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Home » BetUS TV » The NBA Show » NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals | NBA Picks and Predictions [May 3rd]

NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals | NBA Picks and Predictions [May 3rd]

The NBA Show by BetUS by The NBA Show by BetUS
May 3, 2022, 5:31pm ET
in The NBA Show

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Kate Constable:

Good afternoon. What’s up everyone? Thank you for tuning in to today’s episode of the BetUS NBA show, we have Josh C and Chris Barley here with us today. I’m your host, Kate Constable. Two great games yesterday. Start with the Sixers and Heat. Sixers made that much more interesting than I think most of us might have thought they would, but in the end, Heat ended up pulling that one out, and then Suns and Mavs. We’ll also touch on that one. Suns won that one. Josh starting with the Heat and the Sixers, did you have any stake in that game yesterday being you weren’t on the show?

Josh:

Nothing in that game for me, I’ve got a few pretty aggressive Miami Heat series positions. So, I’m happy just to sit back for that one and let it unfold. And hopefully, Miami just keep doing the job game to game, but I think ultimately it ended in the manner and fashion in which I think we all anticipated it to. The Sixers did show some life there in the second quarter, made some nice changes, stumbled across a couple of… Let’s say fair lineups that probably weren’t necessarily anticipated. And that didn’t involve DeAndre Jordan, which is always great. But then Doc Rivers has also publicly come out and said that they will continue to start him.

Josh:

So, unfortunately for Sixers fans, any belief they may have stumbled through in that game when he wasn’t on the floor is short lived given that he’ll be back there to start game two. But I expect Miami to pretty much roll this series, even when NBA comes back. It is probably too little too late by that point. And I don’t think they’re going to be able to stem momentum and swing the tie in that one.

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Kate Constable:

I definitely don’t disagree with you there. I also had the Heat minus eight yesterday. So a nice little win for me there. Chris, you talked on yesterday’s show that you would take Harden under all day long. And that was definitely the move yesterday. He only had 16 points, only took 13 shots. Should James Harden have done more, been more of an impact in that game?

Chris:

Yeah. Man, the second quarter he started to come alive, but then that settled down pretty quickly. That’s very loud. I’m sorry. We have work being done on my house. So, sorry about that guys. James Harden, I just don’t think that he’s what he used to be. Not a player that the 76ers are going to be able to solely depend on. Obviously, and beat being out is just the biggest hole imaginable for the 76ers. Tobias Harris did really good things in the beginning of that game too.

Chris:

But I just don’t feel like it’s sustainable. I mean the Heat and the 76ers had the same amount of possessions, but the Heat scored 20 more points off of that. There’s just a lot of transition buckets for them. A lot of near proximity shots. They dominate in the paint. That’s a lot of Embiid, that’s a lot of missing Embiid and there’s only so much that 76ers going to be able to do. And I guess, Embiid is slated to come back at some point, which is a little spooky with his eye stuff going on. But until that happens, I’m probably not going to be looking at the 76ers in this series.

Kate Constable:

No, I think that’s probably the safe move is to stay away from betting them. Josh, who on the Heat yesterday impressed you, if anyone? I mean, Bam Adebayo had 24 points, he shot 8 of 10, but Jimmy Butler only 5 of 16. Should you expect more out of Jimmy Butler in a series like this?

Josh:

Yeah, I think he’ll play his way into the series. I’m sure it’s well known that he has some level of animosity towards that franchise. So I don’t think that level of performance will be replicated for the majority of this series, but I think you have to say the most impressive was probably Tyler Herro off the bench. Once again, when he plays like that, it makes this team so difficult to contain and provides such a mismatch in that second unit as well. So he is probably, I think it’s fair to say the key for Miami going forward, both in the Conference semi-final and the Conference final as well, because of what he can provide off the bench for them and the pressure that he alleviates of guys like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as a result.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. I just quickly doing the map, but at quick glance it looks like Tyler Herro outscored the entire Sixers bench just by himself. So right there, that’s going to be an issue for the Sixers, this entire series is their bench production because they’re not getting much of it at all. Move over to the Mavs and Suns yesterday. Chris, you and I were both on the under in this one. I still think that’s the right play, but the Suns shot 64% midway through the third. I mean, what are your thoughts on our play yesterday?

