Alex Christensen:
Welcome back everybody to the BetUS NBA Show. Kate Constable still on vacation. So Alex Christensen here again, hosting with Chris Farley and Josh. Let’s jump into a little bit of last night. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies could not cover for us, but how deep, what a basketball game. Chris, were you able to get that up on your new cable setup there?
Chris Farley:
I was. The internet was set up two hours before that game and I was stoked to be able to watch any kind of basketball. Yeah, the Grizzlies, I was on the same side as you guys. Felt like that was the right side to be on. Just the Grizzlies couldn’t buy a shot for long stretches of that game. I mean, missing threes, missing free throws, missing layups. That was just the story of the game until the fourth quarter. Then got some typical Memphis Grizzlies comeback action. Ja Morant, that slam dunk might have been one of the best I’ve ever seen. That was just incredible.
Chris Farley:
When they rally together, even with Josh Jackson on the sideline, right, that was a big loss when he fouled out, but they find ways to rally. These two young teams are just showing that they’re young teams, man. They make a lot of mistakes. There’s a lot of turnovers and back and forth. But ultimately, I think the team that has more chemistry and the better overall team won. But boy, that’s another gut punch for the Minnesota Timberwolves who were in control of most of that game.
Chris Farley:
I don’t know if a lot of that was more about them or more about the Grizzlies just making a ton of mistakes and missed shots in that game. But the Timberwolves were nailing a lot of threes, that’s for sure. So you got to give them credit, but that’s stink now and hopefully they can go back home and they can fight.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. Griz only shoot 25% from three, just 41% from the floor. Excited to see what game six looks like. It’s been a fun series. Now, Josh, I know that you have a pretty sizable Grizzlies position here. Do you still feel comfortable? Do you still feel as good about that as you did yesterday?
Josh:
I don’t know what I feel anymore about this series. The more I look at it, the more I am just dead confident that the Grizzlies are immensely better in basically a lot of key categories. They do come to the fore for the most part, but at the same time, there’s just these weird outliers that seem to occur, I guess, with frequency that maybe suggest they aren’t outliers at all, and that Minnesota does, to an extent, have their number in certain elements.
Josh:
One of those obviously being the way that they’re able to generate wide open three point looks and they’re able to knock them down at such a high level. For Minnesota, it’s definitely a bit of a gut punch. I mean, when you finish plus 21 in three point scoring and then still lose the game, it’s not a great look, especially when the other team shot the ball so poorly. So yeah, I think ultimately, I’m still a little bit of the belief that the Grizzlies get it done in game six and they move on and we start looking at the next series with the Warriors.
Josh:
But I wouldn’t be surprised at all anymore if this goes to a game seven, and if it does, then I think this series in particular and this match up in particular, a game seven would just be the ultimate coin flip between these two teams.
Alex Christensen:
It does. Again, with teams with such offensive talent, such little focus on defense, the way the games have been back and forth, it does really feel like anything’s possible. The Miami Heat, they don’t need no Jimmy Butler or Kyle Lowry, taking care of business with only 22 points in the fourth quarter to snooker us from another cover. The only favorite that did cover while winning yesterday, the Phoenix Suns, solid game from them overall. Did you guys have any thoughts on either one of those games?
Josh:
I mean, the Heat getting it done while sitting Jimmy Butler was pretty notable, and the fact that they were able to put such margin between them and the Hawks before that sort of late melt and non-cover in the end was impressive, and I think speaks to the depth of the team, but also just the systematic approach of everyone involved in that organization. They’re such a well-drilled team that they can execute no matter who’s on the floor. Hopefully, resting him and giving Lowry the extra rest comes to fruition for them and that they have them both fully available for the next round is pretty paramount, I imagine.
