TJ Rives:
And part of what you just made reference to, the Center for Disease Control, the CDC, the worldwide organization says that the amount of quarantine time, etc, is now being lessened. If you vaccinate, it’ll be lessened now to five days, that, that might help.
But to that point, Kyle Hunter, John Calipari made this proclamation earlier today that his entire team has gotten the booster shot and is fully vaccinated. He says, “We, Kentucky, we’re not testing anymore right now. If they’re not symptomatic, we’re not testing them.” That’s a very strong voice.
Jeff Nadu:
They shouldn’t be anyway.
TJ Rives:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
They shouldn’t have been doing that ever.
TJ Rives:
But my point, Kyle to you, strong voice saying that and maybe other strong voices will join in to help bring some sanity to this. What do you think, Kyle?
Kyle Hunter:
I would think some other voices will join in that. Now I think the question will be from conference to conference, how different will things be? I would expect an Ivy League or something like that to be different than the SCC. So we could see a lot more games canceled depending on one conference to the other.
Guys, I will say that just a cautionary note, it is really hard to handicap these games right now because you don’t want to do it too early because the game might get canceled. Second, there’s always these last minute changes of Bowl season the same way College Football. I hate that Bowl season’s been impacted so much certainly.
Kyle Hunter:
But my volume’s been a bit lower here than it would normally be, and this is the main reason. I don’t like the unknown. Right now there’s too much unknown. I wish just we knew exactly how things were going to go as far as rules and guidance and what games would be impacted, which games won’t. Obviously, there’s going to be some unknown, but I’m hoping that next time we meet up against next week when I’m on here that things have calmed down a little bit. We’ll see.
Jeff Nadu:
One thing that he says that’s very well said, the uniformity, as usual, is not there. What is the NCAA’s purpose here? Why are they not setting guidance that everyone follows the same guidance? It’s almost a similar thought of like with 50 states how every state has different rule. Like how do you ever expect to get a hand on any of this if there’s no guidance from the top? That’s the problem here.
TJ Rives:
I think that’s a great point.
Jeff Nadu:
The NCAA should have a mandate that this is how it’s going to be and everyone does it. They are the governing body of college sports, aren’t they? They need to act like it and stop piecemealing it where every… the CAA has a rule and then the SCE has a rule. It has to be uniform across the board, and until that is done, as Kyle said, it will continue to be a minefield.
You know who gets screwed most, us, the gamblers, the people that put their time in every day and sit here and have to navigate this nonsense. This is the problem. What it also does is it gives a bad product out. How many games have we seen like last night’s NFL game? Nobody wants to see that, nobody.
TJ Rives:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
It’s not good.
TJ Rives:
What you’re referencing, for those that did not see it, is the New Orleans Saints had to suit up some guys that were almost practically off the street. Guys that had only come there that day, Monday. Had not even gotten into a playbook or anything. They’re trying to get equipment for them or whatever because of numerous COVID positives in the NFL situation.
I think we all agree that the NCAA has a daunting task across all sports, but by the same token, to the exact point that you just said Jeff, and I promise we’re getting to the games that we have and the picks in a moment.
TJ Rives:
Their purpose is to provide guidance, to provide the standard, to provide the governance of this is how we’re going to do what we’re doing. To lead on this and tell the different conferences if you have fully vaccinated players and you don’t have symptoms, you don’t have to test. Let’s move on, let’s play until there are players with symptoms, and then it would crop up.
Somebody aptly put this on social media in the sports media that I follow and they’re right, which is sports is still operating under the early 2020 guidelines or the mid 2020 guidelines. It’s a year and a half later, we evolve.
Jeff Nadu:
It makes no sense at all.
TJ Rives:
We change. We got to figure it out. That’s at least what we’re trying to do at the College Basketball Show.
Jeff Nadu:
TJ, go look at the teams like the Giants, the Washington Football team, teams that got pummeled by coronavirus. Go look at their scores and go look at the quality of game those teams put out.
Nobody wants to see Jake Fromm, nobody wants to see these people, these hacks that shouldn’t be in the NFL as quarterback. They have to be because of this, and there just needs to be uniformity. Hopefully, College Basketball, as you said, the big voices are starting to speak out and hopefully everyone will start speaking out and just make this easy.
TJ Rives:
I can tell you at the lower level, and we’ll get to the slate here in just a second, at the lower level in the much smaller conferences, the Ohio Valley Conference, just to name one of the big west, they are rooting on the John Caliparis, the Tom Izzos, the Bill Selfs.
Those are the guys that can basically make the most impact for everybody. 300 programs strong. If you’re in the Southland Conference and your coaches are making noise, it is not the same thing as Jay Wright at Villanova or it’s not the same thing as Mike Krzyzewski at Duke with the pulpit that they have. Let’s see what happens there.
