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Best NBA Sports Betting Odds for Dec. 1

Kate Constable:

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today on the BetUS NBA show. Alongside our expert NBA handicappers, Alex Christenson and Josh C., I’m Kate Constable. After a 9-0 day on Monday, we came back down to earth a little bit yesterday, went 3-4 overall. Josh, you got a couple wins though. Let’s focus on those. You had the Nets team total over 111 and a half. They won by one point. So I didn’t cover my -7 and a half spread. That was way off. But the Nets team total was 112. So you covered by half a point, that one had to feel good.

Josh C.:

It did feel good. It definitely felt good. And it, obviously came just like we all envisioned with some James Johnson free throws in the clutch. So that was comfortable viewing, no doubt. But yeah, the Kings collapse was fun. Given that we grabbed them at a plus four and never stood a chance down the stretch. So typical NBA odds really.

Kate Constable:

Yes, very much so. And I hate to put Chris on blast without him being here to defend himself. He went 0-2, one of the [inaudible 00:01:13]. The Warriors money line, the game of the year so far, Warriors and Suns, Suns ended up winning that one by eight, extending their winning streak to 17. Alex, did you get a chance to catch any of that game?

Alex Christenson:

I got a chance this morning, actually, to get up and watch some of that. I think that what we saw is likely what’s going to be the Western Conference finals. I’m excited to see it again. The matchups are really tremendous. These are two really fun teams with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, DeAndre [inaudible 00:01:41] and you’ve got Steph Curry, you’ve got all the other players. I’m curious, Klay being back. But yeah, I don’t mind Chris going 0-2. I’m trying to catch him in our picks [inaudible 00:01:51]. You’ll see in a second that I’m getting a little bit closer. So a little 0-2 for Chris doesn’t hurt.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, Chris has been doing just fine all season so he can handle an 0-2 night. He’s still beating us all. But we will take a look at our overall record. As a team though, still doing great. I am finally back up to .500. Alex is sitting at 30 and 20. Alex, you’re right in there with him. Chris 35 and 20, Josh 21 and [crosstalk 00:02:18] three. I have four, a grand total of 113 and 90. Well, to kick things off today, talking about an exciting matchup, Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. A little sarcastic there with the exciting, but it will be a good one. We have plenty of bets on this one today between the three of us. The Wizards are four and a half point favorite at home. Total is sitting at 216. Josh, you hit the Nets team total over yesterday. Today, you’re going with the Wizards team total under 109 and a half. Why do you like that?

Josh C.:

The Wizards, yeah, really seem to have hit a brick wall at the moment. Things certainly coming to a halt for them. Timberwolves, meanwhile, I mean, they’re starting to find some sort of consistency about their play at the moment. Anthony Edwards being questionable here isn’t particularly ideal, but even if he’s out, I still think four and a half is just too many points for the Wizards to be laying, given how they’re playing right now. Their offense, like I said, is to say it’s stagnant, I think is a little bit of an understatement. It’s rough out there. It’s very slow. They don’t like to push in transition. They love to stick to half court sets. And that was working fine in the early parts of the season, but unfortunately at the moment, those offensive half court sets are really coming undone and they’re settling for some pretty subpar shots, I think.

Josh C.:

A lot of mid-range shooting, a lot of contested shots as well. It’s difficult to see them just snapping out of that. I think it’s going to be a work in progress for them to get out of that funk. Minnesota, surprisingly reliable defensively of late. Didn’t think I’d say that sentence any time this season. But here we are. I mean, they’re starting to find a little bit of an identity about their play, particularly at that end of the floor. Their opponent shot quality metrics are quite high. So they do a good job at the moment, at least of making sure the teams are settling for uncomfortable looks and low percentage shots. And if they do that again today, I think that they’re absolutely live to win out right. And if Anthony Edwards does in fact play, again, he is listed questionable, that four and a half is way too high and it should be much closer to a one, one and a half by my numbers.

