Kyle Purviance:

Oh yeah, it’s going to be fun. We had Corbie penciled in to make a guest appearance but he always finds a way to weasel out at the end. So Corbie, what’s the excuse you have for today for not being a part of our special performance at the end of the show?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I would, but the piano is in the room next to me who currently has somebody sleeping in it. So as a nice friend, as a nice human, I’m not going to wake them up. Also, it gets me out of this, so it’s a win-win for me.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, boo to your roommate, just boo boo boo to him. Yeah, look and I got to tell you, I got to thank Mel because last night watching game one, I don’t care about either one of these teams. I’m rooting for Denver, I like it when different teams are in the NBA finals, but last night I wanted that game more than I have wanted any playoff game this entire playoffs. I was more excited for the game, I was more into it. The highs I felt when they started to come back a little bit, and the lows I felt, it was kind of a fun ride and I got my ass kicked and I look stupid and I got to eat some crow, but that’s fine. I want to appreciate him just getting me into the spirit of the game and congratulations to you. I hope your bet does pay off and I hope all your vets pay out in the chat box. We certainly appreciate you guys.

Don’t forget, at the end of the show, Q and A. We’re going to start with the Basewinner Rap, then we’re going to do our best to get to as many questions of yours as we can. Look, we’re going to have some time today because, I don’t know about you guys, but we don’t have a lot of games on the docket. We each have one play today. I thought, I don’t know your opinions, just going over the… Or female or woman. I’m sorry, Mel, you absolutely could be man or woman. So I’m sorry, it’s just Mel, I had a grandpa named Mel, so I just always associate it, but of course it could be short for Melanie. I wasn’t even thinking. Either way, way to kick my. I actually hope you are a woman watching the show because that’s good for diversity here in the show, so thank you very much for that.

But I thought this card was really, really even when I looked at the match-ups, guys. It’s really hard to differentiate who I like Here am I, am I crazy? Did you guys have a hard time coming up with something today? What do you think, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, it was a tough card, but overall I think this is one of the better cards we’ve seen in the baseball season so far. We get a lot of really good pitching and my guy Glasnow is back. He got a Dodgers game in, now he’s back. We get Bassitt versus Verlander, which six years ago would’ve been a good pitching matchup, but there’s a lot. Ohtani versus Valdez, so there’s a lot of good pitching match-ups, but yeah, it’s pretty even across the board overall.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep. Ed Blust is right, I’m rattled. I’m out here rattled. I already lost a bet before I got on the show, I was already down. B-Dub, what’d you think? As I kept going through the games I was like, look, that’s pretty 50/50. Like Corbie says, ooh, that’s a good pitching match-up, ooh, that’s a mediocre pitching match-up but they both stink. It was hard for me to find teams who had a real advantage in my eyes today. Did your model have the same kind of problem or am I crazy?

Basewinner:

No, I mean I think you’re onto something as far as the competitiveness of the card. Is that a kitten I hear in the background?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, my cat has gotten… I don’t know what’s happened. So Kitty Kitty has also gotten very vocal, like my dog. So now when he wants something, he just comes and tells you, it’s really weird. I didn’t want this cat, I got talked into it.

Corbie Craig:

I thought it was a baby this whole time.

Kyle Purviance:

No, no, no, thank God. Oh no, I can’t even say what I was going to say there, but no, it’s not a baby, let’s put it that way. You don’t have to worry about that. We all know what-

Basewinner:

Of course, he can’t do it anymore because of the graphic depiction of his vasectomy that he’s gone over multiple times on the show.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, we’ve talked about that. We’re not allowed to talk about that, Mrs. Basewinner doesn’t like it. No one likes it. The chat box is riled up, ready to go. I love it and I certainly appreciate all you guys out there. Mel’s right, I did get all indignant like, “I’m in this chair,” da da da, and of course I get my butt kicked.

Basewinner:

Well, hold on a second, there was something you said about Jokic not getting the MVP and some other guy, but I don’t know any players. Did the right player do good yesterday for you, Kyle?

Kyle Purviance:

Michael Porter was very good last night. I mean, Jokic was awesome, but Michael Porter was very good, especially early on and he hit some threes. I don’t know if there’s enough to put him in the upper echelon of the MVP but he certainly didn’t hurt his case at all. It was an 11 point game but it really wasn’t even that close. It got depressing but it was good because I was like, wow, I’m feeling an emotion over an NBA game that I didn’t expect to feel any emotion over. So you know, you got to find the lemonade out of lemons and you’ve got to appreciate the little, tiny, small details. I cried the other day, it was Ted Lasso’s last episode, I used to look forward to every… It was a happy little hour of my life every week that I looked forward to, now it’s gone. You got to appreciate those things or you’re going to go crazy.

Nonetheless, I digress, let’s go over our records and get into today’s slate. We’re just treading water here, fellas. We’re treading water just barely above 500. Our win-loss is five games above .500, so can’t complain there. Let’s keep it rolling. Moving on past the record stage, let’s get into the first game. 951, 952, Brewers versus Reds. You have Corbin Burnes on the mound against Williamson, I believe is on the mound for the Reds. Now full disclosure, this game is on the docket because I put it on there and I was going to make a bet and then I said, oh yeah, Corbin Burnes, I’m just not going to do it, -165 favorite, +145 to the Reds, a total of 10 juiced to the under, -115.

I told myself, I’ll take a dabble on this double result and see if I get plus money. When it was -115 I said, absolutely not. Corbin Burnes, as you all know if you’ve been watching this show, is my enemy. We are 100% enemies, we do not get along. He does not ever come through for me. So then I said, screw it, I’m just taking it off. So I have no play on the game because I can’t… By my numbers, I should be backing Corbin Burnes here, but I simply can’t do it. Any thoughts on this game? My initial read was double result for the Brewers, but then I became a chicken. What do you think, B-Dub?

Basewinner:

