Jeff Nadu:
I’m feeling all right. I didn’t have a real good night last night. I ended up having one other game that I didn’t talk about on here… Well, I did talk about on here, but that ended up being the winner of the night for me. But the two plays I gave out just didn’t get the pace I wanted. We’ve seen the last couple of nights, these games that are aligned like 155, 160, they’re not coming anywhere close. And I’m noticing something. Mid Major Matt mentions this, first half overs might be the way to go. It seems like in the second half, these games just crash into a hole.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah, teams tend to slow down depending on who it is. For example, Arizona stayed on the gas and got to 101 points, even with a big lead on Northern Colorado at home. Boy, that team, they look loaded. Ian, I know you want to make a quick comment about that. Whatever it’s worth in December, they look final four worthy right now.
Ian Cameron:
Oh, I don’t just like this team, I love this team. I love everything about it. I love it from the day they hired Tommy Lloyd. I love what he’s done with this team. He’s letting them play to their strength, which is their athleticism. Getting out and run, getting out and transition, letting them just bomb away, using their talent to their advantage, and they’ve got a lot of it. You got Dalen Terry, you’ve got Christian Koloko, you’ve got Azuolas Tubelis, you’ve got Bennedict Mathurin. You’ve got Kriisa. I mean, this is a team in look it, they all had double digits in scoring last night against Northern Colorado. And what was supposed to be a potential flat spot for Arizona coming off the big win against Illinois. And they still hang 101 points. We mentioned these Arizona team totals to the over. I bet that a bunch of them this season cashed a bunch of them. And I’m mad as hell that I didn’t go back to the well last night with it.
Ian Cameron:
But I did mention it on the show. I would look that way and sure enough. Look, this Arizona team, the more I watch them guys, maybe we’re prisoner of the moment. Maybe this is going to be an example of a team that peaked too early. Maybe non-conference they play well. And then the grind of the PAC-12 season gets them and they fall off a bit. That could always happen. I don’t know if it’s going to happen with this group though. The more I watch, the more I’m impressed. A and I think not only a tournament team, but geez, if they keep this up, maybe a team that could win at least a couple games in the tournament. There’s nothing not to like, and the coach was a, A plus home run hire from the beginning, from the Mark Few coaching tree. Nothing for me not to like with the Arizona Wildcats.
T.J. Rives:
And Jeff just real quick, the USC game, which we did talk about with Cal Irvine, they struggled mightily to put them away and only won it by five. I mean, it was a two point game with three minutes left in that one. And they only got to what, 66 points, or whatever at home. So, and again, that’s an 11-0 USC team these are the two top teams, arguably along with UCLA, probably the top three teams in the pack 12. But just as an example, USC maybe did have a little bit of a flat night or did we give Irvine a little bit of credit real quick?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, they didn’t do what I said they wouldn’t do. And they didn’t make free throws. They were 15 for 24 from the line. That’s nine misses. They won by five laying 11. You figure if they just make five more, they’re right in the coverville, probably. They didn’t though. They didn’t shoot well from three either. And look in those kind of games, you just don’t have many possessions. And there weren’t many possessions. This game I believe pushed, may have won under if you got the right number. But yeah, look, USCS going to struggle all. I think they’re a good athletic team and they’ll beat teams like [Carol Irvine 00:04:44].
Jeff Nadu:
But once they get into facing Oregon, and Arizona, and teams like that, I think they’re going to struggle, because they don’t have Evan Mobley, that kind of player. Look, Isaiah Mobley’s a good player. He ain’t Evan Mobley. But all in all it was… Look, I would’ve did for a card like last night, tonight. This is the worst card I’ve seen in a long time, even dating back to last year. This is dreadful stuff here on a Thursday. Got to be better.
T.J. Rives:
But, but we will try to make lemonade out of it. Let’s go ahead and take a look at our record, which coming off last night, Ian had a couple of wins. Big man on campus says, “Hey, I need to recover a little bit after a couple losses last night.” The key number is what Ian Cameron, since last Thursday show leading into today, now five shows, what’s the record?
Ian Cameron:
16 and seven for the entire crew since last Thursday. That’s me. That’s Jeff. That’s Kyle. That’s Matt, combined.