Josh C.:

So yeah, for me, I love the Timberwolves, I think in this spot. I think the Wizards offense again, is going to continue to really struggle. So I do like the unders. I just prefer the Wizards team total unders just because because I think the Timberwolves might be able to score particularly in transition. They lead the league in steals. The Wizards don’t do a great job of looking after the ball. So there’s ways I think for Minnesota to score a little bit and make that total a little uncomfortable, I think for me, assuming that the Wizards at least do something offensively in this game. So for me, I do think that Washington’s team total under is probably the better play. My model has them coming out at about 105 and a half points there. And like I said, the Timberwolves plus four and a half, especially if Anthony Edwards is in, is far too many points here and there’s certainly live to win this one outright.

Kate Constable:

I’m going to join you on the plus four and a half on the Wolves. But I’m also going to take the under for the game total at 216. I hear what you’re saying with the Timberwolves being able to put up a bunch of points fast in transition, like to get out and run. But the Wizards are surprisingly second in the league in fast break points, opponents fast break points per game. So I’m banking on them able to hold the Wolves a little bit in that sense. In the half court, the Wolves are only putting up 85 points per 100 possessions. So if they can slow them down in transition and get them to play more in a half court set, I like this one to stay under the total of 216. Alex, you are also on the Wolves at plus four and a half. Let’s hear your reasoning behind this.

Alex Christenson:

It’s a lot of what Josh just talked about. I have this game with Anthony Edwards in a pick ’em. I think Minnesota on a neutral court would be about a point or so better than Washington. Washington’s at home, so they get a little bit of credit there. But [inaudible 00:06:21] it’s still only maybe a one and half point difference. So apologies folks, my camera’s having some issues. Hopefully, you can still hear me. But without Edwards again, still a one point game. So I mean four and a half is clearly too much for a Minnesota team that has really played much better than I expected them to. So happy to grab the points. And if Edwards is in, definitely sprinkle the money line.

Kate Constable:

You disappeared there for a second. I thought you were, threw your invisibility cloak on from Harry Potter. It is just your background and you were completely out of there. That was a very impressive, Alex. All right, well, we all are on the same page in this game it sounds like. All taking the Wolves plus four and a half. Josh is going to go with the Wizards team total under and I’m also going to go with the game total under. Philadelphia 76ers are in Boston tonight to take on the Celtics. Celtics are a three point favorite. The total here is sitting at 206 and a half. Sixers, they struggled for a while. That’s, I mean, very clear there with Joel Embiid being out. Tobias Harris was out for a while through health and safety protocols. So after a very hot start to the season, they cooled off quite a bit. But they’re finally back and finally healthy.

Kate Constable:

And the Celtics might be without Jaylen Brown tonight, he’s questionable with load management. He might be taking a rest here. And they also just got a couple players back. Robert Williams and Al Horford are returning. So this one is going to be, I think one of the better games of this evening, probably one of the more competitive ones. Alex, you like the Sixers plus three in this one. What value do you see here?

Alex Christenson:

If you look at this again, assuming Jaylen Brown plays, I have the Celtics as only a one point favorite here. I think the Sixers aren’t getting nearly enough credit for having Joel Embiid back. He’s arguably the most impactful player night to night from a spread perspective for any team. I think what we’re going to see here is a really slow, ugly game. I know both Josh and I bet the under earlier today before the number dropped about four or five points to about where I have it. But I just think this is a nice spot for the Sixers team. And especially if Jaylen Brown is out, if Brown’s out, then I have the Sixers actually a small favorite in this spot here. So happy to grab the three points. And again, if Brown’s out, I’ll sprinkle the money line.

Kate Constable:

I like the Sixers in this spot too. I think Joel Embiid is just going to dominate down low. Boston is 25th in opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim, so he can have a field day. Alex, you mentioned that he is one of the most impactful players against the spread. So with that in mind, I like the Sixers plus three here. Josh, the Sixers barely escaped a win over Orlando on Monday when they were 15 point favorites. And then they lost to the Wolves in overtime, the game before that. Is this somewhat of a buy low spot for the Sixers tonight?

Josh C.:

Yeah, it might well be. I’m close to joining you on Philly to be perfectly blunt. I don’t know how to get to this number. I can’t get to this number simply. I’m also pretty much at Boston minus one with Jaylen Brown in. I do expect him to play. But at the same time, if he plays, this is one of I think two times where Boston have everyone available and that I think has to count for something for them. It’s hard to really get a proper, I think, accurate number on Boston, fully healthy given we literally don’t have much of a sample size to work off. I mean, they looked great when they were together, but you don’t really want to just be relying on that one showing. So I want to see Boston string together some games when everyone is fully healthy so that we can get a proper understanding of exactly what this team is.

