College Basketball Picks and Best College Basketball Odds [Jan. 17]

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T.J. Rives:

Well, hello there and happy Martin Luther King Day, as the national holiday is upon us here in January, but we were not going to miss out because there’s a slate of college basketball, including a top 25 game going on right now, as we do the live show from Monday on the BetUS College Basketball show. I am merely the somewhat capable host. The handicappers are here, Mid Major Matt, Matt Josephs, the Big Man on Campus. Jeff Nadu, boys I already know I had a really good Sunday with the Buccaneers, and I’m part of their radio broadcast beating both of your Philadelphia Eagles. I promise I’m not going to gloat too much. I’ll just smile a bit here on a Monday. How was your weekend otherwise guys? Everything good?

Jeff Nadu:

I bet you. I was fun.

T.J. Rives:

Part of the steps of the whole grieving process. Just go ahead and bet online the other team, if need be. Mid Major Matt, you’re good?

Matt Josephs:

Yeah, I’m good. They lost to the Super Bowl champs, so we’ll see. Next year’s another year.

T.J. Rives:

That is true. And the Buccaneers have been a punching bag for so long. So it’s good to get some wins, good to get some playoff wins. But we’re going to talk lots of college hoops and guys over the weekend, we saw some upsets. We saw some teams take losses at home, Michigan State being upset by Chris Collins’ Northwestern team at home. We saw Oklahoma State go beat Baylor at Baylor. There’s something up now with the Bears, we have to ask, huge win for OK State. Gonzaga kept rolling. We see the pinup behind Matt’s head there. And Matt, just a follow up thought here. I want one from both of you. Matt, you first on what we saw this weekend.

Matt Josephs:

Well, I mean, I’m the Mid Major guy, so I’ll point it out. I mean, first off Friday, we saw Davidson, who’s a machine on offense. And if they make the NCAA Tournament, giving coach McKillop time to prepare is always a good thing. I was really impressed with Davidson and of course, Murray State getting the win as convincingly as they did against Belmont. I mean this program every year, it’s just they lose guys and then they keep rolling. So that’s two of the mid majors. I think there’s going to be a bunch of mid majors if they win their conference that could upset a team like, oh, I don’t know, LSU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

T.J. Rives:

Yep. And speaking of LSU, Arkansas knocked them off even without their coach. We were talking about that Friday that Eric Musselman had to have shoulder surgery, rotator cuff injury, when his own player ran in to him during the Missouri game. He missed, Keith Smart was the interim coach and Arkansas won at LSU. Big man, your thoughts on a weekend that saw some upsets.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I was going to bring that game up. I took Arkansas this week. I thought it was too big a number. Look, the truth of the matter is I look, I’ve talked about LSU. I like LSU. I think they’re really legitimate, but they’re not without Pinson. It’s just that simple. They are not good offensively without him. And defensively. I think they’re still very solid, but Arkansas just kind of ran with the punches. They were able to hang around. Look, they were dreadful from three and they have been all year, but they finally caught heat in the second half and they were awesome. I mean, Jalen Williams, that guy’s, he’s a five tool player, man. He really is. If you haven’t watched him, go check him out. You know, Notae was terrific as usual. Arkansas did what they had to do. And you got to respect that with Keith Smart on the sideline. So yeah, I like Arkie. I like LSU too, but without Pinson, they’re going to be a team I’m probably going to look to bet against. I just don’t think they’re as effective on both sides of the ball without him.

T.J. Rives:

All right. We do have some mid major action. Speaking of Mid Major Matt, that we’ll be discussing here for a Monday on the Martin Luther King holiday, there’s also a top 25 game going on as we speak. Just one more time on Baylor. Is there a concern because Oklahoma State held them down and beat them? Do we just chalk it up to conference play that Baylor has now dropped a couple of games in a row at home to Texas Tech and OK State? Either of you want to touch that?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, you know, I think it is problematic. I mean look, we all know this is a very tough conference. You’re not going to win every game, but these are two games at home you probably should win. Especially for that Texas Tech game, they didn’t have Terrence Shannon, who’s their best player. Oklahoma State, I mean they’re not eligible to make postseason play this year. You’re probably going to get a good game from them, but you should beat them at home. I mean it’s not going to get any easier. I mean, now you got to go on the road, you got to play West Virginia on Tuesday. You got to then go to Oklahoma next Saturday. You got Alabama still on the schedule out of conference. Those are two games where you need to find a way to win, and they didn’t win them. Is there a worry? Not really. I mean, I still think they’re a top five team, but they have to shoot better. That was a hideous offensive effort the other night. 31% from the field is, that’s hard to do. I wouldn’t say there’s concern. I mean, they’re still a good team. Are they last year’s team? No, but you got to try to find a way to win games against Oklahoma State at home, especially with how tough this conference is every night.

T.J. Rives:

Matt, any quick thought on that with Baylor losing and not scoring a lot Saturday?

Matt Josephs:

I mean no, it just means that they were trying and they’re going to probably end up trying to play the old Virginia formula of scoring just enough because they know their defense is going to show up in a lot of nights. The defense may have their little faults and cracks and then they’ve got to score enough. But look, I mean, I think it’s just a two game blip on the radar. You don’t have a lot of teams go undefeated, and certainly after a national championship year. I’m not very worried about them, but it’s something I’ll keep on my radar for the future.

