Alex Christenson:
I’m not worried about the few things here that look like they’re pushing this number down a little bit. I’m happy to grab them on the spread, minus two. I actually played it at minus three a little bit earlier today.
So, minus two, all the way up to minus three, three and a half looks good to me. I have this number at the six, almost six and a half. So again, three, three and a half are better, looks pretty good to me. I like the Bucks tonight, even though they have a shortened roster. They have the best player on the floor and possibly the best two players on the floor, depending on how Sabonis does.
Kate Constable:
Yeah, this still is a Milwaukee Bucks team that won the NBA championship last year. The roster is fairly similar, plus or minus a couple injuries and a couple of free agents leaving, but they did beat the Nets in their home opener handily. Obviously, this Miami loss doesn’t look good on their resume, but then bounced back with the Spurs, a 10-point win there.
Kate Constable:
Chris, Alex just mentioned rookie Chris Duarte, averaging 20 points for the Pacers. Domantas Sabonis also averaging over 20, same with Malcolm Brogdon. So, do the Pacers have a shot tonight?
Chris R. Farley:
I think they always have a shot, but that’s what’s kind of annoying about the Pacers, right? I just, in general, try to avoid Pacers games as much as possible, unless I feel like I have a really strong point on something. I just hate the inconsistency that I see from them, week in, week out. We saw it a lot last year, as well.
Chris R. Farley:
I mean, just to put this into perspective. Against Miami, right? 28 points in the first two quarters, each quarter, 28 points. Very, very effective, efficient. And then, they had 8 points in the third quarter, and then 16 points in overtime, and ended up winning that game.
That’s a good win for them, but that’s just how their offense operates. You don’t know who you can count on, game in and game out. Sabonis has played really well. They showed us some good things.
Chris R. Farley:
But, in general, the Pacers just turned me away from betting on them, unless they’re in a really great spot. The Bucks are banged up, but I can’t disagree with anything that Alex said. This is still a team that should beat Indiana.
The number says that the Bucks are about three to four points better with this lineup, even though it’s a little banged up. I mean, this is a team, for me and my power ratings, that are still about seven to eight points better than Indiana. So, they should come on the right side of this game.
Chris R. Farley:
And what about Bobby Portis? Let’s talk about injuries. I wish I saw some crazy Eyes. Bobby Portis, I miss him, but-
Alex Christenson:
It looks like he’s playing, and he’s feeling better.
Chris R. Farley:
Oh, he’s playing?
Alex Christenson:
That’s what it sounds like. He might be on a minutes restriction, but again, it’s a hamstring injury. Anybody that’s pulled one of those or known anybody to do that, it either starts well or it doesn’t. So, it looks like he’s going to play. I think we’ll at least get 15, 20 minutes out of him.
Chris R. Farley:
That’s great. I want to see Crazy Eyes come back and give some energy to that team.
Chris R. Farley:
But yeah, I think they’ll be just fine. But again, that’s one of the things about the Pacers. When they play well, they do play really well. When they look bad, they look really bad. So, I could only be on the Bucks on this side, I can’t look the Pacers way. No bet for me.
Kate Constable:
8 points in a quarter is probably not going to get it done against this Bucks team. Let’s look at the official picks for this game. Alex is the only one with a play on this one tonight. He’s taking the Bucks, minus two, over the Pacers.
The Celtics are in Charlotte tonight, taking on the Hornets. This is a pick ’em, opened Celtics, minus one and a half, totals sitting at 223 and a half. This is the back end of a back-to-back for both of these teams. The Celtics beat the Rockets, 107-97, to earn their first win of the season last night, while the Hornets beat the Nets in Brooklyn, 111-95.
Kate Constable:
I like the under 223 and a half in this one, because this is a back-to-back for both teams. And, they were also both on the road yesterday, so tonight’s game being in Charlotte, the Hornets obviously got to head home, but the Celtics, they continue their road trip.
Kate Constable:
Alex, when you’re capping games, looking at the total, how much do you factor in a back-to-back situation?
