Chris Farley:
Yes, yes, first half.
Alex Christensen:
Skee, it looks like you have got, you and I are sort of going against each other. I want Arizona State team total over. You have got, who is this? Nevada +2. It’s all very fun. Are you excited for the tournament and who’s going to win?
Skee Profit:
Yeah, I’m excited. I mean, I’m just like you, I’m not a big college guy all year long. There’s a few teams that I follow, mostly UCLA, Houston, those are my two favorite teams, so I’m biased. I think those are the two best. We’ll see. I’m more of a day-to-day handicapper. I’m going to look at what these teams have been doing, reach out to some people who I know are very knowledgeable in college and I’m glad that I’m off to a good start with the 1-0 with Pitt last night.
Alex Christensen:
I like that quite a bit and yeah, it’s like you said, we don’t really follow this too much as I go through, there’s a lot of big ones, but the one team that I’m picking in huge pools, because if you’re doing a big bracket pool, a lot of this is game theory. You don’t necessarily want to be taking the teams everybody else and, so my wild NBA picks this year is Creighton. Creighton’s going to win the stinking title. Give me a six seed for the champion. It’ll be fun, but make sure you follow all of us on Twitter and follow that contest. It’s really a lot of fun. And again, if you haven’t signed up for BetUS already, go to bet us tv.com/I think it’s just signup or join and you can find a bunch of different offers there, but we’re here to talk about the NBA so let’s finally get into that.
As always, we’ll start with the look at our best bet record. Again, hovering right around .500, still trying to find our way back to that after a rough start to the season. Chris doing a great job. He’s 10 games over .500. Let’s continue to push forward, talk about tonight’s games and see if we can get some more wins. First up here, the got to be the best game on the slate. The Cleveland Cavalier play the Philadelphia 76ers, not the Hornets there, but you can see it correct on this graphic. The Cavaliers two and a half point underdogs at home, the money line +120, the total 222. And Chris, you like the side here and I want to like this side, so talk to me, sell it to me. Come on. I want to buy it.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, yeah, we’re just getting a really nice number on the Philadelphia 76ers here and obviously they’re on the road but the Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be without Jared Allen tonight. It looks like he’s out again and we know what a difference he makes in the front court when it comes to rebounding, rim protection and of course scoring as well. That two-headed monster that they have down low is one of the key reasons why the Cavaliers are one of the best defenses in the NBA. Without him in there, the experience that he brings, that’s a big deficit where you’re about to go up against Joel Embiid and a very healthy 76ers team who again, they’re kind of quietly surging again, five games in a row they’ve won. Some tough spots the past week too and road games that a lot of teams in the NBA we’re seeing now are kind of not playing consistently.
76ers are playing consistently and their defense has been very consistent all year, but lately it’s their offense that’s been guiding them, a top 10 offense over the last week. Obviously these are just two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but right now the way these two teams are playing, I really like what the 76ers are doing. I like that they’re flying under the radar and I love that the Cavs played last night in the game at Charlotte, which was probably a little more difficult for the Cavs than it should have been. They still won by margin, but the Hornets kind of hanging around in that game. They probably had to exert a little bit more energy than they had to. I don’t think Donovan Mitchell’s going to be out today. He should be back in for the Cavs, but that’s a good thing and he didn’t play yesterday so he comes in rested but better spot for me for the 76ers at a low number here, one possession game. I’ll take a minus two and a half.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, brutal schedule spot for Cleveland three and four back to back first came home after a four game road trip so a check in a lot of those boxes that way. Came out pretty close to my number. I mean Cleveland has been so good at home, it’s hard to handicap some of these games, but Skee, what do you think?
