2023 NCAA Basketball Championship Final Four Game Picks | College Basketball Odds[Tuesday, Mar 31st]

TJ Rives:

Yeah. It is going to be a lot of fun. Three first time teams, as Kyle references. San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, Miami, never been here. UConn’s been here and won the national title over and over again. Corby Craig, good to be back with you. How pumped are you on the day before the Final Four?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I’ve heard media talking about this is the least exciting Final Four in quite some time. I think the exact opposite. I think that it has a chance to go down in the history books, so I’m excited to watch.

TJ Rives:

Yeah. There’s no doubt that we get either San Diego State or Florida Atlantic in the championship game, which is crazy. That’s the first time a mid-major team is guaranteed to be in the title game since Butler was in the title game. When? When guys? 2011. Where? Houston, Texas. And who was the opponent for the mid-major team Butler? UConn. So if you believe in the Twilight Zone and the do do, do do, do do, do do. All right. Here we go. We’re back in the Lone Star State. We’re back in Houston. UConn is back. We’re back with a mid-major and we’re ready to talk all about it.

Thank you for finding us. Handicapping coming up on the semi-final games here in just a few moments, and some question and answer time for some different plays. The handicappers will be making some official plays as well here on the show. All right. So Corby, I got to get it out of the way. You’re not in black, you were in, what, [inaudible 00:02:03] yesterday. But North Texas took out your guys, they took out UAB last night to win the NIT championship in Las Vegas. The Mean Green. You still posted on the show. The sun did come up this morning. Give me a quick thought though. It’s come to an end though for UAB. And for North Texas, it’s a victory in the NIT tournament.

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I’ve been working on blowing my whistle every time my clock hits zero, because usually that’s what you do. But, it’s okay. We’ll give them two shot clock violations that ended up being five points in the last two minutes of the game. But, that’s okay. They play… Listen, North Texas played a really good basketball game. I’m surprised we were even in it. First half was as North Texas as you can be. I saw somebody say people were sleeping on Tyler Perry. I mean, Tyler Perry’s the national player of the year. Nobody was sleeping on Tyler Perry. It was a really good basketball game from start to finish. North Texas had the first punch and the last punch, and it was enough to get it done. So by all means, North Texas deserved it. I’m glad they stayed in Conference USA. I told, I think it was mid-major Matt before, that it was a scary matchup.

I mean, you’re playing a team for the fourth time in a year, seven times in 18 months. So really good matchup. I mean, they’ve played each other tight every game. It’s impossible to say that you knew this was going to happen, because every single line has been within two, every matchup that they’ve played for the last two years. It was going to be a good game no matter what. So shout out North Texas, I’m glad they got it done. Tyler Perry’s a fun story, a great basketball player. And UAB has a lot to rebuild, so we’ll see. They’re going to lose their whole starting five, so it should be interesting.

TJ Rives:

Kyle Hunter, a thought on the North Texas win and what it might foreshadow with Florida Atlantic, the Conference USA regular season champs and tournament champs now playing in the Final Four. And how about, they didn’t waste any time. Right after the game, basically it’s out that Grant McCasland’s officially the Texas Tech coach. Had they cut the nets down yet when he was already signing the contract for Texas Tech? Kyle, your thoughts real quick on the NIT. We put that to bet.

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I think McCasland’s a great hire. Yeah. He’s done a tremendous job, so I think that’s a very good hire. Not surprising. It did go super quick. But I think it also says a lot about him that they were still able to win the NIT, even though he was clearly going to go to Texas Tech. So pretty good job staying focused there at North Texas.

TJ Rives:

And you kept saying on the Thursday show, “I don’t know. I’m staying away from the total here”, and the total still hovered right around the under/over line for North Texas. It’s just tough. It’s tough to gauge them with how slow they play, how low scoring their games are. And that morphs into a little bit of what San Diego State is going to be in game number one, that we’re going to talk about. All right. So let’s take a look at the handicapping records. Only two more shots to go here on Friday and Monday on the BetUS College Basketball Show. You see that Corby and Kyle will both finish above .500 when it’s all said and done, unless they make 18 picks each today and on Monday.

