Jay Money:
What’s up? What’s up everybody? Welcome to another show, man. The NBA show from BetUS TV. I’m your host, Jay Money. We have our guy, Josh, here with us today, AKA Punt School. We also have our guy, Chris Farley as well, AKA FarleyBets, my guy. So we’re always trying to get some cash, man. We’re here every day, Monday through Friday breaking guys off with our NBA picks for BetUS sports book, guys. Josh, how you doing today my brother? Is everything cool with you?
Josh:
Doing well, man. Doing well. Ticking along pretty decently. It’s been a rough season, I think on the whole for a lot of us, but we’re getting through it. I think we’re slowly piecing things together and doing what we can do. So hopefully more of the same today. And like I said, once the playoffs come around, it’s essentially a different sport altogether. So we’ll prep for that as well when the time comes, but certainly excited for it to come around.
Jay Money:
Yes, sir. It seems like around 10 to 12 more games here, Josh, before we get to the playoffs. So let’s try to get to some cash here. Chris, how you doing over there, my brother? Everything cool with you?
Chris Farley:
Everything’s great. Had quite a heater going on this weekend but yesterday, man, nothing went my way yesterday. Just couldn’t find the right angles. Just put in some live bets that didn’t work either. So looking forward to a new day in the NBA, guys. Let’s get some wins today.
Jay Money:
Hey, it’s a new day man. As we always say, it’s not not about yesterday, it’s about today, the present and the foreseeable future as well in this one, guys. So before we get into the games, let’s go recap our best bets for the year in this one, guys. A ton of plays between the five of us, 710 plays, my guys, total. We are sitting at 345 wins, 356 losses and then nine pushes as well, guys. So a ton of plays. We could be a lot worse. The way the season has going, it could be a whole lot worse than that, guys. So let’s try to get to some cash today, guys.
Want to let you know we are running 125% sign on bonus for this website, BetUS sportsbook up to $2,500. Also have all type of bracket contests as well. I believe we have a round of 16 bracket contests as well where you can win up to $10,000 in that one, guys. So make sure you’re checking this out, following the page on BetUS as well. But let’s get to some cash today here. We got four games, we’re going to talk about them, go over all the questions, props, all the good stuff in this one, man. So can’t wait to have a great show with you guys. Let’s get to the first game up in this one, guys.
It’s to the streets of Brooklyn in this one, guys. We have the Brooklyn Nets getting three and a half points at their house versus the Cleveland Cavaliers in this one, laying three and a half on the road. If you’d like to go to money line route, the Cavs are laying minus 150 on the road on the money line as the road favorite or you could go back with the Nets underdog here, home underdog getting back plus 130 in this one. Over and under is sitting at 218 and a half in this one. We know that Jarrett Allen practiced yesterday, guys, so while he is questionable, it looks like Jarrett Allen is probably going to come to play in this one, Chris. How you looking at this game, my brother? Cavs versus the Nets.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, exactly right. This game sets up pretty well for the Cleveland Cavaliers with Jarrett Allen probably coming back at the end of full practice Monday and they haven’t played since Friday, right? So this is a team who had all weekend to think about this game. It’s going to be a double header against the Nets, but I like Cleveland being able to limit the Brooklyn Nets because we’ve seen the Nets in the last few games come back down to Earth, barely averaging over 100 points per game. Of course they played Sunday too, so a little less time to get ready for this one and I think they might have a guy or two out. I’ve just been breezing through my day today, so I haven’t had a chance to look.
I know that Dorian Finney Smith is questionable tonight. If he doesn’t play, that’s another setback for their defense, but it’s about the Cleveland Cavaliers’ defense for me, guys. These Nets are still without a true number one on their team. Players like Mikal Bridges, they’re playing well. They’re able to hold up their offense mostly, but we see against good defensive teams sometimes or most of the time, I think that’s going to definitely take a step back tonight.
The Cavs are still chasing the Celtics and the 76ers and the Bucks in the playoff race, they’re going to want to keep on winning too and it’s a good set up with Jarrett Allen back for that rim protection. The Nets really shouldn’t have an answer on offense against those two bigs in the front court. So I like the… Excuse me, I’m trying. Nets team total under 55 and a half for the first half. One more quick stat too, the Nets are one of the worst pain scoring offenses in the NBA the past 15 games, only 34% of their shots from the paint. With those two Twin Towers down there, they’re going to have to make a lot of shots from the outside. I trust that Cleveland can really limit that today. So expect a low scoring game in this one.
