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Constable:

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us once again on the BetUS NBA Show. Josh C. here with us, Chris Farley, I’m Kate Constable. Gentlemen, some big news broke in the NBA this morning. Cam Reddish is no longer an Atlanta Hawk. He’s headed to the New York Knicks in exchange for Kevin Knox and a protected first round pick from the Hornets. Surprising. What are your thoughts on this, Josh?

Chahal:

It’s very surprising. I mean, great for New York, really, really great for New York, not just picking up Cam Reddish, being able to move Kevin Knox is also a bonus for them, as well, I think. But the Hawks, yeah, I don’t know. I think you could have got more for him. It seems like a bit of a sell low spot on Cam Reddish, given the way that the season’s panned out, not just for them, but for him individually. I think he has a lot of high upside though, and he is really going to fit in well for New York. Gives them a lot of what they want and need at the moment. Works out for both parties, as well. Obviously, the player wants a bigger role and more responsibility and the ability to sort of sign a proper extension I think the closer to his market value, which he’ll be able to do in New York and probably wasn’t able to do in Atlanta. So yeah, like I said, it kind of makes sense from both parties in that perspective. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense from Atlanta’s point of view.

Chahal:

I don’t think, I see no value in Kevin Knox. I don’t think that that first round pick that is heavily protected is necessarily going to transpire into anything meaningful for them. So yeah, a bit of a head scratcher on their part. Obviously they need to start doing things, I think, to shake things up a little bit, the way that the seasons panned out for them, but could have done more in my opinion is I guess the bottom line in that one.

Constable:

Kevin Knox hasn’t been in the Knicks rotation in like the last two years. So, what kind of value is he going to add to Atlanta that Cam Reddish wasn’t able to? I don’t understand this trade at all. Chris?

Farley:

No, I don’t either. And maybe the Hawks are a little bit in panic mode, or just trying to figure out their season here. I mean I only just recently noticed that we are at the half point of the season, which boy, that really snuck up on me, so I’ve been kind of ignoring the fact that the Hawks are really struggling, just trusting that they’re going to figure it out. But, this is a Hawks team that is really struggling. I mean, I expected them to win last night. That didn’t happen again, without Jimmy Butler on the Heat. Just it’s a good spot there for the Hawks. And they just, they keep having these good spots, and they keep on losing.

Farley:

So, maybe it’s a little bit of pushing the panic mode button, easy for me to say, as the Hawks were kind of trying to figure out their season here. I still have hope that they’ll turn it around. They were one of the most exciting teams to finish the regular season last year, but yeah, Cam Reddish, a developmental player for them, I thought. And then, there he goes out the window. So, that’s a head scratcher for me, too.

Constable:

He’s a pretty good three and D player, got a lot… Upside there. I mean his floor is probably just-

Chahal:

I see no value in Kevin Knox.

Constable:

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us once again on the BetUS NBA Show. Josh C. here with us, Chris Farley, I’m Kate Constable. Gentlemen, some big news broke in the NBA this morning. Cam Reddish is no longer an Atlanta Hawk. He’s headed to the New York Knicks in exchange for Kevin Knox and a protected first round pick from the Hornets. Surprising. What are your thoughts on this, Josh?

Chahal:

It’s very surprising. I mean, great for New York, really, really great for New York, not just picking up Cam Reddish, being able to move Kevin Knox is also a bonus for them, as well, I think. But the Hawks, yeah, I don’t know. I think you could have got more for him. It seems like a bit of a sell low spot on Cam Reddish, given the way that the season’s panned out, not just for them, but for him individually. I think he has a lot of high upside though, and he is really going to fit in well for New York. Gives them a lot of what they want and need at the moment. Works out for both parties, as well. Obviously, the player wants a bigger role and more responsibility and the ability to sort of sign a proper extension I think the closer to his market value, which he’ll be able to do in New York and probably wasn’t able to do in Atlanta. So yeah, like I said, it kind of makes sense from both parties in that perspective. It just doesn’t make a ton of sense from Atlanta’s point of view.

Chahal:

I don’t think, I see no value in Kevin Knox. I don’t think that that first round pick that is heavily protected is necessarily going to transpire into anything meaningful for them. So yeah, a bit of a head scratcher on their part. Obviously they need to start doing things, I think, to shake things up a little bit, the way that the seasons panned out for them, but could have done more in my opinion is I guess the bottom line in that one.

Constable:

Kevin Knox hasn’t been in the Knicks rotation in like the last two years. So, what kind of value is he going to add to Atlanta that Cam Reddish wasn’t able to? I don’t understand this trade at all. Chris?

