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NBA Expert Picks and Predictions

Kate Constable:

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Kate Constable:

Good afternoon. Happy Monday. Thanks for kicking your week off here with us at the BetUS TV NBA show, alongside Chris Farley and Alex Christensen, I’m Kate Constable. The NBA is in a bit of trouble, it seems, these last few days, moving forward, lots of COVID cases, tons of players in health and safety protocol. As of yesterday, 15% of the league, it’s about 450 players in the NBA’s health and safety protocol. So, over the weekend, a lot of these games were with players we haven’t heard much of before. So that being said, did you guys have any success in these games or did you bet these games at all, where there were a lot of G league players or rookies playing that we haven’t heard a whole lot of. Chris?

Chris Farley:

Well, yeah, definitely noticed that I have less picks than most days, these days, for the past week, just because of all the COVID concerns and the uncertainty headed up into right up before tip off. Only had two plays Saturday, two plays Sunday, won 1-1 Sunday, 2-0 Saturday. So overall, good weekend. But it, yeah, I’m being more judicious, more cautious than usual because, these lines too, are you’ll get really invested in a game. And then the game will be the postponed, like the Hawks game yesterday. I really thought that the Hawks were in a great spot. And then so, got my money back, of course. But, yeah, you have to be extra cautious these days.

Kate Constable:

Alex, how about you?

Alex Christenson:

Yeah. Pretty similar, right around a 500 weekend for me. Very few plays again, it’s tough to sort of figure these out. I did break my over one month sober streak on the Orlando Magic. Bet them, they not only covered, but won. So you can take advantage of some of these spots. I mean, some of these teams with the bigger names still maybe get a little too much credit. That Brooklyn Nets team, I mean, there was just nobody left there. I mean, they were even worse than the stinking Magic. That’s how bad it was. So, there is some advantage to be had here, but, yeah, caution is the move.

Kate Constable:

Seven games canceled so far. Tonight’s Magic-Raptors has been postponed. But we will move forward with the games that are going on as scheduled tonight. We’ll talk about a couple of those in just a little bit. But first let’s check out our overall record. Things are looking good for us. I’m at 43-37, Alex 36-33, Chris 47-29, grand total 155-132. Solid starts to the season so far.

Kate Constable:

We’ll kick things off today talking about the Oklahoma City Thunder in Memphis tonight to take on the Grizzlies who are a nine point favorite at home, total is at 214. The last outing between these two teams, something the Thunder would probably like to forget. The Grizzlies set an NBA lines record beating OKC by 73. Thunder only scored 79 in that game. So quite the lopsided win for the Grizzlies. Tonight, Alex, Thunder are a nine point dog and you’re thinking they can stay within nine points tonight.

Alex Christenson:

One of the few teams that isn’t really experiencing too many COVID issues. They kind of had their little bit of run here. They only have one name on the injury report. It’s actually kind of silly as you look at the injury report. Everyone’s got at least three, four players. The Thunder only missing one. Look at the Memphis Grizzlies here, just a really tough spot for them tonight from a fatigue schedule standpoint. 3-4, back to back, they played a tough game last night in their loss to Portland. A lot of minutes for guys now.

Alex Christenson:

Kind of devil’s advocate here, I’m just a touch concerned about how poorly the Thunder have done against big men in their last couple games. If you look, a lot of their losses are to teams that have done very well on the boards. This Memphis Grizzlies team can be that kind of team, but with Steven Adams having played 35 plus minutes last night, Jaron Jackson, maybe being a little less physical. I don’t see Brandon Clarke out here tonight. So I think the Thunder can kind of avoid that. I have this game closer to six. So I’m happy to grab the nine points here with the Thunder team, again, that’s actually finally healthy against the Grizzlies team that should just be kind of wiped out from last night.

Kate Constable:

And you add in the motivation factor of this one, absolutely getting embarrassed the last time out between this team. Chris, do you factor that in fairly heavily in tonight’s game?

Chris Farley:

Yeah. You have to factor that somewhat because definitely the OKC Thunder, their history, they don’t want it to be seen as that’s the way that they’re going to face the Grizzlies all year, they’re just going to get blown out. It could be a tiny letdown spot in away for OKC, they got that good win against the Clippers a few days ago. You know, the Grizzlies, definitely a more explosive offense than what they experienced there in LA. So, but you know, I had the Grizzlies on Sunday going up against Portland. Now Portland has won a few in a row, which is always a shocker to me right now, because there’s just not a team in Portland that I want to support.