Jeff Nadu:

One other thing I will say, the top 25 just came out. There was a lot of talk between pundits in college basketball about is Auburn going to be the number one team in the country? And they are not the number one team in the country, interestingly enough. A lot of people speculated that they would. You look at their Quad 1 record, 4-1, Gonzaga is 4-2. Look, Gonzaga is legendary. I love them. I think Matt does as well. They’ve scored 114 points per game in conference, but I’m hard pressed to say how right now, look is Gonzaga really good? You’re really splitting hairs. But I think Auburn should at least have been number one this week. I mean they’ve had an incredible run really since Thanksgiving. I was surprised to not see them as number one. Does it matter very much? No, because both these teams are going to lose at some point again, but I was surprised. I mean, it’s not like Gonzaga has played a [inaudible 00:06:20] and they’ve destroyed them and scored 100 points or more in every one of those games. But BYU is a nice win, but I was surprised that at least Auburn wouldn’t get at least one week as the number one team.

T.J. Rives:

And we did wonder how Gonzaga would do turning around, going on the road less than 48 hours later Saturday afternoon as Santa Clara. No problem. They put a bunch of points up on the board, won big and Auburn has already beaten LSU back a couple of weeks ago, won at Alabama. They are tested. Kentucky looked really good against Tennessee. We could go on and on about this weekend, but the peeps are not here to rehash and go over the history. They want to know about today here on the BetUS College Basketball show the present. So let’s look at our records first. Again, the Big Man on Campus with a 2-0 Friday, now pushing forward above that 500 mark. Mid Major Matt was 1-1 on the split, did not get the St. Bonaventure cover, but did get the Davidson team total on Friday.

T.J. Rives:

So Matt, still above the 500 mark. Let’s morph that into our first game and we got to have our running shoes on here because there are matinee games that we are talking about. So if you were interested in short time investing and betting this afternoon, pay attention here because this, for example, if you’re watching us live in the one Eastern time hour, Mount St. Mary’s and Merrimack is a three Eastern time game for the Martin Luther king holiday Merrimack is a 3.5 point favorite, the total at 119.5. Big Man on Campus, you have a play on this for Martin Luther King Day afternoon, Monday. What do you like?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I played Merrimack here. I thought this was a good spot for Joe Gallo’s team, obviously at home, which is big in this one. Mount St Mary’s has really struggled away from home this year. Every game on the road they have played and lost and has come by more than six points. This is not a very effective road team. In fact, they only have two road wins on the season. One was an overtime win against lowly Robert Morris. And then they did beat St. Francis of Brooklyn. But this is not, I think the same Mount team as we’ve seen in years past. They lost Nnamene and Chong Qui, who I thought was their best player last year. You look at that in this game, and coupled with the fact that Merrimack got beat up by Mount last year in two games.

Jeff Nadu:

Got to imagine, look, when you get into these conferences, they’re never going to forget the revenge from last season. I think this is a big game. I’ve always talked about when you play Merrimack, you’ve got to be able to shoot the rock. Look, Mount’s been okay shooting the rock, but couple the fact that you’re on the road here, they’re not a very good offensive team. Look, the pace in this game is not going to be there. I’m really going to [inaudible 00:08:51], I think late in this game. But I think with Merrimack it seems like they have, since they’ve gotten into conference play, really turned it up. I expect them to be one of the better teams in this conference this year. They defend their asses off. They turn you over and look, offensively, it’s not great. It’s a work in progress, but I thought there was a little value. I’d have put this number a bit higher. I thought 3.5 was good. I’m going to trust Merrimack at home to take care of a team that when they lose on the road, it’s generally coming by two, three or more possessions. They’ve regularly gotten waxed by double digits on the road. I like Merrimack here, modest 3.5 at home today.

T.J. Rives:

All right. Mid Major Matt, a thought, if not an official play on this game this afternoon.

Matt Josephs:

Well, I mean, this is not usually in my wheelhouse, but what I’ll say is this. So there’s a play coming up that I would do. So I would do like a money line parlay here with Merrimack in one of my plays coming up because the money line that we’re going to, we’ll get into that a little bit later. But I think the one thing you look at, Merrimack forces turnovers, Mount St Mary’s 336 offensive turnover percentage. I mean, that should be big. You’re getting a Merrimack team that just got blasted, as Jeff said at home in their last game. So they’re going to be a lot focused for this one. I think Merrimack wins. I don’t know how comfortable I am to lay the points there so I would take the money line as part of like a parlay for something else that I’ve got coming up. But he’s got sound reasoning there. I wish him luck on this one.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say, T.J. Real quick, just kind of colluding on this as well. This is why when you look at KenPom, there’s things that you need to, again, I continue to talk about this conference play. KenPom, when you look at there on the record numbers, they figure the entire season, and when you figure the entire season and Merrimack’s adjusted, officially offensively is bad. Now when you hit that conference only tab in five games, this is one of the better offenses in that conference. So again, I want to get to a current form of where Merrimack is. I think they’re much better offense than they might lead on in their numbers. You’ve got to look a little deeper when you judge these teams. So again, I think we’re now at the point for Merrimack where they’re going to win a lot of games because in this conference, I think they’re really good. So yeah, is it the greatest play I’ve ever played? No, but I like this. I have value. I played with this team before.