Well, I’ve got the game price Brewers -111. They’re in the market right now I guess at -177. So there’s a big disparity there. I’m not going to play the Reds. I considered playing the Reds +1.5, but some of these Williamson numbers are atrocious. You look at his strikeout percentage, 17.4%, in the 20th percentile. Barrel rate is 15.4%, in the second percentile. Pitching+, seventh percentile. The one thing that’s concerning a little bit about Burnes is his strikeout percentage. It looks like he’s at 24.7 last 150 plate appearances. It’s not awful, but it’s not vintage Burnes-esque, I guess. But if you look at his pitching +, that’s good, it’s 79th percentile. Stuff+ is 95th percentile and barrel rate is good too, he is in the top quarter there. So I don’t know, I guess I just didn’t have the nuts to back the reds +1.5, so I passed on the game personally.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, I’m going to come off-topic just a tiny bit. So you said nuts right there, you didn’t have the nuts. I’m not talking about mine, but my son and his girlfriend, we were talking about children’s books and how everyone thinks they can write a children’s book, and they were telling me about this author who writes these children’s books that like, “Do you want to come play with my nuts?,” and it’s two squirrels that are playing but the title is very adult. My favorite one, so he has this whole list of these children’s books with inappropriate titles, and my favorite one by far and I still laugh about it this morning, it’s got a family at a campsite and it says, “We are not camping, mom and dad lied, we’re homeless.” I thought it was absolutely hilarious the graphics. Someone is selling this book for $10 and I imagine it does pretty well. But yeah, I backed off too. I wanted a back Burnes here but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. What do you think your, Corbie, Brewers Reds?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, if you wanted the Brewers, you’ve got a bad price now, it was 150 this morning. So wouldn’t play this by any means, but I think Mark brings up a really good point towards this, Reds run line, it’s kind of hard to back a run line to a game that’s projected 10 runs. I think that there’s a lot better cases that you can get value betting a team to cover a run and a half when there’s not expected to be a lot of runs. But here in a small ballpark, the Reds ballpark seems like it has to be… I don’t have the number in front of me, but it has to be a top five runs created ballpark it. It seems like a bad place to back a run line at the price. But yeah, if you wanted the Brewers, missed out on the price. Yeah it’s steamed up, I think it’s Reds or nothing now, but wouldn’t really want to be on the Reds by any means.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I would’ve got some adjusted line value but I’m not ready to be depressed today. As Abe says, I’m going through menopause, you know what I mean? I can’t be having these emotional breakdowns because of Corbin Burnes on Apple TV. It is interesting this game’s on Apple TV, sort of that new thing going on over there and what we talked about yesterday, that big deal going on with the media partners not paying the Major League Baseball teams. The judge did rule that they have to pay those contracts, so that’s good for those teams and good for baseball, certainly for their payrolls, so that’s something they keep in mind. But for this show, look, I had a slight lean here to the Brewers double result. I just didn’t love the number at -115, so I backed away.

Our next game on the docket 955, 956 we’ve got Wheeler and the Phillies, Josiah Gray, the Old Testament, and the Nationals, -185 to Wheeler and the Phillies, +165 to the Nationals. I stole that joke from someone in the chat box, they did it earlier in the year and it was fantastic. Total of nine, right there in the middle. It’s a pickem either way at -110. So Corbie, I went ahead and took a NRFI in this one. Now, I know Jason loves the YRFIs, but this one I like how both pitchers profile. My concern, of course, is the top of that Phillies lineup. With Bryce Harper they do have power there, and both he and Turner have homered off Josiah Gray in the past.

Wheeler mows through the Nationals’ side, in my view. I’m just counting on a little bit of rust. Look, has Gray given up a homer to them? Of course, but still, in 72% of the bats by the top three in their career against Josiah Gray, they’ve gotten an out. I think I’m getting a decent price here. Phillies offense hasn’t really gotten going, they’re in Washington. I’ll take the NRFI at -125. What do you think here, Phillies Nationals?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I think these all are based off price. So if you feel good about the price, by all means. I think the biggest issue with NRFIs is that they’re typically juiced way higher than they should be. That said, we talked you off one the other day and they didn’t score, so by all means, don’t listen to us.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, you guys had me chase the high of the yes and then I didn’t say no like the DARE guy taught me in school.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, so Josiah Gray’s a good picture. Just a quick scroll, I think that I would really like his over 2.5 Walks at +115. He’s a bit crazy. His strikeout props are starting to go up. We talked earlier in the year, you could get a strikeout prop like a juiced 3.5, but now they’re juiced 4.5s, which makes sense for him. So not going to be a guy that I could bet strikeout props anymore, but a walk prop would not surprise me by any means.

Kyle Purviance:

Interesting, a walk prop. I got to tell you, never even heard of the walk prop. I love it when I hear new things that I haven’t done before, and the walk prop is certainly one of them. Am I getting a good price here by the way, Corbie, on this NRFI at -125 or did I get it wrong? Oh boy, I don’t like that look.

Corbie Craig:

It’s not the greatest price, but listen, price sensitivity is a long term basis. We’ll give you one bad price and a win here. It’s seems like the market’s 110.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I took a great price the other day at a loss, but as Jason says, I’ve got to trust the process here. I got to Sixers it up here. But the problem is I got stuck with Ben Simmons in that process, I’m hoping to get Embiid tonight and get a win here. Okay, now we know my price, not great, but we’re going to go for the win here. I just don’t see any runs in the first inning here, I am worried about that Phillies side. Basewinner, what do you think here, Wheeler and the Old Testament?

Basewinner:

I love the Old Testament reference, by the way, but I’m going to go with Philly halftime, full-time -105. Wheeler’s numbers are getting good here. He’s got 26% strikeout percentage, 78th percentile. ISO power’s really good, actually, .130 allowed last 600 plate appearances, 82nd percentile. What I’d like to do with these ISO powered numbers is kind of compare them right now. We have a little bit of data here, enough data I think on barrel rate for the pitcher for this season, and his barrel rate this season is 4.3%. That’s really low, 94th percentile. It’s a lot of good numbers for Wheeler. Gray is a little bit mysterious. I mean, if you look at his strikeout percentage, 17.4, last 150 plate appearances, ISO power is horrible, .221 last 600 plate appearances, but maybe he’s turning it around. His barrel rate’s pretty low, 5.8%, 86th percentile.

One of the things I wanted to talk about in this game before we move on is Kyle Schwarber. Not only has he hit… I wanted to say John Gray, but John Gray’s playing for another team today. Josiah Gray. His numbers at Nationals Park, they’re very impressive. We forget he played maybe three-quarters of a season for the Nationals, so he’s got a pretty decent sample there, 235 plate appearances. Slugging percentage is .670, ISO power is .385. His home run percentage is really close to 10% there. I figure if you just use that and he gets five at bats today, I think that +250 on the home run, I mean it’s a terrible price for a home run, but if you crunch it that way, it’s not that bad. He’s going to be my home run guy today and I’m looking for the Phillies to get it done, even though one thing about the Phillies is they have been awful on the road. I don’t know if I that’s going to continue, gosh, but other than that, it looks good for the Phillies here guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I’m fine with the Schwarber home run, let’s just hope it’s in the second inning, one, two, three. I think he’s hitting in the five hole now that they’ve got Harper back and his batting average has been so low, sub .200 batting average for Schwarber this year. Once he gets going, I think the Phillies will be a little bit better. They need guys like Suarez. Suarez has got to pitch better for them, that bullpen’s going to have to be solid for them, and Aaron Nola needs to be a little bit more consistent in my view for the Phillies. They’re going to continue on, but for the purposes of the show, in this game I’m locking in the NRFI at the bad price, -125. I actually like it, I think it’s going to win. It’s only a bad price if it loses. If it wins, it’s a great price. Everything’s happy. A win is a win. It says it right behind me somewhere, but a win is a win. Locking in that no runs for inning, Phillies and National’s.