TJ Rives:
All right, all of that being said, let’s get into it. Let’s start first with our overall record. We should point out here, the Big Man on Campus has done well. You have now cracked across the 500 mark, including late last week before Christmas. Again, of our four handicappers, Ian Cameron is the only one that remains below 500.
He’ll be on here later in the week. Maybe was ready to take a two-handed wing at Ian for bringing the whole record down here at this point. Kyle Hunter, who’s on with us, is also above 500 so we hope to continue that here today on the program.
Jeff Nadu:
Can I say?
TJ Rives:
Yeah, go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
Can I say something real quick? I hate to return to this again, but this Ben Sports guy back in the chat and he’s talking about how I was completely wrong. I don’t know if he watched the second half of the Denver-St. Thomas game, but I don’t know what he’s talking about. It’s odd. Did anyone watch that game?
TJ Rives:
So to recap, [crosstalk 00:09:35]-
Jeff Nadu:
What is this guy talking about?
TJ Rives:
We love the interaction of the viewers, we had a viewer who was swinging on you saying, “What are you talking about with altitude for a program like Denver or a program like New Mexico, UTEP, Wyoming?” That it is a factor. It helps the home team, this guy disagreed. Then you’re pointing out that even though St. Thomas, right? Do I have that right? Was winning the game, they faltered badly in the second half when the altitude got-
Jeff Nadu:
They got destroyed in the second half.
TJ Rives:
Which is what your point was.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. What is this? Listen, have some commonsense, guys. Come on. Let’s get to some games. Let’s do it.
TJ Rives:
Let’s do. Let’s get to the slate. Let’s see what we have and let’s get to some games and some predicting here and keep the live chat comments coming. Because we’ll get to the Q&A as well. First up on the docket is a game that is happening shortly. We think, disclaimer again, we believe that all of these games are coming off on Tuesday and this one is scheduled for 2:00 Eastern Time right after we’re done at 1:00 Eastern Time, and that is Texas Tech laying a lot of points here. Laying 29 and a half with Alabama State, the number at 135 and a half. The Big Man on Campus goes right away to a Tuesday afternoon special. What drew you to this and why, sir?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, so this obviously is an interesting spot because this is the last non-conference game for Texas Tech. I’d expect off of Christmas, I’d expect them to want to get this game out of the way early. I’ve been pretty happy with Texas Tech in the first half this year. This team has been one of the better first half teams in the country.
They’re actually top 10 in first half scoring in America. They’re hosting a team in Alabama State that as I talked about, and I had a little hard luck with them last week. I played that team, the first half against I think it was maybe somebody. It was one of these first chance I’ve had, and Alabama State I think ended up covering by like a half a point or a point. But I look at Texas Tech here and I just think they get the upper hand.
Jeff Nadu:
You go back to like a step up game that Alabama State had against Dayton, they had two points over the first 10 minutes of the game. Got absolutely run out by Iowa, got run out by Vandy. This team has struggled in the first half, especially, against teams that are significantly better than they are. I’ve talked about this before, with the tempo that Alabama State play at, they are coached by Mo Williams, former Cavalier, played with LeBron James.
They play fast, and what that leads to when you have teams like Texas Tech, they punish them defensively. It’s like a layup college basketball lines really, and that’s concerning against Texas Tech because they’re going to admonish you. They’re not going to run generally, but against a team like Alabama State, I’d urge be on the front foot, this team’s going to let you do whatever you want offensively.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind, I think Texas Tech extends possessions with offensive rebounds. They’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That has a lot to do with Santos-Silva and Bryson Williams. These guys rebound the basketball to high rate. I expect them to really jump on Alabama State early here, be up 45-25, 45-22, something like that, if they have.
I think they really flex their muscles earlier, put this one away quickly. If you look at the game the other night for Alabama State against Texas, I think if you’re Texas Tech, you need to keep your eye and say, “Let’s not come out here slow. Let’s come out here and really pound a bad opponent in our last non-conference game is we head into the New Year and take care of business here.” Because Texas didn’t fare well. This team can surprise, put the foot on the gas early. I think they’re up big. I’ll lay the 16 and a half in the first half of Texas Tech.
TJ Rives:
It is interesting for the Red Raiders. They have a recent loss to Gonzaga. They beat Eastern Washington after that. They’ve had a little time off and their game with Oklahoma State, here we go again, that was to have been a big 12 opener. I believe that’s the case. I’m looking at their schedule. That game’s already postponed for this weekend because of Oklahoma State.
So they know they’re not playing this weekend. Kyle Hunter, we go to you for a thought on this. Might Texas Tech empty the bench sum especially if they’re winning big here in this game? That’s another thing to look at when you’re looking at this game. What are your thoughts?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, as Jeff was talking, I was looking this up because I remember Texas Tech being a good first half team here so far this year. In their last seven games, they’re six and one against the spread in the first half. They’ve been a good covering team against the spread. Alabama State are really a bad team. I did want to say too, the graphics team, good job with the Hornets. I like the Alabama State Hornet there. That was pretty sweet Alabama State’s just a bad team. They play extremely fast, as Jeff said, and I’ve never understood.
