TJ Rives:
We will get to the Monday slate in a few moments. Mid Major Matt is here. Do you have a good New Year’s weekend? I know the Eagles stayed alive for a playoff NFL, win this weekend. Lots of college basketball odds. How was New Year’s weekend for you, my friend?
Mid Major Matt:
A lot of fun. You sit there and you see now … We’ve talked about this on the show. And last year, we talked about teams coming off of COVID pauses. And we’re seeing some of them come out really slowly to start. We’re seeing some of them come out really fast. That’s certainly something you’ll have to consider when it comes to handicapping because you’re going to notice some big time gaps between team’s last games being played.
TJ Rives:
Yeah. We have been talking about that now where you will sometimes see a team that hasn’t played in as much as two weeks. And in particular, you guys have honed in on this first-half totals, first-half unders, how sharp can you be, because it’s worth eliminating again, it’s not just that they aren’t playing a game but because of the COVID protocols, etcetera, they may not be practicing for several days because they’re not allowed to be around each other until they isolate, test negative, etcetera.
TJ Rives:
So, it really throws everything behind. I saw something where again on Saturday and Sunday, it was over 35 games that were postponed. And you’re still trying to make up here which again, they will have the opportunity to begin to make some of these games up. And there were some interesting games to go over from the weekend.
TJ Rives:
I know we don’t have a long slate today of games that we have. So that gives you, the fans, a chance to jump in in the Q&A with question and answer time as the show rolls on. We’re here live Monday through Friday, 1:00 Eastern Time, from here on. We had the Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve Fridays where we did not work. We will be here Monday through Friday, God willing, 1:00 Eastern Time. So get the questions and answers going in the live chat.
TJ Rives:
These guys are very savvy. They may answer you in the live chat occasionally, too, typing but we’ll also verbally get to the questions as well as the show goes on. Okay. Orders of business.
TJ Rives:
First of all, the overall record. We should say that the Big Man on Campus, a 2 and 0 Thursday on our final show of 2021. You went by my count I believe 4 and 2, Jeff Nadu last week up over 500. I know that Mid Major Matt right there at the 500-mark. We’ll usually have you with us on Mondays. Kyle right there at the 500-mark as well. We’ll see Kyle later in a week. And then Ian Cameron is still trying to play some catch up here at this point and more from him later on in the week.
TJ Rives:
So guys, we now get ready to see what’s going to happen on a Monday card. Not a lot of great games but you do have two or three of them that immediately stood out to you. So, let’s begin with that here on the show including a Big 10 matchup that’s going to start us off. That is a game that I think a lot of people are going to be interested in particular because of the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue and Wisconsin get ready to play in West Lafayette. Let’s take a look at that.
TJ Rives:
Actually, I believe on the order, yeah, we’ve got Purdue and Wisconsin. I didn’t know if that was just me. It’s New Year. Purdue and Wisconsin, West Lafayette. And Purdue is laying 12-and-a-half points here. The total at 140. And the Big Man on Campus is going to this one in the Big 10 right away. Jeff, what do you like and why?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I like Purdue in this game. I’m going to stick with them. I bet them a lot this year so far. And as we get into conference play, I think we’re really going to see kind of what Wisconsin is in and what I think maybe they’ve pulled the wool over some people’s eyes with some wins over at Houston and St. Mary’s which are good wins. But I just think this team is so dependent on one player.
Jeff Nadu:
And I think when you play a team like Purdue, and I look at some of the deficiencies I think Whiskey has in this game especially with the fact that they’re on the road here as well. We have to remember last year, we didn’t have full stadiums. This year, we do. This is, in my estimation, the toughest place to play in the entire country arguably. West Lafayette is an incredible home atmosphere.
Jeff Nadu:
And Purdue is very good in that building. We also look at on the court. I think Purdue, they got some good news. One of their better bigs first is back. He was having a COVID issues. They seem to be fully healthy and have had normal practices. I know Wisconsin hasn’t necessarily had a full complement and/or complete practice schedules.
Jeff Nadu:
But you look at the fact that I think they’re really adept at defending him tonight. Look, if you can get Johnny Davis and stop Johnny Davis, you’re going to have some success. You look at what Ohio State did. Johnny Davis had 24 of Wisconsin’s 55 points. You feel like if you can just keep him and let him do what he wants, you just stop everybody else. You’re going to have a lot of success against this team.
Jeff Nadu:
You also look at for Purdue offensively. I don’t know how Wisconsin stops them in the frontcourt. Last year, Wisconsin was much more adept at being able to stop a bigger frontcourt. I don’t really know if they can do that this year. You look at someone like Chris Vogt who they bring off the bench to play down low. He’s a terrible defender. I don’t think he has the ability against Williams or Edey.
Jeff Nadu:
I just think Purdue is way more completed team. And I’ve been really impressed with this Wisconsin defense lately. Not that I’m not impressed with Purdue’s defense but I think to just pull away and win this one like 81-65, something like that, I’m going to lay the number here with Purdue.