T.J. Rives:

And you are making a valid point that you’ve made over and over again, and we’re emphasizing it for the audience that there’s a lot of new people that join us in a given week or on a given show that sometimes in conference play, you got to analyze, dig deeper, drill down a little bit more on how different a team is playing. And that’s what you’ve isolated for this matchup.

T.J. Rives:

So again, let’s lock in the official play for the Big Man on Campus here. And he is on Merrimack and he is laying the 3.5 points. Again, that is a three Eastern time game. If you are seeing and some people see us later on, on the YouTube show and through BetUS, a three Eastern time game here for you to get in on that, on Jeff’s play. Nice tees by the way, Mid Major Matt for what’s coming up later on with another play that you’ve got coming with a money line. We do know what we have coming up is a Big Five showdown. Another matinee on Martin Luther King Day as we continue on the schedule is St. Joseph’s hosting La Salle, St. Joe’s laying 6.5 points. Our number here is 149.5. And we go back to Mid Major Matt here for what his play is on a game that again is coming up at four Eastern time. So you got some time to go get involved in this one as well. Matt, what do you like?

Matt Josephs:

I mean, I love playing La Salle however possible. They play in a high school gymnasium. Their fan base is not very good. Their team is not very good. Actually, Howard probably is a decent coach, but he’s got nothing to work with. And the one thing you notice with this team is their defense is terrible. I mean, they gave up 82 points at Bucknell, and Bucknell is not exactly a great offensive team in the Patriot League. And there’s just a lot. I don’t like about this La Salle team. And you look at St. Joe and they’ve got a really potent offense when they’re going and they’re going to play with some pace. Last year, this game was played in the 80s both times. St. Joe got over 80 points in each of them. I think they got 90 in one of them, 91, excuse me, in an overtime game against them.

Matt Josephs:

I just think St. Joe’s going to name their price here. Now the worry is it’s an afternoon game. It’s at home, but at least St. Joe will be comfortable here, but you look at this Hawks offense against the lower level teams that they’ve played. And they’ve just been very good at home. I talked to my St. Joe guy up there. He said the roster’s fine, so everything looks good. So I’m looking at a St. Joe team total over here. Now I’ll say this, I got in a little bit earlier on it. The total and the game got steamed up, and the team total’s gone up a little bit since when I got it, but I still like it. I think St. Joe can name their price here. I think they get 80 points potentially. And I think they get an easy win here. I don’t trust them necessarily to cover. Their defense isn’t always great. That’s why we’re taking the St. Joe team total over here.

T.J. Rives:

All right. La Salle is a team that we did talk about recently on the show and they did battle St. Bonaventure into overtime in a recent game. In fact, last week, Big Man on Campus, you’re there in the greater Philadelphia area. What is your thought if no official play here?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’ve said before, I think there’s some renewed optimism in that area of west Philadelphia. I think St Joe’s is turning the page a bit. This has not been a great basketball team, but Billy Lange finally I think is getting this team where he wants them. I think defensively, they’ve been pretty good, quite honestly, especially within years past. The way they play offensively, they’re very fast. They like to go up and down. Number one tempo in this conference and 43rd overall nationally in possessions. So defensively, they’ve been good. I mean, especially playing Matt fast. I like Hall a lot. He’s terrific. Taylor Funk, I’m a big fan of. I like this offense. I love Matt’s play here. La Salle is a layup line defensively. They’ve given up 80 or more in three of the last four, just a dreadful team that gets no stops.

Jeff Nadu:

They’re not good at the mid range. They’re not good from three defensively, and they’re going to let you run whatever pace you want. They also play a little bit more hype helter skelter as well. So I think the pace would be there. I wouldn’t really want to trust La Salle because sometimes they’ll look good offensively. Some nights they don’t. Throw in the fact that this is a road game for them. Look, I know people will point out, oh, it’s Philadelphia. Both these teams are of Philly. Listen, I’ll need to City Line Avenue is not exactly a block or two away. You got to get on a bus and move around. So are you in your bed? Yeah, but you got to get on the road and move. So for me, I agree with Matt. I think this is a good one. I think to get to 80, this St. Joe’s team is solid.

T.J. Rives:

All right. Let’s lock it in here for Mid Major Matt. And he is on the St. Joe’s Hawks here and their team total for Monday afternoon of 78 for his official play in that one. Reminder again, get some questions going in the Q&A. We’ll have a little time for that at the end of the Monday show. Moving right along, we’ve got another game to take a look at. And this one involves on the schedule Norfolk State playing at Maryland Eastern Shore, a little bit obscure, but again right in the Matt wheelhouse, the Mid Major Matt wheelhouse. Maryland Eastern Shore is getting 4 points, actually 4.5 points at home. Our total is 136.5. And Matt, is this the money line play that you were talking about just a little earlier in the show potentially? What do you like?

