NBA Playoffs Conference Semifinals | Picks and Predictions [May 13th]

Kate Constable:
Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Welcome into the  BetUS NBA show. We have Josh Chahal and Alex Christenson here with us today. I’m your host Kate Constable. The Miami Heat became the first team to clinch a spot in their respective conference final last night. And Alex, unfortunately, it was at the hands of your 76ers. Are you relieved that the season’s over?

Alex Christenson:
I was yesterday. I was until about 30 minutes ago.

Kate Constable:
Well, okay. So relieved the season’s over yesterday. But now you have a press conference today to go over what happened in yesterday’s game. And some things came out of that that maybe a certain coach might be back next year. How do we feel about that? Exactly. You’re not frozen. You just are [inaudible 00:01:00].

Alex Christenson:
Not great. Obviously, the Sixers would’ve done better with a healthy Joel Embiid. But let’s see. Why did Joel Embiid get hurt? How did he break his eye? That’s right. He was in a game at the end of a game for no reason at the end of a blowout. Now who would’ve been in charge of that? Anyway, but obviously the Sixers would’ve been better in the series with Joel Embiid. But even before you get to the postseason, just so many systematic failures, whether it be the front office failing to provide enough, whether it be through second round NBA picks, undrafted free agents, the little ways that you see better teams like the Miami Heat, are just full of undrafted free agents they’ve developed into players. You look at the Sixers, they have only about eight guys that are actually ready to play postseason basketball.

Alex Christenson:
He wasted almost an entire season not trying different combinations, not getting some of these younger guys in. A guy like Paul Reed, who at moments looks very interesting, but I mean, he should have been playing 20, 25 minutes at least once a week. I mean, there’s just, there’s no system of success here. There is no great build up to what is the postseason. It’s just a team staggering into the postseason and hoping that Joel Embiid can stand upright. And I think even if he wasn’t injured, he just looked exhausted last night. All of his jumpers were coming up short. There was almost no lift. And you saw it after the game. He just looked defeated. I mean, it’s a shame for someone that we know cares so much that we’ve seen literally cry on a basketball court before. I mean, he just, he cares a ton.

Alex Christenson:
I think he needs some help, but I don’t know if Glen’s the guy to get them there. Now maybe he takes the off season following James Harden around making sure he doesn’t eat too much and spend too much time in nightclubs, maybe play a little basketball, hopefully get himself in shape. But unless he’s willing to do that or maybe take a real look at himself, someone over and over in press conferences, defended situation decisions that are mind-boggling. But I guess, at first you don’t succeed and at second you don’t succeed, try it again. What the hell?

Kate Constable:
Hey, so speaking of James Harden, four for nine yesterday, zero points in the second half. I believe he only attempted two shots in the second half. Josh, what did we learn about James Harden that maybe we didn’t already know through this series?

Josh Chahal:
Nothing.

Kate Constable:
It’s a repeat of the same stuff.

Josh Chahal:
Exactly. It’s like banging your head against a wall, expecting different results when it comes to Harden in the playoffs, unfortunately. And as much as you’d want to hope something will change over time, I think it’s at a point in his career now where you can say that this is James Harden and this is what you get. And if you’re happy with it, sure. Then, go ahead, make a trade for him, enjoy whatever it is he brings to your team. But if you’re expecting any sort of change, I think you’re just going to be constantly disappointed. So it’ll be interesting to see what they do with him in the off season. I mean, I don’t see a world where they don’t resign him, given what they had to give up to bring him there in the first place. But obviously, the contract that he’ll be demanding will undoubtedly, I think, I don’t want to say cripple the rest of the roster, but it certainly puts limitations in place as to what you can do with it.

Josh Chahal:
So it’s a tough situation at the moment for Philadelphia. It’ll be interesting to see how exactly they retool for next season or if they really do just try and run it back as is.

Kate Constable:
Yeah. I don’t think Harden’s going to be getting the money that he expects to be getting. I mean, there’s just no way he’s worth that at this point in his career, right?

Alex Christenson:
He’s locked into next season, I think for 47 million and then it’s whether or not they try to extend him next season or sign him to a new deal. Again, we’ll say. Morey is always very aggressive in trades, but he loves James Harden. He’s gone out and gotten him now twice, made a big move for him. And again, we’ll see. Maybe through a full season, they could build some chemistry, find a way to use him, limit his usage during the season so he can finally peak in the postseason. Again, get him a little more familiar with Maxey and Embiid and stuff, but it really feels optimistic to just look at this and go, all right, let’s just try it again with these guys.

