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College Basketball Picks, Predictions and Best College Basketball Odds [Dec.15]

Expert Analysis: Insights on the Best College Basketball Picks and Predictions

TJ Rives:

Well, hello there. Great to be back with you on the BetUS College Basketball Show for a Wednesday edition. I am merely the host, but I am smiling. We’re going to get to that here in a moment. These are our handy campers, Jeff Nadu, and Ian Cameron, back aboard for another edition of the program to go over some different games. But before we get to the Wednesday slate, I will begin with the alma mater, Go Tigers Go! I’m in a good mood, because Memphis righted the ship all in one night against number six, Alabama.

TJ Rives:

And Jeff Nadu, I’ve got to go to you, right? Welcome. And you were being like my therapist yesterday as we were talking on the show. You were saying to me, “Glass half full, TJ, glass half full. They’re at home. Alabama off an emotional win.” Nice call, even though it wasn’t an official play, you kept saying, “I like Memphis in this situation.” So, nice stuff there last night. I’m in an especially good mood on a Wednesday because of it, Jeff Nadu.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I would be. I mean if you’re a Memphis fan, I mean that’s the kind of spot where you need to come and you need to play. You need to kind of grab everything you have, and that’s a huge win. And look, I’m not going to be arrogant or say, “I told you so,” but like exactly what I said would happen, happened. Alabama didn’t make threes. Memphis was terrific from the line, 20 for 25, 80%, exactly what you need to be.

Jeff Nadu:

And they just put their head down and got into the lane and really punished a pretty bad defense, quite frankly. I mean Alabama couldn’t get stops and string stops together. It was impressive. It was a great win for Memphis. Now you need to use this and build off of it. You’ve gotten some signature wins. The season’s not lost. Look, the good thing about non-conference college basketball is when you lose games, as long as it’s not to the bottom hundred in America, it really doesn’t matter very much.

Jeff Nadu:

So, not only do they have some good wins, they don’t have any bad losses either, frankly. So, I guess Georgia is a bad loss, but ultimately they’ve got plenty of time to right the ship, and they did it last night.

TJ Rives:

They did so. Ian Cameron is with us for the first time this week. So yes, I am beaming with what happened there with Memphis. We’re not going to only just focus on that game, but clearly this a Tiger team that was preseason top 10, had lost four games in a row. They needed to make a statement. They came together as a team in that game last night. I don’t know how long that’s going to last, Ian, but it was impressive against what is a really good Alabama team, right?

Ian Cameron:

No, it was a great win, no question. And they needed one in the worst way. I mean this is pretty embarrassing what was happening to Memphis the last several games. Just not good enough at either end of the floor, missing free throws, defensively carved up. Offensively they’ve been hit or miss, but they shredded Alabama, as Jeff mentioned. And look, they got their top players, you’ve got to have your best players be your best. That was the case for Memphis last night.

Ian Cameron:

DeAndre Williams had a great game. Landers Nolley, the Virginia Tech transfer, it’s where he started his career, was solid with 13 points. Jalen Duren chipped in 14 points. You had everybody contributing in some way positively for Memphis. Now before we get too excited about what a great win, maybe it’s sign of a turnaround for Memphis, it’s one game, and I want to see more from this of this team. And let’s keep in mind, Alabama was off a highly emotional, intense, physical battle with Houston. Bad feelings on both sides.

Ian Cameron:

It was a pretty nasty chippy affair in that game. And I don’t think Alabama was fully prepared and ready to turn around and just a couple days later play this Memphis team. I think that played a little part in it, but Memphis has a chance to prove to me that they can go on a run. And how do they do that? Show me what you do Saturday when you face Tennessee. That’s my challenge to Penny Hardaway and this group.

Ian Cameron:

It’s fine and dandy to beat Alabama, get a nice win here. But if you turn around and you play like crap Saturday against Tennessee, which you’ve done before many times this season, what good is this win? You’ve got to follow it up, and we’ll see if Memphis can do that on Saturday.

TJ Rives:

All good takes there from our handicappers. Again, I’m smiling because I’m an alum there on that. And Penny Hardaway needed that in the worst way. I mean I know from talking with a lot of people in and around Memphis media, et cetera, they were after him. They are still to a degree after him, but that was a statement made by Memphis. Let’s see if it continues, including the alley-oops, being thrown to Duren and to others. They played with heart. They played together.

TJ Rives:

They looked like a team last night. So, that’s good. From Tuesday, it’s time now to take a look at how we did on Tuesday. It was another three and one night back to back three and one nights for the first two nights of this week off of this show, six and two this week. 14 and three, by the way, in the last four days for our handicappers going back to last Thursday. Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, 14 and three.

TJ Rives:

And you see the numbers now have crept right at the 500 mark, including Kyle Hunter being over the 500 mark with him getting both of his plays correct on Tuesday night. The big man on campus is right there at the 500 mark. And Ian Cameron is right here with us as well, right at that mark. So, we’ve done well on the show. And Ian, haven’t had a chance to say publicly on the show here that you did well at the end of last week. You got what? I believe you went like five and one, or six and one off the two days, Thursday and Friday.

Ian Cameron:

I got six and one personal run for me.

TJ Rives:

Kudos to you on that.

Ian Cameron:

So, let’s keep it going though. That’s nice. I like the six and one. I want to add to it. Let’s see.

