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Kyle Purviance:

Folks, welcome in to BetUS TV. I’m Kyle Purviance. He’s BaseWinner. He’s Spreadapedia. We are your major league baseball Show team for Thursday, May 25th. And BaseWinner. Let’s start with you here. I must understand why the touch of your hand makes my pulse react. A somber day as the legend, the queen of rock and roll, Tina Turner, passed yesterday. And for some reason I instantly thought of you, and I thought of all the musical things we could do with Tina Turner. But a sad day, though. You may not have lost your MLB bets yesterday, but America lost a treasure, because we lost Tina Turner.

BaseWinner:

We Don’t Need Another Hero, though, Kyle. But she was good. What was the one? She did the Private Dancer, dancer for money.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah. She-

BaseWinner:

I think that ring rings really true to you.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it does. And if I remember correctly, I remember growing up it was she had her legs insured for a million dollars. So if anything ever happened to her legs… She had great legs, Tina Turner did.

BaseWinner:

Me, personally, What’s Love Got to do With It? I think love has a lot to do with it, guys. So I disagree with her on that.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Love has a lot to do with it. And you’re right, We Don’t Need Another Hero. And Jason, we get into it on the show here. You’re always right on these NRFIs. I’m always wrong. And I say I don’t care who’s wrong or right. I don’t really want to fight no more. Okay? How you doing today brother?

Spreadapedia:

Pretty good. How’s it going? Looks like I had a pretty bad day yesterday.

Kyle Purviance:

Hm. I went one and one. The universe kind of made some sense. So the Mariners got the double result. I was getting a little nervous, and then the real Ken Waldichuk, please, he stood up in the fourth inning. And the Mariners went around and banged him around a little bit, and we got that win. I want to remind you guys, we do get to the Q & A section later in the show, so if you have any questions, concerns… We already see questions in the chat box here. We will get to that in the Q & A. If you want to follow along with the odds that we use, betustv.com/odds. Great double results over there.

I couldn’t find anything. Full disclosure, this does not happen very often, I’ll usually find something. But I couldn’t pull the trigger on anything. When I look at it, I don’t see a good starting pitcher on the card today. I don’t see one good starting pitcher. Me, I know Corby loves Logan Gilbert. But I just think it’s a bunch of cans. This might be an over day or if our team’s just going to disappoint at the plate. But I just don’t see any good. Am I wrong here? Do you guys see a good pitcher on the board today, at all?

BaseWinner:

I think-

Spreadapedia:

A good pitcher?

BaseWinner:

Go ahead Jason.

Spreadapedia:

You go first, BaseWinner.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, what do you think? Good pitcher.

BaseWinner:

I think it, for me at least, and he’s been super disappointing so far this year, but Aaron Nola, I would classify as a perennial [inaudible 00:03:38].

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I-

BaseWinner:

But if you look at a strikeout percentage so far this year, it’s below league average. So that’s concerning. But I think that if I had to make a prediction of whether he’s going to be a 21% strikeout guy or a 28% strikeout guy, I would go 28. But what he showed so far is not impressive.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it’s hard to back Nola. Because so he’s got that Jekyll and Hyde in him. He can look unhittable. He can look like a SI young candidate one day, and then he can look like Ken Waldichuk the next day. What do you think, Spread? What do we got? You got a good pitcher on the card today? Because I don’t see one.

Spreadapedia:

I see some respectable names, maybe not anybody that you would be super excited about. But Blake Snell won a Cy Young, Kyle Hendrix coming back making his first start. Alek Manoah, he was a Cy Young contender last year.

Kyle Purviance:

Neh. Don’t pick manure. Manure.

Spreadapedia:

Lucas Giolito. He was once a pretty popular arm. A lot of these names, they’re not bad, they’re just not-

Kyle Purviance:

I would say their names are better than their performance. All of those guys. All of them. We’ll see what Kyle Hendrix does. I don’t hate Kyle Hendrix, but of course he’s making his debut on the season, so it’s hard to know what we’re going to get out of him. But I thought it was a tough day. So I’m curious to hear-

BaseWinner:

You make a good point, Kyle. It’s hard. There’s been a lot of pitchers. I’m going to do a search today on how many starting pitchers have started so far this season. And I would just blindly bet that there’s more starting pitchers this season than any other season in Major league history. Because you perennially get guys. Yeah, Julio Teheran is pitching today. I had to look and see what is that the same Julio Teheran that’s been pitching since 2011? This guy that he’s just a castoff, and I have him being-

Spreadapedia:

He’s pitching in AAA, though. He’s not pitching in the majors.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, he’s not starting majors, is he?

BaseWinner:

I have him pitching for the Brew crew today. It-

Spreadapedia:

I think he, yeah, he signed. Let me check. Is that true?

Kyle Purviance:

That’s right. They were undecided last night. Is Julio Teheran really starting for the Brewers tonight?

BaseWinner:

I had to look. I’m like, gosh, is this guy even being considered to pitch? That shows you how-

Kyle Purviance:

Yes, you’re right. You’re right. Well, so that means we got to bet the first inning in that game. I don’t even know if we have a price yet, but…

Yeah, yeah, yeah. There’s that. That’s a yes first inning. Yeah, it’s just really tough. The pitching has been bizarre. And I think you’re right, injuries seem up and just a weird starting pitching seems up. And for me today, I’m trying to look at who profiles the best. And I don’t even know who Scott Alexander is for the Giants, but he’s basically an opener. He’s an opener. He’s going to pitch one inning, and that’s the best profile. Other than that, maybe Logan Gilbert, Zach Eflin’s been okay this year.

But I think the pitching card just stinks, and it made it really difficult. I was about to bet the Padres, that was initially my play of the day on here was the Padres. And I can’t back Blake Snell, because Blake smells. He’s terrible. Blake Snell is no better than Ken Waldichuk this year. I swear, he’s not. He is absolutely terrible. So I couldn’t even back him against the Nationals. But nonetheless, we’re going to get into all those thoughts.

We certainly appreciate all you guys in the chat box and being here. Don’t forget to hit that like button. Hit the subscribe button. We appreciate all of that. Let’s go over our records here and get into it. One on one yesterday. We’re just hovering above mediocrity, the peaks and the valleys, but we’re about where we want to be. We’re not killing anyone’s bank account. We’ve made you a few bucks. You paid your cell phone bill. Right? We’ve paid your cell phone bill if you’re backing the show. And who won’t take a free cell phone bill every month? We like that, certainly.

Let’s go to our first game on the docket. It starts here in just 30 minutes. We’ve got 951, 952 Nicholas and the Cardinals, Luke Weaver and the Reds. -127 of the Cardinals, +117 to the Reds total of 9.5. A little bit of juice to the under here at -120. Spread, you got some plays in this game. So let’s start with you. And I think we all know where this is going. I got to go look at the prices here, to see if I want to do this live on the show. Because these, I’m starting to realize there’s a lot more runs scored in the first inning than even I realize. And I love how you take the yes side. I completely agree with it. What do you like here? Cardinals, Reds.

Spreadapedia:

Well, I’m glad. I’m glad you’re coming around. It’s one of those things I always tell people, sometimes the only way come around is to actually do it yourself. And eventually-

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. You got to make it hurt so good. It had to hurt so good.

Spreadapedia:

Eventually, you learn from experience. That’s often the most expensive way to learn, but you know.

Kyle Purviance:

Yes. Yes, it is.

Spreadapedia:

It’s an over day. MC Riddle says it’s an over day. I definitely agree. First inning, yes here. I think you’re getting a really good price right now. I BetUS -115, I’d bet that all day. I actually did bet 115. If you’re looking for some action on the first game of the day, that is the way to get your day started. And best part is you only have to wait about, what, 20, 30 minutes to get that. I’ve seen that number -135, -145. So -115 is a steal here.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, BetUS always has the better odds. That’s why we encourage you to head over to betustv.com/join. Hey, maybe you want a $50 free play and you want to fool around with that and kind of feel it out a little bit. Head over to betustv.com/fifty. Create your account, you get a $50 free play. BaseWinner, so Jason’s taken the yes runs first inning and it is interesting to note these two teams are in the top 10, in terms of run scored in the first inning.

