TJ:
We are back in for a Thursday edition of the bet us college basketball show. I am merely the somewhat capable host. These are the guys that you are here for, Kyle Hunter and the big man on campus Jeff Nadu, back aboard and ready to talk up a Thursday slate that’s going to have some very interesting games. We’re going to get underway with the Top 25 game at 5:00 Eastern Time in the Big Ten. And it goes all the way through the evening, including UCLA back in action. Bruins have been busy trying to make up a couple of COVID pause games. They’ll be playing Cal at home later on the night. Anyway. Good to be with you. And it’s good to be with these guys. Kyle Hunter, welcome back for a second time this week. Good to have you back aboard.
Kyle Hunter:
Good to be back. We got a big slate of games here today. Some pretty exciting games. Good under-the-radar games and good big-name games as well.
TJ:
We love finding both of those. Big man, how are you feeling off of a Wednesday night that had a lot of wild action, close games, overtime games, et cetera? How are things?
Jeff Nadu:
Pretty good. Good to be back as always. We finish out another week here, hopefully on a high note.
TJ:
Yeah, we certainly saw some performances. Marquette, who we talked about yesterday on the show, very impressive against Seton Hall. Guys, I saw… Again, I’m based in the South. I’m based in Florida. I gravitate towards some of the games in the SCC and the ACC, obviously just by attrition and being in the region. Georgia Tech, very impressive against Florida State last night. A great finish to LSU and Texas A and M with a loud environment in Baton Rouge and LSU pulled it out. Jeff, you’ve been talking about this. Without Pinson, without four of their key contributing players that play a lot of minutes for them, LSU still found a way to win that game last night. There was some teams gutting it out last night in college basketball.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Without Pinson, they’re two and three, no covers though. I think they have one cover. I think the only cover they had was Florida, but outside of that, yeah, no covers. I mentioned this on Twitter. I actually ended up playing it right before the game after we got some good news on Pinson and Days. I didn’t understand why they were 10-point favored without those two. I’m being honest. I don’t know if there’s any team in the… They should be a 12-point favorite, 11-point, 10-point favor against anyone in the SCC without those two. They continue to just get by. They had to rally late to even get the win and good for them for doing that. And ultimately, none of this will matter because they’ll all come back and everybody will be healthy. But right now, this is a team that you just can’t bet on. So yeah, I would keep rocking, betting against them until those guys are back.
TJ:
Yeah. It’s curious what LSU has been able to put together. And again, Texas A and M was valiant. The crowd definitely affected things. I don’t know in Kyle Hunter’s career, if you ever had a buzzer-beater, much less off of one foot at mid-court off the backboard, like Charlie Moore of Miami last night at Virginia Tech, Kyle Hunter. Was he making young Kyle Hunter there from mid-court? What’s the deal?
Kyle Hunter:
I never had any big buzzer-beaters. I did play basketball. I wouldn’t consider myself a great basketball player. I was better at baseball. But that kind of shot, you’re going to remember that one the rest of your lives and that’s the one that he’s going to be telling his grandkids and his great-grandkids about for many years. And it’s pretty awesome to have it on film like that. Yeah, that was great.
Jeff Nadu:
I actually had Miami plus five and I was hoping… In those situations, you don’t want to go to overtime, especially on the road. And as Kyle said, Charlie Moore is an interesting story. He’s been in about four different programs since he came into college basketball. He’s been at Kansas, been at Cal, been at DePaul, now another program, and he’s having some success. They just continue getting it done. Larrañaga, there’s been talk in previous years, maybe he’s going to retire. He is getting older but in Miami’s 15 and five. I think you make a strong, strong case, they’re the second-best team or the third-best team in the ACC. Good for them and good for Moore.
TJ:
Yeah, they’re right up there. My line always is, “Charlie Moore has been passed around, like the offering played at church it seems like with all these different programs.” But he’s found a home in South Florida. And again, for those that did not see it, he makes the shot from mid-court, and then he circled to the right and the whole Miami team followed him and they ran right out the one entrance exit tunnel at Castle Colosseum at Virginia Tech. Goodnight, everybody. Drive home safely. Players are gone. And Jim Larrañaga, his coaches are the only ones to go through the handshake line and shake hands with the Virginia Tech coaches and players as that one ended. A wild ending in that one last evening for sure.
Kyle Hunter:
TJ?
TJ:
Yeah, go ahead.
Kyle Hunter:
Can I add one more thing about Miami here real quick while we’re on it? Miami ranked 62nd in KenPom’s ratings. And I think this is a good point to bring up because I know a lot of people use KenPom’s information and I like KenPom site, but 62nd is awfully low for Miami here at this point. And the reason that Ken Palm is so low on them is the pre-season expectations are still baked into it. And it turns out Miami is a lot better than what preseason expectations were. You might be able to continue to find betting value on them because something that shapes the market is still so low on them.
Jeff Nadu:
Also remember, as I’ve said before, look, I like Ken Pom as well. I think it’s the most complete compiled stats site you have in college basketball. I think if you’re betting college basketball, it is imperative that you buy it and have it. That being said, that is a hundred percent true. We have to also remember like I said yesterday, they do not account injuries into lines. Right?
Kyle Hunter:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay. That’s why… And again, I think there’s value because when you look at bookmakers, a lot of the time they’re going off KenPom’s information, it’s pretty simple. 60 seconds is too high. And they’re a Top 30 team, I think. Yeah, that’s very true. And I think all these predictive sites, there are a couple, I think Bart Turek, you can actually adjust it to not take the preseason bias in it. You have to take this with a grain of salt, all great products. I think KenPom is a great compiler of stats, but again, day-to-day… Look, if Pinson and Days are out, the truth that a matter is LSU is not a 10-point favor against A and M. they’re just not. Remember there’s no injuries in account for those lines.
