MLB Picks Today [September 13th] MLB Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds

Corbie Craig:

Not Reds, I don’t think so. It’ll be an interesting next couple weeks, but I don’t know. I think baseball’s kind of shaped up into the bottom of the barrel I don’t really think has a chance to win it all and the kind of just the same top looks good as always. This Braves team terrifies me. It is tough to see anybody sticking through an entire series with the Braves. I say that and Spencer Strider gets absolutely nuked, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that offensively, they look great.

Jay, in the National League, kind of a tighter race. In the American League, you’ve got your four teams right there, Toronto, Seattle, Texas, Tampa Bay. The Rangers all of a sudden have won four straight, they’re only one back now of the Astros, two back in the win column, tied in the loss column. What do we think? So there’s no shot any of these teams from Boston down and the Padres down make any kind of run, right? I think we know what teams are battling for it now, right?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I think we can safely say there’s four teams for three spots in the American Wild Card race. In the National League it’s more like six teams for three spots at this point. The Reds still have a chance, only one game out, Dbacks kind of going to be their main competition. Cubs all of a sudden look more solid down the stretch, but I think the big race is still the whole Rangers versus Mariners versus Jays, essentially for one spot. All of a sudden the Rangers go from division favorite back to potentially not making the playoffs, but don’t forget, the Astros just lost a series to the Oakland A’s, who are already eliminated from contention and Rangers only one game back. So all of a sudden this whole thing with the Astros, you throw them in there, someone’s not making the playoffs and it could be the Astros, it could be the Rangers. Something crazy’s going to happen down the stretch.

Honestly, I hope it’s the Mariners. Just get them the hell out of here, you know what I mean? I am not feeling teams from Seattle.

Spreadapedia:

This actually becomes one of the most fun parts of baseball down the stretch, the last couple games when everything’s up in the air and it comes down to a couple different things. It’ll be a lot of fun.

Hey, someone did say yesterday, by the way, “I don’t know why, I feel there’s value on the A’s at +240 because I like JP Sears,” and lo and behold, even a broken clock is right twice a day, as they say. But nonetheless, I wish I would’ve done the A’s as a show play instead of the other teams. Isn’t that weird? You can back great players, great teams, and the one you should have backed was of course Triple A’s. What do you got to add, Corbie? I can see it turning, I can see your wheels turning.

Corbie Craig:

So we all talk about how bad Oakland’s been, and don’t get me wrong, they have been, they don’t even have the worst record in baseball right now. The Royals have 45 losses. My brain was turning because one of my bets from earlier this year, which can’t win but it came very close, is I took Rockies to have the worst record in the league nine to one. They have 52 wins and the Royals have 45, so it was close. I mean, it shouldn’t have been so close for Kansas City and Oakland to have played as bad as they did to start the season, but I’ll take it. I think the Rockies are a dumpster fire organization, I’ll probably bet the same thing next year.

Yeah, and it is kind of surprising because how long were we sitting here talking about the Royals were kind scary and they were trying hard and they kept beating teams? Then all of a sudden you and you’re look like, oh, shit. They have a worse record than the A’s do. The A’s beating up on the Astros, I absolutely love that. One more thing here about baseball, they finally shut down Yu Darvish for the Padres. I’m starting to see teams shut some guys down and it’s like, didn’t they wait for a little while? Ohtani, that should have been shut down weeks ago. Yu darvish, you should have been shut down. Now we’ve got Max Scherzer, he’s hurt. I don’t know, why are these teams who are out of it letting these star players play? Why risk it when you know have no shot? I just don’t get it.

Spreadapedia:

Well, you have to until you actually have no shot, then you can start doing stuff like that, but you can’t shut a guy down before you’re mathematically eliminated. It looks bad to the fans. The other issue is you shut a guy like Yu Darvish down early, you’re asking the bullpen guys to pick up more innings. Other people have to actually pitch the innings, so there’s actual logistical reasons why you don’t do it.

Shout out to the chat box, first of all, we love you guys out there. You are what drives the show. JR says that I’m his idol, so first of all, you need to pick better idols because I’m a terrible idol to have. I would recommend someone else, but we really appreciate you guys. Don’t forget to hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. Head over to BetUStv.com/odds to follow along. Once you see the play you like, the double result you like, the better MLB odds you like, go over to BetUStv.com/join and get in the action. We’ve only got three games on our docket today, so be sure you get your questions in the chat box and at the end of the show, at the Q and A, we will do our best to get to those questions.

Fezick asks, “Why don’t we bet against Colorado every damn road game?” and that’s a great question. So Colorado is terrible on the road, but every time I bet against the Rockies, I seem to get burned. Like yesterday, couldn’t get the Cubs double result, so all sorts of things there. Of course we remind you, at the top of the hour after this show, immediately following this show, the guys will be on the college football show. Corbie, you on that show today? Corbie will be with the college football show today, so support Corbie Cheeks over there as he gives out the college football weather, and of course that’s at the BetUS TV college football channel. So go support Gary, Corbie, and Parker. Is Parker with you guys today? Gary, Corbie, and Parker?

Corbie Craig:

No, Gary had a baby. Gary had a baby, so I’m taking his spot for the week.

Okay, so Gary had a baby.

Corbie Craig:

He didn’t have a baby.

Congratulations to Gary Segers.

Corbie Craig:

It wasn’t him, it was his wife.

He’s a special man. He’s a man of many talents.

Spreadapedia:

Thank you for clarifying that, Corbie.