So we’re in good shape there. And now we’re ready. Now we’re ready to talk about these two games. The two national semi-finals from Houston, NRG Stadium, the home of the Houston Texans is the home of the Final Four this weekend. And let’s get into it guys. Game number one is Florida Atlantic and San Diego State. Just after 5:00 local time, San Diego State maintains a two and a half point favorite role, the total at 132 in this one. Corby Craig, begin our Friday discussion with thoughts and an official play on Aztecs and Owls winner to the national title game Monday night please.

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I bet San Diego State by two, two and a half, and I absolutely hate it. Listen, if there’s anybody rooting for Conference USA more, I’m up there. FAU I hope gets it done. I’ve been against them it seems like this whole time, but it’s a fun ride. I took Memphis when they played. I just have been against. But the main thing for me is, first off this number got hit up from one and a half, to three, back down to two, two and a half by some groups yesterday. But the main thing for me is, before this tournament started, what would you have made this number? Yes. Florida Atlantic looked really good in the tournament, shouted them, props to them. But before all of this happened, what is that number? And I made it five and a half.

So it’s a three points discrepancy, just due to the fact that they’ve had a really good tournament. Where is it if there’s been a [inaudible 00:06:12], you’re getting a much more non tournament feel in these games. This is a big stage that they had to rest. So I think two and a half is a solid number. Also, San Diego State… I mean, yes, FAU has the ability to score. And everybody talked about, “How does San Diego State stop Alabama’s offense or keep up with the scoring?” It’s the biggest issue that they have. But we just saw them do it versus Alabama. So they’re not running into a completely different type of scheme, they literally saw Alabama last matchup.

And yes, FAU saw Tennessee, which is very similar to San Diego State, but they were struggling in that Tennessee game. Until the very end of the game, Tennessee didn’t score. And so, I don’t know, I think it’s too much of a bias towards how FAU has played in the last two weeks probably. And this two and a half would’ve been five if we saw it in February. So I’ll take my shot at two and a half. And if I’m wrong, by all means, FAU to the championship, that would be a fun championship to watch.

TJ Rives:

All right. So he gave you some thoughts on San Diego State. Kyle Hunter, let’s talk about Florida Atlantic that’s been undaunted ever since that Memphis upset. Now it is interesting, in the second round game with Fairleigh Dickinson, they were 14 and a half point favorites, as we kept joking about 10 days ago or so. Who would’ve ever thought that Florida Atlantic, who’s never won an NCAA tournament game before this year, would be favored by 15 in a second round game. They were, they did not cover by the way. However, they won outright as the underdog with both Tennessee and Kansas State. Here they are, the Owls an underdog again. A 35 win Florida Atlantic team. Thoughts and an official play from you, Kyle, on this semi-final game FAU and San Diego State.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I’m not going to have 18 plays, but I do have a couple plays on this one, TJ. This is a game that I’m pretty excited for. I think… Let’s start with this. So I want to say that NRG Stadium is the host of this game. And I looked at the seven games that have been played there thus far. There’s a lot of talk about whether the stadium matters to a total or not. They’re four and three to the under. In the seven games, the under is cashed by an average of 6.29 points in that seven game sample size. Two of the overs were by two points or fewer. None of the unders have been under by less than five points. So the unders have definitely cashed by more. It’s a small sample, but it’s still interesting. We remember Villanova absolutely torched the nets here in Houston.

They had no issue shooting there against Oklahoma, when they won by 40 something points. But overall, the huge stadiums are a net negative for shooting. The odds makers are wise and shade the line in that direction usually. My thing about this is, Florida Atlantic takes so many shots from three normally. San Diego State is so good at defending the three. 27% is what they’ve given up for the season, in the tournament it’s been 17%. You could argue 17% is hard to keep up, certainly. I do think Florida Atlantic is liable to take less threes than they normally take, because they’re getting forced out of that. San Diego State’s so good at contesting those threes. It’s interesting, because Florida Atlantic’s been behind in the second half in every game in the NCAA tournament, has made their second half run. They’re a clutch team. Their depth is really tough to match up with. 15th highest in the nation in bench minutes.