Chris:

Yeah, well, I think the Phoenix Suns figured something out. That if you run really fast and really efficient on the Mavs, they’re going to have a really tough time stopping you and the Phoenix Suns, they play that small ball so well, they move around the ball a lot.

Chris:

Maybe we can move over to Josh for a second? I’m sorry about that. Every time I talk too, which is funny.

Kate Constable:

I know, right?

Chris:

The noise isn’t happening when I don’t talk, but I guess, hopefully it doesn’t happen this entire show, just put an exclamation point on it. The Mavs aren’t really built to chase after a team like that, right? They’re going to become very predicated on their three point shot, which Max Kleber did well in that area. Luca was trying to hold him up, but really no one else was hitting their shots like usual and the amount of stamina that you have to have to hang with the team like the Suns, I mean, they’re just running constantly. They’re moving constantly. And we saw the Mavs catching up to that a little bit in the fourth quarter. But to expect that level of defensive effort throughout the entire game is going to be really tough. The Mavs seem to have figured that out a little bit more on the fourth, but if the Suns keep on running like that, there’s just two very different teams in that sense. And it’s not a good matchup for the Mavs when it’s working for the Suns.

Kate Constable:

Josh, the ending score was only seven point differential between these two teams, but throughout the entire game, I mean, the Suns were up by almost 20 for the most part of it. It almost looked like the Suns just kind of threw in the towel for that last quarter. I mean, in your mind, does the final score really reflect what we saw in that game?

Josh:

No, this series to me is pretty lopsided. I’ve said it before. I’m pretty aggressive on Phoenix in this matchup. I think that there’s a very realistic world where they win this in five, they match up so well with Dallas at both ends of the floor as well. And I think to Chris’s point about Phoenix being able to play with pace that comes off of being able to push off of misses. And that’s because defensively, they do a terrific job of stopping Dallas from being able to do what they want to do with the basketball. You know, this isn’t the Utah Jazz, they don’t allow those wide open perimeter shots. Their rotations are always on point. Their health defense is fantastic. And it’s going to take a lot for, I think, Dallas to adjust offensively. And on the flip side is I don’t think the Mavs can make any adjustments defensively to really slow Phoenix down.

Josh:

I think the Suns just have their number at that end of the floor too. They’re a team who have two of the best mid range shot creators, shot makers and play makers in Chris Paul and Devin Booker. And that’s how you beat the Mavs. They’re a fantastic perimeter and a fantastic rim defense, but they’re extremely vulnerable in that mid-range. And as soon as they need to try and do something different to at least make life difficult for teams at that side of the floor and particular in that space, that’s when it sort of comes undone for them elsewhere. And you saw Phoenix able to generate wide open looks on the perimeter as a result. So yeah, I’m very bullish on the signs. I think they’re going to continue to absolutely roll this series. And I think that, that final score, probably a bit flattering for Dallas overall.

Chris:

Josh, what happened to your over of the Mavs? What happened? Just flew out the window?

Josh:

I think they’re the second best team in the west. This is just the worst possible matchup for them. I think if they had played Golden State or if they played Memphis, they’d been in a Conference final, but unfortunately silly games were dropped in the back end of the regular season, which saw them give away that three seed. Now they’ve had the four seed and now I think they just get rolled by Phoenix. It’s quite literally just a match up dependent series where Phoenix for me just holds the ultimate edge on them.

Kate Constable:

And they just lost a game in which Luka Doncic just had 45 points. So the Sun’s basically said, “Luka, you get whatever you want. We’re going to shut everyone else down.” And they did that and still lost. So it’ll be interesting to see how the series goes, but I don’t disagree with you, Josh, I could see the Suns in five in this one. Let’s start off with today’s games. We’ll take a look at our overall schedule to begin, and then we’ll jump into the two games that we have for today. All of us looking pretty good. Nothing more to say there, then keep it up. All right.

Josh:

Good pep talk, Kate.

