TJ Rives:
[00:00:40]Well, hello there, welcome back. We are back here for a Wednesday edition of the BetUS College Basketball Show. I am the somewhat capable host of the program, TJ Rives. These are our handicappers today, Ian Cameron, and the big man on campus, Jeff Nadu, back aboard. Great to be back with both of you. We get to say happy new year to Ian because we have not had him on since we have flipped the calendar to January, more importantly, 2022. Everything all good, Ian, as you pop on for the first time in the new year?Ian Cameron:
Yeah, it is. It’s good to be back. Happy new year to everybody watching. It’s good to be back for the first time here in 2022 and great to have conference play here as well. It seems that fortunes have changed a little bit for me once conference season has started, it’s been a nice few days, but now we got to transfer it to this show and hopefully a good day with the picks that are coming your way.
TJ Rives:
We look forward to that, plenty of picks to come. Big man on campus, I have been waiting for about 14 hours to see the facial reaction, the smile, you had them on all the way with LSU on the moneyline and Kentucky last night in Baton Rouge. You said so on this show, “Crazy, crazy finish.” Give me more.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, it was a crazy finish. I’ve said before, I don’t watch a lot of the games that I bet on, I don’t know, I like to go back and watch them over, and watch condensed highlights and things like that. And I actually had to record my podcast last night and I finished it up right around the three minute to go mark. And LSU went on a 20 to two run, and I was geeking about it. I was very happy because I just felt like that was the great spot last night. And then I turned it on, I watched the end, that last minute was epic, what a great finish, yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Look, LSU, I’m going to continue to talk about, I love this team. I love them defensively; they are just tough. I mean, they’re handsy. They get their hands up, and create turnovers, and they are a fun team to watch on offense. I was a little concerned, I mean, they had a couple of really empty possessions late in the game, but they did enough over that final minute. That could have went a really bad way a couple of times and that’s the luck you have when you play a home team in college hoop. So yeah, it was a great game, fun one.
Ian Cameron:
Helps when Kentucky turns it over relentlessly in the final 30 seconds as well.
TJ Rives:
Oh, okay. So let’s just recap for those that have not seen it real quick. And by the way, Ian, you should know, Jeff and Kyle spent part of the show yesterday, once again, lamenting bad beats and the horrible Bahamas Bowl, that is still in the recesses of your brain, Jeff Nadu from Christmas Eve and Western Kentucky-
Ian Cameron:
Western Kentucky, Central Michigan, never forget it.
TJ Rives:
… football, blowing a 42-14 lead. This was a one-point lead for LSU. They have the ball, Kentucky’s going to have to more than likely foul them. It was right at the 30 second mark, right at the shot clock, they turn it over. Now, Kentucky is fast breaking on the loose ball, trying to grab the loose ball, if they are able to score in that moment, they’re ahead by one, they turn it over. At mid court, the ball is loose and LSU decides, “Okay, we’re not going to hold the ball to be foul, we’re going to go in for the dunk.”
TJ Rives:
And the dunk now, not only is good for Jeff for the moneyline, but it’s got the line covered, it’s got the spread covered, right boys? At minus two. Kentucky though, still has a chance to come to the other end, maybe tie with a three, maybe get a two, a garbage two that would cover for them. And LSU steals again, a second time in the final 20 seconds and dunks again, all is right with the world. All of that happened, and so I put it on social media, what was that? And your one-word reply was madness, my friend.
Jeff Nadu:
I will say this, and just to kind of beleaguer the point here, the difference that LSU has this year, they did not have last year, you saw it on display with the last steal and dunk. Xavier Pinson is an absolute dog defensively. He has one of the best steal percentages in the country. And if you look at that final possession where they went up five, he not only stole the basketball, but finished the dunk on the other end. He is the difference right now, one of the most important players on the team in America.
Jeff Nadu:
And again, I know Ian Cameron anchored the same [inaudible 00:04:55], in those types of games, that is why when you’re laying one and a half two, you play the moneyline. It’s a whole lot different feeling when you’re up three with the moneyline as opposed to minus two. Certain gamblers are saying, “That’s a stupid thing to do,” but at the end of the day, in certain situations, in a closed game in conference, it’s way nicer to have a moneyline as opposed to one and a half or two, where in that case last night, TJ, they go up three. At worst, we go to overtime and it’s a better reprieve. I don’t lose on a last second jump shot or something. So yeah, it was a great game, that’s what conference play is.
TJ Rives:
Ian, follow up on that finish and the strategy there of going with the moneyline versus just laying a point or a point and a half and then clinging to whatever that was at the end of LSU, Kentucky.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah. Usually with favorites two and a half points or less, as long as I can lay less than a buck 50, I’m going to take the moneyline every single time rather than laying the points, for that exact reason, that you avoid those little late game shenanigans where the worst thing you could do is lay two, two and a half, and your team wins by one. And I’ve had that happen to me before, not just once, a bunch of times, and it got to the point where I said, “I’m not going to let that happen again, we’re going to take the moneyline.”
Ian Cameron:
And by the way, great job by Will Wade to get Xavier Pinson here from Missouri. I mean, talk about great job for Pinson to get out of there when he did, from Missouri, with how bad that program’s been so far this year, but great pickup. Look, I’ve been impressed. I was impressed with that win. I’ve been slow to maybe realize the potential LSU has. I mean, I’ve bet online against them with Auburn last week, and Auburn absolutely throttled them, and I thought, “Well, here’s LSU, they’re probably going to fall off a little bit.” And then they come back and they beat Kentucky at home yesterday.