T.J. Rives:
All right. So, we’ll take that right now. As we inch again towards the 500 mark and you see Ian right there at it, as is Jeff Nadu. So, that is going to get us underway. Again, it’s not going to take long to go through the card. It doesn’t mean that we don’t have a couple of games of interest. And one of those is involving the Duke Blue Devils. Duke and Appalachian State. Now there had been some question whether Appalachian State, because of a couple of COVID 19 positives would be able to play this game. As it stands, as we get underway here at one Eastern time, they are playing at Cameron tonight, due playing 22 points in this when we’re right back to Jeff Nadu on what he is looking at officially for this game tonight. Check the sportsbook.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, the producers didn’t do any favors with this line. I bet this at 20 and a half. Look I guess at 22 I like it. Look, I think when you look at both sides of the fence for App State, you’re going to have a lot of issues here. First of all, it’s a road game. Look, ultimately it’s not a far trip, but it’s Cameron Indoor. It’s one of the toughest places to play. And, look, every a game is a big ticket there, regardless of who they’re playing. You don’t get App State here, though. This is not a good offensive team. I think they’re really in the camp of, “We want to just burn clock and try to make the score look as good as possible.” There’s no real ways for offense. They shoot a ton of threes. That’s the sign of a team that can’t create offense, and they just jack up threes. Their three point rate is quite high.
Jeff Nadu:
And you look at Duke, I mean three point defense has been great. They get out and they close out on shooters. They’re really long on their perimeter. You look at every player in the perimeter, really outside of Jeremy Roach, is big, they’re long, they’re lengthy, they close out on shooters. I think all in all, it’s going to be a really tough night and hard night for Appalachian State to score. I had them at like 60 points in this game. Look at Duke, Paolo Banchero might have the best game of the season in this kind of game App State has got absolutely punished in the half court. This is one of the worst two point defenses in the country. I really think whatever Duke does, whether it’s through transition, through the half court offense, three point line, free throw line, whatever. I think there’s going to be plenty of opportunities to score in this game.
Jeff Nadu:
I had this at 84/59, something like that. I think Duke just has their way with a bad opponent. We have to remember outside of that South Carolina state game, Duke doesn’t really played. They haven’t played since November 30th, up until two nights ago. It’s not like they really had to extend theirself much in that game. No player on this team played over 27 minutes in that game. So, in that fact they should be ready and rare to go tonight. I think Duke takes care of them in a big way. No look ahead game either here. You got another game before Christmas. So, I think Duke really takes care of App State and wins by like 25.
T.J. Rives:
Ian Cameron, a thought from you about Duke in specific, if not an official play in this game?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah. There’s no doubt that you would think it’s going to be a uphill battle for App State. They got to take the air out of the basketball. Simple as that. Don’t do what South Carolina State did the other night against Duke, because that’s just asking for trouble when you’re outmanned like App State will be in this game. And really it’s a team that they don’t have a lot of options offensively, Adrian Delph, by far is their best score. And outside of that, there’s a drop off in terms of production from a points per game standpoint. And you also look at it’s a very undersized basketball team and look out if Theo John plays tonight for Duke, because if he comes back from that back injury, he didn’t play in the last game. If he comes back, there’s very little size to worry about for App State.
Ian Cameron:
He could absolutely eat in the paint tonight. And really anybody that for Duke if in the front court should be able to have a good performance. Rebounds, that kind of thing. Second chance, third chance opportunities on the glass. Duke should be able to get the majority of those. And that could create some separation here in this game. So, one of those high variance games, I don’t hate what Jeff’s thinking here. But with these teams that shoot a lot of threes, like App State, you’re always worried there’s that night where they’re actually going in. That hasn’t been routinely the case with App State, but it’s always a possibility that could happen. But in a short card you got to find something you like, and certainly App State definitely outmanned here. They’re going to have to hope that they, again, wear down that shot clock, take good shots and hopefully make some. That’s going to be their method of hanging around here in this game.
