Lakers vs Nuggets Game 4 West Finals Picks [May 22nd] 2023 NBA Predictions & Basketball Betting Odds

Chris:

Yeah, well I’ll try to keep it quick, Alex. Loaded, loaded question. I guess, well first of all, I guess we should ask ESPN what the Celtics chances are of winning this playoff series because.

Alex:

[inaudible 00:01:16].

Chris:

Their percentages seem last night their percentages or analytics seem to be a bit off, right? They’ve got 3% chance for the Heat at the start of this series. Well that hasn’t worked out. I mean there’s always a chance the NBA, the Celtics are a very good team again on paper talent wise, but what’s happening here is the intangibles that the Heat carry with them, their culture, the leadership that they have and obviously a huge disparity in coaching is showing itself in every one of these games. And I tweeted out about it yesterday, there was nobody on the Celtics coming out of the half who once they started to flounder again, nobody was getting in anyone’s faces being vocal on the court.

I don’t see the leadership on this team. Jimmy Butler and his veteran crew are making them look like they’re just a bunch of dads like punking their sons and that, I think they’re kind of soulless at this point. Mazzula had nothing to say after that series. You really couldn’t muster any words and I don’t know if any of us can, so kudos to the Heat. I’m going to be cheering for the Heat in the NBA finals, assuming that they get there. And I would also say I do give them a chance in the NBA finals because we just keep learning. I think we get a little too much in the weeds when it comes, as analysts, we think that we know everything that’s going on on the court. We really don’t. We don’t know that much. We’re not coaches, we’re not players, we’ve never been in the NBA, but from a high level what we can see and what we can obviously tell is that the Heat are playing differently. More chemistry, they’re in tune, they’re well coached and when you have that recipe, you can beat any team in the NBA.

I know that Denver has looked fantastic, but the Heat have these intangibles working for them that I think it’s just really hard for other teams to overcome once they get punched in the mouth. I could talk on and on about that series and the Heat, they’re fun to watch, feel really bad for Josh and Celtics fans because they really don’t deserve this either You’re heading into this season after going into the NBA finals, hoping for the most, and to go down like this in the Eastern conference oh to three, it’s pretty bad man.

Alex:

Yeah, it’s just wild. The difference in regular season and postseason and Skee, you and I were joking about this before the show you and I bet Miami to miss the playoffs, we were kind of all in on that and it was close. We were four minutes away from cash in that bet, but they survived the regular season. Get to the postseason and I think Chris, what we may be underrate here a little bit is how big of an impact Spoelstra has. I think year in and year out we succumb to the postseason and specifically him, just that impact is incredible and people are still sleeping a little bit on Bam Adebayo. I don’t know that if again he’s ever going to be kind of a top five talent, but what he does defensively, what he allows them to do offensively is great. And then just look how successful this franchise is.

I was looking quickly here before the show. They’ve got four guys that have been giving them big minutes here, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent, four guys that were undrafted. Every team had a chance to take these guys. Everybody had a chance to sign them, they Heat take them and turn them into 45 points in game one, 60 points in game two and 79 points last night. Just that ability to build talent and have, it’s crazy to say the heat are one of the only teams that have seven, maybe even eight guys they kind of trust at this point. What’d think of the game last night, Skee. Do you give the Celtics any chance of somehow getting out of this thing alive and what do you expect Miami to do in the finals?

Skee:

Well, before I forget, just been cross my mind that Caleb Martin wasn’t even the better twin, right? He played for Nevada, the two twins and he wasn’t even the better one. Now I can’t even think about what the other one is doing and Caleb is out here killing it. So I think that just goes to Miami’s,

Alex:

Cody Martin.

Skee:

Cody Martin, there you go. Heat culture and they’re just good at, how do I say, they’re good at getting the most out of everybody over there or making the young players better for lack of better terms there. So that was interesting to me. Was I surprised with the outcome of yesterday’s game? Absolutely not. I’ve said plenty of times, Mazzulla is untrustworthy. None of those guys, I mean he’s not getting anybody up to play going to what you said Noops, as far as the leadership and he’s not making a whole lot of adjustments, so I feel like the team is out there.