Skee Profit:
Yeah, Cleveland has been really good at home but they’re going to be without Jared Allen here. I’m not sure if Jonathan Mitchell cleared the injury report if he’s for sure in tonight or not, but I think Allen is a big miss going up against Joel Embiid, especially in a nationally televised game where he can try to make a case for MVP. So I think he’s the guy to bid on. His point prop last I check was 32 and a half. I mean wouldn’t be surprised if he has 40 points tonight and if I’m liking the Sixers or backing the Sixers, he’s going to be a big part of why they have success. It’s also two days rest for the Philadelphia team compared to back to back for the Cavaliers. So only way I could play this one is Sixers or Embiid.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I like that quite a bit. And you can see Vince Hawkins here, he likes the Embiid props. Yeah, he should be able to kind of overpower some of these guys as good as they could be defensively. He certainly finds away against some of these bigger guys, but should be an absolutely great game. We’ve got a couple guys that lean towards the Sixers. I’ll be cheering hard for the red, white and blue and Chris will actually be man enough to lay the points. He’s got Sixers minus two and a half against the Cavaliers tonight.
Let’s jump into another game with a team from, we’ve got a home right here from the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Houston Rockets. The Lakers, just three and a half point favorites on the road against a Rockets team that is somehow winning basketball games despite their best efforts. The Rockets +130 if you like the dog at home, the total at 231 and Skee despite the Lakers playing some of the best defense of any team this season in the last couple weeks, you think these two teams are going to put up a big number tonight, huh?
Skee Profit:
Yeah, I mean they went over last night and they’re going to be without their defensive anchor and Anthony Davis, he’s the best help side defender and just the rim protector for this team. You look at the last two seasons, Lakers are 60% to the over when he is not on the floor. If you look at this season when the Lakers are on the back to back without Anthony Davis, they’re also six and one to the over and I know they have some new additions, some new players, but since that trade deadline, the one game they did have did go over. So it’s just Vanderbilt great individual defender. It is just, I don’t see the backup for him in this one. You have him, you have maybe Schröder who can harass some of these guards, but the paint is going to be open and if Houston can just do a little bit of their part, both teams playing at a top five pace last five games, I think these teams are going to put up at least 235 plus.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. You remove Davis, it really is the only rim protector on the team because Skee, I don’t know who Wenyen Gabriel is, but is he a good rim protector?
Skee Profit:
He’s not as good as Anthony Davis by any means.
Alex Christensen:
Be hard to. Yeah, tough game to handicap, like you said without the stars out. I think that’s definitely a good angle and I think the market is sleeping a little bit here on the Davis injury. Again, as much as he does remove some offensive talent, we’ve seen the Lakers, these guys are going to have a lot of fun tonight. It’s going to be D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Schröder with Austin Rivers just running up and down the floor. What do you think of this game, Chris?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, I think this is a really good spot for the Lakers actually. Rocket’s coming off that win against the Celtics and we’ve seen that from the Rockets lately. They can put up some numbers. Again, some exciting young players on that team and I think in some cases when they’re not going for a better lottery pick they like to put it all together and try to beat a really good team, but I don’t think they’re going to do that tonight coming off that win last night against the Celtics. It’s a back to back for them obviously. And this is, I’m never an advocate for resting players, but Anthony Davis, this is about as good of a spot as any to put him on the sidelines and let the Lakers ancillary players, all their other contributors really put together a good game here and continue to grow together.
There’s a lot of positive sentiment over there in Lakers country from LeBron James saying that he loves the team so it’s a low number. I know they don’t have their best player on the floor and Anthony Davis has been playing really well, but the core of the parts of the Lakers right now were also playing really well together and it’s why they’re one of the better defenses in the NBA lately. So I definitely lean LA. Didn’t want to take it just because Anthony Davis is out and the Rockets can surprise people but definitely lean to the Lakers. No real play on the total though. I do think the number’s right.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, let’s take it over tonight. Skee likes the over in this Lakers Houston game, the number there, 231 points.
Let’s jump into the next game. The Boston Celtics visit the Minnesota Timberwolves. Boston in the middle of a couple game road trip here. They’re five point favorites on the road, -205 on the money line and the total here at 233 and a half. And I love this spot for the home team. This is two teams really kind of moving in a different direction. I mean the Celtics just lost to the Houston Rockets for God’s sake on Monday night. They’ve been losing games now. I mean it went from blowing teams out, winning close games, struggling to cover big numbers. Now they’re losing at this point.