T.J. Rives:
All right. So, let’s lock it in officially for Jeff Nadu here, he is laying points. As he mentioned, he got it at 20 and a half. The bet US number right now is 22. He’ll stick in there with that right now with Duke. And again, they freight train South Carolina State. Big man, you were talking about this Tuesday, that South Carolina State bad match up because they love by pace of play to go up and down. Love to jack the threes and don’t play much defense. I hear you saying here, at least App State is a little slower paced and a little more disciplined. We’ll see if that makes a difference or we’ll see if Duke doesn’t just run them over as well in this game coming up tonight.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. That definitely, I think, is maybe a saving grace here for App State. But all in all Duke… It’s going to be hard to string together stops in a row for App State. I just don’t think they have the bigs to run with those kids down low, whether it’s Banchero, or if Theo John’s back, or whoever. Look, again, I want to make it very clear. There is not much in this card tonight. I want to have something. This is one that I did bet and I do like. I’m not going to go crazy with this card. I’ll live to see another day tomorrow. But this is one that I had my eye on. But that is one worry. They do go slow and really outside of… There’s not much in the schedule as far as… They played Lafayette, Duke, who plays a very slow and won by 30. So, I worry a bit, but I don’t worry a whole lot.
T.J. Rives:
Fair enough. And, again, on that lighter schedule, our guys we’re analyzing what games there were and to college basketball picks out these three. And, again, we’ll have time for your Q & A, as well. College of Charleston and Stetson will be up next. Stetson out of DeLand, Florida, North Florida here. And that’s where the matchup is. Charleston comes in as a five and a half point road favorite. Our number is 148 and a half on the total. We’re back to Ian Cameron here on what stood out as a play in this matchup.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, this is going to be a pace war here and I’m involved in the total. And when I look at games like this… Look, Charleston’s number one in the country in adjusted tempo, 77.5 possessions per game. They go lightning fast, which is not a shock at all. I got on this quickly, early in the season, looking at Charleston as an over team this year. Of course, they bring in a great coach in Pat Kelsey, who did a great job for years at Winthrop. And you know you’re going to play a lot faster. And let’s not forget back in the Bobby Cremins days going way back, and there’s other coaches they’ve had since then. This was a slowdown half court type of team, Charleston. Totally different now under Pat Kelsey. And usually in match ups like this, where you got one team wanting to play fast, Stetson certainly doesn’t want to do that. They’re 260th in tempo.
Ian Cameron:
I usually like to say, “Well, who’s the better team?” Because I think the better team usually gets to dictate the pace and the tempo. And, to me, that’s Charleston here in this game. So, I do like the over here. And I like that the total’s been bet down. Look, there’s reasons to like the under, I get it. And why it’s been bet down. Stetson’s not going to want to run. But then you look at the actual matchup and the shooting numbers here. Charleston’s a terrific three point shooting team, a 54 in the country, and in terms of three point percentage. And Stetson’s horrible in terms of their perimeter defense, 300th in terms of three point defense for Stetson. Another thing Stetson has an issue with, guys. They don’t hang on to the basketball. They treat it like a hand grenade, turnovers are an issue quite a bit for the Stetson Hatters team. They aren’t very good at valuing the basketball. They turn it over too much. And Charleston, very good forcing turnovers. And you know that fuels that transition game of Charleston, which can be lethal for them.
Ian Cameron:
So, I think when you look at the matchup, I know Stetson’s going to want to slow it down and that’s always your concern in when you’re going to bet an over. Charleston’s going to play fast though. They’re good with the three point shooting. Stetson’s horrible defending it. And Stetson’s had trouble with turnovers and that’s going to fuel probably this Charleston team offensive leave and more. And Charleston’s the better team. And like I say, I think the better team’s got a chance to dictate pace and tempo. And Charleston’s been an over team. What are they? Eight and two, I believe, to the over in 10 games entering this game. So, now the totals in the high 140s, as opposed to where it opened at 151. I like it more now. I think we get into the one 150s here, because I think Charleston’s going to dictate this game. So, I’m on over 148 and a half, Charleston and Stetson.