Kyle Hunter:
I’ve said this before, when you’re really that bad, why do you want to play as fast as possible? Because you’re just going to lose by more. They’re 350th in offensive efficiency, but they want to play faster than anybody. That’s fine, you just want to lose by more points. Go ahead. They were down 15 and a half against Vandy, down 13 and a half against Missouri State, down 27 and a half against Iowa.
They lost by 39 full game to Dayton. Texas Tech’s been beating inferior opponents pretty badly and up 23 and a half against Omaha of 19 and a half against Lamar of 23 and a half last game against a pretty good Eastern Washington team.
Kyle Hunter:
We know Eastern Washington is light years better than Alabama State. My thought in this game is I wouldn’t have really liked a full game because I’d be afraid that they’d lay off a bit in the second half. First half I like better here, -16 and a half on the first half. I think Texas Tech crushing opponents on the boards, their fourth in offensive rebounding.
Alabama State on defensive rebound, 346. They’re also 10th worst in the nation as Alabama State in turn over percentage. We get this team that wants to play extremely fast and throw the ball away all the time. That’s a team that I’d want to go against in the first half, so I agree with this play. I like it.
TJ Rives:
Okay, we’ll lock it in officially now for Jeff Nadu, he’s on the first half line for Texas Tech and get there quickly. Because, again, this is a 2:00 Eastern Time, 1:00 Central game. Kyle and I were saying off the show, Big Man, before you just joined us, I don’t know what the reason is that they’re playing in a mid Tuesday afternoon in Lubbock, Texas.
Travel, whatever it is, just to make sure they get the game in, but that’s exactly what’s going on. Again, if you’re seeing us live in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour for the game that Jeff is on and playing, they’re playing it coming been about 45 minutes at 1:00 Central Time.
TJ Rives:
And Jeff again is on the first half line with the Texas Tech, Red Raiders. We continue, let’s go to a game in the ACC. Again, this is a conference that has had some games postponed already but it looks like it is going to be the Pitt Panthers Tuesday night with Notre Dame. Notre Dame comes in lane four with the total at 127. We go to Kyle Hunter for what he likes about this matchup on the Tuesday after Christmas here coming back into ACC play.
Kyle Hunter:
So Pitt has a way of making games extremely ugly. The Panthers have seen eight of their last 10 games finish at 122 points or less, and you guys know that’s pretty insane. I mean, 122 points or less in eight out of 10 games. Jeff Capel’s team is somewhat better on defense this year than they were last year. But the offense is so much worse than they were last year.
They were 81st in offensive efficiency last year. They’re 238 so far this year. Also, if you look at Pitt’s numbers, they’re propped up by the second highest free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts in the country. They’re getting to the line all the time.
Kyle Hunter:
If they couldn’t get to the line, they really can’t score. The offense will crumble even more if they can’t get to the line. Notre Dame in the last four season is either first, they’ve either ranked first or second in the last four seasons in free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted on defense. This team is not fouling.
This year they’re about the middle of the pack. But I would imagine they’ll end up toward the top as they have been in recent seasons. I don’t think they’re going to put Pitt on the line very much here in this game, and that’s what Pitt really needs. Pitt is also 38 in offensive rebounding in the country. Notre Dame is 28th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Kyle Hunter:
We’re going to get rid of the two things that Pitt does really well in this game, and let’s get to the line, get offensive rebounds. Those two usually go together, obviously. You get offensive rebounds, you get fouled on those put backs. Notre Dame is 274th in the nation in pace of play. Pitts 334, so very slow tempo in this game. Both defenses have struggled in transition defense but neither offense really plays in transition. 10% or less of possessions in transition for these two offenses, so they don’t play quickly.
Kyle Hunter:
I don’t think we’re going to see transition game here. Both teams are good in half court on defense. Notre Dame weak when it comes to three point defense, but Pitt’s shooting 29% from three point range. I don’t really see many guys on the Pitt roster that look like they would be good shooters even over the long-term. So Pitt has uglied up a lot of these games.
Heck they had a St. John’s and Monmouth games were really low scoring two teams that play extremely fast usually see high scoring games. I’m going to take under 127 here for Notre Dame and Pitt.
TJ Rives:
All right, fair enough. Again, Notre Dame had the loss to Indiana a couple of weekends ago. They have since beaten Western Michigan, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi have been the two wins. Not exactly stellar. Big Man on Campus, thoughts here as Kyle lays out the case for a low scoring game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I guess I definitely understand it. Pitt, as he said, does make games really hard to watch. They’re not fun. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. They’ve gotten a bit healthier. Jamarius Burton came back and has added a little bit to this lineup. But there’s not a ton of talent here. John Hugley is a decent player, Odukale is a good player but the big concern that I have and like I’m not really interested in Notre Dame. Is that like it’s the same old stuff with them, and I don’t know.
