College Basketball Picks, Predictions and Best College Basketball Odds [Feb. 1]

College Basketball Picks, Predictions, and Odds

 

Jeff Nadu:

. These are the boys that you’re here for, as I always like to say. The Big Man on campus is

Jeff Nadu:

and, looky here, back on for the first time this week and all decked out in Cincinnati Bengal garb, it’s Kyle Hunter back aboard on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Now, at least, Big Man, he’s a little more legitimate than Mid Major Matt yesterday sliding in the Bengal pennant behind his head. Kyle actually lives in Ohio and I do see you have the jersey, the whole bit, do you have Super Bowl tickets yet? Can we come with you if you do? What is the latest, my friend? Good to be with you, Kyle.

Kyle Hunter:

Good to be here again, guys. I had low expectations for last week’s game against the Chiefs and it looked like those low expectations were founded there in the first half but come back. I don’t know what the Chiefs were doing on that last drive, it’s a weird drive there for sure. And yeah, I want to give a shout out to Mid Major Matt, I think that was nice to have the Bengals pennant in the background. He sent me a message, he said he used to be a Jeff Blake fan, so that’s-

Jeff Nadu:

Right, right.

Kyle Hunter:

… way back in the day, certainly. But I will say, around Ohio here, it seems like there’s more of these bandwagon Bengals fans than there used to be. I’ve been a Bengals fan since I was born, haven’t had much to cheer about, so excited the Bengals are here. I don’t have my hopes up too high that they’ll win this game but here we are. It’s been an amazing run regardless.

Jeff Nadu:

Nadu, notice I asked, do you have tickets and would you take us with you and I didn’t get an answer to either question. That’s okay, though, Kyle.

Kyle Hunter:

The answer’s no to the tickets.

Jeff Nadu:

But on the second one you would potentially?

Kyle Hunter:

I would have.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t think he would take you even if he had them.

Jeff Nadu:

Thank you. I always appreciate it.

Jeff Nadu:

But hey, listen, I relate to Kyle. His franchise is similar to mine, quite honestly. We’ve had a little success in the Andy Reid era but, up until 2018, I have never seen a Super Bowl. Obviously, we got there with Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens who fell short, just like [inaudible 00:02:52] did in 1988, I think it was, to the Niners. Now you’re back there and you’re playing with house money. I don’t think anybody in Cincinnati thought Joe Burrow would do this quick. Good for them. I know they don’t want to hear, “Hey, if you lose, it is what it is.” But they’re definitely an underdog, we know that. They’re four point dogs and they should be. The Rams put everything into this, they’re hosting this game but what Joe Burrow has been able to do is just surprise anytime we thought that they weren’t going to. So, good for them and good for that city, haven’t had a lot to cheer about in a while.

Jeff Nadu:

And you notice I’m still here, I have posted, I’m smiling even though we’re a few hours post Brady now for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with him announcing his retirement, we persevere on. Enough about the NFL, you’ve got the NFL show-

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, we’ll shed so many tears for you and your family.

Jeff Nadu:

I understand that but we’ll still take the Super Bowl win that the Buccaneers got last season as a matter of fact. All right, so the peeps, though, are here for the college basketball. Very interesting night last night, just real quick, guys. Big Man, we were here yesterday talking about Duke-Notre Dame. Notre Dame scored the fewest points in the first half in the Mike Brey era, 14. Speaking of a football score, two touchdowns, two extra points, that was it. They did not recover. Duke beats them. They had won 10 of 11 games, Duke beats them last night. Baylor won an entertaining game with West Virginia having to come behind to do it. And the Big Man cashes on the Colorado State game that you were talking about yesterday, needed overtime to do it but it still counts. Correct,

Jeff Nadu:

?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, it does. Hunter Maldonado was great, got a little luck at the end, finally, on something with the total. I will say as well, I actually played West Virginia plus the points and I played the money line plus 750. They were up 39-31 at half, I cashed out that little fella and made some money, so I was pretty happy ultimately. The other play I had came up short, I’m not mad at it though. South Dakota States made me a lot of money this year with our team totals. I think we felt like that was maybe a spot, we’re off a big win and a look ahead to South Dakota, maybe they come out. But we’ve talked about this, Kyle and I and even TJ and you and Matt and everybody, sometimes with these team totals, whether it’s over or under, you just have to bet online at every game and you’re going to make money. So, I was ultimately pretty happy with what happened last night and it is what it is.

Jeff Nadu:

If I’m correct, Mid Major Matt had the Vermont team total 73 and a half and it was 73 for the game.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

[inaudible 00:05:28] for they scored 73 points, so it happens that way sometimes. So, we’re looking forward to today and what we’re going to see but, before we get there, let’s take a look at the records right now as we resume things here for a Tuesday. You see the Big Man on Campus up there at the top. Kyle Hunter back with us, nicely placed above 500 and, in fact, Kyle is going to begin things for us with game number one on a Tuesday. Wait no further audience because we have a matching game. We have a MAC game of interest and, Kyle Hunter, we take a look at Bowling Green and Central Michigan with Bowling Green as an eight and a half point road favorite in this Tuesday night matchup, the total at 157. Kyle, get us started. What do you like and why?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, before, we’ve talked about how some of these teams, they get on this trend and there’s momentum for a certain side or a total and you hate to get off of it, if it’s not broke, don’t try to fix it type thing. Bowling Green, the over has been absolute money. The over is 11 and 0 in the last 11 Bowling Green games. The OddsMaker’s having a hard time catching up to Bowling Green’s pace of play and their defense is terrible. So, they’re playing really quickly and then we see a team that struggles badly defending three point shots. And it’s interesting because Central Michigan, they’re really not good at anything other than shooting three pointers, they shoot a bunch of threes, they’ve been able to make a lot of them here in conference. Bowling Green is 307th in three point percentage defense versus the average opponent according to Haslametrics, so it’s a really bad three point defense for Bowling Green.