Kate Constable:
So two contrasting players, James Harden, and then you have Jimmy Butler. One of the guys doesn’t want the smoke at all. The other guy loves the smoke and that’s Jimmy Butler. He had 32 points yesterday, put up 29 shots. That’s what you want from your star player in a potential closeout game or a have to force game seven. I mean, we looked at Harden’s shots, nine attempts? Jimmy Butler shot 20 more shots than James Harden. What did we think of the Heat’s performance yesterday? Josh?

Josh Chahal:
I think we got what we expected from the Heat yesterday. And, ultimately someone like Jimmy Butler who embraces that environment in particular, and I think had a little bit of a chip on his shoulder playing in Philadelphia in an elimination game like that. And certainly let it be known after the fact when walking back to the tunnel. So he is what he is in the same way that James Harden is what he is, unfortunately. They’re just at opposite ends of the spectrum. So Miami know what they have in a player like that. And, ultimately can build a culture and a team around someone like that as well. So contrasting situations and obviously, the results, I think, speak to that as well.

Alex Christenson:
And it’s not just shooting 29 shots. It’s having shot so few shots in the first games, knowing earlier in the series when they have more players, all right, let’s let everybody else get it done as it gets later, as the roster gets thinner. And the Heat roster really was. Just about everybody questioned, well, that last game he looked around and went, “Okay, I’m going to play 43 minutes tonight and shoot the ball 29 times.” You look back, I mean, he shot 16, 15, 22, 20, 15. I mean, just to have that sense of awareness and to be able to go, “Okay, tonight’s the night. I’m going to take a bigger load and get this thing across the goal line,” is really what’s most impressive. And I think is what honestly, everyone looks for in any star, let alone in James Harden, Joel Embiid, anybody that’s playing in this series. That’s what’s impressive about anybody when they truly reach this level.

Kate Constable:
So speaking of another star that took over the game for his team yesterday, Luka Doncic, he shot 11 for 26, had 33 points. And the Mavs force a game seven now back in Phoenix. What is it with this series that home court advantage isn’t just a small advantage, it’s a massive one? I mean, every time a team’s gotten blown out on the opposing team’s home court. What’s going on?

Josh Chahal:
I wish I could tell you. It’s got my head in a pretzel a little bit. And Alex has said it multiple times on the show where it’s just as simple as in this series in particular, are the Dallas Mavericks going to get hot from beyond the arc? Are they going to shoot upwards of 40% from deep? If they are, they probably win the game. And that’s just been the recipes for success for them in particular. And unfortunately for Phoenix, they just haven’t shown up on the road, which is very strange for them. And I think yesterday’s performance in particular was really disappointing from them. So, going home, yes, it helps being back at home, but it’s a game seven. It’s a coin flip. Anything can happen in this one-off situation scenario.

Josh Chahal:
So they’ve put themselves up against the wall, especially against a team that’s going to run their offense in the way that Dallas does, where you’re just going to have to live with whatever variance comes that night. And you have to, I guess, hope for the best in terms of the fact that some of those role players don’t find rhythm and start going four for four from deep or something of the sort.

Alex Christenson:
And it’s not just the shooting that seems to be doing well at home. It’s the turnover battle. For some reason, Phoenix can’t hold onto the ball when they’re in Dallas. You look at the games in Dallas, they lost the turnover battle 17-18, 17-11, and last night, I believe 22-9, something like that, just outrageous. So again, I don’t know what Dallas is doing on defense at home that isn’t working in Phoenix, but there’s something odd.

Kate Constable:
Should we not tell Chris and let him in on the fact that Devin Booker didn’t play very well yesterday, didn’t have many points in the second half, didn’t really take over the game. Let’s just keep that between us three and not talk about that with Chris. Yeah. All right. Let’s turn our attention to today’s games. Two games on the docket. We’ll start with our overall record to kick things off. Yesterday, as a team, one and one, not bad. Josh, you were smart not to have any plays yesterday. I mean, that’s getting more and more common as the playoffs go on. These things are hard and you don’t have the play you like, might as well not make a play, right?

Josh Chahal:
Yeah, pretty much.