He’s a man of many talents. Yeah, I was going to call him and just ask him how he’s feeling. But no, shout out to Gary and congratulations to Gary, and make sure you support the guys over there on the college football show. Let’s go over the records very, very briefly. Just flash it. I am just on a downward spiral. I need a win today. There we go, Kevin gets it. Let’s get to the first game on the docket, 913, 914. We’ve got Taj Bradley and the Rays at -120, Dallas Keuchel and the Twins at +110. Total of 8.5 with a little bit of juice to the over at -120. We all three have a play, I added one late. Look, my bottom line is, and I’ve lost on this a couple times, I’m fading Dallas Keuchel until the end and I’m not even going to worry about the jinx.

Dallas Keuchel’s garbage. I don’t know how he’s getting hitters out, it’s usually them swinging at bad pitches. This guy should not be pitching in the major leagues. Taj Bradley I don’t think is exponentially better by any stretch of the imagination, but I think any live body is better than Dallas Keuchel out there. So I’m taking the Rays double result at +125. The run line in the first five’s at +105, if you want to go that route, but I’m going to take the plus money here. I’m not paying any juice the rest of the baseball season, that’s just end of story. If I’m making a bet, it’s going to have a plus number by it. Just baseball’s crazy and there’s no way I’m chasing juice, so I’m going to take the Rays double result here at +125. Corbie, what do you got on this one?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I’m chasing juice. I don’t know how many plus money things I’ve taken all year, so I like the Rays moneyline here. Again, we’ve faded Dallas Keuchel twice now, the last two times he’s pitched I’ve been on the show and I’ve faded him. He’s looked okay and I’m not buying it by any means. He has a 5 ERA, which doesn’t mean much, but he also has a 5 SIERA, which means I think that his ERA is probably relative to where it should be. 7% swinging strike rate, he doesn’t do very much very good. 88 mile per hour drop off to 84, so you’re not fooling anybody with that, and has just been able to get the ground ball pitches.

The issue is the Rays offense. I mean, I don’t see very many names that impressed me by any means. They only have two guys over a .270 expected batting average, Yandy Diaz who will be playing in some adult male pain today, I don’t know how he’s back in the lineup. If you’ll saw his injury why he left yesterday, you’ll know what I mean, but I think it was a testicular contusion. He got hit in the nuts and he’s back in today. But overall, don’t think the Twins are good. Think Taj Bradley’s pretty good, 3.75 SIERA. I talked about this early in the year, I think that anytime that he’s not behind Glasnow, he becomes a better pitcher and I enjoy backing him here. Really cheap price. Kind of a creepy price, I would say.

Agreed.

Corbie Craig:

I had this in the 140s and I will lay it and it’s all good. So I’ll take the Rays moneyline -120 for the sake of the show.

Yeah, Jay, I thought this was a little short too when I first looked at it. Actually, you guys kind of brought my attention to it because I was laying flat on my back on muscle relaxers doing my plays last night. I’ve had a testicular contusion or two, usually self-inflicted and usually worth it. But speaking of juice, not only this game, Jay, and I know you have a play on it, but is there anything less surprising, did you see this huge story and article, they’re breaking down the biogenesis, there’s more people being named? Is there anything less surprising than The Big Show, Paul White, being named in a steroid? They’re so surprised that pro wrestlers 10 years ago are sucking this shit down in the locker room? What are you talking about? Of course they’re doing that.

Spreadapedia:

None of that’s surprising. I haven’t read it yet. I saw it was on the ESPN front page. Does it name new players and stuff? Is it-

Apparently. i haven’t had a chance to read it. I tried to peruse through real quickly and the one name I was able to catch was The Big Show, Paul White, and some tennis player.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, I mean that’s like saying-

Oh and Shannon Briggs, the old heavy…. You remember Shannon Briggs, the heavyweight boxer, mid-level type guy?

Spreadapedia:

That’s like saying water’s wet, that a guy that was seven feet tall named The Big Show was abusing drugs to be large. Okay, yeah.

Yeah, and then when it came out, he’s like, “I never did that. I have an underlying condition. It would be dangerous.” Dude, they have footage of you just eating it backstage like it’s candy, just give it a rest. Of course you took it.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, wrestling’s pretty funny.

I love wrestling. I love it. All the carney lifestyle just cracks me up, man.

Spreadapedia:

But I bet I did bet the Rays here, I think you can get -119 or so right now. The other bet in this game I like, it’s not on the sheet, but if you can get 8.5 on the under at +105, I think you’re getting a good price. If you want to lay under 8.5 at +105, it’s good number.

I’m hoping the Rays just go over. I just need a nice, easy, stress-free win. Go up five nothing in the fourth inning and cruise to a victory. But I think we’re all three on the Rays here. Look, it’s an .842 weight OPS for Dallas Keuchel, .720 for Taj Bradley, not world beater by any stretch. But look, until the end of time, until the end of the year, every time Dallas Keuchel pitches, unless it’s maybe against the A’s, I’m fading Dallas Keuchel. So for purposes of the show, we all three like the Rays today. You two got the Rays on the money line at -120, I’m going to take the double result at +125.