Farley:

No, I don’t either. And maybe the Hawks are a little bit in panic mode, or just trying to figure out their season here. I mean I only just recently noticed that we are at the half point of the season, which boy, that really snuck up on me, so I’ve been kind of ignoring the fact that the Hawks are really struggling, just trusting that they’re going to figure it out. But, this is a Hawks team that is really struggling. I mean, I expected them to win last night. That didn’t happen again, without Jimmy Butler on the Heat. Just it’s a good spot there for the Hawks. And they just, they keep having these good spots, and they keep on losing.

Farley:

So, maybe it’s a little bit of pushing the panic mode button, easy for me to say, as the Hawks were kind of trying to figure out their season here. I still have hope that they’ll turn it around. They were one of the most exciting teams to finish the regular season last year, but yeah, Cam Reddish, a developmental player for them, I thought. And then, there he goes out the window. So, that’s a head scratcher for me, too.

Constable:

He’s a pretty good three and D player. Got a lot of upside there. I mean, his floor is probably just a very solid three and D player in the NBA, but his ceiling, who knows what that’s going to be? But how much better does he make the Knicks team, especially going back and playing with RJ Barrett? We got the Duke boys back together. It’s going to look good.

Chahal:

Yeah. We can start those Zion rumors again, as well. Right?

Constable:

Well, hopefully the Knicks can pick things up after a couple rough games. They did win last night, beat the Mavs very handedly, so unfortunately for me, Josh, were you on that game last night with me?

Chahal:

Yeah, I was. I was on the Mavs. It wasn’t pretty, but the three point shooting disparity in the first half was a little bit too much for them to overcome, I think. And then obviously in the second half, they never really got going once that lead sort of blew out and ballooned too much. I think it… Was basically all said and done for both sides there. So yeah, it was just a rough start for them, and they weren’t able to really overturn it.

Chahal:

I don’t think I necessarily learned a lot about either team though, in that one, which is a little bit frustrating going forward. I still have a lot of question marks over the Knicks, especially consistency offensively from them. When those shots fall, yeah, they can be good. Obviously they can lean on their defense in those situations, but when those threes aren’t falling for them, they are still severely limited and, sure, Cam Reddish helps, I guess, in an extent it gives them a more consistent shooter from beyond the arc, and his length and athleticism, especially defensively as well, sort of works really well with, the mantra of that team, but aside from that, it’s still the, the same Knicks, I think. And unfortunately for the Mavs, it’s still the same Mavs where yes, they were streaking coming into this game, beat up on some pretty weak opponents, but ultimately I guess, still come undone with their own flaws.

Constable:

Well, one team that came undone yesterday, Chicago Bulls lost by 26 to the Brooklyn Nets. They went into that one favored by a point and a half. The Nets with the big three. I mean, we’ve only seen two games so far this year, but they’re looking pretty good, and they looked exceptionally well last night, Chris.

Farley:

Yeah, I saw your tweet. It would’ve been a fung ame to be at.

Constable:

It’s so fun.

Farley:

At least, in the first half, right?

Constable:

In the first half.

Farley:

But then the Nets started to pull away. Yeah, it’s interesting how easily confident they are after one big win like that. Instantly, too, in the media, you hear all about it. The Nets are still a major contender. Obviously the talent is there, but I’m not convinced because to keep this continuity or lack thereof going throughout the season like this with Kyrie only coming in on certain games, those away games, it’s just going to be tough. They feel like and they look like two different teams sometimes, and that is how good Kyrie is, obviously. He just creates things on the floor that most players can’t, just by his ball movement alone. So, he’s obviously a huge addition for that team when he can play, but he’s not going to be able to do that for the entirety of the season. So, I think it’s important for us to not impulsively start to believe in the Nets across the board here, although it is a good sign for them playing better on the road, and the Chicago Bulls are a great team to blow out. So, it was an impressive win.

Farley:

Chicago Bulls also starting to miss Alex Caruso, I think, a little more than they realize. I mean, he brings defensive intensity too, that they might not have in some situations.

Constable:

And they’re now going to be without Derek Jones, Jr. for four to six weeks. Hyper extended knee yesterday in like the opening seconds of that game. So, unfortunately for him, he’ll be out a little bit. The Nets win though came with Day’Ron Sharp having 20 points in that game. That’s what I liked about that game is Kessler Edwards and Day’Ron Sharp both started, rookies that started, and they both played fantastic because of all of the attention that the big three gathers, that those guys were open and they really knocked down shots and played hard last night.

