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Expert NBA Picks and Predictions

Kate C:

What’s up everyone? Thank you for joining us here today on the BetUS NBA show. Josh C., Chris Farley, Kate Constable always here with you every Tuesday. Yesterday gentlemen, a great day for the show. Unfortunately, the Kings had to blow a massive lead to the Knicks and so I lost that one. So instead of going 100%, a perfect, what was it? Six for six. We went five for one yesterday. And Josh, you weren’t on the show, but I know you were also on the Kings yesterday and watched that epic meltdown should we call it.

Josh C:

Yeah, that’s a really polite way of saying what I was going to say. Probably more appropriate for the show. We said it off air. I mean at the same time, it’s the Kings and none of it should surprise us and some people might even say that we got what we deserve for betting on Sacramento. But that was an incredible meltdown. To be up 20 and then lose by 20 or be down by even more than 20, it’s just, I think epitomizes the issues that that franchise at the moment that go beyond just the playing personnel in itself.

Josh C:

There’s obviously management issues, there’s clearly coaching issues, and when you sort of put it all together, this is kind of what you get. And the franchise is just in absolute disarray where they’re not really going through a rebuild so you can’t even sort of point to that, but they’re not making any progress in terms of pushing towards playoff potential either. So just an absolute limbo and I don’t know what the answer is.

Josh C:

Do you tear it all down properly and actually rebuild it again or do you try and be a little bit more aggressive in getting support around what’s now your top two plays in Sabonis and Fox? I don’t know what the right answer is, but I know one thing that’s for certain is that you cannot keep things the way they are because these things are just becoming too frequent for Sacramento at the moment and part of it is obviously Alvin Gentry as well. He’s clearly not the man for the job.

Josh C:

But yeah, all in all, it’s been a great run of games, I think, collectively for all of us since the All-Star break, but last night was just one of those friendly reminders that you are betting on the NBA betting odds and these things can happen.

Kate C:

Yep. And Julius Randle can go off and somehow drop 46 points. All of a sudden his offense completely comes back to him. Yeah.

Chris F:

Yeah.

Kate C:

Those things happen all the time. Chris, you and Alex were both on Sixers team total over 120, and you had to sweat that one out because they finished at 121 yesterday.

Chris F:

Good old… Good old Tyrese Maxey with that final three point shot. It was… He knew what we wanted there.

Kate C:

Yeah.

Chris F:

He said the line moved up way too much so I’m going to… I’m going to give something back to betters. Yeah. That was a close one. I’m also… Yeah, it’s one of those things you’re… I’m happy for Alex, kind of not happy for Alex so I can pull ahead of it more. But I am happy for Alex that the Timberwolves team total hit as well.

Chris F:

That was kind of another sweat at the end, right? Because there was just such a distance between the Timberwolves and the Blazers there. That was one of those weird games too. Why didn’t we all bet on the Timberwolves but then you could say the same thing about the Nuggets. Look how close the Warriors kept that game against the Nuggets right down to the end. Nuggets almost blew another one at home in a great spot.

Chris F:

So that’s the NBA, right? The NBA is just going to be crazy sometimes. Yeah, as far as the Kings go, I was kind of expecting some of their regression. They were playing over their heads but that… Definitely one of those teams for me.

Chris F:

The Kings are officially in that bucket for me on just teams that I can’t figure out right now because they look like… They looked really proficient, even on defense for the past few games and then not so much last night, especially in the second half. So I had a small personal play on the Knicks so a small celebration for me, but I don’t… I don’t like to celebrate what it means an L… If it means an L for the team. It was a very small play. All in all, hey, 4 and 1 day for us. So not bad. 5 and 1?

Kate C:

Five in on day. Yeah. Pretty good day. And after hearing you on the show yesterday, talking about your Timberwolves pick, I had made a play on the Timberwolves because of you, Chris. So my losses from the Kings were semi-made back from the Timberwolves because listening to you kind of explain what was going on in that game… I was just a little scared to lay all the points, but shouldn’t have been scared. That was a very easy play and a very easy win for the Timberwolves.

