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NBA Playoffs Round 1 | Best NBA Picks and Predictions Today [Apr 21st]

NBA Playoffs Predictions and Picks Betting Show

Kate Constable:

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us here on the BetUS NBA Show. I’m Kate Constable and joined as always by Chris Farley. But, we also have a very special guest with us today, Jeff Nadu. He is one of the analysts on the BetUS MLB Show, did some college basketball earlier this year. Jeff, thanks for being with us today. How has the NBA postseason been going for you?

Jeff Nadu:

Not real good. Not real good, Kate. You and I worked together last year I remember. We did some things together and it’s good to see you. It’s good to see Chris. But, listen, the good thing about sports betting is, you can always flip it. Roller coasters go up, they come down. They go up, they come down and you got to go through the rain to see the sun. Why don’t we pick today to get it going? I’m looking forward to it.

Kate Constable:

I like that. Yes, we definitely need an uptick in our performance. Yesterday was not a great day for us on the show. Chris and I both had losing days. Josh went two and two. His only wins coming in the Raptors game. Let’s just start with that Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls game. Chris, we were absolutely on the wrong side of that entire game altogether and the Bulls pulled out the win. What did you take away from that game, other than Khris Middleton spraining his MCL and being out for a little while, which is going to hurt the Bucks?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, it’s two games in a row where we all had agreement between the Suns and the Bucks. I certainly don’t believe that the BetUS Show jinxed that game. But boy, that was a surprise to see what happened there. I mean only eight points from the Bucks from their bench in that game. Then they allow Chicago to shoot 48% from beyond the arc. I mean, if the Bulls are shooting nearly 50% from three point land, you’re probably not going to beat the Bulls, because that’s an aberration for them. I don’t know. It just doesn’t seem like the Bucks are in playoff forms just yet, or maybe they’re a little over confident, or maybe they’re a little rusty because they haven’t played the type of defense that they’re capable of very often in the regular season.

Chris Farley:

Maybe some of those tendencies are creeping into the postseason. I don’t know. But, I mean credit to Alex Caruso, Vucevic. A lot of these guys, they did their job. Caruso doing great things on defense. DeRozan stepped up, like he said he would. I mean, you got to give credit to the Bulls, but I’m not ready to say that the Bulls are going to hang in this series and they’re just as good as the Bucks. I mean, this is a huge power rating. It’s disparity on my end still. I got the Bucks as eight points better than the Bulls. We’ll see if the Bucks can pick themselves off the ground. I sure hope so, because it seems like they need, for lack of a better word, a kick in the you know what, to get started here in the playoffs. Because I just wasn’t expecting this from the Bucks, the returning champs.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, they did not look like the returning champs last night. It, to your point, looks like they haven’t really turned on the postseason Milwaukee Bucks that we saw last year. Jeff, did you have any plays in that game last night?

Jeff Nadu:

No, I didn’t. I’ve been out on this series. I’m not a big fan of the Bucks early in postseason. I remember last year they struggled mightily against the spread against the Magic at times. The numbers are always at 10 to 12 and they were always right on the edge. Now, it was a different series this year because now Middleton’s going to be out and gone. But look, last night they lose by four. They missed 11 free throws. This team shoots 78% for the free throw line. You can’t shoot 20 for 31 in the postseason and expect to win games. But, now with Middleton out, now all of a sudden we’re starting to see this in certain series. Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Khris Middleton. The Bucks can’t afford to lose a player like Middleton, because unlike some of the teams I mentioned, look, I’m just not as high on the Bucks like I am the Suns or another team.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, the Bucks are in trouble because as Chris said, they don’t look like they’re in a playoff form and the Bulls are starting to believe they can win. The goal in a two game way serious, the beginning series, is to win one of the games. They’ve done that. Now, they get two in their building. All of a sudden, the Bucks need to start worrying a little bit.

Kate Constable:

Another team that maybe needs to start worrying a little bit, the Brooklyn Nets, because the Boston Celtics looked pretty good in the first two games. Came back down 17 yesterday. KD and Kyrie for Brooklyn, not great shooting performances, especially this last game. What do we take from that series as we go back to Brooklyn with the Nets down 0-2 Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah. I mean, you can make a case that especially since Kevin Durant has entered that true super stardom role, right? Everybody knows that Kevin Durant is automatic. You can make an argument that this Boston defense is guarding him better than any team has ever guard him. I mean, him and Kyrie, especially, right? They were not good in that game. The Nets in the first half, they looked like they had some chemistry on offense. They were producing shots. But, then the second half, the ability for the Celtics to turn on the clamps and just play unbelievable defense in that second half. I don’t know. I mean, really the Celtics, the data shows that the Celtics offense is pretty good so far too. But really, if you watch these games, they’re out of sync so far.