So a very deep team. Now, San Diego State’s 30th in bench minutes, so they certainly play a lot of subs too. Matt Bradley was easily their leading score in the regular season. He’s been terrible in the NCAA tournament. The last couple of games, 2/9, 1/8. He only played 19 and 20 minutes in the last couple of games. So I don’t hate Matt Bradley unders here, because I think he might not get as many minutes in this game either, playing Butler and Trammell more than normal in a game like this. But what pace does this game play at? That’s the key. San Diego State has been really good dramatically slowing down the pace in this tournament. They slowed Furman, who’s a very fast team, down to 63 possessions. They slowed Creighton down to 62 possessions. Ken Palm has this game projected at 66 possessions.

I think that’s too fast. Florida Atlantic played a 60 possession game against Memphis, not a slow team. They played a 59 possession game against Tennessee. There’s a lot of similarities between Tennessee and San Diego State, certainly. And I think relying on all those threes for Florida Atlantic is pretty tough, because this is going to be the best three point defense they’ve played the entire season. So I like the first half under here. I’m going to take the first half under, thinking it’ll take a while for people to get used to the shooting, backdrop, environment.

I still think the tempo will be slow as well. And I know mid-major Matt had this one as well, but I’m also going to take the prop. And Matt’s probably better at props than I am, but I really like his look on Alijah Martin, under two and a half three pointers made. I mean, he has been under that in eight of the last 11 games. And now, they’re playing the best three point defense in this massive stadium. I think that’s too high of a line. There is some juice on that, but I think it’s a good bet. So I’m going to take both the first half under and Elijah Martin under two and a half three pointers.

TJ Rives:

All right. Again, Matt was all over that as well. And I’ll just give you some context. I was at the previous Final Four at NRG Stadium in 2016, 7 years ago, eventually won by Villanova on the last second shot by Kris Jenkins. And you’re exactly right, Villanova was the opening game against Oklahoma and they just smashed them in the first half, making three point shot after three point shot. All right. We’ll bring the context back just to last year, at the Superdome, where Kansas blitzed Villanova, speaking of Villanova in the first half. And Agbaji and Jalen Wilson and others, they made like 12 three pointers. Now it wasn’t a huge first half, that’s your point on the first half under. But in terms of the shooting stuff, that has pretty well been dispelled. Now go back to Virginia winning the 2019 tournament in the Minnesota Viking stadium.

They didn’t score a ton, but they were making lots of three point shots and making them even in the first half of the Auburn semi-final game, that they played the eventual national champions. So there’s just a little context on this, for the plays back and forth. Just one more on this, on being able to handle the moment. We got two programs that have never been here before. Who handles the moment better? Especially maybe in the first half of this game. Although Corby Craig, you go back to the Sweet 16 game at Madison Square Garden, Florida Atlantic only scored 23 points in the first half, then they scored 39 points in the second half. They were better in the second half to be able to beat Tennessee in that one. So a thought on who handles the moment better and how that maybe factors into a first half under, et cetera. Corby, a thought real quick?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I mean, neither of these teams have really been here. But at the same time, it’s the Final Four at this point. They’ve been in some big situations, they’ve had enough time to prepare. Maybe a slow start, new environment, new schemes to be adjusted to, but I don’t think the moment’s too big for either of these teams. It’s very veteran driven, both sides of the ball. So I’m not too worried about the presence of mind. If anything, it just helps Kyle’s first half under more.

