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Best NBA Predictions Today

Kate Constable:

Good afternoon, happy Friday. Thank you for joining us here on the BetUS NBA show. Alex Christensen, Josh C. here today with us on Friday. Chris is out collecting his winnings from Circa, he’s in Vegas probably having a good time. But Josh, we’re glad you could join us today. I am Kate Constable and we have plenty to discuss today. We had a great afternoon yesterday at six for six Bucks, Nuggets, Pelicans, we had first halves, game totals, it was fantastic. But Josh, what were your thoughts in this Bucks-Warriors game early?

Josh C.:

That was interesting. I wasn’t expecting it to quite go that convincingly but that was an absolute beat down. I guess that’s, obviously, what happens as well when one team is shooting the lights out and the other team just cannot get going at all early. I think by the time we got to midway through the second quarter, we were all quite confident in calling that game. I don’t necessarily think it tells us too much about either team right now, we know that the Bucks can be very, very good and that they are very, very good regular season especially when healthy and, obviously, aside from Drew, they pretty much had their rotations there.

Josh C.:

And the same for the Warriors, we know that when they’re healthy, they’re very, very good. When you remove Draymond Green, that’s a pretty vital piece at both ends of the floor, not just defensively, but especially on offense as well. So, they’re still working things out, they’re still working through rotations with Klay Thompson back there as well. So, it might be a rough week or two, I think, for the Warriors. I wouldn’t hit the panic button per se but, yeah, don’t expect, I think, the best of them to be coming forth in the coming weeks. But overall, as a night, that was basically as comfortable as it comes for us, right?

Kate Constable:

It was very comfortable. Even the Nuggets … What did they play? I’m blanking all of a sudden.

Josh C.:

Yeah, the Blazers.

Alex Christensen:

[crosstalk 00:01:52] out of this.

Kate Constable:

The Blazers, yeah.

Alex Christensen:

[crosstalk 00:01:54] control Blazers.

Josh C.:

[crosstalk 00:01:55] Blazers.

Alex Christensen:

It’s the Nuggets trying to beat up on the Blazers which is good for me.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, the Blazers didn’t even have anyone, yeah, didn’t even have a team hardly but they beat them pretty handily, very comfortable night. Alex, how was your evening?

Alex Christensen:

Had the Nuggets, had the Thunder, should have taken the Thunder money line, I guess I was a little shocked. The Brooklyn Nets, it’s another team but people are probably panicking a little bit, they are going through just a brutal schedule. They had some games that were postponed that have been slipped back in here. So, giving them some time as they’re dealing with that schedule spot as well as reintegrating Kyrie every other night but overall, a pretty fun night in the association. Overall, a lot of blowouts. I was actually flipping through, I didn’t notice this till just now, the closest score last night was 12, I’m sorry, an eight-point win by the Grizzlies, otherwise, everybody else won by close to 20 or more.

Kate Constable:

Wow. That eight-point win by the Grizzlies came in the last couple of minutes and John Konchar had 15 points. I don’t know about you guys, I haven’t watched a whole lot of him. I don’t know his story, I don’t know much about him-

Alex Christensen:

I don’t know who that is.

Kate Constable:

Okay, thank you. I didn’t want to say-

Alex Christensen:

This is the first time I’ve heard that word, Konchar-

Kate Constable:

[crosstalk 00:03:02] this guy, but yeah-

Alex Christensen:

… I just looked down at 16 points or, sorry, 15 points. It’s 17-hole rebounds, good for him.

Kate Constable:

17 rebounds, he shot 85% from the field, 75% from three, he was all over the place.

Josh C.:

Yeah, I feel like it’s a name that you only know if you have bet online against the Grizzlies during this run. So, I have heard of him, basically, because I’ve been against him and he has come up with some pretty big shots in games to help swing momentum. Obviously, last night, probably the biggest game for him holistically but he’s popped up and he seems to be fitting into that rotation pretty well. Whoever he is and wherever he’s from.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, Purdue, West Lafayette. I believe went to college, went undrafted. Now, bench player, doesn’t average a whole lot of minutes but, last night, he was the difference maker in that game. So, props to John Konchar and the Grizzlies, they’re on an 11-game winning streak now. Our win streak, pretty good yesterday, struck out our overall record going into today. Things are looking pretty good. When you have six wins in a row, add that to the total, not bad. So, then 58-54, Alex 50-43, Josh 44-44, 213 wins altogether.

Kate Constable:

All right, taking a look at today’s slate, nine games on the slate today and, once again, we have quite a few bets on those games. Start with the Raptors playing the Pistons tonight in the Motor City. Raptors are a 10-point favorite, total’s 211 and a half. The Raptors have won six straight before they lost them to the Suns at home on Tuesday, Pistons coming off of a terrible 46-point loss to the Bulls. Josh, who do you like in this one?

Josh C.:

Yeah, for once, not on the ugly side of this one and riding with the Toronto Raptors which is going to be a refreshing change. This line is creeping up to a point where it’s getting unbeatable, I think. Nine a half, likely to cut off 10, I would say is really pushing it, that’s where I am at fair price. But just looking at the advantages that Toronto has in some pretty key areas, their rebounding advantage, probably the most notable, they are absolutely crushing the offensive glass at the moment. Toronto’s second in the league, first over the past fortnight in that area.