Let’s head to the next game on the docket 905, 906. Spencer Strider and the Braves sitting at -176, Cristopher Dirty Sanchez and the Phillies at +156. Total of nine with a little bit of juice to the under at -115. So none of us have an official play on this one. Look, are we getting a shorter price on Strider because of that last start? I mean, it’s nothing, it’s not super short by any stretch, but we’ve been getting used to seeing Strider at two to one, 2.5 to one. We’re getting -176 coming off a start where he might’ve pitched his way out of the Cy Young race, but today he’s got a shot to really put himself back in there, right? You had Snell, Snell’s pitching today, you have Snell, Strider, and Gallen all on the mound. This could be a get right spot for Strider, I guess, against a good team like the Phillies. What do you think in this one, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

Just the way I think, I would bet against all the Cy Young starters today, just to see what happens for my own enjoyment. I don’t have a ton of money on either of these Cy races. Cole’s basically on his victory tour in the AL this season, but with Strider, he’s literally 120 to 1 at some books right now to win the Cy Young. That’s such a price, they’re basically begging you to bet it.

They really are.

Spreadapedia:

They’re like, come on, guys, all season you were in at 5 to 1, at 7 to 1, at 10 to 1, at 12 to 1. Now, we’re offering 120 and you’re not in? That’s how they get you, is like, come on, bet more, which I get. I totally understand, but he;d need to finish the season on such a huge run to really make that even a shot. We’re talking perfect game sort of season ending, otherwise it’s Snell with Steele on the outside. Although, today you’ve got three guys going, somebody could do something, somebody could blow up. Something’s going to change.

I mean, 120 to 1, I mean, I made a bet, was it last week we talked where it was 75 to 1 and I put a little sprinkle down. I don’t know how I don’t do the 120 to 1. I don’t know. What do you think, Corbie, on this one and those Spencer Strider odds? That’s a little ridiculous, right?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, mark hits it nail on head. He said, “I’m all in.” If I could find him 120 to 1, I’m taking it and I’m going to lose again. This is what happened with my Ohtani MVP futures last year, they knew that Aaron and Judge had to win that thing and they would just give you just ridiculous prices. I’m seeing 6 to 1. Yeah, Blake Snell’s, what, -200 at this point, which is… I don’t know, I am a hater. But yeah, I mean, Strider definitely looked bad last performance, so I completely understand. You’re starting to see his strikeout props go down, too. There’s 8.5, +120 this morning is where it opened. It’s at -120 at this point, so wouldn’t lay it, but this is a guy that we saw in the tens basically all year. So to get 8.5 at plus money, by all means. I’m actively looking, I got a 93 to 1, I’ll probably bet that.

Is he that far out? Really, is he that far out? I don’t think he is. How could he possibly be that far out?

Corbie Craig:

It’s one of those best that Jason was talking about. I sit on a lot, way too much, 5 to 1, 7 to 1, 10 to 1, and it’s like, all right, if we’re going down with the ship, let me just put a few steak dinners on a 92 to 1. Then if it hits, everyone at BetUS will remember this day. When it doesn’t, I hope that you don’t remember this day at all.

Forget this day completely. I’m just saying, man, I think you’re right. If we’re going down with the ship, we’re not going to be like the captain of the Olympic, AKA the Titanic. We’re not going to do that, we’re not jumping off before everyone else, we’re sinking down with the ship. My goodness, 93 to 1.

Corbie Craig:

I’m locked in.

I mean, yeah, that’s something that’s got to happen.

Corbie Craig:

I got it. The second issue is if you’re taking this on local accounts and you win, let’s just say you win, I’m not getting paid. They’re not going to pay me this.

Spreadapedia:

Well, no, this isn’t a local number. This is big, big book numbers.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, unfortunately-

Yeah, do be careful about that. If you go in there and throw 500 bucks-

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, unfortunately one of us three did not do that.

If you throw 500 bucks at your local book and you hit a 93 to 1, don’t count on getting your money right away. Let’s just put it that way, don’t count on it. But I think it’s crazy not to, I think a little bit of sprinkle, it is the ultimate buy low spot on Spencer Strider. I think we’re at that point where we’re buying as low… I mean, unless he absolutely implodes today, I think we’re buying pretty low on Strider today. I think that’s the moral of the story in this game. No official play on the show here, but a good one between the Braves and the Phillies. If I had to lean one way, I’m going to back Strider today. I think I lean that way. The Braves offense is just too good, Cristopher Sanchez is in for a long, long day. Every pitcher is that faces off against that Braves lineup.

Jay, you’ve got to be getting kind of excited. I mean, I know Ronald Acuna is probably the runaway National League MVP, but I know you had a big future number on Matt Olson, who how is he not considered when he’s just tied a Braves team record with 51 home runs? You don’t think Matt Olson gets any consideration at all?

Spreadapedia:

I mean, it’s kind of funny you mention it because we’re talking about the huge number for Strider, but you can get Matt Olson 200 to 1 for MVP.

He’s got 51 home runs.

Spreadapedia:

It kind of sucks because that’s just going to be another L on my sheet, is Matt Olson for MVP. But in reality, I have to just kind of be happy with my futures betting process and I’ll revisit it at the end of the year, like I always do, but Matt Olson was a great bet. He’s played amazing all season. Unfortunately, Ronald Acuna is his own teammate and that’s going to be the end of that. I bet Gunnar Henderson early, I didn’t really waver off that, and my Marlins bet, that’s really going to kill me. I think I got two wins left to that under. But the Marlins, just their record in one run games has been extraordinary this year. Sometimes baseball’s weird, but MVP Matt Olson, I think 200 to 1, I’m not even biting on that.

Interesting. That’s very, very interesting.

