College Basketball Picks, Predictions and Best College Basketball Odds [Dec.30]

TJ Rives:

That has never …

Ian Cameron:

That’s on every day. I defer to him on the show.

Jeff Nadu:

Exactly.

TJ Rives:

That’s exactly right. It’s never stopped the big man from jumping in. It’s not going to stop on the last show of 2021, so always appreciate that. Good to have both of you here. Again, last night, we saw some exciting action all over the place, including Tennessee and Alabama, a game that we talked about yesterday, which was down to the wire and eventually won by the Tide. Tennessee was without a couple of their players as it turned out in that game, a hard fought SEC game. You guys were all over the VMI game with Wofford last night. Congratulations times three. Ian, times two, and the big man on campus with the team total, I believe as well, on that. Just overall, Jeff Nadu, a thought on Wednesday as we head towards the weekend and some of what you saw.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m not going to really get too mad about it just because Hofstra, I’ve made money on them before on this show. I’m not exactly mad that they didn’t come through. They actually lost the game outright. Look, that’s the problem with Hofstra, man. They don’t defend. I mean, William & Mary look like a competent team last night, which isn’t normal for them. But VMI, you mentioned, that was a great one. They really played a typical VMI game 35 threes, they made 13 of them, 37%. You’re going to win a lot of games doing that. They took a really quick lead.

Jeff Nadu:

They scored 25 points in the first 10 minutes and really never looked back. Really nice win for that group. I’m telling you, they’re going to be a real tough team again in that conference. Dan Earl’s got a good little team there. So, yeah, pretty good night all in all. Ian had a pretty good evening. I hit with Oklahoma in college football, so it was very good night. Pretty happy with how it worked out.

TJ Rives:

Yeah, the return of Bob Stoops in that bowl game was a big deal. Ian Cameron, you were also on Wake Forest. You hung in with Louisville. We talked a lot about that game yesterday in the ACC, and Wake did get the cover. You were saying just briefly right before the live show began, Wake maybe should have won that game, Steve Forbes’ team.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, they should have. It’s just bad execution late in the game, unfortunately, cost them. But, no, they were right in that. They had a chance to win that game. When I made the Wake bet, I said they had a great chance to win that game. And that’s what they had, a chance to win. Unfortunately, they couldn’t pull it out in the end. But they do get the point spread cover, which is the important thing. VMI was a great result for Jeff and I. And actually, we both were on Oklahoma as well in that bowl game last night. Five and 0 in bowl games.

Ian Cameron:

I’d like some five and 0’s in this sport moving forward. That would be nice, for sure. But good three and one last night. And I want to talk about something from last night’s results that I mentioned on Twitter. It’s these teams that you’re on paper not going to want to back them at all because of the way they played in non-conference. I’m talking about Central Michigan in particular. This is a team that if you look going to that game against Kent State yesterday, why the hell would you want to back them? They were terrible in non-conference play.

Ian Cameron:

The record was brutal. Everything went wrong for them. But look at their schedule, they played Gonzaga, they played Kentucky, they played Xavier, they played so many good teams in non-conference play. And oftentimes, I like to back those teams. I was on the double digits with them against Kent because they played a tough schedule. The betting markets and odds-makers have completely devalued them because of their record. But they’ve toughened themselves up for conference play.

Ian Cameron:

They have a better puncher’s chance in conference play because they know the opposing teams, they know the opposing coaches, they know the style of play of those teams. And look, I wasn’t expecting Central Michigan to beat Kent State outright yesterday as 16 point odds, but they did. I expected them to be a maybe an undervalued team. And maybe a team like Central Michigan now that they’re in conference play, they took their lumps because of a brutal non-conference schedule. Maybe there’s residual value to bet on this team repeatedly moving forward.

Ian Cameron:

There are examples of these kinds of teams every year in college basketball. They get their asses kicked in non-conference play. And then all of a sudden, conference play arrives and look out, they’re undervalued and they start cashing tickets. Keep your eye on Central Michigan, keep your eye even on William & Mary. I know Hofstra was bad last night, but they took their lumps. And maybe now into conference play, you see the Tribe start to get a little bit better and maybe become undervalued from a point spread standpoint. Just these bad teams in non-conference play, it doesn’t necessarily mean that continues when conference play begins.

TJ Rives:

Fair enough. Good analysis on that. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the records. We got a busy slate here on the Thursday before New Year’s. Here are the records of the handicappers, again, the big man on campus one and one last night. Ian, a nice Wednesday with a three in one mark and creeping back towards 500 or attempting to on the show today. He’s got a lot of plays today. So pretty solid, pretty solid right now from our guys here as we close out 2021. And let’s get to it, gentlemen. Let’s get to the games that we’re going to be interested in.

TJ Rives:

And we’re even going to have some time for Q&A, probably. Let’s start with a game between Florida International in Miami and Old Dominion. FIU is a one point favorite at home, the total at 127 on this one. And Ian Cameron, we’re right back to you for what you think and why on this play.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. I mean, when you look at this matchup here, Florida International, I like what they’ve done in terms of sometimes when things aren’t working, you can’t keep doing the same thing, right? You got to make changes. It’s all about adjustments when things aren’t going well. And for FIU last year, this was a team that played fast, yet they didn’t have the offense and the scores and the shooting to play that way. And they certainly didn’t have the defense to play that way. They were a wretched defensive team, Florida International. Well, this year, they’ve slowed the pace down.

