Good afternoon. Welcome into the BetUS NBA Show. Josh, Kate and Chris here with you once again, to break down the Conference Finals in the NBA, we’ll get to the Eastern Conference Finals, game two of that, between the Heat and the Celtics in just a little while, but let’s start today with the Warriors-Mavs. Yesterday you two were going head to head. Chris had the Mavs, Josh had the Warriors and Chris, yep, you might just want to move out of the screen, cause I want to say Josh kind of owned you there, but it was basically, the Warriors played really well yesterday, right Josh? Yeah, they did. They, they kind of played as expected, I think. They had that little bit more energy to them, a little bit more zest to their play. They were more aggressive offensively, especially in getting to the basket, as opposed to settling for too many threes, which, again, was Dallas’s downfall in a game one environment where they weren’t falling, but you know, very much a “live and die by the three” type of team. And unfortunately for them, they weren’t dropping. It’ll be really interesting to see it, like I said, in games two and games three specifically, whether they do make any adjustments to try and get to the rim a little bit more. I think they had five field goal attempts at the rim, which is really bad. You don’t need me to sort of highlight just how bad that is and what that does in terms of limiting your offensive potential. So yeah, again, I think that the key here is going to be, what adjustments can they make offensively to balance out those threes? Because there were some good looks and they were missing ones that were dropping for them in that Phoenix series in particular. And you know, in the first round series as well. So the shots we know will eventually fall, unfortunately for them is, do they want to put themselves in an 0-2 hole again before they do start hitting it at 40 plus percent from deep and trying to come back into the series that way, especially against the team, I think that will make the necessary adjustments to not allow that to happen. So again, the Warriors looked good, the Mavs looked sloppy. I think it was somewhat projected just based on how both teams would have to adapt to new series and new environments. It’ll be interesting to see what happens for the rest of the series. I don’t think the games will be quite so straightforward. Put it that way. Yeah. Maybe the Warriors might not win by that big of margin going forward, but the Warriors did struggle shooting from three in the first half, they were 4-of-14, so they kind of made adjustments coming into the second half, took that party in and around the paint, and really got their mid-range game going. And that was kind of what gave them success in that second half. Chris, what all did you see in that game that maybe the Mavs could improve on going forward? Well, first of all, like I said, the Warriors are going to rout the Mavericks. So I was… No, this time I was completely wrong on this one, but you know, there’s a few things that obviously went awry, right? I mean, Luka had 20 points. He didn’t have a stellar game, was starting to come alive in the first half and then kind of just died off in the second half. You know, maybe it was a similar thing that we saw with the Celtics, right? This is a team who maybe was just a little bit exhausted. They’ve been playing a ton of games, just got done with the seven game series against the best team in the NBA all season. So I mean that alone is exhausting, but yeah, I mean the Golden State Warriors did a really good job of kind of exposing Dallas’s game plan on defense. Dallas was paying a little too much attention to Steph and that was creating a lot of open shots. I mean, Andrew Wiggins was standing there like he was in practice mode, just nailing those shots. He looked fantastic in that game. And I can’t say that I expected that from Wiggins, but his length made a real difference. Kevon Looney, right from the start. That’s probably one of the best efforts I’ve ever seen from him. You know, he was completely out of breath at the end of the first quarter, but he played fantastic, just doing a lot of those scrappy plays that they need. I still trust that the Mavericks can correct some things here. Jason Kidd has shown that he can make some really solid defensive adjustments. You know, I’m, I’m not too concerned about their offense because those marks are really low, I mean, 36% from the field, I think 23% from beyond the arc. And when the Warriors are shooting 56% from the field, good luck ever beating them, right? But they just couldn’t figure out a way to defend what the Warriors were doing. And that’s kind of the thing about the Warriors, right? They’re not as structured, but man, when they get into rhythm, they are really tough to stop. But I think Jason Kidd’s going to throw some things at them. I think it was a brilliant defensive plan from Steve Kerr and the Warriors here. They were switching up their defenses all the time. They’re