Matt Josephs:

So what we want, so taking people a little bit behind the curtains, we give our plays in about 11 o’clock or so, and we kind of lock them in at the time. And if there’s line moves, sometimes it benefits us. Sometimes it doesn’t. So when I did this, it was about 2, 2.5. So it was a reasonable money line here. And now it’s minus 190. I would never tell anybody to take a minus 190. I think that’s a little bit much here. It’s a little rich as they would say. And so what I would suggest here is either pairing this money line up with the Merrimack money line and doing a two for there, or I would consider looking at Norfolk State in the first half. You’re telling me that one of the worst teams in the country in Maryland Eastern Shore hasn’t played since December 20th.

Matt Josephs:

And I’m going to be potentially be able to get a cheap number here on Norfolk State. I love Norfolk State. This is one of the teams that’s somewhat in my area. Obviously they’re a couple hours away, but at least I’ve paid, I’ve got one eye on Norfolk State and they’re 11-4 so far this season. They’ve got some road wins. They won at Bowling Green. They won at UNC Wilmington. Now look, once again, this is where you look at their season numbers and they’re not great, but you know that you look at their conference numbers and in two games so far, they’ve been pretty efficient. Well that’s of course because they’ve played a tougher schedule. You look, they lost to Xavier. They lost to Wichita State. They lost to New Mexico, teams that are out of their area. But now they’re back in their area, they’re playing against a Maryland Eastern Shore team that hasn’t played since December 20th. So my suggestion is, and it’s going to pop up in saying Norfolk State money line, because when I took it, it was a lot more reasonable. Either pair it off with Merrimack and do a two team money line parlay or consider taking Norfolk State in the first half against a potentially rusty Maryland Eastern Shore team. They’re not very good. What’s going to tell me that after not playing in, let’s see, this is about 26 days or whatever-

T.J. Rives:

About four weeks.

Matt Josephs:

Right, they haven’t played in four weeks. So you either look at the first half or do a money line parlay here and take advantage of this situation.

T.J. Rives:

That is wild because you would have thought that even if they were having COVID-19 problems back a couple of weeks ago, that it would have worked through, they could have gotten back to practice and played a game, but you’re right. They did not get that done last week or this past weekend. Now we have the game coming here on Monday. Jeff, do you have any thought on this? I know you don’t have an official play here on this, but any thoughts?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’ve always been a big fan of Robert Jones. I mean terrific coach. I think this is the best team in the MEAC, quite frankly. I think when it’s all said and done, we’re going to see them in the NCAA Tournament, very good. I mean good offense, Joe Bryant’s a terrific player. Christian Ings as well. He was a kid that played at Ryder for a couple years. Now he’s down in Norfolk, Philadelphia kid actually. I like them. I’ve got to be honest. I don’t mind laying the number here honestly. I think the number’s a little short. Look, Maryland Eastern Shore has no home crowd. Okay, let’s be honest. Nobody lives on the Eastern shore in January. They’re not going to this game. This team hasn’t played since before Christmas. Let’s also remember they have five wins. Three have come against Bryn Athyn, whatever that is, Clark Summit, sounds like a ski team and St Mary’s, which I think is some sort of seminary as far as I know.

Jeff Nadu:

I could be wrong there, but yeah, I’m not real interested. Look, they were decent against the number, but remember, those games they were covering were big double digit spreads. This is a small number. I think Norfolk State kind of flexes their muscles and kind of punches Eastern Shore back to the corner and says, “Get back in the corner now. Go back to the basement.” This is a bad basketball team. I like Norfolk State. I think they win by double digits, quite frankly.

T.J. Rives:

And again, the qualifier that Matt has and we illuminate this for the audience periodically here that sometimes, when these guys are having to make their play, because again, for BetUS and the graphics and everything that you see, they have a lock in a play by a certain time. The number went up on the money line. The price tag went up on the money line, but Matt took it at 11:00 a.m., got a good price, as he said, so let’s lock it in for him. He is on the Norfolk State money line. He’ll let it ride here. And he said, maybe even pair it up with Merrimack on the money line if you believe in them winning.

Jeff Nadu:

This is also, we’re talking about with the money line stuff. Again, these little games are going to, I mean, they’re going to move quick. It’s not like Matt. I don’t think any of us have played a money line ever above 110. I mean occasionally you’ll see it. I’ll do it occasionally. I’ll lay at 130 or 140. It’s not something I’m doing on a regular basis, but occasionally you got to do what works for you. I mean, the likelihood that Norfolk State wins here is quite high. And I think Matt’s got a good one here.

T.J. Rives:

Okay fair enough on game number three on our slate. We move on on our Monday schedule, and that includes a couple teams that we have talked about in the past here recently on this show, the Mercer Bears and The Citadel, this one at The Citadel in South Carolina, Mercer a four point favorite here on the road. Our total is 152. And the Big Man on Campus has a play for this game that is coming up this evening. This is not a matinee game. This is later tonight at seven Eastern time. Jeff Nadu, what are we thinking?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So a bit of injury concern for Citadel. They’re going to be without Hayden Brown, maybe without Hayden Brown. I shouldn’t say they’re going to be. There’s a possibility they will be. He’s their leading score. That could be a big loss, particularly on the offensive end. So that’s why for me, I couldn’t take a full game over, but I’m going to just zero in on Mercer here. I like this team a lot. I mean, this group offensively is solid. Recently, they’ve been really good. They got Jalen Johnson back, who’s a both side of the court player. Had 30 the other night over the weekend and defensively, he is a star. You look at Citadel, it seems like they’re back to their old tricks defensively. They’ve given up 81.3 points a game over the last six. Now that they’ve gotten into SoCo play, it’s the same song and dance with The Citadel Bulldogs.

