Jeff Nadu:
Doing well. It was a great game last night. It worked out for me. Look, sometimes I put too much on games that I shouldn’t, but I did. I really like Georgia in that game. It was a wild fourth quarter. That pick 6 was electric, loved it. What a great thing for Georgia. I haven’t one since 1980, so good for them. But now the calendar turns and we have some college hoops to talk about.
Jeff Nadu:
I was a little disappointed with my selection last night with South Dakota. Just missed a couple of free throws late. Actually had a shot, add 75 points from at the line with two to get it up and over, but the kid bricked both of them and just missed out. What are you going to do? Good season so far though.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah. It has been a good season and that was the team total play that you had last night in that one. And, again, not a lot to choose from. There was one packed 12 game and you did say this, Jeff, on the show yesterday that Oregon State playing Oregon in the rivalry game at home getting four and a half or five and it ends up being a one point game. You said, if I did have a lean or a play it would be Oregon State. And why is this line four and a half or five for them at home? They hung in even though they didn’t get the victory last night, the Beavers.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. They hung around. And that’s what the thought is. When conference play comes you kind of throw out what the records are and that’s Oregon State. I mean, this is a team that was not good in the non-conference last year, didn’t look like much of anything and what they do. They go and win Pac-12 and go to the NCAA tournament make a deep run. So with the students back last night in Beaver country, you knew that against their heated rival that was going to be a game that I think they’d played well in. And you mentioned Alatishe.
Jeff Nadu:
He was terrific last night, 16 and seven in 32 minutes. So I had a couple. This is what makes this show tough, man. And you have to put these games in a lot of the time the night before. I figure looking back Sunday night I wish I’d had probably looked towards maybe Texas Southern last night. I thought they were in a good spot against a team in Mississippi Valley that had come off their Super Bowl, beating purview over the weekend. Didn’t have their best player. They end up winning by what, 35. So what it could show. It is what it is.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah. And, again, we just go over this with the audience because of our production and everything that goes into it. A lot of times these guys are making a play on the night before or the morning of the show and the line might move and we get new information. Sometimes they have to yank a game. Sometimes they stay with the game, just how it works in our timeline and in our world on BetUS Kyle Hunter is back aboard as we mentioned here and I know you’re anxious to roll the sleeves up.
T.J. Rives:
We got several conference games that we’re going to get into here today, including one right away from the Pac-12. But just as a general thought, Kyle, before we get into the specific games, conference play whole new animal especially if you’re a team playing at home in conference play no matter what your record is, right?
Kyle Hunter:
Sure. The beginning of Conference season is always a unique candy cap as compared to everything that’s gone on so far in the season. And you guys know I’m the totals guy. So I have to say there have been a lot of overs here lately. Some really high scoring games. I think the last week of games in college basketball, we’re almost 60% the over. So we’ve seen a lot of scoring. There’s a lot of debate as to what has led to that. There’s been a little bit more fouls call.
Kyle Hunter:
The pace has been there a bit more. Some people think maybe these guys are getting a bit more conditioned than what they were earlier in the season. Having said that though I don’t know that that’s predictive of what’s going to happen over the next week or so. It’s just interesting to see that there have been a lot of higher scoring games. I do think that some of these teams that had a tough non-conference slate even a team like Jeff was just talking about there with Oregon State, some of those teams that have played really poorly in the non-conference, but played a pretty difficult non-conference slate could have some value as underdogs here early in Conference season.
T.J. Rives:
Always good to keep an eye on that and the totals, et cetera. Let’s take a look at our record going into action here on Tuesday. The big man on campus still above the 500 mark, Kyle right at the 500 mark as he begins making some predictions and we’ve got several plays coming today here on the show, let’s get to play number one and it is a Pac-12 game and it’s an afternoon game.
T.J. Rives:
It is a two Pacific time game at Maples Pavilion where Stanford is at Stanford has not played a game since before Christmas because of COVID pause and oh good. They get USC, unbeaten Trojans the top team right now in the Pac-12 comes in as a six point favorite the total at 139 and a half. Kyle Hunter, we go to you first for what you like and why in this one?
Kyle Hunter:
This is a weird 2:00 PM Pacific start time. No fans allowed at Maples Pavilion at Stanford for this one. So you can’t give Stanford the full court advantage, home court advantage in this one because I don’t know that they deserve much of any home court advantage here. It’s almost a neutral site game when you consider that they don’t have any home fans and they’re coming off that long COVID break. If anything Stanford might even be missing a couple guys in this one. There’s no final word as to that.
