Kate Constable:
Good afternoon. Welcome in to the BetUS NBA Show. We have Chris Farley, Josh C., Kate Constable in here with you today to break down some NBA playoff games. Yesterday saw two games that probably couldn’t have been more opposite. Bucks-Celtics, that game went right down to the final seconds while the Warriors and Grizzlies, that game was pretty much over in the first quarter, first half. Josh, as a Celtics fan, which game do you want to break down first? You want to get the Celtics over with?
Josh C.:
Yeah. [inaudible 00:00:32] like ripping off a Bandaid, I guess. Let’s just get it over and done with as quickly as possible. Screw those guys, man. That was emotionally draining. It was like two minutes of just gut punch after gut punch after gut punch, and it got to the point where I… By the end of it, I think I was actually cheering for the Bucks. I was like, I just can’t take this anymore. Just go and win this. Hurry up and get it over and done with.
Josh C.:
And, I can’t even be mad at them. Milwaukee’s championship pedigree to hang around that game and to not throw in the towel on the road and to find a way to pull it out is just so impressive. Boston absolutely should be beating themselves up because they threw that game away in a multitude of ways as well. Offensively, the ball movement stopped. It’s almost like they froze a little bit. They then were happy to rely on their defense to get the job done but they made life difficult for themselves on that end with sloppy turnovers as well and allowing Milwaukee to play in transition, and obviously that led to the big three that sort of tied things up as well.
Josh C.:
The Bucks’ shooting as well in the fourth quarter was insane. Were they six for six in the fourth from three? I believe [inaudible 00:01:39].
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:01:39] Yeah.
Josh C.:
[inaudible 00:01:40] something insane like that. Like, it’s just, you know.
Kate Constable:
They had more threes in the fourth quarter than they did the entire first three quarters.
Josh C.:
Yeah. Yeah. They started off four for four and then I’m pretty sure they hit their final two. Giannis and Jrue were the only one that took two to finish. So, perfect from beyond the arc. I mean, you know, part of it as well is there’s only so much you can do when a team shoots that well and we’ve said it multiple times on this show where it seems like these NBA playoffs is just whichever team gets hot from deep wins and covers games and it’s… You know, if you can pick that team, then you’re on the right side basically every single night.
Josh C.:
So, I don’t know. Maybe that’s just me trying to like scrape the barrel here and find reason to not to be too upset and cling on to hope. But, at the same time, I just literally before the show went and bet Boston to win the series, so clearly I’m a sucker for pain and I haven’t endured enough of it because I just went and did that. But, hey. [inaudible 00:02:29]. Bring on game six, I guess. Right?
Kate Constable:
Yeah. They’re still alive. I mean, it’s not like that was a series clinching game, so Celtics still alive. Chris, my question in this game is, Bobby Portis makes a layup with 12 seconds left. Bucks go up by one. Marcus Smart gets his shot blocked by Jrue Holiday. Holiday throws the ball up and Smart, great play there. Celtics foul. Bucks go up by three with those free throws. Then, Marcus Smart gets the ball again, turns the ball over again. Why does Marcus Smart have the ball in the final two possessions? Where is Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. That’s a really good question. Did you listen to the Draymond Green podcast this morning? Because, I did.
Kate Constable:
I did not.
Chris Farley:
And, because I mean… Okay. Well, you took his take, which I think is a really good take, which is that it really doesn’t make sense for Marcus Smart to have the ball in that situation. Right? That has to be Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. I mean, it should be one or the other. And, Jrue Holiday… You know, I guess it was fitting that he made those plays against the Defensive Player of the Year. A lot of NBA players consider Jrue Holiday to be the best defender in the NBA and he certainly made some… I mean, proved it in the clutch there at the very end.
Chris Farley:
Also, to have the gusto to make that block, right? Because, it’s kind of like I could easily foul this guy.
Kate Constable:
Right.