T.J. Rives:
Okay. Again, in looking at Stetson’s schedule, they have only one win against a division one school. And that came against Lamar by a point. They played two other schools that you’ve never heard of. One of them is Florida Memorial, and a and another one Johnson University of Florida. So, I don’t know that we could put a whole lot into that. Ohio beat this team in their last game against a division one opponent. Big man on campus, any other thoughts here? Charleston, again, a seven in three record. They did play North Carolina earlier in the year. Ian is liking the green light here for their pace of play, and for the way they’re going to play and be able to probably win this game.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. You mentioned the one division one win. I don’t even know if we can call it division one win. Lamar is… Lamar Odom probably could beat that group by itself.
Ian Cameron:
With his broken down legs. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. And all the other stuff he’s used over the last couple years, as we know. I’m not making a joke about that. I’m sorry, I shouldn’t do that. But I will say this, TJ, you highlighted their losses. Outside of Georgia Tech, who I think is a massive step up as far as, even in this game. Charleston’s not a great basketball team. They play with a crazy pace. They’re not very good defensively. I’m starting to see were maybe Stetsons maybe worth a look. I don’t hate Donny Jones team. They’re actually not bad. I know the numbers don’t grade out, but I think they’ll actually play pretty well in the [inaudible 00:15:41] this year. They have some good talent, Rob Perry’s a good player. Mamadou Diara, he’s a kid that can bang down low, I think could be a match up problem. He’s starting to get his legs a little bit.
Jeff Nadu:
I didn’t have much in this game. I’m not a big fan of these pace of play discrepancy type of games. One thing you have to know about Stetson, they played together a long time. They’ve actually, again, in most of the similar type of games, you look at Florida Atlantic, Campbell, FIU, all those games were right around this price. Again, I need a little bit more. I would have hoped to get seven or eight to get involved here. But I think Ian’s right. Charleston will likely dictate pace. I just avoided this game. I think it’s a tough one.
T.J. Rives:
Let’s lock it in for Ian Cameron, officially. And for the audience on BetUS and our college basketball show. Ian on the over in the Charleston, Stetson game. One more game that we’re looking at for an official play. And that is UT Arlington. They are the Mavericks, by the way. The Mavericks are taking on the Eagles of Oral Roberts. And one of the best shooters and scores in the country. We got introduced to him in the NCAA tournament last year in Max Abmas. He continues to light it up for ORU, they are laying seven points tonight. Our over under total is 144 and a half for this one in Tulsa this evening. And we’re back to Ian Cameron who has an official play. Give us more, please, sir.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah. Another over here with this game, Arlington and now Oral Roberts. It’s really, again, and pace is a big part of the thing I look at now. The problem that I’m worried about here, and this is the biggest concern I have with this one is Arlington’s not been shooting the ball well. They’ve played with a decent pace and decent temple this year, before they’ve had some troubles actually making shots. And, look, they’re going to have to in this game against Oral Roberts. But when you look at Oral Roberts defensively, 284th, two point defense, a hundred twenty six, three point defense. It’s not like they’re going to shut you down completely. And I think it’s going to be an opportunity here for Arlington maybe to get something going here offensively. They’ve also had some injuries and they finally got everybody healthy again, UTA. So, that should help.
Ian Cameron:
And you’ve actually kind of seen it that they’ve gotten healthier and they’ve started to play better. They’ve actually covered three of their last four games going into this one. They hung in there pretty well with San Diego State recently. And then, the last couple games they beat UCSB. Santa Barbara outright is underdog 70 to 62. They got their offense going. Now, Lamar was one of those games like, “How did they only score 56 in that game?” But Lamar is just horrible offensively. I don’t think UTA felt the urge to pile on the points, “We can just shut this team down, play a really conservative game, low scoring, and we’ll get the job done.” They’re going to have to score some points here against Oral Roberts who, of course, still have Max Abmas leading them at the offense of end of the floor. And Oral Roberts team averaging 82 points per game this year shooting 44% from the field.
Ian Cameron:
UTA in terms of their defense too, concerning a little bit with their three point defense. And we know Oral Roberts, 38.9% from three point range this year. I think we’ll see enough pace here, enough points. And, look, UTA has played a lot of teams that slog, really slow it down. That’s not necessarily going to be the case here against Oral Roberts. Lamar was a slow down game. But you saw Utah State plays at a decent pace, good offensive team. That game got into the one 140s, and you saw a couple other examples of games where they got a chance to run a little bit. Arlington took advantage of that. And this total’s been hammered, unfortunately we’re not getting the best number here. This was around 140 last night, 141 early this morning. It’s 144 and a half now. So, hate to lose the best of the number, but a minimal card I’m going to stick with it as an official play, even with the diminished blind value here. Arlington and Oral Roberts over 144 and a half.
