Best NBA Picks and Predictions Today [Mar 25th]

Josh C.:

And, the Denver Nuggets just couldn’t get it done because the Phoenix Suns apparently just will never lose another game of NBA basketball this regular season, which is cool. You know? You got to learn your lesson the hard way. Apparently, there is no such thing as a bad spot for that team and obviously Chris Paul being back and being as efficient as he was to get things going immediately doesn’t help either. But, kudos to that team. They’ve got the number one seed wrapped up and now I’m interested to see whether they really do continue going or if they actually finally start looking ahead to the playoffs and resting some bodies.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. You got to believe that they’re going to rest people at some point. Right? I mean, you can’t be playing your starters this heavy of minutes going into the playoffs [inaudible 00:01:18] expect to make a deep run and not have tired legs. I mean, Alex, in that game yesterday, I took the under. That was stupid. The under hit like midway through the third quarter. But, you had the over. I know you did. Didn’t you?

Alex Christensen:

I did.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Alex Christensen:

I had the over and the Pelicans. Last night was about as easy as could be for me. My NBA free picks were done pretty much at the end of the third quarter. It was lovely. I mean, I’m sorry that I could’ve been on the show as Chris and I continue to crawl towards the end of our marathon.

Kate Constable:

The only other game we had on our slate yesterday was Wizards/Bucks and Chris took the minus eight and a half. That was an easy win for them. Not much sweat there.

Kate Constable:

What do you guys think about…? Going back to the Suns, the Devin Booker, all of the saga around him not being involved in the MVP conversation. Should he be there?

Alex Christensen:

No.

Kate Constable:

Do you want to elaborate?

Alex Christensen:

Not really. I mean, I don’t… Why are we talking about this? Like, is this Phoenix Suns media nonsense? Like, he’s not the best player on his team. He’s not one of the five best players in the entire league. So.

Kate Constable:

Very fair.

Alex Christensen:

What’s the case for him to be MVP? Does anyone know?

Josh C.:

I think it’s… I think, honestly, it just centers around the fact that the Suns are the best team in the league and so therefore, by default, they should have someone in the conversation, is my understanding. Again, I’m just kind of clutching at straws there. I assume that’s the reason why. I don’t think he should be in the conversation, either. I think he’s been fantastic this season, but so has every single other player on the Suns roster this year at some point.

Kate Constable:

Mm-hmm (affirmative)-

Josh C.:

So, yeah. He’s fantastic. The team is fantastic. He’s, for me, not even an afterthought in the MVP conversation, unfortunately for him. But, after what we said, he clearly played with a chip on his shoulder last night and took it pretty personally that he wasn’t. He was excellent in every facet of play yesterday. You know, not just the 49 points, but the effort you got from him on both ends of the floor was pretty notable. So, maybe that sparked something for him. And, you know, good for the Phoenix Suns if that’s the case.

Kate Constable:

Maybe if we see him have a performance like that consistently throughout the season and not just every now and then. Then, he gets into that conversation. Yeah.

Alex Christensen:

[crosstalk 00:03:40] 26, five and five.

Josh C.:

[crosstalk 00:03:42]

Alex Christensen:

Like…

Kate Constable:

It’s kind of [crosstalk 00:03:42] [inaudible 00:03:42].

Alex Christensen:

I know those are counting stats and stuff, but like, he’s kind of start there and the shooting is nice. You know, 37, almost 38% from the three point land, shooting seven a game. That’s all good and well, but, like, I don’t know. Explain to me why he is MVP before you ask me why he isn’t.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, let’s take a look at who is MVP on our leaderboard. Alex, it’s going to be you in the next few weeks. I can feel it. Alex is going to top Chris. Josh is going to be right on his heels there. I mean, you’re in the conversation, Alex. Right? That’s better than Devin Booker can say.

