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Kate Constable:

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us here on the BetUS NBA Show. We have Josh C. Josh C, Chris Farley, backwards. Interesting. I’m Kate Constable here with you today. Chris yesterday was a very tough day and we need to talk about it, to get it out of the way. That way we can move forward. But some interesting things happened yesterday in the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers game. Josh, I know you were not on the show yesterday but on the same side as Chris, you took the Heat, which was the right play but they didn’t end up winning. What all went down just and how that whole thing transpired yesterday?

Chris Farley:

Shall I start, Josh? This was boy-

Josh C:

The floor is yours, Chris.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, this was probably my worst beat of the season only… Well, and I don’t even know if you could call it a bad beat but just the fact that the Heat didn’t play up to their potential whatsoever. I was talking to one of my colleagues in the NBA betting odds world today, he’s a big Heat fan. He was saying how Spoelstra and some of these spots against inferior teams let’s down really often. That hasn’t been my experience with the Heat, they’re usually a team that gets up for everything. But I can’t also claim to watch every single Miami Heat game since 2010 like this guy. So maybe that is a pattern for the Heat, I certainly didn’t see it coming. We had what nine, 10, 11 points of closing line value at the end of that? That opened a plus-three and a half at a few books. That was really tough to get and then to see it go up to minus-eight and for that result.

Chris Farley:

Sometimes you can be on the right side. You can get a fantastic line but this is still sports betting and is still gambling. The 76ers played really well. I was talking to Josh about this before the show too. I would’ve preferred if James Harden was in this game, so he can ball hog it a little bit, slow down the game. Disrupt the continuity and the chemistry of their offense. I think would’ve happened without Embid but both of them sitting turned out to be maybe some fire up the you know what of the collective 76ers. The Heat did not respond.

Chris Farley:

Probably the most surprising thing for me was how the 76ers controlled the paint. That doesn’t happen against the Heat and it happened without Embid. So I could go on and on and complain about this game but at the end of the day, this is why you don’t over invest. Bankroll management is so important and we move on and it was still the right side. I would’ve bet that 100 times out of 100.

Kate Constable:

Josh, what did you make of it all?

Josh C:

It sucked. It had pretty good market entry point on that game as well and it didn’t transpire. Just second to what Chris said, this is still sports betting and gambling, if you will, so it’ll happen. But also, it’s still the NBA, and these things can absolutely happen in the NBA. The talent level of the players in every roster is still very, very high and at an elite level. So as bad as the rest of the 76ers might be or not so much bad but I guess the drop off after Harden and Embid, they’re still extremely talented. If you don’t show up and put your best foot forward, that’s exactly what’s going to happen any given night. We see it time and time again, in other situations throughout the course of the season. So this one, no different, where we just didn’t get the fully engaged Miami Heat. They, unfortunately, got what they deserve. So we were on the receiving end of that one. But we go again, we dust ourselves off, and then we pretend it never happened as they say.

Kate Constable:

It’s a great thing about the NBA, there’s always games the next day. It’s not like the NFL, where you have to wait a whole week, and think about your losses. You can just move on. Although one team that might be thinking about their loss a little bit more today is the Detroit Pistons. They lost to the Trailblazers yesterday. Pistons were a nine point favorite, only the fourth time all season they’ve been favored. That was the largest margin of spread, margin for the Pistons in terms of being favored. Minus-nine over the Blazers and Portland beat them outright yesterday. So that was a tough one, too, Chris,

Chris Farley:

It was. It hindsight’s 2020, of course. But if I could go back and recognize too, that their 10 and 0 streak of covering halftime ATS lines. That was very public information at that point, wildly distributed. It’s almost as if the sports books knew and used it against us. There’s two angles to take on that game. It’s one of the least talented rosters in the NBA and the Trailblazers. So either you play against them or you recognize that the Pistons are not used to being a favorite of this size. You play at a very uncomfortable size on the Blazers. Turned out that was the right way to go about it. We never see the Pistons as seven-point favorites, so that stinks. Obviously, the books won a ton on that one too. A lot of money came in on the Pistons, went up to nine. So the books had a great day yesterday. Let’s change that today, right, Josh?

Josh C:

Fingers crossed.