Kyle Hunter:
Coaches are very quiet about that, but Stanford not the talent level that USC is to begin with. Now they have some other disadvantages coming into this game. To me the problem here for Stanford too is their turnover problems on offense. 22.4% of their offense and possessions have ended in turnovers only 15.5% for USC. That’s a massive difference and USCs length can bother a lot of people. Stanford is a tall team as well. They just don’t have very good guard play.
Kyle Hunter:
Stanford’s transition defense has been a major problem this year. 347th out of 358 teams in the country according to shock quality and USC is a really fast paced team. They’re in transition on about 20% of their possessions on offense. So athletic big men there, we know that. USC is likely to get a lot of chances in the transition here. I think that’ll work out pretty well. Stanford wants to get inside, not a great three point and shooting team. USC is sixth in the nation and defensive efficiency inside the paint.
Kyle Hunter:
So it’s not going to be easy getting those buckets there and the paint against them. If Stanford gets hot, gets red hot from outside, then maybe this play loses. But I think this is one of those plus expected value bets for me. I will say this was minus five last night when I dropped it in there. So it has gotten a point worse. I like five better, but I still like it at six as well.
Kyle Hunter:
I think that USC here the much more talented team, the team that just played a game after having a bit of a break played pretty good in that first game back. So they get their warm up game. Stanford this is their warm up game and I don’t think you want your warm up game to be against the most talented team in the Pac-12. So, well, second most probably to Arizona. So USC has the best record now, but Arizona is probably the most talented team. So USC to me in a good spot here, the better team I’ll lay the six points in the spot.
T.J. Rives:
Good on that. Big man, we did talk about USC at least I did and mentioned off the COVID pause. They looked fantastic in the first F against Cal the other night. One that one, any thoughts here if no official play on the afternoon, the matinee special 2:00 Pacific time coming up against Stanford?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. The pause that Stanford had obviously if it came at a bad time, they’d actually been playing pretty well, won four or five overall, four or five I think overall, and now you come off and as he said, you have to play one of the toughest teams in this Conference. I mean, right now I think we got to start talking a little bit about Southern Cal. I mean, defensively they have the best effect the field goal in the country and this team defensively has been nails.
Jeff Nadu:
They kind of I think are just a more talented San Diego State. That’s kind of what they are. I’d love to see another match between those two. We had the matchup earlier. It was just kind of a weird neutral site game right after Thanksgiving. I’d love to see that game again. The problem that Stanford has here is I think the one knock on USC is their free their percentage, but Stanford didn’t shoot the ball real well. There’s no match up here. I think that Stanford has that I like.
Jeff Nadu:
It’s also a team coming off a pause. Look, if this got to seven, seven and a half I wouldn’t have any interest, but at five, six, I think there’s still value on USC. At any point we’ve got to start taking a look at this group. And when they win it generally is coming by three plus possessions.
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, most of the time when they take care of business it’s been by margin. So I’m not real worried here. I think it’s a good spot. The only thing that might keep you off it is the early start, but you’re not going to have that crowd stuff, which we talked about just an odd thought that you can’t go to these games. Not really sure why, but I don’t have any issue with this play. Looks like a good one.
T.J. Rives:
Yeah. It doesn’t seem to make much sense. Again, they’re not asking us, but I did see my colleague, you guys might know the name, doing the game on TV is Roxy Bernstein who’s out of the Bay Area and Roxy is tweeting pictures with a shoot around and making the joke, this is going to look a lot like what the game looks like coming up later on because there’s nobody here for this except for those that are actually physically working the clock, working the score book, the teams themselves that kind of thing. It is a bit strange.
T.J. Rives:
And, again, important that you mentioned Stanford has not played a game since they were in Hawaii on December 23rd. They won the first two games of the Diamond Head Classic the University of Hawaii’s tournament in Honolulu. And then after the day off Stanford had a couple of positive cases and said, we can’t risk it. We can’t play. They canceled the championship game and even the semi-final third place game of that tournament. Stanford hasn’t played since, that was December 23rd. What will they look like coming up this afternoon? Kyle Hunter is questioning that enough.
T.J. Rives:
So we lock in his play on USC. He will lay the six points this afternoon with the Trojans in that matchup. Back to game number two. And we’re going to swing all the way from Northern California into State College Pennsylvania, where Penn State will host Rutgers in Big 10 play. We did talk a little bit briefly about Penn State on the show, Kyle, in your absence yesterday, but you have an official play on this matchup with the Nittany Lions laying three and the total at 132 and a half. What do you like and why?