Jeff Nadu:

They can’t defend. They’re getting dredged in transition. They just can’t do much of anything on that end. And when they play, the tempo turns up. I expect Mercer to really flex their muscles and really kind of do what they want on offensively. They’ve shot the ball really well this year. They’ve been terrific from the line. Citadel can’t guard without foul either, which is a complete mess. I think The Citadel’s defensive numbers are going to continue to go down, go down, go down. I like Mercer. I think they go on the road here and I think they get to 80. Again, last six games, Citadel, that’s been the average they’ve given up. I think Mercer gets into the 80s here. I’m going to play the team total, Mercer over 78.5. I think Citadel sucks defensively.

T.J. Rives:

Well, they’ve lost. They had that opening season shocker where they beat Pitt at Pitt, but they’ve lost five of their last six games. Matt, any input here on this, if no official play?

Matt Josephs:

So occasionally I like to look at, with some games like this, how a team, because when you play The Citadel, you know that you play their style. You go up and down. Some teams try really hard to resist it. Some teams embrace it. Now Mercer’s a little bit of a slower team. They were a slower team last year. They managed to put up over 80 both times, and you look at Mercer’s numbers and while they are a very slow team, they’re top 20 in three point percentage and they hit their free throws as well. So if somehow this is a close game and there’s late game fouling, that’s only going to benefit Jeff, in that his team is going to be able to hit free throws. Now I agree with him. I don’t think this is necessarily going to be close, but it’s a road game so maybe Citadel catches fire. But yeah, I could definitely see a path to his over. I definitely considered this over. It was on my list. I just didn’t love everything about in terms of Mercer on the road, but I could definitely see it. It was a potential play that got left off in the last run through. So I definitely like it.

T.J. Rives:

All right, let’s lock it in for Jeff Nadu and what he is on. He is on the Mercer team total of 78 here for the reasons he gave about Citadel defensively and what they’ve been giving up. Let’s see how that one works out. One more to go and then we’ll get to some question and answer period here. Always fun with that. And to get you guys involved in the show that are watching us on BetUS. So our final game on our Monday slate is Wagner and Fairleigh Dickinson. And this is a large 16.5 point line for Wagner on a Monday. Again, this is a night game, not a matinee. 145 is the total. We’re back to Mid Major Matt once again. He’s got a third play of the day officially. What do we like?

Matt Josephs:

So look, once again, this is another one where I got the number lower than it was. And then I like it still, though not as much. I’d back off the unit size in terms of how much because it went up a couple points. But if you look at this Fairleigh Dickinson team, they don’t play defense and they gave up 93 at Seton Hall, they gave up 87 at St. John’s. They gave up 89 at Princeton. They gave 82 to Virginia. That’s a lot for Virginia this year because their offense isn’t great. And they gave 81 at La Salle, and you just look at this Fairleigh Dickinson team. And it’s a perfect recipe for playing the opponent’s team total over because they’re a horrendous defense, 326 defending the two, 247 defending the three. And they’re really quick. And you look at this Wagner team.

Matt Josephs:

I think Wagner’s probably the best team in the Northeast Conference. They play defense and their offense is really efficient. You look at these last two home games, 81 against St. Francis of New York, 84 in overtime against Bryant. Now granted, overtime helped out that total. They scored 93 at home against Delaware State. And so they have shown they can be a ruthless offense when they want to be. And I think in this game, that’s going to be a blowout. You’re going to see a little bit of a ruthless offense. They scored 95 at Fairleigh Dickinson last year. They scored 76 at home against Fairleigh Dickinson with a little bit of a lesser offense. I think Wagner names their score here, as I said, I got it at a little bit lower than we’re giving it out, but that’s fine. I still think Wagner can name their total here and get to 85, 90 points if they really wanted to.

T.J. Rives:

Okay. Jeff Nadu, any thought on this one as well here? Again, we’ve gone with a lot of the mid-major conferences, any thought?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You know, when you look at Greg Herenda, solid coach. A couple years ago they went to the NCAA Tournament. He had some health problems. He’s been there a long time. Here’s the issue with Herenda. I mean, not one of his teams has ever been better than 295th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They don’t defend. I mean they let you do whatever you want. And I know we say that time and time again, but again, when a team is allowed to do their offense and play their offense and run their offense, teams like Wagner are going to punish you. Look, you don’t see these numbers much in conference, particularly in this conference. I wouldn’t have an issue with laying this number, quite honestly. I think Wagner win by 20 plus. This has the ability to get out of hand real quick, real quick.

Jeff Nadu:

And I think when you talk about what Matt mentioned, let’s just say Wagner 85, I think that’s fair here. I don’t know that FDU is going to score 65. When you play Bashir Mason, you need to do two things: shoot threes, which Fairleigh Dickinson can’t, because they’re going to zone the hell out of you and they’re going to also extend out and pressure you. That’s something else you’re going to do. FDU turns it over constantly. This is a bad, bad matchup. I think Wagner roll. Listen guys, Wagner is as far as KenPom’s concerned, 117th in his rankings. Turn to any seed team. That’s crazy. That’s doesn’t happen often. Matt knows that. That’s crazy. This is a real good basketball team. I’m going to be disappointed if they don’t get to the NCAA Tournament because I’ll tell you right now, one of these two or one seeds better watch out. Wagner is much better than I think any standard 15 or 16 if they get there. This is a real good basketball team.

