MLB Picks Today [September 12th] MLB Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds

Kyle Purviance:

Folks, welcome in to BetUS TV. I’m Kyle Purviance. He’s Spreadapedia, he’s Basewinner. We are your Major League Baseball team for MLB Show Tuesday, September 12th. We are america’s favorite sportsbook

And yes, this is a baseball show. You’re going to get all sorts of great baseball analysis but I think we all got to talk about it and a big, big I’m sorry, a big hug, big air hug for our guy Ed Blust out there

The New York Jets, like everyone thought, I had Buffalo -2 last night. The Jets beat the Bills with Zach Wilson as quarterback, Aaron Rodgers done for the year.

We’re seeing a bunch of injuries too in baseball. It just seems like something’s in the… “I’m hurt today. I can’t bend over. My back is toast. Absolutely toast.” But really…

Look, I’m not a Jets fan. I like when the Jets are good because I like when different teams do well, you get bored with, “Okay, the Patriots and Tom Brady.” “Okay, the Steelers and this.” “Okay…” It gets boring. Really bummed out for football. It’s just a big loss, right? For the sports world, right, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, it’s a bummer for everybody. You got one throw out of him, no completions and the Aaron Rodgers Jets era likely ends one quarter into the first game of the first week of the NFL season and could be the end of his career at his age. No guarantee he’s got the fire to come back next year. Obviously, the money’s going to be there, but does he even want to rehab from this point? And it’s just a disappointing end to his career, if so, but that’s the way football is. Not everyone gets a happy ending.

Kyle Purviance:

I try to get a happy… Look, if I don’t get a happy ending, you only get a $10 tip. You don’t get that cool crisp 20 if I don’t get a happy ending. That’s how that works when I go in.

But BDub… And look, there’s lots of injuries in baseball too. Gosh, just looking right here. Siri for the Rays now. They might option Charlie Morton. Of course, we see Urías thing is not an injury. The Dodgers removed his locker.

Can we just get some good news in sports? You know what I mean? And as the resident old guys, right? We’re the old guys. I root for Aaron Rodgers. Who was left from that era of the great quarterbacks that we were watching? The Peyton Mannings, the Tom Bradys, the Roethlisberger, the Philip Rivers, he’s the last one. Who’s the guy as old guys root for now in the NFL?

Basewinner:

Right. It’s time to turn it over I guess in the NFL.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

The NFL is so perplexing to me. That’s why I don’t handicap. It’s like I can’t understand. And you see a play… They don’t call penalties or the penalty at the end of the game. They probably should have been called, but they didn’t call it. So talk about…

I guess it’s like that in baseball. The other guy misses… Calls a strike a ball and then the next guy hits a homerun. So I guess it’s like that in baseball.

But to me it doesn’t have the same impact. And that pass interference call is just a nightmare to me. How do you call that? Gosh, I think there’s just so much variance in there. It’s really hard for me to handicap.

But I do enjoy it. I can’t say that I don’t enjoy it. Great production quality last night, ESPN.

I’m a fan of Joe Buck. So some people don’t like that, but he’s not as good as he did… Dad was really good. You talked about a good baseball announcer, Jack Buck.

But anyway, I don’t know. I think that that’s a-

Kyle Purviance:

It’s a bummer.

Basewinner:

Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

It is. It’s a real bummer and you just hope that… I had something that I was going to say but I completely forgot. I’ve had to pound down pain pills and I do not know what the hell I did to myself. But yeah, it’s just when you see it’s the end of an era, right? And I guess it’s time to turn over the new leaf and we thought it was going to be fun. Unlikely to me that he rehabs from this, but we’ll see.

And someone says he’s only 38. Kevin Hillmer says, “I’m now at the age where I’m older than any professional player.” I know that’s the problem. I always told myself my whole life, “Yeah, I could start my NFL career now at 27.” Not anymore. Now I’m just useless unless I want to be the heavyweight champ in the UFC which is not going to happen.

So here we are. We’ll remind you guys. Hit that like button, hit the subscribe button. We really appreciate you guys watching. We know that football season’s in full swing and all this other stuff is happening, so we really appreciate you guys being here with us. Share it out with your friends. We’re going to go over six games in our docket today. If there’s a play a game, a question, a love question, you need anything, get it in the chat box. We’ll get to it at the end of the show in the Q&A and of course, to follow along with the MLB odds that we are using, head over to betustv.com/odds.

So let’s get to our records. I went completely even yesterday, the Basewinner parlay cashed the… Who let me down yesterday? Ah, the Cubs I believe let me down yesterday. I’m going back to the well today, but it’s weird. I’m going back to the same two teams here again today. The Orioles were…

Oh, no, it was the Blue Jays, excuse me, who let me down in the first five. Bassitt got slaughtered by the Rangers which is good for futures and of course, the Orioles double result came through.

So let’s get after it today, 951-952 Joan Adon and the Nationals at +125, Bailey Falter and the Pirates at -140, total of nine, with some juice to the over at -115.

Jay, I got to be honest, I didn’t even realize Bailey Falter was pitching for the Pirates now. What the hell is going on here?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. Both these teams playing out the season but it does feel a little bit like they’re going in different directions. And the pirates are still building something. They’ll get Oneil Cruz back this season.

But for the Nationals, flying under the radar how good they’ve been since the All-Star break. They’ve been one of the better teams in baseball even though they’re far removed from the playoff picture.

So seeing them as a dog here, that’s a nice price for me to back the Nationals here. I just don’t really see much out of Pittsburgh right now to get my money as a favorite.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I agree. I think Washington’s a nice dog today. When you look at the weighted OPS numbers, Basewinner, Joan Adon 729, for Bailey Falter exactly a hundred points higher at 829. So Joan Adon does profile a little bit better in terms of a two-year sample size, but what does the Basewinner model say about these two pitchers?

Basewinner:

I think that’s a decent play. The model says Pittsburgh should be favored but only at -118. And if you look at the guy’s Stuff+, neither guy is very good from a Stuff+ standpoint. But Adon’s at 31 percentile, Bailey Falter is in the third percentile. Adon bests him also in strikeout percentage last 150 played appearance.

And I’m trying to think this Washington offense to me is 18th and the Pittsburgh offense is 18th versus lefties and the Pittsburgh offense is 29th versus right-handed pitching. So I think it’s a good play.

I don’t know why… I’m trying to figure out why I didn’t put this out on the card because it seems like there’s a reason that I omitted it. There was some heart conditions that was going to rain there and… I don’t know. Maybe it’s just my aversion to bet on either of these teams because they’re lost, right? The rest of the season.

Kyle Purviance:

Well, we need the weatherman music to come in.

