Kate Constable:
Good afternoon and welcome to the BetUS NBA TV Show. Josh C., Alex Christenson, Kate Constable here with you today. We have another very full day of NBA games. 13 on the slate today after only two yesterday. So, got a little break yesterday. Things ramp up again today. But, Josh, good day for you yesterday with the over in the Wolves/Knicks game.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. Nice and simple. Market just kept creeping up as well towards tip-off. I didn’t think it was ever really in doubt. The pace was pretty much what we needed it to be. The shooting eventually got there and that’s kind of all that mattered. Bit of a strange game down the stretch. Ultimately, the Knicks kind of just being the Knicks a little bit there. But, we’ll take the total win and we’ll move on to today.
Kate Constable:
If there’s one thing the Knicks do consistently, it’s blow games down the stretch, and we saw them do that again yesterday. Just not very good in that fourth quarter.
Kate Constable:
I was not very good yesterday. I took the Warriors team total over 116 and in hindsight… It’s always easy to say in hindsight that was a stupid bet. That was a stupid bet. But, the play there would have been… Alex, if you were on the show yesterday, you would have told me the Pistons team total under 102, 101, whatever it was, because they could not score the basketball to save their lives. So, I wish I had done that one. I didn’t. But, we move on and today’s a new day. Alex, did you have a good day yesterday?
Alex Christenson:
We live and we learn. I had a pretty great day yesterday. That was one of my plays, Pistons team total under. Was a little put off on it by the possibility of a blowout, but the way the Warriors have slowed down games and kind of basically looked at these as opportunities to get a win but also rest everybody has been… Led to some really ugly games. And then, I had the Timberwolves team total over, which went pretty well. Nice fourth quarter from them despite the Knicks kind of falling apart. Didn’t really matter. The Timberwolves just keep putting up points and with everybody healthy, you’re just an offensive threat every night.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. They’ve been scoring very well these last seven games or so, up in the 120 range, which is great for overs. But, today, tons of games and we have a lot on the slate today, so we won’t waste too much time and jump right into those as we always start. So, let’s take a look at our leaderboard and our record thus far. Things obviously still looking good. We’ve done a pretty great job on this show this year. I would really like to compare our record to some of the other BetUS shows, the college basketball, college football. I know that’s over, but how those guys did, because maybe I’m biased, guys, but we’ve been doing pretty well this season, so we will hopefully continue that today.
Kate Constable:
And, we will start with the Charlotte Hornets in Boston, taking on the Celtics. Celtics a three point favorite. Total’s 219 and a half. Both of these teams doing really well lately. They’ve won five of their last six games, both coming off of wins. And, Josh, you have a play in this one tonight. Tell me about it.
Kate Constable:
I do. I will be riding with my Celtics tonight, which will be a ton of fun and all sorts of emotions throughout the entirety of this game. You know, they’ve been winning games. I’m still hesitant to say they’ve necessarily turned a corner. It’s weird. Even during this streak, they haven’t been particularly pleasing to watch for the most part. But, they come into this one and they get a pretty favorable matchup and I think that’s kind of key here.
Kate Constable:
Looking at the previous matchup between these sides, the Hornets simply just have no one to guard Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum. They combined for 70-plus points in the first meeting this season. Last season, they were able to basically score at will against this team. I think that’s ultimately going to be the case again here. The Hornets defensively aren’t a great sight as it is, but particularly against big wings. They just don’t have the bodies to throw at them. Inside the paint as well, I think is where Boston has a pretty massive advantage here. With Al Horford, Robert Williams on the floor together, they’re a top five team in terms of offensive rebounding percentage. Hornets, bottom five in that regard as well.
Kate Constable:
So, ultimately, extra possessions, I think a lot of scoring advantages and a defense that I can trust for Boston. Probably the only part of the game right now where I know that I’m going to get some sort of consistency at that end of the floor. So, even though the Hornets are going to just push things and they’ll find ways to score and probably score in bunches as well, I think I can trust that defense to get enough stops and the offense to get going against a team that basically won’t be able to stop them for the very large portions of this game.
Kate Constable:
So, I actually come out at a minus five here, even with Marcus Smart out. So, that minus three, minus three and a half, if that’s all you can find, I think both are great value here. So, going to ride this Celtics team and potentially for the last time this season. They might join the Indiana Pacers very shortly if they can get it done in this spot.
Kate Constable:
Kelly Oubre is back for the Hornets tonight. Same with LaMelo Ball. They were both out last game. And, Oubre was just announced, or at least I just saw that he was announced back within the last 20 minutes. Does that change your mind at all, Josh? Or, he doesn’t really move the needle?
Kate Constable:
No. He doesn’t do a lot for me. He helps their second unit, undoubtedly, but ultimately it’s a nothing sort of piece for me in terms of the line at least.