Kate Constable:

Yes. So we’ll start by checking out our overall record as we get going. I had a loss yesterday, talk about hindsight. Cavs minus-five and a half over the Lakers. Yeah, the Lakers are absolutely terrible but they didn’t look all that bad yesterday. Russell Westbrook had 20 points, LeBron James had a triple-double, a nice poster over Kevin Love. So yeah, just one of those days where we kind of like to forget about it and move on. Alex was the only one with a win yesterday. He went one and one, getting that Celtics team total over 115 to hit yesterday. So we’ll start things off today, talking about the Atlanta Hawks and the New York Nicks in New York. Hawks are a three-point favorite at Madison Square Garden. Total here is 226 and a half. Atlanta hasn’t beat the Knicks in the regular season since February 9th, 2020. The Knicks have won all three meetings this season, obviously, that means, and by at least nine points in each of those games. Josh, do you think the same type of thing happens tonight where the Knicks are able to cover this spread?

Josh C:

I’m pretty bullish on the Hawks in this situation and they’ve been playing terribly. So it’s not an easy side to necessarily get involved with here. But that’s my MO, I guess on the year, where I just finding these teams. Try and scooping them at sort of their bottom point. I think that’s pretty much where we are with Atlanta right now, in particular. The Knicks, like you said, three and 0 against the Hawks this season, after being knocked out in the playoffs by this team. I don’t see a world where they go four and 0 against them in a season series to be perfectly blunt. I think that’s got to be the primary point of emphasis here and the one thing that stands out more than anything else. The Hawks will absolutely know full well what’s at stake for them in that regard. So we should get a really engaged and honest effort out of them coming out of the gates.

Josh C:

Couple that now with Julius Randle being ruled out, I think that’s pretty big for New York. They’re not a team that has had to deal with a lot, in terms of starting personnel being out, aside from the guard rotations. But someone like Randle, whose usage is so high for them offensively. To remove that from a starting lineup, I think is going to have pretty significant effect in that opening 12-minute period, in particular. Where they’re kind of still going to have to try and figure things out a little bit. Who’s going to pick up the load, where are the shot’s going to go, what’s the distribution going to look like? Atlanta, in the meantime, that starting lineup pretty much knows its roles inside and out. So I think the Hawks come out this first quarter, like I said, completely engaged, best foot forward. I’ve locked in a first quarter minus-one on the Hawks here. I think that’s probably the strongest look in this game. I wouldn’t be against necessarily a first half or even a full game. Like I said, I am pretty bullish on Atlanta being able to show up in this position. Looking at some of the match ups that they can take advantage of, I think as well is quite generous for them.

Josh C:

Those losses, having looked back at them as well. There was quite a few outliers for Atlanta in terms of inability to get to the free throw line, which is not like them at all. If they get towards that season average for them, which is around 23, 24 free throw attempts per game, that’s a pretty big discrepancy for what New York will manage. I think on the other end, those three points, if you will. They’re pretty hard to come by, I think for a Knick’s team. Who offensively can go really ice cold we know, especially with their starters on the court at any given time. So I have, like I said, locked in that Hawk’s first quarter minus-one. I think that’s the strongest look in this particular matchup. But I’m also not against the first half or a full game here for Atlanta. I think it’s the absolute right time to buy in on them.

Kate Constable:

Well, knowing that the Knick’s offense can go ice cold at times and Julius Randle is not on the floor for them tonight. I’m going to play a total on this one and take the under 226 and a half. Of all three match ups that they’ve played this season, the highest total is 225, which is still lower than tonight’s total. The first two games ended at 189 and 188. So that’s well below this line. Without Julius Randle in for the Knicks, the Knicks actually allow less points. They’re better defensively without Randle in. 111 points with him on the floor, compared to allowing just 102 without him on the floor.

Kate Constable:

As good as this Hawks offense is, that’s where they’ve won games. It’s not on the defensive end, they’re terrible defensive team. They win because they have a high powered offense. But in the last five games, their offense has regressed a little bit. They’ve gone from being number three in offensive rating throughout the season to number 12 in the last five games. So neither of these teams really like to get out too much in the fast break, either. Both bottom six in fast break points. So without them getting out and running in the Hawks offense, taking a step back a little these last few games. Then Julius Randle not on the floor, maybe ups the next defense a little. I like the under 226 and a half. Chris, you’re not playing anything officially in this game. Why is that?