The Cardinals are fourth. The Reds at home average a full run per game in the first inning, which I think is pretty interesting here. So the numbers would dictate this should be a little bit more juiced, as Jason was saying. What do you think here? Jason’s going, yes, runs first inning. I want to back the Cardinals here, but they’re just so untrustworthy. Look at them yesterday. What do you do with this game here? Start in about 20 minutes, Reds, Cardinals.

BaseWinner:

I like Jason’s play. It’s really good. Weaver, for me, has the worst BaseWinner rating on the card. He’s 140th out of 147 pitchers. His ISO power, wow, it’s terrible, 0.213, fourth percentile. And Mikolas, I’ve never been a huge fan on him. I have him 16% worse than an average pitcher. You look at his strikeout percentage, and it’s low. It’s 16.7%. You know how much you guys have been watching the show since the inception of it this year. How much I’d like this St. Louis offense.

So there’s no surprise there. The only thing for me, and it’s a purely maybe spiritual metaphysical type thing. I don’t like playing these 9-30 games and I don’t know, I think maybe I need to work on myself a little bit via meditation or something. Because I deliberately avoid playing him, and I’m seeing some value here. The one caveat is that there is a under umpire by my numbers, but I like Jason’s play. I think it’s the way to go. And he’s good on the pricing, as well.

Kyle Purviance:

I want to ask Jason about this, because this is important, and this game does start soon, it looks like for the Cardinals, no Paul Goldschmidt, no Nolan Arenado, and no Wilson Contreras. Does that change your mind in any way?

Spreadapedia:

Reflected-

Kyle Purviance:

Absolutely not. Okay.

Spreadapedia:

It’s reflected in price.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s reflected in price.

Spreadapedia:

It’s already [inaudible 00:11:04]-

Kyle Purviance:

Are you sure we shouldn’t get a better number?

Spreadapedia:

Does the market not know that? Is that news to the market? No.

Kyle Purviance:

Should we not get a better number with the-

Spreadapedia:

No. It’s reflected-

Kyle Purviance:

Don’t we-

Spreadapedia:

That’s the thing, is you’re thinking that you’re thinking too much.

Kyle Purviance:

I think too much. I get told that a lot, by the way. It is a damn amusement park in here.

Spreadapedia:

You’re overthinking a lot of these things.

Kyle Purviance:

Ooh, ooh, very tough. Okay, for this first game, this is interesting. I’m starting to think there might be some value on the Reds as dogs today. I think the Reds are live dogs today. Maybe since I’m not interested in anything, maybe I need to do a $4 parlay for $120,000 today. That’s what I need to do today.

Spreadapedia:

When should you not?

Kyle Purviance:

I should do that every day. What the hell? Because it’s going to happen once. It’s just going to hit, and then I’m just calling in sick the next day like, “Hey guys, no shows for the rest of the week. I’m in Barbados. I’m going to go stay at BaseWinner’s Airbnb in Barbados.” You know what I mean? Because I know he’s got that-

BaseWinner:

That actually might be a good idea. I know sometimes you just listen and take what comes to you. But I don’t know if I’d do Barbados, though. But Airbnbs have come to my mind.

Kyle Purviance:

I assure-

BaseWinner:

That’s my Villa Michael Harris in the Caribbean. You can go stay there.

Kyle Purviance:

See? Look at that. Rest assured, if I’m going anywhere like that… Because first of all, I don’t like airplanes. They scare the absolute crap out of me. And we can discuss this for a second, but if those seats really float, how come they’re not just finding these missing planes once they crash in the… How come there’s just not an ocean, a plate wide, just this massive island of floating seats?

I’ll tell you, because it’s all a bunch of nonsense. What they need to give me is a parachute, so I can jump the hell out of that plane if I want to. But of course, they don’t do that. It’s all a scam. I hate airplanes. But if I am going somewhere cool, I’m asking BaseWinner where to go first. Because you can just tell, you just know.

BaseWinner:

They just put it in the chat Costa Rica and I-

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah.

BaseWinner:

And I’m like totally. The Costa Rican people I’ve met through this show are just such wonderful, beautiful, upbeat, cool people. And that’s a good place. And I’ve been there, too. And it’s nice. It’s super nice.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I got friends there. Flash is there, and all the people we work… Yeah, maybe Costa Rica. Just, hey, just go there, hang out with some monkeys. Which I just love that idea. But I heard they’re vicious. Those monkeys will rip your face off.

BaseWinner:

I don’t think you’d get in a fight in a grocery store, though, there. I just don’t see it happening.

Kyle Purviance:

No, my Spanish isn’t good enough. I’m good enough to get by, but probably I don’t think I’d be able to win any argument. I would just keep asking where the bathroom is over and over again. [foreign language 00:13:34]? In a very angry voice and everyone would get… No one would understand what my point is. For the show, there’s our first flyover. So Kiev, we hear the sirens going, so hopefully they’re getting their bread from the market, because everyone’s in danger.

But for the purposes of this show, we’re locking in. Yes runs first inning Cardinals, Reds starting here in about 20 minutes, 15, 20 minutes at -115 for Jason. Let’s head to our next game. 953. 954. We got Freeland on the mound for the Rockies. Braxton Garrett on the mound for the Marlins. -119 to the Marlins, actually +109 to the Rockies, total sitting here at 11. A tiny bit of juice to that under at -115.

BaseWinner, let’s start with you. Look, I think there’s some value on the Rockies at home here at plus money. Braxton Garrett is not a world beater by any stretch. I actually have the slight advantage here to Freeland against the Marlins. This one was tough for me. This is another one where I kind of like the underdog. I’m starting to shape up my $4 for 120 grand. It’s starting to come together.

BaseWinner:

I got it. Well, so where does that come from? Your bullishness on Freeland? Is this [inaudible 00:14:38]?

Kyle Purviance:

It’s okay. It’s a 7-11, which is not the worst on the card. It’s not the best. And look, I know that Kyle Freeland can go out and get absolutely shelled, but he does… Let’s look at his last three starts. And let’s just look at his fantasy point numbers. Just for example, 31, 52, fantastic. And then, in his last start, negative nine.

So there’s a wide, wide, wide range of outcomes there, which is, yes, is a title of one of my only fan’s tapes. But Braxton Garrett, I don’t. And Braxton Garret’s… you know. If you look in contrast here, he’s been pretty good in his last couple of starts. But he’s got an 804 weighted OPS. So there’s a slight advantage here to Freeland. If I can get plus money betting against the Marlins on the road, should I at least look at it?

BaseWinner:

I don’t know. For me, I like the Marlins a little bit at -125. I really thought about playing the over here. I’ve got 12 and a half runs and over umpire, as well. You look at Freeland strikeout percent is 16.7%, and his ISO power is 0.172 23%. But I want to talk a little bit about the Colorado pitchers, because I think they get a raw deal on conventional stats, even advanced stats. Because there’s things that you can’t do in Colorado. So that strikeout percentage needs to be adjusted when they are pitching in Colorado.

I’m really close on having a nice robust set of contextual stats. It’s been kind of my project over the last week and a half. And I’m super close to being able to say, “Well, his contextual strikeout percentage…” And I can hardly wait for Colorado Rockies guys, Cincinnati guys. Because I think that’s a fairer number, especially for their pitchers, but for the batters, as well. So that kind of, unless something just jumps at me and I say, “Guy, I got to play this,” I think that it’s a tough for me to make any kind of call until I have those contextual numbers refined.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Again, another tough one with a real banger. It’s a real cracklin’ corker between these pitchers, as I have heard real cracklin’ coca, Jason, as Natalie would say. What do you think here? Kyle Freeland, Braxton Garrett, what do you got? Marlins, Rockies.