Kyle Hunter:

Bowling Green on the other side, guys, 77.3% from the free throw line, Central Michigan in the bottom 50 in the country at defending without fouling. I think Bowling Green is going to be on the line a lot in this game. You shoot 77.3% and you get to the line a lot, that’s going to add quite a few points to a total. The Falcons are 64th in the country also on points off breakaway steals. You look at everything about Central Michigan, they love to turn the ball over and, I’ve said before, turnovers can either be good for an over or bad for an over depending on what the defense does with them. Bowling Green is looking to get it out and transition really quickly so we can get some quick steal and scores here, some second chance points as well. This is a high total, certainly, but all Bowling Green totals are going to be very high the rest of the season. They’ve proven their tempo and their offense is quality, their defense is really bad. I’m going to take over 157 on this one.

Jeff Nadu:

You’re muted.

Kyle Hunter:

Muted.

Jeff Nadu:

My mistake again. Any thoughts, Big Man, on this game if no official play?

Jeff Nadu:

TJ, always with the mute, man. Every show. I-

Jeff Nadu:

If only we had that for you on occasions. Go ahead, any thoughts or official play here?

Jeff Nadu:

I played the over 156 and a half, I had a number that flashed up on a book that I play. I bet it, I don’t see any reason to not play it. You look at the last couple between these teams, 90-69, 93-65, 97-82, 92-82. It’s up and down with these two teams. There are some defensive deficiencies as he talked about. I have no issue with this one. It’s a high total. Obviously, anytime you play anything above 155, It’s tough. But yeah, I have no issue with it, I played it myself. It’s just one of those games where I’m going to be on it. The pace is there, the offensive calibers are. Central Michigan, they’re not a good team but they are a good three point shooting team and, Bowling Green, anytime they play a team with a pulse, the games are high scoring. So, yeah, I’m on this as well.

Jeff Nadu:

Again, we make mention of this and, Kyle, I want you to elaborate just a second for your strategy. You could have gone a couple of ways, you like underplays in particular. How long did you look at the total on this one and was there a little total movement on it as well?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I’ll tell you. The thing that I was trying to decide in this game is whether I wanted to bet online Bowling Green team total over or whether I wanted the game over and I ended up going with the game over just based on the fact that Bowling Green’s three point defense is so bad. There has been some line movement up and down and back and forth on this total. Bowling Green, to me, they’ve been really consistent at scoring against bad defenses so I think we can count on them to score. Obviously, if Central Michigan’s missing their threes, that’s a concern for this but Bowling Green’s defense against threes has been so bad I decided to go ahead and take the game over. The other thing is, the spread being what it is, it’s right in that fouling range. So, at the end of the game, if the spread is 6, 7, 8 points, you could get those 20 points in the last minute type situation which, if you’re an over better, you love that certainly.

Jeff Nadu:

All right, we will lock it in officially for Kyle Hunter. Play number one for a Tuesday, he is on the over in this MAC game coming tonight in Michigan with Bowling Green and Central Michigan. Game number two and this one in the Atlantic 10, very interesting on paper. The Bonnies of St. Bonaventure who had a great pre conference season, one of the favorites, obviously, year in and year out in this conference. Davidson, who’s had some quality wins out of the conference and even in the Atlantic 10 comes in as a three point dog and the total at 135 and a half. Back to the Big Man on what he likes. What do you like here on Tuesday night?

Jeff Nadu:

All right, so when this number came out, OddsMakers opened it at 140, okay? I thought that was a fair total, I had this at first to 70 wins. This morning, as I submitted what I wanted, I was hoping for an over 140, maybe 139. But the total is 135 now, the whole world’s betting this game under the number and I understand why, the pace in this game isn’t there. The problem is neither defense is great, Davidson’s definitely not. Davidson’s defense is poor, quite honestly, it always has been under Bob McKillop. One thing that’s good about Davidson is they’re very efficient offensively. They shoot threes like layups, this team has a couple of marksman including, in my opinion, the best shooter in the country, Foster Loyer, 50 for 108 this year from the three point and that’s pretty incredible to have that much volume and that much efficiency. I think Davidson will struggle here on the road to get stops, it’s that simple.

Jeff Nadu:

When I look at St. Bonaventure, I don’t know if they’re an overly good defense either. They haven’t actually been good in conference defensively, they don’t foul much but they’re not a great defense. They’re going to give up three point shots, it’s just that simple. It’s really a question of can Davidson knock them down. I think there’s pass to offense for both teams. I know when you look at both scores last year, it’s hard to get involved. In fact, one didn’t even get to 120 but I’ll gladly be on the side of, to me, where I think books thought this game would be as opposed to where it’s been bet. Obviously, the move down isn’t great but I’m getting the best price, I’m getting four and a half points of value on a total that I had at 140, I’ll play 135 and a half.

