MLB Picks Today [September 11th] MLB Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds

Basewinner:

Yeah, when they bombed Pearl Harbor, it’s right up there. I don’t know. When I was 30 and they bombed Pearl Harbor, that really took a lot out of me.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, yeah. That took a lot out of you. Of course, back when Lincoln was assassinated, I know that you were a young chap.

Basewinner:

That was a tough day too, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s a tough day. Yeah, yeah. Your mom stopped churning the butter like, “What the hell happened in here?” No, it really did change the world, right? Our way of living in the United States 100% changed after that day, and if you remember, it was probably the last time where I remember the country was united, right? There wasn’t all this divisiveness and this hate, it was the one time you felt it for at least a month. We had this good era of good feelings for a month where we were super united and we started talking, “Why does it take horrible catastrophes to bring people together?” I know this isn’t baseball-related, but it is 9/11 and it would be weird not to at least address it a little bit. Why does it take something like that to make people care about each other? It’s very bizarre to me.

Basewinner:

Yeah. No, I think it causes us to really put things in perspective. I know it was shocking when you go through it. You feel so comfortable and so safe, and then something like that happens. It really causes you to think and understand the fragility of life. I think that that’s what happened. People were like, “Wow, this isn’t good. How can we unite together?” You see the 9/11 and that has an impact in your brain, when you see the number. I think that this is a good day to remember those who died and went through a tough time, but also to be thankful and grateful for everything that the United States represents and, really, everything that life represents in general. Sorry to get super philosophical.

Kyle Purviance:

No, you’re 100% right. You’re 100% right, I think that’s appropriate today. Corbie, you were a young guy, right? You were real young when it happened. Do you have any memories of any of that?

Corbie Craig:

No, I was four, so no, I got nothing. I remember hearing about it in school, that’s about it.

Kyle Purviance:

Just the way the world changed. Luckily, some things have changed for the better, the advent of legal gambling in the internet and everything, so we get to sit here and talk baseball. First of all, thank you to everyone watching. We know it’s football season, long day on Sunday, we’ve got Monday Night Football, we have a fantastic Monday Night Football game tonight between the Bills and the Jets. Josh Allen, Aaron Rogers, all that stuff. You guys sticking with us and talking baseball, we know it can sometimes get put to the back burner, so we appreciate all you guys. Please, hit that like button, hit the subscribe button if you haven’t done so already, share the show out with your friends, we certainly appreciate that. Of course, if there’s a game or a question or a prop or anything, your love life, anything you got, put that in the chat box and, at the end of the show, we will get to that in the Q and A.

I don’t even want to look at the records, the spiral I am on. I need a good week here, Friday absolutely neutered me. Horrible day on Friday. It started out okay and then everything absolutely collapsed, so we have got to catch the… I’m going to have to do some eight-leg parlays, is my official play of the day to catch Basewinner here. We’re going to have a good week this week, I can feel it. Let’s focus on some baseball. It’s a weird time, September baseball. 927, 928, we got Dakota Hudson and the Cardinals at plus 145, Dean Kremer and the Orioles at minus 160, total of nine and a half with some juice to the under at minus 115. B-Dub, let’s start with you here. I went ahead and took the Orioles double result to even money here, it’s an 852 weighted OPS for Hudson versus this Orioles lineup.

Kremer hasn’t been pitching deep into games. He’s been, lately, four and two thirds, maybe five and a third here, but he’s not giving up a lot of hits, not giving up a lot of runs. I think the Orioles will score early in this one and hold onto it late with the superior bullpen. The run line in the first five, for those of you doing the math, is at minus 115, so it’s not the greatest split right there, but I’ll take the even money on the Orioles today. I think they just profile better. It’s a righty on the mount for the… If there’s a lefty on the Orioles, I’m not messing with the Cardinals and lefties anymore, Basewinner, but I like the Orioles in this spot, what do you think?

Basewinner:

The Cardinals are an interesting team. You know how high I was on them at the start of the year, and that’s something I admittedly whiffed on from a results standpoint, but I think if you look at some of the underlying numbers for the Cardinals, especially the hitting numbers, they’re not as bad if you look at their record. I think we got to consider that when we’re looking at the Cardinals in general for the rest of the season, thinking, “Okay, this team is down towards the bottom of the standings, but from a hitting standpoint…” Particularly against left-handed hitting, I think I have them fourth right now. Against right-handed pitching… Sorry, left-handed pitching, they’re number four. Against right-handed pitching, they’re number 16, so not as good. I actually have this game priced… The model really likes your play, Kyle, I’ve got it at minus 234 and it’s minus 160 in the market.

I think the thing that concerns me, and I can go… Let me just really quickly go over Hudson’s strikeout percentage. It’s 14%, that’s awful. Pitching plus is 12%, that’s awful. BBK is 0.46, which is worse than league average BBK, that’s strikeout walks divided by strikeout is 0.38, so that’s not very good either. My problem with Kremer is that he’s not a super elite pitcher. You look at a pitching plus number of 58%, you look at a strikeout percentage of 21.5, right around league average for starting pitchers, and it doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence. The other thing is I think he’s still number one, and you guys might want to double-check this while I’m talking, as far as return on investment this year, and I think that that’s going to regress a little bit. I don’t see this guy as a go-to guy that I want to bet on, but if I had to make the play, I think that’s how I would go. I think I’d pick five, nine, half full time. I’d do it, Kyle. I hope you win your bet, yep.

Kyle Purviance:

I love how smooth that just comes out right there. It’s just that. For me, it’s the Spencer Strider one always. Going to put him in a parlay, always. That’s always… 99 on the gun is always flying through my head. Corbie, what do you think here? Break this down. Hudson, I got an advantage here, right? Kremer’s just a little bit better, at least, than Dakota Hudson.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. Hudson, two primary pitches, 91.5 and 91.1. Basically no velocity drop-off, which is just never good versus any offense with power, Baltimore obviously has power, so I think they’ll get after him. The issue is Dean Kremer’s throwing basically only fastballs. Is the fastball… I think it was 40% of the time. Is the fastball good enough to get past the St. Louis offense who admittedly has batters, they just haven’t been able to do much this year? I don’t know. St. Louis has looked good as of late the last three months, they’re 12th in the league hitting the fastball. If all Kremer can do is throw a fastball, usually when teams with high upside that don’t do good, are playing bad, it’s usually due to the breaking ball. St. Louis, very similar spot. They just can’t hit a slider right now, but from a fastball perspective, they look decent. I think there’s going to be runs.