Chris Farley:

I don’t think the Celtics are playing the best offense that they could be either. This is a pretty scary team. Now, as Jeff noted, we have Khris Middleton down for the Bucks, which that is not a small loss. I mean Khris Middleton is the number two guy in Milwaukee and they needed him often late in late in the playoffs last year. I mean, it feels like the red carpet’s opening up here for the Celtics. This series is far from over, right? The Nets still have two of the best players in the world. You got to expect them to play better in the next game. But, Brooklyn just doesn’t have a consistent defense. This is a Celtics team who’s been number one in the NBA, post All-star break on offense. Obviously, probably the best defense in the NBA.

Chris Farley:

There’s just a lot to love about this team. I said it from early in the season, something is special about Ime Udoka and what he’s doing with this team. His ability to adjust at the half, his ability to have these players play consistent on defense. Every one of these guys are playing their hearts out. I mean, to me, that’s a coaching thing and the Celtics are a pretty scary team right now. The Nets, this whole experiment, I know it’s a hot take right now. People are like, the Nets experiment is not working. I’ll tell you, if they get swept here, it’s just not going to be a good look, I’ll put it that way.

Kate Constable:

To play contrary into your Boston Celtics are one of the best teams in the East right now. They’re looking great. I mean, Kevin Durant was four for 17 yesterday. Kyrie was four for 13. In game one, KD only had 24 points. He has not played to his potential these last few games and I mean, yesterday, the Celtics won by seven. But in game one, they needed that last second layup in order to beat Brooklyn. If we see a better version of Brooklyn going forward in these next few games, Jeff, do you think the Celtics could be in trouble based on just barely squeaking by Brooklyn in these?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Look, I’ve been getting some crap, I’ll say. I don’t know if I can say the other word. But, I’ve been getting a lot from this loser Celtic fan base, one of the worst in sports. They’ve constantly come out because I don’t give them any respect and I’m still not going to give them any respect. Let’s remember, I mean, they outplayed Brooklyn in the first game and still barely won. They needed a buzzer beater to beat the Nets. You mentioned KD, some of the inability. You look at the fourth quarter. I mean, if not for a horrible, hideous fourth quarter, the Nets win that game. This series could be a whole lot different if one or two things go a different way. Throw in the fact that Kevin Durant’s been a disaster in both games. Now, we head back to Brooklyn. I would be very surprised if the … Look, if they sweep Brooklyn, I’d jump off my third floor, quite honestly.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t think that’s going to happen. I would be real surprised if Brooklyn doesn’t come out with a little bit more fervor, make some shots. They need more of the bench to step up and Kevin Durant needs to play like the best player in the league, which on certain occasions, we’ve seen him play like. Yeah, I’m not too worried. I think they’re the one team that we still have to talk about. Look, down 2-0, they get two games in their place. I think after, what is it Sunday? I think the series, eventually’s going to go seven and it’s going to be anybody’s. I think they’ll win the next two games, I really do.

Kate Constable:

Well, I hope for your sake, they win the next two games so you’re not flying off your third floor balcony.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s not too high.

Chris Farley:

We’re not going to hold you to that one Jeff, don’t worry.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Please.

Kate Constable:

Let’s touch on the Raptors, 76ers quick. 76ers win that game in overtime. Joel Embiid buzzer beater, or within the last second, hits a three and all of a sudden Toronto is down 0-3 with a game four coming up in Toronto. I mean, Chris, is there any shot? We know being down 0-3 is a death sentence in the playoffs, especially without Scotty Barnes in for Toronto. What do you expect to see going forward for them?

Chris Farley:

Well, this is a Raptors team who continues to fight hard. Obviously, they looked really good in the first half of that game. Those were the best to make, the Raptors early. But, I think the biggest difference that we’re seeing is James harden. He’s taken a step back. 13 shots last night and 10 assists, right? He just has a better idea of his role in this offense, as a part of the cog in the machine. He shouldn’t be the star on this team. The star is clearly Joel Embiid. They’re basing the offense around Embiid and he’s finding a lot of success. The Raptors just also don’t have the ability to produce offense like the 76ers do. Once their defense gets out of hand and Embiid is making shots and Philly goes on a run, it feels like it’s really hard for them to react.