Kyle Hunter:
At first I think Shrewsbury has done a really good job here with Penn State so far this year. I think he’ll be a good coach for them. I’ve been impressed with the way they’ve played especially with not great talent level there for Penn State. I don’t think that they’re buying in certainly to the process. I like the under in this game and I know I went with a side there in the first play. You’re usually going to hear totals from me more often than not.
Kyle Hunter:
And Penn State to me has done a really good job of forcing the opponent to play at their pace. Their pace is extremely slow. I think that that’s pretty intentional. They don’t have the talent level that some of the other teams in the Big 10 do. So they don’t want to get in these track meet games to get into a real high scoring game. They’re 353rd out of 358 teams in the country, and pace of play they’re 12th and free throw allowed on defense. So they are not fouling much at all.
Kyle Hunter:
They’re also top 50 in defensive rebounding percentage. I know you guys have heard me say this before, but I’m going to say it again, when you take an under, you want a team that doesn’t foul a lot and you want a team that doesn’t give up a lot of second chance points. Penn State has done a really good job of that. Not giving second chances. And Rutgers, I think Rutgers is a really well coached team. They’ve looked pretty good lately, inconsistent on offense for me though.
Kyle Hunter:
This is a Rutgers’s team. So they’ve looked good on offense lately, but let’s look at who they’ve played in those games, Maine, Central Connecticut State, Michigan who frankly hasn’t been very good and then Nebraska who’s obviously not good at all. So this is a tough test for Rutgers as compared to what they’ve been up against here lately. The Rutgers defense I do think is a trustworthy group. Like I said, I think they’re a well-coached team, a defensive minded coach.
Kyle Hunter:
And for Penn State lacking stars who can get their own points offensively, Jeff knows this, Jalen Pickett was really good a couple years ago for Sienna. He has not really been the same. He got injured last year he was okay but he wasn’t himself from a couple years ago. And Pickett still doesn’t look very good this year. Lundy is a good player, not really a guy that gets his own shot as much as a streaky shooter. I think this is a slow paced game and one where the two defenses have an advantage. So I’m going to take Rutgers and Penn State under the total here.
T.J. Rives:
Interesting. As Kyle mentioned, Rutgers has put together a four game win streak. You can question the competition a little bit. Again, they destroyed Nebraska in their last game, 93, 65. Big man, a thought here on this Big 10 matchup for a Tuesday night?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I have no interest in road teams in the big 10 especially Rutgers who is a disaster on the road and has been for a couple of years now. Now that we have fans back in 95% of these stadiums, you really have to think, put that back into motion. Look, at home in Piscataway they’re a good team and beat Purdue, but on the road I just don’t have any interest in Rutgers. I don’t think they’re a very good offensive team to begin with, which he kind of alluded to.
Jeff Nadu:
I will say, I mean, Penn State I actually do like them as a personnel group. I actually think some of their players are solid. I mean, I like Lundy a lot. I saw Sam Sesums when he was in high school, a terrific player at a couple different schools around the area. He transferred in and has been a nice pickup for them. I actually kind of liked him here in this game. I think they take care of business.
Jeff Nadu:
That’s a tough, weird place to play, kind of a weird atmosphere, but always a tough trip into the Bryce Jordan Center. So I kind of like Penn state if I would do say so myself. Rutgers I’m not interested in on the road. And this is the team that went on the road, lost to UMass lost at DePaul. I’m just never going to bet online on them on the road ever.
T.J. Rives:
All right. We’ll file that away. Penn State by the way did defeat Indiana at home back a couple of weekends ago, they did lose to Purdue in a tight game at home, 74, 67 in their last contest. You mentioned Seth Lundy. He had 23 in their win over Northwestern on the Road Can Score. Let’s see what will happen tonight with the Nittany hosting Rutgers and, again, Kyle Hunter is thinking not a lot of points. He’s on the under for our point total in game number two.
T.J. Rives:
A reminder, keep the questions and answers rolling for those of you in the live chat, Kyle and Jeff May be answering you in the live chat. We will get to a couple of those questions here at the end of our slate that you see on the left side of the screen, when it reappears there. Q&A coming up after a couple of more games. The next of those by the way will be the Northeastern Huskies. Northeastern will go and will travel into James Madison, JMU, believe Northeastern might be the terriers. I may have that confused with Yukon being Huskies. They’re a dog of some kind.
Kyle Hunter:
Huskies.
