Alex Christensen:
Happy Monday, everybody. And welcome back to the BetUS NBA show. Monday through Friday, we’ve got all your NBA picks, all our thoughts for every NBA game. I’m Alex Christensen and joining me as always, two of the very best basketball handicappers you can find, Skee Profit, Chris at FarleyBets, Farley. Gentlemen, I know we’re here to talk about NBA, but Chris is wearing his Giants sweatshirt, the NFL playoffs get started. That’s what we were talking about before we got the show anyway. So quickly, Chris, I know I already asked you this, but how are we feeling about the Giants not only on Sunday but long term? What do you think?
Chris:
Yeah, Giants have a lot of building blocks I think to at least become a better team in the next few seasons. In my opinion, they still need a quarterback. Daniel Jones, he’s a nice guy, he’s a disciplined player, but I don’t think he can take them to the next level. But they got a shot, guys, I mean the Minnesota Vikings is the only three-pointer favorites at home for a reason because Giants played them very close. And this might be the only chance I can wear anything about the Giants right up until other wild-card rounds. I might as well wear it now guys. So I’m just glad the playoffs are here because the NFL has been quite a load for me to work on content-wise, but you could check us out Thursday, BetUS NFL show, we’ll be there again.
Alex Christensen:
Awesome. Now Skee, I know you’re a Chargers fan, you’re in the playoffs, but what the heck was that on Sunday? Why are all those guys actually playing football? What was that? What’s up with that?
Skee:
Yeah, I have no clue but I’m feeling exactly how Chris is feeling because usually around this time my team is done playing football, but not this year. So they look good. I think I’m liking what I’m seeing from Herbert. Hopefully, we can get a win and not just be one and done, so. And as far as the Giants, I think that’s a really good sight this week. They’ve covered 10 out of the 12 games out of dock. I’m trying to find as many reasons as I can to back your boys, Chris.
Chris:
The Giants are the best ATS team in football this year, believe it or not.
Alex Christensen:
That makes a lot of sense. I mean we might as well at this point since we’re talking about it. Chris, who’s going to win the Super Bowl? Give me your Super Bowl game and the winner, come on.
Chris:
I’ve had a future on the Buffalo Bills all season and you hate to leverage what just happened with Damar Hamlin. But now that he’s okay, I do think that’s going to be a significant motivational factor throughout the playoffs. As long as they can get past KC, which is not easy, I think the Bills do win it all this year.
Alex Christensen:
All right, so you got the Bills. Who are the Bills beating in the Super Bowl, the Giants?
Chris:
I think it has to be San Francisco. I mean they won 10 straight games guys. They’re an absolute juggernaut, best defense in the NFL, but hard to style Josh Allen or a Patrick Mahomes when they get going. So we’ll say, or I should say Joe Burrow. Don’t sleep on Joe, guys. He could go right to the Super Bowl with the Bengals. It’s another team. Eight wins in a row for the Bengals.
Alex Christensen:
All right, so Bills over 49ers for Chris, what are you thinking, Skee?
Skee:
I hate to use the exact same things, but that’s really how I feel. I just think it’s a big emotional boost like he said and it’s not like we’re already thinking the Bills might have been the best team in the NFL to start the season. So just putting it all together and seeing how, I don’t know, I just feel like that’s the right side as far as the AFC. I know Josh Allen’s going to have a chip on his shoulder because Joe Burrow’s already been there before. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder versus Mahomes obviously because of that last game that they played. I just think that’s the right side for AFC and NFC. I mean if the Niners can’t do it right now, what are they even doing? Best defense, they add in McCaffrey to the mix. As long as you can get decent quarterback play, which you don’t even have to do too much over there. I think they make it. I don’t see Brady or anybody else challenging them so I’d have to agree with Chris.
Alex Christensen:
It’s a good pick. I think it is probably the favorite here. I mean again, it’s tough to pick against Kansas City when they get to play at home the whole way and I don’t know, maybe the Eagles will be okay with their real starting quarterback. But that’s enough, NFL talk. That’s enough, we’re done. We’ll get back to it maybe later when the Super Bowl actually gets here. Let’s get started as we always do by looking at the team’s record. I know it doesn’t look like the best but it’s getting better. We actually had a great week last week as a show. We were 18 and 10 so we hope to continue to build on this with another good week coming up here. Let’s jump into the game. Starting first with the first game of the night, the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Washington Wizards. No Zion Williamson, no Brandon Ingram for the New Orleans Pelicans. No Bradley Beal for the Wizards.
