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2023 NBA Conference Semifinals Picks [May 12th-14th] NBA Predictions & Basketball Betting Odds

Jay:

What’s up? What’s up everybody? Welcome to another show. Friday edition here of NBA Betting Show from BetUS TV. Guys, I’m your host, Jay Money. We got our guy, pun school, AK Josh. We’ve got our guys Ski Profit as well, man trying to get some cash in this one. As we do every single day you guys, go check us out. Big US sportsbook. Got it up to 25% up to 125% signup bonus, up to 2,500 bucks. Josh, how you doing today my brother? Everything cool with you?

Josh:

Things are good man. Things are good. It’s much better to have me on the show today after Boston won than if they did not win yesterday, that’s for sure. It got sweaty and nervy out there in that second half. I was not a fun person to be around in that third quarter, but they pulled it together. Jason Tatum pulled it together when it mattered down the stretch after a horrible game. We cashed some tickets along the way and I’m pretty sure we had a show sweep yesterday as well. Did we?

Jay:

Yes sir, we did. We did. What about you Ski? Everything cool with you my brother? It was a nice call on that under yesterday went right. Really a nice second half to get that under in that Nuggets Suns. Ski. How you doing my guy?

Ski:

Yeah, I was loving it. So personally, well I went one and oh on the show yesterday with that under. But personally I went three and oh because I had the Nuggets to win the series and I had the Sixers team total under as well. So I was out at the poker table watching the games and I was kind of pissed off when I seen Denver start off how they started because I was like, there’s no way this game is going to stay under. I left, went home. By the time I got home I was like, okay, we’ve got a little chance. Got to the fourth quarter, I’m like, let me just be quiet and sure enough the under got there so I’m happy with my three and oh day yesterday with the one and oh on the show. And like I said, slowly creeping that record that I have that I thought was horrific closer to 500. So let’s try to keep doing that.

Jay:

Let’s keep it going today guys. Let’s take a look at that best bear record and this one coming off a nice little four and oh day. Hopefully we keep it going today my guys. Sitting at 896 total plays, 454 wins, 424 losses as well guys. That’s 28 games over 500. Remember, we’re trying to get to 40 games over 500 so we have more work to do. We’re never satisfied. You see what I’m saying? We’re always, if we’re 30 games over 500 then we’re trying to get to 40. We get to 40, then I’ll say we have to get to 50. You dig what I’m saying? So we’re never being satisfied, always trying to get better every single day. Man, we appreciate everybody for tuning in to the show as well. Let’s try to get to some cash today guys. Let’s go to the first game up in this one.

Let’s head over here to the streets of Miami in this one. We do have the Miami Heat land six points at the house verses the New York Knicks in this one, getting back six points on the road. If you’d like to go the money line route, the Knicks are getting plus 205 on the money line if you think they can force the game seven or you can go with the Miami Heat land minus 250 on the money line if you think they end this series tonight. Over and under sitting at a 207 in this one. We saw the last game. Knicks start to shoot a lot better, play a little bit better at the house. Now they have to take that on the road, right? We’ll see if they can maybe possibly get some foul calls in this one. Maybe push this one to a game seven. We already have one game seven in the Eastern conference. Let’s see if we can get two here. Josh, what do you think happens in this game? Do you think the heat close them out tonight in style?

Josh:

I think they do. I think the Knicks gave everything they had at home to force a game six. I don’t know what’s left in the tank. Thebes ran Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes. They played 48 minutes of tough competitive basketball. I don’t know how you back that up. We saw Grimes as well holding his knee at the end of that game. I’m not sure what the recovery’s going to be like for him in such a short period of time as well, but ultimately I think we just see Miami really lock in and locked down at home. I think this becomes an absolute rock fight of a game. Possessions are going to be minimal. They’re going to be made to work for every single basket out there. And like I said, I don’t know how much New York has left to offer at this point in the series either.