Chris Farley:

But like Alex said, yeah, OKC, very healthy right now. One of the healthiest teams in the NBA right now, and the healthiest that they’ve been all year. Gilgeous-Alexander is back and producing. Dort is huge for that team. He’s back, significant for them on defense, especially. Grizzly’s just, they always spook me a little bit because this is one of those spots, a tough spot for them again, but they have just kept on winning. They didn’t win last night though. They are 19-12 ATS overall. Interesting game here from a strength versus strength perspective. The Grizzlies is probably pretty well known now, one of the best paint teams in the NBA, one of the best fast break teams in the NBA on offense.

Chris Farley:

OKC though has been very good this year at defending in both of those areas. Although they have had had trouble recently, like Alex noted. So, strength for strength there, and the Grizzlies should be tired heading into this one. So, I think Alex is on the right side. I have Memphis as plus, or sorry, minus six and a half to minus seven here. So, definitely some value in the Thunder, no play for me. But if I had to take a side, I would have to take Thunder.

Kate Constable:

The Grizzlies have been very good without Ja Morant who’s still out again tonight. They’ve covered in 10 of their last 13 and are 10-2 straight up. But Alex is playing the Thunder plus nine tonight in Memphis.

Kate Constable:

The Rockets are in Chicago, excuse me, to take on the Bulls. Bulls are a six and a half point favorite at home. This total sitting at 222 and a half. The Rockets beat the Bulls back on November 24th and that ended their 15 game losing streak. Since that game, the Rockets have gone 8-4. Bulls played last night, got a win over the Lakers, game that went down to the wire. So back to back for them, maybe a fatigue factor here for the Bulls, which, Chris, is that a reason you’re playing the Rockets plus six and a half tonight?

Chris Farley:

Well, yeah. I mean, this is, you’re talking about a tough spot for the Bulls. I mean, that was a tough game yesterday against the Lakers that they pulled out. I had the Bulls minus four and a half in that one. So squeezed that one in there because that was close and that line was rising-

Kate Constable:

Five point win, right?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, yeah. And that line was going up by the hour too. I believe it ended like at minus six and a half or minus seven. So got a little fortunate in that one. But the Rockets too, Rockets coming off a win on Saturday. I had the Rockets in that against the Pistons. Happy to take advantage of that. Christian Wood came back on Saturday too for the team. And he is such a significant difference for the Rockets. You had a plus 12 point differential in that game. Christian Wood, in a lot of games, you’d be hard pressed to find a lot of games where he does not have a plus point differential. Team is just different with him out there. They create better space. He’s significant as a rim protector and on defense and for rebounds and obviously his scoring ability.

Chris Farley:

And I really like, for Houston tonight, that Zack LaVine is out because talk about someone who pushes the fast break and can really disrupt the spacing that the Rockets like to maintain throughout the game. If there’s one player who’s going to do that on the Bulls, it’s Zack LaVine. So I think, him being out, obviously he scores 26 points per game, but I think he just really pushes the pace for the Bulls. So that could settle the Bulls down a little bit. I mean, they have 10 total eligible players for tonight. You know, names like Alfonzo McKinnie are showing up on the court, Tyler Cook. I don’t know who these guys are, but they might have more chances to play. So maybe they’ll play well.

Chris Farley:

But tremendous minutes last night from Chicago stars. I mean DeRozan 34 minutes, Green and Vucevic 35 minutes, Ball and Caruso 38 minutes. And now they’re on a back to back and they play tonight. I know they’re at home, but this is a game, I got the Rockets at plus eight and a half, plus six and a half, a little less value here. But I think this is a much better spot for the Rockets. The Bulls are depleted and Christian Wood is going to be a big difference maker in this game. So I think the right side here is to take Houston, which is always a little scary, because it’s still the Houston Rockets who have come back down to earth. But I think this is a good spot for them to cover.

Kate Constable:

This total is sitting at 222 and a half. I like the under here because of the fatigue factor with the Bulls. I mean DeMar DeRozan, that was his first game out of COVID protocols yesterday. And having played those minutes, I just can’t imagine that these guys, their conditioning is already back up to where it was prior to their 10, 12 day quarantine. So, adding that back to back, the Rockets, I mean they can score, but how many times has Alex bet on a Rockets team total under 100? So, I can’t imagine that the Rockets are going to be blowing the Bulls out of the water tonight and for this game to go extremely high. Alex, you’re also on the under here. Why do you like that?

