Basketball Betting Odds for Tuesday, Dec 6th
What’s up? What’s up everybody? Welcome to another NBA show from BetUS TV we’re we give out free NBA picks guys Monday through Friday.
I’m your host Jay Money. That’s my guy, Chris Farley. It’s my guy Josh as well.
Josh, how you doing brother? Everything cool with you?
Doing all right man. Doing all right.
Hoping for a much better day of NBA action. It’s been a rough week. I’d say a little bit more, ten days if we want to be exactly precise for me.
Try to deal with it as best we can and keep going and doing what we do. So hopefully a better one in store today for everyone.
Exactly. Hoping for a better day. What’s up with you Chris? Everything cool with you my brother?
Yeah, I’ll tell you what, everything is even cooler now that I’m on the show with you guys because even though I never cheer for anyone else’s losses, it’s nice to have colleagues who are experiencing some of the same, I guess we can call it variance?
I don’t want to just blame variance every time, but it’s one of those things where at different parts of any NBA season, you got to humble yourself and just be like, I don’t know.
I don’t know why that happened. I don’t know how that happened.
So I had a crappy night last night too. 0-6 actually overall a little overexposed, doubled down on a few bets. Including the Heat, which was quite a pathetic showing by them.
So we’re back at it again because that’s all we do throughout the NBA season, but nice to have colleagues like you guys who we can share in some of the sorrows.
Yeah, I got smoked yesterday personally to be honest with you. I didn’t even feel like talking basketball this morning guys, but here on the show man, sometimes it’s like that man.
But we got three games. We’re going to break them down. Let’s go overhead and look at our best bet records for the season guys.
I know that we could be a little bit better, but it’s all good.
Sitting at 115, 130 and 300 overall on the season guys, but still going to get to some cash.
We’re only 1/4 through the season so about 75% more of the season to go. We will win my guys. We’ll try to stack up those wins as best as we can.
But let’s go ahead and get to today’s games here. A lot of great games. Three games on the card today. Couple of national TV games. Can’t wait to watch them. Definitely going to beat some great games here guys.
Let’s go ahead and get to the first game up here. First game up, we’re going to the streets of Cleveland here.
We have the Cavs. Laying five points versus the LA Lakers here. Cavs laying -200 on the money line.
If you’d like to take the Lakers, a hundred dollar Lakers to win straight up, you can get back +170 on this one. We have our over-under sitting at 225 and 1/2 in this one, Josh.
How you looking at this game, my brother? Do you think the Lakers can keep their stellar play going in this one?
Yeah, I mean they look like they’ve sort of created some sort of identity about themselves.
Which was I think the biggest issue about this team in the early goings, was the fact that no one really knew what they were trying to do. Including the players themselves who weren’t necessarily too sure of their roles and responsibilities.
But that’s become much clearer now. And as you can see the results have sort of flipped as a result of that.
But this is an entirely different test now. I think we’re actually going to see what the Lakers are made of, not just in this game but in this next week where they have a pretty tough schedule coming up. They started the East Coast trip looking great. But I mean again, a little bit of perspective on who they’ve played so far and what’s yet to come.
This undoubtedly the biggest test.
I think obviously Jarrett Allen’s still questionable, that’s going to make a pretty big impact on how this game might play out today as well.
What he does for that team in terms of rim protection and then allowing Evan Mobley to sort of play as a free room defender just changes Cleveland’s defensive scheme so much. And makes them so difficult to break down in the half courts. So keep a very close eye on whether Jarrett Allen is good to go. I think that’s going to have significant impact on both the total and the line here.
As it currently stands. I mean I make this game -4 and 1/2. So basically on the line. I make the total 222, which I initially thought was really high but then you sort of look at how both teams execute their offense and I think there is a path to success for both teams.
I would still probably lean towards the under just because the projected number of possessions I think might be a little bit high. I think this one ends up being played at a much slower pace, a little bit more intensity to it than usual. You’ve got the LeBron homecoming et cetera.
So I would lean towards an under here. I just haven’t pulled the trigger on anything. I would probably lean towards the Cavs if Jarrett Allen is in. Just because I think that they are still the more known commodity of the two. However, if he’s out then the Lakers would be the only way I could play this one.
Yeah, it’s a good point there Chris. Obviously, I mean Jarrett Allen can affect everything. I mean he’s probably going to affect some props and everything.
Obviously the guys like to bid on some rebounds, [inaudible 00:04:34] I feel like he’s going to really affect everything whether he’s in or out here.
