MLB Picks Today [June 5th] MLB Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds

Kyle Purviance:

For the record, my heart is breaking for you, Corbie. I want you to know that I’m on your side.

Tell us about your morning. How was your weekend, brother?

Corbie Craig:

The weekend was great. The good news is, I didn’t tell the story to ask for sympathy, I was just giving you all some context. Life comes in waves of binary, good or bad and it’s just been the obnoxious part of every morning, go to the sauna, water’s out, so go to the sauna without a bottle of water, the usual. Coming home, you have odds on if you’re going to catch red lights or green lights, they’re pretty frequent. You’re going to catch a few red lights, but 26 straight red lights, that’s pretty impressive, I would say that’s pretty bad odds. Then due to the 26 red lights, you have your perfect schedule. You miss breakfast at Chick-fil-A at 10:30, that’s pretty obnoxious. Missed it by two minutes. Get home there’s a driveway pretty easy to see it’s where you park your car. Car parked right in front of it so now my car’s sitting on the street.

Then we get into bet us Skype and Skype crashes so now I have to use my secondary computer. Listen, I didn’t say looking for sympathy, I was just saying it is one of those Mondays but hopefully a better baseball card.

Kyle Purviance:

Man, I hope you’re okay because that sounds absolutely horrible. I don’t know what could be worse. No water at the sauna, 26 red lights Basewinner. That’s a horrible start to the day. We hope young Corbie’s okay.

Basewinner:

When he missed the breakfast at Chick-fil-A. Oh my heart leads. Oh my gosh.

Kyle Purviance:

I am heartbroken for him. I know how that feels. Sometimes I have a hankering for breakfast like McDonald’s breakfast always sounds good to me at three in the morning when I wake up and then I always find myself forgetting to order by 10:30 like in Big Daddy. I’m always like, I thought you served it till 11:00 and it’s a whole thing. Corbie, my heart breaks for you.

Guys, remind you if you want to follow along with the odds, you want to see the numbers we’re playing, maybe you haven’t yet dove into the BetUs double result, head over to betustv.com/odds to follow along and of course betustv.com/join to be a part of the action.

I think this has been a weird season, especially like this last month. I think baseball has just kind of been weird results and I was kind of looking into this, doing some payroll stuff and I wanted to get your guys’ opinion. Does major league baseball have a payroll problem and are some of these rules changing things?

To preface this, if you look at last season in 2022, it was a record tying four teams won a hundred games or more last year their average payroll was 226 million. While there was also a record with four 100 lost teams and a 97 loss team, all whose payroll averaged just under 87 million. Big discrepancy there.

In fact last year the discrepancy be between the Dodgers and the Orioles was the largest payroll gap between two teams in Major League baseball history. This year the gap got even wider. The gap between the Yankees and excuse me, the Mets and the A’s is larger than it’s ever been, but if you were to start the playoffs today, three of the four highest payroll teams in baseball would be out of the playoffs, while three of the lowest of the four lowest payroll teams would be in the playoffs.

What’s different? Are these rule changes really affecting some of these good teams and some of these star players because it seems like the outcome this year, the outcomes are really, really strange to me. You look at that National league base winner especially, I mean the Cardinals have the worst record in the National League. They’re all sitting at around 25 wins. There’s no real team completely out of it in the National League. I find it a little bit interesting.

Do we have a payroll problem? Are the rules changes causing things? What’s with this year being so much different than last season in your view?

Basewinner:

I just think it comes down to, they’ve only played 60 games, so there’s a lot of variance in that in my opinion.

I think that for the most part the teams that pay the more money, they’re the better teams and it should bear out over a large enough sample assuming these guys know what they’re doing.

We’re going to talk about the Phillies and the Phillies have the third highest 26 man payroll, 215 million just behind the Mets and the Yankees and you say, well this team’s underperforming, do they suck? Did the front office just whiff on it? I have a hard time believing that long term this team’s going to be that bad because you look at their front office and especially their quantitative department, which has a guy, his name is Chris Fonnesbeck or is that what his name is? Chris Fonnesbeck, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

What a name.

Basewinner:

The fawns, yeah, I guess you’d call them the fawns. This guy is a bayesian statistics guy. Just a really deep resume as far as how much talent he’s got from a analytics standpoint. They’ve also got six guys that are assisting him. Six quant assisting this guy who’s probably, I would say one of the best bayesian economists, statistics guys in the world and then they’ve got a software engineering department that’s eight or nine people deep. These guys know what they’re doing with evaluating player talent. I would say yes, they do.

The Phillies underperforming, I don’t think that’s going to continue. I think that we maybe need to not draw as much from a 60 game sample as what’s bearing out because I think that that long term, the teams that have the bigger payrolls win more games, it’s not nothing shocking.

Kyle Purviance:

Let me just say Corbie problems may sound like first world problems, but there is something annoying about everything going wrong in the morning before you do something. It doesn’t matter what it is where you’re just frustrated and physics says, I’m going to defend Corbie here. Physics says single mothers are working two jobs with special needs kids and Corbie has a bad day when a spa goes wrong and he can’t get Chick-fil-A boohoo. Well first of all, none of these things were Corby’s fault. The single mom with a couple of kids, no one told you to go have kids, that’s your fault for making bad choices in life. I don’t know what to tell you, but I’m on Team Corbie today, screw those bad mornings. I hate when that kind of stuff happens just the universe is just a tick off. Just a tick off, so that can be frustrating.

What do you think about this? The payroll discrepancy, the results this year have just been a little bit strange in my view.

Corbie Craig:

Listen, I wasn’t asking you for sympathy, so it’s all good, I don’t really care.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m giving you sympathy, you’ve got all my sympathy.

Corbie Craig:

If I was to sleep in, which would be a worse outcome, I would’ve had none of these things happen, so relative to the effort I put in and is bad luck. I don’t care it was just a story.