Ian Cameron:
It goes to show you, especially in a conference like the SEC, you’re going to look like crap one game and you’re going to look great the next. It’s going to be a conference where teams are going to beat up on one another, and it’s really going to be a spot driven type of conference from a handicapping standpoint. Clearly, that was an LSU spot back home, marque opponent coming into the building, and they definitely brought their best game to beat Kentucky.
TJ Rives:
No doubt. And we have an SEC game on the slate very early here that we’re about to go over on the show in just a second. One more note, 86 years young, Dale Brown, at the game last night, they finally named the court after him. It’s the Pete Maravich Assembly Center, the arena, but they renamed it Dale Brown Court last night. And what a memorable finish for LSU to beat Kentucky. Again, Dale Brown was 30 plus years as the LSU coach and had them in the final four, kind of synonymous with LSU basketball, obviously of the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s, coached Shaq, for example, as part of that, so yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Listen, Dale Brown, great, but that’s kind of wild to take Pete Maravich out. Pete Maravich is a [crosstalk 00:07:49] synonymous with that-
TJ Rives:
They’re calling it the Maravich Center, so the arena is still called that, it’s just Dale Brown Court. It’s Dale Brown Court to acknowledge him, so it’s both, because you’re right, the pistol-
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, that’s kind of wild.
TJ Rives:
Go back and watch those highlights from the early ’70s with no three-point shot while a dude’s averaging 44 a game as a shooter, not a dunker, not a rebounder, incredible, yeah. So they got all that bloodline stuff working at LSU with all the good mojo they had last night.
TJ Rives:
Let’s get to our records through last night because the big man on campus also had the Oklahoma Sooners last evening cover against Baylor. They hung in; they did get the cover as you totted on the show. So Jeff has now popped up to four games above 500 with a two and 0 night. Kyle Hunter was also on board with the Seton Hall under with Butler, Seton Hall got the win on the road at Butler in the Big East. So brings Kyle’s total to 13 in 13. And so Ian is up first today with a chance to get back towards 500, and he’s got a lot of different plays for today.
TJ Rives:
Speaking of the Big East, why don’t we get to game number one, that is in the Big East, it is a St John’s team that has been on COVID pause hosting DePaul. St. John’s comes back here now as a five-point favorite, the total at 154, both of our handicappers are on this. Ian Cameron, please begin with what you like and why.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah. I mean, this is just one of those wheelhouse situations here for me where I trust both of these teams a little bit more offensively than defensively, particularly St. John’s. When you look at it, I think you’re going to see a lot of points here, both of these teams are going to play fast. The tempo has increased significantly in the first year at DePaul for its double field, and you’ve seen this team play a lot quicker. Now, St. John’s coming off the COVID pause, you’re always worried that, is their offense going to be in rhythm? You could say that too about them defensively. Of course, one of their key cogs, Julian Champagnie, was tested positive for COVID-19, we’ll see if he’s able to suit up tonight in this game for St John’s.
Ian Cameron:
But you also look at St John’s and their results, they got a really stunning loss right before the pause against Pitt, 59-57. They lose that game outright as 11-point favorites. And they really got bogged down by Pitt who, of course, are really going to try to slow things down, they don’t want to run and gun with anybody. But you look at St. John’s results against Colgate, and Fairleigh Dickinson, and Monmouth, and games like that this year, we’ve seen them, those games go over the total, have a lot of pace. I think you’re going to see something like that here.
Ian Cameron:
And yeah, DePaul’s gone under the total in four straight games. Their offense can struggle sometimes, but I think it struggles more against some pretty good defensive teams, and they’ve face some lately when you look at it. Louisville can defend a little bit. Butler’s a solid defensive team, Providence certainly is, and you’re going to just struggle to score when you’re playing those kind of teams, DePaul. I think they’ll find the going a little bit easier here. The last meeting with these teams last year was at 88-83 final score, got into the 170s. So looking over the total here in the 150s was pretty straightforward decision for me. TJ is muted.
TJ Rives:
Yes, my bad. Very good on that, Ian. Big man, your thought on this and what is your play?
Jeff Nadu:
It wouldn’t be a show without a mute from TJ.
Ian Cameron:
That’s true.
Jeff Nadu:
So lot to unpack here, okay. Ian mentioned St. John’s coming off a COVID plus I want to make this very clear to everybody watching this show today, if Champagnie does not play, I’m going to cash out of this game, I’m not playing it. Again, there’s most word that he’s going to be in there, he’s back. According to him, he’s been practicing and he’s good to go, but this team is totally different without Champagnie. And go look at the Pittsburgh game and you’ll see what makes him different. When he plays though, this offense is one of the best in the country. 82 points per game, they play one of the faster tempos in America. And DePaul plays fast as well and has been willing to run with their opponents.
Jeff Nadu:
You look at last year’s game, which Ian alluded to; St. John’s scored 88 points. Keep in mind, over the first 10 minutes of the second half, they only scored nine points, and still scored 88 points. So this offense is very good. Posh Alexander looks healthy as well. Pinzon’s been very good for St. John’s. I like this offense a lot. They’re very much a Mike Anderson typical team, go quick, it’s very downhill based, getting it to the teeth of the defense and either getting to the line or finishing at the rim, that’s what you want, that’s the kind of team you want to have. As well as I think they’re a bit better defensively, I’m not going to say they’re a great defensive team.