Ian Cameron:

Their defensive numbers have improved significantly so far this year. I’m impressed with what the adjustments they’ve made to their style. It’s not always easy to do that, but it’s been for the better. And this Old Dominion team has been all over the map. They’ve had some decent results and they’ve just had some head scratching performances. They’re only five and eight. They’re two and three straight up on the road. Florida International does have a pretty solid home court, five and O on the year.

Ian Cameron:

And when you look at series history between these two teams, FIU’s three in one against the spread the last four meetings. In fact, you go back to the last seven, five and two against the spread against Old Dominion. So again, now that we’re in the conference play and that’s the one thing about conference play I like, is you can draw back on some reason series history. How do teams match up with one another? Florida Internationals had some offensive success in recent meetings against Old Dominion. Old Dominion has been, in the past, a pretty solid defensive team.

Ian Cameron:

But I think this year, you’ve seen a little bit of a decline there. I think when you look at this team in conference play, I think there’s been better teams for Old Dominion than what they have currently coming into this year. I mean, obviously, I have a lot of respect for the job that Jeff Jones has done with this program in years past, but I don’t think this is one of his better teams. They’re absolutely very, very shaky on offense, 233rd adjusted offensive efficiency here in the country.

Ian Cameron:

And I think Florida International … Look, Florida International, I watched a lot of their last game. You think, Ian, are you crazy? You’re watching Florida International and Jacksonville State the other night? Yeah, I was. Because I saw it on list of games and I got into it. I’m looking to see how … And FIU, I thought, gave a pretty good effort. And I like Jacksonville State. Ray Harper is one of the better coaches in the country. Nobody talks about for that Gamecocks program. And I was impressed with their effort.

Ian Cameron:

And more than anything, I’m impressed with how much better their defense has been. And I think that’s going to be trouble for an Old Dominion team that really has trouble scoring consistently and a team that’s got a good home record. They’ve done well head to head series, history wise, against old Dom, pick and price range. I think all they need to do is win the game and I think they will. So I’m on the Golden Panthers here, FIU.

TJ Rives:

Okay, Jeff Nadu, you heard that from Ian here in this matchup. What about it, if anything? I know you don’t have an official play on. Anything strike you about this matchup?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I like to play. I think if I was going to play it, that’s how I would go. I think he was a little too nice about Jeff Jones. I don’t know why Old Dominion keeps Jeff Jones there. Jeff Jones sucks. This guy’s never had an offense in the top 100. Now, look, I know that’s not easy to do with the commentary safety. But, look, there’s been some really good commentaries. Look at Rick Stansbury at Western, look at UAB, look at Law & Tech. This guy sucks.

TJ Rives:

Middle Tennessee State. Middle Tennessee State …

Jeff Nadu:

And by the way …

TJ Rives:

… great offense in the NCAA tournament.

Jeff Nadu:

… Kermit Davis went to Ole Miss and has now got a big job. Jeff Jones sucks. He’s at one team in the top 125 offensively in his what? 10 years at Old Dominion. Look, if I’m Old Dominion, I’d make a coaching change. I think you can get a young fresh mind. Go to Juan Dixon, Coppin State. Let him continue that lateral move up. He might not be ready for Maryland or something like that, but I think Old Dominion would be a nice spot. I think he could be a good recruiter there, get some good guys from the Hampton Roads, that area, and maybe up into Maryland, Baltimore.

Jeff Nadu:

At any rate, I don’t have much in this game. I do like to pick … I think Florida International has actually been pretty solid this year. I’ve nothing bad about losing to an SEC team, played that game close. Jacksonville State is always a tough game. Ray Harper is a great coach. Then he lost a wild one to Eastern Michigan. All in all, they’ve taken care of business for the most part. I like this team. I think they’re really solid defensively. Don’t let that 92-88 game got out of pocket. Outside of that, this team has been lethal defensively. I like this spot. I think the numbers a little short, to be quite honest.

TJ Rives:

Okay. And the official play again is Ian Cameron’s in game number one, and that is with the FIU Panthers down in Miami and he is laying the point for that game tonight. Let’s quickly move to game number two. Speaking of the Maryland Terrapins that Jeff just referenced, they are playing Brown out of the Ivy League just before New Year’s Day, in the New Year’s weekend. They are laying 12.5, the over under at 134. Ian Cameron, back to you for an official play on this one with Maryland. They’ve had some good, some bad early on in the year. What do you like for a play here?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, it’s one of those rare situations where we’ve seen a team undergo a coaching change and the interim coach replacing the old head coach might actually be worse than the guy that left. That’s what we’ve got here with Maryland here when you look at it. I mean, obviously, Jeff will be the first one to bang on that drum of Mark Turgeon being one of the most overrated coaches in college basketball the last few years, but his interim replacement is the Danny Manning. And Steve Forbes is still trying to resurrect Wake Forest from the ditch that Danny Manning put it in.

Ian Cameron:

And that’s the issue right here with him taking over. And look, Maryland’s got just a ton of issues right now. And I’ve been betting against this team repeatedly. Look, it was close. Maryland pulled away late, but I hung on with 22.5 points in my pocket with Lehigh the other night against this Maryland team. Ugly pick, but I’m fading this team again. Now Brown, when you look at them and you could say, hold on now, they have had trouble stepping up in class, and they have. They got crushed by Creighton. We saw the other night against Syracuse, they get destroyed, 93 to 62.

Ian Cameron:

It’s obviously a team that defensively, there’s some holes. But is Maryland good enough offensively to exploit those holes? And especially when you consider the injury to Fatts Russell that happened the other night against Lehigh, exited that game, knee injury. Danny Manning said there was no sure thing that he was going to play tonight in this game against Brown. And the way Manning and the players were … Eric Ayala on this Maryland team, the way he was talking about Russell is like, my gosh, if he doesn’t play tonight, there’s no shot for this team.

