Kate Constable:
Good afternoon. Welcome in to the BetUS NBA Show. We have Alex Christiansen, Chris Farley and Kate Constable joining you today.
Kate Constable:
Yesterday was just an absolute disaster for the Miami Heat. There is really no way around it. Only 11 points in the first quarter and it took merely half the quarter for them to even score at all. Alex, what did you make of that game?
Alex Christiansen:
Well, I did live bet the Heat to win the first quarter, like plus eight and a half or something, and that was nice because I recouped just about all the money that I ended up giving back on NBA betting the Heat for the game. And, I was joking before the show. I mean, I’m still waiting to see if we get these Heat bets refunded. I mean, that was just… I know that they weren’t getting a lot of good opportunities, but they weren’t really trying very hard. I mean, Lowry and Tucker were reaching a lot as opposed to moving. That’s one of the best ways you can kind of assess a team’s effort or assess a team’s level fatigue-wise. Are they moving their feet? Are they moving their body on defense? Are they reaching out here, reaching out here? It was a lot of that.
Alex Christiansen:
The Heat really looked like they were happy maybe to have home court back and just, you know, let’s go back to Miami. We still have to win two out of three and two are in Miami. I think we’re going to be okay. So, maybe that’s what it was, but what a mess.
Kate Constable:
An absolute… Yeah. Disaster. Especially for the starters. Only 18 points combined. Victor Oladipo had 18 points himself at halftime. He finished with 23. And, Chris, I think yesterday you said you were going to maybe take some props on Oladipo, thinking that he would have a big game.
Chris Farley:
Yeah, and there I go. I said it and I didn’t take it myself. So, dumb move by me. But, Oladipo is stepping up. I guess he was about the only one who did a little bit in that game. You know, the score at halftime was 14 to one. Like, what is…? This isn’t… What I’m, I guess, most upset about… Obviously, I lost my bets as well and I absolutely blame the Heat for that because you can’t anticipate a team scoring one point in six minutes in the first quarter of a game. At least, I… I’m not… You know, it’s not a part of any of my models.
Kate Constable:
Yeah.
Chris Farley:
So, I can’t do that. But, this is just some poor quality NBA playoff basketball right now and I’m getting a little sick of these games that teams are going up almost right away by 20 points and then… I mean, at least the Warriors are coming back. Right? So, that’s… That’s good for them when they’re down. But, I don’t know. And then, the free throw disparity. In these last two games, the Boston Celtics have been to the free throw line 68 times. The Heat have been to the free throw line 28 times.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. Something seems a little off there.
Chris Farley:
It seems a little off. You know, there’s a little bit of disparity there. Now, is that the reason why the Heat lost last night? Nope. The Heat… I mean, the Heat just didn’t show up. You know? So, I don’t think we can blame it on that. But, the Celtics really didn’t do anything that well. They shot 23% from beyond the arc. They just… They… You know, they weren’t that great in that game. You know, Tatum really didn’t show up again. He wasn’t that impressive. So, you know, they were without Marcus Smart. So, it was just… It was just a weird game. I guess it’s a Scott Foster game. Everyone knew that it was going to be extended in some way. You know, the powers that be want this to go seven games. I don’t know.
Chris Farley:
But, you know how I like to stir the pot on this show sometimes, so let me just say this. Maybe this is what we get because for a while, we’ve been sick of LeBron James. He’s always in the playoffs. He’s always in the title games. Oh, he’s always in there. But, when you have a villain like LeBron and when you have epic teams who give high quality basketball, we don’t see basketball like this as much, I don’t think. Right? We see more competition, more heat. And so, we’re just seeing a lot of developing younger teams right now and then sometimes it’s amounting to a pretty poor product.
Chris Farley:
I’m not saying it’s all because LeBron’s not in the playoffs, believe me. But, you know, sometimes we miss our big stars, I think. You know? Because, they’re… Except for… Except for the Warriors, who are obviously bringing some championship DNA into the playoffs, these are a lot of teams that are still figuring things out.