Does Baltimore score more runs on Dakota Hudson? Probably. I think it would be sweating at first five, but if they get it done through five, I can’t imagine the Cardinals can come back and win through nine, so a good price, overall.

Kyle Purviance:

I always, always sweat the first five. It doesn’t matter. I lost the first five with the Braves earlier this year where they scored eight damn runs, so I’m always sweating the first five, but usually, if I can get that first one across, I’m happy. It happens a lot, where you just don’t get any damn runs in the first five innings. Hell, if you’re the Yankees, you go hit with four, 11, what? 10 innings and still win a baseball game? I don’t know. Crazy, crazy stuff over the weekend. For purposes of this show, I’m going to back The Cream Man, I’m going to back the Orioles here. I’m going to take the double result at even money for Baltimore today.

Okay, I’m sorry, I was reading the question here. We do have a question that we can, I suppose, answer here. Erika asked, “What do you think about an Orioles first five and a Cubs first five parley at plus 150?” I do like the Orioles in the first five here and we’re going to talk about that Cubs game in a little bit, but right now, if you’re getting a good number on that, I think you can go ahead and pull the trigger, because we do like the Cubs in the first five, and we’ll get to that game here shortly. Let’s get to… That’s right, and I didn’t even do an OnlyFans joke with Dean Kremer, so there you go, The Cream Man. I’m being responsible today. 921, 922, Glasnow in the Rays, Sonny Gray in the Twins. Minus 118 to the Rays, plus 108 to the Twins. Total of seven and a half flat across the board at minus 110. All right, Corbie, we’ve got your boy Glasnow on the mound. Tell me why they’re going to beat the Twins today.

Corbie Craig:

Listen, I’ve said it every time this man’s pitched, but today might be the day. I think we might see-

Kyle Purviance:

It’s a no-hitter day? Okay, okay.

Corbie Craig:

This Twins offense is swinging and missing at everything, and if you go click Ty Glasnow’s Baseball Savant, the only thing that you see is a graph of red lines saying that he is in the great percentile of every single pitch, basically. The only one that he he’s not is barrel percentage, which he’s in the first percentile and that’s where you would want to be, you don’t want to be in the 99th percentile of that. Yeah, Glasnow stuff, we don’t have to talk about it. We’re well aware that he has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, a 14 mile per hour [inaudible 00:11:19] drop at this point and literally makes people completely guess when he is on the mound. He’s finally getting some more reps, it seems like he gets stuck at times. We saw him the other day, he gave up one hit and then he struggled to find the zone again.

I think this is all just a repetition thing. You have to remember, he just had surgery and came back two and a half months ago at this point. His curve-ball right now has a 71% strikeout rate, which is just astronomical. His force [inaudible 00:11:48] needs to clean it up a little bit, it has in years past, so I imagine it will again, and then he will be the same type of Glasnow that we’ve seen for quite some time. This Twins offense strikes out like crazy and don’t really love their lineup, so I would lean towards the Rays. Obviously, like Glasnow. I don’t know what his strikeout prop is, but I assume probably eight and a half, and I would not bet an eight and a half, but if it’s, for some reason, way shorter, then I would take that. Let’s see. Strikeouts. Of course, it’s loading. Yeah, seven and a half, juiced up to eight and a half. I wouldn’t play an eight and a half, but if you could find a seven and a half for a good price, then by all means.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Basewinner, this is by far the lowest combined weighted OPS in the card, 590 for Glasnow against the Twins, 602 for Sonny Gray. Tampa Bay offense can sometimes disappear on you, same with the Twins. We’re in the era of trust issues now. We’ve seen these teams for, what? 140 games? Every one of them has burned us somehow, some way. Look, two playoff teams, two good pitchers, low total. What do you got in this one?

Basewinner:

This is going to be the first leg of the Basewinner parlay. Tampa Bay, first five and I’m playing it with Milwaukee, first five. Your favorite team, Kyle. It’s really a good return. I think it’s plus 224 prior to the show, that’s where we’re going to put it out on the show, at plus 224. I think it’s a good parlay. Corbie mentioned a couple of things with his analysis. Yeah, the Minnesota offense is not inspiring to me. I played Minnesota yesterday with Pablo Lopez, first five, and Lopez pitched really good, but I ended up getting a push on one side of the… I played it in a parlay, won the parlay, but that was a half parlay split with Lopez. Minnesota, to me watching the game, I think you got to be careful with recency bias and watching one game, but I wasn’t impressed with what I saw.

Then I look at my numbers, I have them 23rd in baseball versus right-handed pitching versus the Rays, who I’m not super excited about, but they’re 12th in baseball, 10 points from a projected runs created standpoint, more than the Twins’ offense. Corbie made some good points about Glasnow. You look at his numbers and he does things a little bit differently, he uses Statcast quite a bit and it’s just top, elite numbers in Statcast. If you just look at a strikeout percentage, 27.3, last 150, 86th percentile. You look at stuff plus on the athletic, 93rd percentile, pitching plus 97th percentile. I was surprised when I looked at the model, I had Sonny Gray rated as a league average pitcher and I thought, “That’s weird, let me go ahead and double-check the calculations.”

I went into his game log and, if you look, his last 17 starts, from a median standpoint, five strikeouts, but two walks, a BBK that’s league average, and a ground ball percentage that’s good, but it’s not super elite at 49%. Gives them a quick ERA of 4.2. The way I do it with the median in the last 17, that makes sense and we’re getting quite a bit of value here on the first five. Going to put it in a parlay, as they say, Kyle, and make it the first leg of the Basewinner parlay.