Filling in for Corbie Cheeks, Dan Radar. So I’ll be Dan Radar today filling in for Corbie Cheeks.

There are some weather situations out here with possibilities of rain. It doesn’t look like there’s anything serious but it looks like in Boston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Boston again in game two and even Chicago in game two, there’s supposed to be some slight rain. So something to keep an eye on all day long. So those are the games I have marked that with the possibility.

Again, I’m just a fill in guy. I’m just Dan Radar filling in for Corbie Cheeks and I do not know the barometric pressure at all whatsoever.

What do you think of the name Dan Radar for our weatherman?

Basewinner:

Why would you just not use your real name?

Kyle Purviance:

Kyle Radar doesn’t have a ring to it. Dan Radar. It just seems Dan Radar. I don’t know. Seems better than Kyle.

Basewinner:

There was this guy that I don’t think this was his real name. This is back when I was a kid. His name was Dallas Rains. I was like, “Eh.”

Kyle Purviance:

Great name. Oh, I bet he was hot too. I love that quite a bit.

For purposes of this show, we’re locking in the Nationals on the money line at +125 for Jay.

Let’s head to the next one on the docket and I don’t know what the hell is going on here, 975-976, Wainwright is pitching again and the Cardinals at +169. You’ve got John Means making his return for the Orioles at -189, total of 10, with juice to the over at -125.

Base, I want to start with you here. I went ahead and added the Orioles as the first leg of my Basewinner parlay today on the run line and the first five. My concern of course, what are we getting out of John Means here? I didn’t even look into the last time he pitched, but I know it’s been a little while here. About Wainwright, Baltimore should go out there and score runs early and should score runs often?

So I’m going to take the Orioles as the first part of my Basewinner parlay in the first five on the run line. What do you got in this one, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

I think that for me, I’ve bet against Wainwright a bunch of times.

And there was something that was really interesting when I was looking at this game because I have it priced right at the market. I got -186 and not that my numbers are bullish on Wainwright by any mean because I have them 143rd out of 149 pitchers. But Means is just really unknown. So I don’t really want to back a team when the pitcher’s unknown. The Cardinal’s good versus left-handed pitching. So I had a little bit of trepidation.

But I think this is the most interesting stat for me is that Wainwright over the last 30 days and this is Stuff+, The Athletic does it, he’s in the 84th percentile which I thought was super high. But if you look at his last start, it was like a 106 raw. They do it I think a hundreds close to average or 98 or whatever, but that’s why I do it to percentile because I’m not sure.

But his last start out, he was fourth on the board out of 12 with a Stuff+ and I thought, “Man, that’s odd. That’s really odd.” What’s happened is because I’ve watched these games because I’ve bet these games, betting against Wainwright, and he has moments where he can throw a damn good pitch and so just because of that, I’m going to stay away from this game. I hope you guys hit your plays. I know you have a play. I think Jason’s got a play on it too.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. So I think I have to be really high, like you were saying, to believe that Wainwright’s Stuff+ is high because that just doesn’t make any sense, 1034 weighted OPS.

Bobby Hill nails it in the chat box. Dan Doppler, Danny Doppler instead of Dan Radar. That’s pretty damn good right there. Let’s go with Danny Doppler. That’s going to be an official change on the show. So let’s get that on there. Danny Doppler filling in for Corbie Cheeks. That’s absolutely fantastic.

Hell, even Dick Knotts, his name in the chat box. Dick Knotts is an excellent weather name and that’s his real name. That’s amazing.

Jay, John Means has not pitched, I just looked, since April. He had two starts this year was okay in those two starts way back in April to start the year. Has not pitched since and I still got to say I’d rather back him than Adam Wainwright, right?

Spreadapedia:

Well, no, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since… He is coming back off Tommy John’s surgery since-

Kyle Purviance:

From April last year, so it was April last year. Okay.

Spreadapedia:

He’s had six starts in the minors on the way back during his rehab and his last three have come at Triple-A at Norfolk where he’s had 14.1 innings, 12 strikeouts. He’s looked all right. I think he’s got, let’s see, 251 ERA. Yeah, 2.51 ERA in that three starts at Triple-A. So expect a little bit better quality of bats tonight from St. Louis, but he’s still a decent pitcher and he’s been pitching well in his rehab.

Lot to like here with Baltimore. I laid it. I think I laid 186. I think the game’s been on the move a little bit this morning. Not surprising. Probably going to be mostly one-way money on Baltimore.

But the other bet I think it’s just an easy play today. Baltimore team total over 5.5 up to -120. I played that a little earlier this morning myself.

I wanted to back the Cardinals a couple turns ago and I did with Wainwright. I was saying, “This is his chance to get a win,” and I think that that window’s closed. What’s to like about Wainwright now versus a really good team? It’s not like they’re going to take it easy on him and just give him a win.

So Baltimore and team total over for me.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, I like Baltimore here today as well. We’ll see how John Means prevails.

For purposes of the show-

Basewinner:

This stat… This might be the most interesting stat on the show today because it’s really surprising.

So in his last start, Wainwright pitched and freed pitched who had the better Stuff+ number. It was Wainwright. That’s so surprising to me.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s crazy.

Basewinner:

Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, that makes no sense. That makes-

Spreadapedia:

Still I think we’ve said at every show Wainwright, there’s no other team that would keep putting Wainwright out there starting. Just week to week, he’s not MLB starting pitcher anymore and he’s facing one of the better lineups in baseball now.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, that seems like tough sledding for me, again, at 1034 weighted OPS for Wainwright.

Kevin Hillmer says, “We had a news anchor named Dick Johnson in Chicago for a while.” That’s a hell of a name. Well, Dick Johnson, take that.

It’s the only body part where that works, right? You don’t have Anus Butthole, right? No one ever… No one’s name was ever Anal Ass.

Basewinner:

There was a really good player in Major League Baseball. I think he played for the Phillies, but I’m not sure, maybe perhaps the As. Guy’s name, not making this up, Dick Green. That’s not a name that I want.

Kyle Purviance:

Well, you don’t want it to be green. It’s not supposed to be. If it’s green, that means you’re with a woman who was unclean, not to rhyme, but that’s what happened. Or man. Whoever you’re with, love who you love.

For purposes of this show, Jay has a couple of plays here. Orioles -189 on the money line and the team total over five and a half at -122.

I’m taking the Orioles run line in the first five innings as the first leg of my Basewinner parlay today.

Moving on 963, 964 Scherzer and the Rangers sitting at -113 coming off that win yesterday against Hyun-jin Ryu Street Fighter II and the Blue Jays at +103, total of eight, with some juice to the over at -115.