There’s two things that are wrong with them right now. They’re not that good offensively. They’re not as good as years past that they’ve been under Mike Bray, who’s a bit of an offensive genius. They haven’t been very good this year.
Jeff Nadu:
This is not one of the better four year groups that Bray’s had. You also look at defensively, they sold this bill of goods before the season that just Anthony Solomon was coming back, this defensive genius. Look, quite frankly, they haven’t been very good. The good thing here for them is no pick can’t make shots. They’re pretty dreadful at every end offensively. Yeah, I don’t think there’s a ton of offense here.
I think it’s a rough game to be quite frank. Not going to be much pace. It’s going to be an ugly one. I think uglying up the game is what you want in an under. I think it’s probably first 65 wins. Think it’s like a 65, 58 type of game. I’ll lean under as well. I’m not playing it, but I get the point.
TJ Rives:
Okay, so officially for Kyle Hunter on this Tuesday, we lock it in for the ACC showdown, Pitt and Notre Dame. God willing, we got the fingers crossed here that we do get that game to come off tonight with all the different COVID pauses. For example, Duke has already gone on COVID pause and they’re not going to play their first two ACC games coming this weekend, this weekend. Let’s hope that this one gets going and gets played. Let’s go to game number three on our card for a Tuesday in between Christmas and New Year’s.
TJ Rives:
We go to the defending national champions, the Baylor Bears against Northwestern State. Shout out to my man, Patrick Netherton, longtime media friend who’s the voice of the Northwestern State Demons out of Natchitoches, Louisiana. Northwestern State, boy, they’re the foe and they are a huge, huge underdog at Baylor, as you would figure. The number at 143 for the over under. Big Man on Campus, we’re going to you for an official play. What say you?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, you mentioned your friend. Listen, not an easy job calling these kind of games when you’re a Northwestern State backer or fan. This has been ugly watching this team. I think you can make a strong case. This is a bottom five team in America defensively. They are absolutely horrific. Again, like the concerning thing is like I understand you give up 99 to Houston or 89 to LSU, but what was the excuse against UL Monroe? They scored 96, SMU 95, Tulsa scored 82. Boring Frank Haith scored 82 against you. Texas A&M, one of the worst power five offenses over the last five years of country, scored 80 against this group.
Jeff Nadu:
This is a name your number game if you’re Baylor. I was surprised to see it low 90s the team total, quite frank. I know a lot of people say, “Well, it’s one of the last non-conference games. Baylor will go to the bench.” That’s fine. Baylor has plenty of options.
TJ Rives:
No, okay.
Jeff Nadu:
Baylor has plenty of options that come off the bench to score the basketball. I’m not too worried about that. Keep in mind, they don’t play for a couple of days, so I’m not too worried about that. This offense is too damn good. This offense plays with pace. Northwestern State will let you do whatever you want. They are truly a layup line on defense. Those are the defenses I want to play if I back a Texas Tech or a Baylor. How quickly and how efficiently can I score against you? Oh, I could score quick. Great, perfect. That’s what I want in games like this.
Jeff Nadu:
Baylor is also if you’re looking to maybe go a little different way, maybe a first half team total, a first half, Northwestern State is second worst in America in points allowed in the first half. They’re allowing 43 and a half points a game in the half this year. Just ugly, dreadful stuff. I think Baylor could touch 100, it wouldn’t surprise me tonight. But I’m going to play their team total over 91. I truly think. I thought this game would be more like mid nineties. I think Baylor rolls here.
TJ Rives:
All right, Kyle Hunter, your thoughts here? Scott Drew lost a couple of pieces off the national title team, but they’re still really good. This again is, in Jeff’s vernacular, a name your score type game. Any thoughts, if not an official play?
Kyle Hunter:
Northwestern State, defensively, there’s nothing good to say about them. You know what I mean? Like Jeff said, terrible on defense. They’re 337th in the nation in transition defense and 353rd in half court defense. So they’re really not good at anything defensively. Baylor in transition offense, 22% of their possessions and transitions so this team’s playing really fast. Baylor is eighth in an offensive efficiency and transition possession, so lots of easy, quick buckets. Baylor does go to the hoop early and often. Northwestern State is 353rd at defending the rim, so no shot blockers down low.
Kyle Hunter:
I think Baylor would get a lot of close open looks. The thing that makes me stay a little bit more neutral on the full game is that I wonder if Baylor’s going to let up at some point. I’m going to stay off this game as far as the full game. I think I would like the first half team total over better. I was just looking as you were saying that I like the stat there that Jeff gave as far as Northwestern State defensively in the first halfs. Now bet online has Baylor over 45 in the first half, so I do like that first half team total. You won’t find that everywhere, so check that one out, BetOnline.