So for me, I took a Knicks team total under in this one at 101 and a half. That one’s probably ticking down now that the line’s moving as well. But I trust Miami’s defense, like I said, to really lock in and to get this job done. I think that’s what they’re going to lean on more so than anything else. Their offense has been efficient throughout this entire series. I think that’s probably going to continue again here. I can understand the line movement towards Miami, although it is getting a little bit aggressive at this point. I don’t think laying the points with the Heat right now is probably the greatest move, but for me I’m pretty comfortable, like I said, riding that Knicks team total under. I don’t think that they’re going to be able to replicate that scoring on the road. We haven’t seen it yet this season and like I said, I’d be pretty surprised to see those players be able to back up after playing, like I said, a couple of them a full 48 minutes last time out.

Jay:

Yeah, they are two young guys though Josh. I’d be a little bit more worried if they were guys in their thirties playing the whole game. Yeah, you’re not going to have much left in the tank. When you’re like 25, 26 years old, you can go back and do that. You see what I’m saying? They could probably play the next day. Grimes did say he just kind of banged his knee. So I mean I’ve banged knees plenty of times. At least that’s not a actual injury, something like a knee sprain. You see what I’m saying? So hopefully Grimes can go.

I’m sorry man, I’m rooting for the Knicks here man. Obviously I need them for the serious parts, plus one and a half on the game, so I need them to win outright. I’ll be a very happy man. It is starting to trickle up to seven, the Heat getting plenty of love. Now Ski, let me ask you this, the Heat were like eight and one against the spread before that last game. Do you think that they could possibly be the team that not necessarily run out of gas, but run out of look in my opinion? We know that they’re the ac, we know that they’ve looked like the number one, I mean they beat the number one seed, right? So in my opinion they flipped to the number one seed once you beat them.

But I just kind of feel like they’ve been getting lucky man. If they’re hitting their threes they can blow out anybody. We saw it in game five. If they’re not making their threes, they can get smacked up. We know the Knicks had got to the line as well Ski. I don’t know, I think seven is too many here. I think the Knicks try to give it everything they’ve got. Their backs are against the wall now, right? So obviously you lose now you’re going home. That’s why you see them playing full 48. Jaylen Brunson said I don’t care, I just wanted to get the win. I wasn’t ready to go home. I don’t think they’re ready to go home Ski. What we doing? The Heat going to take them to smack tee or can the Knicks get the outright win?

Ski:

Well I disagree with the thought of the Heat being lucky. I think that they’re where they are. I mean that was what was said when they made it to the bubble championship, that they were lucky. Here they are. We’re pretty much the same core group of guys. I can’t call it that anymore. Jimmy, playoff Jimmy has been proven year after year. Spolestra, he’s been proven for over a decade I feel like now. So I think they’re in this position just because of those things. This is a team that you can actually trust. And I really, really trust Foster to make adjustments the more the series goes on and I just don’t think you can replicate what the New York Knicks did in that last game.

I’m more agreeing with Josh here on the New York Nicks team total under. Obviously I like the original number that they had up there. I’m sure it’s going down now, probably close to 100, but I just think you’re not going to replicate that. They’re not a good shooting team. They shot what, 38% from three? You’re not going to get all these foul calls in Miami. They shot over 40 free throws in that game. It is not going to happen again here tonight. So the zone defense, the pack in the paint, the making New York play to their weakness, I just don’t think they’re going to be able to make it from the perimeter again. So I would only look towards Miami in this game. I was a late addition to this show so I didn’t have my NBA picks in, but depending on what the number is right now, I may roll with Josh on the New York team total under.

And I’m going to mention this just because I’m sure we have extra time on this show today and I may be on my own. I like Miami at the current price plus 450ish to come out of the East for every reason that I said. They’ve got the best coach left in the conference.

Jay:

Settle down.

Ski:

You’ve got a player that you can trust. I hear you, I get it. You’ve got a player, in my opinion, that I trust more than anybody on the other two teams. Give me Jimmy Butler more than anybody on the Celtics, anybody on the Sixers. And I just really don’t care which one of the teams they face. I think Miami wraps it up tonight. They’re going to have the resting advantage versus one of those teams who’s coming off of a game seven on Sunday. So I expect for them to be very live to take game one. And if they can do that, you’ll even have an opportunity to hedge the price that you get at plus 455. So I think that’s a really good bet right now and throughout the rest of the show I’m going to think about it. I’ll look up the number and see if I join Josh on the team total under.