Josh C.:

So, they are doing a terrific job of creating second chance scoring opportunities and they should be able to do that again against the Detroit team who is bottom tier in terms of offensive rebound percentage allowed. They’re a team, also, the turns the ball over a lot which is expected, I guess, when you have such young guards predominantly taking up large usage percentages in your team and, Toronto, a team that turns the ball over a lot as well and they’re able to get out in transition and create a lot of fast break scoring opportunities.

Josh C.:

So, I think those two areas, in particular, are going to lead to a lot of very easy buckets for Toronto and, when that’s the case, it makes it really difficult to have to make up ground against a side that also is capable of scoring in half court sets and just has advantages, basically, all over the floor, really. I don’t see how Detroit is going to be able to keep up in a game like this if they fall behind early. You look at the statistical profile of Toronto and how they can take advantage and it basically matches up exactly with a team like Memphis who are terrific on the offensive glass, they do a terrific job in forcing turnovers, they can get out in transition well, they attack the rim relentlessly. And we saw what Memphis did to Detroit just a week ago, it was a 30-point blowout in that game, so I can definitely see something similar here.

Josh C.:

My only hesitation is, with Toronto, obviously in this weird situation where they spend all this time at home playing in front of no fans, go onto the road playing in front of fans, how does that impact the team offensively? In particular, we saw shooting splits be impacted in that area when comparing to previous seasons. Does that happen again? It might. I hope not but it might. That’s probably the only hesitation I’d have in this spot particular for Toronto. So, I’m happy to lay the larger line here. I do come out at about a 10 so, like I said, not a huge market edge but I think, in terms of matchup, this one should be an absolute route.

Kate Constable:

Raptors won’t have The Raptor, though, underneath the basket to distract free throw shooters on this, so that’s a disadvantage.

Alex Christensen:

I love that. That was so great to picture and stuff. I will hit on what Josh said at the end there. My hesitation here about the Raptors in general is that they are going to be on the road, they have played markedly differently home and road. Again, no fans at home, they come out and it’s also a little bit of a look head spot. They’ve got the Bucks tomorrow night, so I wonder how much their attention is really going to be focused tonight. I was actually looking at Detroit, again, as Josh mentioned, this numbers moved a lot. Started this morning around seven and a half, has drifted out towards 10.

Alex Christensen:

I’ve been looking, actually, at Detroit first quarter, if that gets to three and a half, I’ll scoop up a little bit of Pistons there in the first quarter plus three and a half. But it is a great matchup for Detroit, I’m sorry, a great matchup for Toronto. Every single question that Detroit is going to ask, Toronto has an answer for. They’ve got the length and the guard play to slow some of these guys down and the overall intelligence to really trouble what is a young team with a lot of young guards. So, I think as the game progresses, it’ll get more and more Raptors but I was actually looking at, maybe, a Pistons first quarter look, we’ll see if that gets to three and a half.

Kate Constable:

Alex, you take a lot of first quarters, first halves, do you have a model that you use to track first quarters and figure out edges there?

Alex Christensen:

Yeah, I do. I have one that looks at first quarters. I found that first halves have become a little bit more efficient. I think some sharper guys started working on that a little bit longer ago, there’s a little bigger limits there. But first quarters, I find, are still, for the most part, derivatives of the full game lines and the first half lines and you have a lot of teams whether it be rotations in the starting five. A good example was the Sixers a couple years ago, they’re still pretty good in the first quarter but they used to be a dominant first quarter team because Brett Brown used to take [inaudible 00:09:00], plan for about six minutes, bench him for about three or four minutes and then put him back in at the end of the first quarter. And that weird little substitution pattern gave the Sixers a big edge at the end of first quarters, whereas, most teams will play their starters for about eight to 10 minutes and then bench them for the end.

Alex Christensen:

So, you’ll see the worst teams sneak up on them a little bit towards the end there and there just seems to be a lot of value in some of these bad teams and it also cleaned some stuff out. I found that rest doesn’t seem to matter as much, I don’t see as big of a drop off in ratings in the first quarter and teams don’t tank in the first quarter. So, you get towards the end of the year, the Houston Rockets were a great first quarter team last year. I think they lost 29 out of 30 games or something to close the season last year but were covering first quarters and just getting blown out of halftime. So, it’s a really fun angle and it’s a good thing to look at if you are looking for something to start within the NBA and a small niche market to start with, take a look at first quarters, there’s definitely still some edges there, again, in those couple areas I just talked about.

Kate Constable:

Interesting. So, what you’re saying is take a look at some of the bad teams and their first quarter and maybe instead of betting them full game, just first quarter?

Alex Christensen:

Yeah.

Kate Constable:

Okay.

Alex Christensen:

Yeah, absolutely. Again, bad teams generally get on good teams early and then, as the game goes on and on, it’s a better opportunity for the good team. Generally, they don’t pack it in, sometimes, maybe, in a look ahead spot, but I think if you’re betting a dog, it’s good to look at them early. I think there is still some good value there.

Kate Constable:

I like it. Dwane Casey, the head coach for the Pistons, he coached the Raptors 2011-2018. Since he got fired, he is seven and three straight up and against the spread against the Raptors team. So, Josh, sorry to tell you that but interesting that Dwane Casey comes to play when he plays this Raptors team. So, we’ll see what happens tonight with all of that. Josh-

Alex Christensen:

Just [crosstalk 00:10:53] on Josh’s parade.