Chris Farley:
But, to have a clean block and then save the ball on top of it was just an incredible play by him. But, I agree with you, Kate. It needs to be Tatum in those situations. But, I guess to Boston’s credit too, I mean, Tatum was… He had the ball in his hands a lot. You know? I mean, as he should have. But, just a lot of things bounced Milwaukee’s way, right? Giannis taking those threes. We’re all like, why is he still shooting threes? But, he gets his three in the fourth quarter. Right?
Kate Constable:
The only one that mattered. Yeah.
Chris Farley:
And, that’s… Yeah. And, you know, it still does create some space. You know, it creates some separation from him. Boston doesn’t really respect it and they probably shouldn’t, but when it mattered, he nailed the shot. You know? And, I mean, I feel like if the Celtics just would have cleaned up on the defensive rebounding end too… I mean, my goodness. Bobby Portis alone had seven offensive rebounds. The Bucks are just a really deep team and it feels like when you got Portis out there, Brook Lopez, Giannis, they’re so big, one of the only teams that can really compete physically with the Celtics and the job they did on the offensive glass was really brilliant. You know? But, that takes work ethic. That takes a tenacity and they have the personalities on that team to do that.
Chris Farley:
It’s kind of like the Celtics are playing the Celtics because usually the Celtics are used to doing that to teams and I certainly think that they missed Robert Williams III in this one too. Just would have been nice to have another big body down there. But, you know, I… Again, to Josh’s point, and he took the series price, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the Celtics still won this series. These are two very evenly matched teams. But, now we have… Khris Middleton apparently is going to return soon, so it’s about to get even more interesting. I… And, that’s what I’m hearing but I don’t necessarily believe it either. But, [inaudible 00:05:25].
Josh C.:
I don’t buy it. Right? I heard the same thing as you, but like, it was a grade two MCL sprain which is four to six weeks minimum. It’s only been three.
Chris Farley:
Right.
Josh C.:
We’ve seen players have this exact same injury and they’ve all sort of been closer to the six weeks timeframe as opposed to the four week. I think, twofold. One, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Two, if it does, I think they’d be crazy. Why would you risk him coming back now and making that injury significantly worse? Not just if they get through and him being out of the conference final, but I’m talking long term as well. Like, next season and beyond. So, that would make no sense to me whatsoever. But, I’m not a doctor. I’m just, you know… Just trying to get ahead of it, if you will.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. I mean, I know from personal experience. I’m the furthest thing from a pro athlete, but I did tear my ACL and my MCL three years ago and what happens eventually is I was still able to run on it eventually, you know, pre-surgery.
Josh C.:
Yeah.
Chris Farley:
Because, your legs can kind of adjust. But, he’s… If he plays, he’s not going to be able to cut the same way that he used to. It’s not a good idea. I agree with you, Josh.
Kate Constable:
Do you want a player out there who can go 50, 60%.
Josh C.:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
In the… In the playoff game when you’re looking to close out a series.
Chris Farley:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
No. You want guys fully healthy that are running 100%.
Josh C.:
Yeah. If… As a Celtics fan and now again a Celtics bettor, unfortunately, but like I think if Middleton comes and takes the floor, I’d probably be happy about that outcome. I think I’d be extremely comfortable with it.
Chris Farley:
Yeah.
Josh C.:
And, it’d probably be to the benefit of Boston at both ends of the floor. It gives them somewhere to attack very clearly and defensively, I think it gives them the opportunity to potentially sag off a player who isn’t 100% and make him cheat a little bit, if you will, with their held coverage.
Kate Constable:
Well, this series going back to Milwaukee. Bucks up three-two. Celtics looking to hang in there, make this one a seven game series and bring it back to Boston.
Kate Constable:
The Grizzlies and the Warriors. Warriors were looking to close out that series yesterday in Memphis. That… Yikes. Did not happen whatsoever. 134-95. A 39 point win by the Memphis Grizzlies and without Ja Morant in there. Pretty good stuff. Was this more of a collapse by the Warriors in yesterday’s game or do you give more credit to the way Memphis played both offensively and defensively? Josh?