Chris Farley:

They just set up Siakam with these post shots and I mean, that’s not an efficient offense. I think the Raptors are still just a growing team. I’ll be more, I’ll put it this way. I didn’t expect for Philly to be leading this one 3-0. I mean, I at least thought that the Raptors were going to get a game so far. It’s impressive. It’s impressive somewhat to see what Philly’s doing, but I’ll be more impressed when they face one of the top teams in the East. When they face the Heat, the Celtics. The Raptors, they’re just not quite there yet. For all intents and purposes, Philly should be beating the snot out of teams like the Raptors, if they play to their potential and if Harden continues playing like this, which is pretty unselfish basketball. That’s what they need him for, to handle the ball, facilitate and stay out of the way when he should. He’s doing a good job with that so far. There’s a lot to like about Philly. I’m just, I’m not going to jump on that bandwagon yet either.

Kate Constable:

Jeff, as a Philly fan, you’ve got to be pretty happy with where that team is sitting right now.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, you look at, look I’ve gotten on Glen Rivers many times as the coach of this team. But look, the truth is, I mean, they’ve done a great job. You look at Siakam for instance, Siakam is 13 for 36 over the last two games. You’ve shut him down. At certain points in the season, he’s destroyed the Sixers. I mean, one of the final games of the season, I think he had 37, 10 and 12 against them. That was without Matisse Thybulle in Toronto. Danny Green, I thought played pretty good last night. You look at Tobias, he was terrific defensive. They only allowed 39 points in the third and fourth quarter combined. That’s pretty impressive. I didn’t know they were capable of defense like that A, without Matisse Thybulle, and with James Harden lineup, because we know he doesn’t play defense.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, Chris anchored the sentiment. I’m happy, I’m excited. They’re going to beat Toronto. But, the shoe’s going to drop here in the next couple of series. Do they have what it takes to get past the hump that they’ve evaded and not been able to get over the last couple of years? I’m waiting with [inaudible 00:11:39], but I don’t think they can ultimately. But look, here’s one thing we can all agree on. You can say what you want about Nikola Jokic. You can say what you want about any player in the NBA. There is no one in the NBA that can do what Joel Embiid did last night, the shots that he made. The only player I know of, and I tweeted this Dirk Nowitzki could do stuff like that and that’s one of the things that made Dirk so great. But I mean, some of those shots he was making, pretty impressive.

Kate Constable:

I mean, a step back three with a second left. That’s not a bad shot to be taking, especially at his size. Not too many players can do that. All right, let’s jump into today’s slate. We’ll start off by taking a look at our overall record to kick things off. As always, feel free to throw any questions or comments into the chat feature, and we will get those answered for you. I mean, even with a couple down days these past couple days, we’re still all sitting above 500, which is great. We’ll add to that today in terms of-

Jeff Nadu:

That’s pretty impressive there, that record. 800 NBA picks almost, that’s impressive.

Kate Constable:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Good work.

Kate Constable:

It’s pretty good.

Jeff Nadu:

Good work.

Kate Constable:

It’s been a good season. All right, let’s start today with the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves. Grizzlies are a two point favorite on the road. This series is tied, 1-1. Wolves took game one. Memphis came back, won game two by a margin and now the series is back in Minnesota and I have a feeling that arena’s going to be pretty wild tonight because this is the Wolves first official playoff game in a very long time. We all saw what happened after they won the play in. This is a big deal for Minnesota fans tonight. Chris, what’s your thoughts on this game, any plays?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, so obviously in the playoffs, the one thing that we try to find is some consistency, or some angles we can actually play on and we’ve seen some pretty volatile playoffs so far. If you would’ve told me that the most consistent teams so far would’ve been the Warriors and the 76ers, I don’t think I would’ve believed you. But I mean, here we are. But one of the consistent things that we see in these games, are that they start pretty fast, right? They start with a lot of points, a lot of pace. I’m going to continue to play this angle first quarter over. It’s a little lower in this one, which spooks me a little bit that the market that came out like that in the market. But, at 58 1/2 this is a very beatable line. Both of these teams leading the playoffs in pace, obviously able to explode on offense.

