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Kate C:

Good afternoon. Welcome into the BetUS NBA Show along with Chris Farley and Josh C. I’m Kate Constable. I’m not sure if you guys caught this yesterday, but there was a big return last night in Indianapolis, the game between the Nets and the Pacers. Lance Stephenson back in the game for the Pacers last night and he goes off for 30 points. What do we think? Overshadowed, Kyrie a little bit?

Josh C:

Just a touch. I think we need to vote him into the All Star game after a performance like that. You can only judge him on what he’s done so far this season, and what he’s done was 20 points in the first quarter and absolutely balled out. So hey, kudos to him. But Kyrie was an interesting addition to the NBA odds world once again, and I’m sure it’ll ripple through over the coming weeks as well, and the Nets are probably going to start looking like that team a lot of us thought they would preseason.

Kate C:

Chris, you had a play on the Nets yesterday. What were you thinking in that first half? Because I also had play and I wasn’t feeling too well during the first half.

Chris F:

Yeah. I saw a tweet from a certain somebody that looked disappointed in the Brooklyn Nets at the first half. Yeah, I was very disappointed. What a spot again for the Nets, and they didn’t really show up in the first half but they… For many people, they pushed. I was lucky to get a minus seven and a half.

Chris F:

I think it’s an indication. Kyrie back, that’s what happens. They take maybe a second to gel and then things came together more towards the end. As much as I dog on Kyrie, it was nice to see him back. The guy is… It’s artwork what he does out there with his ball control and everything else. So it was good to see him back, and as much as I don’t really like the Nets, at least they pushed for a lot of people, but they should have covered even the nine, Kate. You’re on the right side of that.

Kate C:

So I personally got them at six and a half early in the morning, but then on the show here, the line climbed all the way up to nine. So I thought, “You know what? We’re going to play them at nine as well.” I love the spot they’re in tonight, and then the Pacers with about three seconds left, the Nets just let them go up, throw up an easy layup and don’t cover the spread.

Kate C:

So loss for me last night on the Nets, minus nine for my overall record here, but a couple good will wins for you guys on terrible teams. The Rockets cover. Josh, you also had the Thunder, not on the show, but personally. So are we riding with the bad teams going forward?

Josh C:

Yeah. It might just be a thing. It looks like it’s going to be a thing for me today as well. So another really uncomfortable day ahead, but we’ll talk about why there might be some merit to it.

Kate C:

Yes, we will, and we will jump right into that now and let’s start by taking a look at our overall record as always. Chris, I’m only two games behind you in the win column so you’re going to need to pick it up a little bit there. Overall though guys, 190, 166. Can’t complain about that at all.

Kate C:

Throughout the show, throw your comments into the chat feature. We will get those questions, comments answered towards the end of the show. We’d also love it if you could hit the little bell to sign up for alerts, subscribe to our page that way you know when we’re going live.

Kate C:

All right. So we will kick things off today talking about the Boston Celtics. They are in New York tonight taking on the Knicks. They’re a two point favorite. This total’s sitting at 207. Things really aren’t looking great for either team. They have identical records at 18 and 20. The Celtics played last night. They lost to the Spurs who were on a back to back, and now it’s Boston’s turn to play on consecutive nights here in the Mecca tonight. Chris, who do you like to cover the two points tonight?

Chris F:

As it started out virtually pick’em, but I was expecting this line to go up a little bit on Boston. So good to know I’m on the right side here, and if you take it team at two, that’s also virtually a pick’em. It’s something like 99, 98% of games and on two or more points.

Chris F:

So for me, this is going to be a, a Tatum and Brown game, and I think that they’re the difference in this contest tonight. The Knicks live and die by the three point basket and Kemba’s out tonight, Derrick Rose is out tonight, so that doesn’t help with that, and both teams defend the paint really, really well.

Chris F:

These are two pretty good defenses. Knicks are slowly getting better. The Celtics are pretty much there in a lot of categories. Although, of course they’re not as consistent as some of us might like, but I don’t think either team is going to have a lot of success in the paint tonight. So I think it’s going to come down who has a better shooters and for me, that’s the Boston Celtics easily in this contest.