They’re just like, what do we do? They don’t even know what to do, so it’s no way that I can get behind that going up against the best coach left in the playoffs and the player that I said I trusted the most in this series, which he’s proven me, right, Jimmy Butler. So I’m happy I have a heat plus four 50 to advance in my pocket and it looks pretty good right now, so satisfied with what I’ve been watching there and I don’t know, did we talk about the Laker game at all?

Alex:

We’ll get to that. I figured when we talk about the actual game, I want to give you a little bit of a stay of execution, although if you want to get into it now,

Skee:

No it’s okay. It’s okay.

Alex:

Yeah, I mean all of us have Miami tickets. I know Skee you and I took them just to win the series. Chris, you had them, plus two and a half games. I did lay a minus one and a half. I’m super mad. I didn’t at least sprinkle the four oh. I mean, I didn’t expect it to be this jarring. The Celtics team just has so much talent, but it’s been crazy and we’ll see the guys will be back tomorrow to talk about that game. Chris, you got something else here before we jump forward?

Chris:

Yeah, yeah, I just wanted to say one thing. I have a lot of heat friends and I know there’s like or Heat fans that are friends and I talked to them about this and a lot of them are just like, see we told you this Heat team is coming. You all underrated us. Here’s the thing, it wasn’t that crazy to think that this team wasn’t going to do much. I mean they lost against the Hawks in the play in. Final three minutes, they could have lost to the Bulls as a one point game. They were down. This is a team who came into the playoffs bottom third of the NBA in both offense and defense. I realize playoff, the playoffs are different, but there’s a lot of evidence to think that this team could not hang with the teams that they faced in the Eastern Conference finals.

Obviously credit across the board and one thing that I’m noticing is you listen to Gabe Vincent in his interview after that last game and he has a maturity about him. It’s like every player on this team just kind of says the right things. They’re focused, they remind me of the Patriots of Old in the NFL, right? They just kind of bring guys in and they make it happen because they have their leadership. So it’s not that crazy to think that the Heat we’re going to fail, but I think we all did overlook hashtag Heat culture because it is something special.

Alex:

Heat culture’s a thing.

Chris:

I want to give Alex and I, a little bit of credit just because I personally feel like the sign of a good handicapper is somebody who, if you have an opinion about a team and then you see them play for a little bit and you change your opinion, you don’t just be stubborn and say, no, I was right the first time. So that’s Alex and myself. We talked very badly about this Miami Heat team prior to that second playing game and I heard Bam talk about it. He said they were playing poor and it came to that second playing game, and they all had a meeting and were talking about it and ever since then we’ve seen a much different Miami team. So just give us a little bit of credit for recognizing that

Alex:

Got to change, got to adjust folks. Again, great games. It’s been kind of a fun series but it looks like we’re giving forward. Let’s take a quick look at our best bet record here before we jump into tonight’s action. Again, just a stellar month for the show. Unfortunately our street came to a crashing halt on Friday. Oh and three after a runup. I think it was 16 oh and three or something like that or 17 oh and three, but again, over 35 games, over 500 at this point. Just about everybody except, well one of us above 500 at this point. It’s been a great season.

Let’s keep going. We’ve got another game tonight. Game four, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Denver Nuggets one more time at home. They are down three. Nothing. We’re looking at a line here. The Lakers, three point favorites adjusted down a little bit. They were five and a half the other night, the total at 224, just a little bit higher than it was the other night at 225. Again, sort of one last ditch effort here for Lakers team that folks really doesn’t want to go down four games to none. Chris, what do you think of this matchup and what are you betting?