Kyle Hunter:
Good number there, I think 45. I’m going to stay neutral on the full game, but I’m going to be rooting for Jeff’s play here on this one. I think Baylor can name their score, it’s just a question of whether they wanted score at the end of the game. It’s possible they score 55 points in the first half and accidentally get to 100. I mean, that’s certainly a possibility here.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind as well, there’s always a variety of bets you can make, especially, with like the team totals and even the total itself. You look at on BetUS, 143 and a half, yeah, there’s a total here on the site.
Let’s conceivably think if we think Baylor’s going to get, let’s just say, they just get the 90 and you didn’t want to play the team total, Northwestern State is not completely inept on offense. I think they can probably get the 60 here. Their point guard, Carvell Teasett, is back healthy. He’s back in the flow of things again. They have a kid down low, Kendal Coleman, pretty good player. He’s had double figures in every game this year.
Jeff Nadu:
I feel like they can probably, in the guts and the garbage of the game over the last seven, eight minutes, probably do enough to get this number over the total. If you figure that Baylor can get the 90, you really only need let’s say 55 to get this game over the number. I think there’s a variety of things you can do here, but I had Baylor at least 95 points here, so I played that.
TJ Rives:
Fair enough, we lock it in officially for the Big Man on Campus. Jeff Nadu does have Baylor’s team total. Again, they have gone over 90, what, three different times already this year. He’s got the team total there 91 with a green light against the Northwestern team.
Jeff Nadu:
Northwestern State has given up 80 or more eight times, 90 or more four times.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, so there you go on that. My man, Patrick Netherton, for all time called the 2006 NCAA Tournament winning shot for Northwestern State to beat Steve Alford in Iowa. He’s got that in the bank. It’s a 15 year old story, but he does have that in the bank. They’ll take a beating tonight against the number one team in the country, unfortunately, in Waco for that game.
One more game. This is not going to be an official play, but we’re interested in Fresno State, the Bulldogs, who we’ve talked about before on this show and the Boise State Broncos as well.
TJ Rives:
This one coming in Boise, again, all things being equal as we do the live show, Tuesday. 1:00 Eastern Time this game’s supposed to come off here out of the Mountain West. And Boise State laying the four and a half, the number at 118 and a half. In particular, Big Man on Campus, you were saying late in the week before Christmas to keep an eye on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
I know you have been. Now they are getting points going to Boise in this game. Any thoughts here? I know you do not have an official play, but what do you think about this?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I thought that was a pretty underrated spot for them against Weber, and they ended up rolling in that game. Weber had no success relate any level. Look, the big thing for them, Fresno, is they’ve had some guys out and stuff but they’ve played well. As far as this game, I didn’t have much on it. I think, at worst, I think I’d take Fresno just with the points.
I think this would be a really tough chess match, probably a real rock fight. Neither one of these teams is particularly high end tempo wise. Neither are very good on offense, and they would really lock it down defensively. This screams to me first to 60 wins. This is going to be a big game played around that 120 mark. You’re not going to have a ton of shot makers.
Jeff Nadu:
Look, when you shut down a team like Weber to 43 points, that’s impressive. If you’re Justin Hutson, the coach at Fresno, who… Look, he’s a Steve Fisher disciple. He was a Brian Dutcher disciple. He was in San Diego State for a while. He was actually an assistant on some of those great San Diego State teams that had Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas and those guys back in the mid early 2010s. Justin, Hutson’s a great coach, and this guy has taken a page out of the Steve Fisher book. Okay, it’s pretty incredible, quite frankly.
They have the same defenses. This is going to be an ugly one, and remember Justin Hutson saw Boise many times when he was at San Diego State. I like the Fresno State team. I think they’re well coached, they have a great defense. I give them the upper hand here. I think this an ugly game, and an ugly games, I’ll gladly take the points.
TJ Rives:
All right, Kyle Hunter, any thoughts? I know no official play for you but this is a 10 and four Fresno or a 10 and three Fresno team, a nine and four Boise State team. Arguably, in terms of the west, this is the best matchup we have on a Tuesday.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I lean to the under in this game but we have 118 and a half, 119. You guys know I’m really an under player, and long term I’ve done really well taking unders. They’re not fun to take, I’d rather have an over and root for points. Especially, at the end of some of these games, it can be maddening to see how they lose at the end of the game.
But I would certainly lean to an under in this game. It’s just there’s got to be a cutoff point as far as where you would play it at. This is a really low total. If it was 122, 123, I would’ve bet the under. It would’ve been one of my plays on the show today. 64% of the bets on Boise, 87% of the money on Boise, I wouldn’t bet a game based on that information.