Ian Cameron:

I mean, they made it sound like he’s Michael Jordan. And look, he’s an important player, no doubt to this Maryland team. He’s one of the few guys offensively that can make it go for the Maryland Terrapins. And if he doesn’t play tonight, that’s going to put a lot of stress on them to create shots and get some offense going here, even against a Brown team. That, look. I’m not going to sugarcoat it that they’re a great defensive team, they’re not. But they’re getting 12.5 points here. This is a quickly thrown together game for Maryland, right before big 10 season begins.

Ian Cameron:

And by the way, their first next big 10 game next week after this one is Iowa. It’s a pretty big one for Maryland. This has sleepwalk city written all over it. I think Brown, definitely, is a team that is good enough here and prideful enough. Look, nobody wants to lose to Syracuse by that kind of score. But Syracuse ain’t Maryland. Syracuse is a lot better than this Maryland team right now. I’m going to take the double digits. I’ve been fading Maryland repeatedly on this show, on days I’ve not been on this show. When Maryland’s played, I’ve been fading them. I’m not getting off the train yet. What can Brown do for me? Hopefully put money in my pocket and yours tonight.

TJ Rives:

Listen to Ian cracking off the one-liners. He’s looking for a sponsorship from UPS. I suspect if you get one, we’ll see a UPS sticker like the NASCAR guys on you. Jeff Nadu, this is more of a play as Ian keeps saying against Maryland here. What do you think? I know you don’t have an official play on it, but what do you think?

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, let me relate something to Ian Cameron for a second. When we talk about handicappers and people that have been around a long time, you can say what you want about me. You like me, you don’t like me, I don’t give a hell. But you know what? I’ve been around here a long time. I’ve been doing this stuff, so is Ian Cameron. And the reason for that is the one-liners. That’s how I know you don’t know him too well, but you’re getting to know him. He’s big on that one-liner stuff. He’s had some funny quirks over the years. I’ve always think …

Ian Cameron:

That’s spare balls too with the one-liners, let’s …

Jeff Nadu:

I’ve always said though, and I’ve met Ian Cameron in person. He reminds me of a 75-year-old guy in a 30-year-old body. He is very quirky. This is a guy that drinks warm milk before he goes to sleep likely, close the eye …

TJ Rives:

Is this like a backhanded compliment at Cameron now …

Ian Cameron:

Now that’s [crosstalk 00:15:02]. That is …

Jeff Nadu:

It is.

TJ Rives:

… but bono is now taking a swipe at him?

Jeff Nadu:

It is.

TJ Rives:

But 75-year-old guy and a 30-year-old body, I don’t know what to make it up.

Jeff Nadu:

No, he launched it though. He goes to eye appointments, which no one goes to eye appointments unless you’re old. He’s a classy guy. I like him. He’s funny. He’s quirky. He’s got the old guy with the one-liners. But that being said, what can Brown do for you? I think they’re going to cash a ticket tonight. He is dead right with this. This is a sleepwalk city spot. As for a team that has really no enticement to win, look, you don’t want to lose, and I don’t think they’re going to lose here. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a close game late.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t foresee any reason Fatts Russell plays here, especially with conference play looming not next week, but Monday at Iowa. You have a coach, a lame duck coach who ain’t going to be there very long. I think the morale around Maryland just is not where you want it to be, especially hearing Ayala’s comments. And let’s remember, this is very interesting. This has started 2019, Maryland, 19 and 25 against the spread laying points. This season, one in six lane points in seven games. They don’t cover numbers.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, I’m not going to tell you they haven’t had a tough schedule. There’s not a lot of layups on this schedule, but you had trouble against Quinnipiac, had trouble against GW, had trouble against Lehigh, as Ian talked about. Brown didn’t do much right, neither does Maryland for that matter. And without Russell, I would definitely be on Brown here. Did they cover? I don’t know, but I think they will.

TJ Rives:

The official play is for Bobano, Ian Cameron, and it is Brown and he is taking the points against the Maryland Terrapins in this Thursday night matchup, taking a rich 12.5 on the road with Brown. Game number three as we progress on the Thursday slate is an Atlantic 10 matchup, that is St. Jo’s and the Richmond Spiders. We have talked about Richmond on several different occasions. They are laying 12 here with St. Jo’s and a conference game, total at 144.5 and we’re right back. He’s there in the greater Philadelphia area, so he’s got insight on St. Jo’s to the big man on campus. Jeff, what is the play here?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I think Ian actually had a pretty eloquent point when he talked about teams that have been down on their luck the last couple of years, maybe they had injuries or maybe they just not wasn’t expected out of them. One thing I know about St. Jo’s is there a lot of excitement around this program. Billy Lange, I think, is the next good coach of Philadelphia. I really do. Look, will he ever be Phil Martelli? Probably not. I mean, Martelli, I think the case, he’s the greatest coach in the history of Philadelphia. It’s that simple.

Jeff Nadu:

But you look at what they have coming down the road, they just signed Lynn Greer, the son of the Temple legend Lynn Greer, date and transfer. He’s coming in next year. You look at this team, six and five. They beat Georgetown, blew out Temple, beat a good Penn team, hung against Monmouth, hung against USC, hung against a good Bradley team at the Missouri Valley. Now you have coming in tonight a team in Richmond who, as we’ve talked about time and time again, is not a good defensive team.