TJ Rives:

However, as we keep talking about, it’s only about the future. It’s only about today. The peeps that are tuning in, wherever you’re watching us, you want to hear about this, by the way, get some questions and comments in the Q&A, we’ll try to get to them. We’ve got a busy slate, but we’ll try to get to some Q&A questions and comments. Let’s begin with an intriguing game, mid major conference game that has Chattanooga taking on Belmont here.

TJ Rives:

This one, speaking of Tennessee in Nashville, so Chattanooga comes west in the state as a five and a half point underdog. The total 140 in this one. And Ian Cameron, we’re going to go right back to you with what you like in this. And in fact, it may end up being a double play if I see this correctly for you in this. Tell the audience about what you like and why?

Ian Cameron:

In the pre-season preview show, I had mentioned liking Belmont from a future standpoint here to win the NCAA tournament, bet online. But with my selection in this game from a side perspective, I guess you could say I’m about to mock what I said that day.

TJ Rives:

Because Chattanooga’s nickname is the moccasins. I know that, not everybody may know that. I’m just trying to help you with your humor and your punchline. You’re not looking to mock them. I got you.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. So look, I think this is a challenging spot for Belmont. Belmont’s a very good basketball team, coming off a great win against St. Louis. We know under Casey Alexander, just fluidity of offense that they run. They brought back mostly everybody from last year’s team inside, outside balance. They’ve got it all. But I think in this matchup, they’re going to be challenged by a very, very good Chatanooga Mocs team.

Ian Cameron:

I think Chatanooga definitely has it to pose problems for them. You look at their record on the road, it’s been very good. What I like about the Mocs is they do play a lot slower compared to Belmont, but they’re very, very efficient offensively. They’ve also got better defensive numbers on the season compared to Belmont going into this game. And I really like what they’ve done here in terms of the transfer portal, they’ve really got a bunch of talent.

Ian Cameron:

David Jean-Baptiste is a terrific score for them. They bring in the Kansas transfer, Silvio De Sousa, who of course we remember swinging the chair in the brawl with K-State last year. He’s had some problems off the court as well, but he’s now here entrenched in this Chattanooga program, and he’s played very well for them in the low post area. I really like what I’m seeing from Chattanooga. Like I say, their defensive play has been pretty solid. And when you look at this situation here, Chattanooga’s just been a point spread machine.

Ian Cameron:

They played their best basketball on the road. They have a road win at VCU on their resume. Belmont’s played a very challenging schedule. They played Furman, they’ve played a good Iona team, they’ve played Dayton, St. Louis, a nice road win in their last game. But I think when you look at this game for Chatanooga, I think defensively there’s a little bit of an edge. They’ve certainly got the offensive efficiency, I think, to match up well with the zone. Get the college basketball spreads.

Ian Cameron:

And another reason I think they match up well with the zone here is because they’re a really good rebounding team, and sometimes it’s difficult to rebound when you play zone. That’s just the way it is. Look at Syracuse, two of their last games against Georgetown against Villanova, they couldn’t grab a board. They couldn’t grab a rebound to save themselves in that game. So, those extra possessions in what we think is going to be a competitive game, could end up going to Chattanooga here.

Ian Cameron:

I think it’s going to be a tight ball game either way. I take the points here with Chattanooga. And I’m also on the over, in this game at 140. We’ve seen Belmont at home get their pace of play, Lipscomb, Furman in previous home games. Chattanooga does want to slow it down, but the way I see it, I don’t think I’ll lose both of these. I think I’ll go one in one, or two and O, obviously hoping for two and O. But I think if Belmont covers, the game’s probably going to go over the total.

Ian Cameron:

And even if Chattanooga covers, I think it could still go over the total, because even though they play slow, they’re very efficient at the offensive end. They’re both good free throw shooting teams, that can help you as well push this game over the total. So, I’m on a side and total. It worked out well, TJ, Thursday with Monmouth and St. Johns. I was on a side end total in the same game, and we went two and O with that, hopefully the same here. I’m on Chattanooga plus the points and over 140. See the college basketball picks.

TJ Rives:

Very interesting, very compelling case he makes. Big man on campus, do you have a thought on this, if not an official play?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m not sure whether that drive to Charleston was longer or that breakdown for me and Cameron, but here we are. Just kidding. No, I agree with Ian. I didn’t understand this line, quite frankly. I don’t think people are kind of understanding Chattanooga is a pretty damn good team. I actually think they’re the best team in the SoCo when it’s all said and done. They really play kind of a frustrating, slow pace. And the difference that we have with this group, as opposed to a team like Virginia or Tarleton State who play similar paces, Chattanooga is actually very efficient.

Jeff Nadu:

Very good offensive team, really hit the glass hard, and make their free throws. There’s an interesting kind of thought here if you’re Chattanooga, how do you defend Belmont? Because Belmont is tough, because they have a kid down low, Muszynski, who’s so adept around the rim. But also if you double him, he can kick it out to a bevy of different shooters that have been hot. I feel like if you’re Chattanooga, maybe you just let him do what he does and just kind of hang in the game other ways.

Jeff Nadu:

I think there’s pass to offense for both teams here. I think Chattanooga’s just better overall on both sides of the ball. If you’re going to give me five, five, five and a half, six and a half, whatever the number is, I would be on Chatanooga here. I agree with Ian.