Kate Constable:
Alex, total in this game 219 and a half. We know the Hornets like to play fast, but the Celtics can really slow things down. If they can get the Hornets in the half court, this game could stay well under that total.
Alex Christenson:
I actually think this is not an under spot. I was warming up to possibly an over play here. I think without Marcus Smart out… You know, Josh is right. There’s no one to stop Jaylen Brown. There’s no one to stop Jayson Tatum. But, you look at the Celtics side, there’s nobody to stop LaMelo Ball. There’s not really anybody to stop Terry Rozier. You know, those guys should be really good tonight. You know, Jaylen Brown will do a decent job on one of them, but the other one will just be kind of wandering around doing whatever they want against guys like Schroder. I think we’ll see a lot of Pritchard minutes tonight. I just… I think this game might turn into a track meet and the Celtics might kind of get sucked into playing a game more like the Hornets want to play rather than what they want to play and if that’s the case, it gets really tricky here.
Alex Christenson:
So, I was thinking maybe an over here. You know, pick the team you like, take a team total over. But, honestly, I look at my numbers and they kind of lean under and stuff. This is a tough game for me. My numbers are spitting out something that doesn’t really make sense to what I’m seeing and looking at, what I’m seeing on the paper. So, I think the over’s here and I think it’s just going to be a tricky game.
Kate Constable:
But, it kind of sounds like you would lean towards the Hornets on the side.
Alex Christenson:
I think this is a live betting game. I think you just… You watch. There’s going to be, I think, a lot of runs in this game. I think you’ll see some points where the Hornets come in and start to hit threes in bunches. The Celtics will probably call a timeout, kind of come in, grind out a few possessions. So, this could be a game where you have a chance to have honestly plus three or better on both sides in your pocket. So, I think maybe attack it that way.
Kate Constable:
Okay. Great angle there. Josh, though, taking the Celtics minus three.
Kate Constable:
The Minnesota Timberwolves in Atlanta tonight, taking on the Hawks. The Wolves won last night at MSG, beat the Knicks and Karl-Anthony Towns kind of had his MSG moment, and-one with 29 seconds left put the Wolves on top for good. So, they’re coming off of a win, but obviously that’s a back to back then. [inaudible 00:07:12] total’s 235 and a half. Alex, any thoughts on this game?
Alex Christenson:
I like this spot for the Hawks quite a bit here. I mean, the Timberwolves, a team that did well, got a team total over for me, like I said, last night. But, a team coming off not only a game in Madison Square Garden but a close win like that, a big moment like that, is really just going to be deflated coming out the next night. The Timberwolves, again, they finally have kind of all their guys together. This is the last game of a road trip before a game at home against Brooklyn, a game that looks a lot more winnable now with Kevin Durant being out.
Alex Christenson:
You look at the Atlanta Hawks. They continue to struggle a little bit from a winning perspective. Did finally get a win against the Bucks. Just really struggled kind of getting everybody healthy here and they’re finally kind of there. I mean, Clint Capela’s going to be out. You’d rather have him play tonight as well as Bogdanovic, but I think even without those guys, they have plenty to take advantage of a Minnesota team that I don’t think will be kind of at 100%, not only from a physical standpoint, from kind of a mental focus standpoint here.
Alex Christenson:
You know, all things aside, even kind of wiping those things aside, I still have the Hawks like three point favorites here. So, happy to grab one and a half before [inaudible 00:08:22] considering all that.
Kate Constable:
Josh, we saw the Hawks beat the Bucks, as Alex just mentioned. They were six and a half point underdogs at home. Beat the Bucks by seven. Is Atlanta maybe, now that they’re starting to get healthy, going to turn a corner here?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. They very well might. I think the biggest thing for them is just ensuring that they get continuity in that starting lineup and if they do, then they will be able to string something together. And, this does set itself up to be a really, really inviting spot for them. I kind of come at it about a minus two, so not a huge edge here. Maybe I sort of over-adjusted for the Hawks’ recent struggles and I’ll need to flip it back the other way once they do start stringing things together a little bit. But, it’s very much an Atlanta or pass spot. I’m passing just because I’ve been burned by this team in numerous situations where they have favorable… Both favorable matchups and favorable schedule advantages their way and still haven’t been able to necessarily get it done.
Kate Constable:
And, looking at the total as well, I mean, I think that’s pretty much on point. This figures to be an absolute shootout, a game where high variance either way could ultimately dictate it. So, I’m staying away, but it’s certainly a Hawks or pass spot. I think there’s no denying that. But, for me, I would lean overs if I had to make a bet on this game. Again, though, nothing official for me.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. I’m going to stay away from this game, too. Minnesota’s offense rating has been best in the league in the last eight games or so and the Hawks are terrible defensively. But, the spot that they’re in right now is far better than the spot that the Wolves are in. I mean, Alex mentioned all the points of they played last night, last game of a road trip. They have the Nets coming up. So, I feel like the Hawks is the right move here. I just… I’m with you, Josh. It’s hard to back them when they’ve been so bad lately and haven’t really proven themselves to me. So, [inaudible 00:10:10] Alex taking the Hawks minus one and a half in Atlanta tonight.
