Alex:
Yeah, I think it’s part of maybe an unintended consequence of starting the season earlier, the beginning of the NBA season. Not that it doesn’t matter, but there’s not getting a full effort from some of these guys. There’s a lot of distraction. We’ve kind of stretched that period out. So let’s see how things tighten up a little bit. Again, just six weeks away from the All-star break and the trade deadline, things starting to heat up.
Let’s take a quick look at our record as a group. We sit a little below 500 here. Again a ton of NBA picks and we’ve got a lot of ground to go, close to our few guys who are above 500. Josh doing pretty well. Jay had a rough Friday, he’ll be back shortly and we continue to do better and better. Let’s take a look at our first game. And this is kind of fun guys because this game will be starting basically as we finish up the show today. In about 25 minutes, the Phoenix Suns play the New York Knickerbockers at Madison Square Garden. The next short favorites here, minus one and a half. This is actually on the move, Jalen Brunson was announced available. This is ticked out to minus two and a half the totals at two 18. I don’t believe that’s moved, ticked up a little bit now looking at a two 19 seems like a great spot for the Knicks. What do you think Skee?
Skee:
Yeah, I definitely love having Jalen Brunson available. I notice a couple guys who are on the injury report for Phoenix, but I think they do have Shamet and they do have Cameron Payne tonight still will be without Devin Booker. And really this play was kind of simple for me. It’s just who’s been playing better lately. I look at the last five game stats, the categories that I care about. New York has been a better offensive rated, defensive rated and top 10 rebounding team. So I have to look towards their side and wherever they had success all year long, it’s the first half, you get in and you get out. They’re 26 and 11, I believe against the spread with the plus 2.8 margin compared to the Suns who are not completely the opposite but they’re not even at 500, they’re 15 and 19. They do have a plus 1.2 though. So I like the Knicks early in this one. It was minus 120 to take them in the first half on the money line and that’s the way I decided to play it.
Alex:
Yeah, it makes perfect sense to me. It’s not an official play because I got it in just before we started the show, but as soon as Brunson was announced, Dan, I grabbed some Knick’s minus two would play it. Honestly anything three or lower, the Phoenix Suns are really lost. They’re just are not the same team with that Devin Booker and also without Cameron Johnson. Those are two big elements that team is really missing and they continue to struggle with that. Chris Paul does always try to play his best in Madison Square Garden, but the Knicks have been great at home this year and the Phoenix Suns continue to look kind of disjointed. It doesn’t seem like they’re having a lot of fun, Chris.
Chris:
And that’s kind of what has me off this game is the Suns just are always one of these teams who tend to respond after they’ve had some bad games and it’s important that they get Shamet, back. Cameron Payne back. Shamet in particular has been a big offensive contributor in some of their games when they’ve won and when they’ve been able to overcome some teams without Devin Booker. But the answer to this one is Jalen Brunson. I wasn’t sure if he was playing. The fact that he is playing tonight. Obviously he’s probably the most important element for that New York offense at this point brings a different energy and spark. I think everything’s kind of right about this game though. It still has to be close. You got to respect the sons and how they can turn around and respond in these situations. But very, very equally situationally. This is a long road trip for the Suns but as far as rest goes and everything like that, it’s relatively even. So I would have to lean to the next two because of Jalen Brunson was just not a game that I want to bet today.
Alex:
Yeah, it makes perfect sense. Again, this one getting underway shortly so make sure you get these bets in quickly. Skee likes the Knicks first half, again you can get minus half a point there at minus one 10 or the money line at minus one 20 and I just grabbed the Knicks minus two. Again no graphic because it took… We just bet that just a minute ago. But let’s go Knicks, as weird as it is for me to say that. Next up game, that could be fun. We’ll see. It’s a divisional rivalry here. The Chicago Bulls four point underdogs in Cleveland tonight. Cleveland favorites on the money line at minus 175. The total here sitting at 220, 220 and a half, excuse me, what do you think of this one Ski?