Kate Constable:

Yep. I’m always here for those. Very inspirational. The Bucks and the Celtics, the Celtics might need a little pep talk tonight because they dropped to game one, the Bucks dominated that one, 101-89. Tonight, Celtics are a favorite again, they’re at home five point favorite, total is 215 and a half, and Josh, you are all over the Celtics tonight.

Josh:

Yeah, I think it’s bounce back spot for Boston. I think you get a better effort, a tidier effort I think is probably the best way to put it. You look at that game one, they were pretty sloppy. I think it’s fair to say whether it was the extended time off, whether it’s the adjustment of having to play a more capable team, if you will, in the Bucks or in a more complete team.

Josh:

But that adjustment was expected to a certain extent. Maybe it got away from them in that second half a little bit, but you look at some of the individual metrics and box score analysis of this game and Boston didn’t necessarily perform terribly, just the one thing that stands out, and that’s the fact that they had 19 turnovers that led to 27 Milwaukee points and they were minus 21 in points off of turnovers in a game they’re lost by 12.

Josh:

And I think that tells the entire story where a lot of those turnovers were live turnovers and that allowed Milwaukee to play in transition. And when they did that, it’s not surprising that when you have someone like Giannis, who’s the most efficient player in transition offense, that they took full advantage of that. So that’s probably going to be the key area for Boston, is take care of the basketball better, execute your offensive sets better, and as a result, you’ll also play better defense because when it came to half court sets, these teams were almost identical and there really wasn’t much to split them at all. So I expect that to be the one point of emphasis I think for Ime Udoka tidy up is just be better with the basketball, don’t allow Milwaukee to play in transition, force them into half court sets and they’ll get enough stops that they themselves are then able to play in transition down the other end of the floor as well.

Josh:

Historically, the Bucks, when they do win one on the road, they tend to split on the road as well. So it’s not like they’re a team that goes out and necessarily capitalizes to it’s full extent, I think in these situations and you look at them this season in the games that they lost, they don’t cover the spread when they lose. So they do tend to lose by margin. I think that if Boston are able to play from in front for the majority and down the stretch of this game, they might be able to put some separation, I think, in the clutch moments of this one. So yeah, I think Boston tie this series up I think it goes back to Milwaukee at what a piece. And I still think after game four, we’re probably going to be looking at a tied series as well at two a piece, ultimately these teams pretty evenly matched for the most part. I don’t think that any one of these teams is necessarily going to run away with this one.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. A crazy set. The Bucks are, 0 and 32 against the spread when they don’t win. So if they’re not winning, they don’t cover at all, which is absolutely wild. So Chris, we’re going to try this here, see if your construction workers can hold off for about 30 seconds. What do you think the key is for Boston tonight in order to, I don’t know, maybe get out to a fast start.

Chris:

Yeah, no. And the workers have held off the entire time` Josh talked. So that figures. We’ll see what happens here. But just a quick point about the Bucks, the thing about the Bucks that’s really tough is that they’re so big. You know, they got Brook Lopez, you got Giannis, Bobby Portis played fantastic defense in that first game. It just looked like a championship defense and the kind of defense that we expected from them earlier in the season. But I like a lot of what Josh is saying too. I mean, yeah, what the Celtics did last game is they had to start shooting threes. I mean, they shot 50 threes in that game. 55% of their shots were three pointers, that doesn’t happen for the Celtics. Only 20 points in the paint, really impressive defense by the Bucks,

Chris:

But I would’ve expected the Celtics are going to come out of this one and they’re going to try to turn it up from the very start. This is a Celtics team, since the All Star break, there’s only one instance where they’ve had a back to back loss and that was a tough spot. They faced the Raptors in overtime and then they faced the Heat in their next game. That’s the only reason why they lost twice. I expect the Celtics to be a lot more buttoned up tonight. This is going to be a battle throughout the series. I have the Bucks in seven, but really this could go either way and let’s see if I missed any of my points here as I’m discombobulated with all this construction work. And there just wasn’t a ton of transition basketball for the Celtics either.