Jeff Nadu:

Doesn’t matter who Chris Mooney gets, they stuck with who he has, and they’re not a good defensive team. They just aren’t. They play at a pace that’s not conceivable to getting a lot of stops. Look, are they handsy with the ball? Yeah. But when I look at St. Jo’s, I actually really like this team. I think they have some really good offensive caliber players. Jordan Hall is one of them. This guy has been terrific recently, had a 30 point outing the other night. And they have a kid, Taylor Funk, 45% from three.

Jeff Nadu:

I actually watched him at Manheim Central High School in Lancaster PA, in high school. Terrific player, good kid, and a great player. 66.5 team total. I’ve been fighting these totals that I think are a little too low against defenses that I know will allow their opponent to score. I think St. Jo’s, there’s a lot to be excited about with this program. They beat Richmond last year in Richmond. I think they go in there and have a formidable effort tonight. I think they can get to 70 here. I think this is a higher scoring game to begin with. I’m going to lean on St Jo’s over 66.5. I think they have a nice effort tonight in their first conference game, lot to be excited about.

TJ Rives:

Okay, so you’ve been successful this weekend. And throughout really the early part of the season here with team totals, Hofstra bit you last night, but that’s been a rarity. Again, the big man on campus going back to a team total. Ian, A10 game here at Richmond. Richmond is nine and four. Any quick thought on this?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I think Jeff’s like in the team total here with over. And official play for me is the full game over, which is 144.5. I think you’ll see points here. Last meeting between these two teams was last year in March, we saw 76-73, that aforementioned St. Jo’s win 149 points in that game. That gets you over this total. And I think you’ll see that here. And look, I think because you’ve had some unders in some of these games, you’ve got some value now with the total here to go over. Because look, the totals, the last three Richmond St Jo’s totals were in the 150s.

Ian Cameron:

This one’s only in the mid-140s. I think there’s some value there. St. Jo’s is going to play with pace. That’s the way they’ve done it under Billy Lange, 84th in the country in adjusted tempo, 70.6 possessions per game. I think St. Jo’s can score. Jeff talked about the Richmond defense. It hasn’t been great necessarily this year, and it hasn’t been in years past as well. St. Jo’s, I think, can score the basketball. Richmond showed as well because the one thing Richmond’s been really good at this year, three point percentage has been good, 45th in the country.

Ian Cameron:

St. Jo’s is only 294, three-point defense. So, I think Richmond get their points as well in this game and you’re going to get certainly St Jo’s playing above average from a tempo’s perspective. And it’s not like Richmond walks the ball up the court and they can be solid offensively, and they’re certainly better at that end of the floor than they are at the defensive end. And you factor in, like we’ve seen these teams play high 140s, low 150s with points in recent games. And those totals stayed under. But again, we’re talking 150s. We’re now seeing 144.5 with this total. I think there’s value there. I think we find enough points. I’m on a couple of A10 overs tonight and this is one of them. TJ, it’s muted.

TJ Rives:

My bad, I’m sorry. Both of you guys are playing on this game. Again, they had success with VMI, both playing the game last night. Again, let’s look at it officially. Jeff is on the team, total for St. Jo’s. Meanwhile, Ian is on the overall total on the over 144.5 for this matchup. And again, right before the holiday weekend, there are some teams that are playing either New Year’s Day or on Sunday, the 2nd, in some of these conferences. But for some of them, this is the last game for three or four days that they’re going to play until they get back into conference play next week.

TJ Rives:

We’ll see if that has any effect. Alright, so we continue on the slide here, game number four. We’ll get to your questions and answers coming up. But right now, we’ll talk about Green Bay and Northern Kentucky out of the horizon league with Northern Kentucky laying 8.5 points in this matchup, the total at 128 on a Thursday night in Covington, Kentucky. Okay, Ian Cameron, we’re back to you on your official play for the Norse and the Phoenix in this matchup.

Ian Cameron:

The old movie, Dumb and Dumber, well, this is suck and suckier, these two teams here, Green Bay and Northern Kentucky here. And I’m going to go with against what I think is suckier. At least considering the fact that they’re laying eight-and-a-half in this game, and that’s Northern Kentucky. And I’ve been banging the drum against this team all year. I’ve faded them quite a bit. I was on Indiana against them the other night earlier this week, land big points against them. Just a horrible team right now.

Ian Cameron:

I don’t know what Darrin Horn’s doing, but this program has had a dreadful start. And look, Green Bay’s every bit as bad. I’m not going to say that they’re much better at all. In fact, they’re not. But Green Bay is the team getting eight-and-a-half. And Green Bay is not the team that’s played two Horizon League games already, Northern Kentucky, and they’ve lost both by double digits. And now all of a sudden, we’re going to lay eight-and-a-half with Northern Kentucky. No. Green Bay is a better free throw shooting team.

Ian Cameron:

And look, in a game like this, that’s the one thing Green Bay’s done well. I mean, they’ve not been particularly good at either end of the basketball court, the Phoenix, and they’re every bit as bad. But the one thing they are is a decent free throw shooting team. And that could mean all the difference in the world in a game of this magnitude. This is another one of those teams I’ve picked on them a lot this year, Northern Kentucky. I bet against them quite a bit one more often than last going against them.

Ian Cameron:

And I just don’t think right now, they can be laying eight-and-a-half points to hardly any teams in college basketball right now. And look, conference game now, familiarity. Even though things have been every bit as rough for Green Bay, you know the opponent well. It gives you a better chance to compete. It’s an ugly game. It’s two bad teams. There’s no denying that, but I think there’s a better case to be made here for Green Bay getting the point, so I’m on the Phoenix, plus eight-and-a-half.