Chris Farley:

Well, Josh is talking me into a Hawks play and I’m almost willing to just trail Josh in anything right now, with the heat he’s on. But yeah, this should be a pretty contentious game. I think this is probably the closest game that we’ll get for a while that’s going to have a playoff feel. These teams are playing for that play-in spot. The Knick’s a little bit still outside of it and the Hawks are sitting in right now. So I just think that’s a good thing for the under in this one.

Chris Farley:

These teams, they match up really well against each other, I think. They kind of remind me of each other too. Just flawed teams, not very consistent teams. Probably a little too predicate on the three-point shot. That’s going to be a key in this game. But I think that they both know that about each other, it’s like looking in the mirror. So they’re going to make sure that they defend those threes. I think that drives down the total and this one as well. The key for this game for me is I’m looking at Mitchell Robinson and what he can do down low. The Hawks front court has been kind of fake news. Clint Capela has been playing a little better recently in some games but it’s like off and on, off and on. Collins is still out. Mitchell Robinson, he can stack up rebounds and his prop is probably around 12 or 13 right now. There might not be a bad look on the Robinson’s rebound prop.

Chris Farley:

The Hawks have just been getting burned in that area. Valanciunas had a great night against them and a few other bigs. Now, especially with Julius Randle out, opens up more opportunities for Mitchell Robinson in the front court. But I would’ve liked them anyway. So there’s a lot to look at. It’s going to be a fun game to watch either way, definitely lean towards the under. I think the Hawks definitely have an advantage of this one, too. It’s going to be hard to imagine the next going four and 0 against Atlanta. Two playoff teams last year, right, who real battled. So this game probably means more to Atlanta.

Kate Constable:

This is the first time Trae Young has played in Madison Square Garden since the playoffs last season. He missed the Christmas Day game in health and safety protocols. We know last season during the playoffs away that Knick’s fans treated him. So there’s a good chance Trae Young just goes off tonight, which would be great Josh for you in that first quarter bet. So Josh, [inaudible 00:12:02] the first quarter-

Josh C:

Yeah, as long as [inaudible 00:12:02], right?

Kate Constable:

Yes.

Chris Farley:

He was a savage at Madison Square Garden in the playoffs. That was awesome to watch.

Kate Constable:

He was. I feel like he thrives in those environments.

Chris Farley:

Yeah.

Josh C:

Yes.

Kate Constable:

Most players love situations like that. They love to be the bad guy going into someone else’s home court and delivering some bad news. All right.

Josh C:

Exactly.

Kate Constable:

Yes. All right, well, Josh playing first quarter minus-one, I’m taking the under 226 and a half. Next up we have the Bulls and the Bucks in Milwaukee tonight. Bucks are an eight point favorite, total is 233 and a half. The Chicago Bulls are coming off of a solid win over the Raptors last night. Milwaukee hasn’t played since losing to the Wolves on Saturday. Although, Giannis Antetokounmpo was not in that game and he’s questionable for tonight. The Bucks have won both meetings this season. So, Chris, who are you looking to back in Milwaukee here tonight?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’m sure Giannis plays tonight but Khris Middleton now is a pretty big deal. Hopefully, Zach Levine plays for the Bulls. I’ll start here. I wanted to play on the dog in this game to start because every one of these games had been close this year, the past three games have been close. Now, that it’s up to eight, it’s kind of a tough line not to take advantage of a Chicago Bulls team who is surely not totally in their groove just yet. But I think they’re starting to show it. They were impressive last night. The ball movement was really good, Alex Caruso is clearly warmed up. The three point shooting was really solid in that game. The Chicago Bulls were a fantastic three point shooting team at the start of the season. That’s why they’re blowing past a lot of teams because they could go up and they could go up quickly. If you’re giving me eight points here with Chicago, I know it’s a tough spot because it’s a back-to-back. But Milwaukee to Chicago, that’s not very far. They probably stayed at home last night, short little drive over to the arena. Whereas the Bucks, they don’t need this game as much as the Bulls.

Chris Farley:

The Bulls are in danger of slipping into that seven spot in the playoffs where they would have to play in the Play-In Tournament. Without Clumsy, they’ve [inaudible 00:14:02] recently, they can certainly lose one of those games. Giannis is going to be Giannis in this game if he plays. Last time I saw he was probable but I liked what the Bulls did in the front court against a really good front court in Toronto last night. If they can repeat that effort, that’s a buy sign full the Bulls tonight. Again, tough spot for them but eight points just feels like the right side. I think it’s more important for the Bulls and for what it’s worth, I woke up, and I’m like I’m going to parlay the Bucks money line and this money line. I’m going to get this money back from yesterday. Don’t do that kind of thing. You got to retreat. You got to look at this and where the value lies. I think the value today is with the Bulls.