Kyle Purviance:

I love that. Good pitching matchup, two good teams. I am, what? Nine wins away from the Twins from caching my season over 83 and a half wins total. The Basewinner parlay has been absolutely on fire. For purposes of the show, we’re locking in the Rays on the first five as the first leg of the Basewinner parlay. Before we go to the next game, guys, don’t go to the next game, because we do have an early game today. We have a double-header out in Philly between the Braves and the Phillies, and we have a question about that game. You have Morton on the mound for the Braves, we have Taijuan Walker on the mound for the Phillies. The problem… I’m completely staying away. You got a total of 10, but if you look at the weather situation out there, it looks like the entire day they’re going to be having scattered storms and dealing with that stuff. Could have delays all day and things getting a little bit funky.

For me, it’s a stay-away. I think the pitching match was pretty even. Morton, I would give the slight advantage, too. Just off the top of my head, I’m not a huge Taijuan Walker fan. Lots of wins. What, 15 wins on the air, but an ERA over four? For me, it’s dicey. What do you think, Basewinner, in that first game, Braves-Phillies?

Basewinner:

I think if you have to play it, you go with the over, you’re looking at two really good offenses. In fact, Phillies, who’s always mediocre on, they’re now number five in baseball. Of course, the Braves, number one by a big amount. They actually got upgraded. Believe it or not, they got upgraded.

Kyle Purviance:

Braves [inaudible 00:16:26] the playoffs already. Did you see that? Punched the playoff berth?

Basewinner:

It’s crazy, but you do mention some valid concerns regarding the weather there. I don’t know. It’s tempting you, you want to play it, man, you play it all weekend in football and stuff and you’re like, “Hey, more I need some more… It’s a dopamine, serotonin response. I want to keep that going”, but if you play it, my advice would be to play the over. That’s how I would do it, I think.

Kyle Purviance:

Corbie, any thoughts on that real quick before we move on to our next game on this game, one Morton and Walker? Starts here in about 50 minutes.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, the Phillies have looked really good versus the fastball. Their numbers versus breaking stuff hasn’t been as impressive, they’re still early. They just set the record for most home runs in a month, don’t get me wrong, but their stuff versus breaking stuff hasn’t looked as good. Is Charlie Morton good enough to do anything? I’m not sure, but his curveball notably does have the highest spin rate in, I think they said, league history. His last outing, he recorded the highest spin rate, which is impressive, because in league history, there’s been a lot of times that there was artificial sticky stuff on people’s hands. To, I would assume, not have that and also set the record is impressive. I could have that stat completely wrong, I read it on Twitter this morning. Watching it, it does break like crazy, so by all means.

I don’t like Charlie Morton, I would lean towards an over, because he can’t lean anywhere else with the Braves on the mound. Also, both lineups have been announced, because the game’s starting soon and both lineups look plenty fine. They’re not too worried about whether… I wouldn’t assume or they wouldn’t start their entire… Everybody, but Sean Murphy’s basically the only person out, so pretty good lineups overall.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep. Mark Holmes says, “Am I struggling to open my eyes today?” I feel good, I think. I don’t know, maybe just a little focused. It’s a busy time of the year, I’m covering three things.

Basewinner:

Tell the truth. [inaudible 00:18:22]. Tell the truth, come on.

Kyle Purviance:

I still behave. I had a golf tournament Saturday and then I brought one of the girls home who was working the tournament. She ended up crashing over at the house and I took the advice I’ve been giving you guys all year in the chat box, you got to reject them one or two times. She slept here in my bed and I would not sleep with her, and she has not stopped hitting me up since. I’m telling you right now, boys. There is nothing I could do wrong now, because of that one night of rejection. Keep that in mind, if you’re just strong for one night… All you got to do is be strong one time, the universe is yours. Let’s head to the next game on the docket. 909, 910, it’s Jesus day in Milwaukee. We’ve got Luzardo in the Marlins, I believe it’s Woodruff in the Brewers.

I always get backwards with those Brewers pitchers. Minus 141 to Milwaukee, plus 126 to Jesus. Total of seven and a half, juice to the under at minus 125. No, Ed Plus, I did not tell her I was 55, I didn’t really need to do that. I was already older than her anyways, so it was fine. You know what I mean? It’s pretty damn funny. Corbie, let’s start with you here. Woodruff, Jesus. Jesus has that implotability factor here, but of course, it’s the Brewers’ offense. My numbers, obviously, Woodruff is the large pitching advantage here. What are your thoughts here, Brewers-Marlins?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I’ve talked about it on the show a million times. I don’t really like Woodruff, I think that he plays at his ceiling at all times and, at some point, he’s going to have to get showed, and he continues to say opposite. He has a 261 expected batting average versus Marlin’s lineup, and a 179 batting average. He continues to make something work and, by all means, I’m probably wrong here. I haven’t faded him or backed him just because it’s one of those things that I don’t have high conviction on, but just watching him… He darts fastballs down the middle of the plate and gets them past people. I am not buying into his stuff as much as I probably should, even Statcast says he’s a good pitcher and I’ve never believed it. That said, Luzardo is pretty solid. I think it’s a really low scoring game. What’s the total here? Yeah. Seven and six and a half at this point.

Kyle Purviance:

Wow.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. There’s six and a half at bars, which is just like… Both of these offenses aren’t great. The Marlins have cleaned up some, but the Brewers are the team that I have been the most wrong on. I have Brewers not to make the playoffs, so my Brewers read is probably wrong. I don’t assume there’s many runs here, but I would lean towards the Brewers.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Mark Holmes Wins The Day says, “If we take Basewinner’s wisdom and money, Kyle’s game, and Corbie’s hair, let’s make a perfect man.” I love that, I love that, and we’re going to take my-

Basewinner:

That’s so nice. That’s got to be the nicest thing that’s ever been said in the chat box. Thank you, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Thanks, guys. Yeah, we appreciate that. Now, this game, Basewinner. Luzardo has been good his last three starts, right? He’s been good, Luzardo. He’s been good, Jesus. Jesus has been on point, he’s been answering the emails, probably answering prayers. Unless you’re in those hurricane alleys, you’re getting hammered by hurricanes. I don’t know if you guys just started praying enough out there in those little hurricane regions or what, or if Jesus is busy pitching while the hurricane forms. I know a lot of stuff happened in there. Woodruff, by my number, is a 553 weighted OPS, it’s the lowest on the card. He’s been really, really, really good. My numbers would say it’s Brewers here, but I just get nervous about the offense and, if Luzardo is on, those Brewers are going to struggle. What do you think here, B-Dub, in this one?