Spreadapedia:

Over 11. Yeah, I watched most of this game. I think I took a nap in the middle of some of it yesterday. But you know how Coors goes, it’s no runs, no runs, no runs, bunch of runs, flies over. Would expect more of the same today. Never could really go wrong betting a over at Coors. They got to work hard for that under, the runs come easy there. I think I like, what do you call it, first inning yes score. Another one of those.

I don’t like calling them your fees. I call them first inning yes. First inning yes score in this game. -150, I think that is a short price in this game, as well. Laid that earlier this week. I’ll lay it again. You look around, you’ll see some other books. We’ll probably have that priced a little bit higher. Today I think I want to bet the yes score at Coors, and then lay the -150.

Kyle Purviance:

I like that. Couple of comments in the chat box here. Steven nails it here. And I like a good Kyle bashing early in the morning. It’s just good to start your day. He says, “Kyle…” Basically saying shut up and let the experts talk. I respect that. That is certainly based. And Kevin Hillmer says, “I sent you my big winner on Twitter. Hit a 10 leg 522 to one last night.” Shut out to you, Kevin. Congratulations. I can’t wait to see that on Twitter when we’re doing the show. I’ll check that out.

BaseWinner:

Did you send that to him before it hit and he ignored it?

Kyle Purviance:

No, no, no. I guess he hit it, and he sent to me on Twitter.

BaseWinner:

Oh, he sent it to you afterwards.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

BaseWinner:

I thought he sent it to you before-

Kyle Purviance:

No.

BaseWinner:

… and you were like, “I’m not playing that.” That has no chance.

Kyle Purviance:

Could you imagine? That was like the day when I bought my ex-wife a lottery ticket, and I sat there for three days and was worried she was going to win. What a horrible feeling. But it was just a horrible feeling. This one’s tough. I will say, look, and I’m not saying that Kyle Freeland’s good. I’m not saying that the Rockies are good, they’re not.

But just for me in my brain, when I see a team like the Marlins favored on the road, I no matter what… It’s kind of like the Dodgers number the other day when I see the Dodgers at plus money, it’s hard for me not to take a stab at it. And that’s sort of where I’m at here. I didn’t do an official play on it, but that’s the way I was going to lean. Oh, Kevin says he was one game away from sweeping the 15 game slate. Only missed the Pirates, would’ve been a 60K winner. Well-

Spreadapedia:

That’s cool.

BaseWinner:

That’s a hell of a day. Wow.

Kyle Purviance:

That is a hell of a day.

Spreadapedia:

That’s fun. I don’t think I’ve ever gotten 14 of 1 on baseball. It’d probably be pretty crazy.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I don’t know if I’d be able to sleep. That one kind of hurts a little bit. For the purpose of this show, Jason’s got some plays here. We’re taking the over 11 at -105 and the yes runs first inning… or first inning yes. He doesn’t like to call it YRFI. First inning yes. At minus [inaudible 00:19:50].

Spreadapedia:

It says YRFI.

BaseWinner:

I’m going to drill down. I’m going to drill down into that a little bit more.

Kyle Purviance:

It says YRFI, yeah.

BaseWinner:

Is it like it’s too guttural? It sounds like you’re throwing up or something like that? But what do you-

Spreadapedia:

No, I just don’t know where the YRFI and NRFI… It kind of came from Twitter. I never called them that. And then, all of a sudden there became this whole subculture of NRFI betting. And they’re just so clueless and the process is so wrong. And people, they have a whole following. And I’ll just look at it, and I’ll be like, because I know the math behind it. And I’m like, I know you’re wrong. And all these people are like, “Yeah, you rule. You do.” And I’m like, all right. I don’t even care anymore. I don’t even bother. But it’s just the blind leading the blind.

Kyle Purviance:

I remember when I first heard the term, and it was like, “What do you think about a NRFI?” I’m like, “What in the fly is a NRFI? What are you talking about?” And then, it’s this first inning thing. The whole first inning thing for me, I just find it a little too instant gratification, which is of course, what our society is now. But nonetheless, for the show over 11 yes runs first inning.

BaseWinner:

Because Jason brings up a good point that there is a subculture of NRFI, and it is like instant gratification. But isn’t that counterintuitive? Don’t you want instant gratification on a yes? You want hit it. So when Jason said, “Well, it’s more positive to want the yes,” I’m all about that. And so I’m way more yes than no. Even though I did at one point in my life, bet the don’t pass on myself in craps. And so that’s a chapter in my life that I don’t want to revisit, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

And Fezic says in the chat box, “But the NRFI hot girls are way more fun than Spread.” And [inaudible 00:21:34]-

Spreadapedia:

That’s true. They get paid a lot more money to do the YRFI or the NRFI stuff, too, because they’re the pretty girls. But doesn’t mean they’re going to make you money.

Kyle Purviance:

I wish I was born a pretty girl.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. Don’t we all?

Kyle Purviance:

I have this cousin, and she’s not very good looking. And I told her, “Look, life’s going to be a lot like a man for you. You’re going to have to work. I don’t know what to tell you, but that’s how it’s going to be.” Let’s head to the next game on the docket, at 955, 956. We’ve got Blake Snell, he’s just terrible, and the Padres. You’ve got Jake Irvin and the Nationals -175 on the Padres +155 to the Nationals, total sitting at nine and a half.

A little bit of juice to the under here at -125. B-Dub, let’s start with you. Look, this was going to be my play of the day of the show. Because I was trying to find something, and I was trying to talk myself into, look, “Snell can do it against the Nationals. Right?” BaseWinner thinks The Nationals stink so bad. He said the A’s were better than him for three weeks. But now-

BaseWinner:

How was I about that? So far.

Kyle Purviance:

Corby had some fun at your expense yesterday on that. I don’t know if you got the show, but-

BaseWinner:

Good call on that, BaseWinner. Well, that’s a different story. It is. Boy, I could talk for half an hour about the game the other night with Funky Cold Medina pitching, but I won’t. I’ll talk about this game. Let’s see what the Padres have done so far. Well, they haven’t done anything much on offense. 96 weighted runs, created plus. And the pitching hasn’t been great, either 101 X-strip minus. This team’s got some problems. I’ve famously talked, or infamously talked, about doing the Martin Gale on the Padres over team total. And I would’ve lost my ass, had I done that. So I’m glad I never did.

This game, I’ve got priced a little bit of value, believe it or not, with the Nationals. I’ve got it at -154 for the Padres. And they’re in the market at -182. Snell has not been good. He’s been league average from a strikeout percentage, 23.3%. And the bullpen for the Padres, which you would consider, hey, this is a pretty good bullpen all the time. Even when they had, oh, Trevor Hoff. I love it when they had Trevor Hoffman come in and Ted Leitner would do the play by play. Were you down in San Diego when that was going on?

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah, absolutely.

BaseWinner:

And they play AC/DC Hells Bells and Leitner would be like, “Bells, bells, bells. Bells, bells.” Oh, I loved that. That was great. But they don’t have Hoffman or anything really resembling that so far by their numbers. If I play this, I would play the Nationals, maybe. Maybe as a dog +1.5, or something like that.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. I used to love going down, just to answer your question. I used to love going there. I remember the first game. Oh, I’m looking at the ticket that Kevin put out there. It’s really impressive. Amazing. What an amazing job.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I just saw it, too. And the only loss was a 3-2 on his losses.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, the Pirates’ rager.