Kate Constable:
All right. Celtics Bucks tonight. First game up in Milwaukee. Bucks are laying one and a half. The total here is 212 and a half. And Milwaukee really has Boston on the ropes. This is a potential closeout game for the Bucks. These two teams have altered wins this entire series. So if that trend were to continue tonight, we would see the Celtics get the win. And obviously, then force a game seven. Josh, what’s your take on tonight’s game?

Josh Chahal:
Yeah, I hope it’s just that straightforward. I’m not looking forward to the emotional stress that’s going to come in the next couple of hours and throughout the entirety of this game. But I still stubbornly believe this is going to seven games. I still think Boston have it in them to show up in a pretty big way here. I still think that their defense, obviously, is playing at a level that’s as high as anyone in the NBA playoffs at the moment. So, I think as well, looking back at that game five, as frustrating as it was, Milwaukee in that fourth quarter were extremely impressive. But like I said, they were six for six from deep as well. And when those three-point shots are going, it makes it extremely difficult for either of these teams to keep pace just because of how good both defenses are in half court sets elsewhere.

Josh Chahal:
And if you take away that three-point shot, I don’t think Milwaukee has necessarily been terrific in half court offensive sets at all this series as a whole. So, I do believe that there will be a little bit of regression at that end of the floor. And if there is, then I trust Boston’s defense to again, do enough. And I think that their offense should be able to do a little bit better and this time around, and hopefully, not get into a situation where they go iso and they stop moving the ball down the stretch and try and essentially lean on their defense to get them over the line. Hopefully, it’s a lesson learned if nothing else.

Josh Chahal:
But I do still believe that Boston are very much alive in this series. I’m willing to, obviously, play them today and not necessarily write them off to get through either. So yeah, maybe a little bit of stubborn bias, but I think that there’s also enough that we’ve seen that passes the eye test and the metrics speak to that as well. So I love the Celtics to force a game seven. And then, we see what happens from there.

Kate Constable:
You mentioned Milwaukee shooting in that fourth quarter of the last game. I mean, they shot 44% in that game five from deep. I don’t think that’s going to happen again. They also had 17 offensive rebounds in game five. So they’ve been killing the Celtics on the O boards, even in the last two games. I think the Celtics make that a point of emphasis to not allow that many offensive rebounds and not allow the Bucks to shoot that well from outside. So I’m actually going to play the under in this one, under 212 and a half. I mean, I think this is going to be a defensive battle. We see both defenses show out. The Bucks have the best defense in the playoffs thus far. Celtics have the best regular season defense. And Robert Williams for the Celtics is questionable for tonight’s game. And I’ve got to imagine he’s going to be playing. If this is a potential closeout game, your season’s on the line, his injury, a bone bruise or something like that.

Kate Constable:
That’s just more of pain management and I’m not anyone to sit here and say, he’s not in pain or he’s faking it or can’t play through it. I don’t know the ins and outs of it. But I just have to imagine that you play in this type of game. And he is one of the players that’s really helped turn this Celtics defense around midway through the season. He has the ability to roam the back line. All these switches, he’s able to just bring a better presence on the defensive end and honestly guard Giannis a little bit better than Grant Williams has these past couple of games. So all of that taken into account, the Celtics limiting Milwaukee’s offensive rebounds, and therefore their second chance points. I think we get a very slow, very defensive minded game tonight. So I’m going to play the under. Alex, what are your thoughts on this one?

Alex Christenson:
It’s been a really back and forth series. And I wonder if we’re finally going to see the home team be able to close here. The last two games we saw the home team go into the fourth quarter late in the game with a big lead and just collapse under the heat and momentum of the other team finally picking up some shooting. I mean, Josh makes a great point. The team that shot better from three has won four out of five games in this series. It’s really come down to that. And when you’re at home, again, usually the shooting is better. I think we’ll see a better night from some of Milwaukee Bucks back up guys. Grayson Allen is usually much better at home than he is on the road. But this, again, the series has been really back and forth and I’m just worried if the Bucks, for some reason, tighten up again, like they did last game or take their foot off the gas.

Alex Christenson:
Let’s see if maybe they learned that lesson from losing last time at home. Because it was a pretty disappointing loss for them. I mean that puts them up 3-1 in the series and we’re done at this point. So we’ll see if they learned their lesson tonight. I think it’s a very close game. I think an under is a great look here tonight. I’m going to hope that we get a quick start here and maybe I can get a little better number live early, especially with how close some of these games have been. And I mean, we had shot at overtime a couple times here, so we’ll see. It should be a really fun game. I like the Bucks to close it out at home. And I think again, it should be a slow, ugly game, but we’ll see. It’s just been really some big shooting variance night in and night out.