Chris Farley:

I really like from what I saw from the Grizzlies in that last contest. Back to basics, right? They controlled the paint, a lot of points in the paint. A lot of offensive rebounds, controlled the rebounds in general. They showed a little bit of that top six defense. Minnesota disappeared in the fourth quarter. I believe they were down 18 points heading into the fourth quarter, so they gave up and that’s what Minnesota does sometimes. They should have a lot more fight in them in this game. They are at home, right? That crowd, like you mentioned Kate, should be rockus. Plus in that last game, Minnesota, they shot 29% from beyond the arc. This is a really good three point shooting team. You got to expect some positive regression in that sense.

Chris Farley:

There’s been a ton of fouls in this contest. We’re talking 40 to 50 fouls per game. These guys have been getting to the foul line. That obviously means more points. But, what it also means is that defenses have to back up and allow more space. A lot of fouls being called in this one. There’s also a lot of attacking the rim, so that makes sense. I’m going to continue with this first quarter over. I wouldn’t take the full game at 237 1/2, I think it is now. It’s gone up a little bit, but we’ve seen it slow down later in these games. Like we said, these teams, they’re young teams. These players can give up and just stop scoring later in the games. I don’t know if I trust the full game, but I still like the first quarter over.

Kate Constable:

I like that angle. It’s one I took in game two for them with Memphis team total over in the first quarter. In that game two, they combined for 65 total points in the first quarter and that game was so slow to start. 20 fouls called in the first quarter and it really just didn’t allow either team to get into a rhythm. Those are two teams that like to get up and down the court and play fast. I was worried at that going over 33 for Memphis in the first quarter of that game, and that one easily hit. Both of these teams, I mean, they lead the league in scoring in the first quarter, averaging just so over 69 points in the first quarter throughout this series. Karl-Anthony Towns ranks behind, second behind Devin Booker for most first quarter points. Great angle to be looking there. Jeff, any thoughts on playing either the side, or the total in this game?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, so this series has been interesting. I didn’t really get involved with game one from a side or total perspective. I waited for game two. We look at game one, Memphis just didn’t play well. They didn’t make anything from three. They got out rebounded, which is a complete joke. I mean, this team was the best rebounding team, by a wide margin in the NBA, as we know all year. They led the NBA by I think over three rebounds more than anyone else. This team doesn’t get out rebounded, just one of the those weird games. We saw everything come back to normal in game two and that was, I think what this series is. I think Minnesota’s a solid team. I just, like Chris described with another team earlier, I just don’t think they’re fully there yet. I think it was the Raptors.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re a young team, they’re exciting. But, I think as we know, Memphis is deep. They’ve got a complete superstar. The most important player though for Memphis that we don’t talk enough about, Jaren Jackson. You look at Jaren Jackson in game two, much more effective. On the block, he is their best player and he’s a guy that can destroy the Minnesota interior defense. It’s not good. Their two point shooting percentage was bad all year defensively. I’m going to come back to the well, I think with him in some way. He had, I think, 17 in the first game or in the second game. You look at this year against Minnesota, averaging about 17 per game. His prop tonight, I think is 15 1/2, I think he needs to play 30 minutes. I know they’re deep. I know they want to go to other guys, but he was effective in game two. I think he would be effective here. I don’t really love a side. I lean Memphis, but I like Jaren Jackson in the prop market points over 15 1/2. But, I lean Memphis. I just think they’re just better than the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Kate Constable:

Steven Adams has been playing less these last, I guess, just this last game, which would mean that Jaren Jackson Jr might get a little bit more playing time, so I don’t hate that look either Jeff. Both of these teams being very young, but it just seems like Memphis is the more disciplined team. If the Wolves get down, if Karl-Anthony Towns gets off to a bad start, he just folds down the stretch. Minnesota takes bad shots. I lean towards the Grizzlies in this one as well, but not an official play for me. But Chris is the only one with an official play on this one, taking the first quarter, over 58 1/2. Moving onto the Mavericks and the Jazz tonight in Utah. Jazz are laying seven at home. Total is 210 1/2, or 210 rather. Jazz took game one. Mavs came back, took game two. Jalen Brunson put up 41 points and I am going to play on the Mavericks again tonight.