TJ Rives:
They had a couple of big out-of-conference wins. Did the Boilermakers? Mid Major Matt, do you have a thought on Purdue hosting Whiskey here tonight if no official play?
Mid Major Matt:
I mean, no, I don’t have an official play. But I’ll just say like we’ll know early on with the score if this game is played more to Purdue’s liking or Wisconsin’s liking. If it’s like 15-12 with a 10-minute mark of the first half, then I think Wisconsin’s got a shot to stay in it.
Mid Major Matt:
Now, we haven’t seen too many teams be able to slow down Purdue this season, at least offensively. So, that’s going to be a big challenge. And you look at last year, last year, this was a closer low-scoring game so that’s something that would play towards Wisconsin.
Mid Major Matt:
Now, I don’t trust Wisconsin. And as Jeff just talked about, their size doesn’t match up well with Purdue’s size at least by talent standard. So I mean, I would certainly lean towards Purdue here. The one thing I would say is we’re still in that fringe area where the students may not necessarily be back. Purdue still got a great home court atmosphere board in that area where the paint crew may not necessarily be there. So, that’s still going to be a great atmosphere.
Mid Major Matt:
But you may still be able to take advantage of some of those places with the students maybe not being back quite yet, especially with the wintery weather on the East Coast and things like that. I know this is not in the East Coast but just something to look at maybe in some of these places that you still may not get the students back so we may get 100% great atmosphere.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind one thing about Purdue as well. One of the reasons I am also more adept at laying a big number with them, I mean you look at when they win, they win by margin. I’m not talking about just against Bellarmine and Nebraska-Omaha. They’re beating a big east team. They’re beating Florida State. They’re beating an NC State. They’re beating teams by double digits.
Jeff Nadu:
And generally taking care … I mean, Wright State is a really good team in mid-major dome. And they beat that team ruthlessly. So, that’s good point. I mean, kids aren’t back until January 10th. And yes, I did look that up. Listen, if you’re a handicapper, Matt makes a good point about returning to school. You got to look at those academic calendars. You got to go to purdue.edu and look at the registrar and see when they come back.
Jeff Nadu:
Now, the good thing for Purdue, I’m going to guess it’s mostly states students. I’d have to imagine your first game in the conference, I hope they’re back. As you said, it’s going to be a good atmosphere nonetheless.
TJ Rives:
Well, and a lot of times, what these programs will do, it’s not all of them, but if they understand that the students will not be there at a big enough program, they will make more tickets available to the general public to go and buy in a basketball situation and get the lower level seats if they know the students aren’t going to be there. I don’t know if they’re going to do that in West Lafayette.
TJ Rives:
And you make the good point. One more point on this game as well before we lock it in, Wisconsin had a two-week pause because of COVID-19. And late in the week, played Illinois State late in the week last week, I believe on either Wednesday or Thursday. I think it was Wednesday. And now, they played a close game 89-85 I think I see here. So, there’s the answer on that response.
TJ Rives:
Now, it’s been a few days later and they got to go on the road and play a Godzilla, play a top five team. How will they handle it? Just thought that was … From the point you were making earlier, Matt, about what does the team look like off the COVID pause, Wisconsin clearly had problems with Illinois State in the game back last week.
TJ Rives:
Okay. Officially on this play, let’s take a look. It is Jeff Nadu with the play and he is on Purdue laying the 12-and-a-half. Hey, just a quick question to you about mindset and strategy. You have been playing a lot of team totals. You’ve been playing a lot of first-half totals on this BetUS College Basketball Show. What led you to take the full leap here at Purdue for the full game as opposed to maybe looking at a Purdue team total or the first half?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I guess I just look at the matchup. I think Matt makes a lot of sense. I mean, look, when you look at Wisconsin’s offense, I think that Johnny Davis could have a big game. I think he could get round … I think they get around 60-ish in this game, 65. I don’t know. I guess just for me, I’ve just been so interested in Purdue and just how they can score. I think it’s a great matchup for them.
Jeff Nadu:
I think it just pull away and probably win by 15. I guess where what the total is this game is 75-60. And you come up just short. I would have to imagine and I’ve noticed over the years, when a team to level Purdue has a bad defensive game, generally, they come back out and there’s a lot of adeptness on that end. I mean, they gave up 90 points the other night to the Nicholls State Colonels. Not exactly what you want to see.
Jeff Nadu:
Now again, that game was up and down. But I’m going to go ahead and guess they come back here with a lot of defensive fervor. They’re at home here. They could score 76-78 and Wisconsin might only get to 60. The team total just got a little high for me I felt like. I was hoping to get 73-74. It was like 76-and-a-half, 77. So, I’m going to just lay the number here if they win my 15.
TJ Rives:
Okay. Fair enough on that. Well, let’s move on to game number two on our schedule. And again, a lot of you are already registering with the Q&A when we’re done with our fairly short slate for Monday of official games that our guys are going over. This is interesting, deep in the heart of Texas, University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley and Sam Houston State. Both teams losing records right around 500 though. Sam Houston State is the home team.