TJ Rives:

And as much as you can try to say this, Kyle Hunter… One more point before we lock in the picks here and move on to game number two. As much as you can try to prepare them… And the teams are going to be practicing here in Houston, as we do the show live on Friday. They’re going to be practicing in the setting, there’re going to be about 10,000 to 15,000 open to the public fans that are going to be hanging out. They’re trying to get used to the setting. There will be a moment for these two teams when they come out on the floor, and they lower the lights, and they introduce everybody, and there’s 70,000 people roaring, where they’re going to stand around and go, “Oh my God. We’re here.” Now, who handles it better? We’re going to find out who handles it better coming up on Saturday. But Kyle, one final thought on the enormity of the moment and how that factors in maybe to the first half under also that you’re tallying.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. The one final point I’d love to make here is Florida Atlantic. Look at where they play their home games. Baldwin Arena, 2,500 people seated there, it’s 330th as far as largest places. Viejas Arena is pretty big, it seats about 12,500 people. I think that helps San Diego State. Some of these teams that play in these tiny cracker box gyms have been… They have a hard time. You get the Missouri Valley Conference, those unders have been really good in that conference tournament, because they’re not used to playing in that big of an arena. I think that type of thing could play into this too. I think Florida Atlantic’s shooting numbers could be quite a bit lower than what we’re used to seeing.

TJ Rives:

All right. Good enough. Let’s lock the guys in. As Corby mentioned at the beginning of the discussion, he likes the side with San Diego State. He’s going Aztecs. He’s laying the two and a half for them to be in the national title game and make history. It’s history either way, no matter who wins. But Corby likes San Diego State. Kyle is going first half under 60 points, so he does not want to see early scoring especially. And you probably won’t get it from San Diego State. You might get it from Johnell Davis and Florida Atlantic, but you probably won’t get a lot of scoring from San Diego State the first half, they’ve been much better than the second half. He also likes Alijah Martin of FAU to be held under three 3 pointers. So Elijah could make one early, Kyle, you’re fine with that. But let’s keep him away from two until at least the second half.

And San Diego State, again, did a masterful job of guarding Alabama down the stretch, and guarding Creighton down the stretch and squelching them both off. So he takes an under prop as well on FAU’s Alijah Martin to be under three 3 pointers made, under two and a half, for the national semi-final game. Okay. So that’s game number one. We will get to some questions and answers coming up. Thank you for finding us live on this Friday, as we get ready for the Final Four in Houston. Game number two is the Miami Hurricanes and the UConn Huskies. Again, when the Final Four was last in Houston, it was won by UConn in 20… Well actually, the last time UConn was in it, they won it.

It was last in Houston in 2016, as we keep saying that Villanova won it. But the last time UConn was in it, in Houston, they won it. Now they’re back in Houston to play Miami, who’s never been in the Final Four before. You see the BetUS line remains at five and a half here, and the total at 149. So let’s begin the discussion. Corby Craig, does it surprise you? We’ve been talking all week, as of Friday, may move some tonight or tomorrow. Does it surprise you the line is still five and a half, that it hasn’t maybe gone up a little bit with some money on UConn at this stage? What is your thought on that to start us off?

Corby Craig:

No. I saw some people grab some fives, so it fell down for a second and got brought right back up. Five and a half makes a ton of sense. Nothing that I would play by any means. I think a four and a half would make sense for UConn. The thing is… And I say it towards UConn, but I have no play on this. People forget, Miami was struggling versus a Texas team that didn’t have Dylan Disu. So I don’t know. I would love to see Miami win, but I’m not sure how they stop Sanogo down low. I think that the guard play of Miami is great, it probably can stop Jordan Hawkins and stop most of this UConn threat. But Sanogo almost had a triple double last game.

They’ve shown that they don’t have to have guards to facilitate offense. And does Miami have the ability to stay in front of him? I just don’t think so. Again, if Miami wins, it would be great to watch. Mark says Miami [inaudible 00:17:26]. I probably agree with that. Miami at a six, UConn at a four. So a five and a half just sits in a weird shaded area in between that nobody really wants to hop on. And that’s the point of a market at the end of the season. It’s the Final Four, these numbers are nearly perfect. So the lack of movement doesn’t surprise me much at all.

TJ Rives:

Kyle Hunter, thoughts not only on the line staying where it is, but also the total. Is that total about where it should be? Thoughts, Kyle?