You look at Minnesota, they’re going completely the other way. I mean ever since Conley came in, it seems to have smoothed things out. Anthony Edwards has finally taken control of this team as a leader. They’ve been great at home. I know Gobert is listed questionable every night, but he plays anyway. So just really like this spot for Minnesota at home against this team and the Celtics that have been struggling, especially on the road. I have this closer to two and a half, three so happy to take the five points here. Skee, you’ve got a couple other angles for us.
Skee Profit:
Yeah, and it just makes me happy I have to say to hear that you like the Timberwolves because I’m rooting hard against the Celtics for the remainder of the games they have left. Just lose three more for me, please, just three. This game, I like a couple of player props. If I’m betting anybody from the Celtics side, it has to be Al Horford over his one and a half three pointers. He’s hit 30, he’s hit two plus 35 out of 54 games, which is 64.8% and he’s also cleared this in seven of his last eight games. He’s a 45.3% three point shooter on the season going up against a Minnesota team who’s 24th defending the three. So I think that matches up well, especially with Gobert on a little bit of a tender ankle, ankle sprain. I don’t think he’s going to want to run out there to the three point line and run back to rebound all game. I think Al Horford will have a couple of extra open looks tonight. So I like him for the Boston side.
And for Minnesota, I like Anthony Edwards over his three and a half assist after that, sorry, excuse me. After that Brooklyn game, the coach for Minnesota, coach Finch was, everything nice they said about Anthony Edwards as far as him scoring and things he was doing, he was like, yeah, that’s good, but he needs to start distributing the ball. We’re a much better team where he is getting others involved. He said when he has two assists, it’s not good enough. He has to do better than that. And what did he do? He came out and had five assists in the last game. He had five really by the third quarter, so I think that continues. He averages 4.8 assists at home through 36 games so far the season and he’s cleared or he is hit four plus and 59.4% out of his 69 games played. So two props in this one, Anthony Edwards over three and a half assists, Al Horford over one and a half three pointers made.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, I like both of those looks quite a bit. Chris, any thoughts from you on this game?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, just a little line evaluation. Now, if this is another part of the season even on the road, there’s no way the Celtics are only going to be five point favorites in this spot. But to both of your points, these teams are going in the opposite directions right now and I wouldn’t want to play on the Celtics here and it’s a tricky number because it’s right between that two to three possession number, -5. It feels about right. But I couldn’t bet on the Celtics the way they’re playing right now. I believe they lost three of the last five games, maybe four of the last five games. Timberwolves definitely putting some things together. I think the veteran leadership from Conley makes a big difference now that he is really integrated into their rotation. Love what Skee said about Anthony Edwards, I mean that guy is just such a teachable player. Every team wishes that they had someone like that on their team. So you instantly see the improvements from them. They are at home. So I lean to the Timberwolves.
I mean, that’s a ton of value on the Timberwolves in this play. It’s just any second, the Celtics who are obviously still the better team could start to put it all together because they’re going to lose sight of any chance at that number one seed as we go down the stretch here if they continue to lose in that manner. Thank you very much Mark Holmes. I appreciate it. And one other thing I’ll say is I lean to under in this game, both of these teams playing top 10 defensive efficiency lately, especially as the Celtics just look a little clunkier on offense. So lean to the under. I think it could be more of a dog fight than we think and lean to the Minnesota Timberwolves
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, like those leans. I’m going to bet the Timberwolves, I’ll take the points +5. A couple player pops here for Skee. We’ll start with Anthony Edwards over three and a half assist and also Al Horford over one and a half three pointers made, a three pack for you there.
Let’s jump into the next game. The Sacramento Kings, your number two seed in the West Sacramento Kings. One point favorites on the road in Chicago. The total sits at 237. Give me the home team here. I really like the way the Bulls have been playing basketball the last couple weeks. The changes in the starting lineup, bringing Caruso in, allowing Patrick Williams to play a little bit more of a secondary role has really unlocked a lot for this basketball team. They’ve been playing much better the last couple weeks. If you start to look at their numbers, they might actually be able to push up into the playoff spot. And again, it’s a lot of those changes.