Chris F:

Tatum… Even though they played last night and lost against San Antonio, Tatum had a bad shooting in that one and so I love that for Jason Tatum tonight to come out and kind of answer the call. Last time, these two teams face each other, Tatum and Brown both had bad shooting nights and the Celtics still won. So I just think this is…

Chris F:

First of all, I think that the Celtics are the better team, but I think they have way better shooters and then say what you want about Kemba Walker, but he’s been a spark for this team and he’s not going to be in tonight.

Chris F:

The Knicks Just can’t be good teams. If you look at the last two months of their schedule, they’ve only beat the Lakers and the Hawks, if you want to consider them good teams. Right now, the Hawks are not playing like a very good team and that was back when the Lakers were having a lot of injury problems. They’ve been beating up on teams like Houston, Detroit, Minnesota, and they’ve been handily losing to good teams in the NBA like the Nuggets, Philly, Chicago.

Chris F:

So this is just kind of the story for the Knicks this year. I think they’re very much a mid-tier team. At least, that’s the way they’re playing. Last time these teams faced, like I said, the stars on the Celtics didn’t even shoot that well and they still won this game. So I think the Celtics get right on the road. They’ve lost, I believe, five straight on the road. It’s either three or five. I can’t remember the number-

Kate C:

[crosstalk 00:06:03] check out that.

Chris F:

Yeah, but they need to get right in that area too. So I think the line is moving in the right direction. I like the Celtics tonight. Might as well just go with minus two instead of a pick’em. I know we have a question about that later because it’s virtually the same thing.

Kate C:

I’m with you Chris. I like the Celtics minus two, and I like them because of something you always talk about and that’s the motivational factor. You lose to the Spurs last night as seven and a half point favorites, and the way they lost. Jalen Brown got a steal with five seconds left, misses a layup. Not often you see an NBA player miss a layup like that.

Kate C:

So they lose by two instead of tying and sending the game into overtime, a disappointing way to end that game. Jason Tatum, 19 points, 6 of 20 shooting. So again, he’ll have a bounce back night, I believe. And then Brown talked about after the game that he wants to start playing through their bigs a little bit more in the fourth quarter. So if they do that, that might open the floor a little bit for the Celtics offense and so I like them to cover that minus two over the Knicks tonight.

Kate C:

Josh, the Celtics currently tie for sixth in defensive rating this season. The Knicks are fourth in the league over the last 10 games. So both teams playing decent defense as of late, which team do you think is going to struggle to score more tonight?

Josh C:

Yeah, both teams also playing pretty slow paced basketball as well. So it is interesting to see the total kind of take a push towards the over here. It is a relatively low number, but that being said, I still really like the Knicks team total under here. I think that the one thing you can say sort of rely on Boston at the moment is that defensively, they always seem to show up for the better part of the 48 minutes anyway.

Josh C:

I think offensively is where their struggles come. They have those scoring droughts in them unfortunately. They seem to still struggle to find a way to really snap out of that and find consistency from people outside of Brown and Tatum. I like those comments that you touched on there as well, that they spoke about wanting to go through their bigs more in the fourth quarter as well. That’ll just lend itself to probably a slower game if that’s the approach that they want to take.

Josh C:

The Knicks offense, we know how much it has struggled since Derrick Rose has gone down, since Kemba Walker has been out of that lineup. Again, they just don’t have the consistency from beyond the arc anymore. The last time these teams met, the Knicks scored 107. I think they scored 41 or 42 points in that third quarter and it was just a barrage of 3’s from Kemba Walker and Evan Fornier, and that’s the only reason that they managed to crack 100 points in that game.

Josh C:

You said Chris as well, the only wins that they’ve had… That Atlanta win as well. That was an Atlanta team that missed everyone on Christmas day because of the COVID issues. So they continue to struggle against decent teams and particularly good defenses.

Josh C:

I think that this is one of those games again, where they struggle to crack 100 points. The match up speaks to Boston’s advantages, I believe. I think that they have the personnel to shut down the likes of Julius Randle in particular. They have no problem in terms of size and bodying up there. They should do a good job as well controlling the boards. That’s one thing that they’ve done in both meetings so far this season with the Knicks. If they do that again, limit the second chance opportunities for New York, I think… Yeah, there’s a world where Boston pretty much comes close to winning this by double digits and the Knicks, like I said, probably score in the low to mid-90s here.

