Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 NBA Finals Picks [June 7th] NBA Predictions & Best Basketball Betting Odds

Skee Profit:

Yeah, I’m doing well. I want to… Well yeah, the last play I had on this show I believe was a winner, so trying to keep that going. We’ve made it from, what, down 20 games, personally, to end in positive and I know the show continues to keep that record getting better. So happy that we were able to do that for all the watchers and hopefully we can continue to do that today.

Jay Money:

That’s a fact. Let’s keep it going today. Chris, how you doing over there my brother? Everything cool with you?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, I’m good man. Part of me, I think we were talking about this before Jay, part of me wants the NBA season to be over. I’m like, “I’m tired guys.”. I just, I want to move on to summer sports, but I can’t complain that it’s 1-1 and this series just got even better. So let’s get some wins today boys. And I think this is going to be a really fun series to keep watching.

Jay Money:

Exactly. Let’s try our best to get to some cash in this one. I definitely think we’re going to get to at least six, seven games in this one for sure. Definitely think we see a long series. Probably going to see a split here in Miami. It’s just how it’s going to work down, but first, let’s take a look at that best bed record guys. We’ve been turning along all season here, started out pretty bad, now we are up over 45 games, over 500 in this one guys. Total of 934 NBA picks, 480 wins, 435 losses and 19 pushes as well. Like I say, that’s good for 45 games, over 500. Let’s try to close out the season and see if we can get to the milestone of 50 games over 500. I know it doesn’t sound like a ton, but over a course of a season, especially NBA regular season, it’s actually a pretty good record there, especially for all four of us, all five of us in this one guys.

But let’s go ahead and break the game down guys. I’m sure people can’t wait to see what we’re liking in this pivotal game three. In this one, we got the Denver Nuggets laying three points on the road versus the Miami Heat in this one. Getting back three points at the house, if you’d like to go the money line route, the Denver Nuggets are laying minus 150 on the money line, if you’d like them to get the game three win or you can get back plus 130 if you’d like to go with the Miami Heat in this one. Over and under sitting at 214.5 Points in this one Skee. How are we looking at this game my brother. Obviously Nuggets took the 1-0 lead, then the Heat come back in and steal game two in Denver, so series tied 1-1. The Heat do have the home court advantage. Now Skee, do you think we see a little zigzag here or you think the Heat can take two straight games in this series?

Skee Profit:

Well, the stats say when the series is tied, the team that goes on to win game three wins the series. And who do I think is the better team? Who do I think is going to win the series? I would say Denver, so I would expect a little bit of a zigzag and I think it starts in the first quarter. You looked at how the Nuggets started that last game, really lackadaisical. Mike Malone talked about the effort in his post-game interview, so I’m pretty sure everybody’s going to be focused and ready to throw that first punch for tonight and I’m just really interested to see what adjustments he’s going to bring, especially on the defensive end. Just can’t be letting those guys shoot those open threes like he did in that last game or like they did in that last game.

So, first I want to get in and get out with the Nuggets first quarter. Everybody knows how good of a coach Spoelstra is. It doesn’t mean the Nuggets can’t win the game, but just personally I don’t want anything to do after 24 minutes. Let Spoelstra make his adjustments and whatever happens happens. So I like the Nuggets in the first quarter and as far as the total is concerned, just going off what I said before, the Heat shot 49% from three, the Nuggets shot 39% from three. The game barely squeaked over the total in game two. So I think we see a little bit of regression, as far as the shooting from both sides, and I think the main focus from the Nuggets, from both teams here, is just the defense.

We know the Heat are going to play that zone and they probably will even make even more adjustments. And I like Jimmy on Jamal Murray, seemed like that bothers him or slows him down a little bit as far as scoring the ball. So a lot of things here to me line up for an under. I look at the pace from game one to game two, we saw it drop even more. So if they continue to play slow, which our guy [inaudible 00:05:21] let us know Jay that Jamal Murray in his postgame interview said they want to be more deliberate with the ball going against that zone defense, so they can try to get better shots. So I think it’s a slow pace game. Defensive game. Under is the way to go and Nuggets throw the first punch.

Jay Money:

Man, I hope so, because Nuggets, we saw this Heat come out and be the worst… They don’t necessarily do it in the first three quarters, have a negative net rating for the first three quarters for the whole playoffs. It’s that fourth quarter where they really make their run and then when, you could say, adjustments, you could say teams getting fat and happy or you could say the Heat are just… Sometimes they’ll get down by 15 points and they still come back. So they just have that never quit in them. Only thing I don’t like about the Nuggets, they get a big lead and can’t really just put their foot on the people’s necks in this one, but hopefully after getting smacked around in game two, losing home court advantage, if you want to win this series, you better bring your ass to fucking play tonight, Chris. How we looking at this game three my guy? Are we liking the spicy Nuggets in this one?