Kate Constable:
Cleveland Cavaliers in Chicago to take on the Bulls. Cavs are a three point favorite on the road here. Total’s 214 and a half. The Bulls have lost their last four games. But, lots of injury on their roster right now and the Cavs won their last five, coming off of what head coach J.B. Bickerstaff called a signature win over the Nets, so looking to keep things rolling tonight in Chicago. And, Alex, once again you have a play on this game.
Alex Christenson:
I’m going to continue backing this Cavaliers team. The market made a big adjustment towards them after they made kind of their long streak of covering. They went through some injuries, have a little bit of a clunky spot, and things have never bounced back. I mean, they still continue to be short favorites. Yes, they’re on the road here against teams that are not great. I mean, the Chicago Bulls have been fantastic but they’re not playing the Chicago Bulls tonight. There is no Zach Lavine. There is no Lonzo Ball. There is no Alex Caruso. You know? Again, Patrick Williams continues to be out for the year. I think that was just about it for the big injuries there.
Alex Christenson:
So, they’ll still have Vucevic. They’ll still have DeMar DeRozan. But, that’s not the Chicago Bulls. That’s not the team that we saw kind of blitz teams earlier to start the year, win big games still over the last couple months despite some of these injuries. But, I think this Cavaliers team… Again, with Mobley, with Jarrett Allen… You know, they are missing some pieces, but guys that they’ve been playing without at this point. It’s basically Rubio has been out. Rondo’s out. I’m not really worried about that. Garland’s healthy. The big guys are healthy. This just looks like a great spot for Cleveland, so happy to lay the short number here. I believe it’s only three points right now in a game where I have it closer to five. Tweak some stuff, I’d get as high as six or even seven. Again, it’s just a really bad cluster entry for the Bulls here.
Kate Constable:
Add Derrick Jones, Jr. to the players that are out for the Bulls. But, Alex Caruso is playing tonight. That was just announced recently. But, even with him in…
Alex Christenson:
I feel less good about that.
Kate Constable:
I mean, he’s a great defensive player. What’s that?
Alex Christenson:
Feel less good with Alex Caruso in, but I still think they’ll be fine.
Kate Constable:
Well, yes. He adds depth defensively for the Bulls, but he’s only played in four games since December 4th and in two of those games, he left in the first quarter. So, he’s hardly played in like a month and a half. I wonder what his minutes are going to be like and just getting back into the flow of an NBA game after sitting out first with injury. He was set to come back and then he gets into health and safety protocols and he was in there for quite some time. So, it’s been a while.
Kate Constable:
I still… That doesn’t deter me from taking the Cavs tonight because I’m playing them, too, minus three. They have the size advantage over the Bulls with Allen, Evan Mobley. Darius Garland, he’s an All-Star right now, All-Star caliber guard. I like him against the Bulls guards right now. And, just the way this Cavs team has been playing, covering the spread 12, five and one as a favorite this season. So, I am happy to back them as three point favorites tonight in Chicago.
Kate Constable:
Josh, any thoughts on this game?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. Joining you guys on the Cavs here. I come out four and a half, five, around that range. Basically, you’ve covered everything here. The injury situation for Chicago isn’t great. On top of that, I think even little rotation pieces… You mentioned Derrick Jones, Jr. Devonte Green as well. Javonte Green. Excuse me. Also out. You know, those things sort of matter as well, especially with Patrick Williams out for the duration of the season. They just lose a lot of length and a lot of those big bodies that could help them in matchups like this and ultimately they’re extremely thin up there and Vucevic probably just going to get bullied, I think, by this Cavaliers front court and that should set the precedence I think for Cleveland in this game to go out and just keep rolling.
Kate Constable:
Like you said, they show up every night. You know that you’re going to get the effort and intensity from them and as long as they do that, I don’t think Chicago can hang with them in this game. There’s just too many mismatches and advantages for Cleveland to attack offensively. And, defensively, the Cavs just have the length and size to basically disrupt Chicago, make life really difficult for guys like DeMar DeRozan trying to get going from mid-range.
Kate Constable:
So, yeah. Couldn’t agree more with basically everything you guys have said. Like I said, my number’s sort of between four and a half, five here when adjusting for some of those injuries. I think the Cavs roll, so the three still a pretty nice price even though it has moved a little bit since opening.
Kate Constable:
Neither of these teams made the play-in tournament last year, yet if the season ended today, they would both have home court advantage, which is crazy. But, Alex, do you see this lasting long term, the success for both of these teams? Or, is this kind of maybe a one year and they go back to where they’ve been?