going zone, 1-2-2, all kinds of things. And I think, as high as Luka’s basketball IQ is, that was throwing him off a little bit. I expect him to adjust. I expect players like Dorian Finney-Smith to have a lot better games than that. I mean, he could not shoot a three or buy a three to save his life. So there’s probably some things that are going to positively regress for the Mavericks. And I think we saw the best version of the Warriors, right? And we’ve seen the Warriors when they kind of start the coast. You know, I was a big time Warriors defender heading into the playoffs because they were looking pretty clumsy, but this is still a team that can win a championship for sure. I just, we still haven’t seen them be that consistent in the playoffs. Their defense hasn’t been that impressive. Sometimes they don’t show up. So if they show up this entire series, the Warriors are capable of doing that to the Mavericks, every single game. But I think some of the adjustments by Dallas and by Luka are going to make a big difference. So all that to say, I was definitely wrong about that game, but I got the first quarter under that’s something. You did. That was a very comfortable win for you, too. Yeah. Slowed down late in that first quarter. Yeah. And that was thanks to your Mavs. So you can’t be too angry at them. They played their part in that one. Right, in the first 12 minutes they did okay. Well the Mavs have lost the first game of the two series prior to this. They lost the first game against the Jazz, went on to win game two, but lost both game one and game two against the Suns in that series. And obviously, went along to win in game seven. So definitely some adjustments coming, no need to panic at all for Mavs fans after that loss, even though it was a pretty big loss, but it’s only one game, it’s a long series. What kind of beer do we think Luka Dončić drinks? I was… Surely that picture had to have been taken a while ago, but I’m kind of curious, like what do you think he drinks? I’m glad you brought that up. Do we think that’s the reason why Luka only score… No, I’m just kidding. He’s allowed to drink a beer before a game if he wants. And I don’t know, it’s probably like a hardcore IPA or you know, those dudes from Eastern Europe, they punch different, they probably drink different. So I don’t… It’s probably something pretty heavy. Asking all the hard questions on the NBA Show. Chris, we really got to get down to the heart of these matters. All right. Let’s get away from those hard hitting questions. We’ll turn our attention to today’s games and we’ll look at our overall record to start things off. Chris is still leading the way, but Josh, a good win yesterday gets you another “W” on the board. Celtics and Heat, Celtics are looking for a “W” tonight in Miami. Heat are a three-point favorite. Total here is -207. That’s climbed up a little bit from game one. That total was -203.5. Miami took that game one. They won by 11, thanks to 41 points by Jimmy Butler. Chris, we all played the under, as I mentioned, -203.5 in game one, and we all lost that. So do you have any looks today on overs? Whether it’s the game over or maybe a first half over? I do. I do. How’d you know that Kate, I’m looking at… I don’t know, I’m just really smart. I’m looking at quite a few overs in this one. And the main reason that is because of the Boston Celtics, we saw how they started the series against the Nets. That was a very contentious game. That’s a team they know very well, but it came down to the last second. They won ultimately, but that was a really hard fought game. You know, they turned around and they obviously won the next three games, right, they swept them. Against the Bucks, they start off with that loss. They come back in the next series in the second game and they start off really hot, especially in the first half. The Bucks are just one of those or, I’m sorry, the Celtics, to me, are just one of those teams who, even though they’re so good, they’re so talented, I do think that they’re the better team in this series, they still are young, right? So they’re just in these really big spots now. They haven’t had as much NBA experience as a lot of the players on the Miami Heat. And think about a PJ Tucker, for example, who is in the finals, he’s a champion now. Last year, players like that, Jimmy Butler has been before. So I just expect the Celtics to settle in a little bit more tonight. You know, I got to say, for all of our listeners and probably everybody across the world who bets NBA, it is so frustrating to try to keep track of these injuries in the regular season. That’s one thing, when it’s the same thing going on in the playoffs, it’s like, “Man, oh man.” So I guess Al Horford didn’t really have COVID or something; looks like he’s playing tonight. That’s a good thing for the Celtics. It’s a really good thing that Marcus Smart is playing too. But historically, we look at that matchup between Marcus Smart and Jimmy Butler in particular. Jimmy Butler has no