Matt Josephs:

Well, and I watched them in that VCU game. I mean they grinded that thing to a halt. And they went into the Siegel Center, where teams don’t necessarily win and they basically pummeled VCU. Now granted, look VCU’s offense wasn’t great in the beginning. There was no easy ball, but to win a game 58 44 at the Siegel Center in a 61 possession game, that’s pretty good to win by 14 in a 61 possession game.

Jeff Nadu:

And also keep in mind, you’re going, you’re traveling in this conference is not easy. I mean it’s not like you’re getting great situations here. The weather’s not good on here. I’m sure the travel wasn’t particularly good. So yeah, I think this is a rough spot. FDU’s 1-11. I think it’s starting to sink in. Look, they’re 1-1 in conference, but I think this one gets out of hand quick. I agree with Matt’s play.

T.J. Rives:

Yeah. Travel’s been a disaster the last 24 hours because of the snowstorms in the eastern half of the country, in particular in the Southeast Atlanta, Charlotte, the airports and closures, a mess on that. I love Jeff saying the feeling that things could get out of hand very quickly. That was kind of the feeling I had down the sideline yesterday when the Buccaneer game became 14-0, which you choose Eagles. It could get out of hand very quickly and it eventually became 31-0. Too soon? You’re my guys. You don’t have to beat yourself.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, listen, TJ, here’s the truth of the matter, okay? I told you before, I didn’t think the Eagles had what it took to even win a playoff game so I didn’t really care if they made the playoffs. As I told you, I bet against them yesterday. I thought they’d get crushed and they did. There’s a lot to work out with this team. The Bucs are really good. I have to wonder if they’ll ever lose again. They might go back to back.

T.J. Rives:

We’ll see, we’ll see. Long way to go, but they got that one yesterday. Let’s get back to this game and lock it in officially for Mid Major Matt. Again, the play for him is on the Wagner team total. He uses the disclaimer. He loved it at a lesser number. It is now a larger number. So he likes it at this number. Is that fair? You like it at this number.

Matt Josephs:

Correct. I mean, look, it’s a couple points. It’s not that big, it’s an extra basket by a walk on, but I’m just saying if we’re playing, if I played three units on this, I’d go like 2.5 or 2.25 on this one now. But I mean, obviously that’s not what I’m doing. I don’t play three units for the most part on team totals, but you know what I’m saying?

T.J. Rives:

Okay, fair enough. All right so there we go on the official plays. Let’s get to some Q&A, I might even throw in something here as well. Again, a lot of matinees going on as we do this show live in the one Eastern time hour, Purdue and Illinois are battling right now in Big 10 play. This is by design, national television on FOX cable. And it’s a double header situation because Notre Dame is coming up with a game against Howard University of Washington, DC area for Martin Luther King Day. So that’s coming up later on today. Some other games as well, there’s a Pac-12 matinee. Indiana’s playing this afternoon. So you’re seeing some of that with the holiday. Let’s see somebody by the handle of Canes Nation is watching the show and says, “Hey, Nadu, any thoughts on the Penn game for tonight?” We already talked La Salle, St. Joe’s. He’s staying in the Philly area. What about it?

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t have much. I mean, Princeton’s been without Llewellyn as far as I know. I don’t know if he’s back yet. Probably a pretty good offensive game. Both these offenses are pretty good. So I think we could see some baskets here, but I don’t bet a ton of Ivy league. It’s just not one of my conferences. So I don’t have much on Penn and Princeton, especially with the injury to Llewellyn, who I think is one of their better players.

T.J. Rives:

And again, that’s a matinee, 4 o’clock Ivy League game. Matt, did you have any thought on that or you just want to move on?

Matt Josephs:

No, but I will give some information to people who are watching now. We can kind of react to it. I mean, it’s smaller because the game’s coming up at 2 o’clock. George Washington will be without Brendan Adams, Ricky Lindo and Noel Brown due to non-COVID injuries. So they’re going to have six rotation regulars and George Mason, who has not played since New Year’s, does not appear to be shorthanded, that game in Foggy Bottom. And that’s a couple of look, GW stinks, but that’s a couple of key guys who are averaging points for a team that struggles to score points. And so we may see maybe a style change if they’re only playing six rotation guys and only two of them average more than 22 minutes. So that’s something that kind of puts your mind on for the GW-George Mason game coming up at the top of the hour.

T.J. Rives:

All right. Steven wants to know watching us live on the BetUS College Basketball show for a Monday. “He said I faded Dartmouth against Penn. What about today against Harvard?” Dartmouth blows, according to him. Again, I saw a head shake from Nadu, not much on the Ivy league to begin with. Matt, any thought on this?