Jeff Nadu:

There’s just too much offense for me on these two teams plus we look at the free throw percentages, 78% for Davidson, 77%, almost 78% for Bonnie. If this game is close at the end, I’m hoping we see Bonaventure caught up by five to seven points in this game where it’s never close. Because, as we saw last night in Colorado State, Wyoming, when you have an over at that 140 mark-ish, you want those fouls at the end. I don’t want to a close game because possessions are going to be longer, they’re going to be shorter, they’re not going to be as many. I think this game’s total too low, I played the over.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. Kyle, any thoughts here on this one with St. Bonaventure hosting Davidson?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I had this game at 139. I am surprised that the line has moved to this degree to the downside. I think people want to bet the under here because of the tempo and certainly the pace of play isn’t expected to be very quick here. Jeff, I think you know, at this point, people keep thinking St. Bonaventure’s defense is going to be good. Last year they were good on defense but, this year, that defense hasn’t showed up, it’s been completely different. Last year they were 20th in defensive efficiency in the country, this year 158th. Pretty big difference there and, also, the biggest weakness, like Jeff said, of the St. Bonnie defense is defending the three point line. It’s not the weakness that you want to have against Davidson. Davidson absolutely nails from three point range. St. Bonaventure, really, really bad defending the three which really doesn’t make too much sense to me. You would think that the team, with the athleticism that they had, would be pretty good defending the three point line but they’re 263rd in three point defense.

Kyle Hunter:

Davidson’s number one in the country according to shot quality and shot making, so they got some really good shooters on this team. Davidson’s offense is always a thing of beauty. McKillop’s offensive sets are tremendous. You can sit and watch those and they’ll run very good motion plays. St. Bonnie, on the other end, prefers to attack the basket and, Davidson, they lack a shot blocker, nobody there’s going to be blocking shots. Davidson’s 12th in [inaudible 00:14:46] play and defensive efficiency. So, initially, when I looked at this one, I didn’t think that it was a screaming over or anything but, at this number, you’re looking pretty low with the quality of shots that each team should get in this one. And, this should be a close game as well so we could have a foul fest later we could even have another overtime, so I agree with the over here.

Jeff Nadu:

Keep in mind as well, we’re beating the move here. I’m getting the best number on this game where I want to play it. I’m almost, again, on the side of the book here. The book put at 140, 139 and a half, 139, I’m getting 135. So, I feel like this could be one of those games that might fall in the middle where it might hit 137, 138 and books get crushed which is, no offense, what I think a lot of people aim to do. Keep in mind quickly, last year, Bonaventure did a better job against the motion offense that McKillop runs. Keep in mind, when you look at the schedule, Bonaventure had nine days to prepare for those back to backs on February 21st to February 24th of last year, had a couple of days off in the middle as well, not this season. Okay, they’re just coming off a game on Saturday against St. Joe’s, they didn’t have to travel or anything but you’re not getting as much prep time. I think this is a game that’s 72-68, something like that. I think we see a fun offensive matchup here.

Jeff Nadu:

One quick note, shout out to my buddy Bill Rohland who is the voice of the George Mason Patriots. Mason beat St. Bonaventure last week to reference Kyle’s point, beat them by nine, 75-66. They made 15 threes, 15 out of 32 as Jeff was referencing, not only volume but making them, that could be a big weapon tonight. Now again, Bonaventure was at George Mason Arena in that one, now they’re back home. Will Davidson have the same looks? Will they make the looks as the road team tonight? We’re going to find out. The Big Man cares about points, points, lots of points and going over. Let’s lock it in tonight for the Bonnies of St. Bonaventure and the Davidson Wildcats, he wants the over total for this evening’s second game.

Jeff Nadu:

A reminder, if you’re just finding us, first of all, where have you been? We’re here Monday through Friday at 1:00 Eastern Time on the BetUS college basketball picks Basketball Show, going all the way through the month of March and the craziness, we will be here giving you advice, et cetera. Make sure to subscribe, hit the like button, hit the bell, share it out. You see it right there on the screen. We are climbing, climbing past, not only a thousand subscribers. I want to get us to 1,500 by the month of March, I think we can get there with your help.

Jeff Nadu:

Keep promoting, keep sharing it out, et cetera, et cetera here and find us live and I know a lot of people because I talked to several that see us later on in the day. Again, we’re live at 1:00 Eastern Time, we’re answering questions interactively, we’ll do that again here in a few minutes. Get in the Q&A right now if you’ve got questions on certain games, totals, which side, whatever, we’ll do our best to answer those as we go along.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, next up, rematch time in the SEC. Hey, Alabama, congrats on beating Baylor at home, now go play number one Auburn at Auburn, your rival, and the Tigers will lay six and a half points in this game tonight, the total at 156 and a half for the matchup. Okay, so it’s no official play as it turns out because of some line movement. Let’s begin with Jeff. Jeff, you put this game on the schedule, I was ready to talk about it anyway but, now, some line movement, no official play but what about the tide re-matching Auburn who beat them in Tuscaloosa a couple of weeks ago?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, Kyle put this on, I probably would have either way but, yeah, it’s good game to talk about, TJ. I thought you put this on, quite honestly, you always [crosstalk 00:18:28]-

Jeff Nadu:

I should have.