Basewinner:

I’ve got this on the first five, some value here. I’m showing the… I’m going to make it the second leg of my parlay with… Who was the first team, Kyle? Tampa Bay.

Kyle Purviance:

Tampa Bay.

Basewinner:

It’s 220. It concerns me that… I guess I’m flustered, because it concerns me that I’m betting against Jesus. Gosh.

Kyle Purviance:

I know.

Basewinner:

Wow, but-

Kyle Purviance:

If it’s South Park Jesus, you’re fine. Trust me.

Basewinner:

Yeah, but there’s some good reasons on it. You look at Woodruff’s last 150 strikeout percentage, it’s really good. 97th percentile, 32.2% raw number, and Luzardo has been good at 26.7 strikeout percentage, which is in the 81st percentile. I don’t think that this is a play against Luzardo, I think it’s a play on Woodruff, and he’s been really, really good, particularly at home. First of all, stuff plus is good too. 92nd percentile, this is the stuff plus since August 1st of this year, so a recent number. I think it might be a little concerning and I wanted to check that, because I think it might be a little concerning, because Woodruff has a lack of body of work, if you will, because he was injured for a while, but if you look at his body of work, especially at home, he’s got seven starts over the last 365 days at home.

Dude, his median strikeout is 10. Double-digit median strikeout, block only one, and his basement ERA is 1.42. I can’t pass that up, that’s just too good to pass up. Yeah. Offensively, you’ve got… I don’t know, probably these teams are even offensively. I’ve got, actually, the Marlins a little bit better, but the way it all shakes out, got a little bit of value here with the pitcher who, particularly at home, has just been tremendous, and I’m going to put it in a parlay, the second leg of the parlay, and when it wins, it’s going to pay plus 224, guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, the Marlins playing themselves back into playoff contention, winning eight of their last 10. Half game back now, the final wild card spot with the Diamondbacks, who we thought had played their way out as the Giants fallback. Look, this is an important game here. Both teams, obviously, Milwaukee trying to hang on and win that division. Miami, only a half game out. Important game, but by my numbers, it’s Woodruff, by Basewinner’s numbers, it’s Woodruff. I think we’d all agree Woodruff’s the advantage here. Sometimes that scares me, when it’s so obvious. You’re like, “Okay, someone’s going to open my apple pie, take a dump right in the middle, and put the crust right back over and wait for me to eat it.” You know what I mean? That’s just what’s waiting to happen. For purposes of the show, the Basewinner Parlay, Rays first five, Brewers first five. Look at this number, plus 224 with two pitching advantages there.

Backing two excellent pitchers, I think there’s definitely ways to have worse value than that. That’s the Basewinner Parlay today at plus 224. Let’s get to the last game on our docket, then we’ll get to the Q and A. We’ve got 911, 912. Jordan Wicks and the Cubs, minus 174. Kyle Freeland and the Rockies at plus 154. Total of 11 and a half. How about this? With a little bit of juice to the under at Coors Field at minus 115. Basewinner, what do we think here? The Cubs certainly have the offensive advantage here, but are we trusting Jordan Wicks now?

Basewinner:

It’s hard to do and it’s not because maybe the guy’s a bad pitcher, it’s just because he doesn’t have a huge body of work. He’s never pitched in Colorado. I don’t know, I don’t like to play games where the guy hasn’t pitched in Colorado. It’s just a pet peeve of mine, I guess. The other thing with Wicks… First of all, I will say that I have him rated better than I do Kyle Freeland, I’ve got him 7% worse than average. I’ve got Freeland, he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball by my numbers, 132, 32% worse than average at 138. I think I got 148 guys in there, so right towards the bottom. Freeland’s stuff plus is low, 23rd percentile, but so is Wicks, 11th percentile. Freeland’s strikeout percentage, low. 16.1 raw strikeout percentage, last 150 puts him in the 15th percentile, and hard hit per nine for Freeland is 16.8 hard hits per nine. This, I think, is from July 1st, so a pretty current number and that’s the lowest two percentile of baseball.

I’m going to pass on it. My model does like the Cubs, though, so minus 222 and I think that Mr. Corbie Cheeks might have something to say about this game, so I’ll throw it over to him.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, there’s a lot of weather, actually, going on in baseball today, scattered that East coast. There’s all that, what? Low pressure or high pressure and warm water and all that stuff going on in the Atlantic Ocean. Just real quickly, Corbie, if you look at Kyle Freeland’s history against the projected lineup tonight for the Cubs, 25 of 64. It’s not a huge sample size, but they’re still hitting 391 weighted OPS. Wicks, 716. Kyle Freeland, 877. Numbers indicate advantage Cubs here. What do you got, Corbie, Cubs-Rockies?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, dude. The Cubs first five run line minus 110, I think, if you like the Cubs, play the Cubs. I know somebody asked about the parlay there, but if they’re going to be up… This game’s projected six runs through five, so if you want the Cubs through five, take the run line. They’re either going to be up or losing. They’re supposed to be the runs. The biggest thing here, Jordan Wicks is a ground ball pitcher. In Coors, I don’t worry very much about the altitude issues and the ability to get hard hit, because he produces a lot of ground balls. Also, this is his first time in Coors. That’s always a worry, the barometric pressure is the highest in the entire US today in Denver, so I imagine that he’ll be fine with his breaking stuff. The biggest thing here, he doesn’t throw breaking stuff, he only throws a fastball change up.

I don’t think there’s going to be any issues with rotations per minute. As you said, Kyle Freeland has gotten an absolute shield by this team. A 390 average, 324 expected bad average, 9% strikeout rate versus this Cubs lineup. Can the Cubs score runs more than the Rockies on a pitcher who they’ve seen very well? I think so. Jordan Wicks is a guy I backed the last two times he started, so maybe I just have my numbers too high on him, but I don’t think so. 66 degrees, I imagine this game goes under. I didn’t play it under, I wanted a Rockies team total under, but it was a pretty miserable number, so an angle to attack this would be Cubs first five frontline.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, what was that miserable number for the Rockies? I was just looking at that when you-

Corbie Craig:

Think it was four and a half minus 130.