problem when Smart is facing him on defense. And in fact, Butler is averaging, in the last five games against this Celtics team, he’s averaging 52% from the floor, and somebody found his stat out there, we have to verify it, so I don’t know, but I think it’s an even better percentage against Marcus Smart. Is Marcus Smart, going to cover him the whole game? Probably not. But I think evidenced by last game, we saw that Miami was happy to go with the flow and the rhythm of the Celtics, the Celtics brought it hard from the very start. I think they’re going to do that again today. I expect some really good offensive adjustments from them. And now that they have their whole team back, they can do a lot. Derrick White, not being in today, I guess he just had a baby, right? That just popped up on Twitter. Yeah. So congrats to him. But I don’t think that makes a huge difference in the Celtics game plan or in their offense. He’s a good player, he’s not a great player, but you know this game, I don’t want to pick the Celtics overall, because the Heat at home, when they gain energy, they can be fantastic. But the thing about the Heat is they’re such an off and on team. They can be so hot and so cold. So I’m going to go with the Celtics early, +24.5 in the first, and for the first half to be driven up by a lot of offense in the first half. I expect this pace to kind of keep up. I think it’ll calm down as the season goes on, or as the series goes on. All right. I like that. Mitch has taken the third quarter money line for the heat. That’s his only NBA bet so first quarter, first half, third quarter, all around. I’m going to play Boston tonight, going against you Chris a little bit. You’ve not wanted to take the Celtics, but I’m going to play them tonight. That game one, they were coming off of a seven game… What are you looking at me for? They’re not going against me. I’m playing on somethings overs. You just said that you don’t want to play Boston tonight because you’re scared of the Heat. I’m saying I’m going to go against that point. You just love going one on one with Farley Bets. I get it. That’s fine. You’re still mad about the Suns. I know you are Kate, but the… No, we’re on the same page. I think the Celtics are going to score a lot tonight. Okay. Well yeah. Clearly if the Celtics are going to score a lot, they’re going to be the ones to dictate the pace of this game. And so if that’s the case, then I like the Celtics even more tonight. Coming into that game one, they’re coming off the series against the defending NBA champs, they had seven games one day of rest, travel spots. Two starters announced out at the very last minute. Now Al Horford, Marcus Smart back in tonight and talk about Marcus Smart maybe defending Jimmy Butler. Sure fine. But Jimmy Butler offensively targeted Payton Pritchard a ton in that game one. He was the pigeon for Miami, which is whatever player the opposing team is, the weakest defender, pretty much, is who you’re going to target. And so Marcus Smart being back in the lineup means a lot less Payton Pritchard minutes. So I think that will be obviously working in the Celtics favorite in order to have their Defensive Player Of The Year on the floor more often than Payton Pritchard. He also went to 30 for 34 from the free throw line in that game one, I don’t think that’s going to happen again. I mean that to take 34 free throws, that’s kind of an absurd number, so that’s out of the way. And the Celtics won every quarter outside of that third quarter, it was a miserable third quarter and they ultimately lost the game because of that performance in the third quarter. But overall, they played really well in the first half, leading at half. And even in that fourth quarter. So I’m going to take the points with the Heat, with the Celtics tonight. Kind of wish I had gotten it where it opened, I believe at four, four and a half, but we’re at three now with Al Horford and Marcus Smart being in and I’m going to grab it there. Josh, what’s your play for tonight? I love that you’re on the Celtics, Kate, [inaudible 00:13:07]. That’s exactly where I’m leaning, but I haven’t taken them in this game specifically. I’ll probably take a serious position before this game tips off though, which is essentially correlated, assuming that they win, I think that’s the best entry point is right now. And even if they lose, maybe I probably go back to that well anyway, before game three. But for this game specifically, I’m looking at the Miami Heat team total under for a lot of what you guys have said in a way as well, and the first point being Marcus Smart, being likely to be back, Al Horford already being back, means that you’re going to get a Celtics team who is a little bit more aligned in how they’re going to execute at both ends of the floor. And I think the fact that their offensive execution can go back to what it normally is, will play a big part in improving their defense as well because the amount of turnovers that we saw from the Boston team that led to