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College Basketball Picks, Predictions and Best College Basketball Odds [Jan. 12]

College Basketball Odds Jan 12

T.J. Reeves:

Well, hello there and happy Wednesday, as we come aboard on another edition of the BetUS College Basketball Show. I’m T.J. Reeves. We’ve got our handicappers, the big man on campus, Jeff Nadu. Ian Cameron is also aboard, Bobano is aboard, here for the Wednesday program and much to get to. Action-packed, crazy games last night, including down goes USC in the afternoon. We talked a lot about that game. Big man, you were with us on Tuesday. Down goes number one, Baylor to Texas Tech at home, 21-game win streak, dating back to the national title win last year over with. And by the way, no more unbeaten teams left. We’re done, as of January the 12th, with any more unbeaten teams. How about that? So, boys, welcome in. Ian, first time we’ve had you on this week, there was no shortage of excitement last night in college basketball, for sure.

Ian Cameron:

No, there wasn’t. And how about the week for Texas Tech, so far? I mean, we talk about how they’ve been shorthanded as well, the last few games, and all you do is you come back, back to back games, beat Kansas, and then beat Baylor. Talk about impressive from the Red Raiders. I did not see that coming, I’ll be honest. I certainly didn’t see it coming last night, because I laid the 12 with Baylor, oops. But nevertheless, you look at it last night, just terrific defensive performance. Really, really gritty, gutsy team. Even, the game where I suffered a little bit of a bad push, if you will, on this show, with Iowa State minus four against Texas Tech. Tech got down big at half time, never gave up in that game, came back and made it interesting at the end. So, great win for them.

Ian Cameron:

Nice win for Stanford. USC was just not at all sharp yesterday, free throws, being missed, same problems the Trojans have had all year. So, that was fascinating. Auburn picks up a pretty big road win against Alabama last night. So, a lot of interesting results in college basketball picks. Iowa State takes Kansas right down to the wire, as TJ, also Berger’s team, I’m telling you remains undervalued. If not for a collapse in the second half against Oklahoma, Iowa State would be on one hell of a point spread run right now. They have been definitely an undervalued team all year.

T.J. Reeves:

Big man back to that USC/Stanford game that we spent some time on yesterday, talking about. You got to give Stanford a lot of credit, because they had not played again since the Hawaii tournament pre-Christmas December 23rd, and they were the better team down the stretch of that a game. Granted at home, and there were no fans there, so it was weird to watch. But, give me a thought on that, and how are things here as we get ready for a Wednesday card?

Jeff Nadu:

We have to remember, you’re not going to win every game. You’re going to have games. This is why these teams wend, 30 and five, or whatever it is. Baylor… Look, did I think they’d lose at home to Texas Tech? No, but I also had a thought that if McCullar played, I had probably some interest in maybe, feeling like they could hang in that game. They’re a good defensive team. They’re going to keep possessions low. And look, I think we just continue to see and we continue to see this throughout college sports, okay? There are a lot of really good teams in college basketball, just like they were college football, but last couple years, there’s just a lot more parody and that’s what we want. This year, I think it is a completely open in college hoops this year and that’s how it needs to be.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, I got to tell you, I went one-and-one on this show. I, from a personal betting online standpoint, I don’t think anything I played last night won. I mean, to be fair. I mean, outside of the one over that I had, I-

T.J. Reeves:

Right.

Jeff Nadu:

It seemed like everything that I thought would happen, went the total wrong way. I can’t really figure it out. Road teams, I don’t want to back, I’m sick of road teams.

T.J. Reeves:

Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Jeff Nadu:

Then, the one game that I actually really liked involving a home team, Auburn, it seems like Auburn and Wisconsin are just never going to lose again. So, I’m going to just probably not be against them anymore.

T.J. Reeves:

Boy, it has been a rough last, what? 72, 96 hours for Alabama to lose at Missouri in basketball.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah.

T.J. Reeves:

Then, the Tide losing the national title game. Georgia took it from them in the fourth quarter and now Auburn, their hated rival, comes into Tuscaloosa and played a fantastic game, including… How about this? This tells you how well they played defensively and they shot their free throws to your point, Ian. Auburn had one made field goal in the last eight minutes against Alabama and still won the game against a really good Alabama team. So, give them credit there as well. Kentucky also went on the road and looked impressive against Vanderbilt, for what that’s worth. So, we had a lot- [crosstalk 00:04:43].

Ian Cameron:

And it wouldn’t be my college basketball season without my 90th blown lead and collapse in the second half, that I’ve suffered with Pitt last night against Syracuse, that just fell apart in the second half. So, welcome to my season.

T.J. Reeves:

I understand, we’re going to try to get better the other day. As we always like to say, “Today’s a new, it’s the future.” Hopefully, Jeff got all of that out of his system though, as well for Tuesday. So, let’s get to the Wednesday stuff. First of all, our records for our handicappers. And again, as Jeff mentioned, he was one-and-one on the night for Tuesday night, that keeps him above 500. Kyle Hunter was also with us and was also one-and-one. You see Bobano’s record, he is ready to get back towards that 500 mark again. He’s like a machine gun about to unload here with some picks and with what we have here for this. Let’s begin though, with a game in the Southern conference. Again, we’ve talked about Wofford in particular, earlier, a couple of days ago on the show. We’re going right back to a game with Wofford and the Sanford Bulldogs, speaking of Alabama, Sanford in the Birmingham area. Sanford laying eight in this matchup and the big man on campus is going to start us off with an official play. What do you like and why?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, so I like the over in this game. I was a bit surprised that it was 145, to be quite fair. Look, at the end of the day, look, I know what Wofford did last game out. Didn’t play real well. But look, anytime you play UNC Greensboro, the game’s going to be low scoring, there’s not going to be any possessions. This, I think’s going to be a totally different basketball game. When you play Sanford, you have to understand that you’re going to have the tempo raised on you. And Wofford is very official, when we look at just them, I mean, this is an efficient basketball team. They’re great at the line. They’re good, in half court. I think they’re going to be able to score against Sanford. It’s always been a suspected issue for Sanford getting stops. They’re not a good defensive team. And again, they’re going to turn it up.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re going to go quick. This is a Wofford defense, that’s really struggled, really in all facets defensively. 312 in three point percentage, 288 in field goal percentage, per has the metrics. This has not been a good defense. These are two teams that really struggle to get stops together. You look at last season’s game between these two teams. Now, again, I think it’s problematic sometimes, when you look at last season, but you want to look, are these teams similar and they sure the hell are. Wofford 94, Sanford 84, is a very high scoring game. They scored 53 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. I think, this is another high scoring affair between two teams. Their figures are going to compliment each other well. Wofford’s efficient, Sanford’s fast. And they’re, I think somewhat, going to be somewhat efficient tonight. Neither defense gets a ton of stops. I like the over.

T.J. Reeves:

Okay. Ian, quickly a thought on this one, if no official play.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. I mean, Wofford played VMI. VMI’s a good offensive team, plays with tempo and Wofford again, slows it down. That’s the one thing, they’re pretty slow, pretty methodical, but what they lack in pace, they make up for in efficiency, which they are 82nd in the country in offensive efficiency. And they did play in over in that game against VMI. It was 80-73, got over the total 141 and a half. So, I have no arguments here with this over. In fact, in the SoCon tonight, I could make a case for the over, in a lot of these games. I like the ETSU firm and over a little bit, I think Chattanooga Carolina, Western Carolina, has a chance maybe, to go over the total as well. So, I think we’ll see points in some of these SoCon games and this is probably one of them as well.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. So, the official play belongs to the big man on campus. And again, he is taking the over for the team totals here for Wofford and for Sanford in the matchup tonight. Game number two, let’s go to the ACC intriguing, because the Duke Blue Devils are off of a loss on the weekend at home to Miami. Now, they travel about an hour away to the East to Winston, Salem out of the Raleigh Durham area. And they are laying six points against a Wake Forest Demon Deacon team, that’s off a big win over Florida State and has already gotten off to a good start this season, the total at 153 for this one tonight. Let’s go back to the big man on campus here. You and Ian both, were looking at this game. There’s a little line movement in this game, so we don’t have an official play on this one. What kind of Duke team are we going to see tonight? Did we look at Duke in the bounce back mode tonight, Jeff Nadu?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think you do. And for a couple reasons. First of all, this number opened four, four and a half. It was bet online up to six. And I think that’s the problematic point here. Look, I still think, and I think it may have been Ian that that asked about this game, I don’t normally bet these two teams, but I will say, I’m not going to say that Wake Forest is a fraud. I won’t say that, but they are. They haven’t played anybody and the teams that they have played, and when they stepped up in competition, they’ve lost. Look, I’ll give them some credit. Look, Florida State, that’s a good win, Virginia Tech solid win, Northwestern solid win. But, all these teams, particularly Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech’s either going to make threes, or not. And if you don’t make threes, you can blow them out of the building.

Jeff Nadu:

And I think that was the problematic. In that game, that’s what they did, I think. Virginia Tech made a ton of threes and blew them out. Or, they didn’t make a ton of threes, and Wake blew them out. I just think Duke’s a better team. I think this is where the rubber meets the road. Look, is Wake, and that stadium going to be on fire tonight? Maybe. But, again, this is that period where you’re off holiday and you don’t have students in the gym. So, that could be an issue. Duke’s off of a loss, a straight up loss. I think, Duke flexes their muscles here and says to Wake in a way, “Look, we’re going to slap in the face. You’re going to head back to the corner for a couple of hours. This is our conference, this is who we are. You’re the little brother in a way.”

Jeff Nadu:

Look, I’m happy with what Steve Forbes has done. I don’t think anyone thought he turn it around this quick. And look, I have all the love of the world for Steve Forbes. I saw him a picture of him and he referenced Sons of Anarchy the other day in one of his press conferences. And I’m a big fan of that show. So, I have some love for Steve after that. But, I think Duke takes care of business tonight and in a way, puts them back in their place a little bit.

T.J. Reeves:

Okay. Again, they have had some magic against Duke. And Duke is everybody’s national championship game, whenever they come in, especially in the ACC. Joel Coliseum, as it’s known. Ian, I know you were looking at this game, and then backed off an official play, but give me a thought anyway on Wake Forest hosting Duke.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I do have a small play on Wake here, actually. You know how I feel about Wake plus six, but the thought of going against Duke off the loss against Miami as an official play on this show, was not something I was all that thrilled about doing. You would expect Duke to really answer back well. And then, you look last year, the head to head match-ups, and it was Forbes first year at Wake last year against Duke and double digit losses in both games for Wake. So, that definitely pumped the brakes for me on making Wake official. That being said, there’s issues with Duke, all right. They didn’t play well against Georgia Tech, that was a pretty bad loss against Miami. Miami’s a scrappy team, you’ve got to be ready to play Miami. They’ve always been that way under Jimmy Larrañaga. And look, they shot, they were good on the boards, but offensively, not one of their better games. In Miami, certainly shot to the ball, got to the free throw line as well, in that game.

