Good afternoon. Happy Monday. Welcome in to the BetUS NBA Show. Chris Farley, Alex Christiansen and Kate Constable here with you today. We’re well into the conference finals, but so far these two series couldn’t be more opposite. Yesterday, the Mavs kind of laid an egg against the Warriors. Can’t seem to get much going and the Warriors are up three oh in that series. Alex, did you have anything on the game yesterday? No, nothing. Put it on. I mean, I had some Mavericks series bets. Beforehand, I made a NBA betting, Warriors to win game one, Mavericks to win the series. After the Mavs lost game one, I went and took some Mavs to win the series. You know, I had figured basically the Mavericks kind of took game one off with, you know… And, they did. I mean, if you watched it, there was not a really great effort by them in that first game. The second game looked a little more competitive, but two times now they’ve come out and part of the double-edged sword that is shooting 45 three pointers in a game is sometimes you only make 13 of them and it’s really tough to win a game when that much of your offense isn’t really going well for you. They only shoot 40% from the field. They get out-rebounded on the offensive boards, I mean, by seven. That’s really tough for them. So, I just wonder if this Mavericks team is maybe out of magic. The legs are a little bit of tired here as a Golden State team that’s a little bit rested and a little more comfortable in these situations takes advantage. I mean, they’re down three oh, so it’s pretty much over. Yeah. It was a terrible shooting night for Dallas last night. Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber and Bertans went a combined oh for 14 from three. And, Chris, that’s going to be hard to win games when your role players who are expected to knock down those shots lay a goose egg. Yeah. Like we talked about on this show plenty, right, the Mavericks are so predicated on that three point shot. I mean, it’s basically what their offense is, right? They drive in, they get out. So, you have to make at least some of those shots if you want to hang with a team like the Warriors. It seemed like from what I saw in the first quarter and second quarter, the game was kind of setting up for the Warriors to almost like allow the Mavericks to win it. You know? They were doing that thing again where they’re allowing plenty of open shots, maybe not as crisp on defense as they should have been. But, the Mavericks weren’t… Just weren’t making it, right? And then, in the third quarter, as usual… I don’t know if there’s a more sure bet in the NBA playoffs so far than the Golden State third quarter bet because they just really always show up in those third quarters and then once Steph starts making his shots… And, Andrew Wiggins deserves all the credits he’s getting on both sides of the court. Like, obviously that poster dunk is going to be everywhere now. He’s extremely athletic. But, he is full court covering Luka in every game and he’s not running out of energy. That’s impressive. You know? And, people talk about Luka’s shape and his energy in some of these games. You know, he probably does need to get in better shape if he’s going to hang with these superior athletes in the NBA playoffs like an Andrew Wiggins with his length and energy. You know, Luka still dropped 40, but it wasn’t enough and this is a Mavericks team who, as good as Jason Kidd has been making his adjustments on the defensive side, I’m not sure how adept he is on the offensive side because they just don’t look like they have a clue sometimes. It’s all Luka. It’s all three point shooting. And, when that’s not happening against a team as experienced and has that championship DNA like Golden State, it’s not going to go well. So, I mean, I think this series is over. You know, not to give away tomorrow’s show, but it’s going to be tough to find bets tomorrow because you have those situations where now the Mavericks are still at home. Obviously, it’s a must win. The Warriors could mail it in. But, how do you pick the Mavericks the way they’re playing against the Warriors right now? It’s just… It’s just tough. And, all the credit in the world to Golden State too. They are stepping up when they need to step up and that’s what a championship team does. Yeah. You talk about Andrew Wiggins’ performance yesterday. I mean, we saw the one poster, the dunk afterwards, kind of the tip-in dunk. He had 27 points. Second leading scorer for Golden State. 11 rebounds. He was a plus 22, which was the best on the entire Golden State Warriors team. So, he is really having himself a series. Alex, could he be the Western Conference Finals MVP? Probably not. It’s going to be hard for them to give it anybody but Steph or somebody else. I mean, Draymond Green has actually been pretty solid although his numbers haven’t been fantastic. But, it’s probably Steph Curry. It’s the boring choice, but he’s the best player on the best team and he hasn’t done anything to not deserve the award and I think honestly that’s kind of where it starts from. Everybody who votes… Again, this is a media award, right? They’re going to go, they’re going to look, they’re going to go, “All right. Well, it should be Steph Curry. Right? All right. So, let me write that down.” And then, they’re going to try to make