Matt Josephs:

I mean, Dartmouth’s not very good, and Harvard usually is pretty good. I mean, once again much like Jeff, I don’t do a lot. I dabbled in the Cornell team totals when they were scoring 80 points a game, but now they’ve had a couple of injuries, so they’re not as good. I couldn’t even BS you anything here with regards to information. Harvard’s usually good. Dartmouth’s usually not good. That’s about all I could tell you.

T.J. Rives:

I will give you this. Yeah, go ahead.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say, I mean, the individual said that Dartmouth sucks, I think he said. I mean, look, they’re not good win loss, but I mean, every game they play is seemingly pretty close. I mean, know for a fact they played Stanford really close.

T.J. Rives:

I was going there. I was going there. There you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, played Cornell close, played Cal close. This team’s scrappy. They’re at home here. I mean, this is a short number. I think people are kind of goaded in. Harvard’s a small favorite here. Listen, if Dartmouth get hot from three, which they’re very capable of, this one can get ugly quick. There’s a couple of things that Dartmouth do well, make free throws and threes. They don’t turn it over, which is the great way to win as an underdog. Now it’s not a big underdog, but you’re at home here as well. So yeah, I don’t know. I wouldn’t be running to play Harvard. Dartmouth could be scrappy today.

T.J. Rives:

For what it’s worth, was it the Stanford game either very close or an overtime game. And I’m looking, the final margin was 11, but I think they pushed them like to overtime in that game, out in Northern California.

Jeff Nadu:

They did. I think Dartmouth scored just like two points in overtime. I think it’s one of those games where they just kind of, but yeah, the game was great. I mean, they were right in it the whole time.

T.J. Rives:

What is that worth though from mid-December now a month later, we don’t know. We’ll find out. Again, that is an Ivy League matinee. Somebody’s also asking, Sean wants to know about Notre Dame-Howard game. He’s looking to maybe bet it. Again, it’s a matinee at Howard. He says, is it a trap game? What do you guys think?

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t think, look, Notre Dame is significantly better than Howard University. Look, credit to Notre Dame for taking this game. I mean, this is a tough scheduling spot in the middle of the season in an out of conference, got to go down to DC. Look, Howard’s done some cool things. I mean, they were able to get Makur Maker to go there. Blakeney’s done okay. But I don’t know. I have to wonder if Brey really wants to, I’m sure a lot of people will mention, are you really going to like drill them here? I don’t think. I think they’ll kind of call the dogs off if they’re up, but yeah, I don’t have much here. It’s the middle of the season. You should not be betting out of conference game, especially a game with Notre Dame against [inaudible 00:34:50] acting.

T.J. Rives:

It is clearly a made for TV Martin Luther King afternoon game, national TV on FOX. They are laying 11. Matt, any thought here on this?

Matt Josephs:

I almost wish there was like a 10 minute bet like in the first half. I think Howard can hang around. I mean, you look at the two times they punched up. They lost 100 to 81 to Villanova. In the first half of the first half, they were down by four. They were down eight at halftime at Villanova. Now we wonder, how much did the Wildcats care? And then you look at the Georgetown game, they were up in the first 10 minutes and then Georgetown came back. They were only down seven and pulled away. This is one of those things where I feel like Howard can get some early momentum in this game, but eventually, Notre Dame talent’s going to wear them down, I would say. And as Jeff said, do you really want to blow out somebody in a situation like this? I think Mike Brey doesn’t want to do something like that. So, I mean I wish there was like an early way to kind of, let’s just say this. If Howard gets up early, maybe look Notre Dame live because I think Howard’s going to have a lot of momentum early, but then eventually it’s just going to wear off and Notre Dame’s going to take over as the more talented team.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say as well. Look, I’m usually lauding this chat for the questions, but these are dreadful. I mean some of these questions, I mean these are really bad.

T.J. Rives:

Let me help. All right, Utah and Arizona State is a Pac-12 matinee. Arizona State is the home favorite. We rarely get this on a Monday afternoon. Do we have any thought here on this? I know Utah has started 1-6 in the Pac-12, but only a two point road underdog here to Arizona State. Does that help?

Jeff Nadu:

This is what? A 1 or 2 o’clock start out on the West Coast on a Monday. Listen, both these teams I think you zone the hell out of your opponent. I mean, neither of these teams could shoot. I think this is an ugly game. I think it’s first to 65 wins. I mean Arizona State, every game they play is low scoring. I mean, it’s just they’re hard to watch. So I would lean under, another dreadful game.

T.J. Rives:

All right, fair enough. A couple more-

Matt Josephs:

I don’t know how you could be so bad offensively with, I mean, Marreon Jackson was really good at Toledo and you look at Muhammad from Ohio State and Heath was at Boston College, and these guys weren’t terrible on their own teams. And now somehow you put them all together and their offense is in the 300s. Pac-12 teams outside of Washington shouldn’t have offensive numbers this horrendous. And I don’t understand. Bobby Hurley is a joke as a coach.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I think, yeah, I think I’ll tell you that that’s the reason. Bobby Hurley sucks. Listen, I’m not one of the people that I’m never going to say like just because Michael Jordan was good doesn’t mean his kid should be good. I get that, but listen, to have the father that he did. I mean, Bob Hurley, Sr. is I think arguably the greatest high school coach in the history of American basketball. I mean, he’s that good.