T.J. Rives:
And they are a dog last night on the board as well. So it is Northeastern Huskies. I was right on the first go around. James Madison is laying six in this one tonight. Big man on campus, we got an under over of 140, the total at 140 tonight. What do we like for this one here tonight at James Madison? JMU.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m going to play the over. You look at Northeastern not a lot jumps out to you offensively and I’m not going to tell you that I’m going to write home about their offense, but quite honestly, I mean, they do a nice job get to the line. They really kind of put their head down and get to the hoop. That’s what they want to do at Northeastern. And under Bill Cohen, they kind of run this motion offense and they’ve had some success over the years.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m not going to say this is one of his more talented teams, but they’re pretty adept at scoring the basketball. And you look at over the last six games, Northeastern is six and oh to the over, They’ve been over at all of them. I think they’re a pretty efficient offense. They’re not going to go fast. They’re not crazy up and down tempo team, but they get the job done and they score in the half court, which I think is pretty easy to do against JMU.
Jeff Nadu:
If you’ve ever watched JMU, they’re not a good defensive team. They play a really high, heavy pace. I actually had the over with them the other night against [inaudible 00:18:08]. I’ve been enjoying watching them play and they’re a good over team. So I think these two offenses I think are going to have some success tonight. JMU is really good on offense. They have a great team that goes up and down as I said. I think both offenses have some success tonight. I don’t need a ton of points here.
Jeff Nadu:
74, 70 is going to get the job done here. I think Northeastern is kind of being the team that has played a pretty tough schedule. I mean, they had one of the tougher strength to schedules in the country, but I think it’s starting to loosen up a little bit. They’re getting into their Conference play and that allows them to play a little bit more open. And this conference is not exactly a great defensive conference. So for me I’m going to play the over. It’s been ticked up a little bit. I got a pretty good price here at 140. I’ll bet on that.
T.J. Rives:
All right. Kyle Hunter, what about this match up? Any thoughts on it? I know you do not have an official play, but a thought or two.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I’ll keep it brief here because I will say I project all the totals out and I have this one at 140. So I’m pretty neutral on this one. I’ll be rooting for Jeff to win this one certainly. You’ll definitely get pace with James Madison and he is definitely right on that 22nd average possession length. Bill Cohen’s teams at Northeastern are usually pretty efficient on offense. They actually weren’t very good offensively at the beginning of this year.
Kyle Hunter:
They’ve been a little bit better here of late usually kind of mediocre team on defense. And so overall a pretty well coached team. I think Northeastern will probably improve offensively and maybe this is their shot against the James Madison team that’s really not that great defensively. The pace should be there. Like I said, I had this number at 140 so I’m pretty neutral on this one, but I’ll keep my thoughts brief so we can get to quite a few of the questions and answers.
Jeff Nadu:
Generally when go on the road in conference play, you’re going to play at the pace of the home team and JMU wants to turn this beat up a little bit here. And I think they’re going to have some success doing that. So I think this is a little too low in this number.
T.J. Rives:
Let’s lock it in as, again, the game for Northeastern and the Dukes of James Madison. Jeff Nadu is on the over on the total tonight in that matchup at James Madison coming this evening. One more game on our slate that the handicappers have isolated to have official plays on. And that is La Salle and St. Bonaventure a showdown in Philadelphia.
T.J. Rives:
The Bonnies come in, they were darling in the pre-conference and they come in as a nine and a half point favorite. They’ve taken some losses after an early pre-conference tournament win. Now they’re nine and a half point favorites on the road against La Salle in Philly, total at 141 and a half. We’re right back to the big man, Jeff Nadu. What do you like?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. So I’m kind of betting online into a situation that I think is a handicap where you don’t want to do on a regular basis. Keep in mind, you mentioned some of the issues in non-conference play. We haven’t seen St. Bonaventure. They haven’t played since December 17th, almost a calendar. Wow. Since we last saw the Bonnies. They had a lot of time to stew about an 86, 49 pounding at the hands of Virginia Tech. And you lose by 37 points to a team like Virginia Tech, you’ve got some real issues and look, Bonnie had plenty of time to stew.
Jeff Nadu:
Now you come back, get them on the road, obviously not ideal, but this is a bad La Salle team. I’m just going to say that. Now this is a super soft group, one of the worst defensive teams you’ll find. One of the worst three point defenses you’ll find, just a Swiss cheese defense that gets crushed at the rim. This is the kind of team you want to play against coming back.
Jeff Nadu:
Now, I am getting into a little bit of a muddy water here with maybe personnel not being up to date for Bonaventure, but being off for nearly a month I’d have to imagine that they’re pretty much good to go. And I know we kind of talked yesterday about some of the teams that didn’t have success off of the bounce in the COVID pause. I don’t think Bonaventure is going to be one of them.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m willing to believe this is just a team that they should take care of. Last season first game they played beat them I think 76, 42 or something crazy. It was a blowout. I think La Salle is bad. I think Bonnie kind of comes out here with their head on fire and takes care of a bad team here and wins big. I thought at this number was a little low. Again, I’m not going to lay double digits nearly on the road all the time, but this is spot.