Jay:

I think the Knicks get the outright win tonight. I think we’re getting another game seven. It’s just what I said, I didn’t bet it, I know I’m invested in this one just on a serious price, but something tells me that this line is moving up to seven and they’re getting hit down quick. You see what I’m saying? So I just feel like it’s a little bit too much of a premium. And obviously, I mean you could have got the Heat, it opened up at minus four and a half. I definitely think you’re getting the ants in the line now guys. I always say, these playoff games, as soon as the previous game is over, the line is out that same night for the next game. Especially if you’re liking a favorite or somebody that you notice that it’s going to be a popular pick, go ahead and get on that.

It’s not even saying that the late line game can’t cash, it’s just that you want to get on the best of the number always. You see what I’m saying? If you’re trying to really make money in this consistently, you always want to get the best of the line. I think it’s getting too high. I think the Knicks are getting no respect and it’s kind of crazy because I feel like they’re actually playing Denver with their backs against the wall. And that’s what we saw in game five. I know this is on the road, I know that they lost both previous games in Miami here, but I still feel like the Knicks are live in this one. Obviously it’s going to take a heroic effort from either Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, somebody, but I think they have the squad, I think they have the dogs on the team to fight with their backs against the wall in this one.

Personally I do think the Heat have been getting a little lucky. It’s all about the threes. If Strus, Gabe Vincent, Lowry, Duncan Robinson are hitting their threes, they’ll win in a blowout. If this is a game where they’re missing them and they’re kind of running out of gas, I could very see the Knicks winning this game outright man. So that’ll be my lean on this game. Always take points. If for insurance I’d lean Knicks plus a six, six and a half or seven, but that’s the only way I could look. Our guy Josh is rocking with the Knicks team total under 100 and a half in this one. And Ski’s leaning towards the same way and the Heat as well in this one guys. So let’s see what happens. Definitely going to be a great game. Let’s see if the Heat can keep it going in this one guys.

Let’s head over here to the next game guys. Let’s go over here to the streets of LA in this one. We do have the Lakers land three points at the house versus the Golden State Warriors in this one. Getting back plus three on the road. If you’d like to go the money line route, the Lakers are land minus 140 on the money line in this game if you think they can end it in six, Lakers in six baby, or if you think the Warriors can push it to game seven. A little conspiracy type fight, you see what I’m saying? We know that this is the series that has the most ratings or whatever. Warriors getting back plus 125 if you think they can get the outright win. Over and under sitting at 220 in this one guys. It did open up at 223 and a half in this one Josh. Come down three points in this pivotal game. We saw some nice unders hitting this series here. Josh, do you think this is another under type of spot sir undertaker?

Josh:

Yeah, I like the unders in this series from last game through to this game and if there’s a game seven I’ll certainly be on it at that point. But it has moved a little bit and I don’t know if I would necessarily recommend buying in at this point in time. Ultimately this might be a pretty cheap number on the Lakers and I’m still thinking about backing them at the minus three here just because it looks like Anthony Davis is going to be fine to play and clear to play and I imagine that if that’s the case then you’re going to get a pretty fair effort from him out there.

But the news surrounding Andrew Wiggins, I think he’s way bigger than what’s being made of at the moment. A rib cartilage fracture seems like a pretty uncomfortable thing and that’s not something you want at any point in the playoffs, especially not if you’re going to have to be guarding LeBron James for basically the duration of the time that he’s out on the floor. Yeah, LeBron’s going to know that. He’ll be as physical as possible. I think we see him being active now trying to get into the paint, trying to post up as well, really put pressure on Wiggins to see exactly what he’s capable of tonight. If that’s the case, I’m not sure the Warriors can hang if Wiggins isn’t 100%. He’s so pivotal to them defensively. He was huge for them last game offensively as well. When he’s able to contribute at that level, that’s what takes this Warriors team to that next level as well.

And we haven’t seen Clay Thompson be able to break out of his funk. We haven’t seen Jordan Poole be able to contribute in a meaningful way. And if Wiggins isn’t able to replicate what he did last game, I don’t know what the Warriors are going to do here. I mean as good as Steph Curry is, he’s not going to be able to beat the Lakers on his own. He’s going to need some help from somewhere else. So yeah, like I said, when all is said and done, I think this might be a little bit cheap on the Lakers. I think a minus three is pretty inviting at this point. So I haven’t bet it yet, but I might still get involved in LA at this point just based on the fact that, like I said, Wiggins not being 100%. He’s far more crucial I think than what the numbers are suggesting right now.