Jay Money:
Gotcha. Gotcha guys, guys. The producer got to mute some. But no, I hear you there, Chris. That’s a good point as with Jarrett Allen as well coming back in there, it’s going to be really tough. We don’t know for a fact that he’s back in, but with him fully practicing and the line headed in the Cavs direction a ton, looks like Allen probably comes back in this one, my guys. I like that Net’s first half team total under from you and that one, we know that they like to hit a lot of threes, they like to shoot a lot of threes. So if they’re not making them here, they might not touch 50 points in this one here, Josh. We know that the Cavs are a top tier team as far as defensively as well here Josh, I’m leaning Cavs here, man. I didn’t take it here Josh, but I was leaning Cavs and I like Chris’s play there on the Nets’ first half team total under as well. How you looking at this game, my brother?
Josh:
Yeah, I haven’t played this game either but I agree with you entirely. I lean the Cavs as well. I think that’s the right side, for sure. I still think that they’re a little bit undervalued as a whole in the marketplace right now offensively. They are creating far better looks than I think what is actually showing up on the scoreboard most nights. And obviously, we know exactly how elite that defense is. The concern I think in this game, is purely the fact that like you said, the Nets are just going to start letting it fly from deep and that’s probably the best way to negate the Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley situation down low. And if they’re shooting 40%, 42% from deep, then we’ve seen this team put up upwards of 120 points in a game as well. So it could simply just come down to whether or not they’re making their shots from deep as to who covers the spread and whether this goes over the total or not.
But by my numbers, I have Cavs at about two and a half, so I was in line with the market opener. I have this at about 221, I think it was for the total off the top of my head. So a little bit of value towards the over, but I do understand and agree with the market coming down a little bit, like you said, just the fact that both these teams, the one thing you can rely on is their defenses in particular. Their offenses can at times be a little bit stagnant and go cold. So an easy pass for me, but I agree, I think the best way to look at it would be the Cavs here if I were to play anything.
Jay Money:
Yeah, no. It’s a good point there, man. I believe I saw it at one and a half last night as well, man. Opened up at two at most books, now it’s sitting at fours basically across the board there. A few three and a halves. So you not really missed the boat, right? Because if they win by five or six, it’s not a ton points but just like to get on that early line, like you said there, Josh. But any props we’re looking at in this one, Chris? Any prop looks in this game? We know that the Nets are going to shoot a ton of threes, maybe some Mikal Bridges. Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Dinwiddie, they obviously take the most shots for the Nets over there. Any prop looks in this game here, Chris?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, that’s what I would look at. As kind of the hedge too, right? I do see this game going under, but you do have two really good guards there in Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie, who are probably going to hold the bulk of the responsibility for their scoring tonight. Especially against the Cavs team that lets face it, their defense has been top 10 most of the season but sometimes on the perimeter, they can allow some open shots much more than the front court and in the paint.
So again with Jarrett Allen coming back, it seems like there’s just going to be a lot more open shots for those guys on the outside. So I don’t like a lot of props for this game. I’d actually look at some unders, maybe. Look at some unders for those bigs for the Nets down low, if you’re can even call them bigs, things like that. Because I do think this is going to be a slower paced game, a low scoring game and the Nets are still sixth in the Eastern Conference, so they’re fighting for the playoffs. Could be a future playoff matchup, could have that feel too as we near the post-season.
Jay Money:
That’s a good point. We also have LeVert on the calf side as well. He used to play for the Nets over there, Josh. What do you think about some LeVert? I know he was going bonkers there a few games, had a few 20 point games in a row. We’ll obviously have Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, but LeVert, we’ll always say the players have a little pep in their step when they’re going against their old team, Josh.
Josh:
Yeah, exactly. I like the Cavs guards in general. So that three guard rotation of LeVert, Mitchell, Garland, I think all three of those have the potential to be effective tonight. It might just be a case of trying to pick out which one. I like Evan Mobley to have a pretty big night as well. I think that’s the biggest mismatch on the floor for them. As good as Brooklyn are defensively, they just don’t have anyone with that sort of length and size, I don’t think, that’s going to be able to stick to him on the inside and stop him from getting to his spot. An Evan Mobley look for points, or points, rebounds, assists even probably a decent one for me if you wanted a prop in this game.