Skee:
Well I like this one a couple different ways and first just looking at the total, these teams did just play the total in that last game was around 224 and I think it stayed under by around 20 points. They come back and open this one at around, I think it was 221 and a half. So obviously they’re expecting another low scoring game here and I mentioned this all the time since 2013. In those situations where they play within a week, first game went under, they adjusted the second one under or the total lower is 60.7%, 148 unders, 96 overs. So I did play under the 222 and a half and also these are two bottom 10 pace teams the last five games. So I like that. And further side, well they just played in Cleveland and barely won, right? I know Donovan Mitchell didn’t have the greatest game but they’re still going to be missing Darius Garland here.
Evan Mobley is no guarantee that he will be out there. And just looking at recent performance, Bulls have been a better offensive team, defensive team, if they can do those things and missing those same key guys for Cleveland, I think they can stay in this game. It’s a chance for them to get same season double revenge and they just played the other day. So I have to like the Bull side. The actual numbers or system or however you want to call it, road dogs seeking same season double revenge and their last matchup was within two days. I have them as 37, 27 against the spread. That’s a little bit under 58%. And if their last matchup, if they’re a road dog now and their last matchup, they’re at home so they have to travel this time they’re about 63.3% against the spread. So all of that lines up for me to take the Bulls and the under.
Alex:
Yeah, tricky game. I like your angles there Again, we’ve got a little bit of injury chicanery here. Evan Mobley is questionable. He was a shoot around. Maybe he plays and if he does, I think that definitely helps your under, not sure how it affects the Bulls necessarily, but a little bit of a tricky spot there. Did you have any thoughts on this game, Chris?
Chris:
I would lean to the Calves. I’m just, I’m afraid that the Calves just have the Bulls number. They already beat them twice this year. They match up well, kind of in the same way that the Bucks match up against the Bulls and why they’ve had so much historic success against them. They got the bigs down low, they’re just more physical in the paint. The Calves are still going to have Donovan Mitchell and Jared Allen, which are still their two most important pieces tonight. And the Bulls are just a team I just don’t trust. Even if they look good, they got some good wins recently against the Bucks and the Knicks, they’re just not a team that I trust long term and the Calves have looked kind of clunky, so I’m afraid this could be a regression game. The Calves were atypically inefficient from the field the other night and they still won that game against the Bulls in Chicago.
So if they correct some of those things could be an even better performance for them, especially if Evan Mobley is back. That being said, these are really close games typically because it’s a rivalry and the Bulls can play this close to the vest. I guess Alex Caruso coming back is a good thing for them too, can add some elements on defense. Just it’s close. I think the game, I think the line is right too. We’ve seen it kind of opened around here four and then it ticked up a little bit ticked back down. So I don’t think the marketplace really knows what to do with this one either. I can’t talk Skee off of it. I think the under is a good play though. Checks out to be an under game, closely fought Bulls want to win probably a little bit more after losing the first two so maybe they up their defense because that’s not something you see from Chicago game to game always. So I do like the under, I would lean towards the Calves though in this situation.
Alex:
Chris and I are cowards and just lean towards the under, Luis Martinez and the Chat Skee official. They’ll take the under, Skee also likes the Bulls there plus four and a half. Again I like those division unders. I’ll probably be making an add there once we confirm that Mobley is in. Next up a game featuring the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic just absolutely playing some great basketball. His team seven and a half point favorites in Houston tonight. The Rockets plus 240 on the money line if you’re feeling the dog tonight, the totals of 226 and a half and I didn’t play the money line but I love the underdog tonight I’m going to take the seven and a half points here with the Houston Rockets. They’ve been a much better team at home. We’ve seen a lot less sort of potential tanking nonsense if you will.
In general, I really like the way they’ve been playing basketball the last couple weeks. The team’s coalescing, and again at home they’ve just really been tremendous from a matchup perspective. The Rockets defense isn’t very good but one of the things they do do well is defend perimeter shooting, which is really what the Mavericks like to do. It’s a lot of pick and rolls to set up three pointers. There’s not really an inside presence there. So I like the matchup for Houston, all my numbers like Houston here again, at home, I’m happy to take the seven and a half points and I think this is going to be kind of a clunky game. I’m going to take the under here as well. Houston hasn’t pushed pace as much as they have in the last few seasons and generally let the favorites dictate here and Dallas, we know, loves to play slow. So I’m going to take the points with Houston as well as the under. Chris, you have a side here.