All right, Jay, so yesterday I was on the Blue Jays first five with Bassitt and Dane Dunning did not quite work out for me. Rangers obviously dealing with injuries in their lineup. Garcia and Josh Jung who could be back by the end of this road trip later this week. Josh Jung could be back in that Texas line-

Spreadapedia:

I heard Saturday.

Kyle Purviance:

Saturday? That makes sense, which would be good for them.

Ryu has not been God awful, right? So I’m not just running out here to say… And Scherzer did not look great in his last start against the Astros. He got absolutely shelved. It’s a tough spot for me here. I want to lean Texas, the weighted OPS favors Ryu actually 619 for Ryu, 691 for Scherzer. Two good teams here. I just stayed the hell away. I have no idea what to do in this game. What do you got on this, Jays-Rangers, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. No play for me here. I feel for you and your Texas bets. I think they’re still fighting for a playoff spot and there was a point where it seemed like they were favorites to win the division and the Astros have righted that ship and… No play for me here, but the Rangers got to start winning some games or they might not even make the playoffs at this point.

Kyle Purviance:

I would love it if the Rangers could find a way to win this division. I need it, I want it, I want some more of it.

What do we got here? Are you backing my Rangers today, Basewinner? Are you backing the Blue Jays?

Basewinner:

You know what, Kyle? We love to do the parlay.

Kyle Purviance:

Let’s go.

Basewinner:

Yeah. And this is the first piece. There we go.

Oh, that was your best musical ever on Friday, by the way.

Kyle Purviance:

Appreciate that.

Basewinner:

Man, I’m sure you got some calls on a human music machine agent, right?

Kyle Purviance:

Yes, I absolutely did.

Basewinner:

This game, I think that Scherzer first five is a good opportunity here. You look at some of the key numbers. First of all, I have a price first five -200. So value there and I’m going to make it. I’m going to go Scherzer with Verlander. I like that. Houston full game and when it hits, it’s going to be +158.

And if you look at Scherzer’s key numbers, last 150 strikeout percentage, last 150 plate appearances, 32%, that’s pretty good, 94th percentile. You look at Stuff+ 73rd percentile, that’s pretty good. And you look at Ryu, Ryu is in the 19th percentile, that’s not very good.

And I think that for me there’s a gap in these offenses. I’ve got the Rangers ranked seventh in baseball versus respective split and I’ve got Toronto ranked 22nd versus right-handed pitching.

So for all those reasons, I think this is a good opportunity, first leg of the Basewinner parlay Texas first five.

Kyle Purviance:

Going to put them in a parlay. We’ve got a couple Basewinner parlays today. I got to tell you. My Basewinner parlay is juicier and your Basewinner parlay today which I like quite a bit. Not that it’s a competition, but mine’s juicier today. That’s all I’m going to say.

For purposes of the show, good matchup, two good teams. The first leg of the Basewinner Basewinner parlay, not the Basewinner Kyle parlay, the Basewinner Basewinner Parlay, Texas in the first five innings is the first leg of that parlay.

Next game, 955, 956, Ryan Nelson and the Diamondbacks sitting at -105. This is flat across the board, the Mets and the Diamondbacks. For the Mets, you’ve got José Butto.

We’re just talking about Dick Johnson, but you see what first name do you put with José Butto? You can’t just make him Anus Butto, right? You can’t make him… What do you make him? Sphincter Butto? You can’t. You can’t do it. Dick Johnson, it’s a unique part. You know what I mean? So many great things there.

A total of nine and a half is of juice to the over at -115.

What do you think here, Bdub? When I look at the weighted OPS numbers, Butto doesn’t profile terribly. He’s only got one decent start in his career. Nothing great. Ryan Nelson in 872 big time implodability factor, had negative nine fantasy points. The last time he played this Mets lineup, he got absolutely torched. What does the Basewinner model say? Mets-Diamondbacks, what do we do?

Basewinner:

Yeah. I’ve got it price -126 and I am going to refrain from a play. I think that sometimes you’ve got to admit to yourself when you’re rooting for a particular team and I’m really rooting for the Dbacks right now. I want to see them make the playoffs. They lost their TV deal, the stadium’s getting old. They’ve got all these things that are like, “Oh, man, this sucks for these guys,” but they’re still in the thick of the playoff race, so I don’t want to bet against them and I probably won’t unless there’s something extreme or I want to bet against them in a parlay but I probably won’t. But anyway.

I’d like the Stuff+ Butto… Is it But-ho or But-to?

Kyle Purviance:

I don’t know. Butto…

Ed Blust, is it a boot or a butt? We need Ed Blust to tell us. I’m sure he absolutely-

Basewinner:

Anyway, José has got a better Stuff+ number than Ryan 50 percentile versus the 25th percentile. I’ve got about average from a Basewinner numbers standpoint in the model and I actually like the Mets a little bit better offensively than the Dbacks versus the respective split.

So I’m going to refrain from a play here, Kyle. It’s not that exciting game, right?

Kyle Purviance:

I would say on the surface you look at the two teams and go, “Oh, the Diamondback’s a much better team.” A lot more to play for as well. They’re right in the thick of that playoff hunt. The Mets of course are toast. What do you think about this one, Jay, Nelson versus Butto?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, yeah. So my thing with the Mets is they’re basically soft tanking. They’re not coming out and saying it and they might not be actively trying to lose games but they’re putting veterans on the disabled list and giving younger guys starts and not necessarily trying to win because they’re incentivized to get a better draft pick and rebuild quicker. So sometimes, you’re just not going to see their best lineups or their optimal pitchers or whatever bullpen.

So for me, it’s just an easy spot to back the Dbacks here who are still playing for… What’s it called? For a playoff spot, a wild card spot. And we got the… What’s his name? Lawlar, the shortstop who you mentioned. I mentioned they aggressively promoted. He looks pretty good. Great addition. Him and Carroll going to carry this team. They’re going to be the guys that pushed this team as far as it can go.

But I’m happy to back Dbacks and Jerry Lawlar here today. I know Jerry’s not his name, I’m just calling him that.

Kyle Purviance:

Me too. Absolutely. That’s the only Lawlar that matters.

Spreadapedia:

You got me on that. I’m going to start having to call him Jerry.

Kyle Purviance:

Ed Blust says, “But, it’s pronounced Butt,” and then Bobby Hill wants to know, “What’s Butto’s Stuff+ number?” And I think that’s a play on the question, but let’s answer it, but I love how you could word that question.

Basewinner:

Oh, he’s right at league average right there last 30 days.

Spreadapedia:

Butto makes me think of Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister of Pakistan. I don’t know what it makes you guys think of, but…

Kyle Purviance:

Nope. Never heard of that guy. Never once hear of him.

Spreadapedia:

I think it was a woman. I like saying things like that because I never know what Kyle’s response is going to be.