Kate Constable:

… taking the Raptors minus 10 tonight. Josh isn’t scared, he doesn’t care. All right, so-

Josh C.:

Look, if I have to deal with a Dwane Casey revenge game, so be it. I’ll just add it to the resume of reasons I’ve lost this season.

Alex Christensen:

He’ll note it in the log.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Alex Christensen:

Got Dwane Caseyed.

Kate Constable:

Celtics, they are in Philly taking on the Sixers tonight. Sixers are a three and a half point favorite, total’s 207 and a half. Atlantic Division matchup, third game between these two teams. Game one, Boston won by one. Game two, Philly won by one. Joel Embiid had 41 points in that game. I’m going to go ahead and say he has a similar game tonight. He’s been playing out of his mind these last eight games or so. Thirty points in eight straight, 31 in his last five games. So, really no reason to think that he’s going to slow that down tonight against this Boston frontcourt that allows 65% shooting inside the restricted area and 44% of Embiid’s points come around that area in the paint.

Kate Constable:

So, I like Sixers tonight to cover this. I know these last two games have been played very close. Again, this looks like it’ll be a close scoring game but their defense, Sixers’ defense has also been middle of the road for most of the season but it’s picked up in these last eight games or so. So, I like Philly to cover in this one. Alex, you’re a Philly fan and, Josh, you are Boston fan. So, can each of you make a case as to why your team could or couldn’t win tonight? Starting with you, Al.

Alex Christensen:

Obviously, the Sixers are going to win. The Sixers are better, we have Joel Embiid, the best player, we have Joel Embiid, a player that really seems to care about this matchup. He talks about it a lot, he really gets motivated for these games and who in the Celtics is going to guard him? Robert Williams? Al Horford used to be able to guard him five years ago, I don’t necessarily know what’s going to happen there, I will say as just an aside. Hit the Horford over on assist.

Alex Christensen:

I don’t know why they keep hanging that number so low but it’s been a lot of fun. It is a pretty good matchup, overall, for the Sixers. This is a game where Ben Simmons really is missed, Jason Tatum generally does pretty well, it’s hard to find somebody to match up with him. As good of a job as Thybulle does, he still fails too much in some of those moments. But a healthy Sixers team here at home, again, in a matchup where, again, we got Seth Curry, he got a game to warm himself up a little bit. I think this is a nice spot for the Sixers.

Kate Constable:

Josh? Celtics?

Josh C.:

Fair. Yeah, look, I used to love talking about this game with Alex a lot more when Boston were good. I could, actually, probably counter some of that. It’s hard to disagree with a lot of what both of you have said. I think the issue with having someone stick to Embiid for the 38 to 40 minutes that he’s on the floor is extremely difficult. The game that we did lose by one point, Al Horford did sit that game and I think it was pretty noticeable and I think that he still has an impact to play in helping defend the paint and helping contain Embiid, to a certain extent anyway. So, that’ll be pretty pivotal here. That said, I’m pretty much on the market here. I make the 76ers as minus three, so I think the price is fair.

Josh C.:

The Celtics are just an absolute barrel of inconsistency at the moment. I don’t think they’ve necessarily tend to [inaudible 00:14:09] just because they beat up on the Pacers twice. So, I’m certainly not ready to say that things are on the up for Boston just yet. I think it might be eventually but it also might involve having to change coaches before that happens. But that’s another difficult conversation topic altogether, I’m sure we can delve into that in due time but for this particular game-

Alex Christensen:

You’re not going to let them finish the first season?

Josh C.:

I think they might, out of pity, if nothing else not because he’s going to do anything better than what he’s already done. Look, I agree with you, Kate. I think the Sixers is the right slide here as much as it pains me to say. I really can’t pull out much of an argument for Boston right now. I think that they’re still too inconsistent, too many pieces that haven’t quite found their feet in the rotation yet, too dependent, obviously, on Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum against a 76ers team who will likely be able to score, I think, in a multitude of ways away from just Embiid, it’s going to make things a little bit difficult for Boston to hang in this one. So, home team is probably the right play here.

Alex Christensen:

And now Marcus Smart, too.

Kate Constable:

[crosstalk 00:15:09] you would have told us how you really felt about the Celtics coach with that, in that topic.

Josh C.:

Or open up a can of worms now, aren’t we?

Kate Constable:

Alex, if you like the Sixers tonight in this one, why don’t you play it with me?

Alex Christensen:

Because I have enough on the line given how much trash I just talked on record and how many DMs I’m going to send. How much my heart, for some reason, breaks when the Sixers lose and, at the end of the day, this game should be a fun watch because we have two teams that, historically, are terrible in the fourth quarter. So, it’s really going to come down to who blows it less at the end and I try to avoid betting on situations like that.

Kate Constable:

That’s probably smart.

Josh C.:

That’s literally how the last game played out as well in the fourth quarter. It was two teams who would, basically, trying to give the game away and Joel Embiid was the only one on the floor that decided that he was going to put the ball in the basket and Boston went absolutely ice cold. Everyone else on Philadelphia also went ice cold but that’s pretty much all it’s going to take, I think, again today. If it’s another close game, it’s going to be which superstar catches fire and maybe it’s Tatum, probably going to be Embiid, that could be enough.