Alex Christensen:

Chris I think last night got just a touch further out ahead. It’s… You know, again, like I said, it’s… The two of us are like watching guys fall apart at the end of a marathon. It’s… It’s been pretty tough. I’m catching up, but not because necessarily I’m doing better.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, maybe you can gain an edge on him today, and we will start today by talking about the Jazz and the Hornets. First game on our slate. Jazz are a four point favorite in Atlanta. In Atlanta. In Charlotte tonight. Total here is 228 and a half. Jazz are coming off of two losses to the Brooklyn Nets and the Boston Celtics, and the Hornets just got upset by the New York Knicks because they were pretty heavy favorite in that game. Alex, I’ll let you start this one off as your dog is calling for you to start this off. What do you like in this game?

Alex Christensen:

It could just be a good sign for Chris and the dog here, honestly. It’s… The Charlotte Hornets… This is a really nice spot for them. The Utah Jazz… Without Bogdanovic, the floor really gets to be smaller for them. I considered a play on the Hornets, but it was closer to my number than not, so I’ll let Josh go here since he had the gumption and the guts enough to take the Hornets.

Josh C.:

Yeah. I am on the Hornets, unfortunately. I don’t necessarily love the position here. It’s just one of those cases where the number for me, too high. I think the market’s still inflating Utah too much and like Alex said, it’s a great spot for Charlotte, who definitely laid an egg, I think it’s fair to say, in that game against the Knicks, but had looked pretty decent before that and as if they had sort of figured things out again, especially offensively. And so, I’m willing to say that that one game was more of an outlier than anything else. The Knicks were shooting absolutely ridiculous from three point range throughout, so it was a difficult night for them.

Josh C.:

The Jazz… You take out Bogdanovic again and that’s a pretty key piece to this team, it seems. You know, there’s one less body that can stretch the floor. You know, he’s probably the most consistent scorer, especially from out on the wings anyway. So, I like what Charlotte get in terms of [inaudible 00:06:28] matchup when looking at these starting lineups. In particular, I think that there are the type of team that can make life difficult for Utah, just keeping the pace that they play at. You know, they drive, they kick, they make life, I guess, for Rudy Gobert a little bit tough in that it’s not just a traditional team that’s going to try and get the ball in down low and find routes to the basket that way.

Josh C.:

So, may… I’m not going to say he becomes a non-factor, but I think he’s less influential in a game like this. He certainly will have his way on the boards and especially on the offensive boards, and that’s a concern for sure. But, ultimately, this number is still a couple of numbers above where I have it. I think that the Hornets are still in the better spot here. I think Utah have been really trailing off on this East Coast road trip. They’ve still got more road games to come. They just head back west after this one. So, everything lines up for Charlotte.

Josh C.:

Like I said, I just… I can get to the number. I think it’s great value. I like what Charlotte should bring offensively in a game like this and if they do manage to get going, especially from deep, I think that they find rhythm again and they roll on their home court.

Kate Constable:

All right. I like it. Alex not necessarily liking this Hornets spot. But, Josh is going to play it just a little bit. Hornets at minus four.

Kate Constable:

Spot Alex does like, if I have this right… Yes. Is the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They’re at home facing the Warriors, who are without Stephen Curry. Hawks are a two and a half point favorite. Total is 221. Alex, tell me what you like in this one.

Alex Christensen:

You have to love this spot here for the Hawks. The Warriors have been just, frankly, awful without Steph Curry. It’s hard for them to generate offense. Klay Thompson is clearly not back to being himself. Draymond Green clearly is not back to being himself. Just overall, Steph Curry drives so much of what they do. It’s one of those situations where it’s becoming increasingly difficult and you’ve seen they’re one and three in their last four games here without Steph Curry. Some pretty rough losses in there. Yes, they got the best of a Miami team that… It was just kind of maybe a tough spot there for Miami. Maybe a look ahead kind of thing. I just… It was, again, a bad game for the Heat more than I think a good game for the Warriors.

Alex Christensen:

You look at the Hawks tonight. Yes, they lost to Detroit. It’s a last game of a road trip. I think part of that loss is looking ahead to tonight. The roster looks a little bit healthier here and just my numbers have the Hawks here as almost five point favorites without Curry. The Warriors are just such a different team. Night and day.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. I like the Hawks in this spot, too. Bounce back spot for them coming off that Pistons loss and kind of a letdown spot for the Warriors after that win against the Heat. I mean, the Warriors in that win… Jordan Poole had 30 points. Jonathan Kuminga, Damion Lee, Andrew Wiggins, all with 20. But, I think that changes once you bring Klay Thompson and Draymond Green back into the mix. So, I’m not sure they can repeat that two nights in a row and if those guys aren’t putting up those types of numbers tonight, I don’t see how they can beat this Hawks team.