TJ:
Well, that’s a good point that you make. And I was going to joke, it may fall flat now because it’s a little later, ask Duke if they’re the 62nd team in the country-
Jeff Nadu:
Right.
TJ:
Because they came into Cameron outplayed them and beat them. And you’re right. They’re in the top three of the ACC, which is one of the top two or three leagues right now in all the different rankings. So Miami has looked good. And again, ifs and buts, they’re behind… What was it? Jeff, help me and Kyle, you may remember, they were behind 22 at the half to Florida State and roared back and had a possession at the end of that game Saturday to win down by one, taking that loss at home or else they would be on a nice little win streak here with the half-court shot.
Jeff Nadu:
And as well, another thing that we have to remember, and this is why whenever someone comes to me and is like, “Oh, what do you think about ranking?” I don’t care about rankings at all in any level, because to me, you know what the best rank is? The eye test.
TJ:
The eye test.
Jeff Nadu:
And what do I know about these teams? For instance, Kyle mentioned 62nd for Miami, Florida state is not 72nd in the country. Come on, give me a break. You look at some of these other teams. Saint Bonaventure is not 89th. When it matters most, these are better teams than where they’re being slotted. And that’s why rankings to me mean very little when we’re looking at gambling, they just don’t mean anything.
TJ:
All right, we’ll keep that in mind. Good stuff. What does mean something is our record. We’ll take a look at that record right now and see how the guys are doing. The big man on campus, one in one last night with his plays, he and Cameron had a couple of wins, including Oklahoma State last night with that matchup with Iowa State. Iowa State comes in and gets the win at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Did you boys see the stat there? As you see our totals and our records when we come back with you here on the Thursday Show. The last win for Iowa State on the road in the Big 12, I believe it was 23 or 24 road games ago. It is February of three years ago. February of 2019 is the last time they won a road game. But if they got one last night in Stillwater for Iowa State. And if you were with us yesterday, Ian Cameron was on that play. I don’t know if you boys knew that about how inept the Cyclones had been the last three years on the road.
Jeff Nadu:
I did not know that. And looking back on last night, one other thing I’ll say, on one of the plays that I mentioned, VMI, they’ve been good to me. They’ve probably been of the more profitable teams I’ve had over the last couple of years. Guys, I got to be honest. I’m pretty sick to my stomach that didn’t come in. That game was within eight the entire time. VMI, TJ, had 14 points over the first 15 minutes of the second half. Over the last five minutes, zero as far as I know.
TJ:
Wow.
Jeff Nadu:
I think maybe they had a couple of free-throws, but they didn’t have a field goal over the first final five minutes. They ended up losing by 15, getting nine, pretty rough. But again, Furman just continues. Over the last three games, this team has made 53 3-pointers over the last three games. That’s pretty incredible. They are not missing right now, for the most part.
TJ:
You were sharing that. They have been good. They’ve been lining it up. I was just looking. Again, we check different resources. The NCAA’s official metric is the net ranking. And I was looking for Miami a couple of times in the net ranking. I finally found it. As of yesterday, it isn’t updated as of today, they’re 66th. I don’t know what the Virginia Tech win does to move them up in the net, but I agree with you guys. You watch them play. They look better than the 66th or the 62nd team in the country. Sometimes you do got to use the eyes, use the eyeball test on that.
TJ:
All right, let’s get to it. This is what the peeps are here for. Let’s get to game number one. It’s a CAA game tonight, the Colonial where Charleston is hosting Hofstra. Hofstra is the road favorite laying three, the total at 159. And we’re back to the big man on campus. He’s got the first official play for the show on a Thursday. What is it and why, sir?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, Hofstra, they’ve been a regular of mine. I bet them a lot this year. Look, 78 points a game, one of the better offenses in the country. They play this four-guard lineup, very big in pick and roll. They love to run pick and roll. They’ve gotten their best guard back, Zach Cooks. He was out for a couple of weeks with an injury. He came back at 19 the other night and they blew out a Northeastern 72-50. Now, a low-scoring game. They won by 22 and there was only 122 points scored. Obviously, the defensive numbers were up. I think this game though is a much different game from a pay standpoint. We have talked about it on this show occasionally, we talk about tempo. Actually, we talk about it every game. Charleston is number one in the country in possession length. They run pat Kelsey’s offense. They’re very fast. This is an up and down game. It’s going to be a higher-scoring game. There’s going to be a good pace here.
Jeff Nadu:
And when I look at Hofstra, I really like this team, particularly offensively as I said. I also look at their ability on the road the last couple of years. This has been a very good road team against the number. They’ve been good offensively. They’ve had no trouble scoring. This is Charleston defense that is grading out very low from a pick and roll defense stand. But I think they get roasted all night in the pick and roll. I also, look, like Hofstra against the number, I’m not crazy about it because I think this is a high-scoring game. I think this is like 85, 83, 87, 82, something like that. What I trust here is one thing and that’s Hofstra’s four-guard pick and roll lineup. I think they roast Charleston defensively. This is a team that whenever they face an up-tempo attack, they have gotten punished.
Jeff Nadu:
And you look at Hofstra. It’s not like they’re just scoring against nobodies. This is a team that scored against Iona, scored against Houston, scored against Arkansas. This is a team that against any defense that can’t defend the pick and roll, they get absolutely roasted. I like Hofstra. I like their team total over, I think to get mid-eighties in this game.