Jay:

Hey, opened up at two as well. I like the way it’s moving. I like the direction. I’ve been saying Lakers in six, that this is going to go the exact same way that the Grizzlies series did. That means you have to close. And that doesn’t mean they’re going to blow them out like they blew the Grizzlies out, but this is game seven for the Lakers here. You can’t go back to San Francisco. I don’t give a damn conspiracy, all that. If you want to go over… So if the Lakers did lose tonight and then you went to game seven, whatever, then you’re only going to have one day of rest before facing the Nuggets as well, whichever team it is. I feel like this is the Lakers series and if it’s the Lakers series and they’re going to win it, it has to be tonight in my opinion man. I don’t care about game saving ratings, none of that. If LeBron’s going to get past him, this has to be the game right here. You have to close it out. I’m on them.

I like the Lakers here Ski. I did take the money line man. I didn’t take the minus three, but for the show I’m on the first half in this one Ski. What are we doing? I think it could be a trifecta spot for the Lakers. They’ve got to come out focused. Their backs are against the wall in this one. AD look, just look at those clips of Shaq and Charles Barkley laughing at your ass, all the memes, Mr. Glass, all that. I think he’s going to see that. I think he’s going to take that personally as well. Like that Jordan clip Ski. What are we doing here my guy? Do you like the Lake show tonight? Both of these are your squads, so which one you going with Ski?

Ski:

Yeah, I feel like I don’t have to talk too much about this game. Y’all covered it pretty good. But like you said, they’re both my squads, I’ll take credit for that. And I’ve gotten every game right so far in this series. So what I like in this one, I agree that Wiggins is extremely important for this Warrior’s team and if he’s not out there, really I lose all faith in that Warrior’s squad. He helps them out a lot defensively and on the offensive end as well obviously. But they need him is what I’m trying to say. And even if he is out there with a fractured rib, I mean is he going to be able to play and bang in a physical game like this? I just don’t have a lot of confidence like that.

Gary Payton II. He’s been a big part of why they were successful the past couple years and he’s not necessarily looking like himself I feel like as well. So I think they’re missing that. Pun also talked about how the other guys pull, et cetera. They’re not really contributing so it’s a situation where you just have, and I get it, he’s a great player, he’s probably my favorite player playing right now, Steph, but it is not enough this time. It just feels like a Warrior squad that is kind of exhausted. They got burnt out with that first seven game series. They’re just not in that same rhythm like they were last year and they’re running into a team that’s just as good as them, running into a team that doesn’t have to depend on one player.

I mean it doesn’t even matter if LeBron goes crazy on offense, they don’t need him to do that. They don’t even need Anthony Davis to go crazy on offense. They just need Anthony Davis to play solid defense, grab the rebounds. There’s plenty of guys who can contribute as far as play making and putting the ball in the basket. We’ve had a Lonnie game, we’ve had a Reaves game, we’ve had a Rui game. Everybody can contribute. So when you get like this and you have Golden State on the road where they’ve been poor all season as well, you have to look towards the Lakers man. The Lakers, this is do or die. You cannot, like Jay said, you cannot go back to Golden State if you expect to win this series. And I’m pretty sure LeBron and everybody knows that.

Now outside of that, I do want to mention the other thing that Jay said there. I think it’s a really big deal. I mean he’s watching, you know he’s watching. He sees everybody laughing and making fun of him and calling him soft, et cetera, et cetera. He’s going to take that personal. Also, he’s the best defensive player in the league and he wasn’t even on the list for defensive player of the year. You’re going to take that personal. You see him taking it personal. He didn’t make any all NBA teams. He’s going to go out there and show those guys tonight and everybody else is going to rally around him and maybe even a little bit more on top of that. You see JaMychal Green maybe didn’t learn from Dylan Brooks that just leave LeBron alone. Don’t go poking the beer. So I think it’s a lot to like for the Lakers tonight. They get the job done and they advance to the Western conference finals.