TJ Rives:

Okay. And again, in the Horizon League, we’ve seen Northern Kentucky be an NCAA tournament team under John Brennan, he left. Darrin Horn had them as the championship team in the 2020 tournament. And then, of course, the shutdown of everything including college basketball happened just a couple of days later. They would have been in the NCAA Tournament again. Now they have fallen off big time. Big man on campus, thought here if no official play on Green Bay and Northern Kentucky?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, one of the conferences I don’t bet much is the Horizon League. I think, as you alluded to, I mean, you’ll have a team that’s like 8 and 15 win the tournament. It’s just a complete mess to what …

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, the seven seat in the Horizon League tournament will win the conference tournament in March.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s what the Yiddish would call mishegoss. It’s what it is. It’s a mishegoss, it’s a mess. As far as this game, I think Ian’s got the right side. Listen, I was told many years ago by the guy that schooled me and taught me how to gamble and is a very smart man, he’s made a lot of money, “Don’t bet money on bad teams. Generally, they’re bad and they will always be bad.” I hear him. I get you want to make a play? And look, he said, success fading NKU. And look, they’ve been the third worst team in the country against the spread. One in eight against the number this year.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t have an issue with it. But again, remember, when you bet money on teams like this, you’re going to look at yourself and say, why did I bet this team? Why? I think they could stay in the game though, because they don’t turn the ball over Green Bay. And they’re good from the free throw line, which is really important. You can stay in games and cover games, especially in a game like this that’s probably not going to have that many possessions. I think it’s a game probably played in the ’60s. So I think Ian’s, just from a numbers standpoint, it makes sense, but it’s not on my card.

TJ Rives:

Fair enough. I have another friend out in Vegas who does a great job, shout out to TC Martin of the TC Martin Show five days a week. He says, I’m going to paraphrase the quote, don’t ask bad teams to do good things with your money. That’s essentially what he’s saying.

Jeff Nadu:

Exactly.

TJ Rives:

But Ian’s got a spot here where he likes it because he just likes the …

Ian Cameron:

And by the way …

TJ Rives:

… line. Go ahead.

Ian Cameron:

261 Northern Kentucky and Green Bay 338 in the country in tempo, so there you go. It’s going to be a very, very slow paced game. And two teams that are sometimes struggling to find the bottom of the well offensively.

Jeff Nadu:

From a numbers standpoint, I mean when you’re looking at the total here, I mean you got 128.5. And I think that’s might be a bit high here. Now look, I don’t know if I’ll bet it, but I would have put it more towards like mid-20s. I think you might be getting two or three points of value here. This is going to be an ugly game. Not a lot of shot-makers in this one. Neither team is very good from the three-point line. I think it’s going to be a lot of half court, long shot clock, hit and miss, that kind of stuff. I like the under a little bit as well.

TJ Rives:

The official play is Ian Cameron’s and he is on the Green Bay Phoenix, not the Green Bay Packers, not Aaron Rodgers and companies. It’s the Green Bay Phoenix on the Horizon League. He is on them and the eight-and-a-half for that matchup. Again, we’ll get to your Q&A questions and comments here towards the end in just a couple of minutes while we speed through what we have with the card and go over the guys plays. Fordham is up next playing LaSalle. Again, we mentioned that Jeff Nadu is in the greater Philadelphia area, in and around the big five teams.

TJ Rives:

This is a three-point spread for LaSalle at home, and the total in this one is 135. Again, Ian Cameron has another official play on this one. What are you liking out of this matchup with LaSalle hosting Fordham?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I mentioned it after the Richmond game. I have a couple of Atlantic 10 overs on the official play card today. And this is another one, a low total. And I got to give Kyle Neptune a lot of credit, the new head coach of Fordham. This is a guy that spent eight years as an assistant with Jay Wright at Villanova. I didn’t think it was possible for Fordham to look like a halfway competent offensive basketball team. But somehow, he has actually gotten them to play that way this year. And actually, they’re better. I’m not saying they’re going to light up the scoreboard at Fordham.

Ian Cameron:

But did you watch Fordham last year, two years ago? I mean, this team just could not do anything offensively. It was embarrassing at times to watch Fordham execute offensive basketball. You want to execute yourself watching them execute offensively. But nevertheless, they’ve improved significantly in that regard. Their offensive efficiency numbers, they’ve gone up, shooting numbers are better, and they play with a little bit more pace as well. I mean, 158 in tempo? I mean, that’s a huge improvement or increase from where it’s been in years past for Fordham.

Ian Cameron:

You look back to the year before that, under Jeff Neubauer, his last year, that dreadful year, they were 2 and 12. They were 338 in the country in tempo. Look at that increase in terms. Now they’re basically middle of the pack, even the upper half of college basketball now in terms of tempo. They’re playing a little bit, they’re not walking the ball up the court. They’re taking good shots the first ones available that they find. And I think they’re going to be able to score some points here against this LaSalle team.

Ian Cameron:

You look at LaSalle, the defensive end of the floor given up 70 points per game, 41% shooting, which isn’t great, or 42% shooting and 71.4 points per game. I think you’re going to see them have some success here Fordham offensively. But LaSalle, the strength up for them a little bit is the offensive end. They’re averaging 70 points per game as well, 41% shooting. And more than anything, you look at LaSalle here the last few games, they played a little bit better. Holy Cross, they put up 84. Fairleigh Dickinson, 81 points in that game. Penn Quakers they put up 76.