Alex Christenson:
I think at the end of the day when it comes down to the seven game playoff series, take a big step back. The NBA has two seasons. There’s the regular season and the post-season. And, it becomes wildly different when you get these teams involved in seven game series when they [inaudible 00:14:53] time to rest players in between games but to look at a team and actually plan and put stuff in and maybe do a light practice where they can run some guys through some things, show them what they actually should be attacking game to game here.
Alex Christenson:
And, I think once Cleveland gets in [inaudible 00:15:07]… I actually feel more optimistic about Cleveland, honestly. With what they can do defensively with Mobley and Jarrett Allen, I think maybe they can be a little more disruptive. I’m curious to see. They have a lot of assets. I wonder if they’re… You know, can make a move here at the trade deadline to try to pick up maybe a nice offensive piece, one more piece here to fill it in.
Alex Christenson:
But, whereas the Bulls when fully healthy, again, could be scary. But, they’re not better than the Bucks when the Bucks are fully healthy and they’re not better than the Nets when the Nets are fully healthy. And, yes, Durant’s going to miss some time here but I think if anything, that’s going to teach Steve Nash to stop playing him 35 minutes every other night for weeks back to back on end and when it comes down to April, May and June, it’s going to be Harden and Durant and Kyrie and the Bucks are going to have Jrue and Khris and Giannis and it’s… You can’t beat that kind of star power here.
Alex Christenson:
So, I think both these teams will continue to play well. I think they can absolutely both have home court advantage here. I think that makes a lot of sense. But, you know, when things get tough, when they get into those seven game series, it’s a little bit early to ask these teams to make that big leap all in one year.
Kate Constable:
Talk about star power in the post-season. But, Cleveland has some star power in Evan Mobley. Josh, I don’t know if you have rookie power ratings at all or where you would rank him amongst some of the top rookies, but in my mind, he’s probably the top rookie right now. Would you agree? Where does he stack up compared to Cade Cunningham?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. It’s hard to disagree. I have some tickets and some bias towards Cade Cunningham and I’m hoping that his little slump that he’s going through in January is over sooner rather than later and he can sort of get back to putting up some big numbers there to help him. But, yeah. I think Evan Mobley is basically the pick of the bunch at the moment this season. It’s hard to disagree with that and I think he’s shown the versatility that is going to make him so impactful in the league for a pretty long time.
Kate Constable:
Maybe he will keep the [inaudible 00:17:00]. Go ahead.
Alex Christenson:
[inaudible 00:17:00] Evan Mobley’s the best, but shame on both of you for not bringing up Scottie Barnes. I think Scottie Barnes is just as good as Cade Cunningham has been all season and might possibly be better. I think Cunningham kind of has more inherent skills, but as a guard might actually be a little bit limited by what he can do from a larger perspective. Barnes looks awesome. I know he’s been kind of beat up, but I think it’s Mobley… You know, if you have a Mobley rookie of the year ticket, congratulations. You did a great job.
Kate Constable:
Who would you compare Scottie Barnes to? And, I’m putting you on the spot.
Alex Christenson:
An infinitely better Tobias Harris.
Kate Constable:
Okay. That’s fair. He’s… Yeah. He’s been great this year. I mean, he’s a huge asset to that Raptors team and one of the reasons that they’re successful. So, I don’t disagree with you.
Kate Constable:
All right. All three of us though playing the Cavs and liking Evan Mobley so far this season.
Kate Constable:
The [inaudible 00:17:52]. Alex is unsure. Memphis Grizzlies in Milwaukee tonight to take on the Bucks. Bucks are a six point favorite here. Total’s 229 and a half. Bucks are just two and six in their last eight games. They’ve been without Jrue Holiday and really struggled throughout those games. Grizzlies had their seven… Oh, seven. 11. Excuse me. Game win streak snapped by the Mavs. But, they bounced back with a win over the Bulls on Monday. Jrue Holiday is questionable for tonight’s game. So, I think he’ll be back, but still TBD on that.
Kate Constable:
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are without Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Desmond Bane. But, I am still going with the Grizzlies plus six tonight. Memphis loves these spots where their backs are up against the wall. They have that underdog mentality and they cover in those types of games. So, they’ve also been fairly deep. I mean, they’re getting solid production from Ziaire Williams. Steven Adams even can come in and provide a little bit. So, Jrue Holiday, if he’s in, that will definitely change the outcome of this game in terms of just the way it’s played. But, I like the Grizzlies to stay at least within six. I think the Bucks are going to win this game, but Grizzlies like to keep these games close and I think Ja Morant steps up big tonight.
Kate Constable:
Alex, I can kind of tell you are unsure about my decision here.