Kyle Hunter:
It’s just some people like to know that information. I would lean to the under here, like I said, it would’ve been a play for me if it was a bit higher. It is interesting to note that Fresno knocked off Boise at Boise in the last game of the regular season last year. That basically knocked Boise State out of the NCAA tournament picture. Boise State remembers that game.
I know some people would say that’s why you want to lay the points with Boise in a game like this. The only problem I have with something like that is that insinuates that Fresno State doesn’t care about this game. I think usually in College Basketball, both teams are pretty motivated.
Kyle Hunter:
So both teams are 36, top 36 in the country and effective field goal percentage defense. Boise has played a tougher schedule so far this year, so that’s reflected in the line. In a low scoring game with 118 and a half for the total, I don’t like laying four and a half. That’s essentially like laying seven or eight with a normal total. I’m going to lean Fresno State and lean the under in this one.
TJ Rives:
Well, you were saying earlier Big Man that they gave up only 43 points, Fresno State, against Weber State. Then I take into account what you told us earlier that Northwestern State out of Louisiana is giving up 43 points a game in the first half. So at least we found somebody out West that can guard, so that’s a good thing. Yeah, go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
Also, just to piggyback off that. Like when you look at a game and say, “I want to take the under.” Like this is like the prototypical game you want because you have no pace here. You look at how these teams score the basketball, it’s very much half court reliant. They’re not getting out in transition. Neither these teams take a ton to threes at all.
They’re just going to literally get in the half court, take 20, 23 seconds every possession and either make or miss the shot. Contrary to what these numbers say, they’re probably not going to make those shots. This is the exact game you want to play. I, again, I see this game at like 59, 56, 61, 58, something like that.
Jeff Nadu:
Again, Kyle made a good point, if this was like 123, I’d be a little bit more interested. But you’re really towing the line. The value is gone on this game. But as an under better or someone that wants to play an under, this is the game you want. Okay, not a lot of threes are going to be shot. It’s going to be jump shots and settling for half court offense, which in games that you’re betting under as you want.
TJ Rives:
All right, let’s see what they do. The Boise State Broncos do have a win over Washington State in their last game. That was a low scoring game, 58-52 to the point that our handicappers are making here on the Tuesday show. Let’s see what the peeps are saying. In addition to Nadu’s long lost friend, who’s still going on and on about the altitude.
Enough about that guy and giving him attention. Let’s go to a couple of people that have questions about other games. Mark wants to know thoughts on Gonzaga playing North Alabama? We’ve already talked about Alabama State being not very good. North Alabama is playing Gonzaga, Mark Few’s team. Do either one of you have a thought about Gonzaga? There’s no official play here, but what about this?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, so we obviously know plenty about Gonzaga, and one thing that I think Kyle will allude to, and I actually talked about this. I did a Twitter spaces yesterday on College Basketball, and one of the things that I’ve noticed is that Gonzaga’s offense, compared to last year, has taken a hit. They’re not as potent as they’ve been in years past. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the three point shooting just hasn’t been up to par. Now it’s getting better, and look, I’m not going to bet against Gonzaga not figuring out offensively. But, for the record, it’s not been as good this year as in years passed.
Jeff Nadu:
That’s not to say they won’t beat up Northern Alabama. Now, North Alabama is interesting. They haven’t been in division one very long, their coach, Tony Pujol, definitely a defensive caliber coach.
I watched them play Auburn. I’m not sure why, but I did. They’re not bad defensive, I’ll give them that. They do a pretty nice job on that end. Now, look, playing the Alabama A&M’s and the Alabama States and the Mississippi Valleys, they played the Virgin Islands. I guess they played the whole country. I don’t know.
TJ Rives:
You got it. Okay, they played all the islands.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, and look, that time-
TJ Rives:
Did they play on a cruise ship? I just asked sarcastically. Continue on.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, not sure. I think they played it as one of the fitness centers down there. But, yeah, ultimately you look at their upper end competition. Held Auburn to 70, held a good UCF offense to 75. They really dirty up the game like Pittsburgh in a roundabout way, which is what Kyle talked about. They’re actually a pretty decent defensive team.
If I had to play this, I’d actually lean under maybe. Maybe I’d grab the 34 and pray. But, yeah, I don’t expect a higher scoring game. You have to ask yourself, “Can Northern Alabama get to 50?” That’s the conceivable thought. I think they played Gonzaga in 2020 maybe, or one of these years. They didn’t fare real well, so yeah, I would lean… It was 96-51 the first time they played in 2019. It was a long time ago. But, yeah, lean under 144. That’s where I go.
TJ Rives:
Chad Holmgren is the seven foot phenom that they believe is one and done in a lottery pick, if not a top pick in the NBA draft. He’ll be fun to watch and see if he unleashes. Kyle, any fought here on Gonzaga real quick before we move on?