Kate Constable:

Well, the Celtics, their last two games that they’ve lost they’re five and two in the last seven and, last two they’ve lost, they blew a huge lead to the Nicks and then one possession game to the Spurs. So, Celtics are going to blow this one again. Feeling good, I’m playing Sixers minus three and a half. The Warriors at the United Center tonight in Chicago taken on the Bulls. Bulls are a three and a half point favorite, total’s 223 and a half. Both of these teams coming off of terrible losses. Chicago lost by 26 to Brooklyn on Wednesday, Golden State last night to Milwaukee, that was terrible. They lost by 19 but were down as much as 39 in the first half.

Kate Constable:

So, I am going to play the Bulls here tonight. Just a bad spot for the Warriors and we know the Warriors’ performance last night isn’t indicative of who they are as a team but it’s just a really bad spot. Second game of back to back, third game in four nights, no Draymond Green, no Klay Thompson tonight, he’s resting. A lot of times on back to backs, Otto Porter, Jr. or Andre Iguodala rests and then, Gary Payton II suffered a back injury in the first quarter and didn’t return last night, so who knows how he is going to play. So, just because of all of these injuries and where the Warriors are as a team right now, I think the Bulls bounced back after that terrible loss to Brooklyn and win this one by a four, at least four. Josh, do you agree with me?

Josh C.:

Yeah, I do. I think I’m going to be getting involved in this one with you as well, I haven’t done so yet. But like you said, the spot for Golden State is pretty rough, the players out are, obviously, impactful. It looks like Gary Payton as well, I think he’s out and that’s going to matter, I think, a lot in a matchup like this for them on such a short turnaround. We spoke yesterday about Steve Kerr basically publicly coming out and saying that they’re going to trial some rotations there and see what works and what doesn’t work with Klay out there and those moving pieces are going to impact the team in the next couple of weeks while they do try and figure things out and they cut down to what will be their preferred 10-man rotation now that Klay’s back and once Draymond’s back. In a spot like this, his hands, probably, are going to be forced a little bit more so they won’t be quite as experimental and you got to play what you have available.

Josh C.:

So, it might actually help them a little bit to that degree but, at the same time, it’s difficult to have to back up in a spot like this and against the Chicago team at home who should be fired up themselves after what was a pretty lackluster, especially second half, showing against Brooklyn. So, they certainly have a point to prove themselves with Draymond out, with the adjustments out, I come out just a little bit above market, I can make this Bulls three and a half, four. So, again, it’s not necessarily a big market edge, I just like the matchup and the spot for Chicago just given what Golden State’s going through at the moment. So, not involved yet but I can see myself getting involved with the Bulls with you on this one.

Kate Constable:

Alex, this line, open up three and a half, I believe, one up to four. I took it at four because I thought this is going to keep moving. So, I took it at four, it’s back down to three and a half now. Why do you think this has gone back down in favor of the Warriors?

Alex Christensen:

Well, I think it’s what Josh talked about. I look at this and my line is pretty close to three and a half, four. I think what you probably saw there was, maybe, some people who were able to grab a three or at least something like that. So, I’d hit the four and then just grab some four. Honestly, there’s a big chunk of money that moves in the market where, basically, it’s just better knowing that, “All right, here’s a three, this is going to four. I’m going to grab three then I’m going to grab plus four later. I’m not even going to try to win this.” It’s just the system of trying to middle over and over again and that’s honestly what causes a lot of those little half point bounce backs here and there.

Alex Christensen:

Overall, Josh covered a lot of it here, it’s a tough spot for the Warriors. We touched on it, actually, a little bit earlier when we were talking about the Warriors at the beginning of the show. It’s just a tough part of the schedule for them, they’re working through reintegrating Klay Thompson and all these guys, so I think the right side is the Bulls but, again, to tweak some stuff here, I can’t get it to too big of an edge and I think the Bulls here. Again, the market is very high on the Bulls in general. So, the number looks more right than wrong but I think the Bulls are the better of the two sides

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, I still feel good. I’m playing the Bulls tonight. Apparently, I’m playing them minus four but [inaudible 00:20:41] minus three and a half, even better for us. All right, another team that’s minus three and a half tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers, they are in San Antonio to take on the Spurs. Total here is 220. Spurs finally healthy after so many players and health and safety protocols, getting a number of those players back tonight and they really need it because they’re coming off of four straight losses. And the most recent one, not one they’d like to look back on, to the Rockets. Cavs also just dismantled the Jazz the other night, impressive win there, although that was without Rudy Gobert, and he is finally back out of health and safety protocol. So, Alex, you like the Cavs in this one tonight at minus three and a half, why is that?

Alex Christensen:

Well, they say it’s uncouth to kick a man while they’re down but I’m going to keep betting against the Spurs until they turn this ship around. Apologies if you can hear that noise by the way, it’s my dog very excitedly running around, I guess he’s excited to go against the Spurs as well tonight. But they’ve been really injured, they come home after a long road trip, they’re licking their wounds here. They’re going to try to reintegrate some guys, they are a little bit healthier overall. Calvin Johnson is going to play, they have Doug McDermott back, so they should be a little bit more competitive.

Alex Christensen:

In all honesty, I’m probably selling it pretty low on the Spurs still but I still think there’s just some value and it’s mostly just a play on this Cleveland team. I’m at the point where Cleveland should be six, seven-point favorites over any team that’s not necessarily a playoff team which is the Spurs, even at their most healthy, they’re a borderline playoff team. So, I have a pretty solid edge on this number. It was honestly one of the ones where the edge was honestly so big, I had to go back and double check some stuff and think about it, I was like, “Something looks a little bit off here.”