Kate Constable:
Yeah, and a lot of teams that have been here before but maybe haven’t been successful in these spots or it’s been a while since they’ve been here. Alex, do you agree with that take, that maybe this is a little bit of just uncharted territory for some of these teams which is why we’re getting such lopsided scores?
Alex Christiansen:
It’s a combination of a lot of things. I believe you kind of start with… I actually would push back a little bit on the lopsided score thing. You’ve had one game in each of these series that were absolute clunkers, that I mean, I don’t wish on anybody. That game last night… You look at the… I believe it was game one of the Dallas/Golden State series. You could just… Those were brutal. And, it’s hard to sort of pick apart what’s going on there. I don’t know whether it’s teams making a strategic choice to try to focus on things and part of it is… I do agree with Chris’ overall sentiment, though. If you look at the teams that are left here, these are not the teams that everyone was expecting.
Alex Christiansen:
If you go back and look through a futures all year, I mean, before Golden State had that hot start to the year, they were not one of the favorites to win the title and you look at the star power that we’re left with here and Luka Doncic is just basically out in his way in terms of the playoffs that we’re going to be left with. I’m not sure who the highest MVP vote-getter honestly of this group is. I guess maybe it’s Curry, probably Tatum. But again, you know, there’s no Kevin Durant here. There’s no LeBron James here. The Phoenix Suns, none of those guys are still here. Giannis is out.
Alex Christiansen:
So, I think what you’re watching is a little more level playing field and you look at these games as well and the matchups. I mean, these Boston/Miami series… Those teams match up so well against each other. Both of those teams and coaches are so set on playing such good defense that I was kind of expecting some clunkers here eventually. I was a little surprised at how nice those games have been. I mean, last night is beyond a clunker in a physical, if you will, classic Eastern Conference Finals game.
Alex Christiansen:
But, I think it is… As you start to look at this, the Western Conference is just… Everyone keeps getting hurt. Everyone falls apart and the Warriors kind of stand alone. In the Eastern Conference, I mean, this is just two really contentious teams. I’m curious to see who comes out and if Miami was just playing possum or not.
Kate Constable:
What’s your prediction to come out of the East with this series tied two-two going back to Miami?
Alex Christiansen:
I knew you were going to ask me that and I still don’t want to answer it. Miami has two home games. Give me Miami. I mean, Spoelstra’s done a great job and I don’t think what we saw last night is representative of what we’re going to see in the next couple games for Miami. And, we’ll see how Boston does. I was impressed with Robert Williams. I think they are probably the more talented team. But, give me Spoelstra.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. Yeah. Best of three series going forward and Miami has home court advantage. Chris, I have a feeling you’re going to say Boston’s coming out of the East.
Chris Farley:
No. I mean, I would want Miami to come out. When Miami’s at their best, I love that team. I think they’re so much fun to watch. Are the Celtics probably the more talented team? Yes, but again, you got the veteran experience. You got a better coach, I think, on the Heat. So, it’s… I don’t even want to call it right now because I think it could go either way. I’ll put it this way. If the Celtics find a way to win game five, I do think this series is over. I think Boston’s going to win. But, I expect Miami to win the next game and then again it still feels like it’s up in the air because I would expect Boston to win game six. So, I’m… I guess I’m just not going to make a call on this one. If I had to, Celtics, I guess.
Alex Christiansen:
Yeah.
Chris Farley:
I don’t want to make a call, though.
Alex Christiansen:
Yeah.
Chris Farley:
You know?
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:07:28]Chris Farley:
Because, that’s how close it is.
Kate Constable:
Okay. Well, Chris is taking the Celtics. You have to make a call, so we’ll give you the Celtics. Alex is taking the Heat. I know Josh would be taking the Celtics and I promised Josh that I would gloat a little bit today over his Celtics because he’s not here on the show with us. But, hey, fantastic showing by the Celtics. They really stepped up after their performance in game three. So, I’m going to take the Celtics as well. I think they might be the ones to come out of this.