Jay:

Come on, let’s go. That’s the type of shit that I like to hear Ski. And just one more point for me man. Warriors are 13 and 34 straight up on the road. 13 32 and 1 against the spread as well. That’s not great. And just on one more point, when you go all the way to the NBA finals the year before, you see what I’m saying? Obviously that takes a lot out of you, right? You don’t have as long a summer and your vacations a little longer as well because you’re celebrating with the trophy. We saw Wiggins, we saw everybody celebrating with the trophy. So to come back the next year and replicate that, you came off of a seven game series in the first game, which they had to come back from down two oh as well. So you had to spend a lot of energy and run up and down the floor versus the Kings.

Now this series, I think this is really important, only one day off in between every game. They don’t have the two, three days off. So I just really feel like that one day off is really starting to catch up with the Warriors. Personally I do think that they’re running out of gas. I know a lot of people won’t say it, but I think that they’re running out of gas. That’s why you don’t see the same from Clay, even Steph, Draymond, right? These guys are starting to run out of gas. I think the buck stops here man. Give me the Lakers here. I’ll go official with them for the show in the first half. But I’ll tell you right now, I bet them on the money line as well to win this game guys. I need the Lake show here. I need them here.

And I really do feel like they win this game. I do think that they are the better team. At this point right now they’re the better defensive team, they have more size. This is not Sabonis that you’re going up against. You’ve got AD down there, you’ve got Vanderbilt. And like Ski said, they have a lot of different offensive weapons that they could go to as well. Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, Hachimura, you see what I’m saying? Can’t you forget about LeBron and AD, but they don’t have to be the superheroes here. That’s why I feel like they’re one of the deepest teams left in the playoffs guys. Lakers versus Nuggets this next series hopefully my guys. Give me Lakers in the first half. Minus one and a half. Ski, what you got?

Ski:

No, I just wanted to, I was a fill in on this show so my picks are not, if they’re not on the screen I’m adding them on the sheet so they will be official. I’m on the Lakers on the money line and I’m with Josh on that first game with the Knicks team total under.

Jay:

Let’s go. Let’s go Ski. Lake show today baby. I need them. I need them guys. Let’s get over here to a game seven though here guys. Boss. I mean hey. I’ve got Josh, you can’t wait to talk about this game, right Josh? You’ve got Celtics. Land seven points in game seven as well versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Getting seven points on a road in this one. If you’d like to go the money line route, the Celtics are land minus 275 on the money line if you think that they advance to the Eastern conference finals or you can get back plus 225 with the Philadelphia 76ers if you think that they can get it done and go to the Eastern conference finals.

I think this is really interesting guys. Total sitting at 202 now we know Josh that game seven unders are a real thing, right? They’ve moved the line like 10 points man. It’s almost like they’re almost trying to take all of the value. They know that it’s really the books over adjusting the hell out of it because they know that game sevens go under at a very high rate, right? I think it’s really interesting seeing that total sitting there at 202. I had to double take see if he forgot the one or something. You see what I’m saying? It’s 202 Josh. What do you think about possibly the under here and do you think that you’re still… No bias here Josh! Do you think you’re Celtics… We’ll play like this. Betting man, do you think that they can win by more than seven points?

Josh:

Yeah, look. Let’s push all bias aside here. I think that the reality is the Celtics aren’t going to lose three straight home games to the Philadelphia 76ers. That’s personally how I’m looking at this one. That being said, I can’t lay minus seven in a game seven here regardless of the two teams. If both teams play to their ceiling I do think that the Celtics are the better team, but not by that margin and not in a game seven environment. So there’s a lot of narratives that can be made here. You’ve got another Doc Rivers game seven, you’ve got another James Harden game seven. The Celtics obviously have been here before last season, almost in the exact same manner having gone and won on the road in game six to force this. But look, like I said, I just think that the Celtics have a higher ceiling. I think they’re the deeper team and I don’t see a world where they lose three straight at home. So I’m pretty confident that they get the job done, that they progress to the Eastern conference finals again.