Alex Christenson:
It’s something that you have to look for. What I generally find in what you call rest disadvantaged spots, teams that are bad at things get worse at them, teams that are good at things hang where they are. As you start to look at these two teams in particular, Boston Celtics, outside of the two overtime game in New York, has kind of struggled offensively. You add on the fact that we might not have Jaylen Brown now.
He’s less effective, he didn’t play last night, so if he does play, you don’t quite have that there. But if he’s off the court, now Horford’s on the court. You have a tired team that really struggles on offense.
I wonder how things are going to go if they don’t make their first couple of shots. At the same time, you look at the other side, the Charlotte Hornets, this is a team that would be really nice, but you’d rather have Rozier out there, P.J. Washington out there.
Alex Christenson:
I think the under is the right side here, but I just struggle to figure out what the flow of this game’s going to look like, given who’s going to be on the floor. I think under is the right side, but I just haven’t gotten there myself yet.
Kate Constable:
Chris, we’re seeing a lot of players injured early on in this season. Is this abnormal?
Chris R. Farley:
Between all the rest and all the injuries in recent years, I guess it’s not anymore, right? I mean, we’re almost playing three seasons in two years here, between all the different things that happened with the pandemic. So, that probably has to play into it a little bit, right? Less rest in between seasons.
Chris R. Farley:
I lean on your side on this one, too, Kate. I think the under is part of the better play. Just a few things stand out to me that scared me away a little bit. The Hornets are playing well so far, right? I mean, they’re playing fast, playing efficient, they’re 3-0. It’s early in the season, doesn’t mean all that much right now. But they are a top 5 in pace, top 5 in points per game, top 10 in offensive efficiency, top 10 in point differential.
Chris R. Farley:
I mean, this is a young team playing with a lot of confidence, and they’re getting it from different players, too. You know, Gordon Hayward stepping up, Mikal Bridges stepping up, LaMelo Ball stepping up in certain spots. It almost feels like Scary Terry, being there or not being there, I don’t know how much it matters sometimes, because this team is gelling right now.
Chris R. Farley:
Meanwhile, Boston looking like Boston. Bottom third in a lot of those same categories that I just mentioned that Charlotte is doing really well in. And, not playing great defense so far, either.
If Jaylen Brown plays in this game, and like Alex said before this broadcast, we probably would know a lot of these things until right before the game, then I would side with the Celtics in this one. We’ll probably see some line movement there as well.
Chris R. Farley:
But, back-to-back nights, right? Lack of rest, sitting a lot of these players sometimes just because of that. It depends on the game, before it happens, and how much energy and output was into that game.
But I side with you on this one, too, because I see some regression for the Hornets. They’re not going to be this fluid, night in and night out. But, all those little factors about the Hornets so far, just how well they’re playing and gelling and confident, that just scares me away a little bit.
Kate Constable:
Miles Bridges was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week for the Hornets, put up 32 points and 9 rebounds against the Nets yesterday. Alex, what impact has he had on the success of this Hornets team?
Alex Christenson:
It’s been pretty impressive to watch him play. When he’s out there, you can see the offense looks much better. In general, I agree with Chris, this Hornets team has been a positive. It was a team that I was a little hesitant on to go against too much in the preseason, from a future’s perspective, even though I struggled to see how it all fits together. But, he’s been a really bright spot for them and a nice addition.
Kate Constable:
Well, let’s take a look at the official picks for tonight’s game. I am the only one with a play on this one. I am taking the under in this game, that is, 223 and a half.
Kate Constable:
Moving on to the Chicago Bulls traveling to Toronto to take on the Raptors. The Raptors are a one and a half point dog at home, total is 212. The Bulls are tied with the Hornets as the only 3-0 team in the Eastern Conference.
Chris, this line got all the way up to Bulls minus three, but is now moving against Chicago down to minus one. But, there’s some money coming in on the Bulls right now. What is that all about? That doesn’t seem like it makes sense or is in line with it moving away from the Bulls. Why is the money coming in on the Bulls?