Josh C:

So I do like that Knicks team total under. I do like the Boston Celtics. I just can’t do it because I don’t trust that team. But look, my number is pretty much on market here for this one, and again, it also comes down to how you weight fatigue factor. If this wasn’t a back to back, I would have Boston, probably three and a half point favorites here. So I think as well… They probably didn’t exert as much energy last night as what I’ve accounted for so I do think that there is still some line value there for the Celtics.

Kate C:

Well, I’m glad that we’re all on the same side here with the Celtics and Josh, you playing the Knicks team total under is also a good sign for Chris and I taking the Celtics. These two teams also play Saturday, their next game in Boston so that’ll be interesting to see. What happens tonight and who’s able to bounce back or make the adjustments for Saturday’s game, but for tonight, Chris and I taking the Celtics and Josh taking the Knicks team total under.

Kate C:

The Warriors played last night in Dallas. They’re in New Orleans tonight taking on the Pelicans. The Warriors are a three point favorite even without Steph Curry tonight. Draymond Green is out and Juan Toscano-Anderson. But the Pelicans, they’ve lost four of their last five, both straight up and against the spread. Josh, with so many players out for Golden State tonight, is there an easy straightforward play here?

Josh C:

Yeah, there is. You just have to take the Pelicans. It’s really as simple as that. You take out Steph Curry, you take out Draymond Green. I’m looking at a Pelicans minus two and a half line by my numbers, and even that’s probably being kind, and not giving enough credit for how impactful I think those two are for the Warriors.

Josh C:

So we’ve already seen the market slightly adjust here. I think if you can still find the Pelicans at any sort of plus money, you have to take them in this spot. They’re pretty much as close to fully healthy as you can ask for. Warriors on a back to back. They’ve pretty much dialed this game in, I think it’s fair to say.

Josh C:

We saw them take a similar approach a few weeks back in Toronto, where they basically punted that game on a back to back as well after logging some pretty big minutes. Raptors ran out, I think it was 19 point winners on that at night. The Raptors admittedly a better team than the Pelicans, but they did have a few out themselves at that point in time. So a fully healthy Pelicans team, more than capable, I think of matching up and getting what should be a straightforward win for them against a shorthanded depleted team on a back to back.

Kate C:

Pelicans are also a lot better rebounding team than the Warriors. They rank 4th, 46.8 boards per game. Take out Draymond Green and Pelicans, that number might even go up a little bit more tonight. Chris, without Steph in the lineup, without Draymond, where do you have this number?

Chris F:

We’re talking about the total or the side?

Kate C:

Total or the side, either.

Chris F:

Yeah. I think the side is just about right. Of course, I think the Pelicans are the right side too. I think that’s the angle on this game. If the Pelicans have a spot to beat a really good team like this, then this is the spot for the Pelicans at home. So it’s time for them to step up and take advantage, especially as healthy as they are. Brandon Ingram and Valanciunas should have their way, especially with their length. They can get to the paint. Wiseman out too.

Chris F:

So Draymond Green and Wiseman out. That should free up a lot of room in the pain for those high percentage shots. Curry and Draymond are the most important players on the Golden State Warriors, both on offense and defense really because the way that Draymond Green facilitates the ball on offense is really important for the Warriors.

Chris F:

It could be the Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins show though. The Warriors have good depth and typically… They do have a culture where you could just see Steph Curry on the sidelines, waving a towel with Klay Thompson and getting excited because their bench players are playing really well. So never count the Warriors out, but this line is right where I have it. I have it at about two and a half. You still got to favor the Warriors I guess, but could see this going down even more. So maybe take it at plus three where you have it, but that…

Chris F:

I don’t really have much else to say. I wouldn’t touch the total on this one just because with the Warriors players out and really not knowing which New Orleans Pelicans team is going to show up…

Chris F:

And the Pelicans, I still defend them. They are a good team. They’re a solid team that can beat good teams in the NBA. It just isn’t consistent and we’ve talked about their bench on the show. They just don’t have as much depth. So fortunately, their starting five is going to get to go up against virtually the bench of the Warriors. So that’s a good thing for the Pelicans. Hopefully, they take advantage here tonight, Josh, but I can’t touch this game.

