I don’t know what was more surprising, that, or I don’t think any of us had action in the game last night between the A’s and the Rangers, but to see that game go extra innings, and that was crazy, and the A’s score 8 runs in the top of the 12th inning. So I mean, a couple wild ones, but this is baseball. Jeff, any thoughts on those games, or anything else from last night?
Jeff:
Yeah, I mean, [inaudible 00:01:34] the A’s haven’t scored eight runs combined in the last five or six games. So I mean, I didn’t think they were capable of doing something like that, but here we are. Astros win again. I mean, it’s kind of what they do. I mean, they just continue to prove that this is, to me, on paper, and I think in the end, will be the best team in baseball. Now how about the Orioles? Another win for that group. We talked about them yesterday. Nine now in a row. Cedric Mullins had a nice game. Urías had a great game. What a performance from Jordan Lyles.
I didn’t think he was capable of this sort of thing, but when things are going well for a team, everything seems to go well. If you told me last night that even against the lowly Cubs, that Jordan Lyles would go seven, only giving up two runs. For him, that’s a great night. Five strikeouts. How about that? And I’ll tell you, we talked about this way early in the year. The one thing that Baltimore has, that a lot of these bad teams don’t, is a bullpen. They have a good bullpen, and that’s one of the reasons they’re winning these types of games, and it’s one of the reasons they’re starting to go, because their lineup’s starting to hit. They’ve got decent starting pitching. They’ve got a great bullpen. Shout out to Baltimore. What a great run this has been.
TC:
Yeah. I mean this team, nine in a row now. They get to the 500 mark. That might not seem like a big deal to a lot of people, but in that clubhouse, it’s a real big deal, and who would’ve thought? When was the last time, guys, that we have seen the American League East had everyone 500 or better, as we approach the middle of July here? So yeah, Orioles are a team that you got to be [inaudible 00:03:04] with, and a team that we got to start looking to bet on, if you haven’t already.
Jeff:
We talk about the Orioles because I actually watched, I hadn’t seen it in years, that film Major League. I haven’t watched him forever, and I’m looking at this Orioles team, and I could have sworn I’ve heard recently that there’s been talk that they may move the Orioles at one point. They kind of have a feel of that team in that film, the Indians, where they were terrible, and they had an owner no one liked, and they were just a ragtag group, and all of a sudden, now they’re finding a way. Look, I don’t think they’re going win the AL Pennant or anything, but they may make the playoffs. I think we got to start talking about that.
Scott:
The Baltimore Orioles got a couple of really big wagers in the last couple of days to win the American League and to win the World Series, believe it or not, and we’re talking deep pocket bets on Baltimore. Do I think that it is necessarily a smart bet? No, I don’t, but you hit one of the keys on the head. If you are going to make a deep run, and this is going to be more than just a flash in the pan, it has to be a decent bullpen behind your starting pitchers, and they have had that. And winning begets winning. I mean, they come out there expected to win every game now.
I mean, usually, after game three of the season, the Baltimore Orioles don’t expect to win every game when they step on the field. So 23 and 14 since June 1st; nine game winning streak. Again, I mean, they’re right there, and it’s like every team, like you said, TC, in the AL East has a chance to make the post-season with the wild card in play. Now all those teams are vying for a post-season spot. So listen, more power to them, and again, it’s not like they’re doing it with smoke and mirrors, when you got a pen that can shut teams down, and carry a lead through the ninth inning, and get that win.
TC:
All right. All right, guys, let’s take a look at our tote board, and then we’ll get into today’s games. We are going to handicap four games on the docket today. Had that loser in the Yankee side, on the run line, yesterday, kind of a heartbreaker. Jeff ended up splitting yesterday.
Jeff:
I’m kicking myself for Fred in that Minnesota game.
TC:
Yeah, blame the base winner. He probably talked you into it, right?
Jeff:
I mean, I don’t know how you only manage two runs against Jason Alexander, and it’s so sickening, because the Giants, I mean, they scored so many runs. I mean, they’re still scoring runs; brutal.
TC:
Yeah. Yeah, and then again, the Giants, it’s like, “What are you going to get with the Giants?” They erupt against San Diego. Hey, they carried that over, and well, they didn’t carry it over on Monday night. They got beat by the Diamondbacks, but then they erupted again last night. So I said it yesterday, the Giants are finally healthy. I mean, you got Crawford, you got Belt back in the lineup. Maybe we got to start looking at them. Logan Webb with a nice start last night as well, too. So that was a good spot for the Giants last night.
All right, guys, let’s look at today’s action. Let’s start with the Philadelphia Phillies and the Toronto Blue Jays; short two game set here. Toronto looking for a little mini sweep here. Stripling’s on the hill for Toronto going against Zack Wheeler for the Phils, and Toronto, $1.12 favorite in this one. The total is 8; $1.15 to the underside in this game. Jeff, start us off here as we look at the Phillies and Wheeler, and Toronto and Stripling. The Jay’s playing a little bit better baseball right now than the Phillies. I don’t know, handicap this for us.