The Wizards short favorites here. Minus one and a half, just minus 125 on the money line. The total sits at 228 and a half. I like the under here. It’s one of the things I’ve talked about on the show and it’s done pretty well this year so far. I need to actually pull up what the record is. But the Wizards without Bradley Beal have just been a dead nut under team. The offense becomes slightly less efficient and more importantly the pace really slows down for them. Defensively, they become better.
You look at this Pelicans team, no Zion, no Brandon Ingram. They’ve been able to win games but again, not putting up really big numbers here. I think these are two teams that are going to be happy to play kind of a slow kind of tough game here. A lot of work on the inside for Valanciunas and Porzingis here tonight. So I’m going to go ahead and play the under. I was able to scoop this up earlier today around 228. It’s a 228 and a half here. So the overs gotten a little support so far, but it seems like it’s settled. I’m going to go with the under here. Skee, what do you think of the side?
Skee:
Yeah. I’ll be looking towards the Washington side and when I initially look at it is their favorite. They don’t even have a winning record versus the Pelicans team who’s a 60% winning team right now and it’s just like that stands out to me. It’s telling me that the Wizards are a favorite for a reason here. Pels have lost four of their last five games still without two of their top scorers. And Brandon Ingram and Zion, they don’t have a winning record on the road. There’s seven and 11 straight up and against the spread. So just not a lot to like from that New Orleans side right now.
Whereas, the Wizards, yes, they’ve lost two in a row, but they just won five straight before that. Last five game stats as far as the ones that I look at, rebound percentage, offensive rating, defensive rating, all favor the Wizards side home. They have the rest advantage two days to one. Home favorites with that rest advantage win about 72.5% of the time and that’s dating back to I think 1995. So looking at all of that, the Wizards do have a winning record at home. They’re 10 and seven straight up. I think they get another W tonight. So Wizard’s on the money line for me.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I think Washington’s the right side and this is something we kind of joked honestly about on the show on Friday. Chris, I’ll kind of ask you what do you think Bradley Beal is worth to this Wizards team? When I was talking with Jay and Josh about it, we really think it’s only about a point or so and it might even be less than that. I mean he just kind of changes the way the Wizards play and they’re probably a better team without him. But as you start to handicap them, it seems like the market kind of moves them a little bit when Beal is out. But there continues to be a little value in this Wizards team. So I like Skee’s play. What do you think of the game and again, Beal in general?
Chris:
Yeah, Beal is probably one and a half for me at this point, too. You could probably make a case either one or two. But, yeah, to start off the season, it looked like the Wizards weren’t going to be able to be a formidable offensive team without him but they’ve kind of turned a corner with that, right. They just have some players who are developing well. I think they’re also developing more chemistry as a unit. I remember we talked about this in a previous BetUS NBA show. It’s just they have some pieces that have been there for a long time and they still have those core components so they can still figure things out. Obviously Kuzma, Porzingis, some of their other additions have made quite an impact as well. I don’t know why I’m not on the under in this game with you, Alex. I think the biggest reason is just because I have a little bit of exposure tonight on all these games so this is just one that I faded.
But both top 10 defensive teams in the last few games, mid-tier and pace. So they’ll probably be cultivating a slower pace between the both of them. And obviously you have Zion out, you still have Brandon Ingram out and you have Beal out tonight. So a lot of their top scores are out. And we saw kind of the best version of the Pelicans the other night. Even in a loss against the Nets, without their key contributors, they just played really good defense, they’re really feisty for most of that game. And then the Nets came alive at the end and ended up winning.
But that’s kind of how the Pelicans run their business is they turn towards defense. They’re a scrappy team, obviously a great bench, but the Wizards have a pretty good bench, too. They’ve been a top half of the league as far as the contributions go, field goal percentage and things like that. So that’s what has me off this game a little bit like maybe, they can still muster some points in this one. But 228 does feel high for me. I have it more around 220 and maybe I’ll come around and I’ll still bet the under. These two teams are just a little more unpredictable for this matchup without their key scores.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, makes a lot of sense.