So kind of sort of sitting in the middle with him questionable believe he’s been out the last three games with a back contusion. So if he comes back, obviously the under will probably get pounded and obviously the Cavs line will go up as well Chris. But how you looking at this one as it stands right now?
Yeah, I am going to make a play on the Lakers in this game at +5.
I just started the show talking about some of my transgressions betting and here I am betting on the Lakers. So maybe this one’s going to be my own fault.
But, listen, Anthony Davis is we have to say it right, is just on an absolute tear right now. Ever since the Lakers kind of started to figure things out.
Which I started at the Nets game in mid-November when they got that win there. So the last nine games. And I’m ruling out, there was a game in between I think where just a complete anomaly.
But 35.3 points per game, 2.8 blocks per game, 16.6 rebounds per game for Anthony Davis.
Obviously playing some of the best basketball we’ve seen from him in a long time. And obviously I hope Jarrett Allen does not play tonight, but Anthony Davis when he is playing at his best, when he is motivated, when he is focused, which those all seem to be checked right now, it shouldn’t matter. It shouldn’t matter who he matches up against because the physical gifts that guy has is what LeBron James I think has been waiting for a long time. To kind of see that really come to fruition.
I totally agree with what Josh said, right? This is a team that really didn’t have an identity.
Darvin Ham, I give him a lot of credit for that because just seems like a very self-aware coach. Like a team that needed to be coached up and kind of find themselves again. He can admit when he’s wrong but he can also tell the players exactly what they need to do.
So it just feels like a Lakers team that’s coming together.
Russell Westbrook is making a lot of those try hard plays that might not be in the stats sheet but hustling, chasing after balls, saving balls been going out of bounds, things like that.
Lakers lost to Cleveland earlier this month at the Staples Center. Obviously when LeBron goes back home he tends to really care about those things in Cleveland.
So these long road trips, it’s been tough. But Lakers faring well so far. We’re getting five points. I put it at three points so still getting a little bit of value here now I put it at three points for Jarrett Allen out.
You obviously have to consider that in this handicap. But I don’t like it as much if he does play. But I do think the Lakers are going to be very competitive tonight as long as we keep on seeing the same thing from them, which they have been consistent.
Lakers +5. Hopefully there’s some more camaraderie from this long road trip and they at least keep this game close.
Yeah, now I couldn’t talk you off that Chris as well.
Lakers are 3-0 straight up. And against the spread last three. 5-1 straight up. And against the spread last six. And 8-2 against the spread straight up and against the spread last ten games.
So they’ve been playing some of their best basketball of the season here Chris. Where the Cabs hadn’t really been playing well.
I follow this team very closely and they don’t really look like the same team of last year.
I know that Jarrett Allen’s in and out of the lineup. Garland’s starting to get back, used to playing with Mitchell since he was out for a while.
So that’s a good play by you Chris. I’m definitely rooting for you to cash. Definitely could see this one cash. And like you said you make it three this line open up at four maybe they know that Jarrett Allen’s in if he gets ruled in the line may not move too much here. So that’s kind of how the books do it sometimes if they know that. Obviously they have more info than we do so they probably know he’s coming back and that’s probably why this line is a little bit higher here.
But definitely rooting for my guy Chris there with the Lakers. Hope they keep it hot in this one. They do have a big game tomorrow. So let’s just say I hope that game goes to double overtime, let’s just put it that way. But I definitely hope you cash with the Lakers in this one, Chris.
Let’s go over here to the next game here. We’re going to the streets of Miami man, it’s really tough man. Unfortunately we have to talk about this team today but the Heat screwed me.
So I was telling people before the game yesterday. If this game didn’t cash, I don’t know what I’m going to do with myself. And we know what happened, they lost yesterday.
But in regards to that they’re land 8 and 1/2 here at the house versus the Detroit Pistons here. Laying -360 on the money line here. You can get back +285 if you’d like to go with the underdog Pistons in this one. Over-under sitting at 220 and 1/2 in this one, Josh.
What are we doing in this one? You still pissed off at the Heat or what? Like me, I’m livid with this team right now man.
Yeah man, I am too. I hold grudges. I’ll probably still bet them in the near future unfortunately, but I do hold grudges. That was a painful one particularly for myself and you guys as well. I’m pretty sure I got on at the 2 and 1/2 at the opener which just made the entire situation infinitely worse.
But look, let’s focus on this one; back home against Detroit. Jimmy Butler is out again for conditioning purposes, whatever that even means. Everyone else is on deck though so they should be fine I think in this spot.