Chahal:

Yeah. I think they’re really starting to find some consistency in those role players outside of the big three, and that’s what makes them so dangerous. I’m a huge Net believer in the fact that if they are fully healthy, they are for me, undoubtably, the team to beat in the NBA. They are a clear 1A. I think there’s a little bit of a drop off behind them after that. So, if Kyrie’s able to play home games in the playoffs and this situation where they just have to pay a simple fine, and that’s all they need to get him on the floor, I think that the Nets are going to shorten pretty significantly in those futures markets. So, I suggest that have some Nets tickets of sorts in your back pocket before the playoffs do come around, is my advice.

Constable:

Josh, and I learned a little bit more about the fines that the Nets could potentially have to pay if Kyrie Irving plays in home games. We talked about it a little bit yesterday. Chris, if you haven’t heard, the Nets can basically have Kyrie play in home games and just pay a small fine. The first game he plays, $1,000, second game $2,000, third game three, four, 4,000. After four, it just caps off at five grand, that is. At five grand. So, he can play in every home game the rest of the year, it’s just five grand a game, which Kyrie’s making about 400K a game, so he’s losing that if he’s not playing. The simple math, right, you’d think that you could make 395K a game and just pay that fine. Do you think the Nets should do that?

Farley:

So wait, is this money coming out of Kyrie’s pockets?

Constable:

Your mind’s just blown right now, isn’t it?

Farley:

It is. It is. It’s coming out of the Net’s pocket, right? Not Kyrie.

Chahal:

Yeah, but I’m sure like-

Constable:

Brooklyn has to pay it. Yeah.

Chahal:

Exactly. I’m sure if they said to him, “Look, we’re going to take it out of your pay,” like Kate said, the simple math works out, right? 395 is still better than zero.

Constable:

Yeah.

Farley:

Absolutely. I mean, we could talk about Kyrie for this entire show if we want, because he’s one of the most interesting players in the NBA. I mean, I don’t know what’s going to give in this situation here, but Kyrie, just, I don’t know. I mean, I don’t know. I don’t want to proselytize about the highly political subject that is COVID, unfortunately, but you would just think after seeing some of the results that they have on the road, maybe that would be a push Kyrie to change this trajectory of the team. Because, I do think that again, as talented as Kyrie is as a shooter, the way that he can facilitate the ball and create opportunities for open shots is a huge difference that he makes, also in facilitating those players outside of the big three. Durant and Harden have to shoulder such a huge load, and Durant is usually equipped to do that, but in today’s NBA with all the athletes and great shooters, that’s going to be a lot less sustainable when you don’t have an exceptional point guard running the floor like Kyrie. So yeah, I mean, let’s keep on petitioning. Maybe he’ll check out the BetUS Show and he’ll change his mind. I don’t know.

Constable:

Exactly. Yes. We’re really moving the needle there for Kyrie.

Farley:

Yeah.

Constable:

And the Nets have known about this fine, I think, for the entire season, but again, it’s optics, it’s so much more political stuff that we don’t need to get into on here, but I mean, that’s ultimately probably why he hasn’t played as of yet.

Constable:

All right. Let’s kick off the show today talking about tonight’s games. Enough about yesterday’s. And we’ll start with our overall record, as we always do. Yesterday was a pretty good day for us. We went three and no, we one, two, three, four, five, six. Six and five yesterday. Not bad. So, total overall 207-182, looking to add some more wins today. All right. Kicking things off with a matchup of two heavyweights meeting in Milwaukee tonight. The Warriors are in Milwaukee taking on the Bucks. Bucks are one and a half point favorite, total sitting at 223 and a half. Warriors are just two and three in their last five games. They’re coming off of a loss to Memphis. Bucks coming off of two straight losses to the Hornets. So, bit of a get right spot for both teams, potentially. Chris, who do you think has the edge in this one?

Farley:

So, I’m going to give a slight edge to the Bucks in this one, because they are at home off of those two losses. And because especially, because Draymond Green is out of this game again, and we have seen the difference that he makes, especially on defense, when he is not on the floor, and especially in the paint on defense when he’s not on the floor. So, I love the fact that the Bucks are coming off those two losses, but that being said, I am going to play this full game here because we know, and we’ve seen many times, that the Golden State Warriors, now especially probably with Klay Thompson back, if they start slow, they are a tremendous second half team. They’re number one in the NBA in defense in the third and fourth quarters. So, that’s usually when they can really slow down the game, make those defensive adjustments at the half. Few coaches are better than Steve Kerr at doing that.