But look, I did bet that under already. I’ve got under 203 and a half. It’s already down to 202 and a half, 202 flat it seems like in some places. I think it’s going to keep going down. I think we saw in game six, that second half, the number of possessions in that game was low. The number of possessions in game seven is going to be even lower. These two teams are just going to absolutely grind out that clock. The sixers have been the slowest team in the playoffs so far. They’re averaging almost, in this series, almost 19 and a half seconds per possession. That’s taking up almost the entire shot clock to get the offensive possession that they want and the look that they want at the end of it all. So that’s going to continue through game seven.

I think Boston’s going to basically do the same here, especially down the stretch that second half things are really going to tighten up and clamp down. I don’t know how much you can trust these role players on the road in this environment to replicate what they’ve been doing. Tyrese Maxey has been terrific in game five, game six specifically. A young player in such a hostile environment, I think there’s some regression coming for him there and like I said, those other guys, De’Anthony Melton, Niang, they’re not going to make their shots in the same way that they have at some points in this series so far. So like I said, everything here screams unders. I’ve already bet the under. I’m on under 203 and a half. I would say this is basically the cutoff for me at this point at 202. But don’t be surprised if we see a 93 88 type of game in this one.

Jay:

But first off, I want to give Tyrese Maxey credit because my guy is a young superstar in the league. He’s one of the fastest guys with the basketball. He can get to the wreck, he can fight through contact, he can hit step back threes. The guy is an absolute baller man. I just wanted to give him some credit. It’s just crazy because yeah, even though they’ve moved the line down so much, I think part of that is them obviously starting Robert Williams, right Ski? We saw the line start to get hit in game six immediately when they announced that Robert Williams was going to start. Basically Mazzulla was going defense over offense, running two bigs out there. It helped against Joel Embiid as well. I really feel like they could change this series here Ski. Do you think that this is too far of an over adjustment on the under or are you still looking towards the under on this one? And do you think seven points is too many for the Suns to lay in this game seven?

Ski:

Well as far as the total is concerned, I don’t think it’s too low. I get that it’s a big adjustment but the game sevens, you know how the atmosphere is going to be and the main star players, they’re going to play damn near every minute of the game. And a situation like that, you might get an early fast start, but more as the game goes on they’re going to start walking that ball up the court because they’re tired and you’re going to see shots start hitting the front of the rim because they have no legs. So I think the total is low for a good reason. I have trouble betting against Boston to pretty much score more than 100 points. Let me pull up their team total here. If the total is 202 and a half, their team total is 104 and a half. That just seems entirely too low. I feel like they’ve cleared that every game except for maybe one in the playoffs.

So if I want to do an under, which I very well may, I’m looking at game sevens, they are 62.5% to the under as far as the entire database and the road teams are averaging less than 93 points. I think we see a motivated Boston team on the defensive end. I think we see them start time lord again, maybe try to play him a little bit more like because he’s going to help them out, contain Joel Embiid. And you do a Sixers team total, under the 98 and a half. I know it’s a low number, but the database tells me that it’s low for a reason and I would trust the Celtics to bring that defense like they did in the last game. If they can do it on the road, I think they can do it at home. So team total.

Jay:

That’s a great point there. That’s a great point there because I do feel like the Celtics path to success… Because the Sixers have a great defense as well, we can’t forget this, right? Even Doc Rivers says he feels like when the Celtics have their best games is when they push the pace versus them. You see what I’m saying? So that’s actually not a bad… So it’s on the Sixers to make the adjustments. I think seven is too many, especially the way Tatum’s taking edibles before the game and shit. I’m not sure what he’s doing. David Brown kind of banged up his knee. I’m starting to get worried about the Celtics. They could definitely win this game, but seven is too many for me to lay, especially with this low total as well. The low total kind of tells us that the dog might have a little bit better chance to win this game with less possession. You see what I’m saying?

So I think it’s real simple. Celtics hitting their threes, they can win in a blowout and this game can easily go over. I feel like if it’s an under game, I think it plays into the hands of the Sixers in my opinion because the Celtics want to run the gun, they want to shoot threes. They were making a ton of them to start that game as well and I’m watching and I’m like, when they stop hitting the threes, that’s when the Sixers took the lead man. So I can’t wait to watch the game saving on Sunday man. On Mother’s Day as well. I’ll be honest though, if I’m betting the game, I’d be looking towards the Sixers plus the seven guys to be honest with you. And I think the odds makers adjusted too much to be honest with you man. So maybe it goes 203 Josh, it goes over the 202, you still cash your underplay.