Jay Money:
That’s definitely a nice look there, Josh. But those are our looks on this game. Our guy, Chris is rocking with the Nets first half team total under 55 and a half in that one there, Chris. You’re definitely cashing that one. That’s a nice little lucky number right there, 555, you see what I’m saying? But let’s head over here to the next game in this one. I like to play, I like to play.
Let’s go over here to the streets of New Orleans here. We have the Pelicans here, laying 13 points at their house versus the San Antonio Spurs in this one, getting back plus 13 on the road. If you’d like to go the money line route, man, Pelicans are laying minus 850 on the money line as home favorites here. Or you can go back with the Spurs who not necessarily should they want to win but plus 570 here on the money line to get the outright win if you like the underdog here. Over and under is sitting at 231 in this one here, Josh. We’ll go to you first. We know you’re liking something in this one, both of us liking something. I think both of our plays are correlated here as well, Josh. We know you’re the undertaker, right? You definitely got on this one early, but you still liking it at the current number here, right? What do you like in Pelicans versus Spurs spot?
Josh:
Yeah, I got on this one early. It’s a big bet for me. I got under 235 and a half, so a little bit ahead of the market here at 231 now. Still a bit of value there. I mentioned it last night where this was a pretty big market edge for me. I’m almost nine points below the opener. So even still, I have about four points of value here. So I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily a bad bet at this point even though you have missed the bulk of the movement. But I just think that these are two teams who offensively, due for some regression, especially the Spurs. On the road as well. First game on the road after a long home stand. We’ve seen this team struggle on the road all season long. No Tre Jones is a pretty big deal for them, especially when there’s also no Jeremy Sochan. Those two guys have been very, very effective, very, very efficient lately offensively, especially Tre Jones when he’s not there, the Spurs offense just looks very jumbled. I think he does a very, very good job of running the point for them.
So like I said, San Antonio, a lot of regression expected there. New Orleans expected, I wouldn’t say regression because they haven’t been scoring particularly well but I don’t expect that to change too much either. I think their offense is what it is at the moment where they are a little bit jumbled, they aren’t particularly effective and efficient, and they are just going to have to lean on their defense to win them a lot of games. So even with this game projected to be a little bit higher than league average in terms of pace, I still can’t get anywhere near the current number either. I think both these teams probably do enough defensively to keep these comfortably under the total. And like I said, even with the big, big movement so far in the marketplace, my numbers are still showing a little bit of an edge towards the under. So this one a bit of a no-brainer for me. I’ll fade both these offenses and take that inflated total even still.
Jay Money:
Yeah, it’s always good when the market is moving in your direction as well, especially four points in this one, man. So I know the way I’m looking at it, Spurs might not touch a 100 points in this one. I think if it does indeed goes under which I think it will, Josh, it’s definitely going to be because the Spurs are in the high 90s in this one. Half their team is out, they have a game tomorrow in Milwaukee as well. So you can see them tapering off as the game goes on as well. Hopefully they don’t have any 30 point quarters in this one, but the Pelicans are a top tier defense type of team. They do struggle offensively as well. The offense gets really stagnant in this one. So give me Spurs team total under in this one. Chris, how you looking at this game, my brother?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, the Spurs have put up some numbers recently but look at the defenses that they’ve been facing. The Hawks have been allowing everybody to score. The Grizzlies aren’t really there. Certainly the Mavericks are letting everybody score lately, so this should be a much better spot for an under. And for a Pelicans team, you look back at this Pelicans team earlier this season and everybody was getting really excited about them. Right now, what are they? The 11th spot in the Western Conference, something like that. Out of the playoff picture. It’s just unfortunate and I’m not sure that they are.
Josh is the GOAT, I agree with that, Vincent. We’ve got a lot of positive affirmations on this show, I love it. But it’s just crazy where the Pelicans are and I don’t think that they quite deserve to be 13 point favorites in this spot. I’ll just say that. That’s a huge number, right? The Spurs, they’ll still fight in the first half, especially. This is a Pelicans team who lost to the Rockets recently and we know the Rockets can surprise some teams too, but the Pels, they got two easy games in a row. If they still care about this season, you think they’d take care of business here, that’s a much better spot for them. But it’s just a game I don’t like. I do lean towards the under with you guys. Spurs should have a really tough time scoring. Look at all the injuries they have. It’s like, where is it going to come from?
At the same time, if the Pelicans show up with any lack of motivation, maybe those Spurs are a little sneaky tonight. So I lean Spurs plus 13 and you like that when you have an under play as well. And I also lean to the under, but no plays for me.