Alex Christenson:
I like your decision. I think you’re on the right side here. But, like you said, if Jrue Holiday is in, that complicates things a little bit. That gives them kind of just that extra guard piece where Morant isn’t going to be able to run around and kind of do whatever he wants. It gives Giannis more time to do the things that he wants to do. You know, a pretty decent spot schedule-wise for Milwaukee here. They come home after a loss in two games, usually a spot where they generally kind of pick things up and do very well.
Alex Christenson:
Now, Jrue will be coming back off injury, so who knows how much of him we’ll get. But, if he’s out, I think this is a great spot for Memphis. One of the things I was excited about this Grizzlies team before the season as I mentioned when we talked about the futures… From a regular season perspective, you want a team like this. Depth at every position, guys that can come in, guys that are athletic, guys that have some utility to them. I mean, people were disappointed in them moving Valančiūnas, which from kind of a micro perspective was a bad decision, but from a macro perspective, allowing Jaren Jackson, Brandon Clarke and some of those other guys to get more minutes has just been tremendously successful for them. Steven Adams is happy playing less minutes night to night. He’s a really good leader and it’s funny to watch him carry a grown man on a basketball court.
Alex Christenson:
So, a lot of things to like about the Memphis Grizzlies here. If it looks like Jrue Holiday is out, I’m definitely joining you.
Kate Constable:
That was a great move. He carried Tony… Tony Bradley?
Alex Christenson:
Yeah. Tony Bradley, Jr., a six foot 10, six foot 11 center in the NBA. He picked him up as if he was picking up a small child.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. That was when Bradley and Ja Morant got into it while the Bulls and Grizzlies were playing, obviously. And, what I loved about Steven Adams doing that… He just was stone cold, like face… No reaction or anything. He just kind of picked him up and placed him somewhere else.
Alex Christenson:
Nobody stopped him. Nobody got in his way. Not a ref, not an official, nobody from the [inaudible 00:20:55]. They’re just like, “Oh, well. I guess Steven’s going to take care of that and we’ll go over here.”
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Alex Christenson:
And, [crosstalk 00:20:59]. I wouldn’t do anything.
Kate Constable:
Well, I’m not getting in Steven Adams’ way. I don’t know who else would really want to do that.
Alex Christenson:
[crosstalk 00:21:04]
Kate Constable:
Josh, in terms of the total on this game, the Bucks play significantly slower without Jrue Holiday. 112 points per game to 102. But, the Grizzlies, they scored at least 115 or averaging in that area over their last 13 games. So, where do you see the tempo of this game, depending on who’s in?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. I would lean towards the under. It does look like Jrue Holiday is going to sit, in which case I do think it’ll be a slower paced game and one where the Grizzlies probably aren’t going to be able to exploit some of the opportunities they have against a lot of other teams this season, which has helped them generate points and helped sort of push that tempo up a little bit and that is generating turnovers and crashing that offensive glass relentlessly.
Kate Constable:
The Bucks do a pretty good job defensively in terms of securing the rebounds. Offensively, they do a pretty good job as well of taking care of the basketball. Even the turnovers they do make, there’s not a lot of live turnovers for the Grizzlies to be able to just push and run in transition either. So, if those things are limited and it does sort of come to fruition, I think we do see this turn into a little bit more of a half court game, points a little bit tougher to come by at both ends of the floor.
Kate Constable:
So, I would lean towards the under for sure. I do lean now towards the Grizzlies as well if Jrue’s out. I think that’s a pretty big one for me and moves the needle quite significantly in a matchup like this.
Kate Constable:
And, you said it looks like Holiday’s out. Are you surfing social media? Where did you hear that? You muted yourself.
Alex Christenson:
Yeah. We can’t even hear you.
Kate Constable:
Sorry. I’ve got a message that I’ve seen on my phone, so I’m going to trust this and say that it’s [inaudible 00:22:40] reliable and that he is trending towards playing. To not playing. Sorry.
Kate Constable:
Okay. Awesome. Josh is the new Woj bomb, dropping things on us mid-show. I like it. All right. I am playing the Grizzlies here plus six. Alex might get involved with me a little later today, but we’ll wait and see on that one.
Kate Constable:
The Raptors in Dallas tonight, taking on the Mavericks. Mavs are a three and a half point favorite. Total’s 208. Mavs are pretty hot right now. Nine and one over their last 10 games. And, Alex, you think that streak’s going to continue again tonight.
Alex Christenson:
Yeah. Talked about this a little bit on Monday when I backed the Thunder, how I was a little confused and Chris and I both kind of talk about how the market was maybe a little bit overvaluing the Mavericks and we saw that with Oklahoma City being able to keep that game a little bit close. I still think the price is a little bit high on the Mavericks, but I don’t think the market still has caught up with Toronto and the adjustments you need to make now when they’re kind of away from Toronto.