Chris R. Farley:
Yeah, tricky, tricky. I mean, Nikola Vucevic is probably going to be out for this game. If he’s not out for this game, then he’ll be limited, because he has some type of illness, and that’s typically what we see in those situations.
But yeah, the line movement is tricky. This is another one of those red flags for me, just because there’s a lot of money coming in on Chicago, yet it’s moving in the opposite direction. I’m sure Vucevic is a part of that.
But still, a little bit of disrespect here, I think, for the Raptors at home. I think they’re better than advertised. I think they’re getting a little undervalued here. And Kate, I know you’re probably excited about Chicago. You should be.
Kate Constable:
I wore my red today. I didn’t even realize that, but yeah, I am a little excited about the Bulls.
Chris R. Farley:
Yeah. I mean, 3-0 is a great start and there’s nothing wrong with that, but let’s look at who they played. I know most of us probably already know this, but the Bulls did play the Pistons twice. They played a Pelicans team that looks pretty lost right now without Zion. And, Vucevic hasn’t been playing some great defense in these spots, so there could be an opening in the paint here for the Raptors.
I’m high on Nick Nurse, always have been. He keeps his team disciplined. The Bulls thrive in those fast-paced, down-the-court situations, right? That’s where they make their money. I don’t think they’re going to get as many of those opportunities tonight.
I like the way the Raptors play as a team. It’s a real team effort, night in and night out. Different guys step up. They’re at home, they spread the ball around well, solid defense.
Chris R. Farley:
So, this is just one of those gains where we’re seeing overvalue, for me, on Chicago, undervalue here on the Raptors. And it’s moving that direction, even though there’s a ton of money on Chicago. It feels like the books are trying to trap people so that they make a ton of money. I’m not going to side with the Bulls. I have to go with the Raptors in this situation.
Kate Constable:
Alex, Chicago’s been the better team offensively through the first week of the season, shooting 41% from deep. That’s third in the NBA. The Raptors are shooting just 26% from three. Do you think the Bulls are being a little overvalued in this spot?
Alex Christenson:
I think a lot of it again comes down to whether Vucevic is playing or not. With Vucevic on the floor, if he plays whether he has an illness or not, I’m going to assume he is at 87%. pretty close to his best, if he decides to play. I have this number right at two.
Alex Christenson:
So, Bulls, minus one and a half right about now, given what we don’t know about Vucevic, seems about right to me. I think Toronto is the better side here, from a matchup perspective, especially if Vucevic is out. Vucevic is going to be the matchup that would be the problem for Toronto.
They struggle at the big position. Again, they continue to start Precious Achiuwa. I don’t know why, but that’s what they’re doing. Nick Nurse must know something I don’t, but I would expect Vucevic to put up huge numbers against him.
Alex Christenson:
Whereas, if he’s off the floor, Toronto has the athletic guards and defensive players that can slit on guys like LaVine and Lonzo, the guys that they’re going to have to rely on again if Vucevic is out. So, I think the number looks just about right to me if Vucevic is out.
I think Toronto is the side. And again, the move makes sense to me. I think Toronto is a team that has probably been a little undervalued, given how they’ve played. And Chris hit the nail in the head. We’re looking at all the Chicago optimism, based on them beating the Pistons twice and the Pelicans without Zion.
Kate Constable:
And they didn’t score more than a hundred points, 98 points against the Pistons. So, the Bulls weren’t putting up too many points there. And the Raptors, they’re allowing just 95 points per game, ranks 4th in the NBA.
They’re outrebounding the Bulls by nearly 10 rebounds per game. So, if Vucevic is out tonight, that could very well be a bright spot for this Raptors’ defense.
Kate Constable:
While their defense has been solid, Chris, why is their offense taking so long to get going?
Chris R. Farley:
I really don’t know, maybe the loss of Kyle Lowry is a part of that, right? Just as a facilitator and as a leader on the court for that offense. But they have the players, with VanVleet and some of their other contributors.