Jay Money:
Yeah, I’ll be honest, I wouldn’t touch the Spurs here. I’ll give you guys some inside info. When they’re resting three or four guys, they’re literally telling you that they don’t want to win. They don’t have a center in there. They’re starting Mamukelashvili in that one, guys. So while I can’t say, there could be plenty of easy buckets for the Pelicans there down low. I do agree with Josh’s under, but that’s why I want to focus more on the Spurs team total under. I feel like they’re really going to struggle here offensively in this one. So I could actually see a 120 to 95 type of game in this one. This game could get ugly. The Pelicans need this game, they need every win. They play a lot better at their house and like I said, the Spurs with a game tomorrow, it’s not like they’re looking ahead to the Bucks. But when you’re resting four or five guys, literally just resting Sochan and Zach Collins, that tells you everything you need to know about the Spurs there. They want no parts of even staying close in this game, in my opinion.
So while it’s hard to trust the Pelicans in this one, line did open up I think around eight points. It’s moved five points for a reason in this one, man. You even see 13 and a halves out there, so don’t be a bit surprised to see the Pelicans smoke this team by 20 or 30 points. We could really see it. Spurs probably lay down here, give me their team total under 109, 108 and a half. Whatever you have to get, man. Spurs alternate team total under a 100 in this shit, man. I’m serious, man. And Josh also rocking with the under 231. I really do think the plays are correlated in this one. Like I said, 120 to 95 pelicans. That’s how I see this game rocking, my guys. Any player props here? Any player props here, guys, just before we move on, Chris?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, I was going to say if the book you’re using allows it and hopefully you’re using the BetUS sports book, try to take a prop early in the game. This is just one of those games right where Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, someone like Trey Murphy could have 10, 15, 20 points in the first half and then they don’t really score that much more because they don’t have to, right? So I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any props full game, especially scoring wise in this one. Maybe for the Spurs, look at like a Romeo Langford, Johnson or someone like that. But this is a really tough one for props, in my opinion.
Jay Money:
No, it’s a fact. I hadn’t seen any props, Josh. But sneaky look, Devonte’ Graham coming back to his old stomping grounds in New Orleans here. I can’t find the prop but obviously when the final rosters are set, I think he’s still questionable. Devonte’ Graham points is going to be a sneaky look in this one, Josh. Any thoughts on any props here before we get to the next game?
Josh:
Yeah, that was the only one I was going to say, basically just the fact that he’s in familiar territory and the fact that with San Antonio resting so many guys, he’s going to have a green light to take 15 to 20 field goal attempts as well. So if you do see them popping up, I think that has to be an autoplay just given the projected volume he’s going to have as well.
Jay Money:
Right there with you on it. I’m right there with you on that, Josh. Josh rocking with the under 231 official. Give me Spurs under 109 in this one, my guys. Like it all the way down to a 100 in that one, guys. Yeah, there we go. Pop those plays up, guys. Let’s get up here to the next game. Sactown here. We’re going to the streets of Sacramento here, guys. Kings here getting five points at their house versus the Boston Celtics in this one. Laying five on the road. If you’d like to go to money line route, the Celtics are laying minus 190 as a road favorite here on the Money line. Kings, you can get back plus 163 if you’d like to go with the Sacramento Kings to get the outright win here. Over and under sitting at 2 38 and this one, Chris.
Celtics obviously I feel like they’re in a good spot here today coming off two days’ rest, they’re coming off a game where they blew a 19 point lead as well. I’m looking for pissed off Celtics team here. I know it’s the last game of a six game road trip but you look at the Kings, horrible spot, in my opinion, man. Especially for a team that likes to run and gun. I know they’re a young team but five games in seven nights with four of those on the road flying cross country as well. I know it’s hard to fade the Kings and they’ve been taking people’s money but I have to take the Celtics in this spot. This is a team A versus team B. I don’t care what team is in this spot, I’d be taking the favor here, Chris. You have a play for us in this game?
Chris Farley:
I do, I do. Preach, Jay. I love everything you just said. Kings coming off a really hard fought game last night too against the Jazz, just scratching and clawing. And players like Malik Monk really exerting a lot of effort in that game. Obviously De’Aaron Fox holding the team on his shoulders, scored well over 30 points in that game, and Sabonis cleaning up rebounds all game. The game started off slow, they didn’t look very excited about it and then they got caught. They fell behind early, so they had to catch up the whole game and that’s the kind of energy they probably didn’t want to exert when they have a back-to-back. They have to go back home and here come the Boston Celtics who haven’t played since Saturday. So like you said, Jay, two solid days off.