TJ Rives:
It’s a nine-point spread here. Sam Houston State is favored by nine, the total 146. Mid Major Matt right in the wheelhouse here, what stood out about going to this game officially?
Mid Major Matt:
So, I’ll say this first off. This is not one of those unload the bankroll type of things. I didn’t really like much on this card. And once again, I was bullied. No, I’m just kidding. I wasn’t bullied. But I picked the game and I basically said, “All right, you know what? I kind of liked this game.”
Mid Major Matt:
And I’m going to go against what I have been doing a little bit because if you look, Rio Grande Valley has been on a pause. And unfortunately, it has been their COVID pause. They’re the team that has had the issues of it. And I’ve been going against those teams. But you look a little bit deeper at this squad and you look at some of the games where they’ve gone on the road and they’ve played close. The Illinois game, they lose by nine. I mean, that was a pretty good game.
Mid Major Matt:
They go to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, they lose the game pretty close. And look, a few times I’ve gotten blown out, Arizona and Texas, they’re going to get blown out on. And look, there’s not a lot of green on this team’s page. But I just think nine is a lot here. Sam Houston State is playing a little bit more methodical than they did last year under Jason Hooten.
Mid Major Matt:
And they come off a game against Lamar and they have a win. But other than that, they don’t really have too many good wins. They’ve played a lot of D2, D3 schools here. And their defense is 322nd against the 3, 285th against the two. They’re not a great team.
Mid Major Matt:
And by the way also, something else you want to see here in a game like this. They’re 53.4% as a free throw shooting team, that’s 358. So, if we get down to a part where it’s like a five-point game and we’re starting to shoot free throws, there’s an opportunity they miss a lot of free throws. So, this was my “favorite game” on the board, as in I played something that I thought I’d like. It’s like a one-unit play. It’s something small.
Mid Major Matt:
But I like Rio Grande Valley here. I think they make things interesting. I like the coaching events here. And I think once again, this will be one of those under-attended games. It won’t be much of a home atmosphere. And maybe in the second half, Rio Grande finds their legs after the COVID pause and makes this thing close.
TJ Rives:
All right, Big Man on Campus, any thoughts? I know no official play from you but any thoughts on this one tonight?
Jeff Nadu:
Yes. So, one of the random coaching moves this offseason was or sorry, last offseason I believe it was, was Matt Figger, the coach at Rio Grande Valley went from Austin Peay to Rio Grande Valley. That was one of the weirder decisions.
Jeff Nadu:
Now, look, obviously he makes his decisions for him and his family but it just seemed like a negative move frankly. I thought it was a pretty good job he had at Austin Peay. But I guess he saw something in South Texas. So far, it’s been a rough year as Matt alluded to. He’s playing fast which is what he did at Austin Peay. And this is really your kind of clash of styles game if you will. Sam Houston’s been real slow.
Jeff Nadu:
Kyle’s talked about them and they’re just inability to score the basketball. I didn’t have much in this game. I’m not a big clash of styles fan. And Mid Major Matt will say that he was bullied. I don’t know about that. I don’t know what …
TJ Rives:
There’s really only one bully on the show and that would be you and you’re confirming you did not bullied him into this pick.
Jeff Nadu:
No. I have no idea what he’s talking about. As far as this though, yeah, I don’t know. It’s a rough one for me. Clash of styles, I’m going to root for Matt here though.
TJ Rives:
All right. We’re all rooting for Matt and it will lock it in for him. He is on the underdog, the road underdog, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, a lot of initials there in the name for this one.
Jeff Nadu:
And TJ.
TJ Rives:
Yes, sir.
Jeff Nadu:
I got a trivia question for you. What was Rio Grande’s name before they were Rio Grande Valley?
TJ Rives:
Did we go over this? Were they Texas Pan-Am, Texas Pan-American? Did you reveal that on our show? Was it another show?
Jeff Nadu:
It was another Pan American. Yes. What is their mascot as well?
TJ Rives:
I’m not even sure. I think I saw something. Was it a cowboy? What are they? They’re in Texas.
Jeff Nadu:
The Vaqueros.
TJ Rives:
The Vaquero. And you know what Vaquero is in Espanol? Our friends at BetUS know this right away.
Jeff Nadu:
I do. I do know what that is. A vaquero is a cowboy.
TJ Rives:
You are correct, the Spanish pronunciation. So I got cowboy or vaquero right. And our guys at BetUS are probably very happy with me that I would know that as well, as we go down the road of nicknames and all these different games. And again, there’s over 300 college basketball teams with all of the nicknames. And some of them are interesting. That’s for sure.
TJ Rives:
Okay. So, Mid Major Matt on, UT Rio Grande Valley and the nine points. One more game as an official play. It also stays in the Lone Star State. And that is a SWAC contest with Texas Southern against Southern University of Louisiana. This is a two-and-a-half-point line for the home team, the Jaguars. I do know that name, Nadu. They are the Southern Jaguars. They are laying two-and-a-half, the total at 137-and-a-half.