That said payroll was first off, short sample size…

Basewinner:

No it wasn’t, I’m going to I’m calling BS on this because he comes into the pre-show. “Oh man, my day’s been awful. I couldn’t even go wrong.” The next thing I thought he was going to say is like, “oh on the alternative top market for this particular game, I got screwed. It should have been -115 and it was -120.” I was just waiting for that to happen but it didn’t.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s fantastic.

Corbie Craig:

The issue with the money basis is first off injuries as we’ve talked about, every person’s getting hurt. I think that there’s something to be said about the talent differential closing the gap. I think that the lesser talented people in the league are catching up to the more talented people, just like the overall talent output is getting closer, but at the end of the year you play enough games I still think that the teams that are paid the most, there’s a reason they pay the most, their bigger market they can get the names that are going to win games and it’s proven year over year.

As you said last year, the teams that paid the most won the most games and I think that we’ll see that at the end. There’s been so many injuries so far and so it’s hard to get a decent baseline of what this number actually is.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s tough and there’s a lot of interesting numbers if you look at the Giants, so the only top 10 market team in terms of market size to win more than one title since 2001. Since 2015, 28 of the 30 MLB teams have made the playoffs and since 2010, all 30 of Major League baseball’s teams have made the playoffs.

It is interesting to look at, I think one thing that you’re seeing is before it was okay, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, these guys are going to spend a ton of money and they’re going to trade away all their prospects while the lower market teams, teams like the Rays, et cetera, the Royals remember good run where they’re developing young talent and that’s how they’re competing. Now you’re seeing the bigger market teams really start to value some of that, developing their young talent, developing their young players and keeping some of their prospects. If you’re able to spend and develop and the other teams are just able to develop, I think in the end you’re going to see what that discrepancy is a problem.

I guess baseball, I’ve been reading a lot about this the last couple of days. They’ve created a committee here of course they just signed that new collective bargaining agreement last fall for five years and again, they’re the only one of the major four sports here in America that does not have a salary cap. It’ll be interesting to see how all that goes.

Let’s go over our records and get into this game and look, like I said, I think the results have been really weird this year. Who expected the Cardinals to have a worse record than the Pirates, the Reds and the Rockies? At this point in the season, absolutely nobody, but it’s the month of June, it’s summertime. We should start seeing more runs, warmer weather, less weather problems. I think it’s going to be a lot of fun. I’m looking forward to the two thirds I suppose of the season somewhere in that range. Corbie could do the exact math he’s the resident genius on the show.

Our first game on the docket, 9 15 9 16, it’s McClanahan day for the raise it’s Brayan Bello for the Red Sox -150 to the raise plus 135 to the Sox total of eight and a half here. Juice to the over at -125.

Corbie, let’s start with you here. You had a few different ways you were going to approach us. You settled on one Wanda Franco iffy for the Rays. Makes me a little bit nervous but certainly a pitching advantage today for the Rays here, I went ahead and backed him. I think I’m getting a better number on the other double result but I did get even money here on the double result. It’s -115 on the run line in the first 5, so it’s pretty close. We talked about that 7%. It’s pretty close. I wish I got a little bit more juice out of it. Could squeeze a little more out of it but I took Rays double result here. I still think that pitching advantage is big enough to get them by but some of the injury concerns worry me for the raise.

What do you got here? Rays, Red Sox.

Corbie Craig:

Kyle, don’t bring up the fact that I wanted 9 and now it’s 8 in a half. Don’t say that. That would be first world problems.

Basewinner:

That’s what I mean. Then he gets depressed, you can hear it in his voice. He’s like, “oh I’m so sad today my life’s going really bad. I got 8 and a half instead of 9.”

Corbie Craig:

I’m pretty happy with how I live. I took the Rays team total under 5 [inaudible 00:12:46]. The Rays the Red Sox been going after it for the last few days. They had a double header on Saturday, yesterday was a day game. They should be traveling today after the game. 57 degrees in the stadium, seven mile per hour winds and I think 5 is the number that’s the top of a range for the Rays. I think this probably pushes a decent amount but I’ll take my shot.

Bello is a guy who basically everybody from watching his results and watching. Like box scores can say Bellos not a good pitcher but all of my stuff says that he is and I will continue to unfortunately back this idea that he does have decent stuff. Is it great? I don’t know but I don’t think that the Rays score six runs very frequently. By all means giving me a team total under 5 – 115 on BetUS, I think that we can get the Rays. I had this at Rays scoring 5.07 trying to give the Rays as much juice as I could and so I just don’t have many options of them getting to 6. I think 4 happens pretty frequently and I’ll take this team total under.

Kyle Purviance:

Excellent pitching conditions today out there in Fenway Park. I got to tell you, we love the chat box in the show. We love you guys who watch this show. I want to remind you first of course we’ll get to all your questions in the Q&A. If there’s a game we don’t go over a play, we don’t get go over, please ask it in that chat box and we’ll do our best to get to as many questions as possible at the end of the show.

Kevin Hilmers, I think nailed it here and I forgot about this and look, I’m Team Corbie today. My heart is breaking for him, but Kevin Hilmers brings up a good point. He says if Corbie would’ve helped with the base winner wrap on Friday, this all could have been avoided, karma. That’s an interesting point by our boy Kevin, what do you think your base winner Red Sox, Rays and I mean our chat box, they just get it right a hundred percent of the time.

Basewinner:

That’s a hundred percent right. Next time he is asked to play 4 notes, 4 notes and gosh, I thought I did a pretty good job with the lyrics. I know Kyle, you did Little John. Oh I got to tell you a little John’s story over the weekend because it was pretty funny actually. I thought we did a pretty good job, but how much better would have that been with 4 notes from Corbie? Just 4, that’s all we needed anyway.

But getting back to this game, first of all I want to say it’s not Bello like he’s the Bello.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah Bao. I refuse.

Basewinner:

Well no because it ruined my jaw. I used to Bello of the ball but it’s Bao.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, I’m in.

