Spreadapedia:

Yeah, sorry about that. I had to let my housekeeper in actually.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, first world problems. See, we did the first world problems with Corbie yesterday with no water in the sauna and, well, I can’t remember, he had to park on the street or something like that.

Basewinner:

And he was bitter about it. He’s like, “Yeah, I didn’t have water in my sauna. And then Chick-fil-A was serving lunch.”

Kyle Purviance:

Oh yeah, Chick-fil-A.

Basewinner:

Like man, wow.

Kyle Purviance:

And then today we got Jason letting his housekeeper in, so giving us the nice cold opening. So there you go. First world problems here at BetUS TV.

Spreadapedia:

I hope you did enjoy that though. I tried.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, we did. We absolutely enjoyed that. We love all of that. Guys, yesterday was a good day on the show, but who it was not a good day for was Alek Manoah. Absolutely terrible outing, one out through nine innings and it’s crazy. For me it’s starting to get uncomfortable because you start getting these young … You hate to see young guys kind of fall apart like this so early in their career. Last season in 196 and a half innings, he allowed 55 total runs in nearly 200 innings. This year through only 58 innings he’s allowed 45 runs, one out through nine batters last night. Is Alek Manoah done? Is there something they can do with him? Jason, is there something you’re seeing with him when he is throwing? Is it this pitch clock? Is he one of these heavier guys struggling with the pitch clock? It’s starting to get uncomfortable for me with Alek Manoah.

Spreadapedia:

What I’ve seen from other people and what seems to be the most common explanation is that he is not in good shape and the pitch clock is affecting him. I don’t necessarily know anything about his conditioning. I did see a meme on Twitter last night, him looking at an iPad in the dugout and then it zoomed in on the iPad and it was his McDonald’s app with his bonus points.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, that’s not nice.

Spreadapedia:

That made me laugh. That made me laugh a lot. It was good. I love the McDonald’s app too. Anyway.

Kyle Purviance:

I like the Burger King app where you get the free stuff for the crowns and stuff. The Burger King app’s legit, it really is. I love getting … I just got a free whopper the other day from my Burger King app and you have it delivered. It’s fantastic.

Spreadapedia:

But I saw something today, the Blue Jays said all options are on the table, which even means a potential demotion to triple A. I don’t know if that’s necessarily the way to go. I think that’s a very extreme option but it’s possibility at this point. Maybe you have to skip them a turn in the rotation but he doesn’t look good.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s brutal. It’s brutal. And look, of course I like the Blue Jays coming into the season and they’ve got a ton of talent but it’s not like I have a stake in this. I don’t know him personally. I’m not necessarily a Blue Jays fan. But, Basewinner, it is a little bit weird to see a guy, he was a finalist for the Cy Young last year. A 224 ERA, we talked about only 55 runs in 196 and a half innings, and this year just an ERA over six. What are we going to do with Alek Manoah? I love all the craziness over here on the right side.

Basewinner:

I don’t know, I don’t think he was as good as he showed. Now you mentioned he was a 224 ERA. His xFIP was a lot higher than that actually, 397 last year. Looking at his velocity, it doesn’t seem like there’s been a huge decrease. It was 93 low last year and now it’s 92 high. This is the thing about baseball, sometimes it’s the variance of the game and you could have a guy that his numbers look really crappy this year, but it’s the same guy, just different results. So I don’t know, read into it what you want. Maybe they need to … I don’t think sending a person down’s the worst thing in the world, especially if maybe he could get some more work down as opposed to he’s probably going to get yanked out of all these games because he’s getting … He got yanked yesterday after, what, did he last an inning yesterday?

Kyle Purviance:

No, he recorded one out. Faced nine batters, recorded one out and they yanked him.

Basewinner:

Yeah and that’s a competitive division so I think that that’s maybe what you do with him. I guess you could put him in the bullpen, I don’t know. What a disappointment though for the Blue Jays he’s been.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, just real bad and I don’t know, just for me you like when young stars are going to sort of carry the game and you think you have these guys figured out and you kind of feel for them. I feel for them anyways. It’s a weird thing to go through for such a young guy in his early to mid 20s kind of stinks. Kind of embarrassing. I feel for the guy.

We have a lot of games to go. Let’s go over our records and then let’s get into these games. Again, ask your questions in the chat box. We’ll get to that Q&A section at the end of the show. Clean sweep yesterday. Shout out to Mel for bringing that Marlin’s double result to my attention. That was a sweater of a game. The Royals came out and we were up four nothing in the third inning. Marlin’s come all the way back to take the lead in the first five. Nice day yesterday. The Phillies finally didn’t let us down, Bdub, so that was nice for us yesterday. So let’s keep it going. Sitting in the black, that’s where we want to be.

Nine games above 500 wins or losses. I like seeing that through 255 MLB picks. First game on the docket: 959 960. We got Varland and the Twins, Eflin and the Rays. Minus 170 to the rays. That’s a big number for an Eflin start in my view. Plus 150 to the Twins, total of seven and a half. Pretty low total here and it’s a pick either way at minus 110. Jason, let’s start with you here. You’re the dog chaser on the show. Should we be backing Varland, who I think has looked better in his last couple of starts, or is Eflin going to continue to be the man?

This Rays lineup, they got it done for me yesterday finally in the fifth inning. But there seems to be a lot … For a team who’s as good as they are and whose numbers have been as good as they are, when you just watch a Rays game, there’s an awful lot of outs in that lineup. What do you think here? Twins/Rays? Oh we lost audio on Jay.

Spreadapedia:

I was on mute. My bad.

Kyle Purviance:

There we go. There we go.

Spreadapedia:

Not used to that. Sorry. Rays are one of the best teams in baseball still, but price wise, 161, 170 little steep here. I’m on the Twins today, I think plus 150. Very good price to back the Twins here. You don’t have to bet on the Rays every day, even though they’re very good.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, we scored on them yesterday. I was happy yesterday. Basewinner, 693 weighted OPS here for Eflin and Louie Varland an 875. Now, again, a smaller sample size for Louie Varland, but his last start was his best start of the year, no doubt about it. Can he keep it going today? My longer numbers say this is a Rays spot against Varland here, but Jay’s right, that’s a good price for … I think it’s a much more even pitching matchup than my numbers are saying. So that’s why I’m kind of disregarding him here. Plus 150 seems like a good price on the Twins.