Next game on the docket 961, 962, you’ve got Glasnow and the Rays, Whitlock… Is that right? Yeah, Whitlock, did I get that right? The Red Sox. -140 to the Rays, +125 to the Red Sox, total of nine. A little bit of juice to the over nine at -125. Basewinner, let’s start with you here. We’ve got a weather situation here as well so we’re not sure if we’re going to get a full game in here. This is the one game that looks like it has the most risk today on the East Coast, I know another few games are going to get some scattered showers. Again, that’s my deputy weather man talking. I am not a full-fledged meteorologist. By my numbers, Corbie’s boy, his favorite player, Tyler Glasnow, again, small sample size here, but I don’t have him profiling all that well against the Red Sox today. What do you got in this one?

Basewinner:

It’s a tough game for me. You look at Glasnow and then there’s some limited data on him. What he’s done so far looks good. I mean, he’s pitched four innings and I think his Stuff+ number was like, I don’t know, it was in the top 10%, in the 90th percent percentile rather, so that looks good. Whitlock for me is better than average in the model, but this is where you’ve got to really kind of understand your model because in his starts this season he’s been terrible. He’s lost two and a half miles off his fastball, and so a lot of the data that goes into the models, you want to use kind of a larger sample and so it helps his rating out. I think that it’s worse than it is in the model, so I’m not going to play it. One of the other things, the barrel rate for Whitlock is 12%, at 16th percentile, lower quartile. If I had to play it, I would play Tampa but I don’t know. I don’t have to play it, that’s the best news

Kyle Purviance:

Corbie, when I look at it, I think that juice to the over makes sense. It’s the highest combined weighted OPS I have on the card now. Now listen, I preface this by the sample size for Glasnow is a little bit tougher because of his absence. I know he’s your boy, so talk us into it here. Talk us in to Tyler Glasnow.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, the issue here is I’m not confident Tyler Glasnow will play enough to factor him into this game. If he was, let’s just say there was no weather, I would have a lot of money on this Tyler Glasnow strikeout prop over 6.5, +135, as simple as they come. The issue is a lot of these pitching outs are seeing him at 15.5 pitching outs, which means I don’t know if this weather’s going to take him out of the game. It wouldn’t surprise me if it does. Tyler Glasnow, we’ve talked about my pitching ratings, if you want to see the exact person that I need on a mound, Tyler Glasnow is it. Six-eight, extension is the very highest peak you can have, every single ball comes out of the same arm slot. This guy, 98 up top, will drop a curve ball at what, 78 down low.

So I don’t have to go into detail why I like Tyler Glasnow so much. The biggest thing for me here is that Boston, if this weather’s bad, I don’t think that Boston can score five runs. I mean, the Rays bullpen’s plenty fine. If you can bet Rays, I bet Rays last night, that was for the show, but it moved for like 20 cents and I think that’s due to the fact that this Boston bullpen is pretty tired. Chris Sale got hurt yesterday, they had to play too long. So if this is a weather game, then by all means, Boston is in trouble, and if it’s not they’re in trouble because Tyler Glasnow has dirty stuff.

But here’s the biggest thing in the comparison that I want to make, and I think that people can use this as a reference going into the years, Tyler Glasnow is a better version of another pitcher on the Rays team, Taj Bradley. I talked about this on Twitter. They throw nearly identical stuff. Taj Bradley’s the rookie, his stuff looks a little worse. I would give Glasnow the heads-up, but Taj Bradley versus Boston earlier this year, 78 pitches and eight strikeouts. So this is a Boston team that really struggles with that perception that these pitchers use and I think that Tyler Glasnow is the guy who is elite, one of one at doing that. So by all means, give me the Red Sox team total under four, Rays moneyline, Tyler Glasnow strikeout props, however you want to play it, but for the sake of the show, we’re going the Red Sox team total under four at -120.

Kyle Purviance:

What I got from that is that you love Tyler Glasnow’s dirty stuff and his extension, but that’s all I heard. I don’t know, there’s something-

Corbie Craig:

[inaudible 00:21:34].

Kyle Purviance:

That’s what I heard. Darryl Turner says he already bet Stanley Cup game one and will not be telling me how he bets. I don’t even know who’s in the Stanley Cup finals, I honest to God could not tell you one of the teams in the Stanley… If watching Sports Center, which I don’t do as often anymore, and hockey highlights come on, that’s my cue to go eat a cookie, smoke a cigarette. I have never cared about hockey. Sometimes I’ve been in some Boston themed bars and you watch playoff hockey when the Bruins are playing, it gets a little rowdy, that’s fun. People are throwing chairs and getting off. That’s a little bit fun, but I can’t get into the hockey thing man. It’s like watching paint dry out there, same with soccer. Okay, zero, zero, here we go.

So nonetheless, for the purposes of this show, locking in Boston team total under four runs for Corbie sitting at -120. I’m rooting for the weather here. I think the weather situation here is the best thing you’ve got going for you. Is there an innings limit? If they play five innings and call this a game, does that still hold up? Do you know, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

I think it would be a completed game after five. I don’t want to be wrong, I have no clue. But let me say one more thing, I don’t think the bullpen is the best thing. I think Tyler Glasnow is the best pitcher in baseball and I think people, if you want to buy a good price, now is the time. As you said, his weight at OPS, high. He got hit by the Dodgers, but he also had nine strikeouts his first game back. Tyler Glasnow is the guy, I think we’ve talked about this on the show, but I have a friend debate of you get two pitchers for their career, the first one to hit a no-hitter wins. We all have $100 on each pitcher and Tyler Glasnow is my first overall pick with the number one pick of the whole thing. So by all means, people keep sleeping on this guy and I will keep be betting it. After a year and a half out, he was a favorite versus the Dodgers last match-up, so there’s a reason that’s what he’s doing.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s interesting. I’m rooting for Tyler Glasnow, I’m rooting for him. Kevin Hillmers is right, in fact my dog went out this morning and I could tell, he was taking a crap out in the front yard, that made as many threes as Max Strus last night. That the crap my dog took was a better fantasy basketball option than Max Strus last night, so congratulations to the crap my dog took this morning on being better than Max Strus. Mel says they live in Colorado and they love to watch a lot of hockey. Hey, I remember Patrick Roy, right? Patrick Roy, Patrick Roy, didn’t he play hockey in Colorado a while ago? I don’t know, that’s about it. That Dominik Hosek, hockey. Wayne Gretzky. I got them all down. I know all the greats in hockey.

Let’s get to the last game on the docket and get to the Q and A. 965, 966, Ohtani Day for the Angels. Framber Valdez got pushed back yesterday, which nullified our Astros bet, of course. -126 to the Astros, +116 to the Angels, total sitting here at seven and a half. It’s a pickem either way at -110. Corbie, let’s start here. Now look, I like Valdez, the Astros lineup profiles a little bit better than I have the Angels profiling against Valdez. When I see a pitcher like Ohtani, you don’t get plus money on Ohtani very often. It’s just one of those things we talked about with the Dodgers last week when they were like +170, it was just a number you just don’t see when Bobby Miller was making his debut against Strider. I don’t know here, I think Angels certainly a live dog with Ohtani on the mound. What do you think here, Astros Angels?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, the Angels offense always worries me. We’ve talked about this a few times, but the Astros are coming to form, the Angels are kind of falling out of form, which I understand, but I agree. Ohtani’s stuff plays to a world of its own, so getting plus money with Ohtani on the mount always feels pretty good. I’m on this secondary site looking for props and I think it’s funny, when you click every other player’s name like Altuve, it’s all these batter props. Then you click Ohtani and it’s just like two sheets full of props, because he does literally everything. I don’t know. He’s at 7.5 strikeouts at +100, basically. So you’re talking about their best hitter, also projected to throw eight strikeouts, which is just absolutely nuts. I could go on Ohtani tangents all day, but I got one for you. Did y’all see that 480 foot home run he hit off Lance Lynn?