Josh C.:

We know that defensively, they have the capabilities to be elite. They’re already in the upper echelon of that conversation, even with people in and out of the rotation. It’s that offensive side of the basketball that things seem to come undone for them a little bit. And that opening total was certainly just too high. I think it’s fair to say, like Alex said, we did get in on that at about 211 and a half. My number comes out at about 205. So I’m pretty close to where the market is now on that one. I think Philly is absolutely the play here though. On a neutral court, I probably would have Philadelphia about minus one with both teams at full strength. So yeah, for me, it is at the moment a pass, but I am leaning Philadelphia and I might still get there by the time tip off gets around.

Kate Constable:

The Celtics have a tough road ahead of them. Obviously, they have the Sixers tonight and then they head out to the West Coast for a five game road trip where they start in Utah on Friday. They go to Portland, play the Lakers, Clippers in LA, and then finish off with the Suns. So they’ll definitely have their work cut out for them. And we’ll see what kind of team they are with everyone hopefully fully healthy playing against really solid teams on this West Coast. Well, a [inaudible 00:11:05] Lakers, we don’t like them. But Jazz and Suns, great teams. Okay. I am taking the Sixers plus three. And so is Alex on this one.

Kate Constable:

Moving on to the Dallas Mavericks taking on the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans tonight. Mavs are a three and a half point favorite on the road. This total’s at 216 and a half. Mavs have cooled off quite a bit lately. They’ve lost five of their last six. Lost by 18 to the Cavs on Monday. The Pelicans surprisingly have won three of their last four. They’re coming off of a win over the Clippers on Monday. So these two teams have swapped storylines within the last five or six games a bit. Josh playing another under here today. A lot of unders throughout this slate we have today between all of us. Under 216 and a half for you here. Why do you think this is going to be a lower scoring game?

Josh C.:

Yeah, another game where I think basically it’s going to be played almost entirely in half court sets. I don’t think either side has any interest in really pushing in transition at the moment. Pelicans certainly seem to find, or certainly seem to be finding their feet rather at the moment under their new head coach, which is good to see for them as well. And I think we expected some sort of improvement, I think at that end, given that, like we’ve mentioned previously on other shows, short turnaround with the new coach, it’s always difficult. So not surprising to see them starting to figure things out and create an identity about their play at the moment. That said, you look at both these teams over the past fortnight and both are bottom tier in terms of pace. And I don’t see, like I said, I don’t see either one wanting to necessarily change that.

Josh C.:

I think they’re both very deliberate in their offensive approach to how they’re going to tackle things going forward. Kristaps Porzingis being questionable, leaning towards probable now. I think he does play. I don’t think it necessarily has a big impact on how I feel about the total, or how it’s going to be played out either though. So for me, yeah, I think it’s too many points. I come out closer to about 211, 210, I believe on the model that I run. So yeah, I love the unders here. And I just think that both defenses should be able to do enough to at least make life uncomfortable for the opposing offenses.

Kate Constable:

Alex, Dallas has a tendency to play down to their competition. The Mavs are 2-6 against the spread against teams with a losing record. This line’s only three and a half in favor of the Mavs tonight. Is this following that trend a little bit of maybe this line being lower because of how the Mavs perform against lesser teams?

Alex Christenson:

I think it’s a combination of that. You mentioned about Kristaps Porzingis. He’s now probable. And at the same time, the New Orleans Pelicans have been getting a longer [inaudible 00:13:52] market. With Brandon Ingram back, they’ve been an interesting defense team and been able to be good enough just on offense. So I think that combined with the low total and everything leads to what looks like a little bit of lower spread than maybe what you would’ve expected.

Kate Constable:

Jonas Valanciunas has also been fantastic recently for the Pelicans, had 42 the other night, I believe it was. Shot lights out from beyond the arc. So Josh, for your case, I hope he doesn’t do the same tonight. But he has been playing very well as of late. So Josh is on the under in this one, 216 and a half.