Kate Constable:

It’s looking like Luka Doncic is not going to play. He’s been questionable, but trending more towards doubtful. I think either way, the Mavs exposed Utah’s inability to defend their small ball lineup in game two. Dallas hit 22 threes in that game and defensively Rudy Gobert isn’t really disrupting the Mavs as much as Utah would like, because of their ability to play on the perimeter, and especially when they’re hitting shots, that’s tough for him to guard. Offensively for Rudy Gobert, pretty much nonexistent. He’s taken a total of six shots over the last two games. I mean, Dwight Powell for Dallas is their starting center right now, 6’9″. Rudy Gobert’s 7’1″. Why would you not get the ball inside more, utilize him offensively? This is just a Jazz team that I haven’t trusted more much throughout this entire season and I don’t know why I would start trusting them now. I think seven, to be laying seven points in a playoff game right now is just a little too much, so I’m going to take the points with the Mavs. Jeff, we’ll start with you on this game. Any thoughts that you have?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, one of the worst beats I’ve had in a long time was on Saturday with Rudy Gobert points, rebounds over. He had 17 rebounds and it didn’t hit because he had one shot the entire game. I’m not sure what Quin Snyder’s been doing. I like him as a coach. I agree though, you got to get Rudy Gobert more involved. His rebound prop tonight’s 15 1/2 and I would have no issue going against, going with it again. I mean, it’s been money. Dallas is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. As you said, they have nobody to really deal with him down low. But, what you said in that opening was laughable. Jalen Brunson had 41 points in 42 minutes. Jalen Brunson, I don’t think he’s ever had over 25 in an NBA game and I know Jay Wright retired last night and I’m sure he is going to put on tonight for his old coach, but give me a break and that’s not going to happen again.

Jeff Nadu:

Things seem to, I think bounce, not that way again. I just, I’m not a big Mavs guy. We know Luca Doncic, that continues to linger for them. You’re right though, the Jazz are hard to back just with the blown leads and the inability to get certain players involved. I, again, didn’t have a real big play on this. I didn’t play it at all. I’m considering some Gobert props. I’d hope at some point he gets more involved. Points, rebounds seems like to look tonight, but I don’t want to get beat again. I’m sick of him not getting the ball.

Kate Constable:

Yeah, losing isn’t fun, is it?

Jeff Nadu:

No, especially when he takes one shot. I mean, he’s got to take more than one shot and I know they won the game, but they didn’t win the other night and we have to expect get the ball to Gobert. It’s time. They’re at home. We know they thrive at home a lot of the time. You know what? I’m going to play that, points and rebounds Gobert. If I get beat again, well I’m going to be mad, but, I’m playing it. Points, rebounds over, what is it? 29 1/2, wow.

Kate Constable:

Yikes. I mean, he’s only taken six shots all series.

Jeff Nadu:

All right, I’m going to go rebounds over 15 1/2, because he’s hit 17 and 17. He’s the best rebounder in the league. This is a bad defensive and offensive rebounding team. I’m going to bank that he’s just grabbing the ball like Dennis Rodman.

Kate Constable:

Chris, do you agree with Jeff? Do you agree with me? Are you taking the Jazz tonight? What’s going on?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, both make a lot of good points. This is just a really tough game for me, first of all. I think the line is really sharp. I mean, it’s one thing for the Mavericks to over perform when they’re at home in front of their crowd. They know that Luka wasn’t going to be in those games. There’s just sometimes there’s extra effort from there, extra motivation, especially at home. Now, they’re going to Utah, which can be a really tough place to play, especially in the playoffs. But again, I mean, how can I trust Utah? This is a team who every single year, their defense looks great, which it hasn’t this regular season. Then they waltz into the playoffs and it really doesn’t look good. Well, I guess it’s just par for the course for this one.

Chris Farley:

They’ve looked okay. But, to allow Jalen Brunson to go off like that is insane. I just don’t know what to think about this series right now. I mean, if Luka was back and if we had any indication of any expectation of when he is coming back, then I would look to bet on the Mavericks, because I like this team and I like the way that his supporting cast has played. But yeah, the Jazz just look like a bunch of solo players out there, they’re trying to contribute. They don’t look like a Quin Snyder led team who has a lot of chemistry like they have in the past. Again, we don’t know what’s going on inside the locker room or why that is the case, because a lot of times when we see teams dwindle there, like at the end of games and just spiral, it’s a reflection of team chemistry being able to handle those high pressure situations.