Spreadapedia:

Pretty good day.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. So remember that first inning? Yes runs that you got on me during the show on that. And everyone’s all happy that Marcus Semien hit that home run. Well, now look what you did to our boy, Kevin, in the chat box. Huh? So that’s what you guys all get to [inaudible 00:24:52]-

Spreadapedia:

It’s all… I did it. I did it.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. This is your fault. Blame Jason, Kevin. This is Jason’s fault. But I used to love going down. The first game I went to, Khalil Greene hit a moonshot under the apartment building right there behind left field to win the game. It was a big party in downtown San Diego that night. We had a great time. Khalil Greene [inaudible 00:25:10].

BaseWinner:

There’s a blast from the past. Loved his hair.

Kyle Purviance:

Great hair.

BaseWinner:

Great hair, Khalil.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah. Very Spicoli. Khalil Greene was the Jeff Spicoli of Major League Baseball for a while. Jason, what do you think here? Padres, Nationals. You ended up putting a play on this. Am am I crazy for pulling off the Padres? Pulling out, if you will, however we want to do the innuendos here, pulling out of the Padres.

Spreadapedia:

You’re setting me out for me up for a pulling out joke. Do you want me to take it? I mean…

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, go ahead. Take it. Take it, and run with it.

Spreadapedia:

I mean why start now, Kyle? Why start now?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, exactly. Hey, I’m pretty damn good at it. Now, full disclosure, I got snipped last year. So I don’t have to worry about that anymore. I went ahead and did it.

BaseWinner:

Could it not be mentioned on the show? I mean, literally. But I mean from you, I’m not surprised, but do we really need to know that?

Kyle Purviance:

But I was an expert.

BaseWinner:

I’m pretty sure you-

Kyle Purviance:

I only made one kid for 20 years, so I was pretty good at pulling and praying. I’m just saying, nonetheless.

Spreadapedia:

I just want to say that the Padres have 22 wins. The Dodgers have 31 wins. The Oakland Athletics have 10 wins. And it’s getting very close. Not yet, but very close to me being able to say the Padres are closer in the standings to the Oakland A’s than the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Kyle Purviance:

Wow.

Spreadapedia:

If you’ve heard me, if you’ve followed me at all in the last couple years, I tend to rail on Padres’ fans a lot, because they always talk shit on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw, and they’ve never won anything. I’m just tired of it. I’m not even a Dodger fan. I just think the Padres fans should shut up and win something until they come after the Dodgers. So I enjoy seeing the Padres lose.

And I’m a little surprised they’re under .500 this late in the season. But it is what it is. And pitching, the pitching problems are affecting everybody. It’s league wide right now. Today I just bet the first inning and another first inning, yes -120 here. I think that’s a pretty good price. A little short. Hope Padres keep losing, so I can keep rubbing people’s noses in it on Twitter.

Kyle Purviance:

And look, Padres top 10, in terms of run scored in the first inning. The national’s not bad, top 15. So they’re a team that they’re averaging near 6/10 of a run every first inning. So I think that’s a decent play, sitting at -120. Let’s rock that in and we’ll get to that [inaudible 00:27:38]. In the Q & A. Let’s go ahead and get that one in the Q & A, and I’m more than happy to discuss it. Because there are some myths there. Everyone thinks it’s just this easy, breezy, beautiful Cover Girl type of thing. Au contraire, mon frère. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. It is not that simple.

But for purposes of the show, we are locking in the -120 yes runs first inning Padres, Nationals for Spreadapedia. Let’s get to our next game on the dock at 967, 968. We’ve got the Orioles, I believe it’s Kyle Gibson Day. And we’ve got Clarke Schmidt on the mound for the Yankees. -130 to the Yankees +120 to the Orioles, total sitting at nine. Pick them either way at -110. Jason, let’s start with you here. This is another one where I’m looking at this underdog going, I think we’re getting value on the dog again here.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I’m still pretty impressed with how Baltimore is playing. They’re only three games out of first place right now in the AL East, which this race is far from over. Every team’s basically in it. Toronto Blue Jays, it’s weird to see them 9.5 games back. And this race will tighten up. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Baltimore spend a couple days in first place. I think they’re better than the Yankees. I’m not a big fan of Clarke Schmidt. Yeah, wasn’t enough for me to pull the trigger on anything today, though.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, Clarke Schmidt has been one of these guys who I’ve just been wanting to fade. It’s a 977 weighted OPS, BaseWinner, for him today. When you compare that to 696 for Gibson, I think there’s an advantage there. Kevin says in the chat box last night, while this was going on, this huge 15 game, the only loss of the Pirates, he was bought the bar round of shots playing. All he does is win, win, win. And it seems like all the Orioles do is win, win, win. Am I crazy here? I think there’s value on the dog here again with the Orioles.

BaseWinner:

You know what? I’m totally opposed to you guys on this game. I like the Yankees. I’m high on Clarke Schmidt. And it’s not just because of the name is closely related to Clark Kent in my brain. So is it subconsciously that I think he’s Superman? Well, maybe, I don’t know. But I’m looking at his strikeout percentage, 28.7%. It’s an 86 percentile. I just don’t think a guy can have a strikeout percentage like that and be a poor pitcher. Sometimes it happens.

But when you look at his duff plus numbers, and this is measurement of all of his pitches, how they break speed differential, all of that good stuff on a granular level, he’s in the 89th percentile there. And then, you compare him to Kyle Gibson, and I just have not been very high on Kyle Gibson, either. 16 percentile pitching plus number, 28 percentile stuff plus, 23 percentile location plus. And that bears out on his strikeout percentage. His strikeout percentage is only 18.1. I like this Baltimore offense. I’ve talked about how exciting young men they are. And-

Kyle Purviance:

I love the fear.

BaseWinner:

You got to catch yourself every time.

Kyle Purviance:

I love the fear on your face. You see the fear on his face? I didn’t even say anything. I love it. I love it.

BaseWinner:

But this Yankee offense for me is second versus right-handed pitching. We talked about Aaron Judge a couple times on the show, about how he hits right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching. And he’s sure key cog in that machine there. So for me, I think we get a better pitcher, and we get a better offense. And I’m going to play it on the five inning line spread.

Do something that Corby does quite often. You lay a half run, so they have to be ahead after five. But you can buy down the juice. And in this case, you can get the Yankees at even money on that particular bet. I thought that was the best available bet on the card. And that’s my only play on the card that I sent out today. It’s a real tight card, guys. It’s a hard, difficult card today.

Kyle Purviance:

So the play is the Yankees team total in the first five? Is that correct?

BaseWinner:

Oh, is that? Okay. Well, yeah. Oh, I did put that play out on the show.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m just asking, I don’t want to get it wrong.

BaseWinner:

No, no, no, that’s fine. I put it out on my card first five minus a half. But I have projected 3.2 runs for the over total. So that’ll be the show play. I stand corrected, guys. Sorry.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay. Okay. Well, I was certainly not meaning to do that. I was just trying to make sure I’m not confused. I’m making sure I-

BaseWinner:

No, that’s all right. I confused myself. So thanks.

Kyle Purviance:

Making sure I don’t smell burnt toast. I’m not trying to Dick Clark everyone in here. We want to get it right. And for this one, yeah, I think I like the underdog here. We got Mark Holmes hungover in the chat box. Congratulations to you. That’s just we appreciate you being here hungover. And if you need some hangover tips, basically what you need to start doing… I mean everyone says it, it’s the hair of the dog.

Just keep drinking, just don’t stop. May as well just go through today and then fall asleep tonight at, like, 6:30 and hope it’s gone tomorrow. But for me, I’d lean the dog here. I’m on the Orioles. I don’t like Clarke Schmidt very much. I think he’s kind of a can. I know he pitched pretty well, in his last-

BaseWinner:

Why do you say that, though?