Chris:

Yeah, I have one bit on this game for this show and it’s on the under and that kind of is a Lakers bet, right? Because I’m counting on the Lakers defense to play a little bit better tonight, but there are two ways that I see this game going. Game three Heat Celtics kind of looked like a game four didn’t it? Like the Celtics just kind of gave up and I think if Denver comes out again and they’re scoring with significant prowess again and the Lakers can’t really catch up, I could see that happening in this game too. After a while, you just have to kind of admit the defeat against a great team. I think that could amount easily in and under that situation because when there’s a great margin and you’re kind of giving up, we’ve seen that happen. But I think the most likely narrative for this game is what we saw in game two.

The pace for these three games has not been very high. We’re like around 98. Game two is 97. This is just one of those games where I think the pace is going to continue to slow down because if the Lakers have any shot, obviously at staying in this series, they have to find a way to slow down the Denver Nuggets defense and usually that at least starts with Max effort from the beginning to keep that lead/ That Lakers defense who most people agreed, maybe in the final eight teams, but especially these Final Four teams, this is the best defense that remains. I think the Miami Heat Defense would’ve something to say about that at this point, but we’ve seen the Lakers put their defense into another gear. We’ve seen Jokić go off have an unbelievable game one, we saw Jamal Murray score 30 points in the first half of that last game.

We are seeing just really talented offensive players playing their best basketball, but that doesn’t happen on a game to game night. We are due a game where Jamal Murray and Jokić have a good game but not like a all world hall of fame type of performance. So I think we’re going to just see a little less of that tonight. The pace has been slow. Lakers have to come with their defense from the start of this game so that they don’t lose control of the right from the beginning and that favors an under. Game two is 108 to 103 didn’t even get close to this point and I handicapped games at LA around 215 as it is just because of how the pace has slowed down there in the past and the kind of defense they can play. So I’ll take another shot at an under, pretty scary in the series, but I think it makes sense for this game four situation.

Alex:

It’s interesting because you and I have some similar thoughts about how the game starts, but different angles. I’m going to take a Lakers first half team total over here number sitting right around 58 points. I know the pace has been kind of slow compared to the regular season, but the postseason when we generally see 95, 96 is it’s been a little quick and LA especially early in the game was push pace, try to get some easy points there, get things started and I think it’s been a little slower in the second half. So, going to basically play that as you look at that game, the shooting was very poor there. I’m expecting a little bit of a bounce back from that perspective and I think if you’re looking at this game, you’re finding ways to bet the Lakers, maybe a Nugget’s money line, but this does feel like a real letdown spot for a Denver team that knows they have to go home anyway that knows they’re not saving themselves too much rest here.

No matter what happens. The NBA finals start June 1st, so whether they close it out tonight or they close it out in a few days, they’ve still got a week plus basically to rest up there. Maybe not super important to get that here and maybe get home, try to close it out in front of the fans. Again, just kind of an angle. But I do, I think the Lakers come out quick tonight. Put up a nice number. I had them for 60 in the first half. I’ll go over 58. Skee, no best bets for you here, but what do you think of the matchup and what do you think of the purple and gold? Does your team have one last hurrah on them?

Skee:

I don’t trust them. If they did, they should have came out with it in that last game, right? Sorry, excuse me. I mean what I remember is the score was what, 10 to 24 they were getting killed right from the jump. If you can’t come out at home when you’re down oh two, why should I trust you when you’re down oh three? Ham, he continues to put D’Angelo Russell out there when he is giving the Lakers absolutely nothing. If he’s not scoring, what is he doing? He’s not a good defender, he’s not necessarily play making. So for him to have three points and Ham to continue to trust him, it makes me extremely upset and I just can’t see a whole lot of ways that the Lakers win anymore. Like Ru for as good as he’s been playing, he hasn’t touched the starting lineup. I just don’t know what the Lakers are doing right now. So the way I’m thinking about it, I think we’ll know pretty early in this game if the Lakers come out with a little bit of energy, maybe they do think they can still win this game.