Josh C.:
Good question. Somewhere I think it’s a bit of both. I think Memphis were excellent. I think they’ve been pretty good this entire series. You know, their undoing has largely come from inexperience in some key moments and that’s the reason the series score line is what it is. But, I think as well that they’ve shown themselves to potentially be at least as good as Golden State for 50% of the game time so far, it’s fair to say. You know, the Warriors haven’t necessarily wowed me at any point in this series and if anything, it’s kind of just reiterated that as long as Phoenix gets the job done, they’re winning the West. I don’t see how this Golden State team can compete with them. They’re still very sloppy and I think yesterday they came out sloppy and were just never really able to break that rhythm.
Josh C.:
And, you know, if you’re going to do that against a team like Memphis who can be relentless at both ends of the floor… I mean, they’re extremely active defensively which then leads to them being extremely efficient offensively. We’ve said all season where Memphis’ best offense comes playing off of live turnovers and live rebounds when they’re able to push in transition, and it doesn’t necessarily matter who they have available on the floor either or the personnel. That’s just… You know, they embrace that style, given the way the roster is constructed.
Josh C.:
So, I would probably give more credit to Memphis than I would to slag Golden State just because I think credit is due on that side of the fence. So, you know, Memphis, impressive. Golden State, extremely poor and sloppy. And, to see them quite literally throw in the towel, that was… I think that was not okay in a multitude of ways.
Kate Constable:
In the first half, too.
Josh C.:
Yeah. Yeah. That was not okay for a variety of reasons and I don’t think it’s quite as easy as just being like, “Well, we’ll just turn it on when we get back home.” You know, you can’t just flick a switch like that in the playoffs and I’d be very curious to see that first quarter outcome in game six, whether they really can just stem the tide or whether Memphis is able to sort of roll with that momentum a little bit, in which case Golden State are going to find it really hard to try and wrestle that back.
Kate Constable:
And, you just gave the Grizzlies so much confidence going into this next game six.
Josh C.:
Right.
Kate Constable:
After what they did. And, Steven Adams has played more since Ja Morant’s been out. I mean, he didn’t play hardly at all in the first two games. He’s been a difference maker in just the style of the play that the Grizzlies have played since Ja Morant’s going out and that seems to be a problem for the Grizzlies. So, I agree. It’s not just a simple let’s go back to San Francisco and we’ll close this one out at home. Chris, what did you think of this game? I saw you tweet that Warriors plus seven and a half yesterday in the first half was a steal. And, in any other night other than last night, that would have won you 99 out of 100 times. But, this was the one time it didn’t.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. They were down by like five heading to the end of the first quarter and I was like, “Oh, you’re giving me seven and a half on the Warriors first half. Let’s go. You know, I’d be happy to take that.” And then, I think the Warriors were losing by like 20 at the end of the half. So, I think even more than 20. I don’t know. But, yeah. I mean, at one point, this game was, I believe… You know, unless I was seeing things. I don’t think I was. I think it was 110 to 61 at one point. Like, a 50 point lead by the Grizzlies. You just don’t see that in the NBA playoffs, certainly not from a perennial playoff team like the Warriors.
Chris Farley:
But, again, listening to this Draymond Green podcast, I think he’s so entertaining. But, you know, he was saying, which is really interesting, that they were playing the type of defense that they played when Ja was in. You know, like as if they were still playing against Ja, which I didn’t understand. I mean, they… They know that Ja Morant’s not going to be in the game. Right? So, I mean, the Grizzlies are a different team without him. You can’t say that they’re a better team, of course. Ja Morant is such a great player. But, the ball touches everybody’s hands. I mean, it moves around really fluidly.
Chris Farley:
When they start the game like that, shooting threes, nailing threes like from Josh Jackson, that’s just a really tough team to stop. And, they objectively do play better defense without Ja. And, you know, we saw that. Once they went up, the Warriors could not come back. They could not get back into that game.