Kyle Purviance:

Unbelievable. I just love it when Lance Lynn fails. I hate Lance Lynn in terms of baseball, by the way. I’m sure he’s a fantastic-

Basewinner:

I watched that home run and because… So check this out, this is a true story and I’m not bragging, it is what it is and I’m actually proud of this for my cousin. My cousin, his name is Joe Borchard, in 2004 he still has the longest home run in the history of, I guess it’s called Guaranteed Rate Field now, I think it was called The Cell back then. I actually compared both home runs together and Joe hit it to the concourse. Ohtani might have got there, he had some elevation on the home run. He might’ve beaten Joe’s record if he would’ve straightened it out. I always look at long home runs at Guaranteed Rate Field, see if Joe gets beat, but he’s had that for, gosh, almost 20 years.

Kyle Purviance:

Shout out to Joe Borchard. Did he play in the major leagues?

Basewinner:

Well, he’s got the longest home run with the White Sox, yeah. So this is one thing, this was cool. I was fooling around with the MLB film room the other day to pull that up, and what a tool that is. That’s really good. So you guys want to get video, you can sort by inning, batter, pretty much anything you want to. So if you ever get discouraged with MLB and how lousy they are and some of the rules and some of the stuff they do like Automated strike zone, i.e, but that film room is room tremendous guys. It’s really a fun tool to use.

Kyle Purviance:

How about Kevin Hillmers, he remembers your cousin Joe Borchard. That’s cool. He says, “I believe it was 500 feet.” He said, “As a White Sox fan, I remember that one. It was 500 feet, I believe, on the concourse,” he says

Basewinner:

512 off Brett Myers.

Kyle Purviance:

512 off Brett Myers.

Basewinner:

It was a bomb, man. I tell you what, I’m related to him, I have not even close to the power that this guy has. He’s a beast. He was a quarterback at Stanford, got into the Rose Bowl, and would’ve started when he was a senior but he had to take the money. White Sox and Reinsdorf gave him a really good deal. That’s why I kind of have an affinity for the White Sox, because I think that Reinsdorf and company are pretty cool, at least how they treated him.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, if they hook up cousin Borchard, yeah, they’re cool. You root for them, that’s how the universe works, right?

Corbie Craig:

You got to tell him to stop sprinting around the bases though. Man, he’s booking it.

Kyle Purviance:

I love this.

Basewinner:

That was pretty cool. That was a pretty cool day. But anyway, I’m sorry, I had to brag because it brought it up and I was like, it was blast. Ohtani definitely has the power to break that record, that’s for sure.

Kyle Purviance:

Thoughts on this game now, Angels Astros, as we bring you in after, what do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Well, I’m going to play the under in this game. I talked about Valdez a lot yesterday, but I’ve got the game projected at 6.3 runs. You look at some of these numbers for both guys, they’re really good. Ohtani 34.2 strikeout percentage last 150. I think there’s only two guys that are better than him, Strider and deGrom, and so that’s pretty good company to keep. Valdez, good strikeout rate, 86th percentile there. You look at ISO percentage, they’re both in the 90% ISO allowed, 90th percentile. The one thing you say, well the Angels can hit, so can the Astros, that’s definitely priced into the model. I think what’s not priced into the model is, and I want to kind of get Corbie’s take on Ohtani’s repertoire, but I think that Ohtani will keep these guys guessing. I think the Astros, and aside from the trashcan stuff and the camera in center field, I think they’re good guessers.

I did a piece on a YouTube video before the trashcan thing came up and I think the guy’s name, correct me if I’m wrong if you remember Kyle, I think his name was Roberto Osuna, he was a reliever for the Blue Jays. Bregman just [inaudible 00:29:57] pitch. I mean, maybe he had trash can, I don’t know. Because I had the Blue Jays that day, it was like +230 and this guy’s a good closer. I’m like, hey, this bet’s going to cash. Bregman just guesses the pitch and he was just all over a high fastball inside. There’s no way he could hit that unless he knew it was coming or he was guessing it. I think that even with the trashcan stuff, I think these guys are good guessers. I think Ohtani and Darvish would keep them guessing, those are the pitchers that I’m thinking of, but I would like to know Corbie’s thoughts on Ohtani’s variety. It seems like to me sometimes he just toys with batters. His walk rate’s high, but he’s like, I’ll just walk this guy and pitch to the next guy.

Kyle Purviance:

Which gets him in trouble.

Corbie Craig:

At times it does, but the issue is he has some pitches that he’s kind of just not high control of this year. He still has the stuff that he knows he could do and then it becomes easy to guess. But I would agree, I think that he finds more joy in the art of baseball, that’s why he throws six pitches at this point. He threw one slider this year, which I don’t know, maybe they graded it as a slider and it wasn’t, I don’t know. I just think that that’s funny to look at Baseball Savant, one slider. But yeah, I would tend to agree, the biggest thing is I don’t think that the Astros are good at guess… I mean, they might be, but it would be so hard to justify that. The biggest thing is I think that they’re really good at fouling off pitches until they get the pitch that they want.

So even if they’re guessing fastball and they’re wrong, they’re really good at fouling them off until they get a fastball. That’s easier with every other pitcher in the league because every other pitcher in the league throws sequences that really aren’t spread out in mile per hour. So easiest way to fall off the pitch is if you throw 89, then 88, then 87. But Ohtani’s going 97 to 88 to 83 to 75. Your bat will be long past the baseball at that point. I think that he has the stuff to not get foul-offs as much and it probably gives a deception as to why it seems like he’s leaving people guessing, but it’s more that they’re just trying to foul off until the right pitch and they can’t.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, he is really impressive. He’s very, very impressive. Good pitching matchup. Good game, Angels at Astros tonight heading into the weekend. Basewinner’s locking in the under 7.5 at -110. Just to piggyback on that, I have this as the lowest combined weighted OPS on the card today, so I think that under absolutely makes some sense. That’s the last game, so it’s time to get into the Q and A. Now, you all know what that means every Friday… Well not every Friday, we had a week off, but most Fridays we have the Basewinner Rap.

Basewinner:

I think you guys it’s going to be every other Friday.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I like that. I like that, every other, keep them waiting, keep them guessing. This one turned out great. Of course, Corbie really dropped the ball today. Let’s just call it what it is. He absolutely dropped the ball today, so I will be picking up his slack again. Corbie is going to be recording. He’s already sitting back it. If you guys want to do something fun, while this is happening, just watch his face, because the cringiness of his face is my favorite part.