But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lay down and just not want to make that trip back to Denver. So I can’t back the Laker side here. As far as the total is concerned, I just think maybe not playing the fastest, but both coaches have said off man shots we’re going to run and we’ve seen that from Denver time and time again. The Lakers are too busy complaining and Denver runs and takes advantage and the only game that stayed under so far, I mean the Lakers shot I think 27% from three and Denver didn’t shoot that great either. I just don’t see either team shooting that poor again in this one and I just trust more offense than defense. If I trust defense in this game, it has to come from the Laker side and they haven’t given me any reason to trust them. So I lean towards either first half over or probably the Denver side today.

Alex:

It might be a good idea to check and see what flights are going out of LAX tonight, see if there’s any sunny destinations and trying to see if we can figure out if any of these guys have flights. But it’s a joke that’s been made about Boston. Everyone is pretty sure that the Celtics brought their swim gear if you will. But I wondered Skee if the D’Angelo Russell thing, do you get any feeling that that’s just a LeBron thing? Throughout his career there’s been certain guys he’s always liked playing with and pushed to have them on the floor. I kind of get the feel for that because I too have been trying to figure out the Russell thing. He only played 20 minutes in the last game, so maybe they are starting to wind him down, but it feels like he’s one of those guys that if he’s not a starter it disrupts the order or something. Does that make any sense?

Skee:

Yeah, I can see where you’re going there. Some guys in the league, they have made their name, they’re starters now and they don’t want to go back and come off the bench. I feel like we saw that at Russell Westbrook, so maybe he thinks maybe, Ham thinks it might mess up the chemistry, maybe LeBron wants him out there. I’m not, I’m not too sure. I just don’t think he deserves to be on the court in the starting lineup.

Alex:

Yeah, that makes sense. Let’s get into some questions. I’ve got a couple here already. If you have anything that you do want to ask and you didn’t pop it in already, get it in there, but first our best bets Chris likes under 224. I’ll take a Lakers first half team total over 58. So fast first half, slow, second half, let’s thread this needle. I think this is a very doable situation. First question up here. Matt Mills, a very loyal watcher. Thank you Matt for your support. Should we take a long play and bet both front runners at the money line doubling down if they lose? I’m not entirely sure I understand this question. Are we saying just bet basically the teams that are up three oh, if they lose fire again next game, I think that’s kind of what we’re talking about here. Skee, what do you think of that strategy?

Skee:

Well, teams that are up three zero, they’ve never lost a series. So if he’s trying to do that, I don’t forget what it’s called. Yeah, yeah. The thing they do on roulette, we trying to do that for NBA, I can understand just because of that. It’s what Owen 195, it might not win this game, it may not even win the next game, but I see the Nuggets and the heat both advancing. So I understand the thought process from Matt Mills.

Alex:

Yeah, it’s an interesting strategy. It’s probably better than laying some of the big prices on the series there, like you said, no team down three oh is, I’m sorry, down three oh has ever come back to win a series. It does feel like we’re looking at a Denver Miami finals. What do you think, Chris? Is it worth trying that strategy?

Chris:

Yeah, I guess so. I just want to take money lines. The Heat and Denver Nuggets are, I mean they’re winning by margin every single one of these games. So, especially in a closeout game, if they come out strong, let’s say just even in the third quarter, second half, we saw again from the heat and from Denver in those last games. I mean think about it, the mountain that the other team has to climb at that point, right? Coming back in the game in the fourth quarter and then winning three more games after that. It’s psychologically gets to you at that point. So I wouldn’t go money line, that’s the only thing if you want to bet on the favorite or the front runners, I think it’s a good idea, but why not get better value at their ETS line?