Josh:
But the Suns did what I think we all expected the Suns do to an extent. It’s one of those games where you look back at it and sort of think, “Why didn’t we all just play the Suns?” That was the spot for them. They step up in those occasions. The Pelicans are still not quite that team just yet, as fun as they’ve been. I think we all fell a little bit victim to riding that Pelicans train a little bit too much.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. Makes total sense. Let’s jump into today’s games. But just before we do, we’ll take a look at our overall records as we do with every show. Unfortunately, not as good as they were yesterday, but still, excuse me, pretty solid overall. Everybody now out with more wins than losses. Again, this includes our regular season picks. But let’s jump into our first game. Again, just two games tonight. So feel free to jump in there, ask us as many questions as you like. You can even ask Josh about props. I know I said that I didn’t like that yesterday. Today, that’ll be okay.
Alex Christensen:
But we’ll start with the Chicago Bulls trying to avoid elimination here in Milwaukee, minus 12 and a half, under 217 and a half or over 217 and a half for a total there. I say the Bulls trying to avoid elimination, but no Lonzo Ball, no Alex Caruso, no Zach LaVine, a lot of Ayo Dosunmu. It seems like it’s going to be tougher here for the Bulls to beat this Bucks team even with, without Khris Middleton. So, Josh, what do you think here? I mean, is there any positivity about the Bulls? I mean, can you talk me out of a Bucks NBA betting?
Josh:
Probably not for a full game. I mean, here I am sitting on a first half Bulls ticket though, so I’ll try and sell you on that if nothing else. But one thing we’ve seen from Milwaukee basically under coach Budenholzer is a clear pattern in how they sort of play through a series. They start slow, they finish really strong. But the one thing that sort of stood out to me when you’re looking back at those games is the first half when they have a team in an elimination situation, they’re pretty sluggish. They don’t necessarily come out at their best.
Josh:
These elimination teams are able to sort of go into half time either with a lead or within one possession. They did that all through last season. They did that the season before as well, or two seasons before, excuse me, discounting the bubble. But I would like to think that the Bulls at least hang around for the first half of this one as well, and sort of follow that trend, just given the way that Milwaukee execute things. It’s in the second half where I think they really put separation between them, especially given the talent disparity in this game with, like you said, Caruso out, LaVine, and obviously Lonzo Ball not taking part in the series. It’ll start to show as the game wears on.
Josh:
In the early goings, maybe we see enough life from Chicago, which I’m hoping for that they can stay within a couple of possessions. A plus seven and a half first half is a pretty big line, in my opinion. Obviously, a 12 and a half is a huge line in an elimination game as well. But given, like you said, the injuries that they’re dealing with, it makes total sense there. So the one problem I think for Chicago offensively is the Bucks seem to have really figured things out defensively in this series. They are having no problem at all stopping Chicago from getting to their spots, shutting down DeMar DeRozan.
Josh:
I think West Matthews has actually done a terrific job there. Jrue Holiday was doing a terrific job as well on Zach LaVine. I don’t see how any of that sort of changes. Maybe, like I said, the fact that there’s a different lineup, they have something to work through in that first half, but ultimately they will work it out, and come the second half, third and fourth quarter, they should put quite some margin between them. So I am hoping that the Bucks wins so I can get this series ticket done. But I think the first half I’m riding with the Bulls, plus seven and a half here, and hoping that we again see the same Milwaukee we usually do against teams facing elimination where it’s a little bit sluggish and slow in that first 24 minutes.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. I like what you said about the different lineup and how it’s more difficult for the Milwaukee Bucks to prepare. They weren’t really maybe thinking about facing this lineup. I think we can thread this needle here a little bit, Josh, because I like the plus seven and a half and that would be good if it was kind of an ugly game. You look at last night, all three games go under, but more specifically, I look at this series, the Bulls scored 114 points in game two. The other three games, they scored 81, 86 and only 95 points. In totals in north of 100 here at 102 and a half. I’m happy to grab a team total under. Again, we’ve seen in these situations, these games could really be grinds, but I think you can get your plus seven and a half. I think I can get my team total under here if it’s kind of an ugly start. Chris, how do you see this game?