Chris F:

Yeah, they covered the first quarter. [crosstalk 00:04:31] in the first quarter, which is not something you see every day. So that wasn’t a sweat for even a second.

Kate C:

No, not all. Some big news coming out today but it’s not about the NBA at all. Some football news, Russell Wilson, no longer with the Seattle Seahawks. He’s over with the Denver Broncos, and then Aaron Rogers signing a big four year deal to stay in Green Bay. Chris, just quick, because I know you are all up in the football world, what did you think of the move with Russell Wilson?

Chris F:

I appreciate you giving me the opportunity to talk NFL. Yeah, I like it. I really do. It’s a fresh start for Russell Wilson. Obviously, he’s not in his heyday anymore, but he’s still a very, very good quarterback. And you’re…

Chris F:

The one thing about it is you’re sending him to a division that has Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, that division’s only getting harder. But at the same time, Denver’s kind of loaded. They gave away Noah Fant but they still have Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy. They got some guys they need to… They need to improve that offensive line because Russell Wilson really has not had an offensive line for like a decade. But if they can do that in Denver, they don’t really have a lot of missing pieces. So I think it could be a scary move there for the rest of the AFC West

Kate C:

And in the AFC West, the Broncos are second to win that division over at BetUS, plus 225. They’re behind the Chiefs who are even money. So if you think the Broncos might be able to pass the Chiefs this year, head over to BetUS and get a little future bet in there.

Kate C:

Call set over to BetUS and bet on all the games that we’re going to talk about today. Six on the slate today. We’re only going to touch on a few, but head over there and get some good lines as we talk through these.

Kate C:

All right. Starting things off with our overall record today. Chris, it would’ve been nice if Alex had a loss for you yesterday to kind of distance yourself a little bit there, but overall a really good day for all of us. So 133, 313, 273 overall record for all of us, and we will add to that today.

Kate C:

Starting things off talking about the Suns and the Magic. Phoenix Suns in New Orleans… Suns are coming off a loss to the Bucks on Sunday, and they’re still without Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cam Johnson. Magic, worst team in the Eastern conference, but they’ve won three of their last five. So Josh, who do you like in this one tonight?

Josh C:

Of course, I like the Orlando Magic. Why wouldn’t I like the Orlando Magic? It’s just what I do. I find these teams and spots to play them and this is kind of the spot for Orlando against a Suns team who, like you said, depleted. When you look at the players out, heavily depleted in the fact that it’s so top heavy with the absentees on that roster at the moment.

Josh C:

But also just a really schedule spot. They fought really hard in Milwaukee a couple of nights ago, fell short. Ultimately, that score line, I don’t think is really reflective of that game. It kind of just got out of hand in the last 90 seconds or so. But now, this just sets up as a bit of a flat spot. The front end of a back to back, they’ve got Miami tomorrow and then they heard home after that. It’s hard for teams to get up for games like this.

Josh C:

Magic are a team who… Obviously, the record speaks for themselves, but they are sort of trending upwards a little bit in the same way that Detroit is, where I think you’re starting to see that team fully healthy come together and sort of form a little bit of an identity about themselves, which is always good to see for these young sides in particular in the NBA.

Josh C:

So you look at the metrics for both these sides over the sort of the past two to three weeks in particular and everything sort of screams Orlando, which is a little bit surprising and their defense, I think should be able to match up with what’s left of this Phoenix offense. And it becomes a little bit more one dimensional now and little bit more predictable, which just makes it easier for the Magic to try and contain.

Josh C:

The flip side Orlando’s offense… I actually think should have some success against what’s still a pretty good Phoenix defense. Let’s not take away from that, but you look at some of the match up profiles, especially inside. I think they could have a lot of success. The Suns over the last two and a half weeks, they are dead last in rebounding percentage in the NBA.