Chris Farley:
I’m going to just have a contrarian thought here. I don’t know if it’s going to be true or not. But, I think we could argue that that loss was the best thing that could happen to Golden State because if you do that to a team like the Phoenix Suns, you know, assuming that you make it to the Western Conference Finals, you might as well just roll out the red carpet for the Phoenix Suns to make the Finals. Like, you know, you can’t just give up games like that to a team as good as the Suns. So, hopefully the Warriors learned their lesson. You know, still up three-two. Now, they’re going home. They can close out the series.
Chris Farley:
But, this is several times now where we saw the Warriors just kind of hardly show up to full capacity and, you know, kind of a little hubris there because of all of the experience that they have, I guess. You’re not going to be able to do that against the Suns. You’re not going to be able to do that against anybody in the Eastern Conference. So, it could be a really good thing for them in the end. You know, kind of a learning lesson with all the leaders they have. But, we’ll see. That was some atrocious, atrocious basketball.
Kate Constable:
Yes.
Josh C.:
I’ve got a question for you. How do you quantify the performances of Golden State these last two games without Steve Kerr?
Chris Farley:
Oh, right. Yeah. That’s… Oh my God. That totally [inaudible 00:12:54]. That totally… I totally forgot that Steve Kerr hasn’t even been there.
Josh C.:
Mm-hmm (affirmative)-
Josh C.:
And, he might… He might miss game six is what I read last night, is that there’s a chance that he might not be back in time for game six either.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Well, I got to say. I mean, that’s such a tough thing to measure because the Warriors, you would think, have the on court leadership and experience to be able to adjust on their own. Right? I mean, they should have Steve Kerr’s mentality in their head by now. Apparently not. You know, I think Steve Kerr brings a level of basketball IQ and probably poise for this team that they might need more than they think. So, I mean, it should… It’s something that we should definitely try to quantify, right? When these kind of things happen, because that… So far, they look like a different team.
Chris Farley:
Now, I don’t know if I can blame it completely on that because, I mean, they… I don’t know. I don’t even know what to say about that performance. I mean, no one on that team got over 20 points. Like, it was rough. So, I don’t think we can blame that fully on Steve Kerr. But, I think there’s a difference for sure and it’s showed itself now two games in a row.
Kate Constable:
Do you guys think the Kings still want Mike Brown as their head coach after what’s happened these last couple games? That’s the real question.
Chris Farley:
[inaudible 00:14:09]
Josh C.:
Yeah. That’s… That’s quite a situation they’ve got themselves in. You know, some would say that if they did their homework properly, they would have realized that this potential already existed. So, you know, this is typical Kings, really, and just in line with that franchise, I feel.
Kate Constable:
Yes. All right. Let’s turn our attention to today’s games. We’ll start by taking a look at our record. Two wins for me yesterday. Finally. First wins of the week. So, I’m going to pump myself up a little there. But, nothing to be too excited about, honestly. So, we’ll start with Heat-Sixers today. Sixers laying two at home, game six, a close out game for the Heat. Total here is 206 and a half. Miami trying to close things out in Philly but they have yet to win a game on the road. Home teams in this series are five and oh, which means that the Heat are going to have their work cut out for them tonight.
Kate Constable:
Chris, how are you looking at this game?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Well, just another Jekyll and Hyde series. Right? We have two teams who, they’ve played really well at home, not so well on the road. Look like different versions of themselves. Now, the 76ers coming off that loss where they were coming off a game where they shot 48% from three point land and then… And then, in game five, right? That was game five, yeah? I’m losing track of all these games at this point. The previous game, they shot like 32%. Just, you know, all their marks really low, really down.