Basewinner:

Yeah, this is a tough game for me to handicap. I’ve got it at minus 161. Varland’s one of those guys where if you’re using strikeouts and walks, he looks pretty good actually. But then if you go into the batted ball data, he doesn’t look good. So I think for me guys like this are confusing because you can rate them probably 10%, 15% better than average using that strikeout and walk model. But then if you go into a ball in play event data model, he scores just horribly. So for me it’s a stay away. Eflin I thinks exceeded really expectations. I don’t know if he’s that good. His numbers are decent though. I think that this is a classic case of where you have, especially the starting pitching for Minnesota, a guy that’s really hard to figure because he’s just a dichotomy and different model.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I completely agree and I bet you the Phillies are wishing they would’ve held onto to Eflin. They certainly could use an arm like him today. Although Nola came through yesterday, even got me a strikeout prop. I appreciated that and I love that yesterday we had, I was on the Rays double result which they get and Corbie had the Rays team total under five which they got. So that was one of those things where you got the under and you got the win, which doesn’t happen all the time. So the baseball gods were on our side. Let’s knock on wood and hope they stay on our side today. For purposes of this show we’re locking in Twins moneyline plus 150 for Spreadapedia in this first game.

Our next game on the docket: 971 972. It’s Kaprielian day for the homeless Triple As against Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Minus 260 favorites for the Pirates, plus 210 to the A’s. Total of eight and a half, a little bit of juice to the over at minus 115. Another baseball meeting came and went, Basewinner. Another non vote on whether the A’s are moving to Vegas or not. A lot going on with the A’s and none of it is good. To me this is the second biggest pitching disparity on the card today. Keller exponentially better in my view than Kaprielian. I’m getting a minus 260 favorite here and I’m getting plus 110 on the double results. So I took that, Basewinner. Is that too easy? Am I missing something here or should I be safe with the Pirates?

Basewinner:

I think that’s a way to play this game from a pricing standpoint. I’ve got it priced right at minus 260 so I’m right in the market. I don’t think that this Pirates offense, and I’m not opposed to it, they have some good plate discipline skills. I’ve got them ranked 15th in baseball. It’s not like I’m against this Pirates offense. It’s just, I don’t think that they’re a team that at this point should be minus 260. I don’t think they’re bullpen’s strong enough. Just my thought.

And I’ve played on Keller a lot. One thing about Keller, you look at his strikeout percentage, it’s really good, 32.7%. ISO power allowed last 600 that’s in the top 10% of all pitchers. So you look at that, that’s pretty good. His barrel rate’s not so good, it’s in the 26th percentile, 0.104. So you wonder if he’s due for some regression.

Having said that, Basewinner ERA for Keller is ninth in baseball, 2.70, while Kaprielian’s is very crappy. You could actually put a … it could be KR instead of KA, first part of his name. But his ERA is 7.46. Basewinner ERA is a little bit better than that but still not good, 5.42. So I just think it’s a path for me. But I do like the way you play the double result. I think that Keller could be dominant against his team and if he is, they should be able to get a couple runs to put them up at five, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah and look, that’s kind of how I view this. When you look at the Pirates, no, I agree. Not a ton of talent in that bullpen but still the seventh lowest team bullpen ERA and baseball. Of course the A’s are historically bad and the worst. So if I think Keller is a better pitcher than Kaprielian, which I think everyone would agree he certainly is. We’ve got the advantage there 895 to 622 by the way on that weighted OPS over a two year sample size.

Then we get into the back end of the A’s bullpen and they’re trailing so you’re not getting great arms. Maybe we didn’t get a Fujinami appearance, who’s just terrible. I see no reason why the Pirates can’t hold onto this lead here. I think I’m getting a great price, a minus 260 favorite with their best pitcher on the mound against the worst pitcher on the A’s besides Fujinami, and I’m getting a plus 110. Am I getting this number right? Jason, did I get a good number here?

Spreadapedia:

Man, just bringing up that name brought me back to some upsetting stuff from last night. Did you happen to watch Pirates/A’s yesterday at all? Either you guys?

Kyle Purviance:

No. No.

Spreadapedia:

As we know I’m insane. So I was watching that game or I was watching the last four innings.

Kyle Purviance:

Sounds horrible. That sounds so bad.

Spreadapedia:

And not only that but it occurred to me it’s the third Monday in a row I’ve had money on the A’s. And it was just not like some sort of got to bet the A’s because it’s Monday, just I happened to the price three weeks in a row. So I’m sitting here third Monday in a row watching the A’s at the Pirates, they have the lead and Fujinami comes in, just walks guy after guy, walks in the tying run. It was just everything I watched was little league play. The defense, the fielding, the batting. In the ninth inning Ruiz gets on base with one out, gets caught stealing second base, they get two more hits would’ve tied the game right there. So just stupid stuff. And to what Basewinner said, it’s such a huge price to lay with Pittsburgh. That’s exactly what I was thinking yesterday and I felt really, really good right until the end when they couldn’t get it done. So I’m off it today, which means the A’s probably win. I’m out. I can’t do it.

Kyle Purviance:

Now that’s one of Only Fans title. It’s really frustrating. You’re feeling really good and everything is going fine and then you just can’t get it done. Your calves tighten up, you got foot cramps, you just can’t finish the job. But yeah look, I totally agree here. And look, I like the plus 110. No way in hell would I ever bet the Pirates as minus 260 favorites. But I think I have an exponential pitching advantage here. We know we have the lineup advantage. Even though the Pirates lineup is nothing to write home about, they’re certainly better than the A’s lineup and of course I think the bullpen’s better here. So I got all three check marks.

Mo Harris, welcome. I appreciate all the kind words. I love it when Mo Harris is here because I know I’m getting nice things said about me in the chat box. But plus 110 to me feels like a free square. Honestly I think the number’s too good to pass up. Betting against fading a historically bad A’s team with the Pirate’s best pitcher on the mound. So I’m locking in the Pirates double result at plus 110 on this one. It’s funny, now I go over, I’m just making sure that I didn’t miss anything and that Jason’s not taking a crazy price on the Oakland A’s. So I just had to make sure you’re not betting them today. Double check.

And don’t you worry, Mo. There’s plenty of times in my coffee cup that there is Modelo but I’ve been trying to be 2% less worse every day and maybe not drink so early in the morning and be a little bit better version of myself. So that’s what we got to do. But don’t you worry, don’t you worry. Oftentimes there’s whiskey in that coffee. We’re doing something to lighten to lighten up in here. So don’t you worry Mo Harris, we appreciate you all for watching. Hit that like button, ask your questions. We’ll get to them in the Q&A section at the end of the show.

Next game on the docket: 963 964. We’ve got Hunter Brown and the Astros, Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Minus 125 to the Blue Jays, plus 115 to the Astros, total of eight here. A little bit of juice to the under eight at minus 120. Basewinner, let’s go to you here first. We know the Blue Jays are going to need Gausman to go deep into this game. Their bullpen was overworked yesterday obviously with Manoah not even getting out of the first inning. I have both these pitchers profiling pretty well against a couple of talented lineups here. What do you like? Astros/Blue Jays?