T.J. Rives:
Very interesting on that, Jeff. We love some of these smaller schools, individual players. And, again, Abmas is arguably an NBA-caliber shooter and guard. I see you nodding along with that. I’m just looking at his last five games. He got 29 against Oklahoma State in an overtime game. He got 38 on Tulsa. But he’s tailed off a little bit by those standards. He had only 20 against TCU. He had 18 against Houston Baptist. And then, in the last game against Missouri State, he had 19 in the road game there. Still, this is a spot at home against UTA, Texas Arlington, where he could go for 30, or he could go for more. And that’s part of the intrigue of this game, the nine and looking at an over total as well.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. And another part of the intrigue is that keep in mind, outside of central Arkansas, I’m still trying to wonder how they lost that game. But outside of that, every team they played is a top 70-ish team. So, I’m not real worried. Look, Max Abmas is one of the best scorers in the country. And, look, they also have some real help around him. Weaver, Jürgens, Kareem Thompson. This is a decent team around him. They lose Kevin Obanor, but they’re still fine. And I think they’re going to be one of the better teams, probably up to the top to go to State and North Dakota in the summit league. This is really for me… If I had to play this game, I’d look more towards Oral Roberts here. I kind of just had them winning this game by double digits.
Jeff Nadu:
UT Arlington’s a complete mess. They can’t hold onto the basketball. And the real concern is Javon Levi the point guard. For whatever reason, he has really struggled moving on from where he was before to UT Arlington. He was at Texas Rio Grande Valley. They used to be Texas-Pan American down in the Southland conference… Or no they’re in the WAC. And you look at his turnover rate. He actually was quite good in his career there. This year his third turnover percentage is up above 32, which is very high. I don’t know what’s happened to him.
Jeff Nadu:
One of their best players, Nick Alame, he’s been out the last couple of games. I think this team just really struggles to string possessions together. And that’s been evident. They just can’t figure out how to not turn the ball over. And that truly hurt them. They can’t shoot the ball well, they haven’t been able to get into their offense. They’re really David [inaudible 00:22:00], for me. Throwing the fact that this is a home game for Oral Roberts. I kind of had it at like 76, 65. I think they pull away and run by double digits here.
Ian Cameron:
By the way, to back up Jeff’s point about the turnover issues for Arlington, they’re 353rd in the country in turnover percentage [crosstalk 00:22:18] that is not good against Oral Roberts. That’s downright awful. And just like I mentioned, with Charleston, three point shooting team, a good one against a suspect three point defense got that here with Oral Roberts as well against Arlington. Oral shoots the three, Arlington is not great at defending it. So, that could be trouble for Arlington.
Jeff Nadu:
One of the wins that UT Arlington had was Mary Hardin-Baylor. That sounds like my 10th grade English teacher. I don’t know what that is. I mean, look, you give up 104 to that team. Or they score 104. How bad is that team probably. My God. UT Arlington is just shocking on offense. That’s that’s ugly.
Ian Cameron:
Let me put it in perspective, guys. 353rd in turnover percentage this year, Arlington with the turnover issues. There’s 358 teams. So, there’s not many teams behind them.
T.J. Rives:
That’s not good. And, Abmas, again, all things being equal might get a 35 or 40 point game in this one. He’s that entertaining. And you saw it in the NCA tournament and saw it for ORU in their late run. They pulled a couple of upsets in their conference tournament just to get in the NCA tournament. He was great in both of those. How will it translate tonight? We will see in that one.