transition opportunities for Miami that led to either easy buckets in transition or fouls, which obviously led to free points anyway, was pretty alarming. And I think that’s the one thing that Ime Udoka would’ve pointed out, that the sloppiness on offense is going to translate to offense for Miami and eliminating those mistakes will likely be a lot easier when you have both Al Horford and Smart out on the floor. Two guys who were very comfortable, very good with the ball in their hands, excellent play makers themselves. And it puts a little bit less pressure on Jason Tatum to have to do everything outside of just scoring the basketball. And you know, when you have him having to create and his usage numbers too high, that’s traditionally when he does get sloppy with possession. And I think that’s exactly what we saw, particularly in that third quarter where he had a multitude of turnovers that essentially swung momentum in that game entirely. So Boston, like I said, getting their starters back, getting a more efficient offense is going to lead to a better defense for them. I’m not sure the pace will be quite as high as it was with those guys back in either. Like I said, when I made the adjustments to Smart and Horford being out, my projected total went up. So I’m assuming them being back as well will probably play back to what the initial projection was for me in game one, which does give some value as well to the full game under. But like you said, we’ve seen Boston’s offense in situations like this go off and you know, if they do, maybe they do enough to carry that over the full game total themselves, given that it is still a relatively low number. But for me, I do think the Celtics are ultimately going to get it done. And like I said, I think that defensively, the things that they need to do are pretty minimal in order to stop Miami being as efficient and effective as what they were in game one. So let’s hope that transpires here and if they can steal one on the road, I think we’ve officially got ourselves a series over in the Eastern Conference. That we do. If they don’t steal one on the road, Josh, you said you still might take Boston, find a good series price there. Chris, do you think Boston still has a chance? I mean, do you still, maybe? Oh yeah. Oh yeah. And I think that’s what Josh is doing with this. Sneaky play by Josh, because all things could happen. All things could happen in his favor. Exactly. I mean the Heat could technically still win this game, score under that amount of points and then he could get the future. Wow. See, this is why Josh is Josh. If Boston wins, then he’s happy. That’s right. If the Celtis win he’s happy, probably nails his bet anyway. So yeah, I am definitely looking at, and that’s why I’m hoping that the Heat win tonight and why I don’t want to kind of play on the Celtics, because I would love to play on the Celtics, down 0-2, going back home. We’ve seen the Celtics do that before. They’re going to be much more confident, much more comfortable at home. A young team needs that to kind of get started sometimes, and to kind of get back in rhythm. I think this game’s going to be a lot closer tonight, but I sure hope that the Heat win so that I could take advantage of that futures because I mean, whether they win this series or not at that point, the value is going to be terrific. Yeah. So we are going against each other. You want the Heat to win tonight, I want the Celtics. Okay. Yeah. That’s true. Is this a seven game series? I think if the Heat win tonight, it is. What do you think Josh? I had it… I’m still going to stay with what I said pre-series, which was Boston in six. They dropped game one. I think they dropped game five as well. Those are the two that I think that they lose. I think they win tonight, hold home court and then close it out on their home floor as well in game six. So I’m going to stick with that until it’s no longer mathematically possible. And then I’ll reassess and let you know how many games Boston needs to win. All right. Payton Pritchard. Yes, Payton Pritchard still going to play tonight. No Derrick White. He’s having a baby. Yep. I think it comes down to the adjustment in rotations as well. Even when Derrick White moves into the starting lineup, his minutes in the staggered lineups aren’t the same as when they are with Marcus Smart because Ime Udoka obviously can trust Smart to run out there with a multitude of different guys. Whereas with Derrick White, I don’t think there’s that level of trust yet. And so you have to essentially run him with the starters when he is with the starting unit. And that leaves a lot of holes in that second unit. And you know, we saw minutes out there where Aaron Nesmith was partnered with Payton Pritchard and that was obviously concerning. And I think those are the sort of things that we won’t see this time around with Smart available. Okay. Well, and just to be clear though Marcus Smart did get an MRI done. So I mean, there’s a chance that, I mean, if they