Alex:

Yeah, looking at it. The Lakers are minus 145, so not too juicy there on the money line tonight, the heat minus 125 and the money line tomorrow night. So you bet Denver. I’m sorry, you bet Denver tonight plus 125. That’s not too bad. The problem is when you get back to Denver they’re going to be minus 300 or something on the money lines like you said Chris, unless you’re prepared to do something juicy like that, maybe look at a spread. But it’s an interesting strategy and again I think that’s probably a better way to do kind of what a Martingale or a rollover money line basically instead of taking the series there. Very interesting idea. David [inaudible 00:18:49] asks what do we think of the Lakers and the over now Chris you know talked about this a little bit. Part of the reason you like the under is because you like the Lakers. David, go back a few minutes, you can hear Chris’ kind of full explanation there. But again Chris, maybe just a shorter version. Why do you tie the Lakers to an under as opposed to an over?

Chris:

Well I tie the Lakers to an under for many reasons, right? I mean the nuggets essentially have played two outstanding road games in the NBA playoffs so far. But this whole season and even what we saw from them in the playoffs in previous series we saw against the Suns, I mean they got their asses handed to them. Denver doesn’t play as well on the road sometimes and this would equate as one of those games where we start to see a little bit of regression finally from their offense. I mean even a tiny bit of regression would still mean that they’re performing at a really high level because that’s how good their offense has been.

But you got to just expect if the Lakers are making things difficult for them and the Lakers are more efficient and their defense is finally operating at the level that they expect, it’d be very easy for the Nuggets to just be like, all right, well we’re going back to Denver for game five so good luck LA they’re probably not going to be able to hang with us. So that’s why I don’t see a situation where it’s another shooting contest and the Lakers still win. I don’t think the Lakers can hang with this Denver Nuggets offense and I think we’re seeing that playing as day

Alex:

And maybe even from another angle. You think about the way the Lakers win this game, there’s probably a chance they win this game. Denver just lies down and you’re holding an over ticket that the Lakers score 115, 116 points, Denver puts up 95 and you’re hold stuck, stuck hold the loser. I don’t know if I did the math quite right on that, but I think you get kind of the example there. Skee, what do you think here? And again at the base of the question, if the Lakers win is more of an over or an under type game,

Skee:

I think if the Lakers win it’s more of an under type game but I just don’t trust them to do it. So I don’t like that bet that David has listed there. I try to find other ways to make money in this game. I’ll just mentioned mean, we talked about D’Angelo Russell, probably still look at his points. Prop or PRA under. He’s just not doing a whole lot out there. That’s probably what I like the most right now.

Alex:

Yeah, it’s one of the best things you can do in the playoffs. Just kind of find somebody who’s minutes or for lack of better way of saying it, kind of getting jerked around and he continues to get less minutes here. Another question, [inaudible 00:21:10] probably my favorite name of all the people that watch the show, I love that name. What do we think of LeBron James over 40, I assume that’s points bounds in assist and not annual percentage rate? Skee, I know you’re feeling great about the Lakers here, a lot of positivity coming from you. What do you think of LeBron over again? One last kind of gas. Can he get one away from a triple double Again?

Skee:

If this game turns into a blowout, he’s going to be sitting on that bench in the fourth quarter. So like I said, if I don’t trust the Lakers, I wouldn’t necessarily be trusting LeBron to go over 40 PRA’s. So, not a bet that I’ll be making.

Alex:

Yeah, I don’t know if a lot of places have this, but I’ve seen first quarter, first half player props start to pop up and again, all small limits and stuff. If you want to play LeBron overs again, maybe do it early because you make a great point Ski, there’s a good chance even if the Lakers win this game that he’s sitting late in the game because the nuggets have benched everybody. Chris, what do you think about this?

Chris:

Well one thing I like about what LeBron’s been doing is even though he is missing layups and can’t make a three, he’s been like the last two games, I think he’s averaging 12 assists. So I mean I would look at his assists, but I don’t trust him for the 40 full for everything else at this point. He’s just looked a little bit off, which hey, I mean 20 years of dominance, let’s give the guy a break. But, he’s hasn’t really been the LeBron that we’re seeing and even the other playoff series so far. So I think this one has to run through Anthony Davis, that’s how the Lakers wins. So, I’m not comfortable with really any bet on LeBron other than assists.