Alex Christensen:

But honestly, when I first opened this up and ran my numbers here, I had Cleveland minus eight. I tweaked some stuff for some of the Spurs being back, got it down to six and a half, in the seven range but anything four or better looks really great. We get so few opportunities to back this Cleveland Cavaliers team with two great big men against the team with effectively no big men. So, I think it’s going to be a great night for Cleveland and a rough homecoming here for the Spurs.

Kate Constable:

That’s what confused me on this game is this line. It’s scaring me a little because I agree with you, I feel like the Cavs should be favored by seven, eight points against a team like the Spurs. So, having them only three and a half points, that scares me off of this a little. Josh?

Josh C.:

No, I completely agree with what Alex said. Initially, I showed a pretty decent sized edge and so I had to adjust a couple of things factoring in that San Antonio are healthy again and those games over the past week where they were pretty decimated weren’t a fair reflection and that some of those metrics, I think, scaled things a little bit too heavily against them. But in doing so, I came out almost at market, I’m still at Cavs minus four so I still show an edge even a three and a half, obviously, not as significant or a notable one but that does exist there. But like you said, when I look at these two teams and how I have them power rated, on a neutral, I would expect the Cavs to probably be about a seven and a half point favorite and, if that’s the case, all you’re doing is adjusting for home court. You shouldn’t be coming close to this number unless you’re overvaluing home court by a lot. So, absolutely agree.

Josh C.:

The only concern, I think, I have for Cleveland is that they are on the tail end of what has been a pretty long West Coast road trip and I’m pretty sure it’s the front end of a back to back as well. So, maybe they are looking forward to just getting back home a little bit and getting this game over and done with. If they are overlooking the Spurs, it could be dangerous because San Antonio is just one of those teams that, if you’re not fully engaged, they can hang around, they can put up points in a hurry and, next thing you know, you’re scrambling to get out of a bit of a hole. I don’t have a lot of faith in San Antonio, I haven’t all season, I’ve been lower on them than the market for, basically, the entirety. It did burn me a couple of times early but then it was very much the other way over the past month or so to more than even that out. Happy to basically oppose them, I think, in most situations.

Josh C.:

So, it’s certainly Cleveland or pass for me. I haven’t got involved again as yet, that doesn’t mean I won’t. Like I said, I think I do come out closer to five, five and a half off the top of my head. The most I can adjust to is a four and, anyway, even then, it’s still showing some slight value on the market. So, definitely agree, Cleveland’s the right side on this one.

Kate Constable:

As this total, 220, the Cavs are a really good defensive team and then they’ve got two huge guys in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley who are road protectors, don’t allow a whole lot in. Does the total seem pretty high to you?

Alex Christensen:

No, because the pace of this game is going to be really fast. The Spurs, again, continued to be one of, if not, the fastest teams in the league at less than 14 seconds per possession. I did double check that number and see if it’s still there but it’s either just under 14 or right around that number, pretty close to tops in the league. The Cavaliers have no problem running but I think they’ll be happy to run with this team given how young and athletic they are, they’ll be happy to turn the ball over. And again, as I go back and look at my model, this feels like it might get a little blowouty to me. Again, maybe this is just something I’m way off and that we’re going to be laughing about this on Monday because the Spurs win by 15 or something. But if this really gets out of hand for Cleveland, I can see San Antonio being happy to just let them run and you’re just looking at some really big numbers.

Kate Constable:

Well, based on how Cleveland’s played so far and their ATS record, I think three and a half, they’ll be just fine over the Spurs. So, Alex taking the Cavs minus three and a half. The Houston Rockets and the Kings, this looks like it’s going to be an ugly game. Kings minus five, total is to 240. Both of these teams coming off of a win, Rockets beat the Spurs, Kings beat the Lakers, I’m not sure either of those wins really tell you a whole lot. Maybe the Kings over the Lakers, that was a big comeback win for them, that’s a good win there. Alex, this total, you like the under end because this is a massive total, 240.

Alex Christensen:

It goes a little bit against something I preach, honestly, quite a bit. You generally should bet under low totals and over high totals but this is another one where I sat down, I looked at my numbers today and I couldn’t get myself within four points of this number. I look at it, both of these offenses are terrible. The Kings just seem to get worse and worse and worse and, despite having this plethora of guards and a few shooters, they don’t seem to want to push the ball. The Rockets continue to drive a high pace but to little success and, if you look at some of their totals against teams that are happy to run with them like San Antonio, Minnesota, Dallas, you have some really high totals, we’re talking about stuff in the 230s, 240s like the number you see tonight.

Alex Christensen:

But against some better defensive teams like, say, the Sixers, the Wizards, even the Nuggets, you start to see some lower numbers here. So, going to hold my nose here, going to take an under. Again, it’s a high total but also, in general, I think we’re going to see a period of unders over the next couple days. As you start to look at actual totals the last week or so, they’re starting to drop and the market average closing total continues to be flat. So, I’ve been looking for spots for unders and, again, I hate going under such a big number here but I can’t get close to it and it looks like unders are coming, so I’m going to grab it here and hope for the best.

Kate Constable:

Josh, thoughts on this total? Do you like the under in this one? The Kings are a good defensive team.