Alex Christenson:
They’re just… You look over the last month or so. It’s just been a marked difference here. Fred VanVleet is like two completely different people. It’s just unbelievable, the difference it seems to have made in his game here. You look at Toronto. They come off the loss in Miami here. They’ve got this game in Dallas and then one more game before they get to head home. So, not necessarily the best schedule spot, not necessarily the worst for them.
Alex Christenson:
Dallas sort of has just been sitting at home beating up on bad teams. They blew out Orlando. The game with Oklahoma City was close. Dallas still struggles to close games out, honestly. But, this just looks like a great spot for them, a good matchup. Again, VanVleet’s going to come in here. He’s been struggling. Brunson is just a great matchup. I think he’s going to be comfortable guarding VanVleet. I think he’s going to struggle. And, although Scottie Barnes is great, he can’t carry the entire load here. We’ll see what Toronto can do. Again, Nick Nurse, if anybody, can come up with a way to kind of lure Doncic into making bad decisions. But, it just… It’s going to be too much here for the Mavericks in a game where I have them at almost seven point favorites. So, happy to lay the four.
Kate Constable:
Josh, you also like the Mavs in this one. Where do you have them?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. I really like the Mavs here. I come out at about a six, six and a half, as well. So, I think there’s a lot of line value to be had. It looked like the last update I saw was that Maxi Kleber, Reggie Bullock both upgraded to probable, which is usually helpful as well in a matchup like this, I think, for them.
Kate Constable:
Much the same as what Alex said, though. The Raptors on the road this past month have just been a completely different team, which is not too surprising. I mean, you’re talking about not so much the travel, but you playing in an empty arena at home and then you’re going on the road to packed arenas and it certainly has an impact. I think we can safely say that, especially looking at some of the splits league-wide between last season and this season with fans back. So, that impact is certainly playing a part in the Raptors’ road performances.
Kate Constable:
Dallas, like you said, keep rolling at the moment. They are beating up on some bad teams, but they’re doing a pretty good job and they’re actually looking better at both ends of the floor than what I ever would have anticipated preseason. So, some credit for them being able to, I guess, create an identity, especially defensively. Offensively, I think they do still sort of come undone sometimes. But, they should be okay here and we’re talking about the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA in Dallas at the moment. The Raptors have been crashing the boards relentlessly. You take that away from them and I think that the Mavs should be able to control tempo here and basically grind this one out.
Kate Constable:
So, the number at the moment, three and a half, seems really short, even if you’re playing a four. No problem against that looking, like I said, at the fact that I’m sort of pushing closer to a six as fair price. So, like the Mavs in this spot, like the matchup for them a lot and… Yeah. Just keep fading Toronto on the road in the right spots.
Kate Constable:
As of late, allowing just 101.3 points per 100 possession recently. That’s the best mark in the NBA. So, on that end of the floor, yes. They are absolutely thriving. They play the Suns tomorrow night. Is that a little bit of a look ahead spot at all for Dallas?
Alex Christenson:
Could be.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. I don’t know.
Alex Christenson:
Yes.
Kate Constable:
I don’t know how much they’ll be looking ahead to it, though, either at the same time. I think they need to bank up wins. They know that they have a lot of ground to make up in that division race with Memphis, so taking care of home court is pretty important for them at the moment. Grabbing this win and then moving on to that Suns game and seeing what they can do.
Kate Constable:
Alex, you’re a bit concerned about it?
Alex Christenson:
No. It’s just I had thought about it this morning.
Kate Constable:
[crosstalk 00:27:05] best team in the league. How can you not look ahead a little bit?
Alex Christenson:
[crosstalk 00:27:08]. Yeah. I mean, it is a look ahead. I’m trying to remember why I disregarded it this morning. I did notice it. I think it’s kind of what Josh talked about. Dallas is kind of behind here in the division and just has to focus on winning games night to night. So, as much as it is a little bit of a look ahead, if there’s a team that can’t afford to do that, it’s the Mavericks.
Kate Constable:
All right. Well, Mavs minus three and a half. You like them even four. Obviously, maybe up to even six, Josh. But, playing them on the show here minus a three and a half over the Raptors.
Kate Constable:
The Pistons and the Kings face off tonight in Sacramento. Kings are a seven point favorite. Total’s 222 and a half. Pistons, they lost pretty big to Warriors last night, so tough loss there. But, the Kings… You know, middle of the road as of late. Not looking great, but definitely better than this Pistons team, Josh, would you say?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. I think it is fair to say that. You know, this is a game that they should be taking care of with absolutely no problem, even with Haliburton still unavailable for them. The Pistons… We’ve spoken about them and the Rockets in particular when playing back to backs. They struggle immensely and these young teams, they might have young legs but they still haven’t quite adjusted to having to play so many games in short periods of time, I don’t think, and the travel that comes with it in the NBA. So, I think again, a situation where Detroit just struggles to really get up for the game from the tip and they’ll fall behind early and it could be a game where they dial it in in the second half as a result.