Detroit sort of playing a different style of basketball over the past couple of weeks if you really look at it. Much faster paced up and down the floor. “Surprising”, I think is probably the only word I’d have for it just given that I expected them to be probably slower without Cade Cunningham and a little bit more deliberate.
But it seems to have gone the other way and Killian Hayes looks really good in that play-making role. Bringing the ball up to court as well and able to find guys in pockets, find the open big man in the paint.
So their offense has been very, very surprising. I actually lean towards the over here as a result of that I think they do try and push and they run.
We’ve seen Miami not just this season, not just last season, basically for a very long time now under Erik Spoelstra. Where they play on a back to back, they play up tempo and they play fast basketball, they look to execute their offense quickly, they don’t get stuck into those half-court grindey type of games.
Those are reserved for bigger showdowns and especially when they’re on more rest and they have that energy to give on defense.
Whereas I think flying back home in a situation like this against a team that’s going to try and run up and down the court, it just screams overs to me and my number is sort of 2 and 1/2 points above the market so it’s not necessarily a huge edge.
I just think that we’ve seen this play out many times before for the Heat and that would be the only suggestion I have on this game. Looking at the line, a little bit of line value towards Detroit here, not enough to want to take it or get involved. Like I said, Miami I think in this situation could get going offensively. They themselves will be pretty off with how yesterday went down as well. So I think that offensively they get going early and they keep their foot on the gas throughout the entirety of this one.
So maybe even a Miami team total worth a good look there as well. Might end up talking myself into something there. But I haven’t actually played anything here yet. They’re the only ways I would look.
Yeah, it’s some good points there Josh. Yo, you’re basically talking me into a Heat team total over there. You liking the Heat to bounce back and liking face and points [inaudible 00:11:21] you didn’t really have to care about the point spread with that one Chris. If you take the team total there. But probably the Heat probably bounce back here now that I’m not betting them, they probably bounce back and win this game by 15 points, Chris.
That’s usually how it goes. You see something happened the day before, everyone will like to, oh okay we’re taking Detroit then. Especially with Jimmy out. And then the Heat probably win this game by double digits. So how you looking at this game my guy? Chris?
Yeah, you’re onto something there Jay. I mean I figured out today, you know? Maybe if you’re a handicap for the NBA right now, you just kind of do the opposite of what makes sense half the time. Because that’s kind of the way things are right now. And to make matters worse on yesterday’s show I had a big rant about the heat and how they’re still a very formidable team because they just beat the Celtics in overtime on Friday night. Which is not something any team is doing right now by the way. Celtics in a tough spot last night and they still won.
But anyway, this is a tough one for me. I think Josh is onto something with the over because the Pistons do not thrive against teams with this style. They’re a bad defense against two point shooting teams. They’re a bad defense in the paint and that is where the Heat like to bread their butter so to speak.
But the Pistons are interesting lately. Over the last 12 games, about four weeks, they have only a minus four point differential, which means they’re keeping a lot of these games pretty close or they’re winning straight up.
And that’s against some good competition lately. Like the Suns, Celtics, Raptors, Cavs, Mavs. So the Pistons are kind of a little feisty right now. Obviously a tough spot for the Heat on the back to back, but they are at home. And what you just said Jay, right? I’m expecting the inevitable nonsensical thing to happen. So I’m not going to bet this game but slight lean towards the Pistons and I do think you guys are onto something with the team total and the over.
Yeah, no I’m right there with you. Not something I bet. We can expect that Jimmy Butler was going to be out his will guys just, I’ll give you something a quick nugget. When guys are out and in and out of lineup up and they just came back, they’re not going to play a back to back. So that’s something that you don’t necessarily have to wait on the line to move. They just come back and line up. They’re not going to force it play back to back.
That’s leaving you even more susceptible to another injury for the same injury or something else guys. So shouldn’t be surprised that Jimmy Butler is out in this game.
One more game up. Let’s go over here to the streets of Denver here guys. Fortunately we have an official play on the Detroit versus Miami game, but let’s head over here to the streets of Denver here.
We have the Nuggets here. Laying five points at the house versus the Dallas Mavericks here. Mavs coming off a huge win last night versus the Suns. If you’d like to go with the Mavs to get another huge win, they’re getting back +180 on the money line. Nuggets land -220 here. Over-under is sitting at 222 and 1/2 here, Chris. We’ll go right back to you here. You liking the Nuggets early in this my guy, let us know why.