Chris Farley:
So, now Philly returns home. Obviously, that’s a better spot for them. But, there are some stats that back up that they’re going to perform better today. Josh, you mentioned the three point shooting in the playoffs, like sometimes it makes all the difference. The Miami Heat shooting 27% from beyond the arc on the road, 37% at home. The Sixers, 33% on the road, 44% at home from beyond the arc. Again, the 76ers, if they’re nailing shots from the outside, Joel Embiid is going to get his inside. He’s clearly annoyed by the mask, you know? He’s maybe not his best self, but he’s still very capable.
Chris Farley:
A lot of players on the 76ers had down games. They got obliterated by the Heat really from start to finish. I like the 76ers again at home in a better environment to start off hot. We’ve seen that in the playoffs too. Basically, the team that takes the first quarter and first half takes the game and I think a lot of that is because you have a lot of great defenses, right? So, then, they could start playing their half court defense. They can start their sets the way they want to start their sets, especially when they’re at home.
Chris Farley:
So, I expect Philly to start off fast, to start off more confidently, probably with much better shooting. I also expect this to be a pretty low scoring game. Obviously, very contentious as usual and is probably slow paced. But, I got to… I mean, it’s almost… It almost feels too easy. Do we just keep on taking home teams? No. But, there is some obvious disparities statistically for how these teams perform. And, a team like the 76ers who can always be so Jekyll and Hyde… Like, who are they really? You know, they’re so down, they’re so up. It’s just probably a spot for them to be more up.
Kate Constable:
All right. Well, I don’t mind the 76ers being up as long as they don’t score too much because I’m going to play the Sixers team total under 104 and a half. This has gone under in four of the five games. They’re averaging only 99 points per game. And, I think Embiid is a little bit more banged up than maybe the public even thinks he is. I mean, he got hit in the face pretty hard. Between the face injury, the thumb injury, I think he’s kind of done for this series. He’s only averaging 19 points in this series. Throughout the entire regular season, he was putting up 30, so you know he’s not bringing the same typical numbers that he usually does.
Kate Constable:
And then, you have to ask James Harden to step up in his place and provide a lot more scoring and I think we got the one big James Harden game this series in game four. He had 31. I just don’t see him doing that again based on what we’ve seen throughout this postseason. Butler, Jimmy Butler, has been playing Tyrese Maxey pretty tough on defense, making things difficult for him, so he is not necessarily getting the same quality looks that he has in previous series or during the regular season.
Kate Constable:
Overall, I think the Heat are just more physical. I think they’re going to wear down Philly tonight. I kind of disagree with you, Chris. I think this one might be Miami. They take it. They close out the series here tonight. But, whether or not they do, I agree with you that this will be a low scoring game. Yes? [inaudible 00:18:32].
Chris Farley:
No. I was going to say… I was going to say there’s a reason why I’m not taking the Sixers full game. I’m just saying.
Kate Constable:
Right. I mean, yeah. [inaudible 00:18:40]
Chris Farley:
So, I… So, I don’t… I don’t disagree with you.
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:18:42]
Chris Farley:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. But, my play in this one because I don’t want to take the full game either is the Sixers team total under. Josh, no official plays for you in this one, but do you have a lean? Either the side total? What are your thoughts?
Josh C.:
Yeah. No official play only because I have a pretty big series position on Miami minus one and a half games, so I essentially need them to win today and I like my position there. So, if I didn’t have that, I probably would be on the Heat to close it out on the road. I don’t think that there’s a world where they shoot as poorly as they did game three and game four. Basically, it’s as simple as that. I don’t think that the regression from last game will be so significant that the 76ers are then able to sort of close the gap in what was a pretty large disparity across the court in basically every single area measurable.
Josh C.:
So, for me, I don’t imagine Philadelphia… It’s kind of like we just spoke about with Golden State where they did throw that game away towards the end once they realized they had no chance. But, you can’t just flick a switch in the NBA playoffs. You know, you can’t just come home, flick a switch and think that, well, we’ll just go and win now instead and force a game seven and see what happens. You know, you’re also relying on Doc Rivers to motivate his team. You’re also relying on James Harden to show up in a closeout game in the playoffs. These are things that just don’t happen. They haven’t happened in the past. I don’t see why they happen today either against a Miami team who’s just so well organized.