Basewinner:

There we go. There we go. As far as Corbie’s play goes, I like it except for the Tampa Bay and Boston bullpen. I’m just not a big fan of either one. They’re kind of lower 5 bullpens, believe it or not. The way I’m doing things with strikeout percentage and ISO power. Both pitchers look good though, McClanahan 28% strikeout rate lasts 150 80 5’th percentile both guys ISO power allowed is good. It’s upper 80 percentile for Bello. See I almost said it, for Bello. McClanahan 82nd percentile.

Bello barrel rates pretty good, 67 percentile. I like weather and the travel situations that he went over, I thought that was pretty good information then but if I play the under first 5, that’s how I do it guys.

Kyle Purviance:

I thought about all those things here. Well I’m just going to back McClanahan. I love this guy I think he’s an elite pitcher in the league, not sold on Brayan Bello I guess I don’t like calling him Bao, I like calling him Bello but Bao is the proper way so we may as well do it here.

I’ve got an 8 34 compared to a 5 72 weighted ops. It’s the largest discrepancy in my view on the card. Bello’s been a little bit better as of late, I still don’t think this guy has major league stuff so I’m taking the Rays double result here, it’s an even money plus 100. Did I get that number right? It’s -115 on the run line in the first five, so if I’m taking double result +100, I know you explained it a little bit in the chat box [inaudible 00:16:54] had a question about the 7%.

How far off am I here Corbie? Am I pretty close?

Corbie Craig:

It’s not correct by any means, it’s just a way to see…

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I like it.

Corbie Craig:

It’s kind of what other sports books did. 115 would be 53.4%, so if you did -0.07, it should be like +115, 46% chance, so you’re 4% off.

Again, it’s very generalized. There are a lot of things, there’s a many conditions that go into that other than just a blind -7%. But to find a very, if you’re just trying to be quick because at times these are just weighted wrong. I remember you had a Cardinals +140 and they were like a massive favorite. You can just do first five run line -7%, see if you’re anywhere near.

Kyle Purviance:

Which I like, it’s actually really helped me decide if I want to keep these double results or just transfer to a first 5 and this one’s close. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the -0.5 in the first 5 at -115. That’s totally fine as well.

Nathan Serna says his last name is pronounced Mayo. It’s Mayo because the Rays should turn Bayo into mashed mayo tonight. I certainly hope so.

Well we hope so to a degree, not too much, just a little bit but enough to be ahead after the first 5 and of course I’m locking in the Rays double result at +100 and that game starts here in a couple of hours, so we get some day baseball on this smaller card as well.

Our next game on the docket 9-0-7, 9-0-8, we’ve got Joey wins and the Tigers at Aaron Nola and the Phillies -230 to the Phillies. Big favorites here and we’re going to talk about these numbers here because this one, it gets a little bit interesting when we talk about this double result -230 to the Phillies +190 to the Tigers total of 8.5. It’s a pick them either way at -110.

B dub let’s start with you here. We both like the Phillies today. They make me very, very nervous back in Nola. He’s so Jekyll and Hyde, but certainly Aaron Nola has to be better than Joey Wentz, right? Tell me that the Phillies are going to find a way not to crap on our apple pie today.

Basewinner:

I’ve got this game priced at -291 so I like the Phillies here. Obviously it’s just a matter of how are you going to play this. I’d like what you did with it, the halftime full-time. That fact that’s going to be my play on the show Phillies halftime, full time. I’m going to follow you Kyle.

My numbers are kind of mixed on Nola I’ve been way more bullish on them over the years. I’ve got him in the model at 93 but my numbers don’t like Wentz at all. I’ve got him in the model at 123. Nola’s ranked 37th out of 147 pitchers Wentz at 124. Big difference in offense. The Detroit in offense, I have ranked the worst offense in baseball against a disappointing Philly offense and in my model I have them ranked at 20th versus the respective split.

But I think that it comes down to higher level stuff on this for me is like okay well there’s variants within 60 games on what they’ve done. Is this team going to whiff that much on Trey Turner whose super disappointing so far. With 7 software engineers, 6 quants and a guy who’s probably the best bayesian economist and in the world, I don’t think they’re going to miss on this guy. Maybe there’s some injuries that we don’t know and this gets back to us as handicappers not having all the data that’s available and I know they have biometric data on these guys, which we don’t have. Maybe there’s some injuries with these guys, but if there’s not, I don’t see a reason why they won’t regress to their former selves and if they do then we have a really big advantage from an offense standpoint.

For all those reasons, I’m going to go with Philly halftime, full time today guys.

Kyle Purviance:

That price is at +105 and I also went the same route taking the Phillies double result and that wasn’t necessarily to do with I trust the Phillies bullpen after Nola leaves. I don’t necessarily trust Nola that well, he certainly has that implode ability factor.

He profiles, well the tigers for reference, if you look at fantasy points as well, score the fewest fantasy points in the league off of opposing pitchers. I got green light matchup written all over it, we just need Nola to show up but for me this is more about price corps but we just talked about the 7% and the Rays being -115 on the run line in the first 5 and then +100 double result.

The Phillies are -150 on the run line in the first five and +105 to the double result, so we’re getting some real value there. In fact, if you’re looking at my two plays today, you’re trying to pick the double result, which one’s the better value? It’s by far in a way the Phillies in my view. Can Aaron Nola hold up, we got a 627 versus 783 weighted OPS. Joey Wentz has been absolutely horrible, ERA over seven Nola’s got to be able to out dual this guy. Maybe just maybe we can get something out of Kyle Schwarber who’s been absolutely putrid at the plate.

Corbie Craig:

I’m seeing a 160 first 5 which would make this a 120 double result line. Getting 25 cents, I think that’s a really good price to just put in the chat. I just went and bet it myself, I think that’s a really good number. No matter the situations, no matter the players, no matter what you’re getting a price relative to market that is really good. They think that this team is going to win through 5 pretty significantly and win the full game pretty significantly. So +405 by all means I took some.