Josh C:

That is dead last in offensive rebounding percentage and dead last in defensive rebounding percentage, which is alarming and hugely concerning and not what you want against this Magic team right now who are crashing the boards pretty efficiently. Doing a great job of securing defensive rebounds as well and limiting opponents that can chance points. So more of that today and I think they absolutely fall in the number and they’re certainly live to win this game outright.

Josh C:

So I kind of have this number just under six as being fair price. Managed to grab a seven and a half at opener, but even at six and a half, I still think that there’s value to be had here on the Magic. Like I said, it’s pretty much a premium spot for them, a really flat spot for Phoenix and given the injuries, I think for the Suns at the moment, they’re probably going to be happy just scraping out a win if possible here.

Josh C:

So let’s ride this Orlando Magic train once again on the show, which has actually been quite favorable for me. So long may it continue, I say.

Kate C:

It is interesting to hear you talk about the Suns being a bad rebounding team within the last two weeks because they have Deandre Ayton down low. Wants a max contract, thinks he’s a max player, yet isn’t grabbing rebounds on either side of the floor. He played really well against the Bucks on Sunday, but the game before that against the Knicks kind of laid an egg.

Kate C:

So Deandre Ayton really needs to step up tonight, especially with CP3 and Devin Booker both out. Suns also play in Miami tomorrow so maybe a little bit of a look ahead spot for the Suns because that’ll be a big game for them. And Chris, what do you think about the total in this one? Because without Chris Paul running the point Cam Payne is now the point guard for the Suns and he plays at a little bit faster pace than Chris Paul. So do you think this one could go over 221?

Chris F:

Yeah. I have a play on the over, a small play and I got that at 223 and then the line started moving down a little bit and I didn’t quite understand that. Obviously, the Magic going at a pretty fast pace and to your point about Cameron Payne, he’s not afraid to go at a fast pace either. It just depends if the Suns want to try to slow down this game and play more Deandre Ayton basketball, but that… I don’t know. That didn’t really affect him against the Bucks. That was a high scoring game too.

Chris F:

To your point about Deandre Ayton, yeah, he… If I remember correctly, he had a pretty darn good game against the Bucks-

Kate C:

Yeah.

Chris F:

So maybe this is a let down spot for him too because he’s just inconsistent. He looks like he’s really maturing and developing and then he’ll just totally blow it on defense. He won’t be working for those rebounds at all. So which version of Deandre Ayton are we going to get tonight? I’m not sure.

Chris F:

I could see both sides of this bet too. So lean to the over, but it… Definitely, a let down, sleepy spot for the Suns. Suns also could be looking at it though as an opportunity to get a win or a chance to get a win before their schedule gets a little harder without their stars. One thing about the Magic is they’ve had some success recently, but some of the defenses they faced… Blazers, rockets, Pacers, these are some of the worst defenses in the NBA.

Chris F:

One of the marks of a truly good coach for me is when you just see every player on the court kind of looks the same because they all have the same discipline. They all have the same amount of effort. And Monty Williams coached players are typically hardworking, present. They’re not going to give up a lot… Deandre Ayton when he does that from time to time but I…

Chris F:

Josh, you have more courage than me with this one. I like that you’re playing on the Magic here because they do show some bias signs. Suns are just still a very good team even without their stars and it’s going to be interesting to see the battle between Deandre Ayton and Wendell Carter Jr. who’s been stepping up his game recently.

Chris F:

He’s a pretty important piece for the Magic that I don’t think that they felt they had before, and now they’re just kind of putting him in a more prominent role and it’s working out for them. So there are some bias signs in the Orlando Magic, believe it or not, and the line has moved in their direction. So, that says that Josh is on the right side here. We’ll see.

Kate C:

Then I think you are Josh, taking the Magic plus six and a half against the Suns tonight.