Basewinner:

Corbie was four notes, what a team player like, oh okay, I’ve I’ve got to use the piano on the show tomorrow. Okay, my roommate’s going to party all night, I better go get that piano because-

Corbie Craig:

To my defense, I wasn’t given a, “Hey, Corbie, we’re actually going to use the piano.” It was just on the show, it was like, “Yo, that’s a good idea.” Then I was like, “All right, where’s your piano at?” You got to give me 48 hours notice.

Basewinner:

All right, admittedly I didn’t take charge of this rap as much as I could have, because I could have texted you or did the Twitter instant message and I didn’t. I’ll let you off the hook. I think that we’ve come up with a good one today, guys. I think Kyle’s going to help me out on this and it’s going to be fun, fun, fun.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep, excited for it, the Basewinner Rap. So yeah, hit that like button, we appreciate that. You better hit the damn like button and make sure you guys give Corbie tons of pressure on Twitter, just anywhere you can, where you can access and he’s going to see it. Make sure you get on Corbie, get on him, and one of these days we’re going to get him on the Basewinner Rap. So are we ready, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Usher, Yeah, is going to be the song. All right, let’s go.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, we’re ready?

Basewinner:

Peace up, MLB show down.

Kyle Purviance:

Let’s go.

Basewinner:

On the show with my homies, you know the card is MLB, stats are the key. We know the right ones to deal.

Kyle Purviance:

Hey.

Basewinner:

I saw Corbie, he was checking out Statcast. He made the pitching metric so clear, like he’s a scout for the team, I decided to agree.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay.

Basewinner:

[inaudible 00:34:47] got heavy, so Kyle said, “Basewinner, you need to go.”

Kyle Purviance:

What? Watch out.

Basewinner:

Oh, he was saying, “Please save me,” so I parsed the K-Rate line and the ISO. I said, “Baby, let’s go.” That’s when I told you, I said, yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, yeah.

Basewinner:

Corbie’s hair, Kyle’s jokes, you know the show is on. Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

We crunch the numbers and we sing the songs. Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

Where has the best chance to hit a dong? Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

Next thing I knew, we cashing tickets, saying yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

Take that and rewind it back. If you’ve got a question, you can put it in the chat. Take that and rewind it back, Friday mornings are made for the Basewinner Rap. Take that and rewind it back, if Fezick don’t like it, we can put him on blast.

Kyle Purviance:

Boom, there it is. I love the Basewinner Rap. Good job this week, excellent job. Corbie’s face, I’m telling you guys, it is priceless the look of Corbie’s face while it’s happening. Next week we’ve got to get him in here. Great job this week, Basewinner.

Corbie Craig:

I’m going to have some popcorn ready for nice week.

Kyle Purviance:

That was absolutely fantastic, I loved that. Let’s get to some of your guys’ questions.

Basewinner:

Hold on a second, I just want to make one comment about it because they do the, “Doo doo, doo doo, doo doo, doo doo,” at Chase Field. So every time you guys hear that at the park, I want you to think of The MLB Show, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s unbelievable.

Corbie Craig:

It says, “Tupac approved.”

Kyle Purviance:

Tupac approves. You’ve got Fezick in there who got to hear himself. I mean, see, I’m fortunate enough because I participate as a team player, Corbie. So I get to see the lyrics before we do it, so I can practice my part, right? I’m always just like, that’s beautiful. It’s beautiful. Now I find myself, when I’m listening to songs, I turn it into baseball songs. You know what I mean? It happens all the time, all the time.

Basewinner:

Next one’s going to be fun too, because I’m already kind of working through that one. That one’s going to be good too. I hope you guys enjoy it. I enjoy doing it and I enjoy when Kyle does Lil Jon, he’s pretty good.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, let’s go. Okay, I don’t know, I have fun with it. “I need to see Corbie dancing,” says Mel. Corbie’s saying, “Yo, chill,” but I could see him as a backup dancer. You’re the best looking guy on the show, you should maybe at least dance for us. Do something.

Corbie Craig:

I’m not. What do they say? I hit the two-step in the club. I’m in the back, I’m that guy. Not a dancer. You look like the dancer, Kyle, to be honest.

Kyle Purviance:

I can shake.

Corbie Craig:

I can see you getting funky on the floor, yeah, for sure.

Kyle Purviance:

I get funky on the floor. It depends. I like to have a little bit of help when I’m doing that. I think I should leave it there, but I need a little bit of help to get my mind right. It’s pretty funny, but anyways, I digress. Let’s get into some of your guys’ questions and get you into the weekend. Great Basewinner Rap. By the way, we’ve gone four days without a plane flyover, it’s really weird. They’ve been doing it at night, last night at like 11:30 at night they’re doing flying practice. You’re just like, you’ve got to be kidding me, but I’ll take it. I’ll take 11:30 at night over 9:30 in the morning any day of the week. Ed Blust, I appreciate it, “I guarantee Kyle can dance.” See all the credit I’m getting in here? I mean, you guys know I’m an uncoordinated white dude, right? I’m probably not that good. I think I can, but it’s probably horrible. It’s probably absolutely terrible. If I saw myself doing it, I’d probably be mortified.

But nonetheless, our first question from Demonte Jarman, our guy, “What do you guys think about the triple A’s winning first five a little bit and what do you guys think about Seattle in Texas game?” That Rangers-Seattle game was tough for me. You’ve got Gray and Castillo. Right now with deGrom hurt, it’s the two best arms on both teams. That one was really tough. I think it’s 50/50, maybe a slight lean to the under, but are we back in the Triple A? Did the Triple As even… They do play today. Oh yeah, it’s Shintaro Fujinami on the mound. So they’re opening with one of the worst arms out of their bullpen. The guy’s got an ERA of like 12 or 13, it’s something ridiculous, going up against the Marlins here in Cabrera. I mean, I’d still lean the Marlins here. I don’t think you could back the A’s. So we’ve talked about the A’s having a historically bad bullpen this year and now they want to run a bullpen game today. What do you think, Basewinner? What are we doing here with this A’s Marlins game?

Basewinner:

Well, yeah, the Fujinami experiment hasn’t worked out so far. I don’t know why they would go get a guy there, they must be seeing something in this guy, so maybe there’s more to it than what he’s shown so far. What do we have, 30 innings of MLB work? So maybe there’s still some upside for him. We sure haven’t seen it before. I’ve got Hogan Harris, not Hogan’s Heroes, Hogan Harris, the bulk guy. Okay, I had to do the Hogan’s Heroes.

Kyle Purviance:

Corbie has no idea what Hogan’s Heroes is, right? They even made a little video game out of it, a Nintendo game, Hogan’s Heroes. It was fantastic.