Skee:
In relation to what Chris was saying earlier in the season, I remember a point where Bradley Beal was out and they started to play through Kuzma. And he had an interview after the game, just saying like he’s been telling the coaching staff that they should play through him and he’s ready for that. So it is just to go with what Chris is saying as far as Wizards playing without Bradley Beal.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I mean Skee, you know as good as anybody being a Lakers fan, Kuzma was a borderline all star when they traded him. He was somebody that was getting a lot of minutes really progressing and I thought his first year in Washington, I think I bet him for MIP or Sixth Man or something like that. Just been kind of waiting for this and it’s nice to see him kind of get back to being a great player. But in terms of official picks, Skee is going to take the Wizards’ money line. I’ll take an under 228 and a half here tonight for the Pelicans/Wizards game.
Let’s jump into our next match up where we all have a consensus pick on the spread. Of course, that doesn’t make any of us nervous. The Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls is eight and a half point favorites minus 330 on the money line. The total sits at 236 and this is a particularly fascinating match up because this will be the final time these teams play this year. They’ve already played three times. Chicago has won both games at home outright and was able to cover the one game on the road here in Boston. The Celtics continued to just get really big numbers here. We’ll start with you here, Chris. What do you think of this matchup?
Chris:
Yeah, this is a pretty straightforward handicap for me and I’ll speculate and talk more about the next two games. But I don’t know how I cannot bet on the Chicago Bulls tonight. I mean the Celtics are going to be without Marcus Smart, too. At least that’s what it seems like, he’s doubtful right now, which is still arguably the most important defensive piece now. Robert Williams III coming back, obviously adds a new element there and we’ve seen some things from him since he did come back. But the Bulls are playing with a lot of confidence and three games against the Celtics so far this year. The two and one, they’ve scored at least 119 points in those games. We’re seeing some really good games from Zac LaVine who’s kind of in a flow state right now, just in a good rhythm.
Vucevic as well. He’s criticized a lot but he had a few double doubles recently. He’s kind of come into his own and it just seems like they’re not that affected by Boston’s defense. At least that’s what it seems like in the previous three games this season. So you at least have to think that they can keep this game close. Boston also just kind of struggling lately from an ATS perspective, one five and one ATS in their last six games were as the Bulls or something like five and one or six and one ATS in their last three games. So this is another good spot I think for the Bulls. If this was maybe around four or five, maybe you think about obviously taking the Celtics but eight and a half is a little much for me. I have this game around five, five and a half so I got to play in Chicago.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I agree. I mean the only sort of fly in the ointment for me is we’ll have Robert Williams, the Time Lord on the floor tonight for the first time in these matchups. He’s just pretty good against Chicago last year, but the Bulls seem to be a little bit of a different team over the last couple weeks. And even this season, going back and looking despite not having the best record in the NBA, there’s six and one against, I think it’s Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee so far this year. So opposite of what we saw last year, they seem to have found a way to step it up in some of these bigger spots. Skee, you agree with us here in the Bulls, but you also have a look on the total.
Skee:
Yeah, I agree. And trying not to say too much of the same thing as you guys said, just last five game stats, recent performance that I looked at all favors the Bulls here. And just extra numbers to what Chris is saying, they’ve been really good in conference, first competition. Competition to me is 55% win team or greater and I just have the Bulls as nine, two and two against the spread versus those teams. So giving them eight and a half points versus Celtics team like you said, who hasn’t been playing that well lately, hasn’t been covered, I’d have to grab it.
So I agree with you guys there. And on the total, I mean you have it number four and number 11 offensive rated teams here and both bottom 10 defensive rated teams, the last five games, yeah. You have both top 10 shooting at three so far this season. And the one thing that does worry me on the Bulls side but not enough to not take them is they’re the second worst three-point defense and we know how easily the Celtics can light it up. So all of that, I already said I like the Bulls side. But the Celtics play with pace, I think the Bulls will be fine playing a little bit uptempo here today and I don’t think we see any defense. So I like the over 236 along with the Bulls plus eight and a half.