I don’t like that Siakam is out for this game, but they have the players. I mean, Anunoby has stepped up in several spots. I do still like this team and I think that they could still produce plenty of offense. They might just be one of those teams, because of their losses and because of some of the changes in the off-season, that are just going to take a little while to gel.
Kate Constable:
All right, we’re looking at the official picks for this. Chris is on the Raptors, plus one and a half. Alex and I are both standing in agreement with you on that pick, although it’s not an official play for either of us.
Kate Constable:
Speaking of the Detroit Pistons and their not-so-great start against the Bulls, they are traveling to Atlanta tonight to take on the Hawks. Hawks are a 12-point favorite at home. That number has climbed. I believe it opened at Hawks minus 12, minus 700 on the moneyline there. So, big favorites at home. And then, the over/under is set at 212 and a half tonight.
Kate Constable:
Alex, you like the Pistons team total under 100 and a half. Why is that?
Alex Christenson:
I’m going to make this as simple as I possibly can. As Chris mentioned, Pistons played the Bulls twice. They scored 82 points the first time, they scored 88 points the second time. Now, as a result of that, if you pull up stats for the NBA, the Bulls have a very high defensive rating. They will not be up there for much longer. I expect them to be in the bottom half of the league sooner, rather than later.
Alex Christenson:
We look tonight, they play the Atlanta Hawks. They are in the top 3 in defensive rating. I expect them to stay pretty much there. You know, probably in the top 5-10, I would say somewhere around the five, six range makes sense.
So, they’re going to play a team with a better defense, their top leading score is Jerami Grant. Jerami Grant probably will not be playing this evening due to an elbow injury. I don’t know why this is a hundred. I don’t know how they’d get close to a hundred. I know that it’s an NBA game and they’re professional basketball players. So, as a book, you probably can’t hang anything lower than a hundred, but I’m happy to bet under it.
Kate Constable:
I loved that analysis there. You really broke it down and dumbed it down for us. That was great.
Kate Constable:
The Pistons, Chris, as Alex just mentioned, have yet to top a hundred, yet to top 90 points in any game, averaging just 85. Why is this total fifteen and a half points higher than what they’re averaging, in your mind?
Chris R. Farley:
I really am dumbfounded by that. And I’m really, if I could say, I’m a little jealous that Alex found that line and then he put that bet. That’s a great bet. I mean, there’s no such thing as a lock in this industry, we all know that.
I can’t imagine that the Pistons are going to score over a hundred points at Atlanta against this defense. I shouldn’t say that, the superstitious jinx, here I go. But, the Pistons, they’re just… I mean, 81.6 points per 100 possessions, that’s the offensive efficiency. That’s dead last in the NBA. I know it’s only over two games, but that’s 10 points below the 29th team at OKC. I mean, this is not a talented team on offense. It’s even less talented without Jerami Grant. No Cade Cunningham in this one again.
Chris R. Farley:
I got this at 10 for the Hawks, and I expect them to respond in this game. The Hawks coming off that Cleveland game on the road where they’re just a bad look. They were controlling that game in the first half. Second half, it took them about four minutes to score their first bucket. I don’t know what happened. They just kind of fell asleep at halftime or maybe took the energy down a little too much or something.
Chris R. Farley:
But, the Cavs hung in that game. The Cavs been playing hard. The Hawks are much better team than the Cavs. Trae Young didn’t play well. I like some of his props tonight. The Hawks are subject to mental blocks, just like any other NBA team, maybe feeling a little too fat and sassy heading into that last game against the Cavs. I don’t think they’re going to do that in this one. I think they’re going to come out red hot.
I think they’re going to really clamp down on defense. I like them in the first half, minus six and a half, more than the full game at 12. Like I said, I got them at 10 already, but I think this is a double-digit win. I got this game around 13 or 14, so 10 is good for me. Can’t take 12, but I really like them to show out in the first half.
Kate Constable:
You mentioned… Go ahead.