Ian Cameron:

That definitely hurt Duke. But, Coach K sounding the excuse machine already. You got to love Coach K, right? It’s never, “We got to play better.” Or, “We got to do things better.” It’s “Oh, we’re out. The COVID pause has really hurt us here. Oh, we’re not in shape yet. Oh, the COVID pause has really got us out of our rhythm, out of our flow and we’re not in the shape we need to be.” How about you just say your team stunk that night? Wouldn’t it be nice to hear that every now, and then? Instead of, “Oh, cry me a river.”

Ian Cameron:

Play that violin, play that violin Coach K, let’s hear it. The excuse machine once again. But look, he’s concerned obviously, about the way his team has played and the lack of being in sync that they have been, since they’ve returned from their pause. So, that’s a concern a little bit for me now, especially laying six now, with the number having gone up like this. So, this is more of me having… I’ve had some success with Wake, I’ve cashed more than a few tickets with them this year in spots. I am on them tonight. It’s just not going to be an official play. I am worried that if Duke brings it and we see that A game, it might be too much for Wake to handle.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, not an official play. I’ll defend Coach K to this extent. He did compliment Miami and Jim Larrañaga for outplaying them at the end of the game. And Coach K has done more for the attention around college basketball and the love-hate and building Duke up. With that, the game does owe him a bunch with that. Because again, people will watch this game tonight just to hate Duke. I mean, Nadu will watch this game for five minutes, just to hate on Duke tonight, that’s my point.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, I’ll be honest. Here’s the thing. And this is where society fails to understand things. When you don’t like something, what you do, is you don’t watch it. I will not watch- [crosstalk 00:13:33].

T.J. Reeves:

By and large, that’s not true. The Dallas Cowboys have the biggest TV [crosstalk 00:13:36] audience, and it’s not because everybody loves them. It’s because a lot of people hate them. Some people turn it off, but most they want to see them lose Nadu.

Jeff Nadu:

I think Banchero’s terrific, okay?

T.J. Reeves:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t hate the players. I think Coach K’s best years are behind him and all he does is whine nowadays. Move on and go do something else. I mean-

T.J. Reeves:

It is the Swan song season-

Ian Cameron:

You got to wonder too, if Duke people have just… It’s, “We’re sick of Duke-itis, in college basketball.” This game tonight, it’s not on any of the ESPN networks. They’ve moved it down to the ACC network.

T.J. Reeves:

Right.

Ian Cameron:

It makes you wonder that people just getting sick of watching Duke and Coach K, who knows? But, that’s bizarre to see a Duke game- [crosstalk 00:14:17].

T.J. Reeves:

But, some of it is they want people to get the ACC network, stick the Duke games on there and make them scream and holler for the ACC network. All right, so good enough, no official play on this game, but we gave you a lot of insight into that one tonight, with Wake Forest and Duke as the road favorite. Moving on, American conference game makes the slate here for a Wednesday show. This is Wichita State hosting, a Tulane team that has been a bit of a surprise early in this conference. We’ll get into that in the conversation. Wichita State is a nine and a half point favorite. The total at 138.5. Bobano, we’re coming back to you, Ian Cameron, what do you like here and why?

Ian Cameron:

This number’s baffling to me. I can’t explain how Tulane can be getting this many points, with what they’ve done so far in AAC conference play. Look what they’ve done. I mean, they had an outright upsetted win at home against Memphis, 85-84. They beat a very solid Cincinnati team outright on the road as road dogs, 68-60. Coming off a blowout win at home against South Florida. The only loss was an overtime loss against East Carolina, and you could argue that Tulane coughed it up in the final minute, allowing that game to get into overtime. One of my favorite coaches, Jeff talked about affinity for Steve Forbes, which I have as well. I have that same affinity for Ron Hunter here at Tulane. It’s a guy that, going back to Georgia State’s, done a great job coaching in college basketball.

Ian Cameron:

I like that this team plays very, very solid on the defensive end of the basketball court. They’ve dug in at that end, especially lately, played better. You look at them offensively, they’ve got Jaylen Forbes playing at a high level this year for the Tulane Green Wave, so far this year. That has helped them on the offensive end of the basketball court, no question about that. 15 points per game, Jaylen cook 19.4 points per game, very steady. They can frustrate a team like Wichita State, who to be honest with you guys, they’re not a good offensive team. They really have not been that all season, for most part. They’ve had little glimpses here and there. They can score when they play Alcorn State or Prairie View, like what they did when they put up 82 in the one game, 102 in the other. But, you get them up there against a solid team and especially a solid defensive team, North Texas, terrific defensive team, they shoot 19 to 52.

Ian Cameron:

They play Memphis who, look Memphis and TJ, your Tigers, they’re erratic, they’re up and down, but they don’t always play shutdown defense, or lock you down. And Wichita only scored 64 against them, 18 of 61. Houston, of course, you know a lot of teams are going to struggle to score against them. 23 to 57 from the floor in that game. They’ve been brutal at home, against the spread, two and seven at home this year, against the number. You look at last year when these teams played twice. Yeah, Wichita won both games, but both of them by eight point margins, less than this point spread. I’m just a little bit baffled how Wichita with their struggles and Tulane, obviously playing better than people thought. Maybe, bettering expectations. I’m baffled Wichita’s laying this much, I’m taking the nine and a half with Tulane.

T.J. Reeves:

He makes a compelling case, Jeff Nadu here and Ron Hunter. Again, I got the privilege of working three conference tournament championship wins by Georgia state in New Orleans for Tune In on national radio. Over the course of the last seven, eight years, they won that tournament three times actually, in five years in New Orleans. He decided, “Hey, I love new Orleans. I’m going to stick around in New Orleans and be the Tulane coach.” And they are playing better. And it is a large number for them as a road dog here.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, he’s done a real good job. I mean, I liked him at Georgia State, like him here. Look, there’s not a lot of high-level talent on this team, okay? But, as he alluded to, I mean, defensively, they’ve been solid. Offensively, they do a lot. And do they check the system, as a dog to stay in a game? Yeah, they don’t turn it over, they get to the line, they make their free-throws and they knock down the three ball. Now look, I’m going to tell you right now, they’re going to struggle tonight. This is a really good defense, this is a tough team under Isaac Brown. They are really good on that end of the ball. I think my big worry for Wichita, if I’m Tulane tonight, is this is not a real good rebounding team in Tulane. If they get just destroyed on the glass, this could be curtains for them, and that could be where they lose by double digits.

Jeff Nadu:

I got to be fair 138.5 at BetUS, that seemed a bit high to me. I thought this was, maybe 69, 62, 72, 63, something like that. I think this is a lower scoring game. I think it gets at worst to 135. I thought 138.5 seemed a bit high to me.

T.J. Reeves:

Interesting.

Jeff Nadu:

I guess, if this is a whistle show, which it could be, I mean, both these teams are adept at getting to the line. This could find its way over, but I think, if you’re Ian, the only worry I would have, would be one thing that Witchita always does really well, is hit the glass. Particularly, on the offensive glass. This is not a real big Tulane group. And you have some kids, Ricky Council, Udeze, some of those kids down low are really, really good rebounders. But yeah, I like the play, it checks the boxes for me. I lean under as well.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. So, the official play again is Ian Cameron’s and he is on the Green Wave of Tulane and getting the points in this match up. We move right along. We’re going to move quickly here. And we are going to have some time for a little Q&A in a little bit. But, first let’s get to our next one. This is a showdown between Colorado State and Utah State. Colorado State’s unbeaten season went up in smoke in a blowout loss, really, a 20-point loss to San Diego State this weekend. The big man’s been talking about that early on in the week on this show. So, the Rams of Colorado State in Fort Collins are back at it tonight and a home favorite with a total of 149.5. Again, back to Ian for an official play in this game. What do you have, sir?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, this is a Colorado State team that, you could sense it coming. They were slight underdogs against San Diego State. And the one thing about the Rams, even though I love this team and Niko Medved as a coach, is that schedule was very light going into that game for the Rams. And San Diego State definitely, was too much for them and they ended up blowing them out 79-49. This is your just, classic bounce back spot for me, for Colorado State. They have a terrific home court. They’ve been awesome at home all year. And I lost enough times with Utah State on the road this year, to know I’m not ready to trust the Aggies in this spot. No way, no how, you see what Utah State’s done on the road. They got blown out by double digits at BYU. They made it interesting in the second half, but they were trailing most of that game.

Ian Cameron:

They lose somehow at Air Force as 13-point favorites, 49-47. They just barely escaped New Mexico, 90 to 87 in the pit, over the weekend. And we saw New Mexico last night against UNLV, that was a wild overtime game. And New Mexico didn’t have a lot in the tank last night against UNLV, following that big overtime game. I think, you could see the same thing happen here for Utah State. The Rams, they’ve been just crushing teams at home all season long. And I think they’re probably walking, Utah State’s, just wrong place, wrong time here, in my opinion. Let’s not forget, St. Mary’s is a pretty solid basketball team. Here on this home floor, Colorado State beat them 74 to 58. So, I think it’s a bounce back situation here for Colorado State. Number’s not as good now as it was initially, I laid 4.5, I think it’s six now. I still endorse the Rams though.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, we’ll get the big man’s thought on this in a second. But, I’m just thinking of this. I have done a game in Fort Collins at Colorado State. And I don’t know if either one of you are movie buffs, or sports movie buffs, but there was a phenomenal movie at the end of the 1970s with Robby Benson as the basketball player called one-on-one, where he’s a high school star from a small high school. And he now has to move up and play at a fictitious-like Western college, or something. And he can’t really handle college life and the pressure of the game, and the whole bit. The movie was filmed in Fort Collins, Colorado. They filmed the whole movie there and you’ll see the Colorado State gym, that is still the gym today, in that movie. Love that movie, go back and watch if you’re a basketball fan, I won’t ruin the ending. There’s a love interest too, for Robby Benson. It made him as an actor, by the way. Filmed at Colorado State.

T.J. Reeves:

Yesterday, Nadu is giving us the capital of Cypress as a fun fact. I’m just giving you a little movie fun fact about Colorado State and their gym in Fort Collins. Then, Bobano. You’re not in the long [crosstalk 00:22:39] like you know about one-on-one, right?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah.