Chris Farley:

The Bucks are in a great position right now, so they just don’t need it as much as the Bulls. Really, that’s my main narrative in this one.

Kate Constable:

Josh, you’re also playing the Bulls tonight?

Josh C:

I’m playing the Bulls. I don’t love it, I just haven’t had good experiences with Chicago all season long. This number now did creep up on the back of Levine being listed as questionable for injury management purposes. So I don’t know what that means in terms of whether he’s more likely to sit or to play. Obviously, I would much prefer to have him available and on the court. I honestly thought that they would play everyone in this spot to be perfectly honest. Yes, it’s a back-to-back but they had two days rest coming into this back-to-back. They start a five-game sort of rodeo trip here, with a day off in between every other game. So yeah, I thought that I was quite confident anyway that we wouldn’t have any Chicago injury news to have to negate but here we are. Which means you do get a better entry point on them but at the same time, I think it also might be better to just wait and get confirmation. If he’s out, it might even climb a little bit higher. You’ll get at least an eight and a half. I don’t know if it pushes nine, to be honest. I think we’re already kind of at that number where it would be if he’s out.

Josh C:

So Chicago, yeah they do probably need it a little bit more than what Milwaukee does. It’s the Khris Middleton not being available, that’s big for me. I think what we’ve seen from the Bucks this season is when one of Giannis, Khris or Jrue isn’t available, we don’t get the same level of offensive output, in particular, from Milwaukee. That’s going to be concerning against a Bulls team, who we know offensively doesn’t quite have the issues. It’s defensively that they’ve struggled to sort of keep teams at arms length. But like you said, Chris, we saw something from them last night in that Toronto game defensively. Fred VanVleet spoke about it after the game as well. That the Raptors were caught out a little bit and a little bit surprised by the physicality the Chicago showed, especially inside. Not allowing those Raptors to get to their spots. I think if they can bring that level of intensity at the defensive end in a game like this, they’ll do enough to hang around I think for the duration of the four quarters. That’s basically all we can ask for when you’re getting this many points anyway. So I do expect Giannis plays. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Levine. So like I said, I will be riding the Bulls. Maybe if you haven’t already bought in on them, just wait and see what your best number and entry point will be there.

Josh C:

But in a division game that matters, I don’t think that Milwaukee can justify laying this many points. Especially first game back off of a West Coast road trip. We see this so often where East Coast teams just fall flat a little bit. They do struggle in that first game back. So if we get much the same here in a bit of a flat spot, excuse me from Milwaukee, I think Chicago’s certainly able to capitalize.

Kate Constable:

I like the Chicago play, I really do. I’m a little worried because the Bulls are really bad against good teams. They’re four and 15 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of 600 or better, which is not great. But that being said, Alex Caruso is finally back. Patrick Williams played in his first game back yesterday. I don’t know how much he’ll necessarily play tonight as he starts to kind of recondition. But the Bulls are starting to get healthy. We saw their defense tick up last night, be a little bit more aggressive. So to cover eight, possibly eight and a half if Levine is out, I think that’s doable. But the Bulls just haven’t shown that they can consistently cover a spread against really good teams. So we’ll have to wait and see.

Chris Farley:

Kate.

Kate Constable:

Yes.

Chris Farley:

Kate, I’m really glad you said that actually because I’ve been playing on a lot of trends that tend to work against me. So good to know that there’s a trend against me but also and I’m going on the opposite side of that. So that’s good. One thing I forgot to mention is that trend’s true. Also, the Bucks at home this year, for whatever reason, they’re not as good at home. They’ve only covered 37% of their games at home, which is kind of strange for a Bucks team that usually thrives. It runs up and down the floor at home. So two competing trends here, we’ll see which one matter and hits in the end.

Kate Constable:

Josh, you’ve said this on the show before, you can find a trend for absolutely anything. So take the trends with the grain of salt because yesterday the trend was Pistons have covered the first half in their last 10 games. 10 and 0 ATS in half. What do they do last night? Don’t cover the first half, don’t cover the full game. So take trends with a grain assault in terms of all of these stats and numbers that people are throwing out. Where your guys’ analysis of how both teams are playing and how they’re matching up and things like that are probably a little bit more important when you’re capping these games.