cases for everybody else and you just… When you’re doing the math that way, you never catch up. And so, Chris thinks this series is over. You think this series ends tomorrow? Does the Warriors get the sweep? Probably not. I mean, I’m honestly excited for the referee assignments for tomorrow and learning what sort of short sample size, this ref has got this going on, because there’s going to be a ton of that stuff tonight and I love it. I love the tinfoil stuff. You know, [inaudible 00:05:09]. Every tweet that starts with the David Stern we’re still alive is one that I want to read. So, get out there tomorrow. I want to hear some of that stuff. Maybe Dallas gets one at home for the fans. They’ve got to start making baskets at some point and we’ve seen Golden State honestly on the road a couple times… In that last series against Memphis, I mean, Memphis came out and punched them in the mouth and they went, “You know what? We’ll just sit down. You guys have this one. We’ll go home and take care of it then.” Yeah. And, Golden State seems to struggle closing games out on the road. They’re much more comfortable doing that in their home arena. Also, with the ref conversation, a lot of talks with Scott Foster reffing tonight, that he’s looking to extend this series as much as possible, which I think is all just speculation and fan talk. But, that [inaudible 00:05:52] the Boston Celtics tonight. So, let’s jump into that game. We’ll take a look at our overall record to start things off. Chris, I believe you are still in the lead. Actually, I mean, I know you’re still in the lead. I shouldn’t even say I believe you are. But, Alex, you’re a close second. Josh and I rounding things out for the bottom two spots. All right. Celtics and Heat tonight in Boston. Game four. Miami took game three and leads the series two to one. Tonight, the Celtics are laying seven points and the total here is 206. Chris, tell me what you like in this game. Yeah. This is probably a Boston Celtics game where I think they’re going to look probably like the best version of themselves in a lot of ways tonight. I can’t take them at seven, though. That’s a big line against a team in the Miami Heat like we saw in game three. That’s what the Heat do. You know, they just come… Sometimes kind of sell out those games. They look ice cold and like, how is this team even in the playoffs? And then… And then, they come in in game three and that was about as physical of a basketball game as I’ve ever seen. You know, P.J. Tucker just makes a huge difference on that team too, the way he can play defense. But, all the players on the Heat really. And, you know, Boston’s just not used to that kind of physicality, I don’t think. Kind of throws them off. That being said, Boston didn’t shoot that bad. They were still, I believe, 48% from the floor, in the 30 percentile from beyond the arc, and that’s probably not going to get it done against the Heat. But, we know that Tyler Herro’s not going to be in tonight and a lot of these players are banged up. With the Scott Foster element as well, I think Boston’s going to have… I mean, one thing that’s been pretty consistent in the playoffs is that Boston can get to the foul line. They get some calls. So, that should amount in some points. I expect a really aggressive Boston team right from the jump. And, we saw Marcus Smart… You know, he comes into this game. Everybody knows what he can bring on the defensive side, but he’s been such a catalyst for their offense too. I mean, really… At times, really the only offensive answer for the Celtics there. In game three, Jaylen Brown did another good job too, but I expect a better game from Tatum and a lot of that supporting cast for Boston who… You know, they’re at home. They need this game, obviously. You do not want to go back to Miami down three to one. So, I think the Boston offense is going to attack. We’ve seen in game one especially, they can really push the pace when they do that. And, Miami seems to be happy to follow along with that too, especially if they’re not getting the same turnovers and blocks. So, just expect a more buttoned up version of the Celtics tonight. So, I’m going to have some plays on their offense. I like for them to… What is my bet? In the first… In the first half team total and then for the full game total. I think that’s going to push it all up. I expect some more points tonight. This total is still a little too low too. We’ve seen it go over this mark of 207-ish throughout the playoffs and it’s still kind of hanging around there. I think the books need to start to adjust because especially in games where Boston controls the tempo a little more, there’s probably going to be more points. The over is three and oh so far in this series, so it’s not exactly the defensive slugfest that we anticipated coming in with the very low scoring games. So, Chris, I like the over there. I’m going to take the Celtics first quarter minus two and a half. They’ve won every quarter except for two in this series, which is pretty, pretty impressive. They had a terrible start to game three, gave up 39 points in that first quarter to the Heat. That’s a terrible way to start the game and I can anticipate them coming out and being much more, as Chris just said, buttoned up to start things off. They also had 24 turnovers in game three. I mean, that was throughout the entire game, but just once again, we’re emphasizing them coming out and being a little bit more crisp, a little bit more ready right from the start. So, I’m going to lay the points in the first quarter. Alex, you have a bet on the Miami Heat tonight. I have and actually, [inaudible 00:09:50] just, you guys make good points about the pace of this series and I am surprised at how fast it is. You look at these games. 