Ian Cameron:

Their offensive numbers have been good lately and they’ve trended over three of their last four games. For LaSalle have gone over the total. And when you look at this LaSalle team compared to years past under Ashley Howard, tempo numbers have gone up a little bit this year compared to last year. They’re playing not blazing fast compared to last year, but just a little bit quicker, more possessions per game. And then you look at series history and that’s cemented the deal for me with taking the over here. Last year, January and February 2021, they played twice.

Ian Cameron:

The totals were 122 and 126. That’s where they should have been. Fordham was a horrible offensive team. They played one of the slowest paces in college basketball. That’s where the total should have been, low 120s. And yet in those two games, Fordham versus LaSalle, you had 141 points in the first meeting and you had 144 points in the second meeting. That was last year with Fordham with a brutal offensive team, one of the slowest pace teams in college basketball.

Ian Cameron:

And now this year, you’ve got Fordham which is a much better offensive team play with much greater pace and offensive confidence under Kyle Neptune. I think even with the 135, which is higher than those two totals, you got into the 140s in the two meetings last year and I think you’ll get into the 140s here tonight between these two. For me, Fordham, LaSalle over 135.

TJ Rives:

Very good. Jeff, you’re there in the Philadelphia area, LaSalle home game in this instance. Any thoughts of no official play from you?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Sometimes I like to tell little stories on this show about basketball of yesteryear. And the coach at Fordham, Kyle Neptune, is a New York guy, went to Brooklyn Friends High School. Which in 2003, they won the state title in New York. They beat a couple great teams on the way. For anyone that doesn’t know, early 2000s in New York was an incredible time to be alive. You have Carmelo Anthony, you had Joakim Noah, you had a guy called Lenny Cooke, who many people know of what one point was rated higher than LeBron James.

Jeff Nadu:

Now, sadly, Lenny Cooke’s life was derailed and he didn’t end up being anything. But that year, Kyle Neptune was at Brooklyn Friends and they beat Joakim Noah’s Poly Prep team at a Bay Ridge Brooklyn all the way to win the New York state title that year. And Neptune ended up going into coaching, and he sided along Jay Wright. And as Ian alluded to, he really did a great job so far at Fordham. What an incredible, really, ability to bring in kids that are good players. I mean, Antonio Daye was really good at FIU.

Jeff Nadu:

Chuba Ohams has been at Fordham and it’s really just been great for them, one of the only players they’ve had that’s been good. I like what they’ve done. I think they’re going to be a tough little out this year in the A10 as well. I like to play. I mean, LaSalle is always a bad defensive team. You got to wonder, in this city tonight what’s going to have more fireworks, the streets of this city or this gym in this game? I would have to imagine more excitement is going to be on the streets as opposed to this game. But I think there’s enough fireworks in this one to put it over. I’m just really enamored by Kyle Neptune. What a great coach, was great basketball player in his own right as well.

TJ Rives:

Okay. And the official play again from Ian Cameron is the over total. Again, we’re going a lot of totals throughout the show. That theme is going to keep up too in our final day.

Ian Cameron:

And by the way …

TJ Rives:

Go ahead.

Ian Cameron:

To the uptick in offense and tempo a little bit under Neptune for Fordham. They’re five and two to the over in their last seven games. They’ve been undervalued from an over standpoint all year.

TJ Rives:

Okay. And so, again, these guys are locking in on totals, team totals or on the game totals, et cetera. One more to go. We will swing out west and we have talked about Montana State, and I believe we’ve talked about Weber State as well on previous shows. Now they’re playing each other, Montana State hosting Weber State in laying two-and-a-half, the total at 144. And this one, big man on campus, what are you sizing up here about this matchup out west?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’ve played Weber before. I’ve played Montana State. I’ve been pretty high in Montana State. I got to tell you, this team under Danny Sprinkle has done a really nice job offensively. I sometimes notice that their totals are always priced early 140s, and this a pretty good offense. I think they have a great matchup here tonight at home in front of the Bozeman faithful. It’s not much to do up in Bozeman, so I think there’ll be a nice little crowd there tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at Montana State, they’re anchored by kid Jubrile Belo, a really good player, Xavier Bishop as well, big frontcourt, big kids down low, powerful, have a lot of athleticism. And one of the big issues that Weber has is they have no frontcourt defense. They have no bigs to speak of. They have gotten punished occasionally inside. And I think that’s no different here tonight. You look at last year, both games between these teams were mid-70s tempo. There was a lot of scoring. And I think the path to offense is there for Montana State in this game, I really do.

Jeff Nadu:

I think they have a nice job and a nice game down low. And I think the guards are good enough. You look at the three-point shooting for this group, 45th in the country and three-point percentage. That’s one other issue Weber has. They’re not good in the frontcourt. They’re also not good on the perimeter. This is one of the worst three-point defenses in the country. They’re also dealing with some flu issues. From what I understand, one of their players, Cody Carlson’s been in and out. He’s the only big to speak of. I think that’s concerning in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

I see a path to offense from Montana State here. It’s only 71, their team total. I think both teams probably get into the 70s here. I think it’s a pretty good game. I think the full game over has some validity as well, but I like Montana State’s offense. I’m going to back them here.

TJ Rives:

Alright, fair enough. Ian Cameron, a thought here on Montana State at home in this matchup you have no official play?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. Well, the first thought is two meetings last year, Montana State 74 points in one, 88 points in the other. That’ll get the job done for a team total over certainly in a matchup tonight between these two teams. And they’ve actually trended six and one to the over the last seven head to head meetings between these two teams. And another thing too when you look at Montana State, you’re right, they’ve executed. I’m a big fan of what Sprinkle’s done. They’ve been good at the offensive end of the basketball court.