Kate Constable:

The Rockets and Thunder, another very exciting matchup we get to see tonight. These two teams, second half of a home and home set. They played on Monday and the Rockets won this one, 102-89. The Thunder in that one shot just 19% from three-point land. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the only OKC starter in double figures with 22. But the Thunder are the favorite in this one, favored by three points at home, total sitting at 215 and a half. And Josh, not Josh, Alex, we once again have an under here. I’m surprised you’re not playing either of these teams’ team total on this, [crosstalk 00:15:12] going to play the game under. What’s with that? Why no team total?

Alex Christenson:

I guess I really screwed my branding. My PR guy is probably going to really give me hell for that. But go ahead, play both team total unders, play the full game under, I don’t know. Just got bet up. I don’t know. We just watched this game finish under 200 the other day. Yes, there’s some positive regression for shooting, but it looks like a bunch of guys are going to be out for Oklahoma City. There is just no reason for me at all to see how this game. I mean, this could go three overtimes and still go under this number. So yeah, go for it. All the unders.

Kate Constable:

Josh, the Rockets are 0-11 on the road. They beat the Thunder last time pretty handedly. Yes, they didn’t shoot very well, but can they get their first win on the road tonight? Is that a possibility? I know that’s a [crosstalk 00:16:06] question to ask you because like yes they could, but they’re the Rockets. They couldn’t and OKC is terrible, who knows what’s going to happen. [crosstalk 00:16:14]

Josh C.:

Exactly, right? I think that’s pretty much this game in a capsule there. They beat OKC pretty handedly earlier in the season as well. And then went on to become one of the worst teams in the NBA by a long shot after that. So beating OKC at home is not new to them. Doing anything on the road, however, is a completely different story altogether. Do they even want to win? I don’t know. OKC, obviously, doesn’t want to win. We’ve got what, Josh Giddey is now out. I think Darius Bazley’s gone into being questionable, Mike Muscala’s out for whatever that’s worth. But this game is an absolute mess. And the unders is the absolute only way you can play it. And another one where I might end up playing it by the time tip off comes around, I haven’t done it yet. But like Alex said, the number going up is just strange. So let’s see what we can get and jump in from there, I think.

Josh C.:

But yeah, two teams who, I don’t think there’s any positive you could say about either of them right now. And for that reason alone, I think it’s a pretty safe reason to stay away from trying to bet the spread any which way you want.

Kate Constable:

I thought about betting the Rockets here, thinking, yeah, they’re going to get their first win. They played great that last time out. Well, great to the Rockets standards. Daniel Theis is out of the rotation. And since then, Houston’s looked a little bit better defensively. But you’re right. There’s no safe bet on the spread either way, whatever way you phrase this. So the under is the total, or the total is the play here today. And Alex has taken it at under 215 and a half. Oklahoma City also ranks last in both offensive rating and points per game. So that’s a good sign for you tonight, Alex, taking the under.

Kate Constable:

All right, one more under, we’re going to take tonight is in the Kings and Clippers game. Clippers are five and a half point favorite. This number was at eight in favor of the Clippers. But Paul George is going to rest tonight. The Clippers play the Lakers on Friday. So he’s probably getting ready for the LA showdown in that game. So this one has moved to five and a half. Total’s 215. Alex, are you still comfortable playing the 215 without Paul George?

Alex Christenson:

I absolutely am. At this point, my only concern would be Harrison Barnes because Sacramento played last night. We don’t have an official injury report for them yet. If Barnes is in, maybe I’m a little nervous. But either way, the way I look at the way this game is going to be played from a pace perspective, especially with Paul George out, maybe even a better angle here is just take a Clippers’ team total under. But I think this is going to be a slow game. I think it’s going to be very methodical. And again, even if Harrison Barnes is in, the Clippers still have the defensive pieces to slow down a Kings’ team that I think is being rated based on Alvin Gentry’s career and not what we’ve seen for these last couple games. The pace really hasn’t picked up, the offensive efficiency hasn’t picked up, but the total’s continue to rise. So I wonder.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, the pace is still where it’s been. And their efficiency, I mean they’re 25th in three-point percentage. They’re also 29th in free-throw percentage in their last five games. And they get to the free-throw line more than any other team in the NBA. So you’d think Alvin Gentry would have them in the gym shooting free throws just nonstop because maybe they’d win a couple games if they could hit more than 29th best free-throw percentage in the league. Josh, the Kings have given up 117 points or more in four straight games. So is Alex on the right side here taking the under 215? That means the Clippers can’t score over 100 points.