Chris:

If they start with the kind of aggression and with the kind of confidence that we’ve seen from this team, from the beginning, attacking the rim and spreading out the ball a lot better, I think we’re going to see a different version of them, at least early in the game. Five points is a lot to take the Celtics, so I don’t like that, but I’ll start with the first quarter minus one and a half, I think. TD Garden be going crazy. I like some of the adjustments that I’ve seen from Udoka in the past. So I expect them to come out a lot more crisp.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. I mean the Celtics really just need their non-stars, to hit some shots from deep or even just outside, I mean, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum were great shooting, but Payton Pritchard was one for six, Marcus Smart, wasn’t great from three. So that’ll open up the paint a lot, if some of those other players can start getting going from outside. And I think that’ll definitely bode well for the Celtics tonight.

Kate Constable:

Josh taking the full game Celtics minus five, and Chris is playing the first quarter, Celtics minus one and a half. Moving over to the Warriors and Grizzlies tonight. In Memphis Grizzlies are the underdog still at home. Total is 227 and a half. The Warriors took game one, 117-116, a nail biter down the stretch. Draymond Green was ejected in the second quarter of that game, but he will be back for this full game let’s hop. Chris, I suppose we’ll just try and start with you hoping that we’re guessing that the workers are going to be quite right now?

Chris:

Yeah. I’m sorry that this is a theme of this show. In my defense, I tried to have a conversation before the show, not a lot of English spoken in this house right now, which is okay. I need to improve my Spanish again.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. Maybe that’s just what you need to be working on. And we need to get you a Rosetta Stone or something.

Chris:

Yes. I used to be very good at Spanish, anyway. I expect this to be another good game too, but even though it’s a short line and it should be a battle at certain points, I’m going to really trust the Warriors in this one, the Grizzlies just became too Ja dependent in that first game. Kind of like the Mavs with Luka would sometimes what happens like we saw last night, right? You force it to be all about Luka, the Warriors are forcing it to be all about Ja and as good as Ja is, I mean, at 22 years old, he’s probably my favorite player in the NBA right now. I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold the entire team on his back. Good thing for the Grizzlies is they have a lot of great players on their team.

Chris:

They just didn’t perform very well in the first game. But as we all know at this point, Draymond Green also wasn’t in the majority of that last game. And I expect him to come back and make a big difference in this one, especially Draymond coming off of an ejection, he is still going to bring the fire, but this is a Warrior’s defense that really stepped it up in the second half without the main defender. And if you look at the way that this roster is constructed from Clay Thompson, now to Steph Curry, who made that awesome play against Ja Morant at the end, they just have more solid defenders across their roster. Guys can just step in and step up. And they really didn’t shoot that well on offense. So I think we got kind of like a mediocre version of the Warriors, but we got one of the better versions that I’ve seen of the Grizzlies, especially in the first half.

Chris:

I just expect that the Warriors are going to take care of business tonight in that first game, 81% of the Warrior shots, either from the corner three or I’m sorry, from the three point line or from the rim, they had a lot of success there and that’s very basic basketball, right? You get into the paint or you pitch it out, get into the pain, pitch it out very much like the Suns, the Golden State Warriors are very talented at that. And the Mavs or the Grizzlies really struggled to stop it. Grizzlies have struggled to stop that all year though. So I don’t know if they’re going to be able to fix that tonight. Golden State also won the rebounding battle, which is really impressive considering how small their lineup was at certain points. So listen, this is a really good Grizzlies team. They’re at home.

Chris:

I think they’re going to fight hard, but ultimately again, the Warriors are the more experienced team they’re going to have more poise in those late game situations. Jaren Jackson’s not going to be able to go six for nine from beyond the arc and every game either, he’s a great player though, but I just think that some of what we saw in the first half of that game was a little unsustainable. So I expect the Warriors to be even more buttoned up tonight and we see a better version of the Warriors than I have to expect them to cover. I’ll take them at minus two. So still a very short line.

Kate Constable:

All right. So you mentioned Jaren Jackson Jr. I’m going to play the under here and he is one of the reasons I’m going to play the under. I mean, he shot six of nine from three, scored 33 points in that game. And yes, he’s a fantastic player, a great shooter for his size, but he’s averaging 16 points per game and 16 points against the Warrior this year. So that’s quite the difference.