Farley:

So, I’m going to trust in the Bucks in the first quarter to come out hot. The Bucks all year have been a great first quarter team, but recently they started off a little slow, and that last loss against the Hornets, they started off very slow, and that’s kind of what set the pace for the entire game. Of course, the Hornets can do that to a lot of teams, because they run the floor so fast and they could be so efficient on offense, but Milwaukee coming off those two road losses now at home after three days rest, I think it opens up the [inaudible 00:17:03] of the floor. Like I said, this is a Golden State team who got 58 points scored on them against Memphis in a loss in the paint. That’s half the points that Memphis scored that night. So, I just, listen, this is the tough game to pick. I mean, these are two of the most elite teams in the NBA, but Draymond Green is a difference maker for this team.

Farley:

And now, Grayson Allen is back for the Bucks. The Bucks are starting to slowly get healthier. So, I just think this spot favors the bucks. It’s not that the Warriors are taking a step down in any way, but we also have to think about the effect that Klay Thompson has on this team. Both positive, but nothing in life is completely positive, right? So, they have to work him into the rotation and figure out how to get back to that same Warriors chemistry that they’ve always had, because they’ve had a lot of chemistry pre-Klay Thompson. So, he’s still kind of fitting in there probably still. There are some situations where it’s probably still a little bit uncomfortable for everybody, even though they have one of the best coaches in the game and one of the best leaders in Steph Curry, whereas the bucks at home, I think they come out electric, especially after those two bad losses. So, I’m scared to take the full game on this one, but I’ll take the first quarter on the Bucks at home.

Constable:

Josh, you’re not scared to take the full game on this one, are you?

Chahal:

No, give me the Bucks moneyline here. I think they get it done at home. Obviously like you said, the spot sets up really nicely for them. The Draymond absence is a big one. With him out of the lineup, I come out closer to a minus two. So, not exactly a huge market edge here by any stretch to the imagination, but a couple things that stand out for me from the Warriors’ perspective, obviously while they try to reintegrate Klay into the rotations is Steve Kerr had come out and said that they’re going to test and they’re going to fiddle with the lineups and see what lineups work and don’t work, especially while Draymond’s out, so that when he does come back in, they sort of have a fixed and firmer rotation set, and a 10-man rotation in place.

Chahal:

So, we saw that being the case against Memphis, and a lot of people were critical about certain lineups that went out that day. And you know, at the end of the day, Kerr’s publicly come out and stated the fact that it’s a case of trial and error and testing what does and doesn’t work. So, when you do that against a team like Memphis, you see what the result is, and if you’re going to do that against a team like Milwaukee as well, I think that the result is going to be much the same. The Bucks are just one of those sides who are so well regimented, especially in the regular season, that even with someone like Jrue Holiday out, everyone else is still very much in tune with what their roles and responsibilities are in that team. And, they can pick up the slack pretty easily, I think, across the board.

Chahal:

So, everything for me points to the Bucks here, like I said, I think offensively, they should be able to stretch and space the floor well. They have no natural matchup now for Giannis with Draymond out at that end. The flip side, we’ve seen the warriors offense really stagnate without Draymond there as an extra sort of playmaker, if you will, and I think that extra strain on Steph is what’s basically causing a lot of this slump is that he has had to have the ball in his hands more often than not, and as good as he is in those situations, I think the best version of Steph is when you have him off the ball running off screens, and making life extremely difficult for defenders.

Chahal:

So, I think the Bucks, like I said, a really good spot for them overall. I like the matchup at both ends of the floor. With Draymond out, I’m happy to basically just take them out right here. I wouldn’t be against taking a minus one and a half, but given you can pretty much get them a minus 110, I think it is on the moneyline. That makes too much sense for me to pass up.

Constable:

I’m with you, Josh. I’m going to play the Warriors, as well. It’s hard to figure out different lineups and try new things, especially with Klay Thompson coming back in, but having him only play about 20 minutes, he’s only played 20 minutes these past two games, that number is going to go up. But to be readjusting lineups with a player that’s limited in their minutes right now, that’s also really hard. In terms of Draymond Green being out, he moves the needle a ton for me because he doesn’t show up a ton on stat sheets compared to other big stars, but he does so much offensively in terms of allowing Step Curry to play off the ball, the two of them have played together so much, he knows exactly where and when to find Steph. And if Step’s not open, he’s able to facilitate and hit other players out on the perimeter who can knock down shots. So, without him in the game, this drastically changes the Warrior’s offense for me.