T.J. Rives:
And for UT Arlington, I have some familiarity with them having worked the Sunbelt Championship, the semi-finals and the championship on TuneIn! on national radio for several years. They had a long time former player, former assistant coach, and he was their head coach for over a decade named Scott Cross. Scott Cross had been with UT Arlington for like 20 plus years, player assistant and head coach. They got rid of him. They hired a Texas assistant who had been with Rick Barnes at one point, had been a couple of other places in Chris Ogden, I believe it was. And he came in and brought a lot of transfers in and was only there for like a year or two. And I want to say Ogden is now gone with Chris Beard back to the University of Texas as an assistant. And Arlington is in shambles trying to regroup last year and this year, and build players back up. So, there you go. [Crosstalk 00:24:18].
Jeff Nadu:
I’ve always said this is one of the worst firings of all time. Scott Cross was a good coach. I don’t know why they got rid of him. They were a team that was a really good point spread team. I think it was 2017, maybe? They had a kid called Kevin Hervey, he was a real good player.
T.J. Rives:
Yep.
Jeff Nadu:
Ended up playing for The Rockets for a lot of years. I never understood it. There’s some odd firings. Look, I’ve always said to be a good team in college basketball you have to hire the right coach, same thing in college football. And these teams just make these weird decisions and they don’t hire the right people, or they fire the right people. And that hurts your program a lot. And Texas Arlington’s a prime example of that.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah. They’ve set themselves back and let’s see if ORU lights them up. Q&A time. Get us some questions. Again, there’s not a lot of games to go in, and go over. But we can get a couple of other questions, which I will squeeze in as well. Viewers that are watching us, Jay says, “Thoughts on Jackson State and Drake for tonight?” I don’t know if either one of our handicaps, obviously there’s nothing official here, any insight? Do we have anything there on Drake, out of the Missouri Valley in Jackson state?
Ian Cameron:
I don’t know Jackson State’s horrible offensively. I know that.
T.J. Rives:
Okay.
Ian Cameron:
Absolutely terrible. And the thing with the teams in college basketball these days, I don’t necessarily want to back the underdogs that can’t score. I know there’s some people that say, “Well, I want to back the underdog that plays some defense.” No, I want the underdog to score. Because if they’re down 20, they’re going to get through the back door. They’re going to make some free throws. They’re going to make some shots for me. I don’t trust Jackson State to do that. And I really like this Drake team a lot. They were good last year. They’re good again this year. It’s favorite or pass for me. Didn’t bet it. But I would only lay it,
T.J. Rives:
Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. This is a rough stretch for Jackson state. They played Sunday at Iowa State. Then they filed it right back at Northern Iowa. Now they got to play Drake. They literally played every team in Iowa. My God. Are they going to play Dubuque College next? What’s up next?
T.J. Rives:
It’s the Iowa circuit. [Crosstalk 00:26:18].
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. They’re going to get down to the pickup leagues in Dubuque [inaudible 00:26:23]. But, yeah. Look, Drake’s tough. Jackson state can’t score. I don’t know. I lean Drake.
T.J. Rives:
Bad recipe.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I lean Drake, outside of losing [inaudible 00:26:35], they’re actually really good and very similar to the team they were last year. So, yeah, I would lean Drake.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah. Adrian is [crosstalk 00:26:43].
Ian Cameron:
By the way Jackson State, they’re focused on the celebration bowl and the football team right now with Deon Sanders on Saturday. That’s where the focus is. I don’t think [crosstalk 00:26:50].
T.J. Rives:
And they got the number one defensive back recruit in America, Deion, did. And ripped him away from Florida state on national signing day on Wednesday. How about that? In the state of Florida there are a lot of people in Florida going crazy over how that happened. Because it’s Deion sticking the knife in the Florida State Seminoles to get that guy away.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, locked in is a good way to say it. I would more or less say… I don’t know what word could I use? And, look, I know people are going to make the comment, “Well, the NIO stuff is legal.” Well, yeah, but let’s stop acting like the local tire company said, “Hey, Travis Walker, whatever the kid’s name is, why don’t you come to Jackson and play?” No. Deion Sanders probably did what we had to do to get the kid there. Look, good for him. I don’t understand it, frankly. Look, I know these teams. I know these… Let’s just say the bottom hundred in college football, or sorry, college basketball. College football, let’s just say. But going to play at South Dakota, all due respect, you just don’t get the same competition. You don’t get the same facilities. I’m all for going to play where you want to play. But it really doesn’t matter. The kid’s going to be there for a short amount of time and as little he’s got to play… And look, if you’re a corner, I guess who would you rather play for? Deion Sanders was quite the player. So, look, go make money. Good for the kid. At least the mafia who run NCA is not going to get the money. So, good for him.