Jeff Nadu:
And look, the truth of the matter is, from what I understand, St. John’s did have a pretty bad issue with coronavirus throughout their team. So I don’t know if they’ll have a full complement tonight, but the most important name you need to see is Mr. Champagnie. He’s one of the best players in the country, one of the best players in this conference, and you need him in there. The truth is when he’s in there, 82, 88, 83, 75, 77, 87 91, 119, this offense goes and is very good.
Jeff Nadu:
For me, I’m just going to signal; I like St. John’s college basketball odds. It’s not that I don’t like DePaul’s, I think David Jones is really good, and I get Ian’s point on a total, but I don’t want to be sitting here, 84-66, and I miss the over here or something. I don’t know if that works out from a number stand, but I think it does. But yeah, I don’t want to be sitting here with DePaul not giving me anything. There’s not a better game you want to be at home against DePaul all for pause. Good spot for the Johnnies. I’m just going to take their team total here, 79 and a half.
TJ Rives:
We have fun with each other. I helped the Philadelphia guy that 84 and 66 does not go over 154, you can look it up and work it out while we continue on. Let’s do lock it in though on what these guys have. Ian Cameron is on the over 154. And again, disclaimer, big man, if Champagnie is not playing, you’re out on this game, but if he’s in you like the St John’s team total in this matchup for a Big East game. And again, St. John’s has now not played a game since December 18th because of COVID-19, so what will they look like in this game, especially early? We wonder, I do know this-
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind-
TJ Rives:
Yeah, go ahead.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind, Champagnie is really important to this team, really important. If you ever watched last year, he was a kid that when they didn’t have him, they were a totally different team. And Mike Anderson has struck gold with this guy. One of the chatter is saying he’s the best St. John’s player since Shamorie Ponds. Look, I think he’s the best player since Rysheed Jordan out of Philadelphia who was an absolutely terrific player at St. John’s as well. They’ve had some great players over the years, and he’s important, really important.
TJ Rives:
Okay. So there are our plays officially on the Big East game. Let’s move things to the Southeastern Conference where the Florida Gators, it’s another thing, they’ve been on the COVID pause as well. They are home with Alabama and they are laying a point and a half with the total at 149 and a half. Alabama, again, has had some excitement, they won a game on basically a neutral floor, but it’s all the way up in Seattle that they beat Gonzaga earlier in the year. They lost to my Memphis Tigers, but they’ve now bounced back and won a game with Tennessee, a rivalry game in the Southeastern Conference. So this is a game now against Florida in Gainesville. We’re back to the big man on campus, Jeff Nadu, what do you like and why from this matchup?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I like Florida here. I think this is a really similar spot to LSU last night. We got a lot of good things working for us here with Florida. They’re at home, they’re getting Bama team that I think it’s got a pretty tough matchup here, quite honestly. I know people will point to last year’s matchup with these two teams, Alabama pummeled Florida, it’s that simple. This is a totally different Florida team, and I’m going to tell you why. Mike White, you can say what you want about him, I’m not his biggest fan, there are a couple things I don’t like about what he does. But when this team runs and plays with tempo, they’re really tough to beat.
Jeff Nadu:
And you look at the difference between this year’s and last year’s team, they went out and made major strides in the transfer market. I thought they had one of the better years from a transfer standpoint in acquiring really good talent that makes sense on this team. I think Appleby is a great point guard. I like Castleton a lot, but if it’s adding the perimeter depth, perimeter defenders, perimeter offensive players, all very important to have. And when we look at Fleming, the kid out of Charleston Southern, he can give you a 20 points a game off the bench, he’s been huge for them.
Jeff Nadu:
Their big name though, Brandon McKissic, and in this game, he’s going to be a big get for them. He comes from Kansas City who, if you know anything about UMKC, Billy Donlon, the coach there, very defensive minded, McKissic is a dog on the defensive end. And this has been one of the reasons you look at Florida, they have allowed a very low rate from the three-point line, which is huge against an Alabama team that wants to shoot the three. I think this is a totally different team in Florida this year and they’re in a terrific spot. They’re not a team that I think gets a lot of love in the market. We know Alabama does.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t know how good Alabama is. I don’t like their front court defense either. I think Castleton going to have a big game here. They have a kid, Alabama, Bediako down low, he’s slow, he’s young, I think Castle can really school him, not only on the block, but in the perimeter as well. I like Florida here in front of their home crowd, they get the job done and beat Alabama.
TJ Rives:
In front of those Rowdy Reptiles for the matchup in Gainesville. Ian Cameron, a thought here on Alabama and Florida if no official play.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, I didn’t bet the game, but it’s a very good game, no doubt about that. I’m looking forward to it. And Jeff’s right about Florida’s three-point defense, very good, 32nd in the country in terms of three-point field goal defense. And you’re looking at an Alabama team that can light you up from the perimeter, we know they’ve got that kind of great shooting firepower from out there, no question about that. So Florida might be able to match up there. It’s again, keeping Quinerly, keeping Jaden Shackelford in check, that’s going to be critical here for Florida tonight in this game.
Ian Cameron:
You mentioned Colin Castleton, he’s an outstanding player in the low post. And I like Bediako here, Charles Bediako, not just because he’s Canadian, I think he’s going to be a good player in time, but as Jeff said, he’s young and he’s got a very difficult matchup here in this game. And Alabama looked for all that love, Jeff said that the Alabama Crimson Tide, they get a lot of love in the betting markets. It’s true, there’s really not a point spread bargain these days to bet Alabama, the time to make money with Alabama was what I did, in [inaudible 00:18:30] first year. They were undervalued, I knew they made a very good hire, that the program would be improving under him. But now they’ve got this team power rated like a really strong top upper level, upper echelon, elite basketball team, and the result of that is Alabama’s now gone five straight games, guys, where they haven’t covered. They’re O in five against the Spread going into this game, so they do look like a little bit of an overvalued commodity. So I didn’t bet the game, but I see the reasons Jeff looks Florida.