TJ:
All right. Kyle, any thought from you on this one if no official play?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. I want to start out by saying that Jeff is right that Hofstra has played good on the road. They rank 110th and road court success when it comes to Haslametrics, another site that I use, which is a pretty nice website. Charleston is actually 339th when it comes to home-court advantage. They have not played well at home at all. And another stat here, Hofstra is really quick at turning turnovers into points and Charleston does turn the ball over quite a bit. In fact, they are 22nd out of 358 in the country in turning steals into breakaway scores. And that’s a steal and score within five seconds. That’s really good for points, certainly. Charleston being number one in tempo in the country is great for points in this one. I have no doubt the tempo is going to be fast in this one. The only way you lose an over is if the shooting percentages are low.
Kyle Hunter:
Hofstra has a really high rim and three rate, which to me, I view that as a good thing. I don’t want them taking the long twos that are a low-quality shot. Charleston ranks in the bottom 30 in the country in fouls as well. And I think Jeff has mentioned this before. Hofstra always shoots really well from the free-throw line, 80.1% from the free-throw line, not a team that always gets there a lot, but 80.1%. And you’re taking on a team that fouls bottom 30 in the country in fouls committed. I had a strong lean to the over in this game. I had this one pegged about 160. Now, the line has gotten worse here today. I do agree with isolating Hofstra on the team total over, so I do like this one.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind as well, in the half-court or in transition, really, look, they haven’t shot the ball from three real well. 33 and a half percent, it’s middle of the pack. But when we look at Hofstra, as Kyle alluded to, coming off screens that mid-range. While it is not a high percentage shot, and I’d prefer they get to the rim, there’s one thing about Hofstra that we have to mention. They are third in the country in mid-range percentage, 47%, which is… Look, the mid-range is a shot that’s long lost in the new game of basketball. Kids want to be these Steph Curry fall-away jumper shooters from three. I don’t know how many times, one of the most annoying things about hoops nowadays is when you’re down two, this settling for fade-away threes to end the game, get to the rim, get to the basket. Why are we still doing this?
TJ:
Amen.
Jeff Nadu:
But again, the mid-range jump shot is lost in this game. And there’s some kids nowadays, like Juzang at UCLA, one of my favorites, because he is so good. Rick Hamilton made a career and got to one of the NBA finals on his ability to make jump shots. Serge Ibaka, one of the greatest mid-range shooters you’ll find. Just he doesn’t look like it, but the kid was electric from mid-range. That’s huge in someone’s game. And Hofstra is really good at it. And they learned from the best. Speedy Claxton was a hell of a guard, not only at Hofstra but in the NBA. Yeah, I love this offense. I enjoy watching them play.
TJ:
It’s a great point that you make, it is just nonexistent, the middle game. Seemingly at the grassroots to the middle school, high school level, it’s almost stamped out. And it’s almost ingrained in them, don’t take a 10-foot shot. Don’t take a 15-foot shot. Either go to the basket like you were saying, or bomb away for three, but there needs to be some middle ground. Where it’s crazy is a 10-foot shot, an eight-foot shot that is open. And somebody that’s good at it that’s closer is better… I don’t care what analytic person is trying to preach this, is better than a hand in your face contested three from 24 feet away, 23 feet away. And it’s just been stamped out. It basically has been stamped out of the game. A lot of it is the NBA and the highlights. I’m blaming them. What do we see on the highlight? Three-point shots and dunks. There’s nothing about the middle game and scoring anymore in the middle game. Good point that you make on that.
TJ:
Again, the big man is rooting for offense, offense, offense in particular from Hofstra. Let’s lock it in. He’s on the team total for Hofstra tonight to go over 81 points in this game on the road with Charleston.
Jeff Nadu:
Hey, TJ.
TJ:
Yes, sir.
Jeff Nadu:
As Bruce Lee says, “Practice makes perfect. After a long time of practicing, our work will become natural, skillful, swift, and steady.”
TJ:
Did Bruce say all of that?
Jeff Nadu:
He did.
TJ:
Or you just made that up?
Jeff Nadu:
No, he did.
TJ:
Just checking.
Jeff Nadu:
Definitely said it.
TJ:
I didn’t watch a lot of his movies for the lines and the sayings. I watched them for the action.
Jeff Nadu:
I know.
TJ:
So I’m buying into whatever it is that you’re saying. I’m just trying to make sure that when you put that out there, that Bruce actually said all that, the Bruce Lee. All right. Somehow we segue to Morehead State in Southeast Missouri. Let’s do it. Shall we? That is up next. And SEMO is a five-and-a-half-point underdog at home. Morehead State coming in. The total at 146 for this when we go to Kyle Hunter for the official play.
Kyle Hunter:
Southeast Missouri State, they can’t defend anything. They’ve been terrible defensively all year. They ranked 342nd in the country in defensive efficiency. They’re worst defensively at defending post-up offense. Guess who has a good big man who can post up a lot? That’s Morehead State with Johni Broome, a really good big man who’s excellent defensively, especially, and also good offensively in the post. Morehead State, it seems like they’ve just been undervalued year after year here the last couple years, this is a team that is very high-quality team. Southeast Missouri State only has one game in the OVC that’s finished with less than 148 points. That was against Eastern Illinois. And we’ve talked about Eastern Illinois a lot. We’re going to talk about them again here in a minute. And that one had 145 points. That’s a lot of points for an Eastern Illinois game, certainly. Four of Southeast Missouri State’s, six games in the OVC have had 164 points or more. Some of these are just insanely high-scoring games.