Basewinner:

I didn’t know that. Well, that’s pretty good knowledge there. My projections for Hogan Harris are pretty good. I’ve got him 10% better than average, so they’re bullish. But having said that, they’re just projections. But you would think how lousy these FanGraphs, and not just FanGraphs, it’s not FanGraphs’ projections because there’s like five sets of projections on FanGraphs and they’ve all been awful, missing the mark on these Oakland A’s, so maybe these projections will actually be worth something. I mean, I think if you have to play a Oakland Miami game, then maybe you guys should go get out and dance with Kyle. But if I had to play it, I would play Oakland +1.5. I almost did and then I’m like, no, why?

Kyle Purviance:

I would say the A’s are bad, so shut up and bet Miami. Shut up and dance with me. See how I made it rhyme there? Did I get it there? A little bit [inaudible 00:41:01].

Basewinner:

I kind of got it a little bit, but no.

Kyle Purviance:

Don’t you dare do that, something. I don’t know, I’ve got to think about it in my head a little bit, but I usually can come up with it pretty quick. Corbie, what do you think here? Are you back in the Triple A’s or the Marlins in this one?

Corbie Craig:

I hope the Triple A’s keep winning a lot of games so this number keeps falling. I actually did not know Fujinami was the after an opener, I just thought Hogan Harris was getting a shot. Hogan Harris’s stuff in AAA doesn’t look miserable. I’m trying to pull it up now. I think he went-

Kyle Purviance:

Now I just think you’re saying Hogan’s Heroes, I just hear it the whole time.

Basewinner:

No, it’s like, you couldn’t make that stuff up.

Kyle Purviance:

Sorry, Corbie, go ahead. Sorry, sorry.

Corbie Craig:

Let’s see. I think that he went like… Yeah, he has 31 innings pitched, 31 strikeouts. AAA is a 3.7 ERA. I think his last two games he’s cleaned up even more, like five innings pitched of one hit in each. I don’t have them in front of me, I’m just looking at his overall, but I think that his stuff looked decent enough for me to stay away. Cabrera also obviously always a strikeout warrior, but you never know about batted balls and walks. This Fujinami, he throws 97 pretty well, and I mean he can drop down into the lower quartile of speed, the issue with him has been walks as well. I would be curious to see. He hasn’t really played a ton of innings pitch, he’s been going one, two innings. So maybe this is an overall bullpen game. I need to look more into this game overall, but kind of a weird spot overall for Oakland. Listen, if Oakland can win this series, then I think we’ll have a chance to bet against them again soon. But as of now, you’re getting pretty high prices on this Oakland team.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I just don’t know if I… Again, it’s really tough when you have a guy who’s been so bad in the bullpen because, you’re right, his sample size is so small. So it becomes a little tough and you think, oh, is there a lineup where this guy can get through it? It’s probably the Marlins, but again, you get a little bit nervous. They just got rid of Jesus, and of course we know Miami has Jesus on their roster, so there’s a lot of factors here where I think I’m leaning the Marlins.

Our next question from our guy Mark, “Have to talk about Yankees versus Dodgers, please.” -132 to the Dodgers, +122 to the Yankees, total of eight. Tiny bit of juice to the under at -115. Thank you to Julian back there for making me look smart, like I just know all that off of the top of my head. We got Kershaw and Severino, good pitching matchup. Severino has looked good in his limited innings this year coming back. I kind of worry about the non-velocity of Kershaw here, Corbie. The Yankees power might be able to take advantage here if he’s not on. When you’re at Kershaw’s age and your velocity is what it is, you need to locate and beyond every single day or you’re going to give up a ton of runs. I think I lean the Yankees. I like the Yankees as live dogs here at +122 behind Severino. What do you think?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, plus money, it seems interesting. One second. The Yankees are 28th in the league in hitting curveballs, that’s the only issue here. Kershaw’s stuff should play well against the Yankees. That’s the only worry. I do agree, getting Yankees at a really good price. I am leaning off this game-

Kyle Purviance:

Some guys coming back, right? Donaldson and Stanton, they’re going to be back. Is it too early to start betting the Yankees? You kind of want those guys to see if they’re going to have some rust, if they’re going to be able to hit the ball. It’s a tough one.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, and it looks like… Sorry, I’m just scrolling through this all at the same time, but it looks like Kershaw’s throwing a slider more often than not. Yankees 16th in the league in slider, so not awful. But yeah, I think that the Dodgers have a pitching advantage for sure. The Yankees cleaning up some. What is this total at 7.5, 8?

Kyle Purviance:

Eight.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, probably lean towards an under, but no love it by any means. Both of these offenses can score three runs in an inning pretty easy.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it’s pretty tough. What do you think here, Basewinner, Yankees-Dodgers? This one’s a tough one for me.

Basewinner:

Well, I think that the bookmakers are saying something with the first five total to the Yankees. They threw up a 1.5 On them and it’s not even juiced up that much, it’s -120. I think before you take the bait, you’ve got to understand that that Kershaw is right about 30%, 29.8% this year, last 150 plate appearance 30.7% strikeout rate. I mean, that’s pretty darn good, 93rd percentile. You look at ISOP allowed, 88 percentile over a pretty good sample, 500 plate appearances. Stuff+, I mean this is more recent numbers Stuff+ is in the 86 percentile. So I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Clayton Kershaw.

Severino’s a tough one for me to cap, I just don’t think there’s enough data. He’s got some Stuff+ stuff and his Stuff+ is 84 percentile, Pitching+, good location too, location+ 98 percentile. I don’t know, maybe you go… What is the first five under here? Let’s see. Well, this is an interesting number. They put it at over 1.5, -120 on the Yankees team total, but you’re under is 4.5 for the first five -130. I think that that’s how I would do it, if you want to play Yankees, Dodgers. I would say, hey, maybe find something better to do than bet the A’s, Marlins game. But Yankees, Dodgers, I think maybe you have to bet this one, I mean, as a follower of our show. I will say my advice would be under 4.5, -130 for the first five.

Kyle Purviance:

I love that. I like that quite a bit. Usually when you get two really good pictures, both these pictures profile excellent and Severino certainly has the stuff to be awesome, usually you get the 3.5 there. That smells like usually it’s a 3.5 spot, so maybe you’re getting a boost here to the offense. Again, Yankee’s getting some power back, but it’s their first game back. How often do we see guys come back from an extended time on the injured list and just come out and start piping home runs it? It feels like it takes them a little bit of time to get going, it’s Major League pitching. I think that under 4.5 in the five, I think that’s an excellent bet. I like that one quite a bit.

Let’s get to our next question from Mel, he or she, again, not sure… I like the mystery about it by the way, it really keeps me on my toes and keeps me behaved, which I like. It’s good. It’s good to reign me in some, keep me behaving here. “Thoughts on the Ranger’s moneyline? I know Kyle probably isn’t in a mood to answer my questions today, but I figured I’d try.” First of all, because I had lot of fun even though I lost yesterday, I had a lot of fun watching the game, so I feel like I won in the long run and now we’re friends. You know what I mean? I made a new friend, so that’s always good.