T.J. Reeves:

Yeah, there’s no doubt. All right, Jeff Nadu, any quick thought here on Colorado State and a bounce back situation back at home after being beaten badly.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, TJ, no offense, but we’re not 55, like you are. We haven’t seen that movie.

T.J. Reeves:

I’m just giving you a quick thing to go catch up and watch on.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I actually will watch that, because it sounds actually good, I…

PART 1 OF 4 ENDS [00:23:04]

Jeff Nadu:

We’ll watch that because it sounds actually good, I guess. I mean, I like sports-

T.J. Reeves:

Believe me, you will love the ending. How it ends with Robby Benson and the iron-fisted coach, it does not disappoint. But Bono, yes, you will love the ending.

Jeff Nadu:

I’ll take your word for it.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Fair enough.

Jeff Nadu:

As far as this game, yeah, look, it should be a bounce back spot for CSU. That was disgraceful, what they did on Saturday. I don’t know what that was.

Ian Cameron:

I think they’re better than that, but it was wrong.

Jeff Nadu:

No, they are. And look, they had not played much of a schedule. Look, if you know anything about San Diego State, that’s not a team you want to play off of a flimsy schedule. Yeah, I don’t have much issue. My thought on this game, just being honest and I love Ian, it felt close to me but I think if I’m leaning on a side, I would lean on Colorado State winning by more than six as opposed to I want to take Utah State here. You got to figure Colorado State is probably pissed off a little bit. I think offensively, they’re going to create some issues for Utah State. They’re just really good in the pick and roll. I mean, Roddy’s a really good player. I think they’re just better than Utah State.

Jeff Nadu:

And look, I’ve been disappointed with Utah State. They don’t have what I thought they’d have this year. I thought they’d be a little bit more dynamic. I go back to that game against St. Mary’s. I’m just irritated from them on. They didn’t beat BYU. Don’t have much of a schedule, and beat Oklahoma, that’s about it. But yeah, I think Colorado State probably takes care of business tonight. Maybe the over. I mean, one thing about Colorado State, obviously a hyper offensive team, pretty quick. Utah State’s actually been quite fast as well, and they’re very efficient. So I think I’d probably throw all the side stuff out and just maybe look at a total here and assume that this one is first to 75 wins.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Good enough. Let’s lock it in for Ian Cameron. He’s got another play on a Wednesday and this one is Colorado State and he’s laying the six as the home favorite in that one. Moving right along, let’s go to the Big Ten where Maryland and Northwestern are two teams that are trying to get their conference season on track. Northwestern, at home in Evanston, Illinois, is laying five and a half here against Maryland. The over/under at 140, and I think Ian might be interested in this total. Tell me more about what stands out about this Big Ten game, please.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. I mean, when you look at this match up here, I mean, they played 67-61, these two teams in the previous meeting in December and it stayed under the total. But there were some really, really bad shooting numbers for both of these teams, for two teams that have actually shot the ball a lot better the last five games. And that was 128 points in that game. What I’m banking on here is just much better shooting on both sides. And both of these teams have been much better offensively of late. You look at Northwestern, shot the ball decently, really well actually their last two games against Penn State and Ohio State. 70 points, 87 in that road loss against Ohio State over the weekend. The last two games have gone over the total. Maryland, since Danny Manning’s taken over as the interim coach after Mark Turgeon departed, they’ve actually gone and seen their possession numbers just go up a little bit.

Ian Cameron:

So they’re playing with little bit more pace, a little bit… Which isn’t that surprising because if you remember with Danny Manning at Wake, that was a bit of an uptempo team there when he coached there. So they’re starting to pick up their pace numbers just a little bit. They’ve trended over the total, four, one and one to the over in their last five games. So yeah, you had bad shooting numbers in the first meeting, but boy-oh-boy, the possession numbers were still, I think, mid-70s in terms of possessions. There was still a decent amount of pace and tempo in that game.

Ian Cameron:

So yeah, you had a low scoring first game, but both of these teams, I think, are in a better place offensively right now, both the Terrapins and the Wildcats. Maryland’s just had a little bit of an uptick in their tempo. Northwestern’s probably in their best offensive rhythm of the season. So I figured at 140, we’re going to see a little bit of a different result tonight compared to that first head-to-head meeting earlier this season. And by the way, in terms of pace, both of these teams for the season have actually seen their tempo numbers increase just a little bit. So Maryland and Northwestern for me, I’m going to go over 140.

T.J. Reeves:

Big man, a quick thought if no official play?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m about done with Maryland. I gave them the benefit of the doubt the other night that they were in a terrific spot at home against Wisconsin. I mean, at one point, they were down 28-9, I think. And then, look, they fought their way back, but just didn’t have enough to get up and over. I actually locked out and got a push out of it. But yeah, I’m done with them. I actually like Northwestern. I think they’re a pretty solid team. I think they’re just better than Maryland in this spot. I’ve been disappointed with the Fatts Russell-Qudus Wahab duo. They’ve been good, not been great. Northwestern, there was struggle in the last couple, a flippy game. I think Ian’s probably on the right side here. 140 seemed… that’s the number, right? 140?

T.J. Reeves:

Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Jeff Nadu:

That seemed a bit low. I thought both teams will probably get to 70 here. Reminds me of the game last night that I had the over with those two teams. Just seemed like it was a bit low. I think the one thing about Maryland that I don’t love is defensively. I thought they were really beaten up against Wisconsin at times. So yeah, I like the sentiment. I think this is a good one. Probably, I think, the best one Ian’s put out. Not that he doesn’t put out good stuff, but I think this is a good one.

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. 123 and 187 are your tempo numbers overall for both of these teams, which is pretty… that’s above average. They don’t play blazing fast, Northwestern or Maryland, but they play above average. They’re both pretty solid in terms of efficiency, offensively that’s for sure. And you’re right, you’re only talking 140 here when it comes to this total, which is probably doable. And like we’ve seen, Northwestern, they’ve gone well over this number here in the last couple of games.

T.J. Reeves:

Let’s lock it in officially again for Ian. He’s on quite the roll right here with the picks on the Wednesday show. He’s on the over for the Maryland-Northwestern game coming on Wednesday night. Let’s swing to the ACC again. Back to the ACC. In fact, for a couple of more plays here, the next game up on the schedule is NC State and Louisville at the Downtown Kentucky KFC Yum Center. Louisville favored by six and a half. Our total is 147 and a half in this match up. A lot of people are wondering, how many bids is the ACC going to get in the NCAA Tournament? Can either one of these teams maybe get into the picture over the next few weeks or not? Ian Cameron, we’re back to you, you have another play on another ACC game. What’s up?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. It’s Louisville on the schedule. It’s Ian Cameron on the BetUS College Basketball Show. So you know what we’re doing here, we’re fading Louisville. Of course, we’ve done that a lot this season and it’s been successful. This has been actually… this is one of the things that has been very, very nice to me this year, is going against this, to be honest, to me, overrated, overvalued Louisville team. It’s nowhere close to the teams we’ve seen in years past. They’re nowhere close to the Jordan Nwora, frigging Peyton Siva. Go on down the list of all these Louisville teams in years past, all the way back to Pitino coaching. It’s just not that same team. This year, they lost at Florida State over the weekend, 79-70. I cashed a ticket with the Pitt Panthers, I believe, the last time I was on this show, it was last week, Pitt, 12 and a half point dogs and they ended up losing by three wire-to-wire point spread cover. There’s just no evidence of Louisville winning games by margin.

Ian Cameron:

Look at these results in ACC play, beat Wake by four, beat Georgia Tech by three, beat Pitt by three. They also lose to Western Kentucky, lose to DePaul, lose to Florida State. I mean, winning by margin has just not happened. Not happened at all for Louisville. And you have NC State coming off a frustrating 70 to 65 loss to Clemson at home over the weekend, Kevin Keatts was saying that he felt this team just screwed up at the end of the game too much. That that was a winnable game if they just have better cleaner execution down the stretch, which is probably right about. I think you’re going to see a better performance from them. They’ve struggled here lately, three of their last four losses. It’s not like we’re back in a team that’s in great form, NC State, but two point loss at home to Florida State. They did beat Virginia Tech, which an impressive win on the road. And of course, the tough loss by five against Clemson.

Ian Cameron:

But the common thread is all these games, they were competitive. The Florida State game, the Clemson game, they’ve already played Louisville once this year at NC State. It was a five point game, Louisville won, 73-68. So you got an in-season revenge angle on the side of the Wolf Pack here in this game, team that just isn’t winning by margin right now, Louisville. So give me the points here, plus six and a half, NC State.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. And I know we’re rolling along with Ian making predictions. I promise the big man has got another official play coming, but it’s not in this game. Do you have a quick comment here on NC State at Louisville?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I have no issue not betting on Louisville to win by margin. I mean, who the hell wants to bet on Louisville to win by margin? Yes, he said they don’t. I mean, in conference, the three wins they have have come by close, or four wins. I mean, even against the NC State, that was a close game the last time these two teams played. Kevin Keatts’ teams always provide you a little bit of a tough matchup. They’re not going to turn the ball over much. They’re going to obviously turn the screws on you and try to get you to turn it over. Look, I’m not in love. It’s hard to bet a team to me that’s just… They don’t seem to have that edge in winning a game. I don’t think Louisville will lose this game, okay? It’s really going to be a question of, do we at them on the right night where…? It’s hard to beat a team twice, and I get his angle here, but I think NC State’s a bad team personally, so I don’t want to bet on them.

Jeff Nadu:

I think there’s a lot more ceiling for Louisville as opposed to NC State. But I think we have to probably understand at this point, this is not a real good NC State team. Could they be a tough team occasionally? Yeah. Are we going to have rose-colored glasses because they hung around the first time it gets Louisville? Probably. And I know Ian’s not a big Louisville guy, and he has success fading them and that’s a good idea because they don’t cover. So I get it. I just think NC State, I don’t know how good a team they are. I think it’s been evident lately. Probably not.

T.J. Reeves:

And Ian has-

Ian Cameron:

Too much of an ask for Seabron and Hellems. I mean, there’s a lot of times they don’t get much outside of those two guys. So that’s got to change for NC State moving forward. Hopefully, tonight, one of those nights, they play well, maybe get someone else stepping up for them as well.