TJ Rives:
And big man, what are you looking at for the official play in this matchup?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. So, I think what I’m about to tell you and really the listeners I think is, and I think Matt would agree, is one of the really most important points that we have when you go from non-conference to conference play. It’s imperative that when you look at a game like this, you throw out the overall record for these teams.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay. You have to because these two teams, the records that they have are not indicative of who and what they are in this conference. These are two of the best teams in the SWAC. It’s that simple. And you look at their strength of schedule in non-conference play, 43rd and 8th. They both played very tough schedules.
Jeff Nadu:
Texas Southern has really great games frankly, beat Florida. I know a lot of people remember that. Southern had a bear of a schedule as well. They played a real tough, a group of teams. Beat a couple decent teams, Tulane, Kent State, [inaudible 00:17:51] some games. I mean only lost Kentucky by 12. Only lost a Dayton by nine. Only lost a Louisville by 12. This team hung around. These are two really good basketball teams.
Jeff Nadu:
And when we look at this total in this game, not sure I understand it. Okay. This game was played last year, 80-74. The game season before, 89-74. And then what these bookmakers are doing is I think they’re a little quick to draw in some of these non-conference flips. These are two teams that when you look at it in conference play last year, two of the fastest tempos in the SWAC.
Jeff Nadu:
In fact, Texas Southern was the fastest tempo in the SWAC. Southern was fourth. And when we look at the makeup of these two teams, two of the best offenses in SWAC play last season. And I say last season because both of these teams are very similar to what they had last year. Texas Southern is very good in the frontcourt. Southern is not a good frontcourt defense.
Jeff Nadu:
I think Texas Southern lives at the rim in this game. And I think their bigs have solid performances here tonight. John Walker, Joirdon Nicholas. I think they had big games here. And when we look at Southern, they’re going to press, they’re going to go quick. And I think their guard play is really the difference in this game. PJ Byrd, Jaden Sadler, this team can really shoot the rock. I think this total is way too low.
Jeff Nadu:
It wouldn’t surprise me if they get into the 150s. I think both these teams want to play fast. And I think the numbers are not indicative of what these teams are. In conference play, they want to turn up the speed and both are very efficient offensively. I like the over.
TJ Rives:
All right, so he’s going for lots of offense and the over. Mid Major Matt, a thought from you on this SWAC matchup if no official play?
Mid Major Matt:
I mean, these were two teams I liked playing out of conference because they were covering machines it felt like at times in some of these big matchups. So you look at the Southern-Dayton game, I mean that was a tight game. And you look at the win at Kent State. I mean both of these teams are not talented like they wouldn’t survive in a bigger conference but they held their own against some of these big teams. So I think that kind of tests things a little bit.
Mid Major Matt:
To go along with his point once again, going to like the KenPom thing, there’s a lot of red on the defensive side for both teams. It’s ironic both of them defend the three pretty well but neither of them … I mean, Southern shoots the three all right but there’s not a lot of offensive things these two do well. So, it’s one of those things where we could see a lot of possessions.
Mid Major Matt:
And much like Jeff said, they’ve scored against each other a lot the past couple of years. You just hope that they continue to do it once again. I mean, we’ve seen these SWAC and these MEAC games. I mean, look at Coppin State last year. They were one of those teams that constantly went over the total it felt like. And they were able to do so because they were playing in their own level in these games in the conference games.
Mid Major Matt:
And I think you’ll see what the Southern team really is like in this game. And you’ll see what Texas Southern is really like. Two good coaches. I think it’d be a fun matchup. I think Jeff’s right that the total’s a little bit low here.
TJ Rives:
I still go back to that game in early December where Texas Southern was 0 and 7, came into Gainesville, Florida about 90 minutes to the north of where I’m sitting here in the Tampa Bay area and shocked the Florida Gators. It was the first time ever, ever that a SWAC team had beaten a ranked SEC team.
TJ Rives:
The SEC with its ranked teams had been 51 for 51 in previous games against the SWAC. And yet, Texas Southern got the win and won easily, pulling away by double figures in Florida. Now, since that time, they’ve also been on a COVID pause as well and have only played one game since the Florida game at the beginning of December. So we’ll see how that factors in, but they certainly put it together on that night.
TJ Rives:
And I remember, Jeff Nadu, you were saying on that show, this is more of why you’re on this game that Johnny Jones has had Texas Southern in the NCAA tournament before. And just because they played the tough schedule and lost some games that when they get into conference, your point from earlier, familiarity with the opponent, etcetera, this is a chance to capitalize no matter what the numbers say in front of your name on the record.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I mean, this team has played I think five top 100 teams and like four top 30 teams. This team schedules. And that’s one thing about Johnny Jones over the years. This is the premier program in the SWAC because of that. They prepare themselves.
Jeff Nadu:
And that’s why if you went into that game, and I’m not saying you because I know you didn’t do this, but I saw a lot of handicappers that are on media and all sorts of stuff telling you how bad Texas Southern is, “They’re 0 and 7. They’re 0 and 7.” It means nothing. It means ugatz as we say. Ugatz, it doesn’t mean anything.