Kyle Purviance:

Justin Clapton brings up a great point in the chat box that Detroit is on bullpen alert with all their top bullpen guys on the back end won’t pitch today. That that’s also good news and you expect hopefully if this things go the way that we want them to go, the Phillies to have the lead after the first 5 this afternoon.

I also forgot to mention Corbie locked in the Rays team total under 5 in that first game at -115, which I think is a decent price. Fezic mentions the 7% is mathematically better, but I would like a rule of thumb in cents. I think if you get more than 30 cents better, the double is way better. I agree I would love to get the 30 cents we’re getting about 15 cents on the Rays, but like you said here we’re getting from the run line in the first 5 to the double result here we’re getting 65 cents, 55 cents not bad, we’ll take that.

Corbie Craig:

The issue with using cents is all cents aren’t the same. If you had a run line at what 160 and then double resort at 120, that’s what 4% yet it’s still what 40 cents. If you were use that a 7% rule would cross the thresholds of plus money. 100 to 110 isn’t the same from 200 to 210, so that’s why I always use percents. I know a lot of people who use cents, I understand it, but I’m trying to weigh in the idea of expected outcomes being close to sensor, easier to eyeball. I completely agree with Fezic but I just use percentages more often than not. I’m the one that made up the 7% rule so that’s why I did it.

Kyle Purviance:

Look the Tigers third worst batting average as a team in baseball, not a huge strikeout volume team, they were last year, they’ve certainly been better there. Not a lot of power only 47 home runs as a team they have less than one home run per game. This is just not a great offensive team.

I think Nola gets it right and again this is about price for me. I understand the risk with Nola and the Phillies bullpen for that matter and their disappointing lineup for that matter but they do have all the advantages, they check all the boxes for me today and you’re getting good value. So B Dub and I both locking in Phillies double result today and that’s at +105, which I think is a great price.

The last game on our docket and we’re going to start answering questions here. 913, 914 we’ve got Wayne Wright and the Cardinals, Martine Perez and the Rangers -143 to the Rangers +128 to the Cardinals. Of course the total here of 9.5, juice to the overnight in a half at -120 and that’s because look, Perez has a decent record. Right Corbie? At 6 and 1, his ERA is pushing 4.5, he hasn’t been great. Just the Ranger’s offense has been so good.

Then you’ve got Wayne Wright who just hasn’t been good period. This one’s tough. I’d probably lean the over here you’ve got the division leading Rangers and the National League Basement Dwellers and the St. Louis Cardinals who just seem to be getting worse and worse.

Look, we talked about this before the year, this pitching for the Cardinals. They did not come in with great arms and they were going to have to try to make it work and hope that Wayne Wright was good and hope that Flaherty was something like he used to be but bad pitching for the Cardinals, the bats aren’t able to carry them. That’s a tough spot for me here. Rangers, Cardinals, any thoughts on this game?

Corbie Craig:

The Cardinals have really struggled. The biggest issue here is the Rangers, if you wanted the Rangers you kind of missed the prices. Jumped 10 cents since I believe 9:30. I think you’re missing a decent price on the Cardinals. I mean the Rangers, it seems to have fallen back down Pinnacles 134 so if you lie the Rangers wait a minute, you’ll probably get a better number. That would be the side that I would lean towards just I respect the action that moved that line so if it moves back enough, I would probably bet some ranges in the low 130’s, but as of now I’m seeing a lot of books in the 140-145 range. There I’ll lay off.

Kyle Purviance:

I got a freeze here so I’m not sure if we’re all frozen.

Corbie Craig:

Can you hear me? I think we’re good but that’s where I would lean.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I’m sorry there was a connection issue.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, you’re good. Yeah, that’s where I would lean but I haven’t played anything in this game.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s a tough spot for me. Basewinner. I lean the Rangers here just because trusting the Cardinals is very difficult to do. I certainly trust the Rangers offense even though I like the players in that Cardinals lineup, they’re just not getting it done.

It’s a tough one, tough one for me. If this was last year and Wayne Wright’s at the height of his powers, you’re all over the Cardinals, but this gets a little bit difficult here with how Wayne Wright’s been. And Perez despite the good record that’s really a product of getting a ton of run support from these Rangers.

Basewinner:

I think the Cardinals are an interesting team, Kyle. You mentioned that their pitching hasn’t been very good and I would disagree with that. I think that they’re 10th in baseball from XFit minus standpoint. Weight of runs created, plus they’re at 108. I think they’re getting a lot of variance with one run games. You look at their expected wins, it should be 31.6 and that would put them from an expected win standpoint the best team in that central division. The next best team from an expected win standpoint would be the Cubs at 31.

I think that they’re actually performed better than their record is so I think looking at that record might not be the way to go with that. As far as this game goes, I would play against, I just said how much the Cardinals have been better than what they’re perceived as. But in this particular game I think I would go with the Rangers over 2.5 on the first 5 Wayne Wrights numbers are bad, 13.3%, strikeout rates, barrel rates, 12.2%, that’s the 14th percentile. I think that they were expecting him to come back a little bit better than he did last year and so far he’s just shown nothing but garbage really. Like the guy probably should consider retiring based on what he’s shown.

The Rangers talk about missing a team from an analytics standpoint. I will be the first one to admit, this Texas team has really perplexed me. You look at all of their offensive numbers are really, really good. The one thing that strikes me, they’re the third-best team in going over 2.5 on the first 5 and the best team is somewhat surprising with Cincinnati, but maybe not because they’re 71% and then Tampa Bay with 69% and then Texas is 67%. I think that if you put that into the equation, I think if you want to play this game, that would be the way that I would play it guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Justin Clapton brings up a great stat ’cause it is kind of eye-popping when you look at their run differential.