Yeah, I’m going to take Denver in the first quarter. Obviously it’s a much better spot for Denver off of a little bit more rest. They’re at home.
And in two games against this Mavericks team, they did not find a lot of offensive success. They didn’t eclipse a hundred points in either one of those games. So I think point of emphasis for Denver tonight, especially off two losses where they didn’t look too hot, is definitely going to be on offense. And that’s where Denver thrives anyway.
It’s one of those teams where from an ATS perspective they’re pretty tough for me. They’re 11-12 against the spread this year. They’re 11-12 to the over.
So it’s just a lot of 50 percenters in there. Not a lot of, I guess consistently inconsistent. But they are the number one team in the NBA when it comes to field goal shooting percentage of 50%. 40% from three, 56% from two point land. And they are the number one scoring team in the first quarter and the number one offensive efficiency team in the first quarter in November.
So there’s a lot of reasons to like them starting off hot in this game, especially maybe for a spot for regression.
Obviously the Mavericks coming off a tough emotional good win last night against the Suns. The Mavericks played some really good defense, especially in the first half of that game.
But I think usually when there’s a point of emphasis like that in one game against an arch rival, maybe it’s a little bit less you kind of put your foot off the gas a little bit more or a little less so in the next game.
So I think Denver can thrive at least early in this one until maybe the Mavericks kind of apply that defense again.
Something to think about too though, Nuggets go to Portland tomorrow and that is a tough spot. And you’re going from Denver to Portland back to back. Portland’s always a tough spot. So maybe you think about Portland tomorrow, but I think the Nuggets have this game circled.
I mean they’re still number one in their division, they’re surviving somehow with a lot of good offense. So I think they have to lean on that tonight.
Yeah, I’m right there with you Chris. I like Nuggets here first quarter as well.
It’s the only thing that I could look at today. It’s a super small play for me, but Nuggets have been the second best team in the NBA. Scoring the basketball in the first quarter, scoring 32.3 points game in the first quarter and also point differential as well at the end of the first quarter +4.6 as well. That’s also good for the second best in the NBA, right behind Boston.
So the Nuggets are doing something right there. They can start off right with the offense but came out lackluster the past couple games as well. Lackluster ends.
They have the risk advantage off two losses and they faced off against Dallas twice already this year. But without their players I might add one of those games they did win outright as double digit underdogs. So Nuggets in the first quarter is the best look that I would have in this game, Josh.
You don’t necessarily have something on our plate, but we could still all cash in this one, Josh, let them know what you’re liking here.
We could, we definitely could.
I’m on the Dallas side of things for this one. I just think it’s too many points, plain and simple.
I understand it’s a back to back and a 3-4 but it’s not. Look the same back to back 3-4 that you know would penalize teams for.
When you look at how Dallas played those last two games against Phoenix, Luca played what, 29 minutes? No other starter played above 30 minutes.
You go back to that Nicks game, the exact same thing. Luca paid 29 minutes, no other starter played more than 30 minutes either that night either.
So it’s not like they’ve had to log too much effort I don’t think in those last two wins coming into this game.
So I think that their legs will be fine. I’m not worried about any massive fatigue that I normally would be in a situation like this, especially playing at altitude, I think they’re going to be just fine.
I think that the over adjustment for that is presenting value here on Dallas. As a result I have this closer to three than I do five. So the full game is a simple handicap in that regard for me.
But also I think the injection of life they’ve had from Tim Hardaway Jr joining this starting lineup can’t be denied. I mean you look at the last four games, the offense is absolutely humming again. Finally looking like the team that they were last season and a lot of that is what he brings in terms of spacing and shooting. And that affords Luca that extra, not just a shooter, but the extra attention that then needs to stay on the perimeter, gives him the space to operate inside. And that’s what makes him even more dangerous. Where he might not necessarily be scoring the same number of points but his efficiency through the roof.
And Dallas’s offensive efficiency as a result also jumping pretty sky high there.
So I like the matchup as well a lot for Dallas personally, I think KTP currently questionable. I think that could be a pretty big out if Coldwell Pope isn’t able to go, they’ve already had to inject Bruce Brown into the starting lineup because Michael Porter Jr’s out. They start to get really, really thin after that. The drop-off is pretty noticeable.
So that’ll just give Luca in particular a particular point of emphasis to attack on offense. And the second unit minutes I think become really brutal for Denver in that situation.