But like I said, I’m not a total better. I can’t bet an over in the game seven. I can’t do it. But I do think Sixers plus the seven, I think it’s the right side there man. Josh, looking towards the full game under in this one and Ski saying hey if he’s looking at, he’ll bet Sixers team total under in that one. I like that one. I like it my guys.

Let’s get to some A and A in this one. I know we have some great questions in the chat in this one. Guys, first question up, Robert Bruce. I’d like to, let me see, I’ve got to start reading the questions before I decide to go to it man. Do you think Jaylen Brown will sign a… I’m sorry guys, we’ve got to go to the next. We’re talking about questions about these games right here, but Josh, what do you think? Do you think that Jaylen Brown will sign a supermax with [inaudible 00:27:54]?

Josh:

Yeah, zero doubt whatsoever. There’s 100% chance he signs that supermax. What happens from there remains to be seen. If he really wants out they’ll look to move him there, but there’s no way he passes up that supermax contract.

Jay:

I think he might end up on a Rockets Ski. I think he might end up on the Rockets with Udoka. It sounds crazy as hell, but Jaylen Brown’s been very vocal about being the alpha on a team. I think he’s tired of being second to Tatum. If they win… It’s kind of crazy because if they win the championship, that’s even more that he might leave. But I think even if they lose, I don’t know, I think he’s leaving Ski. That’s just what… I think it’s Hawks or Rockets. That’s what I think that’s what he’d try to make happen. Ski, what do you think?

Ski:

I agree with both of you guys. I think that it’s extremely hard to pass up the Supermax. I mean that’s what you’re working so hard for, right? To get all that extra money. So why would you pass it up? At the same time, I agree with you Jay, that he’s like, I’m the best player on this team, I want to go lead my own team. And his old coach is over there on the Rockets, so I can understand why you say that. So with that said, maybe I lean towards what Punt was saying. He signs the supermax and then they figure out the rest after that because you can still get assets for Jaylen Brown if he doesn’t want to be there.

Jay:

Josh, can he get the supermax even if he goes to another team or he has to stay with the Celtics?

Josh:

No he can only sign it with Boston. So that’s what I’m saying. He’s 100% going to sign that, he’s not going to pass up all that extra money. And then if he really wants to force his way out after that, then I’m sure Brad Stevens will come to the table, they’ll try and figure out a way to move him where necessary. But yeah, no NBA player is passing up a supermax. None in this day and age.

Jay:

Hey, I’m signing a supermax, but I’m telling y’all right now y’all better try to find three players for me because I’m not going to be emotionally invested and they can probably get three players back for him as well man. And to be honest, it might change the dynamic of the Celtics as well man. But I’ve just really got this feeling that Jaylen Brown, I know he wants the money and if he goes to Houston, no state taxes there. You see what I’m saying? He’ll have more money. I’m not sure how it is in Atlanta, but I know he’s from Atlanta and I know his old coach, he’s still really close with Udoka. And if he went there, I said, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he ends up on the Rockets and them. But let’s see what happens. I definitely think it could really sway if they lose this game seven or win the championship, I really think they can kind of sway his decision there.

Next question up, Javi Ramirez. How do you guys feel about taking all the star players under points in game seven Josh?

Josh:

Yeah I think so. I mean I haven’t had a look at the exact numbers. They’ll be adjusted as well to be in line with the total. So you’re walking kind of fine line there. At the end of the day I think that the all star players are the ones that are most likely to be able to rise to the occasion. I think it’s the role player unders that are probably going to be the better look for a game seven. They’re the ones that sort of feel that pressure a little bit more. Those shots become a little bit harder to hit and the opportunity to hit them as well sort of shrinks down the stretch of games where ultimately the teams are going to live and die by their best players. The role players are only going to have so much impact in a game seven. So I would look role players unders before I look to all star player unders.

Jay:

And specifically the role players that are playing on the road as well in the game seven. That’s the one, that’s even more, I feel like that’s who you probably want to take some unders. If you could find a Daniel House or some shit Ski. What do you think about taking all star players under your points in game seven?