Look, it’s Gray versus Castillo, very low .581 weighted OPS here for Castillo against this Rangers lineup, which has been best run differential in all of baseball. The Rangers have really made me look smart through about 55 games, which I appreciate. Thank you, Rangers. Gray profiles just as well, .604 weighted OPS. This one’s really, really tough for me. It’s nearly a pickem, 107, 103. I just had to stay away, but this is another one where I might be looking at it under in the first five. What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

I’ll tell you what’s surprising to me is that the Seattle bullpen, I usually update them on Thursday and they’ve taken a jump and for the good. I have them at 11th in baseball right now. I’ve got this game priced -127 to Seattle. A couple really good numbers for Castillo, 30% strikeout rate last 150, 91st percentile. ISO Power’s good, 80th percentile there. What is not so good is this barrel rate allowed is 10.5%, so that’s approaching lower quartile. I think if I played it, and I may play it, I didn’t put it out on the card this morning, but I would play Seattle. I’ve got a price -127, you can get them at -112.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it’s awfully tough. Mel’s right, Castillo hasn’t looked himself this season, but his last two starts he looks like he’s getting a lot more closer to being himself. Both these guys, Corbie, sub 3 ERAs. I like the Rangers lineup a little bit better than the Mariners. Of course, the Mariners tend to kind of disappear offensively at times. What do you think here, Mariners Rangers? I think it’s real tough.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I worry about the offense for the Mariners as well. I think Castillo’s definitely the better pitcher. This is a coin flip. I think the weighted coin flip probably goes towards the Mariners more often than not. You’re getting a little bit of that price. I think if this was right at even money, I would be on the Mariners. I had this 118, so it seems like that is where some books are heading towards, [inaudible 00:49:32] 118 right now. You can find a few decent prices around the shop, but I think even money would be right where I’m at here. I think the Mariners offense can find some stuff every once in a while, but that’s really my only issue here.

Kyle Purviance:

Mel does make a good point, Castillo has looked dominant against bad teams and has looked really bad… Not really bad, I should say, but not great against some of the better teams. For example, his last two starts against Oakland and Pittsburgh, 18 strikeouts in those two games combined, looked really good, gave up a combined five hits, no earned in runs. But teams like Boston with pop, Texas, Houston, in five innings he gave up at least three earned runs in all those, four, three, and five. So probably a little bit worried that he’s not able to be as dominant against some of the… I mean, who’s going to be? Of course playing the A’s is different than playing the Rangers, but it is something to consider when backing the Mariners that Castillo has looked vulnerable against some of the better teams and has looked really good against some of those lesser teams.

So real tough one here. For me, when I have a 50/50 like this, I just like to take the better price. If I get a slight plus money here, a +105 on either side, that’s the side I would go. That’s just how I generally approach it if I have the proverbial gun to my head and it’s 50/50, I’m just going to do that. This next question I think is a really good question. Actually, I mean, I think we’ve all dealt with this. I deal with this absolutely, especially when you do this full-time for five, six years. Ed Blust asks, “Since I’ve been betting sports full-time for two years now, I get up at 4:30 in the morning and work seven days a week. How do you guys avoid burnout? Do you take breaks from betting? Advice appreciated.” I think this is a great question. Corbie, let’s start with you here. Do you take breaks? Do you get burned out? I mean, I think we’re all human, it’s got to happen, right?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, there’s a lot of ways you could go with this question. First, do I get burnout? I mean, yes, obviously you get burnt out of basically anything in life. You could have too much chocolate cake, it’s not possible just to eat it forever. Except for lemonade. Listen, I could drink lemonade, I have one.

Kyle Purviance:

Gummy bears for me, I could eat gummy bears unlimited, nonstop.

Corbie Craig:

Well, for most things, there are burnouts to everything. I think that the main thing is to find secondary avenues that you enjoy just as much, that take your brain power. I see too many people who watch sports, talk sports, eat sports, sleep sports, and you’ll get burn out. But if you can find a secondary market or something you enjoy, real estate is something that I really enjoy, business itself, I love building businesses, so whenever I stop this, I’ll have a four-hour stretch today that I just make calls and do business stuff. So that makes the ability to just come back in and do sports not as tiresome.

Also though, I think burnout also comes from the idea of needing to make money to continue doing this. I think if you can find another source of income from the other ventures that you have, if it’s business or if it’s whatever you do, real estate, you could be a landlord, not having as much stress on the ability to have to do it every day as your full-time life makes burnout significantly easier because then, at the end of the day, it’s not something you have to do. It’s something that you’re doing for fun. It’s hard and you love it and that’s why you do it.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, those are all great points. Basewinner, I’m interested to hear your thoughts on this, how you deal with the burnout factor. Because look, I know for me, especially when you do this… I feel more pressure to be right for the people watching. It’s not even necessarily in my own personal bankroll, but after a while it gets to the point where you don’t want to look dumb on camera. That was the whole point, and that part I think-

Basewinner:

Yeah. Well, and if you have a decent person, and I think that underneath the exterior you’re very warmhearted and you care about the people who watch the show, and that’s why people return to the show, because they see that you’re kind of on the exterior. You’ve got some rough edges, that’s for sure. I think that you make a really good point, is if you care about doing this for others, that makes it all the more challenging. Getting back to Ed’s question, and Corbie made some good points, he talked about balance, not just in business, but I think for your life too, I think it’s really important. I mean, I don’t want to be a fitness coach here, but I think it’s important that you get exercise every day and get some sun, I mean, simple things, drink enough water, get exercise, get sun. I mean, sometimes you can break it down into its simplest form.

For me, burnout is easier for me, Kyle, because I don’t do the other sports and that’s one of the reasons. I feel like I’m kind of in my wheelhouse with baseball, and so that helps. But I definitely think, and I’m going to do this this season, I’m just going to take four days off when I go on vacation. In the past I’ve sent out the card and done plays, but I’m not going to do that this year. I’m just going to take four days off and just kind of reset.

Then the other thing is too, I’m glad it’s being brought up because there’s one thing that’s I think the hardest thing for me, I love doing this, I can do this eight to 10 hours a day and I would be pumped up about doing it, but I think what sometimes is frustrating, and I talk about, “Well, I’m going to build a model for this. I’m going to build a model for this,” is it takes time to build these models. It takes time, even if you know how to program with Python and do the coding and stuff, it takes time to go ahead and do it and get it done right. But in the meantime, you could spend eight hours breaking down this car today and still leave some stones unturned. So you’ve got to balance that, what you’re doing on a daily basis, to what your longer term stuff is. So that’s hard for me, but I think that if you find yourself getting burned out, maybe just take a day off and just take a reset day, that might be the best advice.

Kyle Purviance:

You know what I do, and I know Corbie has more to add onto this, it happens to me because I do all the sports. There’s been years where it’s like, wow, I worked even when I went on vacation. I worked two years straight every single day, whether it be for 10 minutes or two hours, and you can get burned out. Sports used to be my hobby. I love sports. Since I was a little kid, I’ve been reading sports cards and the transactions page in the local newspaper, you look to see you had a home run the day before. It’s been my life since I was seven years old. Had to find a new hobby, so I started doing Gordon Ramsey recipes out of the cookbook.