Jeff Nadu:

… some good ones. Yeah, you should.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to take credit for that but, no, yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, yeah. So, I want to look at the first game. It got to 158, there were 13 combined missed free throws. Auburn shot seven for 26 from three, that’s 27%. Alabama shot seven for 31, that’s 23% and they still got to 158. What does that mean to me? Well, first of all, when you look at the box score, Auburn did whatever they wanted from two and from half court of land. Alabama did whatever they wanted, it got to the free throw line a lot. I think the pace is there, I don’t understand. I’ll just go back to the well and bet the over, I think there’s two high profile, good offensive teams. As we know with Alabama, they’re not a good defensive group, throw on the fact that they’re on the road here.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, Auburn is going to get 80 plus in this game. It’s really a question of can Alabama do what they want to do. As we know with Auburn, they’re living on the edge, they’re going to lose at some point here. Could it be tonight? I don’t think. I think they lose at Arkansas which is what I’ve said in a couple of weeks here. I had this one at first to 80 wins. Pace will be there, both teams are efficient. I think the over had some value. Why is the total where it is especially after what we saw last game which we’re not likely to see this game?

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle, I didn’t mean to short you if you were very interested in this as well, we’ll tee you up here. Again, Auburn off of a win over Oklahoma at home this weekend, they’ve obviously already been Kentucky at home, they’ve beaten Alabama on the road. There’s a lot to like, at least, from that standpoint if you’re looking at Auburn at home. I know you don’t have an official play but what do you think here?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I feel like we should add our friend Gary Segers on here for this one. He’s Crimson Tide, he’s going to be pumped about this game, I’m sure. So, he’ll be heavily invested, emotionally, at least. Alabama is a team that has been so up and down this season. Nate Oats’ teams have been good defensively in the past, they’re not good defensively so far this year. I do think though, guys, that Alabama’s played the toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, they still have a high upside. I like Alabama as a futures play at this point thinking that there’s at least potential for this team to make a run in the NCAA tournament. So, I think I see some value betting Alabama on a futures. What would I want to bet in this game? If I had to bet this game, I would bet the over like the Big Man said there.

Kyle Hunter:

The first game was 158 and ShotQuality says, according to the quality of shots, it should have been 164. So, it was no fluke they got to that, it should have been even higher. Alabama’s 21st in shot selection according to ShotQuality, they’re 185th in shot selection allowed on defense. So, their games have been really high because they’re better on offense than they’ve been some years in the past, they’re a lot worse on defense. And I think Alabama’s certainly capable of winning a game like this but it wouldn’t surprise me if they lose the game by 15 or 20 either. So, that’s why I’m hesitant to back Alabama. I will say, if I had to take a side, I think I would lean Alabama in this game thinking Auburn might be just a little bit overvalued here at this point. I think Auburn is a good team, I don’t know that Auburn is the best team in the country as it has looked here lately.

Kyle Hunter:

So, Nate Oats, I think his team will improve, Bruce Pearl’s done a great job with this team certainly. There’s going to be a lot of pace in this game. So, the only way you lose an over is if there’s really poor shooting numbers. So, I’m going to lean to the over here in this one.

Jeff Nadu:

Seventeen straight wins for Auburn for what it’s worth. All right, let’s have fun for just a second here with the Auburn AD coming out and saying Bruce Pearl’s agreed to a lifetime contract to remain at Auburn. What was your initial reaction? Again, I’ve been doing this for a long time, what was your initial reaction when you heard lifetime contract for Bruce Pearl? Either one of you have one when you heard that?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, look, my initial thought about Bruce Pearl is always I don’t know. He’s a slimy guy, I’ve always said that. He’s definitely someone that, over the years, has really toed the line of what you can and cannot do but I think, that being said, every college coach doesn’t make it right. At this point, though, I think I’m happy for him. He’s a guy that really has answered the call, this team has been really good, he’s had some great groups, he’s made a couple of Sweet Sixteens, Elite Eights.

Jeff Nadu:

I think he deserves it. Made the final four a couple of years ago with that [Okiki 00:23:06] Bryce Brown team, I was happy for him. As I’ve said before, the fact that the federal government wastes time on what college basketball coaches are doing and then, eventually, they legalize everything and let everyone get paid anyway, it was a complete joke. What was the oversight of the FBI? They should be working on other things, what a waste. But yeah, good for him. What does that mean-

Jeff Nadu:

Do we-

Jeff Nadu:

… lifetime but-

Jeff Nadu:

My loaded question [inaudible 00:23:33], do we really believe it’s lifetime? Do we really believe he’s not going to be anywhere else? And I believe the NBA, maybe, he will try. I don’t know if it’s another college program, I just don’t see him being there for life. I know he’s in his 60s, I think he’s going to try something else. And, when I see lifetime contract, I automatically roll my eyes.

Jeff Nadu:

Let me ask you.

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle Hunter, your thoughts? Yeah?

Jeff Nadu:

Real quick, let me ask you, TJ, you’re in the south there, not too far away from this area. He’s going to make about little over $6 million per year, that’s a lot for a college basketball coach. If Louisville comes in and says, “Hey, we’ll pay you 10 million a year.”

Jeff Nadu:

Mm-hmm (affirmative), mm-hmm (affirmative).

Jeff Nadu:

I mean-

Jeff Nadu:

We’re going to find out what lifetime means, aren’t we?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, exactly. Is he a loyal guy? We’ll see.

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle Hunter, your thoughts on this? They are the number one team in the country, they’ve won 17 in a row. Your thoughts about Bruce Pearl and the deal?

Kyle Hunter:

I have some friends who are Auburn fans and I know they’re pumped about how the program’s doing and Pearl’s done a great job here, he’s a good coach. Initially, my first thought is, everywhere Pearl has gone, he’s gotten in trouble and then he leaves and they’re left on probation or something like that. So, if he is lifetime, does that mean that Auburn’s going to be in trouble at some point or I don’t know exactly how that’ll go. But TJ, this is maybe selfish of me, but I’m rooting for somebody to come in with a $10 million offer just to see if this lifetime contract is actually a lifetime contract. I think that’d be a fun exercise because I think money talks.