Chris Farley:

By the way, here, here’s a trend that always hits. When I play against the Lakers first half, they always cover. So just remember that.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, same. Anytime I play against the Lakers, they always cover, hence yesterday.

Chris Farley:

They always cover. That’s a trend you can rely on, Josh.

Kate Constable:

75 and 0 against Chris this season, whatever that is.

Chris Farley:

Yeah, it’s probably true. All my losses are because of the Lakers. All right.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, hopefully not a loss here tonight, Chris and Josh both taken the Bulls plus eight over the Bucks tonight in Milwaukee. Clippers and Nuggets are in Denver tonight. Nuggets are six and a half point favorites. Total here is 222 and a half. Big Western Conference showdown. Clippers have lost their last three, they sit in eighth place in the standings. While the Nuggets, they’re trying to stay out of the Play-In game. They’ve lost their last two and are hanging on to that sixth seed. Nuggets own this season series two to one but all games have been very, very close. Chris, what are you looking at in this game tonight?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I like that every game has been really close. The Clippers have also covered every single one of those games this year. [Sharps 00:20:37] jumped on this right away, so a lot of money coming to Clippers. So went down from eight to six, back to six and a half now. But I agree with that movement. Clippers have a four point cover rate per game this year against the Nuggets. I think it makes sense. The Clippers, obviously, a team that’s a little up and down but they still post a top 10 defense. They have all year, it’s been relatively consistent. We know that the Clipper’s reputation too, especially on defense is because of how they guard the perimeter. Now, no Kwahi, no Paul George, no Pat Beverly anymore. These things have certainly affected the Clippers but they still do that at a very high level. I think it makes sense that they’re a challenge for a Nuggets team that’s obviously so Jokic-dependent. If they can take away some of his supporting cast, that puts it all on his shoulders. He’s capable. He’s won games 50 points-plus and the Nuggets just ride him.

Chris Farley:

But this is a conference game, it’s a conference rivalry. These two teams know each other really well. I like the way that the Clippers match up against this team. For what is worth, Ty Lue, he’s really out to prove something this year. The Clippers are coming off two losses, they’ve been ahead of the Lakers all season. You got to love that. There’s no chance that the Lakers are going to catch them… There’s a chance but they certainly don’t want the Lakers to catch them in their spot right now. Also, for what is worth, these Nuggets, they don’t cover well. They’re 13 and 16 after loss. I know here comes more trends but they’re not good in conference games. They’re not good as a home team. They’ve failed to cover six out of their last eight games. This is a Clippers team I think that can take advantage of their elite defense. We’ve seen them come back in a lot of games, so maybe that’s another angle too. If they go down early, look for them to possibly cover in the second half. We’ve seen them come back from 30-plus against teams like the Jazz. So they can certainly do it here against the team so Jokic-dependent in the Nuggets.

Chris Farley:

I have to go with the dog here. It started with what you said, Kate, all these games have been really close. I think this one will look very similar.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, Nuggets won the first game by three points, Clippers won the second game by two. Then the Nuggets won that third game by two points. So all very close games. Josh, if you had to have a play in this one, you don’t have an official one. But would you look to play the side or the total or maybe a prop?

Josh C:

If I had to make a play here, I think I would probably lean towards overs actually, which is a little bit strange for these two teams. But Denver offensively should be able to get what they want. Jokic has dominated this Clippers team for quite some time now and will undoubtedly do so again, tonight to a certain extent. The Clippers do defend the paint really well but when you get this unique specimen, that is Nikola Jokic in there. Not only is he such a formidable force but he just opens up the floor for everyone else. When there’s teams like the Clippers, like the Raptors who sort of… Miami Heat, another one, that do a really good job of sort of collapsing in the paint on the ball handler, it leaves space on the perimeter. When you do that, Jokic will find whoever it is that’s out there. The Nuggets do have some shooters that can get hot in a hurry. If they’re able to sort of find range and rhythm early on in this one, I think they do put up a pretty decent score line themselves.