Basewinner:

I think the political trivia crown for all four guys on this show this year would… The odds that Jason would win it are just like, I don’t know, minus what?

Kyle Purviance:

Roof? [inaudible 00:23:38].

Basewinner:

20,000.

Kyle Purviance:

I don’t read books.

Basewinner:

I do know the president of the United States though. I do know who that is. That’s good.

Kyle Purviance:

That’s… Well, I’m not sure he knows, but that’s a whole another show.

We got to start… And look, I don’t like either political party, but don’t we got to start doing stuff? You can’t be like 85 years old doing these jobs. It just seems cruel. When my grandpa got to that age, he would accidentally order a porno. We had to take the remote control away from him because the cable bill was 400.

Spreadapedia:

Accidentally, huh?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. Well, I know he was jumping at work-

Spreadapedia:

Yeah. He was accidentally doing it.

Kyle Purviance:

Well, what does an 85-year-old with a limp rod need to order porno for? He does it.

Spreadapedia:

He just felt like doing it. He was 85. Leave him alone.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. So I’m not saying anything about either political party, I’m just saying I think we need an age limit. Something needs to be done because you can’t have these guys getting… They can’t talk. It’s just… I don’t know what that job. Just seems too important to have people in that mindset doing it, but what the hell do I know?

Can you imagine if I ran for president? Oh, boy, what a dirty campaign we would run. It’d be a lot of fun though. I need a campaign manager. I’m thinking Mrs. Basewinner would be a great campaign manager, whip me into shape.

Basewinner:

Pretty good actually. She’s pretty detailed. She makes good decisions.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah.

Basewinner:

Yeah, yeah. She would be good. I don’t know if she would fully back you but-

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. She have to back-

Basewinner:

… by the way, she said you’re a really, really good host. She said, “Kyle does a great job.” Because she was really a big fan of the Basewinner rap on Friday. That’s the only part of the show she watched because thank God she didn’t watch that whole show because I think there was some strip bar stuff in there. I didn’t really, really want her to see that, but she said, “Oh, Kyle really keeps this show moving. He’s a fun guy.”

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, I appreciate that.

Basewinner:

She patted you on the back and I agree. I agree.

Kyle Purviance:

Tell Mrs. Bdub that I appreciate her very much and thanks for letting us borrow you for a couple hours every morning.

Ed Blust says he has an image in his head of me at 90 watching Skinemax.

Oh, boy. I hope… I plan to live till 150. I’m not a religious person so I want to live as long as possible. So hopefully, at 90, 90 is the new 50 is what I’m hoping.

For purposes of this show after digressing horribly, we’re locking in the Diamondbacks on the money line at -105 for Jay today. Pick them out there in New York.

Next game on the-

Basewinner:

-300 is going to be a comment in there. Come on, guys. Let’s start talking baseball. It’s a baseball show.

Kyle Purviance:

[inaudible 00:26:03]-

Spreadapedia:

Speaking of not talking baseball, we were talking about the Jets. I really like the Jets plus nine and a half this upcoming week two versus Dallas. Usually get this big over reaction after a quarterback injury and the thing is the backup in this case, Zach Wilson, he gets the whole week to practice with the first team offense. So nine and a half points, give me the Jets plus nine and a half. I’m actually going to bet some more on that right now.

Kyle Purviance:

That Dallas defense looks scary, but I will tell you there’s zero shot that Cowboys offense is putting up 40 points on that Jets’ defense. That Jets’ defense is absolutely-

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, it’s a very-

Kyle Purviance:

… legit.

Spreadapedia:

It was a very good defense. It kept them in the game last night. That’s what I’m saying is getting nine and a half points. Remember, week one is the real preseason and you get this whole overreaction so you’re getting nine and a half points. I know it’s never fun to take the Jets and it’s never fun to lay nine and a half points with the Cowboys either. So this is really a true prisoner’s dilemma. No winner. Anyways, back to baseball.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. And I would wait… I think Kevin Hilmers makes a good point. I think that number will probably go up throughout the week. I really do.

Spreadapedia:

I don’t think it’s going to go up. I don’t think it’s going to go through 10.

Kyle Purviance:

You think?

Spreadapedia:

I wish it would go through 10. How much more… How much higher is it going to go? Again, remember, he gets the whole week to practice, he might suck but it’s not like he’s going to spend the whole week not getting the offense directly tailored to giving him the best chance to succeed with an elite defense.

Kyle Purviance:

There we go. NFL breakdown right here on the MLB show on a Tuesday.

Next game on the docket, 971, 972, JP Sears and the As at +240, Justin Verlander, three to one favorite today for Houston, total of eight and a half, with juice to the over at -115.

All right, Basewinner, take it away. I wanted to do a double result here or something, but I’m telling you I don’t like going against the As when it’s JP Sears, there’s something about him makes me nervous. What do you think on this one, Basewinner, Astros-As?

Basewinner:

There’s some numbers for Sears that are serviceable but personally, I’ve got this game priced -334. And I’ve really liked Verlander, what he’s shown from a Stuff+ standpoint last 30 days, Stuff+ 86 percentile, Pitching+ 97 percentile. You look at his game log and this is his median since he’s been with Houston, six strikeouts, one walk, and ISO power allowed a 0.125 and a Basewinner ERA of 3.7. I’ll take that versus this awful Oakland team.

And I tell you what. A lot of people gave me a hard time. I said, “Oakland’s not going to have the worst record in baseball. They’re better than…” So I’m not like total hater Oakland sucks. And guess what? Oakland doesn’t have the worst record in baseball right now. It’s the Kansas City Royals, but-

Kyle Purviance:

Oh my God, I didn’t even realize that. What the hell?

Basewinner:

Yeah. Yep. So all the Oakland haters, there’s something to like I guess there.

Kyle Purviance:

Wow. Oakland winners of six of their last 10 games.

Basewinner:

Yeah, I mean go figure

Kyle Purviance:

Pass the Royals.

Basewinner:

Well, so-

Kyle Purviance:

Wow.

Basewinner:

… that shows you that a team is capable and you can’t dismiss everybody just because of the name of the team. You got to look into the numbers.

And looking into this bullpen number and it’s absolutely atrocious, they’re the worst bullpen in baseball against the third best bullpen in baseball by my numbers. So we have that. You take a look at offense and you got the third best offense by the Basewinner numbers against the 28th, worst off, third best versus the 28th best or third worst, third best, third worst.

And so for all those reasons, it’s priced at -334. I think that’s a fair price and it’s like the Texas two-step today, right? You got Texas first five-

Kyle Purviance:

I like that.