96, 97. You know, the pace has been in there in a playoffs where you’ve seen an average closer to 92, 93. And, overall, you know, what concerns me about Boston is this Miami defense has been spectacular. Spoelstra’s done a really nice job of making some adjustments and forcing Boston back into kind of the ugly isolation basketball they play when things get tightened up. As good as Tatum is and as good as Brown is, they’re comfortable to go back to that. Let’s jab step. Let’s try to find a midrange jumper or attack double teams over and over again. And, what sticks out to me is the only game Boston won is the game in which they turned the ball over less. Now I don’t think they’re going to lose the turnover battle 23 to eight like they did last game, but if Butler’s going to play the entire game, which seems to be the deal… He mentioned yesterday he was going to play, felt fine. It seems to be, again, more of a pain management issue and an inflammation thing, so I’m sure they’ll find a way to get things in order and get him out tonight. And, I agree. I think Boston probably wins the game. Obviously, everything points in that. The spread is where it is. But, it’s too big. I had this number close to five. This is out to seven. There was a strange move when Tyler Herro was announced out that… That seemed to be built into the line already. At no point was it indicated Herro was going to play. I guess it wasn’t, so Herro’s announced out, it jumps out all the way out to seven. Again, I have it closer to five. I think that at some point maybe the pace on this drops down a little bit. I worry that Udoka’s adjustment to looking at the turnovers is to slow this game down and if this game does slow down, it’s going to get really ugly and when you look at the totals, everything that’s happened the first three games points to overs. And, you’ve seen it. It’s been bet up. We’ve gone from 203 to 206 to 207 and a half. And, I mean, that last game, it took a college basketball style ending to get it over. I mean, so many fouls there at the end, which is just brutal for anybody who’s an under bettor. But, if they keep this pace up, you guys are in a great spot and I think that might happen tonight. Either way, this… It’s just too many points. I’ll take the Heat. I lean towards the Celtics tonight, but I agree with you that this is just too many points. Chris, where do you have this number? For the total or for the side? For the side. Oh yeah. The side, I have it right where Alex has it. Five, five and a half. So, you know, that’s what kind of scares me away from it too. It’s just too many points, but at the same time, I don’t want to take the Heat just because of all the things I’ve kind of circled about this game for Boston, so that just has me off of it. Yeah. This total is tough, though, because if you guys… I mean, probably most bettors, if you just go by pure numbers and what we know about these teams heading into the playoffs, you probably would have it where the books have it. But, everything is telling us that they’re going to score more points based on the amount of fouls, based on the pace we’ve seen, and probably based on some of the positive regression that we can expect from the Celtics. Like… Like Alex noted, they shot 50% from beyond the arc in game two. I don’t know if that’s going to happen in this game, but that’s kind of how the Celtics do business. They go up and down with their threes and if they have an off game, then they start to nail them in the game after that. So, I expect at least a better mark and that should push up the points even more. And, you guys have both kind of touched on this. The Celtics offense this last game kind of reverted back towards the Celtics offense in the early season when they weren’t that great and that was a lot of what Ime Udoka touched on after game three, is that the three stars in Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum kind of started playing individually and started to try and get themselves going versus getting the whole team offense going. So, maybe that was part of Jayson Tatum’s struggles in game three because he really did not play well at all. What do you think, Alex, that we can expect to see from him coming out after a terrible performance? He’s generally someone that responds well. I think we’ll see him. He likes to lead with defense. He doesn’t really get enough credit with that. I think that if Butler does play, he might pick him out and try to lock him down a little bit. And, he does know he needs to work on passing. He’s someone that understands his position kind of historically as this isolation scoring type player, and if you look at the history of those type players, there’s a moment in their career when they figure out when to get the ball moving, when to involve the other players, to help not only their ability to score later