Alex Christenson:
You throw a little cold water on it, because again, folks, if you haven’t figured out how your bet’s going to lose, you shouldn’t bet on it. As Chris mentioned, he’s got this out at 14 or 15 points, which is where I have it.
So, we’re looking at a blowout, and there is nothing worse for an under bet than a blowout. If the Hawks come into the second half with a 25-point lead, this thing could get way out of hand, and we could be looking at someone on Detroit running up and down, chucking threes in the fourth quarter for no reason to get to 102 or 103. I think that is part of the reason that, obviously, you can’t hang a number that low, and that is one of the reasons to be careful. Again, if you haven’t considered how your bet’s going to lose, you shouldn’t make it.
Kate Constable:
Chris, you mentioned Trae Young’s points props tonight. He’s averaged 33 point a half points and shot 45% from three against the Hawks last year. Without Jerami Grant in the game, Killian Hayes, point guard for Detroit, has not looked great this season. Who do they put on him to slow him down?
Chris R. Farley:
I’m not sure if there’s anyone they could put on to slow him down, at least in the first half. The thing that scares me about his point props is that, like Alex just said, this could be one of those games where the Hawks come out really strong at home, clamp down on defense, and there’s a big margin between these two teams heading into the second half.
Chris R. Farley:
Now, they put on the brakes in the second half in that game against Cleveland, so maybe they won’t brake as soon in this one. But, I’m a little concerned that there could be so much margin that Trae Young won’t have to play a full game. They’ll maybe ease back a little bit. So, I think the only thing that’s going to stop Trae Young in this game is Trae Young.
Chris R. Farley:
Trae Young is starting to build that type of skill where he’s a little bit like Steph Curry, where he will respond in the next game if he has a poor performance. More often than not, that’s what we see from Trae. He has great mental fortitude in these spots.
Chris R. Farley:
So, I’m sorry that I don’t know where the point prop is right now. Anything over around 29 or 30, I would lean to the over, but the fact that it could be by so much margin just scares me a little bit.
Kate Constable:
The Pistons had the #1 pick in the 2021 draft and they took Cade Cunningham out of Oklahoma State. He has yet to play at all this season, but Alex, when he does come back, does he significantly make this Pistons team more competitive?
Alex Christenson:
Yes, but not significantly enough for them to be significantly better. So, really, what’ll happen is, the nice thing about having him on the floor… All due respect to these guys, they’re professional basketball players, but when Cade Cunningham comes back, that means we won’t be playing Cory Joseph all these minutes, Frank Jackson won’t be playing minutes. Those are guys you don’t really want on the floor too much.
Alex Christenson:
So, yes, it will make them better, but I mean, I’d be curious to hear what you think, Chris. I don’t think it makes more than a point difference really, either way. Maybe it drives some improvements in their offense and the pace. Maybe, I’d look to shy away from Pistons unders there, the first couple games he plays, until we wrap our head around it. But, I don’t know if he makes the team significantly better, from just a power ranking rating perspective.
Kate Constable:
Chris, do you have any thoughts on if he makes the team better, or alters where the lines are set up for games?
Chris R. Farley:
I think we spoke to this two weeks ago in the season preview, just that, from my point of view, I think Cade Cunningham is more of a developmental player. I don’t think he’s going to burst on to the scene and really score a ton of points, show a ton of confidence.
We saw that from Jalen Green on the Rockets, I think that was last night, which he had a great performance. I liked that for the Rockets and my season bet. Maybe he can actually bring some offensive production for that team.
Chris R. Farley:
But Cade Cunningham, it’s not that I’m down on the kid, I think he’s going to be a really good player in the NBA, but I just think it might take him some time. So, keyword, developmental, for this Pistons team. There’s a lot of development that needs to take place and growth. And, I think they could probably use another player or two in this roster to really bring them to the next level. And. That would bring them only to a mid-tier offensive team. I mean, that’s how bad what I’m seeing in the Pistons right now.
Kate Constable:
Well, looking at our official picks for this game, Alex likes Pistons team total, under 100 and a half, and Chris is sitting at Hawks, minus six for the first half of this game.