TJ Rives:
Well, it means something until you dig deeper and then look at who are the losses against. I know what you’re saying.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. You have to go and look and inspect of what you’re seeing here. And this team is, as you said, they’re generally in the tournament. This is going to be probably the matchup in the final. These are the two best teams to me in the SWAC. It should be a great game tonight. Yeah, you got to look a little bit deeper. You got to do a little bit more research.
Mid Major Matt:
Well, and it also doesn’t benefit a team like Texas Southern to run with some of their opponents. You’re not going to run with Washington and Oregon and BYU and Louisiana Tech. It’s not going to do anything for you. So, he tries to slow it down. I mean, it didn’t matter because they still gave up 87 to Louisiana Tech and 81 to BYU, but you’re just not going to run.
Mid Major Matt:
But Florida didn’t try and push it as much against them. It was a 66 possession game and that’s where Texas Southern wants to be when they’re going up a level. And so now, they’re going to a level which is where they’re more comfortable so they’re going to play more free flowing.
TJ Rives:
All right, let’s lock it in. The Big Man on Campus with our final official play for a Monday is on the over in the Texas Southern-Southern University game. Texas Southern by the way, I looked at this again, they outrebounded Florida 43 to 25 in the game. And games will set a great night on the glass as well. What will it translate to this game with Southern? We’ll see. Jeff’s looking for them to go up and down in this matchup.
TJ Rives:
Okay. So as I mentioned, only three official plays here. Let’s see what a lot of you are thinking in the Q&A. We’ll get to some of your questions and comments. I know Jeff also wants a quick mention, too, before we’re done about maybe futures odds, that kind of thing, as we now head into January and the New Year.
TJ Rives:
Rob is watching the show. Thank you, Rob, for watching us live on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Again, Monday through Friday, 1:00 Eastern Time. And Rob says, “What do you guys think about Oregon and Colorado?” Correct me if I’m wrong. This is a reschedule I think from over a week ago I think with the two teams coming off pause. Any thought from either of you on Ducks and Buffaloes on this one tonight?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I mean, Oregon has a little bit of a leg up here. They played over the weekend. Colorado hasn’t played since December 18th. So, definitely, a leg up there, plus they’re at home. Oregon is figuring it out a bit. They’ve won three or four. The only loss was to the number one team in the country. And it was only by eight.
Jeff Nadu:
If you’ve watched that game, Oregon was pretty much in it and led for a lot of it. So, I think Oregon is starting to figure it out a little bit. I would lean them here just in a scheduling advantage. And frankly the fact that they’re at home, I think they’re the better team.
Jeff Nadu:
Colorado to me is not an offense that I generally long term want to bet on just because … I’ve said this before, when a team is so dependent on getting to the foul line to create offense, I think that will occasionally work at getting a big number or something. But when the rubber meets the road in a game like this, when you have to score and you have to stay with your opponent and play high-level basketball, I just don’t think it’s that easy to do.
Jeff Nadu:
So, I like Oregon. I think it’s a pretty good spot for them here to figure it out.
TJ Rives:
Matt, a thought? No official play here but a thought on this Pac-12 game?
Mid Major Matt:
I mean, I would agree. Look, as I’ve talked about on Twitter, I’ve been watching these teams coming off the COVID pauses and playing against them in certain situations in the first half. And I think that Oregon in the first half is a perfect situation here because it seems like a lot of the teams coming off the COVID pauses and having to travel for their first game have done better than the teams that are at least home.
Mid Major Matt:
Yesterday, we saw UMass Lowell, we saw St. Louis. These are teams that came off their COVID pauses and at least at home, played well enough to cover first halves. And so, you sit here and you look at Oregon. Oregon is not exactly one of these teams like … If Colorado was playing a D2 score, playing a D3 score, playing a lower-level school and ease their way into things, playing Oregon after a very long break is not exactly something you want to do.
Mid Major Matt:
And their last game before that was against Cal State, Bakersfield who is like pulling teeth. So, I think an Oregon first half play would be the way they go here potentially as Colorado eases their way into things. And by the way also, we have to find out, and this is the thing and I know Jeff has talked about this on Twitter, we find out these things like 10 minutes before tip. The team’s coming off the COVID pauses, there are more opportunities for players to not be playing tonight.
Mid Major Matt:
And so, we might get blindsided by, “Hey, so-and-so from Colorado is not playing tonight.” And so, at least with Oregon, we know they just played. So to me, I would look at maybe like an Oregon first half here. And if a Colorado player is out then you at least have that first 20 minutes advantage with the Ducks.
TJ Rives:
All excellent points. Good advice on that. Hey, just one quick follow-up before we get back to the listeners and the viewers that are watching us here that have questions. Since we’re on the Pac-12, I see that the Arizona-Washington game is back on. That was a game that was paused.