Kyle Hunter:

This is a tricky handicap in general, because the total… You see UConn and Miami, 149. I have a hard time thinking anything other than over. But it is in the massive stadium, that I think is a bit of a negative for shooting. It’s just that wherever these two teams were going to play, I couldn’t bet an under. I mean, how could you bet an under in a game like this? Miami’s backcourt is very good offensively and they run some really good stuff on offense, but their defense is really bad. I’ve heard a lot of people say, “Well, Miami’s defense shows up when they have to. They get these stops at the end of the game when they have to.” I don’t know. I think Texas was just pretty bad at the end of that game, I don’t know that it was Miami’s defense looked really good or anything. And they’re 207th in effective field goal percentage defense.

I don’t think we can trust Miami to come up with a big stop against a good offense. UConn is a good offense, they have a lot of different guys that can score. The other thing that tends to make me think the over could be a good play here, is as long as the refs are blowing the whistle, UConn fouls a lot. They’re in the bottom 50 in fouls committed. So this Miami team shoots 78% from the free throw line. A lot of guys on their team are very good from the free throw line. And I think Miami could be able to hang around in the game because of that, as long as they’re being aggressive and getting to the line. Miami was fourth in the nation away from home ranking, so they’ve played well when they’re not at home. I think that’s pretty impressive.

And also, 85, 89 and 88 points in their last three games. Houston and Texas were two of those teams. Two really good defenses. I think Miami probably scores here. Question is, how many do they give up? And I think that’ll be quite a few. I think UConn team total over might be my favorite play here, if I had to bet something. The side is tricky to me, because if you took this game a couple of weeks ago, UConn wouldn’t be favored by this much, because UConn just absolutely blew out Gonzaga. It feels like if you’re buying UConn now, you’re buying the stock at the highest it’s been the entire season.

I like to buy low and sell high. I don’t think UConn’s a great value in this. And obviously, like we talked about yesterday TJ, Larrañaga has been… He’s been Mr. March himself, and he’s been as an underdog 26 and 5, 26 and 6 in the last 31, 32. A bunch of those are outright wins too. I think in a game like this, UConn is the side I’d rather have, but five and a half is too many for me to lay. And I think over is the total that I would lean towards.

TJ Rives:

I’ve heard a couple of handicappers bring this point up too. Especially if UConn gets off to a good start in the first segment, and makes a couple of threes let’s say, and gets up eight to two, something like that. Then, a live bet opportunity to get Miami maybe even at eight or at 10 at that point would be the play potentially. Corby, I see you nodding along, particularly because the Hurricanes were so good in the second half against Texas. Down 13 in the second half, they came roaring back and won the game without even making a three point shot in the second half. So maybe the live bet is the play. Any more thoughts Corby, if not on the side or the total, but maybe a player prop that you’re looking at? I know you’ve been big on Isaiah Wong. He’s been hot and cold. He was really good shooting the threes against Houston, he couldn’t make a three against Texas. Still hit a couple of shots in the second half in the comeback. Any thoughts on maybe a prop as well? Go ahead.

Corby Craig:

You just tossed me the absolute softball TJ. I raised my hand, because that is exactly what I wanted to talk about. Just scrolling through while you were chatting, I was looking at three point props. Because the thing is, if you watched that Gonzaga game, I wouldn’t say that UConn’s defense was great in particular, more they knew the idea that Gonzaga guards could not hit three pointers. And they gave up a lot of open threes, which Gonzaga just could not hit. So if you like the over, I would assume that Miami’s going to have to hit threes.

You can get Nijel Pack over two and a half threes at +160. Does he hit 3 threes? I don’t know. +160 is a good price. You can get Isaiah Wong. Let’s see… On BetUS, over one and a half threes at +165. I think there’s a lot of cases that he scores two threes. I don’t think that’s a far ask by any means. And so, I just don’t think that the UConn guard play, defensively at least, is going to find the open man at all times. And so, they’re going to get good looks. If they want to win this game, Isaiah Wong is going to have to hit two threes in my opinion. And we’ll see. 165 I think is pretty good value, to assume that he’s going to at least get 4, 5, 6 looks.