Kyle Purviance:

This is why you put those numbers on the sheet, so you could find it, 9/11. Yeah, so their total for the whole game is four and a half. Wow, it’s low total at Coors Field. Yeah, I think Basewinner and I agree the numbers indicate Wicks is the better pitcher here. Kyle Freeland, not necessarily what you’re looking for. Weird weather out in Coors Field. For purposes of this show, we’re locking in the first five run line for Corbie and that is sitting at minus 110. Again, remind you, head over to betustv.com/join if you haven’t already got into the action. If you have any questions on there, you need me to save your marriage, started dating someone, you want me to show you what to do, just let me know. You’re going golfing, you want to pick up a cart girl, I got you, boo. I’ll get you covered. Put your questions in the chat box and we’ll get to-

Basewinner:

[inaudible 00:29:11] you’re glossing over this cart girl thing. This seems to be a reoccurring theme, I mean maybe it’s a chapter-

Kyle Purviance:

This one wasn’t a cart girl, she was one of the vendor girls. You know they have the vendors at each hole and stuff.

Basewinner:

I mean that’s like the pickup artist chapter, like, “How to pick up a cart girl at the golf course.” I think that you probably are an authority on that, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I’ve heard I’m up there in the world rankings, I don’t know where I’m at. I’m sure there’s someone out there in Singapore just slaying at those beautiful golf courses, but nonetheless.

Basewinner:

I’ll tell you what, that’s something that Basewinner… I’m not doing other sports, I think I’m going to do, “Who is the highest ranked in the world on picking up cart girls?” I think you’d be in the top 10, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

Thanks, I appreciate that, honestly. You got to be good at something, you know what I mean? It’s a dirty job, someone’s got to do it, and that’s why I’m here. I’m your huckleberry for things like this. Our first question from Damien Edwards, and this is pretty easy to answer, Damien, “Blue Jays double result today,” with a question mark. I like the Blue Jays, Chris Bassitt has been fantastic, today they’re playing the Rangers, Dane Dunning has not looked great. The problem is the first five run line is plus 105 and the double result is plus 105, so there’s absolutely no reason whatsoever to do the double results. If you like the double results at plus 105, just play the minus 0.5 in the first five at plus 105, and again, you can find those MLB odds only at betustv.com/odds, so make sure you head over there. Yeah, when the numbers are like that… We can forget the double result part, because we know the math doesn’t work, it makes no sense, but in terms of the game, Blue Jays-Rangers, everything says Blue Jays, right, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

I was leaning the other way. Chris Bassitt’s looked good, but I’m not really falling for the idea that he is good. This is the same guy earlier this year that was getting… His stuff, always within three miles per hour of each other. He throws eight pitches at this point. Is the Ranger’s offense good enough to know what he’s throwing and locate it? I didn’t bet it, I don’t have very high conviction on this idea. Dane Dunning, 302 average versus Toronto lineup, but I do think Chris Bassitt can get hit a little more than, and the Rangers have been on a downhill slope. At some point, you’re getting a really good number to action to think that they are better than they’re playing, which one in nine last 10, they’re definitely better than they were playing in the last X amount of days. I think they have a good team overall.

Kyle Purviance:

It’s heartbreaking what’s happened to the Rangers. Still three games back, only one back of the Mariners in the loss column, but still advantage Bassitt here over Dunning, right, Basewinner? I think Garcia is still out for the Rangers as well.

Basewinner:

I got a question for you. Do you have any Toronto futures or is it just on [inaudible 00:31:53].

Kyle Purviance:

I do.

Basewinner:

Okay. Either way, you’re going to win and that’s a good position to be in.

Kyle Purviance:

I believe the future is, if I look, I have Rangers, I took the Jays and the Rangers AL pennant. I got plus 650 on the Jays and 20 to one on the Rangers, and then the World Series, I took the Jays 14 to one and Braves 850. They were the AL team that I liked.

Basewinner:

That might not be too awful, because you got Gausman and then you’ve got Kikuchi, who surprisingly has been… Somebody DM’d me a couple of weeks back and said, “What do you think about Kikuchi for an outside chance of the AL Cy Young?” I thought it was a stretch, but then as I dug into his numbers, he’s really good. I remember I bet him against a Wheeler, when Philly… I think they dueled zero-zero after five and I think that Kikuchi was the better of the two. I think you got that going for you, as far as your futures goes. As far as this game, I’ve got it priced at minus 124. It’s right at market. The thing that was surprising to me, and I had to double check my math, because it was that surprising, Dane Dunning with a 29.5 strikeout percentage last 150 plate appearances. That’s in the 91st percentile and I’ve just always bet against this guy.

I don’t know how he’s done it, because his stuff plus is in the 31st percentile. Yeah, I don’t know, it’s conflicting. For me, I might be a little bit biased evaluating Texas. I don’t know, I don’t have any betts on them. I want Texas to win that division. Isn’t that [inaudible 00:33:28], how it works in your brain sometimes?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. I got to tell you, I’m on the verge. I know Chris Bassitt got shelled his last outing against Texas, but he’s been really solid over his last five starts. Dane Dunning has been absolutely trending the other direction. Plus money on the run line in the first five? Where’s the red button? Where’s the red button? Because I’m going to take the Blue Jays run line in the first five at plus 10., I’m going to back Bass. Dane Dunning, to me, looks like he’s done. He just doesn’t look right. His last three starts, he hasn’t made it out into the sixth inning. Four, four, and five. His last outing, didn’t he come in out of relief for Jordan Montgomery or somebody and he pitched five innings and got rocked? Bassitt, eight innings pitched in each of his last two starts, taking his team to the ninth.

I’ll take the Blue Jays run line first five at plus 105. I’ll write here on the sheet. Bruno, I appreciate you guys, by the way. Jays run line first five. It’s just too good of a price, I think I’m getting a good pitching advantage here. You got injuries in that Texas lineup with Garcia out and I’m getting plus money, so I’m going to take it. Plus 105, you got to get some of these to catch the Basewinner there, so we’re going to make that an official play. Don’t worry about it on the graphic guys, I will explain it at the end of the show, but I like that quite a bit. First of all, we got to get to our chat box. Our chat box is the best and we appreciate you guys. Don’t forget to hit that like button, we love you guys.