Kate C:

Next up, we have the Pelicans and the Grizzlies. Pelicans are in Memphis and the Grizzlies are six and a half point favorite. Total here is 230 and a half. This is kind of a bounce back game for both of these teams. The Pelicans are coming off of an overtime loss to the Nuggets after blowing a fourth quarter lead, a game they shouldn’t have lost, and the Grizzlies, they lost outright to the Rockets. Also, a game they shouldn’t have lost, but the Rockets kind of jumped on them and game and had them from the start.

Kate C:

Josh, once again, going to start with you here. You were thinking about having a play on the Pelicans, but now Brandon Ingram is questionable and so that turned you off of this game for now.

Josh C:

Yeah. That’s thrown an absolute span in the work, so to say. I definitely would’ve been on the Pelicans and still might be if he plays, assuming the line doesn’t obviously move too much.

Josh C:

Even at the opener of five and a half with Ingram in, that’s good enough for me to buy on the Pelicans here. Anything better than that and Ingram in obviously is just going to be an automatic play for me. I don’t think we’ll get that. I think the lines will move pretty quickly, but if you can keep on top of that, then that’s something to keep an eye on.

Josh C:

I’ve been riding this Pelicans hot streak basically since it started really. Unfortunately, it meant I was also on them against Denver, had them plus three and a half in that game and Kate, I can assure you that was far more painful than Sacramento was yesterday.

Kate C:

Yes, it was.

Josh C:

Yeah, a couple back to back [crosstalk 00:14:12]. Yeah, a couple back to back rough ones for sure, but I like the spot here to bounce back for New Orleans, even though they are up against it, if you will, and coming off of altitude and all those things. They’re certainly factored in and baked into the line anyway. So don’t think that there’s an edge, I guess, playing against that particular narrative in itself.

Josh C:

You look at the matchup specifically and dive into things a little bit deeper and the Pelicans should have a little bit of success offensively, the way that they run things at the moment, their ability to get into the paint. They live in the mid range, they get to the rim, two things that you can do successfully against Memphis at the moment, which is strange because it seems like it wasn’t too long ago that Memphis were doing a great job at stopping that but it seems like maybe they were just doing a really good job of stopping poor teams from doing that whereas you look at teams with similar statistical profiles to the Pelicans and they’ve had a lot of success in the paint.

Josh C:

Boston obviously, one of those teams. Both games against Dallas. I know that was sort of in January, a little while back, but again, another team who lives in the paint with Luca in particular and can get to the rim really efficiently, they won both those games by margin as well. So small sample sizes, yes, but at the same time, they’re sort of the only things to go off when you look at recent schedule for the Grizzlies, having also beat up on some pretty poor teams themselves lately.

Josh C:

The flip side is these teams did meet a fortnight ago and Memphis did win by 12 but when you sort of dive in and break down that game, there was sort of a lot of anomalies there that I don’t think will come to the fray again. The Pelican shot 16% from deep and still only lost by 11 or 12 points. So things like that should have some sort of positive regression there.

Josh C:

The Grizzlies won the offensive rebounding battle by I think, six or eight in that game off the top of my head. Not crazy, considering how well the Grizzlies crash the offensive glass, but the Pelicans are third over the last sort of month and a half of basketball in offensive rebounding themselves, and they’re actually top 10 in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. So they do a better job of keeping teams off the glass than what the Grizzlies do who are bottom 10 in that category.

Josh C:

So another instance, I think, where you could see some regression from the Grizzlies, things sort of even out in that regard. And if you do that, that game probably finishes basically dead even and it becomes a coin flip down the stretch. And aside from the first quarter where the Grizzlies won by 10, that’s exactly what every quarter was after that, and that’s pretty much how I expect this game to go where it’s largely going to be one or two possessions each quarter. Could be a coin flip, ultimately, down the stretch and if that’s the case, then obviously you want the points in your pocket.