Basewinner:

… and you got your Houston full game and that’s the Basewinner parlay and plus 158 guys on that. I think that’s a good price.

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, I put +140 on the sheet here. I don’t know.

Basewinner:

Oh, you know what? That’s right. It is +140. Okay. I-

Kyle Purviance:

Nice try. Because you’re just trying to get closer to my Basewinner parlay.

Basewinner:

No, I bet it earlier. I bet it earlier. That’s right, that’s right.

Kyle Purviance:

Bobby Hill says, “No joke. There was an Asian man at American Airlines named Hung Fat. That is the best name of all time.”

If my name was Hung Fat, I would have that tramp stamp. I’m not even joking you, I would. If my name’s Hung Fat, I’m tattooing that on my body.

Jay, what do you think here? Verlander versus Sears? I don’t know. I have a weird feeling that there’s value in Oakland today. I don’t know why, but I don’t feel like backing Sears. He’s had a good performance against this Astro lineup once this year. It’s a 792 weighted OPS. The numbers indicated advantage for Verlander but something feels like this is the apple pie shitter today.

Spreadapedia:

To go to the Hung Fat thing real quick, there was a lady who worked in a leasing office in an apartment I lived in once. Her name was Yue, Y-U-E, and I’d get emails from her and I’d respond and it would look in my Gmail and say Yue-Me back and forth.

Kyle Purviance:

Yue-Me.

Spreadapedia:

So it’s like Hung Fat. Made me think of that Yue-Me.

Anyway, I got no play on this game. When I think of JP Sears, I call him the one and only JP Sears now because of the Sergeant Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club band song. But no play for me here in this game. I did have a little bit on the As yesterday so no pressing my luck two days in a row.

Kyle Purviance:

This is why I love our chat box because MC Riddle nails it and I forgot about this guy, Dick Trickle in NASCAR.

That is not a great name.

Spreadapedia:

Dick Trickle.

Kyle Purviance:

Your parents hate the crap out of you. When you’re born, your last name’s already Trickle and they’re like, “Well, let’s make it sound like he’s got a lifelong case of gonorrhea.” Fantastic. Just trickling out Old Dick Trickle. That is pretty damn funny.

For purposes of the show today, we are locking in the Astros full game as the second leg of the official Basewinner Basewinner parlay today along with the first five for the Rangers and that’s at +140.

Let’s go to the last game on our docket and we’ll get to the Q&A. So get your questions in the chat box. We’ll do our best to answer as many as we can, 959, 960, Javier Assad and the Cubs at -178, Chris Flexen and the Rockies at +158, total of 12, with juice to the over at -115.

So the run line for the Cubs on this one, Jay, is at -120 in the first five, the double result’s -105 so it’s not… You’re only getting 15 cents. I’d like a little bit more here, but I don’t want to pay too much juice here.

I think the Cubs get it done. Obviously, I’m going to fade Flexen because I don’t think he’d be out there flexing and I’ll let Basewinner… Basewinner’s got better Chris Flexen jokes than I do.

He’s already ready for it. As you can see, he’s geared up for it. He’s already ready for it. I can already see it in his eyes.

But I went with the Cubs double result here -105. I like Javier Assad. I don’t think he’s got a dominant strikeout type pitcher but he can go long enough into games. He’s not giving up a ton of runs, not giving up a ton of hits.

Chris Flexen, I don’t want to say too much and turn this guy into Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux here, but it’s a 973 weighted OPS. His last time against the Cubs, he was shelled for negative 14 fantasy points here. Give me the Cubs double result -105.

What do you think, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Don’t hate it. Cubs got something to play for. The Rockies… You mentioned the Royals and the As, but the Rockies continue to be one of the worst teams and organizations in baseball just week in and week out.

The 12 and a half in the total though is where my attention would be drawn. Probably lean towards the under to be-

Kyle Purviance:

Interesting.

Spreadapedia:

… honest, but yeah, no, I don’t hate the Cubs here either.

Kyle Purviance:

And I forgot to mention this, my Basewinner parlay, this is also the second leg of my Basewinner parlay, so I really need the Cubs to win the first five innings or the double results dead and my parlay is dead because I’m taking the Cubs run line in the first five as well parlayed with the Orioles run line in the first five and that’s a +224 for my Basewinner parlay today. What does the model say in this one, Bdub?

Basewinner:

Well, the model’s interesting because it brings up the question, do you model it the way I model it and… I got Flexen better than Assad, okay? So you go-

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, shit.

Basewinner:

No but you go… But I’m going to go into this a little bit because you go, “Well, why do you have that Basewinner?” Well, since he’s been in Colorado, his median strikeouts is four, his median walk is one, and his ground ball percentage is 41%. So that’s 2% better than average if you do like a quick ERA on it.

But this is what’s interesting, and I probably honestly should have regressed it when I put it in the model today because I’ve never seen or I probably have seen, but these numbers for his ISO power allowed are brutal and his ISO power strikeout percentage and ISO power numbers are like 8.41 ERA. So you got that.

So it just depends on how you model it, what stat you would use to model it, and I prefer over the years, I thought that the last 17 median strikeout percentage, walk percentage, ground ball percentage, that’s my go-to.

But every now and then, and I honestly should have regressed this as I saw it, but I thought what you said was really cool about the negative fantasy points and it’s got my mind going, “There’s probably some kind of a way where you can build a model with fantasy points that would apply to handicapping as well as fantasy baseball.” So I might endeavor into that and if you would maybe oblige and I could pick your brain over the off season, that’d be a fun one to develop.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m telling you it absolutely correlates. No doubt about it. There was a time where I was so focused, where all my shows were fantasy and I bet on the side and actually, the data provider who I use for my DFS stuff and lineup optimizer and all the stuff, we created a way where you could find advantages based on fantasy outcomes and it worked. So it’s useful.

Anything’s useful. Any piece of information is useful, but you can see, “Well, hey, he got shelled by this team so they see it pretty well off his hand.”

I know Assad he’s certainly not Greg Maddux but I have him. It’s a 671 weighted OPS by the way for Assad, 973 for Chris Flexen. So I got a couple plays in this one. I’m taking the Cubs double result at -105, locking that in for the show and then also locking it in of course as my Basewinner parlay, the Kyle Basewinner parlay. There’s the Basewinner Basewinner parlay and then my Basewinner parlay. And I got the Orioles run line in the first five and the Cubs run line in the first five. And that’s at +224.

All right, now it is time for the Q&A.

I’m still thinking about the Wagner group playing basketball. [inaudible 00:37:02]-

Spreadapedia:

That’s such a good joke.

Kyle Purviance:

Or football. Were they playing football?

Spreadapedia:

Can’t believe.