Josh C.:

I mean, do you trust the Clippers’ offense without Paul George to be scoring over? I mean, I agree with Alex, I think maybe the Clipper’s team total might be in play here just because I don’t trust that team to be able to create a whole lot. But then obviously, that’s relying on the Kings’ defense a little bit too much as well. So the full game under probably the safest side there. With Paul George in, I did lean towards the Clippers, especially when it was six and a half, seven and a half. And obviously, now makes sense why it started drifting that way, given that he won’t be available. So yeah, from the spread perspective, it’s an easy pass. From a total, it’s definitely an unders or pass. I think just, yeah, for pretty much the reasons that both of you guys have mentioned, the Kings’ offense just not reliable enough.

Josh C.:

I think the Clippers defensively still have the pieces to be efficient at that end of the court. Whereas offensively, I mean, you’re basically relying on a Reggie Jackson going full-fledged Reggie Jackson here in order to give them a shot at scoring a whole bunch of points. And that’s not a position I think any team wants to be in, in the NBA. So yeah, the unders makes perfect sense to me here. I think that’s definitely the right side. And from a line perspective, it’s just an easy pass here. You might want to play Sacramento, especially if Harrison Barnes is in, but right now I want nothing to do with it.

Kate Constable:

It’s definitely an unders play all around the NBA today for the three of us. So Alex, taking the under once again here, under 215 in this game. Couple questions we had sent in. What do you guys think of the OKC team total under 108 and a half? Alex, give us your thoughts on this. He likes it. Have you ever seen a team total you don’t like, Alex?

Alex Christenson:

Well, from time to time. I mean, there is a whole bunch of team totals I didn’t bet tonight. But as I’ve said once, and I’ll say it again, Thunder unders, Rockets unders, Pistons unders. If you just want to make some bets, don’t really think too hard and do well this season. I think all three of those, you’ll be just fine.

Kate Constable:

Josh, where do we go with the Magic team total of 105 and a half? They’re without a slew of players now. Jalen Suggs the most recently the one injured. He’ll be sitting out tonight. Any thoughts there?

Josh C.:

Ah, I don’t love the under as much as I would love playing some of these other unders to be perfectly honest. They do get Cole Anthony back. I think that’s actually a really big plus for them, especially given how he was playing. This is a team that’s basically just going to let it fly from deep. And if they shoot close to their average, that might just be enough to tick over, I think. And Denver defensively based on how they’re set up, they try to prevent people from getting into the paint and force you outside. And they don’t have that same level of length anymore to disrupt people, just given the injuries that they do have at the moment. So Orlando might be able to generate some good looks from deep. And like I said, as long as they’re shooting there or thereabouts to their average, they’re going to go really close to that number and it’s going to get too uncomfortable.

Josh C.:

So yeah, for me, I would stay away from that and I would go find some of these other unders. Houston, OKC, Dallas, New Orleans, Washington, plenty of other ones on the board today.

Kate Constable:

Plenty of other ones. Yes. We’ve given out quite a few of those today. So yeah. Great advice, Josh. Go look for another one of our unders. That is not all we have today. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today. I’m getting ahead of myself. Quite a few unders as we’ve mentioned, Rockets-Thunder, Kings-Clippers, Mavs-Pelicans, Wolves-Wizards. And then the team total for the Wizards and across the board, we all like the Wolves plus four and a half. So hopefully that one can cash for us, guys. Otherwise, we’re all out of luck in that one. Sometimes it’s maybe not the best thing for all of us to be in on one. One game might hurt our overall-

Alex Christenson:

Hey, be optimistic here. Come on now. Chris isn’t here. We’re all going to win. We don’t need him.

Kate Constable:

That’s right. All right. Well, that is all we have for you all today. Thank you so much for joining us and we will see you back here once again tomorrow. Don’t forget to check out our BetUS TV.

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