They have the 4th best run differential ever through this many games and the three teams ahead of them were all Yankees teams in the 20s and 30s. Hopefully you guys locked in that eight to one to win the division to start the year ’cause I guarantee you that price isn’t that good right now. I appreciate the Rangers for helping me look smart through this part of the season, but there’s a long way to go and those Astros are only 3.5 games back, so that’s going to be an interesting division, very good team. The Rangers have been really solid. I would lean the Rangers in this one, but again, it’s just a lean, none of us having an official play on this game, but for me, I’d lean the rangers here and I don’t mind that over 9.5. The problem is you just didn’t get the great number on that moving since last night.

Fexic’s, right, Texas run differentials +152, which is eye-popping right now. It really is that that’s kind of like what the Dodgers were at the end of the year last year it feels like it’s an eye-popping number through this part of the year. The Oakland AAA’s, the homeless AAA’s -212. My goodness, that is terrible.

Let’s get to my favorite part of the show. We get the chat box in here and you guys always do a fantastic job. Thank you so much. We ask you to like the show, please subscribe to the channel we certainly appreciate that. Share it out with your friends, all of that good stuff and of course head over to betustv.com/odds to follow along with the odds.

Our first question comes from Joel Sacco and I’m interested to hear both your guys’ thoughts on this because I’m not big on these run hits errors bets, but he asked, “how would you go about pricing, runs, hits, errors, prop versus the total? How would you determine one is a better play versus the other? Thanks guys.”

The runs hits errors is, look, once I lost the first time on a throwing error, that’s when I knew I didn’t want anything to do with this and I kind of feel that way now I probably won’t be doing anything first inning ever again. I just think they’re for the [inaudible 00:30:57], first inning bets are just ridiculous and kind of dumb in my view.

But what about this runs, hits, errors, prop versus total thing? Is there a correlation there? Corby?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I don’t bet runs, hits, errors basically ever, but I think it’s easy to use just a blanket statement of a game is projected, X amount of runs a total at 9 and yet run its errors are X. Usually a game in the 9s is going to have a 27, 27.5 run, hits, errors. There are other me metrics that fall in, but I can think of probably five times I’ve bet runs, hits, errors and it’s just when those numbers are nowhere near. A generalized 9 run game, it’s going to have 27 hits, runs, errors, and then if it has like 24.5 For some odd reason, I will bet that, but it’s not a market that I look into by any means. There’s so many factors and variables that can go into it, it’s just something that I stay pretty far away from.

As of first inning, I tend to agree with you. I think that first inning is something that people fall into but I will say I think there’s value in the variance of first innings. If you get really lucky, I think you can make decent money but I mean there are literally 6 out so you just lower your variant. Time horizons if you extend 3 games versus a season, you’re going to see different results, so that’s the same thing with a first inning bet. It’s just time horizon and the variance that you’re willing to put into a game.

I was betting to win tip in college basketball this year and had to stop sharing it publicly because people just couldn’t handle the day-to-day losses that come with that, but it’s part of the variance that’s going to be in something that’s that short of a time horizon.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh God, the first inning, the first inning’s for the fish, I’ve decided.

Basewinner, what do you think here runs, hits, errors is that something you get in too much? I imagine your model may take that into account. I’m interested to see what it all says.

Basewinner:

Used to price it. I had a different version of the model that had hits involved.

The problem with using hits is that the hits, I guess you could use batting average for that or hits per plate appearance maybe would be a little bit better but it doesn’t stabilize very quickly so you have to have this really huge sample and some of these teams don’t even have that sample. You look at a Texas team, a lot of players have projections there. The way baseball’s going is you’re not even going to get a big enough sample for hits on something that might not even be reliable and really doesn’t really get to that alpha rate where you want it to. I avoid it, you can price it but there’s going to be a lot of luck involved in those hits plus runs plus errors and you didn’t even get into the air component of it, which is just dependent on.

I saw a guy score an error the other day that, I mean really, no they gave a guy a hit, I can’t remember the exact play but it was in the Angels game and the guy’s like really they gave that guy a hit on that? I think Neto made a bad play at shortstop and so you got to deal with official scorekeepers and it’s like if you can handicap that then you’re a better person than me so I would personally avoid it.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, me too. I tend to avoid it just from just looking at it very generally, I would say if you got a total going over if you like an over in the total, I would imagine the runs hits errors, there may be a quarter, especially with the runs and hits part, I don’t know so much about the errors. That’s the part that just makes it a little bit difficult for me, you’re right because now you’re dealing with scorekeepers and a throwing error here or a guy drops a ball, it’s just for me, too many unknowns. It’s a little too weird and so I tend to stay away from that.

Our next question from Mel, “what do you guys think about the Rangers team total over?”

Right now that number’s sitting at 5, the overs -110. At BetUS it’s awfully high, I just don’t know that I’m getting there. Can that offense get there against Wayne Wright? Sure, but what if Wayne Wright kind of turns it around and starts being the Adam Wayne Wright we knew before. To me that number’s just about right, if you’re leaning rangers in the game, I don’t mind taking rangers and over if you want to correlate it somehow. What do you think your Basewinner on this team total? Because it seems right spot on for me.

Basewinner:

Yeah, no I play against Wayne Wright in the first 5, I went over that when we talked about the game. Texas over that 2.5 at home, 67% of the time. Wayne Wrights talked about his barrel rate, 14 percentile, talked about his strikeout rate, third percentile. I think he got a lot of things going for you in that first five innings. That’s how I would do it guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Fezic brings up a great point about the runs, hits, errors. You know could be way under and the next thing a guy hits a three run home run and that just added 4 to the total. Things can go pretty quickly, can go wrong or right I suppose pretty quickly in that scenario.

Corbie, what do you think here about this Ranger’s team total at 5?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, getting a home team, I don’t think that you’re getting a great number by any means. I think five probably happens a lot so unless it was like five plus money then I’m laying low but to be at home, it’s not a number that I’m just dying to go bet by any means.

Kyle Purviance:

You make a great point with being the home team, especially if you’re leaning that way and they have the leads, they’re not going to get that 9th at bat, right? If they’re up 4-2 in the 7th inning, you’re sweating, you’re sweating hard.