Jeff Nadu:
And keep in mind as well, it’s not just three-point, as he said, percentage, which that’s a great point, but even attempt rate. I mean, out of 358 teams, Florida is seventh in America, in attempt rate. I mean, they just don’t give you much from the three-point line. I think that’s really helpful in a game like this. We also have to remember how tough it is to win on the road in this conference. It’s very difficult and if you’re going to give me a Florida team in front of the… Whatever you called them, I forget what you mentioned-
TJ Rives:
The Rowdy Reptiles, yes-
Jeff Nadu:
There you go, yeah.
TJ Rives:
… That is student section, right on top of the visiting bench as well.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I’m going to be on them here [crosstalk 00:19:35]-
Ian Cameron:
Keep an eye on Noah Gurley, off the bench was outstanding. One of the reasons they survived Tennessee was he gave them terrific offense in that game unexpectedly. He’s not usually in their starting five. He’s a good player at Furman too, keep an eye on him tonight. But you got to bring it on the road now. It’s nice to have that offense at home, bring it on the road and they’re going to need it I think tonight.
TJ Rives:
And it’s worth repeating again, you’ve got a team that’s been playing. Alabama has played a couple of games in the last 10 days or so, with the loss to Davidson in Birmingham but then the win against Tennessee. Florida has not played since December 22nd because of the COVID pause and they lost the Ole Miss game that’ll have to be rescheduled week because of that. Nonetheless, the big man on campus, as we lock it in is on the Gators and he’s doing exactly what he said at the beginning of his play, he’s doing the same thing he did for the LSU game because it’s a one or a one and a half-line, we have it one and a half on the bet US line. He’s going money line. Don’t mess around with the point or the point and a half, just take the Gators to win at home. That is Jeff’s play for this one.
TJ Rives:
Let’s move on and go with a couple of teams. Interesting, out of the SoCon, out of the Southern Conference, including a VMI team, Virginia Military Institute that we’ve talked about on this show before, East Tennessee State, the Buccaneers. No, not my Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the ETSU Buccaneers, laying two and a half in this one, the total at 145 and a half. Ian Cameron, what is the play for you on this matchup tonight?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah> We’re going back to some teams and some concepts today on the show for me with the picks that have worked for me, and VMI has been one of them. We’ve cashed back to back with this Keydets squad against Wofford, Furman, outright underdog wins for this team. Playing extremely well, and they’ve covered six straight going into this game against East Tennessee State. When you look at it, VMI, I think playing their best basketball, very, very efficient offensively, I’ve really liked what scene from them. They’re good usually as a road dog, and that’s been the case lately. I think they’re going to cause some problems for ETSU. Look, I don’t love this ETSU defense. They gave up 79 points, 50% shooting to UNC Asheville. Last game against Chattanooga, they got absolutely shredded, 30-point beat down at the hands of the Mocs, 82 to 52.
Ian Cameron:
I don’t like the way this team’s trending defensively. To be honest with you, I think they miss Steve Forbes a little bit. And look at what his Wake team did last night against Florida State, terrific win for them. I don’t think East Tennessee State’s quite as good as they’ve been in the past and I’m just going to ride this red hot VMI team. I think there’s a very good potential for them to win this game outright, the plus two and a half points is a bonus. So we’re going to ride the hot commodity right now. They’ve covered six straight, I think they match up well, VMI plus two and a half.
TJ Rives:
So he loves the spot there. Jeff Nadu, any thoughts?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I mean, when you also look at personnel right now, I think one of the reasons ETSU has been poor is they just can’t stop opposing bigs, they just don’t have the personnel right now. They’re not a real big team, to begin with, but it’s really hurt them that Charlie Weber, one of their bigs has been out recently. They just don’t have a ton of front-court depth. And that’s not a real ideal scenario tonight when you face, I think probably the best big in this conference in Jake Stephens. I mean, he is terrific around the rim. Ian’s right, I like VMI, one of my favorite teams over the last couple of years against the number. They make their free throws, they’re good from the three-point line, and they don’t turn it over. When you were a dog in college basketball, if you do those three things, don’t turn it over, make threes, and hit your free throws, you can stand a lot of games.
Jeff Nadu:
I had VMI against Wake, I had him against Wofford. I like VMI a lot, I don’t have any issues. The only thing that kept me off joining Ian here, and it really is just a personal thing, I played VMI last year against East Tennessee State, a very similar spot, very similar offense, East Tennessee State coming into the game was 30% from three, they made 16 of 30 from three. It was just a really incredible shooting night. I have nightmares about that game and I’m kind of just scared off of it. But I think VMI team total makes a lot of sense here and I do like them here and plus the points, I agree with it.
Ian Cameron:
Look, they’re giving up 30% by the way, three-point defense this year, VMI, 60th in the… the perimeter defense, it wasn’t there that night, to Jeff’s point, it’s been there this season. So you’re going to have to hope tonight’s one of those that [crosstalk 00:24:04]-
Jeff Nadu:
I think it was there, they just-
Ian Cameron:
… Doesn’t shoot the lights out.
Jeff Nadu:
The team just couldn’t miss. I watched the game, it was crazy. They just couldn’t miss every shot-
TJ Rives:
Yeah, it’s some nights-
Jeff Nadu:
… They hit fadeaway, nutty shots, it was wild.