Chris Farley:

They’ve done that in the regular season. Now, we’re seeing it in the playoffs. Just a tough team to trust. Maybe an angle is to take an early under. These games have started off really slow, especially the first quarters. I’ll look at that. But with more luck that Rudy Gobert will score 30 in the first quarter and everything will change. I don’t know. But, it’s just one of those series where right now I’m just more comfortable staying out of it.

Jeff Nadu:

I think you just have to go, especially if you’re looking at Gobert, as Kate alluded to, he’s just not involved enough offensively. The one constant though is he’s always going to grab rebounds. You look at two games, Dwight Powell has six rebounds, six in two games.

Chris Farley:

Yeah.

Kate Constable:

Wow.

Chris Farley:

They are disastrous rebounding the basketball. 43 a game over the last two. They’re just not a good rebounding team. That’s a major advantage they can exploit. I’m going to trust Gobert, just gets back to where he is been. He could get 20 tonight. I think that’s a capable thing for him every night.

Chris Farley:

Where’s the line for rebounds for him?

Jeff Nadu:

15 1/2, it’s high.

Chris Farley:

Oh, it’s high, but it’s still very reasonable.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Kate Constable:

Very doable.

Chris Farley:

For Gobert, yeah.

Kate Constable:

In terms of scoring, I mean, Donovan Mitchell isn’t giving him the ball whatsoever. I think he’s passed it, or has an assist on a Gobert basket once this entire series, which leads me to believe the chemistry on this team is not great right now. I feel like this is just, Utah’s waiting for this season to be over. They’re going to blow things up there. A lot of roster changes. Quin Snyder’s taking over for the Lakers next year. I just don’t trust this Jazz team right now. I could be very wrong, but I’m going to play on the Mavs tonight and take them at plus seven. Warriors and Nuggets tonight in Denver. Warriors are whew, they are hot right now. Laying two on the road. Total is 223. I mean, they looked good in game one. Came back in game two, looked even better. 2-0 lead on the series. Chris, can we just expect more of the same from Golden State tonight?

Chris Farley:

Yeah. Well, I mean, I don’t want to say the same exact thing we said about the Suns and Bucks, because now I’m starting to get cautious about this stuff. But, dominating performances so far from the Warriors and that’s really on both sides of the court. It seems like from the eye test and how you see them guard this Nuggets team, it’s all almost as if it seems easy for Golden State. I mean, they know that they have to try to take Jokic out of the game. That’s what any team tries to do, but the way they’re doing it is really effective. Draymond Green is driving him crazy. This three headed monster on offense that they have now between Poole and Klay and Steph, you have to check yourself as a better because this is a really easy team to like.

Chris Farley:

I mean, they’re fun to watch. They’re nailing threes and everyone’s smiling. Whatever that arena’s called up there now, it’s going crazy. But, I think it’s very legit. I mean, it’s a very tough offense to stop, because unlike Denver, who it’s all predicated around Jokic. Guys are moving around him and it’s not always effective. Golden State, there just doesn’t seem like there’s any ego with this team. There never has. I mean, except for when Kevin Durant was there, but that’s a different story. They just all move around and they space themselves so well, I’m going to have to see proof that Denver can stop that, because I just really don’t see it. I really don’t think they match up well against this team. I thought they were going to match up better. I like Jokic’s supporting cast and what they were doing earlier in the season, but it’s just not working out.

Chris Farley:

I spoke to momentum before on this show. Golden State has a ton of it. And in psychology we know, I mean, this is not intangibles to the point where we can’t prove it. When people have momentum of any sort, especially teams and athletes, they start to believe in things they didn’t believe in before. It adds confidence. You push yourself beyond your limits. That’s where the Warriors are right now. They are thinking they’re a championship team. They think they’re back to form. Everyone’s smiling. Everyone’s having fun. Those are really tough teams to beat. All that to say, I would expect this to be a big Jokic game. He got ejected from that last game obviously. He’s had a lot of struggles and a lot of challenges against this defense. They are back at home. This is a crucial game and he stepped up in these spots before. But, even if Jokic has a monster game, I don’t see them being able to overcome what Golden State can do on both sides of the court. At a pretty short line of minus two, I have to take the Warriors tonight.