Chris:
Yeah, I like that play, Alex, I’m going to take the Rockets in the first half plus four. And I agree with you, I think the Dallas Mavericks are probably just sick of playing the Houston Rockets at this point. This is already going to be their fourth game. Houston won one of those games. The other was a closely fought game. And then the last one, the Mavericks put it on the Rockets a little bit more. But like you said Alex, I had this game at seven and a half and I’m surprised that’s where it came out. That alone is a signal for me because usually the sportsbooks don’t give Houston that much credit. But especially after Eric Gordon sounded off to the media and was like, “I’m not seeing any improvements with this team whatsoever.” He’s a leader of the team, he’s calling them out.
I expect him to come out fiery tonight, at least in the beginning of this game. I’d rather take it early because you do have to consider how well Luka is playing right now, right? Like a Jordan thing, a Kobe thing, Giannis thing, Curry, you just have to handicap him differently and how he can elevate his entire team, especially when he is scoring over 50 points on a steady basis it seems. So maybe the Mavericks pull ahead in this one late, but I think the Rockets are going to be pretty feisty early in this game. They’ve been playing pretty well on defense against the Mavericks too. Just keeping this game close and like I said, it’s one of those situations where it’s the fourth game. Dallas has seen this team over and over again. It’s a divisional rivalry but it probably matters a lot more to Houston to keep this close. So I like your plays Alex and I’ll take them early.
Alex:
Skee, what do you think of this game here? We just saw Houston play in Dallas, they were 10 point dogs. It’s only a three point adjustment going from Houston to Dallas. Looks like the market not too concerned about the home court advantage there, but any thoughts on this game?
Skee:
Yeah, I would agree with either one of you guys plays first half or full game Mavericks or just not the team that I trust to lay points with. They’re six, what are they? Six and 11 straight up and against the spread on the row. So don’t even have a winning record and when they don’t have a winning record and you’re expecting them to win by almost double digits in this one. So not something I’m looking to do. Last five games, Maverick’s the second worst rebounding team in the league. Houston top five. So if they can get a lot of second chance opportunities, I’ll definitely give them a chance to stay in this game. I would look towards the rockets at the house if I’m getting involved here.
Alex:
Well Dallas… Go ahead Chris.
Chris:
I’m sorry, Alex. I was going to say and to Skee’s point right, with how well Luka has been playing and how often they’ve been winning, this line should really be bigger probably right? But I think maybe even the sports books recognize that. A lot of that is just Luka being a superstar, but some of the stats for the Dallas Mavericks as a team holistically, they need to regress, right? They’re not going to just pull away in all these games. So I think that’s a really good point, Skee.
Alex:
Yeah, last time they played in Houston the spread closed right at seven points and that’s kind of where we are right now. So again, interesting to see not too big of an adjustment there. A couple of plays here. Chris is going to take the Rockets first half plus four, I’ll take them full game plus seven on a half as well as the under Luis and the chat saw, he also likes the under there. So hopefully an under full start to our NBA day. Seven to the next game, two teams that again have been really tough to figure out, the Atlanta Hawks visit, the Golden State Warriors. Warriors, just one and a half point favorites at home. The total sits at 237. What do you think here Chris?
Chris:
I’m going to hold my breath and take the Warriors tonight. And this feels like the same situation as last week I think on Friday last week I said watch guys, some play is going to lose that really didn’t have any business losing and sure enough it did. But here go the Warriors again. The Warriors are at home, well written about guys. We know that this is a different team when they’re at home, especially on defense. They’re the second overall defense in the NBA when they’re at home. Not much defense when they’re on the road. And we know about the Hawks woes on the road, right? Six and 11 away from their home court and the Warriors, they are playing really good defensively and especially in the mid-range. That’s an area that was a weakness for them earlier in the season. Lately I think it’s because some of their young players that they’re bringing into the rotation too, players like Lamb, players like… God this guy’s name is on the tip of my tongue, I don’t know where it went.
But Ty Jerome, that’s another one. These guys are good mid-range scorers, they’re good on defense, they bring energy. Whereas the Hawks now without Clint Capella especially, they do not have an advantage really anywhere on the floor on offense and they’re going to lose a lot of that formidable paint defense that he brings to the table. Okongwu is a good player but he is not a consistent player there for the Hawks. So I think the Warriors can keep on rolling here. I was surprised that this went down to one and a half. I took it at minus three.