Absolutely love you guys. Bobby Hill says, “Every cart girl is someone’s daughter, though.” Ed Bless says, “I’m praying no one in the chat has a daughter who’s a cart girl,” and then Ed Bless astutely points out, “But we wouldn’t know them, so yeah, I don’t care.” Of course, when you go to the gentleman’s club, that’s someone’s daughter as well. Guess what? That could be my mother-in-law, I might just be taking you home tonight and never letting you go to see the light, in the words of Eddie Money. There’s that for you here. Our next question from our guy Mark Holmes, “Where does LA Dodger pitcher, Stone, rank on the Basewinner rankings?” Where do you got this pitcher for the Dodgers, Stone?

Basewinner:

Good question, I’ve got him like 5%. He’s not in the rating, that’s why when he came out, the card, it says “Null,” because he’s not technically one of the main starters. The way I do it is I take, as RosterResource defines, who the SB1, SB2, SB3, SB4, SB5 would be, and then that’s why he’s coming up empty, but I can just go ahead and take a glance at it real fast. Let me just do that.

Kyle Purviance:

I’ll tell you, from a weighted OPS, Gavin Stone, 11.35. Of course, it’s a small sample size, but not a whole lot to impress me.

Basewinner:

He’s right there in the middle. He’s right there in the middle, it’s like 70, 70 something out of 148 or 149 guys. That’s the way that I do it, and again, it’s last 17 median strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball percentage, which I think is a pretty good way to do it, but no rating. There’s not one number in baseball that’s perfect, that’s why you got to use a lot of different numbers and you also need to listen to people. That’s why I listened to Kyle and that’s why I listened to Corbie and that’s why I listened to Jason to define things. To answer his question, he’s right there in the middle. Yep.

Kyle Purviance:

Corbie, any thoughts on Gavin Stone for the Dodgers? This rotation, God, it is brutal. The Dodgers cannot catch a break. What do you think?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I don’t think he’ll have very much time in the lineup. They have enough good arms to… Pepiot will be fine. Walker Buehler, unfortunate that he’s not playing this year, that’s one of my favorite pitchers. Gavin Stone, he’s started off bad. He had four or five ERA in the minors, Wander Franco lives to die, but I think that he would be better off if he stopped throwing his cutter. It would basically make him have a 10 mile per hour velo drop off, and it looks like he has. He only has 46 at this point in the majors, so I think that… If he does that, I would like him a lot more, and we’ll see if he continues. If he throws the cutter, all of his stuff blends too much. He’s a fastball change-up pitcher and it’s just not good enough to stay in a Dodgers rotation by any means.

Kyle Purviance:

We catch grief, because we have some fun here, not enough baseball, but you tell me where you get better pitcher analysis and these two gentlemen flanking me on the right and the left. They do an absolutely amazing job, I love asking them about the pitchers, because I’m getting more detailed and I’ve even put into it. I absolutely love it, so fantastic job by you guys. Ed Bless says in the chat, and I completely agree with this, he says he watched the towers fall from his office all years ago. He says, “My friends, you never know. Call your parents if you still have them, hug your kids and dogs, and enjoy every sandwich.” I think that, especially now, where you got football, baseball, it’s so easy to get wrapped up into this, right? Just all of this and forget some of the deeper things, the more poignant things that we go through in life. I think that’s good advice, it’s important to remember. It’s a shame that it takes something like that for us to do it, but nonetheless, I guess that’s how the universe unfolds.

Our next question from Darryl Turner. We already talked about the Phillies game one a little bit [inaudible 00:38:47] and he’s asking what we think about the Phillies’ money line in game two. Now, game two I believe is Lorenzen, they’ve already scheduled for the Phillies, but I don’t know who’s pitching.

Basewinner:

I’m going to step in here, because I saw that question and I thought I’d price it real fast. What I did for the Atlanta starter, I just put bullpen day in for Atlanta. If you do that, it’s minus 191 by my numbers and 11.5 from a total standpoint. Again, it’s leaning towards the over and it might be an idea, because, Kyle, as you mentioned, there’s some weather there, but you can see what the weather’s like the first game and that would give you an idea. Then maybe you can DM Corbie Cheeks, weatherman, by then, he’ll call… What’s her name? I wish I could remember her name, the sideline reporter there. She’s super attractive and she’s super smart. I think that’s what we need to get with Corbie. If she’s single, I think Corbie needs to try to go after her, but I can’t remember her name.

Karen Hatcher maybe, I don’t know. She’s done some good pieces while I’m watching the game. Then Corbie’s got an in there and he’ll be able to tell you the weather. Yeah, if you play it, maybe check the weather, play the over. That’s my advice.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. What do you think, Corbie, in that game two? Pony’s Picks says he needs a prop for game one in Atlanta today. God, I would look at maybe Matt Olson, RBI props, I like the lefties against Taijuan Walker. Look at something like that. I don’t have an exact… If you’re getting plus money, if you can get a plus 115, plus 120 on an RBI for Matt Olson, I don’t hate that. Getting back to game two, what do you think, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I have no clue who the pitcher’s going to be. I thought it was going to be Bryce Elder, but he pitched three days ago, he went seven innings, so that’s not him. Dodd pitched two days ago, so I assume it’s going to be a bullpen game, which is… I would lean towards an over. Usually, bullpen games, I lean towards an under, but any game with the Braves, I just throw away the under and it’s over or nothing, because I don’t want on the opposite side. Let’s see. From a prop standpoint…

Kyle Purviance:

In that first game.

Corbie Craig:

You could go Ozuna home run at… You could get almost 450, I think that’s-

Kyle Purviance:

That’s not terrible.

Corbie Craig:

… that’s plenty.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Corbie Craig:

That’s where I was going.

Kyle Purviance:

I love how the guys put, “Is his name Basewinner or Basewingman?” I like that. Basewingman’s not terrible.