Jeff:
Yeah. I mean, I think for me with the Phillies, being obviously, in this area, hearing kind of who they are and what they are, I think we have to just realize, this is a 500 type of team, okay? They may be a few games above by the end of the year, they may push for a wildcard, but in the end, this is a team with a lot of flaws. Now, today, they’ve got their guy on the mound, the guy that is their ace, and a guy that’s been absolutely terrific, quite frankly. That being said, I’m not interested in the Phillies’s full game. I’m just not. I know over the years how ineffective this bullpen is. I know how ineffective this ownership is, and not adding the right people to it.
And you look at Wheeler. I mean, he’s just been elite, particularly over the last couple of starts. Last two starts against St. Louis, 14 innings. Didn’t give up a run. He was just exquisite. The problem you also have with the Phillies right now is some of the lineup problems. Mark mentioned that Bohm’s out, Bryce Harper’s out, but with how good Wheeler’s been with the fact that Stripling just isn’t really a strikeout pitcher, seemingly. 104k’s for Wheeler. Pretty impressive. If I’m going to get him at this price, I’m going to look at a first five, just to be up, or to not be down. Wheeler’s the better pitcher. This is a pretty good lineup. I’m hoping they could scratch a runner or two out, but I have no interest in a full game played with the Phillies, because you look at Sunday; prime example. Upping the game; what happens? Bullpen blows it. I’m just not interested in their bullpen.
TC:
Bullpen, it’s like a four-letter word for me, guys, with a lot of these teams, and you definitely get that with both of these teams. Scott; Phillies, Toronto, any thoughts?
Scott:
Yeah, if you’re under the old all-star snub theory, you’re two and one thus far after Dylan Cease won game two yesterday, or at least the Tigers did when he was on the mound, and the Sox. So I’m looking at this game, and I’m going, “All right, the all-star snub theory has worked well for more than a decade.” We talked about this the other day, just the fact that guys get extremely motivated if they were snubbed and they have all-star numbers. That would be Zack Wheeler, so if he wins, they go to three and one so far this week with the snub pitchers. I’m more of a first five under guy in this game. Having said that, I lean under.
It’s not an official play. I don’t have it thus far. I might get involved a little bit later with either Philly or the under when it comes to the first five innings, but he’s at one shaky start, Wheeler, in his last 10 games, and they’re splitting hairs. When you mention anything negative about this guy in 2022. Hard to hit and barrel numbers are as good as it gets; 33% and 5% respectively for Zack Wheeler. They don’t get much lower than that. There’s a couple of the pitchers out there, and that’s it, that can combine both the barrel and the hard hit rates in the neighborhood of his numbers. So he is been fantastic.
It’s got to be interesting because Toronto’s numbers over the last month at home against righties are fantastic. Number one or number two in batting average OPS wOBA. Weighted runs create a plus in the spot, so you got strength against strength. I think Wheeler will get the job done as far as keeping this team in check for the first half of the game. So for me, I think it’s a lean on the under in the first four or five innings. You want Stripling to be able to counter and hold the Phillies in check a bit. Jeff mentioned they’re a little bit banged up, which hurts them at the plate. So if I had to play this game, that’s the way I would go; first five innings under the total.
Jeff:
If I could just say one thing, TC, and Scott touched on it. It is an absolute travesty that Zack, Wheeler’s not in the all-star game. It seriously is, okay? Now, look, I’m not going to knock Max Fried. I’m not. He’s in a good season, a great season, actually, but if you’re looking at strictly numbers, Wheeler’s been better than Max Fried. He just has, okay? Not by a ton, but he’s been better. I know it’s difficult, because there’s been some great pitchers in the NL; Alcántara, Corbin Burnes, obviously, Musgrove, Gonsolin. They’re all worthy, and look, so is Fried, but to not have Wheeler in there, I think that’s crazy, but I think he has a good way of thinking about it. People like Wheeler aren’t going to get down on themselves; they’re just going to continue to pitch well. They’re professionals, and they’re consummate guys, and they’re going to do that. It’s a disgrace, though, I think.
TC:
Yeah, I mean, the first guy off, I guess the wait list, so to speak, was Rodón for the Giants, and he got in because of the injury today, but again, they bypassed Wheeler in that, so yeah, it’s tough, and it’s hard to make a case. I mean, who would you take off? And-
Jeff:
Fried.
TC:
Yeah, I guess Fried, but again, solid year, solid team. I don’t know. I mean, that is a tough call. I know it’s-
Scott:
And we’ve seen year after year, pitchers who should be in the all-star game that gets snubbed because of the rosters. Again, we talked about this, we won’t spend much time on it, the other day, about expanding the all-star roster, even if a guy doesn’t get in the game.
TC:
I mean, it can’t hurt, right?
Scott:
And if Fried was left off, and I get what Jeff’s saying, but if Fried’s left off, he’s an all-star snub. So I just think you expand the rosters a little bit, and give that guy that all-star nod, whether he ends up coming in the game or not.
Jeff:
Also, why is Luis Castillo on it over Zack Wheeler? Louis Castillo has pitched 71 innings; Zack Wheeler has pitched 95. He’s got better numbers with a lot bigger sample size, and all due respect, no one on the Reds should be in the all-star game. Sorry.
TC:
That is why [inaudible 00:11:51].
Jeff:
That’s stupid. I don’t care about that stupid, lame rule. This team sucks. I don’t want to see Reds on the, on the all-star. I’m sick of this participation trophy crap. We don’t need them. I don’t need the Reds. Good season, but he’s only pitched 71 innings. Give me a break.