Kate Constable:

The third quarter also sped up a ton as soon as Draymond Green left, the two teams combined for 65 third quarter points, add Draymond Green back into the mix, I think that slows down a little bit. And then the Warriors kind of beat Memphis at their own game. I mean, 56 points in the paint. They scored off turnovers, cuts to the basket, second chance points. They had 26 second chance points and that was the second most they’ve had all season. So the Warriors are a great outside shooting team. They’re going to continue to be great outside, but I think the Grizzlies will up their paint presence a little bit tonight, which might equate to a lower overall total for both of these teams. Josh, what is your luck in this game with the Grizzlies and Warriors?

Josh:

I like Memphis to bounce back here in this spot. I think that they were impressive in that first half. They came undone a little bit in the second half. It was one of those situations where you see a superstar or a key player get ejected and the other team sort of step up in their absence. And I think that’s what we saw a little bit from Golden State. And I’m not saying that they can’t replicate that with Draymond on the floor because they’re obviously a much better team when he’s available. But I think it certainly had a part to play in the way that the game script unfolded. A couple of key things as well. Like you mentioned, Kate, those second chance opportunities, those offensive rebounds, their outliers for Golden Sate. I don’t think that happens again.

Josh:

You’re talking about one of the better rebounding teams in the league in Memphis, and they were completely dominated on the glass in that second half. And that’s something that I think that they tidy up pretty easily as well. They have the personnel to do so. And I think it becomes a point of emphasis in game two is to not allow those second chance opportunities for Golden State, which in turn, means that if you’re securing the rebound, they can play downhill and play in transition, which is where they’re most comfortable in as well in terms of running their offense.

Josh:

So yeah, for me, Memphis, there’s not a lot of big adjustments. I don’t think that need to be made for them to win this game outright, to be competitive. And I think, again, we get it from the opening tip where all season long we’ve seen the first quarter, first half, this Memphis team come out, really throttle teams, forced turnovers.

Josh:

I mean, the Warriors are a very turnover prone team. We know that for a fact that they’re one of the worst rated teams in the league in terms of live turnovers as well. So if they come in with a defensive identity and intensity that allows them to generate those turnovers play in transition and then play from in front, I think that they should be able to hold on this time around. I’m not willing to say that the Warriors are infinitely better than Memphis at this point. I still think that they’re two pretty evenly rated teams where Golden State probably wins out via experience if nothing else.

Josh:

I think first quarter, first half looks for Memphis here, make a ton of sense and probably my biggest edges on the board in terms of full game, it’s going to be tied again, and again, we have to negate that Warriors third quarter, which has become exactly what it was during their championship seasons, where coming out of the half, the adjustments they make it halftime are pretty noticeable and they certainly turn it on another level. So I’d rather just avoid that altogether and stick with the first quarter, first half look on Memphis and not have to sweat a third quarter from Golden State. But if I had to pick a full game as well, I think I would lean Memphis. I think they do tie this series up before it goes back to the Bay Area.

Kate Constable:

Fair enough. When do you guys say I’m going to forgo the two points for the Warriors or whatnot and just take the money line, Chris? I mean, because that screwed both me and you last game is taking the minus two, and we lost. So where’s your cutoff in terms of throat laying the juice for the money line?

Chris:

Yeah. You know, obviously all things easy to say in the past, right? I wish I took the money line too in that game, but the reality is very few NBA games end on only one point, right? If you just look at the pure stats that just rarely, rarely happens.

Chris:

Now in the playoffs, you can make a case, certainly. And I haven’t done the research that these games are probably going to be a lot closer. So maybe it’s a better idea to do it in the playoffs, but I’m not a big money line guy, unless I’m forced to. If it’s obviously, I also like the dog and I think they’re going to win straight up, or if it’s a really, really close line, if it’s a pick’em, then it has to be a pick’em.

Chris:

I would say it’s probably more advantageous. I guess more like the NFL, where you got those two point conversions, you got field goals, you got crazy things that can happen at the end. And those one or two point games can happen more frequently, but we just don’t see it in the NBA.