Alex Christenson:

Yeah, I did think about the Rockets team total under, but I think that the Bulls actually are really going to drive this game down. The Rockets continue to play at a quick pace. And Chris is right, with Christian Wood back in the offense is a lot more dynamic. He gives them a piece in the middle that they just don’t have without him. I think it will be a competitive game, but we’ve seen Chicago control spit pace. And Alex Caruso continues to be one of the most underrated players in the league. With what he can do defensively, he’s going to cause, I think, a ton of trouble tonight for any of those young Houston guards. I think we’re going to see a lot of turnovers tonight.

Alex Christenson:

And Chicago is going to be happy, I think, to kind of play a little slower pace. Let Vucevic kind of take advantage of Wood who, a solid player all around, but defensively, not really one of the very best. And I think you’re right, DeMar DeRozan might be a little tired. We’ll see how some of these guys shoot in their second game back. But I think we’re just looking at kind of an ugly defensive battle here a little bit. It could actually be a pretty quickly paced game, but I just don’t think we’re going to see a lot of scoring here. Shooting should be bad and it just looks like a defensive battle to me. Happy to go under.

Kate Constable:

The under 222 and a half, Alex and I are taking that. Chris is taking the Rockets plus six and a half. The Hornets got blown out in Phoenix last night. The Suns beat them 137-106, worst loss of the year. They’re now an 11 and a half point dog in Utah tonight taking on the Jazz. Total set at 237, the highest total of the season so far. But these are top two teams in offensive rating so it kind of makes sense. Chris, you’re taking the over tonight. Tell me about that.

Chris Farley:

Yeah. That total is sky high, isn’t it, especially compared to what we’ve seen in this early part of the NBA season. But it’s really tough for me to not plan Hornets totals going over at this point. I mean, they’re becoming one of those teams, they remind me of the Wizards of the recent past. We can count on them to score points and put up a good offense and good pace, but can’t count on them for doing much on defense. And the Hornets, over the last 10 games, only two of their last 10 games have not gone over 241 points. Those two games were 216. 4 out of 10 went over 251, and 8 out of 10 went over 241. The last 10 games averaging 242 points per game in their total.

Chris Farley:

So, obviously significantly, most of these Charlotte games are going to the over, 20-11-1. They play fast, they love a fast break and something that a lot of people don’t know about the Hornets, this is one of the best three point shooting teams in the NBA. They’re shooting at 38% so far this year. Now, I’m not excited that they only scored 106 points last night, obviously a tough defensive team in the Suns, and the Suns were off some rest. And I expect the Jazz to play really good defense at home too. But that Hornets defense is just so bad. I mean, even though they only scored 106 points, they allowed the Suns to score what, 137 or something. So, the Jazz were held to 103 points recently against Washington in their last game. I expect better offense at home from the Jazz today. They are number one in offensive efficiency in the NBA. So, if there’s any team that’s going to experience positive regression on offense after a bad game, it’s the Utah Jazz. 15-13-1 ATS to the over for the Jazz as well. So more of their games go to the over.

Chris Farley:

Both of these teams are fairly healthy, I mean, knock on wood nothing happens before these games. But so we have full lineups here. The line is rising. I agree with the movement. I think this game goes into the 240s. And these Hornets can shoot, but they cannot play defense. And I expect the Jazz to put up a ton of points. I think the Jazz team total is like at 224 or something, which is just absurd. So, if the Hornets are contributing to this game offensively, this should fly over the over still.

Kate Constable:

The Hornets didn’t have a great shooting night last night against the Suns. So hopefully a bounce back performance for them tonight in Utah, because I’m also taking the over here. You mentioned the Jazz are first in offensive efficiency, Hornets are dead last. So you can imagine that the Jazz are going to just have a field day offensively, kind of get to their spots and wherever they want to go on the floor. The Hornets best perimeter player, Cody Martin, just entered health and safety protocols on Sunday. So, he is out making this Hornets defense even worse. And then, when you talk about back to back performances, a lot of times you think maybe the scoring goes down a little, teams are tired, but I mean the defense just goes in a lot of those cases. So the over is 5-1 on the second night of a back to back for Charlotte this season. So, better reason to take the over there.

Kate Constable:

And then, Alex, the Jazz have been lost in their last two games. They were an 11 and a half point favorite against the Spurs, nine and a half point favorite against the Wizards, lost both of those games straight up. They’re now at 6-6 straight up as double digit favorites. So you’ve got to believe the Jazz are going to back tonight with a little bit of fire and want to put on a good performance, right?