Kate Constable:
This total opened at 212, might have opened at 212 and a half, went down to 210 and a half, and now back up to 212 and a half. What do we think that’s all about? Because I’m a little upset. I grabbed this at 210 and a half.

Alex Christenson:
Generally, the late move tends to be the sharper move. In general, limits are bigger later in the day. So that move you see a little bit later. I’m not exactly sure of the timing of that. I didn’t get a chance to look at it. But it makes a little bit of sense overall. You take a look at the line in this series, the total starts at 218, then 215, 212, 213, and 211 last game. We end up going over. In general, overs have hit the last two games. So I wonder if maybe there are some people going out, maybe they set themselves up for a better under later. You see that sometimes. Sharp bettors will go in, push it down and then whack it later when limits get up. Or people are looking at this going, you know what? The pace is starting to pick up a little bit in these last couple games, the shooting is getting better. And it’s so close, we have a shot at overtime. Maybe over is the bet. So a little hard to track all that, but timing is everything for sure.

Kate Constable:
All right. Well, Josh, taking the Celtics tonight, not even taking the points. He’s just playing the straight money line, has confidence in his team tonight. And I’m going to play the under, 212 and a half.

Kate Constable:
Grizzlies Warriors. No idea what to think in this game because the Warriors are laying eight. They’re back at home in San Francisco. Total is 218 and a half. But after what we saw in game five, who knows what to think? Grizzlies won that game by 40, 39 points. And without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are not better without Ja Morant, but they have been playing better as of late. So the Warriors, again, another chance to close this one out. They still lead the series 3-2. But it’s feeling a little bit closer than that right now. Alex, do you have any plays in this one?

Alex Christenson:
The Grizzlies in a series… Well, maybe to take a step back, in a series where anything continues to be possible. If you’ve watched the show, I know this will be the third game in a row I’ve said this, anything could happen in this game. I could see either one of these teams having a good shooting night. The way the pace I think is going to be pushed. The intensity both teams are going to bring. And that’s a lot of what we saw last game. I mean, Memphis came out, they started out early and that’s a tough place to play basketball. And Golden State got behind and really was not ready. So they scamper home where generally they shoot better. But give me the eight points. I don’t care if it’s the Grizzlies or really anybody, honestly. A game where there’s going to be a high pace. Again, anything really seems like it’s possible.

Alex Christenson:
Eight seems like a lot of points. Yes, the Memphis Grizzlies are much better with Ja Morant, but their defense gets better reads off the floor. Now part of that is a lot of those statistics are against second units and things like that. But overall, they’re still a very good basketball team without them. They have enough depth to fill things in and they have the ability because they’ve missed him for spots of the year to create an identity. A good coach when he has opportunities like that goes, “Okay, let’s figure out how to play basketball without Ja Morant.” And they really know how to do it. It’s something they practiced and done before. You see Jaren Jackson Jr. really get unlocked in those guys. And it’s just a deep team who’s ready to step up. So I think the Warriors do win and close it out. But give me the points. It’s just too many.

Kate Constable:
Josh, you agree with him?

Josh Chahal:
Yeah, pretty much entirely. I can’t really get to this number. I got an eight and a half earlier on and I just think that, like Alex said, any game script is possible here. Any outcome is possible here. And if you’re going to give me more than basically two possessions really, then I’ll snatch that up in a situation like this. This Memphis team isn’t going to lie down. They could be down double digits and they’re still not going to lie down either. And they’ll fly to the end. Like I said, that back door could be open. There’s a world where they win outright and they force a game seven themselves. And yeah, multitude of game scripts. A lot of them still points to Memphis covering in a situation like this. And you look at how the series has panned out and the match ups here.

Josh Chahal:
And they’re not too dissimilar teams either. So I don’t understand the disparity in the market between them here, even with Ja Morant out. I’ve, obviously, been a little bit higher on Memphis. I’ve been riding them ATS, probably most games. I did get the four and a half I was looking for last game as well, which was nice. So yeah, I’ll keep doing the same here again. And hopefully, we do get a game seven because it means that we cash again and we can probably ride Memphis again as well on the lines one more time. So yeah, it’s basically as simple as that. I don’t think the Warriors have been quite as impressive for me this series as maybe they have been to some other people. In fact, they’ve probably been a little bit disappointing, especially with their fourth quarter execution in a lot of games, aside from that one blowout where everything just seemed to be falling for them. And it was just one of those nights. But even in a game like that, if you go back and watch it, they weren’t necessarily all that impressive themselves either.