The Celtics again, don’t play until Friday after this. So just a really cozy spot for Boston and a Boston team who has lost half their games in March. So Boston knows too, slipping a little bit. They’re back to second because the 76ers lost last night. But a Celtics team who obviously as we near the playoffs, they want to get right, they’re healthy heading into this one. Listen, maybe the Kings compete. I can’t say a lot of negative about the Kings. They flailed last night but throughout this road trip, tough spots, they have been stepping up time and time again. So maybe their offense does it a again, it’s just what they do. But I would much rather want to bet on the Celtics in any way that I can.
I bet them at minus four. I do like that line. I wouldn’t touch it at five. I think it’s pretty close to my numbers at this point, but the Celtics scoring a lot of points in this one really checks out. Probably a very tired Sacramento defense that really isn’t that good at all anyway. So I think the Celtics smash tonight. I agree Jay, I think it’s going to be pissed off and I like that for some early points in this game.
Jay Money:
That’s a good point in that one, Chris. So like I said, the Kings already don’t have the best defense, Josh, so I know that they’re a lights out offensive team but it’s a horrible spot. And when you throw in coming from altitude as well from Utah, I don’t think you can find a worst spot, man. What are we doing here, Josh? Do you like the C’s here or what?
Josh:
Yeah, I do like the C’s a lot here. My number came out at about five and a half but I don’t think that’s really capturing everything entirely because also the way my numbers work, it does take recent form into account and we’re talking about a Boston team that’s had a lot of players in and out of the lineup. So a lot of that recent form isn’t necessarily reflective of their best version of themselves either. You get Rob Williams probably back tonight, it seems. Not on the injury report. Al Horford back, that’s a huge improvement in itself from their last game where they were starting Blake Griffin and he had to play meaningful minutes in Utah. So this is an entirely different Boston team, I think, to the large one that we’ve seen for this current month. And like you said, the spot for Sacramento really doesn’t get any worse.
So back to back after coming off the road in altitude, now playing a five in seven against a well rested team who I think has a chip on their shoulder as well, to put in their best foot and effort tonight. So a healthy Boston team I think absolutely expected to win this one by a margin. I haven’t played anything yet but we’ll look to find some Boston angles here, I think as well. The total, I have it about three and a half points under current market. Obviously you don’t want to be taking an unders with the Sacramento Kings but if you were going to take an unders, I think a Kings team total under might be on the card here as much as they like to run and gun. This Boston defense is still top five in the league for a reason, and especially when you’re getting some pretty key pieces back at that end of the floor, they’re going to be very difficult to penetrate in the paint.
So for me, maybe a Sacramento team total under isn’t the worst look in the world. But Boston if you wanted to play the line is the only way I could recommend playing it.
Jay Money:
Yeah, I’m right there with you. I got it at five and a half as well, man. I like this up to five and a half, that’s my cutoff point for this one. But personally, I did bet minus four last night but I’ll still go minus five. This should be a double-digit win by the Celtics, the way I look at it. Usually, I like to take teams in the first quarter and first half here but the way that the Kings came out so horribly in the first quarter, first half yesterday, I do want to stay off that. But this is a full game spot, we’re over the full 48 minutes or longer, I expect the Celtics to come out on top and win this game by at least eight or nine points in this one, guys. So Chris, one more time, I know they’re going to pop it up on the screen but I don’t want to be… What was it first half team total-
Chris Farley:
Celtics team total over in the first half, 62 and a half I believe, that’s a really good line here at BetUS. You don’t get that many places.
Jay Money:
I like it, I like it. So give me the Celtics here, minus five. Hopefully Josh joins me as well. And then our guy, Chris, rocking with Celtics first half team total over 62 and a half in this one, guys. Let’s get some cash in this one, man. Let’s hit over here to the last game here guys. Go over here to the streets of LA here, we have the Clippers here, laying seven points at their house versus the Oklahoma City Thunder here, getting back plus seven on the road. If you’d like to go to money line route, Clippers are laying minus 270 at home as the home favorites here or you can get back plus 220 with the road underdog here with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over and under sitting at 238 and a half in this one, guys. This seems like a super high number, man. I know the Thunder Thunder get to run and gunning, but the Clippers have been playing some defense here lately. We’ll go to you here first, Josh. What do you think, the Undertaker? What do you think about under on this game, my guy?