in the game by keeping the defense honest but also helping keeping your teammates more involved. So, I think that we’ll see him try to move the ball a little bit more and I’m, again, curious to see what Udoka’s adjustment is, whether it is to pick up the pace of the game so he can run a little bit more or try to do kind of a Spursian offense where we just see a lot more motion here and maybe a little bit longer holding the ball, but just more movement in general, and I think Tatum will respond well. He generally does, again. Are we concerned at all that Marcus Smart had a what looked like a terrible ankle sprain last game? Jayson Tatum had the shoulder. I mean, what’s going on with the trainers for the Boston Celtics? Something’s in the water there. But, are we at all concerned that those two might not play tonight? By all accounts, Tatum’s good. I don’t know if… Smart played last game and we’ll see how it goes. He’s starting to pick some stuff up. I mean, what do you think, Chris? I mean, with an ankle like that, it might be tough. It depends on how it reacts, I guess. Yeah. I’m sure it’s tough. [inaudible 00:14:52] He came right back into that game and nailed the three. You know, he’s kind of… I mean, Marcus Smart has been really… I don’t know if I’ve ever like even said this on the show, but I think one of the reasons why the Celtics have been so successful this year is if they have an on court leader, it feels like it’s Marcus Smart. He’s the most vocal one. He’s the point guard. And, he does a lot more than what he just does on defense. Right? I mean, he’s facilitating the basketball. He can shoot. He can drive. So, he’s a… His game is really rounded out. If he plays actually… This is leading into our Q and A, but I kind of [inaudible 00:15:23] haven’t looked at them. Maybe… Maybe, you know, prior to one of these shows I’ll actually do that for once. But, if they’re within [inaudible 00:15:35]. Alex, did Chris freeze for you? Looks like he’s breaking up a little bit, so… He just reset there. Looked like he was leading up to something about player props. You back with us, Chris? Oh, yeah. What’s the last thing you heard? Looks like you were building up to some sort of advice on player props, although you, quote, didn’t prepare? Yeah. In quotes. I didn’t prepare, again, for any kind of props. It’s just not [inaudible 00:16:03]. All right. Well, [inaudible 00:16:06] for Chris. I think he’s just joking with us. He’s just freezing himself because he didn’t prepare and he doesn’t want to have to go over them. That’s what it is. Yeah. [inaudible 00:16:15]
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[inaudible 00:16:15] It’s an immaculate joke because every time he builds up, he does. He goes right… Right to the freeze there.
Chris Farley:
Can you hear me now?
Kate Constable:
We got you now.
Chris Farley:
I mean, it’s 65 and sunny outside. I’m not sure what’s going on here. But, the weather couldn’t be more tame, so it can’t be that. Let’s see. I’m going to watch myself this time in case I freeze. I think Marcus Smart would be a great person to take PAR props on if he does play tonight because he has been everything for his team as a leader, offensive and defensive contributor. That was the point and I’ll shut up in case I freeze again.
Kate Constable:
I like that. I think he has been, outside of Jaylen Brown, one of the… Probably the second best player for the Celtics this series. I mean, Tatum’s been great, but you’re talking about everything that Marcus Smart does and I [inaudible 00:17:01] agree [inaudible 00:17:01].
Kate Constable:
All right. Questions. We don’t have any questions yet. Send those in. You can also send in questions or just comments, likes, subscribe to the BetUS TV account on Twitter at BetUS TV. So, as we wait for a couple more questions to come in, Alex, let’s hear what you think about any props tonight. That’s always the question we get.
Alex Christiansen:
Should be a good night for Kyle Lowry assists over. With Herro out, there’s going to be more Lowry minutes. He’s going to have a little more command of the ball tonight. I think I saw over five and a half in plus money a little bit earlier. I believe that’s what I ended up playing. But, I like Kyle Lowry assists overs. Might even play some alts. Going to poke around afterwards. Just, you got to think about who’s going to be in, who’s going to be out, and try to figure those minutes out like… So, for example, if it gets someone like Robert Williams is going to play, start to look maybe at Celtics rebounds unders. Take a couple guys who have picked up while he’s been out the last few games. Things like that.
Alex Christiansen:
But, yeah. I think with Herro definitely going to be out, Lowry assists over look nice tonight.
Kate Constable:
If Robert Williams is in tonight, what do you think we see from Bam Adebayo, because he had a monster game with Williams out in game three?
Alex Christiansen:
I would just wonder if this is the game where he just looks out of sorts. It’s been a while since he’s played. He’s going to have to get into what has been a very contentious series and get some form here and try to figure out how to play quickly. I wonder if Bam has a solid game tonight if Williams plays and then maybe things are a little bit better once Time Lord has his sea legs.