Basewinner:

Yeah, they’re both really good pitchers by my rating and this is a game, I’m not going to overthink it. I’ve got Brown at 66 Basewinner number, so 33% better than average, and Gausman, he’s 45% better than average. One of the things that’s interesting, I think, about Hunter Brown is he’s been better on the road. You look at a median Basewinner number of 66 on the road as opposed to his 83 at home and you look at his last … I guess you could go back to all of his starts in ’23, he’s had five starts and his first started at Minnesota he was 29% strikeout rate. Atlanta, against a good Atlanta team they do strike out a lot, but anyway, 29% strikeout rate. Tampa Bay, 35% strikeout rate. The Angels, he only had a 14% strikeout rate but his last two games against the White Sox and Oakland, he’s at 32% and 38%.

So he’s been really good on the road and I really don’t even price that in, into the model at least. It’s just more of an ancillary thing, which I think helps us. I’ve got to price 6.5 runs so I think we’re getting value on the eight. Both guys’ strikeout percentage over 30% last 150 plate appearances, ISO power Gausman in the top 15 percentile and Hunter Brown is in the 98th percentile for ISO allowed. So I think there’s just a lot of really good pitching metrics, not to mention the bullpens and you know how I like this Houston bullpen, they’re number one in baseball. I’ve got Toronto in the top 10, they’re number 10 in baseball. So I think there’s a lot of things that indicate that this game going to go under and I’m just not going to overthink it, I’ll just play the under. I think that’s the best bet on the board guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, there we go. Jason, two good offenses, two good pitchers. I have them both profiling in the low sixes in terms of weighted OPS against the opposing lineup. What do you think here? Jays/Astros? We liking that under from Basewinner? I think that makes a ton of sense. The lineup talent scares me of course when you talk about these two teams, but I do think the under makes sense.

Spreadapedia:

Under is not one of my favorite plays today, but I don’t know, I don’t mind your reasoning. Could be right. Hunter Brown though, I’m pretty impressed with him. He certainly out pitched Justin Verlander, the pitcher he is replacing. But yeah this is an interesting game. Powerful lineups. I don’t know, eight’s a tough number. Did you bet under eight or eight and a half?

Basewinner:

It’s actually juiced minus 120, but I’m projecting 6.5 runs so I think based on that it’s a good play.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. If you’re getting 6.5 that’s … yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

There we go. I love our chat box. I don’t know what Abe means, “I miss the old Kyle.” Nothing is different. I just maybe don’t have the giant cans on the screen. Everyone does such a beautiful job making the show look so great so I don’t want to ghetto it up with a giant tallboy can on here so I got to hide it in my coffee cup, man. That’s all we’re doing. I gave you details on getting sniffed, which grossly offended Basewinner. We’re going to talk about Jesus day, lots of stuff going on good here and Ed Bluss says, “Spread, you need to ease up on your enthusiasm today.” So Jason, you’re too enthusiastic today so you need to calm it down apparently. But no, for purposes of this show, I like the reasoning here under eight minus 120 in this Astros/Blue Jays game for Basewinner. We are locking that in.

Next game on the docket: 953 954. We’ve got Gonsolin and the Dodgers, Weaver and the Reds. Minus 178 to the Dodgers, plus 158 to the Reds. See the total here of 10 and a half. It’s a pick up either way at minus 110 and Corbie’s in there. “We need some y’all sweet tea coffee, we need some y’all sweet coffee.” I hope sales went yesterday. Hope your brother’s doing good in the show.

So let’s start with you here, Jason. Look, so I just talked about the great number I’m getting for the Pirates. So let’s look at it. The Pirates were minus 260 favorites with their best pitcher on the mound and a better ranking bullpen and their double result is plus 110. The Dodgers behind Gonsolin, which today this is the biggest pitching discrepancy on my card and weighted OPS, minus 178 favorite but the double result I’m getting at minus 120. So you can see where of those two the Pirates is certainly the better value. So it’s one of those interesting things to keep an eye on when you’re doing the double result sort of deal here. But Gonsolin/Weaver, I think Gonsolin has a 538 weighted OPS and weighted OPS of over 900 for Weaver against the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers a lot here. I took their double result minus 120. What do you think, Jay? Dodgers/Reds?

Spreadapedia:

High scoring game. I want to know what Basewinner makes of this total, but I think we’re going to see a lot of runs here. Obviously Dodgers should be able to get to the pitching but I would expect a lot of runs from both teams in this game.

Kyle Purviance:

So you think the Reds get to Gonsolin. My numbers indicate that may not be the case. Now of course the Reds keep calling up players. Yesterday it was Abbott, not named to Elly De La Cruz.

Spreadapedia:

He’s coming though.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m hearing that has a lot to do with something in his contract that if they call him up after a certain date they’re able to essentially keep him for an extra year. Which as you know-

Spreadapedia:

That super two stuff kind of. That comes into play right around this time of year. But you also got to keep in mind he has 168 plate appearances or so in AAA and you just look at recent guys like Corbin Carroll, he had 157 plate appearances before he got called up. Adley Rutschman 253, Wander Franco had 180, Vlad had 162 and Ronald Acuna had 344. So 168, he’s right there. Give him a week maybe. He’s coming, I can’t tell you what day, but he’s coming.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s personal. Okay, well good for him. At least someone here is around here. Basewinner, what do think?

Basewinner:

Bless might get a statement out without going Only Fans on it man. Jeez. Let the guy talk.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh man I can’t help it. Again, it was the eighties and my mom didn’t take prenatals. I’m on Dodgers double-

Basewinner:

So good lately too. And now today’s show is running off the rails already man, geez. This is a tough game for me talking about this game. You look at Weaver. So he allows a lot of hard contact power. If you take a look at his last four starts, and this is where it gets … you got to use your brain sometimes. You can model this stuff but sometimes you got to use your brain a little bit. And maybe when you use your brain you’re just like, I’m going to stay the hell away from this because he’s got 21 strikeouts in his last four games to just three, no, yeah, three walks. No, two walks. 21 strikeouts, two walks.

Now that’s pretty good for a major league pitcher so he is doing something right but he is getting hit pretty hard. You look at his last ISO power number, his last 150, 211, barrel rate 22%. So it’s just a matter of some of these games where you see conflicting numbers on this. Maybe it’s just a better option to go down the board to another game.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, for me I like Gonsolin and I love how he profiles against the Reds and I love how that lineup profiles against Weaver. But my numbers, I’m taking this Dodgers double result. I don’t mind the Dodgers on the run line. I saw that in the chat box as well. I think they both make sense. Dodgers double result minus 120. Wish I was getting a better number. I’m sure I’m probably missing that 7% math by just a little bit there but Dodgers double result for me, minus 120. I think Gonsolin outduels weaver in that matchup today.