Constable:

And then we also know defensively, he’s a defensive player of the year candidate. He was the one that was supposed to Giannis. So, Giannis hopefully was going to have a big game tonight, but without Draymond in, I really like the Bucks in this one tonight. Their offense, worst offensive rating over these last five games, only scoring about a hundred points. Averaged under 103 of the five. So, I mean, not great there offensively. Steph Curry has also really struggled offensively. So, I don’t know. Chris, does that change your mind at all in terms of wanting to play the full game?

Farley:

Yeah, a little bit. I love everything you guys said, and then just thinking back on the history of these two teams. I mean last year, the Bucks blew them out on one game, and the Warriors won the other game by only one point. But that was a game where Giannis didn’t play, and Draymond Green had a tremendous effect on the defensive end of the floor. So, maybe full game isn’t as scary as I thought. I’m trying to be sneaky with these picks, because a lot of these teams lately, they’re just flailing in the second half. We’ll talk about another team like that later. But you know, first quarter Bucks are pretty darn good.

Farley:

And for what it’s worth, the Warriors have not started off as strong this year. Surprisingly, they’re not in the upper echelon of point scorers in the first half like they usually are. So, it was just an angle, but I like your angles, too.

Constable:

When you guys are adjusting your numbers for different games and kind of trying to find where you have value and see an edge, how have you gone factoring Klay Thompson back into the lineup without having any games to go off of this year? Has that been hard, Josh?

Chahal:

Yeah, really good question. The bottom line is I have absolutely no idea. The first game back, I sort of said to people in the Discord chat that I’m with that I honestly don’t know how to factor in Klay’s return and how to sort of represent that as a number or a value against the spread. And, I’m still sort of struggling to really work that one out, especially like you said, when he is still on a minutes restriction, and his impact is only limited to the time that he is on the court. I think obviously, it’ll become a clearer picture in time, no doubt. Post All-Star break, we’ll have a better understanding of that. But as of right now, it’s probably one of the more difficult things to have to try and navigate.

Chahal:

And you know, you look at that, I think that Grizzlies game is a really good example, because he played his 20 minute cap. He was plus 17 in his minutes on the court. Plus 17 in a game that they lost pretty comfortably is absolutely absurd. But again, it’s just really difficult to work out. How do you adjust your ratings and numbers to that level of impact, but over such a small period of time in a 48 minute game?

Constable:

Yeah, definitely difficult. Obviously, as he starts playing more, gets a couple more games under his belt, that’ll become easier for you guys. But for tonight, we are all on the bucks. Chris is taking them in the first half, I’m taking Bucks minus one and a half, and Josh playing the Bucks moneyline.

Constable:

Los Angeles Clippers, next game we’ll talk about, are in New Orleans, taking on the Pelicans who are a four point favorite at home. Totals 214 and a half. Clippers rallied from down 25 in the second half to beat the Nuggets on Tuesday. So, they’re coming into this one on a two game win streak. Speaking of two game win streaks, the Pelicans have beat the Clippers in their previous two games this season. And I’m going to go ahead and say that they’re going to make it a third straight tonight. Overall, the Clippers, pretty good defensive team, but where their defense really struggles is in the paint and rebounding. They gave up the fourth most points in the paint and the second most rebounds. That doesn’t exactly scream recipe for success for a team that’s going up against Jonas Valanciunas, who’s been averaging 32.5 points and 14 rebounds against the Clippers this season. So, I’m happy to lay the points with the Clippers, with the Pelicans, rather. I’m going to take them minus four. Josh, any thoughts on this game?

Chahal:

Yeah, one of those ones where my numbers say to play the Clippers. I’m kind of closer to a one and a half, but everything I see and all the advantages like you spoke about, particularly rebounding, say that the pelicans are the absolute right side here. So, I haven’t got involved in this one. I think that like you highlighted, especially that rebounding advantage for New Orleans is just too big for LA to overcome. Yes, it was a great win, I think, against Denver, and to come back in the manner that they did. I don’t know if that necessarily speaks more to them or Denver, though. It’s hard to say.

Chahal:

For me, the Pelicans probably the better rounded team and the better balanced team still at the moment. So, I would certainly go that way if I had to pick a side in this one. But like I said, numbers do tell me to play the Clippers, which is why I’m staying away.

Constable:

Clippers are pretty banged up though. Quite a few guys on the injury report. Obviously, Paul George is still out. Chris, do you find any value either side?

Farley:

I actually circled this one this morning. I really thought about making a play on the Pelicans. I think it’s a good spot for them. And, to your point, which you both already made, hashtag rebounding still matters. I mean, that is a stat that a lot of people don’t track or mention as much, but it can make a huge difference in a game like this, and the pelicans, they don’t do too much very well, but they are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA for check of their rebounding rates. Whereas the Clippers are one of the worst. And this game is not going to set up that much better for them. I mean, I think Valanciunas can really eat, right? Brandon Ingram has those long arms, he can get into the paint, and he can score a lot of points.