T.J. Reeves:

Get some confidence maybe early on in the game as the official play. Ian Cameron does believe that NC State will play with confidence and he will take them and the points here in this situation. More of a fade against Louisville, as he says, for the reasons that he laid out. Let’s stay in the ACC. I promise we’ll get into a Q&A question if we have time here towards the end of the show. These guys have a lot of plays though. And that is Virginia Tech and Virginia, the Cavaliers. I hear a one and a half point favorite at home in Charlottesville. Look at that total at 117 and a half. So all of this is juicy. Again, it’s Ian Cameron. It’s, again, an ACC game we’re talking about. What is the play here, Ian?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, this is me going to… It’s been a rough go for Mike Young and his Virginia Tech team. There’s no question. I mean, they’ve lost three of their last four at Dayton. They lose by 11 at Duke. And that was a tough one as I backed them in that game, and last minute, they failed to cover. That was another close loss there. NC State, 68-63. They had a pause. They did not play well. They were out of sync, but now they’ve had over a week to practice, a week to prepare for Virginia. That’s going to help. And to me, this is not a bad matchup for the Hokies. Even though they’re struggling, they’ve struggled with athleticism. They’ve struggled with teams that can get out and run, teams that can score, teams that can fill it up. Look at the losses, Duke in particular.

Ian Cameron:

Virginia just cannot buy a basket consistently. That’s been a big problem for Tony Bennett’s team this year. Offensively, it’s been pretty bad at times losing to Clemson 67-50. I know they were better offensively in the road winds against Syracuse and Clemson, but couldn’t get anything going against North Carolina over the weekend. They get blown out 74-58. And to be honest with you, we talked about the struggles of Louisville covering numbers and at home. And Wichita stayed as well earlier in the show talking about their struggles at home. Virginia’s just two and six against the spread at home this year. So they’ve really had trouble. I think this is a winnable matchup.

Ian Cameron:

Again, Virginia Tech’s not very deep here, but I think this is a situation where they’re going to be comfortable. A lot of times when they play teams that want to speed them up, they get in trouble. You’re not going to see that with Virginia because they aren’t changing the way they play for anybody. You’re going to see the pack line defense. You’re going to see a slow pace, snail pace game on both sides. Very much this game will be played in the half court when either team has the basketball. And I think in a game like this, it’s much more of a winnable matchup and a better matchup in my opinion, for Virginia Tech and they beat Virginia handily last year in the only meeting head-to-head. So small underdog number. I think the Hokies went out right. So I’m going to take them plus one and a half.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Battle in Virginia there. Tony Bennett’s team always known for defense, low scoring, etc. Big Man, any quick thought here on this latest ACC game that we’re discussing for a Wednesday?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, this is a total. Obviously, people will laugh at a total like this, but it’s Virginia. This is the totals they throw out there. I will say I threw a little bit on the over in this game, I got to be honest. I think both teams could have some success on offense. I mean, it’s really just simple. There are two things that need to happen for this game to go over. Virginia needs to make threes, which they can, 39% from three. This is not as we know, if you know their pack line, the way they defend, the three point line is going to be there for you. If you can make threes, you can beat Virginia. It’s pretty simple. What they’re going to do is wall off the paint and make it really difficult for you to score highly efficient shot.

Jeff Nadu:

But for Virginia Tech, a three is a highly efficient shot. They want to shoot a ton of threes. Again, though, they don’t make them. Then we’ve talked about the volatility that the Hokies can have. I have no interest in ever playing them in a flip because, again, I’m not putting a lot of money into Virginia Tech because they’re really just volatile with how they shoot. When you look at Virginia, the mover blocker offense is prototypically an offense that scores near the rim, jump shots, coming off screens and things of that nature. I don’t think Virginia’s real adept at stopping teams in half court either. So I think there’s past offense here. It’s hard to get involved because both tempos are very slow. I mean, very. You’re going to need a highly efficient game here, but when you get into the 117s, you just need both to get high 50s, low 60. I mean, that’s not a real hard thing to do in college hoops, but I’ll let Ian have fun with this one. Look, I love Ian, but I got to be honest betting on this game is a disaster.

Ian Cameron:

Say this, in spite of… And look, Virginia Tech’s had some wretched three point shooting nights. In spite of some of those, they’re still 15, three point percentage in the country.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You’re just banking on the fact that they… And look, it’s not a bad thought because they’re very good from three.

Ian Cameron:

Virginia is preferred because of the way they play defense, the pack line, where they pack the paint. Yep.

T.J. Reeves:

Fair to say, Ian, you’re not wanting to see a first half in the 30s where both these teams are in the 30s because then an under overplay is in big trouble on this at only 117, but you don’t believe it’s going to be there. It’s going to be maybe one team in the 30s or low 30s and the other team probably in the 20s because that’s the way Virginia plays. And they played a couple of games where they’ve only gotten into 50 points themselves. That’s why the total is this low, right guys, one more time?

Ian Cameron:

It is. And it’s difficult for me to bet an under sub 120s, it. It makes sense that this is sub 120s but to Jeff’s point being interested in the over, I would always look to find a way to bet a total over when it’s below 120. I’d try to find a way. Doesn’t mean I will find a way, but I would at least try to.

T.J. Reeves:

The official play though for Ian is Virginia Tech as the road team here, again, he’s on the side of several of these games including ACC road teams and it is Virginia Tech and the point and a half. Again, we’ll get to your Q&A. We’ve got time for a couple of those in just a moment, one more game on our busy Wednesday docket. And out of all the games that are out there, look at this, Dixie State and Cal Baptist make the show. And we have talked about both of these teams earlier in the show. The Baptists are laying eight and a half, the total is 151, and the big man on campus is all about it. Why?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, because Cal Baptist is at home and this team at home has been a monster, 81 points a game this year in, I think, 9 home games. They’ve been really fun at this place. And if you could believe it, I’ve actually watched some games involving Cal Baptist at home. They get a great crowd out there. This is a fun team that plays a real fun brand of offense that is pretty damn efficient. This team, I think, averages mid-70s per game. But as I said at home, just been a much different team. Look, they went on the road Saturday and lost in Chicago. Again, Chicago State, not something you see often. Chicago State is not a good team, but now that they’re back at home, this is the kind of team I want to face off of a loss.

Jeff Nadu:

Dixie State is a disaster on defense, a disaster. And what they do, guys, there are two things they don’t do well when you play defense. They don’t guard, they foul a lot, and they play fast. They let you get into your offense and do what you want to do, which is not good. So just to put this into perspective, they give up 76 points a game. You look at some of the schedule they’ve played, they played something called Bethesda twice, St. Catherine, I don’t know what that is. They played something called the American Indian. I don’t know if they just grabbed 10 really great Indian basketball players and played them, I don’t know.

T.J. Reeves:

At least a tribe probably. Maybe the tribe. I don’t know anything about St. Catherine. We got to look it up. I don’t know anything about that either. But your point is they’re all scoring on Dixie State.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, yeah, but they’re also… the competition has not been good. They played Texas State, Cal Northridge. They have played a couple. I mean, played Gonzaga, gave up 97. But the truth is I think they’re going to just concede to just a really good offense here. And at home, Cal Baptist has been a good team. They take a lot of good shots. I think they’re going to be able to get into their offense tonight. I kind of had the mid-80s in this game. And I just think if they can get to their average here, we’re going to have some success. So for me, Cal Baptist team total, over 80, I’m in. Give me them tonight.

T.J. Reeves:

Ian, give me 20 seconds on this because we got much more to get to and we got to get out of here. Anything else about Dixie State, Cal Baptist?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah. I mean, you look at their home games and to Jeff’s point, 89, 84, 96 the last three. They average 81.8 points per game on the season, Cal Baptist, on their home floor. If they hit their average tonight, Jeff’s going to hit his team total. So makes sense to me.

T.J. Reeves:

Lock it in for the big man on campus. He’s on the Baptist and I am one of us. So I can talk about the Baptist. Again, we’re not sure if they pass the offering plate or not at some point during the game or not, but he is going with the team total. They’re over 80 for Cal Baptist tonight. Time for couple of them quickly on questions from the folks that are watching us live in the 1:00 Eastern time hour. Mario wants to know the under play for TCU-Kansas State out of the big 12. Again, the big 12 has been very competitive with a lot of hard fought games. TCU-Kansas State under, anybody want to touch the topic there? What about it guys?

Jeff Nadu:

I think over the years, K State has been a good under bet. They haven’t had a ton of offensive talent, but I’m not going to say they do this either, but they’ve been better offensively. I would look into what’s up with them as far as COVID stuff. I know they had some issues last week. Mike McGuirl didn’t play Saturday, but Markquis Nowell gives them, I think, a different dynamic offensively where I think they’re a bit better. This is kind of a middling two teams in the big 12. I don’t have much interest in this game. I think it’s one of those just real tough spots that I don’t have much on.

Ian Cameron:

I actually lean the other way slightly, both teams trending over the last few games. You look at TCU, they’ve trended over, Kansas State, the over. The one pit of hesitancy I have is the under has been dominant in the head-to-head, TCU and Kansas State. But what Jeff said’s true. I mean, I think both of these teams are a little bit better offensively than we’ve seen in the past. So I prefer a current form as opposed to what we’ve seen a year ago, two years ago. So I’d actually lean the over here.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Another viewer that is watching us, I’ll get the name, it is Will says, “Thoughts on LSU-Florida tonight in Gainesville with LSU looking fantastic off the Tennessee win validating the Kentucky win with the Tennessee win. Florida with a loss to Auburn, a loss to Alabama at home. Any thought here, guys, on this one tonight? The Gators are actually still favored over LSU by two and a half. Any quick thought here? No official play.”

Jeff Nadu:

I’m giving one last chance to Mike Wayne. I’m doing it one more time. It’s a numbers thing that just it makes sense here. Look, I think with Pinson out, I think the bottom could fall out defensively for LSU. I think we could revert back to what they were last season. And I’ll be honest, I think the over could be a real good bet here. I really do. You have a Florida team who I think is going to be able to get what they want. Pinson just, again, really is a great defender for them. Not having him is a big loss. And I think LSU will score. I think both teams kind of turn up the tempo here. I’ve said before Mike White’s teams need to play fast. That’s where they’re the best. So yeah. Maybe I think for me, maybe you just stay away from this side. I want to take Florida just because at home, I think it’s one of those spots, but I’m feeling like this is an Auburn-Alabama spot last night where you just turn it up and this one gets into the 160s or something.

T.J. Reeves:

Ian, real quick, anything? LSU-Florida?