Our next game on the docket: 955 956. We’ve got Carrasco and the Mets, Elder and the Braves. Minus 165 to Atlanta, plus 145 to the Mets. Total of nine and a half. Little bit of juice to the over at minus 115. Now this is my favorite price today on the card, Basewinner. I got the Braves double result today at plus 150. And look, I think we have all the advantage. the Mets lineup you can’t trust them any further than I can throw my next door neighbor. He’s a big man. Plus 150 to me seems too good Elder, I think Carrasco is done. I know he had a good start in his last game, but for me Carlos Carrasco is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He can’t trust that Mets offense. I believe the Braves bullpen is better. Checks all the boxes to me. I took the Braves double result at plus 150. Am I crazy here for backing Elder and the Braves?

Basewinner:

I think so. I put him in a parlay actually, I did a three teamer today. I went with Philly, the Yankees, and the Braves. And that’s pretty good. That pays 3.2 to one and talking about this game, you look at Elder’s Basewinner numbers, 17% better than average. I’m not a fan of Carrasco. Carrasco is 9% worse than average. So you get an edge starting pitching wise, I think the Braves bullpen is a little bit better. I think their offense is a lot better. I’ve got the Braves in this particular split first in baseball.

So you go, well okay well how about the power? How are these guys doing against ISO power? Well Carrasco is in the 25th percentile ISO allowed 0.174. Elder is in the 93rd percentile, 0.109. Barrel rate. Elder’s close to that top, in fact he is in the top quartile in the 77th percentile, 0.07 barrel rate and it’s better than Carrasco’s. Carrasco’s is below average at 0.088 barrel rate. So a lot of things going for the Braves and I like the play, Kyle, I think it’s a good play.

Kyle Purviance:

And I just love this number plus 150. So again, we just talked about the Dodgers number at minus 120, you essentially have identical lines here, the Braves in terms of being favored over the Mets, but I’m getting plus 150 on the double result and I’m seeing the same advantage in the bullpen. Jason, did I get this right? Braves double result plus 150?

Spreadapedia:

I’m on the fence on the Braves today. I think they’ve kind of underperformed lately all over. Bullpen, the offense. A guy we haven’t really talked about a lot is Michael Harris.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, struggling.

Spreadapedia:

Who I loved last year. Hit him at 85 to one for the rookie of the year. He came up, was almost a 2020 guy as a rookie. He has a sub 500 OPS now in June this year. And we were talking about Manoah maybe needing a trip to AAA to figure things out. I don’t know if this is a guy who also is going to need a trip to AAA. He actually never even went to AAA, he’s straight from AA, but he might need a stint in the minors to get things right. I’m actually leaning towards the Mets myself here. I haven’t bet it yet, but I think it’s a pretty good spot to fade Elder. Same thing, sort of my same feeling with betting on the Twins today. You’re getting a really good price on the Mets who are still a good team, versus the Braves who we know are a good team but not necessarily willing to lay that much against a another quality opponent.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, which is my thinking exactly. Either take the dog here and the plus money or I’m taking the double result here because I’m not trusting the Mets to score early. I’ve tried to back the Mets in the first five in full game. They don’t score runs early, they don’t score runs ever it feels like. The New York Mets absolutely drive me nuts trying to back them. So it’s a fade for me for them. They only have five more runs on the year, the Mets do, than do the Washington Nationals. This is the highest payroll in baseball. It’s the largest payroll discrepancy between two teams ever, over $300 million Steve Cohen has put together and you can’t outscore the Washington Nationals. Absolutely pathetic. Give me the Braves double result today at plus 150.

Next game on the card: 973 974. We’ve got Gibson and the Orioles. I can’t remember. Oh, Freddy Peralta pitching for the Brewers. Minus 128 small favorites here to the Brewers, plus 118 to the Orioles. Total of eight and a half. A little bit of juice to the under at minus 115. Jason, let’s go to you here. We got a good team in the Orioles with a plus symbol by it. I know where we’re going here. We’re dog hunting right?

Spreadapedia:

Do I even need to say it?

Kyle Purviance:

No, come on.

Spreadapedia:

Dog will hunt. We’re taking Baltimore here, getting dog price. It’s a travel play. It’s one of my favorite spots. The Brewers back home came back yesterday. See how long they were on the road for actually, but you know I like these spots.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. I knew this had you written all over it. Now look, I have Peralta profiling a tiny bit better, Basewinner, and I’m curious to see what your model thinks about this game. Can you back Kyle Gibson here? That’s the big concern. And the Brewers stink. They’re a strikeout waiting to happen. They’re wildly inconsistent. From my money they’re the worst first place team in all of baseball. I cannot stand the Milwaukee Brewers and everyone knows. In fact, I hate the entire state of Wisconsin. I hate every team from there. I just hate it all. Everything about Wisconsin drives me absolutely nuts. But this Brewers team really drives me nuts here. It’s really hard to pass up on that plus money next to the Orioles, but man, it’s tough to trust Kyle Gibson. What do your numbers say here? Who’s got the pitching advantage? Gibson or Peralta?

Basewinner:

Priced about right. I’ve got the game priced at minus 113. It’s in the market at minus 125. One thing I do want to let everybody know, I ran some simulations this morning and Milwaukee’s just bad. I would bet against their adjusted win total, I would bet against them … The Pirates were valued to win that division today when I ran the simulation. So I think that’s probably the most interesting thing regarding this game that I did all morning.

Burnes has been horrible. He’s like a league average pitcher by a couple different sets of metrics. So anyway, I digress a little bit, but I think that that’s probably a better bet than betting this game on its own. It’s just betting against the Brewers I don’t see anything compelling from bullpen, from starting pitching, or from offense. So other than that they’re great. Anyway, this game I would just pass on it. I’ve got the totals at 9.3, so maybe a total there, but you don’t know who the umpire’s going to be. It’s usually a stay away on these totals first game of the series for me. So that’s kind of my take on it. There’s better games.

Kyle Purviance:

I just wonder if Corbin Burnes living situation’s okay. It’s probably all these hoodlums and bad influences in the area. I’ve heard he’s got some shady characters in the area. You know what I mean?

Basewinner:

Could be.

Kyle Purviance:

Just hopefully he’s got his ADT set up, you know what I mean? Just hopefully he’s got the security set up. For me I see plus money next to the Orioles. I’m all over it. The most profitable team in baseball over the last year and a half. Sign me up for the Orioles plus money and that’s what we’re locking in for Jason on this game. Plus 118 to the Orioles fading the Brewers, which I always-

Spreadapedia:

Great price.

Kyle Purviance:

It is a great price. It is a great price on a better baseball team. Plain and simple. I just don’t know how else to discuss it.

Spreadapedia:

I agree with Basewinner. All my stuff before the season said the Brewers were trash and they’ve been playing well and it’s confusing me, but I tend to stick by my numbers because I’m usually stubborn. I think I’m right, but I don’t see the Brewers as a playoff team. I didn’t before the season. I still don’t.