Kyle Purviance:

They play football?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, Wagner versus Navy. Can’t believe I missed it.

Kyle Purviance:

And that’s a matchup too because those are specially trained forces. Then we got our Navy, like Wagner versus Navy. That could be a good little… I still say the Navy is going to be a -350 favorite obviously, but nonetheless, Go, America, you have to say that.

But nonetheless, I digress.

Our first question comes from Ponies Picks and I call him that because it says his last name I can’t pronounce it. It’s Mitch Kjeseth maybe? But a great viewer of the show. We love you and we appreciate the questions.

His first question is, “Game one Yankees props both Stanton and Torres at four to one for a home run today. Worth taking one?”

The Yankees are facing off… Why can’t I remember? Oh, yes, against Kutter Crawford and… Or is it game one-

Basewinner:

The bet I think in the first game is Nick Pivetta, Kyle.

Kyle Purviance:

Right. Nick Pivetta.

Basewinner:

I’ve got to double check. That’s what I have in my model at least. So yeah, Pivetta.

Kyle Purviance:

I will say this. Over the last two years, he’s given up an exponentially higher OPS to left-handed hitters than righty. So I’d be looking more for a lefty, just a 672 weighted OPS against righty. So for me, eh. Maybe Stanton at four to one, I don’t hate that, but I’m not pulling the trigger on that. What do you think, Base winner?

Basewinner:

It’s tough. This is a guy that you look at ISO power stuff. Pivetta is not good from an ISO power standpoint, but his strikeout percentage 33% over his last 150 played appearances, Stuff+ 99 percentile. So for me, there’s just too many conflicting numbers there. When there’s conflicting numbers, it’s like I don’t know what to do, I’m not going to play it, and I don’t want to give advice on it because I guess he could probably strike out 30% of the guys but somebody can hit a home run. So for me, it would be a no play.

Kyle Purviance:

My bad. Ponies Picks, “It’s Jeseth. It’s silent K. It’s Norwegian.” Just like my family’s last name is Jongkind from Holland with the silent J. So that makes a ton of sense.

Jay, any thoughts on this?

For me, really, I don’t like touching anything in doubleheaders for the most part. I just… When I see doubleheader, I almost immediately move on. I just want absolutely nothing to do with it. What do you think, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

I prefer the seven inning doubleheaders that they had. Those were more exploitable. These I find more boring, less interesting. So yeah, I tend to stay away. I got nothing on these today.

Kyle Purviance:

Next question comes from Kev DiBiase, “Better run line play today. The Cubs over the Rockies or the Astros over the As?”

It’s interesting. I like the Cubs obviously. We like the Astros obviously. I don’t know. Maybe put it in a parlay. What do you think, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Always good opportunity to take a run line with a opposing team at Coors. You could always lay minus one and a half, you could lay minus two and a half. That’s where my attention would be between those two.

Kyle Purviance:

What do you think? Which run line do you like more here? I’m trying to pull up the price for you, Basewinner, right now, but they made me rethought on-

Basewinner:

That’s an easy question for me because I’m playing the Astros. So yeah, I think the Astros are going to do it. That’s what I think.

Kyle Purviance:

Let me see. The Cubs on the run line -125. The Astros on the run line are -145. So I don’t know. I actually don’t mind them both. I wouldn’t mind parlaying them together, get a little action. In fact, if we parlayed those together, if we got a little risky. Scared money don’t make money.

Let’s see what that price is if we were to parlay the two run lines together.

Oh, did I log out? I don’t know, it’s not letting me do it now. Son of a bitch. Well, I was trying to do it, but now it says I logged in with a different account, but I don’t think that I did. Da da da da.

Nonetheless. Parlay them together. I don’t mind that. I bet you get a good price on that.

Let’s get to the next question. Any… Okay, here we go. It comes from That_1_Dude and it says, “Any side lanes on Pivetta versus Vasquez in game one this afternoon?”

No, I’m not backing Nick Pivetta. I’m telling you that right now. That’s just not something anybody who’s ever made money doing baseball. Backing Nick Pivetta is not really a great strategy in my view.

Like I said, double headers, I just stay away from. There’s plenty of other games to play. I don’t want nothing to do with the doubleheaders, especially out in the American League East. No, thank you.

What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

I’m kind of the same way as a rule. Sometimes, I’ll play a doubleheader, but not usually.

I think for me the way it’s modeled, you play the over here, good hitting teams the way it’s modeled. Pitchers for me are about average in the model and… I don’t know. I just think that if I had to play it, I would play the over here, but I don’t think I’m going to play this game personally.

Kyle Purviance:

Shout out to Dick Knotts. Run line parlay would’ve been +28. Thank you so much. +208 on that. I appreciate you helping me out and getting that number for me. Thank you, brother.

And I don’t mind that price, two to one on two big favorites on the run line. I don’t hate that price.

Jay, I know we talked about this. Any thoughts on that first game in terms of a side or a total or anything?

Spreadapedia:

No. Can’t say I got a play there.

Kyle Purviance:

I like how the cameraman have to follow Jay around as he just leans back like, “At this time of the show, I will be located over here.” That’s fricking funny.

Our next question from Damian Edwards. Got a three to one parlay question here. “Thoughts on Reds-Brewers first five parlay at three to one. Or is it better off playing this as a single bet?” What do you think, Jay? Reds are facing off today against… Who am I… Am I missing it? I don’t think I-

Spreadapedia:

You’re going to be better off single bet there. You obviously get the positive variance with the parlay, but single bet’s the way to go. That’s how you’re going to make money long term.

Kyle Purviance:

Let me see who’s pitch. It’s Brandon Williamson on the mound for the Reds, Joey Wentz for the Tigers.

I don’t know. I guess I like Williamson a little bit more than Wentz off the top of my head. I don’t know what the Basewinner model says.

Spreadapedia:

Every game’s a must win game for…

Kyle Purviance:

Cincinnati.

Spreadapedia:

For the Reds at this point. I don’t know. I take the Reds here I guess.

Kyle Purviance:

And then from Milwaukee, you’ve got Freddy Peralta on the mound against JT Chargois and Jason’s Miami Marlins. What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Nope. Do you remember that… Oh gosh. Was it Biggie? My car go 160 swiftly, wreck it, buy a new one. You remember that one?

Kyle Purviance:

Oh, yeah. Of course. Okay. Yeah. Yeah.

Basewinner:

Every time I see this Chargois I think Chargois 160, wreck it, buy a new one. I don’t know. That’s what I’m thinking right now.

But as far as [inaudible 00:44:04]-

Kyle Purviance:

Escargot, share car go, I get it. Yeah, yeah.

Basewinner:

Yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

[inaudible 00:44:07].

Basewinner:

Remember that one?