Kate C:

You talk about the total. I liked the total when this line first opened. It was at, I believe 220. Down all the way to 212. That’s a lot to do with the players that are out tonight for Golden State. But with Curry having a bad scoring night last night, you know he always bounces back with a big night the next night but that’s not going to be the case tonight because he’s not even playing. Josh, you are playing the Pelicans plus three.

Kate C:

The Detroit Pistons in Memphis taking on the Grizzlies tonight. This is the biggest line of the day. Grizzlies are 12 and a half point favorite. Total’s 218. These two teams couldn’t be at more opposite ends of the spectrum. The Grizzlies, one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Winners of six straight games. They’ve covered in all six of those games. The Pistons they played last night, lost to the Hornets by 29. They give up 140 points. Schedule spots similar for both teams, three and four. Josh, what’s the play here for you tonight?

Josh C:

Yeah. So here we go. The Detroit Pistons. I’m going to really struggle to make a case for this one, but look, I do come out at 11 and a half. So I don’t have a massive market number edge as of right now. However, we do still have questionable tags or it’s actually a doubtful tag now for Desmond Bane, which is huge, I think for the Memphis Grizzlies. What he gives them offensively, the spacing he provides is massive, especially when De’Anthony Melton still isn’t back in the rotation.

Josh C:

Dillon Brooks is questionable at the moment. Maybe he does come back. But again, if he’s another one to sit, then you’re looking at a really shorthanded, pretty depleted Memphis team that’s… Like you said, they love to get in the paint. They’re extremely successful in doing just that. Detroit likely getting Isaiah Stewart back though tonight. That’s a massive advantage for them inside and gives them some solid rim protection at the very least. He’s not on the injury report so I assume that means that he’s back. But again, it’s the NBA so who knows what surprises were in for over the next couple hours before tip off.

Josh C:

And like you said, the spot in terms of scheduling and games played and fatigue is pretty much the same, but for Memphis, it’s one of these awkward situations where they’ve had two on the road. They come back just for one home game and then they head to LA for two games against the Clippers and Lakers. I’m sure they’re probably looking ahead to those as well at the moment. So this really does land as one of those sandwich spots and there’s…

Josh C:

I don’t like to use the word let down spot, but that’s pretty much what this is for Memphis. And again, it’s still uncomfortable. I don’t want to have to be standing in front of this freight train at the moment because they are absolutely rolling, but the points at 12 and a half. I think it might even go up a little bit more to 13 in which case you absolutely have to jump on at that price and if we get some kind injury news, I think you’re going to be holding a very good ticket on the Pistons.

Kate C:

Chris, the Pistons put up 111 points on Charlotte last night. I mentioned they gave up 140 which isn’t great, but still scored quite a bit for Pistons standards. Josh likes the Pistons to cover tonight, which means they’re going to have to keep up scoring a little bit with the Grizzlies. Can they score enough to put this game over the total?

Chris F:

Yeah, I think so. Pistons games have been going over, like you mentioned. I do think part of that is Isaiah Stewart not being in there. He can be a force in the paint. Again, a player that’s not always that consistent either. Sometimes a little too aggressive, but I think he can be a difference maker for the Pistons on defense.

Chris F:

I love that Josh has taken this play. I think it’s absolutely the right side. When I saw this, when I… Gut instinct. I saw it and I was like, well… Even though Memphis is so hard to bet against Memphis right now, or even just period in general… They’re such a good and solid team, but this number just feels a little inflated. It feels a little too high, and then especially with these injury concerns coming up.

Chris F:

The Grizzlies don’t cover quite as well as a favorite, especially as a big favorite of six points or more. They’re around 50% in that area. So good but not up to the usual Memphis Grizzlies standards that we’ve seen. They just keep on proving teams wrong. If they’re an underdog, they just straight up win, et cetera.

Chris F:

To say some positive things about the Pistons. Saddiq Bey has been a beast lately. He’s been scoring a ton of points. Hee could have success, especially if there are some injuries on the Grizzlies squad tonight. Like we said, Isaiah Stewart is back. That’s a good thing for the Pistons, and the Pistons are an interesting team. They are against the spread when they have less rest, when they have a rest disadvantage and they they’re after… And they actually cover 57% after a loss. They do lose most of their games. So that’s a pretty good thing. So I also lean the Pistons side. I have this number around 11 so a little bit of value here. Just not enough for me to take it but Josh, I love that you’re taking it. You got to take these… You got to take these ugly teams sometimes so here we go. I’ll be cheering for you.