Kate Constable:
So, as long as the Kings sort of put their best foot forward, at least offensively, creating… Taking the right shots and not getting carried away I think with chucking up threes when they’re not dropping, they should be fine here. They’ll be able to attack the rim as well. There’s little resistance from Detroit at that end of the floor. So, even though this number has sort of climbed to a point where it’s a little bit sort of tinkering with being unbettable for me… I loved it at minus five and a half. I kind of come at it seven and a half, so I’m pretty close to market here. But, I can still make a price for laying the flat seven as well. I think the Kings roll at home.
Kate Constable:
And, this is… I mean, they played last night against the Warriors, but the game before that, they played the Suns. So, three and four against the Warriors and the Suns. You’ve got to imagine they’re coming into this one tired. Alex, any play or lean on this game for you?
Alex Christenson:
It’s a bit of a quandary because the Kings should never be seven point favorites and the Pistons should never be getting as little as seven points. So, I can’t lay seven and I can’t take only seven.
Kate Constable:
So, what does that leave you with? A Pistons team total under.
Alex Christenson:
Going to bed early. I think that’s what I’m going to do. That’s going to be my suggestion. Go to bed early if you’re on the East Coast. If you’re on the West Coast, maybe spend some time with your children or significant others.
Kate Constable:
Josh, you’re in Australia, so this game will be in the middle of the afternoon. Are you going to watch this game or spend some time with your loved ones?
Kate Constable:
No, no. This is a perfect post-lunch appetizer. Just sit back and watch some terrible basketball and hope that it sort of goes in your favor [inaudible 00:30:08] [crosstalk 00:30:08].
Alex Christenson:
Don’t eat anything that might upset your stomach.
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
Yeah, exactly. Not while watching this. But, hey, I completely agree as well. Sacramento really shouldn’t be laying this many points ever. It’s… I think this is more about how bad Detroit are, not just as a team, but in this spot and situation.
Kate Constable:
All right. Well, Josh, you have a play on this game at Kings minus seven in this one.
Kate Constable:
Questions? Any thoughts on the Clippers/Nuggets game? Clippers are a eight and a half point dog in Denver. Total’s 213 and a half. I would probably lean to the under here. Clippers have been not putting up very many points and we know that Denver likes to play slow. Nikola Jokic not getting up and down the floor all that fast for Denver. So, I would probably, on just looking at this one quickly, play the under 213. What are you guys’ thoughts?
Alex Christenson:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
I have to agree with you. Yeah. Right there with you. I locked in under 213 and a half literally just before we went on to the show, so that’s something that I’ll be on. The line seems about right, I think. This is a tough spot for the Clippers. There might be some line value there. I think there’s a little bit of an overreaction to Nick Batum being out. But, then again, given how impactful he was against the Pacers, maybe he does really matter that much for them offensively at the minute.
Kate Constable:
So, I just… I struggle to see the Clippers scoring a lot of points in this one. A lot of one and done possessions for them and Denver should be able to control it as a result. If you don’t like the under, maybe the Clippers team total under not a bad look, either.
Alex Christenson:
Yeah. Clippers team total under is what I was thinking. If you want to play the Nuggets, lay some more points. And, it’s not just that Nick Batum makes a difference. It’s that now we’re going to see Justise Winslow play more minutes, more Terance Mann, more Amir Coffey. Someone named Brandon Boston, Jr. may be on the court tonight. I mean, again, I don’t claim to know every player on any team anymore, but I generally know the ones that matter and with all due respect to Mr. Boston Jr., his quality of work has yet to make it up to me.
Kate Constable:
And, Paul George is going to be out even longer, they announced yesterday. So, this Clippers team is really going to be struggling. They’re going to re-evaluate I believe again in two weeks or so. But, it doesn’t look like he’s coming back anytime soon.
Kate Constable:
Meanwhile, though, the Nuggets just got Bryn Forbes in a trade yesterday and let go of Bol Bol and P.J. Dozier. Those guys are headed to Boston, so Josh, your Celtics are getting a few good ones, but…
Alex Christenson:
You did it. You fired Danny Ainge. You got Bol Bol. Oh, and P.J. Dozier. Sorry. He has a cool name, P.J. Dozier.
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
It is. It is.
Kate Constable:
[crosstalk 00:32:44] cool name.
Alex Christenson:
That was a team full of cool names.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. But, that’s great. It’d be really good if that somehow transpired to wins, you know? Take what we can get at the moment.
Kate Constable:
So, how do you guys think [crosstalk 00:32:53]? I’m sorry. Keep going, Josh.
Kate Constable:
No, no. Sorry. I was just going to touch on that trade.
Kate Constable:
Yes.