had an MRI done on him, they thought it could be fairly serious that he was in a significant amount of pain. So there is a world where we don’t see a 100% Marcus Smart. I think 75% Marcus Smart is still better than Payton Pritchard 110%. But you know, there is a world where maybe that he could expose that a little bit too. If Marcus Smart is limping around or something. Yep. I think as well with the defensive adjustments, when you have Horford back, and you have Horford with Rob Williams, the big thing there is being able to then run Rob Williams as just a free roaming help defender. And that makes a huge difference to Boston’s defensive scheme. They’re one of the few teams, I think Golden State, probably the only other one that really does it with Draymond Green, where you have just a free roaming help defender in the paint who can come across and do what’s necessary. And those are the two reasons why I think both Boston and golden state kind of have the advantage in a series like this because when you have that flexibility available to you, it makes scoring extremely difficult. And when you can rely on your defense to the manner that both those teams potentially can in these series, your offense kind of takes care of itself in the little way. Yeah. On our, on our podcast last week, Kate and I were saying, we need to talk more about Robert Williams III, I mean that guy is like a super fit Zion, right? Yeah. Especially on defense. I mean, he’s kind of a freak of nature the way that he can move around at his size. So to have him back and it looks like he’s going to be back for game two, maybe he’s healthy now. That’s huge for the Boston defense. Yeah. Couldn’t agree more. Having the game under the belt as well is something that seems to have just been completely brushed aside. Whereas, the reality is, it’s going to make a big difference. I think for his game two effort, not that he was bad in game one by any stretch of the imagination, but yeah, the impact he could now have going forward, I think is going to be notable. You guys are making me love my Celtics +3 bet even more, talking about all… You know, why Kate? Because it’s the right side. But why aren’t you taking it, Josh? You got to put on your card. You’re right. You’re right. I’m going to do what you guys did yesterday and just talk myself into it. And by tip off, I’ll have that plus series plus team total under and yeah. Everything. Everything. We’ve kind of got everything covered in this game. Chris is going to take the overs for the Celtics, first half over and the game over in the first half as well. I’m going to play the Celtics +3. And Josh has taken the Heat team total -105. Questions for today, same question as always, any props? Yeah. Is everyone silent because you’re waiting for me? Yep. Always. I feel like in a series like this, the most difficult part now is obviously having the integration of those new players. Everyone’s sort of falling back into line a little bit. You know, I would probably go back to the Jaylen Brown well here, as strange as that sounds, obviously he wasn’t particularly good in game one, but he’s the type of guy who struggles the most when Marcus Smart and Al Horford are out of the lineup because of the fact that he isn’t able to work off of the space that they create, he has to then become sort of his own shot creator. I don’t think he’s quite at the level necessary to be able to do that. So the extra space afforded to him now is probably going to be to his benefit and one where it comes to fruition. So Jaylen Brown points go back to something like Jason Tatum rebounds. He was extremely dominant last series. I think that’s going to come again to the fore here, given that, if we’re projecting Boston’s defense to do well and Miami to miss more shots, the rebounding has to be there as well for them to close out those possessions. And like I said, I think Tatum’s going to be a pretty important piece to that, as well for them. I might go with Jimmy Butler assists tonight. I mean a big scoring performance in game one. I could see the Celtics playing him a little bit tougher defensively, which will open up some other players. And maybe he’s more of a facilitator tonight. I still think he’ll be able to score, kind of get whatever he wants. But if the Celtics try and clamp down a little bit more on him, I could see him dishing out some passes and kind of facilitating that offense a little bit more. So I might look at Butler’s assists over. Chris, you want to take this next question? There’s been a noticeable reduction in sneaker, squeak noises from sneakers this year. Is that an issue affecting the totals or the scoring margin? What do you think? Yeah, award-winning handicapper asked that question. So I’m going to assume that it’s very serious. So you know what, here’s the thing, Chris, I don’t know much about audible noises during a game, especially sneaker noises when there’s a 20,000 fan crowd in attendance. No, Chris, I don’t think it’s making that much of a