Ian Cameron:

And keep your eye on Malachi Smith, just a walking bucket here for Chattanooga.

TJ Rives:

I was about to go there and you beat me to it. I love it.

Ian Cameron:

He’s just an absolutely terrific player, and he’s going to be a tough guard for Belmont here in this game. And I’ll be honest, Belmont’s defense has gone away and disappeared at times. There’s a team we’re about to talk about, Ohio, in another game on the card tonight. They had no defense against that Ohio team, and I can’t get that out of my mind. And the one thing about Chattanooga is they get good shots and they’re going to make Belmont work on the defensive end here tonight.

TJ Rives:

And you bet, you went right where I was going, Malachi Smith, 27 or more in each of the last three games, all wins obviously, for the Mocs. So, let’s lock it in on the Mocs and on the over for Ian Cameron. So, he’s on both Chatanooga getting the five and a half and on the over for tonight. Game number two on the docket is Marshall and the aforementioned Ohio Bobcats here. This one coming in Ohio with the Bobcats laying three and a half. Our number is 157 on the over under for that. Let’s begin with Jeff Nadu. Jeff, what do you like about this match up tonight with Marshall and Ohio?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think this should be a pretty exciting game. I mean two pretty good mid-major teams over the years. One thing we know about Dan D’Antoni is his teams are generally top five, top 10 in pace every year. No different this year, second in the country, an average adjusted tempo. So, they’re running plays, they want to go quick, they want to get their head down and get to the rim. That’s how they score. There’s not a bunch of threes being shot. They don’t get to the line a whole lot.

Jeff Nadu:

They want to put their head down and get out in transition. It’s that simple. And against Ohio, I have some major concerns for Ohio’s defense quite frankly in this game. This is one of the worst transition defenses you’ll find. And if this game does get into the half court, I’m not sure if individually they could defend Taevion Kinsey and Marshall.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at last season, Kinsey did whatever he wanted in this game against Ohio. He had 28 points, was nine for 11 from the field, and only got to the line eight times, but he was efficient. This is just a really good offensive team, and they play with a lot of pace. There’s going to be a plenty of opportunities for them to make shots. You look at that game last season in Ohio guys, Marshall had 1.17 points per possession with 74% from the two point variety in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

Just dreadful defensively was Ohio. I don’t really know how to grade this, because I don’t think they’re very defensively, Marshall, and I think this game could be a fun back and forth game. I don’t really care about the winner. I just want to take Marshall. When you look at when they play anyone with a pace pulse, like that runs even a bit, like they’re not 300 to worse in pace. Marshall gets to 80 and it’s pretty simple. I’m going to take their team total here to 77 and a half and play over. I think at worse they get to 80 in a losing effort.

TJ Rives:

All right. Ian Cameron, a thought? And you also have a play on this game as well. Go ahead.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I have four and a half on Marshall. I’m keeping it though as an official play at plus three and a half, which is the current number here. Ohio’s kind of disappointed me. Now granted LSU and Kentucky, their main two losses, no shame in either of those. But to me, they’ve not really had that offensive prowess. They’ve kind of slowed it down. It’s going to be a little bit of a pace war. Ohio’s playing a lot slower than they’ve played in years past.

Ian Cameron:

And we know, as Jeff mentioned, Dan D’Antoni, what you’re going to get from them, a blistering pace. But offensively Ohio hasn’t been as good as I thought they would. And I think when you look at it, Marshall could punish them down low. The two point defense for Ohio’s been pretty bad at times this year. And I think that when you look at Marshall, we know in the past they’ve had some good perimeter firepower.

Ian Cameron:

I find this year they’ve got much more ability to beat you inside offensively, and that could be a weakness for Ohio. Like I said, defending around the rim and their two point defense just hasn’t been very good this year. Taevion Kinsey, Jeff mentioned him, you watch this guy play, you think you’re watching Russell Westbrook, seriously. I mean he’s a speed demon on the court. He gets from end to end of the basketball court, incredibly fast.

Ian Cameron:

Just a terrific playmaker, shooter, you name it for Marshall. I think this is going to be a problematic matchup here for Ohio. To think that this line opened five, I was really surprised, because I thought this should have been much closer to pick’em than it was. We’ve seen, I think the markets agree with my assessment, that this line was a bit too high on Ohio. It’s come down to three and a half and I’m going to keep it as an official play. I think Marshall could win this game in outright fashion actually. So, like in the team total that Jeff mentioned, but yeah, I’ll go with the plus points.

Jeff Nadu:

Just to kind of build off what Ian mentioned with the pace from Ohio. I think this is really just a case of kind of the teams they’ve played, because in a further inspection of their schedule, they’ve played Mount St. Mary’s, Stetson, Cleveland State, teams that play slow and they played slow in those games. But you look at when they’ve played teams that want to run, i.e. Belmont, LSU per se wants to run, but St. Francis of PA, Robert Morris, when they played teams that want to run, the scores were indicative of those games.