TJ Rives:
I want to say maybe even 10 days ago, Arizona is a 24-and-a-half-point favored at the McKale Center. It’s a rare Monday night. Again, the Pac-12 is trying to make some of these games up. And again, Arizona has been very good. They did lose the game at Tennessee. This is a conference game. But much the same way kind of the theme of this Monday show, we don’t really know what to expect when teams are coming off COVID pause.
TJ Rives:
Arizona, by the way, couldn’t play the game with UCLA late last week. So now, this is a makeup game on Monday night. Either one of you with any thought here, large line for the Wildcats for sure?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, I mean, if you’re going to give me 25-ish points in a conference game, I would lean that way. I think Arizona’s just super inflated right now. This is their first game back in a while. Look, they can win every game by what they want.
Jeff Nadu:
But I just think I’m going to flip and say in a conference game against a competent basketball team or whether we think they’re competent or not, I don’t know, it’s just a lot of points to me in a conference game. Look, if Arizona is playing, I don’t know, Northern Arizona, I would lay it.
Jeff Nadu:
But against a team in conference with … You would have to imagine some sort of 110 and ability to play. I would lean with taking the dog care. I just think their numbers are too inflated.
TJ Rives:
All right, Jeff, and we have a viewer [ShowTimecast 00:28:36], I believe I have the handle right. He wants to know, “Is Arizona going to flirt with 100 here or at least get past the team total, 87-and-a-half?” What’s your take?
Jeff Nadu:
And that’s where like for me and I don’t know that, gentlemen, but when you have multiple commenters and even people saying, “Are they going to get to 100 tonight,” I mean, that’s not conceivable in a college basketball game of this deep into the season. Is their offense really good? Yeah. Okay. I’m not going to tell you it’s not. I mean, just to think they can get to 90, 100 every game is not conceivable to me.
Jeff Nadu:
So, yeah, I’m kind of to me, fade Arizona. I’ve done that since … I mentioned that Tennessee game and they haven’t played since then. So, I’m going to be looking to go against them because I think their numbers are just a little too high.
TJ Rives:
Matt, do you have a thought here including Arizona’s offense?
Mid Major Matt:
The under on Washington’s team total with all the time-off and with what Arizona has done, I mean, Washington’s offensive numbers are hideous, 322 and three-point percentage, 313 and two-point percentage, 304 in free throw percentage. I mean, Washington just scored 52 points in their last game against Utah Valley who plays decent defensive but they’re not Arizona.
Mid Major Matt:
And also by the way, this is going to be another one of those games where when Arizona misses, they’re going to get the rebound, a 2-3 zone against a really tall athletic team like Arizona. I think there’s a chance that Washington more so goes under their team total than Arizona goes over theirs. Much like what Jeff said with Purdue, I would have liked to have played Arizona’s team total over but it was just a bit too high for me.
TJ Rives:
All right, so fair enough, a little Pac-12 talk. So, we even included the West. No West Coast bias here on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Well, we have a few more minutes. Again, we love the Q&A and we got plenty of time for it. Will wants to know how do you guys feel about Towson laying two-and-a-half tonight? Top 50 in three-point percentage. They’ve covered nine times already this year. Will’s got his own stats, making his own case. Either of you, Mid Major Matt, what do you think here about Towson?
Mid Major Matt:
I like Towson. Towson is one of those teams that much like St. Louis, much like Houston, when they miss the ball, they get the ball because they’re a really good offensive rebounding team 15th and offensive rebounding percentage, 36.6%. It’s pretty good.
Mid Major Matt:
And you’ve got a Drexel team that’s coming off a COVID pause that was their own COVID pause. They have not played for three weeks it looks like since that game against Coppin State. It’s one of those things where I don’t know necessarily if the value is there now because this thing is flipped. It was much better last night when Towson was the slight dog.
Mid Major Matt:
And as I’ve talked about, I like to fade the COVID pause teams more so when they’re on the road, Drexel being at home. I do like some of these Drexel kids. But once again, this is one of those situations where 10 minutes before the game, we may find out that Wynter is not playing or we may even find out that James Butler’s not playing.
Mid Major Matt:
So if you want to play this game, I would wait till as close as possible. See if anybody’s out for Drexel. Maybe if it’s still within a reasonable range, take the Towson moneyline because now, the spread’s getting away from us here.
Jeff Nadu:
Also, keep in mind a couple of things here. If you’re going to have a COVID pause to me, this is the time or at least right around the holidays that you wanted to have it. Because while Drex was on a COVID pause, I mean Towson hasn’t played since December 22nd. So, I mean, is there much of an advantage for them?
Jeff Nadu:
We also found out this morning that or at least recently that Cameron Holden is out for the foreseeable future with a jaw injury. He is probably their most important player. The great Jordan Majewski put a stat out that they’re a net point two five points per possession worse with him off the floor on both ends. So that’s not good. Defensively, they miss him. Offensively, they miss him.
Jeff Nadu:
And Matt eloquently brought up the fact that Towson always has been a very good rebounding team. Drexel is as well. Drexel is at home here as well. I think they’re the better team. I don’t understand the love affair with teams like Towson on days like this.