Where for Dallas, you’ve got Josh Crane off the benches, absolutely baller at the moment playing fantastic at both ends of the floor. I think Christian Wood can come in and have a lot of success in a matchup like this, especially if Denver want to try and roll out Deandre Jordan against him. Where you might have the size advantage but he’s just going to absolutely cook him offensively.
So that that’s a terrible matchup I think for Denver when that does come to eventuality.
The first quarter I do agree with you, obviously the Okage minutes are always just formidable for Denver. But I think that Dallas has a pretty noticeable edge in that second unit which normally you don’t say because I think the non-Luca minutes have also been a concern for them at times this season. But now that they seem to have their rotations a little bit more steady and a little bit more in check, we’re starting to see the difference in output from them there.
I also believe that the Dallas offense is just going to be situated so much that Denver’s going to have to keep pace. When you have a team that shoots threes and is not just the volume but the efficiency that Dallas does, it becomes really difficult for teams to keep executing their offense in the same way. They can often get drawn into trying to match them shot for shot and that’s just not what Denver is built to do at the moment, especially not with their injuries.
I do think there is a pathway for all of us to cash, but I’m just going to keep writing Dallas at the moment. I think they have turned a corner. I think they’re going to be a pretty valuable commodity in the marketplace in this next week or two as well. Now that they have pieced things together.
So first half look for me and a full game look for me on Dallas here. Like I said, I make this a three so if you’re have catching a five, that’s fantastic bit of value there. First half, I got a +2 and 1/2 there. I think you can get a three if you shop around as well or it’s currently available in most places.
Yeah, I couldn’t talk you off that as well. Dallas is definitely playing a lot better. Josh, it’s a good eye by you.
Tim Hardaway Jr, it’s what it is. He’s stepping in being somewhat like that. Jaylen Brunson where the Mavs have another ball handler.
So you have Luca, Dinwiddy and Hardaway Jr. So he’s stepping in, like I say, being that Brunson, they should have made their change a long time ago and it’s really helping out for them as well there.
So that’s a good eye by you Josh, with obviously, I mean with Okage playing 10 minutes out of the first quarter, we all could cash in this one. So hopefully we go 3-0 collectively in this one. Chris and I are on the Nuggets first quarter. Josh is on the Mavs in this one first half and full game. Cannot talk you off there, especially if KCP is out as well guys.
So that’s it, that’s the three games guys. Now let’s get to some Q&A here, Josh, rolling with the Mavs first half and full game. We rocked with the Nuggets first quarter in this one guys.
Now we got a question in the chat from my guy Julian here. He says, or no, this is from, not from Julian, from Things We Do. Sorry guys, that’s the producer.
“Do you guys use refs stats as a part of your handicap, Chris?
I’ve looked at that a little bit more in the playoffs, but that was like reluctantly.
No I don’t really look at refs that much, even though I admit some of these records that people post about the way teams do against particular refs can be pretty jarring. But I can’t bring myself to really consider that as part of the handicap.
Yeah, maybe later in the season. Right now. It’s not really something. But Josh, what do you think? Do you care about refs at all, my guy?
Unless it’s Scott Foster, refereeing Chris Paul, I don’t think anyone really cares too much about it.
It can be a really gray area and pretty subjective. I think if you really wanted to dive into it, you could probably start making cases either way there and it gets a little bit complicated. So I try and steer away from that and just stick to sort of things that are a little bit more black and white for me.
Yeah, I’m right there with you man. We like to look at trends, we like to look at actionable info. Sometimes the refs can really matter. That’s something that you maybe look at, but it’s not something that I take a play based off of just a ref status guys.
But that’s it for the show today, man. Only three games. Unfortunately, Tuesdays and Thursdays are the days that we have the least amount of games, but when we have three or four games, we will talk about every single one of them.
Now let’s go over our best bets for the show today my guys.
And let’s try to get this cash today, man. Coming off some BS yesterday. We trying to cash today, but Josh rocking with the Mavs in the first half and a full game. First half +3 and Mavs full game, plus the five. I’m taking, super small play for me, but I’m on Nuggets first quarter minus the 1 and 1/2.
Chris is also on Nuggets first quarter -1 and 1/2. And Lakers plus the five. A lot of great plays today on today’s card my guys, let’s get this cash. Let’s go undefeated one time for the one time.
I’m your host, Jay Money. That’s my guy Josh, that’s my guy Chris, as well. Make sure you follow us on Twitter, hit the like button, subscribe to the YouTube channel and check out our sportsbook website, all that good stuff man.
We appreciate everybody for tuning in. Free NBA picks. Monday through Friday BetUS TV. We back tomorrow guys.