Kate Constable:

Josh, you’re smiling and nodding as I’m saying all of this. Is that kind of your thought process?

Josh C.:

Yeah. I feel like I don’t really need to add anything to what the two of you have already said. The Warriors minus Steph Curry are just not a good team. They look completely lost out on the floor, especially offensively, and the production they got from Klay is in that win against Miami, I don’t think exists again in this spot when you bring back Draymond Green and Klay Thompson and those guys aren’t necessarily allowed to play with as much freedom and have to play with sort of within the system again.

Josh C.:

Everything for Atlanta, meanwhile, is just perfect. I mean, you know, they’re back home. They’ve been excellent in their first game back home as well once they’ve been out on the road. You look at their record all season in those spots. It’s been very, very reliable for a team that otherwise hasn’t been particularly reliable. So, I think that from the get-go there, they should take control of this game. Offensively, I think they should be able to do what they want. Defensively, they don’t necessarily have to be fantastic, which is always the best time to get on the Hawks, is when you don’t need to rely on them to do too much at that end of the floor.

Josh C.:

So, I think the Warriors’ offense is going to remain clunky and there’s no fluidity there and that issue, I think, will be magnified in the coming weeks. I think that game against Miami was just an outlier and then you just need to look at the game prior to that against Orlando and even the one against San Antonio and I think you see a truer reflection of what this Warriors team is probably going to put forth in Curry’s absence.

Josh C.:

So, I’m completely all over Atlanta here today. I love them first half. I love them full game. I think they, like I said, come out early. They take control. They play from in front and I don’t see the Warriors making a run at them here. My number also between three and a half and four for this game and I think that I’m still undervaluing Curry’s value to the spread in terms of what be brings to this team on the floor.

Kate Constable:

And, the Hawks are sitting in that 10th spot in the East, two games behind Brooklyn for that eighth seed. So, I mean, they still need to win basketball games if they want to avoid… I guess the Knicks are 11th and they’re five games back. So, Knicks probably aren’t going to catch them. But, it’d be nice if the Hawks could move up a couple games and get into that one and done playoff series, play-in series, I suppose. So, looking for the win tonight. Hawks minus two and a half for all three of us and then Josh is also playing Hawks first half minus one. Big game for Josh.

Kate Constable:

All right. A rematch of Monday’s matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Mavs won that game by two and that one was in Dallas. Tonight is in Minneapolis, where the Wolves are a three point favorite here. Total’s sitting at 228. Alex, you have a play in this game tonight. What is it?

Alex Christensen:

I like the Timberwolves here quite a bit. It was a tough spot for them the other night against the Mavericks. You know, they only shoot 39% as a team but you go back and you look at some of the other indicators. Shot way more free throws than the Mavericks, eight more free throws. Had eight more offensive rebounds than the Mavericks did. Turned the ball over three times less than the Mavericks did. So, you know, all those extra possessions. I mean, if they can get that shooting percentage up to even 43, 44%, you’re looking at a comfortable Mavericks win here.

Alex Christensen:

Now, Kate, you made a great point last time we were on. Karl-Anthony Towns continues to be questionable but plays anyway. We’ve seen this probably for about a week now. So, he’s questionable. I’m assuming he’s in and when they have everybody, this Minnesota team continues to get better and better. The Mavericks here are kind of a funky travel spot, one of those one night sleepover spots, if you will, where they hop to Dallas real quick and then come home for a game against Utah. I think maybe the game against Utah possibly a little more important to Dallas than this one.

Alex Christensen:

Either way, I like this Minnesota team and I think we’re getting some value given just kind of a bad variant shooting performance the other night.

Kate Constable:

Josh, I’m sorry I’m tossing all these to Alex first. I should mix you in the mix going first because Alex kind of just summed everything up. What can you add to validating Wolves minus three?