TC:
Yep, and that’s why he’s there, because of that rule. Exactly. All right, guys, let’s go to the next game here, and let’s take a look at Cincinnati and the Yankees. We touched upon last night’s game, the way the Reds came back on this one. We’ll do it again here today at Yankee Stadium, and Mike Minor taking the hill for the Reds today; Luis Severino going for the Yankees. Of course, it’s a 3-20 favorite in favor of the Yanks. The total in this game is 9 minus $1.20, shaded towards the under in this game. We mentioned how the Yankees have lost three straight games. Last time, guys, Severino was on the mound, last Wednesday, the Yankees were kind of in a similar situation. Oh, it was 16, nothing in that game, so don’t know if that’s going to happen tonight, but I know Scott and I are kind of banking on that, and hoping for something like that in a run line situation. Scott, go ahead and start us off with the Yankees/Reds.
Scott:
I’m a little surprised and happy to see that it’s only minus $1.55 on that runs line, because last night when I was handicapping the game, I thought, we’re talking about these four games. There’s a couple that I could actually look at as a best bet. Two games we haven’t talked about, the other one that I was looking at. Man, I hope this isn’t $1.80 on that runs line by morning, by the time we shoot the show, so…
TC:
That’s what I thought it was going to be. Yeah, yesterday and today [inaudible 00:13:23].
Scott:
Yeah, the fact that it’s $1.55 is both surprising and I’m happy about it. Fat, juicy price; no doubt about it. I get it, but it’s that or nothing in this game, right? I mean, you either pass this game or you do that; you lay the runs line. They ought to be a little bit fired up, again, after what happened last night in the ninth inning. You take a three-nothing lead at home against the Reds, I don’t care that the Reds of one of few games of late, it’s still the Reds, and you find a way to blow it in the ninth inning. TC, you hit on it at the top of the show. They looked home free, and considering the opponent, you’d think they would’ve wrapped it up, but they draw [inaudible 00:13:55] today, so they got a good chance at bouncing right back.
He is 1 and 6 as is, his team, and his seven starts; ERA approaching 7. He’s got, guys, a home runs per nine innings pitched ratio of 2.84, given up almost 3 home runs per 9 innings pitched going to the Bronx against this team. Minor’s WAR, his wins above replacement, is negative. It’s negative 0.4. The Yankees are not quite as good at home against southpaws as they are against righties, but Minor is a mess, and I think he makes up for that. [inaudible 00:14:31] been bad on the road against righties all season. Severino has been fantastic in his last four home starts.
So it was, for me, the Yankees on the runs line or nothing. The fact that it’s only $1.55 on that price. I like them here. I think they get the job done. I’ve talked about it, maybe not on this show. We haven’t been on enough to really get into it, and I’ll make it quick, but if you do your numbers and your lines, and you see, let’s say, $1.70 favorite that, in your lines of power ratings, you think got to be $2.20, then for you, you’ve got value on that big favorite. It’s bottom line. I hear guys a lot of times talking about not wanting to lay big prices, yet, will go out and lay $3.50 in a UFC fight. So it’s still the same money, no matter how you look at it, and I do think the Yankees get back and then win this one by two runs or more, guys.
TC:
Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah, I’m going to go a little different tact. I’m going to add a play here. I kind of wanted to, and I’m just going to do it. I never do this, but I’m going to. I’m laying the first five minus a half. I’ll lay the $1.75. I really don’t care. This is, on one hand, the amount of times they do it per year, and I’m kind of taking the same tact as Scott. I just expect them to be up after five. I want to isolate Mike Minor. As he alluded to, in 38 innings. Mike Minor has given up 12 home runs. I mean, in seven games, that’s crazy, and what do we know about the Yankees? If they are facing a picture that gives up home runs, it’s going to be a bad night for whoever the Yankees are facing. Throw in the fact that I’m getting Severino, who is terrific. I don’t really need to go much into this one, but look, if the Yankees don’t have the lead after five, or are tied, so be it.
TC:
All right. I was looking at the first five of this too, but I think the price that I saw was a lot steeper than what you said there, so if that’s the case, then that’s very inviting as well, too. But again, just to add to the couple numbers that you mentioned, Scott, regarding Minor, he’s given up four runs and four of his last five starts. Here’s the stat that really sends me here: he’s given up 20 runs and 34 hits during that timeframe as well, too. I mean, if the Yankees can’t bang this guy, I can’t see the Yankees blowing this thing again. Hopefully this game is done early, and I don’t have to look at Holmes, or I don’t have to look at Peralta, and there’s really no need to overthink this game.
I mean, the Yankees should win this game going away. Bottom line is, we’re going with the better team, and you hit on something, Scott, that I just want to hit the nail on the hammer here as well, too. I want to see them have some pride. They’ve been embarrassed the last three games; three games, the two on Saturday and Sunday, on national television, against your rival against, against Boston, and then last night; they should be embarrassed, and hopefully they have some pride. They’re going to go out there and make a statement here tonight and win going away. And again, why is Aaron Judge sitting out of the game? You had a off day on Monday.