Kyle Purviance:

Well, just his numbers just haven’t profiled well against anybody. Now I know he pitched well in his last outing. He’s had a couple good starts. But for me, not very consistent, high weighted OPS, not great against lefties, a 931 OPS. Okay against right-handed pitching at 726. So I just don’t see him really getting righties or lefties out. So he’s just not my guy. And I just think there’s value on the Orioles. [inaudible 00:33:20]-

BaseWinner:

That’s based on his OPS?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, it’s I haven’t gone too far into his numbers. He’s just a guy I looked at and fade. And when I see the Orioles at plus money, it’s just, hey, the Orioles are the most profitable team in baseball to bet on. There’s no ifs, ands, and buts about that. So I’m leaning, I just think there’s dog value. Do I take it as official play? No. But oh, he was writing to Mark is not hungover. So I spoke out of line. He is not hungover, but Kevin’s hungover. He’s alleging Kevin’s hungover.

Which hopefully somebody’s hungover in a chat box. Hopefully somebody had a good time. But for purposes of the show, we’re locking in the Yankees team total over 2.5, -110 for B-Dub. And I don’t mind a little sprinkle on the Orioles underdog. It’s good for us to go a little head to head sometimes. And I don’t feel good enough about it to throw a bunch of money on it, but maybe I’ll… It’s going to be part of my big underdog parlay today. I think I’m doing a big underdog parlay today. I’m feeling it. I’m feeling it today.

Let’s head to the last game on the docket. 959, 960. You’ve got Carlos Carrasco, who, oh, my god, is he just terrible. Kevin Hendrix making his way back for the Cubs today. -112 to Hendrix and the Cubs +102 to the Mets, total of 7.5. Little bit of juice to the over at -120. B-Dub, let’s start with you here. Mets, Cubs. I thought about backing the Cubs here, if I’m being honest. But I just don’t know what we’re going to get out of Hendrix. Carrasco is really, really bad. Any thoughts here? Mets, Cubs.

BaseWinner:

Yeah, both, two bad pitchers by my ratings. I’ve got Carrasco 130th and Taillon is 136. Carrasco strike cap percentage in the 8th percentile, 15.3. So it’s bad pitching. You would instinctively think, “Well, I’ll play the over, then.” And that’s the way the model’s showing. But again, it’s Wrigley Field is just one of those things where I feel like even the best weathermen can’t project the weather there.

And it’s super important in playing totals at Wrigley Field. So if the best weathermen can’t predict the weather, then how can BaseWinner predict the weather? Because I don’t have a degree in meteorology. What do those guys do? They go get their PhD and stuff, go through school, and then they still can’t predict the weather. So okay, so this one for me is a no play, because of the whole Wrigley field weather thing.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I think all you have to practice at meteorology school is looking at the camera and knowing if the state’s north or south, so you can just point at the screen. Or you got to look really, really good in a miniskirt. That seems like the two things you need to do to be a meteorologist. Jason, you got a couple plays in this game. Carrasco, Hendrix, what do you think here? Mets, Cubs.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I got a couple plays. If you want a good one, I’m actually betting it live right now as we speak. One of the great things about doing gambling show, you got to do a gambling show, you got to make a live bet every once in a while. Texas A&M College baseball laying that -4.5 here late. I don’t think South Carolina’s trying. I got it on one of my screens here on the side, and I just get the sense that they’re trying to get off the field. They’re up five nothing in the eighth inning. I think I’m pretty happy laying 4.5 here live. Got it up to -127. I’ve been laying at a bunch of numbers.

I keep clicking as we’re we’re talking. Anyways, but this game, the Mets, I bet +107. I think it’s down to about 102. It’s nice to see a little bit of money coming in on the Mets today. I think the Mets just obviously the better team here. Pitching matchup be damned, Hendrick. Is it Hendrix or Hendrickson? I always get him mixed. I get him, Liam Hendrix, and Kyle Hendrix. I get them mixed up. I always say his name wrong. But give me Carlos Carrasco here today and the Mets. Like I said, I took +107, still good at +102, if you’re getting plus money. Go Mets. And Texas A&M. Go Texas A&M.

Kyle Purviance:

Go Mets, Texas A&M. Here we go. We’re just getting our routine flyover here. Fezic says, “I think whale capper does have a degree in meteorology.” And look, that would make sense, because that’s my boy, and he’s handsome. Whale capper is handsome. So that would make sense. Yeah.

Spreadapedia:

I’ve met him in person a couple times. We’ve taken pictures. Who has better hair.

Kyle Purviance:

He’s good looking. He’s a good-looking guy.

Spreadapedia:

It’s very close. I-

Kyle Purviance:

You’re good looking, too, Jason. Don’t get me wrong. So it’s just like, I don’t who I’m choosing. If I’m the ladies at the bar, I don’t know who I’m picking. But nonetheless.

Spreadapedia:

He’s got nice hair, too. I’ll give him that.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, yeah. You guys both have beautiful hair. There’s something about the face that he makes when he… You’re making this face as you’re telling everyone to live bet Texas A&M baseball. And it’s just like it almost looks like the dog crapping in the living room, and he knows he is not supposed to. I swear that’s what the face looks like when you’re saying it.

It absolutely cracks me up. Let me ask you this, Jason, on this game, does it concern you at all the Mets are by far the worst team in baseball in the first inning? They are absolutely putrid. They average 2/10 of a run per game in the first inning on the road. Point-one-zero. 0.1

Spreadapedia:

Doesn’t bother me, because I don’t even know. I don’t even know who averages the most runs and the least runs on the road in the first inning. Somebody told me about the Marlins recently being, like, 22 and 4, or something against the scoring in the first end. And I’m like, yeah, I have no idea. I don’t pay attention to that stuff. Because it doesn’t matter for today. It just doesn’t matter. If it’s all priced in already, I don’t care what happened yesterday.

BaseWinner:

Jason, what do you pay… And you don’t have to get too far into it, if you don’t want to reveal it. But what do you pay attention to? What are the important stats to look at, if any, on the first inning when you handicap it?

Spreadapedia:

So the price today, and what the total is, and who the pitchers are. And it all matters is what’s happening today, not… When people say, “Well, they didn’t score yesterday,” or whatever. It’s like, well, are the starting pitchers the same today? Why do I care? There’s two different pitchers. Obviously, lineups matter a little bit. But people overthink these a lot. It’s kind of like going to the baccarat table and betting banker or player. You just put the bet on one side, and that’s all you could do. It’s just really-

Kyle Purviance:

That’s funny. Because I have no idea what-

BaseWinner:

When’s the last time you played baccarat? Did you do that when you were in Mississippi?

Spreadapedia:

No, I never made it to Mississippi. My flight got delayed, and I ended up in Vegas, as one does.

BaseWinner:

Oh., okay.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just went to Vegas.

Spreadapedia:

To Vegas. But no, I don’t play table games very much anymore, because I don’t get anything out of it. I don’t play enough to get enough comps. And baccarat is fun. If I’m going to sit at a table, it’d probably be baccarat. But every once in a while, I’ll play craps. But table games don’t do anything for me anymore.

Kyle Purviance:

Once, as you can see, we’re just getting air raided right now. What’s the… There’s that damn card game. I wish I could remember what the name of it was. Manang or Mahjong.

Spreadapedia:

Mahjong.

Kyle Purviance:

Mahjong. That’s what it was. Oh, man. I sat down, had no idea what was going on, and dropped, like, two grand in, like, 35 minutes. I did not realize how fast you can lose money at Mahjong. Holy crap.

Spreadapedia:

Texas A&M, by the way, they’re up to -220 now. It’s, like, almost a whole dollar move since I mentioned it.

Kyle Purviance:

I love that. Very nice. And Kevin said you-

BaseWinner:

Got some players in the chat room, I think.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

BaseWinner:

I think there’s some heavy hitters there.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep. We have Kevin, who says he was taking shots of Rumple Minze last night. That is just heartburn central. Oh, my god. And he says that-

Spreadapedia:

Rumple Minze? Wow. Ooh.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, ooh. It’s hard to-

Spreadapedia:

How old is Kevin?