Chris Farley:

Sounds like the Nuggets should have you at their bench, Jay. You’d be following them up. I love that. Yeah, but no I agree with a lot of the things that Skee said. Nuggets came out and scored 23 points in the first quarter, went down 7-0 really quickly, didn’t score in the first two minutes and at home, you just don’t see that from Denver very often, but that’s Spoelstra, that’s the Heat, that’s them responding once again and playing that style of defense that they can. But like you said earlier, Jay, I think we’re going to just see a seesaw of activity in these NBA Finals and even though the pace dropped in that last game, I think the emphasis for Denver is going to be getting off to a quick start and you see in a lot of these NBA Finals, or these NBA playoff games, the total equates to how the game goes early.

Now it could slow down, it could slow down the third quarter and the fourth quarter, especially the fourth quarter, but I think we’re going to see a pretty high scoring first quarter too. I took over 54.5 in that and it’s up to 55.5 in most books now, so I don’t like it as much, but I think that one could get closer to 60 and I think that’s going to be the theme throughout this whole contest, is Denver needs to find ways to consistently score. And you had guys like Jamal Murray, 18 points in that last game, Michael Porter Jr., five points in game two, and a lot of that is the Heat defense, but they’re better shooters than that. They’re going to get theirs in this game, I think. They’re going to have better performances and we all know too, Jokic and the Nuggets, they’re not as good, they’re not as effective and efficient when he’s scoring more points. It’s when he’s able to facilitate, be that commander and I think we see a return to what they do best.

Not for nothing, the Nuggets offensive rating has been 120.3 in the NBA playoffs, on the road even better than their rating at home in the NBA playoffs, which is interesting, because we know how great they’ve been at home on offense all season, but they can step up in these spots. I think they’re going to step up right away in this game, so I’m going to go with the over, because I do think it drives the total over in that regard, as the Heat continue to catch up, something that we see from game one or something that we already saw from game one. And I’m also going to go with the Nuggets. Like you said Jay, back and forth battle, coaches responding, teams with high chemistry and the Heat have shown, after they have a great defensive performance like that, which takes a lot of physicality, a lot of effort, sometimes they start off a little slower after that. I think the first three quarters we’re going to see a lot of efficiency from Denver and on the other end, I think I shared it on Twitter today, but astoundingly Denver isn’t covering 43 out of the 57 3 pointers that Miami has shot so far. Those have been open looks for the Miami Heat.

If they keep on getting those looks at home, more of those shots are going to drop. Especially because they haven’t exactly been effective throughout the NBA playoffs so far shooting from beyond the arc, so they’re… Actually they have been really good, but not game one of this series. So I think they go back to that. I like an over tonight. I like the Nuggets. Again, like you said Jay, you guys have said so much great stuff, but I think I’m probably going to look at Miami in game four, but I think the seesaw continues in this one guys and we see Jokic do a typical Jokic performance and we see Jamal Murray score a lot more points, which we’ve seen when he can do that and the rest of the guys are just doing their thing, the Nuggets are really hard to stop.

Jay Money:

Yeah, that’s a fact there man. Jamal Murray definitely has to be one of the catalysts. You can’t just let Jokic be the only person that’s scoring out there. Obviously, Michael Porter Jr’s going to have to have a lot better game, because when he is making shots, then he’s locked in on defensive end as well. KCP, you can’t be fouling three-point shooters out there, giving them… You lost the game by three points and you foul two three-point shooters. See what I’m saying? Gave him six points like that, actually fouled out the game. It’s crazy cause KCP is the only guy on the team that really has the championship experience and it’s crazy that he was making so many boneheaded plays in that game man. So I do think the Nuggets got a little fat and sassy, a little fat and happy in game two, just thinking things were going to be too easy, it’s going to be a cakewalk.

No. The Nuggets are the type of team that needs to get smacked in the face first. They got smacked in the face in game two, but got down double digits, still came all the way back to making… Really had a chance to tie the game up and win it overtime, they probably get it there. So hopefully for a little bit less boneheaded plays, a little bit more locked in. You need Murray to be a scorer in this one. I know he said he want to get MPJ into his shooting rhythm, but forget that Murray, you get into your rhythm first, then you get Michael Porter Jr. You need Murray and Jokic to be the best players on the court. That’s the path to success for the Nuggets in this one. Skee, what are you possibly… I’m taking them in the first half. Skee, what are you possibly thinking them in the first half as well? If you like Nuggets early in this one, you probably liking them first quarter, first half as well, Skee. What do you possibly think about the Nuggets in the first half of this one?