Josh:
I can say I haven’t played the under in this game but yeah, that’s definitely the way that my numbers tell me you should be playing that total for sure. I’m at about 233 I think it is. 233 isn’t the total that I make it. Like you said, as much as the Thunder like to play at pace, they do so a lot more at home than they do on the road as well, and I’m not sure that they’re going to be the ones that dictate the pace and tempo of this game. So I do lean that way but for me, I’m taking the points of the Thunder here. I don’t know how this is at seven now. I think this should be closer to four. This current numbers suggest that the Clippers would be favored by about four and a half on a neutral court. That doesn’t seem right to me at all, not the way the Thunder are playing. Not the way they match up, I don’t think either with the Clippers I think that their offense is going to be able to do a pretty good job.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against his old team, he is someone who is going to cause a lot of issues in terms of being able to penetrate the paint, get inside, collapse that Clippers defense. The same as Josh Giddey does the exact same thing. Once you put pressure on the Clippers defense in that regard, it opens up obviously the perimeter in a pretty big way for them as well. So I think the Thunder offense is going to be able to execute what they want and get to their spots essentially. And defensively, I think they are still undervalued a little bit in the marketplace. They’re not going to get destroyed on the inside the way that they do against some of these teams who have high scoring, high usage possessions from their big men in the center positions. As good as Zubac is, as good as Plumlee is off the bench, they’re not guys that are necessarily going to be touching the ball enough to really hurt the Thunder in meaningful ways.
So like I said, I disagree with the market movement here, I don’t think that it should be going up. I think it should be coming down. My number is closer to four for this game and I still think the Thunder a little bit undervalued in the marketplace, which is strange to say when you consider the fact that they are the best ATS team in the league.
Jay Money:
Nah, it’s a good point, man. It’s crazy because the Clippers as well might be a little mispriced here. I feel like they were playing a lot worse than most of the season. They are starting to pick it up though, guys. The Clippers are buckling down, they’re locking up on defense. The offense is really starting to pop as well. So I’ll be honest, man, I’m scared to fade the Clippers right now. Chris, what do you think about this game? You agree with Josh here, Thunder plus a seven or any looks on the total here?
Chris Farley:
I really wanted to take OKC in this game. I don’t know if the Clippers deserve a seven point edge at this point but they have been playing better and the figures. Right when I throw the Clippers in the trash as a betting companion, they start to play better. They start to look better on defense. But that’s okay. This is one of those games where Thunder beat this team way earlier in the season twice. So maybe there’s a little bit of revenge energy for the Clippers in this one. Obviously they want keep on winning in this and they are the better team.
But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably going to want to go off again in this one. Scored 33 points and 24 points and two games against them previously and I don’t see a lot of other players have any success. The problem with that too is that his points prop is pretty high, 31 and a half is what I’m seeing at most books. So it’s a pretty good number. I don’t know if I feel great about going over it, although the bulk of the offensive responsibility is going to be on him for sure and he’s going to take it. He’s passing the ball around a lot less since he came back, scoring a lot more, shooting a lot more, and I’m sure he is going to do that a lot more in this game as well. But seven is about right. I have this at six but the Clippers can certainly cover this line with the way they’ve been playing, especially on defense. Also have the total at 230. So I agree, it’s a little too high.
But anytime I’ve seen the market go this much against me, it’s just a red flag for me. So I don’t want to play against it. And maybe this is a game where the Clippers can work on their offensive chemistry as well because it hasn’t exactly been there consistently either.
Jay Money:
That’s a great point. I’ll be honest there. You mentioned the SGA prop. I feel like they have no chance to cover this game if SGA doesn’t go over 31 to half points. I feel like if you like the Thunder, that’s correlated with SGA going over 30. If he doesn’t go for at least 35 here, I think they lose here by double digits, guys. So that’s just the way I look at the game. Our guy Josh is rocking with the Thunder here, plus the seven though official in this one. Nothing official for my guy Chris or for me or Chris in this one. So Josh going with Thunder plus the seven in this one. Couldn’t talk you off. I didn’t bet the Clippers, my guys. So I hope you cash definitely for the show purposes as well, my brother.
Let’s get to some questions in this one, guys. We broke down our four top games now we have some great questions in the chat. It’s time to get to some Q&A in this one, guys. Our guy, F Erker in the chat is saying, “Any leans on Wizards Magic Total?” My Guy, come on my brother. We didn’t talk about that game for a reason, my guy. Don’t bet that game. But Josh, obviously you make your numbers and stuff with the total, what do you think, my guy, on this game?