Josh C.:
And, like I said, I still think that they do put a better shooting performance forward tonight and as long as they can avoid a Danny Green seven for seven three point shooting explosion, then they should be just fine. So, for me, I probably would play the Heat normally in this situation. I think they’re… The price is pretty enticing. The only reason I haven’t personally is just because of series position and I don’t need to triple dip essentially.
Kate Constable:
Ever since I called out Danny Green for shooting terrible in the first couple games of the series, he’s gone off.
Josh C.:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
So, I might just shut my mouth and not call anyone out specifically.
Josh C.:
Can you reverse it somehow? Like, I don’t know. Can you compliment him and then it goes the other way? Like, how does it work?
Kate Constable:
I mean, [inaudible 00:20:47]. Keep it up. Good job. Yeah. [inaudible 00:20:50]
Chris Farley:
One of our listeners… One of our listeners asked that question about Danny Green on Tuesday and then he went off. So, kudos to that listener. That was…
Kate Constable:
He did. And, she also asked if Jae Crowder was going to go over his prop and we said, “Eh, probably not.”
Chris Farley:
Correct.
Kate Constable:
And, he did that night, too. So, yeah. We’ve got some sharp listeners here.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, maybe [inaudible 00:21:09].
Josh C.:
[inaudible 00:21:10] single area [inaudible 00:21:12]. Shooting performance. The price is pretty enticing. [inaudible 00:21:15] Then, it goes the other way. Like, how does it work?
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:21:17] Keep it up. Good job.
Josh C.:
Yep.
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Josh C.:
Force a game seven and see what happens. You know, you’re also relying on Doc Rivers to motivate his team. You’re also relying on James Harden to show up in a closeout game in the playoffs. These are things that just don’t happen. They haven’t happened in the past. I don’t see why they happen today either against a Miami team who’s just so well organized. And, like I said, I still think that they do put a better shooting performance forward tonight and as long as they can avoid a Danny Green seven for seven three point shooting explosion, then they should be just fine. So, for me, I probably would play the Heat normally in this situation. I think they’re… The price is pretty enticing. The only reason I haven’t personally is just because of series position and I don’t need to triple dip, essentially.
Kate Constable:
Ever since I called out Danny Green for shooting terrible in the first couple games of the series, he’s gone off.
Josh C.:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
So, I might just shut my mouth and not call anyone out specifically.
Josh C.:
Can you reverse it somehow? Like, I don’t know. Can you can compliment him and then it goes the other way? Like, how does it work?
Kate Constable:
I mean, [inaudible 00:22:17]. Great. Keep it up. Good job.
Josh C.:
Yep.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. [inaudible 00:22:21]
Chris Farley:
Yeah. One of our listeners… One of our listeners asked that question about Danny Green on Tuesday and then he went off. So, kudos to that listener. That was…
Kate Constable:
She did. And, she also asked if Jae Crowder was going to go over his prop and we said, “Eh. Probably not.”
Josh C.:
Correct.
Kate Constable:
And, he did that night, too. So, yeah. We’ve got some sharp listeners here.
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Maybe she should be on the show, not us. Whoa.
Kate Constable:
She can… She can take my spot for a couple days. All right. Chris is playing Sixers first quarter minus one. I’m going to take the Sixers team total under 104 and a half.
Kate Constable:
The Suns-Mavs. This is another series where the home team has been dominant. But, the Suns are on the road tonight in Dallas. They’re still the favorite here, looking to close things out, up three games to two on the Mavs tonight. Josh, start with you in this one. Can the…? Can the Mavs force a game seven?