Kyle Purviance:

You’re going-

Spreadapedia:

How old is Kevin?

Kyle Purviance:

You’re going hard in the paint if you’re drinking Rumple Minze. Like hard, hard, hard in the paint.

Spreadapedia:

You better be in college, Kevin.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, you better be in college. And he says he’s just glad that he can now afford to unlock all of my OnlyFans videos. Which look, I don’t charge a lot. I’m a man of the people. You know what I mean? So I don’t charge a lot when we do that. Should we get to the Q & A? Shall we get to everyone’s questions? Today our first question, Dominic Jefferson says, “Spread, tailed you on Baltimore. Team total over yesterday. You like it again today at 3.5? Over 3.5.” Here at BetUS, we have it over 4 at -120. What do you think?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I do. I said I don’t like Clark Schmidt.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Clark Kent.

Spreadapedia:

That’s who I don’t like.

Kyle Purviance:

We don’t like Clark Kent.

BaseWinner:

Say Clark Kent. That’s my goal is to get one of these guys to say Clark Kent.

Kyle Purviance:

I’ll just Clark Kent him the rest of the year. It’s on. It’s Clark Kent. Now, which Clark can we get-

Spreadapedia:

I’ll take the Orioles score again. I think you’re better off if you like the Orioles today, you’re probably better off taking that over than you are betting them to win. Because it’s possible you can still kind of hit that team total, and the Yankees score more runs. That’s going to happen sometimes with the Yankees.

Kyle Purviance:

And to Fezic says his son is 12, and he is good at playing 21, and he cannot understand why adults won’t learn how to play. I have been kicked out of several gambling rooms by pit bosses because of these idiots at a blackjack table. I always insist on sitting on… I’m either the bookend or I’m the first better. And if someone is messing up, if someone’s hitting when that dealer’s showing a four, if someone hits, I yell at them. I’m demonstrative like, “You…cking idiot. You just took their bust card.”

I freak out. You are absolutely right. I do not know why adults are such grown men looking like morons on a blackjack table. “I don’t care. I’m just learning. I’m just here to have fun.” “Well, I’m not, asshole. Get the hell off the table.” That’s happened to me plenty of times. And the pit boss comes over, “Hey, you can’t yell at people, and you can’t tell them how to play.” Thoughts on this team total for the Orioles and thoughts on idiots at the blackjack table, BaseWinner.

BaseWinner:

It’s funny that you said that, because it brings up a funny story. Because I haven’t played blackjack for years, but I used to play quite a bit. And I always wondered if I was the only guy that would yell at a person for hitting when they should stand, or standing when they should hit. And I guess I’ve kind of matured since I’ve aged a little bit. And I guess it’s their right to do whatever they want. But when I was younger it sure pissed me off. As a matter of fact, I was playing cards with an Hispanic gentleman, couldn’t speak English, at one of the reservations out here, Fort McDowell.

And he was just doing weird stuff and I kept busting. I kept losing it. I would’ve been okay if I was winning. But I couldn’t speak English to him. So I kept on saying, “[foreign language 00:44:05]. Don’t hit. [foreign language 00:44:07].” And so then I just started getting pissed off, because I remember the No Mas fight with Roberto Duran. And I’m like, I kept calling him Roberto Duran. “Come on, Roberto Duran. [foreign language 00:44:17].” And so it’s funny that you say that, because I remember that that really fired me up. And I’ll never forget playing cards with Roberto Duran.

Kyle Purviance:

Manos De Piedra, congratulations. I actually had a kid who used to work for me. I was a contractor years ago down in San Diego, and we were putting a roof on, and I had this kid working for me. He was about 23. And he gives me a call one night after work. He’s like, “Can you come pick me up? I’m on the side of the 5 freeway right there by Carlsbad Village here in San Diego.”

And I said, “Why?” He’s like, “Yeah, my girlfriend got out of the car and started punching me in the face.” So then I started calling him No Mas Manos de Piedra. And it was just a lot of fun. Because his girlfriend beat him up on the side of the 5 freeway in San Diego.

BaseWinner:

You remember the Manos de Piedra part? I don’t remember that. What does that mean in English, Kyle?

Kyle Purviance:

Hands of Stone. Manos de Piedra.

BaseWinner:

Right. Yeah. Didn’t they do a movie about him? And I watched that.

Kyle Purviance:

Absolutely.

BaseWinner:

Yeah. I went to the theater to watch that, and I can’t remember that part. Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep. It’s very, very interesting. I think I agree with that Orioles team total. I don’t hate that, as well. Like I said, I’m not big on Clarke Schmidt for… Yeah, they’re just hammering with the planes. They’re getting a call after the show, by the way. I’m yelling at the lady today. I’m going to have a good talk.

BaseWinner:

Well, in all seriousness, it doesn’t sound as bad today as it has on past-

Kyle Purviance:

I tried muting it. I’m muting the hell out of my [inaudible 00:45:34].

BaseWinner:

I don’t know, just when you can hear them, it doesn’t sound as bad. So that’s good. That’s good to know.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay. That’s good. That’s very, very good. Our second question from Dominic Jefferson, a couple questions. BaseWinner, you have a parlay that you like today?

BaseWinner:

Wow. I don’t really. It’s just a… Yeah, I don’t. Sorry, man, I don’t. I don’t see two. I usually do two favorites to can I do maybe reverse it, do the underdog thing? Ah, I don’t know. No, this is such a cruddy card. It’s really a terrible card, guys. I mean-

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I’m going to be looking at some underdog parlays here. Orioles. I don’t know if I’ll go the Mets. I might swing the Cubs. That’s a little bit tough for me. But I think the Rockies are live dogs here. I think the A’s, crazy as that sounds, if I was going to bet the A’s today… If I was ever going to bet the A’s… It’s I think JP Sears is their best pitcher. I don’t know. I don’t know. But I think it’s JP Sears. So maybe the A’s today. What do you think, Jason?

Spreadapedia:

Every day you get a huge price on the AAAs. And every day it’s like, oh, try to convince yourself they’re going to win today. And just say no.

Kyle Purviance:

Say no?

Spreadapedia:

Say no to AAAs.

Kyle Purviance:

That reminds me of those commercials, the take a stand to be free to say no. Remember? It was a no drugs commercial back in the early ’90s. And then, it would be followed by the egg. This is your brain, and this is your brain on drugs. Any questions?

Spreadapedia:

This is your bankroll on betting the Oakland A’s.

Kyle Purviance:

This is your bankroll. This is your bankroll on a A’s. Any questions? It’s just an egg frying in a pan. Our next question comes from Mark. Thoughts on the Phillies Atlanta total? So that is sitting at 9.5. The over is +100. The under is at -120. So we’ve got Nola on the mound for the Phillies. And we’ve got… Who is it on there? Is it Dylan? Dylan Dodd.

And this guy looks terrible so far. So I know it’s used to the under, but maybe we see some runs here. Two good lineups. And we know Nola’s. That’s the thing, is Nola can be really good, or really, really bad. If you get bad Nola, you’re going to go way over this. What do you think, Jason?

Spreadapedia:

I almost had a play on this by kind of leading me over. I think Nola is probably going to get better as the season goes on, but 9.5 runs probably getting me on the over today. Probably convincing me to bet the over on just about every game today. I could see, like, one or two exceptions. But in general, today looks like a over day in the baseball.

Kyle Purviance:

I 100% agree. I think it’s just combined, overall. The pitching today is… Might be the worst I’ve seen all season. It’s just a horrible pitching card. What do you think here, BaseWinner, on this total for the Braves and the Phillies?

BaseWinner:

Yeah, this game, stay away. Dylan Dodd-

Kyle Purviance:

What do you have for Dylan Dodd? I’m curious to hear your numbers on Dylan Dodd, if any.