TJ Rives:
Some nights you’re going to have those and we’ll see what happens in this one tonight as VMI gets the two and a half. And Ian Cameron says, thank you very much, that’s his official play. He is on the key debts for this matchup this evening in the Southern Conference. Let’s move to the big 10 for the next game on our slate on the Bet US College Basketball Show for Wednesday that is Michigan State and Nebraska, with Michigan State leading or laying 15 and a half. It’s a top 25 Michigan State team against a Nebraska team that’s kind of been up and down, 500 record, 500-ish record, the total at 148 and a half. Let’s go back to Ian Cameron because you have the official play on this game. What do you like and why on this one?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, you know what? This looks like a night where Nebraska… And look, Fred Hoiberg’s Nebraska team, they’ve been shredded defensively before this year. They’re going to have issues tonight. Michigan State’s a terrific transition offense, who’s at a horrible transition defense? Oh yeah, Nebraska. So it’s a absolutely perfect hand-in-glove type of fit here for Michigan State probably to score a bunch of points. Fred Hoiberg already sounding the excuse machine, there’s a great quote I read actually this morning about him talking about it saying, “If we don’t get back, we’re going to be dead meat in this game,” or something along those lines. He’s worried, he’s petrified and he should be, about his team’s ability to get back and transition defensively, something they’ve not been doing at an adequate level in their past games this year.
Ian Cameron:
So I think it’s going to be a night where Michigan State… Look, we’ve in Nebraska give up 87 to Ohio State, they’ve given up 99 to Auburn. Somehow, Michigan, I’m still wondering how they did this, scored 102 points on this Nebraska team. So Michigan State, by the way, more than any recent year under Tom Izzo, they’ve got the guard play, they’ve got the firepower, they’ve got the balance, to really play that attack you and be lethal and transition type of basketball team, and I think that’s going to be trouble here for Nebraska. I do like the over in this game, the question is, can you get enough from Nebraska? I think you can. When you look at Michigan State at home, they haven’t exactly completely shut down opposing teams, and when they have, they’ve played Penn State, they’ve played High Point.
Ian Cameron:
I think Nebraska, certainly, they may still Trey McGowens who’s still out and not going to be back anytime soon. But I think the Nebraska side will be able to score some points here in this game, and at least enough, if you get them in the high 60s and approaching 70, which I think they could, I think Michigan State will take care of the rest here in this game, over 148 and a half. You’re going to get plenty of pace here. You’re talking about two teams in the top 100 in terms of tempo as well, so over 148 and a half here in this big 10 matchup for me.
TJ Rives:
Michigan State Spartans have won seven straight. That includes a couple of conference wins over Minnesota and over Northwestern both on the road, big man, what do you think here about this spot for Michigan State?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, it’s funny because what I was just saying about how you back big dogs is, do you not turn it over, do you make threes, and do you get to the free-throw line? Nebraska, those two of those three, it’s a lot of points. I don’t know what it’s been and I really think a lot of it has to do with just point guard play. I just haven’t been that real enamored with Michigan State the last couple of years. I thought Tyson Walker would be a bit better, and he’s been good from an assist standpoint, doesn’t give them much of a scoring option, which, I guess you’d prefer both but at least getting one is helpful. It’s a lot of points delay, I get it. The comments from Hoiberg are not ideal and it seems like every time Nebraska has an opportunity to maybe do something particularly at home, they always fail to get the job done.
Jeff Nadu:
Verge, I like, I think he could be the difference in how they maybe stay in this game. If he get a 25-point effort, then they could hang around. I’m not real enamored in laying double digits in Conference, it was one of the reasons I took Oklahoma last night, I liked Washington the other night. I’ll root for Ian here, if I had to play it, you give me a free bet, I’d lean maybe but over the years it’s been a bad bet to back this group. When they quit, it seems like they quit, so.
TJ Rives:
All right, the official play again is Ian Cameron and that is on the over of 148 and a half for Michigan State, Nebraska, with Michigan State probably doing most of that damage at home at the Breslin Center. Coming up, let’s stay in the ACC as we rock along here through the slate and through the schedule, this is Pitt and Louisville, interesting for a couple of reasons because, again, there’s been some COVID pause involved, for both of these teams. Pitt comes in as a 12 and a half point road doggy here, the total at 130. So that’s a much lower total here. We’re back to Ian Cameron and what the play might be.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, this is me picking on Louisville again, which has been, for the most part, it’s worked out well. I mean, I’ve basically been anti-Louisville, I think in every recent game they’ve played. I think I stayed off them with Western Kentucky and I probably should have been on Western Kentucky, but I didn’t take them in that game. But I went against them with DePaul, I went against them with Wake Forest on this, both of those were on this show. I took the three with Georgia Tech against Louisville on Sunday and it was a push at the end of the day. I’m going to dare Louisville to win by a big margin and I’m not convinced they can right now. And say what you will about Pitt. We talked early in the season and Jeff and I both faded Pitt quite a bit early in the season, telling about the mass exodus, the problems with the program, was Jeff capable, just losing his grip on steering this program in the right direction?
Ian Cameron:
I think there’s obviously still personnel issues, and there’s no question, you match up these two lineups and rosters, you’re going to take Louisville’s every single day. But one thing you keep getting from Pitt right now, they’re playing good defense, they’re playing hard every single night and they’re finding ways to stay in games. And against a Louisville team that can go into scoring droughts. A Louisville team that sometimes treats the basketball like a hand grenade too often, that goes in and out of these funks during games, that keep teams around, that could be trouble being asked to lay 12 and a half here and game. Look at Pitt here the last seven games, six and one against the number, they lost by one at home to Minnesota, at Virginia, 14 and a half point dog, they lose by a single point, they lose only by four against Monmouth, and the Monmouth a quality team out of the Metro Atlantic.