Ian Cameron:

Yeah, I agree with the over there. I have a small bet on LSU, I have to admit. I mean, they’ve convinced me that they’re playing pretty well right now. The Pinson loss is significant. I’m not ready to buy Florida to beat anybody good. I mean, we’ve just seen it time and time again, and they had those opportunities that fell by the wayside. Florida’s been actually trending over. You look at the last few games, they’ve gone over. Pinson…

PART 2 OF 4 ENDS [00:46:04]

Ian Cameron:

… trending over. You look at the last few games they’ve gone over. Pinson kind of reminds me of VanVleet, what he’s doing in the NBA right now with the Raptors. He’s so valuable at both ends of the floor. Same with Pinson. Pinson’s just so good defensively. He can score, but man, his defensive contributions are every bit as valuable to LSU, if not even more valuable, so-

Jeff Nadu:

I’m a-

Ian Cameron:

Total could find its way over.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to just say this now. BetUS right now, I’m blown away quite frankly. Why in God’s green earth is this number 137 and a half? I mean, look, I know LSU is a great defensive team, but 137 and a half?

T.J. Reeves:

The all over the over.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. That’s almost weird to me. That blows me away. I think-

T.J. Reeves:

But maybe the injury that you’re talking about, Florida at the bowl-

Jeff Nadu:

The injury makes the total even more interesting [crosstalk 00:46:50] to know. What a wild number.

T.J. Reeves:

Yep. All right. We’ll keep an eye on that one for tonight. We got to go. One more viewer says “Hey, the Fordham Duquesne line swung now to a two point favorite for Duquesne. Do we have any explanation? Do you guys have any explanation? Is there an injury? Is there a COVID situation? Cause Fordham was apparently favored last night in a game.

Jeff Nadu:

I love the listeners, but some of these games they’ve asked about today are ratchet.

Ian Cameron:

Erratic teams. Both of them, Duquesne and Fordham. Lean over though in that game. I still think Fordham can find its way to some overs. The La Salle game I lost an over with them. That was La Salle. La Salle just was horrible offensively in that game. You got to think Duquesne can do a little bit better. So if I were to bet it, I’d look, I think it’s 135, that total. That’s what I’d look at betting there.

T.J. Reeves:

Okay, good enough on that. Let’s get to the games that we are on. And again, there’s a bunch of them. I won’t go over all of them that you see on the screen, particularly from Ian, although he’s got a lot of under dogs tonight and again for Jeff, he’s got an over total in the Wofford Samford game and he’s on the team total there with Cal Baptist late night tonight. And again, it’s a night that has Duke in action. It’s a night that has Michigan state in action. We mentioned Florida, LSU. I’m going to probably leave something else out on the role called Xavier Villanova. Great games tonight guys, as we come back, one more time here. I know conference play in full swing. We’re anxious to watch all of it tonight, right boys?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m just going to continue to say this. The loss of Pinson is huge, huge. He is such a great player on both sides of the court. He really is. That’s a big, big loss for them.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Ian, anything in closing?

Ian Cameron:

It’s a great night of basketball. There’s a lot of interesting games, but make sure you join us tomorrow because we’ve got mid-major Thursday. There’s a lot of mid-major conferences that take over Thursday’s action. So join us for that tomorrow and good luck with your bets tonight.

T.J. Reeves:

Excellent tease there. We’re here weekdays at one Eastern Monday through Friday for the duration all the way through the month of March. Cannot wait for that to get here. We thank you for Jeff Nadu, for Ian Cameron. I’m TJ Rives for all of us at BetUS. Thank you for watching the Wednesday College Hoop Show.

Ian Cameron:

Good luck everybody.

T.J. Reeves:

Because you just can’t get enough of us. We’re back for a Tuesday edition of the BetUS College Basketball Show. I am merely TJ Rives. Our handicappers are back aboard the Big Man On Campus, Jeff Nadu. Kyle Hunter also back with us on a Tuesday. Guys, good to be with both of you. And unlike a Monday card that did not have a ton to choose from, man, there is no shortage of what we have coming up tonight. We’re eager for all of it. Kyle, it’s your first time with us this week. I see you rocking the Bengals hat. Nadu and I are currently separated by distance and graphically here on the show because he’s Eagles, I’m Buccaneers, playoff game this week. Kyle Hunter’s kind of neutral like Switzerland with the Bengals thing going, how you feeling? Good to have you aboard.

Kyle:

It’s good to be here guys. Nice title game there last night in college football. Now the focus goes to the NFL playoffs and college basketball. You know, we’ve already been talking college basketball here for a long time, but a lot of other people are going to be jumping on board, looking forward to all the viewers tuning in and yeah, the Bengals, I’m just hoping for a playoff win guys. It’s been so long.

T.J. Reeves:

Has been a while for them. And again, spread the word. We’re here Monday through Friday at one Eastern time now locked and loaded all the way through the college basketball season. And the Big Man On Campus is ready to tell you that he had Georgia and was all over Georgia while I was saying Alabama and the bulldogs got it to end the college football season last night. Big man, how you feeling as we get ready to talk some college hoops too?

Jeff Nadu:

Doing well. It was a great game last night. It worked out for me. Look, sometimes I put too much on games that I shouldn’t, but I did. I really liked Georgia in that game. It was a wild fourth quarter that pick six was electric. Loved it. What a great thing for Georgia, haven’t won since 1980, so good for them. But yeah, now the calendar turns and we have some college hoops to talk about. I was a little disappointed with my selection last night with South Dakota, just missed a couple of free throws late, actually had a shot. They had 75 points and were at the line with two to get it up and over, but the kid bricked both of them and just missed out. What are you going to do? Good season so far though.

T.J. Reeves:

Yep, it has been a good season. And that was the team total play that you had last night in that one. And again, not a lot to choose from. There was one Pac-12 game. And you did say this, Jeff, on the show yesterday that Oregon State playing Oregon in the rivalry game at home getting four and a half or five, and it ends up being a one point game. You said, if I did have a lean or a play, it would be Oregon state, and why is this line four and a half or five for them at home? They hung in, even though they didn’t get the victory last night, the Beavers.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, they hung around. And that’s what the thought is when conference play comes, you kind of throw out what the records are, and that’s that’s Oregon State. I mean, this is a team that was not good in the non-conference last year. Didn’t look like much of anything and what’d they do? They go and win the Pac-12 and go to the NCAA tournament and make a deep run. So with the students back last night in Beaver country, you knew that against their heated rival, that was going to be a game that I think they’d played well in. And you mentioned Alatishe. He was terrific last night, 16 and seven in 32 minutes.

Jeff Nadu:

So yeah, I had a couple, this is what makes this show tough, man. You know, you have to put these games in a lot of the time, the night before. I figure looking back Sunday night, I wish I’d have probably looked towards maybe Texas Southern last night. I thought they were in a good spot against a team in Mississippi Valley that had come off their Super Bowl, beating Prairie View over the weekend. Didn’t have their best player. They end up winning by what, 35. So, woulda coulda shoulda-

Kyle:

It is what it is.

T.J. Reeves:

Yep. And again, we just go over this with the audience because of our production and everything that goes into it. A lot of times these guys are making a play on the night before or the morning of the show and the line might move and we get new information. Sometimes they have to yank a game. Sometimes they stay with the game, just how it works in our timeline and in our world on BetUS. Kyle Hunter is back aboard as we mentioned here, and I know you’re anxious to roll the sleeves up. We got several conference games that we’re going to get into here today, including one right away from the Pac-12. But just as a general thought, Kyle, before we get into the specific games, conference play, whole new animal, especially if you’re a team playing at home in conference play, no matter what your record is, right?

Kyle:

Sure, yeah. The beginning of conference season’s always a unique handy cap as compared to everything that’s gone on so far in the season. And you guys know I’m the totals guy. So I have to say there have been a lot of overs here lately. Some really high scoring games. I think the last week of games in college basketball were almost 60% to the over. So we’ve seen a lot of scoring. There’s a lot of debate as to what has led to that. There’s been a little bit more fouls called. The pace has been there a bit more. Some people think maybe these guys are getting a bit more conditioned than what they were earlier in the season.

Kyle:

Having said that though, I don’t know that that’s predictive of what’s going to happen over the next week or so. It’s just interesting to see that there have been a lot of higher scoring games. I do think that some of these teams that had a tough non-conference slate, even a team like Jeff was just talking about there with Oregon State. Some of those teams that have played really poorly in the non-conference, but played a pretty difficult non-conference slate, could have some value as underdogs here early in conference season.

T.J. Reeves:

Always good to keep an eye on that and the totals, et cetera. Let’s take a look at our record going into action here on Tuesday. The Big Man On Campus, still above the 500 mark, Kyle Wright at the 500 mark as he begins making some predictions, and we’ve got several plays coming today here on the show. Let’s get to play number one and it is a Pac-12 game and it’s an afternoon game. It is a two Pacific time game at Maples Pavilion where Stanford is, and Stanford has not played a game since before Christmas because of COVID pause and oh good. They get USC. the unbeaten Trojans, the top team right now in the Pac=12 comes in as a six point favorite. The total at 139 and a half. Kyle Hunter, we go to you first for what you like and why in this one?

Kyle:

Yeah, this is a weird 2:00 PM Pacific start time. No fans allowed at Maples Pavilion at Stanford for this one. So you can’t give Stanford the full court advantage, home court advantage, in this one because I don’t know that they deserve much of any home court advantage here. It’s almost a neutral-site game when you consider that they don’t have any home fans and they’re coming off that long COVID break. If anything, Stanford might even be missing a couple guys in this one. There’s no final word as to that. Coaches are very quiet about that, but Stanford, not the talent level that USC is to begin with. Now they have some other disadvantages coming into this game. To me, the problem here for Stanford too, is their turnover problems on offense. 22.4% of their offensive possessions have ended in turnovers only 15 and a half percent for USC.

Kyle:

That’s a massive difference and, and USC’s length can bother a lot of people. Stanford is a tall team as well. They just don’t have very good guard play. Stanford’s transition defense has been a major problem this year. 347th out of 358 teams in the country, according to Shot Quality. And USC is a really fast-paced team. They’re in transition on about 20% of their possessions on offense. So athletic, big men there. We know that. USC is likely to get a lot of chances in the transition here. I think that’ll work out pretty well. Stanford wants to get inside, not a great three point shooting team. USC is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency inside the paint. So it’s not going to be easy getting those buckets there in the paint against them. If Stanford gets red hot from outside, then maybe this play loses.

Kyle:

But I think this is one of those plus expected value bets for me. I will say this was minus five last night when I dropped it in there. So it has gotten a point worse. I like five better, but I still like it at six as well. I think that USC here the much more talented team, the team that just played a game after having a bit of a break, played pretty good in that first game back. So they get their warmup game. Stanford, this is their warmup game. And I don’t think you want your warmup game to be against the most talented team in the Pac-12. So, well second, most probably to Arizona. So USC has the best record now, but Arizona is probably the most talented team. So USC, to me, in a good spot here, the better team. I’ll lay the six points in this spot.