Spreadapedia:

I want him to win, though. I mean, it’d be a lot of money, I’d be really happy, but it’s not happening.

51 home runs and not even close to being considered.

Spreadapedia:

He might not even get second place votes at 51 home runs right now.

Yeah, because of the season Mookie Betts has had, it’s tough to not put him in the top two.

Spreadapedia:

Don’t forget Freddie Freeman, I mean Freddie Freeman just sets some Dodgers records. The one bet I do have that’s alive is Freddie Freeman most hits, and he’s fighting with Ronald Acuna for most hits in MLB, but I think he’s close to setting a Dodgers record for doubles or something. But yeah, it’s Acuna 196, Freeman 194, so I am invested in that down the stretch. I’ve got 10 to 1 on Freeman.

So Bobby Hill asked us to do a little three leg parlay and Corbie just says, “No,” I love that, in the chat. I just found that to be wildly funny. We’re getting to our last game on the docket after this and then we’re going to go to the Q and A, so make sure you get your questions in, and yes, we will do a three leg parlay. Corbie’s just being an ass, which I thought was really funny, by the way. Keep that up, that made me laugh. Last game on the docket, 907, 908. Got Gallen and the Dbacks at -145, Joey Lucchesi and the Mets at +130. Total of 8.5, juice to the under at -120. Corbie, let’s start with you here. Look, I’m going to back Zac Gallen today. I prefer I’m at home, so I’m kind of bummed that he’s on the road for this game, but coming off a shutout performance in his last start, Zac Gallen looked fantastic.

Joey Lucchesi, I know he is not getting torched, but it’s coming, okay? The Diamondbacks are not great against lefties, don’t get me wrong, but this is one we’ve talked about how they kind of neutered the double result price differential, not on this one. So in this one you’ve got the Diamondbacks at +105, I believe, or -105 on the run line in the first five, and the double result is sitting at +140. I’m going to back Gallen over Lucchesi today. I like it quite a bit sitting at +140, so that’s the play I did today. What do you thinking this one, Gallen versus Lucchesi, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, his two primary pitches both are the exact same speed, which is just never a good look. then his only velocity differential is the curveball, which has been hit at basically a .300 expected batting average. So I don’t think that Lucchesi’s very good. Zac Gallen, I hope he gets shelled for the sake of my Spencer Strider bets, I hope everybody gets shelled, but I don’t imagine that it’ll happen versus a Mets lineup who just, I mean, they’re not good. They don’t have a single guy over a .270 expected batting average, Nimmo at .262 is their best batter at current, which just isn’t a good look. I’m not a big fan of the Diamondbacks lineup, but they project better than the Mets.

For the price, I think it’s really a price to back Zac Gallen, who no matter what you say, if you want him to get hit or not, he’s still got good stuff. 26% strikeout rate, .250 expected batting average, which is a lot higher than I thought it would be, but he’s looked good versus this lineup, a .151 expected batting average versus lineup. So probably fine, good price to action fading a guy who throws a 90 mile per hour sinker basically all of his pitches, so feel good there.

Yeah, Jay, look for me, I think I’m just getting a decent sized pitching advantage here. I like the Diamondbacks lineup more. I like the Diamondbacks bullpen maybe just slightly. The Mets bullpen’s not great, neither team has a great bullpen. The Diamondbacks are playing for something, they have a lot more motivation here. What am I missing? I think +140 is a great price here on the double result today.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, Diamondbacks would be the only way I would bet this game. Pretty obvious that the Mets, like I keep saying, don’t necessarily have an incentive to win. They’re going to continue to compete, but they’re not necessarily trying to win. I think you’ve got to go with Diamondbacks here.

Yeah, I like the Diamondbacks quite a bit. I’m going to take the pitching advantage here, the lineup advantage, the motivation advantage. I’m going to take it all, put it up into a little ball. I wanted to make a Stepbrothers joke. Do you remember when she said, “I want to put you into a little ball. Then when I feel something in there, I’m going to know that you’re crawling inside of me.” It’s just a beautiful part of the show when he is telling John C Reilly she wants to feel his curly hair tickle. That’s how I want today for my Diamondbacks, we’re going to take them at +140 and make that official on the show today. Jay’s taking the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at -145.

Let’s get to the Q and A because we’ve got some questions here, some good ones. So our first one is on Dallas Keuchel, it comes from Mel, says, “Thoughts on Dallas Keuchel over 14.5 outs? He has hit this in every single start at home, where he has been surprisingly reliable.” Look, I hope he doesn’t get to that. My thought is that he doesn’t make it to that and the Rays kind of shell him a little bit, but if you’re getting a good number, I don’t know the price on that, but if you’re getting a good number, it’s not crazy to think that they let him go through five innings before they go to that bullpen. They’ve been letting him do it at home so far. What do you think about that, Jay, Keuchel over 14.5 outs?

Spreadapedia:

He is going to go as long as he can go. I don’t want to watch it, I don’t want to bet on it, I don’t want to have money on it. It’s just one of those things that’s like, it’s not fun to have money on Dallas Keuchel and have to have him do something. So good luck if that’s what you’re doing, but not for me.

Yeah, I’d much prefer going against Dallas Keuchel. What do you think about this one, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I’m seeing -145, I wouldn’t lay that juice.

No. No way in hell. No way in hell.