Kate C:

Yeah. Josh, two ugly games yesterday. You took both of those, the Rockets and the Thunder. So why not ride it with the Pistons again tonight at plus 12 and a half. Best of luck to you.

Kate C:

The Clippers in Phoenix tonight to take on the Suns, a Paul George less Clippers team. Clippers are 10 and a half point dogs. Total’s sitting at 221 and a half. Clippers came into this one having lost by 18 at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday. They’ve now lost seven of their last 10.

Kate C:

The Suns have only lost eight games all season but one of those came against the Clippers back on December 13th. So I could see this being a little bit of a revenge game for the Suns, but instead of taking the side, I’m going to play the over 221 and a half. Over the last 11 games, the Suns have had the top offensive rating in basketball. They’re averaging just over 118 points per game in their last five. Clippers in their last five, 106 points per game. So as long as the Clippers can keep their team total around that 106 average, the Suns scoring will take care of the rest.

Kate C:

They don’t have Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee or Jae Crowder, but that hasn’t been an issue lately. Jalen Smith has stepped up big. Bismack Biyombo has signed a 10 day and has been played fantastic. Just a few hours ago, it was announced that he signed a full contract with the team. So he’s a member of the Phoenix Suns now, and so with those two guys in, they really haven’t missed a beat with Ayton and McGee out of the front court.

Kate C:

So I like the Suns to score quite a bit tonight. I’m going to go over 221 and a half. Chris, you’re shaking your head, but I feel like you wished you’re kind of doing this.

Chris F:

Well, no. I think I’m getting a little scared Kate because I think you’re going to catch up to me. I think this is a… I think this is a good take here on the over. The four to five of the last Clippers games have gone to the over so we’ve seen that trend lately. I could see this being a big Chris Paul game on the other side, but I kind of think there’s some value on the Clippers tonight.

Chris F:

My line is around nine and I know they’ve been okay without Ayton and McGee. The thing that has me not taking the Clippers is they are not a good paint team at all. They can’t defend the paint. They don’t score in the paint. They really rely on that perimeter shooting and of course, with Paul George out… I don’t know. I just don’t know. I can’t figure this Clippers team out just yet, because it feels like if Kawhi Leonard was on the team this year, if Paul George was healthy, they would be a top 10 team. But without them, they’re tough to figure out. Now Zubac is out too. So I don’t know. Maybe you go with a Batum prop tonight or something. Maybe you can get fed a lot in the paint, but I think the Suns aren’t going to have any problem scoring points, especially from their perimeter shooters.

Chris F:

The Clippers have very good defense with their guards, but the Suns find ways to score no matter what, especially with CP3 facilitating the ball, and these Clippers games for whatever reason, they are going over lately. They’re not playing as good defense and I don’t know if that’s strictly because of the injuries. I don’t look at Paul George as a superior defender but maybe he makes a big difference with him being out too. I don’t know. Maybe he brings down the pace at least. So I have a lot of I don’t knows about this game, but I would lean to the Clippers.

Kate C:

Josh, any thoughts on your end?

Josh C:

Yeah, I’m leaning Clippers. I might actually get involved with it. I’m also at about a nine in this game, but it looks like Batum is going to play. Zubac wasn’t on the latest injury report either so it looks like he may have cleared health and safety protocol and might be available to play in this one, which would be a huge boost for them given how much they have struggled inside. In his absence, they also have no Isaiah Hartenstein who’s still in health and safety protocol. So those two for them have been pretty pivotal inside and helping stay in contention for rebound battles. I don’t think they win many, but it least we’ll help them in this particular matchup.

Josh C:

Like you said, the Suns just keep rolling. They keep finding ways to get it done. It seems like it doesn’t matter who takes the floor for them. So it’s a difficult one to have to bet against Phoenix but I think if we do get some positive injury news, I will probably take position on the Clippers here.