Why is Aaron Judge sitting out last night? Oh, then they throw him in there as a pinch hitter. You had a chance to walk him, and of course, he swings at a three-two pitch in the dirt. Yeah, it doesn’t make sense, and Aaron Boone’s saying, “Well, we’re trying to be cautious.” Cautious for what? I mean, you had an off day on Monday. You’re at home. There’s no travel involved here. So yeah, I’m still bitter about those last three games. Send a message, hammer them home, and as far as Severino goes, we didn’t even touch about Severino. This guy has gone at least six innings in just about every start this year; mismatch, total mismatch. So yeah, I’m on the run line with the Yankees here.
Scott:
One of those losses, TC, against Boston over the weekend was not even really the pen’s fault. If you remember, it was LeMahieu who had a hole in his glove
TC:
In that part, right.
Scott:
He missed two popups; two.
TC:
Right.
Scott:
And it kept the innings going, and allowed runs to come across. In fact, Chapman, he gets out of a bases-loaded jam, I think. Was it Chapman, when LeMahieu made that last error that [inaudible 00:18:21]?
TC:
Yeah, it was like in the fifth or the sixth. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Scott:
Yeah, and again, you get out of that without giving up a run, instead, he drops the baseball on a popup to shallow center field that he should not have called off the center field, or that was the center fielder’s ball. So one of those two losses over the weekend was certainly LeMahieu keeping the red Sox inning going by making really bad plays in the field, but after last night, I do think they come out in a little bit of fire, and as you mentioned, Aaron Judge gets a rest day for some reason yesterday. I guess I get it. When you’re leading your division by double figures in games, you can kind of rest guys a little bit, but off an off day is what bothers me, as it did you, I can tell.
TC:
Right. Yeah.
Scott:
You get that day off, you’re going to come back, you’re going to be ready to go, and instead, takes another day off, so he’ll be in the lineup tonight.
TC:
Yeah, no doubt. All right, I’m down with a run line on this, Scott is down on the run line with this as well with the Yankees, and then Jeff’s got a first five play on the Yankees. So we’re sweeping the board with the Yankees here. Let’s have a nice, comfortable one here today, guys, and get it back. Mixed up the Dodgers and the Cardinals. Tony Gonsolin the all-star, the 11 and 0 Tony Gonsolin on the mound here for the Dodgers, as they travel to St. Louis taking on the Cardinals. Again, Cardinals got the job done last night, had a big lead. Dodgers came battling back.
Cardinals hang on for a seven-six win last night, Dodgers $1.51 favorite today, plus $1.36 for the Cards. Total is 8 in this one, shaded towards the over minus $1.20. Talk about Gonsolin. He’s been good. You know who else has been good, guys, is Adam Wainwright. He pitched two great games, and I mean, great games, against the Phillies. His team scored zero in both of those games, and the last game, Wainwright went the distance, pitched nine innings; didn’t get a win in either one of those. I’m always a little bit leery about that, saying, “Okay, man, this guy’s a hard hug loser two games in a row. He’s at home.” I don’t want any part of this game, but Jeff, break it down for us.
Jeff:
Yeah, I mean, there is one concern, though, a couple concerns, actually. Over his last five games, he’s given up four more runs three different times, and that’s really one of the handicaps here, as far as the last game, he pitched a complete game, and in some of my inspection of his game log, whenever he’s going seven or more innings, generally, in the next start he doesn’t pitch well. He went seven innings against Pittsburgh back on May 20th. The next start, went, 5 gave up 10 hits and 4 runs. You look at a couple other ones.
He struggled off of long outings. He’s an older guy. I’m not knocking the old guys, but in the end, this is a great lineup, but this has a lot to do with Tony Gonsolin, and I’ve been on this many times. I think it’s one of the great catches this year in baseball so far. Tony Gonsolin laying a first five minus a half, and Tony Gonsolin starts in laying first five minus a half. Dodgers are 12 and 4 in those starts in winning the first 5, having the lead. This is something that I’ve been betting. This is something that’s been working.
I laid it probably out of 16 maybe 10 or so times. This is a money-maker. I’m going to be doing it here. I get a great lineup. I’ve got a pitcher, who, look, I think in the second half of the season, if you look at Tony godson’s numbers, are these numbers sustainable, again, over the course of an entire season? His xFIP is crazy, he doesn’t give up home runs, he doesn’t walk anyone, but he doesn’t really strike anyone out. So I have to wonder, when is this going to come to roost? I hope it’s not tonight, but for me, I’m just going to keep betting what works. 12 and 4 in the first 5 minus a half; sign me up.
TC:
All right, Scott?
Scott:
Yeah, I understand why the price has gone up a little bit over the last eight hours or so since I was first looking at this game, because first of all, for what Jeff mentioned, Wainwright doesn’t always… You just saw a guy pitch nine innings, and you don’t expect that to happen again, especially in this day and age, for a guy to go eight or nine innings coming off a nine inning performance. Seven Cardinal pitchers took the mound last night, guys, seven in that seven to six win. So the pen could be a little shaky in this particular game, maybe need a little bit of rest. They didn’t work too much a couple nights ago when Mikolas was on the mound, he actually pitched quite well, went pretty deep, but as far as this game, Gonsolin, I mean, he doesn’t put anybody on base; 51 base runners in his last 71 and 2/3 innings pitched. That goes back about seven starts.