Josh C.:

I don’t like the under. I think it’s the way you can play it but it doesn’t mean I like it. Houston probably going to try and push the pace and I think The Kings, in a situation like this and against a team who, defensively, has so many flaws, they’ll probably happy to just run up and down the floor and bank that they, at the end of the day, can score more points than what the Rockets can. The Kings are going to be aggressive attacking the rim, that’s just what they do and Houston give up a ton of points of the rim, they don’t have rim protection there, they allow a lot of easy buckets inside.

Josh C.:

It, ultimately, is going to come down to whether these two teams can shoot consistently from three and the volume is going to be there but the bottom line is I don’t think either team has the shooting capabilities to be able to say, hand on heart, that you trust either of them to do so at a rate necessary to go over such a ridiculous total. So, that’s why I would say I think the under is the right play when it’s a number that’s so heavily inflated. Both sides, you’re going to get the possessions and you’re going to get the shots needed to go over, I just don’t think either of these teams are trustworthy enough to do so.

Josh C.:

So, yeah, the under is probably the only way to play it but I don’t like it because I don’t want to have to do it but I do slightly lean towards the Kings covering this line as well. If Richaun Holmes is in fact back today, I think that’s a pretty big boost for them inside, something that will help them negate the Christian Wood minutes and, at the other end of the floor, he should be able to secure a lot of offensive rebounds for them and just have his way in bullying what is a pretty weak Houston front court. So, I do show a little bit of value towards the Kings minus five, haven’t got involved in that one yet but I think unders is the right side here, I just don’t have a strong opinion of it either way.

Kate Constable:

I thought about playing the under with you, Alex, but that number scares me a little, I’m not quite sure what to do with it so I am taking the Kings minus five. Both of these guards on both these teams are terrible, they really don’t have much offense but I think the Kings are a little bit better, they’re the better of the bad. So, I like the Kings in this one. Rockets are going to play fast and they’re going to run up and down but I think the Kings will match that tonight and that’ll get them out in transition, fast break points for them, that’s where they score a lot is in that transition mode. So, I have the Kings minus five in this one but yeah, that total, I’m very interested to see what happens with that. And-

Alex Christensen:

The market moved against me a little bit, too. It was 237, 238 when I bet it this morning, so it is ticking up. There seems to be some disagreement with me.

Kate Constable:

The market moving in terms of overs and unders, it seems a little like tons of unders to start the season then we move to overs and back to unders. Is there any pattern in which, every couple of weeks, the market will adjust and so you know when something’s coming?

Alex Christensen:

Yeah, that’s what I was talking about. I generally like to track what’s the average total for an NBA game and what’s the average closing total every night. And as you start to look at the two, the closing totals tend to be reactive to actuals. Said another way, the teams are scoring a lot of points, you’ll see total start to slowly rise. If totals are going to be really low, you’ll see totals and NBA betting odds start to drop a little bit. So, it makes sense just like anybody, bookmakers have some numbers they look at, past performance doesn’t necessarily dictate the future but it’s a good basis for it.

Alex Christensen:

And again, it’s good to look at those patterns at all, it’s called technical analysis and something that you steal from stockbrokers and things like that, they have a lot of different charts and ways of looking at it. But yeah, you can see patterns and ebbs and flows because it does take the market a little bit to adjust. We saw it earlier in the year, remember, unders were hitting it a 65% win rate for the first month of the season or so but, you go back and look now and things are just right about to 50/50. So, the market caught up a little bit but yet, it’s part of technical analysis and something that’s important to keep track of.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, you’re taking the under in this one, under 240, I’m taking Kings minus five. Moving on to the Dallas Mavericks playing the Memphis Grizzlies, the red hot Grizzlies. Grizzlies are a two-point favorite, total’s 214 and a half. Memphis coming off of a come from behind win, you could say, against the Wolves last night, they were trailing at halftime, they’ve now won 11 straight. The Mavs, they had a six-game win streak going before they lost to the Knicks on Wednesday. Tonight, Josh, can the Mavs finally disrupt this win streak that the Grizzlies are on?

Josh C.:

Look, I hope so. This is now going to be the fourth time I oppose Memphis during this win streak. So, let’s say, I might [inaudible 00:33:01]. They are, obviously, just showing up every night and basically playing above expectations in really difficult spots and this is another really difficult spot, one where I think it might finally catch up with them a little bit. The Mavs are one of those teams who are set up in a way that can disrupt what Memphis likes to do and limit what it is that they are able to take advantage of in terms of matchups against other teams where they do a terrific job in the offensive glass, one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league, producing a lot of these second chance opportunities The Mavs is one of the best teams in the league when it comes to defensive rebounding percentage and limiting opponent’s chances on the offensive glass, so that is going to be paramount for them. The Mavs, also, just don’t turn the ball over.

Josh C.:

The Grizzlies, another team who are top five, again, in the league in forcing turnovers and they use that to their advantage to get out in transition, a lot of easy buckets in that area. We saw that against Minnesota, in particular, yesterday which helped really stem the tide and flip momentum drastically in that third quarter with turnovers and offensive rebounds. And both of those things the Mavs are able to limit in terms of what they give away to opponents and, I think, that’s obviously going to be extremely important in a game like this. Offensively, the Mavs space the floor pretty well, they’re very much a perimeter centric team and I think that that’s been proven as being the only way that you can really attack Memphis with consistency in terms of being able to create open looks is on the perimeter. They give up very high three point frequency and that’s because they defend the paint so well, do a great job of clogging up the lanes as well and limiting driving lanes for people to attack.