BaseWinner:

I don’t have much. It’s a projection. I’ve got him 9% worse than an average pitcher. But I think that what strikes out for me is like, is Dylan Dodd a real name? Did the guy go through life Dylan Dodd? I mean, Dodd Dylan. Can you reverse the name? I guess, could you have a first name named Dodd? Maybe in this day and age, you can. But yeah, that that’s kind of I was like, “Okay. Who is this guy? Why is this guy?” I guess maybe the Braves must be hurt. There must be some injuries in that rotation.

And then, Aaron Nola can just… Yeah, he’s been bad. 21% strikeout rate so far this year. But is that Aaron Nola? Well, they say the strikeout rate stabilizes, but I don’t know. I can’t do it. I can’t. Nola’s notoriously gotten better as the weather warms up. And so I’m going to pass on this. I wanted to get back, though. Because I think that if you want to go for a big underdog play, this is kind of how I would handle this today. I’d go with the JP Sears and the A’s +210. I’d go with Detroit, god, these are awful teams, +133.

Kyle Purviance:

Look at that. Let’s parlay them together. I swear to god, after the show, I’m parlaying tonight.

BaseWinner:

I’d go with Toronto, +153. So A’s, Detroit, Toronto.

Kyle Purviance:

Should I put, like, 100 bucks on this and try to win, like, a million? Just that’s a go?

BaseWinner:

It doesn’t pay that. It’s 17:1, though. And I don’t know. So talk about that. I know, gosh, Corby’s high on Gilbert. I don’t know if he’s as good as everybody thinks. Maybe. But then you’re going up against Giolito, who’s not great. And Zach Efron, who’s really pitched well this year. But is he going to be this good? And I would argue that I think his numbers will probably regress. So anyway, that’s my thought on the parlay. Sorry to get off the topic like that.

Kyle Purviance:

No, no, no. No, it’s great there. And is this true today? Go no runs first innings in St. Louis, Cincinnati?

Spreadapedia:

Double play.

Kyle Purviance:

See? The one time [inaudible 00:50:48].

Spreadapedia:

There were men on first and third with one out, bottom of the first. They got a double play. So you should have taken it, Kyle. You would’ve gotten one on me today.

Kyle Purviance:

Son of a bitch. It’s just the one time.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I’ve played myself.

Kyle Purviance:

No, if I would’ve done it, it would’ve been, like, 17 to 1 here in the first inning. Fezic says he’s disliking if we play one more big dog parlay. One more. If we do it one more time, that is it. It’s just fun. We realize that it’s not valuable. It’s over time, it’s probably not. But hey, if you need a little bit of excitement in your life, if don’t like the card today, we’re having a little bit of fun.

But I understand the premise behind the frustration. Our next question here is an interesting one from J.D. “Why is Bryce Elder not in the conversation for the Cy Young or as a top pitcher? He’s been pitching his butt off this season.” What do you think, Jason? Does he even have a number for Cy Youngs so far?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. He’s in the conversation. But if you want the numbers right now, McClanahan is in first in the Alabama.

Kyle Purviance:

Of course.

Spreadapedia:

Followed by, surprisingly, according to my numbers, which are also pretty much exactly the same as Tom Tango’s numbers, Joe Ryan and Nathan Eovaldi in the top three, which I would not expect. Garrett Cole’s fourth in the AL, Sonny Gray fifth, Framber Valdez sixth, and Eduardo Rodriguez seventh. In the AL, Mitch Keller and Justin Steele are tied for the lead right now.

Kyle Purviance:

Mitch Keller, huh? Wow.

Spreadapedia:

Mitch Keller, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s-

Spreadapedia:

With Zach Gallen slightly behind him. Bryce Elder slightly behind Zach Gallen. Alex Cobb slightly behind Bryce Elder. And Spencer Strider and Clayton Kershaw slightly behind both of them.

Kyle Purviance:

Sounds like some value on Strider, huh?

Spreadapedia:

Well, so-

BaseWinner:

I can’t figure that market out, at all. I mean-

Spreadapedia:

See, here’s the thing.

BaseWinner:

… the guy leads strikeout by a lot. Maybe it’s does he have a problem with his win loss?

Spreadapedia:

Don’t read too much into it. Because we’re literally talking about 30% of the season, which means there’s 70% of the season left. Do you value the first 30% of the season more than the last 70% of the season? No, of course not. There’s so much baseball left. I wouldn’t worry too much about who’s in first, and second, and third, and fifth, and any of these rankings.

Plus, you can always just put the stats together yourself and see who’s in it and who’s not. But yeah, Elder’s in it. Do I think he’s going to be there at the end? No, not really. But I also don’t think Justin Steele and Mitch Keller are going to be there, either. So-

Kyle Purviance:

Mitch Keller better not be. That’s it. I would die.

Spreadapedia:

It’s kind of like looking at the leaderboard in a golf tournament.

BaseWinner:

Wait a second, don’t sleep on Mitch Keller. He’s decent, man. I’ve won some money on him.

Spreadapedia:

He is. No, I agree.

Kyle Purviance:

Ugh.

Spreadapedia:

And here’s the thing, BaseWinner-

BaseWinner:

Well, he’s 43% above average from a strikeout percentage. From a walk percentage, he suppresses walks 30%. So baserunner ERA of 2.65, that’s tidy. Not-

Spreadapedia:

I know from experience with when BaseWinner says, “Don’t sleep on a guy for Cy Young,” that means go back and look at him again. Because he hit Robbie Ray at 100:1 in the middle of the season while I was sitting on my ass. Yeah, maybe. I don’t know. That’s good. That could win. And I [inaudible 00:54:05]-

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, okay. I apologize to Keller, man.

Spreadapedia:

… 100:1, so he’s right. Got to listen to BaseWinner here.

BaseWinner:

Other thing, and I would just if you guys are watchers of the show, I would almost listen to Jason more on the Cy Young, rookie of the year. Or definitely rookie of the year, because I don’t do it. But MVP stuff. Because he’s been doing it longer, and he’s very proficient at it.

Spreadapedia:

No, you’re right, BaseWinner. You’re right. 77 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings is very, very respectable, I think.

BaseWinner:

And the other thing that’s interesting to me, because I did some studies on it, and I put it into not an algorithm, but a classification model. And the wins are very important. So he’s 5-1 from a win standpoint.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, wins. They can push you over the edge of… you know. Got a lot of them.

BaseWinner:

That was the one thing that was consistent with the winners. I think I went back to 2010 and looked at the Cy Young winners. And the wins were way more important than I thought that they would be, because that was that the guy had the most wins, or it was either one or two. I think 85% of the time or something. I’m speaking off the top of my head, but that was a very important stat, the win-loss, which I don’t think is important. But the voters do, Jason.

Spreadapedia:

But my point is there’s a lot of season left for names to come off the pace and drop. And just because a pitcher’s doing well 30% of the way through the season, doesn’t mean it’s going to look like this at 50%, or 75%, or at the end of the season. It’s just like a golf tournament. The way the leaderboard looks on Thursday afternoon is not the way it looks on Sunday afternoon, more often than not. You just keep that in mind.

Kyle Purviance:

Sounds like some value on Strider to me. That’s all I heard. What I heard was value on Strider. That’s what I heard when you were listing those off. Interesting question. Our next question from Abe Patel, “How was the recovery process after getting snipped?” Now, first of all, here-

BaseWinner:

Ah.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, here’s what you always hear. “Oh, it’s so easy for guys. You just go in there, and you’re just kind of back to normal the next day. And it’s not a big deal.” Well, that’s a bunch of crap, number one. So it was a little traumatizing for me, number one. Because you’re sitting down in this chair, and they put this thing over you, and you think they’re going to lay you down or something. Oh, no. You just sit there. They take your schmekel and they clothespin it to your shirt, which is just humiliating.