That’s an 0-71 whip over those seven starts. He’s only allowed one home run per every 11 innings pitched on the season. The Dodgers have won each of his last eight starts. The good thing about what Jeff is doing, is he’s going to reduce his price by about 40 cents or so by playing that first half, or excuse me, first five innings minus a half a run, as opposed to laying a $1.50 or so a full game. I can see why the Dodgers’s price has gone up full game. If I was going to jump in, I might go more full game only because what I just said about Wainwright; he pitched those night innings, he’s likely not to go a full nine or even eight again. If you can get him out of there in six innings, then all of a sudden, you got that bullpen that was kind of taxed last night with all those pitchers going. So I lean towards the Dodgers. I certainly wouldn’t go against them in the first five or the full game tonight.
TC:
Yeah, and I actually like both, I like the full game with the Dodgers, and I like the first five as well, too. I think it makes a lot of sense, and it’s a pretty solid handicap as well, too, and for those people who are waiting for Tony Gonsolin to blow up here, and think, “Well, the guy is 11-0. When is this going to stop?” It’s Tony Gonsolin. We’re used to this guy only pitch a couple innings, being a middle reliever, a spot starter. No, this guy is, like you said, Scott, you can’t argue with the numbers, and when you had now 15, 16 starts overall with this guy, and he’s solid, and this is more of a play for me, even though I’m not making an official play here on the show, of the Dodgers bats as well, too.
And again, against that St. Louis bullpen, which more than likely we’re going to see as well, too. Yeah, the dodgers erupted late in this game. I think they kind of carried over today. So I like Jeff’s first five play, and I like your thoughts about the Dodgers overall for the game as well, too, and again, decent price on the road as well, too. For me, $1.50 or so, that’s not bad at all, so… All right, we’ll lock the play in here for Jeff, as he will take the Dodgers in the first five, laying $1.15, just to be ahead after those five inning. All right, next up, guys, the Astros and the Angels back at it again tonight in Anaheim. Cristian Javier going for the Astros, and Shohei Ohtani going for the Angels, and Angels $1.13, favorite, like the Astros are getting plus money plus $1.02. The total in this one is 7 minus $1.15 towards the under in this game. Scott, thoughts? Houston/Angels.
Scott:
I almost made this the best bet. I almost had two today, and I ended up on the Yankees instead, and it’s only because of how fantastic Ohtani has been, but he averages about six innings pitched per start. So he can come out, have a terrific night, and as long as the Angel bats don’t suddenly find a sweet elixir, which it would be hard to imagine they do, against Javier, then the Astros should be in it in the sixth thinning, maybe down a run, maybe tied, and at that point, I would feel pretty good, because then you’d go after that bad Angels pen, and you try to knock them around a little bit.
Listen, the Angels got five runs last night. It wasn’t because they all of a sudden found their bats. Houston committed two errors in that game. It’s in the ninth inning. It goes to the ninth, tied five-five, and I’m pulling what little hair I have left out of my head because they had Houston last night as a short favorite, and they go into the ninth, tied at five and the Angels had two hits, and that’s what they finished for the game. They had two hits, they scored a couple of runs because of a couple of errors, but the Houston Astros came through in the ninth against the Angels pen, and to show you how bad the Angels pen can be, they scored the run to go up six, five. They started the bases loaded with nobody out. That could have got really ugly.
I mean, if you actually, for some reason, took the Angels plus a run and a half, you were sweating your butt off in the top of the ninth inning. So anyway, and then of course the Astros shut down the Angels like nobody’s business at the bottom of the ninth. So as good as Ohtani’s been, at that price, I mean, yeah, okay, maybe I got a pitcher who is really good, and Javier maybe not quite at the level right now of Ohtani on the mound, but not that far off. You don’t want to make a living off the difference. And then I’ve got the Houston bats over the Angels bats. Angels bats have been horrible for a long time now, and I’ve got the Houston pen over the Angels pen.
I mean, TC, I can see why you like this play when I saw your notes, man. I mean, Houston was this close, basically, if I get my finger on the screen here; this close to being a best bet for me, and they are on my card today, though, as far as the plays I’m going to be involved in. Personally, I do have the Houston Astros. So on a real quick note, Houston’s Cristian Javier, I wrote down a couple of the notes. Seven appearances, including a handful of starts against the Angels since 2020. He has held them to a team batting average of $1.70 in those seven starts, 6 home runs allowed, 21 base runners in 26 or 27 innings pitched. I think he takes care of business again.
TC:
Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah, so obviously, I think, you mentioned at the other day, no Alvarez right now, that’s a big sticking point playing the Astros. Look, as I said before, I think this year, he is the best player in baseball, okay? He just is, and not having him, that hurts. That being said, I mean, Javier’s been elite. The bullpen is great, and I think Scott makes a good point about the fact that while Ohtani has been very good, and look, he was very good in two starts very early in the season against Houston, but what we know about the Houston Astros is, back in April, May, I mean that’s a different team than the team now.
So yeah, if you’re going to give me the Astros at a [inaudible 00:28:19] price, I’m going to have interest. Also, guys, you were talking about what a joke this all-star game stuff is. I can’t keep talking about this enough. Explain how you Yordan Álvarez is a reserve! Explain that to me! Abolish this stupid fan voting. Seriously, what the hell are we doing here? This all-star game is just like every other stupid thing. It’s all about popularity nonsense. What a joke. A reserve? I know we can’t play, but give the guy some respect, for Christ’s sakes.