Jeff Nadu:
I did it in. By the way, if you ever go to La Salle, a little Philadelphia hack for you, don’t think. Make sure you be careful. It’s a tough neighborhood. La Salle sense if you ever calm to the brotherly, say your brotherly love. La Salle looks not nice, but it’s not that a great area. So make sure you stay safe if you’re going to the game tonight.
T.J. Rives:
This public service announcement from brother Nadu on the certain parts of Philadelphia to be careful. Kyle Hunter, what do you think here about this matchup again at St. Bonaventure team that has been off for a month as Jeff was basically saying they’ve lost three Atlantic 10 games to postponement right now. Now they’re coming back off the pause to play La Salle.
T.J. Rives:
Can this be a team that recaptures some of what we saw in Charleston? It was all the way back in November that they beat Clemson and followed it up with a win over Marquette to win the tournament in Charleston. I don’t know that either of you two, I or anybody watching us knows what to expect after a month off, Kyle.
Kyle Hunter:
I thought about this one a lot after I saw Jeff had this game and just took a pretty deep dive into this one St. Bonnie was a really highly rated team in the preseason. People thought they were going to be very good. They still could be very good. They have a lot of season left. Like Jeff said, and I agree with him on this, if you go into a COVID break playing really well, I think it’s probably a bad thing in that first game coming out of it.
Kyle Hunter:
But then if you’re absolutely smashed, embarrassed the way they were by Virginia Tech in their last game, they’ve had tons of time to think about. They’ve heard how bad they are, embarrassing loss. This is a senior laden team, a lot of veterans on St. Bonaventure. And I don’t know that you could be playing a much better team to try to get right against La Salle here in the first game back. La Salle, Jeff said defensively, they’re really a bad team. They’re really bad offensive too.
Kyle Hunter:
They kind of scrap play hard enough, but they just don’t really have any identity. This is not a team that has a talent level that should be able to hang around with St. Bonaventure. And La Salle, if you look at their schedule, they played the 339th toughest schedule in the country at a 358 according to Ken Palm. St. Bonnie in 94th. Lofton, Kyle Lofton a star for St. Bonaventure, he missed quite a few games there right before the break.
Kyle Hunter:
That certainly hurt them a lot too. So they made them look worse than what they really are when they’re at full strength. We don’t know exactly if they’re completely full strength here, but even if they are down a little bit, I think St. Bonnie should be able to handle La Salle. I agree with Jeff on this being a good spot for St. Bonnie to come back after losing that way and playing against the La Salle team that’s just not nearly as talented as them. So I will lean towards St. Bonnie as well.
T.J. Rives:
All right. Jeff has the official play on this one and it is lane points nine and a half of them with St. Bonaventure off the COVID pause against La Salle. Let’s see what they do look like in this matchup tonight. And, again, it’s a bit of a mixed bag because I know people were looking at that Florida Alabama game that we talked about last week where Florida had been on a pause, they’re playing at home, slept walked through a lot of the first half and fell behind.
T.J. Rives:
And if Alabama eventually beat them by double figures and covered in that game, then again you watch USC off a long pause and how they look. So you just got to try to navigate this as best you can off of these teams and what they look like beforehand. So that’s the official play is St. Bonaventure. All right.
T.J. Rives:
So let’s take a look now at what some of the fans might want here on the Q&A. Connor is watching us on the Tuesday edition to the BetUS College Basketball Show and he says, thoughts on Quinnipiac and Canisius. And we have talked about those teams. Big man shaking his head right away. Does this one go in the category of you’re betting a game just to bet a game that you keep preaching about on this show?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m always fascinated by these people that want to talk about these games, but I know why. I mean, the standalone game at 2:00 on a Tuesday. I mean, look guys, I’m going to keep preaching this. This is a coin flip. You can go get a quarter on your kitchen counter and flip it 10 times and whatever you get six out of 10 that’s what I would… It’s a bet you make because you need action and that’s not how you’re going to long term win in gambling. You’re just not. Look, if you have an edge on this I’d advise you to play it, but you’re not going to find one from me. I wouldn’t bet this with my worst enemy’s money and I hate my worst enemy. So I’m no interest here. None. There’s no-
T.J. Rives:
I’m glad we’re not your enemies. Are you a heads guy or a tails guy when calling the coin?
Jeff Nadu:
Tails never fails, bro.
T.J. Rives:
Tails never fails, baby. Kyle Hunter, tails never fails, baby.