Chris Farley:
Yeah, it would be tough for me to play on the Bulls here just because, I’m mean, alluding to what Josh said and what you’re saying, Alex, I like the team total play a lot. I mean, obviously, the Bulls now with a LaVine and Caruso, if nothing else, those two players are big time spark plugs for Chicago. So where’s the energy going to come from? It just feels like the superior defense that the Bucks have been playing, the Bulls with an offensive rating of 88 in the past two games, which if they played that way during the season, that would be historically low.
Chris Farley:
The Bucks, it just feels like they’re having an easy time. Now without LaVine and Caruso, they should just be able to double team to DeRozan, make life difficult for him, put Giannis on Vucevic and it’s a wrap. I don’t know if the Bulls can hang with this Milwaukee Bucks defense the way they’re playing. Obviously, Jrue Holiday stepping up, scoring more points. Josh, maybe he was a listening to you because you called him out I think after game two and he stepped up right away. But the bench of the Bucks too, big time stepping up on that side too, just playing complete team basketball.
Chris Farley:
So I don’t know. It’d just be really hard for me to look at the Bulls in any position here. We know these double digit favorites, a trend here since 2016, they cover at a rate of 58% if they are a double digit favorite. So 10 points or more in the playoffs, this just feels like one of those spots, even on the road, right? This is on the road, right? Yeah. Wait, no, this is at the Bucks.
Alex Christensen:
It’s in Milwaukee.
Chris Farley:
What am I talking about? So that’s even worse. Yeah. That’s even worse for Chicago. After those two straight gut punches in Chicago, now they have to go to Milwaukee. I mean, my goodness, I can’t look at any other side than the Bucks here. I’d be afraid of some props in this game though, because it could be a situation where a lot of players start to sit in the second half if they blow them out in the first half, but to Josh’s point, seven and a half, that’s a lot of points in a playoff game in one half of basketball.
Chris Farley:
The Bucks have basically played really well in one quarter in the first half and let the Bulls hang around in one of those other quarters. So if that happens, the Bulls can certainly keep pace. But I just don’t like it a lot. I mean, we’re going to see a lot more Coby White and Dosunmu in this game and they have been awful together when they’re on the court. So there’s not a lot I can trust in the Bulls tonight.
Alex Christensen:
Makes perfect sense. I didn’t get a chance to double check my source, but I believe game two of this series is the first time the Bulls have beaten the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis on the court in about three or four years. So I don’t think they’re going to double that total tonight. It looks like a nice spot for the Bucks, but the official bets, Josh is going to grab the Bulls here in the first half. Again, I like that handicap. It should be a slow start there. I’ll take the Bulls team total under 102.5.
Alex Christensen:
Next up, the second game of the night, the night cap, the Denver Nuggets after getting the win at home, head to Golden State, again, trying to stave off elimination, minus eight and a half points for the Warriors. The total sitting at 225 and a half. Now, I did mention we’ve had three games that were unders last night. This series, all four games have gone over and they continue to move the total up a little bit, started around 220, got to 222. I think it was 224 last game. You see here, we’re at 225.
Alex Christensen:
I thought about maybe online gambling an over, but as we talked about the dynamics of some of these games, these situations can tend to lead to a more plodding, slower play style here. But Chris, you have a really nice angle here. You think the Warriors get off on a good foot, don’t you?
Chris Farley:
I do. This one heading back to Golden State right after Denver snag game four. If there’s one thing we know about these Denver Nuggets, they’re a really good team when Jokic plays really exceptional basketball and when they get the kind of support that he needs, right? Their bench in particular, average of plus 10 in point differential from their bench players in game four. So a great effort by Denver. But it just feels like they’re walking into a trap tonight. They’re walking into a juggernaut. It’s going to return to Golden State’s home court.
Chris Farley:
Golden State allowed what too many easy shots in that last game. Draymond Green knows that, for sure, who fouled out late in that game, but he is just so important for this team. I think he’s going to have a much easier time today because I think the Warriors are just going to come out and explode, right? I mean, Jordan Poole had his worst outing in game four, and the Warriors were still hanging with the Nuggets at the end of that game and almost won it. Felt like if Draymond Green would’ve stayed in for those final two minutes maybe it’s a different story at the end of that one.