Ski:

Yeah I would disagree. I mean you can bet a full game under, but I just think the starters are going to play majority of the minutes. So in a situation like that, I don’t want to be betting they’re unders.

Jay:

That’s a fact right there. That’s a fact. I can kind of see what he is saying though. If the total’s going to be going under, it’s going to be less possessions, that means less points for everybody. But what Ski’s saying, you’re going to have these guys playing 40 plus minutes, it’s win or go home. You see what I’m saying? So you kind of have to know which player you think is going to have a bad game. I wouldn’t just probably go with all of them. But our guy Michael in the chat says, what do you guys think about the Miami Heat and under 207 to total Josh?

Josh:

Yeah, I mean I’m on the Knicks team total under, so they’re going to play their part. It just comes down to what Miami are going to do and like you said Jay, there might be a level of regression coming from them from three point range. That said, they’re still going to get their looks as well. So they could score 112 here and all of a sudden it becomes hard to stay under a full game total of 207. But at the same time, if those threes aren’t dropping, there’s not a lot of offense coming from anywhere else and this is one of those games where again, neither team could hit a 100 points like that at the same time. So I lean towards the under. Like I said, the Knicks team total under for me just makes a little bit more sense there.

Jay:

What do you think Ski? What we doing? You like the under 207 in the Heat game?

Ski:

Yeah. I mean one plus one equals two, right? If we like next team total under that means we’re liking Miami Heat and we’re liking the under in the game.

Jay:

That’s a fact. That’s a fact. I lean to the over, I lean to the over Michael, I’m sorry.

Last question up, our guy Mark Holmes. Like any player props in the Lakers game, 80 points. Points and rebounds, damn it. That’s what I like Josh. And I took that personally. You see what I’m saying? Come on AD, get your ass out the wheelchair. Oh that’s why they were making the memes, the glass memes, that he’s already glass. And then he got wheelchaired out. Okay, I see why now. I’m sorry. He’s going to see all this man. AD coming to play. AD going for 40 tonight Josh. Any player props you like in the Lakers game?

Josh:

Yeah, we’ve kind of already spoken about it. I was on it last game incorrectly, but I’ll be back on probably Andrew Wiggins under his points most likely. If he’s genuinely in pain, like I said, they’re going to be asking so much of him defensively. I don’t see how he replicates what he did last game offensively. And he’s going to be in one of those games where I think he might be trying to defer more often than not, than try and put any extra strain or pressure on those ribs. Especially if he’s going to be playing in a lot of discomfort.

Jay:

Nah, that’s a fact there Ski. What do you think? Any player props for the Lakers my guy? The whole team? Whole starting five Ski? What are we doing?

Ski:

Anthony Davis, bet on him to shut everybody up. PRA, rebounds, whatever you want to do. That’s what I would do.

Jay:

I called it. I called it man. Great show my guys. Great show man. It’s time to get out of here. Recap the best best. Let’s try to get some cash. We’re going to take these books to smack city my guys. Bet yes. We love y’all man, but we’re trying to smack y’all up today.

Gosh, our guy Josh rocking with the Knicks team total under 100 and a half points. Give me the Lakers in the first half minus one and a half. I like him full game as well on money line. Lakers versus Nuggets on Tuesday. I’m hoping so man. I hope so. Like our guy Kodak says Ski, I’m so rocking with Knicks team total under 100 and a half. And he’s going with Lakers on the full game money line guys. Let’s make it another one. We’ve got to finish this season 50 games over 500 man. It starts today. Let’s get this cash man.

We appreciate everybody for tuning in. Make sure you guys follow us on Twitter. I’m your host Jay Money. That’s our guy Josh, aka punt school. It’s our guy Ski prophet as well. Like I said, that’s our ats right there on Twitter. Let’s get some cash man. Go check out Bay US Sports Book. Man we love them, but we’re trying to take just a little bit of their money today, but there’s plenty of people losing anyways, see what I’m saying? So we’re just taking a little bit of the loser’s money over there. Y’all have a great day man, great weekend. Let’s get this cash. We appreciate y’all for tuning in and we’re out. We’re back on Monday. Let’s go.

 

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