Skee Profit:

Yeah I would agree. I might have to go make a wardrobe change and put out one of them Jay Money shirts man, throw the smack city on there.

Jay Money:

Let’s go.

Skee Profit:

I’d go first quarter, first half. I really would want to stay away from the full game. I feel like even if I take first quarter, first half, I can go back and do a second half bet for the rest of the game if I feel like they’re really going to take advantage. But the only thing I’m going to mention is I chose first quarter just because I feel like Jokic plays majority of the first quarter and when he goes to the bench, I just don’t want to deal with it.

Jay Money:

Nah, it’s a good point man. Jokic, they say he is in one of the best shapes in the league. You get your ass out there and play the whole 48 minutes. This is the Finals man. The season’s almost over. You got to put everything on the line, man. I was telling my son yesterday, if you want to win, you have to give it everything you got man. The whole time that you out there, give it everything you got. If they really want to win, I need to see these guys playing 42, 43, 44 minutes man. As long as you’re not in foul trouble, you better have your ass out there.

One thing I can say, I don’t really like the Nuggets bench like that Chris. I know Braun, Brown, however you call it, not Bruce Brown but Braun, the guy from Kansas. I know he can play some really great defense, but I just feel like his uncertainty on offense sometimes can really hurt him man, but that’s their bench. They’re not going to go deeper into it, even though I think that they should. But hopefully the Nuggets come to their senses and say, “Look, our starting five is better than ours.”, but when it comes to the bench minutes, the Heat are just smashing them boys, Chris. So I feel like the Nuggets need to come to their senses and say we need to play our starting five. As long as we’re not in foul trouble, making bonehead plays, we need to play our starting five, man, at least north of 35 minutes Chris. What do you possibly think about that?

Chris Farley:

No I agree. I think coaches and we see this, even in the NBA playoffs, they over strategize, overanalyze. Steve Kerr was doing that, just putting in a few too many bench players at really crucial parts of these series. I think we’re going to see that starting five stay in there for probably a lot more at crucial times in this game, unless they gain a lead. But just to capitalize on a few things you’re saying Jay, and not to get off on too much of a rant here, but the reason why I like this to be a seesaw in the NBA Finals is because you do have two teams who deserve to be here, as far as their intangibles go. What have we seen from Boston? What have we seen from the Knicks, who fell apart? The Lakers eventually fell apart. Is these are teams that haven’t really…

Boston’s been together for a while, but they don’t have a true leader. They fall apart. The Lakers are a newer team, the Suns, newer parts, they fell apart. These are two teams that know each other. They know who the leaders are on the court, the role players know what they’re supposed to do and they respond to their coaches. Teams like that, you can count on them responding after a bad performance and I just think it’s going to keep on going back and forth and that’s why this series will probably end Denver 4-3. Because we’ll just see, they have an extra opportunity at home and I think the Heat, it’s going to be really hard to beat them, but I think that’s a decent way to look at this series. Just look at each team, where intangibly they’re very good, expect them to respond almost every time. And that’s why I really like Skee’s and Jay’s angle too on this show, is just early. After what they did in that last game, they’re going to come out early and they’re going to respond.

Jay Money:

Yeah I hope so man. I’m on that full game with you as well Chris. I did get a little bit better number. I took it as soon as game two ended., You see what I’m saying? So it actually and a half opened at-

Chris Farley:

At 1.5?

Jay Money:

Yeah, it opened at 1.5, some spice. Man you could have got the money line at minus 115. You see what I’m saying? So the number’s coming up, I’m glad to see that happen. I know that the Heat, we respect them as well. I just feel like the Nuggets, this is their series, this is their time. They’ve never made it to the NBA Finals. They made it to the ABA finals. They’ve never made it to the NBA Finals. They’ve never won one as well. The Heat have… I know for a fact they have at least three championships over there man. The Nuggets can get one. I like to route for teams that’s never won it before man. I need to see them win their first ever championship this year. The city’s going to go crazy. Just a few more notes on the full game. The Nuggets are 4-0 against the spread last four in Miami. They’re also 73 against the spread last 10 games, coming off a loss and the Heat are also only two and five against the spread in their last seven games, coming home after being away from the house for a week or more here.