T.J. Rives:
If you aspire to be in the NFL, it’s not bad to be with coach prime, as he likes to call himself. He first person calls himself, coach prime, as a matter of fact. Adrian watching says, “Thoughts on UNC Greensboro and UMBC, Maryland Baltimore County. We talked about UMBC earlier this week. We also talked about them last week in their matchup with Georgetown. Any thoughts from either one of you guys on this one for tonight?
Ian Cameron:
I actually have a small bet, not official play, I’m on the Greensboro side, better defensive team. I like the hiring of Mike Jones for Greensboro. Did a good job at Radford the last several years there. And, look, they’re going to slow it down. They’re going to frustrate UMBC. I’ve taken UMBC a couple times, including against Georgetown. They’re a horrible defensive team. They really are. And, look, Greensboro, I think is going to frustrate them. This is another one of those games where it’s a pace war. Greensboro slow down. UMBC wants to go fast. And I think the better team dictates pace. That’s what I always say in these games. And I think that’s Greensboro. So, I like the points here with the road underdog.
Jeff Nadu:
I will say great stat from Jordan Majeski, good follow on Twitter. He put out a stat today. It was pretty incredible. Over the last two games at home for UMBC against division one opponents. They’re 28 for 52 from three. That’s pretty incredible.
Ian Cameron:
Probably unsustainable.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. That’s over 50%. And you’re right it is unsustainable. However, they’ve been very good from three all year. They’re a good offense. I had their over, what was it? A couple days ago? This is a total pace game. A lot of pace games tonight. You have one team who wants to go fast. The other team wants to go shockingly slow. Again, I’ll continue to say this. This is one of the worst cards I’ve ever seen in college basketball, ever. It’s horrific.
T.J. Rives:
So, yeah. It’s a light night for sure. Not a lot of games. Stanford, by the way, playing Dartmouth out in the west, out at Maples Pavilion later tonight. One of the Western teams of note. That’s in action, the seating. Okay. So, I have one on the Q&A. You guys have talked about this before, but for the audience watching us live here on Thursday, take us through the process. You began looking last night and realizing there’s not a lot here for a Thursday card. Did you go to over totals immediately? Were you looking at road underdogs or something like that? What did you gravitate to? Big man, you go first and then Ian. What do you gravitate to when there’s not a lot to play?
Jeff Nadu:
I gravitate, and I that’s exactly what I did here. Look, at the end of the day there’s one thing we can expect tonight, right? Duke is likely going to get to 80 points. Okay? They’re a top level team. They’re a top 10 team. They’re probably a top five team. They’re at home. They have the elite talent advantage. And if they come in tonight and, let’s say laying 22 points, when 89, 70, I’m not going to be mad that I didn’t cover. Okay?
Jeff Nadu:
I will not, though, look at a card like this and say, “You know what? I have to bet.” Like you mentioned Dartmouth playing…
T.J. Rives:
Stanford.
Jeff Nadu:
Stanford.
T.J. Rives:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
How do you even bet that game? You have a team from New Hampshire going all the way out to California. There’s so much going on. There’s these pace battles. You’ve got Chicago State against IUPUI. The sad thing is this game is on at seven o’clock and there’ll be people that will bet this. There’s no advantage. There’s no discrepancy. It’s just, “I want to bet something and I’m going to bet it.” I always in these kind of cards just gravitate and hopefully find a good basketball team. So, whether it’s Duke or even like a Drake. I don’t look at those two bets and say like, “If they don’t come in, I’m not going to be mad about it. At least I went with the teams that I can trust.” Duke will likely have a shot to cover tonight. I think they’d do it. That’s really all I have to say on this.