Josh C.:

So, there’s a multitude, I think, of ways that the Mavs have some pretty key advantages here and then you couple it with the fact that it is just a really difficult spot for the Grizzlies there. Dallas has that rest advantage, they are coming back from New York and what was a pretty flat and disappointing showing, I think it’s fair to say. So, they should absolutely be out for this game. I think they know and recognize that they needed as well in terms of how the division stacks up and if they are to give themselves any chance of chasing down this Memphis team, this game is of extreme importance to them.

Josh C.:

So, look, I can make a strong case for Dallas, no doubt, and the opener at three and a half, I thought was terrific value. I think there’s still value now even at two, two and a half. When I adjust for things, the outs and the schedule spot, I can get this down to, basically, close to a pick, maybe Grizzlies minus one. So, still some market value to be had there. That said, it’s the hottest team in the NBA and, like I said, I’ve opposed them three times already in this 11-game win streak to no success. Let’s see if we can get it done tonight.

Kate Constable:

Grizzlies would like to be in this backs up against the wall spots, as underdogs they thrive there so I feel like they’re in that a little bit where everyone’s expecting them to finally lose. And, the Mavs are a team that definitely could come in and beat them there. Other than this Knicks game the other night, they’ve been playing really well both offensively and defensively, they’re on the rise. So, I think the Mavs definitely have a very fair chance to win this one outright and to cover the plus two. Alex, would you bet on the Grizzlies tonight?

Alex Christensen:

I would if, I guess, I had to pick a side here because I liked the Grizzlies before the season, I’ve liked them all year, I think that it’s a really talented and deep team that doesn’t get enough credit for, honestly, how good some of these players are. The Mavericks are a mess but this is a game they really have to win. It’s hard to have a must win game on January 14th of the NBA season. But the Mavericks are six and a half games behind the Grizzlies to win the division and this is something teams pay attention to, they want to get that first round series, it’s really important.

Alex Christensen:

So, if they lose this game, I’m pretty sure it gives Memphis the tiebreaker that would put them, I think, seven and a half, eight and a half games up at that point. It pretty much puts not quite a lock on that division, there’s still a lot of season left but this is really an all-out situation for Dallas. I thought, maybe, that the Knicks game was maybe a little bit of a look ahead spot to this but they had the following day off and they still played everybody 30 minutes, 35 minutes if you go back and look.

Alex Christensen:

So, it’s just a really, really confusing spot. I continue not to think very highly of the Mavericks. Honestly, I liked them the best without Doncic when they just went all big, went no turnovers, grind out some offensive rebounds here. Again, they are a much better basketball team with Luka Doncic but I think it’s harder for them to find their identity. I think it’s harder for some of these guys to do what they want to do on the floor when he’s soaking up so much of the basketball. So, at the end of the day, I think the Grizzlies depth and overall talent will prevail here.

Kate Constable:

Would you guys prefer to have Luka Doncic or Ja Morant on your team?

Alex Christensen:

Luka Doncic.

Josh C.:

I think you have to say Luka.

Alex Christensen:

It’s not really [inaudible 00:37:57].

Josh C.:

But hey, I wouldn’t be disappointed if you gave me Ja Morant either.

Kate Constable:

Right? I prefer John Konchar, 15 points, 17 rebounds. I’ll take John, you guys can have Luka and Ja.

Alex Christensen:

Well done. Bravo.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, Josh, taking the Mavs and Luka Doncic plus two tonight over the Grizzlies. A couple of questions we have, how about the Heat and the Hawks playing again tonight? They played on Wednesday and the Heat won 115-91 which was surprising. You guys were both on the Hawks that night, I hate to remind you.

Alex Christensen:

Duh, thanks. Thanks, I hate to be reminded.

Josh C.:

Yeah, we were. It was very much the wrong side. I’m firmly off of trying to predict when Atlanta is actually going to figure things out and come closer to the team that I anticipated them to be this season. It’s a tough one in these situations. Traditionally, it’s always been a nice spot to try and go and take the team that’s lost and been blown out the first time around to respond in a meaningful way the second time, especially in a divisional game with such importance.

Josh C.:

But two teams that are absolutely trending in the opposite direction where Miami doesn’t seem to matter who takes the floor for them, you know what you’re going to get from them to a certain extent and I guess that comes down to being such a well-coached team. Whereas, Atlanta, you just don’t know what you’re going to get and you at least don’t know when you’re going to get the best version of them anyway and that’s been very few and far between this season.

Josh C.:

So, like I said, traditionally, I got good spots to go and take the Hawks at a price, that’s what I think. We’re at four so you might even be able to get a four and a half if you shop around now. That’s a pretty big adjustment from a game that close to three, only a couple of days ago, you can’t make that much of an adjustment for home court, so they’re obviously factoring in more than just that. But again, not something I particularly want to be touching just given the disparity in the way that the two teams are performing right now.

Alex Christensen:

I think part of the adjustment, too, there was Butler, looks like he’s questionable and this rot line reads to me a little bit like Butler’s going to be in. At the end of the day, the biggest problem with the Hawks is they’ve had a different team on the floor over and over again. It’s weirdly like what happened to them last season where it’s just this big mess of people coming in and out, they didn’t really pop till the end of the season when they got a chance to get everybody healthy. I thought, maybe, that game against Miami would be that spot and it’s weird to think about a Heat team that’s missed Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for weeks now and think, well, they’ve actually had a better injury situation than the team but they have.