Alex Christensen:
All right, let’s go Bulls, baby. All three of us will take Chicago on the points tonight, Bulls plus eight and a half. Skee also likes the over in what should be a fun game, it will be really one of the better ones to watch tonight. Up next, we’ll talk about the Milwaukee Bucks, the floundering Milwaukee Bucks if you will. Visit the New York Knickerbockers here in Madison Square Garden. The Bucks here, I’m sorry. The Knicks actually now short favorites here of minus one. It’s kind of a shocking thing to see. I mean a month ago if I told you the Knicks were minus one, you would assume Giannis or somebody was out. But just missing Khris Middleton here tonight from Milwaukee, the total sits at 221 and a half. We’ll start with you here, Chris. You’ve got to look on the Bucks. You’re thinking it’s maybe a bounce back night for them offensively.
Chris:
Yeah, I sure hope it is because that last game, man, allowing 51 points to the Hornets in the first quarter. I mean that was one of the most surprising things I’ve seen I think all season. Especially a Bucks team at home with how clunky the Hornets have been, it’s just been rough and I know it’s easy to point towards defense there. Obviously, they have to make some improvements on their defense. But they’ve been a bottom three team offensively recently too, last five to 10 games and I just think there’s a lot of rotational issues going on here. I mean Jrue Holiday is still under 900 minutes this year, plus 10 point differential when he is on the floor. Pat Connaughton under 500 minutes, Joe Ingles is now back in the mix and he can definitely add to that, like a sharp shooter on the outside, at least. And obviously Khris Middleton is still working his way back in dealing with that right knee injury.
The point is it’s just been a lot of Brook Lopez, Giannis, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, and Giannis can’t do it all on his own. But you do have a Knicks team here who they’ve been more focused on their offense too, top five offense recently. The Bucks are running at a fast pace and I think that Charlotte game left the Bucks concerned about their defense, sure. But also concerned about the fact that maybe they can’t hang with these smaller teams who go fast pace and put up a lot of offense. So I think there’s going to be an emphasis on that tonight. I think the Bucks just attacked from the very beginning and then four out of the last six games against these very same, Knicks, they have scored over 110 points. So I’m going to go with their team total over 110 and a half tonight. Maybe the Bucks don’t win, I can’t pick their side with the way they’re playing lately and some of these unpredictable results. But I do expect a high scoring game and I do expect them to at least get over that mark.
Alex Christensen:
I expect a high scoring game here, too. I’m just going to take the full game over. It’s 221 and a half here. This Knicks team has been really surprising this year in terms of pushing pace a little bit. The offense seems to be much more efficient. And the Bucks team we once knew as an absolute lockdown defensive unit is leaking just about everywhere at this point. I mean things have been a little bit better with Jrue Holiday. He has historically been pretty good against Jalen Brunson. But I had this total close to the mid 220s, in the 221 or so we’re seeing right now. So Chris and I like a lot of points tonight, Skee, but you have a thought on who might win.
Skee:
Right. And I mean this Bucks team still, I mean it’s been one game where they haven’t had to do any travel. Like it has been a team that’s been traveling all the way back to Thanksgiving like every single game. So I just think all of that is weighing on them right now along with the inconsistency with the lineup. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton hasn’t been playing. Once they get some consistency and start to, or not traveling so much, I’m going to start backing the Bucks pretty consistently. But on this one, Knicks last five game stats favor them. They’ve been playing the better basketball, they won four in a row, they’re at the house and it’s a chance for them to get same season double revenge. So I like that for them. I don’t like RJ Barret game time decision or doubtful however he is, but I just think this is a spot where the Knicks will care a lot more and they’ve been playing the better basketball.