Josh:
Yeah, I have it at 224, 224 and a half. So a little bit of value to the under. I did like the under at 227 initially, so the market agrees and moving that way as well. This is a bit of a flat spot for Orlando coming back off a West Coast trip, you can imagine them being pretty sluggish offensively. The Wizards offense has been going through some regression and rightly so. I think it might even still continue yet. So the under is definitely the only way I would play it. I just don’t have a particularly big edge there.
Jay Money:
Any thoughts on this game, Chris?
Chris Farley:
I would just look at Porzingis props, perhaps. Kuzma is going to be out of this game. His point total is pretty low, around 23 and a half. He’s going to have to take more of the bulk of responsibility on offense for the Wizards in this one. And this is a game where they should be able to score. The Magic have not been as good on defense since the All-Star break. A lot of aggression we saw there and it is a tough spot for them. So I like maybe a Wizards team total or Porzingis. This is a good spot for them to feel better about themselves but it’s not anything that I love.
Jay Money:
Nah, it’s a good point man. Porzingis is just soft to me man. I call them paper plate Porzingis, man. One thing the Magic do have, they do have three guys down low that are 6’10” or greater over there. I always say that. And Mobley… Is it Mosley or Mobley? One of them, man. But he’s a great defensive coach as well. It’s something is Moe. We’re going to call him coach Moe. How about that?
Josh:
Jamahl Mosley, yeah.
Jay Money:
Mosley, yeah. I’m like, “Damn.” I’ve got Evan Mobley probably in my head, man. But I couldn’t talk you off the under in that one. It’s just such a quirky type of game, man. Don’t bet that game. Next question up. Incantorious London, guys. What about the over in this Kings game, over 238? My guy, we just broke that down before you asked that question as well. We’re liking the under. I know we’re looking towards the under in that game. I know Josh was looking at maybe a Kings team total under this in one. Chris, what are your thoughts on this one?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, the reason why I do like the over is because of like I said, the lethargy that the Kings should have tonight after last night. So you’re going to see them more tired on defense and the Celtics, where they really regressed a little and of course they are dealing with a lot of injuries in Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown at certain points in March, but it has been their offense that regressed a little more than their defense. So I think this is an opportunity for them to show out. So again, a full game, I don’t know. Celtics could put down the clamps and then we do see this game go under but I chose the Celtics team total over in the first half for a reason, and I think that could elevate the entire total, right? Because if the Celtics are going at a high pace and attacking the Kings, the Kings are going to do the same thing right back to the Celtics. But that being said, it’s a high total. So I think the number’s about right for me.
Jay Money:
Robert Williams back in this one, I could only look towards the under. Josh, do you agree?
Josh:
Yeah. Like I said, I was about four, four and a half points under the current market price. So I would only lean that way. It’s obviously an uncomfortable bet to make, which is why I haven’t made it just given the way that the Kings can play and the lack of defense that they do have still. But that’s why maybe a Kings team total under just with like you said, with Robert Williams back, with Al Horford back in the lineup. Marcus Smart’s healthy again. Maybe that is the best look if you wanted take play any sort of total in this one.
Jay Money:
Yeah, that’s a good point about that Kings game total.
Chris Farley:
I’ll say this, watch out for a bonus tonight because he was just passing on every single shot. I don’t know what that was all about. Maybe he was trying to rest his shot before this Celtics game but he’s not going to succeed a lot in the paint against Robert Williams. But he’s an outside shooter too, right? So he could get some looks in this one and those guards for the Kings last night really exhausted themselves. So I think there’s going to be a little more responsibility for him.
Jay Money:
That’s a great point there, Chris. Pretty fishy if Sabonis is not even taking any shot. Seems pretty fishy to me, my guys. But next question up, Javi Ramirez, “Thoughts on Tatum over or Kawhi over 28 and a half.” Josh?
Josh:
Yeah, I couldn’t talk you off either one of those. Kawhi probably going to get a pretty decent matchup against this Thunder team that if they do have an achilles heel, they don’t have a ton of wings to throw. Lu Dort probably going to spend most of the time on him, but I think Kawhi still gets his, especially the way he’s playing at the moment and Tatum will get the volume as always. And the biggest weakness on that Sacramento team is the lack of wing defense at the moment as well. So both those guys have pretty favorable match-ups. I couldn’t talk you off either one of those over.