Jeff Nadu:

They were high scoring games. I just think they’re really a case of they kind of just play and dictate to what anyone else wants to do. If the team wants to run, they’ll run. If they want to play slow, they’ll play slow. So, I think that bodes well for Marshall, especially in a game that they generally dictate pace in. So, I actually, if you’re looking at a total here, I understand why it’s so high and I’d almost play with it. I just am more adept at just believing Marshall will have passed offense. And I think Ian, I think both games that he picked from a side perspective makes sense. I don’t really understand either number.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. And one last thing too, about the pace. That’s a good point, because you look at the Belmont game, we just talked about Belmont. Look at the points scored in that game. Look at the pace of play in that game. It was definitely a faster one. I actually did have the over circled as potentially using it as an official play, because that is a bet of mine, the over. But you look at it now, at BetUS it’s 157, and it opened 152. It just moved too much for me to make that official. But I do like that over in theory as well. It is a bet of mine, just not an official play for this show.

TJ Rives:

All right. So, seven and three Marshall, seven and two Ohio. Should be a very entertaining game. Let’s see again what our handicappers are doing officially here. Again, the big man is on the Marshall team total over and Ian Cameron says, hey, it’s still juicy at three and a half, even though he got it at four and a half for this matchup tonight. Okay, we continue. Let’s swing west of there and let’s take a look at Missouri State and South Dakota State with Missouri State laying three and a half points. Our number 155 and a half for this matchup. And again, Jeff Nadu went right to this game for a reason. Big man on campus, the floor is yours. What do you like and why, officially? Check the sportsbook.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m going to play the over here. These are two of the better offensive teams you don’t hear about. Look, I’ve banged the drum for South Dakota State for a long time. This for decades has been one of the top mid major offenses you’ll find. That’s just how they play. And 9.5 out of 10 times, every time they play, they’re going to be efficient offensively. The problem they have is they’re not very good on the defensive end and they never have been. It’s just not easy to play defense with the way they play offense.

Jeff Nadu:

They like the lamp, they make shots, they hit threes and they don’t get back defensively. This is a group, they gave up almost a hundred to Idaho, one of the worst teams in the country. So, this is not a team that’s just going to whip into shape defensively. It’s just not going to happen. They don’t play Dick Davis style for that. And when you look at Missouri State, I’m not sure they can stop South Dakota State. No one really can.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s not like you go in and say, “Well, we’re going to expect to hold this team to 60.” You’re just not going to do it. But from Missouri State, I don’t really see either team stopping the other. Missouri State has two kids down low in Prim and Mosley that I think will absolutely destroy South Dakota State. I don’t see any stops in this game. It’s that’s simple. Both these offenses have success. I don’t see any real way they stop each other. They’re both very good from three, they’re both very good from the line. This is kind of one of those perfect storm type of wagers.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s almost like in college football when you have two teams that, for instance, there’s a ball game involving SMU and I believe Virginia. And you look at that game and you say yourself, “Okay, where are the paths on stopping each other here?” And it’s like, “Well, they both throw a ton. They both have high level quarterbacks. They both have really good receivers.” Nine times out of 10, you’re going to get the game you want here. I just don’t see a lot of stops in this game. I had this total at like 159, 160. I got 155 and a half, I thought there was value there. I think this is a real fun offensive game. I’m going to go over the number.

TJ Rives:

If I’m looking correctly, and you guys correct me if I’m wrong on the numbers, in their last game, which was a win over Washington State, a Pac-12 team for South Dakota State, that is the only time that they have failed to score at least 80 points. Am I right in that? They have 80 or more in every other game. And I’m looking at one, two, three, four, five games where they have six, where they have 90 or more in the game. When you’re talking about pace and points scored. And I know you guys are big into the numbers. That is a lot of scoring.

Jeff Nadu:

And what happens in their games is, like I said, you can always depend that they’re going to score, it’s just what they do. That’s just how they play. And as far as the problem they have is they can’t stop the opponent either. It’s not like they’re allowing tons of points to Gonzaga and Duke. I mean, they’re playing Bradley, they’re playing Washington, George Mason, Prairie View put up 90 against this team. An opponent that shouldn’t score 90. Like I said, Idaho is a bottom 20 team in America and scored 98. Look, this is the kind of game in college basketball, when I play a game, whether it’s like last night with that UNC team total, I wasn’t mad that it didn’t hit. I felt like I was on the right side. It just didn’t get there. If this game is 72-70, then so be it. I’m going to play it every single time.

TJ Rives:

I mean, again, there are no guarantees, but this team has only again been under 80 points one time. I don’t know that they’re going to score 72 only tonight in this game. They may not win it against Missouri State. Ian, I’m hogging the conversation with Jeff. Do you anything on this game, if not an official play?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. Zero argument. I like the over as well. It makes sense. Total sense. And when you look at Missouri State under Dana Ford, again, you look at when they played certain teams and played teams with pace, how did it go? Well, you look at SEMO, Southeast Missouri State, Long Beach State, games like that against teams that play fast, the game went over the total. And good offensive teams. So, I think you’re going to see that here. I don’t think I’ve ever seen in my lifetime capping college basketball, or watching it, a bad South Dakota State offensive team. I mean, I just haven’t, they’ve been terrific. They’ve had so many good offensive players. And they’ve got a bunch this year as well on this team with Douglas Wilson, and Noah Frito, and Baylor Scheierman, they can absolutely fill it up. Watch out for Gaige Prim on the Missouri State side, he’s a terrific player, terrific scorer for them. You should be able to fill it up against a soft South Dakota State defense as Jeff alluded to. So, should get paid, should get offensive efficiency, both teams plus 70% from the free throw line. In fact, Missouri State, nearly 80% from the free throw line. So, you have teams that can make their free throws from the charity strike as well. So, this game should be high scoring.