Josh C:

So purely comes down to what happens with Brandon Ingram here. If he’s in, I’m probably playing the Pelicans. If he’s not in, it doesn’t matter what the number gets to, I have no interest in playing them whatsoever. So just sit and wait to see what the market does here. Ultimately, as soon as you see him in, grab the best possible number you can. Five and a half would probably be the lowest I go. Anything better than that, and I think you’re doing a great job.

Kate C:

Chris, if Brandon Ingram does play, do you have any play or lean on this game?

Chris F:

I took a small personal play on the Pelicans plus six and a half hoping that Brandon Ingram does play because I think there’s a lot of value in that. I have the game around four and a half, five, so, close to market initially but now, it’s getting a little too high, of course, if he does play.

Chris F:

Maybe an interesting angle too, is CJ McCollum, PAR props, points, assist, rebounds. He’s going to have to play additional play making role if Brandon Ingram is out of this game. But Josh said it all very eloquently. This is a really tough game to handicap because you have a team in the Pelicans who is more confident than usual. That’s for sure and they’ve proven it. But then you have the Memphis Grizzlies coming off that bad loss against the Rockets. That was a really tough spot for them so definitely an anomaly.

Chris F:

But usually, the Memphis Grizzlies, they respond after a game like that and they get right, especially at home, but this is going to have a battling field to it, I think. I love the battle between Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas down low. Just two scrappy, blue collar guys down there.

Chris F:

Both teams do a lot of the same things well that Josh noted. Points in the paint, they attack the paint. Usually, they’re pretty good on defense in the paint, but to Josh’s point too, the Celtics kind of exposed that. And if you have length and if you have talent there on the front court, then you can get there on the Grizzlies, which… That’s certainly something that the Pelicans have, especially if Brandon Ingram is in this one.

Chris F:

So there’s a lot to like about both of these teams. I personally love both of these teams. I’m personally still hurting about the fact that I didn’t choose the Pelicans against the Jazz last week. So I don’t want to make that mistake again, but this is just an exciting game to watch. Hopefully, I can… Is this on TV? I’m not sure if it is. Probably not because the right games don’t get on TV now.

Kate C:

Yeah. It’s on TNT.

Chris F:

It’s on TNT? Good. Because usually that’s a Lakers spot-

Kate C:

The early game on TNT.

Chris F:

… for some reason. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I’m pretty sick of watching the Lakers on TNT. Let’s get some other teams on there. But all this to say no play for me personally, but I lean on Josh’s side and no play at the total. I think it’s pretty… I think it’s pretty spot on.

Kate C:

A little bit of motivation for both of these teams tonight. Obviously, you want to win the game, but Grizzlies needing to kind of get a bounce back. They’ve lost a couple in their last five or so and New Orleans, they’re sitting in the 10th spot. They’re a game behind the Lakers and two games in front of Portland who’s coming up on them in that 10th spot.

Kate C:

Now, I don’t really see Portland jumping the Pelicans. I think the Pelicans are pretty safe in there, but to move up to that nine spot and play the eight seed in the play in, that would be… I’d prefer to play the Clippers than the Timberwolves right now. So Pelicans kind of needing a couple wins to move up a little and hoping the Lakers continue their slide.

Kate C:

Another team that needs some more wins is the Brooklyn Nets because they have been struggling lately. They’ve lost their last four, lost 17 of their last 20 games but they’re a four point favorite here in Charlotte tonight. Total here is a whopping 240. Chris, what are you looking at in this game?

Chris F:

Yeah. One of the things that we have to do as sports betters, I think is kind of grow in our analysis of these teams and if you’ve heard me on the show before, you know I’m not a big fan of the Brooklyn Nets just as an NBA viewer and fan, just because of all the nonsense that has gone on there recently, but you really can’t deny…

Chris F:

When I was watching them against the Celtics, they could have easily won that game. Their defense really let them down at the end there, [inaudible 00:20:56] the Celtics did not. So kudos once again to the Celtics defense and to Jason Tatum, how he just keeps on stepping up. But the attitude and the poise of Kevin Durant in these game is impressive.