Kate Constable:

All right. Good to know. Let’s move on to questions. Unfortunately, where is everyone today? We don’t even have any questions. Come on people. All I guess I can ask you. Oh, well, we’ll go over this game that we have here. Chris is playing the Warriors minus two. I am playing the under 227 and a half. And Josh is playing first quarter, first half both taking the Grizzlies on the side. All right. So don’t have any questions.

Chris:

This is great though, two shows in a row where we have some disagreement.

Kate Constable:

It is.

Chris:

Right? You got to choose between Josh and I for some of these games. You got to do it. Now with Celtics we’re on the same side. So that’s good.

Kate Constable:

Okay. We have some questions. I’m sorry, Josh.

Josh:

No, I was saying, thankfully we’re on the same side for Boston. I don’t want to have to fire up about that this early in the morning.

Kate Constable:

Okay. Questions. We have quite a few love this. Do you anticipate Draymond Green coming back tonight after that? Ooh BS flagrant two call last game and going off and over points, free bones and assist. Is it going to be a big night for Dray?

Josh:

I would try and avoid the points where possible maybe just take his rebounds, just take his assists, single NBA bet  on those. And if you have a book that offers rebounds and assists without the points, then obviously that would be a look as well. We know that naturally he’s not a great scorer and it’s not a really good matchup for him either in terms of how he likes to score the basketball. So I just think that those opportunities will be few and far between, but I do think his fingerprints are going to be all over this game and the opportunity for him to clear his rebound and assists numbers as a result are likely to be quite high. So those are the angles I’d look at and just where possible, probably try and kick the points to the curb.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. Oftentimes when Draymond’s fingerprints are all over a game, it’s not necessarily in the scoring column. It’s everything else that he’s doing to facilitate for his team. If the Celtics don’t win tonight, Chris is the series over?

Chris:

No, no, no, no. I mean, I don’t think so. You could argue, these are two of the best teams in the NBA. They just both happen to be in the Eastern Conference. I think whoever wins, this is going to go on to the NBA finals and if nothing else, especially Ime Udoka has proven that he is a great coach in making adjustments. You know, the Celtics rarely, like I spoke about they haven’t lost two games in a row since the All Star reg, well, it happened only one time and that’s just not something you see in the NBA with all the travel spots, there’s just a lot of situations where teams could falter for a period of time.

Chris:

But the Celtics have responded now for a solid four to five months. We have a lot of evidence that they can step up. So even if they go down, O2, I think the Celtics are our team that are going to fight back. But again, I expect this to go to seven. Is it going to be really difficult for Boston to go to Fiserv Forum down 012 if that happens? Absolutely. But it’s a team that’s built for it.

Kate Constable:

Josh, you got to be happy with that response there? Celtics stand alive even with the loss.

Josh:

Love it. And basically now I don’t even have to talk to it, which is even great. So I don’t have to show my bias, but I don’t think the series is over either. If it’s O2, it makes obviously life extremely difficult and whether they can actually go and win the series from there will be very, very tough for a multitude of reasons. But you know, it’s a series for a reason. It’s four games for a reason. You don’t get there just by winning two. And I’m sure Dallas can attest to that, having won both games against the Clippers on the road, the last season before being ousted in Sevens.

Kate Constable:

All right. Staying with this game, who do we think is going to have the bigger game tonight with Middleton still out? Is it going to be. Drew Holiday or Bobby Portis?

Chris:

Ooh. A tough call.

Josh:

Yeah. That’s a good question. I think I would probably lean towards Bobby Portis. So I mean by big game, I’m assuming points more so than anything else. Then yeah. I would say Bobby Portis, I think just because he probably the way that Boston’s defense will scheme for Drew Holiday specifically to keep him out the game means Portis probably gets the easier opportunities if you want to call it that.

Chris:

You love to see crazy eyes do even more things for the Bucks too. He’s a fun player to watch. And he’s very skilled on defense too. I don’t know how much people give him credit for that, but he has great length and he knows how to use it. But that’s a really tough question. I mean, Drew Holiday has been stepping up as well, 25 points in game one. But as Josh said, I’m sure the Celtics will be more easily able to make adjustments against Drew Holiday, I think with their size advantage.