As much as Patrick Beverly maybe isn’t the best starting point guard or really someone you’re excited as your starting point guard, it’s nice to get Ayo Dosunmu back on the bench. Again, Caruso may be a little short in that starting lineup with him, LaVine and DeRozan, but gets Patrick Williams to the bench playing against guys that he’s a little more comfortable going after him. I had the home team here. It is almost three point favorite. So whether you want to take the money line, you want to take plus one point is basically no difference at this point. So I like the Bulls here quite a bit. I’m going to take Chicago. What’s say you, Christopher?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, I agree. I love that you’re taking Chicago here. The Kings played last night, right? You got to forgive my timing answering this stuff, but-
Alex Christensen:
Monday.
Chris Farley:
Monday, Monday, okay. Yeah, well the Kings are just, what’s that?
Alex Christensen:
Today is Wednesday.
Chris Farley:
Today is Wednesday. Yeah. Trust me, all time will be nebulous in similar situations, but yeah, Kings are surging right now, right? They are just proving that they can stay in these games against elite teams even though they lost against the bucks the other night, you kind of like the moxie that they had in that one. So they’re kind of at the height of their powers right now. You would think you’d want to take them and yet this line is very small and I think it makes sense. The Bulls are a really good mid-range defense in particular. The Kings like to take a lot of shots from there, obviously like to run and transition as well. And the Bulls, especially defensively, have been much better with Caruso and Beverly in that rotation as starters, especially when they’re out there.
I think it’s a great spot for the Bulls. I don’t think they’ve played since Sunday either of my memory serves me correctly. So it’s just a comfier spot for them. And hey, we’ve been saying it on this show all year. Unlike last season, the Bulls are playing really well against good teams, against exceptional teams. For some reason, they mail it in when it comes to the crappier teams in the NBA. So everything points toward a Chicago win. But boy, those kings have been awfully feisty lately. So I’m just going to hang back and watch this game. But I do lean balls,
Alex Christensen:
I like it. What do you think here, Skee? Who gets the W tonight?
Skee Profit:
I think the Bulls are the right side here and I’m honestly probably going to get there right after the show. I think you’re not giving Patrick Beverly enough credit. Besides the Lakers everywhere that he goes, I feel like he makes those teams better. You look at the Timberwolves, he had them playing hard, bought in, everybody over there. The Clippers, I feel like were better than they are right now when he was over there. And the Chicago Bulls team, this is a team that if you were to look at the body language for them going into the All-Star break, they didn’t even want to be out there. They want the season to end immediately.
Now that Patrick Beverly’s been over there, showing, playing hard, showing that he wants to win, pumping guys up over there, all of a sudden it’s a little bit different. You have Zach LaVine being more aggressive, playing a whole lot better himself. And I listened to the post game interview, I heard him giving some credit to Patrick Beverly, just a [inaudible 00:17:32] of the things that I’m saying as well. So I think he’s gotten this team back on the right track. I think it’s a little bit of a buy sign on them. I mean they don’t have a winning record this year going. They’re 31-36 going up against the King’s team who’s 40-27. But the Bulls opened as a short favorite. I think that’s pretty telling. I think they’re the right side tonight.
Alex Christensen:
I like it when I’m right and I’m wrong at the same time. As long as I’m right about the Bulls winning tonight, all due respect to Patrick Beverly. I’ll retract that statement if need be. So one pick here, I’m going to take the Bulls +1. You can take the money line if you want, really like Chicago tonight at home.
One more game here. If you got any questions about anything else, go ahead and dump them into the chat. We’ll get to them quickly. But first the Dallas Maverick’s four and a half point favorites on the road in San Antonio. The total right around 227 and a half. No Luka Dončić, maybe no Kyrie Irving, but who cares Chris, we like the Mavs anyway.
Chris Farley:
Did you just say no Kyrie Irving?
Alex Christensen:
Questionable.
Chris Farley:
Questionable. Okay, I was going to say do not drop that news on me on this show, Alex. Yeah, I like this from a purely motivational point spot for the Dallas Maverick. So the ninth seed in the Western conference now, I believe. I’m just questioning everything I know because my lack of sleep lately. But anyway, this is just a good spot for them. The Spurs played last night, the Spurs won that game against the Magic. Spurs, actually sneakily won three of their last four home games. Again, a team like the Rockets where they have young players, they’re kind of showing out in some of these games at the end of the season, working on their chemistry. That all sounds good, but the Dallas Mavericks need to win this game. I mean, they need to get right.