Kate Constable:
Let’s turn our attention to the West, though. We’ll start with our overall record, taking a look at that before we dive into the Warriors/Mavs game. Not much news today. I mean, I guess both of you took a little bit of a hit yesterday. I was the only one with a winner. Patting myself on the back there. But, today’s a new day and we will move forward.
Kate Constable:
Warriors and Mavs tonight in Dallas. Mavs are laying a point. This is, I mean, basically a pick em here tonight. Total is 215 and a half. There have been 146 prior three-oh series leads, which is what the Warriors have tonight, and no team has ever come back to win the next four games and advance. So, I mean, the series isn’t over until it’s over but it’s looking like the Warriors might be the ones to come out of this with a three-oh lead over the Mavs going into game four tonight.
Kate Constable:
Chris, can Dallas extend this series?
Chris Farley:
I think they definitely can. You know, I just don’t think this series is over, but this is a classic set-up spot again for the Warriors to kind of not really show up. Right? Like the Heat last night. I think Mark Holmes… I was trying to look for him in the chat, but one of our viewers said this yesterday, is that Golden State just doesn’t like to win series on the road and that’s true. We saw this same situation before. Game four at Denver, they were outscored 63 to 52 at the half, allowed 56% from the field, 48% from three. Jokic had 37 points. So, the same thing, game five in Memphis. Outscored 77 to 50 in the first half, 48% from the field. Jackson and Bane had great games.
Chris Farley:
So, the Warriors just… They don’t show their best selves in these situations. It was interesting to listen to Draymond Green’s podcast after the last game and how he talked about it. He was like, “If we can… If we can weather this storm in the beginning, then I think we could be okay, but we’ll see what happens.” So, he’s already taking like a defensive posture. Right? And, I think… I think Golden State when they’re on that defensive posture and they’re not being as aggressive and confident or attacking early… You know, I think that’s what we saw in game two. Right? The Mavericks went way up in the first half of that game.
Chris Farley:
So, I do think that there is a much better shot or a higher probability that that’s what we’ll see at least in the first half of today’s game. Obviously, we know after that last game, game three, the shooting for the Mavericks was just atrocious. I don’t think they hit a three until five or six minutes into the first quarter. So, you have to expect some kind of positive aggression from this Dallas Mavericks offense. I expect Brunson and Luka in particular to attack. Brunson is really important for that, right? And, it almost solely depends on if they’re going to attack and go into the paint first and throw the offense off. Then, they can open up some more shots.
Chris Farley:
But again, like we saw in game three, they were getting open shots in the first half. They just weren’t making those shots. So, I have to expect from a pro basketball team with a good starting unit, still a lot of weaknesses to the Dallas Mavericks, but hopefully they come out as aggressive as they possibly can. That’s what I’m counting on. I have the Mavs in the first quarter and first half and frankly, I’m surprised that the lines are where they are because the Mavericks are still favored full game. So, I would think in the early parts of the game, from what we saw, that’s… Those are the parts of the games that they’ll win. Would I be surprised if the Warriors again in the third quarter won that again and won overall the game? I would not be surprised at that.
Chris Farley:
So, you know, I think we just have to expect some improvement from Dallas here. There’s a lot of things to still like about the Warriors tonight. I mean, the way that they’ve adjusted in these games has been unbelievable. They can step up whenever they want. But, if there’s any game where they can just kind of chill at first, invite the series back to Golden State to end it, perhaps this is it. [inaudible 00:11:49]. Apparently, that’s what they like to do.
Kate Constable:
The Warriors have gone up three-oh in series 10 different times in franchise history and they’re only six and four straight up in those games. So, very well could be a Mavericks showing tonight. I’m going to play the over in this one based on how the Mavericks shot the ball in game three. Just under 29% from three in that game. Bertans, Kleber, Bullock, they went oh for 14 from three. Majority of those were uncontested shots, so it’s not like the Warriors’ perimeter defense was all that suffocating. They just weren’t able to knock things down.