Kyle Hunter:
Morehead State, a good offensive rebounding team. They’re going to get second chances here in this game definitely. There’s one weakness of the Morehead State defense, and that’s defending the three-point line. Fortunately for Southeast Missouri State, that’s their strength and they’re shooting 40.2% from long range inside the conference. Both of these two teams, really good at getting to the free-throw line, Top 75 in the country. I think we see a lot of free throws. Both teams can expose the opposing defense. I think Morehead State wins this game by several points. I think they should probably be favored by a little bit more than they are here, but I’m going to take the over. Over 146 for me on this one.
TJ:
All right. Jeff, a thought on this, if no opinion.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, this is right in my wavelength where I want Morehead State. I’ve noticed over the last three weeks, four weeks, this team is rolling quite honestly. They haven’t lost since December 15th. They’ve beaten Belmont. They’ve beaten some teams. They’ve also played a lot of bad teams in this conference. The problem that I’ve noticed is when they’re listing in the 12, 13, 14 range, they’re not getting it done. And quite honestly, they only have one win in this time where they won by more than 20. And it’s interesting because the only time I bet them was that game against IUPY. They won that game by 28 so I was very happy with the outcome. Now again, what I said though, is they’re not getting the job done laying big numbers. This is the number I want them laying 5, 6, 7, just having to win by low teens, that kind of a 10 range.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t want to lay 13 or 14, but six, I have some interest. Great breakdown by Kyle as usual. Broome is terrific. He’s an NBA talent. Ta’lon Cooper has been terrific for them on the wing. They have great guard play as well. I think they really admonish a SEMO here. Beat them both last year in both games, both on the road and at home by double digits, I believe. This is the range I want Morehead. I’m not going to make the joke that I was going to make. Let me just go past that. I like Morehead State here to get the job done. I also like Kyle’s overplay. I like the team total for Morehead State. I think there’s a lot of angles to look for here. I have this as a double-digit victory.
TJ:
For once, Nadu caught himself to not be a meme on the internet about what he was about to say. I like that about that. Yeah, Morehead State, very interesting as you were just saying. Now, two of the wins are over Tennessee State as of late, but to your point, they beat them by 13 once, they beat them by seven another time in this recent win streak. They only won by three over SIU Edwardsville. And the other one was a nine-point win over Belmont is one of the better teams in the league. So again, when you’re talking about you’re in the range here of a five or six-point spread, a little more favorable. However, we lock it in for Kyle Hunter and he is doing so on the over total here. Again, he wants scoring, scoring, scoring from both of these teams going over 146. We come off of that game.
TJ:
We stay in the Midwestern part of the country. Go north though, to Iowa City and the Hawkeyes or as Musburger always called them the Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes getting two at home with Purdue. I’m a bit surprised just on the surface here, Purdue only laying two points. The total at 154. Purdue, one of the best teams in America. They’re very fun to watch. All right, big man on campus, what is your thought here with a play on this one tonight in the Big Ten?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I remember the first time these two teams played. It’s been a while ago it seems like, but if we remember Purdue won the game 77-70, Iowa had a furious comeback. They came up short. They didn’t have Keegan Murray in that game, didn’t play a minute and they only lost by seven. Now they’re back into Iowa City. Look, I’ll come out and say it right away. I think the over is a good bet here. Is it the bet I’m making? No, but I think it’s a strong bet. The truth is Purdue is absolutely horrific in stopping ball screens and on-ball defense, like defending on on-ball, they just can’t do it. They get whisked by. They’re a bad defensive team. Every team they played, Indiana destroyed them in ball screens and off the dribble and on the dribble.
Jeff Nadu:
This is a bad defensive team. I think this is one of his worst defensive teams in Matt Painter’s career. They just can’t defend. And it’s only going to get worse going on the road. You look at since the start of I believe 2018. This Purdue team has been bad as a road team. I think they’re 15 and 23 on the road against the spread. They just don’t get the job done. And at home, there haven’t been many better teams over the last couple of years than Iowa, 29 and 14 against the spread over the last 43 games at home. They’ve just been sparkling in that building. I just don’t trust Purdue defensively.
Jeff Nadu:
I think Iowa with Murray back, he’s one of the best players in the country. Do I think Iowa struggles a little bit defensively? Yeah, they always do. But at home, in a charged-up matchup, I got to tell you, in the first matchup, I didn’t think they did that bad defensively given the circumstances. Purdue is rolling. I think Iowa gets some revenge here with their best player back and the best player in the court back. I’m just not a big fan of Purdue away from home. I think Iowa gets the job done in a high-scoring game, 82-79, something like that. I think they win the game.
TJ:
All right, Kyle, any thoughts here on this matchup? Carver-Hawkeye Arena as it’s known is where this one will be coming up tonight. Any thoughts?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. First, as far as the marketplace, I’d just like to throw some of this out, especially since I’m at big totals better. Last night, this total was sitting at 158 and a half. Now, it sits 154. Last night, I sat there and looked at that one for a little bit and thought, “Maybe I should bet the under, come back and bet the over later,” because all Big Ten totals that are set really high, always get bet down. It’s just the marketplace bets an under. I wish I would’ve done it. You could have a four and a half point middle. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one drops another half point or so. Sometimes that’s something to keep in mind is you want to get the best entry price you can. For viewers and listeners out there, if you see one of these Big Ten totals at 155, 160, it’s almost always going to go down so you want to wait for the best number there.
Kyle Hunter:
Jaden Ivey missed the last game for Purdue, expected to play in this game still less than 100%. Jeff knows this. Jaden Ivey is one of the best players in the country, certainly him at anything less than a hundred percent slows down Purdue by a lot. If I was a Purdue fan, the thing that would concern me the most about this game is Purdue’s transition defense, which has been really bad. They’re 70th in half-court defense, 229th in transition defense. And nobody in the Big Ten is getting out in transition as much as Fran McCaffrey’s Iowa team. Iowa is going to be out in transition a lot. You would think they would score here. I looked specifically at some of the player numbers on shot quality. Trayveon Williams has just gradually gotten worse. We remember a couple of years ago when he was really looking good. Williams is in the 50th percentile, according to shot quality and player efficiency so far this year, he’s gotten too many minutes and key moments at the end of the game.