Chris Farley:
But this threesome that we talked about before, right, Poole, Klay, and Steph now, they shot 60% in game two, collectively, 31 of 52 from the field. I think we’re going to just see a very fast pace game from them from the onset where they look to take control of this game immediately. Steph Curry’s playing really well. He’s not going to be on a minutes restriction tonight. He’s getting a lot of those stocks, which is like half steel, half blocks where he just takes it away from the offense. He’s doing that time and time again. I just expect a much better defense of effort from the Warriors tonight.
Chris Farley:
I mean, they played well, but the Nuggets just played really exceptional in game four, obviously their best all-around performance. But now they got to go back to Golden State. Man, this just has clobber spot written all over it. I kind of agree with the line moving down a little bit though. I mean, it’s still a very desperate situation for the Nuggets. They’re on the road, right? They’re going to scratch and claw to try to get this win. So maybe they keep it close at the end. But first quarter minus three and first half minus five, those are pretty giving lines.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, just this is an overwhelming game I think from the Warriors offense against a Nuggets team who, let’s face it, they’re just not built to take on offenses like that. The Warriors can play small ball. They can move the ball around and they get lost really easily. So again, if we see a really, really stellar game from everybody on the Nuggets, Jokic does virtually everything right, then they should be able to hang in this game. But that is just asking a lot from a Nuggets team who’s still without a lot of key players, whereas the Warriors have got some rest now, they’re back home. It’s just a great spot.
Alex Christensen:
It really does feel like that. One of the things I’m struggling to figure out. The last game really stands out, it’s different than the first three. The Warriors finally have more possessions than the Nuggets in the last game by nine. But for the first time in this series, they shoot less than 42% from three, it gets down to 35%. What really sticks out to me is the pace. The first three games, right around a pace of 95, 96. The Nuggets got it all the way up to 103. I wonder if the Warriors can kind of wrangle control of the game again tonight. What do you expect in here, Josh?
Josh:
Yeah, much like you, I looked at that overs and kind of want to get involved. I mean, it took me till game four to get involved in an overs in this series. I’m thinking about doing it again here. Haven’t quite pulled the trigger just because of a couple of things. Like Chris sort of alluded to, if you want that total to clear, it involves the Nuggets being able to replicate that level of efficiency from everyone not named Nikola Jokic. That’s difficult to do on the road.
Josh:
Also, you’re probably going to have to have an efficient shooting night both sides of the basketball, because I do think, like you said, Alex, the Warriors are probably going to slow that down just a little bit and not let themselves get into a shootout and a track meet if you will. So yeah, I would still only lean the overs because the at Nuggets just cannot defend guards and the Warriors have three very, very good high scoring guards. When they’re all on the floor at the one time, it’s just absolutely overwhelming for the Nuggets to deal with.
Josh:
The fact that Kerr has the luxury of running rotations where he can have at least two of those shooters on the floor at any given time to make sure that the spacing is there for whoever it is that’s inside, especially when Draymond’s running sort of that point forward, it makes life extremely difficult. The flexibility that they have with those lineups I think has shown throughout the duration of this series.
Josh:
So everything for me says Golden State here in terms of them being able to score the ball with a lot more reliability than I think what Denver will be. But the Nuggets, they’ve been in this situation so many times in the past and they consistently love to play with their backs against the wall in the playoffs. They always seem to show up. I don’t know what they do, but something just seems to tell me that they’re going to hang around long enough in this one, cover the line and probably make a game of it down the stretch.
Josh:
So I do like the Warriors to start out the stronger of the two teams here. I think the Nuggets will have that little bit of adjustment on the road again. Like I said, especially given the fact that outside of Jokic, there’s nothing particularly reliable about what they have available. If they can go on a run in that sort of second half and make things close, then they’ll take their chances that Jokic can do the right things offensively and keep them in the game.