Jeff Nadu:

I keep hearing and reading from people that I talk to at Louisville and, again, I got no love for Louisville being a Memphis guy. They love Kenny Payne. Former player, he’s now an NBA assistant that that might be the guy. But I saw all the scuttlebutt from last week that you got to call Bruce Pearl and see if Bruce Pearl is interested. That is a basketball crazy school and he has, obviously, had success at multiple places, so let’s see, let’s see. We do know this tonight, it is the middle of a murderer’s row schedule, as you mentioned

Jeff Nadu:

. Baylor on Saturday for Alabama, Auburn tonight and then, hello, Kentucky will be next for Alabama. Let’s see how they do this evening in this matchup at Auburn. Again, no official play from the handicappers on this one but, as they were both saying, they like they over maybe as the play if you’re going to look at this one for tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, we move on. Big 12 action very interesting tonight between Texas and Texas Tech, this one in Lubbock where Chris Beard will return with his Longhorns against his old team. Speaking of that final four,

Jeff Nadu:

, in Minneapolis in 2019, I was there at US Bank Stadium where Auburn was this close, you can’t see him anymore, this close to getting into the title game, they did not. Texas Tech, instead, got into the title game and then lost to Virginia in overtime with Chris Beard. Now he’s the Texas coach, now he is back against his former assistant Mark Adams who’s got the Red Raiders looking good right now. They are laying four and a half points and I believe both handicappers are on this game. Big Man, you go first. What do you like and why in the battle in the Big 12 tonight?

Jeff Nadu:

Texas is, I think to a lot of people, if you follow college basketball, they’ve been the head scratcher team of the Year. It just seems like we haven’t seen a vintage, really good performance out of this group. They’re lucky they were able to beat Tennessee over the weekend because I think we could really be asking ourselves the question of what the hell have they actually done to deserve being in the NCAA Tournament? They’re 16 and 5 but where’s the quality win on this schedule, I guess, outside of that? I don’t think they’re a shoo-in by any means, this is a huge game for them when you look at brackets, when you look at everything but it’s also a huge game for what’s going on off the court.

Jeff Nadu:

Chris Beard basically said, “Vafangool to Lubbock.” And, if you don’t know vafangool means, look it up, I don’t want to say it on here. But he said, “Vafangool to you” and he went to Austin. And you better believe those kids in Lubbock that are sleeping out in tents to get in this game aren’t going to forget that. This is like LeBron James going back to Cleveland. Chris Beard is public enemy number one like Al Capone was in the ’20s in Chicago, he was the most dangerous man and they think that in Lubbock, they hate Chris Beard.

Jeff Nadu:

This is a huge game and this is a great game, four points. I told myself, if I was getting above four, I’d be on Texas here. I think when the rubber meets the road, this game comes down to the absolute wire. I think there’s things for both teams, defensively, that you have to like. I think Texas, offensively, has a little bit more upside here to me. I think we’re just waiting for that vintage performance from Beard who says, “You know what, Lubbock? Vafangool. I’m going to come in and beat you too.” And you know what? One other thing, Mark Adams, great coach, I think he would have done a great job with Texas Tech but he’s a pupil of the great Chris Beard. I think student doesn’t get the better tonight of the teacher, teacher gets the job done. I think Texas wins this game. I’ll take the four points, though.

Jeff Nadu:

Very interesting. Kyle Hunter, your thoughts on this matchup in Lubbock?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, Jeff, I don’t know what that means but I have a good guess based on anything that … No, but I will say-

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t think it means I think of you finally, we can-

Kyle Hunter:

No, not exactly.

Jeff Nadu:

… ascertain that, yeah.

Kyle Hunter:

[crosstalk 00:29:06] like that. Games don’t get much bigger than this game. Texas and Texas Tech, Chris Beard and Texas versus his old team. There were students camping out more than two days before this game started. I don’t really know exactly how that works but this is going to be a fun atmosphere. Texas has held three opponents, the last three opponents to 51, 50 and 51 points. They’re excellent defensively, we know they will be with Chris Beard as their coach. So, he knows this program really well, Texas Tech, he knows their offensive schemes extremely well. I don’t think Texas Tech will score a lot of points in this one. Now, Texas Tech, defensively, has been elite under Mark Adams as well. Their ninth in defensive efficiency so far this year, tremendous defense. I think these are two teams that are not going to give up open shots very often at all and, really, Texas hasn’t been great in transition defense but I don’t expect this to be a game that’s played in transition very much.

Kyle Hunter:

Both of these teams are very slow paced. Texas is number one in the country in half-court defense. I think this game is played in the half court. Texas Tech is excellent against cutting action, so the bat cuts, Texas runs that cutting style as much as anyone in the country, Texas Tech is eight against that offense. So, I think we see a really low scoring, tight game here. I’m a little bit concerned that this is a possibility of an overtime type game. I think this is a really close game here but 123, my number is a good amount lower than this for this game. It’s hard to bet unders at a really low number but, with this number moving up some here, I think this is a defensive battle. It wouldn’t surprise me if nobody gets to 60 in this one.

Jeff Nadu:

Hey, TJ.

Jeff Nadu:

Yes, sir?