Kyle Hunter:
Tails absolutely.
T.J. Rives:
Tails. I’m taking it that you’re echoing what he’s saying.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. Canisius is a team that in general I like to bet some overs with, but they’re coming off the COVID break. I don’t like betting overs, especially high overs and these afternoon games off a COVID break. I know why people are asking about Canisius, Quinnipiac and Iona and Fairfield. I mean, those are the afternoon games, but we don’t want to bet it just because it’s on. So I don’t see any big edge in this game either.
T.J. Rives:
By the way, speaking of Iona while we’re on that subject, I got to see some of that game with St. Louis the other night kind of a wild finish including Iona getting a chance on a broken play to score down by one, got to the rim and could not put it in at the very end. And that was, again, a COVID popup game where they makeshift were able to play, get the schedules together and be able to play because both of them were COVID healthy and it lost some opponents to COVID 19 postponement.
T.J. Rives:
So that game also going on this afternoon. So if you’re watching us live in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour those games are coming up. If you’re seeing us much later today, those have already happened. Nadu says you shouldn’t be giving a second thought to Quinnipiac and Canisius to begin with. Let’s continue. We have another viewer who wants to know. This is Paul. West Virginia Oklahoma State might be a little better here later on tonight in the Big 12 including Oklahoma State getting a good win on the weekend one over Texas I believe it was. They look good. Either one of you with a thought. Kyle, you got a thought on West Virginia Oak State.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I’m looking at the current odds here. I would lean to the under in this game. West Virginia is not the really fast paced press Virginia team that we saw a couple years ago. Good defense, not terribly efficient on offense this season. Oklahoma State, the only concern and why I didn’t make this a play is Oklahoma State and West Virginia are both good on the offensive glass.
Kyle Hunter:
As I’ve said, I don’t really like taking unders with two teams. They’re going to get a lot of second chances, but my strongest lean in that game is the under seeing 134 as a prevalent number, hearing this one. As far as the side, I don’t really have anything. I think three is a pretty fair number in that one.
T.J. Rives:
Game in Morgantown. Big man, any thought? No official play.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I got to be honest. This is a fascinating game because I think on the side, I think West Virginia if you can keep it under three, I have some interest because, as Kyle said, when you look at, I mean, Oklahoma State is coming off a huge win against Texas. Now you got to head down to Morgantown. That’s a tough place to play. I’m actually a big fan of West Virginia. They seem to be healthy again. From what I know, I know Taz Sherman is back, Sean McNeil, everybody is good to go, Gabe Osabuohien is back.
Jeff Nadu:
So I don’t want to be on them because I remember when I went to the fight that I had, we were in West Virginia, we were at a bar watching them play Yukon and they love basketball down there, but I was on West Virginia in that game. And I was constantly on the edge of my seat because they couldn’t make free throw at the end of the game. It was, ugly. When I look at the total, he mentioned he liked the under, I thought it was a little low. This game kind of screamed first to 70 wins.
Jeff Nadu:
I could see this being 70, 67 completely. If it goes down a little lower, I might buy an over, but I wish it were one and a half or I could get a good money line here because I’d probably lean on just playing West Virginia on the money line. But you’re going to be on the edge of your seat because they on a great free throw shooting team. This will be a close game. I think it’s one of those if it gets a three or four, maybe I’ll buy Oak State, if it gets goes a little bit lower, you might buy a WVU here at home.
T.J. Rives:
And Huggins his teams at Cincinnati were notorious for struggling with the foul line. His West Virginia teams though usually are good free throw shooting teams. So they’ve not been good this year as Jeff is saying or not been and as good as what they need to be. So we’ll shoot on that.
Jeff Nadu:
Here’s one thing that it’s important to realize. When you’re talking about free throw percentage, understand it’s a cumulative average of the entire team, right? So here’s why free throw percentage can suck. Because you might have a kid that’s got eight attempts and he’s one for eight. That hurts your collective. So when you look at it, you have to ask yourself is this whole team really bad or are they all kind of good? You look at their top three free throw takers. McNeil is 78%, Taz Sherman 79%, Malik Curry 65%, and they’re not terrible. So you have to look at that kind of stuff. Two and a half I leave West Virginia. At BetUS you can get two and a half currently.
T.J. Rives:
And you make a great point that that can be dragged down by some guys that maybe don’t play a lot. Who are the guys that are shooting the most of them and what do they shoot? That’s another good way to break it down.