For me probably a stay away, I think that’s priced and numbered just about right.

What’s going on basement or what do you got? Something’s up.

Basewinner:

I went to when you play that home team team total over and they’re like 1 away and it goes into the top of the ninth and they’re up by 2, then you just start rooting for the away team because you want them to tie the score. It’s like get it into that 10th inning.

That’s what I smiled about because all this the whole time you’re rooting for this one team and that that’s the beauty of playing these team totals is you don’t have to pay attention to the other side really. You know you just okay I’ll you pay attention to something out.

What’s up?

Kyle Purviance:

You absolutely want a running mate, you’re right.

If a team I have a team total on gets down 3-0 early, I’m happy. Hey, at least I know they got to push the pace and try to score some runs, you definitely want a running mate. It’s more important than football. I love team totals in the NFL. I almost exclusively do that in the NFL team totals and props and you always want that running mate, right? If you have a team total like over 26.5 in the NFL and your team’s up 24-0 at the half, you’re nervous because are they going to even try to push the pedal to the metal and even try to score again and then you got to worry about kickers. It’s all sorts of things there but it is interesting. Probably a stay away from me.

Our next question from Scott Christensen he says, “are the cubs +1.5 at -135? A good play with Hendrix versus Blake Smells.” And he really does smell Blake Snell tonight was better in his last start. I actually had the Cubs yesterday, I took them on the run line in the first five on Stroman day against Carl Weathers against Apollo Creed yesterday I thought of you Basewinner or yesterday during that Padres game.

What do we think here today? Cubs +1.5. Who’s on the mound for the Cub? Oh yeah, it’s Hendrick’s day against Blake Snell. Look, the problem for me is I don’t hate that on the surface, but Hendricks is still just coming back. He’s only made a couple of Starks, he hasn’t been necessarily dominant or great in either one of those. He’s pitched 9 innings all year long.

What do you think Basewinner, are we taking the Cubs plus +1.5 here? The Padres awfully disappointing. They’re the only bottom 15 smaller market team with a payroll over 200 million dollars. Wildly disappointing, they’ve heard all the metrics on that graph, but I’m not sure I’m backing the 1.5, just not at -135 are we even getting enough meat on the bone to back the Cubs in that way today? What do you think?

Basewinner:

I don’t know, it’s too much. I guess not enough sample with Hendrix. A lot of it’s just based on projections. Snells interesting, I mean he’s still finding a way to strike out 25% of the guys, he’s at 24.7 last 150 plate appearances. ISO power’s still pretty good. I don’t know how much of that’s the most recent 200 plate appearances or how much of that’s the previous 400 plate appearances, but he is in the 66 percentile.

The barrel rate’s not good with Snell, he’s in the 15th percentile barrel rate and the pitching plus stuff his stuff is good, it’s very interesting. His stuff is stuff plus his 84 percentile. His location plus is three percentile. Gives his pitching plus 21 percentile.

I don’t know, I’ve tended to stay away from this Padres team. I just can’t get a good read on it and for me there’s 29 other teams that I think I’m better at so I’m going to probably stay away from the Padres at least for the short term.

The one thing I will say about San Diego games, you’re looking at Juan Soto’s plate discipline, recent plate discipline, which I think is in predictive moving forward, it’s been really good. I think that if you want to do something and really you might want to, this is the kind of a standalone game late at night. Maybe look at a Soto total bass prop that’s maybe how I would play it guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Juan Soto was getting a lot of grief earlier in this year. Juan Soto’s been playing really well and his numbers are trending in the right direction.

But you know who’s been nothing but hot garbage are a couple of those righties. Manny Machado, absolutely godawful Xander Bogart’s, not much better. I don’t think this is Juan Soto’s fault at all, but the Padres are a tough team, I’m staying away from this. If that was reverse and it was Cubs +1.5 at +135, I might be a little bit more interested but at -135 unpredictable Padres team that you just feel is going to explode at any moment. Hendrix coming off Tommy John’s surgery only a couple starts in. Blake Snell has been better his last couple of starts. I almost lean the Padres here, but they’re tough to back.

What do you think here, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I think I’m going to bet some Padres first 5 run line. I just really hate Hendrix. I talked about this on the show plenty of times, but I don’t like pitchers who can’t throw a ball of any significance of velocity. This guy’s throwing 87 on a 4 scene. I understand if your primary pitch is a splitter or something, it still needs to be up there a little higher in velocity so he can get some deception. But he’s throwing a fast ball in 87 and then he can drop down to 79. I just don’t think that he gets any deception from that, especially with the lack of feel from right off tommy john.

I lean towards the Padres offense cleaning it up it’s the whole roster payroll thing. This team is obviously good and they just haven’t played good. Blake Snells looked good as of late. We’ve talked about the Nationals kind of depth about how the nationals don’t strike out. He struck out 6 in 5 innings his last outing or 2 outings ago and then the Marlins, he went six innings of 0 runs, 3 hits, 7 strikeouts. He looks good. He’s still struggling with walks. If you could find a walk prop, he walked 2 or more like every single game this year basically. I think Snell it’s a good place for him to get right. I just really don’t trust Hendrix, so I definitely wouldn’t lean towards the Cubs. Maybe like some form of a team total if you wanted to, but I’ll probably be betting some Padres first 5.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it gets a little bit tough with that one. You guys are going to have to help me with this next question because I’m not exactly sure what it means.

Comes from Luis Martinez it says, “Astros and Brewers the move today, right?” With a question mark. I don’t know what that means. You got Teherán and Bielak on the mound complete stay away from me in every way, I would lean the Astros here.

Teherán’s been better than he should be right now, right? I think. Astros getting hot, playing better. The Brewers I never trust. I don’t understand the question.

Do you get a Basewinner? Can you help me here?