Corbie Craig:

If you could find in the 20s, I would be okay with it. He doesn’t really have to go too deep in the games because he’s been getting a lot of contact for ground balls, which is fine. Also, this Rays lineup, I talked about earlier, there’s nothing that just is super impressive by this Rays lineup. It wouldn’t surprise me if first three innings he’s pretty clean-scaped and then can grind out to the fifth inning, but definitely not laying 145 and not playing 15.5 either.

Hey, did we not address, didn’t Wainwright get the win yesterday? He did. Adam Wainwright finally got a win because we took the Orioles.

Spreadapedia:

You know, it’s really funny, I think I bet on Wainwright three, four games in a row, either to win or his over strike out. Cost me a good amount of my losses backing Wainwright. Then finally I back the Os against Wainwright yesterday laying 186 on the Os and the team total over, so that’s another three units I lose. Wainwright has cost me a lot of money this year, so that sucks.

I’m getting sick of Adam Wainwright. I’m over that nonsense with Adam Wainwright. Our next question from Damien Edwards, “Thoughts on Marlon’s first five at +130?” The Marlins today are taking on Milwaukee. Marlins have Braxton Garrett and the Brewers have Trevor Megill, outcast from the New York Mets. I actually don’t hate that. I’m not a big Megill backer, I think you’re getting an okay price. Not something I jumped on, I’m probably not betting it, but I think I would lean the plus money there with Braxton Garrett. What do you think, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I would tend to agree. I just don’t like the Spurs offense, it’s been the exact same story all year. This total interested me, it’s 7.5 juiced up. I think I would play a 7.5 to the over.

Is Megill going to pitch more than one or two innings? I don’t think so.

Corbie Craig:

I’m not entirely sure.

He’s only thrown two, one, and one in his last three games.

Corbie Craig:

I’m not entirely sure, I didn’t dive into-

Oh, “That’s his brother,” Ed Blust says. So there’s Taylor Megill and Trevor Megill, I see. There’s two different Megills and they’re messing with my brain here. So it’s not the Mets outcast, this is a different Megill, so it’s an opener, it looks like. Let me get my facts straight.

Corbie Craig:

Nonetheless, this first five total pushed down to 3.5 this morning for a second. If you can get a 3.5 Braxton Garrett versus anybody who’s not Gerrit Cole, basically, I don’t think Gerrit should be getting 3.5s basically ever, no matter who the offense is, in Brewers Stadium, that’s too low. Four, I’m laying off. So it’s a neutral game for me, but if this was to tick down just a little bit, I would better an over.

Very interesting on that one. Jay, what are your thoughts here on Braxton Garrett +130 against that Brewers team today in the first five?

Spreadapedia:

I mean, I hope the Marlins lose every game the rest of the season, that’s all I’ve got going for me with the Marlins. But Braxton Garrett’s pretty good, Corbie kind has laid out a couple times this year what his deal is. I don’t know, doesn’t bother me. If you want to take the Marlins in the first five today, they’ll be competitive. They’ll likely remain competitive, if only because it’s going to cost me money.

Yeah, that’s an interesting one here, but like I told you, I’m not paying any damn juice the rest of the year. I refuse until postseason time, it’s just not going to happen. Our next question from Bobby Hill, “Can you guys each do a parlay pick today, just a little three legger? Yesterday was fun and almost hit.” So I don’t know what the price will be on this, you’ll have to look up the price because every time I try to do that, it messes with me when I’ve got all this stuff up, but I’ll take the Rays on the moneyline, I’ll take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline, like we talked about, and I need one more today. Maybe the Padres with Snell on the mound against… No, Ryan Pepiot has been pretty good. Let’s go Rays, Diamondbacks, and let’s go with the… It’s tough. Let’s go with the Orioles, I think they bounce back again against the Cardinals. That Braun guy for the Cardinals is not very good, so I’ll take Orioles, Rays, Dbacks, three leg, money leg parlay. What do you got, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

I got no parlay, but I’ll tell you what teaser numbers I like for NFL this weekend, if you want.

Sure.

Spreadapedia:

Still working through seeing what’s available, but the 6.5 point teaser, not the 6 point, 6.5 point you can get right now Atlanta at eight, that’s the Falcons at eight, the Texans at eight, the 49ers down to 1.5, Dallas to three, and Pittsburgh to nine. That’s got almost a 1% edge, if you can get at least +325 on a five leg teaser. Not the biggest edge, but it is an edge.

Okay, I like it. Corbie, three leg baseball parlay today?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I think Spread hit the nail on the head. If you want to play-

Am I the only one with the balls to do this? What’s going on here?

Corbie Craig:

If you want to play stupid games, get stupid prizes, at least do it with a teaser in the NFL. That’s the best way you can do it.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, please place the teasers.

Corbie Craig:

I will say, our show for about four months did really good not talk about parlays, except BaseWinner. Then now every question in the chat is, and you see the exact moment of decline of our… There’s a reason.

Spreadapedia:

He also crushes, it’s his thing.

He’s crushing them, yeah.

Spreadapedia:

He wins.

I don’t understand it, but it does.

Corbie Craig:

He’s on four days a week and has half the volume of everybody else. I mean, listen, no, I’m here for it. I’m not saying his in particular, I’m saying when the chat’s turned into five leg parlays, that’s when our demise happened. No, BaseWinner’s holding the anchor of the ship.

The desperation has set in, Ed Blust is right. You know, we’re late in the year, the desperation sets in. It’s just what it is. It’s what it is, corbie Cheeks.