Kate Constable:
Taking a look at the Pelicans taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves are five and a half point favorite at home, total is 225 and a half. These two teams just played each other on Saturday. Pelicans are 0-3 on the season, Minnesota’s 2-0. The Wolves obviously won that matchup on Saturday by seven, but they failed to cover the seven and a half point spread. The total for that game was also set at 229 and only reached 185. Alex, with Saturday’s total finishing so low, you have the over 225 and a half tonight. Why do you like that?
Alex Christenson:
As easy as it was to pitch Pistons’ team total under, this one’s going to take a little bit of convincing. Yes, they did play on Saturday night and the score not only didn’t get to 200 points, it didn’t even get to 195. But, let’s take a look a little deeper in what happened.
The two teams combined to shoot 37% from the field and 26% from behind the arc. Both of those numbers are due to jump up. That number from the field should get to at least 45%, and I expect at least 32, 33 percent from three, at least. That’s still a bad shooting night, folks, by the way, we can do better than that.
Alex Christenson:
You look at the way game went. The Timberwolves were a larger favorite, but never really got out to the big lead that we expected them to. For whatever reason, they were never really able to get out ahead of this New Orleans team.
Part of the reason is, everyone was in foul trouble. You go through and look at this game. Valanciunas picked up a couple fouls really quickly, which kept the New Orleans offense some scoring. Karl Anthony Towns fouled out with about six minutes left in this game. It was really tough for him to get the minutes he needed. He’s a key player there. You look at some other guys as well. Brandon Ingram, four fouls for the Pelicans.
Alex Christenson:
So, you’ve got those guys off the floor. You’ve got a game that ended up being a lot slower in the second half than you expected. The pace for the game was still close to 105, but the second half was down right around a hundred or so, given how tight it was. So, I start to look at all those different things. I don’t expect Karl Anthony Towns to foul out again. I don’t think Valanciunas is going to pick up as many fouls as he did earlier. That leaves those two guys on the floor that score a lot of points, give up a lot of points.
Alex Christenson:
If the pace can stay even at the 105, which I expected to be a little better, given that the second half should be quicker, we’re in great shape. If those shooting numbers can get to where I talk to, which, again, are average to below average still. We only need some pretty natural regression here to get back to a total that was bet up on Saturday. You go back and look, that line was bet up about two, three points.
The market like the over there, they get it wrong every once in a while. But for the most part, the wisdom of the crowd is pretty solid. As I start to pick that apart and do my box score autopsy that last game, I see a lot of things that I don’t expect to happen again, all happening at once. So, I hope it doesn’t.
Kate Constable:
Well, I’m expecting the Wolves to win again tonight, like they did on Saturday. And typically, when teams play twice in this short span, they split, but I’m going to take the Wolves to cover the minus five and a half.
Pelicans are still without Zion Williamson, he has yet to play this season. Without him, taking care of the ball has been difficult for New Orleans. They’re tied for last in the league with 20 turnovers per game, and they had 30 against the Wolves on Saturday. So, the Wolves can continue to force them into more turnovers. They can get out and run and get out in transition a bit. I like them to cover that five and a half.
Kate Constable:
Chris we’re only a week into the season, but the Wolves, they looked okay so far. Is it too early to say that there’s a reason for this Minnesota fanbase to have some optimism on this team?
Chris R. Farley:
I want them to have optimism. That’s fun, but I wouldn’t get overly excited just yet. I mean, they did beat the Rockets, right? And they beat Pelicans. The Pelicans without Zion are just… they’re really struggling.
I don’t think they’re pushing the ball to Valanciunas enough. This is a team that ranked second in points in the paint last season. They’re currently 26th, only 38.7 per game now. Again, only three games, but they’re really struggling getting the ball in the paint, pushing it into the paint, and that’s going to be a real issue for them. They also just have a really shallow roster. I mean, their bench is averaging dead last in the NBA by a significant margin, 18.3 points per game.