Kyle Purviance:

And if they find a way to squeak in there, I don’t see them as a playoff team going places. But again, let’s not reverse jinx it too much because next thing you know we’re going to be talking about the Brewers in the World Series and I’ll be on suicide watch, you know what I mean?

Basewinner:

Oh, if they play the Diamondbacks Burnes can sleep at home. We know that for sure.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep, yep, yep. I wasn’t trying to give too much away. I was trying to be coy.

Basewinner:

I appreciate it. Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

I was trying to be coy with that one. 975 976. The next game on the docket. We’ve got Liberace and the Cardinals. We’ve got Dane Dunning and the Rangers. Minus 142 to the Rangers, plus 127 to the Cardinals. Total of nine and a half to pick them either way at minus 110. Luis Martinez, I like your style brother. Thank you for being in the chat box. We certainly appreciate all of you watching by the way. It’s humbling to see the show grow, all the activity in the chat box. As soon as we cover this game, be sure to get your questions in the chat box now. After this game we’ll hit the Q&A and try to go over as many questions as you all have and we’ve got some great ones.

We got some stuff to talk about with Jesus playing a couple positions. So lots of stuff in that chat box, but let’s go over this game, Basewinner. We’ve got Liberace and Dunning. The Rangers continue to impress. The Rangers continue to … they’re the most profitable team in baseball right now if you just look at money and run line totals. They’re number one, and I know this really good looking smart guy that was big on the Rangers to start the year. I don’t remember his name, but I heard-

Basewinner:

It’s time this team wins dimes.

Kyle Purviance:

But I know I’m going to jinx it so I’m not saying anything else. But what do you think here? Dunning has been … Yes, Kyle Junior had a senior prom and he did … The chat box sometimes just gets me. I love Abe Batel’s question in the chat box. But look, the Rangers just keep winning. Dane Dunning certainly has been a surprise this year in that rotation. He thought he might have been the weak link, which is a pretty decent rotation out there with Gray and of course deGrom who’s now pushed back to the 60 day disabled list for Jacob deGrom pushing his return back even further. The Ranger’s going to hang on here and hold onto this division? Are they going to get caught by the Astros? And more importantly, can they beat the National League worst St. Louis Cardinals today? What do you got, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Well, to answer your first question, I think Houston’s a pretty good idea in their division. I think they should be priced with an 85% probability, so minus 609 and they’re minus 150 in the market. I just think that’s good and really my numbers are improving on Texas, so I know I was super down on them because in my mind that team doesn’t win dimes, but in your mind they do. That’s so funny because you get these guys that, me included, in my mind, teams are winning dimes and so it’s hard to get out of that mode, but I’m disappointed with you too for not referring to the Liberatore product.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh yes. I always forget.

Basewinner:

That’s so off brand for you, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

I know, I’m sorry. I really keep forgetting and I tell myself. The last time it happened I was like, all right dude, remember it this time. But here’s what happened. My mom didn’t take prenatals. Sometimes I like the happy lettuce and I’ve damaged myself. When you spend the better part of the early 2000s running around the alleys of Tijuana paying $20 for things you should not be paying $20 for this is what happens. Your memory goes away when you get into your 40s.

Jason, look Rangers, they’ve been awesome. No doubt about it. The Rangers have been fantastic. Now we got deGrom going back, but this offense going back to the DL, but this offense has been fantastic. I’m holding onto a Rangers to win the AOS ticket at eight to one. I bet that before the year, we went over that and so I’m hoping it continues. And look, we’ve talked a lot about the Cardinals being better than this, being better than this, not being a terrible team. Well the Cardinals might just be what they are, which is a terrible team. What do you think here? Cardinals/Rangers?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I think the Rangers are sort of reaching this popularity status where people are starting to bet on them every day. Much like the Rays at the beginning of the season when they went on their win streak. So if you’re kind of thinking like, oh, I’m just going to wake up and bet the Rangers every day, the market’s already caught up for the most part.

All that said, I actually did add some Rangers pennant futures at nine to one this week. I think they’re legit. Bruce Bochy clearly has them playing well. I underestimated what adding him as a manager would do. Corey Seager’s playing really, really well and they don’t even have deGrom contributing and they’re doing this. That’s the thing is at this point, I think we all realized deGrom is never going to be a 200 plus ending a year pitcher again. And you don’t need him, you don’t even need him for April, you don’t need him for May. At this point, if he ramps up and he is ready to go the second half of the season, if he can give you innings in the playoffs and a rotation, he’s a difference maker, a very expensive difference maker.

But this is all of a sudden a pretty good team. It’s got some superstars, got some talent in the pipeline, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the playoffs. I bet on them today is what I’m saying. Like I said, I think the market’s catching up to them, but it’s still the Cardinals. Dane Dunning is very good.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, he’s been very good this year. Minus 142 we’re locking in for Jason and I like the WNBA play. Those of you who don’t know, I was the very first WNBA DFS show ever. I used to manually track every single game, log in every single stat. It has a small affinity in my heart. Fezzik likes the LA Sparks today over Seattle. Seattle was a dynasty, but now with no Brianna Stewart, no Natasha Howard, no Sue Bird. I think they still have Jewel Lloyd holding over there in Seattle. But La Sparks minus 155 makes sense today in the WNBA. But for purposes of today’s show, we’re locking in Rangers minus 142 for Jason for the Rangers.

I would love to be in the passenger seat next to Kyle when there is some road rage driving. Yeah, we have some fun with that, but more of the road rage happens when I’m in front of my house and I see people speeding up and down my road. I get very angry. I start yelling. One time a guy stopped to get tough and then his girlfriend said, “Honey, don’t get out of the car. You’re going to get beat up again.” And I was in my pajamas and he was going to get beat up again. But yeah, that would be a lot of fun. I love the studio, I love the chat box here and let’s get to our Q&A section of the show. Basewinner, did you have something to add there? It felt like you had some-

Basewinner:

Because you’re like, “Oh, I had this daily fantasy show for WNBA, the first one.” And all I’m thinking of, well, did they even have daily fantasy? You’re just doing a show just in case they did decide to do daily fantasy. You have a couple bong riffs and you’re like, oh, I’m going to do this daily fantasy show. Well, nobody has it, but I’ll just do it.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, that’s what happened. Honest to God, that is what happened. And then I couldn’t find any information. I wanted to find defense versus position or whatever. They didn’t have it. So every day I would go over all the games and there’s typically at most in the WNBA, there’s only, you can have six games total in a day, but usually I had … Yeah, Kevin is roasting me in the background too, so that’s fantastic. Thank you, Corbie, for that.