Ian Cameron:
They beat St. John’s 59 up. St. John’s again, dealing with COVID issues, Champagnie out, I get it, but still, outright win as dogs against St. John’s, Notre Dame, a one-point loss in their last game at home against the Irish. I just don’t know if Louisville’s got the kind of just synchronicity right now at both ends of the floor, to be able to be asked to win this game by this kind of margin against a Pitt team that, say what you will about how undermanned they are, they’re giving it a good, honest, hard work and effort every single night, and if they give you that tonight, just might be enough to keep inside what I think is a little bit of a high number, too high, in my opinion for Louisville. So we’re going to go with the Pitt Panthers here plus the 12 and a half.
TJ Rives:
Okay. Again, Pitt lost on a last-second shot at home to Notre Dame late last week. Louisville again had the COVID pause, but they also have a recent win over Georgia Tech late last week as well. Big man any quick thoughts?
Ian Cameron:
[crosstalk 00:31:29] too, TJ, I wanted to mention that because I’ve forgot, and I wanted to mention it. Louisville just played Sunday. Pitt has had a lot of time to get themselves ready for this game, focus on preparing for Louisville. Louisville’s got to turn around from the Georgia Tech game Sunday, and now, three days later, here they are playing Pitt in this game and I believe they play Florida State on deck. So this is not at all a spot that I’m trusting Louisville one bit by 12 and a half.TJ Rives:
That is correct. Yeah, that’s Florida State on the weekend. Jeff, any quick thought?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, actually, I do want to quickly say something about Pitt. One of the reasons they were bet against early on was the personnel problems this team had. You look at it slowly, but surely, people are coming back, Jamarius Burton’s back and he’s helped them hang around in games and win games they shouldn’t. I’m going to tell you why I think Pitt could win this game tonight. They’re going to get back, I feel Hunter or I feel Horton as well. Now I want to give you a little bit, and this is something to keep in the back of your brain, remember I told you this, he was reinstated after he was involved with a situation where, according to an eyewitness account, and according to the police officer, he struck a police officer off-campus. That was pulled, the charges were pulled due to the fact of the cop not showing up to the court date and the charges were dropped. He was reinstated.
Jeff Nadu:
Now, this is important. The charges are according to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette said to be filed again because the police officer is going to file them. According to him, there is videotape of this incident, we might not see Horton for a long time, but you’re going to see him tonight in some aspect. He may help you win a game like this, as opposed to just hanging around. He, in my opinion, is the best overall player on this roster. He gives you something on both ends. If you get Horton for a couple of games, all he needs is for them to hang around tonight, that’s all that matters. Louisville, I think is a dead dog right now, they’re all over the place. There was a similar spot last night where NC State was laying or getting double digits against Vo-Tech. I don’t know why Vo-Tech was laying double digits. NC State won the game. I think Pitt, if nothing, hangs around here, they’re getting healthy and getting in games.
TJ Rives:
The play is Ian Cameron’s official play and it is on the Pitt Panthers getting the 12 and a half as the ACC road dog against the Louisville Cardinals. One more game to go before we get to your Q&A. A couple of you have already weighed in with some questions, get one more or two more in in the live chat, our guys will see it. That game is a big 12 game. We saw Oklahoma winning the big 12 last night with the victory over… Or Baylor, I’m sorry, with the victory over Oklahoma. We also saw Texas get a big win over Kansas State last night in the big 12. This is Texas Tech and Iowa State. Iowa State took their first loss of the year against Baylor on the weekend. Cyclones back at home, will there be some Hilton magic at the Hilton Coliseum in Ames? They are laying four against the Red Raiders, the total at 127. We’re back to Ian again, he’s on the buffet again with another play. What’s the play here, Bobano?
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, this is another team that we’ve had before on this show this season with winning results. We’ve cash tickets with Iowa State already on this show and we’re going to hope to do it again tonight with them laying now four in this game. And man, I was on the fence with this game. Do I keep it as official at minus four? I almost didn’t and maybe I’ll regret that, but I’m going to stick with it here at minus four. I think it’s a clear home run spot for Iowa State, Hilton Coliseum, we know how strong that home court is. I thought their effort against Baylor and I had the points with Iowa State in that game over the weekend was very, very commendable in that game. And I like the way TJ Otzelberger got this team playing. I think they’ve been very, very solid from what I’ve seen so far. At times, their offense, you’d like to see it improve, but they’re really defending at a level that I don’t even know if they’ve played this kind of defense under Steve Prohm at all, Iowa State.
Ian Cameron:
I mean, they’ve been absolutely terrific. They’re seventh in the country and adjusted defensive of efficiency this year, they’ve been outstanding at the defensive end of the basketball court. It’s been very, very impressive to watch from them, no question. And what I like for Iowa State too, is the matchup works well I think for them tonight. Keep in mind, Terrence Shannon, a key guard for Texas Tech, not going to play tonight and ball pressure is a big part of Iowa State’s MO. And if they’re going to have issues at the guard spot, and you’re without Shannon there, you could be running into some problems here, turnovers, Iowa State using that to fuel their offense.