T.J. Reeves:

Good on that, big man. We did talk about USC, at least I did and mentioned off the COVID pause they looked fantastic in the first half against Cal the other night. Won that one, any thoughts here, if no official play on the afternoon, the matinee special 2:00 Pacific time coming up against Stanford.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, the pause that Stanford had, obviously, if it came at a bad time, they had actually been playing pretty well, won four or five I think overall. And now you come off and as he said, you have to play one of the toughest teams in this conference. I mean right now I think we got to start talking a little bit about Southern Cal. I mean, defensively they have the best effective field goal in the country. And this team defensively has been nails. They kind of, I think are just a more talented San Diego State. That’s kind of what they are. I’d love to see another matchup between those two. We, we had the matchup earlier. It was just kind of a weird neutral site game, right after Thanksgiving. I’d have loved to see that game again. The problem that Stanford has here is I think the one knock on USC is their free throw percentage, but Stanford didn’t shoot the ball real well.

Jeff Nadu:

There’s no matchup here I think that Stanford has that I like. It’s also a team coming off a pause. Look, if this got to like seven, seven and a half, I wouldn’t have any interest, but yeah, at five, six, I think there’s still value on USC. At any point, we’ve got to start taking a look at this group, and when they win, it generally is coming by three plus possessions. I mean, most of the time when they take care of business, it’s been by margin. So I’m not real worried here. I think it’s a good spot. The only thing that might keep you off it is the early start, but you’re not going to have that crowd stuff, which we talked about just an odd thought that you can’t go to these games. Not really sure why, but yeah, I don’t have any issue with this play. It looks like a good one.

T.J. Reeves:

Yeah, it, it doesn’t seem to make much sense. Again, they’re not asking us, but I did see my colleague, you guys might know the name, doing the game on TV, as Roxy Bernstein. Who’s out of the Bay Area and Roxy’s tweeting pictures from the shoot around and making the joke “this is going to look a lot like what the game looks like coming up later on” because there’s nobody here for this except for those that are actually physically working the clock, working the score book, the teams themselves, that kind of thing. It, is a bit strange.

T.J. Reeves:

And again, important that you mentioned Stanford has not played a game since they were in Hawaii on December 23rd. They won the first two games of the Diamond Head Classic, the University of Hawaii’s tournament in Honolulu. And then after the day off, Stanford had a couple of positive cases and said, we can’t risk it. We can’t play. They canceled the championship game, and even the semi-final third place game of that tournament. Stanford hasn’t played since. That was December 23rd. What will they look like coming up this afternoon? Kyle Hunter is questioning that enough. So we lock in his play on USC. He will lay the six points this afternoon with the Trojans in that matchup.

T.J. Reeves:

Back to game number two. And we’re going to swing all the way from Northern California into State College, Pennsylvania, where Penn State will host Rutgers in Big Ten play. We did talk a little bit briefly about Penn State on the show, Kyle, in your absence yesterday, but you have an official play on this matchup with the Nittany Lions laying three and the total at 132 and a half. What do you like and why?

Kyle:

At first I think Shrewsberry has done a really good job here with Penn State so far this year. I think he’ll be a good coach for them. I’ve been impressed with the way they’ve played, especially with not great talent level there for Penn State. I don’t think that they’re buying in certainly to the process. I like the under in this game, and I know went with a side there in the first play. You’re usually going to hear totals from me more often than not. And Penn State to me has done a really good job of forcing the opponent to play at their pace. Their pace is extremely slow. I think that that’s pretty intentional. They don’t have the talent level that some of the other teams in the Big Ten do. So they don’t want to get in these track meet games and get into a real high scoring game.

Kyle:

They’re 353rd out of 358 teams in the country in pace of play. They’re 12th in free throw allowed on defense. So they are not fouling much at all. They’re also top 50 in defensive rebounding percentage. I know you guys have heard me say this before, but I’m going to say it again. When you take an under, you want a team that doesn’t foul a lot and you want a team that doesn’t give up a lot of second chance points. Penn State has done a really good job of that. Not giving second chances, and I think Rutgers is a really well coached team. They’ve looked pretty good lately. Inconsistent on offense for me though. This is a Rutgers’ team that, so they’ve looked good on offense lately, but let’s look who they’ve played in those games, Maine, Central Connecticut State, Michigan, who, frankly, hasn’t been very good.

Kyle:

And then Nebraska, who’s obviously not good at all. So this is a tough test for Rutgers as compared to what they’ve been up against here lately. The Rutgers’ defense I do think is a trustworthy group. Like I said, I think they’re a well coached team, a defensive minded coach, and for Penn State, lacking stars who can get their own points offensively. Jeff knows this. Jalen Pickett was really good a couple years ago for Siena. He hasn’t really been the same. He got injured last year. He was only, he was okay, but he wasn’t himself from a couple years ago. And Pickett still doesn’t look very good this year. Lundy’s a good player, not really a guy that gets his own shot as much as a streaky shooter. I think this is a slow paced game and one where the two defenses have an advantage. So I’m going to take Rutgers and Penn State under the total here.

T.J. Reeves:

Interesting. As Kyle mentioned, Rutgers has put together a four game win streak. You can question the competition a little bit. Again, they destroyed Nebraska in their last game, 93-65. Big man, a thought here on this Big Ten matchup for a Tuesday night.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I have no interest in road teams in the Big Ten. Especially Rutgers, who is a disaster on the road and has been for a couple of years now. Now that we have fans back in 95% of these stadiums, you really have to, I think, put that back into motion. Look at home and Piscataway, they’re a good team, beat Purdue. But on the road, I just don’t have any interest in Rutgers. I don’t think they’re a very good offensive team to begin with, which he kind of alluded to. I will say, I mean, Penn State, I actually do like them as a personnel group. I actually think some of their players are solid. I mean, I like Lundy a lot. I saw Sam Sessoms when he was in high school, a terrific player, at a couple different schools around the area. He transferred in.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s been a nice pickup for them. I actually kind of liked him here in this game. I think they take care of business. That’s a tough, weird place to play kind of a weird atmosphere, but always a tough trip into the Bryce Jordan Center. So yeah, I kind of like Penn State here if I do say so myself. Rutgers, just, I’m not interested in on the road. And this is the team that went on the road, lost to UMass and lost to DePaul. I’m just never going to bet on them on the road, ever.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. We’ll file that away. Penn State, by the way, did defeat Indiana at home back a couple of weekends ago. They did lose to Purdue in a tight game at home, 74-67 in their last contest. You mentioned Seth Lundy, he had 23 in their win over Northwestern on the road can score. Let’s see what will happen tonight with the Nittany’s hosting Rutgers. And again, Kyle Hunter is thinking not a lot of points. He’s on the under for our point total in game number two. A reminder, keep the questions and answers rolling for those of you in the live chat, Kyle and Jeff May be answering you in the live chat. We will get to a couple of those questions here at the end of our slate that you see on the left side of the screen, when it reappears there, Q and A coming up after a couple of more games. The next of those by the way will be the Northeastern Huskies.

T.J. Reeves:

Northeastern will go and will travel into James Madison, JMU. I believe Northeastern might be the Terriers. I may have that confused with Yukon being the Huskies. They’re a dog of some kind.

Jeff Nadu:

Huskies.

T.J. Reeves:

And they are a dog last night on the board as well. So it is Northeastern Huskies. I was right on the first go around. James Madison is laying six in this one tonight, Big Man On Campus. We got an under over of 140, the total at one 140 tonight. What do we like for this one here tonight at James Madison, JMU?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m going to play the over you look at Northeastern, not a lot jumps out to you offensively, you know, I’m not going to tell you that I’m going to write home about their offense. But quite honestly, they do a nice job, get to the line. They, really kind of put their head down and get to the hoop. That’s what they want to do at Northeastern. And under Bill Coen, they kind of run this motion offense. And they’ve had some success over the years. I’m not going to say this is one of his more talented teams, but they’re pretty adept at scoring the basketball. And you look at over the last six games, Northeastern’s six and 0 to the over, okay. They’ve been over in all of them. I think they’re a pretty efficient offense. They’re not going to go fast. They’re not crazy up and down tempo team, but they get the job done and they score in the half court, which I think is pretty easy to do against JMU.

Jeff Nadu:

If you’ve ever watched JMU, they’re not a good defensive team. They play a really high, heavy pace. I actually had the over with them the other night against Hofstra. I’ve been enjoying watching them play, and they’re a good over team. So I think these two offenses, I think they are going to have some success tonight. JMU is really good on offense. They have a great team that goes up and down. As I said, I think both offenses have some success tonight. I don’t need a ton of points here. You know, 74-70 is going to get the job done here. I think Northeastern has kind of been the team that has played a pretty tough schedule. I mean, they’re one of the tougher strength schedules in the country, but I think it’s starting to loosen up a little bit. They’re getting into their conference play and that allows them to play a little bit more open. And this conference is not exactly a great defensive conference. So for me, I’m going to play the over. It’s been ticked up a little bit. I got a pretty good price here at 140. I’m in on that.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Kyle Hunter. What about this match up? Any thoughts on it? I know you do not have an official play, but a thought or two?

Kyle:

Yeah, I’ll keep it brief here. Because I will say I project all the totals out and I had this one at 140, so I’m pretty neutral on this one. I’ll be rooting for Jeff to win this one, certainly. You’ll definitely get pace with James Madison and he is definitely right on that. 22nd average possession length Bill Coen’s teams at Northeastern are usually pretty efficient on offense. They actually weren’t very good offensively at the beginning of this year. They’ve been a little bit better here of late. Usually kind of a mediocre team on defense. Overall, a pretty well coached team.

PART 3 OF 4 ENDS [01:09:04]

Kyle:

Usually mediocre team on defense, overall a pretty well-coached team.

Kyle:

I think Northeastern will probably improve offensively and maybe this is their shot against a James Madison team that’s really not that great defensively. The pace should be there. Like I said, I had this number at 140, so I’m pretty neutral on this one, but I’ll keep my thoughts brief so we can get to quite a few of the questions and answers.

Jeff Nadu:

Generally, when you go on the road in conference play, you’re going to play at the pace of the home team, and JAMU wants to turn this beat up a little bit here. And I think they’re going to have some success doing that.

Jeff Nadu:

So yeah, I think this is a little too low in this number.

T.J. Reeves:

Let’s lock it in as again the game for Northeastern and the Dukes of James Madison. Jeff Nadu is on the over on the total tonight in that matchup at James Madison coming this evening.

T.J. Reeves:

One more game on our slate that the handicappers have isolated to have official plays on, and that is La Salle and St. Bonaventure, a showdown in Philadelphia.