Basewinner:

Yeah, I want to play cupid for Corbie. Unfortunately, I just looked her up and she seems to be in love with her boyfriend. Got a profile picture with the boyfriend.

Kyle Purviance:

She’s ready to cheat. Trust me, they all are.

Basewinner:

I think, [inaudible 00:41:27] got a good relationship, let’s not infringe on that. You’re like, “Hey, open up. At some level, she’s unhappy.” Karen Hatcher, she’s really done good work. She was talking about Trey Turner and the adjustment that he made based on artificial intelligence. It was really a good piece, I think I brought it up on the show before. Speaking of Trey Turner, let’s put him in a runs plus RBI parlay with Acuna. I think that, if you want a prop, that’s what I would do. Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

I like that.

Basewinner:

By the way, guys. Doing a lot of runs plus RBI work, I think that’s going to be Basewinner 2024, it’s going to be a prop. They’re really pumped up about it. Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, next season. Next season’s going to be great. As far as I know, from what I’ve heard, we’re all sticking around for that show. Everyone’s happy with this show, so we’re going to be right here next season, so don’t go anywhere. Bobby Hill nails this. We were talking about the 9/11 things and what to do. He also says, “Pack a parachute.” I love that point, because first of all, I hate airplanes and I think they’re full of crap and I hate when they tell me that my seat’s a flotation device. If that’s true, asshole, how come when these planes disappear over like the Indian Ocean or the Black Sea, there isn’t an island of floating seats? Give me a damn parachute, so I have a chance to survive, so I have a chance to get out. Now I’m looking around for the biggest, softest person I can find on the plane, because as soon as that thing goes down, I’m grabbing that SOB, we’re jumping out the door, I’m going to try to bounce off him.

Give me a parachute. Get that. Give me a parachute on the airplane. I don’t want your stupid floating seat, give me a parachute, right?

Basewinner:

How did we get to flying planes? How did they get over there?

Kyle Purviance:

Because we’re talking about 9/11 and he says, “And pack a parachute, so you could jump off and not crash in the plane,” which I think makes a ton of sense.

Basewinner:

Yeah. That’s funny, because… The reason I’m intrigued by it, because I was thinking about getting my pilot license before the show. I was like, “I wonder what it takes-”

Kyle Purviance:

Don’t do it.

Basewinner:

Yeah, it’s dangerous. The guy who pitched for the Phillies, really good pitcher, can’t think of his name. Halladay, I think-

Kyle Purviance:

Roy Halladay.

Basewinner:

… crashed his plane. Yeah. A golfer did it, too. The guy that used to wear NFL gear and I can’t remember his name, but he died too. I thought, “Maybe it’d be better…” Because where I’m thinking about moving to, I’m like, “I might need to have a pilot.” I paid the pilot to fly rather than me doing it, because it did seem dangerous, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. No, thank you. Airplanes give me a lot of anxiety. Nonetheless, moving on. Our next question comes from JG. John Denver says, “Don’t do it, Basewinner.” Every time I see a helicopter, I remake Water Runs Dry by Boyz II Men and I say (Singing). I wish Kobe would’ve never gotten an… I’ll never get in a helicopter.

Basewinner:

You’re on fire today. You’ve gone Boyz II Men, you didn’t sing Any Money, but you phrased it. You’re doing well, I think

Kyle Purviance:

I’m hanging in there, I’m hanging in there today. JG says, “Boston money line, Cleveland under parlay.” Who’s pitching for… I think it’s Kutter Crawford today against the Yankees who have Clark Schmidt on the mound. Then we’ve got Cleveland facing… Oh, yeah, the Giants. You’ve got Gavin Williams and Alex Cobb, so I could see the under there. I think that makes some sense. It’s low, though. It’s a seven, seven and a half. I don’t know, that’s a dicey one. I think you’ll have Lemon Booty rooting for that all day long. What do you think, B-Dub?

Basewinner:

I put out Boston first five on a card, so I think that’s a good one. The Giants is a little bit more challenging for me, the under… Cobb has been kind of… Some of his numbers, look at a strikeout percentage. 17.3 last 150, that’s concerning. His command’s been good, he must not have any walks. Then Williams has a pretty high strikeout percentage, 28.2, but his BBK is high. I don’t know, that’s a pass for me, but I do like the front end of that parlay, I like.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, very interesting. I like that under quite a bit, too. Corbie, what do you think? Boston money line, Cleveland-Giants under. That’s our next question, Mel is asking about that Cleveland-Giants under as well.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. One second. I got a red button. Yeah, give me… Kevin, you ready? Give me Alex Cobb strikeouts over three and a half plus 115, I think that’s a really good price.

Kyle Purviance:

Wait, that’s a three and a half?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, plus 115. The market agrees, Pinnacle’s minus 104, so you’re getting a really good price to action just compared to Pinnacle. The main thing here is I think Alex Cobb… We bet an under recently with Alex. No, we bet on the Giants with Alex Cobb. I said that Alex Cobb has breaking stuff, teams just can’t hit it. People are going to look at the guardians, they’re going to go, “Wow, the guardians don’t strike out, and that’s fine.” Alex Cobb also goes pretty deep into the games. I don’t know if he has as of late, I haven’t really kept up, but in years past, he’s been a guy that can go seven innings when needed. Giants in a playoff spot, I think three and a half strikeouts at plus money is a coin flip, which you’re getting a little better than a price of a coin flip, so plus-

Kyle Purviance:

Literally, in his last 10 starts, he’s gone over and five and gone under and five. That’s where you’re at. Cleveland doesn’t strike out a lot, that’s why you’re getting the plus money there, so it’s something to sort of…

Basewinner:

[inaudible 00:46:49] good when Corbie bet him last, though. He pitched-

Corbie Craig:

One pitch from a no-hitter.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. One pitch from a no-hitter, yeah.

Basewinner:

Gosh. Corbie, I wish I could remember what you said. Something about… This is what I took away from it.

Corbie Craig:

The Reds want to chase fastballs and he doesn’t throw fastballs.