Ian Cameron:
So I don’t know if this is the greatest match up here for Tech, they’re going on the road, they’ve not been good long term on the road> When you match up strength to schedules too, with these two teams, Iowa State is definitely… They’ve cut their teeth on a very, very tough schedule, they’ve played the likes of Xavier, they’ve played the likes of Creighton, they’ve played Baylor of course, over the weekend, Iowa, who they drilled in this building earlier this year as well. So I like what I’m seeing from the Iowa State Cyclones here. And look, they haven’t even gotten to Minnesota transfer really to get going yet, Gabe Kalscheur either. If he really gets his game the way he’s capable of, then definitely Iowa State’s going to become even more dangerous. A lot of the money’s come in here on Iowa State. I think this was like pick them or minus one, it’s up to minus four. I almost put this one on the cutting room floor, but I’m going to stay intact here with Iowa State as an official play even at minus four.
TJ Rives:
I had a big win by Kansas on the road last night in the big 12 as well, Kansas at one point missed 20 shots in a row in the first half and yet still came back to win. So conference play underway, Texas Tech is the road team here in Ames, Iowa against Iowa State. Jeff Nadu in any thought on this big 12 game.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, real quick, he mentioned Shannon’s out. He’s been out, which he alluded to. Also not going to have Kevin McCullar tonight, Batcho, Calhoun, all depth players. McCullar, not a depth player, probably their best player, he’s out with coronavirus protocol as far as I know. So they’re going to be down to seven players. We saw this last night with K-State. Look, K-State hung around for the first half, but Texas just continued to build on the lead in the second half and just had more bodies than they did.
Ian Cameron:
Listen, I have no issue taking Iowa State, especially at home here. You’re only laying four, pretty good foul shooting team. This is a very similar spot, the only difference is, you’re only laying four as opposed to eight, eight and a half. So yeah, I have no issue, especially off of loss. I think it’s a good spot for Iowa State. I’m just going to kind of keep looking to fade or have thoughts on fading teams without their full… It’s hard to play with seven players against a team like Iowa State. I mean, it just is, at home, it’s rough for Tech here. And there’s nothing to be ashamed of. But, TJ, look, last night, K-State struggled, West Virginia over the weekend lost in a blowout, so this is a tough thing to do for any college team.
TJ Rives:
Yeah, being undermanned, there is no doubt. Let’s lock it in the official play for Ian Cameron is on, Iowa State here, and he’s laying the points, he’s laying the four in this matchup. So again, a bevy be of games that we have gone over. We’ve got time for a couple of moments and a couple of questions to go over what some of you are wanting to know about… Will, who’s watching us in the live chat says, “Hey guys, thanks for the solid content. He says, “Thoughts on UNC Asheville getting seven and a half points.” He loves them as a three-point shooting team. I see Jeff making faces. No, no, on Asheville tonight?
Jeff Nadu:
No, no, I don’t love them. I actually really like Campbell and they’re not going to move the needle from a statistic standpoint, but again, I’ve said this many times before, once non-con play ends, these stats don’t matter. They don’t mean at all anything. Campbell, I think is one of the better teams in the big south and I think they’re going to be a really tough defense team. They really slow pace. I think they’re really pretty solid offensively with Carralero and Ricky Clemons. It’s not a bad price, but remember, he mentioned the three-point defense that Asheville’s been good at, Campbell doesn’t really shoot threes so that’s not really a huge thing here. I would lean Campbell if you’re asking me, but hey, if you’ve had success with Asheville, have at it.
Ian Cameron:
Yeah, I’ll back that up, three-point attempts for Campbell, 19 per game, overall field goal attempts 56, so what does that tell you? 37 two-point attempts, 19 three-point attempts for Campbell. So a lot of their damage is done in the interior and that could be something that makes them a better fit here against Asheville.
Jeff Nadu:
Asheville also shoots a lot of threes offensively and only makes 31.9% of them, not a real good kind of thing. And when you look at who they played, I mean, anybody they step up against, for the most part, they’ve gotten waxed. They got by Tennessee-Martin, I mean, not a good basketball team either. So yeah, I’m not running to lay it on the road or get someone on the road in Buies Creek, hard place to play. I would lean Campbell personally.
Ian Cameron:
I think we’ve got issues with TJ here, Jeff, so you and I are going have to-
Jeff Nadu:
Why? He’s sleeping. We’re boring you.
Ian Cameron:
I was going to mention, and I’m sure when he comes back, he’ll mention this, Davidson and St. Joe’s, I think somebody asked about?
Jeff Nadu:
Yes.
Ian Cameron:
There’s a couple of people that asked. If I could just say one thing, a team to really keep your eye on, and I know because I’m in this area, this Billy Lange St. Joe group, there’s a lot of positive thinking around this team. They’ve really looked really solid. They were terrific against Richmond, beat Temple and Penn, which, if you’re from this area, that’s what you want to do, big five teams. St. Joe’s has Jordan Hall, who’s been awesome for them. I really like what I’ve seen out of this group, not only on the defensive end but offensively as well. The thing that kept me off, Ian, in this game was, I saw there was a possibility that Davidson would be without Foster Loyer tonight, and if you know anything about Davidson, terrific offensive team over the years. They have the number one, three-point offense in America.