T.J. Reeves:

The Bonnies come in, they were a darling in the pre-conference and they come in as a nine-and-a-half point favorite. They’ve taken some losses after an early pre-conference tournament win, now they’re nine and a half point favorites on the road against La Salle in Philly. Total at 141 and a half. We’re right back to the big man, Jeff Nadu. What do you like?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, so… I’m kind of betting into a situation that I think is a handicap where you don’t want to do on a regular basis.

Jeff Nadu:

Keep in mind, you mentioned some of the issues in non-conference play. We haven’t seen St. Bonaventure. They haven’t played since December 17th, almost a calendar month since we last saw the Bonnies.

Jeff Nadu:

They had a lot of time to stew about an 86-49 pounding at the hands of Virginia Tech. And you lose by 37 points to a team like Virginia Tech, you’ve got some real issues. And look, Bonnie had plenty of time to stew.

Jeff Nadu:

Now you come back, you got to go on the road, obviously not ideal, but, this is a bad LaSalle team, okay. I’m just going to say that now. This is a super soft group. One of the worst defensive teams you’ll find, one of the worst three-point defenses you’ll find. Just a Swiss cheese defense that gets crushed at the rim. This is the kind of team you want to play against coming back.

Jeff Nadu:

Now I am getting into a little bit of a muddy water here with, maybe personnel not being up to date for Bonaventure, but I’d have to imagine being off for nearly a month, I’d have to imagine that they’re pretty much good to go.

Jeff Nadu:

And I know we kind of talked yesterday about some of the teams that didn’t have success off of the bounce in the COVID pause. I don’t think Bonaventure’s going to be one of them. I’m willing to believe this is just a team that they should take care of. Last season, first game they played, beat them I think 76-42 or something crazy. It was a blowout.

Jeff Nadu:

I think La Salle’s bad. I think Bonnie comes out here with their head on fire and takes care of a bad team here and wins big. I thought this number was a little low. Again, I’m not going to lay double digits nearly on the road all the time, but this is spot I did it in.

Jeff Nadu:

By the way, if you ever go to La Salle, little Philadelphia hack for you- don’t think… Make sure you be careful. It’s a tough neighborhood La Salle’s in, if you ever come to the City of Brotherly Love. La Salle is, looks nice, but it’s not that a great area. So make sure you stay safe if you’re going to the game tonight.

T.J. Reeves:

This public service announcement from brother Nadu on the certain parts of Philadelphia to be careful in. Kyle Hunter, what do you think here about this matchup? Again, a St. Bonaventure team that has been off for a month.

T.J. Reeves:

As Jeff was basically saying, they’ve lost three Atlantic 10 games to postponement right now. Now they’re coming back off the pause to play La Salle.

T.J. Reeves:

Can this be a team that recaptures some of what we saw in Charleston? It was all the way back in November that they beat Clemson and followed it up with a win over Marquette to win the tournament in Charleston. I don’t know that either of you two, I or anybody watching us, knows what to expect after a month off, Kyle. Right?

Kyle:

You know, I thought about this one a lot after I saw Jeff had this game and just took a pretty deep dive into this one.

Kyle:

St. Bonnie was a really highly rated team in the pre-season. People thought they were going to be very good. They still could be very good. They have a lot of season left.

Kyle:

Like Jeff said, and I agree with him on this, if you go into a COVID break playing really well, I think it’s probably a bad thing in that first game coming out of it. But then, if you’re absolutely smashed, embarrassed the way they were by Virginia Tech in their last game, they’ve had tons of time to think about… They’ve heard how bad they are, that embarrassing loss. This is a senior-laden team, a lot of veterans on St. Bonaventure. And I don’t know that you could be playing a much better team to try to get right against than La Salle here in the first game back.

Kyle:

La Salle, Jeff said, defensively, they’re a really bad team. They’re really bad offensively too. They kind of scrap, play hard enough, but they just don’t really have any identity. This is not a team that has a talent level that should be able to hang around with St. Bonaventure.

Kyle:

And La Salle, if you look at their schedule, they played the 339th toughest schedule in the country out of 358, according to KenPom. St. Bonnie, 94th.

Kyle:

Lofton, Kyle Lofton, a star for St. Bonaventure, he missed quite a few games there right before the break. That certainly hurt them a lot too, so that made them look worse than what they really are when they are full strength. We don’t know exactly if they’re completely full strength here, but even if they are down a little bit I think St. Bonnie should be able to handle La Salle.

Kyle:

I agree with Jeff on this being a good spot for St. Bonnie to come back after losing that way. Playing against a La Salle team that’s just not nearly as talented as them, so I will lean towards St. Bonnie as well.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, Jeff has the official play on this one and it is laying points nine and a half of them with St. Bonaventure off the COVID pause against La Salle. Let’s see what they do look like in this matchup tonight.

T.J. Reeves:

And again, it’s a bit of a mixed bag because I know people were looking at that Florida-Alabama game that we talked about last week, where Florida had been on a pause, they’re playing at home, slept walk through a lot of the first half and fell behind. And Alabama eventually beat them by double figures and covered in that game.

T.J. Reeves:

Then again you watch USC off a long pause and how they look. So you just got to try to navigate this as best you can off of these teams and what they look like beforehand.

T.J. Reeves:

So that’s the official play is St. Bonaventure.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. So let’s take a look now at what some of the fans might want here on the Q&A.

T.J. Reeves:

Connor is watching us on the Tuesday edition of The Bet US College Basketball Show. And he says, “Thoughts on Quinnipiac and Canisius.”

T.J. Reeves:

And we have talked about those teams, the big man shaking in his head right away. Does this one go in the category of your betting a game, just to bet a game that you keep preaching about on this show?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m always fascinated by these people that want to talk about these games. But I know why, I mean, it’s the standalone game at 2:00 on a Tuesday.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, look guys, I’m going to keep preaching this. This is a coin flip, okay. You can go get a quarter on your kitchen counter and flip it 10 times and whatever, you get 6 out of 10. That’s what I would like… it’s a bet you make, because you need action. And that’s not how you’re going to long term win in gambling. You’re just not.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, if you have an edge on this, I advise you to play it, but you’re not going to find one for me. I wouldn’t bet this with my worst enemy’s money. And I hate my worst enemy. So yeah, I’m no interest here. None. There’s no edge.

T.J. Reeves:

I’m glad we’re not your enemies. Are you a heads guy or a tails guy, when calling the coin?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Tails never fails, bro.

T.J. Reeves:

Tails never fails, baby. Kyle Hunter, tails never fails? Baby?

Kyle:

Tails, absolutely. Yeah.

T.J. Reeves:

Tails. I’m taking it that you’re echoing what he’s saying.

Kyle:

Yeah. You know, Canisius is a team that in general, I like to bet some overs with, but they’re coming off a COVID break. I don’t like betting overs, especially high overs in these afternoon games off a COVID break.

Kyle:

I know why people are asking about Canisius, Quinnipiac, and Iona and Fairfield. I mean, those are the afternoon games, but we don’t want to bet it just because it’s on. So I don’t see any big edge in this game, either.

T.J. Reeves:

By the way, speaking of Iona, while we’re on that subject, I got to see some of that game with St. Louis the other night. A wild finish, including Iona, getting a chance on a broken play, to score down by one, got to the rim, and could not put it in at the very end. And that was again, a COVID popup game where they makeshift were able to play, get the schedules together and be able to play, because both of them were COVID-healthy and it lost some opponents to COVID 19 postponement. So that game also going on this afternoon.

T.J. Reeves:

So if you’re watching us live in the one Eastern time hour, those games are coming up. If you’re seeing us much later today, those have already happened. Nadu says you shouldn’t be giving a second thought to Quinnipiac and Canisius to begin with.

T.J. Reeves:

Let’s continue.

T.J. Reeves:

We have another viewer who wants to know. This is Paul, “West Virginia-Oklahoma State might be a little better here later on tonight in the Big 12, including Oklahoma State getting a good win on the weekend.” One over Texas, I believe it was. They look good. Either one of you with a thought, Kyle, you got a thought on West Virginia-Oak State?

Kyle:

Yeah. I’m looking at the current odds here. I would lean to the under in this game. West Virginia is not the really fast-paced press Virginia team that we saw a couple years ago. Good defense, not terribly efficient on offense this season.

Kyle:

Oklahoma State, the only concern and why I didn’t make this a play is Oklahoma State and West Virginia are both good on the offensive glass. As I’ve said, I don’t really like taking unders with two teams that are going to get a lot of second chances.

Kyle:

But my strongest lean in that game is the under, seeing 134 as a prevalent number, here in this one. As far as the side, I don’t really have anything. I think three is a pretty fair number in that one.

T.J. Reeves:

Game in Morgantown, big man. Any thought? No official play?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I got to be honest, this is a fascinating game because I think on the side, I think West Virginia, if you can keep it under three, I have some interest, because as Kyle said, I mean, Oklahoma State’s coming off a huge win against Texas. Now you got to head down to Morgantown. That’s a tough place to play.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m actually a big fan of West Virginia. They seem to be healthy again from what I know. I know Taz Sherman’s back, Sean McNeil, everybody’s good to go, Gabe Osabuohien’s back.

Jeff Nadu:

So, I just… I don’t want to be on them because I remember when I went to the fight that I had, we were about… We’re in West Virginia and we were at a bar watching them play Yukon. And they love basketball down there, but I was on West Virginia in that game. And I was constantly on the edge of my seat because they couldn’t make free throws at the end of the game. It was ugly.

Jeff Nadu:

When I look at the total, he mentioned, he liked the under, I thought it was a little low. This game kind of screamed first to 70 wins. Like I could see this 70-67, completely, if it goes down a little lower, I might buy an over.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, I wish it were one and a half or I could get a good money line here, because I’d probably lean on just playing West Virginia on the money line, but you’re going to be on the edge of your seat because they are not a great free throw shooting team. This will be a close game.

Jeff Nadu:

I think it’s one of those, if it gets a three or four, maybe buy Okie State, if it goes a little bit lower, you might buy a WVU here at home.

T.J. Reeves:

And Huggins’ teams at Cincinnati were notorious for struggling at the foul line. His West Virginia teams, though, usually are good free throw shooting teams. So they’ve not been good this year as Jeff is saying or not been as good as what they need to be.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say-

T.J. Reeves:

Yep

Jeff Nadu:

Here’s one thing that it’s important to realize when you’re talking about free throw percentage, understand it’s a cumulative average of the entire team, right?

Jeff Nadu:

So here’s why free throw percentage can suck, right? Because you might have a kid that’s got eight attempts and he is one for eight. That hurts your collective.