Jeff Nadu:
We have to remember, if COVID pause is the only reason that you’re betting a game, you need to look a little deeper because again, Drexel has a COVID pause, you’re right, but Towson has … And they practice, it’s a little advantage. But I think being at home is helpful as well. I think Drexel is the play to me here.
TJ Rives:
Interesting. Okay. So, not officially there but again, we love the interaction with the fans. Keep the questions and answers coming. Big Man, I’m going to come right back to you because you mentioned before we began everything on the live show that because it’s a lesser slate, you want to maybe talk about a future or two. Did you have something that is juicy that’s standing out right now or just a philosophical thing or what?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I really just wanted to let people know that this is kind of that midway point of your season. So, you need to remember, there’s still a lot of value to be had in the futures market. Now, whether your future is better or not, it is something to keep an eye on.
Jeff Nadu:
You have teams that are moving around that they’re doing all sorts of things and it’s imperative that you keep up with it. Also remember, there are teams that, let’s just be honest with ourselves, team like Michigan. You can buy really low on teams like that right now because again, the truth of the matter, okay, and whether we mentioned philosophical, if we really want to get philosophical, I’ll ask Matt, yes or no, does the regular season for Michigan mean that much to be quite honest? No?
Mid Major Matt:
No.
TJ Rives:
Well, you’re asking him and then you answered. I’m not sure what you’re doing there.
Jeff Nadu:
Sorry. I thought …
TJ Rives:
Michigan lost to UCF this past weekend and we should …
Jeff Nadu:
But it doesn’t matter.
TJ Rives:
You were on that. And I know Ian was talking about that even though it was an official play that, “Hey, this is a dangerous spot going to UCF.” And you have banged on Michigan a couple of times. So, I sense a loaded question about does it matter. So, are you saying stay away from the Wolverines on the official play on a future?
Jeff Nadu:
No, I’m saying that I think obviously, when we’re betting day to day like the season matters because you have to look at what you’re doing. But in the long-term [inaudible 00:34:41], Michigan’s going to make the NCAA Tournament. Okay. Whether they lose UCF, I don’t think that means a whole lot because this team I feel like could be a lot different than the one we see in March.
Jeff Nadu:
And for me, I think there’s still a lot of things to work out. I’m taking a bit of a tough tack to that because look, Michigan with DeVante’ Jones, he may never be the player we want him to be. But at 35 to 1, this is a low 40 to 1, that’s buying low on Michigan. This is a team that has the best recruiting class in the country this season. They have arguably one of the best big men in the country and Dickinson.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t think they should be this low, 35 to 1 is a big price. Because again, people are looking at what they’ve seen from Michigan in December or November which ultimately again doesn’t mean that much. And on the flip side, you’ll see a team like Arizona who might be a little overvalued because of beating complete nobodies which I talked about outside of maybe a Michigan or an Illinois who is a good team. But for the most part, their schedule has been not great.
Jeff Nadu:
So, you have to be able to look at that stuff. And then finding teams that are just undervalued in the market, a team like BYU at 100 to 1, really good guard play, a great frontline, a coach that cares about winning by margin, and a coach and a team in a conference that’s very undervalued as a whole. That is a good conference out there.
Jeff Nadu:
So, just going back and looking at futures market not forgetting about it and keeping abreast of teams that are playing well or maybe teams that are a little overvalued or undervalued.
TJ Rives:
I don’t think we’re doing it justice because we haven’t gotten Matt in on the conversation. So he was asking you essentially whether or not Michigan’s regular season matters for a futures play because again, the premise is they’re going to be there in March. And how good is the value right now if I read the question correct. Matt, what’s your thought on that about the Wolverines just under this hypothetical?
Mid Major Matt:
I mean, I’m not ready to make grand sweeping judgments about anybody yet pretty much again across the country because as Jeff talked about, I think the rubber hits the road once we get to conference play and so you learn more about teams when they go up against squads that know them really well. And when we start getting down to … Look, I would say, I don’t know, like 20 teams of clenched … NCAA Tournament burst right now, that basically they could at short of having a miserable conference play, they’re pretty much in.
Mid Major Matt:
And so, we learn a little bit more about the fringe teams that have to push their way. And I’ll just say this along the same lines. I’m going on BetUS’s Conference Page when it comes to some of these things. And I’ll tell you, there’s some value with some teams because look, I’ll go right to like the Big East. I mean, if you don’t think Villanova is very good and Villanova is minus 140 right now, I mean, UConn at 6 to 1.
Mid Major Matt:
Providence has done really well at plus 55. Creighton has shown that when they play really well, they’re good. They’re at plus 850. I’ll tell you this, the A-10 has some value, too. I mean, I think you know, VCU, they’ve gone through so much with injuries and everything but they’ve done so much better with Ace Baldwin to make St. Bonaventure a minus 110 to win the A-10 when there’s a bunch of teams.