TJ Rives:

All right, let’s lock it in for Jeff Nadu for one of his official plays on the day and that is over the total in this South Dakota State teams match up with Missouri State coming up on Wednesday night.

TJ Rives:

Let’s swing all the way out west from Missouri to California, where USC, Southern Cal, an NCAA tournament team and an Elite Eight team a year ago in the crazy COVID-19 compressed tournament that was in Indiana exclusively last year. USC comes back this year and has gotten off to a 10 and O start. They’re laying 11 and a half points with UC Irvine. Love the nickname of the Anteaters. Our total is 127 in this game. I know our handicappers don’t have an official play, but I wanted to get some thoughts on USCs start to the season and the fact they are right now number 10 in the country. I know the big man on campus kind of poo-poos the rankings, but for whatever it’s worth, in the AP poll they are 10th right now at 10-0. Any thoughts here, guys? Ian Cameron, I’ll go to you first. You have a thought at all about USC in particular hosting Irvine?

Ian Cameron:

It’s a really good game actually, believe it or not. I’m excited to see how it plays out. You look at Irvine, the terrific defense they have. Really, I mean that, and that’s going to be a good challenge I think for a USC. They’re absolutely terrific. They’re field goal numbers are outstanding. They’re just really, really good. Both ends of the… Two point defense, three point defense. So, we’re going to see if that Irvine defense and the Anteaters can show up here in this game.

Ian Cameron:

The one concern that you, and another thing too is, you look at it too, USC, they’re pretty good in the defensive end as well. USC has been off to a terrific, terrific start. There’s no denying that, whatsoever. They’ve been playing some really good basketball.

Ian Cameron:

You can quibble a little bit about the schedule. They did have a pretty solid win against San Diego State earlier this year, but they haven’t exactly played dynamite competition by any stretch of imagination. Utah was a pretty good win. They’ve made a good hire in Craig Smith. But other than that, they’ve faced a little bit of a lighter schedule. And Irvine, you know, and then these games where it’s the smaller, little brother team inside the state, you know you are going to get a good effort from them.

Ian Cameron:

I lean to taking the points and I lean to the under. It’s probably a game I’m not going to get involved in from a betting perspective, but I do like what USC has done. I just think Irvine’s got the defensive ability, in my opinion, to maybe hang inside a number of 11 and a half, like what they’re getting in this game. And I think when you look at these two teams, they’ve been very good, like I said, guarding and defending this year. Irvine’s going to want to slow things down. So, the total is 127. Probably it will be go under. I just don’t love betting unders with a total this low, but I figure it should be a game that’s fairly low scoring.

TJ Rives:

Isaiah Mobley is the outstanding guard for USC. Jeff Nadu, any thought? I know you don’t have an official play, what about it?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I have some real, I mean, quite frankly, I have some real worries about Irvine in this game. I mean, as Ian alluded to, it is a matchup in state, but there are so many teams in California and these teams are so far away from each other as far as just where they are. Look, Irvine’s a good program, but there’s a couple things that I think they struggle with here. USC is gigantic. They’re very athletic. And generally that difference is shown pretty quickly in games like this. Colin Welp, the big for Irvine, I have to wonder how effective he’ll be in this game. It feels like if you could take and throw some height out there, he’s going to struggle.

Jeff Nadu:

When I look at last year, these two teams played last season. They had a kid Dawson Baker who actually played pretty well in this game for Irvine. He’s actually out with a hand injury, so he’s not going to play tonight. This is already a team that kind of struggles to score.

Jeff Nadu:

And when you look at USC, in their 10 wins, seven have come by double digits. Ian mentioned some of their competition. In those games against, let’s say better competition, in Utah and San Diego State they won by 15 and by 20. The only game they didn’t win by double digits were Temple, which is not a terrible team. You know, Washington State, not bad either. But they’ve taken care of what they needed to take care of.

Jeff Nadu:

I just don’t know if UC Irvine has any success offensive in this game. I might look towards a team total under from them. You’re not going to get a pace as it is. They’re very poor in half court offensively and they’re without their best three point shooter. So, for me, I’d lean Irvine, a team total under.

Jeff Nadu:

The reason I don’t want to play USC. I don’t hate it. USC is awful from the free throw line. And I don’t want to be laying 11 and a half here, and this is a 10 point game with 30 seconds left and I’m having to worry about whether they make free throws or not. They are dreadful from the line. 355th of 358 teams and free throw percentage. I would maybe avoid that just a little bit. And in a game where possessions are important, I want every possession I can get. Look, if USC made 70% of their free throws, I would be on them here against Irvine, but they don’t.

TJ Rives:

Fair enough. So, the handicappers will pass officially on the Irvine Anteaters and the USC Trojans. Again, USC looking to be 11-0, with a win out west, coming tonight. Keep the questions coming in the Q&A, we see them. We’re trying to get to three or four of them, if we can, here at the tail end of the show. We’re live every weekday, Monday through Friday at 13:00, Eastern time. So, if you’re on the live show with us, and in the live chat, we do try to get to questions and asks about different things, including games.