Josh C.:

No, it’s great, Kate, and I appreciate it. You know, it’s a little bit early on this side of the world, so the less talking I do and the more Alex is able to get our point across, the better, so. Look, I’m on the same side here as well. Much the same reasons. I don’t like the spot for Dallas where they have to go out on the road for a game and then come back home, and that game back home being against Utah. It obviously does matter a lot to them in that race for a fourth seed or a top four seed in the West. And, the Timberwolves… You know, they were frustrating in that loss against Phoenix. I… You know, you and I were both on them that night. Things just absolutely fell apart in that fourth quarter for them.

Josh C.:

But, ultimately, you know, aside from that one really bad quarter, they’ve been fantastic for the very vast majority since the All-Star break and you look at that game against Dallas and like Alex said, there’s a lot of reason I think for them to be confident coming into this one. I think the opportunity for them to sort of get right in such a short turnaround against this team should stand at the forefront of what we get and what we expect from Minnesota.

Josh C.:

So, another team as well where I think that you probably get them coming out really strong in the opening quarter, opening half in particular, and this time I think they are able to see it out ultimately down the stretch in the game. So, love the spot for Minnesota. I do like the matchup, especially if they’re able to push tempo here in the first half, which… Dallas being a super slow paced team, one thing you looked at and noticed in particular when you dive a little bit deeper is that pace sort of doesn’t come to the floor until the second half. That first half, they seem comfortable and happy almost, going up and down with teams, and you don’t really want to be caught in that situation against this Timberwolves side because if they are in rhythm and they do get going offensively early, it can spell a lot of trouble in there. That’s kind of what I’m hoping is the case here. If the Timberwolves are able to open up another double digit lead, this time they see it out.

Kate Constable:

Especially after playing on Monday and losing that one. A little bit of a revenge thought for the Wolves tonight as well. So, both Alex and Josh taking Minnesota Timberwolves minus three over the Mavericks tonight.

Kate Constable:

The Knicks and the Heat are in Miami tonight. Heat are a seven and a half point favorite. Total’s 215 and a half. The Heat were kind of the hot topic of discussion this week. Jimmy Butler, head coach Erik Spoelstra and Udonis Haslem got into it on the bench on Monday in that loss to the Sixers and it’ll be interesting to see how they come out tonight and play as a team. Alex, you’re playing the over 215 and a half in this one. You think the Heat can piece things back together and be just fine tonight?

Alex Christensen:

Yeah. I think whatever version of the Heat we get, whatever version of the Knicks we get tonight, are going to score more than 215 points here. It’s… You start to look at the matchup a little bit. Again, there’s a ton of questions on this injury report. We don’t know if Julius Randle is going to play. I kind of hope he doesn’t. The Knicks play at a much faster pace when he’s off the floor. It’s a much more interesting guard-driven game and at the same time, you look at the Miami Heat. Butler’s questionable. Herro’s questionable. Duncan Robinson is questionable. P.J. Tucker’s questionable. I think if I could at least get Herro or Duncan Robinson [inaudible 00:16:27] of a Miami offense tonight and enough of a Miami Heat team that’s going to be happy to run a little bit with these Knicks. I really struggle to get this less than a 218, 219 in some of my numbers here, so I’m happy to take over any number 216 or less.

Kate Constable:

I don’t disagree with you at all, Alex. My only thought would be if this Heat team kind of needs to get back on track after their little blowup. They go back to their identity, which is tough defense. So, do we see a Heat team that kind of shuts the Knicks down tonight, by chance? Josh, any thoughts?

Alex Christensen:

[crosstalk 00:17:01] score a ton themselves.

Kate Constable:

That’s true. They could easily do that. Yeah. If you get Herro or Robinson in there getting hot from three.

Alex Christensen:

Maybe it’s a blowout.

Kate Constable:

Ooh. There we go. Blowout always takes the overs. Josh, add your two cents into this. What do you think?