But I would go through every game log, calculate how many fantasy points they scored at each position, make a sheet. Then I started offering it to another website. It was a lot of work. I was up till 2:00, 3:00 in the morning doing that stuff with WNBA. So it’s funny to see it here in the chat box. Our first question from Ryan Jones. Twins money line or the Phillies team total? So Jason’s already taken the Twins money line we know at plus 150. The Phillies team total is sitting at five and I think there’s some weather issues. It’s not going to stop any games, but we do have some wind and some water issues and a team total of five. It is against Tyler Alexander and Detroit, but I would still prefer that plus money on the money line. What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

I’d go with Philly first five team total, two and a half. I think this team’s really good and I talked about how good their analytic department is and how much they’re spending on these guys. And I’m glad we got Jason in because you talk about one of Jason’s preseason favorites, Trea Turner, you talk about him having a night last night. Whoa, that whole team was good. I love the Phillies today, Kyle, I had Realmuto, I had Harper, and I had Turner all at total bases over one and a half and they all did it. So I think you got to sometimes … Maybe I’m just getting too emotional about this team because they won a lot of money for me yesterday and so I’m super, not just on the show, but personal prop bets and stuff like that. But I think they’re really good. I think this team, I don’t see this analytic department missing with this team, but I want to get Jason’s take on Trea Turner and why do you think he had such a bad start, Jason?

Spreadapedia:

Sometimes that’s baseball. You hit the ball it doesn’t go where you want it to. I don’t know. He seemed like he didn’t really have the answers either. He just keeps doing what he is doing and at this point it’s likely the MVP ship has sailed coming off the WBC where he was Captain America, he has kind of gone down a couple legs since then, but he’ll have a fine season. He didn’t stop being a good player. I think Kyle mentioned they didn’t like him that much in the Dodgers clubhouse or something. I know the Nationals were kind of happy to get rid of him, although some of that had to do with his unwillingness to get vaccinated it seemed at the time. But I don’t know, maybe he could just be a guy who’s disagreeable.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep, he’s just an disagreeable guy. From what I heard from a source within the organization, they did not like him. There was no way they were ever going to pay him that amount. A lot of that’s because of Ohtani and the other part of that is just his attitude. Wouldn’t want to do certain things. Is there anyone who played in that world baseball classic who’s playing well? That feels like it just kind of …

Spreadapedia:

Randy Arozarena.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay. Randy Arozarena. Is that it? It feels like it just destroyed everyone’s year.

Spreadapedia:

Ohtani.

Kyle Purviance:

Ohtani. Well yeah.

Spreadapedia:

Masataka Yoshida’s putting up rookie numbers comparable to-

Kyle Purviance:

Well those guys are built for it, but we’re soft Americans now.

Spreadapedia:

… Ichiro’s season.

Kyle Purviance:

We’re soft Americans.

Basewinner:

Maybe you’re referring to our USA pitching, but the USA pitching was awful. These guys like … Jason who were the USA pitchers? You know this better than I do, but I just remember-

Spreadapedia:

Merrill Kelly and Kyle Freeland and Adam Wainwright.

Basewinner:

I thought so. I thought Wainwright was on that team. Why? Oh my God. Wow.

Kyle Purviance:

It was a bad … That was just bad.

Spreadapedia:

I had a lot of fun with WBC. I made a lot of money. It was good. I miss it. I wish it was … Four years is probably reasonable actually.

Kyle Purviance:

I like when we get Corbie going and says Ohtani, “I’m talking about soft Americans. Anyone who is on that American team, they all play like crap because we’re soft. It’s too much work. We’re just a soft nation, nation of soft people.”

Basewinner:

We don’t have a better pitcher to bring out to the World Baseball Classic than Adam Wainwright? What are these guys doing? Like, oh, I’m not going to play for the USA team because their agents telling them not to play. That’s cruddy. That’s just cruddy.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Agreed. Our next question from Ryan Jones, home run prop of the day. I’ll make my answer really quick. I like how some of these lefties profile against Luke Weaver today. I’m going to take Freddie Freeman to hit a home run today. He’s four of 13 in 13 plate appearances, never hit a home run, but he is plus 330 today. I’ll take Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers in that very hitter friendly park in Cincinnati. I always like to look in Cincinnati of course find one of these hitters parks. Take a home run prop. I’ll take the plus 330 on Freddie Freeman. What do you got, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Yordan for the Yordong.

Kyle Purviance:

Ooh.

Spreadapedia:

That’s what I got.

Kyle Purviance:

Ooh Yordong. Now I’m having ideas about naming mine Yordong because that’s just fantastic. Next time he gets a home run prop for me, I’m going to name mine Yordong because I absolutely love that. What do you think, Basewinner? Home run prop for the day?

Basewinner:

Why don’t I go Trea Turner again. This guy, he had two yesterday. They were just bomb shots. I’ll go him, I’ll do Trea Turner today.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay. Some of the questions in the chat box, I just don’t know if we can get to those. Our next question from Darryl Turner, opinion on Rays under, Pirates under, Astros first five under, Guardians under, and Braves over. Okay, that’s like seven questions in one. Real quickly here. I think the Rays under makes a little bit of sense because we all like Varland a little bit today and if you’re taking that Twins moneyline that makes sense. Pirates under, no, I would not take the Pirates under. I think the over makes sense. Kaprielian’s bad and that bullpen’s historically bad. Astro’s first five under I guess makes sense with Gausman. Guardians under always makes sense, and Braves over against Carrasco, I guess that all makes sense, but that’s a lot to pack into one question. Quickly that’s how I would answer those. What do you got, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Braves under, that’s a 10 in Atlanta, right? Is that what you’re seeing?

Kyle Purviance:

I think maybe he meant the Braves team total over.

Basewinner:

Oh, Braves team total over.

Kyle Purviance:

I think, again, it’s not specific, but …

Basewinner:

Well I got 5.79 runs for the Braves team. But is he asking team totals? Is that what he’s asking?

Kyle Purviance:

I guess so. I think so, yeah.

Basewinner:

Team totals.

Kyle Purviance:

I think so.

Basewinner:

Yeah. Braves over. I’ll just tell him. I’ll say what I have for the team total. I got Rays 3.74, Braves 5.79, and I adjust this. This is one of the good things about getting the card from me is I adjust these team totals for the probability that they won’t hit in the ninth inning. So it’s a little bit different than, I guess, just projecting the whole game.

Kyle Purviance:

I do not mean to cut you off. Breaking news. I’m seeing in the chat box. I don’t think Aqua Aqua would mess with me. Elly De La Cruz has been called up to the major leagues.

Spreadapedia:

No, you’re fucking with me. It’s happening while we’re on air?

Kyle Purviance:

Yes.

Spreadapedia:

Elly just got called up?