Kyle Hunter:
Painter, I think is a pretty good coach, but Edey is so much better than Trayveon Williams at this point. Anybody can watch the game and be like, “Why is Williams in here at this point?” In the first game, Williams had way more minutes than did Edey. If that happens again here, I think Iowa is going to win. We’ll see what happens on that one. And Jeff is completely right that Keegan Murray not playing last time, they’re totally different. Jeff is convincing me that Iowa could be a good look here. I think I’m going to pass on this game because I still think Purdue has a really high upside. And if you’re going to make a devil’s advocate point, I agree with Jeff that produced the defense is a problem. Their offense may be the best in the country. So you would think they’ll score a lot of points here. I would think both teams score quite a few. But yeah, Trayveon Williams has been a problem. And Iowa has enough guys that can take advantage of that, that I think this could be a good look here from Jeff.
TJ:
All right. We will lock in the official play for the big man on campus. He does like the Iowa Hawkeyes in this matchup again for Purdue, one of the talented teams in the country, at least offensively, as the guys are laying out. They do have the recent loss at Indiana. They also lost on a half-court shot, speaking of that from earlier in the show, to Rutgers. Remember Ron Harper Jr. had the half-court winner at Rutgers earlier in the year. What will happen on the road in the Big Ten tonight? We will find out, but the big man thinks it’s a Hawkeye night for Fran McCaffrey this evening and his crew from Iowa.
TJ:
Okay. Before we get to our final game, reminder-
Jeff Nadu:
If I could-
TJ:
Yep. Go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
Real quick. I just want to build off one. What an incredible breakdown there by Kyle. I will say I didn’t want to pile on Williams, but I’m going to pile on him now.
TJ:
All right.
Jeff Nadu:
This guy is one of the most overrated players in the country. It’s that simple. This guy couldn’t hold Caleb Swanigan’s job, it’s just not. Stop comparing the two. This guy has folded in every big game they’ve had. I’ve never seen a player around the rim struggle more than him. Dunk the basketball, man. And another thing-
TJ:
You’ve said that earlier in the show that around the rim, he’s got to be tougher, better.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. He’s a mess. Also, do you know what the biggest thing for a team like Iowa nowadays is? There’s a little thing called quad one wins. They don’t have any, as far as I know. This is a gigantic basketball game in Iowa City, huge. Because remember, these don’t come across that much. This is the toughest game you have for the rest of the season. This is a Top 10 team coming into your building. It’s time for Fran McCaffrey to prove why he’s been there for the long time that he’s been. This guy, keep your cool, do what you got to do. This is the time to beat Purdue. And I think they do it tonight. Huge game for Iowa in Iowa City. I love them here.
TJ:
Good luck on Fran McCaffrey keeping his cool.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ:
And by the way, for the friends, family, and loved ones of Trayveon Williams that might see this, the last name is spelled N-A-D-U, Nadu on that. Okay. So he’s locked in. We’re good on that for Iowa laying the two-
Jeff Nadu:
What’s up with that? What are you issuing a hit on me?
TJ:
I’m just saying, you’re calling the kid the worst player in America, so I just wanted to make sure that that’s not coming from me or from Kyle.
Jeff Nadu:
No, I didn’t say that. I said he’s the most overrated player in America.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, just perception.
TJ:
Overrated player. Okay. That hearkens me back. Because I know Bill Walton, I believe is going to be on the UCLA Cal game later tonight.
Jeff Nadu:
Oh, good. I won’t watch.
TJ:
And we love him for so many different reasons. I know at times you like to turn the sound down on Walton, but he is so self-deprecating and he is so quick-witted on a lot of this. Because there was one night where they’re doing one of these games and going back and forth and Dave Pash said something to the effect of, “You called him the most overrated player in America.” And he says, “Incorrect. I did not call him the most overrated player in America. You don’t listen to me. I said he is the most overrated player in the galaxy. There’s a big difference.” So we’re just qualifying what-
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, listen, you’ve got to stand on your laurels, TJ. Listen, whether you believe it or not, you know I have made a career out of doing all this. Kyle probably has as well. He has his own thing. I never go back. I’m always willing to say what I feel. People like energy, people like realistic point of views. That’s why I’ve been able to do what I’ve been able to do. I’m not going to come off that. I think he’s overrated. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong because I hope he does. Because I’ll probably be back in Purdue. I love Purdue. I wish the kid would play better. I don’t think he’s playing up to the level that I think he’s capable of.
TJ:
All right. Fair enough. He’s on Iowa for tonight. We get that. Reminder, we’re going to get to the Q and A here in just a second. We’ll have a chance for some games that you might be interested in. I want to talk UCLA Cal before we get out of here as well. Is it a letdown spot for the Bruins? We’ll be talking about that here before we are done. One more game to go though on our slate. Let’s take a look. We referenced Eastern Illinois. As much as we’re talking about offense, offense, offense, now we got Eastern Illinois back on the show at UT Martin, the racers of UT Martin. I know all about them being from the great state of Tennessee originally. All right, Eastern Illinois is a 13 point road dog. Kyle Hunter, I smell something that you’re onto and that Jeff Nadu is on about unders once again here. Do I not hear the total at 134 and a half? There could be an underplay coming ladies and gentlemen, let’s find out.