So, remember they went to Boston for game seven, got it done there. Flew straight to Denver, so they’ve been away from the house for about eight or nine days here now. Hopefully they’ve taken a little bit getting used to as well, know the Heat hadn’t been the best at the house here as well. I need the Nuggets in this one. I need them early and often in this one Skee. Our guy Skee, coming with the under, 14.5. He’s also taken Nuggets in the first quarter, minus one. And give me Nuggets in the first half, minus 1.5. And our guy, Chris says he’s going with the over, 214.5, but he’s also rocking with the Nuggets in the full game. We have a collective trifecta spot here. Let’s fucking get this cash guys.

Let’s go over here to get to some questions in this one, guys. Got to bring the energy man. Got to bring the energy, because they hopefully bring the energy and it translate to the plays in this one guys. But let’s get to some Q&A in this one. First question up. F Urka says, “Vincent PRA, over 19.5.”. Any thoughts on that Skee?

Skee Profit:

I haven’t really been on these player props. The ones that come to my mind are Jamal Murray assist, just because he said he wants to get MPJ involved and he’s going to play with the ball majority of the time and if Jimmy’s on him, he probably be dishing a little bit more than scoring. So Jamal assist. Jokic, I’m not sure what to do with him, but he talked about getting Michael Porter Junior involved and after that last game, when they see he doesn’t do anything, if he doesn’t score, maybe they feed him, so he can finally play some defense and get some rebounds. So Michael Porter Junior, points. Jamal Murray, assist. Something like that would be what I look at. Also, Bam assist. That’s been pretty consistent.

Jay Money:

That’s a great point man. Something I forgot to mention, man maybe the Nuggets need to go to the zone or something. You a little extended, 1-3-1 or 3-2 zone or something. If you having such hard time chasing these guys around on the screens and stuff, flip the script on Miami’s ass. They like to run zone all the time man, bust a zone out on their ass man. So Malone, it’s on them to react now and that’s why I think there’s going to be a zigzag series. The Nuggets, they get fat and happy after wins and then they do like to bounce back after getting smacked in the face as well. So that’s just one quick key point to me. Personally on this one, I don’t want no fucking Heat tops. Now how about that? All the motherfuckers. I hope they go under. Chris, what do you think about Gabe Vincent PRA, going over 19.5 my guy?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, no I think that’s about right where it should be. Like Skee, I’d be looking at Jamal Murray, points. I’d be looking at Michael Porter Junior points and interestingly what was Jokic’s line to lead this series in assist, because right now he is behind. Jamal Murray has 20 I believe and he has 18. Jokic only getting four assists in game two, so you probably have to look out for him to get a ton of assists tonight and change the way that he plays a little bit, because that is when the Nuggets play best, is when he’s mostly facilitating, taking the easy buckets when he can, but when he has to hold the team on his shoulders, we know the way some things can go and I think the Heat forced him into that in that last game.

So I would look at Jokic assist, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. overs in their points. I really don’t know what to do with the Miami Heat, because I think this could be a letdown spot where two or three players don’t… Not a let, it’s still the NBA Finals for God’s sake, but you know what I mean. The teeter totter of the NBA Finals. I think a few players might play under their usual averages, so I also wouldn’t want to touch the Heat and it’s not just because you got me fired up Jay. I agree with you on that one.

Jay Money:

Yeah, no I know it’s the NBA Finals, but possibly still a little bit of a let-down spot. You still got to come home and take care of business. You got a ton of things to do when you’ve been away for a week. I know these guys have nannies, they got accountants, all this type stuff. You still got to take care of stuff when you get back to the house. It’s a lot different than being on the road in this one guys. So that segue ways us into the next question though Chris, when you said Jokic assist. Our guy Jr is in the chat, is asking us, “Will Jokic hit over 9.5 assists and hit over 11.5 rebound?”.

My guy basically asking us that we want all Jokic props. I would probably just go with assist in that one. I’m going full Skee Profit. I don’t give a damn about no props in this game. I’m trying to cash the sides. You see what I’m saying? Props, it’s the NBA Finals. There’s going to be players that have a bad game, going to be players that have a great game. Trying to pinpoint exactly who, I think you’re playing with fire. I hope you guys cash all your props, but no props for me, Skee. What do you think? Do you think Jokic possibly has a game where he goes over his assists?

Skee Profit:

I feel like I’m just going to be talking just to talk. I don’t want to just tell you guys anything and then you guys go and bet it. I don’t feel strongly about Jokic props. I feel more strong about the Nuggets in the first quarter.