Kate Constable:

I feel like Mike Malone and his staff has been just buried in film these last two days, trying to find any angle from the first two games of the series, or their regular season series of how they can stop this Warrior’s team. I don’t think they have an answer. The spacing with Poole, Klay Thompson, Steph Curry, and then you add in Draymond, who’s just basically facilitating that whole offense. Warriors are scary. I mean, without Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray, they don’t have the supporting cast around Jokic and not to mention, Jokic is a minus 45 on this series right now. As much as he is the MVP, likely MVP of this regular season, back to back seasons being MVP actually, I just don’t see him being able to get it done based on the way that the Warriors have been defending him. Then also his supporting cast. I’m with you Chris, I’m going to lay the two with the Warriors on the road tonight. Jeff, do you agree? Can you talk us off this?

Jeff Nadu:

No. I mean, Malone can hope all he wants. I mean, look, I can hope that Kim Kardashian knocks on my door tonight, but she’s probably not going to. I mean, hope’s cool and all, you can pretend. But, at the end of the day, Mike Malone, look, I feel bad for a little bit. I feel bad for Jokic. The truth of the matter is, this has been a constant problem. Jamal Murray can’t stay healthy and he’s had to trot out people that really don’t belong in playoff games, like with all do respect God love him, Jeff Green, Bryn Forbes, Austin Rivers. They’re just not good enough. We had the same problem last year. Facundo Campazzo, nice kid I’m sure, but him against Steph Curry is laughable. I mean, it’s just not a good matchup. It’s been evident in both games and you look at what Kerr and the Warriors have done.

Jeff Nadu:

They’ve completely taken Jokic out of the game. Even if he does drop 31 and 12, it doesn’t matter because no one else really does enough. I’m not worried about Will Barton or Monte Morris or Aaron Gordon. I’m just not worried about these guys. At the end of the day, one of the constant continuing problems for the Denver Nuggets, again has been defensively. They’re just not good enough defensively. Haven’t been last year, haven’t been in the bubble year and haven’t been this year. The problem is Golden State is the best defensive team in the NBA. Steph Curry’s only going to play more minutes. You have to also ask yourself, I mean, how many Warriors fans are going to be in the building tonight? Malone even talked about that. He said, it’s probably going to be half Warrior fans. This game and series are over. It’s one of the reasons I laid the one and a half in this series. This goes a lot like last night. I think Denver will play better like Toronto did, but ultimately Golden State just is too much.

Kate Constable:

Chris, you think this is going to be a series sweep for the Warriors.

Chris Farley:

I think it’s very possible. Steve Kerr coming out and saying that he’s going to increase Curry’s minutes tonight too. Matters might have just got worse there for Denver. Yeah, I mean, I don’t want to do the same thing that we did the previous two days because boy, some of these bets are blowing my mind a little bit. This is still the playoffs. This is a desperate team and it is in Denver. I mean, I guess that has to be a slight uptick for them. Again, anything could happen, but for what Golden State is showing us right now on both sides of the court, holding a very good Nuggets offense historically this season, to under 110 points in two games, winning by great margin. It looks like it’s coming easy to them. What’s going to happen in clutch time? I don’t even know if there’s going to be a clutch time in these games. Yeah, to answer, a long way of answering your question Kate, I think it’s very possible that it’s a sweep. Yeah, I think that’s a damn good bet by Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say one thing and I’m a little surprised by this. I’m trying to understand why the … I mean, what are people seeing, at least bookmakers, that they’re putting these Warriors team totals in like 110, 120. I mean, what has Denver showed? Go back to March. This team can’t defend. They constantly give up 120. Every game, it seems like they get destroyed defensively and to answer someone’s question in the chat, I think the only way the Nuggets are relevant in this game, I mean, you’re going to have to have a huge performance out of Jokic. Your point, rebound, assist over 48 1/2, I think you have to play that. But, I’m surprised. I know the total’s been bet down, the game total. But I mean, is Golden State really not going to get at least to 115? What the hell’s the total at 112, 113 for?

Kate Constable:

Yeah, that’s a very good point, especially with the shooting performances that they’ve had. I guess maybe books think they’re going to regress in shooting a little bit. But I mean, they haven’t showed any signs of that, so I’m not sure why that would be the case, especially with Curry’s minutes increasing. I only see more opportunities for him to score there. That answers our Gobert question. Any other player props, other than Gobert this Nico asks. Chris, I know you’re not really a prop guy, but any player you think could stand out tonight?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I just can’t call myself a prop guy, because I don’t hit them at 100%.

Kate Constable:

100%, like Josh says, yeah.