I think it starts early as well. Knicks first half, I have them as a plus 3.6 margin compared to plus 0.1 for the bucks. If we look at the home and road splits, it gets a little bit better, plus 5.8 for the Knicks compared to minus 0.9 for the Bucks. And if you just look at more recent last three games plus 13.3 margin for the Knicks and minus 3.7. So just two teams going a little bit opposite directions right now, I feel like. Knicks have covered eight of their last 10 first halfs at the house. So it’s a situation for me where I double up and go Knicks early and often, first half full game.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, that makes sense. And you make a good point, you said it a few times and I should have thought about it. I quickly added it up here from the beginning of the season until about Thanksgiving, the Bucks had only played six games on the road. From Thanksgiving up until now, I’m counting 12, maybe 13 games in the road with a lot of back and forth from home there. Again, that’s really brutal and a great point by Skee. He’s going to take the Knicks tonight full game and first half. Chris and I are cheering for points. I’ll take the full game total over 221 and a half. Chris hopes the Bucks put up a big number tonight at least 111 points.
One more game for us here on the rundown. Be sure to hop into the comments section, let us know if you have any questions. You can even ask an NFL question, don’t worry about it, I won’t make too much fun of you. But let’s get to our last NBA game here on the rundown. The Los Angeles Lakers, Skee, resurge on Los Angeles Lakers are 10 point underdogs tonight. In Denver, the Nuggets again, big favorites, minus 450 on the money line. The total is the 241 and a half and two of you feel the same about this. But I’ll start with you here Skee because it might be one of the few opportunities all season you’ve had to say some nice things about your Lakers.
Skee:
Yeah. But right before the show, I think I saw LeBron downgrade to questionable so that’s obviously going to change …
Chris:
[inaudible 00:18:49]Skee:
… how I feel about the game a little bit. Yeah, you got to deal with these injuries as we go. What I will say is I looked up the situation because initially I was thinking no, Lakers have been playing really good basketball lately. They’ve won and covered six of their last seven games and you’re giving them 10 points here. Denver, they have also been playing really good, they’ve covered six of their last seven. And I typed in the situation for the Lakers, which is just a road dog off four wins or a double digit road dog off four wins and they were not successful against the spread. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but I want to say the percentage was in the 30s. And that shied me away from taking the Lakers plus the points. But I looked towards the total.
We got two teams here. Lakers, they played extremely uptempo. Nuggets, not so much but they’re extremely efficient offense. I have them both last five games, number one and number two offensive rated teams. And I talk about it plenty of times, without Anthony Davis out there for the Lakers, I’m not expecting a whole lot of defense. Nuggets, they’re a really bad pick-and-roll defense team and I think Russ and maybe a couple other guys will be able to take advantage along with an uptempo pace. So for me, I’m looking towards the over. I have the Lakers as 14 and eight to the over on the road so far this season. I think three of their … They played five road games the last two weeks, three of them went over. And the Nuggets, they’re five and two to the over the last two weeks. So I’m thinking there’s more points than not. Obviously, I like to play less with LeBron now being downgraded to questionable, but that’s the way I chose to play this game, the up and over 241.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I like that over and you might get a little puzzled by this, but LeBron out is good for points. We’ve seen and I looked this up a few days ago. When it’s just Russell Westbrook out there, the pace for the Lakers jumps up dramatically. This game should be much quicker. Chris, you like the over, too?
Chris:
Yeah, I’m on the other over 239 and a half last night, but there’s still plenty of value I think at 241 and a half. Yeah and Lakers’ pace is just getting faster and faster. So if they can get faster tonight then I mean they’re really going to be flying up and down the court. They’re the number one team in pace last five games. And the thing about what’s happening right now for the Lakers is it’s an obvious pivot, right. Anthony Davis isn’t able to play again. Typical Anthony Davis stuff, but you kind of turn towards offense because your defense just isn’t going to be there as much and it’s working. I mean they’re functioning at a much higher level on offense. I like what they’re seeing from their bench, too. I mean players like Austin Reaves, Thomas Bryant, Wenyen Gabriel becoming more and more effective pieces for their rotations. Now, Austin Reaves is going to be out tonight and that actually is a pretty solid offensive contributor that they’re going to miss tonight.