Kate Constable:
And, as much as I expect the Mavs offense to regress back to the mean tonight, I don’t exactly see their defense, especially on the interior, being able to be much better than they’ve been throughout these three games. I mean, the Warriors have been getting to the basket at ease, cuts to the basket. They had 62 points in the paint in game two, 46 in game three. Dwight Powell has been pretty much absent down low in terms of the defense of them. So, I see the Mavs offense bringing much more to the table tonight but I don’t really see the Warriors offense doing much less than they’ve been doing and that’s been putting up points.
Kate Constable:
So, I’m going to take the over 215 and a half. Alex, what’s your play in this game?
Alex Christiansen:
I like all the things you guys are saying. You look at this Warriors team and I think Draymond’s even talking about what’s happened a few times. You look at that Memphis series especially. During that closeout game, no reason for them not to beat Memphis without Morant and Memphis comes out, puts up 40 points and Kerr just benched everybody and was like, “You know what?.” And, the logic makes sense. Right? They got to fly home anyway.
Kate Constable:
Right.
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:13:24] I guess just wait and play there and take care of business. It would be awful if you had to leave and then go to Dallas and play another game. They got to go back to Golden State. But, does really feel like at some point the shots are going to fall for the Dallas Mavericks and the numbers in the last game, especially the pace… I mean, the first two games, 96, 98. The pace for the last game under 89, so Dallas takes it, turns it into a grind, still somehow gets up 45 three pointers and you tack three more on, gets them to about 32, 33%. Still below their average. I’m comfortably at 109 points or over the 108 that I’m getting for the team total tonight.Alex Christiansen:
Now, it’s not exactly that simple, but it has been a really up and down series for Dallas. I think that there is a lot of subjective kind of elements to look at the Warriors. I think that, you know, not quite like what we saw last night but maybe we don’t get a full effort from Golden State, knowing that they can go home and close this out. At the same time, Dallas just offensively has missed really their kind of expected points, if you will, these first three games. They have… Not the first three. The first game was a mess. But, the last two should have been put up much bigger numbers than even what they did in the second game. So, I’m just going to keep leaning on the fact that at some point these shots are going to fall, especially at home.
Kate Constable:
And, any time the Mavericks have played poorly offensively, they’ve come off the next game and shot the ball much better. So, poor shooting in game three. Hope for a better result in game four. Chris, what do you expect from Luka tonight, knowing that this is a win or season’s over type of game?
Chris Farley:
Yeah. Luka still finds ways to score no matter what. Right? And, I think his point prop’s around 34, 34 and a half. That’s awfully high, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he eclipses that still. I think… I think they need to spread the ball around more. I mean, that’s probably one of the more obvious things for the Dallas Mavericks on offense. I mean, they just don’t have an offense sometimes. It relies too much on Luka. You know, they get to that isolation basketball. It’s just Jalen Brunson, it’s Luka. They’re infiltrating the paint when they can. They’re popping out. And, that’s why Dallas has to make shots.
Chris Farley:
There’s just some glaring issues with this team, so it really is that simple. It’s about that. They really don’t… You know, you spoke to Dwight Powell, Kate. Yeah. He has not been present in this series and he’s been very good on defense in some other games leading up to the playoffs and even in the playoffs a little bit, but not really a factor. When you got Kevon Looney playing like the best basketball of his life for the Warriors in these recent games… I mean, 12… 12 rebounds in the last one, a few blocks.
Chris Farley:
Hopefully the Mavericks are starting to emphasize offensive rebounding because the fact that the Warriors with even small ball lineups are cleaning up on the offensive glass is just crazy. So, I mean, that’s a big area of concern and we’ve seen it time and time again now. So, if they don’t make the adjustments in this game, then something insular is going on with the Dallas Mavericks that we don’t really know about because the issues are pretty glaring at this point.
Kate Constable:
Alex, Jason Kidd said after game three… It kind of almost sounded like they were just taking the moral victory that they made it to the conference finals. It’s a big step for their organization. Lot of positive stuff to build on going forward. What do you make of that take? I mean, moral victories aren’t a thing in the NBA. Or, are they?