Chris F:

He’s virtually unstoppable out there and a team like the Celtics, you would think would give him the most trouble because of their length but Durant really had no issue. Outshined by Jason Tatum scoring what, 53 points in that one but Kevin Duran was automatic in that game.

Chris F:

Kyrie Irving, game to game hasn’t been as consistent this year, but he’s still one of the best players in the world and now, this Nets team is going up against the Charlotte Hornets team that we’ve seen… They show some better defense there January a little bit, February a little bit, but now they’re kind of getting back to Charlotte Hornet’s basketball, which is let’s run fast and try to outscore your opponent and I don’t think that’s a good thing going up against the Brooklyn Nets.

Chris F:

I was surprised to see the line movement. Initially, it was moving up on the Nets, then it moved back down. Maybe some sharps came in on Charlotte at home. Both of these teams want to win right now with the position that they’re in, the 8th and 9th seeds, but you’re giving me less than two possessions. Well, two possessions, but less than three possessions on the Brooklyn Nets against the Charlotte Hornets team with Kyrie and Kevin Durant in this game. I think the biggest difference in this game is going to be the Charlotte Hornets do not have the length at all to stop someone like Kevin Durant, even Claxton, even Andre Drummond down low, Aldrige down low.

Chris F:

The Nets are just going to have more length in these opportunities, more size, more offensive talent. Mason Plumlee can be all right every now… Bridges is a pretty good defender, but I don’t think they’re going to be able to make a lot of stops on the Nets. I like the Nets team total. I like the Nets side. The only thing that scared me away from this a little bit initially, was the line movement. But when we break this down simply, this is a Nets team that knows they have to win and they have to keep on winning and it has to happen right now.

Chris F:

So if there’s a team to bet on, which team do you trust, the Nets or the Hornets… And for what it’s worth too, the Nets, they showed really good defense at the start of the year too. November and December, top 10 defense in the NBA. That’s fallen off a little bit without their stars, but I expect them to get right in that area too. I can only look at the Nets in this one. I would be terrified to take their Hornets. So sometimes that’s something that informs me about these bets. Can I take the other side? Absolutely not. So I’m on the Nets tonight.

Kate C:

I cannot take the Hornets in this one either. I’m on the Nets as well. Just feels like there’s a sense of urgency in this game for Brooklyn. They need to start winning. They need to start stringing together a number of really good performances and coming off of the one against Boston, even though they lost, that was a very good performance.

Kate C:

So hopefully they can continue that momentum moving into this game and then their last six games, those have all come against quality defensive teams. They played Boston, Milwaukee, Toronto back-to-back, Miami and Boston again. So coming into Charlotte tonight and playing this Hornets team who’s not great defensively and who just wants to get up and down and run, I think the Nets are going to have no problem, not only sticking with them, but surpassing whatever Charlotte can do in terms of getting up and down the floor.

Kate C:

Kyrie Irving coming off of a okay game. Had 19 in that loss to Brooklyn. So I see him having a little bit better game tonight, kind of getting back into what it’s like playing with Kevin Durant, now that he’s back into this one. So I like the Nets in this one. I got them early at minus two, but I’m also a little confused by this line movement and I was a little confused that it opened where it did at Brooklyn minus one and a half.

Kate C:

That seemed way too small of a line for this Brooklyn team going up against the Hornets, who… They haven’t looked like themselves since Gordon Hayward went out one, and tomorrow they play the Celtics so maybe a little bit of a look ahead spot there. So I am also going to take the Nets minus four. Josh, any thoughts on this game for you?

Josh C:

Nothing, I don’t think that you guys haven’t already covered. The number itself is pretty, pretty accurate. I think in terms of… If you’re playing purely numbers when you’re betting, you have to play Charlotte in this spot, because it’s going to tell you to play Charlotte. The fair price would probably be closer to two, but when you start adding in all those other factors, like you said, and the fact that this Nets team is obviously a completely different proposition with a healthy Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on the court at the same time, all of a sudden it’s whoa.