Josh Chahal:
So I like Memphis in this one to absolutely cover and just certainly be live to win outright and potentially force a game seven. Not saying that they will, but I’m saying that it’s certainly within the realms of possibility.

Kate Constable:
Yeah. Especially with Steve Kerr still sidelined and Mike Brown as the head coach right now. And Mitch Armstrong loves it. Loves it, Josh. For both your guys’ sakes, same side.

Josh Chahal:
Excellent.

Kate Constable:
What do you think in terms of the total here? 218 and a half, I feel like we’re going to get off to a fast start. I could see an over happening here.

Alex Christenson:
Yeah. I think it’s been an over series. Let me double check. [crosstalk 00:19:44].

Josh Chahal:
Yeah. I would certainly lean that way. I think the Warriors are going to come out and be a bit more aggressive about it. Force tempo a little bit. And I don’t think Memphis is necessarily going to shy away from it either. So especially for the first half, you could get quite a bit of back and forth and maybe a first half overs is a better look if you want to look at leaning that way on the total. But yeah, I certainly wouldn’t want to play an under, I think in this game.

Kate Constable:
I would agree.

Alex Christenson:
[inaudible 00:20:08] feel safe.

Kate Constable:
All right. Well, both of you agreeing today. And Aaron Rodgers there agrees. I’m not sure that’s the real Aaron Rodgers. But Aaron Rod, I should say, agrees Grizzlies plus eight is the right side. And that’s what both Josh and Alex are playing tonight. Questions for today. Do we have any? Well, while we wait for a couple questions to come in, Josh, we always have the same questions. So let’s hear it. Player props. What do we got?

Josh Chahal:
Let’s go hit player props. Let’s go with Memphis Golden State. I think it’s going to be the faster of the two [inaudible 00:20:44]. I think there’s going to be more scoring opportunities there. And one thing that Alex pointed out that I completely agree with is the higher level of opportunity it seems for Jaren Jackson Jr. in these situations where there is no Ja Morant. So I’d again, look at his points here. Maybe even look at his three pointers made individually, seems to certainly be averaging a much higher number in these spots. So I will ride him. And even though he does perform notably better at home, I still think he can get it done on the road and cover that number.

Kate Constable:
I’m going to fade Dillon Brooks again. Still not playing great in this series. His points prop was at 19 and a half last game. It’s at 17 and a half tonight. I think that’s just way too high based on what we’ve seen from him throughout the first five games of this series. So I’m going to keep riding that one and see what happens. Alex, you like it?

Alex Christenson:
19 was foolish. I wish I had seen that. I didn’t even look. It’s shame on me. That’s dumb. It’s dumb. Bad job. Books, you did a bad job.

Kate Constable:
Bad job. Yeah. All right. What do we have here? Steven Adams over 10 and a half rebounds, Mitch Armstrong. Don’t hate it. He has definitely gotten more minutes these last couple of games. Grizzlies’ money line. Like it. Definitely a possibility. Let’s go-

Alex Christenson:
There’s some value in that number.

Kate Constable:
What’s that?

Alex Christenson:
There’s definitely value in that number. It’s been the story of the series and it’s one of those examples where yes, Golden State should be favored and they’re probably going to win all these games. But there’s been value in Memphis at every number. So if there’s value in the spread, there’s almost certainly value in the money line. It’s not a bad bet at all.

Kate Constable:
Yep. Well, let’s look at our best bets today. Not just the ones that are not bad, our best ones. Grizzlies, for Josh and Alex. Josh is also playing Celtics money line and I am taking the under in Celtics Bucks today. So potential closeout game for both the Warriors and the Bucks tonight. We will have to wait and see what happens later tonight. But we would love in the meantime, if you guys would like, subscribe with that alert button. So you know when we’re going live and head over to Twitter, give us all a follow and remember to visit our sportsbook. We would love the support. All right, gentlemen, Josh, I know you are already enjoying your weekend. It’s Saturday on your side of the world. So go have a great day with your family, friends, whatever you’re doing. And Alex, you do the same this weekend. We’ll see you guys next week.