But I mean their bench is number one in assist over the last 10 games. Their top six and three point percentage, top six and points overall, top 10 in field goal percentage. So they’re getting contributions from throughout their roster. It’s just the Lakers team I think that’s coming together and kind of figuring themselves out a little bit. The Nuggets run faster at home too and we know how proficient they’ve been on the offensive side of the floor. So I don’t see the Lakers changing their recipe. Even if LeBron James is sitting tonight, hopefully, he’s not but he’s a coach on the bench so they’re just going to have to keep up with the Nuggets. They won six out of the last seven games, so why would they change the recipe? So still likely over tonight we keep seeing it, stick with it.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, and I’m sorry to mention this too, Skee. If it’s going to be a blowout, that’s usually good for the over so we’ll see how things go. Hopefully, there’s a lot of points that I … I like the over but I’m a coward. These two brave men are going to take it, give them over 241 and a half here tonight in the Lakers/Nuggets game. Let’s get into some questions here from the folks in the chat. Start with Luis Martinez. According to Luis here, it seems like we have a small window to under bet some of these Suns games with no Booker, with CP3 kind of being beat down a little bit, a lot of half court sets. So kind of in general here guys, what have you noticed about the Phoenix Suns here maybe the last week and then has anything stuck out to you particularly from a totals perspective? Again, maybe unders? I’ll start with you, Skee.
Skee:
I was on the Suns under, I think it was yesterday and it did cash. And yeah, I agree. I mean the offense is struggling a hell of a lot without Devin Booker out there. I’ll say I like Chris Paul out there if I want the under because I know he is going to play slow. And especially when he gets to that fourth quarter, he’s going to walk it up and milk that clock. So when I’m looking at the Suns, I want him in if I want it under. If I see Cameron Payne in the starting line up, I know it happens sometimes, but he’s going to be running and gunning so I’ll try my best to stay away from it if he’s the starting guard.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. Four unders in a row here for Phoenix, six of their last nine games have gone under. Again, it kind of makes sense a lot. I mean I know Chris, you’re not a big Devin Booker fan, but he does score points.
Chris:
Yeah, I don’t really have much to add to what Skee said. He’s right, but you know someone like Cameron Payne has been out a few games too, he still probably contributes to these under, so yeah. He might be onto something there.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, it makes perfect sense. Let’s jump into a game that we did not talk about here, the Sacramento Kings about six point favorites here tonight hosting the Orlando Magic. Clint Zurley, going to ask here, now what do you guys think about Sacramento covering this number? The Magic have been great. But if you take a look here for Sacramento, they have covered just one time in their last, I believe eight games here. So is this a bounce back spot here for Sacramento? Again, Orlando’s been great but at some point the Kings have to cover, don’t they, Chris?
Chris:
They do, but this line might be a little too much. I’m not playing this game for two reasons today. First of all, to be honest, I just had a ton of NFL work to do this morning so I just couldn’t focus on this game. But secondly, I’m not going to bet against the Magic and this would be a spot where I would want to bet on the Kings. But the Magic are just a good team this year. I mean we have to say like so far they’re pretty darn good. I would rate them pretty close to where the Kings are and obviously, we saw the Kings taking off earlier in the season. But that’s kind of settled down especially on defense lately. So if they can’t stop some of these contributors from the Magic that are doing it game in and game out, then I don’t know if they’re going to be able to cover this line again. So I’m not running to the window to bet on the Kings right now. If anything, I would lean Orlando.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, Kings again, six point favorites here. What did you think of this game, Skee?
Skee:
Orlando plays tomorrow, I don’t like that for them and they’ve been pretty terrible on the road. They’ve won five out of 18 games. But I still just, I cannot get there to back the Sacramento Kings. This is not the kind of team where you expect them to win by margins like this. I think Chris said it, what, they’ve covered one game in the last two weeks? Absolutely not would I expect them to win by multiple possessions, this Magic or pass feels better.
Alex Christensen:
Makes perfect sense. One more question here. Rick actually asked two questions, but we covered the … Sorry, Kings. We already covered the Kings. Again, we think they win but that money line’s pretty juicy. Maybe find another way to bet that game. If Orlando loses, it probably should be pretty big. But Rick White also wants to know, what do we think of a Bulls team total over here? We all like the Bulls to cover this spread. Do we think they score a lot of points or is this maybe a little bit of a slower clunkier game? Chris, what do you think about maybe a Bulls team total to go with our Bulls plus eight and a half?