Josh:
But you’re asking a lot of one player against what is still a pretty juggernaut team defensively overall. Like you said, as long as Draymond can stay on the floor, I think him and Kevon Looney inside have done a pretty terrific job overall dealing with Jokic. So if I had to play, I’m playing the overs here. But yeah, you can make pretty strong arguments I think for both sides of pretty much both total and line here.
Alex Christensen:
Yeah. It’ll be a fun game to live bet. Even if Golden State does start out well, I won’t mind backing the Nuggets. We’ve seen them stay in games. When they’re down 15, 20 points, they continue to fight, but I like these looks. The official plays we have, just Chris here, he’s got the Warriors first quarter minus three, first half minus five. Now, looking at the Q&A here, we jump back to the Bulls game. Kind of an interesting question I think not only specifically, but just from the general topic of trying to evaluate a player and what the impact of that player is.
Alex Christensen:
But [Colby 00:18:29] who’s always in the chat, we appreciate all your questions, asking, “With Alex Caruso out, is the Bulls offense potentially more potent? He is not someone that is actively trying to shoot. He’s not really an offensive force.” I would say, Colby, most nights, yes. But when you start to look at who’s behind him tonight, who’s going to fill in, probably not. If we were going to get some more LaVine minutes, if we were going to get a little bit more Lonzo Ball minutes to kind of fill in there, great. But it’s going to be a lot again, Ayo and Coby, as Chris mentioned earlier, which isn’t necessarily the best combo. In general, Josh, how do you evaluate Caruso and his impact on the Bulls?
Josh:
Yeah, really good question. One thing I will say immediately is, like you said, Alex, I think if LaVine was in and it would result in basically more Zack LaVine minutes and potentially more plays being run for both him and DeMar DeRozan, then absolutely, I can see a world where the offense is a little bit more efficient. It might be a little bit faster paced with White getting a large chunk of minutes as well in the rotation. He likes to push tempo and get shots up early in the shot clock.
Josh:
The one thing I will say though, is it’s probably going to be more erratic which is strange given the fact that they struggled so much and they’ve gone on droughts. But you get two guards now who neither one of them necessarily are reliable as scorers and neither one of them particularly great play makers either, particularly in half court situations. So it could be one of those situations where you get five minutes of really good basketball offensively from Chicago and they look great, and like you said, they’re a little bit more efficient just because they have five guys on the floor who can score the basketball and want to score the basketball.
Josh:
But the flip side is you might follow that up with five minutes of absolutely zero field goals being scored and a lot of turnovers being made as a result, just because they’re probably going to try and force things a little bit too much and they don’t have that experience in those roles. So it’s one where I would in this situation lean towards probably being a clunkier offense over the course of the full 48 minutes.
Josh:
But yeah, if the other rotation pieces were there, and LaVine particular was available, and like Alex said, Lonzo Ball was available and you could sort of just lean on those guys to play larger chunks of minutes, then I could definitely see a world where offensively, yeah, things probably would work out better for Chicago.
Alex Christensen:
Chris, anything to add about Caruso or just handicapping a player’s impact in general?
Chris Farley:
Well, just as far as Caruso goes, I think we often forget too, I mean, these are bigger spots for him, right? Obviously, he is not going to be in this game, but coming from the Lakers, coming to the Bulls and I was like, “Wow, this guy probably was a much better player than we were realized.” But I don’t think he was entirely comfortable at that point guard spot, especially filling in for Lonzo Ball. I mean, that’s a really tough player to fill in for and to try to replicate the kind of fluidity that we saw early in the season.
Chris Farley:
So now with Coby White running it, I foresee a situation where this is the Bucks at home, Fiserv Forum’s going to be going nuts. The Bucks probably get out to a quick lead. Now, that’s high pressure on Coby White’s shoulders who’s like a 1D, the point guard, really. He really doesn’t look very comfortable there sometimes. So the Chicago Bulls just don’t really have a competent experienced point guard to handle those pressure situations. Whoever’s at point is going to be responsible for getting that offense jump started and trying to catch up to the Bucks. It’s just not something that I trust.