TJ Rives:

One more game that is an official play for one of our handicappers tonight, and that is the game at Washington State. Speaking of Wazzu, they did play USC to a two point game, the Bruins beat, or the Trojans, excuse me, beat them 63-61. Washington State laying seven and a half with New Mexico State. New Mexico State with a couple of wins over New Mexico already in the month of December, beat them at their place in Las Cruces and in Albuquerque. The total, 136 in this one. Ian Cameron, what do you like for the matchup here? Ian Pullman, Washington.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. When you look at Washington State, it’s actually two teams I like, but when I look at this particular matchup here, I think New Mexico State got what it takes to keep this game relatively competitive. And what I like about New Mexico State is, they didn’t really play great games in their last three, but they found ways to win. Utep, New Mexico in overtime on the road, Loyola Marymount in their last game. And I love that Chris Jans isn’t letting this team get comfortable or feel good. He says, we’re very lucky we won those games. We didn’t really do a whole lot well and we still won. So, I kind of like that he’s saying that. He’s letting them know that, hey, we won those games, but we’re capable of playing a lot better. I really like what they’ve got in terms of talent here, Teddy Allen, Jabari Rice. Two very good scores here for New Mexico State.

Ian Cameron:

You look at Washington State, I think when you’re talking about laying points here, there’s some issues that I have. I think rebounding could be a little bit of a challenge here. New Mexico State certainly could be good in that aspect here, in a game like this.

Ian Cameron:

And oftentimes New Mexico State, I find they’re capable of stepping up in games of this magnitude when they’re playing power conference teams. They’re not always that team that’s going to get just eviscerated and just completely outplayed from an athleticism standpoint. I think New Mexico State with the points.

Ian Cameron:

And also it’s worth noting there’s a couple key injuries for some of these bench players for Washington State. They’ve been a little bit banged up. The flu has been running through the team a little bit, according to head coach Kyle Smith. So, that’s impacted them a little bit going into this game. So, this may be a little bit of a shorthanded Washington State bunch as well tonight for this game. So, I think we get a close game. And New Mexico State certainly I don’t think we’ll be in awe or fearful of this Washington’s State team, which is a good rising, improving program in the PAC 12. But I think New Mexico State has some advantages here to keep this game close. So, we’ll take the points here with the Aggies.

TJ Rives:

Let me correct something I said, they split with New Mexico. New Mexico beat them in Las Cruces.

Ian Cameron:

That’s what I thought. They lost one of them.

TJ Rives:

Yes, that’s correct. And the Mexico scored 101 points on them in Las Cruces, then they and around and beat New Mexico in Albuquerque at The Pit, in their place, in an overtime game on a last second shot.

TJ Rives:

Jeff Nadu, any thoughts here from you? I mean, as Ian was alluding to, this is New Mexico State team that barely beat Loyola Marymount, barely won the New Mexico game by two, barely beat Utep by three, now big step up in competition, or at least enough of a step up against Washington State. Jeff, any thoughts on this, if no official play?

Ian Cameron:

Well, I didn’t play it. I don’t have any interest in playing it. I wish Ian the best with it, quite frankly. I think he’s probably on the right side of here. I like New Mexico State. I think at any rate, this is probably a close game.

Ian Cameron:

The concern I have is, it seems like any good guard can kind of do what they want against Washington State. Or sorry, New Mexico State. That was evident with Jaylen House putting 31 on the board against them. They’re also without Donnie Tillman, I believe, which isn’t ideal. He’s a good kind of wing player for them, a kid out of Detroit, Michigan.

Ian Cameron:

But I think ultimately it’s probably the right play. New Mexico State is too good of a dog to be this many, I mean, this is three possession number. I mean, if it’s three, four, I understand, but seven and a half, I think New Mexico State could win this game. It wouldn’t surprise me. I think they’re a very good dog. They’ve beaten some decent teams. Beat Irvine, who we talked about, beat a good Utep team, beat a real solid Davidson team, hung right in with New Mexico as we know. So yeah, I think it’s probably a good play.

Ian Cameron:

I do want to quickly mention, someone in the chat is discussing teaser bets in basketball. And again, occasionally we talk about kind of how we do things as handicappers and kind of like things that I’ve learned over the years. And I think ultimately that’s an important job from someone like me who has done this for a long time. I have been doing it for since I was eight, nine years old. I’m 32.

Ian Cameron:

And I almost look at myself as if you’ve ever seen Rounders, there’s a scene when Joey Kish basically tells Mike McDermot that look, gambling is not a game. You have to treat it like it is. And you have to realize that there are swings and misses and you do it for the love of it. And the fact that it can pay the bills occasionally, it’s not a way to fantasize and get rich. It’s not going to happen like that. And I feel like when I see something that I don’t agree with, I’ll mention it. And maybe you can learn from something.

Ian Cameron:

Playing teasers in basketball is a bad strategy. Now, ultimately you’re going to do what you want to do, but teasers are all about key numbers and I’m not really sure that there’s any key number in basketball. When you’re playing for football, let’s say in the NFL, and you have two, six and eight point favorites, teasing them down to zero, makes a huge difference. I mean, you’re getting really sharp lines in the NFL, and if you can move it a touchdown, per se, that’s huge.