Chris:
Yeah, they have scored at least 119 points in all three games against the Celtics this year. Their field goal percentages were up in every one of those games. I haven’t watched back all the film on those games, but the Bulls have just matched up well, and now Marcus Smart is out. So it’s probably a good bet on Chicago tonight that’s a little low at their team total. At the same time, if you want to fade that then you’re betting on the Celtics recovering kind of being back to normal with their stifling defense at home. But without a leader out there and Marcus Smart who’s currently doubtful, I definitely lean towards their team total over, I think that’s a good look.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I like it better than obviously the team total under. Again, I prefer the spread. I wonder how clunky this game gets. They have kind of been under spot. Skee, what do you think?
Skee:
I like the Bulls and I like the over so you put them together and that’s what you get right, Chicago team total over. The only thing I’ll say is I do think Celtics can contribute a little bit just because of that poor perimeter defense for Chicago. But other than that, I mean last two weeks, they’re averaging about 122 points per game. So looking at 113 and a half number, Tyler coming back does give him a little bit better defense missing Marcus Smart. The opposite, I would go over the 113 and a half team total.
Chris:
Yeah.
Alex Christensen:
All right, makes sense. Go ahead, Chris.
Chris:
I was going to add, I mean if anything these lines 113 and a half plus eight and a half, like there’s something shady about it. So I mean hopefully the sports books don’t know something we don’t, because I don’t know how to not take Chicago in this spot tonight.
Alex Christensen:
Makes perfect sense. And I’ll toss in one more question. I know we started with football and I can’t believe we’re going to end with it, but it just occurred to me, the national championship game is tonight.
Chris:
Yeah.
Alex Christensen:
What are we doing with the national championship game here, Chris? Georgia’s a 13-point favorite. I’ve seen sharp people laying the points. The total I think is like 63, 64 at this point. What are we doing tonight? What’s happening?
Chris:
Yeah, I gave out a free pick on this in some form so might as well do it here. I think the best play in this game is the over. I would even consider taking an alt over in this game. Whenever Georgia has faced an average or poor defense, they’ve scored well into the 40s when they dropped the 50 burger on LSU. And now you got TCU who obviously they can put up some points too, look what they did to Michigan. So I think that TCU at least gets in the mid-20s, but I’m expecting for Georgia to at least get in the 40s. So I think this is a nice over bet tonight. You can’t rule out TCU, they’re all awfully feisty and if they set the tone scoring then Georgia can definitely keep up with them, too. So I just think one of these offenses is going to set the tone. Obviously, Georgia has a much better defense. But the speed of TCU, they find ways to still score points. So 63 and a half is a little too low for me, I’m taking the over tonight.
Alex Christensen:
Makes perfect sense to me. Skee, do you have any thoughts on the big game tonight?
Skee:
No, I’m not that knowledgeable in college football at all, so I’m not going to waste anybody’s time or anything like that. Go with who Chris said.
Alex Christensen:
I’ll make up a random bet. Give me the Georgia team total over. Chris likes the over. Smart people told me Georgia. Georgia to score 40 points. That seems easy enough. I mean it’s just like Skee said, if you like the over in the Bulls, you just take the Bulls’ team total over, really shouldn’t be that complicated. Thanks everybody for the great questions. Luis, Clint, Rick, we really appreciate it. Make sure you give us a thumbs up too, while you’re down there clicking around. Let’s get to our best bets, what we actually have tonight on the slate for us. All of us like the Chicago Bulls plus eight and a half.
Chris is going to take the Bucks team total over and the Lakers/Nuggets over as well. I’m going to play a Pelicans/Wizards under and a Bucks/Knicks over. Skee’s got the Wizard’s money line. Bull/Celtics over, Knicks first half and full game, and a Lakers/Nuggets over 241. And again, we all like the Bulls. I like the consensus look here. Thanks everybody for watching. We really appreciate it. Again, the show will be back tomorrow to give you more information about that slate. Be sure to follow us all on Twitter, the show. Skee at SkeeProfit, Chris at FarleyBets, and myself at _Noops. Let’s get some winners tonight. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Best of luck to everybody. Enjoy the basketball and that football stuff.