Alex Christiansen:
There is a progression. You look at this league. Historically, there are patterns that over time… Yes, it’s different groups of players, but there’s something to be said about the progression of a young team doing kind of the first step of fighting through and making the playoffs, then winning a playoff series or two, then making it to the conference finals and then becoming sort of a title contender. And, you look back. Just about every team that’s been great has done it. You saw Milwaukee finally complete kind of that journey last year and I think for a lot of people, this year, again, Phoenix was supposed to be that team to sort of complete that journey. And, it’ll be interesting to see who wins.
Alex Christiansen:
But, I understand it. You want to try to be optimistic and stuff. But, I mean, I would hope that the Dallas Mavericks maybe hang the scores of these games in the locker room for the entire rest of the off-season because what we saw in this team… There’s a ton of potential. There’s a lot of speed in this team, more shooting than we thought. The defensive capabilities are a little bit better. But, I don’t know if that team really was ready for these moments. So, hopefully that’s just Jason Kidd being nice in public and he’s maybe a little tougher behind closed doors.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. It’ll be interesting to see what this team looks like next year because they’re going to have to pay Jalen Brunson and who knows if they’ll be able to do that. But, for tonight, just looking to get the win, extend the series, keep their season alive. Chris is going to play the Mavs in the first quarter and first half. I am going to take the full game over and Alex is taking the Mavs team total over tonight.
Kate Constable:
Questions here. We’ll start with the obvious. Any player props? Chris, you touched on Luka a little bit. Alex, what do you got?
Alex Christiansen:
Yeah, it’s… I mean, I said Lowry assists over last night and he had a lot of nice passes. Nobody made any baskets. But, I’m going to go back to Luka here. I don’t… You know, points over, assists over. I saw in the chat points, rebounds and assists. Go for it. Just Luka overs. He should have another great night. He had a bunch of rebounds and points the last game, not of the assists, so maybe those will pile in tonight. I just… I like his assists specifically.
Chris Farley:
I like Jalen Brunson a lot too. He scored 20 points in that last game. I had him over 20 and a half, of course. But, I think this is the game where he probably does it. I mean, Luka still scored 40 in that game. Jalen Brunson’s more important for the Mavericks than I think still a lot of people realize and he has to attack early and often. So, easily could have eclipsed it last time. I think this is a big Brunson game in this one. If the Mavericks offense is going to be on the attack a lot of times, the stimulant for that attack is Brunson.
Kate Constable:
Here’s a question that isn’t exactly related to this game at hand, but Frank wants to know what we think about the Lakers coaching search so far. They have it narrowed down to a couple candidates, but, oof. I mean, Terry Stotts? Former Blazers coach. Bucks assistant Darvin Ham. Kenny Atkinson, Golden State Warriors assistant. Kevin Garnett came out yesterday and said he doesn’t like any of those prospects for the Lakers. I mean, what do they do going forward?
Alex Christiansen:
I was disappointed but for the exact opposite reason that Kevin Garnett was. Those are three competent coaches. Those are guys that are smart. They know how to run teams. I mean, Terry Stotts got more out of the Portland Trail Blazers than anybody has for decades. Kenny Atkinson was awesome with the Nets before they canned him to bring in Steve Nash for whatever reason. And, with all due respect to Mr. Ham, I don’t really know who that is, but he comes from a really nice situation. He seems to be, by all accounts, a really sharp assistant coach. Like, I thought Mark Jackson would be on this list. I thought Glenn Rivers would be on this list. But, you know, that’s a whole different thing altogether.
Alex Christiansen:
I mean, that’s what I was looking for. Like, let’s get Mike Brown in here. Like, let’s go. Come on. There was… There was some real potential here for some atrocity. Instead, it’s three perfectly reasonable candidates.
Kate Constable:
Chris, any thoughts?
Chris Farley:
Not really. Just that the Lakers need a father figure. You know? They… They need somebody who stepped in like Ime Udoka did. Like, let’s organisize… Let’s… Organisize. My goodness. Let’s organize this mess of what’s going on with the L.A. Lakers. Somebody that all the players can look up to other than LeBron. You know? LeBron at a certain point… He’s always going to be the leader of the team probably and a… But, the Lakers are kind of a mess. Right? So, they need somebody who they can actually respect and I’m not saying they didn’t with Vogel, but somebody who has a presence, you know? And, actually has a lot of respect around the league. I don’t think they should go with your fly by night hot, hot coach off the press. You know?