Basewinner:

I don’t know, maybe there was a transaction earlier today that we missed something, I don’t know. Maybe they traded. Maybe talking about the line move. I’m not…

Corbie Craig:

No, he’s saying the move means it’s a young kid’s term. It means, is that what you’re taking today? The Astros and the Brewers? That’s the move.

Basewinner:

Oh, okay. Well that’s good that we have…

Kyle Purviance:

It’s like sus and based, I’m learning about all these things.

 My son had a birthday party here with his friends this weekend and I don’t understand what any of this. Drippy, my son apparently says he’s drippy, which I don’t know what the hell that means.

Corbie Craig:

You need to punish him, put him in a closet or something.

Kyle Purviance:

I really want to, yeah.

Corbie Craig:

He can’t be saying that.

Kyle Purviance:

Drippy. You’ve got Drip. I’m like wait, what? I thought that, nevermind. Drip means that was a Saturday night in Vegas where I had too much la coca and I had a drip going down. You know what I mean? That’s what I thought drip meant.

Basewinner:

I knew it was going to go there. I just did. I knew you were going to go there.

Kyle Purviance:

At least I did go to the clap or whatever where you got to take a penicillin. The other drip you got to take penicillin to get rid of. But nonetheless, I digress here.

Is Astros and brewers the move today? In young man talk.

Corbie Craig:

I think the Astros one is interesting if you’re going to do it. Somebody talked about this on the show and I think that there’s a good point behind Alex Manoah getting kind of tired with his pitch clock and it seems like he can’t work as deep into innings and the guy in the chat said it was because he’s hefty. I’m not going to say that that’s the reason, but I thought it was a pretty funny rationale as why he hasn’t went deep. He’s went four innings 3 times out of his last 5 and 3 in another. There’s something worth noting. Maybe if you want the Astros wait till the 3rd inning, maybe he looks good through 3 and starts to regress down pretty quick. If you could get tied in the 3rd inning and get numbered near market, then I think probably be in an okay spot.

As for the Brewers, I don’t really want to back Teherán by any means. I know the spread did last week and he was right and I faded him and I was wrong, so I don’t know. Teherán, his stuff has looked a lot better than I expected it, I think people probably tossed him into the old man shunned category too fast and that’s…

Kyle Purviance:

At 32?

Corbie Craig:

As spread’s talked about, he’s really not as old as people probably give him out to be. Think his stuff’s plenty fine, would lean that way. I hate the Reds. I bet the reds yesterday was dumbest bet I made all season. I would lean towards both of those but I wouldn’t just be running to any counter to go bet him by any means.

Kyle Purviance:

Look at this people just trying to get Basewinner to bust out raps here on a Monday. It’s every other week, we got to keep the people wanting and waiting and this is good advice.

Basewinner:

What are they asking for?

Kyle Purviance:

It just says Basewinner bust out a rap. They just want it, bust it out right now. That’s not how it works. He’s not your show pony okay.

Basewinner:

I’m open to taking suggestions though, so if you guys want me to work on something let me know. We’re going to do it every other Friday now because it does take me some time to come up with a quality rap. But I think that the next one’s going to be good. Maybe we could even get Corbie to participate, but I don’t know man. I think I’ll have to call up that local Chick-fil-A and make sure that they can extend breakfast for him. Otherwise, he’s going to pout all show.

Corbie Craig:

I would enjoy that.

Kyle Purviance:

I love it. Over a hundred people watching live again here in the chat box. We certainly appreciate you guys and we remind you we get to as many questions as we can that time will allow if we don’t get to your question, it’s not personal, it’s not ’cause it’s a bad question, we just can’t get to it. Of course I to remind you guys, if it happens a few days in a row where you ask a question and we don’t get to it, mention in the chat box. I will see it and I’ll make sure that we do our best to get to your question. We don’t want to leave anybody out, but really thank you to everyone for watching. The growth of the show as the year goes on is just incredible to me. It’s all because of you guys and we certainly appreciate that.

Our last question, it’s from Mel, who we love. It could be Melvin, could be Melanie, we have no idea. I love the suspense there by the way, with Mel.

The question is, “thoughts on the Marlins double result today with Braxton Garrett?” Now I have to look what the price on that is. I’m going to throw it to you guys, but we’ve got Braxton Garrett on the mound for the Marlins who you know, hasn’t been terrible, hasn’t been great. Came one out of cash that under 16.5 ounce, just barely. I got to 16 ounce last week.

The Royals, it looks like they’re opening with Carlos Hernandez. This is going to be a bullpen day for the Royals. The Royals bullpen for what it’s worth here have the third-highest ERA in all of baseball as a team.

Basewinner let’s start with you here. Marlins double result with Braxton Garrett. They should have the pitching advantage today. I’ll pull up the price here while you’re talking about it. What do you think your Marlins, Royals?

Basewinner:

I think Corbie said he made the stupidest bed he ever made yesterday. I might have made the stupidest bed I ever made with his Kansas City Royals over team totally yesterday and they were facing some gas can. No, they faced Gomber on Saturday and thank God I backed off that they couldn’t go over 2.5 runs first 5 against Gomber and then they had Freeland who’s just you know what I think about Kyle Freeland? Not much. You look at this Kansas City, how many times they’ve gone over that 2.5 team total in the first 5, only 30%. I don’t know. I think if you play it, you got to play Miami.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s +150 that double result. I’m about to make that official on the show, I swear to God. I love that price.

Basewinner:

Braxton Garrett, you look at his base winner, ERA it’s good. It’s 3.22. Better strikeout for 17% better from a strikeout standpoint, 30% better from a walk standpoint. I don’t know. I just think that some of these games are probably best not bet, but that’s just my opinion, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

I like this price. I kind of wish I wasn’t asked about it because now I’m in and RIP, Thomas Nido. He will no longer be with the Mets and Ed I just didn’t want you to think that you’re the only one that cares because I’m in a caring mood today. I care about Corbie and his feelings and I care about Thomas Nido and I care about yours. This +150 price is starting to call to me a little bit. Am I crazy ’cause I want to back the Marlins today Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

I’m getting you a price right now.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s calling to me.