Chris R. Farley:
That being said, the New Orleans coaches, they know all these things, right? They know that they need to improve in all these areas. They still play at a top 10 pace. So, T-Wolves coming into this game, first in pace and first in defensive efficiency, which is really interesting.
If you’re first in those two categories, typically that doesn’t happen, right? Because if you’re playing at such a fast pace, it’s really hard to keep the other teams from matching that rhythm. So, the T-Wolves are playing some interesting basketball. They have some really good young players on that team who are showing confidence. I’m going to need to wait until they don’t face the Pelicans five times a week.
Chris R. Farley:
But, there’s some hope in Minnesota and there should be, because this is another developmental team, right? We saw that come out a lot last year. And now, they’re showing some signs that they know how to win in games that they should win. That’s always a good thing.
Chris R. Farley:
This game just has me a little scared to pick them, only because New Orleans needs to win. I mean, they want to show out here a little better. I totally agree with what Alex said about his points, about positive regression on both sides on offense. The fact that that game was 185 points blew my mind. I mean, a lot of things blew my mind on Saturday, but that was at the top of that list. So, I lean to the over in this game too, and I think the Minnesota side is just a little scary, Kate. Sorry.
Kate Constable:
All right. That’s just fine. I know Pelicans, 0-3, they’re looking for their first win tonight, so it will be a tough one. Looking at our official picks. I am on Minnesota, minus five and a half. Alex is taking the over at 225 and a half.
Kate Constable:
Let’s take a look at our picks across the board for today. Looking at the Raptors. Chris likes them plus one and a half over the Chicago Bulls. I’m taking the under in the Celtics-Hornets game. And then, Alex likes a couple overs. Well, one over today, over in that Timberwolves-Pelicans game we just talked about, and then the Detroit team total, under 100 and a half. It’ll be interesting to see if they can crack 100 for the first time this season. And then, the Bucks taking on the Pacers. Alex is playing them at minus two.
Kate Constable:
We have a couple questions that were sent in throughout the show. Thank you for those. Gentlemen, home court advantage in the NBA. Alex, how much does that matter and how much does that play into a total or a spread?
Alex Christenson:
As I start to look at it, it’s mostly from a spread perspective. It’s really a big difference from a ratings’ perspective between teams, but it’s something that’s really been falling off. We don’t have too many games yet, only about three, four games for every team, some really have only played two so far, to try to figure out how it looks this season.
But, as you start to look at some of the pricing in the market so far and what that kind of is implying, and combine that with what you see last year, you have a couple teams… Utah and Denver having the altitude, especially in bad rest spots for their opponents. That home court advantage can be as high as three points.
Alex Christenson:
But, in general, you’re looking at about a one and a half point home-court advantage for everybody. A couple people at two, a couple people two and a half. Again, it can get as high as three, but Denver and Utah probably, in general, is two and a half, somewhere between two and a half and three. You should be thinking about this in terms of percentages, of ratings. But in general, roughly a point and a half, I think, for your average team. What do you think, Chris?
Chris R. Farley:
I’m on the same page as you. I mean, it rarely goes over two or two and a half for me, unless it’s like a big spot, right? Like in the playoffs or something, and the crowds just going… Well, I mean, it’s hard to not think that Madison Square Garden, it didn’t affect some of those games in the playoffs last year.
Chris R. Farley:
But, yeah, I agree with Alex, I think it’s going down a little bit. But, that being said, 57% of these games going to the under. That is not a stat that I found, credit to Alex for that one. But, you got to think that the crowd is having some impact on the scoring as well, because there’s just a lot of noise, a lot more pressure. You feel the pressure a little bit more.
Chris R. Farley:
So, I grade a home-court advantage on a scale of 0.5 to two points usually, depending on the team. In the early-goings in the season though, I do think it’s having more of an effect on the totals.
Kate Constable:
Alex, you mentioned, in Denver, playing, sometimes that could be a three-point favorite, just playing in the altitude there. So, we have a question, any leans or bets on the Nuggets versus Cavs tonight?