Ian Cameron:
I’ll give you an opinion. Someone asked, I see Chicago state IUPUI. I would only take Chicago State. And here’s why. I don’t want nothing to do with the game, but I would only take Chicago State. When a team is historically bad like Chicago state was last year. Everybody and his brother knew how bad a point spread team they were. It was just, “You bet against Chicago State every game, you cash a ticket.” But look at this year now all of a sudden, seven and three ATS the last 10 games. Because they’ve been so bad the last year, the power ratings dropped like a stone for Chicago State. And now this season there’s actually been some value to bet on them here. Now, a lot of these games, they’ve been double digit dogs this year, 20, 21 and a half, 14 and a half, 10 and a half.
Ian Cameron:
They’re only getting three in this game, but IUPUI, the Jaguars are brutal offensively. Brutal. They’re not even averaging 50 points per game. They’re shooting 25% from three point range, 37% from the field. In theory, this is a manageable matchup for Chicago state. They’re in a price range now where they’ve all almost got to win the game, which I don’t necessarily sure I’m trusting them. But I would certainly prefer Chicago State and their point spread success than this disastrous IUPUI team laying points when they’re only win this year during this stretch… What’s their all [crosstalk 00:33:33].
Jeff Nadu:
They actually played the basketball itself, Spalding, and won. Weirdly enough. But that’s the only game they’re able to win. Guys. I want to just talk about this for a second, because we have a second. I’ve actually mentioned, I think this could be the worst offensive team I’ve ever seen in college basketball. Like truly. Keep in mind they’ve played nine games. Haven’t into 60 in any of the games that they played against a division one opponent. They’ve only got more than 50 twice in nine games. Think about that.
T.J. Rives:
Yup. And the shot clock and three point shot era. Not good.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. They played. And they played that Spalding, whatever that is. And they won 61, 41. It was like watching an eighth grade girls basketball game. Those kids could have scored more. You could have watched a fourth grade team. They could have scored more than 61. Yeah. This is the worst offensive team I’ve I’ve probably ever seen. Really. [Crosstalk 00:34:41].
Ian Cameron:
So, I’m not betting this game. I want no part of it. But it would be Chicago State and a heartbeat for me before IUPUI.
T.J. Rives:
They are known as ooey-pooey as the negative nickname, and they have been ooey and pooey offensively, at least for a lot of this year. I don’t know how we segue from that to our best bets. But we’re about to do that right now. Let’s lock in what we do have on the slate here for tonight for both Ian Cameron and for Jeff Nadu. You see Jeff does have a point spread play with the Duke Blue Devils. And Ian is on two overs in the two games with Charleston and Stetson, as well as UTA, Texas Arlington, and Oral Roberts. It’ll be fun to keep track of what Max Abmas is doing. And maybe is this a night where he goes off [inaudible 00:35:23] and bombs in a bunch of threes and gets to 40, gets to 45 points, maybe more in a 40 point game. We will find out for later on tonight.
T.J. Rives:
That will pretty much do it here today for a Thursday edition. Anything else, guys? Here to this point, I know we talked a little bit about the action last night, et cetera. A little betting theories that you guys have and at least handicapping strategies that you guys have. Anything else in closing for a Thursday?
Ian Cameron:
One last thing, guys. It’s a horrible card, light card tonight. But I’ll tell you what the prospects of St. Bonaventure versus Virginia Tech, Richmond versus NC State, Villanova versus Creighton, a decent Furman Mississippi State matchup for Friday, makes that card look a whole lot better than this stink bomb of a card, I’ll tell you that right now.
T.J. Rives:
That’s a tease for the Friday show. Big man, anything else? Big man on campus?
Jeff Nadu:
No. I continue to just look forward. A lot of cool things come up, you got bowl games. Christmas will be here soon. And, as Ian mentioned, better cards tomorrow, for sure. More tactical matchups, not this crap that we have here today. So, yeah. Take the night off, go out, take your girl out, or go take your kids to a movie or so something.
T.J. Rives:
Some holiday shopping, some Christmas shopping, do something with the kids. I would agree on that. These guys are on Santa’s nice list for now, but could still be on the naughty list depending. We like them for their handicapping of the college hoops. Thank you, Ian cameron. Thank you, Jeff Nadu.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
Ian Cameron:
Good luck everybody.
T.J. Rives:
All right. And we wish all of you luck and thank you for being with us on the BetUS Thursday college basketball show.