Corbie Craig:

I’ll go my three leg will be Rays. Yeah, Rays, a good lunch, and a quality dinner, and then you’ll be set.

Boo, boo. Sorry. Well, I’m a man of the people, and Bobby Hill is right, parlays are preseason long shots, that’s what they are, but they can be a little bit of fun.

Corbie Craig:

They’re a little different.

They’re a little different, they can be a lot of fun. I like that Rays, Dbacks, and Orioles one. I don’t know what the number is on that, but I think that one’s got a decent shot tonight. Let’s check our next question here from Darryl Turner, “Any opinions on Tigers moneyline, Nats under, Cubs under, and Dodgers under parlay?” Jesus, that’s probably not going to hit, that’d be my thought. The Tigers moneyline, let’s see. I don’t even know. I haven’t even looked at the Tiger game. Oh yeah, Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound against Connor Phillips, who is supposed to be pretty good, My buddy, who’s a big time Reds fan, loves this Connor Phillips kid. I think he was saying he led AAA in strikeouts this year or something like that. He absolutely loves Connor Phillips. I don’t know. I prefer to bet against the Reds when they’re facing a lefty, so I don’t hate that. The Nats, Cubs under, and Dodgers under, good luck. You’re rooting for a lot of unders there. I don’t know, any thoughts on that, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

No, I don’t.

That’s just too much. That just made my brain want to go, no, show over. That’s what it did.

Corbie Craig:

The funniest thing of all that is BetUS’s poll was, “Will quality Dinner be Chick-fil-A for Corbie?”

I said yes. I answered yes.

Corbie Craig:

The answer is probably yes.

Spreadapedia:

I actually have a teaser that looks like it might have a stupid edge, but I got to actually work on it for one second. Give me a minute, I’ll tell you if I got a really good one.

Okay. Does it involve the Tigers, the Nats, and the Cubs?

Spreadapedia:

No, it’s a teaser.

You’re talking football? We’re going football?

Spreadapedia:

Football, yeah.

Okay. I wish you could do that in baseball, right? Can I tease six runs the other way? That’d be fantastic. I mean, come on. Our next question comes from the guys backstage and they’re asking me, am I a John Cena fan or a John Cena hater? That’s tough. I don’t watch wrestling anymore. I used to watch it back in the day. When Cena first came out and he was doing the raps with the chain, I loved it. I will say this, the one thing that bothers me about John Cena is when you watch a John Cena match, you can hear him calling the moves. He’s not sly about communicating with the other wrestlers, it’s really annoying. He’ll be like, “Yep, throw me into the ropes.” You’re like, dude, you need shut the hell up. You can’t do that. But listen, for young kids and people who are still wrestling fans, if you hate John Cena, then you just hate the company, because the only reason you have it going on, the only reason you’re still huge, John Cena is a massive part of what you guys do.

So I don’t know if I’m a John Cena hater, shout out to him for getting one of those twins. Those twins were smoke shows, so good on him. Young John Cena, for sure I like. The newer Magoo, PG John Cena, whatever. I think if you want wrestling to continue, you’ve got to root for that, so that would be my view on John Cena.

Let’s get to the next question from PhillyLiverpoolFC, “Thoughts on Twins, Rays, and Ms/Angels?” We’ve talked about the Twins and the Rays, obviously. That was the first game we went over and we all like the Rays today. Mariners/Angels is another one we have not talked about. So we have Luis Castile on the mound today for the Mariners and have the Angels even announced a pitcher? I don’t have an Angels pitcher, let me double check here. Let me refresh the screen. Yeah, undecided. So my thoughts are how the hell are we supposed to know, because we don’t know who’s pitching for the Angels? On the surface though, Ohtani will probably miss again. I don’t love that lineup for the Angels, Castillo’s been really good against bad teams, so I’d lean the Mariners there probably no matter who they throw on the mound. What do you think, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, without looking at lines, I would assume the same thing. Then I go check what the market is showing and it is looking like Seattle -310 is the best line you can get right now. So at 310, I don’t really care who the Angels pitch, I will not be betting that.

Yeah, I mean, what’s the fun in that? What do you think, Jay? Any thoughts on that? I mean, this is going to start happening more and more as we get near the end of the year, a lot of undecideds.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, that’s sort of one of the things I’ve said before, September baseball can be kind of weird. You get some odd stuff happening with teams as they start dropping out of contention. I want to keep betting against the A’s, I got burned by them this weekend betting on the Guardians a couple times, but it’s not enough to-

Paul Blackburn’s not terrible. Paul Blackburn I think is pitching today, he’s not horrible.

Spreadapedia:

No, he’s fine. He’s acceptable.

He is, but he’s not

Spreadapedia:

Acceptable, as I like to say.

I don’t know. We had a question about Mariners -1.5. I mean, probably that’s the only way you’re going to get value. Probably going to be paying like -145, so I won’t be doing that. But nonetheless, yeah, I don’t know, just stay the hell away from that game. Find out who’s pitching. Unless you could find some derivative, to use Corbie’s word, that gives you some value there, but betting just a -300 favorite on the Mariners, okay, have fun with that in September baseball. If that’s something you like doing, I’ve got these magic beans to sell you that’ll take you right up to the beanstalk. You can climb up there, play the golden harp, maybe see things you haven’t seen on a giant before. I don’t know, rock and roll. Rock and roll.