Kate Constable:
Well, I think it’s going to come down to whoever LeBron wants as the head coach.
Chris Farley:
Probably.
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:21:25] Which…Alex Christiansen:
Because that always works out.
Kate Constable:
Yeah. Clearly didn’t work out for them last time. But, we’ll keep an eye on that Lakers situation and maybe have an update for you. I suppose everyone would have an update based on how that search is going in the next couple weeks.
Kate Constable:
Last question here. Any WNBA picks tonight?
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:21:44]Kate Constable:
I’ve just started to kind of take a look at the WNBA. Tonight, I would go with the Chicago Sky team total over 87 and a half. They’re playing the Indiana Fever, who give up a ton of points. Bottom half of the league. And, the Chicago Sky, they can score points. One of the best records in the league. As you can see, I’m still kind of learning the whole WNBA and all the teams and players and aspects, but that would be my play. Alex, you’ve been watching any WNBA?
Alex Christiansen:
Shame on me. I mean to go in and start handicapping this stuff and every year, it’s just in a really annoying time of the year. You got the NBA playoffs going on. Tennis is in full bloom. I’m trying to wrap up NFL stuff and get all that stuff started and then the WNBA just sort of stumbles in. So, unfortunately, for the third year in a row, I’ve not gotten myself together enough to model some of these games. I’m glad that you have. It does seem to be like a fun market to handicap and I will say the Fever is a terrible team name. Get a new team name, Indiana.
Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:22:49] Just sounds like their whole team has a cold or something.Alex Christiansen:
It’s a… Are they saying it for like the song Fever or something? Like, I don’t… I don’t understand how that’s good. Like…
Kate Constable:
Like [inaudible 00:22:58]. They’ve got a fever.
Alex Christiansen:
Is that what it is? Is it the cowbell joke?
Kate Constable:
I don’t know the cowbell joke, but you want to explain?
Chris Farley:
Oh boy. I don’t know if we have time for that, Alex.
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:23:09] You don’t know who Bruce Dickinson is?Chris Farley:
The Bruce Dickinson?
Kate Constable:
I [inaudible 00:23:13].
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:23:13] He puts his pants on one leg at a time but when he does [inaudible 00:23:17].Chris Farley:
I’ll do the whole… I’ll do the whole skit right now. Just don’t make me do it. [inaudible 00:23:21] do it.
Alex Christiansen:
It’s okay. It’s… It’s kind… It’s just fun to me and no one wants to see us do this. But, I’ll send you a link to the SNL skit that apparently the only person on earth that hasn’t seen it.
Kate Constable:
My pop culture skills are not very good. I will admit that. There is a lot that I haven’t seen and don’t know when it comes to pop culture, although maybe this isn’t even a pop culture-y thing. I just… Yeah.
Chris Farley:
Oh, no. It is.
Kate Constable:
All right. It is?
Chris Farley:
Yeah.
Kate Constable:
Okay.
Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:23:45]Kate Constable:
[inaudible 00:23:45] don’t feel so bad. Okay. I would love to see it. Maybe we can re-enact the skits next time we’re all on. I believe that’s Friday. Okay.Alex Christiansen:
[inaudible 00:23:53]Kate Constable:
Turning it all over to our best bets for today. Only one game, Mavs and Warriors game four. Chris is taking the Mavs in the first half, first quarter. Taking the full game over. And, Alex is taking the Mavs team total over. Dallas looking to extend the series and not get swept in the Western Conference Finals tonight.
Kate Constable:
That is all we have, gentlemen. As always, head over to Twitter. Follow us at BetUS TV. Follow Alex at at underscore noops and Chris at Farley Bets. I’m at Kate Constable. I’ll be tweeting out some more WNBA picks for you this week, so you can head over there, check that out. We will see you all back here tomorrow, same time, 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Have a good night. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook!