Kate Constable:
All right. Alex, Mark Holmes asks… I know you touched on this earlier, but remind us what you make the line tonight for this game.
Alex Christiansen:
Five. I have it right around five. I had Boston as a five point favorite, again, assuming Jimmy Butler is in, Marcus Smart’s in, Time Lord’s out, Herro’s out.
Kate Constable:
And, what do you make…? What do you count for Herro being out, because that line moved almost an entire point for Tyler Herro? Is he worth that whole point?
Alex Christiansen:
I wouldn’t move the spread. I’d have moved the total down. That’s really where I see most of his value. I think… You know, he makes Miami a little bit better, maybe a half a point to the spread, but not enough where I’d move that, whereas the total… Him being in not only defensively but offensively drives more pace, more points. He’s probably worth a couple points there.
Kate Constable:
Chris, do you agree with that?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, and I also think, speaking of props, maybe we look at Oladipo to come in and do a little bit more too. You know, just his marks in general. He’s been playing… He played some excellent defense in game three and stepping in in Jimmy Butler’s spot. So, you know, especially… You know, try to monitor Jimmy Butler’s minutes. Maybe we can get some intel on that to see how much usage Oladipo can get if Jimmy Butler plays a little less or if he’s a little banged up. But, even with Tyler Herro out, that might open up some more room for Oladipo as well.
Kate Constable:
Mm-hmm (affirmative)-
Alex Christiansen:
Look at Caleb Martin, too. Same scenario.
Kate Constable:
Hmm. All right. Thoughts on a teaser tonight? Celtics minus two in the over [inaudible 00:19:54]. I know we don’t like teasers. Tell us why.
Alex Christiansen:
You never tease basketball. Never, ever, ever, never. You just don’t do it. It’s… What you’re doing with a teaser is you’re doing a parlay with alternate spreads. So, alternate spreads always have higher juice and then when you put them together, you sort of double down on that juice and I don’t know if we have time to go through all the math. We don’t. Just think about it this way. You only get four points on a basketball teaser but if you’re teasing football, you get six. Football has lower spreads, lower scores. It just doesn’t make any sense. Please, please, please don’t tease basketball.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Colby, I’ll just say it a different way. I’ve never done the math, but every great handicapper that I know suggests to never, ever do teasers. So, that’s all I need to know because over time, the valuation just isn’t there.
Kate Constable:
Never do teasers for basketball or [inaudible 00:20:45] across the board.
Chris Farley:
For basketball. For basketball. And, I [inaudible 00:20:48].
Alex Christiansen:
Just basketball. There’s some narrow situations in football games if you have a football game with a low total. NFL. College football, there’s a lot more variance. But, NFL game, if you have a low total and you can, say, tease from like eight down to two, seven and a half down to one, or one up to seven and a half, two up to eight, those are called long teasers. Go ahead and Google that. But I forget who Dr. Wong is. He spent a lot of time doing the math. But, those are actually some of the best bets you can make, especially even if you’re late Sunday morning. Those are good.
Kate Constable:
All right. Good to know heading into NFL season. Just a couple months away. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today, though. We’re sticking in the NBA. Conference finals. Celtics team total over for Chris and the full game over. I’m playing the Celtics in the first quarter minus two and a half and Alex is taking the Heat plus seven.
Kate Constable:
Guys, how many games do you think this series goes? Chris?
Chris Farley:
I think it goes seven because I think that the Celtics win tonight and I almost don’t care who wins in game five because I think the other team will respond in a game six. This is… It’s just… You know, the way these teams are made, I think they match up very well. I don’t think… I don’t think any defender is scared of who’s on offense, so it’s just going to be a battle and where the Heat have a little bit more experience and veteran players, I think the Celtics have more talent. So, it just kind of all adds up to a nice, nice little series, takes it seven games. If it goes before seven games, I think that’s only because the Heat win tonight, but I just don’t see that happening.
Kate Constable:
Well, I hope it goes seven games because that means more time with you guys, more shows for us to bring you all the information here. And, you can always find more information on our Twitters. Chris is at Farley Bets. Alex is at underscore Noops. I am at Kate Constable. And, the BetUS handle is at Bet US TV. Remember to check out our sportsbook website. We’d also love it if you would click the alert button to subscribe and like our content on YouTube, and we will see you all back here tomorrow. Have a good night.
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