Alex Christenson:

Yeah, absolutely. I think you guys are absolutely on the right side here at the high total, going over high totals is always a good thing here. It’s a big spread, so we’ve got a possibility of a blowout over here. I think there’s no reason that this game’s going to be slow in any way, shape, or form. The Utah Jazz are going to run around, kind of do anything they want against the Charlotte Hornets team. So, just like Chris said, if you get anything from Charlotte in this game at all, it’s going to be in the 250s. So I think you guys are definitely in the right spot here. It’s just tough for me. I have this number right at like 235, 236. So, a lot of things kind of push me towards the over, but I would need my model to spit out something in the 240s to grab a number this big. So lean your way, I think you guys are definitely on the right side for a lot of reasons. Just not quite there myself.

Kate Constable:

I even thought about taking the Jazz on the spread, but they’ve burned me so many times, that Spurs game, Pacers, earlier this year. I’m done betting Jazz as a double digit favorite. Give me like Jazz minus seven, eight something all day. But double digits were, you guys are going to have to put the stop on me if you ever see me trying to do that again. Counting on you.

Kate Constable:

All right. The Spurs are in LA tonight to take on the Clippers who are a four and a half point favorite. Total set at 217. Paul George is questionable in this one with an elbow injury. Marcus Morris is out with health and safety protocols. Serge Ibaka is probable. He could play, he’s got some personal issues going on. So, that’s up in the air there. But the Clippers are 3-3 when Paul George doesn’t play. So not necessarily a terrible sign for them. Either way, Alex, you are siding with the total on this one taking the over 217.

Alex Christenson:

Yeah, this looks like a game that should be an absolute track meet. You know, a lot of people look at pace and one of my favorite stats to actually look at and shout out to my buddy, Brett, who follows me on Twitter, who helps me out with this, is seconds per possession. The Spurs average a possession every 13.7 seconds, which is staggering. The fastest, the lowest that number gets is like 14, 14.1-ish. To get sub 14 is just outrageous. And which you’ve seen, I think, is something that I missed from Popovich in the last two years. I was a little concerned that maybe his focus was elsewhere, not so much kind of coaching these players. But he’s finally got a team of younger guys who, it just makes more sense. He’s got a lot of good guard play, some solid wings, they’re not trying to focus the ball into any big men. They’re back to getting up and down the floor, running quicker, efficient possessions. The Spurs just look really great.

Alex Christenson:

And the Clippers here have been putting up a lot of points even without Paul George here. And they’re happy to run. I mean, you look at the pace for them, I think it should be a very quick game here. I’ve got it up in the 220s. So at 217, I’m happy to go over. And that’s with Paul George being out. He’s questionable. He might actually play. If he does I think this bumps up into the 220s pretty quickly before game time here. I think this just looks like a really nice spot. You know, if we can get Paul George, it’s very much the cherry on the sundae.

Kate Constable:

Spurs are the ninth worst half court offense in the NBA this season, and the Clippers’ defense is pretty strong. They’ve shown great defensive performances this season. So you can imagine that the Spurs aren’t going to want to get caught too much in that half court set, and they’re really going to want to push the tempo. So good news for you there, Alex. Chris, in terms of the spread here, do you have a lean either way?

Chris Farley:

I don’t have a lean on the spread really. I would just stay away from that. I mean this is a tough one, especially not knowing if Paul George is going to be available in this game. I do think that Paul George could even slow this game down a little bit just because it’s that star player who likes to post up, right, has a kind of methodical shot. So, I mean either way, but I think Alex is on something here. I think this is a really good bet in the over. I mean I put a personal play on it. Officially it’s Alex’s play. But, Alex, I like it. I like it a lot.

Chris Farley:

And here’s one area why I like it a lot is because I think we have an interesting matchup. You know, we think about the Clippers and we think about them as a really great defense, but they’ve really struggled to defend inside the paint this year. They’re allowing 48 and a half points per game inside the paint. Spurs are quietly one of the better teams in the NBA. They are number one in the paint so far this year, 54 points per game. They’re the number two assist team. They’re the number three fast break team. So they have a lot of positive by-signs on their offense, right? So I think this is a team that could have some success. I mean, what Alex said is true. That is staggering that they are under 14 seconds. I need to look into more of those pace factors as well. I think this game goes way over 217. I mean, I don’t want to jinx it, but taken all these factors, I have it in the 220s.