Jeff Nadu:

Let me ask you, isn’t this what college basketball is right here? This is why we love it. You got a great atmosphere here, it’s great to have this back. How many times did we take for granted this kind of game? This is what we want. 9:00, two Texas schools, don’t like each other, great.

Jeff Nadu:

And it does have the Kansas-Iowa State game as the lead in. There’s a couple three games going on tonight because Alabama-Auburn is going to be same time as Texas-Texas Tech. And you mentioned again, Beard seemed to own the Longhorns and Shaka Smart when he was there well, now, he is with the Longhorns, he is the Longhorns coming in as the rival Texas Tech impressively bounced back from the double overtime loss to Kansas, won the game with Mississippi State in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this weekend, now they host Texas tonight and both of our guys are on this game. The Big Man likes the Longhorns coming in on the road and will take the points, interesting on that. So, we locked Jeff in at Texas plus four and a half on the BetUS line. Kyle Hunter likes low scoring dog fight here, under 123 for him in this matchup this evening. So, lots of eyeballs on that one. There’ll be a lot of emotion, the crowd, the whole thing. This is what we enjoy now that we flipped the calendar to February.

Jeff Nadu:

All right, very good with the official plays and we will get to, now, some of what you guys are wanting to know that are watching us here. Julian is watching us and wants to know, he says, “More bingo gear, please.” Julian wants to know why is the North Carolina line so short against Louisville in this matchup? Do either one of you have an opinion on that for the viewer?

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t know if it’s short. It’s a road game, I think if it were in Durham, it would be six, seven, I think that would be fair. Listen, I think Louisville has quit. I said that before MAC and I feel like they threw up their last effort over the weekend, now you get Carolina. Carolina is tough. You’re not going to have Malik Williams tonight who is their best defender and leading scorer, he was suspended, not ideal for this matchup. Carolina, I haven’t been overly impressed but I think Caleb Love has been good, their defense has been a bit better recently. I think Bacot’s a problem for them in this game if you’re Louisville. I think the number makes sense. I played Carolina myself, I don’t play them a ton but I just think Louisville is dead and buried, I’m done with them. Carolina, you look at where they are in the bracket talk, they’re not a shoo-in either. They can’t really afford to go on the road and lose to a downtrodden Louisville group here. I think they’re significantly better and Malik Williams not in there really hurts.

Jeff Nadu:

You mixed downtrodden in there, I like that. Kyle Hunter, any thoughts here? Louisville did hang in after falling way behind to Duke in the first five minutes, they battled back and showed something for whatever that’s worth, still got beat going away by Duke in the final couple of minutes. But anyway, they’re back at home, any thoughts here about this matchup?

Kyle Hunter:

I think this line is what it is because Carolina has been bad on the road. If you look at their road performances, they lost at Notre Dame, they beat Charleston on the road and Boston College. Those are the two teams they’ve beaten on the road. They lost to Miami by 28 points, they lost to Wake Forest by 22 points which is definitely not a very good look. North Carolina has played good of late but those three games were at home so I think this line is about right, I don’t even really have a lean in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

Fair enough. Again, that matchup coming at 8:00 Eastern Time tonight, ACC network by the way if you’re looking for it on the tube for Louisville and North Carolina. Viewer tip, The Cap says Providence-St. John’s, plus three and a half for St. John’s. He says, “Weird line.” Do you disagree or do you guys agree that that’s about where it should be?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I like St. John’s here, personally. We’ve got to seen these spots in this Big East, we’re going over every game. You look at Marquette or not Marquette, Providence, they’ve been rolling. St. John’s, the world’s fallen down, they’ve had a tough year, inconsistent yet they’re two and a half, three point favorites here at home. This number tells you all you need to know. I’ll say it now, I think St. John’s wins by double digits.

Jeff Nadu:

Ooh.

Jeff Nadu:

It just doesn’t make sense, man. Sorry.

Jeff Nadu:

Providence did beat them at home by double figures, for what it’s worth, back in December.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, and again, revenge as well, hard to beat a team twice. This is just one where I don’t try to think over things. I’ll be on St. John’s, that simple.

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle, any thoughts if no official play on this one?

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I would take St. John’s here, too. The first game, I like to talk about shot quality. The first game was 83-73, Providence. ShotQuality thinks the game should have been 76-71, St. John. So, St. John’s missed a lot of shots they usually make, Providence was making everything. Providence is screaming regression, I don’t think this team is as good as they look here recently. Ed Cooley’s a good coach so I’m hesitant to bet against them a lot. Having said that, I think this is a really good spot here for St. John’s.

Jeff Nadu:

Got the win against a hot Marquette team at home, out fought them by two on the weekend. Let’s continue. I’m looking here, Matthew wants to know Boston College and Virginia in the ACC, neither one of them scoring a bunch. The over under number at 118, Matthew interested in the under. Kyle, you’re big on the unders, is that an under play that you might be interested in here or is the number not low enough?

Kyle Hunter:

TJ, I like unders, under 118, hard to take really. 120 is about as low as I ever really want to go. Obviously, we know why this number is so low. Virginia is the slowest paced team in the country. Boston College has been a bit up and down as far as their defense. This Virginia team, defensively, is good but they’re not nearly as good as they’ve been in some recent seasons. In fact, they rank 104th in KenPom in defensive efficiency which is strange when you’ve seen number one, number two, number three on them so many different years. I can’t take under this low now. It could certainly be a 50 or 48 type game but I think there’s enough unknown and variants in this game that I can’t take under that low of a number.