Kyle Hunter:
Look, I have to go back to the well here. I have no choice on this one. Eastern Illinois has made the show more money than any other team, probably so far this year. And look, if it ain’t broke, you know the saying. Eastern Illinois has played 17 games against Division One opponents this year, they’ve topped this number one time. That was scoring 62 points. 62 points is their high of the year. Just crazy how bad this Eastern Illinois offense is. I feel like Jeff and I are taking turns bashing Eastern Illinois. But what else could you say? There’s just nothing good to say. I think Simmons got himself in a bad position here because he did pretty well at Evansville, but Eastern Illinois has nothing. They play extremely slowly. Even though they’re getting blasted every single game, usually you see these teams that are way behind, they speed up big time. They’re using 20 seconds per average possession, which is extremely slow in the conference. It’s almost like they’re just resigned to the fact that they’re going to get beat badly.
Kyle Hunter:
Eastern Illinois, if you look in their last 10 games, the highest point total they’ve put up, 58 points. And that was against Southeast Missouri State that we just talked about, one of the worst defenses in the country. SIU Edwardsville, Western Illinois, other weak defenses they played lately. They can’t get out of the fifties. UT Martin’s defense has one really big weakness. That’s the defensive glass. But Eastern Illinois is not the team to take advantage of that. They are 349th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I just can’t see Eastern Illinois having this breakout offensive game. And TJ, sometimes there’s bets that I have to bet this game. If it loses, it loses. If they nail a bunch of threes, somebody could say afterwards, “Hey they’re bound to make threes at some point.” Yes, but they’ve played 17 games against Division One opponents. I have all the stats in front of me. If this bet loses, it loses. I still think it was the right play to make. I’m going to take Eastern Illinois team total 161 here.
TJ:
It’s like running the football in the NFL. You’re going to see this just to cross-over sports with San Francisco because they have been winning down the stretch of the season and in the postseason, running the football. Their mentality, “We’re going to keep running the ball until you show us that you can stop us and make Jimmy Garoppolo throw it.” The same thing here with the boys, whether it is Eastern Illinois, whether it is IUPUI with the poor offenses, you’re just going to keep going back to bet the under. I get that sense. Jeff, what else do you want to add there?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Kyle made a really good point about, I think, trusting what you do. And I think one thing that I’ve always made clear with any game that I bet… And this is why I can’t really ever be swayed by someone that’s negative because when I make a bet on something like this, let’s say if Eastern Illinois scores 65 points tonight, Salud, it is what it is. Cheers. There’s nothing I can do. I’m going to make this bet every time they play, just like I’m going to make it every time IEPY plays and Evansville and some of these other teams, they’re just not good offensively. And could they score 65 tonight? Sure. But I’m going to tip my cap and say, “Okay, well I’ll feed you next time.” All in all the entire season, it’s a long season, I’m going to make money.
Jeff Nadu:
But yeah, you’re right. There’s nothing I can say that’s going to take you off of this game. There’s nothing that I would try to take you off this game with. Eastern Illinois scores 55 and a half points a game. It’s just wretched. There are probably a hundred programs in Division Two that are better than Eastern Illinois. It’s that simple offensively. They’re terrible. And I also have to say, I agree with one of our commenters. Is Tennessee Martin’s mascot, logo, not the weirdest thing? What is up with the bird with goggles? What is up with that?
TJ:
They’re the Racers. I don’t know what that is.
Jeff Nadu:
No, they’re the Skyhawks. But it’s like-
TJ:
They’re the Skyhawks now. They were the Racers for a while, company-
Jeff Nadu:
But on what planet is a bird going to have goggles?
TJ:
It doesn’t look like a Skyhawk either though.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, but why would a sky have goggles? It’s just a weird mascot.
TJ:
I’m trying to reflect. I think they were the Pacers. I know Murray state is the Racers. I think they were the Pacers at one point, like the Indiana Pacers, like a pace car, but that does not look like a Skyhawk. I would agree. It’s kind of-
Jeff Nadu:
But that being said also, remember there’s no one on the roster of Eastern Illinois that averages double figures. No one. In fact, no one on this roster even averages over 9-
TJ:
Well, you keep laying out, they can’t get to 62 points. So you start doing the math on how many guys can average double figures. If you can’t even get to 62 points, you guys are right on that.
Jeff Nadu:
They also don’t get the 40% shooting, the 32% from three, and they’re almost sub 60% from the free-throw line. So yes, all in all, this is a bet you just keep making.
TJ:
And Kyle is going to make that bet. Let’s do it officially here for our fourth official play of the show. That is the team total under for Eastern Illinois tonight. We’ll get to the peeps and a couple of questions here. Let’s do that. Cliff asks a very interesting one. I don’t know that we’ve done very much if at all of either-or. Cliff is saying, “What’s the best team total tonight between these two Gonzaga or South Dakota State?” Gonzaga’s team total is 93 in their game tonight at home. South Dakota State’s team total is 91. I saw a shake of the head, Jeff Nadu. You don’t like these propositions of which is better?
Jeff Nadu:
No, because I guess my question is why are you picking? Why not just bet both over? I don’t understand why. Do you only have a certain amount of money left?
TJ:
Maybe he has a budget. Maybe he’s been losing as of late and he needs good advice. I don’t know.
Jeff Nadu:
Right. And I think he should bet both. That is what I would advise, my friend. South Dakota State will get mid-nineties, I think at worst. North Dakota is a dreadful defense as we’ve talked about before. I think Gonzaga probably gets into the hundreds here. That’s a norm with them now. I don’t think it’s out of the question. They’re an NBA [inaudible 00:37:17] of offense. When you look at Loyola and Marymount, this group has nothing at the rim. They can’t defend at the rim. I think Gonzaga with ease gets to that number. They don’t defend at any level Loyola and Marymount amount. So yeah, I think they win by 30-plus and I think they get in the hundreds.