But one thing, he asked, “Do you take a break from betting?” and I absolutely do. Some weekends I’m just saying, you know what? This whole weekend I’m just not going to bet anything. Maybe I’ll throw one tweet out, like a parlay. But if I want to take a break from betting but I still have this, okay, I need to have just a little bit of action for the excitement, I’ll just do something silly for an amount that I don’t care if I lose it all. I’ll take a Jason $4 parlay for $100,000, just something to have a little bit of fun where there’s no pressure. If I lose, I lose. If I win, I win. It’s one thing I do.

The other thing I do is I like to keep some sports to myself. UFC I used to keep to myself. I follow it very closely, I enjoy it, but I wouldn’t tell anyone about it. I would just do it for me. So I was just having fun with myself or maybe a few people around, my little brother or my girlfriend, something where I didn’t put the pressure on myself out everywhere else and just do something a little bit different to take some of that pressure off, because I think that’s where the burnout is.

You’re right, if you’re doing this where you have to make the money, that’s too much pressure. You shouldn’t be doing that at all. That’s just never a way to do it. Do something to relieve that pressure and make it fun, I think like Basewinner said, if it’s fun, you won’t feel that burnout. When I’m feeling burnout, take a day off or do some silly kind of bet like, hey, I’m going to bet the Kool-Aid water in the Superbowl, or something fun that’s different from your norm to kind of take some of the pressure off. What do you got, Corbie, on this?

Corbie Craig:

Two things. I have a Kool-Aid story, but that’s a whole different… I think I’ve told you about this, I had the Kool-Aid color a few years back, or Gatorade color at the Super Bowl, it is why my car is the color that it is.

Kyle Purviance:

I love that.

Corbie Craig:

So one thing I will say, and I could get into philosophy, this is one of the weird things that I enjoy way too much, but there’s a guy, Alex Hormozi on YouTube, check him out. If you’re a business person, if you’re doing this full time, an amazing guy to listen to for advice and philosophy. Don’t shout out many people ever, but I literally have his book right here. It’s the only book in my entire office. So by all means, think he’s great. He had a quote yesterday, and the only reason I bring it up is he said, “It’s a narrative think.” I’m 26, so obviously I have not been through enough to say these things, but it makes sense in my head and he says it, so in theory I love the idea.

But it’s like, people have this narrative of burnout and vacation and all of these things, and yet he was like, “I don’t go on vacation, I don’t have hobbies, I don’t go to the bars, I don’t do anything because I love what I do.” He’s like, “You don’t have to go on vacation if you enjoy where you’re at currently.” So it’s like, this is going to be hard, this is going to be treacherous, comma, and that’s okay because this is what I want to do, it’s what I want to build.

So if you want to bet sports full-time, it will be hard for sure. It will be treacherous. There will be days that suck and that’s okay because that is part of this. If it wasn’t hard, if it wasn’t treacherous, there would be a bigger issue because that means that every person would be doing it. Don’t imagine it as this pitfall and this weight on your shoulder, more the less, this is part of the journey that you knew you were getting into. So the bad days, just know 3% of the days that you do this are going to be bad. So then when you have a bad day, just be like, man, this is one of those three. Mark it out, this is my one bad day a month, and then now you can no longer feel bad [inaudible 00:59:16]-

Basewinner:

It’s got to be more than that, Corbie. That’s a-

Corbie Craig:

I’m saying like down in the dumps.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, my month of May it was about like 21 of them, I think.

Basewinner:

I mean, it depends on the month, but you’re going to have the down days, and I mean, that’s just emotional, how do you deal with your emotions after you do a… What is it? 0 and 6 is a titanium sombrero, [inaudible 00:59:39]-

Corbie Craig:

I don’t mean bad in a sense of money or of your physical skill. I mean bad as in the day that you don’t want to wake up because you’re upset about it or the day that you feel like the whole world is against you, those days happen probably 3% a year, or let’s say 12%. One day a month there’s a time when you’re like, man, this shit sucks. If you think of it as that, then by all means. But if you think of it as like, hey, this is part of the process, I have to have one of these days a month, it makes that day a lot easier to think about because you know that it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be treacherous, and that’s why nobody else is doing it. Then it becomes a lot easier to mentally justify it.

I’ve had conversations with guys that do the same thing in the same space as me and burnout and leave. I’ve been here for five, six years at this point, and I know a lot of really smart people who have got up and left because they just can’t deal with those hard days of betting on sports. It is an occupation based off gambling, it is very tough, but if you can know that those are going to come, it makes those days much easier.

Kyle Purviance:

I always try to find joy in little simple things, little dumb things that make me laugh. When I walk in the door and my cat looks at me like it’s telling me, I just make up like, “Oh, Kitty’s telling me he loves me.” Everyone goes, “No, it’s not, you’re a crazy person. You’re talking to your cat.” I said, “I don’t know, it makes me happy.” I find little ways to reduce my pressure and keep my hairline and keep my hair from turning gray.

Basewinner:

I think that one thing, and this is the last thing I’ll say on this because I know we’re running long, understand that you can’t handicap every angle for every game in every sport, so find something that you enjoy doing. This comes back to what Corbie says. Find something that you enjoy doing, find a stat, find a sport that you really, really love, and then dive into that and understand that you can’t… that’s why I don’t do the other sports. I mean, I can tell you one team in the NHL finals, but I can’t tell you the other one. If I want to dive into that sport, I’m going to pump BetUS up because they’ve got some really good analysts. I mean, the German soccer league guy, he calls games for serious radio. Kevin Hatchard, Stinchcombe and O’Hare, and the analysts on the Premier League show, those guys are awesome. If I feel like, hey, I want to bet this Premier League game, I’m not going to cap it. I’m going to go watch that show and okay, O’Hare likes this, Stinchcombe likes this, and maybe even Flash, Flash has some runs of brilliance too.

Kyle Purviance:

Premier League, my most famous friend, Gordon Flash Watson, my most famous friends.

Basewinner:

I mean, there’s good resources outside of what you can do too, and kind of understand that and try to find those.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, and listen guys, I know there was more questions we wanted to get to them, but speaking of legends, we have Dan Rafael and TJ getting ready to cover some boxing here on a Friday. Look, I grew up reading Dan Raphael and ESPN, reading about boxing. He’s absolutely fantastic, so be sure to stay tuned right here at BetUS TV for that. Let’s go over our best MLB bets and get everyone over to the boxing show and out for the weekend. I am on the no runs first inning in that Phillies-Nats game at -125. We’ve got under 7.5 at -110 in the Angels-Astros for B-Dub. Of course, Boston’s team total under four against his boy Glasnow today at -120. Again, thank you guys so, so much. We appreciate all the support, all the great questions. We have a lot of fun on here. Hope you have a great weekend. Again, stay tuned for our boxing show, TJ and the legend, Dan Rafael, breaking down this weekend boxing card. From myself, Basewinner, Corbie Craig, don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website, have a great weekend and good luck on all your future wagers.