Josh C:

But Clippers, they’re sort of rocks and diamonds offensively. They’re probably the hardest team for me to handicap, I think this year. Just because they are so [permeative-centric 00:24:03] offensively. But there is just no consistency to it, even within the one game, they can have a half where they shoot 16%, 17% from deep. Then they have another half where they shoot 50% to 55% from deep. We’re talking high volume shots here as well, not just five to 10 shots in a 24-minute period. So it’ll be one of those situations, where if the Clippers do start making their shots from deep, which they will be given the opportunity to do so against Denver as well. I think the Nuggets do give up some looks, especially on that corner three, where the Clippers are able to generate a ton of really good looks through their sets. It’ll be a case where this game could potentially sail over rather comfortably, I think there is a world where that happens.

Josh C:

It’s not one that I feel particularly confident about just because, like I said, I think the Clippers are one of those teams. It’s just extremely hard to handicap this season. But if I were to pick anything, I would go the overs just based on the game script I think that’ll take place.

Kate Constable:

Chris, you made the point that Ty Lue’s done a great job with this team this season. Without Paul George, without Kwahi Leonard, your two best players are out basically… Well, Kwahi the entire season, Paul George, half of the season. Yet, you’re still in a spot to be in the play-in. He really has done a very good job with this team in getting these players to buy in and come out and compete every night. That’s not an easy thing to do with the roster that he has and then the injuries and all the adversity and setback that this team has gone through this season.

Chris Farley:

Yeah and I read an article today about Ty Lue and just how the players feel like he’s the best player on their team. That’s a unique situation that they have going there on the Clippers, Ty Lue, obviously. Maybe even wanting to get back on the Lakers for some previous instances, who knows. But this is a team that really believes in their coach. I think they kind of circled these spots, right, obviously, in conference game. So we’ll see if Jokic can hold them up as much as he’s going to need to tonight. I think that’s not the best version of the Nuggets, right, as when Jokic has to do a little too much, just like Luca. So hopefully, for my case, we’ll see the Clippers actually keeping this close again.

Kate Constable:

I hope they do. I hope they stay within six. You’re playing them plus six and a half tonight.

Chris Farley:

By the way, sorry, I keep talking. But Paul George is starting to work out again, so there’s a chance that he’s in the playoffs and I don’t know. There’s a chance. So not that the Clippers are going to go to the championship because Paul George is returning but makes them a little better, for sure, on offense and defense.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, throws a wrench into everything that’s going to happen come post-season in the Western Conference, for sure. All right, we’ll move on to a few questions. Thank you all for sending those in. First one, Josh and Chris, what do you make Golden State, Orlando total? I’ll tell you what it is at BetUS once you guys tell me your predictions.

Josh C:

Yeah, this is an interesting one where my numbers sort of tell me that there’s an edge on the overs. I personally would play the unders if I had to pick a side. One of those situations where I guess it’s hard to properly gauge and value is Steph Curry’s absence. So the total, in particular, I think more so than the spread because he’s so influential for them at that end of the floor. They just look clunky without him and a little bit lost in a lot of those offensive sets and become a little bit one-dimensional. How much that matters against a team like the Orlando Magic, though? I don’t know. The Magic, one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA at the moment over the past month, even the past three months, actually. A top five team in that regard.

Josh C:

But when they come up against teams who defensively are sort of top 10 and do have the ability to stop you from playing in the fast break and force you into half court sets, they go the complete opposite. We see them really struggle to execute in those situations. So yeah, I have complete contrasting opinions if you will, on this game. Where, like I said, my numbers are telling me that the overs is a valuable play. I think I’m four points above market here on the full game number. But I personally think that the under probably makes a little bit more sense here, just given how the two teams are likely to match up, and what we’re likely to save from each offense.

Kate Constable:

Total setting at 215 over at BetUS. Chris, where do you have this number?

Chris Farley:

Well, I’ll put it this way. I woke up wanting to play on the Warriors. This is a spot where, obviously, they should win and they need a win. But then I saw the line movement and I saw the amount of money. There’s a ton of money on the Warrior in this game and the line is moving in the Magics’ direction. So I just don’t want to touch this game. I don’t want to touch the total, I don’t want to touch the side. Golden State has a game tomorrow back-to-back, they have to go to Miami. Which I’m already going to ask you now, Josh. Do we play on Miami tomorrow off that loss? So that’s what I’m thinking. I just don’t think that’s going to be a good spot for Golden State. They’re going to want to take advantage of tonight but the line movement’s very strange. So that initially when I woke up, I didn’t even know what the total is when that question was asked because I haven’t looked at it since. You have to do that sometimes in your day.

Kate Constable:

So another question we got was do you think the Magic can upset the Warriors with no Curry? This is just a complete stay away altogether for you. You don’t even want to think about that.