Scott:
It’s been that way forever though, Jeff. I can remember Davey Lopes batting .230 and being an all-star starter back in the day, so it’s kind of like six to one, half dozen another. I love the all-star game. I love the fans get to choose who’s in the game. I just wish they would expand the rosters so guys that get left out, like pitchers who deserve to be there, are on the roster, even if they don’t play, but-
Jeff:
But we’re not talking about a fringe guy here. We’re talking about the best player in the first half of this season, on the best team!
Scott:
Well, I’ll disagree with you just for a second, because the best player in baseball is a guy who has a 2.44 ERA, an 0.99 WHIP, and can hit 40 home runs, and that’s not Yordan Álvarez. I’ll say he’s the best-
Jeff:
Come on, Scott. I mean, Álvarez has been the best player in baseball. Agree with me, TC, please.
Scott:
You cannot call a guy doing Babe Ruth stuff first time in almost 100 years not the best player in baseball. It doesn’t mean he is the most valuable, because his team’s not winning, but I’ll give you an example. Seriously, check this out. You take all the players from Houston, put them on the Angels, except for Álvarez; you take all the players from the Angels, put them on Houston, except Ohtani, all right? Does anything change? Yes, the Angels [inaudible 00:30:09] playoffs, Houston’s sitting at home at the end of the season.
Jeff:
It’s funny.
Scott:
And so that’s why I don’t think all that arguing matters, or debating. You can’t tell me that a really good DH, and I’ll call him probably MVP of the season, if you want to go guy who DH’s a lot, if you want to call him the best player, that’s fine. I get it. Traditionally, year in, year out, the numbers, incredible what Álvarez is doing. I tried to get a friend of me and TC’s, a sports book director, Chuck Esposito, at the Station Casinos here [inaudible 00:30:37] before the season began, to give me 30 to 1 that Álvarez would be the MVP. Of course he didn’t go for that. [inaudible 00:30:44], obviously, but the bottom line is, you cannot say that a guy putting up numbers that haven’t been seen in 100 years-
Jeff:
But it’s funny, Scott, you and I have had this conversation before about you love Mike Trout, which is fair, but it’s funny that these two are on a team that never wins. They never win anything!
Scott:
I just told you, Jeff-
Jeff:
That being said, you also mentioned-
Scott:
No, wait, wait, wait. I’m going to explain it again for those that didn’t head the first time.
Jeff:
No, I don’t need hear it.
Scott:
Take all the players from Houston, put them on the Angels, except for Yordan Álvarez, take all the players from the Angels, put them on Houston, except for Mike Trout, and you tell me that the Houston Astros would be in first place and the Angels would be in last. Oh, and then throw in Dusty over Phil Nevin. Come on.
Jeff:
Oh, listen, I will say this; there’s one thing you said that’s crazy. As someone that, I’ve been told many times, I look like a young Babe Ruth. Many people have told me that. There will be no Babe Ruth slander on this show. Babe Ruth is the greatest player in the history of baseball, and everybody knows it.
Scott:
So wait, wait, wait, I’m going to stop you right there for a second. What he did, you said he is the greatest player at baseball; I don’t disagree. I agree with you. So you got a guy doing what he did, the only guy in history of baseball doing what he did, and you’re saying he is not the best player in 2022. So either make up your mind; it’s one or the other.
Jeff:
Yeah, but again, all I’m saying is, and let’s have TC [inaudible 00:32:05]. TC, you’ve agreed with me before that Álvarez has been the best player in the first half of the season, right?
TC:
There’s no question.
Jeff:
I’m not saying he’s the best-
TC:
There’s no question that Álvarez is the best player of the first half of the season.
Scott:
You guys really think that he’s a better player than Shohei Ohtani?
Jeff:
No, Scott, that’s where you’re not understanding. I don’t think he’s ultimately better than Ohtani. Ohtani is the most talented player we have in baseball, for sure, but in the first half of this season, just this season, Álvarez has been the best. That’s my opinion, and that’s what we’re saying. I’m-
Scott:
But he only does one thing, and he does one thing extremely well.
Jeff:
Right.
Scott:
No doubt about it. He does one thing extremely well, and am I going to say he shouldn’t be MVP at the end of the year? No, but he does one thing extremely well. Can you tell me Ohtani does one thing extremely well? He could play the outfield, he can play first, he can DH, he’s pitching. The guy’s got a sub one WHIP. I think in this day and age we forget, and we don’t think about how big this is. This is a once in 100 year event that’s happening in the last two years with this guy.
TC:
So the type of player that Ohtani is, there’s no question, Scott. He is, but-
Scott:
He’s the best.
TC:
But like you said, take nothing away, but I think, to Jeff’s point, and I agree, is one guy is hitting over .300, one guy is hitting .242, like you said, and Álvarez has been phenomenal, and it shouldn’t be one guy over the other it. Shouldn’t be that way, but yeah, Álvarez-
Scott:
[inaudible 00:33:26], and a sub 2.50 ERA. The other guy couldn’t pitch a single inning.TC:
Yeah, I know.
Jeff:
Okay, so say he’s a great pitcher, but he’s not been a good hitter this year. It’s that simple.