Kyle Hunter:
It’s hard to know what to do in this game. I think betting North Alabama is probably the side that I would take if I had to. But I wouldn’t be excited to bet that. Like Jeff said, that would be something that you’d just be you don’t want to watch it. You don’t even want to track that game.
You just want to check afterwards and see if you won. Jeff, I think maybe even a Gonzaga team total under or something like that might even be worth a look. I will say though, Jeff, I think I do know why you watched Auburn and North Alabama game because that’s where you find out about the value on a team like North Alabama, right?
Jeff Nadu:
True.
Kyle Hunter:
When we look at these really far under the radar games or everybody else is going to be like, “Why are they talking about North Alabama?” The reason we’re talking about North Alabama is because we have watched their games. We have looked for the value all the way under the radar, so I definitely think it makes sense to pay attention that closely to this.
Jeff Nadu:
I think as a gambler, you have to do that. Like at night, I hear a lot of people they’ll talk about, oh, they watched this. Like last night it sucked because I like at night to just go and watch ESPN and pick a random game that I don’t know a ton about the team or I know a little bit, and I want to know more and I just watch the game.
I don’t watch the whole game, but I’ll sit there and watch 10, 15 minutes and I’ll go to another game and watch that. I think you’d have to do that because by the time conference play gets here in a few days and people say to me, “How long does it take you to handicap a card?”
Jeff Nadu:
If you are a real gambler and really doing this every day, you should not need hours on end to look at these cards. Okay, you shouldn’t. This show that we do, I do very little prep because I know all this stuff already. A lot of that is work in the off season, and at night when I’m not doing anything else, I’m not sitting here twiddling my thumbs or whatever, I’m watching other games. I think as a handicapper, you have to always further your craft and you’ll get to know these teams.
Jeff Nadu:
Nothing is degenerate to me. I don’t care who it is. Look, if I could bet on… Like there’s games tonight involving Drake or St. Peter’s or Cal Baptist. Look, if I could bet on Jacksonville State tonight, I would. Because Carver College, and I know for a fact, has lost 45 or so straight games, and many of them have come by 30 or more. I wish we could bet on that stuff.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, right, you can’t.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t care what it is. If I can bet on two dudes on a corner fighting and I have an advantage, I’m betting on it.
TJ Rives:
Edge.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t care what it is. It’s all by the edge to me, and by watching this stuff, you can get that.
TJ Rives:
What you’re pointing out, and this should just ring true to the audience, we now have a large enough sample in November and December where if you’ve seen a team, even in parts, if not whole, seven or eight times, and this is what the guys keep talking about, you know how they play, you know what their pace is. You may not know who all the players are, but you know style of play, what do they like to do. So that immediately comes to mind when you’re looking at a number or a line and you say, “Wait a minute, I think that’s out of whack,” because you know both the teams are involved, but including the obscure teams.
TJ Rives:
We now have had eight, 10 games for most of the teams to begin to figure all this out before conference play goes on. And that’s the case with North Alabama and the game with Gonzaga. Let’s stay out West. One more viewer, Paco, Paco Healy, I think I have that. Right who’s in the live chats-
Jeff Nadu:
He’s a good guy.
TJ Rives:
… says Yale and Saint Mary’s… Nadu apparently knows him. I don’t know if he breaks bread with him or what. Yale and Saint Mary’s tonight playing in Northern California. Saint Mary’s is laying 12 and a half. Kyle Hunter, any thought? Either one of you, any thought? Kyle, you first.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I lean to Saint Mary’s unders. This Saint Mary’s team has been really good defensively. 11th and defensive efficiency, they don’t give offensive rebounds. We know they control the tempos. So Saint Mary’s unders are my lean. Yale, they’ve been disappointing, I would say, but they didn’t play all last year so I don’t think that’s helpful. I would lean St Mary’s and under if I had to bet something in this one.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, and just to say, Paco Healy’s a good guy. He’s been a support of mine for many years. I mean, a good guy, nice guy. Definitely a good sports but a great dude. As far as this game, I couldn’t agree more with Kyle Hunter. I don’t think we talk enough about just the true legend that Randy Bennett is the coach at Saint Mary’s.
I think he is one of the best coach in the country. This guy has, for 20 plus years, been one of the best overall coaches and recruiters you’ll find. Just a gem of a coach. I’m actually working on getting out there to watch them play this year. I’ve always wanted to go out to Saint Mary’s. I just think it’s a terrific university and he’s a smart coach. He’s totally right, Kyle, is on them defensively.