I have the Brewer’s price -205 on the full game and Peralta is at 42.7 strikeout percentage last 150. So I was like that was something I looked at to maybe put in a parlay.

But I am looking at Peralta’s Stuff+ and it’s 42nd percentile. So there’s something in the last 30 days that’s not clicking. And so I’m not going to make a play on that.

And if I had to make a play on Detroit, I’ve got Detroit. Gosh… I was going to say Carson Wentz but it’s not Carson Wentz, it’s Joey Wentz. I got it at -142. But obviously I didn’t make a play on it. I’m not a fan of Williamson, not a fan of Wentz. I’m not a fan really of the Detroit offense but nevertheless that’s how I got it price. I stayed away personally from both games guys.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah, that one’s a little bit tough for me.

Our next question, we’re going to have to put some thought into this and I don’t mind, it’s a fun question.

Gboxer says, “I need a five or six money line parlay today.”

So I’m going to throw it to one of you guys. I’m going to put the parlay together so I get to put you guys on the spot while I get to secretly put one together. Who wants to go first on the six leg parlay?

Spreadapedia:

Why do you need this specifically today?

Kyle Purviance:

He just wants it. Gboxer wants it.

Spreadapedia:

What do you like-

Kyle Purviance:

The heart wants what the heart wants, Jay. There’s a reason I get drunk and hit up my horrible ex-girlfriend at 2:00 AM to come give me a handy. It’s because the heart wants it at 2:00 AM. Okay?

Spreadapedia:

But you need to win it because they’re coming to repossess the car if you don’t win or what?

Kyle Purviance:

I hope not. We never want that. We will remind you. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. This is supposed to be fun. If you’re stressed out like, “Uh-oh, if I lose this bet, Little Timmy’s not going to have a sandwich.” Don’t do it. Stop. Do something else. You know what I mean? But maybe he just needs it for fun. Okay? So he needs it for fun. So let’s build one.

I’m going to take… I like Washington. Let’s add some value and get Washington at +125 on the money line were you got about-

Spreadapedia:

How many is that? Six or five or what?

Kyle Purviance:

Five or six, yeah.

It’s not letting me put parlays together right here. I don’t understand what’s happening here. I’m having trouble with the website, but I would say Washington for some value at +125.

Spreadapedia:

Washington, Arizona, San Diego, Tampa, Cincinnati a hundred pay is 4089.

Kyle Purviance:

I’m going to say I don’t know the number. Maybe someone in the chat box can help me.

Nats, I’ll take. That’s leg one.

I will take the Cubs as leg two.

I will take the Astros as leg three.

I’ll take the Mariners as leg four.

The Orioles as leg five.

And that’s it. Five legger right there. So if you guys can all remember that, throw that in. I bet you get a good price on that. Give us the five-star whale play lock of the day. Yeah, come on, guys. Give us a five star-

Basewinner:

You’re not letting me do my parlay. I just spent a bunch of time and then you hit me, you jerk.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay, okay. Okay. [inaudible 00:47:09].

Basewinner:

Okay. I mixed it up.

Washington, Colorado, Padres, Astros, and I can’t have Washington twice. See that? I fouled it up, but okay, so I’m going to take that out. Now, I’m trying to think out what I did. Sorry, come back [inaudible 00:47:29].

Kyle Purviance:

[inaudible 00:47:30].

Basewinner:

Yeah, yeah.

Kyle Purviance:

He broke us.

So Ed asked… So I was just trying to find the number.

So if I did my parlay Houston, the Mariners, the Orioles, the Cubs, and the Nationals on the money line. I don’t know what that would pay but it’s basically plus 1000.

Basewinner:

I got it. This is a 36 to one parlay.

Kyle Purviance:

Okay.

Basewinner:

Washington, Colorado, Padres, Giants, and Houston.

Kyle Purviance:

There we go. There we go. 36 to one.

David Stearns hired as president of baseball operations of the New York Metropolitan. Some good news for the good guys. There we go. I like that.

The studio got this-

Spreadapedia:

Actually, that’s kind of a big deal. I’m surprised they announced it this early but I guess they made an offer so compelling that they just said, “Fuck it. Let’s announce it now.”

Kyle Purviance:

Love it. I love that.

So there you go. There’s our five leg parlays for you guys. Hopefully, something like that cash is…

Of course, remember, there’s always going to be one of those teams that let you down. When it does hit, it’s fun, but just keep in mind that’s not your serious way of doing things and that’s not how you should typically do it. But nonetheless, we just want to throw that in there.

Our next question from Raven Ron, “You guys feeling the run line on the Mariners today?” So it’s Bryan Woo for the Mariners, Patrick Sandoval on the mound for the Angels.

I just had the run line right in front of my face. The run line right now is minus one and a half at even money.

Yeah, I actually don’t hate it. I think the Mariners are exponentially better than the Angels right now. I like how they profile too against the left-handed pitching. Julio Rodriguez, absolutely on fire. I don’t mind that ranges run line at all. What do you think, Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Well, my model has it at -178. So it’s close to the market.

A couple of things with Woo good Stuff+ 75th percentile, bad strikeout percentage last 150, 16% raw in the 12 percentile. So I’m going to shy away from this game. There’s really too many conflicting numbers in my opinion.

Kyle Purviance:

What do you think about this one, Jay? It’s Mariners or nothing for me. And you hear the rumors now that the Angels are open to trading Mike Trout. Not good out there [inaudible 00:49:41].

Spreadapedia:

Well, the Trout trade’s not happening before the off season. That doesn’t [inaudible 00:49:44]-

Kyle Purviance:

Right. But it’s still something that sticks in your… Right? It sticks with the team and your head. Now you’re talking about trading the player who has been up until his teammate took the mantle, the best player in baseball over the last 10 years or so, and now they’re talking about trading him. It looks like Ohtani probably won’t resign. So I wonder what the morale-

Spreadapedia:

Probably won’t resign.

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. The morale in Anaheim can’t be great right now in my view.

Spreadapedia:

I agree. But they go out and win a game like they did last night. That’s the problem with predicting morale is you never really know what you’re dealing with. It’s easy to assume but it’s much harder to actually know what’s going on.

That reason and the fact that it’s about -200, I didn’t play it, but-

Kyle Purviance:

Well, he’s asking about the run line. If you take the run line, it’s even money.

Spreadapedia:

Oh. No. I’m not playing the run line either.

Kyle Purviance:

No run line there. And if you know, like Basewinner says, when you assume, you know what you do, you make an ass out of you and me. Right? That’s the old saying.

Next question from annanake, “Okay, I got Braves, Dodgers, plus Betts, Freeman, Acuña, Albies to get one hit at +1000. The question is, what are the odds I make it out with my cash from the Mexican canteena I’m at if this pays off?”