Chris Farley:
So there’s not a lot that I trust about the Chicago Bulls, especially on the offensive side tonight, unfortunately. So I mean, if it was me, I wouldn’t be looking at any plays there. I think that’s what kind of makes the pace and the total so hard to figure out too, right? We got some players who could really help the Bulls on defense, especially Caruso. But I agree with you guys, now that the pace should be picking up, without them in there, but the Bucks have been so good on defense, so just a lot of competing narratives there. I totally agree with Josh about the Zach LaVine stuff too. I mean, if he was still in the game, then maybe we see an even more efficient Bulls offense, but again, that’s a big maybe. They just haven’t looked very great.
Alex Christensen:
Another question from one of our regulars there in the chat, Aaron [Rod 00:22:44] asks, “What do you guys think about the impact of the extra rest here for the Celtics?” Since I’m sick of hearing Josh talk about the Celtics, Chris, what do you think about this? Just evaluating the impact of rest in general, the age old question, do you get rest or do you get rust?
Chris Farley:
All right. Yeah, I think it’s huge. I think the Celtics have proven something all year, is that this is, well, the second half of the year, especially, is that they’re going to come well prepared and they’re going to play very consistent basketball night in and night out. Again, I’ve talked a lot about Ime Udoka on the show and how much I like him. I think his stock has risen and risen throughout the season. Obviously, it’s at an all-time high now. They just swept the Nets.
Chris Farley:
So I think there’s a lot of confidence. Yes, you want to kind of ride that confidence. You want to ride that momentum into the next series, but this is a team that’s been buttoned up really since January. So I don’t see that having an effect on them. A good comparison that I like to make is Sean McVay, right? In the NFL, he loves to sit his Rams players at the end of the year and it rarely makes a difference. That’s a sign of a great coach because he makes sure that his players are still very well prepared for that first matchup. I think that’s going to be the case with Ime Udoka.
Alex Christensen:
You make a good point about the impact of a coach. I mean, all right, Josh, are you worried about the Celtics having too much rest? Or is this a good opportunity for Robert Williams to sort of get right, old man Horford to get some ice on those knees and whatnot? I mean, are you worried or is this a good deal?
Josh:
I’m not worried. I’m really thankful that they’re going to get the extended rest. I think it’s situational from team to team, but if we’re talking Boston specifically, I mean, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum had to log some pretty big minutes this season, especially in the back half of the season. So the fact that they’re able to rest up, like you said, Al Horford for getting some rest, Rob Williams getting some rest after coming back a couple of games from his meniscus tear, it all bodes really well I think for the Celtics.
Josh:
But I can see in other situations, had the script been flipped and the Nets were the ones to sweep, maybe they’re the team that comes out with a bit of rust. I think they’re the ones that probably need all the sets that they can get given the limited time that they played together over the course of the full season. But in this particular instance, yeah, as a Celtics fan, I’m ecstatic. I love the fact that they get the extra rest and I think that it’ll bode well for them in the next series.
Alex Christensen:
Well, thanks everybody for the questions. Again, make sure you get those in. We always love getting some of your thoughts and we always find some good angles there. But let’s wrap up today by taking a look at our best bets. Again, just two games tonight, but plenty of bets for you. In the Bulls game, Josh likes the Bulls first half plus seven and a half. I’ll take a Bulls team total under 102 and a half for the full game. Chris has the Warriors to start hot, first quarter minus three, first half minus five.
Alex Christensen:
Thanks again, everybody for watching. Make sure you follow all of us on Twitter. Josh is @puntschool, Chris @Farleybets and myself @_noops. We’ll be back tomorrow with a different host. I know last time I said that, he wasn’t on the show because his internet crapped out. But it looks like everything’s okay. We’ll see how it goes. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook!