TJ:
Kyle, do you have any thoughts on either one of those team total plays?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. The only concern I have about games like this is both of them are favored by so much that you wonder if at some point they take their foot off the gas. I think I like Gonzaga a little bit better than South Dakota State. South Dakota State has laid off in some of the games lately and stayed around 90. I’m going to lean toward Gonzaga. We’ve seen their upside, it’s 117 points, so they’re very capable of this. That would be my lean between those two.
TJ:
It’s a 28 point line for Gonzaga at home with all the firepower that they have. All right, moving right along. Mark wants to know about Texas State and UT Arlington. This one is in the Sunbelt Conference for now. UT Arlington, by the way, UTA has announced they’re out, they’re leaving, they’re gone I believe to WAC. They announced their departure coming up. Several schools have done that recently. UIC, University of Illinois, Chicago has announced that they are leaving out of the Horizon League as well. So some more conference realignment coming. Anyway, Texas State Bobcats, UTA, UT Arlington Mavericks tonight, either one of you have a thought on that one this evening or no?
Jeff Nadu:
It’s a full lip.
TJ:
I see.
Jeff Nadu:
I lean Texas State. I think they’re the better team. They’re very good at the line and in flip games, that’s what I want. But I don’t bet too much Sunbelt. UT Arlington is going into the WAC because they aren’t any good. And God forbid if you struggle in games, you’re just going to fold and go to another conference. Yeah. I lean to Texas State, always a good defensive team for the most part under Terrence Johnson and some of the previous regimes. So yeah, I lean Texas State, but there’s a lot of games on the card. This wouldn’t be anywhere near mine.
TJ:
All right. Kyle, anything there? No?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, I wanted to bet the under in this one, but the number is too low, 127, 1 27 and a half. You have to really like an under to bet under 127 and 127 and a half. Like I say, my lean would’ve been under. I think the number is too low to play it. I’d rather play Texas State. I wish it was under the three and a half though.
TJ:
All right, good enough. Let me get the viewer’s name. And again, we always appreciate those of you that are live with us in the 1:00 Eastern Time hour, Monday through Friday, that are watching just like Dalton is. Dalton is trying to get on my bad side because I’m a Memphis alum. He says, “You want to fade? Do we want to fade Memphis as a double-digit favorite?” That actually might be a good play tonight. This is the match-up, the revenge game with East Carolina where East Carolina beat them in comeback fashion on the last-second shot and stormed the court. So now this is a revenge situation for Memphis coming up tonight. Guys, any thoughts here? From what I have been told by a couple of my peeps in Memphis, they have gotten their act together a little bit, a little bit being relative. Are they going to be angry in the revenge mode here for the user, for the viewer who are saying, “Hey, what about fading them as a 10 point favorite at home?” What do you think?
Jeff Nadu:
First of all, East Carolina is off a 43 point loss where they scored 36 points against Houston. I’m going to guess Joe Dooley had a little talking to them as well after that hosting performance. That was last Saturday, so plenty of time to reflect on their performance and behavior in that game. Look, TJ, all due respect, saying Memphis is going to be pissed off with the terrible coach that they have. He has no ability to motivate. Give me a break. This comes down to who is available to play. This is a lot like LSU to me with Memphis. The only difference is LSU has some mental fortitude. In fact, a lot of it. I don’t think Memphis is strong at all. They just seem weak to me. They seem disoriented and disjointed as well. But-
TJ:
Except, and a lot of what you’re saying is valid for most of the year, they were down big at Tulsa on Sunday. I know almost nobody other than friends and family was watching the Memphis Tulsa with all the NFL playoffs going on, it’s an afternoon game. But they came back from double digits down at Tulsa to win. So that showed something. They didn’t just roll over at Tulsa. Now they’re back home.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, you’re right. You’re right. They did get six for 10 from Tyler Harris from three, which that’s… Tyler Harris, decent player, but I don’t know if I want him on the court all the… He has played well, though. Look, it’s going to come down to is Deandre Williams and Nolley back? Because if you have a good medical check on them, then yeah, I could understand your thought process here. They figure it out. They get everybody back. They’re very healthy. And fully healthy Memphis is a different team. But until I know what the status is with those two, if they’re they’re out, no, I have no interest in a double-digit number with Memphis.
TJ:
Kyle, any thought here? The number is 12 for what it’s worth here. And it’s a revenge game from Memphis.
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. Memphis is capable of blowing a team out at some point. They’re going to have one game where we see a 30 point win by Memphis and somebody wants to say, “Memphis is back. Look how good they look here.”
Jeff Nadu:
Right.
Kyle Hunter:
But, but I feel like it’s philosophically, why do you want to lay double-digits with Memphis? Why would I want to lay a bunch of points with the team that has been so disappointing, poorly coached team? No way I can lay that number of points. I’d rather pass on that one.
TJ:
Okay. Viewer Lodie wants to know, “Any leans on the UCLA total tonight? What do I know? I’m the host. You see UCLA off the fantastic performance against Arizona is right back 48 hours later playing Cal at home and laying a bunch of points. Is this not a possible letdown, a possible trap here for them at least mentally, emotionally? What do you guys think? Either of you have an opinion on UCLA?
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t think it is. Remember they actually played Cal in Cal a couple of weeks ago, and they had to get out of there with a close 60 to 52 win. Didn’t look good offense. They looked disjointed. I think there’s too many strong-minded, experienced kids on this team to have this thing go on. I don’t think they do. I think they come back and probably get the job done. Do I want to lay 15-ish? Not really because I actually think Cal is a decent team. This is going to be a low-scoring game. I think KenPom had it at 72-56, which seems super low. But I don’t think this is a high-scoring game. I think it’s probably 69-60, 69-57, something like that. I’m not going crazy here.