Josh C.:
Same as always. They’re going to shoot 50% from deep again? Because, then they will. But, if they don’t, then the answer is no. So, figure that one out. And again, another situation where the only reason I’m not involved with the Suns is I just have the minus one and a half series position on Phoenix again for a bigger sum there, so I don’t need to get involved in that line. I’ll just ride that ticket out and, you know, the market pretty aggressive here towards Phoenix. We’ve seen a sort of standard six to seven point flip for home court in the playoffs this time around. Not quite the case with the Suns at minus two.
Josh C.:
So, clearly strong market support that Phoenix gets it done. They’ve been terrific in closeout games under Monty Williams and with CP Three. I don’t think that changes. You know, I think that they sort of have made the right adjustments defensively to force Dallas, I think, into taking some pretty tough threes and with personnel who potentially don’t have it in them to stay hot in the same way that Dorian Finney-Smith was in game four in particular. You know, [inaudible 00:24:10] essentially I think they’re just saying that if he’s going to be the guy that beats us, so be it. But, you know, we’re going to force those sort of role players to be the ones to do so and to find rhythm from deep.
Josh C.:
So, ultimately Phoenix offensively should be able to get theirs as they have for the majority of this season. As long as the shots are falling, I think they’re going to be pretty aggressive in headhunting the right mismatches down the floor. I kind like a Suns team total over as well. You look traditionally at their closeout games all of last season, this season. Their offense really is aggressive throughout the entirety of those games and they really sort of push home the point and carry it through for the full 48 minutes. So, that would be my top look I think if I were to get involved here, was the Suns team total. No problem laying the points either with the Suns.
Josh C.:
Again, the only reason nothing is official is just based on my series positions.
Kate Constable:
I lean towards the Suns as well, but as a Suns fan, I’m having a hard time separating my bias for the Suns and what I actually think. So, I’m just going to stay off of this game altogether. But, I do think your point, Josh, that Monty Williams has made some nice adjustments defensively. I mean, Cam Payne didn’t play in that last game. JaVale McGee hardly played at all. Those are two players that were liabilities on the floor defensively for the Mavericks. And, Cam Johnson stepped up defensively a little bit more. Played better defense on Luka. That was a target for Luka in the first three games of the series and I thought he did a nice job in game four.
Kate Constable:
So, I lean the Suns. I think they close it out here again tonight. But, no official plays for me because I’m just going to sit back and try and enjoy this one. Chris, you were on the Mavs quite a bit. You think the Mavs have it in them to force a game seven?
Chris Farley:
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a game seven. You know, again, some of the same things that we saw in previous series that we talked about, just the home teams playing better and some of those players on Dallas have played better at home all year. Jalen Brunson is one of them. Dorian Finney-Smith is one of them. You know, Finney-Smith had another bad game on the road against Phoenix, just wasn’t really a factor, you know? So, maybe you find some confidence tonight.
Chris Farley:
It’s just one of those things where you feel like you have a great handle on the game and then you’ll turn the TV on, you turn the volume up, you hear the home crowd of the team who’s at home and you’re like, “Oh, man. You know, this might be a different result than what I thought.” Because, once you gain that energy and they start to gain a rhythm, right? That just really helps a home team and a playoff crowd is like no other.
Kate Constable:
Mm-hmm (affirmative)-
Chris Farley:
So, again, if you like the Mavericks, I think you take them early here. You know, my mind says to bet on the Suns full game. This is a very short line. I mean, you know, base… It’s not a pick em, but, you know… And, we’ve seen these games end really close. But, minus two is a very forgiving line for the number one team in the NBA all year and I guess if I have a play on the total, I would lean towards the under. You know, it seems like the Phoenix Suns now… Listen, we’re five games in. A coach as good as Monty Williams… They’ve figured something out in the last game, Dallas only scoring 80 total points. That was pretty bad for them. And then, Dallas does play more their brand of basketball at home, so they should be able to slow down the game a little more.