Josh C:

Where should this number really sit? I don’t know what the answer to that is, but I know that this is a game where Brooklyn could win by 20, and I don’t think many people would an eyelid at all and probably say it was expected, and all of a sudden net’s minus four looks like the easiest bet on the board. But again, at the same time, you do need to, I guess, have some sort of context to it and that’s where the number ends up where it is. And there is, I think fair argument to be said that you play Charlotte at this number at home in this spot. But I for one just will not be saying that. I was just pointing out that some people might. I think that it’s absolutely Brooklyn or pass here.

Josh C:

Yeah. It’s really difficult for Charlotte at the moment. Like Chris said, it’s kind of one or the other. They’re either sure things up defensively and unfortunately, it impacts their ability to score offensively or they go back to playing run and gun, putting up ridiculous numbers and scoring pretty fluently but at the same time, it hurts their defense. They can’t seem to find that balance, which makes sense as well when you sort of look at that roster and I guess the weaknesses that it has.

Josh C:

Kevin Durant should absolutely feast. He feast most night, but there is just no one on the Charlotte Hornets team that can stop him and Drummond should have his way inside as well, crashing those boards and putting plenty of opportunities inside. So literally, everything screams Brooklyn. I just haven’t done it yet because I just… I think the numbers a little bit rich when I still need to sort of, I guess, abide to that to some extent.

Josh C:

But yeah… Brooklyn team total, Brooklyn on the line, agree with… Everything all you guys said. Anyone that saw a Brooklyn minus one and a half though, that was obviously completely wrong, and I hope you guys snapped that up. I feel like someone put that out there probably forgetting that this is a road game in Kyrie Irving can actually play.

Chris F:

Yeah. If you want to change some of your processes as a sports better, something that I have to start doing is stop going to bet so early, because even though that’s a good practice, I’m missing some of these early lines. I get up and Kate tells me she got minus one and a half. I would kill for that line.

Josh C:

Yeah. I never saw one and a half on this side of the world. So I had a few people drop that into one of the chats I’m in and I was extremely envious because yeah… Like I said, that number is dead wrong.

Kate C:

Well, I saw it. I saw minus one and a half and I thought to myself, something is going on that I don’t know about. So this is a bit scary and then I saw two and I was like, I’m taking it at two. I have to just grab this right where it is. But that’s a perk being on the west coast guys. You get better lines.

Chris F:

For real. That’s true. You’re still up. Yeah.

Kate C:

Yeah. Not for very long, but yeah, still up. All right. Well, Chris and I both playing Brooklyn in this one going up against the Hornets tonight in Charlotte. Questions. How about thoughts on the Clippers and Warriors tonight over at BetUS. The Warriors are five and a half point favorite. Total is sitting that’s 222 and a half, but the Warriors played last night in Denver, and they have been struggling a lot lately.

Josh C:

They have been, but they’re fully healthy now. So they rested everyone in Denver, literally for this exact spot.

Chris F:

Literally.

Josh C:

Yeah, you get basically the best of the Warriors, I guess. The best of the current Warriors anyway, without dream on green still. So you look at the other side of things and the Clippers are somehow even more depleted now. I’m pretty sure Robert Covington is now out, on top of the fact that there’s still Norman Powell, there’s no Paul George, there’s no Kawhi Leonard. They literally have no wings whatsoever. The team is extremely thin, shorthanded, but Ty Lue just keeps getting the best out of this squad. It doesn’t seem to matter who’s available, and everyone that does take the floor seems to play above their means every other night.

Josh C:

So in a division game, maybe they do keep it close enough. I think that the number probably tells you to play the Warriors here, even though they are in a bit of a tailspin. Five and a half does seem big in a divisional game. However, like I said, you look at everything and the fact that they are well rested, they are playing a super depleted team, one who should struggle to score offensively, which means that you don’t necessarily need an outbursts from Golden State to cover this number.