TJ Rives:

Again, Kyle Hunter, on the same prop here that Wong and Pack combined I believe for nine three pointers made against Houston. They were something like 9/13 individually tandem, together. But then, against Texas, neither one of them could make one and they still made the comeback. Any thought on a three point shooting prop for Miami? Or just stay away, because you don’t know what you’re getting out of the Hurricanes from one game to the next, as what we saw in Kansas City?

Kyle Hunter:

I would definitely lean towards taking overs there. I think Corby makes a good point, in that if you just look at the box score afterwards, you assume that UConn just played amazing defense on Gonzaga. But they missed a ton of open shots and really weren’t even close on a lot of those wide open shots. Gonzaga had some major issues that day. I don’t think Miami’s going to brick shots to the point that they did in that one. It might look… Let’s be honest, Timme’s tremendous, but Gonzaga guards were their downfall and Miami has tremendous guard play. I don’t think they’re going to miss that many threes. So I would lean overs in general in this game.

TJ Rives:

Again, I’m just looking back for Miami, that in the Texas game, they were only 2/8. They only tried eight three pointers in the game. Pack was 1/4, Wong was 0/3. You compare that to the Houston game, those two, Nigel Pack and Isaiah Wong, were 8/12 in the Houston game, right at 75%. So what will that mean? What will that mean for Miami’s success? One more on the coaching matchup, from a handicapping standpoint. This is advantage Larrañaga and Miami having been here before, having been in the big moment before. Is it not? I know Danny Hurley has shut a lot of people up the last couple of weeks, especially making it to the Final Four and beating Gonzaga to do it. But how big is the coaching edge? Just real quick, while we handicap this. Kyle Hunter, quick thought?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I mean, I see the chat going back and forth about that too, Larrañaga versus Hurley. Larrañaga has to have the edge. He’s been so good. There’s not many coaches that you wouldn’t give him the edge over in a spot like this. And that’s not really saying that Hurley is a bad coach, it’s just Larrañaga has been that good. I think that Larrañaga will have his team ready to play. The problem for them is they don’t match up all that well against a really good UConn team that’s very complete.

TJ Rives:

Corby Craig, thoughts on Jim Larrañaga having been there before versus Danny Hurley first time there. Obviously, Hurley’s brother Bobby won a couple of national titles as a player with Duke. This is the brother. Farthest they’ve been. UConn as a program has been there. But thoughts on the coaching edge?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. Larrañaga obviously has the leg up. But I think it’s been impressive what Hurley’s been able to do with a team that… I mean, halfway through the year, they peaked out early. And to be able to remain and retain focus, and get back into the spot that they’re at, shoutout to them, it takes a lot of coaching wit and intuition. But Larrañaga’s going to have the edge, as Kyle said, over basically everybody. But don’t sleep on Hurley, he’s a lot better of a coach than he’s getting respect for at this point.

TJ Rives:

I know. The chat is going back and forth about this. This is the point in time when we remind them that UConn hasn’t won anything with Danny Hurley yet. Let’s see. Let’s see what happens here. He can change that argument and that dynamic by winning on Saturday, and then obviously winning it all on Monday night. And they are clearly the favorite team. We will find out. So some good discussions, some good leans on Miami UConn. For the record, the host loves Miami in this spot as the dog. And I’m not so sure this won’t be six or six and a half on the BetUS line by Saturday, that a lot of money will come in on UConn here at the last minute. Love the Canes to keep it close, if not win the game. All right. Thank you for finding us here on a Friday.

We’re going to sit here for a few more minutes. First of all, you can help us out. Hit that like button as you see on the screen. If you enjoy this content on BetUS TV, hit the bell, make sure you’re subscribed. One more show coming Monday at 11:00 Eastern Time, 10:00 Texas Time, on Monday to preview the national title game, whomever is in it out of San Diego State, Florida Atlantic, UConn and Miami. So we look forward to being with you one more time here as all this unfolds. And let’s get some questions and answers going. We will sit here with you for a few more minutes. Again, hit subscribe. I see the subscribers have… It’s crossed the 5,000 threshold. Can we get, as I keep saying, to 5,200 subs by the time we’re done on Monday? We can do that with your help.