Jeff Nadu:
When you’re talking about Yale, you look at the spot here. Haven’t played in two weeks to go across the country, randomly, to Moraga, California, and then go back by Sunday and play Columbia back in Connecticut and New Haven on Sunday. If you can stop Azar Swain, you will stop Yale. Azar Swain is all Yale has at this point. It’s that simple. They also have, I think, some COVID issues. Some of the players are out or testing issues are just coming back. Yeah, it’s a rough spot and now you got to go out and play Saint Mary’s who’s locked down defensively. I’d look at a Yale team total myself again,
TJ Rives:
Again, Yale lost their last two games, including the Monmouth, as you mentioned, two weeks ago tonight. They were supposed to play Howard last week. That game was postponed and I believe it was for the Howard team COVID issues. So now Yale goes all the way out to Northern California off of two weeks of not playing and Saint Mary’s laying the 12 and a half for that one tonight. Do we have time? I think we do. We’ve got time for one more off the list. Darius wants to know Grambling and Southern Illinois? If either of you, real quick, have a thought on that for tonight, guys? Anything on the radar?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, this is whack, I think a lot of people want to bet against it, I’m sorry, and that’s a good idea. Mississippi Valley State, some of these teams are really bad. There are a couple though that I think are tough, and I think Grambling is one of those teams. They actually are pretty tough every year. Always pretty good defense. Jackson State’s another team that it brings to mind, Texas Southern, all well coached. Wayne Brent, Dante Jackson, Johnny Jones, all really good coaches. Yeah, Southern Illinois, I’m not really running the lay points with, I think Grambling can maybe muddy up the waters here and make it tough.
Jeff Nadu:
They’re going to try to hang in this game defensively and just really through turnovers and things of that nature. I wouldn’t be running to the window to bet on Southern Illinois, not anything special. They don’t play with a lot of pace and it’s hard to win by margin when you’re one of the slowest teams in the country. It also wouldn’t surprise me if this game’s like 65-50. I think it’s a low scoring game [inaudible 00:42:14] here.
Kyle Hunter:
My lean is-
TJ Rives:
Southern Illinois. Kyle is laying 17. Go ahead.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, my lean in this game would be under. 354th and tempo for Southern Illinois. Marcus Domask is good player for Southern Illinois, but they don’t really have much else. Grambling’s defense, much better than their offense. They can have some pretty ugly games. Wouldn’t want to lay the points here. Not excited about Grambling either. I would lean to the under.
TJ Rives:
All right, fair enough on that with the Q&A. Thank you for doing that here during the live show. Again, we are hopeful that all these games get in. It is just day by day now on a bunch of programs that have already postponed that are trying to get back COVID healthy, etc, if that’s the case. Let’s look at the official plays here for our guys one final time.
Again, only three of them, and in Jeff’s case, he’s on a first tough line with Texas Tech. Again, that game begins as we’re doing the live show here at 1:00 Eastern Time. That game begins in about 15 minutes, if you’re going to act on this. At 2:00 Eastern, 1:00 one central in Lubbock.
TJ Rives:
Then he is staying in the lone star state deep in the heart of Texas with Baylor on the team total with Northwestern State of 91. And Kyle is on the under in the ACC matchup, Pitt and Notre Dame, for tonight. Again, a bevy of games have been postponed. Hopefully, some of them can be made up. We hope that all of these are going off tonight. Any final thought here from Kyle Hunter, from Jeff Nadu before we are done for a Tuesday, guys? Anything else?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I don’t want to lead one of the guys here, Larone Ferguson asked about Texas Incarnate Word. Look, Incarnate Word’s been tough. They’ve been a hard team to bet against. Texas, I wouldn’t be running to bet on right now laying big numbers. They seem disinterested and just one to get by. Yeah, I’d avoid that. As far as this, no, I have no other comment. Thanks as always for watching and great job hosting, TJ. We’re back and got another show tomorrow. A big card tomorrow, a lot of games tomorrow.
TJ Rives:
Yes, a lot more gig games tomorrow. Kyle Hunter, anything else here for a Tuesday? Are we good?
Kyle Hunter:
No, you guys are going to have plenty of games to talk about tomorrow. I’ll be doing the College Football Bowl Breakdowns here for BetUS on the CFB channel. So looking forward to tuning in to seeing you guys chat about a big card tomorrow and plenty of games the rest this week.
TJ Rives:
Thank you for the plug on that. A reminder to subscribe here, subscribe on social media to our BetUS channels to all the different sports, whether it’s College Football. You see that one more time on the screen, whether it’s College Basketball, the College Football Bowl games going on, the NFL. We’ve even got the NHL cranking, the NBA cranking, soccer, all of that.
Whatever you would like on the BetUS channels, go and find them. More and more of you are finding us here as you have been. We’re back. We’re back in the groove a little bit here for the middle of this week, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
TJ Rives:
We’ll not be here New Year’s afternoon. The party’s apparently at Nadu’s house, more on that later on. We’ll find out about that. For now, I think we’re good for a Tuesday. Kyle Hunter, thank you. Jeff Nadu, thank you.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
Kyle Hunter:
Thank you.
TJ Rives:
And we thank you for watching the BetUS College Basketball Show for a Tuesday.