Josh C:

I think the Warriors of the right side here. I just… I couldn’t bring myself to play it. I think the unders is probably the right side here, and again, I just couldn’t bring myself to play it because of the volatility that is the Clippers offense, where they literally live and die by the three ball. And if they have one of those nights where they’re shooting upwards of 40%, they can put up 110 points pretty easily just given the sheer number of threes that they’ll be hoisting up in this game.

Kate C:

Chris, anything? Draymond Green’s coming back on the 14th. That’s only a couple days away.

Chris F:

Draymond is?

Kate C:

Yeah.

Chris F:

Oh, that’s great. I didn’t… I didn’t even know that we had-

Kate C:

Or is targeting for return. I shouldn’t say he’s coming back.

Chris F:

Okay.

Kate C:

Targeting, March 14th.

Chris F:

Yeah. That’d be nice if we get some of the… Some actual days for some of these star players. Anthony Davis, Caruso who’s not a star, but I think the Bulls need him.

Kate C:

Yeah.

Chris F:

Yeah. This game, I wanted to play on the Clippers because they’re getting seven points. It’s the divisional opponent and from what the Warriors have showed us recently, plus the Clippers off that embarrassing loss to the Knicks, which I believe was their last game if my memory serves.

Kate C:

[crosstalk 00:30:51] on the Knicks.

Chris F:

Yeah. So Ty Lue… You have to expect he is going to get his team right and this version of the Warriors is a team that the Clippers can have defensive success against. They can stop them on the perimeter. That’s for sure, as much as you can stop Steph Curry. But at the same time too, Klay Thompson just has not been shooting well. So you have to expect some regression positively in that regard as well.

Chris F:

And this is a great spot for the Warriors at home, after resting players. Of course, their bench, their depth played hard last night. So maybe that affects them in some way, but I guess I have to lean Warriors, but I would just stay away from this game. I don’t think the numbers right. I think the Warriors win, probably a good money line, add to your parlays if you want that or something, but the fact that I was finding myself wanting to play in the Clippers instead of the Warriors in the spot had me off a bet.

Kate C:

I’m very interested to see how Klay Thompson starts performing once Draymond Green is back in. Because we’ve seen the Warriors as a whole kind of take a dip since Draymond went out, and he went out right at the same time that Klay Thompson was returning. So they haven’t played much at all together this season so that’ll be just something to keep an eye on and kind of watch for how Klay’s performance changes if at all once Draymond’s back.

Kate C:

So no official play on that game for any of us, but also these guys leaning Warriors a little bit. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today. Only two games that we like, the Nets minus four for Chris and I, and the Magic plus six and a half over the Suns for Josh.

Chris F:

Tough slate.

Kate C:

What is that?

Chris F:

It’s a tough slate.

Kate C:

It is a tough slate. Today was not a very pretty card. There was not much clearly that any of us liked on that one. So always good just to bet what you like. Don’t force anything, right? We’ve talked about that before.

Chris F:

Yeah. Unless you want to bet on the Pacers tonight, you can do that I guess, but who wants the-

Kate C:

No.

Chris F:

Betting the Pacers is like betting the Magic. Who’s going to do that? Oh, wait a minute.

Josh C:

It’s funny because the Pacers were the only other team I had circled today as well.

Kate C:

Hey, I might look to towards the Pacers over the Cavs right now. Cavs are not doing very well. Jarrett Allen’s out for a little while. They’re kind of a massive [inaudible 00:33:03].

Chris F:

Yeah, that’s huge. Yep.

Kate C:

Well, that is all we have for you. We would love it if you’d head over to Twitter, give us a follow. Chris is @Farleybets. Josh is @punt_school and I am @KateConstable. We look forward to seeing you back here at the same time tomorrow 4:00PM Eastern. Have a good night and don’t forget to check our sportsbook.

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