Josh C.:

I think that if Julius Randle is out, that’s the absolute only way you can play this game, period, whether you’re looking at line or total, just because they are a completely different unit in his absence. You know, we touched about… We touched on them a couple days ago where you take him out and the offense is… It’s not any faster. It’s more efficient. It’s more free-flowing. It’s obviously a lot more perimeter driven as well. They have no hesitation in creating and taking shots from three, as we saw in that game against Charlotte in particular. You know, you don’t get a Julius Randle situation where you feed him the ball, he pounds the rock for about 10 to 15 seconds, he takes a tough midrange contested jump shot which probably misses and they have to trudge down the other end of the floor.

Josh C.:

So, ultimately, for their offense, it’s absolutely better if Randle doesn’t play at all and for the pace of the game as well. And, if… You know, if… Again, if he’s out and that’s the style that New York will play, I think Miami probably just looks to match that just because they’ll be able to score and get to their spots as well offensively. I don’t think they’re necessarily going to try and wrestle that away.

Josh C.:

So, for me, a lot just hinges on Randle’s availability in this game in terms of whether I would want to play an over here. I think if I had to take the line, I’m probably going to side with Miami just because I do think they get right. But again, it’s just entirely dependent on how many of those questionable bodies end up playing. So, such is the NBA come this time of season. You [inaudible 00:18:43] just have to sit and wait sometimes and then get all the information in front of you before you want to get involved in too many bets.

Kate Constable:

Julius Randle’s been out for the last couple games. What is out with?

Alex Christensen:

Quad. Sore quad.

Kate Constable:

Quad.

Alex Christensen:

Something going on with his quad, and that could be really tough. If anybody’s ever hurt their quadricep, it’s kind of a funky muscle since you have to use that all day.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. Yeah. That’s not something you necessarily want to rush back from. So, hopefully it’s a good sign for you, Alex. He stays out tonight. And, you’re taking the total over 215 and a half.

Kate Constable:

The last game on our schedule and then we’ll hit some questions, is the Philadelphia 76ers against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight in L.A. Sixers are a five point favorite on the road. Total’s 218. Clippers have been on a little slide recently. They’ve lost their last four. Sixers just beat the Lakers by a very small margin on Wednesday and they remained in L.A. for tonight’s game. I think there’s some value tonight here on the Clippers at plus five. I’m going to take them with the points back home after two straight losses and they’re pretty secure in that eighth spot in the West right now, but they still need some wins to avoid falling to that ninth spot.

Kate Constable:

And, Ty Lue’s been a great coach all season long. He gets his players ready for these types of games. Clippers also have a pretty scrappy defense that’s been solid and can be effective in kind of clogging that lane, getting into passing lanes, too, making things a little bit more difficult for Joel Embiid and especially James Harden just to get to the basket at will basically.

Kate Constable:

Clippers are also allowing just 60% shooting from the restricted area. Second best mark since the All-Star break. And, the most important thing of all is that L.A. nightlife just is calling James Harden’s name. Right? I mean, you’ve got to imagine that Harden’s been out in L.A. these past couple nights, doing whatever he is doing. So, maybe some unders on Harden tonight, but I’m going to take the points with the Clippers. Josh, what do you think?

Josh C.:

I think you have nailed the handicap to perfection. It’s basically the James Harden part. Let’s be completely realistic here. There is no chance he was staying two nights in L.A. and not making the most of that situation for himself. But, yeah. I do lean towards the Clippers here at five and a half. I was extremely tempted. I was actually hoping to wake up to a six, in which case I could take it, no questions asked there. It has come in a little bit, which isn’t particularly surprising, I guess.

Josh C.:

You know, they are in a bit of a skid here, the Clippers, and not a team that anyone really wants to be getting involved with. They’re one of the hardest teams for me to handicap just because you look at their games and they can be so volatile within that 48 minute frame where their offense is just so dependent and reliant on that three point shot, where they have halves of basketball where they quite literally shoot 16% on 20 plus shots from deep and then come out the next half and shoot 60% from 25 plus threes.

Josh C.:

And, you know, that’s the sort of team that they are offensively at the moment when you don’t have superstars. You know, Paul George, Kwahi Leonard, that can get you baskets in the midrange. They can, I guess, run a more efficient offense, if you will. So, it does make it hard to get involved with them because you just don’t know what you’re going to get from them in terms of variance on a nightly basis. But, I do think that’s probably the only way I would play this game as well, is to side with the Clippers here.