Chris Farley:

Well, the answer is always yes, right because of Josh’s point at the beginning, this is the NBA, these are pros. So the talent disparity is way less the way you see like in college basketball, for example. But I do think yes, the line movement is very strange. To Josh’s point too, the Warriors kind of need a new on court leader. They need a new on court steady hand. Klay Thompson is still fresh off of a month or two. So this is a Warriors team who’s trying to figure themselves out still. But that being said, the Magic are bad at home. They’ve been bad against good teams at home, so I wouldn’t count on it. Sprinkle, no three unit play on the Magic.

Josh C:

Yeah. The long and short of it is yes, they can probably win outright. No, I have no interest in getting involved with it in any way, shape or form.

Kate Constable:

How about a prop for the Knicks game? Any take on RJ Barrett under four and a half assists tonight?

Josh C:

I actually don’t mind that look with Julius Randle out. I think there’s probably going to be a little bit more impetus on him being a primary scorer now on that offense. They’re going to run more sense for him accordingly. At least that’s what makes sense in my head as to what they should do. So I don’t mind that look at all in Randle’s absence. Obviously, the flip side is he’s going to have more usage. Maybe he does create more opportunities for others. So pretty easy to make a point and narrative the other way there. But I think that’s a decent enough look. Unsurprisingly though, I think the best look is you go look at Atlanta’s side of the fence because Trae Young just seems to love playing in this arena. I honestly think, like I said, in this game prior when we touched on, it’s just screams Hawks for me. I’m pretty bullish on my position there and in order for them to do so and to win effectively, the Hawks offense needs to hum. For the Hawks offense to hum you need Trae Young to be efficient and effective. That is basically what I’m essentially banking on tonight, is the best version of both Trae young and the Hawks offense.

Josh C:

So I’ll look at [inaudible 00:31:47] points in this game, in particular, I think he goes and puts on a show there. If he can get his shot going early, it should be no problem at all. Like I said, I think one thing that really stands out to me is if they can get those whistles and he can get himself in particular to the free throw lines to help find that rhythm. That’s when both he and Atlanta should start to roll.

Chris Farley:

Talking me into it, Josh, I’m telling you.

Kate Constable:

That’s a great segue into our best bets for today. Josh has taken the Hawks first quarter, I’m playing the under in that game. Chris has two dogs he’s playing on tonight. Then I do just want to point out that so far, Josh, well, it’s in the past couple weeks is 12, 0, and one on this show. So Josh is on fire right now. If you head over to Twitter, nice little graphic that betus_nbaaccount. Put out there, highlight Josh and all his good work he’s done lately. So, Josh, you are kind of talking both Chris and I into maybe a Hawks play tonight. Based on not only what you’ve said on the show but your record these past couple weeks have been pretty solid. So keep that up.

Josh C:

I appreciate it, nice little run. Good to finally turn the corner on the show if you will. It was a slow start at some point, so we got the in the end. Hey, there’s still a few weeks to go as well, so hopefully, we can close it out in the same manner.

Kate Constable:

Yes. Maybe some time for you to catch up with Chris.

Chris Farley:

You got fans in the background, screaming your name and stuff. That’s unbelievable. Yeah, this guy.

Kate Constable:

The groupies follow Josh everywhere.

Chris Farley:

It’s a different level.

Kate Constable:

You can’t get away from the paparazzi, the fans, everything.

Josh C:

Are they fans now? I don’t know, that’s the real quick I should I think in the situation.

Chris Farley:

I also don’t know what’s going on with my lighting over here, viewers. I look like I’m Simba, Lion King in the sun.

Kate Constable:

You kind of looked like you were just dropped out of the sky or still falling from the sky of some sort.

Chris Farley:

Yeah. I need to sit somewhere else next time. All right.

Josh C:

It’s heavenly, I like it, Chris, don’t worry.

Chris Farley:

There it is. It looks like the choir of angels are around me, I don’t know.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Josh C:

Yeah.

Kate Constable:

Maybe that means things are on your side for tonight, hopefully.

Chris Farley:

Let’s hope.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, that’s all we have for you today. Be sure to hit that like, subscribe, alert button. So you always know when we go live, which is every day at 4:00 PM Eastern and we will see you back here tomorrow to recap tonight’s games. Obviously, look ahead to tomorrow slate, have a good night. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook.

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