Ian Cameron:

I like Jeff throwing in the Joe Burrow line there, not much to do in Bozeman, like Joe Burrow said about Cinci just recently. But it should be there, support the local team. I agree. I’ve got no argument with looking at a team total here with Montana State. And again, series history bears it out that they’ve been able to score on Weber.

Jeff Nadu:

And by the way, though, it’s exciting time in Bozeman. I mean, Montana State in the FCS final against North Dakota State, the championship game. They’re buzzing in Bozeman. They’re buzzing for Bob Katz in Bozeman, lot of excitement.

TJ Rives:

It’s a lot of alliteration on a Thursday before New Year’s. Let’s look at it officially from the big man on campus. He is actually on the Montana State team total over 71 for this game tonight with Weber State. Let’s get to the Q&A. There are several that are asking questions in the live chat, final show for us on this New Year’s weekend that is upcoming. Joseph says, great show guys, thoughts on Michigan at UCF coming tonight in Orlando. Jeff Nadu, I know Michigan has had some wins. You’re not a big believer in them. What about this matchup with UCF?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I guess, for me, I’ve always enjoyed their program. I like Beilein. I like Juwan, obviously. But I haven’t been very impressed this year. I think defensively, they’ve been poor. And that’s not something you normally say about Michigan. You look at last year, I mean, they were third in two-point defense, 11th in two-point defense in 2019. This has always been a very good defensive group. Not so much this year. They’ve really had trouble getting stopped. They’ve been more inclined to run, which has been concerning for them. Devante Jones isn’t been good.

Jeff Nadu:

You have to wonder, they’ve been off 12 days. I’d have to imagine Juwan in them worked on it. But this game really is going to come down to two things, and it made it a tough game for me. I’m big on UCF. I’ve talked about that. I think Darius Perry is terrific. I like Johnny Dawkins a lot. There are two concerns, one for both teams. For Michigan, can you get Devante Jones to handle the press that UCF is going to throw at them? UCF presses about 30% of the time, which is a high level. Jones has not been good. You would expect him to be better. He has to be better.

Jeff Nadu:

If they can break the press, I think they’ll score at a high level here. But that’s easier said than done. For UCF scoring, I think there’s a path to offense. I haven’t been impressed by Michigan’s defense, the pick and roll. I think Perry’s a master at breaking that. I had some interest in the over here, to be quite honest. But it really is going to come down to Jones. And so far, I mean, he’s got a turnover rate at 22.5% not good. I don’t really trust these guards for Michigan right now. For me, I lean UCF, I lean over.

TJ Rives:

Ian, a thought here as this is a UCF team that has played a game more recently than Michigan. They lost the Florida State game due to COVID 19. Don’t know if it’s going to be made up, but they’ve played since then. Any thought here on this game real quick?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I leaned that over and I leaned to UCF as well. I think there’s a big game for them. Quad one wins. You’re going to hear that million times between now and March. You need these kind of wins, quad one, quad two. And even though it’s a home game for Central Florida, you got a Michigan coming in. If you want to really pad that resume, you want to show up and get a result in a game like this. Whereas Michigan, if they lose this game, the big 10s coming up for them too. It’s not like it’s a great spot for Michigan, big 10 seasons coming up right after this.

Ian Cameron:

And I like Central Florida. The one concern though with UCF and why it’s not an official, I do have a bet on it, it’s a small one. Step up in class, there’s some question about whether UCF is capable of it. They lost Oklahoma. They got pounded by Auburn. In the two games, they played against the best competition they played this season. That does bother me a little bit. But look, I like their back court, Darin Green Jr., Darius Perry. They got a good player in the low post and CJ Walker as well. And Michigan’s looked out of sorts, out of sync all season long.

Ian Cameron:

You go back all the way to when Arizona pummeled them. This has been a bad loss to Minnesota as well. I mean, Michigan’s just looked totally out of sorts, inconsistent this year, both ends of the floor, point guard plays terrible. They’ve treated the ball like a hand grenade in so many games with turnovers. I’m not ready to lay points with Michigan. I think Central Florida’s worth a small bet at the very least.

Jeff Nadu:

Real quick. I will say this, I think Ian was a little hard on UCF there. Keep in mind, beat Miami, lost Oklahoma by three. Cheikh Diong did a great job against Tanner Groves, which is very difficult. And if you look at the Auburn game, I know they lost by 17. They were 4 for 24 from 3. That’s just a bad shooting night. I mean, Mayhand was 1 for 8, Green was 0 for 6. It’s going to be tough to stay in games like that. But all in all, I’ve been happy with them. And again, Diong, I think, can guard Dickinson. I know it’s not going to be easy. Dickinson is one of the best bigs in the country. But I wish I was getting five or six here, quite honestly. But Michigan, as he said, it is problematic. I mean, they’ve had issues.

Ian Cameron:

They’re problematic. But you know what’s funny? Is Michigan open four-and-a-half, they’re down to three now. It’s not just me thinking Central Florida might be live here. The betting markets seem to agree.

TJ Rives:

Well, and again, this is one of those games where, as you mentioned, Michigan’s going into big 10 play. It’s a much bigger game at home for UCF. We’ll see if that matters. We’ll see if that point matters on this one. Time for one more. Quint wants to know off the live chat, South Dakota State, North Dakota State. We go all over the country with these different games, either of you have a thought on South Dakota State, North Dakota State playing tonight?