Hit subscribe right now, if you haven’t done so, and help us out here on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Boys, are you ready for some Q&A besides what we’ve already been talking about here on the program? Let’s see what some of the peeps are saying here about this one. I’m looking in the live chat. If anybody’s got questions, go ahead and hit us up with those. So people are asking about the Women’s Final Four, which we talked about yesterday. That is Friday night, here as we’re doing this show live in Dallas. About three and a half hours North of Houston, depending on how fast you drive and the traffic, et cetera. The Women’s Final Four was South Carolina against Iowa and LSU against Virginia Tech. Both South Carolina and LSU were the prohibited favorites. Again, Caitlin Clark is as exciting as any player left in either Final Four. 30 point shooter.

Will Dawn Staley’s South Carolina team, be able to put some of the clamps down on her to stop her or not in this game? We’ll find out for the Women’s Final Four. There’s a little quick Women’s Final Four take, at least from the host. And I know we talked a lot about that yesterday on the show. I’m looking to see if there are any other ones. Arthur is asking us, “Do you consider Miami a better moneyline play than taking the points?” He says, “It looks to me like if they cover, they win.” Strategy on a Miami moneyline play, Kyle Hunter?

Kyle Hunter:

I mean, I guess I understand the thought process. But five and a half points is a decent amount of points. I don’t think that it’s one of those things where it can’t fall between one and five points, because these games come down to the wire pretty often. You got a good coach in Larrañaga, but you have a better team in Uconn. I think if it were me, if I were betting Miami, I would just bet Miami plus five and a half and take part of it on the moneyline rather than take everything on the moneyline.

TJ Rives:

Corby Craig, a thought on that with Miami, to get the better value if they get the outright win on the moneyline, obviously?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. The moneyline’s adjusted towards how many points they think that they should cover by. So I mean, if you like them to win then take the moneyline. It’s not a hit or miss, it’s adjusted exactly towards that number. What are you getting, 180? That’s the implied odds of it coming down to a five point game as well. So I mean, I always lean towards spreads, I really don’t play too big of moneylines. But if you like it, then by all means, I think that it’s a better place. But I remember, I think yesterday, you talked about Miami in those games that they were dogs, one outright and an X amount of times.

So that’s always interesting. And Miami does have the team too, if they’re on. And as we talked about the three point shots, if this is a team that’s hitting all of their shots, then I mean by all means, I don’t know how you stop a team from scoring three when you score two. But I mean, there’s a lot of factors that go into it. I don’t love it in particular. But I would lean towards Miami with six, UConn four and I probably will live bet that idea. If I can get an eight, seven and a half or eight, for Miami, I’ll live bet it. And if I can get a three and a half, four and a half, I’ll take UConn.

TJ Rives:

Again, to that point. Miami, on the number that we quoted, is 26, 5 and 1, going back to February of 2021 for what it’s worth on the trend, as an underdog. 18 outright wins. Kyle, what did we come up with yesterday on the show? Seven of those are this year, three of those are the last three NCAA tournament games they played. They were underdogs with Indiana, and then with Houston, and then with Texas and they won all of the games. There is a trend. There’s a trend right now for Larrañaga’s team. And if you believe in him that much, maybe you do take the moneyline. GasStationSushi is watching us. Thank you. And says, “Do you think the total of 149 will go up or drop by tip time?” Kyle, a thought on if that total may go up a point or two before they start the UConn Miami game?

Kyle Hunter:

I think it’s probably going to stay about the same. I think that there’s going to be sharp betters who like to bet unders in these large venues, that’s going to keep it from going up too much. At the same time, I think the public will like the over. So maybe 149.5, but I don’t see any big move here.