Jay Money:
Gotcha, gotcha. Chris, what do you think about Pistons money? I’d like to just answer this quick but I ain’t going to even do them like that. What do you think about Pistons money line plus 750, man?
Chris Farley:
Oh boy, oh boy.
Jay Money:
Come on, man. Be serious.
Chris Farley:
The only reason why you’d like that I think is because the Hawks have been incredibly disappointing at times, right? So it’s not beyond the realm of possibility but there’s nobody playing for the pistons. They’re hitting a lot of unders, they’re not covering these games. So you talk about full white flag give up mode, that’s what the Pistons are in right now. Is there a shot? Sure. But I think there’s a better way to spend your money. Even to sprinkle on something like that if it seems very unlikely to win, it’s probably better off spent somewhere else.
Jay Money:
Going to go out on a limb and say the Pistons have no shot at winning tonight. They don’t even want to win. We could start there. These are tanking teams, it’s the craziest shit ever. They don’t want to win.
Chris Farley:
Now they’re going to win, Jay. Thanks.
Jay Money:
It’s like saying the Spurs, take the Spurs money line tonight when they’re literally resting guys on purpose, man. Play a lottery ticket or something. The hawks are not losing to the Pistons here coming off a game where they just lost to the Spurs. It’s not happening. I’m sorry, my guy. Last question up.
Chris Farley:
Jay, if the Pistons are watching this show, which is very unlikely, but if they are, you just ignited them. So I don’t know.
Jay Money:
Saddiq Bey himself will make sure that the Hawks will not lose to the Pistons. I guarantee you. Look at Saddiq Bey props if you like something, look at Saddiq Bey over his three point mades and over his points prop in that one. He will make sure that they’re not losing to the Pistons tonight. I never guarantee shit, but Hawks money line is a lock tonight. Now how about that shit, man? Last question up, guys.
Chris Farley:
They’ve also been double digit underdogs a few times in a row now and they’re still not covering. So that should tell you something.
Jay Money:
They don’t want to win, man. I think it’s pretty simple, guys. But what does Josh use for his total looks? Josh, I think it’s a question specifically for you.
Josh:
Oh, yeah. Man, I won’t take too much time here. Maybe I’ll just do a separate video.
Chris Farley:
Show your screen, Josh. Let’s see the Excel, let’s see the spreadsheet.
Josh:
I’ll do a separate video for this one.
Jay Money:
Don’t give them everything.
Josh:
It’s combining a few things. It’s putting a little bit more weight on recent form versus season form using adjusted offensive defensive ratings as opposed to their raw ratings, just to give a better idea of how they actually perform versus certain opponents. And then obviously looking at recent form, their shot quality as well. Their projected and expected points versus what they’re actually doing to help give an idea of which teams are expected to regress at both ends of the floor. But we’ll leave it at that because otherwise it can become its own topic in its own right.
Jay Money:
Now, you can’t give him too much of your sauce. How about this, Vincent? Come and watch this show for Josh’s looks. He also has a separate show as well where he breaks it down even more. Sometimes, you got to keep some of the secret sauce just to keep the people coming back to you. See what I’m saying?
Josh:
You’re right. Yeah, you’re right.
Jay Money:
So that’s it for the questions, guys. Let’s go over here and go over our best bets for the show, man. Great show with my guys, Josh and Chris. We talked out all four of the games. We talked out our plays, we answered some questions. We even talked about a lottery ticket in there, man. But our guy Josh got the Spurs here, Spurs-Pelicans under 231 and that one is still showing value even though it’s come down four points. He’s also rocking with the Thunder plus seven in that one. Give me Spurs team total under 109, I believe it’s also correlated with Josh’s under play as well. I do not see the Spurs getting over a 100 points in his game. Give me Celtics here minus the five here as well, guys. I know the Kings have been darlings but if you don’t like the play, you don’t have to take it man. You can take the Kings.
Chris rocking with Nets first half team total under 55 and a half in that one with the lucky number and he’s also going with Celtics first half team total over 62 and a half in that one, guys.
Great show, man. Great plays. Let’s cash every single one of these things, man. You got to start building this record up for this one, guys. So we appreciate everybody for tuning into the show. Make sure you guys are following us on Twitter, I’m sure all of us have a lot of things going on as well. So check us out and check out BetUS sports book as well. Sign up bonus, March Mayhem tournament bonuses, all that good stuff, man. We always trying to get some cash. We will be back tomorrow, guys. Hope everybody has a great day, we’re out.