Alex:

That makes a lot of sense. And then kind of a general question here enough from a betting perspective, do we think Joe Mazzulla gets fired at the end of the season? I guess so. There seems to be a couple big names that are floating out there. The Celtics have a chance at Monty Williams. Nick Nurse doesn’t have a job yet. Quin Snyder’s locked up with Atlanta. I still don’t understand why they didn’t hire him after they had the Udoka thing, but Chris what do you think the Celtics dump their guy who wasn’t even really a top assistant last year? It’s a weird spot.

Chris:

Yeah, I think this is the auto thing that Boston needs to do. If Boston loses this series, like it looks like they will, there’s going to be a lot of talk about what they should do to clean house, but I think he’s going to get blamed. I mean at the end of the day, this is still a team that got to the NBA finals last year and they played well at first in those NBA finals before Golden State took over. So it’s going to look bad if Ime Udoka in his new coaching gig has a great first season too, right? Because then we’re going to see that there’s a real disparity here. But yeah, I think he’s the easiest one on the chopping block and I mean he’s a young coach too. He can still get a job and have plenty of time in this association and still get a head coaching gig in the future so he he’ll be just fine. So I think it’s a clear yes at this point.

Alex:

Yeah, I wonder if there’s a way they could maybe keep him as an assistant and just kind of like, hey, wasn’t kind of his deal, we’ll get a real head coach or something like that. Because, like you said Chris, somebody is going down, somebody has got to be sacrificed here. A team that was had a lead in the NBA Finals last year needs six games to put away the Hawks almost loses to a Sixers team that was a mess and now here is just getting embarrassed. I think that’s the only real word for it here by Miami Heat team. That is just, I mean Jimmy Butler’s living his best life. He just seems so happy. Skee, what do you think here? Any chance Mazzulla makes it the summer?

Skee:

Hey I’m enjoying the Jimmy Antics. That’s what that was. If you didn’t see the game. Oh yeah, going back at Alford with the Neil and I got distracted now.

Alex:

Mazzulla, will he be fired?

Skee:

Oh Missoula, yes. Does he deserve to be fired? Absolutely. I mean he’s lost the locker room in my mind. What adjustments is he giving you? You see, the team hasn’t changed that much for them to play the drastic difference in their play from last year to this year. They have no heart. That’s what they’re playing like. In that game three, it was like the tin man. So I don’t think those guys really respect what he has to say anymore. And they should have a new coach, will they? I don’t know. Because, I feel like I remember them giving him an extension. So, already giving away that money, they might just ride it out one more year.

Alex:

The money definitely will matter. But I do think that he’s, maybe they find somebody else to come in and help him get a top assistant or something, but find some way to kind of take him down. But, thanks everybody. Some great questions there. While you’re down there, dump a comment, put a nice note for Skee. He’s a little bugged about the Lakers. Write up the nice about ski in the comments there. Give us a thumbs up and make sure you hit that subscribe button so you get all the shows. Let’s take a quick look at our best bets here before we wrap things up. Two wagers tonight. Chris likes the under 224. Again in that Nuggets, Lakers game, I’ll take a Lakers first half team total over 58. So hopefully a hot start and a slow finish and we can win both of our bets here.

Thanks everybody for watching, we really appreciate it. Again, make sure you follow the show on Twitter. You can find each of us as well. Chris at Farley Bets, Skee at Skee profit and myself at underscore Noops. My guess is that will pop up here in just a second at the bottom as we transition. There we go. Again, you can find each of us on Twitter there would really appreciate it. Thanks for watching again, the gang. We back tomorrow to talk about the Laker, Nuggets and hopefully I just want one of these teams to win. I need more basketball to watch. I didn’t realize that we were going to go like 14 days without NBA basketball, so let’s get some gentlemen’s sweeps. No sweeps more shows, more basketball. Again, the gang will be back tomorrow. Thanks everybody. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Best of luck until then.