difference. What do you think Josh? I love the fact that arguably the sharpest person in the chat decided that this was the best question to ask the panel regarding this game. How do you answer? I’m trying to think of like a witty answer, but it’s just, it’s 6:25 in the morning here. My brain is still processing the fact that the question has been asked, I’ve got nothing. Kate, do you? Yeah, I’ve got a little theory there. I’ll humor you, Las Vegas Chris. Excuse me. We need more sneaker noise. Guys play harder when there’s sneaker noise. In an open gym setting when the gym is silent and all you hear is the squeaking from the sneakers. There is no better sound than that. You know guys are playing hard. They’re going after each other. Without any sneaker noise, with the fans too loud, scoring drops. The totals drop. Books are all over it. They’ve got this stuff figured out already. So… Excellent. …I think that’s exactly why we’ve seen lower totals in these first two games, maybe. That’s excellent analysis, Kate. Wow. Yeah. All right. There’s never a question from Las Vegas Chris that’s not really nuanced, so that’s just the way he works. Can I opt for just one more question on this show? Did anyone… You can do whatever you want. I can do whatever I want? I don’t know about that. This is a free floor. Have we seen this controversy between Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher? That is really fascinating. Well, I don’t know if it’s fascinating, I think it’s kind of a trashy news, but I mean, Nick Saban just kind of coming out and saying that Texas A&M is spending way more money than Alabama can. First of all, I find that hard to believe. Second of all, love that Jimbo Fisher lashed right back at him and is like, “Excuse me, bazaar of all college football everything,” you know, it’s a little, I mean, there’s definitely some narcissism among these guys. There has to be, I mean, they’re treated like gods, but that is entertaining stuff. Like I could watch these two, duke it out all day. It’s entertaining. And it’s interesting because aren’t they good friends? I mean, Jimbo worked under Nick Saban forever. They’ve had the utmost respect for each other these past couple years, competing. And now here they are trashing each other publicly. So I mean, you just kind of, I feel like we’re watching like Real Housewives, but sports edition. I don’t watch Real Housewives, but I’d watch sports edition. Fair. Yeah. Yeah. Look, fair. I mean, I think when it comes to a situation like this, the only thing we want to know, Chris, is how does that impact Devin Booker’s ratings in the NBA and where… I’m happy to bring Devin right back up again. You know what I just learned? I can’t believe I didn’t learn this. Devin Booker, there was a video of Devin Booker over the summer getting double teamed and complaining about it. Come on, man. Isn’t that a part of basketball? Getting double teamed, especially if you’re a superstar? That should tell you everything you need to know. Hey, isn’t it a part of college football to be paying players under the table, handshakes, things like that? It is now. Yeah, sure. Yeah. All right. So let’s make it our goal, Josh, to incorporate Devin Booker into every show for the rest of the season. We don’t have that many shows left. I mean, assuming that these two series goes to seven games of 14, seven more in the finals. I mean, we could have… Already had 21… 19 shows left. Yeah. Yeah. That’s it. Yeah. You guys like that math? That’s on the spot. [crosstalk 00:27:10] Awesome. All right. I don’t know if that math checks out, but I believe you. Thank you guys. Just not as accurate as my day-to-day math that I do between games. Yeah. All right. Our best bets for today, we’re getting way off the rails here. Chris has taken two overs to start things out, overs for the Celtics, first half, team total, and then the game total for the first half over. I’m going to play Celtics +3. Josh, Heat team total -105. And as always, we would love for you to hit the alert, subscribe button, so you know when we’re going live and head over to Twitter, to all of our stuff, all of these clips from the show or anywhere you want to find any of the other shows is @BetUSTV. So you can find everything there on Twitter. Also, Josh is @Punt_School. I’m @KateConstable and Chris is at @FarleyBets. All right, gentlemen, Josh, we’ll miss you tomorrow after three straight days with you, and Chris, we’ll see you tomorrow. Oh yeah. There’s the guy named Alex on this show. That’s right. Alex going to be back. So all right, we will see everyone tomorrow. What’s that? I’ve enjoyed our three day run. That’s all I wanted to say. It’s been a solid three day run for the three of us. Three Musketeers. All right. That’s all. See you tomorrow, 4:00 PM Eastern. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Have a good night.Kate Constable:
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat (Game 2) | NBA Conference Finals Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