Scott:
He’s hitting about .245 ish, and he’s probably going to hit 40 home runs; not as good as Álvarez, but you can’t even compare it, because Álvarez never takes the mound, right? And he’d get shelled.
Jeff:
Well, I mean, again, you’re talking about someone that-
TC:
You can’t compare him to anybody, because no one’s doing what Ohtani [inaudible 00:33:51].
Jeff:
Right, right. Exactly.
Scott:
Then he’s the best player of the season! Nobody’s doing what he can do!
Jeff:
Yeah, but this-
Scott:
It’s not even close.
Jeff:
But you can agree, though, that putting him as an alternate is laughable. It just is.
Scott:
Well, I agree. He shouldn’t be an alternate. He should be starting. We absolutely can end this debate on a 100% agreement that he should not be an alternate.
TC:
Okay. Now how about back to the game tonight. How’s that, guys? Let me say something about Ohtani, and Scott, your handicap is identical to mine, so I won’t repeat a lot of it, but I will say, Ohtani is one and one against the Astros. Both of those were April starts, like Jeff mentioned. One wasn’t real good. It was four innings. He got knocked out of the game in that game. The second start was very good. He lasted six innings, and that’s why I’m on the Houston Astros in this as a underdog, even though you’re not getting probably as much money as you would think, but the reason we’re getting it, because the Astros are so much better than the Angels.
And you just want this game to be close, because Ohtani is probably not going to go past the sixth inning in this game or the seventh inning. And then, you’re going to run into the Angels bullpen, but like I said, both of those starts were in April. LA was a much better team at that point in time, and now they stink, and overall guys, Ohtani’s one in three against the Astros, the last two seasons, with an ERA of 4.75. They’re not scared of him, and again, one of the reasons why I don’t let Ohtani factor into my handicap really. Now, it does factor in that there’s no Álvarez. There’s no Brantley, and I know Brantley’s been out for now two weeks.
That’s a big deal when you lose your number two and four hitters, but for some reason, the Astros continue to get games from Peña, and Díaz, and Jake Meyers and people like that. Bottom line is, the Angels can’t hit. They can’t pitch. They’re playing young players. I mean, look at this lineup last night; it’s a joke. Houston is eight and three against the Angels this season. Last night you mentioned it, Scott, they got two hits. They got two hits against García and everybody else, and as far as Javier goes, 21 strikeouts against the Angels in 12 innings pitched going back to this year. He’s allowed only one run. That one run was a home run, and the last time he faced the Angels, he had 14 strikeouts. They can’t hit him, so-
Scott:
I think he had no walks, too, right?
TC:
Yeah, exactly.
Scott:
[inaudible 00:36:09], no walks.TC:
Houston’s a better team. We’re going to get plus money, and just because of the name Ohtani, that’s why we’re getting this.
Scott:
Of course.
TC:
Yeah. Yeah, so [inaudible 00:36:18]-
Scott:
Same thing last night with Syndergaard. Syndergaard at home is really good, and so Houston was a short favorite, and just like this game, and by the way, Jeff, I’ll be rooting for Ohtani to get knocked out in the first inning.
Jeff:
Sure.
Scott:
So I’m not rooting for him just because I think he’s the best player. My money’s on the other side, but the bottom line is like last night and tonight because of who’s on the mound for this team, for a very bad baseball team. You got Houston as a short fave last night. You’re getting them around even money at this point. It’s come down, because folks have been betting on the Astros overnight into the morning, but again, I think it’s a situation where team-wise, and we talked about this, TC, [inaudible 00:36:53] I said earlier, Ohtani has been averaging about six innings pitched per start.
So even if he has a good outing, we get that horrible team the rest of the way, the final three innings, and I’ll say one more thing about Ohtani, and again, I hope he gives up eight runs in the first inning tonight, but the bottom line is, is that, what are they, five straight wins when he starts? This is a team that has like 10 wins and 38 losses in the last 48, or something like that, yet they’re 5 and 0 when he takes the mound. I just hope he gets beats tonight, and I look at this as an entire team thing over an individual tonight, and even without Álvarez, I would much rather have the Astros at this price.
Jeff:
You look at the leveling up, TC and Scott, that Ohtani will do in basically a seven year period. In 2017/2018, Ohtani made the league minimum, $545,000 a year. This year, he’ll make about $3 million. It’s conceivable to think that over the next two seasons, Shohei Ohtani may make $50 million a year. He goes from $550K a year to $50 million a year. That’s leveling up, and good for him.
Scott:
Yeah, and fortunately for Ohtani, because obviously, I love to see great players, and fortunately for Ohtani, he’s only got one more year left to be in Anaheim, and he made it clear this last off-season, you better build to win or I’m gone.
TC:
Right.
Scott:
He could be a Yankee. I mean, I want him to stay out here on the west coast, because I want to be able to drive down to LA and see him playing for the Dodgers, but there’s a good chance, Jeff, that he is going to be in the Northeast and on the east coast after 2023. As far as Trout, I feel sorry for this guy. He is extremely frustrated and he’s stuck, so it’s bad news for Mike, and he’s been around for a decade now. So at least Ohtani’s got a chance to get out, and break out of jail, so to speak.