Again, just not completely having a grass on this marketplace and where it’s going to go because what is there to value on the hawks on the road at this point, especially against the Warriors team that’s been so good at home and we’ve seen the Hawks really struggle in these situations against teams, like the Lakers the other night who can run the floor and get ahead of you on offense. That’s what Jordan Poole and the Warriors are going to want to do again here tonight. So this is a short line, pretty forgiving. Unless we see some crazy injury report at the end, which you always have to watch out for. I think there’s a lot of value in Golden State tonight.
Alex:
Yeah, I agree. I think it’s Golden State or pass here. Tons of good reasons again, especially Golden State being at home and in a season where there’s just constant inconsistency from teams in terms of their lineups. This Golden State guys have played together for a few years. You can see the cohesion on the court. Obviously they’d rather have Stephen and Andrew Wiggins be out there but they’re sort of figuring it out here. What do you think of this matchup, Skee?
Skee:
Yeah, for me this will be pretty simple. As you know Hawks haven’t been good on the road for the past few years. They’re not good on the road this year. I think they’re the same record as the Maverick, six and 11 straight up and against the spread. Warriors have been dominated at home over the years and it hasn’t really mattered who’s been in the lineup. They just continue to assert themselves. So from that aspect, this is one way ticket, Warriors are pass.
Alex:
Exactly. Warriors are passed. Chris has got the guts. He’s going to lay the one and a half with Golden State tonight at home. Hopefully that success continues. Great job by the chat so far. But go ahead and dump some questions in. We got one more game on the rundown and then we’ll get to your questions in the comments there. This game is very interesting, differing opinions by people on the left and the right of me, general confusion by me. The Miami Heat, just two and a half point underdogs. In Los Angeles, the Clippers on only minus 145 on the money line. The total at 219 and juror report looks clean for the Clippers. They’ve been just absolutely rolling these last couple weeks. Games in which they have Kawhi and Paul George, they’re one of if not the best team in the league when you start to look at some of those numbers. But what do you think here, Chris?
Chris:
Yeah, again, sticking my neck out here and I’m going to go with the Clippers at minus two and a half. First, just point blank, I think the Clippers, especially at full strength, they got Batum on the injury report, that’s about it. As far as significant injury concerns, maybe he won’t play tonight, but to me the Clippers right now are twice the team at the Miami Heat are. The Miami Heat really aren’t doing anything that well. And I know the Clippers just came off that really long road trip.
They’d lost their last two games in spots where… Of course one of those games is against the Celtics but against the Pacers, I thought they were going to clean that up at the end. So there are teams that can get ahead of the Clippers in tough spots and I know we don’t always like to bet on teams in their first game back home, but at full strength again, the Clippers against this Heat team, I think they can really limit what the Heat do on offense because the Heat haven’t really done anything that great on offense so far.
But the Heat shot 51% against them last time. So that’s going to be an area of concern, an area of focus for a Clippers team, that’s among the best in the NBA on defense. They have a little difficulty in that and that is where the Heat likes to score points. So maybe that’s like part of the handicap where the sports books are looking at that. The Heat have a good matchup there. But again we got Kawhi Leonard should be back tonight. We got Paul George, we have a Clippers lineup back home that’s in a really good spot to take care of business and clean up the last few games and I just don’t trust the Heat right now.
I think, you were saying it before the show, Alex, the market likes the Heat probably just a little bit more than we do and so far the Heat just haven’t reminded us really of who they are on a consistent basis. We haven’t seen consistently good defense from them. And really if Tyler Herro doesn’t have a bigger night, it’s almost like they can’t keep up with any team offensively. So go Clippers for me tonight. Again, another short line. It doesn’t really make much sense to me. I had this at around five and a half.
Alex:
Yeah, my numbers say you have the Clippers favored but again the line sits at two and a half. As you start to look at maybe a few things from Miami, they are seven and three in their last 10 games with seven of those games being on the road. That’s fairly impressive. Butler and Adebayo are healthy for the first time here it seems like for a couple games in a row. Yeah, Sam, exactly. We kind of look at our models here and it comes out closer to four or five. But Skee, you kind of thought Miami might be the right side?