Kate Constable:

Yep. Agree with that answer as well. All right tiers one, could we mention any additional injuries for the Heat that we know of? Jeff likes to bet the game early with today’s games just pulled up the injury report. I mean, Kyle Lowry is officially out for what is it next game? Well, not playing game two. You’ve got Tyler Herro, who’s day to day, P.J. Tucker’s day to day, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus. I mean, most of the team is day to day. I would imagine almost all of those players, obviously, except Kyle Lowry play in game two. I mean, this is the playoffs.

Josh:

Yeah. I believe they’ll all be available to play. I think it’s purely, should I say recreational putting them on there? It’s not even mind games at this point because I don’t think Philadelphia believes for a second that I knew those guys are going to sit anyways. There’s nothing that suggests any one of those players listed is carrying anything significant that’ll result in their missing time, I don’t think.

Kate Constable:

So with knowing that this is the playoffs players are going to be playing at all costs. Is it better to bet these games earlier when the lines first come out, versus during the regular season, we got screwed a lot with injuries late.

Josh:

We did. We did. I think it is a yes and no situation. It’s the playoffs. So the line movement isn’t never going to be as drastic as what it is in the regular season. We’re talking half a point movements on most of these games. So yes, getting on early, I think is always just a good habit to have, but at the same time, given the fact that it’s the playoffs, given that there isn’t going to be a ton of line movement, unless something drastic happens that wasn’t foreseen, maybe it is sometimes safer to wait and ensure that you have all the information available to you before placing the bet. So it is a balancing act, unfortunately, but in the playoffs, I don’t think you’re going to lose a ton of value if you sit and wait, just given how efficient the markets generally are at their opening number.

Chris:

It’s a good point to be made by Jeff though, because assuming that the Heat win this series, whoever they face in the Eastern finals, they’re going to face a very physical team and the Heat are already kind of banged up. I mean, Jimmy Butler is real banged up too. You could tell whenever he gets hits, he’s slowing down a little bit.

Chris:

Right now knock on everything, Josh, for yours sake, the Celtics are healthy, the Bucks are healthy, Giannis hasn’t torn anything yet. So whoever the Heat face next, if they win, it’s going to be a very physical battle. And I feel like, who knows after this series, but the Bucks and the Celtics would probably have the advantage, at least as far as physical readiness, I don’t know health.

Kate Constable:

And we have a great new feature here on the show. I don’t know if you guys just saw that going down screen, Mark Holmes, jumping in saying, “If you like the overs, play those early.” Putting in his two cents. Definitely love that.

Chris:

Oh, live time comments. Love it.

Kate Constable:

Yeah. Things are…

Josh:

I’d agree with that as well. Total’s probably going to move more so than lines. So if you like a total early and you feel strongly about it, that’s the one that you want to jump on early.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well, we have jumped on a few lines today being we’re just a few hours from the first game of the night tipping off. So let’s take a look at our best bets for this evening. Chris and Josh, both agreeing on the Celtics. Chris is playing the first quarter, Josh full game, and then go in a head to head in the Warriors-Grizzlies, Chris playing that one full game. Josh is going to play the Grizzlies first quarter, first half. And I’m going to take the under in the Warriors-Grizzlies tonight. All right, Chris. So how long is this construction project going on? Are we going to be hearing this banging all week?

Chris:

No, no, no. I didn’t anticipate that it would even still be going on now. So should not be a problem for the rest of the week. Probably a good thing that I have off tomorrow. And then we’ll be back Thursday with probably other distractions, but not nails being hammered right above my head. Which I’m very grateful for, by the way, they’re doing great work. But it’s not great during a podcast.

Kate Constable:

No, it’s not, but I’m sure the house is going to turn out fantastic.

Chris:

Yeah. Hey, a shout out to whoever’s dog that was that barked. Because there was noise coming from somewhere else other than me.

Kate Constable:

Do you even have a dog, Josh?

Josh:

Yeah, I have multiple dogs. One of them obviously got upset at something at 5:30 in the morning, whatever time it is. Bless him.

Kate Constable:

All right. Well you go feed your dogs. Chris, you go take some Advil after all that banging and I’m going to go relax and get ready for these games. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website .So we will see you all back here tomorrow 4:00 PM Eastern, same time, have a great night.

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