Ian Cameron:

But again, like I see people teasing like a 22 point favorite to an 18 point favorite. It’s a really odd strategy. Look, if you have, let’s say two favorites at four and a half that you like, right, and you want to tease them down and just having to win. Instead of doing that, take both teams to just parlay them. You’re going to get a better payout. It’s going to be a plus money payout, and you need both to win anyway. Teasers should never be on your basketball card, in my opinion. And again, you’re a man, you make your own decisions, but I think it’s important to mention that. And I think Ian would probably agree.

Ian Cameron:

I agree. I’ve never been a basketball teaser in my life. I’m not about to start.

TJ Rives:

Well, there you go. On the question and answer about the teaser…

TJ Rives:

Wait, let’s do this officially. Let’s lock in the only official play on Washington State and New Mexico State, and that is Ian taking the road team and the points. And just one more real quick, Washington State put the sleeper hold on Arizona State back a couple of weeks ago, held them to only 29 points. That’s an Arizona State team now. Go figure the PAC-12 that has gone and beaten Oregon at Oregon, and now has gone and won at Creighton, Bobby Hurley’s team. So the PAC-12 may have a little more strength than what we thought. Don’t know. We’ll see what happens with Washington State and New Mexico State, tonight.

TJ Rives:

Let’s get to some of what you guys are wanting to know. Kyle says, “Guys, it’s about Xavier?” Speaking of the top 25 out of the Big East and Morehead State. Xavier is laying 15 in that game. So, out of the Q&A, anybody, either one, got a thought here, Xavier/Morehead State?

Ian Cameron:

I lean Xavier, but I didn’t bet it.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I kind of look at this game a little bit like, I had VMI last night, that was a play made, ended up easily covering. Look, I think Morehead’s too good to be getting this amount of points. Look, I’m not a big Xavier guy. I don’t know if they’re built offensively to lay big numbers like this. Look, if this is Tennessee Tech out of Tennessee, maybe I’d play it. But Morehead, I think they’re a pretty decent team. I think they’ll kind of compete in the OVC. And look, there’s one thing that Morehead does absolutely well, they are not going to put you on the line. Okay. And that is one thing Xavier really wants. If you look at their point distribution, how they score points, 20% of their points come from the free throw line. That is a very high number. Morehead State is the number one defense in the country that doesn’t foul. So, they’re not going to put you on the line. They’re not going to give you easy opportunities. And Johni Broome is an NBA type of player. I would have no interest in Xavier. I’d lean Morehead.

TJ Rives:

Okay. Fair enough. On that.

TJ Rives:

Dalton wants to know UCF, Central Florida out of Orlando and Temple? UCF laying four and a half. Jeff is in the Temple, in the Philadelphia area. You’re in that market. Any thought? You don’t have an official play, but any thought on that game?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I actually like UCF here. Temple’s in a bad way right now.

Ian Cameron:

Khalif Battle injury. Huge.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, it is. And Khalif Battle is very important to the trajectory offensively of this team. I think he had 20 or more points in like five or six games, and we’ve only played what eight games so far. 10 games they’ve played. He’s really important. And look, I don’t look much at their schedule, but the truth that a matter is, every step up game they’ve lost. They even lost a Saint Josie. Look, they only put 49 on the board up against Saint Joe’s. A team that’s regularly in the bottom 50 in America, defensively. That is a disaster. What a pathetic effort that was. And UCF I’m real high on. If you go back to our futures show, I mention UCF as, I think, a real tough team in the American.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re really good on defense. They’re always solid under Johnny Dawkins. And look without Battle, not only do you not get much scoring, but you know, Dunn and Strickland, I don’t think are very good defensively. Jeremiah Williams is a freshman who isn’t really adept at defending without fouling. Perion, Mayhan, and Greene are really good guards, who I think have been real good from the offensive standpoint. And when you look at UCF guys, another important stat, okay, 78% from the free throw line.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at every win UCF has had this year, has come by six or more points. So, when they win games, they put them away at the line. Go back and watch the last five minutes of the game against Miami they played. They strictly covered the game. Miami kept hitting threes in garbage time. And the only reason they covered UCF is because they make free throws. That’s one of the reasons they are very good against the number. I think they go on the road and beat up a beleaguered Temple team.

TJ Rives:

So, even though that wasn’t an official play, you got a lot there from Jeff Nadu off the fan question. So, we always like the fan questions. Keep them coming. We got time for one more. Somebody under the handle, Showtime Costs, says, “Will Arizona, unbeaten, will they touch a hundred points tonight in this game with Northern Colorado?”

TJ Rives:

Now we should say, Jeff, this is kind of like what you’re thinking was with Alabama off an emotional win over Houston, that was at home, they had to go on the road. In Arizona’s case, emotional road victory at Illinois, they come back home, are we thinking they’re going to light it up? Ian, I saw you nodding also. Will Arizona put a bunch of points up tonight? Do we think that?

Ian Cameron:

Well, I’ll tell you what right now. I mean, I’ve cashed a bunch of these Arizona team totals over this year. It’s been one of the great bets for me this year and Northern Colorado’s not even a great defensive team, 233rd in the country.