Jeff Nadu:
I get the point and yeah, I don’t want to lay double digits, but I don’t know if UCLA is really built like that. I think they’re a lot stronger mentally than we give them credit for. They were terrific the other night. I think the big loss that we didn’t mention, how good they were defensively. 59 points you give it to Arizona, a team that’s top five in the country in offense. That’s incredible. They might be back. They’ve won what? Four or five in a row. I like UCLA. I’m not taking Cal here, but I also don’t have it on my card. I don’t think it’s a great play. I could see a letdown.
TJ:
Kyle, any thoughts on the Bruins hosting Cal tonight, one of the Marquee games in the West?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah. My lean in that game is the under. I would think Cal likes to turn all these games into ugly, low-scoring games. And UCLA’s defense has been high quality, especially here lately. I agree with the big man, Juzang, one of my favorite guys to watch in college basketball. A lot of fun. Yeah, I would definitely lean to the under in this game. In fact, if it gets a little bit higher, I’d consider playing it.
TJ:
Pardon me? They seem to be getting a great benefit as well from Cody Riley who’s back healthy. He was scoring a bunch the other night, big body underneath. He played well in the NCAA tournament a year ago. So they have a lot of guys back and we’ll see if UCLA looks like UCLA tonight. One more game, Gerard or Jared, whichever, forgive me if I don’t have it right, wants to know about BYU laying three at Santa Clara tonight. Do either of you have a thought real quick on that one, if no official play in the West Coast Conference?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, BYU has still got some guys for hurt. I believe Richard Harward is still out, some of their bigs. I don’t know. I’m not sure if they’re going to get the same production as some of these kids that have been playing well. Santa Clara can’t defend anything. I don’t know. I’m not interested in going against BYU. I’ve also mentioned before, and I think… I’m trying to remember who I talked with. Oh, some of my colleagues in the business, we talk all the time about BYU. Whenever they’re laying a number, I’m always interested, really in any game I like BYU against the spread because their coach Mark Pope has come out and talked about, they actually care about how much they win by. Their goal is to win by as many as they can every game because they know analytically it helps them longer term. What that’s code for is, “Yeah, we pretty much care about covering numbers.” That’s what I hear.
Jeff Nadu:
Yes, if you’re going to give me under five with Brigham Young on the road here, I have some interest. They’ve been rolling really outside of that Gonzaga game. We have to remember, they went into San Francisco and got a win. That was impressive. Beat a really good Saint Mary’s team and held them to 43. Yeah, I like BYU. Santa Clara is not going to put in many stops here to bother me and get me off this.
TJ:
Again, going back to the Hawaii tournament and they had their pause in and around there, BYU has now won eight of their last nine games if I have that right. It may be seven of their last eight games with the only loss to Gonzaga. And Barcello is a tremendous offensive weapon for them on the road. He’s a lot of fun to watch if you’re up late tonight, that’s an 11:00 Eastern Time, 8:00 in the West start for BYU and Santa Clara late night tonight. With that, let’s circle back to our best bets from the show today, from the guys, and take a look at what they have. For this evening for the big man on campus, he is on the Iowa Hawkeyes, on a side for that matchup in the Big Ten. Kyle has got an over in a game there with Morehead State and he’s got a team total under again on Eastern Illinois. Keep banging that drum, keep playing it because those guys just seemingly cannot score as you keep hearing if you’re with us every day on this show.
TJ:
All right, guys, we’re pretty much done here for a Thursday. Any other pearls of wisdom, Bruce Lee or otherwise before we are done on the program, boys?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I always try to, TJ, end on a fun or on a high note. I will say as well, good luck to everybody out there. I don’t say good luck enough. At the end of the day, I know a lot of you play these games, so have fun and good luck. As far as any quotes. I don’t know, Al Capone’s birthday was the other day. I could give you a quote from him, but I don’t know if it would be one I’d follow. So I’ll just stay away from that.
TJ:
I understand. You know how you get Capone? Just watch the movie. You can watch the movie and get the rest of that from Sean Connery.
Jeff Nadu:
By the way, important to understand. Elliot Ness had very little… That movie is total nonsense. It never happened. Elliot Ness was not-
TJ:
Are you saying that Hollywood makes things up, exaggerates things to get people to buy tickets and watch movies?
Jeff Nadu:
Yes. And quite honestly-
TJ:
Is it breaking news on the Thursday Bet US College Basketball Show?
Jeff Nadu:
That’s exactly what I’m saying. Quite honestly, Elliot Ness had very little to do with it at all. It was really just for show. Al Capon actually died from syphilis that he got when he was 20 years old and he never took care of it. So yes, Elliot Ness-
TJ:
More fun facts. More fun facts at the end of today’s show that you didn’t think you’d necessarily hear. Kyle Hunter, anything else before we completely devolve into sexually transmitted diseases and things like that? What else? Anything else?
Kyle Hunter:
Yeah, we got to get us away from that. I think this was a fun show, guys. A lot of laughs and entertainment, as well as quality basketball content. Enjoyed doing this as always with TJ and Jeff. And as Jeff said, best of luck with all your plays tonight. We appreciate everybody tuning in.
TJ:
Love that. Great way to end it. Jeff Nadu, thank you, good luck. Kyle Hunter, thank you, good luck. And we will see you one final time for this week on the Friday edition of the BetUS College Basketball TV Show and check out the best sportsbook site.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