Chris Farley:
So, I like the under a little bit. I like the Suns a little bit to win it. But, you know, I don’t know. I mean, this is just one of those games where again, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was seven game series and then Phoenix like blows out Dallas when they go back home again. Right? So, a lot of these series are just really tough. A lot of Jekyll and Hyde stuff going on here where which team is going to show up, which version of these players are going to show up.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. And, the Suns did really struggle in games three and four on the road. So, it’s not like it’s just a give me that they close this one out. I mean, the Mavericks played great at home and the Suns didn’t. So, very easily could go seven. No plays for all three of us in this game. We’re just going to sit back and hope that the Suns win so Josh cashes his series ticket. Go with that.
Kate Constable:
Questions for today. Josh, what do we like here tonight? Player props. What do we got?
Josh C.:
I love this. This has become a thing now. Look, Miami-Philadelphia… It’s an elimination game. James Harden is involved. So, you take every unders in James Harden’s categories that you possibly can. Take him under his points. Take him under his three pointers made. Take him under his points-assists, points-rebounds-assists. Why not just do them all? Single all of them. But, that’s absolutely going to be the top look. I will always forever fade James Harden in playoff elimination games because unfortunately until he shows otherwise, there is no reason to believe that he can buck the trend, if you will. So, that for me, top look.
Josh C.:
If you want Phoenix and Dallas, I would go with Chris’ man Devin Booker to again just go get the job done on the road, especially with his points. Maybe not so much points-rebounds-assists, but I think his points total on the road in a game like this… This is the sort of environment where he can… We saw it in the NBA Finals. He dropped 40 a couple of times in situations similar to this as well. This is lining up to be one of those nights where he can just carry it over and Dallas is probably going to have to just try and contain everyone else.
Chris Farley:
We almost had a show where we didn’t say his name. [inaudible 00:29:09]
Josh C.:
[inaudible 00:29:09] I had to. As soon as I saw props, I was like, this is my chance to bring back Devin Booker. I missed it earlier in my previous field, so thank you to Aaron for giving me the opportunity to double back on [inaudible 00:29:21].
Chris Farley:
I would say two players that I would look at are… You know, the Mavericks need at least three players to play really well. Right? They need Luka obviously to play well, but they need two other guys to play really well to even have a shot against the Suns. And, I think it’s usually Brunson or Finney-Smith. You know, Spencer Dinwiddie… We’re not seeing that as much in the playoffs from him, so I would fade him. But, there’s probably a good chance that either Finney-Smith or Jalen Brunson will have a really good game. You know, check out their point props or their three point props, you know?
Chris Farley:
And, I guess if you get plus money for one of them, maybe you can bet on both. Maybe you get both. You should at least get one because one will step up and play a little better at home.
Josh C.:
I’d even go… Go the route that you even said. I like that you’re just fading Spencer Dinwiddie. He’s been a non-factor for basically the entirety of the playoffs.
Chris Farley:
Yeah.
Josh C.:
Which is really disappointing for Dallas because having acquired him, he certainly changed the landscape I think for them and their potential. But, yeah. The entire playoff series, including the Utah series, he was just basically standing around doing nothing and not much of a contributor, and that hasn’t changed in this series either aside from like one game. So, that’s another good one to look at. Fade Spencer Dinwiddie and his points.
Kate Constable:
I might look at Chris Paul points overs tonight. In that game four, didn’t play much with all those fouls. This last game, he didn’t necessarily need to score a whole lot. He was doing more facilitating. But, I think in this game, he’s going to need to score in order to close this one out. So, his points right now are only at 15 and a half. I think that’s an easy over for CP Three in a big closeout game.
Kate Constable:
All right. Let’s take a look at our best NBA bets for tonight. Only two on the board for us today, both in the Sixers-Heat game. Chris is taking the first quarter minus one. I’m going to play the Sixers team total under 104 and a half.
Kate Constable:
All right, gentlemen. That’s all we got for us today. Best of luck, Josh, with your series prices. Chris, best of luck with your play tonight. Make sure you hit that alert button, subscribe, give us a like, head over to Twitter. Give us all a follow. We would love that. And, we will see you all back here tomorrow. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Have a good night.
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