Ian Cameron:

The only thing that worries me is the spot. You’re right. Huge win against Illinois. But man, you could have thought that going into the Illinois game, because they played Wyoming. Maybe they’d look ahead to that game. They didn’t, they hung a hundred spot on Wyoming in that game. And they’ve been good for basically the nineties and the hundreds in most of their games. I believe the team total right now is 88 and a half with Arizona. I probably still will have a small bed on it. I don’t love the spot at all for the Wildcats here. But, like I say, Northern Colorado’s just not very good defensively. Arizona’s inside-outside balance, their size, their shooting, it could overwhelm this Northern Colorado bunch, if they’re even just the least bit focused for this game. So, I don’t have any issues with someone looking at a team total over for Arizona. Once again, I’ve looked at many this year,

TJ Rives:

Jeff, I saw you react. Anything else on that to add?

Jeff Nadu:

You know, I always look at games like this and I ask myself, “If you gave me a hundred dollar bet, what would I pick here?” I would take the Bears, quite frankly. When you look at their games, they’re actually pretty tough. I mean they hang in every game they play. Like find me a game they got blown out in. And they haven’t. They haven’t been blown in any game. Now they did lose to something called Hawaii Hilo. I don’t know what that is. Sounds like a community college or something, but every other game they’ve hung around in.

TJ Rives:

But isn’t it a fair argument they’re about to play a Godzilla, in a very difficult place to play, and it’s a whole different animal and that’s why the line’s 25?

Jeff Nadu:

Sure, 100%. And you basically said what I’m thinking. You’re getting a boatload of points here, but let’s look at this 10-day stretch for Arizona. Okay. Opened up at Corvallis on December 5th, came back three nights later, back at home against Wyoming, then went on the road and had major issues traveling to Illinois. Now come all the way back to Tucson and get Northern Colorado on a Wednesday night, right before Christmas, ahead of a bear of a schedule in the Pack-12, and a big game against Tennessee a week from now.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m not saying that you can’t be fine there. With a first year coach, by the way. Now again, Arizona is definitely the team that can fix those things. But it’s not like we’re getting a terrible offensive team here that turns the ball over left and right. This is actually a pretty good team in Northern Colorado. I’m not saying they’re going to win. I’m not saying they’re going to even within 15, but I could see like an 85-64 type of game here, and they come and hang around. I’m not playing it. But if you’re asking me my opinion, do they hit a hundred? No, I would not say they hit a hundred. No.

TJ Rives:

Stay away from that on the team total. I’m trying to get to a hundred. Let’s get to what the guys are playing on the best bets for tonight. And there are some interesting ones, including Ian is playing two parts of the Chattanooga/Belmont game. He’s going over on the total and he’s also going with the Mocs, plus the five and a half. You see that the big man is going with two different plays on the over, one on the Marshall team total, and one in the South Dakota State/Missouri State game. Ian also on New Mexico State later tonight, with Washington State coming up on Wednesday evening.

TJ Rives:

That brings us to the end of another show. Any final thoughts? Good stuff there, Jeff, on the teasers and what your mindset is. Any other final thoughts guys here before we get out of here on a Wednesday for the audience it’s watching and always looking for advice?

Ian Cameron:

Someone mentioned Fairfield. I laid the points with Fairfield against Fairleigh Dickinson. It’s not on the show as an official play, but Fairfield’s one of the most remarkable stories going right now. They have 13 and three ATS in the last 16 games. They caught fire midway through last year, they made this probable run. They were a disastrous team much of last year. They made this crazy run through the Mac tournament to get to the final before they lost to Iona. And they’ve carried over that momentum into this year. They’ve been a point spread machine. They finally found an offense. This team could barely make a basket early in the season last year. They’ve all of a sudden got an offense. They’ve been a point spread machine. Fairly Dickinson doesn’t play great defense. Re-ride the red hot points spread commodity that has been the Fairfield Stags. You know, since the midway point of last year. I’ve been doing that a bunch lately already this year. So, I like Fairfield laying the points. Someone asked about that.

Jeff Nadu:

Also, just throw it out. I’m pretty high on Nicholls State as a whole. I think they’re a pretty good Southland team. They’re going to play really fast. They’re going into cold center, kind of a situation where Wisconsin is kind of right before Christmas, right before their conference schedule. I think Nicholls is a bit better than 19 and a half. Wisconsin is not exactly adept at blowing teams out. They could definitely do it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Nicholls hang around. They’re actually not that bad. They hung around against a couple of better teams. Ty Gordon’s a really good player. I don’t think it’s out of the question to think they hang around.

Jeff Nadu:

But I think we had a great show today. A lot of great information. Hopefully you’re able to cash out on something tonight and I wish everybody best a luck.

Ian Cameron:

And lean Utah State in that Utah State/Weber game. But I’ve had bad luck with Utah State. I’m staying away from them.

TJ Rives:

Yeah. They’ve had that close game with St. Mary’s, that I don’t know that Ian’s even gotten over that even two weeks later. I bring it up here again.

Ian Cameron:

I have.

TJ Rives:

You’ve moved on that. We’ve got to move on here again. Good luck with your plays guys. We’re six and two on the show for the first two nights of this week. We’ll see how the guys do with their different games or different matchups. Jeff Nadu, thank you. Ian Cameron, thank you. And we thank you for being with us here on the BetUS College Basketball Show.

Ian Cameron:

Enjoy the games and good luck everybody. Thank you.

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