Jeff Nadu:
I remember a couple of years ago Taco Fall, I think he was a sophomore at UCF, they had every other player was 80% and you had Taco Fall was 30% and it killed their average. So you have to look a little deeper into the free throw percentages and ask yourself, who’s likely to get the ball late in games. [inaudible 00:32:41] isn’t this stupid. He’s going to take Osabuohien who’s eight, six for 30 on the yard. He’s just not going to be in the game at that point.
T.J. Rives:
And that’s a great point that you make too because once you get to January and you’ve pretty well established this guy stinks at the line he’s not going to be in the game in those situations to take those free throws, but it still measures out with the overall average. I always love too when I’m working a game, they give you the breakout. A lot of times, these good sportsbook information directors who are the guys that shoot the best in the final two minutes, here are the free throw percentages in the final two minutes when a game is on the line and it matters the most about the free throws.
Jeff Nadu:
Maybe I need to talk to you because you know what one of my dream jobs is, I would do it for free to be honest. I just love it so much. I want to be a statistician spotter for radio and TV where you never hear from me. I just give you great fact to acknowledge.
T.J. Rives:
Give me some gravy. I like that. I might pick you up on that.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m adept at dumb facts that nobody knows and just off the cuff.
T.J. Rives:
Give me one. All right. You prompted us. We’re on a Q&A. Give me a dumb fact that nobody knows, unprompted, didn’t rehearse this. Give me a dumb fact.
Jeff Nadu:
So the capital of Cypress is Nicosia. There’s also a town in Italy called Nicosia.
T.J. Rives:
So there’s two Nicosias and only one of them is the capital of Cypress.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Now Cypress is an island off the coast of Greece. So there you go.
T.J. Rives:
But I’ve learned something on a dumb fact.
Jeff Nadu:
Now I might be-
T.J. Rives:
Now I’ll get you off the cuff. This is what you get from the big man here and I love that about him.
Jeff Nadu:
So let’s say maybe you’re doing a 10 bay back in years game and you find out that somebody’s parents are from Cypress. I could go, so capital of Cypress is-
T.J. Rives:
It’s a dumb fun fact. I didn’t know where he was going with that. He kept it clean. That’s good stuff. Good geography. Good world geography. It’s like a final jeopardy there Alex. Kyle Hunter, somebody is asking about Jacksonville, Stetson real quick in the chat. Neil wants to know about that game. Any thought about that game?
Kyle Hunter:
I looked at this game last night considering it under, but it was under 125 at the time. It’s under 123 and a half now. My concern is Jacksonville’s defense has been really good this year. But they have some really good three point defense. Sometimes that’s a bit of variance. There can be variance on the three point shot. Your three point defense can look really good and you’re not necessarily an amazing three point defense in the long run.
Kyle Hunter:
Also Jacksonville slowed the pace down consistently in the non-conference. They don’t really have to do that now against teams that are more similar is them. So 123 and a half is pretty low. As far as the side, I would lean toward Jacksonville hear lay in the four and a half. But I don’t love laying four and a half points with the total set that low. So just a slight lean for me.
T.J. Rives:
All right. Real quick a couple of other games here just on the Q&A. I know mid-major Matt on the show yesterday said, I would be curious what the Florida State Miami line is once it comes out. Later on Monday he met and it’s out now. For today the latest is Florida State laying six and a half with Miami and, Big man, the point there was will Miami have the let down on 72 hours after eating Duke. Will they have a letdown against a state rival in Florida State six and a half a little too rich, maybe for that, if you’re thinking upset here? I know you have no official play.
Kyle Hunter:
No. This would be one where I wouldn’t even have to think twice. I’d lay it 100%. They crushed Miami last year. And not that that’s any caveat because Miami is much better than they were last year. But this is a real good spot for FSU. It actually played pretty well lately won 304. We’ve kind of forgotten about Leonard Hamilton’s team, haven’t we? I mean, they had a long kind of I think getting into the swing of things, a lot of new players, but the dangerous thing about them this year is they actually have some point guards, which they haven’t had over the last couple of years.
Kyle Hunter:
And the biggest team in America I think this game kind of screams we know what to do here. Remember, I mean, Miami just beat Duke. I mean, we can make the case. I mean, Miami I know inside college basketball, which I listen to every couple of days with Nolander and Parish. I think Parish ranked Miami. I think there’s a good case for them to be ranked at this point. This is a stone called spot where why is Florida State a six, 16 standpoint favor here? This screams double digit win for Florida State. And I will say I’m actually a little disappointed in you T.J. that you didn’t ask to talk about Alabama Auburn because I’d love to.
T.J. Rives:
I was getting there if you would’ve wrapped up, if you would’ve landed the plane on the thoughts about Miami, Florida State. I was getting to Auburn and Alabama.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, look, I’d like to talk about that when we can. I think FSU and I’m sure Kyle, he would agree here. This just screams FSU.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah.