T.J. Rives:

Certainly one of them, right?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean I feel like both of the sons are not great. They aren’t, particularly this one. He’s terrible out of Tempe. I mean, Matt’s right. I mean, they should be better, but this goes to show you that going from Toledo to Pac-12 is not maybe as easy you think, but with that offense, the way they run, he’s just not a good coach.

T.J. Rives:

Okay. Matinee there again, Indiana is at Nebraska and Indiana has taken a couple of losses recently. Is there any thought of a trap there? They’re a heavy favorite or at least a significant favor of it on the road at Nebraska. And I’m looking. That one is at five local time in Lincoln, six Eastern time coming up. Any thoughts on that one, guys for Monday?

Jeff Nadu:

Seems like anytime Nebraska has like a home game that it’s like oh, maybe they’ll hang around and be prickly today. They get their doors caved in. They’re not a good defensive team. I think Trayce Jackson-Davis probably does whatever he wants in this game. It’s really going to be a question of can Nebraska keep up with the score. I think they’re better than in years past, but I’ve been known over the years to realize that in Nebraska, you think they’re going to hang around and keep up, they don’t. I don’t think you’re going to see like a Northwestern upset here. Nebraska is bad, and I think it’s going to take time. I will say real quick. I don’t know if this question’s been asked. Matt Josephs had, what was the Wagner team total? I think another one in that same conference today would be Bryant.

Jeff Nadu:

Bryant hasn’t necessarily been that great offensively that we’ve seen in years past, but they’re finally in conference and at home today. They got a matchup that really should suit them. St. Francis lets you run whatever offense you want to run. I think Bryant has a big day offensively today as well. So I kind of missed the cut on getting this on the outline, but it’s 78.5. I think there’s two team totals, the one Matt mentioned and then this one that I think are both pretty damn good bets.

T.J. Rives:

Like that. One more, and Mid Major Matt I’ll come to you for it. It is tonight and in the west. It is at six local time, eight Eastern time, Nevada hosting a 12-2 Wyoming team. Nevada is the home favorite with the home court advantage. Any input on this one for somebody that might be interested in that game out in the Mountain West?

Matt Josephs:

I thought it was very impressive that Wyoming went to Utah State, so having not played since Christmas over the weekend and went and won the game outright. I tried to fade them in the first half thinking there might be some rust and Utah State might beat them up a little bit. It was tied at halftime. So that was an unfortunate loser, but Wyoming’s got some momentum here. Now look, the quick turnaround’s a bit of a concern, but Nevada is such a wild card. I mean you just watched Boise State coming off of their long COVID pause, go into Nevada and win the game outright. Not only win the game outright, but look a whole lot better than them. So I don’t necessarily trust Nevada here, but it is a short number. I lean to Wyoming in this one. They’re shooting the ball really well. They play really good defense and I really like their coach and that’s kind of the recipes for road victories, especially in conference.

T.J. Rives:

Okay. And again, that Wyoming team 12-2. Jeff, any other thoughts there on that with Nevada?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’ll tell you this. They beat them last year both times. I’m going to tell you, conference winners, the markets rate them in a regular season, from regular season. Wyoming is 12 to 1 to win this conference. I played that this morning. I think this is a really good team. I mean, it’s not easy to go there and play. Linder’s terrific. I think Ike and Maldonado are just really difficult to guard. Don’t sleep on Wyoming, man. 12-2. Only losses are to Stanford on a neutral. I think that was the one at the Bahamas or one of those tournaments. And then to Arizona, they got beat up in that game. But the team to keep your eye on, Wyoming’s real good. Already beat Utah State in Logan over the weekend. So yeah, I have them in a future. I think they can win this conference.

T.J. Rives:

A little tip there as well for the audience. We’re just giving out tips everywhere. Let’s circle back around to the best bets for the guys off the slate for today. There are five games on the card that our handicappers are playing. I won’t go over every single one of them. Interesting that Matt is on the Norfolk State money line for the reasons that he shared and some team total overs as well for those different games that are coming up this afternoon and tonight. Boys, are we pretty well good for a Monday? A lot of matinee basketball as we get off the show here again live. The Purdue-Illinois game will be ending. We mentioned Notre Dame is coming up in a matinee. George Mason, George Washington in a matinee. All of that is per to the Martin Luther King holiday. We’re going to get to see some Monday afternoon hoops, not typical right now in a January Monday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Looking forward to it, nice to have it occasionally. I’m not a big fan of the matinee stuff, but hey, anytime we could have some hoops, that’s great.

T.J. Rives:

Some better than none. And there are some makeup games tonight as well in some of these conferences because they’ve been on COVID pause. We’re taking advantage of Monday as well. Matt Josephs, any final thought from you here before we’re done?

Matt Josephs:

I think I saw the stat that there’s 35 D-1 games tonight. That’s like the most we usually get on a Monday, which I think is fantastic. Because usually in my mind, Monday cards are not the greatest. So I’ll enjoy this to have a lot of different conferences instead of the usual ones we get on this day.

T.J. Rives:

I love that about these guys. Great job with this stuff. Thank you, Jeff Nadu, The Big Man on Campus. Mid Major Matt, Matt Josephs. We appreciate both of you hanging out here with us on a Monday, gentlemen.