Kyle Purviance:

That’s what I’m seeing. Elly De La Cruz to be called from AAA by the Reds. It’s time De La Cruz called up. Big day for baseball.

Spreadapedia:

Happening while we’re on air. I can’t believe it.

Kyle Purviance:

Very excited. I’ll be watching that game and it makes me … I still like the Dodgers. Oh, I should have … See I got to it too late. Mark says, “Kyle, don’t tell Jason since he doesn’t read the chat. Set him up on De La Cruz question” and I blew it. I blew it for everyone. Very excited.

Spreadapedia:

Elly, the Live merger. I can’t-

Kyle Purviance:

The Live merger.

Spreadapedia:

There’s too much going on today.

Kyle Purviance:

For you Office fans, doesn’t that feel like the Live is like Michael Scott Paper Company and they just were able to come back to Dunder Mifflin and fleece the PGA? Because you couldn’t even watch the LIV on TV. These guys were hemorrhaging money. There’s no way they were making a cent. The Saudi PIF fund was absolutely hemorrhaging money. They got bailed out here. I think it was a bad deal for PGA.

Spreadapedia:

They have infinite money. It’s not even like a …

Kyle Purviance:

A deal.

Spreadapedia:

They don’t even notice it’s gone.

Kyle Purviance:

Right. And they agreed. Of course the PGA tour, everyone’s against the Saudis and all this and all that and everyone’s on their high horse. But then Saudis say, hey, we’ll just continue to invest in the PGA tour.

Spreadapedia:

The PGA just gave the Saudis a toe hold into American sports, rolled out the red carpet for them. So now-

Kyle Purviance:

Yes they did.

Spreadapedia:

Now that they have this toe hold, they can go and buy an NBA team or an NFL team. There’s certainly an NFL owner out there who will take $10 billion from the Saudis to sell their team. And all the other owners will say, fine. Because it’s going to prop up the values of their team. So look for the Saudis to get more involved in US sports through this deal. This is going to send shock waves through the sports world.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Just what we need is the Saudis more involved in something else that we do because everything else they do goes so right here. What could possibly go wrong allowing a radically religious country that doesn’t mind dropping bombs on people to, of course, invest in our American sports? What could possibly go wrong in that situation? Did you have any thoughts on all those over/unders in that question, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

No, not particularly. Can you tell me them again? I’m sorry. Elly De La Cruz gets me-

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, let’s just move on. It’s too much.

Spreadapedia:

You have no idea how much stuff’s being thrown at me right now.

Kyle Purviance:

The question’s too much. We don’t have a ton of time. So let’s move on to the next one. Tyler Roderick asked, how do you like the over/under in this Pirates/A’s Game? Let me look at that total again because-

Spreadapedia:

Always over.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh yeah, look, when you’re involving the A’s the total is eight and a half, I like the over. I think the Pirates could do that themselves against Kaprielian and that bullpen. So yeah, like the over there, despite the fact that Mitch Keller does profile very well against this A’s lineup. Excuse me, you guys have any thoughts on that quickly? Over/under A’s/Pirates? Jason says always over. I get it. BDub, what is your model?

Basewinner:

I say no, don’t play it.

Kyle Purviance:

No, don’t play it.

Basewinner:

Either way. There’s better games today guys. Really A’s/Pirates? Okay.

Spreadapedia:

Exactly. Really?

Kyle Purviance:

And I’ll be tuned in intently. Actually, I’ll probably be watching on the ESPN Gamecast app on my phone because I have good luck doing that. Every fifth inning I get runs that way. Every fifth inning. I’m never changing it, so I’ll be watching Pirates/A’s. Pirates double result plus 110. Let’s go baby for you Ted Lasso fans. Of course Jason doesn’t even know what I’m talking about, so he doesn’t even know the magic of Coach Beard.

Spreadapedia:

I saw the first two seasons of Ted Lasso. I just gave up like 15 minutes into the third season.

Kyle Purviance:

Let’s go baby. I love it. I’ve been doing it around the house. I got toddlers saying it. It’s fantastic.

Spreadapedia:

What’s the deal with the ending? Is it real? Is it fake? Atlanta did the same thing six months ago and it was way better. Do you watch Atlanta, Kyle?

Kyle Purviance:

No, I’ve never seen Atlanta.

Spreadapedia:

Oh my God. Watch Atlanta. It is so much better. Everybody in the chat box. Everyone knows Atlanta’s better than … They’re not the same show, but Atlanta’s the best show on TV in the last, I don’t know how many years.

Basewinner:

[inaudible 00:53:00], Jason?

Spreadapedia:

Say what?

Basewinner:

Is that on Hulu, Peacock?

Spreadapedia:

Hulu. FX.

Basewinner:

Okay. FX.

Spreadapedia:

It’s my favorite show I’ve watched in the last several years.

Kyle Purviance:

Kevin says Netflix and it’s so good. We even get from behind the scenes. They all agree. Okay, I’ll have to check out Atlanta. Our next question from Demonte. Hey you guys, I tried a six picks today and what do you guys … So I’m assuming this is a parlay. Oh boy. He’s trying to kill us with these long questions we don’t have time for. Okay, Dodgers first five, Tampa Bay first five, Miami first five, Yankees first five, and Atlanta first five and Boston first five.

Most likely six pick parlays rarely do come through. I’m sure Fezzik will tell you about all that in the chat. And with your comment in there, Fezzik, 100% agree, it was just … you get it. But I 100% agree with what you’re talking about. In fact, it’s our labels on the bombs that they drop. But nonetheless, that’s for another show. It’s a lot of first fives. I could see Tampa Bay crapping in that apple pie. Certainly we like the Twins today. Of course, I could see Miami behind team Jesus. That’s an interesting one. We’ll get to that in the next question. What do you guys think? What are the shots here? Boston first five? I like Atlanta. I like the Yankees. Don’t mind Miami. I like the Dodgers, not the Angels. What do you think?

Basewinner:

I was going to say, who is it? The Dodgers or the Angels?

Kyle Purviance:

I think it’s the Dodgers.

Basewinner:

I don’t know. Philly, Miami. I like them. Like the Yankees, Dodgers no opinion on, Angels no opinion on. I guess is there another? Oh, Boston I like. So maybe the four teamer for me. Philly, Jesus, and Yankees and Boston.

Spreadapedia:

I have a question. Can I ask a question in the Q&A?

Kyle Purviance:

Of course.

Spreadapedia:

Are we now betting on the Reds because Elly De La Cruz is in the line up?

Kyle Purviance:

No, we’re not changing it. And look, there’s a lot of pressure on this kid. This is going to be … I’m not sure he comes out and just starts getting hits right away. I think an-

Spreadapedia:

Are we not betting on the first inning because Elly’s in it? He’s going to be batting on the first inning.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh God. Do they lead him off?