Chris Farley:

Yeah. But boy, it feels like probably a big Ja Morant game. I think it seems like Ja enjoys being on the road sometimes more, punching these teams in the face a little more and certainly his infiltration in the paint in the last game, that set the tone against the Timberwolves and they were not able to punch back. That’s a system that worked. I mean, it’s worked all year for the Grizzlies. I would expect a lot from Ja. I guess, if you want to hedge a Warriors bet, go for some Jokic props. I think someone put in the chat that it’s around 48 1/2. That’s probably a pretty good line for him. He’s going to have to do everything. To Jeff’s point before, would you rather be on the better team, or the team who has maybe the best player?

Chris Farley:

I mean, Jokic probably is the best player on the floor, but he has a far inferior team. But, he is going to have to do a lot. I mean, that’s why people think he’s the MVP because he has to do so much for his team to win. This would be the spot and hopefully Jokic maybe saw a therapist, or got a massage or something in the off time, which we all need. I’m not making fun of it. But, he needs to calm down a little bit in these games because he’s not showing MVP like demeanor, I’ll put it that way.

Kate Constable:

I think he got a haircut, or was that prior to game two? He has a fresh new cut. I just don’t remember-

Jeff Nadu:

Hey, I’ll tell you something about haircuts. Don’t sleep on a haircut, man. I got a real new, I got a new haircut a couple of weeks ago and I feel like a new man when I go to the bar.

Kate Constable:

It looks great.

Jeff Nadu:

I’ll tell you right now, don’t sleep on the haircut. I will say though, prop wise, I’m starting to wonder about, I mean, I like Gobert, I like the Jokic. Stephen Curry tonight, Chris just alluded to the fact he’s going to play more minutes. I mean he only played what, 23, 24 minutes over the last two games in each? What did he have, three, I think he had three or four threes and then he had six in the other game. We know Steph Curry’s going to shoot at least 10 three point attempts per game. That’s just what he does. You have to go all the way back to 2014, 2015 the last time he didn’t average that per season, per game. I mean, he’s going to shoot a lot of threes. All I need him to make is four of them. I mean, he’s an average 43% shooter in his career. If he’s going to give me those amount of attempts, three point total is three and a half made threes. I’ll take a shot there. I mean, is that ever a bad bet to just say over Steph Curry threes, I mean?

Kate Constable:

No, I don’t think so. You’re not going to win every time, but I think you’ll win more often than you lose and that’s all that really matters.

Jeff Nadu:

Exactly. Exactly.

Kate Constable:

All right. Let’s take a look at our best bets for today. Three games on the slate and we all are in agreement on the Warriors tonight. Chris and I taking a minus two, Jeff playing a money line. I am playing on the Mavs tonight to cover that plus seven and Chris is taking the over in the Grizzlies, Wolves first quarter. Well Jeff, thank you for joining us today and filling in for Josh. Where can we find you? I know you’re on the BetUS MLB Show, but other places?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, you could just follow me on Twitter @JeffNadu, that’s where I’m at. Yeah, baseball every day. We’re having a good time. It’s a long season, but we’re having a good time doing it. Thanks for having me guys. I love doing stuff like this. Show love to these guys. This is hard to do. I mean 700 plays, 800 plays and they have a great record. It’s good stuff. Thanks for having me.

Kate Constable:

Yep.

Chris Farley:

I appreciate it Jeff. Hey, Jeff I appreciate it. I was going to say, if you keep on coming on these shows, you’re going to bring out my Jersey accent a little more here. Listening to you, I find myself saying this, doing that, saying this. I like it.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I noticed that you have a little bit of twist to your voice. I could tell you weren’t from the West Coast or the Midwest.

Chris Farley:

No.

Kate Constable:

Can you tell I am from Minnesota?

Jeff Nadu:

Yes, we know. Definitely.

Kate Constable:

We know.

Chris Farley:

It’s usually not so pronounced Kate, though. You do a good job to keep it in, but you should let it fly sometimes.

Kate Constable:

We’ll think on that one.

Chris Farley:

Next time Jeff comes back, we’ll have really strong accents, okay? That’s what we’ll do.

Kate Constable:

There you go.

Chris Farley:

All right.

Kate Constable:

We can do an accent show, yeah.

Chris Farley:

Okay.

Kate Constable:

All right. You can find Chris at FarleyBets. I am @KateConstable on Twitter and Jeff, like he just mentioned @JeffNadu. We will be back tomorrow to talk about Friday’s games and lead into the weekend, so we will see you then. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Have a great night.

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