Josh C.:

Ultimately, I think Philadelphia get it done down the stretch and pull it away, but the Clippers should do enough to fall inside that number, keep it a sort of one to two possession game.

Kate Constable:

Alex, I’m going against your Sixers tonight. You want to go against me? Take the Sixers? No.

Alex Christensen:

No. Absolutely not. This is a great spot. The only reason I haven’t bet it is because I don’t think the line is going to really move much more towards the Clippers and there’s a greater than 0% chance Joel Embiid or James Harden maybe takes a night off here. You look at the schedule spot. They’ve got the win against the Lakers. They don’t need either, let alone both of those guys to win this game tonight against what’s left of this Clippers team and they got just a touch of a look ahead spot towards their final road trip. I’m sorry. The final game of their road trip there in Phoenix.

Alex Christensen:

Now, I don’t know anything, but I think the Clippers are absolutely the right spot and I’m just going to wait and see. If either of those guys look like they might be out, sure. Sounds good. I’ll grab myself some Clippers.

Kate Constable:

Perfect. Love it. All right. I’m taking the Clippers at plus five. Maybe they get up to five and a half, six, later this afternoon. We’ll see.

Kate Constable:

Questions for today. Team totals or player props for tonight? Alex is our team total guy. Josh is our player prop. This is a great question. Who wants to start? Alex.

Alex Christensen:

Just looking at some stuff. Maybe a Hornets team total over. Again, that was a bet that I was close to making I didn’t make. Timberwolves team total over looks pretty good. I actually like that spot for Minnesota. Once they confirm Karl-Anthony Towns, go ahead and take a swing at that. What else is there? Maybe a Sixers team total under or something. I don’t know. Those are all the ones that stuck out as almost bets.

Kate Constable:

All right. Josh, player props. I know that’s what you did the first thing you woke up… First thing you did when you woke up this morning, is check out player props.

Josh C.:

Absolutely. And, I have landed on an absolute gem, I think, here just based on my quick two seconds of research. The Utah Jazz obviously are… I’m riding with the Hornets here, but there is no bigger mismatch on the board than Rudy Gobert versus the opposing center in this game. He’s going to absolutely have his way. I would take whatever number you can get on his rebounding props. He’s probably going to go close to a 20 20 game, I imagine. He’ll be that dominant inside. So, whether it’s points and rebounds or just his rebounds, I think both get home pretty comfortably in this spot.

Josh C.:

You know, Mason Plumlee’s not going to do a whole lot, I don’t think, to keep Gobert at bay off the offensive glass and certainly not enough to challenge him on the defensive side of the floor for the Jazz. So, Rudy Gobert props I think are the absolute best of the day.

Kate Constable:

And, for those of you who may be new to the show today, Josh hits his props at 100% all the time regardless of if they win.

Alex Christensen:

[inaudible 00:24:47]

Kate Constable:

So, Josh is… Yeah.

Josh C.:

Yep. Yeah.

Kate Constable:

That’s… Follow Josh with those props. He leads us all in the right direction there.

Kate Constable:

All right. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today, what we are actually playing. All of us, all three of us, are on the Hawks tonight at minus two and a half. Josh is playing the Hornets too and the Timberwolves along with Alex also playing the Wolves and I am going to take the points with the Clippers tonight, hoping James Harden had a fun evening out in L.A. last night.

Kate Constable:

Would you guys go out with Harden in L.A.? [inaudible 00:25:20]

Alex Christensen:

100%.

Josh C.:

Yeah. No questions asked. I have no respect for the guy on the court but his off-court lifestyle is certainly something I would like to experience, if you will.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. I mean, yes. I would join him as well. That would be quite the experience. Fortunately, none of us are in L.A. tonight, so we’ll have to pass. But, thank you for the invite, James Harden. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook.

Kate Constable:

All right. That’s all we got for you today. Go enjoy your weekend. We will see you all back here on Monday at BetUS.