TJ Rives:

We shall see on that number. And again, Miami over 80 points in each of the two games with two good defensive teams, Houston and Texas. Will it continue? Robert is also watching and says, “What about the officiating? I saw UAB shot 31 free throws to North Texas’ 11. If it gets to free throws, who’s the best in the Final Four?” Hurricanes have been outstanding shooting free throws. San Diego State’s been good for the most part as well. Thoughts on the best free throw shooting team, Kyle Hunter?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I think it’s Miami. Miami is 78.0%. I know UConn is good too. Yeah. 76% for UConn. So those are the two teams that are best at it. Florida Atlantic from the free throw line has been 71.9%. Nobody’s terrible from the line of the teams that are left, but Miami is the most consistent. Miami has a lot of different guys who can hit free throws.

TJ Rives:

Corby, did you have any thought? I know you’re back with us as well. Did you have any thoughts, if you can still hear us and see us, on foul shooting and how big of a factor that might be, particularly in the Miami game?

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I don’t have my… I look like a blur right now, so that’s always fun. Shout out-

TJ Rives:

We still hear you. We still hear you and we’re going to get done here in a second. Any thoughts on free throw shooting? Go ahead.

Corby Craig:

Yeah. I don’t have numbers in front of me, but just an assumption that Miami probably has the better free throw shooters, just based off pure… From who I know they have on their team. I would imagine Hawkins is probably the best shooter on the floor. So it all comes down to who do you get to ball in your hands. I saw somebody reference the UAB game. UAB shot 31 free throws yesterday, but that’s because Andre Davis… Or I don’t even know what his first name is, to be honest. But Davis is an absolute menace. He gets to the free throw line anytime he wants. The issue is, he can’t hit free throws. So it’s like, “Yeah. We shot 31, but Davis probably shot 10 of them.” And so, who do you get the ball to at the free throw line? I think Miami gets to the line with more quality shooters more often. So I would lean towards Miami for the free throws.

TJ Rives:

Good enough on that. Great discussion guys, for the weekend. We’ll see what happens here, coming up with San Diego State and Florida Atlantic. Best NCAAB prop bets, the guys both making plays officially on the first of the two semi-final games. Corby going with San Diego State and laying the two and a half. Kyle likes a first half under in that first game up on the floor in the big football stadium, the Houston Texans Stadium here in Houston. And he also likes Alijah Martin to be held under 3 threes for the game, under three 3 pointers made. Two and a half.

He’s going under there on that line. With that, I think we’re good boys. Are we ready to throw the ball up? To see a mid-major team qualify for the national title game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State? And then, will it be UConn or Miami? UConn the favorite or is Miami about to make… Is it going to be beach Armageddon, as I keep saying? Will it be the beach Armageddon Final Four, with Miami against Florida Atlantic? How wild that would be. But San Diego State’s on the beach too. We’ll see what happens. Boys, any final thoughts? Corby, we’re back. We’re seeing you moving pictures. We’re all good. Final thoughts before we’re gone on a Friday?

Corby Craig:

Nice. Yeah. Rooting for San Diego State. And if they don’t get there, then I become the biggest FAU fan. Let’s get the triple crown of Conference USA.

TJ Rives:

How wild would that be? Kyle Hunter, final thoughts on a Friday before the Final Four?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah. I mean, I won’t be here on Monday. So shout out to the chat and everybody who’s been viewing all throughout the course of the season. Thanks to Corby, TJ, Matts, both of you, everybody at BetUS. Great season, it’s been a lot of fun. Thanks for everybody tuning in all along the way.

TJ Rives:

Well said there, Kyle. Great stuff. Guys and gals, make sure you hit the like button, make sure you subscribe. Again, we’re back one more time. I’ll be here in Houston. Whatever happens, we’re back to preview it Monday for the national title game at 11:00 AM Eastern Time, 10:00 AM Texas Time, and enjoy all the action, and then be with us on Monday to recap it all. Thanks to Kevin and everybody with BetUS, and for Corby and for Kyle. I am merely TJ Rives. Thank you for watching. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. And we’ll see what happens in the Final Four and talk about it Monday on the Bet US College Basketball Show.