TC:
All right, I’m taking the Houston Astros here tonight, plus [inaudible 00:38:41] Javier against Ohtani. We’ll see if the Houston bats can, can get the job done here tonight and maybe picking on the Angels pen, plus $1.02 with Houston tonight. All right, questions time, as we go to the chat room. Hit us if you want to talk about any of the games that maybe that we did not cover, and we’ll address those for you here, and remember to follow us each on Twitter, and also at BetUS TV as well, too, and remember, Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern time, the show. Remember to hit that bell, that way you click the bell, you get the notifications when we go live each and every day, 12:00 noon, Monday through Friday, here for the MLB show on BetUS TV. Let’s go. A-Rod has got a question. He says, “Thoughts on the Brewers and the Twins game?” You want to take this one, Jeff?
Jeff:
No, not particularly, but I’ll discuss it. Yeah, this is another one of those, I know you have those day games, these matinee matchups. I’ve never been a fan of betting them. I just think, for me, they’re these games that people, on a work day, just want something to do, and they just bet them. A lot of the time, it’s bad pitching matchups. They’ve got Aaron Ashby against Joe Ryan. Now, Joe Ryan’s been pretty good over nine or 10 appearances. Ashby, I don’t know what I’m going to get there. This series after last night is kind of a weird one to me. I don’t bet any of these teams very often. I still hate the Brewers after that first couple games of the season where they just couldn’t hit. I don’t have much here. I would look elsewhere. There are better games on the card. There’s a lot of great pitchers tonight; musgrove, and Javier, and Wheeler. Look there instead of these guys.
TC:
Scott?
Scott:
Yeah, I’m not going to add to what Jeff said. I 100% agree across the board. It’s just a game that I looked at briefly. I didn’t like it. I lean towards the Brewers a little, and that’s it. I don’t like recommending to play that I, myself am definitely, not going to play, and have no interest in getting involved in. It goes off pretty soon, by the way, at 1:10 PM Eastern, for those who want to jump on board. I’ve got a half a dozen games tonight, and this is certainly not one of them.
TC:
Right.
Jeff:
The only time I’m going to back Milwaukee is Burnes. That’s the only time I’m interested.
Scott:
And he goes tomorrow, I believe, so there you go.
Jeff:
Yeah.
TC:
There you go. Roosevelt’s asking about the Dodgers/Cardinals, the no run prop for the first inning. I don’t know if you guys ever get much involved in, is there a run going to be scored in the first inning or not? Take a look at this game with the two pitchers, Gonsolin and Wainwright.
Jeff:
Not with the Dodgers. They’re a very good first five team. A lot of their numbers, you’ll see runs in the first, and remember if you look at Freddie Freeman’s numbers, he’s very good against Mr. Wainwright, so yeah, I don’t do them too much; once or twice, occasionally, but yeah, if I’m looking at that first five, I’m looking at teams that can’t hit, just poor matchups. I got to look at certain matchups, but that’s not one I’d look at, no.
TC:
Also asking about the Oakland/Texas game tonight. We saw a ton of runs the first two games of this series, the last two nights. What do you expect here today? Oakland/Texas, again, guys, two teams that are very hard to figure out here. Scott?
Scott:
$1.90. I don’t want Blackburn, but $1.90 or so with Gray, I don’t want that either. I mean, there are so many games on the board that are juicier than this. I was a little surprised. I get the reason why that it’s seven and a half on the total, but I was a little surprised that it’s only seven and a half, that you don’t have to lay a little bit more juice on that over. If I was forced to play this game, guys, I would play Oakland/Texas over the total. I am certainly not laying two bills with a team that’s struggling to play 500 baseball, and hey, we could call Mark up. I bet you he’d come on on his day off and just rip the heck out of Blackburn.
TC:
No question, right? Villain number one, as he likes to say, but yeah, those two overs the last two nights were, were pretty easy, and I only put it eight and a half on that game last night, so that was pretty easy getting there, except you just had to wait forever to cash your ticket, because Oakland was batting for about an hour on the 12th inning. I think that game seriously went like four and a half hours. It was insane last night, and talking about spent bullpens from last night.
So they’re going to need Blackburn to maybe go nine or 10 today, which we know is not going to happen, really. Crazy. All right, guys, let’s take a look at the best MLB betting, and let’s recap that for you today, as we get ready for some Wednesday baseball, like the guys mentioned, a couple day games, and then we got a lot of night games here tonight. Jeff is taking the Dodgers in the first five against the Cardinals. He’s on that. Scott and I are both on the Yankees run line, laying the run and a half in this game, and we both also like the Houston Astros tonight, [inaudible 00:43:20] plus $1.02
Jeff:
For the record, just so they know, I added Yankees first five minus half as well. So I’m going to throw that in there, too.
TC:
Okay, there you go. So our crew notes that there, that Jeff is going with the Yankees first five. Again, I like that one, and again I like the Dodgers as well, too, full game, and the first five. So good stuff there, guys. All right, we will be back at it again tomorrow. Remember to check out our sportsbook website. Make sure that you join us. Like we said, click that bell. You get the notifications when we go live here, breaking down major league baseball each and every weekday here on BetUS TV. All right, for Jeff Nadu and Scott Spreitzer, TC Martin saying so long. Enjoy the games tonight. We reconvene tomorrow at 12:00 noon Eastern, right here on the MLB show on BetUS TV.