Mid Major Matt:
I mean, look, Richmond has disappointed everybody but Richmond has the talent to do so. Davidson could do so. Dayton could do so. St. Louis could do so. We haven’t seen really what the real St. Louis is because they’ve had COVID and they’ve had injuries. So, I’ll go along the same lines as what he’s saying that this is the perfect time to jump in on the conference futures because the teams that are undervalued now because they disappointed out of conference, that doesn’t mean they can’t go to their conference and just dominate everybody else.
Mid Major Matt:
So, there’s some odd prices that are out there right now in conference tournament futures.
Jeff Nadu:
And TJ, when you look as well, if I could just go back to the long-term look at a conference or a division winner or comment or a national title winner. You look at a team like Oklahoma. Okay. Let’s look at what we know about Oklahoma. They’re 11 and 2. They’re in unless they’re horrific in conference which is unlikely.
Jeff Nadu:
This is one of the best offense-defense teams you’ll find. And they have a coach that is very adept at going deep in the NCAA Tournament. We’re looking at an Oklahoma. You can get a price at certain spots. Because again, I think futures are one thing where you’re open to where you do it. BetUS has 90 to 1. There’s 130 to 1s. There’s 150 to 1. This is a huge price in Oklahoma.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay. This is a good basketball team that is going to get to the tournament. That’s the main thing when you bet a future …
TJ Rives:
And can I interject?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
TJ Rives:
I don’t mean to interrupt but there’s a purpose. If they go along here in the next week and win a couple of important games, what would we anticipate it brings it down to? They might become 100. They might become 75 to 1. The value becomes much less if they go win a couple of games. That’s the whole point right now.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, exactly. You can cut it in half significantly or a third or whatever. Again, that’s what you have to keep looking at this stuff every few days. And Matt made a great point about the Villanova. I’ve knocked Villanova all season. I don’t think they’re very good. And I think there are teams especially the ones he mentioned but even like a Seton Hall who haven’t had Tyrese Samuel who is probably their best defender and one of their bigs. Obiagu hasn’t played significantly over the last couple of weeks.
Jeff Nadu:
So, this team is a lot better than maybe they’ve indicated recently. They’ve started off the season 0 and 2 in conference play. Seton Hall is a really good team. So, all these things. St. John’s, how many COVID pauses has that group had? I would be looking at all sorts of different things outside of Villanova and that college because as you said, there’s value galore there.
TJ Rives:
All right, fair enough on that. Let’s go ahead and circle back to our best bets. It is a shorter card. But the best bets for tonight for Jeff Nadu include Purdue laying the points and the over total for the Texas Southern-Southern game. And Matt loves some UT Rio Grande Valley, Texas Rio Grande Valley, the Vaqueros, is that what you said, the Vaqueros getting the nine points in this matchup tonight with Sam Houston State.
TJ Rives:
All right, are we good for a Monday edition of the show? Anybody else got anything else to get off their chest before we are done? Matt, Mid Major Matt, anything else? Are we good for a Monday?
Mid Major Matt:
No, I think we’re good. I mean, just be vigilant. Look on Twitter for these last-second injuries and see if you can capitalize on some of them or hope and pray that you can hedge on some of them because we know that they’re common unfortunately.
TJ Rives:
Yeah. And again, the schools are not really under an obligation especially in colleges to be as forthcoming with this. And there are a lot of times where the coach, the sports information, people, whatever, they got it under wraps and then suddenly like you say 15 minutes before the game, so-and-so is COVID positive and not playing or didn’t test negative and can’t play.
TJ Rives:
It’s not the same as pro-sports, it’s just my point where the NFL, the NBA, etcetera, etcetera are much more stringent on what is their status earlier in the day. You can’t just do this 10 or 15 minutes before the game. Big man, anything else before we’re done on a Monday?
Jeff Nadu:
No, I’ll just tell you, make sure you hit the Like button on the video. Anytime you watch a BetUS video, hit the Like button. It helps out the channel. And look, I’ve said before, BetUS, just a really great resource. Go check it out. The sportsbook has whatever bet you want.
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, Matt mentions first half team totals. They have them. Some books don’t have those. So, make sure you’re frequenting BetUS and hit the Like button on the chat or on the videos.
TJ Rives:
And more and more of you are finding us and subscribing. Again, we are in the groove. We’re in the routine now of Monday through Friday, 1:00 Eastern Time. I like what Jeff said at the beginning of the show. We all understand the NFL is king. I work for an NFL team. These two guys are big Eagle fans. Nobody’s got Eagle stuff on today after the win over the Washington football team has basically put them in the playoffs. We’ll see.
TJ Rives:
So the NFL is King, we get it. College football is about to play their national title game coming up. And then, it is College Hoop time from here on out. And we are here for you, Monday through Friday at 1:00 Eastern Time. We will stay in the rhythm, in the routine all the way through the month of March. Hang in there for that.
TJ Rives:
Mid Major Matt, Matt Josephs, thank you. Big Man on Campus, Jeff Nadu, thank you. Good luck with your plays tonight. We look forward to seeing what’s going to happen tonight. We’ll be back to talk all about it tomorrow on the BetUS College Basketball Show. Thank you, boys.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
Mid Major Matt:
Thank you.