Ian Cameron:
And there was talk that Loyer wasn’t going to pass protocol. He, in my estimation, is the best shooter in the country, it’s that simple. This kid is a marksman, 52% from three. He’s in there tonight, so I kind of am scared off, but St Joe’s tough. I think it’s a good game to watch. I think it’s a high-scoring game. I’d lean over if I play anything. St. Joe’s has been tough, I’ve been happy with this group.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, that’s my bet over the total. This almost made it on the sheet or on the official plays for me for the show, very close. The only concern here is Davidson, we know methodical, but man, are they efficient. What they lack in pace, they make up for it with offensive efficiency. They’re extremely efficient. Look at it, just continues to be that way this year as well when you look at the numbers they’re putting up. Remember they beat Alabama 79, 78. They’ve scored basically good for the 70s in a lot of their games, shooting at a high percentage. This is a tough game from a side perspective. I’m not stepping in front of Davidson here, their nine-game win streak, they’ve covered every point spread during that stretch. But St. Joe’s, to what Jeff said, Billy Lange’s got this St. Joe’s Hawks team turning a real corner, playing well, and I think you’re going to see them potentially give Davidson a game tonight on their home floor.
Jeff Nadu:
So it’s tough to make a case for me for either side, St. Joe’s does play with pace, but they’re much improved defensively, that’s another thing that scared me, because I lost an over with St. Joe’s on this show against Richmond, and it pissed me, Richmond just couldn’t make anything in that game and I was stunned how good the defense was for St Joe’s, and it cost me an over there. I’m worried it may be cost me one here, but I still bet it, I still like it though, over 142 with these two teams, Davidson and St. Joe’s.
TJ Rives:
Guys, way to persevere on. I don’t know what happened with the gremlin, but the computer is back. So I am back, so I’m good, so I caught the tail end of that. Did you guys go ahead in my absence there for a minute or two? I don’t think you got to North Carolina and Notre Dame. We got one more viewer wanting to know about that.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I wanted to hit on this, this is a fascinating game. So I’ve been skeptical to believe this play lately from Notre Dame. I mean, they beat Kentucky, then they lose to neutral, Indiana, I mean, in-state team, nothing wrong with that, and then they beat up on a couple of cupcakes, and then beat Pitt by one, which as we’ve said, Pitts a lot better than they were before the season or at the beginning of the season.
Jeff Nadu:
So I’m kind of buying in a little bit to Notre Dame, I mean, defensive they’ve looked good, and now, as we know, guys, look at this number, this screams Notre Dame to me, screams Notre Dame. And when you look at Notre Dame, there’s a lot to like here. We also throw in the fact, how does North Carolina score a lot of the time? Ian, one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. This is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country in Notre Dame. I got to tell you for this person, I would play Notre Dame here, if you’re asking me.
TJ Rives:
All right, Ian.
Ian Cameron:
A couple of potential injuries too, for the Tar Heels too there, in terms of COVID protocol and injuries, so keep your eye on that. I kind of lean the other way North Carolina, but I don’t love it. [inaudible 00:44:43] points on the road, although they’re two true road games that they won were Georgia Tech and Charleston, so you could argue that maybe this is going to be a little bit tougher. Notre Dame is playing defense. By the way, what’s happened to Prentiss Hubb for Notre Dame? What has happened to this guy? This guy, early in his career with Notre Dame, was a pretty good player, looked like he was going to blossom into something strong. He can barely find minutes on the floor now, he’s been that poor for Notre Dame. And their offense definitely is the concern here. This actually might be an under, to be honest with you, from a total standpoint. I’d lean that way, I’d lean UNC, but I don’t love it by any stretch.
TJ Rives:
All right, fair enough, there on the Q&A. Let’s circle back to the games that we do have official plays from both Ian and from Jeff. And again, I won’t go over all of them, but the guys are both on the St. John’s DePaul game, with Jeff taking the St John’s team total again with the disclaimer, the disclaimer of Champagnie is not playing, he’s out. Jeff is out [crosstalk 00:45:39]-
Ian Cameron:
Someone in our chat say he’s in, so it’s looking like he’s [crosstalk 00:45:42]-
TJ Rives:
The latest is that he is and at some point [crosstalk 00:45:45] come in, yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
I will say, Andy Katz has reported two or three different times that a player is in and then they don’t play. So I would imagine he’s in, according to him, he’s been practicing in the gym 24 hours, so I think he’ll be in there. So I think that’s good info.
TJ Rives:
And again, Ian is on the over, in that same game. Ian also going with a couple of underdogs, as you can see there, and his laying points with Iowa State. Jeff on Florida on the money line in that great SCC match up with Alabama, that’s going to be a dandy game for this evening in the Southeastern Conference and nationally with Alabama in the top 25. Guys, any final thoughts here for a Wednesday before we’re good and before we’re done.
Ian Cameron:
Just good evening to everybody. Enjoy the games and good luck tonight, and we’ll be back with you tomorrow. And I like Thursdays, Thursdays a little bit more mid-major action taking center stage in college basketball, so looking forward to that.
TJ Rives:
Big man, anything else?
Jeff Nadu:
No, I agree, good luck tonight and we’ll be back tomorrow. Listen, it’s important, share the show. Tell somebody that you think might like it to check it out. Retweeted on Twitter. The fastest way to grow an audience is by telling other people. This is free content folks, all we ask you to do is hit the like button and tell people about it and go check out BetUS. I’ve said it’s a great book, they offer pretty much everything you can want as a college gambler. So thanks for watching and appreciate it.
TJ Rives:
Great stuff and again, we’re growing the audience. We’re here Monday through Friday, 1:00 Eastern Time, from here on out all through the merry month of March, which we cannot wait for. So find us, find us weekdays at the same time for the insight and for the advice. For Ian Cameron and Jeff Nadu, I’m TJ Reeves. Good luck with the games tonight and thank you for watching the BetUS College Basketball Show.
Jeff Nadu:
Good luck, Everybody.
Ian Cameron:
Thank you.