Luka Dončić is coming out in the media too and saying how their defense needs to improve. And it’s funny coming from Luka because usually it’s Luka and now it’s Kyrie who can be a liability on defense. But this is one of those games where they can put it all together. Jason Kidd should come with a good game plan because it matters more to the Mavericks at this point who are still chasing the playoffs, who still believe that they can man make a dent in the playoffs, especially after what they did last year. The fact that this line is a solid two to three possession line says it all because they’re still on the road, it’s still a spot where maybe they would be at a disadvantage, especially without Luka, but it’s a short trip over to San Antonio.
Like I said, the Spurs won last night, we can’t count on them having full effort. So even if the Spurs are feisty early, I could see them fading late in that game. Kyrie Irving could have a big game tonight if he does play. I know Mark just said he’s out. I’m not seeing that he is out on the sources that I’m looking, but this is still a Dallas Mavericks team that can put it together from other core contributors, players like Tim Hardaway, et cetera, really focused maybe more on defense in this game. So I’m going to shoot forward, go over the Mavericks at a shorter number of minus four and a half.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, the Spurs again, not trying to win games somehow getting a couple done here. So great spot, like you said, motivationally here for the Mavericks. Should be able to beat up on a team kind of who and really isn’t trying to win no matter who is playing. So Skee, what do you see in this match up?
Skee Profit:
This was Molly’s favorite game of the day. Just a Spurs team who doesn’t want to win, who’s terrible. A Dallas team who I’m not sure who’s going to be out there playing, the Kyrie news, et cetera, et cetera. I know I’m not taking the Spurs so it’ll be Dallas or pass and I don’t think either one of these teams is good defensively so it’ll be over or pass. I choose to pass.
Alex Christensen:
I also choose to pass, but Chris, he’s brave enough, he’ll be laying the points here with the Mavericks minus four and a half.
Let’s jump into some questions and answers. I already see a couple up there. Great job by [inaudible 00:21:06]. He’s been doing a good job at dumping some interesting props there at the bottom and I’ll just start with him. What do you, oh do we hate? I got to be careful on the wording here. What do we think of the Jimmy Butler points, rebounds and assist over? And as always, thank you for giving us the number. Whenever you guys are asking us about a player prop again, please give us a number there. We don’t always have those in front of us. I’ll start with you here, Skee. What do you think of Mr. Butler’s points, rebounds and assists? Without looking it up, this feels kind of low. I mean, doesn’t he score like 20 points a game? The rest of this seems kind of easy.
Skee Profit:
Yeah, I just feel like Jimmy, if the Heat are going to have success, which I think they should in this game versus a Grizzlies team, I mean they could just smother them defensively but I just feel like Jimmy Butler’s majority of their success. If he doesn’t have a great game then heat don’t win and I’m leaning towards taking the Heat tonight so I can’t talk you off of Jimmy PRA.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, what do you think there Chris? Over, under, leave it alone?
Chris Farley:
The Heat are one of my favorite plays tonight and a big reason on that. I can’t include every play of mine on the show, but a major reason for that is the way that Jimmy Butler is playing. This is playoff Jimmy Butler. He’s the centerpiece, the focal piece of that team, always plays with a lot of grit. He’s their leader and I love him against a team like the Memphis Grizzlies who are kind of wannabe Miami Heat team in the sense that they haven’t quite got up in the mountain just yet like the Miami Heat have. The Heat have a lot of veteran experience and they’re starting to put together a lot of good games. We’re seeing pretty good defense from the Heat but they’re relying more on their offense lately that looks like it has just more chemistry and a lot of that is because of Jimmy. So I agree with you Alex, that PRA prop feels low.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, it kind of does here. Another player prop here. What do we think about Steph Curry over 27 and a half points. The Warriors visit the Clippers tonight. Total Jekyll and Hyde team road and away. It’s been tough for Steph Curry on the road, but Chris do you think he’d get to 28?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, I really like Steph Curry over that point total tonight. I mean, Clippers have been a part of some really high scoring games and the Warriors are finally, we’re starting to see a different version of Klay Thompson. I mean he looks spry, right? This is a Golden State Warriors offense. So I know they look different at home, but this is a different part of the season.