Jay Money:

Let’s go. I’m right there with you and we keep it real with you guys. We keep it real. We like some props, we tell you how we feel. In these NBA Finals, it is really hard to pinpoint, like I just said, really who’s going to have that grade A game. Chris, would you agree?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, we’re trying to stack up same game parlays here I think, which I appreciate. Go for it. Go for a same game parlay, try to win 20K tonight ladies and gentlemen. But here’s the thing, that doesn’t happen very often. You don’t hit those very often and we don’t want to lead you astray. I think we already said some of the props that we would lean towards, but I’m with you guys. Again, because it’s the NBA Finals too, I think volatility goes up. This isn’t just standard regular season, you’re just churning out the stats. Jokic is getting triple doubles every night. It’s not quite that. These are defenses that are going to play better. They’re going to be more physical, shots are going to be harder. And now, that being said, I do like the over tonight, but we’re in a position here where it’s still pretty low at 214.5, so y’all want to take overs, go ahead, stack up those same game parlays. But as a professional, I would lean away from that and I would go towards more of the side bets on this one. I think we got the Nuggets in a lot of ways here tonight. Hopefully they don’t let us down.

Jay Money:

Yeah, if you like donating money to the books, then I’d say do some same game parlays. If you like your money, in all this, I would never bet a same game parlay. It’s just some of my advice there. We’ve been doing this for a while guys. Don’t do it my guy, just don’t bet any same game parlays. Next question from our guy Phil. It’s not really a question, but it sounds like he’s liking Michael Porter Jr., under 14.5 points. I do not agree. I think he goes over his 14.5 points Skee. You want to bet on the guys that had a bad game in the last one. I think Michael Porter Jr. comes out with some fire tonight, Skee. Would you agree?

Skee Profit:

I agree. After he got called out for his effort by the coach, Jamal Murray saying he got to get him going, I would think he scores today.

Jay Money:

He’s going over his 14.5. Sorry Phil. What do you think Chris?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, the biggest thing to anyone who’s played basketball or really any sport I guess, when you’re not in your head is when you perform best. When you’re not thinking about it. And Michael Porter Jr’s probably pretty pissed off after game two. Look at what Max Strus did in game two. Ultimately he wasn’t making many shots, but he came out on fire. He got over his point total in that one after a really bad game one, where he missed every single shot. So when you get out of your head and you’re just motivated to put some points up and play better, which is how Michael Porter Jr. should be tonight, I think he’s in a good position to go over. Again, not necessarily the same game parlay suggestion, but I would lean over.

Jay Money:

And last question from our guy Jr here once again, “KCP, over one and a half threes?”. I hope so, Skee. He made some boneheaded plays in game two as well. I think KCP, the only guy with championship experience bounces back tonight Skee. He’s going over the one and a half threes. What do you think?

Skee Profit:

I like it. It’s either going to be him or MPJ, and with it being on the road… We like MPH too. Maybe it’s both. I like it. I can’t talk you off KCP.

Jay Money:

I like both, Chris. I would bet KCP’s over one and a half threes. Chris, any thoughts?

Chris Farley:

Yeah, it’s just funny, because we are legitimately aggregating the same game parlay here. I got Jamal Murray assist, I got Michael Porter Jr over, I got KCP over three. So yeah, I also lean over. I think this is a game where it really makes sense that he gets that over, because I think the Nuggets offense is just going to operate at a higher level tonight. We’ve seen that from them all season. That’s been one of the most… If there’s one thing that’s been consistent this season, it’s a Nuggets offense always rediscovers their rhythm, so I do trust that tonight. I do like it. I’m not betting it though.

Jay Money:

That’s a fact right there guys. And so I say, we always suggest plays, but we will never suggest parlay, maybe a two team max, under parlay, but not really suggesting any same game parlays. If you’d like to, that’s on you guys, but just know that it’s like playing a lottery ticket out there guys. But that’s it for the questions in this one guys. That’s it for the rants on same game parlays. Let’s get out of here. Recap the best bets. Let’s try to get to this cash guys. Our guy Skee, rocking with the under 214.5 Nuggets and Heat game three. He’s also taking the Nuggets in the first quarter, minus one. Get in and get out like hot potato. I’m also, give me the Nuggets in the first half. I like Skee’s play on the first quarter. I like Chris’s play on the full game as well. Let’s make it a collective trifecta spot here.

Our guy Chris said he’s taking the Nuggets Heat over 214.5 and give him Nuggets in the full game in this one. Sounds like we’re eating chicken today guys. Sounds like we got to go get some nuggets, make some homemade nuggets in this one guys. Let’s get some cash. I’m your host Jay Money. For our guy Skee Profit, for our guy Chris Farley as well, make sure you guys are following us on Twitter. Hit the like button, subscribe to the YouTube channel, go check out BetUS sportsbook as well. Let’s try to take them to smack city guys. We will win. We’re back tomorrow. Let’s go get some cash.