Jeff Nadu:

So when you look at it, you have to ask yourself, okay, is this whole team really bad or are they all good? Like you look at their top three free throw takers. McNeil is 78%, Taz Sherman, 79%, Malik Curry, 65% and they’re not terrible. Okay, so you have to look at that kind of stuff.

Jeff Nadu:

Two and a half, I lean West Virginia. At BetUS, you can get two and a half, currently.

T.J. Reeves:

And you make a great point that that can be dragged down by some guys that maybe don’t play a lot.

T.J. Reeves:

Who are the guys that are shooting the most of them and what do they shoot? That’s that’s another good way to break it down, it’s not hard.

Jeff Nadu:

I remember a couple of years ago, Tacko Fall, I think he was a sophomore at UCF. They had every other player was 80%. You had Tacko Fall who was 30% and it killed their average.

Jeff Nadu:

So you have to look a little deeper into the free throw percentages and ask Jeff, “Okay, who’s likely to get the ball late in games?” Huggins isn’t stupid, he’s going to take Osabuohien who’s, what, eight, six for 30 on the year.

Jeff Nadu:

He’s just not going to be in the game at that point.

T.J. Reeves:

And that’s a great point that you make too, because once you get to January and you’ve pretty well established, this guy stinks at the line. He’s not going to be in the game in those situations to take those free throws. But it still measures out with the overall average.

T.J. Reeves:

I always love, too, when I’m working a game, they give you the breakout a lot of times, these good sports information directors, who are the guys that shoot the best in the final two minutes, here are the free throw percentages in the final two minutes, when a game is on the line and it matters the most about the free throws.

Jeff Nadu:

Maybe I need to talk to you, because you know what one of my dream jobs is? I would do it for free, to be honest. I just love it so much.

Jeff Nadu:

I want to be a statistician spotter for like radio and TV where you never hear from me. I just give you great factoids of knowledge.

T.J. Reeves:

Give me some gravy, I like that.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

T.J. Reeves:

I might take you up on that.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m adept at dumb facts that nobody knows and just off the cuff stuff.

T.J. Reeves:

Give me one. All right, you’ve prompted us. We’re on a Q&A. Give me a dumb fact that nobody knows, unprompted, didn’t rehearse this. Give me a dumb fact.

Jeff Nadu:

So like the capital of Cypress is Nicosia. There’s also a town in Italy called Nicosia.

T.J. Reeves:

So there’s two Nicosias, and only one of them is the capital of Cyprus.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Now Cyprus is an island off the coast of Greece. So, there you go.

T.J. Reeves:

But I’ve learned something on a dumb fact.

Jeff Nadu:

Now I might be-

T.J. Reeves:

-off the cuff. This is what you get from the big man, here.

Jeff Nadu:

Yes.

T.J. Reeves:

And I love that about him.

Jeff Nadu:

So let’s say maybe, you’re doing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers game and you find out that somebody’s parents are from Cyprus. I could go, “So, the capital of Cyprus is…”

T.J. Reeves:

It’s a dumb, fun fact. I didn’t know where he was going with that. He kept it clean. That’s good stuff. Good geography, good world geography. It’s like Final Jeopardy there, Alex.

T.J. Reeves:

Kyle Hunter, somebody’s asking about Jacksonville-Stetson real quick in the chat. Neil wants to know about that game. Any thought about that game?

Kyle:

Yeah. I looked at this game last night, considering it under, but it was under 125 at the time. It’s under 123.5 now.

Kyle:

My concern is Jacksonville’s defense has been really good this year, but they have some really good three point defense. Sometimes that’s a bit of variance, there can be variance on three point shot. Your three point defense can look really good and you’re not necessarily an amazing three point defense in the long run.

Kyle:

Also, Jacksonville slowed the pace down consistently in the non-conference, they don’t really have to do that now against teams that are more similar talent as them. So 123.5 is pretty low.

Kyle:

As far as the side, I would lean toward Jacksonville here laying the four and a half, but I don’t love laying four and a half points with the total set that low. So just a slight lean for me.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Real quick. A couple of other games here, just on the Q&A, I know mid-major Matt on the show yesterday said I would be curious what the full Florida State-Miami line is once it comes out later on Monday he meant. And it’s out now for today.

T.J. Reeves:

The latest is Florida State laying six and a half with Miami, and big man, the point there was will Miami have the let down on 72 hours after beating Duke? Will they have a let down against a state rival in Florida State? Six and a half a little too rich, maybe for that, if you’re thinking upset here? I know you have no official play.

Jeff Nadu:

No, this would be one where I wouldn’t even have to think twice. I’d lay it 100%. They crushed Miami last year. Not that that’s any caveat, because Miami’s much better than they were last year. But yeah, this is a real good spot for FSU. They’ve actually played pretty well lately, won three of four.We’ve forgotten about Leonard Hamilton’s team, haven’t we? I mean, they had a long… I think getting into the swing at things, a lot of new players.

Jeff Nadu:

But the dangerous thing about them this year is they actually have some point guards, which they haven’t had over the last couple years and the biggest team in America… I think this game screams, “We know what to do here.”

Jeff Nadu:

Remember, I mean, Miami just beat Duke. I mean, we can make the case. I mean, Miami, I know on Inside College Basketball, which I listen to every couple of days with Norlander and Parish, I think Parish ranked Miami.

Jeff Nadu:

I think there’s a good case for them to be ranked at this point. This is a stone cold spot where, why’s Florida State a six, six-and-a-half point favorite here? This screams double digit win for Florida State.

Jeff Nadu:

And I will say I’m actually a little disappointed in you, TJ, that you didn’t ask to talk about Alabama-Auburn, because I’d love to.

T.J. Reeves:

I was getting there! If you would’ve wrapped up, if you would’ve landed the plane on the thoughts about Miami-Florida State, I was getting to Auburn and Alabama next!

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, well look, I’d like to talk about that when we can, so yeah. But yeah, I think FSU and I’m sure Kyle’s… he would agree here, yeah? This just screams FSU.

Kyle:

Yeah-

T.J. Reeves:

Quick thought so we can talk Auburn-Alabama, please. For the big man on Miami-Florida State, Kyle Hunter.

Kyle:

I will definitely leave you time to talk about that game.

Kyle:

But Miami has been shooting lights out guys. I mean one point two one points for possession in the ACC.

Kyle:

We think they’re going to keep that up? No way they’re going to keep that up. 42% from three-point range. One of these games they’re going to have bad shooting night and going to get blown out. It could definitely be tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

And you look at-

T.J. Reeves:

Yeah, go ahead.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at the perimeter defense real quick for FSU. I mean every player they have is six-four or bigger. The good thing about that when you’re playing… Look, I’d zone the hell out of my… I really would. I’d challenge them to shoot up at over my big players. This is going to be-

T.J. Reeves:

Especially after you watch the Duke game, where again, all through the second half, they’re playing man-to-man and Miami spread them out, got any shot they wanted, went to the hole, used screens. You got to zone them.

Jeff Nadu:

Exactly. And I’ll challenge Miami to beat me on the road like that. And I don’t think they’re going to do it. This screams run-out game. Did anyone watch Colorado State-San Diego state?

Jeff Nadu:

That’s what this screams to me where FSU wins 91-68, they get crushed. Miami doesn’t make anything.

T.J. Reeves:

And one other concern, I promise we’re going to Auburn and Alabama, Florida State came off the pause and they got blown away by Wake Forest. So you don’t know, does that really matter? That was last week. Does that really matter here in this game? Let’s find out what had happens in a rivalry game with Miami coming up tonight.

T.J. Reeves:

All right. Auburn at Alabama. So they are jonesing. My buddy, Chris Stewart, I know this. He was at Mizzou on the radio call for Bama and Missouri. That was a rough game because Missouri beat them.

T.J. Reeves:

He then had travel that got screwed up on Sunday. He ended up hitching a ride, as he told me, he had a very generous private donor that had numerous people going with him on a private plane to Indianapolis to work the football game in Indy from Alabama, Monday.

T.J. Reeves:

So he wrote up day to the game. Now they lose the national title game and didn’t look good. Now you turn right back around and fly back, I guess on the private plane and Auburn comes to town and this SCC showdown. Big man can’t wait to launch, just for a second before we’re done on Auburn and Alabama.

T.J. Reeves:

Because we got to get out of here in a minute or two.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So little bit of a caveat here. I played, and this is why this show is difficult occasionally I played Alabama at 120 on the money line. Okay, they were one-and-a-half point favorites last night.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re now North of 160 and they’re three-point favorites. Okay, every sharp gambler on Earth, at least the true sharp people, have taken Alabama here.

Jeff Nadu:

This is a stone called Alabama or nothing. Okay. I get it. Why? Ask yourself why is Auburn a three-point dog in this game? Answer that. Nobody knows. Nobody answers. Nobody has an idea. Because on paper, they’re better than Alabama.

T.J. Reeves:

Well, but Alabama back home, angry. Alabama at home, angry. Kyle, we buying that as the reason why the line is three? Just real quick?

Kyle:

Yeah. I mean it’s a good spot for Alabama coming off a loss to Missouri, a Missouri team that’s not really that good but shot really well.

Kyle:

And Missouri also had 27 trips to the free throw line in that game against them. That meant quite a bit. Alabama’s going to be up for a game against Auburn. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.

Kyle:

And we know that Alabama at their best is a very talented team. They have a very high upside. So yeah, that would be my lean as well.

T.J. Reeves:

All right, good enough. Let’s get back to our best bets because we’ve got to get out of here for a Tuesday edition of the show.

T.J. Reeves:

Let’s take a look at what the guys have again at USC game that Kyle is on with Stanford, Southern Cal. That is an afternoon game 2:00 Pacific, 5:00 Eastern time. Jeff also on that as well. He is over the total of 140 in that matchup for that game.

T.J. Reeves:

And then also Kyle has a play on the under, on the Rutgers matchup with Penn State and then St. Bonaventure laying nine and a half. We actually have that graphic wrong. Let me just repeat here. Jeff is not on the USC Stanford game. He’s actually on the Northeastern-James Madison game.

T.J. Reeves:

So let’s clarify, the overplay that Jeff has is James Madison hosting Northeastern. So we just want to get that straight there on the graphics.

T.J. Reeves:

So Kyle is the only one with the play on the USC game that is this afternoon. Guys we got a roll here. Great job today. A lot of discussion, gave the fans a lot of help.

T.J. Reeves:

Big man, thank you. Kyle Hunter, thank you. Great job today, gentlemen.

Kyle:

Thank you guys.

Jeff Nadu:

Thanks, you too.

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