Basewinner:

What I took away from it, “When this guy’s sinker sinking, he’s really hard to hit.” My thought was with the sinker, because it inspired me, Corbie. You inspired me again to try to model guys who have the same repertoire as Cobb and see if they’re stinker sinking more than it usually does. Maybe that’s a good way to bet it in game and that’s something I was thinking about heavily, especially when this guy was just lighting it up against Cincinnati the last time you bet him.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. I think one big thing here, and this is a good just takeaway overall for anybody who wants to bet on stuff, but first off, the total seven and a half, because it’s in San Francisco, but they’re obviously expecting these pitchers to have their stuff working. In San Francisco, usually you’re going to have more break. Let’s see. Strikeouts in San Francisco, basically, league average, but wind’s blowing out. It’s either going to be a pop-out or a strikeout in most cases. If he pops out six times, I imagine he goes seven innings pitch. If he goes seven innings, he only has three strikeouts, I will lose this and that will be plenty fine, but I think he has plenty opportunities here.

Kyle Purviance:

You’d be a good. Mel asks about Alex Cobb over 16 and a half outs at minus 120.

Corbie Craig:

It depends on what the rest-

Kyle Purviance:

[inaudible 00:48:27].

Corbie Craig:

Yeah. It depends on what the rest of the market is. You can get Cobb 16 and a half minus 105 BetUS, so I wouldn’t play 120.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Head over to betustv.com/join and get better odds right now.

Corbie Craig:

Looks 05 is actually the best price in the entire market. If you want the best price, BetUS. I would play 112 basically, would be fine. If you can find anything under 112, I like that. He’s either going to hit the strikeout or the pitching out’s over. I would hope it’s the strikeout plus 115.

Kyle Purviance:

Mark Holmes says, “No K props, Corbie. My butt still hurts from the Greinke one.” He got raw dogged on that one just a little bit there, so go play [inaudible 00:49:07].

Basewinner:

Hey, just real quick. There was a little clip and Greinke was pitching to his kids and his kids looked pretty good. Nothing against the kid, but people on his Twitter thread, they’re like really clowning it. They’re like, “Man, he saved his best stuff for his kid,” because he’s lobbying the ball to his kid, “Man, that stuff looks better than it did his last time out.” It was funny, I thought.

Kyle Purviance:

That is fantastic. First of all, I want to say thank you to everyone watching. You know you expect interest in the show to taper off as football becomes prevalent and you got Monday Night Football tonight, and that is not the case with you guys. Over 100 people watching live. Super active chat box, great questions. We really appreciate you guys. Be sure to hit subscribe, hit the like button. We really, really appreciate you guys. It can be humbling at times, because you just don’t expect it, so thank you, all, so, so much. Our question and it’s from us… It’s from the guys backstage to Corbie. They want to know, Popeye’s chicken sandwich is rated better than the Chick-fil-A in some places. Do you care to explain? Look, I love the Po’ Boy from Popeye’s without pickles, of course. Pickles are absolutely disgusting on a chicken. That just grosses me out in every way, shape, or form. It’s like a lizard pissing all over your sandwich, I just don’t get it. What do you think here, Corbie? Popeye’s coming in, taking over your Chick-fil-A sandwich. What’s up?

Corbie Craig:

It’s a super easy response. First off, let’s just use baseball. You know the Dodgers, they’re pretty good, right? People still hate the Dodgers. If you go to the East Coast, you’re going to hear, “Man, the Dodgers aren’t that good.” You know why? Because they’re the best and everybody hates them. Alabama, amazing football team. No matter what, there will be people that hate Alabama. If you’ve had a Chick-fil-A sandwich and you’ve had a Popeye’s sandwich and you blindfold yourself, I would put minus 700 that you choose the Chick-fil-A sandwich, and I’m not even worried about it. I had both and I have no affiliation to Chick-fil-A. I don’t care who’s better. If Popeye’s made a better sandwich, I would go to Popeye’s, but it’s not. It was a big craze during COVID. There were lines two wraps around Popeye’s and I’m like, “Dude.” That’s fine with me, because now I have a shorter line at the actual good place, so I’ll take it. No, if Popeye’s put some pimento cheese on their chicken sandwich, then we might start talking, but for now, not happening.

Kyle Purviance:

I love it. Before we get out of here and get to Best Bets, I will say I like the Bills minus two tonight. Jets have a lot of new pieces. Look, we love Aaron Rogers, but one thing to look at, go look at both quarterbacks. Their touchdown passing props are low, both are at over one and a half. You’re getting plus money for Aaron Rogers over one and a half touchdowns at plus 110, over one and a half for Josh Allen’s near even money, it’s pretty close. A little both touchdown in each half passing, touchdown in each half parlay is not bad either. Keep an eye on the weather, the Bills do not play great in poorer weather. I know there’s some chance for showers tonight, although the weather should be warm. That Jets secondary is really, really good. Under on Stefan, big props in my view.

He struggled against Sauce Gardner last year. Dalvin Cook over 12 and a half carries. You got the battle of the brothers, Dalvin Cook for the Jets and his younger brother, James Cook, but he’s going to split carries with Damien Harris. I like that over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus money. For me, too many new pieces, a lot of stuff with the Jets there. It’s going to take some time for that to be cohesive. The Bills, they know what they’re doing out there. I’ll take Buffalo minus the two points. You’re getting a good line over at betustv.com/join. Minus two at minus 110, I think the Bills cover the run line today. Let’s go over our best bets of the day and get you out of here on a Monday. 118 people watching live right now, I can’t believe it. Thank you, guys so, so much.

Basewinner Parlay today is the Rays first five and the Brewers first five at plus 224. Love that number. I’m on the Orioles double result plus 100 for even money and the Blue Jays on the run line in the first five at plus 105. Corbie’s on the Cubs run line in the first five at minus 110 and Alex Cobb over three and a half strikeouts at plus 115. Again, thank you, guys, so, so much. We really appreciate all the support. We hope you have a great day today. Don’t forget to hit that like button. If you’re watching later in the day, leave a comment in the comment section. I try to go in there and check on things. If we’ve got a question or something, I’ll be happy to answer it throughout the day, so leave your comments there. From myself, Basewinner, Corbie, hug your mom today, tell everyone you love him. Try to be nice today, let’s have one day we’re all just nice to each other, it’s 9/11, and of course, good luck on all your future wagers.