Farley:

And the Clippers’ last two wins, I think it’s sort of fake news for me. I mean, they do a great job at defending the three, but I mean, the Nuggets shot 12% in that loss against the Clippers. I mean, I don’t know if that’s all on the Clippers defense. The nuggets just had a bad shooting night, and then the Hawks only shot 27%. And obviously the Hawks right now, just a team trying to figure themselves out a little bit.

Farley:

So, the Pelicans aren’t predicated on the three point shot. They’re one of the lower shooting perimeter teams in the league. So, I like the Pelicans in this one, and I mean how often do we get the Pelicans favored? And now the line is even going up a little bit. So, line movement maybe is telling us a little bit something here, too. It’s not on par with numbers, either, but I do like the spot for the Pelicans with all the circumstances and the injuries. I think it’s a sneaky play here on New Orleans at home.

Constable:

Yeah. I’m not really concerned or even really considered the last two wins for the Clippers when thinking about this or thinking that they may be bouncing back and really getting things going. I think the Clippers are really struggling right now, averaging only 43% shooting in their last three outings. And the Pelicans, I didn’t realize this early in the season, but they’re a team that likes to get up and down the floor pretty quickly, and we saw them do that against the Timberwolves the other night. I mean, they scored 128 points in that game. So, I mean, is this more of a team that is just going to outscore you and outrun you versus really play good defense? Because the Pelicans aren’t a great defensive team. Josh?

Chahal:

Yeah. Especially in a game like this, I think that’s pretty much how it may well pan out. One thing in particular that like Chris said, people seem to overlook that rebounding advantage and the disparity that it can cause. We’re talking about a situation where the Pelicans could end up with 10 to 12 extra possessions in this game because of that advantage inside. That is huge in a game of basketball, particularly when they already have such an advantage scoring inside the paint, as well. If they can convert all of those second chance opportunities into easy buckets, that is a mountain to climb for a Clippers team who like you said, offensively, struggling themselves. And can’t seem to find any consistency at the moment, which is only natural when you look at the players that they’ve had out of their rotation as well, Paul George, obviously the stand out there, but even guys like Luke Kennard who can space the floor for them, Isaiah Hartenstein, an interesting one as well. He was really, really good for them off the bench, gave a lot of energy and helped sort of alleviate some of the stress in the rebound disparities because he was able to crash the offensive glass so well, and give the Clippers those second chance opportunities.

Chahal:

So, without him, you’re losing your opportunity to do so at one end, and you’re still giving them up at the other end. So, if the Pelicans do push the pace, should be able to attack the rim relentlessly I think in this one, and have success, and they crash the glass, they get all those extra possessions, it’s going to be a really tough night for the Clippers.

Constable:

Yeah. The more I look at this game, the more I like my pick, and after hearing you guys talk, I like it even more, but that’s always a little scary. So, we’ll go into this one with caution, but I’m taking the Pelicans minus four in New Orleans tonight.

Constable:

A team, the Nuggets, that we just talked about as one that blew a huge lead, and then is shooting terrible from the three. But tonight, they’re a 10 and a half point favorite over a Blazers team that is pretty much decimated. So many players out, Damian Lillard is going to have abdominal surgery and be out for and an indefinite period. I’m not sure anyone really knows how long that recovery is going to be. CJ McCollum still out, Anfernee Simons, tons of guys out for the Blazers tonight. So, Nuggets laying a huge number at home. I never really thought the Nuggets would be this big of a favorite, but Chris, they are tonight, and you have a play in this game.

Farley:

I do have a play in this game, and I went outside my process a little bit for this one. So, listeners beware, because sometimes when you go outside of your process, it doesn’t work out well. But, reading a few articles about the Trailblazers and just what’s going on with that organization, I think there’s a chance that this is an organization that starts to lose on purpose, right? Or as we call it, tanking. I mean, without Lillard now for potentially eight weeks, right, CJ McCollum still out with a collapsed lung, I think there’s still really no timetable for his return. This is probably a Trailblazers team that knows they going to go too far this season. If they do tank or not completely tank, but decide not to put in full effort all year, they will get a much higher chance at a great draft lottery pick. And this is a team, let’s face it, who they need to kind of flip the script here and change some things up.

Farley:

So, I can just really see that as a narrative. I’m not sure if I totally believe it yet, but we’ll see how they kind of respond after that news of Damian Lillard going to go get surgery, and now facing the next eight weeks, probably without two of their stars.