Jeff Nadu:

Big Man, any thoughts here? Hold your nose on this one if you’re a fan of offense?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think there’s two games tonight that I think you are holding your nose but I would probably lean, laying it for Virginia. I think it’s quite honest that Boston College is dreadful and they can’t score.

Jeff Nadu:

Right.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re dead last in every offensive category. Last year, they only scored 49 in this game, I think nine is a little too low. I had this one 63-49 or something. I think it’s a low scoring game but I think Virginia probably covers. I’ll tell you another one, I think Tennessee is in a similar spot tonight. I’ve talked about these small, early teens plays with these home teams in the SEC. Arkansas was in a similar spot a couple of weeks against South Carolina, I played that one, they did come back and ended up covering but I think Tennessee screams 75-60 here, that’s another one that I was interested in. I know they’re tough to lay because both offenses are a struggle at times but I think both defenses really clamp down on bad opponents offensively.

Jeff Nadu:

Tennessee hosting Texas A&M and that is an 11-point line for the Vols, advantageous there if you’re looking at Texas A&M who has not played poorly as of late. By the way, back to the BC-Virginia game, that is a 6:00 Eastern Time start. Television dictating that, ACC Network dictating that because they’re going to roll right into the North Carolina game after that so BC-Virginia a little bit earlier on the slate. Time for one more, maybe two more, let’s see. Cliff is watching us, hello, Cliff, and he says, “I’m on Toledo team total over 80 tonight against Eastern Michigan.” Any thoughts from you guys on that? Another MAC game. Any He thoughts, guys, on his team total play with Toledo?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I don’t have any issue with it. They score 80 every game, it seems like, in this conference. I think they’ve only not done it once and that was against [inaudible 00:39:40] who plays pretty slow. Mid Major Matt likes Toledo a lot and I don’t have an issue-

Jeff Nadu:

He got them Friday, right? He got him over the team total on Friday for a win.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, it’s really a question of where the number is and where you want to play it. I have a thought that I want this at 79 and a half or below where an 80 is a win. Once you get to 80 and a half, you need mid-80s to feel comfortable with it. But yeah, I don’t have an issue with it. Eastern Michigan plays quick, so that’s helpful here. But yeah, again, these are games where if you’ve made money with it, I don’t think you need me to tell you to stop doing it. I would be on it, sure.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, I like this one, too, TJ. I think that if you see Eastern Michigan’s tempo, the only question here for me is Eastern Michigan going to be able to shoot the ball very well because their offense has been terrible. But if we take that out of the equation, with just looking at Toledo team total, I like the team total over better than the game over. 91, 83, 87, 86, 84 points in Toledo’s last five games. So, they’ve done it last the few games, I don’t see any reason to go against it here.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. Patrick, any plays from Michigan-Nebraska. Again, Michigan still smarting from being beaten by rival Michigan State on the weekend. Any thoughts, guys?

Jeff Nadu:

It seems like any time Michigan, they maybe have figured it out, you realize, well, maybe they haven’t. This team’s not going to make the NCAA Tournament, guys. I hate to tell you. Unless they beat Purdue once or twice here, this team’s not in the NCAA Tournament right now. It’s crazy to think about but they just haven’t been good enough. They falter in every game that means something. No, I don’t have any interest in playing them right now on any level.

Kyle Hunter:

Yeah, TJ, I think the worst call I’ve had all year on this show was taking Nebraska and the points earlier this year against Michigan. I don’t want any part of this game, I was burned once trying to back Nebraska. I don’t know what to think of this game. Like Jeff said, Michigan’s an unknown to me, I don’t see myself betting a Michigan game here for a long time. It’s pretty easy pass for me looking at Michigan games. We’ll see what happens, watch the game, see if you learn something about the next one.

Jeff Nadu:

Write them off on that one. Kansas got beaten up, obviously, by Kentucky on Saturday, now they’re at Iowa State. Again, this one on National TV tonight at 7:00 Eastern Time. I believe I have that time right. That’s correct, 7:00 Eastern Time, 6:00 local time in Ames for Iowa State. Iowa State off a win over Missouri over the weekend, Iowa State also won a crazy overtime game at Oklahoma State last week, seems they’re playing well. Any thoughts, guys, for the viewer that wants to know about Kansas and Iowa State?

Kyle Hunter:

God, it’s hard.

Jeff Nadu:

I see silence, I see silence on that. So, does that indicate you think the line is right where it should be? Kansas as a two and a half point road favorite not much there?

Kyle Hunter:

Well, I think this line was four and a half last night so, now, it’s two and a half. We’ve seen some pretty significant line movement. If it was four and a half, I would have had to lean toward Iowa State here but the problem is Kansas gets blown out by Kentucky and that was just an absolute beat down at Kansas, embarrassing loss for them. I’m not anxious to bet against Kansas coming off that performance. You would think that they would show up in a game like this, they have a good heart and team chemistry, you think they would show up in a big way here. So, I’m going to lean to Iowa State but I don’t feel really confident about this one, it’s not quite enough points for me now.

Jeff Nadu:

It had a wild finish earlier in January where Iowa State had taken the lead on a shot late in the game and then Dajuan Harris hit the game winning driving layup for Kansas in the final seven seconds. Iowa State went to the other end with a shot to win the game down by one, couldn’t make it, Jayhawks got the win, rematch game coming in this one tonight. Iowa State as the home underdog, we’ll see what happens-

Kyle Hunter:

TJ.

Jeff Nadu:

… in that one. Yes, sir?