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, these games are generally decided and are close. I mean, I’ll be honest, I thought a little bit about the over. I mean, South Dakota State, as I’ve talked about, I mean, always a very good offensive team. Don’t play a lick of defense. And look, North Dakota State has some really good bigs, Rocky Kreuser and Grant Nelson. They’ve been very good down low. I think they can score as well. I lean over, but this is a big time matchup in that area. They’re always closed games. You look at both games last year 68-67. North Dakota State lost.

Jeff Nadu:

And then they came back two nights later and won, 84-82. I would probably just take whoever’s getting points here and pray. On the other game, by the way, they played early in the season. That game was 77-75. So, three games were decided by five points combined. Crazy.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, you bet. And Jeff mentioned Rocky Kreuser are in the 13.8 points per game. Alright, he’s been terrific, as well Grant Nelson. And then you look at South Dakota State, two-point field goal defense, not good. They’re giving up North at 50%. They’re in the 280s in that regard from two-point for field goal percentage. Defending the rim has been an issue for them. I’m with Jeff. I leaned over. The one thing though with South Dakota State, in terms of totals, they’ve been all over the map this year. They’ve had some games that have flown over the total.

Ian Cameron:

And then they’ve had some games where it’s just head scratching and the offense. I remember Missouri State, they didn’t show up offensively in that game just recently. They’ve had some all over the map totals results with a lot of variants. And that’s what kept me off the total from being official play. But I would still lean that way, for sure.

TJ Rives:

I know you were talking about Auburn, Jeff was talking about them before. We need to make mention. They were very impressive against LSU at home last night. The game started like 16 to 1 or 18 to 1 for Auburn and they went on to win. Going to be a very competitive SEC for that reason as we were making reference to Auburn being one of the opponents of one of the teams we were just talking about. With that, I think we’re good on the Q&A for right now. Let’s circle back to the best bets that our guys do have the official plays. You’ll see those. Ian is much busier tonight.

TJ Rives:

In the St. Jo’s game, there are plays for both handicappers. Jeff on the team total with the Hawks and Ian is on the over for the game in that one. Ian also liking Brown as a 12.5 point underdog in their matchup coming up with the Maryland Terrapins tonight as well. We have to make mention of this one more time. We have lost some 20 plus games that were supposed to be played tonight because of COVID-19 concerns, positive tests, contact tracing. Two of those are Pac-12 matchups that was supposed to be UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, and USC.

TJ Rives:

They’ve been postponed for tonight. And there’s no word. I don’t see anything on the games that were allegedly going to be played this weekend as well and whether they are off also. The Pac-12 having issues right now, a bunch of games on pause. Let’s just hope, guys, that as we get through New Year’s weekend here, that a lot of this will subside and that will get back to being able to play the full slate and all the scheduled games. And then there’s going to be a bevy of games to make up and a lot of these are conference games, where you got to figure out if you can make them up, right, gentlemen? Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I don’t know. Trying to understand what they’re going to do. I don’t even … Just give me the games, I’ll look at them. And I hate to be like that. I think you would agree and everyone will agree, it’s tiresome at this point trying to keep track of this nonsense. Look, like I said, if it were for something that was problematic, look, I would say, okay. I mean, and again, you got teams canceling games hours before. It’s just nonsense.

TJ Rives:

Ian, anything else before we are done and before we’re good?

Ian Cameron:

I’m with Jeff. I’m just going to look and say, okay, that games postponed, okay, that games postponed, will it be made up? Will it won’t be made up? All I do is I look at the slate what’s scheduled to be played and I just go forward and cap the card, cap the games. That’s where the focus is for me. We’ll see what they end up doing here. By the way, Eastern Washington I lean and Tarleton Dixie under. Someone asked about those two games. Didn’t matter [crosstalk 00:46:34].

TJ Rives:

Couple people in the chat are asking about those.

Ian Cameron:

There you go.

TJ Rives:

Guys, we have come to the end of the Thursday show. We have come to the end of the calendar year. We want to wish everybody in the audience a Happy New Year, because we will not be here on Friday. There will be some games that are going to be played this weekend. We’ll be back to recap all of it and look ahead to conference play in earnest starting with next week. Here we are. It’s January starting next week, right, gentlemen?

Ian Cameron:

Yup.

Jeff Nadu:

Yup, look forward to it and everyone have a great New Year.

Ian Cameron:

Happy new year, everybody. Thanks for joining us too on BetUS College Basketball show. I mean, as well, everybody that joins us every day, and let’s keep it going. Let’s see if we can get more viewers in the New Year, and we’re looking forward conference players here. We’re looking forward to January right through the end of the NCAA Tournament right here on this show.

TJ Rives:

No doubt. And again, we’re here at 1:00 Eastern Time. We’ll be back Monday starting at 1:00 Eastern Time, typically, Monday through Friday from here on out, 1:00 Eastern Time. A lot of you subscribing, keep doing that. Keep sharing it out on social media. The audience numbers have gone up and gone up and we know it’s going to get bigger once January becomes February, and then the magical month of March. We’re right in position for it. But there’s plenty of money to be made before then, if you’re with us on the BetUS College Basketball show. Jeff Nadu Ian Cameron, Happy New Year. Thank you, gentlemen.

Ian Cameron:

Happy New Year, everyone.

Jeff Nadu:

Thank you. Appreciate it.

TJ Rives:

And we say Happy New Year to our colleagues with BetUS that always make us look good on this show. We’re back again Monday with the next edition in the New Year. We’ll see you next year on the BetUS College Basketball show.