Farley:

And on the other end, you have a Denver Nuggets team who again, they played well in the first half, and they let the Clippers come back from 25 points down to win that game. If that’s not motivation to come out and play really efficiently in the first half, I’m not sure what is, even if the Trailblazers aren’t a little depleted based on the Lillard news or whatever, just emotionally in a bad place. I still think that the Denver Nuggets are going to come out of this one, and they’re going to play really well.

Farley:

It’s really interesting, the disparity in the Denver Nuggets. They are first in points per game in the second quarter, and they’re almost last in the NBA, they’re 29th in the third quarter. So, something there is going on between the Nuggets in the first half and the second half. We saw it in the last game, but that has happened multiple times this season where they really dominate the first half, but then they just let the other team come back. So again, scary. I don’t know why I’m on all these first quarter, first half bets, but I don’t trust the Nuggets in a full game, and the Blazers have always been, I mean, historically, at least the past few years, have been a team that they can start off slow, and then they’ll come back in the second half, and we’ve seen that several times this year from the Blazers.

Farley:

So, I’m going to stay extra cautious here. I expect a big Nikola Jokic game, and I think that the Nuggets can cover this in the first half. The line has also gone up on that. I got it at five, my numbers have it around seven, but even at six, there’s very little value, but I mean, this is a bad Trailblazers team who can’t stop much of anything on defense. I think that Jokic could have a huge game in the paint in this one. I mean, he can have a huge game from all over the court, especially after not a very good performance in his last game. So, I love the Nuggets in this one, but I’m just, again, scared to take them for the full game because of what we’ve seen from them lately.

Constable:

So, Chris is playing things safe today. Josh, you’re the daredevil taking the full game once again.

Chahal:

Yeah. It feels that way. Especially with Denver. I think we all know how bad the second halves have been for them, and that it’s becoming sort of an unwanted pattern, if you will. But, I think the sort of saving grace, if you will, is having had Mike Malone call them out in a manner that he did post-game in the Clippers, and did so I think in a really sort of passive aggressive kind of smart way of doing so, as well, saying that that’s the type of loss that’ll keep him up for weeks, but he doesn’t know if it impacts his players at all, to be honest, because they’ll just be on social media and looking at where to go out for dinner and where to go out for drinks.

Chahal:

So, I think it was a really clever approach by him, and I think we do get the response from Denver as a result here. With the Blazers, obviously, the Lillard news is the big one, and not having CJ there, but I think it’s everything else that adds up to this being a really bad Blazers team, and a really bad spot for them to match up with Denver. They lose Norman Powell, which is, I think big, but losing Anfernee Simons I think is massive, especially when you already don’t have Lillard and McCollum. That’s probably the only other primary ball handler that you have that was reliable in any way, shape, or form, both as a scorer and a playmaker that’s now no longer there. So, that is a big one for me. Larry Nance obviously still being out is also quite big, even though it doesn’t necessarily impact the line all that much. Nurkić is basically just on an island on his own out there, and this isn’t a matchup where I think he’s going to have a ton of success, because I do think Jokic can put a lot of pressure on him defensively, where he may find himself in some foul trouble, or either way, he’s going to have to exert a lot more energy at the defensive end to be as impactful offensively as what the Blazers need, and as much as he would probably like, either.

Chahal:

So, everything for me points to the Nuggets here. You look at the roster and the potential lineups and rotations for the Blazers, and this would be the worst in the NBA for me, and I’m talking below the Orlando Magic. So, I do come out at basically close to market here, so I don’t necessarily show a big numbers edge, but one of those situations where I think that trying to just simply subtract the value of each player to come up with a line price isn’t necessarily reflective of how bad Portland is. There’s got to be some sort of, I guess, compounded interest, if you will, on having so many bodies and players out, especially at key positions. So, yeah, I really like Denver in this spot. I don’t necessarily trust them in second halves, but I just think that this sets up really nicely for them to come out, put their best foot forward at home, and take care of business against a heavily depleted team that, like Chris said, I think is going to go and embrace the tank.

Constable:

It’s got to be very deflating, your franchise player is now out for eight weeks. Basically, your season’s over is kind of what these guys have felt over the last 24 hours since this news was announced, or at least if I were on the team, that’s kind of how I would feel, that maybe we were able to make a push with Dame coming back in a couple weeks, sitting, getting healthy, but now he’s going through the surgery. It kind of feels like the season’s over. So, this first game back, I imagine the morale around the Portland Trailblazers right now is not very high, which leads to a favorable game for the Nuggets tonight. Nuggets are also getting Will Barton back, add a little extra spark offensively where they’ve been lacking a little bit lately. So, things are looking good for the Nuggets tonight. Josh, my gosh, I just about knocked over a dish. I am so sorry. Nuggets, Josh is taking the nuggets 10 and a half, and Chris is taking the first half minus six. And I’m going to try not to break anything over here.