Next question from Dominic Jefferson, “What’s up, guys? What do you think about the Cubs -185 versus the Rockies? Who gets the wind to take the series?” Look, I like the Cubs against the Rockies today because I like everybody against the Rockies. It’s Ty Blatch on the mound for the Rockies. The problem is, it’s Jameson Taillon-

Spreadapedia:

He’s been good, I think.

Yeah, and it’s Jameson Taillon, who’s had one really good start his last start and then pretty mediocre the rest of the year. I’m not backing Jameson Taillon at -185. What do you think, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

It’s the Rockies, they play well at home, but they’ve already been eliminated and the Cubs are kind of still playing for a playoff spot. So there’s really not very many situations where I’m ever going to want to back a team that’s been eliminated versus a team that’s still in the hunt for a playoff spot. I mean, it’s not to say that it’s never, it’s just my initial reaction is I have no interest on the Rockies in this situation. If anything, it’s going to be Cubs for me.

What do you think about this, Corbie, Jameson Taillon in Coors Field? I’m not backing them at that price.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I’ve been betting the Cubs as of late. I bet the Cubs the other day, they were tied through five hit a home run top of the fifth, two outs, two strikes, home run for me to win a first five, which felt good. It is I think the first memorable, lucky my way of the season. So been backing the Cubs. I think if I was to play this, I would play a Cubs run line. I’m seeing 118, which isn’t awful relative to the amount of runs that are projected to be scored. A lot of the market is in the 190 range for a moneyline. Get 118 at a-run-and-a-half. I think that one run doesn’t happen worth 80 cents, I think it’s closer to like 65 cents, so a pretty good price, 118. Didn’t play it, but do think that would be the way that I would lean with it.

I think that makes sense. I was thinking about my rapper list yesterday, people are asking about our favorite rappers and we’re going to get to that in a moment, I did leave too short off of there. Who’s my guy? I’ve actually partied a little bit with Too Short. I love some NWA. I love me some NWA. Actually, someone was asking for a verse coming up, I got a verse from NWA, we’ll get after it. We’ll get after here on the show.

Spreadapedia:

Oh no, we’re all going to get fired.

Wait, no, we’re going to be fine, maybe. Maybe.

Spreadapedia:

No, we’re all going to be okay, don’t worry.

Isn’t that what makes the show fun, is every time we come on, I might do something to get us all fired? It’s right there, you know what I mean? We’re playing with fire, we’re living on the edge every day.

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, it’s great.

It’s what I like. Don’t live scared. You can’t live scared, people. Our next question from Damien Edwards, “Anyone on the Guardians first five at +150? I like Logan Allen on plus money. Scary bats but worth the risk.” Yeah, and I think they’re playing the… Yeah, it’s the Giants and Kyle Harrison, and I got to tell you, the Guardian’s lineup, a 1.239 waited OPS. Harrison had that fantastic start a couple weeks ago and everyone thought he might be something, but I actually do not hate that play, Guardians first five at +150. I don’t think that the Guardians lineup’s much worse than the Giants, and I certainly don’t think that Harrison is much better than Logan Allen, who by the way has a .765 weighted OPS. My numbers would say that plus money is a good play there. What do you think, Corbie?

Corbie Craig:

I think 150 is a good price. I’m trying to see what I’ve made it. Harrison does have really good strikeout stuff, 13% swinging strike rate. But can you strike out this Guardians team who basically all year has been really good at not allowing that? I don’t know, 150 is too much. This Giants offense, I’m not just a massive lover of their offense and wouldn’t be surprised if this game is tied through five. So to have the upside of 150 and the potential for a tie, I’m not too worried about it. What’s the first five run line? Probably not a good price, but let’s check.

Let’s just check it out. That might be the +150, is what I’m thinking. Yeah, the moneyline’s +125, and so now the run line’s the other way at BetUS, +0.5, -115. But the moneyline at plus… I would just do the money line up +125 and if it ties, you get a push.

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I thought you meant moneyline 150. I wouldn’t play a run line 150. It wouldn’t surprise me if this game was tied through five. Yeah, it’s projected, I mean the total sits a flat four, so wouldn’t be surprised if this is tied. First five plus half-a-run, if you could get to 120 is a good bet. Anything under 120 would be a good bet.

Yeah. What do you think about this, Jay? That’s not a bad price, right?

Spreadapedia:

Yeah, it’s not terrible.

Yeah, +125 on the moneyline I think makes more sense. I’m not seeing the +150, that must be where you can adjust the first five run lines here at BetUStv.com/odds. You can get plus a half run, so the tie you still win at -115. I’m just kidding, we’re going to be here next year. I’m not going to get us fired, give me a break. I’m way too professional for that. Way, way, way too professional for that. Go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.

Corbie Craig:

That first five plus a-half-run 115, one second, I think I might-

It’s not a bad play. Yeah, I like that play.

Corbie Craig:

All right, let’s do it. Kevin, I haven’t won one of these all year, give me the green button.

Didn’t they just tell you to do this before the show? They said, “Corbie, don’t do this. We’re busy as hell today,” but it’s fine. Go ahead, hit the button.

Corbie Craig:

I didn’t listen, but we’re going to do it.

Hit the button, hit the button.

Corbie Craig:

Red button.

Hit the red button.

Corbie Craig:

We’ll figure it out whenever. We don’t have to have it on the sheet, whatever, it doesn’t matter. Give me the Guardians first five plus half-a-run -115. I think that’s a really good price relative to market. Everybody’s at 125 at this point, so we’ll take that. I have not won a live bet yet, so-

Here, let me type it in for you. Oh, wait, Bruno’s doing it. Bruno’s got it.