T.J. Rives:
Quick thought so we can talk Auburn, Alabama please for the big man on Miami, Florida State, Kyle Hunter.
Kyle Hunter:
I will definitely leave you time to talk about that game. But Miami has been shooting lights out, guys. I mean, 1.21 points for possession in the ACC. We think they’re going to keep that up? No way they’re going to keep that up. 42% from three point range.
Jeff Nadu:
Well said.
Kyle Hunter:
One of these games they’re going to have a bad shooting night and going to get blown out. It could definitely be tonight.
Jeff Nadu:
And you look at-
T.J. Rives:
Go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
… the perimeter defense real quick for FSU. I mean every player they have is 6.4 or bigger. The good thing about that when you’re playing, look, I zone the hell out of my… I really would. I challenged him to shoot up at over my big players. This is going to be-
T.J. Rives:
Especially after you watch the Duke game where, again, all through the second half, they’re playing man to man and Miami spread them out, got any shot they wanted, went to the hole, used screens, you got to zone them.
Jeff Nadu:
Exactly. And I’ll challenge Miami to beat me on the road like that. And I don’t think they’re going to do it. This screams run out game. Did anyone watch Colorado State, San Diego State? That’s what this screams to me where FSU wins 91, 68. They get crushed. Miami doesn’t make anything.
T.J. Rives:
And one other concern. I promise we’re going to Auburn and Alabama. Florida State came off the pause and they got blown away by Wake Forest. So you don’t know. Does that really matter? That was last week. Does that really matter here in this game? Let’s find out what happens in rivalry game with Miami coming up tonight. All right. Auburn at Alabama. So they are jonesing my buddy, Chris Stewart, I know this, he was at Mozou on the radio call for Bama and Missouri.
T.J. Rives:
That was a rough game because Missouri beat them. He then had travel that got screwed up on Sunday he ended up hitching a ride. As he told me, he had a very generous private donor that had numerous people going with him on a private plane to Indianapolis to work the football game in Indy from Alabama Monday.
T.J. Rives:
So he wrote updated the game. Now they lose the national title game. It didn’t look good. Now you turn right back around and fly back, I guess, on the private plane and Auburn comes to town and SCE showdown. Big man can’t wait to launch just for a second before we’re done on Auburn and Alabama because we got to get out of here in a minute or two.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. So little bit of a caveat here. I played and this is why this show is difficult occasionally. I played Alabama at 120 on the money line They were one and a half point favorites last night. They’re now north of 160 and they’re three point favorites. Every sharp gambler on earth at least the true sharp people have taken Alabama here. This is a stone cold Alabama or nothing. I get it. Ask yourself, why is Auburn a three point dog in this game? Answer that. Nobody knows, nobody answers, nobody has an idea because on paper they’re better than Alabama.
T.J. Rives:
Well, but Alabama back home angry, Alabama at home angry. Kyle, we buying that. It’s the reason why the line is three just real quick.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I mean, it’s a good spot for Alabama coming off a loss to Missouri, a Missouri team that’s not really that good, but shot really well. And Missouri also had 27 trips to the free throw line in that game against them. That meant quite a bit. Alabama is going to be up for a game against Auburn. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. And we know that Alabama at their best is very talented team. They have very high upsides. So that would be my lean as well.
T.J. Rives:
All right. Good enough. Let’s get back to our best bets because we’ve got to get out of here for a Tuesday edition of the show. Let’s take a look at what the guys have. Again, at USC game that Kyle is on with Stanford, Southern Cal. That is an afternoon game 2:00 Pacific, 5:00 Eastern Time. Jeff also on that as well. He is over the total of 140 in that matchup for that game. And then also Kyle has a play on the under on the Rutgers matchup with Penn State and then St. Bonaventure laying nine and a half.
T.J. Rives:
We actually have that graphic wrong. Let me just repeat here. Jeff is not on the USC Stanford game. He’s actually on the Northeastern, James Madison game. So let’s clarify. The overplay that Jeff has is James Madison hosting Northeastern. So we just want to get that straight there on the graphics. So Kyle is the only one with the play on the USC game. That is this afternoon. Guys, we got to roll here. Great job today. A lot of the discussion gave the fans a lot of help. Big Man, thank you. Kyle Hunter, thank you. Great job today, gentlemen.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you, guys.
Kyle Hunter:
Thank you.
T.J. Rives:
And we thank you for watching us on a Tuesday edition on the BetUS College Basketball Show. We’re back Wednesday at 1:00. Bye.