Okay, well, it’s a great question. I’m hoping you make it out of that canteena, but hey, stay there as long as you want and stay till close and see what the landscape looks like around the bar. You might be able to meet a friend. That’s what I would say.

What do you think, Bdub? I don’t mind Betts, Freeman, Acuña-

Basewinner:

There’s a couple of things there. First of all, what’s the bet again, Kyle?

Kyle Purviance:

So it says, “Braves-Dodgers plus Betts, Freeman, Acuña, Albies to get one hit.” So I guess he’s taking the Braves to win, the Dodgers to win, and then Betts, Freeman, Acuña, Albies to all get one hit and he parlayed that together at +1000.

Basewinner:

Yeah, I think that he’s going to have a challenge hitting that bet. I wouldn’t bet against a wheeler neither-

Kyle Purviance:

I would need better odds.

Basewinner:

Yeah. So I wouldn’t make the bet.

But I think that the more intriguing part of the handicap is making it out of a Mexican cantina. And I think of all the people in the world you could ask the host of our show would be definitely an expert on that.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep. I’ve had some times in Mexican cantinas. Gosh, didn’t we just talk about Tijuana yesterday? I’ve done… Oh, I was talking about that with my friends. But I’ve done some bad things for $20 in Tijuana back in the early 2000s. Let’s just put it that way. It is a miracle that all my organs are still attached. Let’s put it that way.

Jay, any thoughts on that hit prop there with that game?

Spreadapedia:

One of the guys probably lets you down somewhere, I don’t know who, but when you got that many legs, usually you’re going to come up one short.

Kyle Purviance:

Yep.

First of all, I want to say thank you to everybody, 137 people are watching live right now on a Tuesday during football season. We really appreciate you guys. Don’t forget to hit that like button. Hit the subscribe button.

Yeah. Senior frogs, I’m not leaving. If I’m leaving Senior Frogs, it’s because I met someone and we got somewhere to go early but usually, especially the ones in Tijuana, they’ll have those rooms on the top of the bar and you can go get one of those private rooms and you can be in and out in 20 minutes depending on how things are going.

Basewinner:

I’ve got a question for you, a serious question. Did you ever get robbed in Tijuana?

Kyle Purviance:

Never. I’ve been robbed in Vegas. The last time I went, I was a total mark. I’ve wore this white suit. I won a shit ton playing blackjack and then I ended up getting some party favors from… It was when you still had to wear a mask and my mask fell in. So I was standing there by the trash can smoking a cigarette and they watched you. You had to keep your mask on in between drags.

And I’m standing there smoking, my mask fell off into the trash can, and I’m like, “Oh, shit.” Right? So I go to reach in to get it and this girl comes up, gorgeous girl. She’s like, “I saw everything. Don’t do that. I have an extra mask I’ll give you.”

And then I ended up making friends with her, taking her to my room. Woke up in the morning, cell phone’s gone, bank card’s gone, poker chips are gone, party favors are gone. I did it to myself. Should have put…

Let that be a lesson to you. You bring a chick back to your room and bang her on the 48th floor of The Palazzo, put your stuff in a safe. Okay? Put your stuff in a safe.

It ended up being fine, but nonetheless it was a walk of shame in my buddy’s room like, “Hey, I have a situation here. I got a bit of a situation. I got to cancel my bank cards.”

But yeah, nonetheless, so be careful.

They’re never robbed in Tijuana though. No. I always had a good time in Tijuana. Not that I can remember.

Anyways, our last question of the day, it comes from the guys in the back, it’s for our guy, Basewinner, and then we’ll get to best bets today. “What are Basewinner’s top three rappers of all time?” The guys backstage want to know.

Basewinner:

Well, I’d like Flo Rida. I like Nelly and… Tone Loc’s… That’s up there, right? I would say that those guys are right there at the top three. Yep.

Kyle Purviance:

Interesting.

Jay, who are your three favorite rappers?

Spreadapedia:

Can we come back to this tomorrow?

Kyle Purviance:

Yeah. What do you have to listen to some rap to see?

I know mine. Biggie, 2Pac and Eminem. I love Eminem. Always have, always will.

Spreadapedia:

My… It’s-

Kyle Purviance:

Those are good choices. Sure.

Spreadapedia:

Those are just very obvious answers. I could just be like, “Yeah, Dr. Dre,” whatever. I don’t know.

Kyle Purviance:

Dr. Dre. Yeah.

Spreadapedia:

Ask me tomorrow. I need time. I need introspection to answer this.

Basewinner:

A good question. Who asked that? That was a good question

Kyle Purviance:

Bruno. Bruno asked that. They say they would 100% think you were a Vanilla Ice fan.

Basewinner:

I Like vanilla. I like, “Ice ice baby, all right, stop-

Kyle Purviance:

Who doesn’t?

Basewinner:

… collaborate and listen. Ice is back with a brand new invention. Something grab a hold of me tightly, throw like a harpoon daily and nightly. Will it never stop? Yo, I don’t know. Turn out the light and I blow to the extreme I rock a mic like a vandal. Light up a stage and wax the a chump like a candle.” Boom.

Kyle Purviance:

Bonus Basewinner raps on a Tuesday.

Darrell Turner asked what my opinion is on guys dating OnlyFans models nowadays.

I say get in and get half the profits. I thought about making one honestly when I was with my ex. Maybe we should just film ourselves doing it and put it on OnlyFans and make some money without our faces on it. Why not? So no, I say-

Spreadapedia:

I like that you think people would just sign up for it.

Kyle Purviance:

I don’t know. All I got to say is love who you love. So yeah, if they want to a date OnlyFans model, hell yeah. Why the hell not? That’s cool. It’s a flex now. She’s going to cheat on you obviously. You’ll never be able to trust her. So enjoy living with high levels of anxiety. But nonetheless, love who you love. Have some fun with it. Who the hell cares?

Let’s go over best bets and get you out of here on a Tuesday.

My Basewinner parlay for the day, Baltimore and the Cubs first five run line plus 224. The Basewinner parlay is the Texas Rangers first five and the Astros full game at +140. And of course, Jay is on the Nats +125, Orioles -189, the Orioles team total over five and a half, and the Diamondbacks on the money line.

We remind you guys right here after the show head over to our NCAA football channel, Gary, Parker, and the guys are going to be breakout. I believe Corbie’s going to be on that show today. So go support Corbie Cheeks on the NCAA football show that will be coming up right now in two minutes. So we got to get you out of here.

From myself, Basewinner, spread, the entire crew, thank you all so, so much for watching. A great show, great chat box and good luck on all your future wagers.