Corbie Craig:

Good luck.

Yeah, I like that play. Good question. Anytime your question turns into a play for us, that’s fantastic, so we appreciate that. Our next question from Dominic Jefferson, “I was watching yesterday waiting on Spread’s list of favorite rappers. Anyone going to match or top BaseWinner and give us a verse today?” So Corbie, top three rappers of all time.

Corbie Craig:

You don’t want to hear mine.

I want to hear yours, the people want to know.

Corbie Craig:

So I will say, I really like certain things. Like Chick-fil-A, I only eat Chick-fil-a, that’s it, every single day, lunch and dinner. Music’s the same way. I listen to Drake and Mac Miller, that’s all I listen to. I couldn’t tell you another artist, but those two guys, every song. People can hate it and I don’t care, it’s what I listen to.

The people want a verse today. I love NWA, my favorite song by NWA is Chin Check. I don’t know if you guys know that song, Chin Check by NWA.

Spreadapedia:

Of course I do.

My favorite verse in that is, “We cause tragedy, erratically, systematically, in your house without a key. How fucked up that’ll be. That’ll be me and your anatomy, my form of flattery, assault and battery because we’re coming with the street mentality. Straight West Coast Rider Academy, concrete blank that’s my reality. Yeah, that’s right.” There we go. Huh? What do you think?

Corbie Craig:

That was good.

Should I just get out-

Spreadapedia:

I know that song, it was good.

I just did it for the people. I’m no Kevin Silas, okay? I’m not Kevin Silas.

Spreadapedia:

I mean, it might be the best song about home invasion robberies ever written. I don’t know very many other songs written about home invasion robberies. Good beginning of the song, can’t do that anymore though. Can’t do stuff like that, get in too much trouble.

Yeah, you’re not supposed to be doing any of those things. Well, we asked for Corbie’s favorite rappers and he gave it to us. Here we go, Darryl Turner. We’ve got a lot of questions, we’ll get to a couple more and we’ll get you guys out of here to the college football show. Darryl Turner asked, “Also like to get your guys’ opinions on Rangers first five and Red Sox moneyline.” So the Red Sox game, it’s Tanner Houck against… Who the hell’s pitching? Clark Schmidt. It seems like Clark Schmidt is pitching every day we do this damn show, I swear to God. Doesn’t it seem every day, oh, Clark Schmidt?

Corbie Craig:

He does pitch a lot, I will say.

He’s pitching more than anybody. I don’t know there. Both teams not playing for much. Clark Schmidt has been up and down against the Red Sox this year. I prefer the Red Sox lineup. Tanner Houck, he’s had a good outing and a bad outing against the Yankees. I don’t know, that’s a stay away for me. Then the Rangers first five, you’ve got Jordan Montgomery and Yusei Kikuchi. I actually think Kikuchi’s better, I would actually go the other way and play the Blue Jays instead of the Rangers in the first five. What do you think about that, Jay?

Spreadapedia:

I always want to kind of back the Rangers and then I kind of remember that they’ve been in this free fall until just recently, so they’ve kind of been off my card more often than not the last couple days. But I do have my eye on them because I am really interested in what happens with this kind of three-way situation in the AL West.

I’m always interested on what happens in a three-way, let me just tell you that right now. No matter how it’s mixed in, if there’s a three-way, I’m interested. Corbie, what do you think?

Corbie Craig:

Yeah, I’ve talked about Clark Schmidt a few times. I think that his release points are really bad and at some point teams are going to shell on him. I’m trying to pull up his number. I think that he did, for some portion of the season… Maybe he fixed it, let’s see. No, he looks fine. I mean, a 4.04 expected ERA I think is fine. I think he’s a lot worse than that, so would lean towards fading him. This still hasn’t come to fruition, so maybe I’m just wrong and maybe the release points that he’s pitching from aren’t as bad as they look on Baseball Savant. They look miserable. It looks like you can tell exactly what he’s throwing, where he throws it. His breaking stuff is not even close to where he throws his fastball, so I assume at some point hitters are going to pick up on this. It looks like they haven’t a ton, so lean towards the Red Sox.

I’m kind of with Spread, I always backing the Rangers. I think they’re kind of like the Astros, a high explosive type of offense. Talked about it with Dane Dunning on the mound the other day, I just think that they can kind of overcome really bad pitching, but at the same time, the Blue Jays are as much that team. So it’s kind of like a neutral game overall. Really no lean, but would shade towards the Rangers there.

Yeah, that is our show today, guys. We seriously appreciate all the questions, but we got to get Corbie ready for the college football show, we got to get the guys set up for the college football show, so let’s go over our best bets and get you out of here on a Wednesday. Guys, seriously, our chat box, the best in the industry. Don’t forget to hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. We really appreciate you guys so, so much.

So our best bets today, Corbie’s on the Rays moneyline, -120. It’s not on the sheet there, but he also likes that Guardians first five run line at plus half-a-run at -115. I like that quite a bit as well. Jay’s on the Rays at -120, the Dbacks at -145. Of course, I’m on the Rays double result at +125 and the Dbacks double result at +140. Again, thank you guys so, so much for watching. Really, really appreciate it. We’ll be back tomorrow, noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific. Don’t forget to head over to the BetUS TV college football channel, support Corbie and the guys as they break down this week’s action. From myself, Spread, and Corbie, have a great day and good luck on all your future wagers.