Alex Christensen:

Everybody else has been out there, they have some continuity and you really saw how bad some of the Hawks’ guard defenders can be from night to night, really how much they miss having De’Andre Hunter every night. Just some of the shooting numbers for the Heat were really great. I know they only still shot 47% from the field and 35% from three but you had guys having some really good shooting nights and getting a lot of good open looks because of some bad switches. So, I’m with Josh here, I’m going to maybe hit the pause button on both of these teams for a little while and see what the night goes.

Kate Constable:

I’m with you guys. I thought about taking the Hawks because of that spot, Josh, he talked about in this series when one team gets blown up, take the other team to win the next time but I’m not sure the Hawks can do that so I’m just staying off of this one as well. Another question, if the playoffs started tomorrow, who are you betting on to come out of the West? What do you [inaudible 00:41:19]?

Alex Christensen:

Phoenix.

Josh C.:

Phoenix Suns, Phoenix Suns.

Alex Christensen:

Phoenix.

Josh C.:

Full stop, simple as.

Alex Christensen:

Phoenix or Golden State. It’s Phoenix or Golden State, you can’t really talk me into anybody else. We’ll see, if the Grizzlies can continue to be this good, maybe they could be competitive. But if you go back and look through history, there’s a general arc of progression for a team and this would be the year where the Grizzlies make the conference finals and lose four to two there and maybe are more competitive next year as opposed to [inaudible 00:41:44] the title. But the Phoenix Suns, if you don’t already, get some Phoenix Suns futures in your pockets that continue to be under-priced there. I think the Phoenix Suns or the Warriors but I like the Suns right now a little bit better.

Kate Constable:

So, are the Suns in that same trajectory? They went to the finals last year, got beat, this is the year they come back?

Alex Christensen:

Well, usually, you go to the finals and you see a fall off, whereas, this team’s actually gotten better so I’m curious to see. I don’t know if they have the overall talent and firepower to beat either the Bucks or the Nets if those two teams are fully healthy, we’ll see but they have as good a chance as they did last year, if not better.

Josh C.:

Yeah, I think a little bit better. I think they got better, I think their acquisitions were really shrewd, I was really high on this team going into the season. Looking at how they match up, I think as well with the Warriors, I would love to take them in a series bet against Golden State as well. I think that’s probably a play that I’ve already circled if the two teams do meet in the conference finals. I think I’ll be pretty bullish and pretty invested in Phoenix there as well. So, obviously the Warriors are naturally the second one because they have such a great setup and, at both ends of the floor, people know their roles inside and out and they are capable of scoring and defending at an extremely high level.

Josh C.:

Utah are a team I want to say but they still haven’t worked things out in the playoffs and I think, until we can see them adjust come playoff time, it’s hard to get in bed with them per se because it’s probably just going to be more of the same, unfortunately, for them as good as they are in the regular season. So, yeah, very high on Phoenix. I think absolutely what Alex said, you need to have some Suns tickets in your back pocket and probably grab them up now while there is still a lot of value on the market because they are continuously undervalued in that regard.

Alex Christensen:

Utah’s not going to do it, I promise.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Josh C.:

I believe you, I believe you.

Alex Christensen:

It’s that regular season team that, every year, is really good in the regular season but doesn’t have that extra gear, that really great player when it comes down to those moments. So, you get even one injury, one little funky spot and the whole thing falls apart. I could definitely see them competing in the Western Conference finals but I will be shocked if the Utah Jazz are in the finals, let alone winning the finals.

Josh C.:

Yeah, like the old Mike Budenholzer Hawks where they were just this regular season juggernaut, could get you to the Eastern Conference final and would just get blown out by a team that is far more efficient and well set up for playoff basketball.

Kate Constable:

To your point, Alex, if one of the Jazz players goes out, they really don’t have the player power to, maybe, take the team to the finals. But with the Suns team, I would agree with you guys. I like the Suns to come out of the West, too, because they don’t have anyone in the MVP race right now, yet you have Devin Booker on your team and Chris Paul and De’Andre even. I’m not sure if he’s really in the MVP category yet but they’re not in the MVP race because they’re so balanced across the board, they’re not relying completely on one player to show up every single night.

Kate Constable:

And I think that long term is a recipe for a success because. If Booker’s having an off night, CP3 steps up and vice versa and you have that next man up where it’s not like a Giannis where he has to put up 35 a night or Kevin Durant or the Nets. I still would probably take the Nets or Milwaukee over the Suns but I think to get out of the West, having those two and having them not have to be a one A and one B but play at the same level of each other, I think, that’ll be very important for the Suns. So, Suns are my pick too, Suns across the board for all of us.

Kate Constable:

All right, let’s take a look at our best bets, see what is across the board for all of us on that, if any. Well, actually, no. Alex and I are playing the Kings-Rockets game but that’s about it. Alex taking the under, I’m taking the Kings but, other than that, we’re all on different games tonight. Raptors, Mavs, Sixers, Bulls, Cavs, we’ve got it all covered. Join us, place bets with us, let us know if you do, tell us in the chat and we’ll come back Monday and recap after a weekend of [inaudible 00:46:00] basketball games. So, hope you guys have a good weekend. Josh, I suppose it’s already Saturday where you are so I hope your weekend continues to be very nice, thank you for joining us on your Saturday morning but we will see you guys all back here on Monday. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook!

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