Kyle Hunter:

Mid Major Matt just put in the chat there that Agbaji is out which is definitely the-

Jeff Nadu:

Huge.

Kyle Hunter:

… reason for the move here. With Agbaji out, yeah, I would have stayed, in fact, I might put a little bit of a bet on that one because-

Jeff Nadu:

Also, keep in mind, this team defensively not been good. I think that’s a real problem for Kansas going forward. They can’t seem to stop offenses. I know-

Jeff Nadu:

[inaudible 00:44:16] the case Saturday. Saturday, they didn’t stop Kentucky from doing anything.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, they couldn’t stop Kansas State either, they looked terrible against Texas Tech. They’re missing Marcus Garrett from last year, he was a great defender for them, I’m not going to have Agbaji. I think, also, we have to continue to remember, I know McCormack at times looks really good but, when he has to step up and play a competent frontcourt, he’s too weak, he’s timid, he can’t handle the strong, hawking front court. Look at Saturday, he was pathetic against Tshiebwe. If you have any tenacity or toughness, he will cower like a little child in the corner, he can’t deal with it. I’m just being honest.

Jeff Nadu:

Look at the games where he has had to step up, look at Tanner Groves, six points against him. Texas Tech, he had four points, Kentucky, he had three points. He cowers against good front courts. Now, he didn’t play well against Iowa State the first time, only had one point, they did a nice job with him. If I’m a coach, I would pull my bigs over and say, “Get physical with him. He can’t handle it, he’s too weak.” It’s been evident and Bill Self benched him for that before in the past.

Jeff Nadu:

All right, good enough on that. One more from me before we get to the best bets. UNLV off the Friday night win on the road at Colorado State where they were dominant, they are back home with Nevada tonight, late night in the Mountain West, 10:30 Eastern time, 7:30 Vegas time this evening as the running rebels. My goodness, what a fantastic night Bryce Hamilton had. We talked about it on the show on Monday coming off Friday a night, he had 45 against Colorado State. Can they duplicate it? Guys, I know you don’t have an official play, very curious to see what UNLV has. Now, can they validate that road win against the Nevada team that’s got some wins in the Mountain West? A little bit of a rivalry game.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, it’s a tough game here. UNLV, as you said, they’re a one man show right now with … That’s the game you’re talking about, right? UNLV?

Jeff Nadu:

Correct, yes.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I like Hamilton a lot. Nevada is at that point for me. I’ve made a little money with them, I’ve lost a little money with them, they just haven’t had a consistency. It’s got blown out by Utah State, they can’t defend. I don’t know who’s playing for them, I know they didn’t have Warren Washington the last game. Yeah, it’s a pass for both teams. I have no interest in either group.

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle, any thought on Vegas? Kevin Kruger, the first year coach, the son of Lon Kruger, has gotten a couple of quality wins. That was an eye opener, I was even sending a message to the Big Man on a Friday night, I just put the letters U, N, L, V because we had talked about it on Friday and they were up double figures the whole second half of that game to win against Colorado State so, for whatever that’s worth. Any thought on the night coming back home, maybe a letdown at home a little bit?

Kyle Hunter:

I don’t know, it’s hard to have a letdown against your biggest rivals so, I don’t know. I would lean to the over in this game. I think there’s going to be plenty of tempo in this game. UNLV is hit and miss as far as their jumpers. Hopefully, they’re shooting like they were the other night, obviously. Going to Fort Collins and winning like that, really shocking, very impressive win, it’s a tough place to play. If I had to bet a side, I think I’d take UNLV but I think I like the over a little bit better.

Jeff Nadu:

All right, good enough, gentlemen. Let’s take a look at what the official plays are from Kyle Hunter and

Jeff Nadu:

for a Tuesday night card here from BetUS. Jeff with the over in the A10 game and also on a side of the Texas Longhorns in the Texas-Texas Tech game. Kyle has two total plays, one in the MAC and on that Texas-Texas Tech game, he likes some points although that’s a very … You do not like the points, it’s a very low scoring game. Again, as you mentioned Kyle, when you’re looking at a total of 123, you’re thinking, obviously, both teams low, mid-50s at best. You don’t want somebody to take off with a 30, 35 point first half in that situation, obviously. Right?

Kyle Hunter:

Right, if somebody gets way ahead, it’s not good at all because the other team’s pressing and fouling the whole second half. You have these low unders, you want to tight game in the first half and then no overtime.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. We will see how that one in Lubbock plays out. Any final thoughts on a Tuesday, gentlemen, before we’re out of here? Big Man, you good for Tuesday?

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, as always, good luck to everybody. We’ll see you back here on Wednesday.

Jeff Nadu:

Kyle Hunter, all good?

Kyle Hunter:

Real quick, [inaudible 00:48:44] asked in the Q&A, the Richmond game. I’m going to lean Richmond against Duquesne. I like Richmond’s team, I think they’ve not played at their very best so that would be my lean in that game. And looking forward to being back here again on Thursday, I know we have a big slate to cover on Thursday and I appreciate everybody who’s tuned in here today.

Jeff Nadu:

Good stuff. Again, we thank all of you for hanging out here with us. Reminder again, hit the like button, hit the bell, subscribe. You see it there one more time on the screen as we continue to climb in audience heading to the month of March, we’re loving it. We want more of your board, share it out, tell more people about it. For the Big Man on campus,

Jeff Nadu:

, for Kyle Hunter, I’m

Jeff Nadu:

. Thank you for being with us. That’s a Tuesday show fromBetUS College Basketball .