Skee:
Yeah, let’s not give the Clippers too much credit. What, they’re 21 and 17? Heat are 19 and 18. They’re not too far ahead of them as far as record is concerned. And yeah, just similar how to… You guys have heard me talk about the Milwaukee Bucks and how their schedule has been lately. This Clippers team, they’ve done nothing but travel, travel, travel, coming off of the long road trip and through the holidays, coming back home for the first day after the holidays I think especially is something that you have to take into consideration because these guys are human, they have a family, they got stuff they have to take care of and they’re probably going to care about that a lot more than the game tonight.
So just thinking about that and yes, the Clippers to Chris’s point have been a great defensive team but that defense has been slacking lately. Last five games I have them bottom five defensive grade team. So if the Heat can continue to play that better brand defense than the Clippers in this game. Offensively, they haven’t been that bad. They’re 11th rated offensive team the last five games and they’re pretty almost equal in the rebounding. I think they can stay in this game, if not win it. So I think Miami’s a little bit more focused right now and tonight and I’ll prefer to grab the points with them if I’m playing.
Alex:
Skee leans to the Heat, I lean to the clippers. Chris actually laying the points here. Clippers minus two and a half tonight hosting the Miami Heat. Let’s jump into some questions here. We’ll start with Rick White ask what do we think of this 76ers New Orleans game. Joel Embiid just recently popped up as questionable in the injury report. Probably means for whatever reason they’re going to sit him tonight. The 76ers though still three and a half, four point favorites. The total sitting around, let’s see in some 227, some 228. So that hasn’t quite settled yet. Skee, did you have any thoughts on that game?
Skee:
Very slight. I was thinking about or wanting to try to back the under just because I know 76ers have been playing a little bit slower lately and both of these teams are really good defending the perimeter. I think they’re number one and number two defending the three so far this season. So just looking at that and I know how capable they’re on defense. I wanted it to go under but I just didn’t get there yet.
Alex:
Yeah, it could be tough too with the 76ers reintegrating, Tyrese Maxey, if Embiid’s out, don’t go anywhere near that under. What do you think Chris?
Chris:
Yeah, I was going to say that I’d actually lean to the over if Embiid’s out, right? He really slows down their offense with the post-op game whereas if they’re going to try to reintegrate Tyrese Maxey more and more, he’s going to speed up the game probably. I kind of wanted to take the Pelicans in this but that does feel like I’m walking into a trap. Even if Embiid doesn’t play tonight, it just feels like much better spot for Philly at home in a revenge game. They just kind of pull this game out with a full team effort. So just don’t want to have a plan in this game. I think it’s about right. I wouldn’t be surprised if it fell down a little bit more though once Embiid obviously is announced officially out. So if you like the 76ers, maybe you wait a little bit. If you like the Pelicans, take it now before it gets even lower.
Alex:
Yeah, great point. And Rick snuck a second question in there. What do we think of a Net’s team total over? It’s a huge number 124 but the Net’s are big favorites tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. I’m seeing minus 12 right now, the total 237. It’s hard for me to figure out these blowout games. You’ve got a Net’s team that has gone over this number a couple times but not regularly. And if they’re up a bunch late, probably sitting people at this point, I struggle to see how this game’s going to play itself out. What do you think, Chris?
Chris:
Yeah, it’s also their first game back. Last time I bet on the Nets to win big and score a lot of offense was against the B team of the Atlanta Hawks and they let me down in that one. So I can’t bet on the Nets again at one of these inflated lines. The Nets check out too in every single intangible way as a team that can totally just nail these games in and not really care about it, right? Because something we don’t think about when the Nets face the Hawks, the Nets also knew that the Hawks were resting all their players. So when they’re in these situations where they should have an easy win, it doesn’t really feel like they treat it that way. So if anything I would have to lean towards the Spurs who can be a feisty team and stay in games but it’s too big of a line, really not that interested. A team total on the Nets seems like it’s always a good idea recently but again probably a pretty sleepy game for Brooklyn.