Alex Christenson:
This one’s tough. A couple real smart people I know like Cleveland. Cleveland’s been bad, there’s been some money coming on Cleveland. I think there’s, they started the day at double digits. They’re down to nine and a half here. As I look at it, that spread opened up. It was 10 and a half this morning. We’re down to nine and a half, so some money coming in.
Alex Christenson:
But, I like Denver. I have Denver, minus 11. I think the Denver Nuggets are a very good team. Cleveland has struggled and looked very poor. As I go back and look specifically, if we try to quantify this advantage for Denver, they’ve got two nights rest. This will be a three and four for Cleveland again in Denver, so that’ll pick things up a little bit for them.
Alex Christenson:
But, I think it’s going to be a clunky, ugly game. Maybe look at some Jokic overs if you’re looking for something to play. I mean, he should be able to just dominate either Jarrett Allen or Evan Mobley and those guys. So, not too worried about that. But, everything in the market looks just about right for me, total perspective, spread perspective.
Kate Constable:
Chris, Nuggets, minus nine and a half tonight, any lean your way?
Chris R. Farley:
I strongly consider playing on the Cavs as well, only because the Nuggets, they start off their season hot. They beat the Spurs, they beat the Suns, two Western Conference teams. Feeling good about themselves, right? Tomorrow they face the Jazz.
That’s a big spot, right? It’s a look-ahead spot, and that’s just something that we look at in sports betting. How much do they really care about beating up on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight? I don’t know, but they’re at Utah tomorrow, one of the tougher spots to play in the NBA. Obviously, one of the biggest contenders in the Western conference. I’m sure they’ll have one of the best records in the Western Conference again.
Chris R. Farley:
The Cavs have been playing hard. Not a very talented team, but they’ve been playing hard. So, I can only look in the Cavs’ side in that game. No bet for me, but I did actually consider including that in my plays today, just because I like… Those look-ahead spots in the NBA really do make a big difference in times.
Kate Constable:
And Chris, explain what a look-ahead spot is and how much you factor that into a game like tonight.
Chris R. Farley:
So, I factor it even more into a game if it’s a sandwich spot, which is a common term that I think many of us use to describe a big game, followed by a game that shouldn’t be that difficult, followed by another big game.
But, this is one of those situations where, even though it’s the beginning of the season, it’s a big game in Utah, they’re undefeated. To go in there and to beat the Jazz, you’ve got to think. In the players’ minds and the coaches’ minds, that’s already on their mind. This is a team, in the Cavaliers, that they expect to beat, and they should beat them.
Chris R. Farley:
But, lines are set where they’re set for a reason, right? It should be a double digit win. The books know that. The books know that we’re expecting that. So, they have it right around that number at 10. That just could be tricky, because the Cavs could get some… well, I guess it’s not called garbage-time points. Maybe it is in the NBA, I don’t know, it is in the NFL. But, the Cavs can make this game a little closer towards the end, as the Nuggets pull back in preparation, as their minds and their bodies are thinking about the next day against a much better team.
Chris R. Farley:
So, I would just encourage all betters just to look at the previous games, look at the games ahead, if there’s something really contentious around the corner that just could make a difference, and the mentality of the team heading into that game.
Kate Constable:
All right. Well, as we wrap up, let’s take a look one last time at our best bets for today.
Kate Constable:
Alex playing the Bucks, minus two, the Detroit team total under 100 and a half, and the over in the Timberwolves-Pelicans game, 225 and a half.
Kate Constable:
I am on the under in the Celtics-Hornets, and Wolves, minus five and a half, against the Pelicans.
Kate Constable:
Chris is taking the Raptors at home to get their first… well, maybe get their first win hopefully. He has them plus one and a half.
Kate Constable:
That is all that we have for you today. Don’t forget to subscribe to the BetUS YouTube channel. Hit the notification bell so you don’t miss out on any of our exclusive content. And, we’d love it if you could go ahead and give this video a thumbs up. We would appreciate that. And, we look forward to seeing you tomorrow.