Farley:

You’re excited about these Nuggets plays, I like it.

Constable:

I really am. Getting jacked up for this game. All right. So, questions for today, Thunder and Nets, if you had to take a side, which would it be? Nets are minus five and a half right now, and they’re without a lot of players. Josh?

Chahal:

They’re without everyone for tonight, which isn’t surprising. Those openers of 10, 10 and a half got snatched up very quickly last night. Current market price I think is kind of close to fair, but again, I think the value on the Thunder, for much the same reason as trying to come up with a number in this Denver game, where you can subtract the value of Kyrie, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Patty Mills, Nicolas Claxton, and you’ll get to a number basically around here, but ultimately, it’s probably not entirely accurate, because there needs to be some sort of compound on having so many pieces out at one time. It’s not like subtracting just one player from an individual game.

Chahal:

So, I think the value probably still with the Thunder here, especially with the minutes that have been logged and the travel that’s been logged as well for Brooklyn. This is fourth game in five nights, which is just insane. Obviously they had to make up that game in Portland, which has just thrown an absolute spanner into the works for them for the week, where you’ve had to travel to the West Coast and back, and then to Chicago, and then back to New York. So, a lot of mileage logged. I think it sets up basically is you have to play the Thunder or pass here. You’ve certainly missed the best of the number by a long way, but even if I were to still go and get involved in this one, it’s with OKC.

Constable:

Chris, with this game opening OKC plus 10 and a half, if the Nets were fully healthy, would you have played OKC?

Farley:

You know what, I would’ve considered it, because even before I knew that all those injuries were happening for the Nets, I still like, I need to see more consistency from the Nets and home. And the Thunder are one of these teams where it’s not really yesterday’s Thunder. They do have some talent on that team, and they do put in a lot of effort, and in fact, I think the Thunder could really control this game from a pace perspective, too. I’m going to take a look at the under in this one, actually.

Farley:

I don’t know where the line stands now, but you know, B/C version of the Nets tonight against the Thunder, who always do play some defense. I mean, the Thunder are not going to blow you away ever with their points, but it seems like they give more effort on the defensive side of the floor. So, this is probably a game where the thunder are licking their chops. They know they can win. So, they at least keep this one close. There’s probably still value on the plus five, too, although God, it is tough to take a plus five after ti was 10 and a half. I mean, it goes against a lot of the principles of a sports better, but that probably still is the right side.

Constable:

Totals, 216 and a half at BetUS Sportsbook right now. So, if you like the over/under, Chris kind of leaning towards the under, head over to BetUS, play that. The Nets are not very good at home. Best road team in the league, but home is a different story. So, the value might be on OKC tonight.

Constable:

All right, our best bets for today, let’s take a quick peek at those Bucks. All of us playing the Bucks, Chris playing first halves and Josh playing the Nuggets full game. I also like the Pelicans. Well?

Farley:

All home teams.

Constable:

All home teams. Yeah. All home teams, and all favorites tonight. That is either going to be a really good [inaudible 00:40:51] or a little scary. I don’t know. I feel like taking all favorites is not always a good thing.

Farley:

If it’s one of those NBA nights, it’s not. No, it’s…

Chahal:

Yeah. It is a little bit like that. Yeah. For me, for whatever reason, favorites have not been all that kind to me this season. So, we could say what we drew though, so that’s one way to look at it. Things are going to [crosstalk 00:41:11] eventually.

Constable:

That’s true.

Farley:

I have a question for the audience. Maybe you guys can get back at me, whoever’s listening. Why is it when the NBA goes nuts, it’s like every game in the slate? Like everything flips. It’s never like one or two, it’s like the whole slate flips. It’s like the Thunder are beating the Bucks, and it’s like, what is going on? It always seems it’s the case. So, if anybody can figure that out in your numbers, you get back to us on the show, you let us know.

Constable:

Let us know, hit us up on Twitter. Chris, at, @farleybets. We’ve changed it.

Farley:

@farleybets, officially, yes.

Constable:

Okay. Chris Twitter, @farleybets. Josh, @punt_school. I’m @kateconstable. We’d love to hear from you. Give us a follow. Also give us a like, subscribe, hit the alert button so you always know when we’re going live here, and we will look forward to seeing you back here tomorrow. Have a good night.

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