Alex:
Makes perfect sense. Let’s jump into some questions here about the Hornet Heat game, more specifically, we start with LaMelo Ball, rebounds plus assist. I’m trying to find that number, blah blah blah. Again folks ask me about that. Always try to help us out. I’m seeing 14 and a half here, LaMelo Ball, just rebounds and assist. What do you think of that, Skee?
Skee:
I like LaMelo Ball, I play on him because he’s been pretty consistent. I don’t know why he would take away the points. Lakers aren’t playing any defense. They’re fifth worst or bottom five defensive team in the last five games and are going to continue to play no defense until Anthony Davis comes back and he’s been on a tear. So LaMelo points rebounds assist, rebounds assist. However you think to play him, I can’t talk to you off there.
Alex:
And then what do you think of that game in general? Again, do you like the Lakers tonight?
Skee:
I would look more towards an over, honestly. I think you know Charlotte’s going to play up tempo. They’re number one in pace the last five games and Lakers are just fine playing with pace and I’ve talked enough about how bad the defense is for LA. Charlotte, they’ve been playing a little bit better defense lately, but still not a great defensive team. So it’s just a spot where I know they’re both not great shooting teams as far as the three ball, but with the pace in this game, I still think it can get up and over. So that would be the way I prefer to play it. And also, as long as LeBron’s out there, he’s been balling lately, you have to look towards him to go over his points or something like that.
Alex:
Yeah, that makes sense. Anything to add there, Chris?
Chris:
Yeah, I would look at the Lakers tonight and to be honest with you, I’ve got a mountain of notes in front of me with all these games handicapping, I forget the reason why I like the Lakers a little bit, but of course this is a revenge game for them after they lost to the Hornets at home a few games back. And even though Lakers aren’t playing any sense of defense and Skee would know them better than me being a Lakers fan, I just feel like led by LeBron, when LeBron James sees a team in the previous game he’s going to make on court adjustments you would think to at least try and slow them down a little bit. There’s just a lot more experience and intangible leadership there for the Lakers as far as having LeBron on the floor. So yeah, probably look at the overs again, but I would lean towards the Lakers in this one.
Alex:
Makes sense. And one more question here, Aiden Ross asking, I was unaware of this but apparently there’s some sort of trend the Warrior’s defense has been great, they’ve been keeping teams under their team total at Portland, only scored 112. I believe that one was closer to 115, Utah 107. In general it looks like they’ve been an under team. What have you got, Skee?
Skee:
No, it’s some crazy trend, when the Warriors are at home, if the opponent team total is, I think it’s 118 and a half, it was something like 68 and four to the under. It wasn’t 118 and a half when I looked this morning it was 117 and a half. But I think that’s the trend that they’re talking about there. And if that was the number, Golden said it’s been pretty good defensively. I know that’s part of the reason Chris said that’s why he backed up tonight. So if it did get to 118 and a half I would play it under.
Alex:
Yeah, it makes sense. It kind of feels like an under game in general. Anything to add, Chris?
Chris:
Just that the key for that game tonight is going to be to Johnson Murray and you know how effective he can be on offense because it seems like when he has really good games, the Hawks do improve, they get hanging games, they can win, they just don’t have the pieces to keep up with teams offensively all the time. Especially with how clunky Trey Young has been and Warriors are playing much better defense in the mid-range, which is where a lot of their offensive contributors like to play from on the Hawk. So I do look like that look on a Hawk’s team total under tonight. I think all the unders in that game have some links to him.
Alex:
Yeah, makes a ton of sense. Great job everybody. Thanks Rick. Thanks Aiden, Eirich, [inaudible 00:28:02], love all the questions there. Let’s get to our best bets though. Here’s what we’ve actually laid down some money on. Chris, Rockets first half plus four, Warriors minus one and a half and the Clippers minus two and a half. I’ll take the Rockets full game plus seven and a half and under in that game as well, under 226 and a half. Skee likes the Knicks first half, minus half a point. Get that in now, that tip off is coming in about the next five minutes. Skee also has the Bulls plus four and then the Bulls-Calves under 222 and a half. Thanks again everybody for watching. Please give us a thumbs up, hit the subscribe button there and we got to go. There’s a basketball game on right now. I’ll be back tomorrow as a guest I think with one of these other guys. Who knows. We’ll see you then. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Best of luck.
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