I do not expect the Golden State Warriors who are still the champions by the way, to not play better on defense down the stretch and in the playoffs they are going to, they’re going to play better on the road and I think a big reason for that is a lot of Steph Curry. So I like anything really on the Warriors. I kind of like the Warriors to win that game tonight too. Not going to pull the trigger on the road, but they’re going to start to put something together here guys because I mean if any team in the NBA has proven that they can do it over and over again and figure it out, it is Golden State and a big reason for that is because of the leadership of Steph Curry.
Alex Christensen:
Skee, what do you think of that number? Too high, too low or just about right?
Skee Profit:
Probably just about right. I think he’s hit it three out of the five games since he came back. And I would agree with, I mean just, I’m not betting Golden State on the road, so if you want to lean or you like Golden State in any way, shape or form, you have to Steph Curry tonight. So I know he is always on Westbrook. We probably see a little bit of other guys on him as well. But I can’t talk you off of Steph Curry.
Alex Christensen:
Makes a lot of sense. And speaking of that game, Mark Holmes says we have to talk about Warriors Clippers and I know that we’re three guys don’t like being told what to do, but we’re going to take this in stride. What do we think of this particular game? Like we said, Golden State has really struggled on the road. They go to Los Angeles tonight. The Clippers are two and a half point favorites. The total is at 237. Again, those numbers haven’t moved too much and if you want to check odds, make sure you go to bet us tv.com/odds. You can see kind of a whole board there. Chris, you talked about the Warriors already a little bit. You expect them to kind of step things up. If there was ever a game for them to step out in preparation for a possible playoff series, this would be it, wouldn’t it?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, exactly. I mean this is one of those games where both teams should be motivated. There should be no lack of wanting to win this game or play their hardest against another elite or potential elite in the Western conference. But both teams underperforming in various ways. The Clippers at home, especially lately too. So I don’t know, I’d rather sit back and watch this game, but I think the total speaks to the narrative that we’ll see. I mean Golden State is starting to look very fluid on offense again. Clippers have put together some huge totals over the past month, so I do think this game goes over. Again, not going to pull the trigger though because as we near the playoffs, these players start to play with more intensity as well.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. What do you think of this match up Skee? I mean, I lean towards the over here, but it should kind of have a playoff feel. It generally means a slower, more deliberate pace, but what do you expect of this game tonight?
Skee Profit:
Yeah, which the last thing that you said, but the market is pushing it up so they think differently of this game. So I just didn’t get there. I know it’s a game that should be important for both of these teams for the reasons that you just said. And I refuse to take Golden State on the road anymore so it’s Clippers or pass, under or pass, haven’t gotten there with either one.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. And just quickly getting some news here on the wire. It looks like Ja Morant is out of counseling but he will not be playing for the next eight games. The NBA suspending Ja Morant eight games again for conduct detrimental to the league. So we’ll toss that as is a little note at the end. And thanks everybody, we really appreciate the questions. While you’re in there in the chat, toss the thumbs up, put a comment down there at the bottom. Put an nice congratulatory note for Chris and his new baby in there. We really appreciate it.
Here’s our best bets for tonight. Chris is laying two and a half points with the Sixers and he’s going to lay four and a half points with the Mavericks. I’ll take the Timberwolves +5 and the Bulls +1. Skee likes over in the Lakers Rockets game at 231, Anthony Edwards to have more than three and a half assists in that Celtics Timberwolves game and in the same game Al Horford to make more than one and a half threes.
Again, if you’re looking to bet these games and mentioned the signup bonus earlier, check out our sportsbook website betus.com. You can just dip your toe and you get a nice little $50 free play there. Don’t have to make a deposit or anything. Try it out. We really appreciate it. And again, thanks everybody for watching. Make sure you follow the show. You can find Chris @FarleyBets on Twitter, Skee @SkeeProfit and myself @_noops. The guys will be back tomorrow with even more basketball. Best of luck until then.
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