Kate Constable:
I think the only win out of all of it is Denver, right? They got a piece that can actually contribute and help them right now and the bottom line for them is neither Bol Bol or P.J. Dozier were helping them in any way, shape or form and making life easier for Nikola Jokic, and Bryn Forbes will do both of those things. He will make life easier for Jokic and he will make… You know, he will be a positive contributor on the floor for them. So, yeah. No brainer for them. They come out on top. Everyone else, I don’t know. They’ll probably move the pieces that they’ve gotten or do something along those lines. I don’t think any of the other three involved, any other three players involved, will stay at their current teams for the remainder of the season.
Kate Constable:
Spurs were involved in that, obviously, sending Bryn Forbes. But, the Spurs got a 2028 second round pick. And, Alex, who was the player that went to the Spurs?
Alex Christenson:
A human being. He plays basketball. Juancho Hernangomez. With all due respects again. It’s kind of like you said, Kate. It’s one of those deals where the… Boston’s going to clear some salary cap space. The Spurs get someone in Juancho Hernangomez who is one of those guys that’s interesting to every team but no one seems to want to keep him or play him. And then, they’ll get, you know, as a result of kind of being there, pick up a nice shooter.
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Alex Christenson:
You know? San Antonio, again, probably a better cap situation for them and they scoop a second round pick. But, one of those kind of flotsam and jetsam trades that might end up mattering a little bit later on.
Kate Constable:
Bryn Forbes wasn’t playing a whole lot in San Antonio, but, I mean, he’s a talented player. We saw what he added to the Milwaukee Bucks in the post-season. Didn’t play a whole lot in the Finals, but he came up big in some of those series, so definitely could shoot the three, spread the floor for the Nuggets and make a little bit more of an impact there.
Kate Constable:
How about the Pacers and Lakers tonight? Lakers are a five point favorite over the Pacers, but we just don’t touch the Pacers. So, no thoughts on this game?
Alex Christenson:
We should end the show. [inaudible 00:34:54]. You can’t bet the Pacers. And, you really want to bet the Lakers?
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:34:59] [crosstalk 00:34:59]
Alex Christenson:
I mean, it’s Lakers or pass for me. I think it’s a pretty good spot for Los Angeles. I would bet the Lakers if I had to. But, no. Don’t do that.
Kate Constable:
No.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. It’s actually not a great matchup for them, either, especially if Brogdon finally comes back. I don’t know what’s going on with that situation. It’s getting weirder by the day, it feels. He’s been questionable for about two and a half or three weeks and gets ruled out before tip every single game. So, I’ve given up on waiting to get him back in the lineup for Indiana. But, agreed. It’s probably Lakers or pass, but then you should also always be fading the Lakers. So, it’s definitely a pass.
Kate Constable:
Myles Turner also out for a significant time, possibly til after the trade deadline with a stress fracture in his left foot. How does that change what the Pacers might do towards the trade because there were a lot of talks that they might deal Turner or Sabonis and try and get some different pieces.
Alex Christenson:
They should and it means they should even more. I mean, if Myles Turner’s going to be out for a long period of time, the season’s over. Tear it down. Get whatever you can for LeVert. Get whatever you can for Brogdon. Get whatever you can for Sabonis and Turner and these guys that are solid pieces and when they’re all together and healthy, make kind of an interesting basketball team if someone’s pulling the right strings for them. But, we’ve seen all of them are injury-prone, outside of Sabonis. He’s only had one real injury. Brogdon’s been injured his entire career here and there, little knicky knack things. Turner, too. LeVert… I mean, he has arguably the worst injury history of anybody in the league when you go back and look at some of the stuff that guy has endured. It’s unbelievable.
Alex Christenson:
So, you know, Indiana, though, is generally one of those teams where if you look historically at the franchise and the ownership, they don’t tear it down. They’re fine trying to compete for a playoff spot every year or so. As much as you look at a team that could maybe trade all those pieces and get back not just first round picks, but real legitimately good first round picks in another draft or two. That’s the other problem. I don’t know if next year’s draft is really spectacular enough to garner enough interest for that.
Alex Christenson:
But, I mean, if I’m running Indiana, I’m taking every call I get on anybody. I mean, nothing’s tied down for me.
Kate Constable:
All right. Well, Indiana, we’re still… Yeah, not very high on them all around. So, no plays on the Lakers/Pacers tonight and maybe just trade the whole team.
Kate Constable:
All right. Best bets for today. Once again, 13 games on the slate today. We’ve got a couple plays on the Cavs, a couple on the Mavs, the Hawks and the Kings. So, all over the place, but agreeing across the board on a couple of these NBA picks. So, let us know in the chat if you guys are on these, if you agree with us, disagree. We would love to know. Also, would love it if you could like, subscribe, hit the little alert button so you can know when we go live each day. Each day, 4:00 p.m. Eastern and we will see you back here once again tomorrow. Have a good night and check out the best sportsbook site.