Corbie Craig:

Itt would be a good MLB bet just using the same rule always. It should be 44% and you’re getting 40%. So 4% little baby edge on the double boards, so I don’t hate it by any means.

One second, I’m looking for the numbers. The Braxton Garrett prop I felt really good at and it looks like he was close at 16 ounce and we had 16.5, felt great about it the entire time. I wasn’t even really worried. He had 79 pitches and he came out at five and a third. Why? I genuinely just don’t think that they want him to go 70. I don’t understand it, so I’ve been looking at this.

Kyle Purviance:

You nailed it on the head. You talked about them not wanting him to throw a lot and he was going just fine and they just pulled him at like 73.

Corbie Craig:

He had 7 strikeouts, 1 walk and 79 pitches. Why pull him after [inaudible 00:50:50]? It makes no sense, but they continue to do it. For that, I’m looking for some Braxton Garrett props. I cannot find his pitching outs. I guess bookmakers are like, “Hey, maybe this kid knows what he is talking.” I’m just kidding they didn’t do that.

I would love to see some Braxton Garrett props at 15.5, 16. He’s not going 17 unless he has a no-hitter going and then it’s still questionable. We still say him get pulled after 6 with a no-hitter. Another thing to note on him is he’s starting to throw strike strikeouts so now his strike… I watch this kid too much it’s one of the people that I’ve probably watched the most. What I’ve noticed is his strikeout props are starting to get pounded up up up. Now we’re seeing 5.5 and he is not a six strikeout pitcher. I’m not betting it at 5.5 yet. I’m going to hope to God that he throws 11 strikeouts today and one day we get a Braxton Garrett, 6.5 Strikeouts ’cause he’s a contact pitcher he doesn’t care.

In 2022 you can go look through his metrics. There was several games where he had one strikeout in a pretty good game, he’s not trying to deceive anybody. He has good movement that makes soft contact and then he’ll have a random 11 strikeout game. But if we can get those 6.5, by all means I’ll start hitting them pretty hard or a 5.5 juice, less than 140. For now, laying off the Braxton Garrett strikeout props. Imagine if he does good today, probably next outing I’ll be on and under in the strikeout props.

Kyle Purviance:

What’s interesting about this Royals bullpen as I continue to look, so they have the 3rd highest ERA in all of baseball as a team, but they also have the most strikeouts. Their bullpen has struck out more hitters than any other bullpen in baseball 266, but they also have the second-highest whip, so it feels like it’s either strikeout or nothing. It’s all or nothing for this Royals bullpen.

Basewinner:

What number would you trust more? Would you trust the strikeout percentage or would you trust the ERA?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, exactly. It makes it a little tough.

Basewinner:

I would trust the strikeout percentage. I think that’s a more reliable number.

Kyle Purviance:

Let me see how high of a volume strikeout team the Marlins are. I really am thinking about making this official, the Marlins not striking out a ton. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 12th fewest strikeouts in all of baseball. I love that number. Do I dare make three double results official on the show? Do I have that kind of luck? I think I like that price and I think it’s hard to ignore that price. I like that +150, I’m going to make it show official. I’m going to type it in here on the chat box or here on our sheet. Marlin’s double result at +150 I like quite a bit, so I’m locking. I’m going to make that official on the show. I think that’s a good call by Mel. I like that quite a bit, I’m making it official today.

Corbie Craig:

I think your only worry is a tie through 5. I mean again, at the price you’re getting, I think it’s plenty fine. 150 I think it’s really good bet overall.

Kyle Purviance:

For the record, ty Marlin’s a six to one, so if you take Ty and then Marlin’s to win the full game. If you take ty first 5 and then the Marlins second half, it’s 6-1. If you want to hedge that way and say, “Hey, I want to protect myself a little bit and throw a little sprinkle on the ty halftime Marlin’s full result at 6-1.” That’s an interesting way to do it but again, you got to get real specific so that’s why you get the juice.

I like that Marlins double result that’s a good find, that’s a good eye. That’s how I know we’re getting through to people here. +150, I can’t believe I’m taking a Marlins double result today, but we’re going to go for it.

That is our final question. Again, thank you to everyone watching 105 people live in there right now. The best chat box in the industry, you guys drive the show. All you guys are so smart, you’re getting smarter by the day now you’re helping us. I don’t know what happened to Zach. Does [inaudible 00:54:29] get released as well from Cleveland, I mean whatever. He would be the best pitcher on the Oakland AAA’s. Kyle McCollin says he’s got the Royals money line. Well, thank you one of us will be happy. I’m taking your play, Mel. Yep, I’ve learned my lesson, I just like it. I didn’t realize the price and I love that price. It’s too hard of a value to take away from so we’re going to take it.

Let’s go over our best bets and get you guys out of here on a Monday. See, we still find a way to go 55 minutes, Bdub, it doesn’t matter. We find a way.

I am locking in three double results. Of course, the one on the show Marlins at +150, Rays at even money.

Both Basewinner and I are on the Phillies double result at +105, which I think is another great price.

Corbie is on the Rays team total under 5, so hopefully the Red Sox score like under three, but he’s taken that at -115.

Again, thank you all so, so much for watching. It’s super humbling how much this is growing, really really, really want to thank you guys and all the great questions. Really appreciate all that.

Don’t forget to subscribe to the channel, share it with your friends.

Have a great Monday. Start enjoying this summer weather. Don’t do anything none of us wouldn’t do.

Corbie, I hope your day gets better, man. Nobody deserves that kind of punishment.

Corbie Craig:

I’m headed to go pack up some coffee, so day’s going to lighten up.

Kyle Purviance:

There you go.

Y’all sweet coffee don’t forget to check that out on shelves, flying off shelves in a store near you. From myself, Basewinner, Corbie and all the people behind the scenes.

Have a great Monday and of course, don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website, good luck on all your future wagers.