Then for me, it was apparently learning day, where they had all these college people who were there to observe. So all of a sudden, all of a sudden, like, three or four younger college kids, my girlfriend’s in the room, they’re all just standing around. They’re telling me not to look down, because there’s blood everywhere. There’s chuckling happening. And then, afterwards I made a mistake. So I did make a mistake, and I would recommend not doing this.

I decided to be a tough guy and my girlfriend and I decided to get frisky on the first day that I got snipped, which you’re not supposed to do. But let me just tell you that it felt like someone was… It was a dull… You ever know if you accidentally sit on your manhood down there and it hurts your stomach? It felt like that for a week. I slept with a big ice pack over the jewels for a week. So it’s not as fun. I mean, was I okay? Yeah. But is it as fun and is it worth it? Absolutely.

Little kids are the worst. Nothing worse in this world than little kids. That’s just a fact. But was it just all roses and super easy? No, it was not. So I don’t care who tells you that it is, it’s absolutely not. And they have it’s kind of a myth that it’s super cool and super easy. No. It feels like you’re sitting on your nuts for a week. That’s what it feels like. Plain and simple.

BaseWinner:

Good, and have a great day, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, have a great day. And our next question…

Spreadapedia:

I do hate sitting on my nuts.

Kyle Purviance:

It hurts.

Spreadapedia:

That’s one thing I don’t like.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s what it felt like is I was sitting on my nuts for a week. That’s what it felt like. Our last question here from Mark Holmes, and we’re going to off Fezic here. “Round-robin with the yes first inning scores?” Question mark. Jason, that’s your category.

Spreadapedia:

Not my favorite today. I didn’t do it. I didn’t do it, myself. Prices where I could round-robin or can round-robin aren’t necessarily as compelling to me as they are just playing them straight. Plus, if you did round-robin them already, you’re already 0-1. So if you want to-

Kyle Purviance:

Mm-hmm. You’re stressing.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. Do I want to go up on another round-robin? No.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m so mad that I didn’t just do it. I normally just say screw it. And I should have just said screw it and do it.

Spreadapedia:

Well, I was telling Kyle right before the show I think yesterday, someone asked, or someone mentioned, or asked about college baseball and asked if I ever bet college baseball. And I was pretty adamant that I very rarely bet college baseball. So obviously, today I went out and fired on a bunch of college baseball games. Because I’m Mr. Consistency over here. So I’m a little preoccupied with some college baseball this morning and afternoon.

Kyle Purviance:

I don’t even know what that comment means in the chat box. What do you think, you got your round-robin your YRFIs? BaseWinner, that’s not our category, is it?

BaseWinner:

No. But we have to take people into the day with other than a ball-clipping story. I’m going to be thinking about that all day.

Kyle Purviance:

I just answered a question. [inaudible 00:59:23].

BaseWinner:

And my wife plugs you as a host. She’s like, “Oh, Kyle’s so good. He keeps the show going. I love him.” I will not show her this clip ever.

Kyle Purviance:

So you think-

BaseWinner:

In fact, I think it should be edited out, but that’s my… Anyway-

Kyle Purviance:

I can only answer the questions that come to me in the chat box here. You know that I am just a man of the people.

BaseWinner:

That’s true.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m Ron Burgundy. I just read the prompter. I just read the prompter.

BaseWinner:

Well, but we haven’t had a good… And I’m disappointed with the chat box. We got to get Kyle on the Ron Burgundy thing. But it hasn’t happened.

Kyle Purviance:

I think they got me today. They got me with that one. No one was happy with that. They got me today.

BaseWinner:

Yeah, I’m not educated enough on the first run inning bets, yet. To me, I think you have to model it a little bit differently than modeling the game. I think that there’s some things to be done there. Absolutely. But it’s a project guys, for me. No, don’t do it. There’s enough there. There’s enough to do from a betting standpoint. Maybe play some college baseball today. That’s good talk. Jason, why don’t you give out a couple college baseball plays later for the day?

Spreadapedia:

LSU. LSU up to -170 is the one I got. That’s my favorite play today.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, boy. We might be getting trolled. It’s rare. It’s nice when we get the trolls in the chat box using slurs in there. Nice job. Let’s just be 2% less worse tomorrow on that one. I’m glad he got removed. Okay, there is one question we want to get to here. MLB Friday overnights go up at the site already. Any thoughts to give out a look ahead? Bet these Dumbo openers that we know have mistakes in them. And I haven’t looked at the opening lines, but that is a really good point to make.

If you’re worried about things getting baked into the price, or you’re trying to find an advantage, adjusted line value is something that’s very, very, very important in sports betting world. Especially start getting the NFL season. But when you’re getting overnights early, and there’s a lot, they’re not taking in a lot of factors, that is certainly something to look at. I haven’t had a chance to look at the Friday numbers, but that’s a smart way to go.

Fezic’s absolutely right. And if you’re trying to look at an advantage, get adjusted line value when that opportunity presents itself. Because it can be tough sometimes to get early numbers on baseball without just the basic generic numbers. But if you’re starting to get things a little bit more advanced, and you can get some good adjusted line value without the books having a chance to take certain factors in, it’s a smart way to go. Right, B-Dub?

BaseWinner:

Yeah. I used to send the card out the day before. And regrettably, I’m not doing it this year. It’s only because of an automation issue. And I fully expect next year you could look ahead, at least at my line, on it two days ahead. But quite honestly, it’s a big programming job.

And it’s something that I anticipate being done with maybe by the end of the year, but probably not, but definitely for next year. So you can say, “Okay, well, what is the BaseWinner line on tomorrow’s games?” That’s definitely something a lot of good points were made on that. Getting ahead of the line is super important for long-term success.

Kyle Purviance:

Absolutely. Any thoughts on that spread, before we get to the best bets and get everyone out of here?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. I’m barely done betting today. I still got a whole bunch of stuff to go through today with MLB, and Triple A, and some college, and props, and golf. And there’s European tour golf overnight and LIV starts tomorrow. And there’s so much stuff that I’ll do overnights tonight. But I’m 8, 10 hours away from even starting to think about tomorrow. I’m barely… I got a list of things I got to do today.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. That’s how my sister is, very on point, very structured, my little sister. And she wants me to plan when we’re going to eat Thanksgiving dinner. And I’m like, God, that is… I can’t even think about planning that far ahead. She’s got my birthday planned for two years ahead, I swear. Great show today. Thank you for everyone in the chat box for all your questions. If we didn’t get your questions…

Because you guys do such a great job driving the show and being a part of the show, we certainly appreciate you guys very much. Let’s go over our best bets and get everyone out of here on a Thursday. Can see I got nothing today. I will say this, my best bet today, the seventh horse and the seventh race at Churchill Downs today. Donnie, I really like that one. It’s going off at 7:2 right now, and I promise you that number will close closer to her being a favorite. It’s a three-year filly. Love that horse today. I think she gets it done at Churchill Downs.

BaseWinner has got the Yankees team total over 2.5 in the first five innings at -110. We got a lot of YRFIs here from our boy, Jason. So St. Louis, Cincinnati, dead in the water. We know that, and I should have bet that one. I’m very upset about that. We’ve got the over 11 from Miami in Colorado. We got a yes runs first inning in that game, as well. Yes runs first inning Padres, Nats. Yes runs first inning, Mets, Cubs. And the Mets on the money line at +102.

Again, thank you all so, so much for joining the show. Thanks for being so fun in the chat box. We have a great time with you guys as we get to know you more and more throughout the year. It’s kind of like a family. It becomes like a family around here, and we talk about a ton of crazy things. I certainly appreciate it. I know everyone else does.

Thank you to the crew behind the scenes letting this thing go where it goes, and helping us with the questions, and fighting everything else. Without the people behind the scenes, we would be absolutely nothing. Thank you to you guys, as well. Have a great day today. Enjoy the day baseball.  Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. And of course, good luck on all your future wagers.

 

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