Spreadapedia:

The problem is it’s 10 and a half, so it’s going to be a huge lay for the first inning. I don’t want to do it, but the worst part is this game’s blacked out for me so I don’t even get to watch him because it’s against the Dodgers. So I pay for MLB TV and I can’t even watch it.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s ridiculous.

Spreadapedia:

Unbelievable.

Kyle Purviance:

It is unbelievable. But no, I’m still backing the Dodgers here. One guy. Does it make it exciting? Is it about time? Absolutely. If you have a future 25, 30 to one on Elly De La Cruz rookie of the year, you’re happy he’s called up now because he’s still got a shot. But I would honestly take him under hits today. I don’t think that he has a big debut. It’s a lot happening and it’s a big place.

Spreadapedia:

He’s going to hit a home run. Is there an Elly home run prop? If they put up an Elly home run prop, I’m on it. Assuming it’s not like three to one.

Kyle Purviance:

I doubt that’s out there. But you could get an interesting price on that one when it comes up later. My next question, we’ll have to get through this pretty quickly. Jesus is playing two different positions at the same time today in Miami. Does Kansas City have a snowballs chance in hell up plus 135? And it’s too bad we’re running out a time because I was talking to you guys before the show. In fact, I even called Basewinner yesterday.

Basewinner:

No, it’s not too bad. It’s great because that would’ve just … That was just awful.

Kyle Purviance:

But just to sum it up, for those of you in the chat box.

Spreadapedia:

It was kind of funny.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, thank you. It’s funny who have seen The Incredibles and Little Jack Jack, how he has powers but he doesn’t yet know how to control them. I was just going down this path of when did Jesus get his powers to turn water into wine? Does he sneeze and then Mary goes into his bedroom and there’s like 450 hot dog buns all over the room because they just appeared because he can’t control his powers. Or do you have a stumbling drunk baby because he’s turned his baby milk into wine and he is drinking it out of his sippy cup. Lots of things that could go horribly wrong. Does he turn his pacifier into a pot brownie because he can, on accident? He gets a runny nose, he blows his nose and next thing you know … Just a lot of ways it could go with baby Jesus here.

But no, I like the Marlins today. The Royals, up four-nothing yesterday. That team is terrible. Their bullpen is washed. They have no starting pitching to speak of. Who is starting? It’s Zach Greinke day, which I guess is the best they got. That’s what they have. I know some people like Brady Singer and that’s fine. But no, I like the Marlins today. And Mel’s in the chat box. Shout out to you for putting me on the Marlins yesterday. It was a great call plus 150. Another plus 150 today on the Braves. You guys, any thoughts on that?

Basewinner:

You’ve got to pick the Marlins if you-

Kyle Purviance:

Marlins/Royal, sorry.

Basewinner:

If you …

Kyle Purviance:

Or on Jesus getting drunk on accident at three years old, what do you think?

Basewinner:

I’m not going to touch it dude. You can go certain places with Jesus, but-

Kyle Purviance:

It’s on accident.

Basewinner:

The alcohol stuff is like, you can touch it, I can’t. No, not my brand. Anyway, what is my brand is giving you guys a probability on this game and I have it at minus 217. Luzardo’s been really good from a strikeout percentage standpoint, 28% over the last 150. He’s one of those guys that looks good with the strikeout walk model. Looked pretty good on that. But then his hard hit balls are a little bit dicey. He’s got a 17% barrel rate. And then Greinke’s just like this magician. So I wanted to put this Marlin’s team in my three teamer today that I put out on the card. I wanted to make it a four teamer and have it pay six to one but just Greinke’s foiled me so many times. So I passed. But the model says Miami guys.

Kyle Purviance:

What do you think, Jay? Any thoughts on this one?

Spreadapedia:

No, but I am going to make a little sprinkle on the Reds to win the NL Central right now. Just because such a bad division. Are they really that far out of it-

Kyle Purviance:

The kid is unbelievable.

Spreadapedia:

… with Elly, my man, Lacoca De La Cruz?

Kyle Purviance:

Lacoca. And listen, for those of you who don’t know who Elly De La Cruz is, the kids coming, he’s the only player in major league history at any level, triple A or major leagues, to hit three balls in the same game 116 miles an hour or more. He throws a hundred miles an hour across the diamond from shortstop. He is probably going to be the fastest player in the league right now. And my source inside the Dodgers works for the Dodgers says as soon as he comes up, the second he’s called up, he’s instantly the best shortstop in baseball. The kid’s really special but a ton of pressure. I say he goes hitless tonight.

Spreadapedia:

He’s also one of only 12 players to hit a ball over the center field wall at Estadio Quisqueya in the Dominican Republic. It’s double high fence. It’s like hitting a ball over the green monster except much harder to do.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s fantastic.

Spreadapedia:

Four eleven straightaway in center field.

Kyle Purviance:

Guys, we have a lot of great questions but we don’t have time to get to them all. I will answer Abe Batel, I believe my son did do me proud at his senior prom. He didn’t come home so I’m assuming he stayed the night at his girlfriend’s house, so I’m assuming that went well. Texas over 94 wins. I like Texas over, I’m on them to win the division. I was on them pre-season at eight to one. What do you guys think about that quickly? 94 wins for the Rangers now? Are we taking the over on that despite deGrom?

Basewinner:

It’s too high by the simulations. I’ve got Texas at 91 and a half and I kind of fudged a little bit thinking deGrom would get in there at some point. So it brought their win total up, but I think 94 is too high on that team.

Kyle Purviance:

And to quickly answer, Mo Harris says, “Kyle, do you love the Tigers moneyline?” I do not. I do not like Tyler Alexander. I do think the Phillies are probably the play today, even though Taiwan Walker’s not my favorite guy to back. He certainly profiles better than Tyler Alexander.

Guys, we appreciate you all so, so much for joining the chat. All the great questions. If we don’t get to your question just because you guys asked so many, you do such a great job and you’re such a big part of the show, we’ll do this again tomorrow. Of course, if I don’t get to your summary of your questions today, you feel like we’re not getting to them, let me know tomorrow in the chat box and we’ll be sure to get to them.

Let’s go over our best bets and get everyone out here on Elly De La Cruz Tuesday. Jason’s very excited. So Basewinner’s on the under eight in that Houston/Toronto game at minus 120. I’ve got three double results today. The Pirates, the Dodgers, and the Braves. Plus 150, minus 120, and plus 110. And Jason’s on Twins plus 150, Baltimore plus 118, Texas minus 142, and honorable mention Elly De La Cruz to hit a home run in his debut tonight against the Dodgers. Guys, we hope you all have a great Tuesday. Thank you all also so much for watching. We’ll be back tomorrow at noon Eastern 9:00 AM Pacific time. From myself, Basewinner, Spread and the entire crew, don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website, have a great day and good luck on all your future wagers.