Josh C:

It’s a divisional game. It’s one of those games that’s always played closely. The Clippers always seem to step up against Phoenix, especially this season. So I don’t know if that’s to do with the fact that they got bounced by them in the playoffs last year, but there’s obviously something to it there and the matchup seems to suit the Clippers to a certain extent.

Josh C:

I do lean towards the over as well. I think that the points should be at a premium for both sides, presuming that the Clippers can get going. I think the only thing that would stop me from wanting to play in overs here is… You know that the Suns will probably find a way to get theirs. Can the Clippers be consistent enough and keep pace? And that goes both ways. I think there’s a correlation between them covering the line and this one going over the total and I might get involved in either, either one of those. Like I said, once we get some more injury news, but as of right now, staying away. Do still show a slight line edge towards the Clippers though, given that I do come out at pretty much closer to a nine, nine and a half.

Kate C:

Yeah. I talked about the Suns revenging their early loss this season to the Clippers, but this entire season might be a revenge spot against the Suns for the Clippers after they bounced them out of the Western Conference Finals. So I’m with you guys. I don’t quite know what to do with this 10 and a half. I think you’re on the right side with the Clippers, but that’s exactly why I’m just playing the total in this one because I’m not confident either way with the 10 and a half, but I am going to take the total over 221 and a half.

Kate C:

Questions. This is a great question. Can you explain to a novice better what a pick’em is? Josh, you want to take this one?

Josh C:

Yeah, sure. Essentially, it’s just a reference to when a line is basically two teams that are even, and there is no number handicapped either way so you can basically get even value or minus 110 each way for the teams just to win straight up on the money line is essentially what a pick is.

Kate C:

Chris, we’re both taking the Celtics minus two. Can you explain your strategy in taking a team minus two versus taking the money line or if it’s minus one or something that’s so close, why would you take them to cover two points versus just taking them to win outright?

Chris F:

Yeah. So naturally, a part of that is that the book is going to charge you more, juice it’s called, when you take the money line. So like tonight on the Celtics game. I believe the Celtics minus 125 or minus 130. So for every 130 or every $125 you put down, you would get a hundred dollars back. Whereas you take the line. It’s minus 110 or minus 105, you just get a better line, less juice there. So that’s part of it.

Chris F:

For me, usually my rule is if it’s three or under, I’ll just… I would always take the number instead of the money line because the vast majority of NBA games are always going to end above three. That’s more than one possession, right? So you might as well just take the minus two and a half or minus three at that point.

Chris F:

We start to get up to minus three and a half and minus four, then obviously all you’re thinking about is the number itself because you wouldn’t take the money line because then you’re paying for a lot of juice from the book. So everybody has their hard and fast rules on that but typically for me, I’ll always bet the number up to up to three. But sometimes, if it’s a one and a half and I think it could be a really tightly fought game, I’ll pay a little juice, maybe a minus 120 or something but typically I always go with the line and don’t ever…

Chris F:

I know we’ve talked about this on the show. Please do not buy points on NBA games. It is… There’s a lot of math about it that we can’t get into on this show, but it’s just not worth the value because the book is going to charge you exponentially more for that, and it’s really not worth the value of paying for that price.

Kate C:

Awesome. Well, good educational stuff here towards the end of the show. Send us any questions you guys have. Even if they are novice questions or you’re just a beginner better, Josh and Chris, Alex too, these guys have been doing it for a very long time. They have a lot of knowledge and can give you their strategies and tips. So questions like that are always welcome.

Kate C:

Turn our attention to our best bets for today. A very short slate. Celtics minus two for Chris and I. Josh taking the Knicks’s team total under. Also, playing the Pelicans-Pistons, and I’m with the over on the Suns. That is all we have for you on this Thursday.

Kate C:

Follow us on Twitter, both on our personal Twitters. I am @KateConstable. Chris is @ChrisRFarley1 and Josh is @punt_school. And then, the BetUS Twitter… What is it guys? I’m blanking.

Alejandro:

@BetUS_NBA.

Kate C:

There we go. Look it. Our [crosstalk 00:27:50] producer, Alejandro giving that out there for us. BetUS_official. Give us a follow there, like the page, subscribe and we will look forward to seeing you back here tomorrow to close out the week. Have a nice night and don´t forget to check out our sportsbook.

 

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