Chris Farley:

This could be kind of a more tired spot for the Spurs after playing Sunday. And what have we said in the past, right? Their weaker unit or the weaker side of the court is going to be the slower or the more tired side. So I expect them to still play well on offense. Maybe they let down a little bit on defense. Clippers off that loss Saturday to the Thunder, so you got to think they’re going to come in here, hot. They come in here wanting to kind of revamp and get some revenge in this one against a beatable team. So I love the overplay here. Paul George, big question mark, but I don’t think it makes a difference. I think the score goes, I think both teams have plenty of success on offense.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well the over is the play here. Alex has taken it at over 217. Questions? Anything on the Kings and Warriors, Alex, any thoughts there?

Alex Christenson:

Yeah, that one was kind of tough. You know, you’ve got a really bad rest spot here for a King’s team. You’ve got a tough spot for the Warriors, a very big spread, it’s 12 points. And it’s not that I don’t think the Warriors can put up that big of a number. It’s just going to be really tough. I had this, I make it 11. So, the spread’s 12. I actually put a little bit of value on the Kings, but I just don’t think my numbers are evaluating kind of the funky spot here for the Kings correctly. The total’s right around 220, 221. I have it at 218, 219. So maybe an under, maybe a King’s team total under if you go scratch that itch, but nothing stuck out to me.

Kate Constable:

Chris, anything there from you?

Chris Farley:

Yeah. Same exact thoughts from me. Like it’s just a big line. You know, the Warriors can cover that. And the only side I would want to go on this game is the Warriors but it’s, I mean, 12 and a half is big. I’ll give another anecdote here since I don’t have much to say about that game, watch and see how the market tries to adjust to Cleveland Cavaliers games moving forward. They are covering 83% of their games right now. I believe the record is 24-5-2. Who would’ve thought that the Cleveland Cavaliers would have that kind of ATS record nearly a third into the NBA season, or I think we are a third into the NBA season. So the market has to, the market is losing way too much on the Cavs, right? The books are losing. So they have to adjust because the Cavs are just winning, winning, winning, beating the spread. So look for that, just moving forward, just maybe higher, more inflated lines on the Cavs in these spots because they’re even covering as a favorite now. They’re 8-0 as a favorite, 8-0-1. So this is a team that keeps on defying the odds, but something has to bend eventually there.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. I believe they’ve covered it in their last 10 total. But yeah, that’s unbelievable to think that the Cavs are the team to do that. Wouldn’t have thought that coming into the season.

Chris Farley:

That’s wild.

Kate Constable:

Another question that I have for you guys is in terms of futures and win totals on the season, when games are postponed, likely they’ll get made up, but… Or even with the rosters. So, like the Nets, is the market doing anything to, I don’t know, compensate for a bunch of G league players playing?

Alex Christenson:

So, a lot of the futures markets you have access to aren’t really affected until the playoffs. If you think about, to win the conference, to win the title, that’s after the playoffs are done. So the market, for the most part, leave those numbers the same. And it’s kind of for two reasons. Number one, when you get to the end, things change. I mean the NBA playoffs is a totally different season. The Nets team we’re watching night to night is going to be different than the one we see in the playoffs. And the second reason is exposure. They just have so much exposure to certain teams. I mean the Lakers could be in line to miss the playoffs. They will still be a top five favorite to win the title simply because the amount of money books will take on some of these big name teams.

Alex Christenson:

I have seen some of the division odds move around, and those, to win your division that happens at the end of the regular season. I don’t know about you guys or if you’ve seen regular season win totals up anywhere, those tend to be rare mid-season. But I haven’t seen them at all for a couple weeks and I think maybe that’s what the adjustment is. So, if you’re looking to take advantage of some of this stuff, look into your division prices and just make sure you’re trying to attack markets that close at the end of the regular season. Again, a lot of this NBA stuff happens as a result of the end of the playoffs. And I think because of that, books are a little slower to overreact to some of this stuff.

Kate Constable:

Okay. Cool. That’s helpful. All right. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today before we close things out. Couple overs here, we’re hoping this Jazz-Charlotte game goes way over. That’s a big number. A couple underdogs, Chris taking the Rockets, Alex taking the Thunder, and one under on the Rockets, two unders on the Rockets and Bulls. Alex and I are both riding with the under in that game.

Kate Constable:

That is all we have for today, gentlemen. Great to start off the week with you. Missed you over the weekend. And we look forward to seeing you all back here tomorrow. Have a good night. And don’t forget to check out our sportsbook. Bye

 

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